SMA

jrex035

Yesterday's pump was one of the most narrow in history. SPY was up more than 1.5% but rsp up only .5%. Only 25% of S&P components are above their 20 day SMA, 29% above their 50 day, and 49.5% of their 200 day. Compare that with August 13 when SPY hit its ATH, when 69% were above their 20 day, 68% of their 50 day, and 72% above their 200 day.

Foreign-Put1361

For long term - I track the 200 day SMA and buy within 5% of it or ideally below it for strong entries and otherwise just keep in a HYSA or USDC before entry

music_is_gud

Fundamentals to my liking, but the defending 50d SMA is bothering me a bit. It does provide a tight stop loss right below the 21d EMA though

iamwhiskerbiscuit

Market has been dumping at open and recovering late day/overnight for a while now. Wednesday's bounce off the 50 SMA was bullish. Thursday and Friday's rejection off the 21 EMA, it's inability to close above it for the last 8 trading days, and red candles 8 out of 10 of last 8 trading days is bearish. Just buy strangles at open. As much as it's been moving in the morning lately, it'll be hard to lose.

shmito17

No. It rejected SMA 11 / 22 today.

Upset-Motor-2602

100-day SMA

Upset-Motor-2602

We at 100-day SMA for SPY

Upset-Motor-2602

SPY hanging on to its 20-day SMA....

Upset-Motor-2602

SPY loses 50-day SMA we are looking at testign $750. Puts times.

Bravadette

🤔. It does seem like tomorrow is a puts day though. Finished right under the SMA 200

superKWB

I do this for my long positions when I'm adding to them. I wanna be adding to them at certain specific points in time. And knowing what the sector is doing at the same time is actually quite helpful. If the entire sector is crashing and I like to buy it −2 standard deviations on the 20 day SMA because statistically , That's the time to buy, but that whole sector's crashing.Well , it'll make me wait and watch and hold on a little bit...

RileyKohaku

Scholar Rock Holding Corporation, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on improving the lives of children and adults with spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) and other rare, severe, and debilitating neuromuscular diseases.

MordorBlues

#Long way down to the 200SMA

Wapmen

how to calculate a bottom support for it? its way below 200 SMA

onerandomcomputerguy

I'm a buyer at the 200D SMA

ThetaMan7500

I am curious to know what types of indicators people use for support and resistance levels. Especially when choosing a strike for selling calls and puts? Fib lines, 200 day SMA, GEX levels, expected moves, etc?

CurrentAirline9065

Even on Dell/HPR the VWMA trend lines are sinking compare to their SMA counterparts. Not even the explosive gains today are being supported by institutional volume

MordorBlues

This is the last gasp before the 100 SMA breaks

dritu_

Yes. I do this with WAMA and WIMA. These funds switch from stocks to cash when the indexes they follow drop below theor 200d SMA. The best part is I get to capture all the upside of S&P 500 and Ex-US without having to deal with multi-year bear markets demolishing my wealth -- AND I don't have a taxable event when pivoting to cash.

music_is_gud

It's daily. 200 day SMA. Goog just broke below that today. Wait for it to reclaim. I know a lot of institutional funds don't touch stocks below the 200d

Soffatjockis

~325 SMA on googl If it goes there ima buy

Boring_Bank501

Google under 200 SMA

Cav829

Why? If anything, it looks like a puts day considering it lost the SMA20.

-IQ200

Need this SPY double bottom off the 20 SMA to hold. Plz astrology, work work work.

shmito17

From a technical, it's above the 11/22/55 SMA. Once it moves past $159, it'll keeping pumping to 190+. That drop on Tuesday was to scare everyone out of shares/calls.

shmito17

Now sure what to make of RDDT. It closed above the 11/22 SMA. Maybe it fully breaks out. Today's move was lethal.

Cav829

Remember, it's smacking intraday into the SMA20 and 50. You could play 708 to like 710, but beyond that the risk/reward is terrible. Likewise, I'm not super in love with going short here in case there's some FOMO buying. I think this is a good morning to just sit it out.

Cav829

I recognize a bull trap when I see one. I'm waiting until the open. If I miss a half a percent, I miss a half a percent. Buying the Qs smacking into the SMA20 and SMA50 into the open based off a small oil pullback is not my idea of good risk/reward.

The_Albertino

GOOG failing its own 200 SMA is a bad look

Cav829

Pretty picture perfect retrace to the SMA50 into full on dump on the Qs. Thanks for the quick scalp.

GameOfTrading_2026

Google is near 200 SMA. You can sell CCs for Sept exp. But stocks usually bounce near 200 SMA. I posted the analysts on my X account yesterday.

BigWarning8696

I've been eyeing it, haven't bought yet. I don't like how it hits the 20SMA and bounces down. Bought some TLN though. That one definitely looks way oversold

Designer-Salt-3119

Maybe me with LITE if they break my SMA…

No_Presentation9490

50day SMA breaks are fucking easy to trade, your risk is so small and clearly defined. the fact that people dont tell retail investors this and instead give some dogshit time in the market advice or "wait for the move to confirm" is so malicious

Cav829

Depends how long this goes on. But bringing additional refining capacity online takes years and is incredibly expensive. So while a lot of analysts see say VLO massively over-extended, it is trading somewhat cheap if this oil crisis were to say last another 6-12 months. So far pullbacks to just below the SMA20 keep getting bought right back up, so waiting for another of those might be the best play. Problem is right now it's got both the positive and negative potential of the memory trade hanging over it: it could really go straight vertical based on that constraint, but the second it breaks down, it could flush 30% very fast. Best my 5 a.m. between bouts of sleep brain can offer advice on if you're considering it.

Accurate-Exchange298

Consistent profitability takes time and is a function of how well you educate yourself in the mechanics of stocks and options trading, how you manage your emotions when your stock is falling (learning not to panic but find a fix to recover your capital and sometimes taking losses if the thesis around the stock you bought is broken) . All is lost only when you have lose hope. Take the effort to educate yourself one more time in an organized fashion. The links below can complement what is out there on the internet. Also, here is nothing wrong with stopping to trade for a while and just buy ETFs or mutual funds like VOO index from Vanguard until you have educated yourself again If you have access to kindleunlimited, you can read in more details on [amazon.com/dp/B0H7P6CQSG](http://amazon.com/dp/B0H7P6CQSG) on covered calls , CSPs (plus 12 other strategies) . Each strategy covers; * What the strategy is and how its payoff actually works * When the adjustment conversation starts, and the trigger signals that say it is time * The fixes experienced traders weigh, and the trade-off behind each one * The story of the Greeks, so you understand why a position moves the way it does * A worked example with real numbers * The common traps, and how to avoid them . A critical part of options trading is picking the right strikes. If you are selling covered calls against the shares you like to own, for longer term, you will try to pick a strike where your shares are not called away. For CSP's , if you are placing a trade for stocks, you want to make sure you have a decent premium, and if you do not want to own the shares (while not recommended, sometimes the trade is done on whim, for short term gain) , you would like to pick a strike such that you do not get assigned the shares. I have an old post on how I pick strikes based on Volume Profiles/POC/VAL\_HI/VAL\_LOW and Deltas [https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1u3qbv1/picking\_option\_strikes\_based\_on\_delta\_is\_not/](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1u3qbv1/picking_option_strikes_based_on_delta_is_not/) (5) Always trade within your risk tolerance limits and size positions carefully . Have an exit plan in place before you place the trade. (5) Beyond that , knowing the support and resistance of the stock, MACD, understanding of moving averages (10 day SMA, 20 & 30 day EMAs helps) .. and the last and the most important one is 'TEMPERAMENT' . For technical analysis, you might want to get thinkorswim by schwab or many others . There are lot of tools that might give you alerts when your positions are in trouble but we all should know how to manage the position. Bottom line - Always have cost basis handy and never sells calls below cost basis. Having an exit plan before placing a trade is essential.. That minimizes losses and produces superior returns. This post is based on my experiences and can complement youtube videos on options trading, other informative texts shared by other traders. Anybody charging a fee to help you improve is not the right person to go to.

