SG

nyse25

excellent way to go to prison, ive lived in SG for over a year a decade ago

Forest_City_Frolfer

There's still a lot of issues with this one before I'd be willing to touch them. Net Loss Narrowed to -62.6M (or 70M including their loss on currency translation) Gross Revenue is up Y/Y from 86.2M to 90.4M but Net Revenue is flat at 74.5M so their excuse tax burden increased, indicating lower selling prices. Gross Margins are down Y/Y from 24.1M to 21.5M which is terrible. Gross Margins are less than half their SG&A at 44.1M which are 3M higher than last year. Which again, not good Their operating loss actually increased this year, they just had less one off expenses. They have a large cash reserve of 371M which covers all their Total liabilities at 348M Cash flow is even more miserable 45.5M in negative cash flow from operations Almost all their cash came from Issuances of Stock and Warrants of 374M, as well as redemption of short term investments of 19M This is still an absolute dumpster fire of a company.

MDoc84

I actually used to work at Aurora in the finance department. We used to joke about these Adjusted EBDITA amounts. I compared it to if I jumped on the scale in the morning and said, "If I subtract the pizza I ate and the beer I drank, I would be an Olympic athlete!" There are lots of SG&A costs lumped into OG&L (This is public knowledge) that really shouldn't be added back in EBDITA. But its a non-GAAP measure so they can get away with it. To your point, they're just regular expenses that are part of doing business. Its just a shell game.

Chrizzle87

Great post! I see you modeled revenue and earnings shrinking at the same -5% rate. However, ceteris paribus, a revenue decline of 5%, leads to a far greater decline in earnings. It would be a buy for me if the new CEO announced to massively cut SG&A by using AI. Cheers -

Chrizzle87

Great post! I see you modeled revenue and earnings shrinking at the same -5% rate. However, **c.p.** a revenue decline of 5% leads to a far greater decline in earnings. It would be a buy for me if the new CEO declared to massively cut SG&A by replacing labor with AI.

Smithaveli

I feel like you completely missed the point by bringing up SG CAVA and CMG. Those places are definitely a higher tier when it comes to quality of ingredients than Chipotle, so why does Chipotle think they can charge the same? That’s the disconnect. We not paying 15 bucks for 8 dollars worth of burnt chicken and hard-as-rock rice anymore BECAUSE places like CAVA, SG, and CMG showed up. Weird to defend corporations just cuz you wanna flex you ain’t a broke boy smh

hudboyween

This sub and Reddit has an insane hate boner for chipotle. The fast casual dining segment has been crushed this year due to macroeconomic trends. SG, CAVA, CMG are priced to perfection right now and are a multibagger opportunity. Same store sales trends will turn around when the economy turns around. BUT THE BURRITOS ARE 15 DOLLARS!!! A Big Mac meal is 15 dollars buddy everything is expensive now.

hudboyween

Agree 100% every fast casual restaurant has been destroyed this year due to same store sales growth numbers flatlining. Creating beautiful long opportunities when the economy recovers imo. SG, CAVA, CMG

Temlehgib

Ol Yukon Cornelius has been on a bender the last few months… he just got kicked in the nuts. Those S&G prices were unsustainable. If you build something requiring SG or copper these price points will grind production to a halt….

MitchCurry

A couple IPOs coming down the pike, neither of which are garbage data center REITs or some crypto exchange bullshit. Bobs Discount Furniture, Inc. (BOBS) is looking to IPO at a range of $17 to $19/sh. At the midpoint, that'd raise $350MM at a valuation of $2.35B. In FY24, they reported revenue of $2.03B, basically flat from 2023 and down \~4% from 2022. GP% was 47% in FY24 while OI% was \~6%. Net income was $87.9MM (4% NI margin). Net income did rise while revenue stagnated. They're also FCF positive. YTD Q3'25 looks much better than YTD Q3'24 so they may have re-accelerated topline growth. Balance sheet is meh. They took out $350MM in debt late last year in order to pay Bain Capital, owner of the company who bought it in 2014, a dividend that exceeded $400MM. Part of the IPO funds are allocated towards paying back that debt. Company plans to expand from 200 locations to 500+ by 2035. Anecdata from the pre-Bain days: As a native northeasterner, reports of poor customer service and bad deliveries were accurate. I'm bought some furniture from them one time a couple decades ago and never did again. No interest in this company. Also on the IPO docket, Once Upon A Farm, PBC (OFRM), the company co-founded (sort of) by Jennifer Garner that runs a *lot* of commercials. Also looking to go public at a range of $17-$19/sh, the midpoint would raise almost $200MM and value the company at \~$725MM. Revenue was $156.8MM in 2024, up 66% from 2023 ($94.3MM), which itself was up 42% from 2022 ($66.3MM). They are losing money on an operating income level, -$15.3MM in 2023 and -$6.3MM in 2024. Bottom line losses total $40MM over the past 2 full years. FCF was negative at -$9.5MM in 2023 and -$14MM in 2024. Balance sheet is fine. Baby food made up 26% of 2023 sales with kid food being the other 74%. That changed to 33% and 67%, respectively, in 2024. Through H1 of 2025, revenue was up 68% to $110.6MM. However, SG&A increased by 70%. Like I said, they run a *lot* of commercials. Operating losses accelerated from -$3MM to -$9.2MM and net losses jumped from -$4.2MM to -$28.5MM. I'm not really interested in OFRM either but I could see it being an acquisition candidate pretty early in its public life. Neither company tickles my fancy but I always love when new companies come public.

