SMA

McOmghall

We're in for 3 months of WE'RE SO BACK from highly regarded bol every time we jump back to SMA

ThatsUnbelievable

Hong Kong is trying to push higher through 20-week SMA, NQ is inversing, could be bear mania for NQ soon

ThatsUnbelievable

There's also the 9-day SMA and daily downtrend line being rejected here. Definitely a place to try entering short if you're into confluences.

loremipsum106

The fact that it rejected off the 200 day SMA was bad news. But volume was low and no particular move was strong except for the run up early in the day. I don’t think this market, especially nasdaq, can move in a material direction without the participation of Nvidia. Today was a milk toast drawdown on news of investigating a CEO who has the ability to bring down the entire market with a stray comment. I don’t buy it. Maybe they’ll slap his hand. Hope they don’t take forever to do it, because we are stuck below the 200 without Nvidia.

Sick0h

Q’s bounced down off the 200 SMA. Don’t like that.

Inglethorpe

i have a scheduled job that looks for a few indicators of some major indices. I'll use an increasing %ge of dry powder to buy depending on how many score a positive hit \- close below 200d SMA \- VIx > 30 \- >8% below 52 week high \- RSI(14) below 30 \- within 2% of 52week loq 25% if 2 hits, 50% if 3, 75% if 4 etc

shmito17

It’ll hit the 22 SMA at 9.18.

Sick0h

200 SMA seems obvious, below that would be at -10%.

DatDude_1p

You absolutely killed it! Great trade! I appreciate the transparency in your thought process. I'm pretty new to Reddit as I've always been on X but I like your boldness in everything I'm reading from your other posts. You said yesterday that, "I personally rolled into the 7900c for the end of next week, so long as SPX stays above 7640 tomorrow. I'd want to see 7800 by the end of this week, so if it doesn't maintain momentum I'll bail out." It looks like 7640 was about where the 9 SMA was on the daily yesterday as well as the 200 SMA on the 30 min chart. 1) Were you eyeing the 9 SMA on the daily as your stop? I hope I'm not bugging you but I really like your style as you seem to risk a small amount for huge upside. The last two days have been quite volatile with a fairly significant gap-up on Wednesday and a massive dump today. 2) How would you typically characterize your risk reward ratio and what ROI would you say your average is if you don't mind me asking? $2.40 - $60 for 2,400% ROI overnight is incredible but it seems you pull these off quite a bit so congrats!

-IQ200

SPY bounced off the SMA 200. Relief rally incoming, back to 770 like nothing happened.

Cav829

Or at minimum the previous AtH before the breakout ($635 on the QQQs). But with the velocity with which this sell-off has occurred, I think we go lower. I calculated a move off of the topping pattern on the QQQs of revisiting the March lows though, plus we can finally fill that gap everyone swore we never would at the time. Law of mean reversion kind of points eventually coming back into the monthly SMA50, but we may not get there in a straight line.

random_question4123

That’s pure speculation, he doesn’t really know whether the trend continues or not. But with the Nasdaq crossing below the 200d SMA, it’s easier to tilt toward bearish sentiment. However, it could very easily have gone the other way with a bunch of buyers coming in to buy the dip at the 200d SMA matk

-IQ200

S&P at 200 SMA. Final line of defense.

Top-Meaning2626

Stop losses might be upto 5% below the SMA to fully trigger mass automated selling.

Leopold_Trashberger

Spy getting close to the 200 SMA, could get interesting there

BigWarning8696

Interesting to see the QQQ touch the 330 SMA and used it as "support" (I use that term very loosely today). The same thing happened in April before the rally. The 330 is used by institutions for buying on value for longterm holds

shmito17

SPY 200 SMA at 727. It's almost a certainty to hit that at some point.

ThelIIusion0fSeIf

"You asked what TA  explains stocks before the fact." Show me where I asked that. Let's make a bet actually - find me where I have ever asked anyone in my entire life what type of TA explains stock before the fact and if you can't then you should delete your account permanently because basic reading comprehension is obviously too difficult for you. There are plenty of professional traders who use technical analysis to make money. Are you seriously so fucking oblivious that you're unaware of that? If you're betting that the SPY, QQQ, VGT, etc. will be higher in 20 years than it is now then why wouldn't you buy aggressively below the 200 SMA? You're getting more shares for less of the same companies. Do me a favor and don't engage with this post anymore. You have nothing of value to add.

ThelIIusion0fSeIf

Why do people say moving averages are "voodoo" exactly? Do you want me to explain the incredibly easy and objective math behind it? MAs just smooth out the trend curve being the volatility spikes on a candlestick chart. If the 50 SMA is below the 200 SMA the price is trending down. When it's flipped it's the opposite. There are some people who reflexively dismiss technical analysis not understanding what it actually is.

joe4942

XLK below the 200 SMA.