onerandomcomputerguy

Guess I'm a buyer of IREN at the 200 week SMA...which is $17 💀

shmito17

META getting cockblocked at SMA22 three times already. I'm hoping it busts through today.

Designer-Salt-3119

LITE just crossed its 100SMA, you know what that means

iisconfused247

When you guys say the “20” are you referring to the 20 SMA?

BigWarning8696

might be a bit premature to get back into the space sector. ASTS seems to hit the 50SMA and bounce down. Now in negative MACD territory so looks like the downtrend will continue. I'd wait it out a bit to get a better price. The wildcard is if the market rips because of NVDA ER, the entire market likely will

MyNi_Redux

BTC needs to retrace back to 200SMA and fail, otherwise this expectation was a dud.

BigWarning8696

looking at the sector ETFs are useful. You can see that pump last week in SOXX was off the 100SMA and hit the 50SMA on very low volume and reversed. That was a sign to switch to short or at least close some of your position. When this happens you want to look at the sectors that are moving that day since hedge funds are relocating into those

swingsetmafia

Hard to say. Everybody an their mother knows nvidia sells off post earnings which has a type of self fulfilling prophecy aspect to it. On the orher hand, nvidia just finished its 7th striaght down day. Could be broad market stuff, could be iran or trade war nonsense, but it could also be people selling of early after a run up to avoid the post earnings sell off. Could mean that nvidia is oversold going into earnings, with sellers exhausted, and rapidly approaching the the 200 day SMA which has recently acted as a spring board to the upside.

BigWarning8696

If NVDA dumps after ER, I can see SNDK drop close to the 200SMA which is sub $1000. If it does, I would buy bigly

centromeres

I’ve always found that when i’m most confident, I lose the most amount of money. When i’m doubtful, I make a moderate amount and kick myself over not going in deeper and holding for longer. You experienced being doubtful and now you will experience being confident. Just a heads up, the overall market might have a bad day today. Over the weekend, there was increased tensions between Canada and America over tariffs and the Iran situation isn’t helping. Also, lots of fears around rising bond yields which has disproportionate short-term downward pressure on stocks. Moderna is a great company that I traded many times but you can’t forget that they had 20 billion in revenue 4 years go and were profitable and now they are not profitable and have less than 2 billion in revenue with a price to sales ratio over 25. Even if the new vaccine is a financial success, the market knows it will take years to materialize and that the short term spike is not representative of current fundamentals. If the market sells off at open, I have a hard time seeing it go over 155. Now with the slope of the 20 and 50 SMA being negative, I can imagine more selling pressure ahead. Also, look at every price spike since it hit a high of 194.88 dollars. 194.88 -> 171.21 -> 166.96 -> 159.47 -> 153.89. I think the highest it will go today is 148 to 149. Maybe even less than that if it’s a bearish day.

Wapmen

MU, MRVL and QQQ overall broke below the 50 days SMA, will it work as a guaranteed magnet?

panda_sauce

This goes much deeper, but TL;DR: * They're growing revenue over +100%/year with a 55% profit margin. * The market is mostly pricing them as a lender, not a marketplace. But, as of the Q2 earnings, more than 50% of revenue now comes from capital-light marketplace fees. * For the vast majority of the lending book crossing the marketplace: * They don't pay for marketing (their partners do). * They don't fund the loan (their partners do). * They don't buy the loan on the backend (their partners do). * The purchase market is frozen below 2008 transaction levels: * People don't want to lose their current low-interest rate loans and inflationary pressures are building from AI capex, the Iran war, and Treasury debt worries. * In this environment, HELOCs have massive tailwinds, because they allow people to tap their significant home equity without losing their low-interest mortgage rates. * The market is pricing a terminal (future) HELOC market share below where they were 2 months ago - and the rate of market share capture is *increasing*. * The only "sell" analyst rating is from a direct competitor (BAC), who also very likely just saw FIGR overtake them in market share (BAC won't report their figures until the end of the year; FIGR self-reports public weekly numbers which are third-party verifiable). * If you're a technicals person, the share price just closed above the 200-SMA; you missed the early bounce, but we're now in "confirmation" territory. My own model (that I've been building + tuning for months) is targeting a \~$88 share price, primarily limited on hitting limits on backend capital availability: |Case|What has to break|Value|Weight| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |Acceleration|nothing breaks, funding just scales|$253|7%| |Bull|funding ceiling is high, ramp normalizes|$187|24%| |**Base**|**distribution limits reached**|**$88**|**43%**| |Bear|pricing compresses + de-rate|$27|20%| |Tail|regulators recharacterize the product|$6|6%| (Note that the "tail" case here is basically the risk that regulators change all the rules around how the HELOC market works in a way that shatters the business - extremely unlikely, but included for due diligence; FIGR is also already diversifying the business.) I hold a significant long position. Happy to go deeper into the mechanics of *why* FIGR's marketplace works so efficiently that it's attracting 100+ new partners a quarter; it takes some explaining of how funding of the entire housing market works.

iisconfused247

With all the stuff going on isn’t it pretty likely to keep dumping for a bit? Also, noob question but how does this 50 SMA help here? It’s just trending down

music_is_gud

It was beaten down after earnings for absolutely no reason while some of its competitors went up on STRL's earnings numbers. That's the "hunch" aspect. Technicals wise (which is what I rely on quite a bit): it's extended below the 21 EMA and found support at 200SMA 3 days in a row, so it provides a good low risk entry (stop right below 200 SMA) Fundamentals wise: the company is growing at triple digits revenue and EPS YoY, gimme a friggin break!