Terrible-Zucchini-23

Exactly. Both their NY and SG investments are long term ones. Spanning over a decade. Memory is undergoing a insane supercycle (AI, robots, Quantum).

PhillipThePlatypus

Core business is profitable, grown its net asset value per share even as the business shrinks, massive amount of cash and potentially raising another 1.8B from warrants, $1.2B in NOLs. They are just in a really strong financial position for acquisitions. Closing of stores and reducing SG&A is part of the plan, not a sign that they are struggling (they WERE struggling, but that’s part of the turn around). I get that people think it’s a joke/meme but there’s a reason Burry likes the stock and has been buying. I stress that at this point it’s all about execution from Cohen, which is obviously not a guarantee, but there’s has been a lot of work to put them in such a favourable position from where they started and if the trend continues I imagine we will see some of that asymmetric upside in the next couple of years.

NZTamoDalekoCG

I think he is going after Greenland because Leif Ericson said it was green a 1000 years ago. (SG)

Room_101_Escapee

Here to gamble on CRWV and SG

No-Concentrate-2690

"Feel-good marketing" is not inherent to impact investments, however, when impact, rather than returns on investment, is not evaluated with similar stringency, it becomes one. In my involvement regarding climate-related risks and impact analytics (comparable to what EnviroFinanceTech does), outcomes correlate greatly to underwriting rigor. Some SG impact vehicles do line up with mainstream-return profiles, but typically in situations where the key value driver involves climate/environment (energy transition, resilience, and regulation of assets), rather than being a secondary storytelling element. Where impact funds score highest on green apples is in using ESG tick-box methodology rather than verifiable performance measures such as physical risk exposure, sensitivity, and regulatory scenarios. What I would have liked to see more LPs inquire about early on in our relationship: How exactly is impact related to improved downside risk protection/cash flow? If this connection makes sense and can be supported by data, then impact can be an added value. Otherwise, it can be Missionless. For first-time commitments, I think PE moved in tandem with data-implemented impact could represent an intelligent compromise.

PalpitationSmooth992

CMG bitches just got another upgrade CAVA down SG down told you fools this is the better horse

aPacPost

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aPacPost

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aPacPost

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peaceup_atowndown

Quick version, SG price to sales of only 1.3. If SG can bounce back from a poor year and return to a growing trend, which could take a few quarters to validate, P/S will return closer to at least the fast casual average of 6-8. This could easily justify a return to share price in the 20-30 range. From there, cash flow and execution need to improve / bounce back to enable a return to store expansion growth. These two factors would easily return the stock to the IPO level. Easier said than done but there’s potential. From there, it’s a matter of a couple years of execution to go the rest of the way. I’m a long term investor here

conroy_hines

Anyone buying calls on SG? I like how CEO bought 200,000 shares at $5.50. read SG is sitting on 2 years worth of cash burn. Expansion goals remain active - no guarantee on execution tho obviously

MrExitz

Much appreciated. Not trying to hate, I’m 3,000 shares deep and would want nothing more than $SG sweetgreen to hit $100. Them selling off their infinite kitchen business makes me question everything about this company now (granted the partnership remains). They need to turn around their financials and grow

honey_102b

explanation is incorrect. the RSUs are only taxable upon Vest date and it's because it's treated as income so the tax is literally income tax not capital gains tax, which is zero in SG. the fair market value of the whole vested amount attracts tax--whether the FMV is higher or lower than at grant date. this part is true in SG and even US and most other jurisdictions afaik. even in the US where there is capital gains tax, it only applies to gains after vest date.