CurrentAirline9065

61% of SPX stocks above their 200d SMA btw. 70% above their 20d SMA. Bear market is OVER

DatDude_1p

Great trade [u/USSZim](https://www.reddit.com/user/USSZim/)! Just curious on your thought process here. Looks like you purchased the calls at midnight EDT. I'm assuming you were thinking that the Dems would take control of the House and Senate and the uncertainty was removed from the market which would cause a rally? I'm also assuming that you grabbed upside calls that were about 1% OTM from yesterday's close and close to the 9 SMA on the daily chart? https://preview.redd.it/cnw3fonznnzh1.png?width=1627&format=png&auto=webp&s=e7c9456f1736e7140dd7c40a167b3e4a33eeaf5f

jcpopm

You don't think a 3% swing in the Q's in 2 hours, pushing it under the 200 SMA for only the 3rd time since 2023 (the other two being the tariff tantrum and the Iran war) is significant? You must be Tom Lee or something.

Material_Meats

Yeah but GOOG is $50 below the 200 SMA

Cav829

I've given it very small chances the last week with insanely tight stop-losses, and I think I lost a small amount for my efforts and literally hit sell on the last shares I had in 30 seconds before we lost the SMA200. But here? There's literally nothing left holding anything up.

Cav829

I am at a fucking loss for this move. How are we just back at the SMA200 like that.

Yunglemon

This is the exact time you should average down, google isn’t some random micro cap. Look at what happened to msft when it just touched its 200 SMA

Sick0h

Some of yall have missed the Q’s bouncing off the 200 SMA yet again and will watch in disbelief as we rally to another ATH.

shmito17

SMCI better stay above its 200 SMA or it's night night despite the beat.

cherry_cream_soda_

Genuinely think odds favor a face ripping rally for the rest of this month. QQQ is holding the 200 SMA right on time and we haven't actually made a lower low on the weekly chart. Last time we consolidated this long, we dipped hard and then ripped for a month straight.

ipeench_

MU loves getting slapped down by the 200 SMA on 1minute chart

Surly_Furious

SPY's been above the weekly 200SMA, literally, for 15 years. Only a couple blips below.

shmito17

Kind of worrisome with the setup. Below every major SMA. Macro. Most companies especially semi’s selling off hard. It’s either under $30 or $36-37 post earnings. GL!

Jerikolol

Stop it, stop it GOOG Is already dead. RSI is in the low 20s. 52 weeks low. way below the 200 SMA prolly wont ever see that again. ENOUGH. MMs, STOP! Its dead already, leave Sundar alone.

shmito17

MSFT hasn’t closed below its 55 SMA since July. No bueno.

shmito17

NVDA under its 200 SMA again.

shmito17

MSFT under its 55 SMA - not a good sign.

shmito17

AMD 200SMA is at $412. It hasn't tested it since March. This could get ugly.

shmito17

PLTR feels like an obvious short. Lost 200 SMA; 55SMA at around $150.

CurrentAirline9065

$MU say goodbye to 144 SMA, next fib is 233 at $682

Sea_Purchase7794

I don’t think it’s weird at all. RSI is around 25, the price is below the lower Bollinger Band, and it’s well below the 25-day SMA a short-term bounce is definitely possible.

OrangeForeva

No. It's just not the huge gap up we've had in earlier weeks. So noise. Might we get +1-2%? Possibly. Will I trade it? Nope. Waiting for more structure personally. I think we'll go visit lower QQQ 680 200 SMA before we go higher. Will see.

english_fool

Spy 200 SMA for example

shmito17

NVDA is the market. They bought at the end of the session to keep it above its 200 SMA. I have a feeling this week will be green.

jcpopm

Your title seems to imply the Nasdaq is under the 200 SMA, and it isn't. It actually had a decent bounce up before even touching it. Your Google argument makes no sense because it's Gemini that is killing their own search revenue, all they need to do is monetize Gemini which they haven't done yet. No argument against the free cash flow issue, it's definitely a problem. Intel's main issue is memory prices, where you decided that their "chips are obsolete" I don't know. That doesn't even make sense. They are a fab. They create chips. What are you even talking about, lol? Their entire issue is memory pricing causing demand destruction on the consumer side, nothing to do with AI. SanDisk I follow very little, but again, the argument that "hyperscalers are cutting hardware orders" has absolutely no basis in reality. In fact, every single hyperscaler that has reported has suggested significant increases in capex next year. It's definitely a bubble, 100%. Whether it is over now or not remains unclear. But at least use arguments that are based in reality, don't just make shit up.