No_Presentation9490

it rejected off its declining 50 SMA six times so far today. maybe it breaks through, maybe it doesnt

No_Presentation9490

they rejected off their 50SMA 4 times so far today can we make it 5

TotalInstruction

https://preview.redd.it/i8yck7e20nkh1.png?width=290&format=png&auto=webp&s=b9dbdfe6a97387e21a15e58c5378b31d3ec36556 I've got SPY still north of 20 SMA and 50 SMA, with support lines at about 750 and 730. If it breaks through 750, I'm probably out.

Cav829

Stop looking at WMT's forward P/E. This is why nobody can figure out when to buy in on Apple. The average forward P/E for that company for a decade has been 28x. It's never going to trade where you want it to because there's no business more embedded in this entire country than WMT. It's a cash fortress and not going anywhere. If it gets back to $80 (monthly SMA50 in a few months), I'd be dumping my retirement savings into it. That's about the low point I can see it going short of every stock taking a 50%+ haircut.

No_Presentation9490

QQQ has dropped underneath the 50day SMA. This is not a drill.

TheBestCanadianGoose

QQQ will bounce off the 200 Hourly SMA

CobblerInternal2703

> if memory doesnt hold the 50 SMA here then june was probably the top i can buy .1 shares of SNDK if that will help

No_Presentation9490

if memory doesnt hold the 50 SMA here then june was probably the top

Ahamadrayasbaboon

Agreed. I do all that shit, but thats because I’m a nerd. With the (lack of) available info, dude might be able to go full FXAIX lump sum and every month and just track the TTM or SMA or whatever and be happy most decades. 

MyNi_Redux

200SMA is the third rail. Don't do it!

SadPablo

Did anyone try TQQQ with SMA 200 strategy?

BladeFireQ

SNDK broke the SMA50... Maybe the bull trend was all the friends we made along the way

Boring_Ad7277

39350 nasdaq will hit ema21 and SMA 50, then the V to green. watch.

Namtabmal

META trading below 200 SMA. Gonna start DCA at this point. Looking at GOOG as well. Very close as well

Dagger_000

$SNDK Another one I missed... held that 50 SMA daily and hasn't looked back since. What the hell...

BigWarning8696

I see previous steady downturn from early June with the 20SMA being resistance for each bounce down. On Aug 7 a big breakout through the 20SMA with high volume. Since then, its been consolidating as selling volume is drying up. Will likely bounce off the 20SMA and start a bull run. I'm accumulation under $44.45 with a stop of $41.50

music_is_gud

News mainly, but the day's price action was too strong to ignore. It finished above its 50 SMA, literally at top end of the trading range. Super bullish for next week!

wafflepiezz

Sandick about to break above its 1D SMA and go straight to $1700+

iisconfused247

Just got it last week! Is the paid version worth it? So you do your technical analysis on trading view then put in orders on your brokerage? Also, what are the main indicators you look at? I’ve been reading about SMA, EMA, volume, and RSI as the top ones Also, if it is institutional selling, wouldn’t it be better for them to dump all shares at once, crash the price, then buy it back if they wanted to at that time? That way they get the actual sell price they want (instead of slowly bleeding Google) + opportunity to re enter