LawlessNJ

Also got in Netflix at $89. Within the Netflix field, you have WBD, Para+, Disney. As every service cost goes up, people end up having to choose, and usually they choose original content. Most people I know sub to Netflix, and pick up HBO when their favorite shows get a new season, then cancel. So, I see Netflix as also pretty recession proof, and even thrived during Covid. Also, as a dual citizen, I very often live in Asia, which has their own brands of streaming (some region, some country). Everyone I know from friends to family to business associates and colleagues from China, Taiwan, SG, SK, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam knows Netflix.

Beowein

True - for a value investor I'd say this is acceptable. You are buying the power plants and the cash; you aren't paying for a bloated payroll. For a growth investor this is a yellow flag. To successfully compete in the AI cloud market against hyperscalers, DGXX will likely need to aggressively hire in 2026, which will increase cash burn, or they will remain entirely dependent on partners for execution. I'm going to be monitoring SG&A expenses in the next quarterly report. If revenue grows but headcount stays flat at 16, it confirms an outsourcing model (lower margin capture but lower risk). If headcount spikes, they are building an internal AI capability (higher execution risk but higher potential margin).

Room_101_Escapee

Proud owner of SG and CRWV. I belong here

peaceup_atowndown

https://preview.redd.it/bqewgwbaimcg1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6adc1b8d80584b3f90744d1ee5948cee089e8ba2 Right on. I’m in big for SG also. There are a bunch of positives. Refreshed menu, new years health push, food pyramid and general policy discouraging fake foods, and some excellent marketing and senior staff changes at SG. The CEO recently bought a bunch of shares too

Alive-Resolution2428

I’ll put some tickers on here that not many are mentioning: PATH, SG, AMBA, SKYT, FRPT, and AMKR. Good luck.

Stargazer_Epsilon

Stock is up 50% from lows, MAHA just released the new food pyramid which will influence school lunches, military rations, and how Americans perceive food. If there’s ONE STOCK that will benefit from this, this is it. MAKE AMERICA HEALTHY AGAIN! (FYI SG is up 50% from lows ain’t too late)

Excellent_Dare6280

!banbet SG 8.50 20d

moorhound

USS Lincoln SG is still near Manila, I wouldn't place your bets quite yet.

conroy_hines

how does everyone feel about SG? current value 1x sales compared to peers chipotle and cava 3-5x+ feels insulated. I read cash on hand is $200m+ which would get them through 2-3 years of cash burn,.

ffo_kcuf_og

Based on Carvana's financial filings for 2025, the volume of dollar transactions with **DriveTime** and other related parties is disclosed across several categories. Note that while DriveTime is a significant related party, Carvana's filings often group "related party" transactions together, which includes entities controlled by the Garcia family. # 2025 Related Party Transaction Volume According to the **Q2 2025 Financial Results**, transactions with related parties for the first six months of 2025 included: * **Wholesale Sales and Revenues:** Carvana generated **$17 million** from related parties through wholesale channels during the first half of 2025.   * **Cost of Sales:** Carvana paid **$7 million** to related parties for vehicle-related costs. * **Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A) Expenses:** Carvana incurred **$15 million** in SG&A expenses paid to related parties, which often includes lease and service agreements.   # Specific Balances and Agreements As of the **June 30, 2025 balance sheet**: * **Due to Related Parties:** Carvana owed **$62 million** to related parties ($24 million in accounts payable and $38 million in other current liabilities).   * **Lease Obligations:** Carvana maintains several lease agreements with[DriveTime](https://investors.carvana.com/~/media/Files/C/Carvana-IR/documents/annual-report-2024.pdf)for inspection and reconditioning centers (IRCs), with right-of-use assets totaling **$8 million** from these leases as of mid-2025. * **Service Agreements:** The[2025 Proxy Statement](https://investors.carvana.com/~/media/Files/C/Carvana-IR/documents/proxy-statement-2025.pdf)notes that while major agreements are established, the company periodically enters into minor transactions with DriveTime that do not exceed $120,000 individually. # Important Clarification It is important to note that **DriveTime is not a subsidiary of Carvana**. They are separate companies that are considered "related parties" because they are both controlled by **Ernest Garcia II** and **Ernest Garcia III** (the "Garcia Parties").