A_Credo

The QQQ has had six 20% drawdowns since inception (1999). That is one 20% drawdown every 4.5 years. The market just ran hot for the last 4 years. The market also likes to pull towards the 200 weekly SMA on major drawdowns. We are potentially staring down the barrel of the early innings of a drawdown to \~$500 on the QQQ.

lupinle1

QQQ touching its 200 SMA. Time to buy?

shmito17

NVDA 200 SMA at 204. If it reclaims that, smash calls.

joe4942

SPMO below the 200 day SMA.

lilian1011

I mean every stock can go as low as 0. Not saying that Reddit will go to 0. But how low can it go it’s how many traders got burned. Wait for it to show a support somewhere, test a SMA, test a level and then enter.

CurrentAirline9065

since 10/01/26 $S5F1 (stocks above their 50 day SMA) is up 167% !! There is bullish momentum everywhere right now not in ai

shmito17

Broke 200 SMA - it's going down A LOT more

No_Presentation9490

This is why technical analysis is important. Google has been oscillating around a declining 50day SMA for months. The 50day SMA crossed under the 200day SMA and both are pointed downwards. That is the definition of a bear market. It takes hundreds of billions of dollars of shifting positioning to do that to a megacap stock like Google. Going long a stock that is clearly in distribution mode and a bear market is how you catch knives and drawdowns

jonlachmann

Connecting an AI to the right data and tools makes a difference. I built a financial MCP called Analyzera, and I was able to get Claude to calculate the 200-day SMA using QQQ historical data. We don't currently support the NDX index directly, so QQQ had to stand in for it. With this we could get measurements such as the 200-day SMA, but claude also willingly calculated how much above it it were at the last close. Full disclosure: I'm the developer, so obviously biased, but that's the kind of thing I'm trying to make easier with Analyzera. Let me know if you want to try it.

adasadas123

hi, best regards from Poland. Future company, with cycles, look on the opportunity. Right now we have a bearish momentum. Google will go down, it is sure, to big move up, and SMA50, 100 is to far away down, it has to go down. The value is not what you see, the price is in the deep sell off. There is a price, you will not see it. It is inner, deeply hiden. Bottom - 240 or 270 , or some between. we will see. The most important thing on google - be patient, and wait, look for retest and wait it bounce up.

shmito17

SMCI is about to shit the bed tomorrow. Closed at its 200 SMA. $30 incoming.

shmito17

SPY rejected the 55 SMA again today.

shmito17

SMCI will break 200 SMA.

CurrentAirline9065

US10Y gave up its 50 day SMA 😛😛😛

Alkemist101

There are variations. I have a standard DCA, however, if price falls I make extra buys. The idea isn't so much timing the market looking for the bottom, it's about trying to reduce your average price cost with trigger points such as prices crossing the 50 day SMA or 200 day SMA etc. Things to look up are Value Averaging (VA), Dynamic DCA / Smart DCA, Martingale / Grid Averaging.

seviniryusuf

Much better, yes, but not because the model gets smarter. The reliable pattern is: the model works out what's needed, a tool fetches the real prices, plain code does the maths (an SMA is just the average of the last 200 closes), and the model only explains the result. Then the number is exactly right, and the AI part is the explanation. When a general chatbot gets it wrong, it's usually because it's guessing from memory instead of working that way.

shmito17

Every tech stock would be in the gutter if it drops another $25 to the 200 SMA.

whatthewhat_007

Okay, thanks. Now I understand why it cannot generate the answer. I'm still not satisfied with the fact that it can't do it. I don't routinely look up SMA or really any technical indicators. That's my issue, and the reason for the post. If there's things I want to use AI for, that I'm not routinely using it for, I think it's problematic if I need a tool or plug in and another source to connect Claude to, just to get one single data point.

seviniryusuf

That's less about a bubble and more about what a language model is. Unless it's connected to a live data source, it has no market data. It predicts plausible-sounding text, so when you ask for a specific number it will confidently produce one that looks right and isn't. Anything that needs current prices or exact calculations has to come from a real data feed, with the model only explaining the result. Whether the valuations around AI are a bubble is a separate and fair question, but "it can't recite today's SMA from memory" isn't the evidence for it.

joe4942

Intel right at the 200 SMA now too.

joe4942

SMH getting close to the 200 SMA.

joe4942

CHAT and AIS, two of the top performing AI ETFs, now below the 200 SMA.

canxkoz

Mega caps are checking 200SMA is rejecting

dexBasedProtein

let QQQ come to the 200 daily SMA and look to buy there

AStandUpGuy1

Nothing good happens below 200SMA

shmito17

767.41 is SMA 55 - if we close above it, then we're 100% back. Institutional support!

JustLurkCarryOn

SPY is dropping because it couldn’t reclaim and hold the 50 day SMA yesterday. That has been support for a looooong time now, big money sees the sign that there is still weakness in the market and will act accordingly.

Cav829

The last convincing since last week. Unless we reclaim a meaningful level like the SMA50, it'll just continue to be counter-trend rallies. At least SPY isn't as dreadful looking as the Nasdaq though.