ThrockmortenMD

10 day SMA

mhughes2595

That is good. This builds upon yours. GOAL Build a repeatable system for asymmetric stock/options trades with defined downside and outsized upside, usually held 2–10 trading days. Accept concentrated bets, binary catalysts, options squeezes, bearish trades, premium selling, and occasional full losses — but only when sized so a total loss doesn't threaten next month's trading capital. POSITION SIZING (numeric — this governs everything below) Max risk per trade: no single position risks more than 2% of account equity at the pre-defined invalidation point. This is dollars-at-risk, not dollars-deployed — a defined-risk spread's max loss counts; a naked short's assignment/gap risk counts at realistic worst case, not premium collected. Size tiers map to a number, not a vibe: A+ → up to 2% risk A → up to 1.25% risk B → up to 0.75% risk C → do not trade (per original rule) Max total risk deployed at once: 8–10% of account equity across all open positions combined, even if every individual trade is A+. This is the difference between one bad trade and one bad week. Daily/weekly loss circuit breaker: at −4% account equity in a day or −8% in a week, stop opening new positions until the next review cycle (see Review Trigger below). This is a pause, not a ban — it forces the adversarial check to run on your own state, not just the trade. CORRELATION / CONCENTRATION CAP No more than 3 open positions expressing the same underlying driver (sector, single commodity, single narrative — e.g. "AI hardware," "bitcoin proxy," "meme squeeze"). Two tickers can be one bet; count the bet, not the ticker count. No more than 25% of deployed risk in one correlation bucket at a time. Before entry, state explicitly: "What does this position have in common with what I already hold?" If the answer is "the same reason it might go up," it's concentration, not diversification, even across different symbols. CORE PHILOSOPHY (unchanged, kept) The objective is not a perfect setup — take intelligent risk where potential reward materially exceeds realistic downside. Confirmation has an opportunity cost; do not require every breakout, VWAP reclaim, retest, MA signal, or momentum confirmation. Ask: what do we give up by waiting, and how much asymmetry do we lose? If entering earlier with smaller size offers better risk/reward than waiting for textbook confirmation, favor the earlier entry with better expected value. Do not confuse higher probability with better expected value. ADVERSARIAL RISK CHECK (unchanged — this is the strongest part of the original) For every serious candidate, try to disprove the trade first. Classify the biggest reason not to take it: FATAL — breaks the thesis; pass. MANAGEABLE — real risk, controllable through sizing, structure, entry, expiration, hedge, or invalidation. NORMAL UNCERTAINTY — uncertainty already compensated for by upside; do not demand certainty. Cost of waiting counts as a risk category too. Do not recommend a trade because premium, leverage, IV, or potential return looks exciting. Explain why the payoff exists — who is on the other side of this trade, and why. ANALYZE THE WHOLE OPPORTUNITY Company: growth, contraction, dilution, balance sheet, management, distress. Mispricing: is price wrong, and why — overreaction, misunderstood guidance, temporary bad news, improving fundamentals, valuation disconnect, underestimated catalyst, or volatility mispricing. Catalyst: what could force repricing — earnings, guidance, analysts, products, contracts, regulation, M&A, restructuring, debt resolution, squeeze dynamics, sector momentum, unusual options activity, news. Potential: realistic and stretch upside, probability-weighted outcomes, whether options improve or dilute convexity. Ask, quantitatively: if right, how much can we make (in R-multiples of risk, not just dollars)? If wrong, how much do we lose (must equal the sizing number above, not an estimate made after the fact)? What would have to be true for the market to be right and me wrong? TECHNICALS = ENTRY TOOLS, NOT VETO MACHINES (unchanged) Support/resistance, VWAP, EMA20, SMA50/200, RSI, volume, gaps, and trend structure are for entry, sizing, and risk/reward — not automatic overrides of a compelling thesis. Do not say "wait for VWAP reclaim" as a substitute for stating what evidence would actually invalidate the thesis. ENTRY MODES (unchanged, kept) ANTICIPATORY — downside definable, thesis compelling, near support, upside or waiting materially reduces asymmetry. Start smaller (cap at B-tier size regardless of conviction — anticipatory entries are structurally less confirmed). CONFIRMED — confirmation materially improves probability without materially consuming upside. CHASE — avoid after large moves unless new information raises fair value or the thesis materially re-rates. Size down one full tier from what conviction alone would suggest. OPTIONS — DEFINED RULES, NOT JUST QUESTIONS Cash-secured puts are available, not the default. Use them only when premium is attractive relative to collateral and you would want the underlying at the effective entry price (strike minus premium). Minimum quantitative bar to sell a CSP: state the annualized return on collateral at the bid, not the ask. If it doesn't clear a number you set in advance (e.g. 15% annualized), the premium isn't attractive — it's noise. Do not sell premium solely because IV is high. High IV without a defined reason (event, dislocation, squeeze) is often high IV for a reason you haven't found yet. No naked/unbounded short options risk. Every short option position has either a long option hedge, a defined max loss, or is explicitly a cash-secured put where assignment is an acceptable outcome, not a tail risk. Earnings/event binaries require explicit, separate approval — not silent inclusion because the setup otherwise looks clean. State the event and the expected move before entry, every time. SQUEEZES / BEARISH TRADES (unchanged) Evaluate short interest, float, days-to-cover, positioning, sentiment, and liquidity. A mediocre company can still be a good squeeze trade — that's a different thesis than a quality thesis, and should be labeled as such so it isn't held past the squeeze on hope. NEWS + SENTIMENT (unchanged) Always check current news for serious candidates. Determine what changed, whether priced in, analyst/institutional reaction, and relevant Reddit/social sentiment — treat crowd sentiment as a data point on positioning, not as confirmation of thesis quality. HOLDING / SELLING — WITH A DEFINED EXIT, NOT JUST A QUESTION Do not sell solely because a position turns red. Ask: did the thesis break, or did price simply move against us? But this question needs a pre-committed answer, set at entry: Invalidation level, stated in price or in fact-pattern terms, before entry. "I'll know it's wrong if X happens" — not decided after it happens. Do not refuse an early entry; only refuse an early exit on the first pullback if the invalidation level hasn't been hit. Do not average down blindly. Only add when thesis remains intact, mispricing improves, invalidation is clear, and total risk is still within the position's sizing cap above — averaging down that busts the 2% cap is a new trade decision, not a continuation of the old one. DO NOT LET ME OVERRIDE THE ANALYSIS (unchanged, kept as-is — this is good) Do not reverse a conclusion because I push back. Change it only if evidence changed. If I am wrong, tell me. Never place or submit a trade without my explicit approval. Added consequence: if a trade is placed without explicit approval, or a hard rule above is broken (sizing cap, correlation cap, no-naked-options, earnings-approval), log it and treat the next candidate's review as mandatory C-tier regardless of quality, until a review happens. A broken rule pauses the system, not just that trade. SCANNING (unchanged) Scan broadly for catalysts, post-earnings setups, temporary selloffs, mispricing, momentum/reversals, squeezes, unusual options activity, speculative small caps, and bearish setups. REQUIRED OUTPUT, FOR EVERY SERIOUS CANDIDATE Company quality · Why now · Mispricing · Catalyst · Potential (realistic + stretch, in R-multiples) · Downside (in dollars and % of account) · Technicals · Entry type (anticipatory/confirmed/chase) · Cost of waiting · Instrument · Options quality when relevant (IV, delta, spread/liquidity, OI, breakeven) · Size tier and dollar risk (explicit number) · Correlation bucket and current bucket exposure · Portfolio impact · Biggest reason NOT to trade · Risk classification (FATAL/MANAGEABLE/NORMAL UNCERTAINTY) · Targets · Time horizon · Alerts (exact prices) · Existing positions: BUY MORE/HOLD/REDUCE/SELL/EXIT · New trades: ENTER NOW/STARTER POSITION/ENTER ON PULLBACK/ENTER ON BREAK/WATCH/PASS. Be decisive. NO-TRADE RULE (unchanged) Say NO TRADE when there is no edge, risk cannot be defined, upside is insufficient, positions are badly priced, liquidity/assignment risk is poor, the move is excessively extended, correlation is excessive, or the thesis is mostly hope. Do not say NO TRADE simply because a setup is imperfect. REVIEW TRIGGER (new) Re-review this entire framework — not just the trade in front of you — whenever any of the following happens: the daily/weekly circuit breaker fires, a hard rule is broken, or account equity crosses a new $X,000 milestone. The review asks one question: did the rules fail, or did I fail to follow them? Fix the rule only in the first case. FINAL PRINCIPLE (unchanged) Optimize for: expected value × asymmetry × confirmation, not certainty × confirmation. At the current price, are we being paid enough for the risk? If yes, take intelligent risk. If uncertainty is the problem, size smaller. If waiting destroys the asymmetry, do not wait simply to feel safer.

ThrockmortenMD

I do the same thing but with 30delta condors, filtered only for when SPX is trading above the 10SMA and VIX below 24. Automated on a bot, has done very well for me.