Always_Curious_One2

SMWB - 100% subscription revenues (half are Multi year), 80% gross margins and mid teens growth. They are a Key Data business that helps large global corporations understand their competitive position, and what their toughest competitors are doing. Their data is Unique as they collect Real Time every minute of every day the activity across global websites, browsers, mobile apps, search engines, and now generative AI driven traffic. These data are hugely valuable to enterprises from JNJ to Coke to JPM to S&P Global to Bloomberg to Google to Samsung to Apple to Disney to Eli Lilly … And the AI platforms also license SMWB data to perform their analytics. Operating margins are scaling Up as they grow their recurring revenues — with 25% EBIT (that’s right EBIT, not EBITDA) visible in the 4 year time frame. SMWB is not well covered (no one has estimates past 2027) — but with their unique data subscriptions growth and profit drop down they’ll be earning over $1 of Cash EPS in a 4 year time frame. They are not capital expenditures dependent. AI is actually helping them spend less on SG&A on the opex side. With their high margins, light capital requirements, and growing Recurring revenues — they should get at least a 20 multiple (many such businesses get 30X). So the stock should be $25-30 in a few years versus $7.45 now. Also, Adobe acquired SemRush (an SEO only company with less analytics than SMWB) for $1.9 billion in cash !! SMWB provides more value to clients, and is currently only a $618 million market cap - so an acquisition is a possibility. I am not pitching that as a preferred outcome but it sure does provide downside protection.

peaceup_atowndown

CAVA and SG. It’s so ready for a rebound.

AleaBito

I'm 9 for 11 so far accuracy so far! AXTI $15 to $150 is a extremely wild guess personally, but this is the most obscure bottleneck of the entire AI trade nobody knew about before. So I think it's possible. T1 energy just hit from $4.5 to $7+ the other week. Sorry about Nebius, didn't expect it go go up 40% then down 40% but I think patience will pay off and it hits $150 mid 2026.. **1. Hims** – $28 → $60 *(Upward)* ✅ **2. Ethereum (ETH)** – $1,600 → $4.8K *(PT: $3K)* ✅ **3. Bull** – \~100% gain, free money arbitrage ✅ **4. Google (GOOGL)** – $156 → $185 → now $256 ✅ **5. Etoro** – $67.75 → $83 *(hit $79 breakout, missed by $4)* ⚪ *(+0.5/1)* **6. Oscar Health (OSCR)** – $14.35 → $22 ✅ **7. Bitcoin (BTC)** – $103K → $124.5K, 225K PT\*(2-year play)\* ⏳ ongoing **8. Upwork (UPWK)** – $13.5 → $17+ *(PT $20)* ✅ **9. Sweetgreen (SG)** – $8.21 → $6.30 ❌ *(got this one wrong sorry)* **10. Hims (Re-entry)** – $48.92 → $60 ✅ **11. Nebius** – $108 → $150 *(hit $140)* ⏳ *(+0.5/1)* ongoing **12. Snapchat (SNAP)** – $8.45 → $7.47 ⏳ recent, ongoing *(2026)* **13. Fly** – $30 → $23 ⏳ recent, ongoing *(2026)* **14. T1 Energy** – $4.50 → $7.3 ✅ **15. Meta (META)** – ⏳ 16. $AXTI - $15 ->?

peaceup_atowndown

SG

PaperBridge12

SG. 2026 will be year of the consumer.

JulSGP

As a local, the only 2 SG headquartered companies listed in NY that anyone should consider are SEA Ltd and Grab the rest are just dubious and P&D

miraiyuni

Theres alot of quality companies in Singapore that might attract US investors, they are well known for their strong Financial and Real estate sectors which just to name a few, DBS, OCBC, and UOB for Financial and CityDev, Keppel, CapitaLand, Mapletree Indst and Ascendas Reits for their Real estates. (JPmorgan favored lists) Once they roll out this program, I dont mind researching about those companies and hopefully US stock market creates an ETF with both US-SG companies combined. that would be even more interesting!

Unique_Chip_1422

For my girl and me to both get a bowl at Cava it's $23-$24 total. I'm not saying SG is a bad move but the clear choice to me in the fast casual space space was CAVA. Monster unit economics, no debt, great ramp up at new stores, delicious food and cash flow positive. I think CAVA is the better version of Chipotle.. it's more versatile in terms of menu and appeals to a broader audience.  But good luck on the SG position. 

BigCyanDinosaur

Also thyr're already making 80% the revenue of CAVA, but CAVA is growing AND profitable, whereas SG is unprofitable, bleeding more and tapering off in revenues. It's truly a shit company

Goldonthehorizon

SG

DopeBook

Private equity could possibly buy SG.

b_fellow

OP conveniently left out SG has yet to be profitable unlike Chipotle and Starbucks by a mile.

DopeBook

Private equity will buy SG.

Raslatt

Bull, onds, open, SG, Lunr, pl, bsky, hims, Huma, soun, RDW, fig, RKLB, Lyft

Sufficient-Aide6805

I’ve made good money selling SG calls this year. Absolute dog of a company.

misguidedass

280E allows you to deduct direct expenses for cost of goods sold. They don’t allow you to deduct SG&A related expenses.