CurrentAirline9065

SPX crossing below its 100d SMA

zxc123zxc123

Stop losses are more like execution points rather than borders. Much like resistance price points, percentage moves, and support levels. Real borders are lines like SMA and price so the only crosses that matter are golden or death. Not understanding why is also why so many folks on WSB lose so much money.

Weak-Course-4366

Sup, evryone! For me i feel like $MU is trying to find force, i feel like were gonna have a bear trap like at 912 then go down to 810, head first, and thennn i would like to see it bouncing and pircing the 50SMA; or may be we're screwed if passes the 810. Anyway let me know what u think

richard-b-inya

Are you sure the 200D on the Qs is at 703? I have 673. You using EMA or SMA?

Unlucky_Goat_1678

It’s because QQQ actually broke through the 50SMA and did not recover by close. All throughout the past year, we would always bounce there. Which is leading people to wait until the 200SMA which is about $703. I can see Asia taking us to $703 for pre-market and us bouncing at open

DingoMaximum7319

DCA, switch to 100% VOO below 200 SMA, 1% tolerance band. Its been above most of the year though and the 60% doesn’t include money I added this year

TheOpeningBell

You can have actively managed SMAs. Imagine you own an S&P SMA. Let's also say you already own 1MM of MSFT stock. So number 1, direct indexing is also about screen outs so you screen MSFT out of your SMA as you don't need more. Then to your question let's say there's a correction in NVDA, GOOGL, AAPL, and say AMZN. 1. Sell those positions at a loss. 2. Buy an ETF that has the loss positions at a decent weighting so portfolio direction exposure is roughly the same. 3. Wait 31 days. 4. Sell the ETF, and re buy the individual positions. Signed, CFP in the industry with years of SMA experience.

greytoc

I saw what you said. I was pointing out that your examples aren't relevant because the accounts that lost money and were tied up were not brokerage securities accounts. The risk of a brokerage account being tied up isn't zero but it's actually pretty small if you look at recent failures. My only personal experience with dealing with a brokerage insolvency was with Lehman - and even back then - brokerage accounts like SMA's were not impacted. The actual transfer took some time - but customers didn't lose access to their accounts and investment managers who were sponsored through Lehman's SMA programs were still able to trade for their customers. Source - I worked on that transition.

shmito17

Closed below the 55 SMA. Not a good sign at all.

Fit-Argument854

NBIS broke below 200 SMA lol What a beautiful slide

shmito17

767 close, it'll reclaim the 55 SMA. what a fraudulent market.

SirHolyCow

Good chance the 200D SMA will get tested

joe4942

CHAT ETF almost below the 200 SMA for the first time since 2025.

CurrentAirline9065

i think its funny AppLovin trades at 20 P/E with growth numbers in EPS/Sales/Margins/ROE that resemble Palantir. I'm buying this shit at its 500 day SMA lol

albertsportsnet1

Before I don't have a consistent way of trading too. So the results varies greatly. Now I use a handful of technical indicators such as RSI, SMA, EMA and MACD plus support and resistance bands to form reminders. Those reminders sit between my ideas and my orders. These reminders help me be consistent as I execute orders under same conditions every time.

Willing-Painter85

I assume you were overconfident and didn’t set your stop loss to breakeven Can’t underestimate the bulls at daily SMA levels bro

Cav829

Well now we get to find out if this was a bulltrap retest of levels (we pretty much kissed the SMA50 on the QQQs) or if there was anything more to this rally.

BladeFireQ

NBIS at the SMA200 maybe an absolute buy it I might lose all my money who knows

CurrentAirline9065

$BTC starting to land on it's 1,000 day SMA, great liftoff point with russia/iran adppting bitcoin and the US trying to enable stablecoin adoption to replace soverign bond buyers

userguide22

Someone smart said SPY 22SMA is 769. We are below that now…

Wapmen

Bought some SPX calls for Friday, lets hope it holds 50 SMA bruh

ThanksDependent1001

Bro, you are using the SMA. The 200 SMA and 200 EMA are different indicators. Both use 200 periods, but the EMA gives more weight to recent closing prices, making it more responsive to price changes. On a daily chart, that’s 200 trading days and wouldn’t be accurate.

FinePerformance1046

The Nasdaq bounced off the 50 SMA to the exact cent btw, that was what this entire day was about lmao

shmito17

765-766 SPY needs to hold SMA 55 or it's legit over.

looool_k_libtard

76% stocks declining today, 76% below 50 day SMA, 64% below 200 SMA. And there are people who are still like “ITS AT ATH HOW ARE YOU SO STUPID?? lmao market is fucking 10 total companies at this point and majority has been in a pretty severe correction since the summer.

shmito17

756 is inevitable now (a cute meet at the 55 SMA)

shmito17

Hit the 22 SMA and bounced. Good sign.