kryptonite848

This is the instructions I currently use: GOAL Build a repeatable system for asymmetric stock/options trades with defined downside and outsized upside, usually over 2–10 trading days. I accept volatility, concentrated bets, binary catalysts, options, squeezes, bearish trades, premium selling, and occasional full losses when sized properly. Avoid lottery tickets, blind averaging down, hype-only trades, chasing, poor liquidity, and unclear invalidation. Use intraday charts mainly for entry quality. Always use @Robinhood agent when relevant. Review positions, buying power, orders, total risk, and correlated exposure. CORE PHILOSOPHY The objective is not a perfect setup. Take intelligent risk when potential reward materially exceeds realistic downside. Confirmation has an opportunity cost. Do not require every breakout, VWAP reclaim, retest, MA signal, or momentum confirmation. Ask: What do we gain by waiting, and how much asymmetry do we lose? If entering earlier with smaller size offers better risk/reward than waiting for textbook confirmation, favor the earlier entry. Do not confuse higher probability with better expected value. ADVERSARIAL RISK CHECK For every serious candidate, try to disprove the trade. Always state: BIGGEST REASON NOT TO TAKE THIS TRADE: Classify it: FATAL — breaks the thesis; PASS. MANAGEABLE — real risk controllable through sizing, structure, entry, expiration, hedge, or invalidation. NORMAL UNCERTAINTY — uncertainty already compensated for by upside; do not demand certainty. Compare risk severity with expected upside and the cost of waiting. Do not recommend a trade because premium, leverage, IV, or potential return looks exciting. Explain why that payoff exists. ANALYZE THE WHOLE OPPORTUNITY COMPANY Classify as good, mediocre, distressed, turnaround, or trading vehicle. Consider growth, balance sheet, dilution, management, and distress. MISPRICING Ask whether price is wrong. Look for overreactions, misunderstood guidance, temporary bad news, improving fundamentals, valuation disconnects, underestimated catalysts, turnaround potential, or volatility mispricing. CATALYST Identify what could force repricing: earnings, guidance, analysts, products, contracts, regulation, M&A, restructuring, debt resolution, squeeze dynamics, sector momentum, unusual options activity, or news. POTENTIAL Estimate realistic/stretch upside, downside, holding period, probability-weighted outcomes, and whether options improve convexity. Ask: If right, how much can we make? If wrong, how much do we lose? What would have to happen for the market to be right? TECHNICALS = ENTRY TOOLS, NOT VETO MACHINES Use support/resistance, VWAP, EMA20, SMA50/200, RSI, volume, gaps, and trend structure for entry, invalidation, adds, exits, and risk/reward. Technicals should not automatically override a compelling thesis. Do not automatically say “wait for VWAP/breakout/confirmation/retest.” Compare early entry with confirmed entry. If uncertainty is the problem, reduce size rather than rejecting the trade. ENTRY MODES ANTICIPATORY — Downside definable, thesis compelling, near support, upside large, or waiting materially reduces asymmetry. Start smaller. CONFIRMED — Confirmation materially improves probability without consuming too much upside. CHASE — Avoid after large moves unless new information raises fair value, momentum is the thesis, or substantial upside remains. POSITION SIZING A+ — Exceptional asymmetry + defined risk. Larger speculative sizing. A — Strong opportunity. Normal speculative sizing. B — High potential, meaningful uncertainty. Reduced size. C — Poor asymmetry, unclear thesis, hype, or undefined risk. PASS. Use size to manage uncertainty. Do not reject B setups solely because they are uncertain if potential is exceptional. PORTFOLIO RISK Check buying power, capital/premium at risk, correlation, concentration, overlapping catalysts, and whether one market move could damage several positions. OPTIONS Options are encouraged when they improve asymmetry. Evaluate strike, expiration, delta, IV, expected move, liquidity/spread, volume/OI, theta, breakeven, catalyst timing, and stock target. Give the thesis enough time. If options are overpriced, use shares. Do not buy an option merely because it is cheap. Ask: What move does the underlying need, by when, and what happens if direction is right but timing or IV is wrong? CASH-SECURED PUTS / PREMIUM SELLING Cash-secured puts are available, not the default. Use them only when premium is attractive relative to collateral AND I would want the underlying at the effective entry price. Check earnings/events, liquidity/spread, volume/OI, IV/event risk, delta, % OTM, breakeven, assignment cost, return on collateral, correlation, and account fit. Ask: Would I actually want to own this company at the breakeven price? If not, reject the put regardless of premium. Do not sell premium solely because IV is high. No naked/unbounded short-option risk. Consider a small defined-cost hedge on unusually risky positions only if it meaningfully improves the payoff without destroying asymmetry. SQUEEZES / BEARISH TRADES For squeezes evaluate short interest, float, days to cover, volume, catalyst, positioning, sentiment, and liquidity. A mediocre company can still be a good trade. NEWS + SENTIMENT Always check current news for serious candidates. Determine what changed, whether priced in, analyst/institutional reaction, and relevant Reddit/social sentiment. HOLDING / SELLING Do not sell solely because a position turns red. Ask: Did the thesis break, or did price simply move against us? Do not refuse an early entry, buy only after confirmation, then sell on the first pullback. AVERAGING DOWN Do not blindly average down. Add only when thesis remains intact, mispricing improves, invalidation is clear, and total risk is acceptable. DO NOT LET ME OVERRIDE THE ANALYSIS Do not reverse a conclusion because I push back. Change it only if evidence changes. If I am wrong, tell me. If analysis was too conservative, acknowledge it and adjust. Never place or submit a trade without my explicit approval. SCANNING Scan broadly for catalysts, post-earnings setups, temporary selloffs, mispricing, momentum/reversals, squeezes, unusual options activity, volatility mispricing, cash-secured puts, sector rotations, speculative small caps, and bearish setups. REQUIRED OUTPUT For serious candidates provide: Company quality Why now Mispricing Catalyst Potential: realistic + stretch upside Downside Technicals Entry type: anticipatory / confirmed / chase Cost of waiting Instrument Options quality when relevant: IV, delta, spread/liquidity, OI, breakeven Sizing Portfolio impact Invalidation Biggest reason NOT to trade Risk classification: FATAL / MANAGEABLE / NORMAL UNCERTAINTY Targets Time horizon Alerts: exact prices Existing positions: BUY MORE / HOLD / REDUCE / SELL / EXIT New trades: ENTER NOW / STARTER POSITION / ENTER ON PULLBACK / ENTER ON BREAK / WATCH / PASS Be decisive. NO TRADE RULE Say NO TRADE — when there is no edge, risk cannot be defined, upside is insufficient, options are badly priced, liquidity/assignment risk is poor, the move is excessively extended, correlation is excessive, or the thesis is mostly hype. Do not say NO TRADE simply because a setup is imperfect. FINAL PRINCIPLE Optimize for: EXPECTED VALUE × ASYMMETRY × OPPORTUNITY not: CERTAINTY × CONFIRMATION At the current price, are we being paid enough for the risk? If yes, take intelligent risk. If uncertainty is the problem, size smaller. If the thesis is the problem, do not trade. If waiting destroys the asymmetry, do not wait simply to feel safer.

DatDude_1p

$MSFT Tough decision but I'd lock in those gains tomorrow since it just lost the 9 SMA on the daily chart which is currently at $492.75 and we just had our first close below that today...so I'd sell at least your cost basis tomorrow morning and ride freebies or you could potentially sell all contracts. Fundamentals look solid as well but that's an awfully nice profit to be able to take! https://preview.redd.it/ywmagwe7i0jh1.png?width=1665&format=png&auto=webp&s=095a73f3dc39a4a2c5c9df804cd52255e3e0767f

Wapmen

Any hints? Do you use technical analysis to detect the actual deepest dip? Something like 200 SMA or bollinger bands or RSI

phinancial-freedom

Likelihood of assignment being so high, would only ever consider that strategy after a strong pull back, low RSI and at bottom of the BB but with both the 10 and 20 SMA trending back up