Ok-Replacement9595

It depends on what this you are speaking of. SG cam and should make the final rule, which is what Garland was close to doing if this buffoon hadn't you know, won an election. Then Congress can, and likely will, have hearings, and propose the change or block it depending on the midterms, and how badly the GOP loses. Making this issue a battle between a impeachable president and an opposition party Congress. Not good.

Forest_City_Frolfer

Not yet, they had a net loss of 24.7M Cash flow from operations was -7.6M They are losing money. They reported a large adjusted EBITDA, which isn't something I personally put any stock in. But I haven't had a chance to dive into it. Their positives look like large improvements in revenue. But their SG&A has always been extremely high.

P_A_N_C_H_O__

I get all your ideas. They are right but you are missing something very very important. This company has shit execution. All that hype had it at 40+. The hype is real. Then came multiple Qs of extremely bad numbers and poor execution, store closures, impairments, they sell super expensive salads for a loss, even beyond their reported numbers, go to a SG and you will find dirty bathrooms, untrained staff, etc. Unless something changes quickly this might even go belly up, the debt, and cash runway is not safe.

tacoandpancake

can't speak to the stock valuation, op but i do like the product. my wife and i cooking for ourselves use decent (not exessive, but we do like fresh) ingredients often equates or surpasses the cost of dinner at SG. i'll buy a modest position tomorrow because i like the product and i'm regarded

shadow_nik21

Idk, just an anecdote. SG opened in my neighborhood (big city, "posh" fancy densely populated neighborhood with a pretty young crowd). Right across the street from a huge popular gym which is always at capacity. And somehow SG is always empty while the local sandwich & coffee place next door has 20 min lines all the time

PalpitationSmooth992

stock is crazy cheap more than 50 percent off its high and a forward pe of 30 its a 40 dollar stock minimum SG has a negative PE and isnt profitable and i doubt it ever will be because its overpriced not to mention salads suck

PalpitationSmooth992

CMG > SG chicken and rice bowl is 10 bucks thats 2/3 of the cost of a salad with wont fill you up its by far the cheapest option and i live in probably the most expensive food city in the country they are also expanding to markets like cities in kansas which has lower wages SG will only thrive in high earning areas but the lower end consumer will always take the bargain and wages arent going up any time soon

Mihermano2002

I believed for a while that the stock could perform if the business executes but they’re really not. This is like a healthy fast food place too, but us Americans want to continue being literal fat fucks consuming Rot food (not me tho) . It’s expensive and turns off people looking to eat quick and would rather spend less on shit calorie dense food vs nutrient dense but also calorie dense (SG). The bowls fill you up too

Impressive_Creme1497

I lost a lot on SG. I'll stick to my SPX 0dte. Free money.

dont_downvote_SPECIL

Netflix intends to keep HBO Max operational, at least for the foreseeable future. Importantly, Netflix’s targeted $2–3 billion in annual cost synergies by year three does not appear contingent on shutting down HBO Max or abandoning theatrical releases. Instead, these savings are expected to come from SG&A, such as technology, marketing and eliminating overlapping functions

osantacruz

And a net margin of 2,5%... Crazy SG&A. If they go back down to $0.60 maybe...

Low_Education_9973

I’m from SG so we don’t have all that - just a regular brokerage account.

dvdmovie1

"and if you listen to the headlines, you’d think this company is about five minutes away from bankruptcy. " In 2014, a handful of restaurants went public because people wanted the next Chipotle. I don't think any of those is above where they went public, some were taken private at below IPO price (including Zoe's Kitchen, which eventually became part of CAVA.) I remember in 2015 when SHAK went public and people were hyped up for it. 10 years later you could have done much better and with less stress by owning the SPY or even WMT. SHAK is up about 80% since IPO and has had three 60%+ drawdowns and a few 40%+ drawdowns. In 2021, PTLO went public and while it was more of a regional thing it was beloved enough that people thought the concept would travel well and spread to other areas. It went up some initially...and then has proceeded to lose 90% in pretty much a straight line. Needless to say, it didn't travel well. BROS has ultimately gained against a weakened SBUX, but how any people sat through the 70% drawdown from the 2021 high? Nobody's saying SG is going bankrupt, it's just the experience of owning a premium restaurant concept that does well when the economy is doing well and is something you want to not be anywhere near when it's not. SG's history as a public company: -90% drawdown off the 2021 IPO, +560% off the 2023 low, then now down 83% again. While not apples-to-apples, for all the hype over SHAK you've had 10 years of volatility and not much to show for it. What's keeping the next 10 years of this being "the best of times, the worst of times?" like it has been as public company - huge volatility and great if you can catch the bottoms but not something that's ultimately a good long-term holding? The K-shaped economy situation you mention is important and while *perhaps* temporary I wouldn't handwaive it away - how long does that go on, how much further does it spread? CMG is down 40% this year, CAVA down 62% from its bubble high earlier in the year. It's not just a SG issue. "There is a massive "Trade Up" happening where people are leaving generic fast food for "clean eating." Sweetgreen is perfectly positioned to capture the demographic that views lunch as a health investment, not just calories. " I think this is a smaller audience than your thesis needs it to be. "The biggest bear case right now is that Sweetgreen is just overpriced "slop" that consumers are abandoning. " I don't know that it's overpriced slop but there is a price point for anything where enough people are going to start to seek alternatives/trade down/etc. There is absolutely a price ceiling for salad bowls, burritos, whatever where you will start seeing people say no, or cut back. If you like restaurant automation, you may want to take a look at Circus SE in Germany (I'm not long but something you may find of interest.) I don't see SG as a zero and I don't really think I've seen a lot of people online who do - I just think the reality for this stock is that it's going to be something that does well when times are great and it's not something you are going to want to own when times are less than great unless it's down massively and you think you can pick the turn in the economy.