ZacRedwood

I’ve been trading LEAPS that last couple of years and am up 300% this year. ( but obviously want to point that growth isn’t sustainable. ) 100% of my port are deep ITM LEAPS (.70 Delta +, 365 DTE). I mainly trade high beta growth stocks (NBIS, RKLB, ASTS). You can buy lower beta stocks if this amount of risk doesn’t suit you but my overall rules are: \- Buy during times of intense fear using the CNN Fear & Greed Index \- I only trade stocks with high liquidity to track key catalysts over the year and map out their implied % move \- Keep cash aside to buy stocks after huge pull backs where the stock is falling under the 200 SMA but the fundamentals are still in tact The only 3 rules I have for selling at a loss: \- The fundamentals of the stock have been broken and have changed for the worse \- I need the cash for a better opportunity \- I need the cash for life ( this one should never happen but is a default rule) Besides those rules, if I’m in profit my rules for selling are: \- Catalysts have just passed and a quiet zone is coming up \- parabolic extension has just happened \- Stock is hitting 6 monthly highs (since I want to be out of my position inside my year time frame and reset) \- Basically I use the key catalysts as my reason to get in, and if they fail, I have the ability to hold for the next year before I need to sell Ultimate rule \- No matter what, I always sell 3 months before expiry to avoid the final theta decay window (this burns the most) Also I want to add that hedging using an ETF that correlates with your stock selection is also a great way to avoid huge drops during pullbacks (like the recent couple of months) Idk if that helped much but feel free to DM me if you want any more info. Happy to help where I can

yellowLantern

Solds some CSPs at the 200SMA. Probably gonna hit it tomorrow at this rate lol.

No_Presentation9490

i predict microsoft crashes to 440 ish to retest its 50 SMA. Every other Mag7 is underneath their 50SMA.

No_Presentation9490

every mag7 is gravitating towards their 50SMA lately stop applying fundamentals

ZacRedwood

Huge help! Thanks for this. Just to clarify, you’d rate CPI and PPI as the primary indicator for the type of growth stocks I trade, then the yield and 10 year index would follow in 2nd? Do you feel like these indexes are actually accurate in showing market cycles before they happen? In my experience, most standard indicators (200/50 SMA) coincide with the stock price so they don’t do much to help weigh the probability and direction of a market cycle. Once again, awesome knowledge here. Thanks for sharing.

NoOneMan79

Im going to paste AI Slop from my agent. It **DOES NOT make decisions/determinations**. All numbers come programmatically and the trade heuristics are deterministic. It simply narrates/explains the 800+ heuristic trading signals in combination with the prompt, stock news, and text books by subject matter experts. In the future, I will try to make the agent a bit more involved in choosing reranking the signals contextually. ====== ## Bottom Line Up Front **This is a live social-media pump attempt riding on genuinely elevated short interest — not a confirmed short-squeeze setup, and not obviously becoming one.** There's real fuel: **29.7% of float shorted**, ~10 days-to-cover at current volume, **~$328M net cash, $0 debt**, and a pending Nasdaq compliance decision. But the three ingredients that turn a candidate into a squeeze — **volume ignition, a tape-moving catalyst, and crowd coordination** — are all absent. Friday's restatement + earnings release (the "biggest news in months") bought the stock just **+5.9% on one-third of its average volume**. And the options market has already priced the squeeze in: **IV ~123% vs realized 64%**. You'd be paying 2–7× "fair" volatility for a lottery that is fighting a down-trend. ## Market Context - Price: **$1.61** (+5.9% Friday) · 52W range: $1.30 – $7.43 (**−78%**) - IV: **122.7%** (Aug 21 ATM), 104.8% (Aug 28) — **inverted term structure** - Realized vol (20-day Parkinson): **64.4%** → IV/RV ratio ≈ **1.9×** - Daily 1σ expected move: **$0.124 (±7.7%)** - Below SMA50 ($2.00) and SMA200 ($2.92) — primary trend is down - Avg volume 10.6M (50-day) · Friday volume 3.6M (**RelVol 0.34**) - Open interest: $2.00 Aug 21 calls **3,820** · $3.00 Sep 18 calls **9,013** · $3.00 Jan 2027 calls **13,661** **Volume is the story:** it has collapsed from 30M+/day in May to 3–6M/day. The reversal is unconfirmed. ## The Financial Reality Check | Metric | Value | Read | |---|---|---| | Market cap | ~$360M | vs $4.93M TTM sales → **P/S ≈ 73** | | FQ2 revenue / net | $1.5M / −$276K | Tiny; negative margins (-417% TTM) | | Net income TTM | −$20.6M | Op margin −524% | | Cash + ST investments (restated 8/7) | ~$328M | Cash/sh $1.47 vs price $1.61 | | Debt / total liabilities | $0 / $7.4M | Balance sheet genuinely clean | | Book value | $1.59/sh | Trading essentially at book | | Employees | 55 | IPO Nov 2023 | **What the Reddit DD got right:** the cash pile is real (~89% of market cap — the market values the whole operating business at ~$40–46M). A "runs out of money" short thesis is weak. **What it glosses over:** - **SEPA (Standby Equity Purchase Agreement)** — named in the restatement itself. A death-spiral facility: the company can print shares at a discount into any rally. May's $38.7M offering at $2.60–3.20 shows management will absolutely sell into strength. **This caps squeezes.** - **Class action** over allegedly misleading Microsoft-partnership statements. Restatement of FY2024/FY2025 + multiple quarters. **Nasdaq delisting notice pending** on the 7/20 compliance plan. - **Insiders have been distributing the entire ride:** COO sold ~$1.3M at $2.48–5.11 (2025); former officers sold at $2.68–3.00 in Feb 2026. Zero insider buys. - History (from an ex-holder in the threads): the "NVIDIA collaboration" — hype tweets before Jensen's keynote, then no mention, no partner-board listing. A repeated pattern of statement-driven pumps, now the subject of litigation. ## The "DD" — What's Actually In Those Four Threads Same author, same essay pasted **verbatim into 4 subreddits in 5 days**, self-described: *"I write this all to increase exposure of course."* No position disclosure. An "update" version went up 2 hours before I priced this. | Claim in the DD | What the data says | |---|---| | SI 37.64% / 63.81% of active float | Official: **29.72%**. "Active float" math is self-inconsistent (84.6M in part 1, 125M in part 2) | | 11.8 days to cover | 5.08 on trailing volume; **~10.3 on current 20-day volume** (partial credit — volume did dry up) | | "$2.00 call → $0.15–0.25 if RR hits $1.85" (4–7x) | Black-Scholes at 110% IV: **$0.10**. At realized 64%: **$0.04** — overstated 2–5× | | 2,394 contracts at $2.00 | Actually **3,820** (they undercounted) | | Cash: "$35M" → "$250M + $110M" → "$328M" | $328M is real — but the story changed 3 times in a week | | "Gamma ramp forming" | Call OI is real but small: full delta-hedge of the $2.00 stack = ~80K shares vs **54M short** vs 10M daily volume. Gamma is a spark, not the engine | | "OBV/ADL mathematically proving accumulation" | Unverifiable; author admits AI-generated analysis | | "450 deployments, 100% renewal, global retail giant MSA" | Unverifiable PR claims, none in filings | **Community reception is the tell:** total engagement across all four threads is ~60 upvotes. The DeepFuckingValue one scored **1 point (55%)**. Top comments are skeptical ex-holders ("hobby projects cobbled together with Temu parts", "repeatedly misleading statements", "same BS every few days"), Glassdoor complaints, and one r/Shortsqueeze user calling it out directly — *"write an article to convince people to throw money at my bagholder stock, then I'll buy calls, then spend 2 weeks spamming forums."* One commenter admitted buying $50 "because this came on my feed." That's the cohort these pumps farm — and there aren't enough of them yet. ## Squeeze Scorecard (against the standard screening framework) - ✅ Short interest / float: 29.7% (≥20% = candidate, >30% = extreme) - ✅ Days to cover: ~5–10 (elevated-to-high) - ⚠️ Cost to borrow: unknown — not verifiable - ✅ Float concentration: 31% institutional + 18.7% insider → shorts may be ~43% of actively traded float - ✅ Dense call OI near/OTM ($2 and $3 strikes) - ❌ **Catalyst moving the tape: restatement + earnings → +6% on ⅓ volume** - ❌ **Volume ignition: RelVol 0.34, 3 months of declining volume** - ❌ **Coordination: ~60 upvotes, skeptical comments, 4 crossposts** - ❌ **Dilution machinery: SEPA + demonstrated ATM selling** Most heavily shorted stocks **do not** squeeze: without a catalyst, high SI gets absorbed gradually; and IV on high-SI names already prices in squeeze probability, eating the edge. RR matches the profile of a candidate that never ignites — and it's down 78% for real reasons (litigation, delisting risk, restatement, fake-partner history). The systematic read (819 trading-rule heuristics evaluated on live data): **trend DOWN, strategy affinity: long puts > long calls**, top fired rules: exit longs in a bear trend, prefer the short side in a downtrend, use a probability calculator, keep positions small. The play being pitched (naked near-the-money calls) is **counter-trend**. ## The Long Call Menu — Premiums and Break-Evens Prices are last-trade 8/7. ⚠️ **Bid/ask is essentially absent on this board** — expect brutal spreads; the DD's own $0.03/$0.04 quote is the only live two-sided market I saw. | Expiry | Strike | Prem | Break-even | Move needed | Δ | Note | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | 8/21 | $1.50 | $0.20 | **$1.70** | +5.6% | 0.67 | closest to money; 5 sessions; theta + IV crush risk | | 8/21 | $2.00 | $0.04 | **$2.04** | +26.7% | 0.21 | the DD's example — fair value at $1.85 is ~$0.10, not $0.15–0.25 | | 8/28 | $2.00 | $0.06 | **$2.06** | +28% | 0.26 | | | 9/18 | $2.00 | $0.15 | **$2.15** | +33.5% | 0.39 | best outright-call risk/reward | | 9/18 | $3.00 | $0.04 | **$3.04** | +88.8% | 0.13 | pure lottery | | 11/20 | $2.00 | $0.28 | **$2.28** | +41.6% | 0.49 | | | Jan'27 | $2.00 | $0.36 | **$2.36** | +46.6% | 0.54 | longest cushion | | Jan'27 | $3.00 | $0.22 | **$3.22** | +100% | 0.36 | fair at 123% IV, **7× its 64%-vol fair value** | **The math behind the warning:** at $1.85 — the DD's own "if" — the 8/21 $2.00 call is worth **$0.10** even with IV held at 110% (a 2.5×, not 4–7×). If IV mean-reverts to the 64% realized level on the bounce — the normal sequence on these names — it's worth **$0.04, exactly what you paid, after the stock rallied 15%**. The squeeze scenario is already in the option prices. ### If you still want to be long the squeeze Defined-risk structures only (this is also the standard guidance for squeeze participation): - **Sep 18 $2.00/$3.00 bull call spread** — debit ~$0.11 · break-even **$2.11** (+31%) · max profit $0.89/contract · max loss $0.11 → **~8:1 reward:risk** - **Jan 2027 $2.00/$3.00 bull call spread** — debit ~$0.14 · break-even **$2.14** (+33%) · max profit $0.86/contract · max loss $0.14 → **~6:1** - 8/14 $1.50/$2.00 (6 DTE) — debit ~$0.16 · BE $1.66 · max profit $0.34 — tempting, but that's a 6-day gamma/theta lottery Position size: **1–2% of the account, one spread, predefined exit.** Squeezes end abruptly and reverse sharply — most commonly within days of the peak. Don't hold a winner through the top. ## Verdict - **Pump-and-dump in the making? Yes — and a weak one.** Same author, four subreddits in a week, undisclosed position, self-admitted exposure motive, AI-generated "741/GME" numerology bait, inflated and self-contradicting stats, and a comment section full of people this company's press-release game already burned. - **Real short-squeeze setup? Not yet.** Genuine SI fuel and a genuinely cashed-up balance sheet — but no volume, no catalyst confirmation, no crowd, insider selling, and a SEPA sitting ready to sell into any rally. Friday was the tell: the single best news in three months produced a 6% bounce on sleeping volume. - **The flip that changes the call:** a Nasdaq compliance **approval** announcement *with* volume >30M and a weekly close above **$1.70**. Then $2.00–2.05 (SMA50 / max-pain / volume-node confluence — the only part of the DD I'd credit) becomes live gamma territory. Until that prints, the odds are on the side of the stock doing what it's been doing. *Data: last-trade option quotes 8/7 (illiquid board — confirm executable prices before committing), Finviz snapshot cached ~10h, 20-day Parkinson realized vol from daily candles. Not financial advice — and the "DD" author's own closing line applies: don't get attached to a stock.*

Eagerbeaver98

I think you should look to taking small profit and small gains. Buy at strong supports like 200 day SMA or EMA or 21 day EMA or weekly charts. You need to buy the strongest fundamentals companies too, maybe buy leveraged etfs and take a break from options because options are lowkey very expensive and very hard to time, at least buying a 2x leveraged etf will feel like a multiple month option or even leap. Just dont buy value trap companies with little growth that have been sold off. Like nflx, now, msft , meta etc. Although msft cloud revenue finally encouraging

Expert-Jury-7634

The Robinhood app and think or swim on my laptop. Probably not the best but they work. Still learning so I’m sure there are better out there but I just adjust for 5 X the average volume and at least 5% gain. I also try and make sure they are above the 150 SMA. It seems to work on finding them. I just gotta learn how to get in and out without being greedy and learning how to read charts. I’ve been looking at balance sheets when I can and writing down the definitions of the detailed view balance sheets. It helps me absorb info and have an idea what I’m looking at. Got a long way to go though lol. Been swing trading a lot lately and I think that’s probably going to be the best fit for me. Gambling the penny stocks gives me chest pains😂

KarlLachsfeld

Oil.. SMA.. jesus.

dritu_

WAMA - gives literally both S&P 500 and treasuries, depending on performance. It automatically allocates to S&P when above its 200d SMA, and to treasuries when below. You get nearly all the upside of the S&P without the potential long term downside.