ch0c0l8cake

$WEN $CMG $PFE $NVO $CAG $UPS $TAP $SG $WHR $TGT These are for true investors, not the fiends looking for a 10% random gain on some news overnight. Patience is key at this stage we are in with this market Collecting dividends, DCA, and avoid swing trading between companies is the key for the next 5-10 years

EarlyDuration

So the interesting thing is that they sold the subsidiary behind Infinite Kitchen, Spyce Technology, to Wonder. Wonder owns Grubhub and has a legendary founder/CEO trying to blow up the ghost kitchen space. SG got a $100m lifeline and about a 1.2% in Wonder. They also retain licensing rights to the automated machines and get the right to purchase it at Cost + 5%. So as Wonder scales the tech, SG will disproportionately benefit. And yes, the meme angle is legit, IMO

Lost_Grand3468

This dumb fuck must of lost millions on SG.

Room_101_Escapee

SG is SweetGREEN

Superb-Breakfast8324

Maybe weren't wrong about SG after all...😉

Room_101_Escapee

SG is back!

Room_101_Escapee

More SG. I belong here

Cybertrucker01

Not saying SG companies aren't just shells for end Chinese companies, but using human population numbers as a measure for AI chip demand at any given location is downright retarded.

Striking_Match_6171

Thoughts on SG and FISV?

Bobatronic

SG Hater have never been to SG at the lunch rush or read their balance sheet.

proret4rd

Bought CMG, SG, and CAVA. Company asked everyone to come back to office 5 days a week.

TheoryInttro

For truly degenerate gambling, you can go with 15x leverage bull/bear warrants on indexes or single equities. 15xSPY on the Hong Kong exchange: [https://hk.warrants.com/en/cbbc/indicator/code/49853](https://hk.warrants.com/en/cbbc/indicator/code/49853) SG issues a whole bunch of these at various level of daily gearing for the discerning degenerate. [https://wholesale.banking.societegenerale.com/en/news-insights/glossary/certificates/](https://wholesale.banking.societegenerale.com/en/news-insights/glossary/certificates/)

ch0c0l8cake

WEN, CMG, SG Food is going through there recession already. WEN has a sweet 6.5% dividend SG has automated food CMG is the goat with how many stores they have

wallstreetdata

Certara $CERT * a biosimulation tech company to help bio companies with drug discovery * down 30% due to lower bookings due to Tier 1 customer hesitancy * CEO bought $200k * first purchase by any insider since 2023 and first-ever purchase by CEO Redwire Corp $RDW * an integrated space and defense tech company * down 30% because of missed earnings/rev and lowered guidance due to delayed gov contracts * CEO, GC, and CAO bought * insiders have bought a handful of times in 2025 and it's gone poorly Celsius Holdings $CELH * energy drinks * down 30% due to net loss and distribution challenges with recently acquired brands * president and director both buy * first insider buys since 2019 Sweetgreen $SG * fast-casual salad chain * down 30% due to slowing same-store sales * CEO and chief concept officer both bought * first-ever buy for both of them

Moist_Astronomer6976

AI ROI is real today; the investable question is unit economics and refresh cadence, not whether use cases exist. In our shop, a narrow LLM triage cut support cost per contact from 4.80 to 2.10 with 32% deflection and a 7-day sticky-close metric; document intake (OCR + rules) took claim cycle time from \~3 days to under 8 hours, with errors down from 11% to 3%. Coding assist lifted throughput \~25% without raising rework. On hardware, treat it like servers: plan 3-year depreciation, target 50%+ utilization, and assume 20–40% residuals on resale; paybacks penciled at 12–18 months when we batch/quantize and cache. Track cost per 1k tokens, GPU hours per resolved ticket/report, and margin per watt; under those thresholds, rent GPUs. We use Azure OpenAI for summaries and ServiceNow for workflow, and DreamFactory fronts Snowflake and SQL Server with RBAC APIs so agents can read/write without DB creds. For investing, watch power-constrained DC capacity, inference pricing trends, and who actually shows reduced SG&A from AI in filings. The real thesis is payback and utilization, not whether AI matters.

Nefarious_AI_Agent

They gota take profits here to pay for CAVA and SG

HappyAd3560

Let my kid pick a stock last year and now I have to look at that very red FNKO holding every day. SG is the other one I don’t know what to do with at -70%.

Ok-Needleworker1964

You are better to buy puts on Semler Scientific SMLR they are also leveraged bitcoin play but unlike MSTR are way overvalued. They have basically gave up on their medical business and have secured financing to buy BTC above 100k and have excessive legal costs i have done some basic research see below Legal actions and expected cash costs - DOJ/HHS settlement: A large, near-term cash obligation (commonly cited around the low‑$30M range). Timing in late 2025 tightened liquidity precisely as operating performance was weakening. - Class actions and defense costs: Additional exposure likely in the mid‑eight figures when combining potential damages and defense/admin expenses. Even if ultimate damages land lower, cash defense costs are real and front‑loaded. - Merger-related litigation: Incremental legal spend adds friction to already limited cash resources, raising the aggregate legal burden. - Bear implication: Legal cash outflows arrive ahead of or regardless of operating recovery, creating forced liquidity events (BTC sales or financing) during unfavorable market windows. --- Bitcoin position and unrealized losses - Holdings concentration: BTC dominates the asset base; holdings scaled rapidly in 2025 via convertibles and ATM issuance. - Average purchase cost: New 2025 tranches clustered near the high‑$90Ks to ~$100K per BTC. That’s materially above long‑run Bitcoin acquisition averages seen at peers. - Current mark vs. cost: At BTC in the mid‑$80Ks USD, unrealized losses accumulate in the tens of millions (commonly estimated around $50M–$65M depending on tranche weighting and exact holdings). - Earnings impact: Fair‑value changes run through the P&L, adding volatility and potential headline risk when BTC trades below cost basis. - Bear implication: High-cost BTC plus fair‑value accounting amplifies drawdowns, weakens reported results, and increases the chance of selling into weakness to meet cash needs. --- Insider sales and governance signals - Insider selling: Management has filed and executed notable sales, including authorizations suggesting intent to reduce exposure. - Ownership concentration: Institutions dominate the float; concentrated holders can accelerate downside via block sales or reduced support. - Bear implication: Insider divestment during stress periods undermines confidence in near‑term recovery and increases perceived governance risk. --- Merger outlook and strategic execution risk - Likely failed merger narrative: Ongoing legal scrutiny, liquidity strain, and market skepticism point to low probability of successful, value‑accretive merger execution. - Integration and distraction risk: Even if a deal were pursued, legal overhangs and treasury volatility impair focus and balance‑sheet flexibility. - Bear implication: Without merger relief, Semler remains a leveraged BTC proxy with shrinking healthcare revenue contribution, limiting strategic optionality. --- Cash flow profile and liquidity stress - Operating revenue vs. expenses: Healthcare revenue trends are soft; quarterly revenue (~single‑digit millions) has been barely covering operating expenses (SG&A + R&D + COGS). - Cash balance: Around ~$10M mid‑2025, insufficient for legal settlements plus ongoing operations. - Debt service: Convertible notes at 4.25% imply ~$4.25M annual interest, paid semiannually (~$2.125M). With conversion far out‑of‑the‑money, cash repayment obligation persists. - Runway math: Combining operating burn, interest, and legal outflows yields > $50M cash need in H2 2025 into early 2026, far exceeding on‑hand cash. - Bear implication: Liquidity gap necessitates asset sales (BTC), further dilution (ATM), or expensive refinancing—each negative for equity holders. --- Debt structure and creditor dynamics - Instrument: Convertible senior notes due 2030, issued to fund BTC acquisitions, held by institutional buyers. - Conversion economics: Initial conversion near ~$76/share; with stock around ~$19, conversion is deeply out‑of‑the‑money. - Creditor options: Hold for coupon, trade notes at a discount if credit risk rises, or negotiate early exchanges/buybacks if liquidity tightens. - Bear implication: Equity is structurally subordinated to cash debt service; in stress, creditors gain leverage while equity faces dilution or forced BTC sales. --- Likely BTC sales to meet obligations - Estimated liquidation need (Jul 2025–Jan 2026): Roughly ~625–720 BTC at an average ~$86.5K price to fund interest, operating expenses, and legal settlement cash calls, assuming minimal external financing. - Sensitivity: At $80K BTC, sales rise toward ~750–800 BTC; at $90K BTC, sales could drop toward ~600 BTC. - Bear implication: Forced selling into weakness compounds unrealized losses, reduces treasury optionality, and may trigger negative feedback loops in reported results. --- Bear thesis triggers and monitoring signals - Near-term cash events: Confirmation of payment timing for large settlements; any 8‑K signaling added financing or asset sales. - Debt market signals: Pricing of the convertibles in secondary markets; indications of exchange offers or covenant pressure. - Insider and institutional flows: Additional insider selling; large holders reducing positions. - BTC price sensitivity: Sustained trading below the company’s blended cost increases P&L volatility and liquidation needs. - Operational traction: Any continued decline in healthcare revenue widens the cash burn and heightens reliance on treasury maneuvers. --- Counterpoints to pressure-test the thesis - BTC rally: A sustained move above the company’s blended cost (~$100K) flips unrealized losses to gains, improving optics and potentially enabling opportunistic financing. - Financing access: Successful, non‑punitive refinancing or sizable ATM proceeds could bridge cash needs without heavy BTC sales. - Legal resolution below expectations: Lower-than-feared damages or extended payment schedules reduce immediate liquidity strain. --- Bottom line The bear case centers on stacked liquidity stress: high-cost BTC with sizable unrealized losses, insider selling, a weak probability of merger relief, and legal cash outflows colliding with limited operating cash and debt service obligations. In practice, that means ongoing BTC sales, dilution via ATM, or costly refinancing—each unfavorable for equity holders unless BTC materially rallies or legal burdens ease.