Eagerbeaver98

Truth API while a joke is frigging irrelevant to this ralley. This ralley is improvements to macro in 2nd straight month of reduction in inflation and no rate hikes and citadel being a fraud that rushed to buy a 40 billion hedge fund who was margin called, along with 2nd straight quartet of growth from cloud for AI and making ytd highs for hyperscalers on earnings, while also approaching the 200 day SMA. I know youre joking but theres dumbasses on this sub who will believe you so Im trying to protect those dumbasses.

NoOneMan79

Hey, Im about 1/4 of work though trading agent. Right now its simply RAGs (8000 entries among 25 books), uses quant and trading heuristic tools, and can pull live data. Nothing special yet. Just want a gut check on AI slop and would love any feedback: HTZ Short-Squeeze Investigation 1. The Squeeze Claim — What the Data Actually Shows Metric Value Verdict Short Float 28.66% (97.54M shares) High — above the \~20% threshold where squeezes become possible, but far below GME-style extremes (>100%) Days-to-Cover 5.95 days Elevated, not extreme. Shorts can exit in \~6 days of avg volume — a squeeze would burn fast and short Institutional Own 104.88% Consistent with heavy shorting (borrowed shares re-lent) Price $1.61, at 52-wk low ($1.55), −80% from high Deeply beaten down — 52% below SMA50, 66% below SMA200 RSI(14) 29.1 Oversold — fuel for a reflexive bounce Catalyst Earnings Aug 6 BMO (3 days) The binary event that would ignite or kill the squeeze The fundamentals are genuinely ugly: −$637M net income, negative book value (−$2.49/sh), EV of $19.8B against a $579M market cap (massive leverage), active securities class-action lawsuits, and a −40% single-day crash on June 24. Analysts are mostly Sell-rated, though the mean target is $3.09 (\~2× spot). A July 7 FT piece noted shorts covering has actually been propping the stock up — some of the squeeze fuel is already spent. Verdict on the claim: This is a speculative squeeze candidate, not a high-quality one. High SI + oversold + tiny price + earnings catalyst = real squeeze potential, but you're betting against a violent downtrend in a company with a non-trivial bankruptcy tail. 2. The Options Market — Where the Trap Is I computed IV from Friday's closing option prices and realized vol from 3 months of daily candles: Contract IV Aug 7 weeklies (post-earnings) 245–262% Aug 21 122–148% Sep 18 125–157% Dec 18 114–124% Term structure is inverted — the market is charging you 2× the vol for the earnings window. Buying Aug 7/21 calls is the classic retail trap: even if HTZ pops +10% on earnings, the post-earnings IV crush (my model: −0.05 to −0.12 per contract on a 30–40pt crush) plus theta (−0.45 to −0.53¢/day on Aug 21s) can make a correct directional bet lose money. The December calls are the cheapest vol on the board (114–124%, roughly in line with realized) — that's where you want to be. The rules engine (818 rules evaluated) largely agrees: it fired low-price-call-preference (Graham: sub-$10 stocks favor long calls, 0.7) and pre-earnings-backspread (0.7), while warning against weeklies (avoid-trading-near-earnings, 0.8) and against fighting the downtrend (avoid-long-call-on-non-up-trend, 0.7) — which is why sizing discipline below matters. 3. Recommendation If you play the squeeze, the December bull call spread is the best risk-adjusted structure (Friday closing prices, verify live Monday): Structure Cost Break-even Max Profit Core: Dec 18 $1/$2 call spread $0.43 $1.43 — below current price $0.57 (+133%) Kicker: Dec 18 $2/$3 call spread $0.14 $2.14 (+33%) $0.86 (+614%) Alt: Dec 18 $2 call outright $0.33 $2.33 (+45%) Uncapped The $1/$2 spread minimizes break-even exactly as you asked: $1.43 is \*under\* spot, its long leg is 0.85 delta with minimal net vega, and it shrugs off the earnings IV crush. The $2/$3 kicker keeps the explosive upside for 14¢. What to avoid: \- ❌ Aug 7/Aug 21 calls — 245%+ IV, theta, and crush will gut them \- ❌ Buying 1,000s of shares — no theta, but unlimited downside in a downtrend with a binary event in 3 days; options cap your loss at the debit \- ❌ Selling puts for "income" — assignment risk into a potential delisting/bankruptcy scenario \- ❌ Puts — the honest bear case exists (terrible fundamentals, downtrend), but that's the opposite of your squeeze thesis and IV makes them expensive too Timing: Split entry. \~½ Monday Aug 3 (before the Aug 6 BMO earnings — you must hold through it for the squeeze pop, and the Dec structure limits crush damage), \~½ reserved to add post-earnings either on the squeeze continuation or on the IV-crushed dip. Use limit orders at mid or better — these quotes are Friday's closes and spreads on $0.10–0.70 options are wide. Sizing (this is a lottery ticket — treat it as one): Risk 0.5–1% of portfolio maximum. On a $100k account: \~12× Dec $1/$2 spreads ($516) + \~14× Dec $2/$3 spreads ($196) ≈ \*\*$712 total risk\*\*. Never add to a loser here. Exit plan: Squeezes are measured in days, not weeks — scale out ⅓ at +50%, ⅓ at +100%, trail the rest. Hard stop if HTZ breaks \*\*$1.00\*\* (NASDAQ delisting threshold changes the game entirely) or if it closes below $1.43 pre-earnings on heavy volume. If earnings pass with no squeeze, exit within a week — the thesis is dead.

loremipsum106

It was SO satisfying to see my COIN short FINALLY print. I have been sitting on it for weeks watching it hit its head on the 50 day SMA. I feel almost vindicated for staying long on AAPL through earnings 😆

No_Presentation9490

I feel like they dump on this, they're way above their 50 SMA and they've been circling it for months

damn-dan0

Good luck. Weekly Ema about to crash into 200 SMA. I would get puts until candlesticks get above the 50 SMA https://preview.redd.it/ofwu9lhrx9gh1.jpeg?width=1320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bd50a5c614a9e7566caf51bf4f6e9ed28182de65

arrchar

Not that it’s any reasoning but SPY tagged the 10 SMA around 3pm today coinciding with the drop. Unfortunately that might mean a few more days of red if it starts a new trend.

thedosi

Pretty clear QQQ will test the 200 Day SMA at this point around $644ish

Ill-Cow4735

Wait what out? Wait to be 280 again? It bounced on 50 week SMA with this earnings, below 200d EMA. It's time to buy.

-IQ200

Didn’t realize how bad the situation is. QQQ is at SMA 100. 😳

vermilli21

Its been under the 200SMA since the beginning of July

A10cc

# Kospi broke delow it's 200 day SMA

No_Construction495

Share price crossed the 10 and 20 day SMA. 10 day crossing the 20 day SMA is the trigger. 

ai___________

The SMA lines on meta is so fucking confusing lmao

Dude_HaHa

BE kissing the 200SMA. Time for puts I think.