FrostingInfamous3445

Call spammers missed out on SG this week. Who knows if it keeps going

No_Abalone8812

lol wrong… you’re taking the unadjusted price for SG&A of Super Major Oil companies like $OXY and $COP - the breakeven price for a smaller connoted producer like Vision is closer to $28 / barrel… in fact at times like this it’s a great time to buy oil wells for cheap and drive up production. Learn their model. The price you’re quoting is far more relevant to drilling a brand new well, that’s not what this is company is doing currently. And this company doesn’t own or hasn’t bought any brand new rigs. It is buying rig companies that come with revenue and with assets that are already paid off. Do some DD.

Cozyteammate

Lol enjoying paying 30% off interest debt, 60% off capex, 20% off SG&A, 25% off colocation That's $1.35 per $1 revenue The more revenue you make, the more you are in debt.

White_Sugga

Made some good on SG, probably going to move it here. Weary about yhe ER though. The markets been a Shitshow lately

MrFloppyWrists

Sweetgreen was a trend. They heavily relied on office people coming in during lunch. Working in office will never go back to what it used to be. Less people can afford a premium salad and there are cheaper alternatives. Look at previous salad chains; Sweet Tomatoes, Saladworks, Green District, ect... They all filed for bankruptcy. Sweetgreen will be no different. Let SG die in piece and look at a different company to bet on.

DonDiabloTheGreat

Stargate SG1 needs a HD remaster. Yes I’m a nerd 🤓

Room_101_Escapee

SG and CRWV owner here. I belong here

Room_101_Escapee

I only need CRWV to double and SG to go up 300%. I’ll be good then!

Room_101_Escapee

SG and CRWV save me

yungsavage14

Can anyone tell me what’s going on w SG AH?! I copped $20K worth on Friday so this AH spike better not be a blue ball

leomeng

Just ate a SG salad. 950 calories. Am walking laps around local park (gonna do roughly 10 miles).

Room_101_Escapee

Save me SG

hamburgers8

Good play! Up 10% today. Are you wishing you bought more? SG is talked about a lot in the value investing sub along with other restaurant recession stocks. CMG, PTLO, JACK etc… All down massively right now

Enough-Pound1026

$SG CEO just dropped $1M on his own shares. Short interest is 26%.

Ok_Signature500

Can I nominate $SG? Salads are green. Money is green. That's the thesis.

Enough-Pound1026

$SG CEO just YOLO’d $1M into his own stock while shorts are sitting at 26%. Salad about to get tossed.

Room_101_Escapee

CRWV and SG. Let’s go!!!

Enough-Pound1026

$SG CEO just bought $1M in shares. Short interest is 26%.

Enough-Pound1026

$SG CEO just bought $1M worth of shares AND the stock is sitting at a fat 26% short interest.

chsws1

Part of the turnaround thesis, need to open more stores (absorb SG&A costs) and margin expansion