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Homebuilder sentiment goes negative for the first time in 7 months, thanks to higher mortgage rates
B of A bank just announced: Stop buying our stock, in a BEAR MARKET it's just gonna make it worse...
Why are homebuilder stocks priced like they are going out of business?
U.S. home builders less optimistic due to high inflation and supply woes
which put play is best this week? already posted idk why it got deleted smh.
what is the best put play this week?
what is the best put play this week?
[DD] $LEN - earnings run-up play for a non-meme WSBer
Mentions
My pick is TOL. They are a luxury home builder trading at 11 PE with low debt, a fuck ton of share buybacks, solid leadership. Lower interest rates and increasing wealth inequality should continue for the foreseeable future which is a solid tailwind. Solid upside with pretty limited downside. I'm up 22% but I would still call it a buy here.
In the sense of giving your money freely away to bag holders? ITB had a moment back in the 1st week of Sept 2025, but with sticky mortgage rates at least buy something broad like DHI or made to fit the current K-shaped economy like TOL.
I bet $50 ICE nuked TOL guidance. 5x 110P
Fck it TOL and SAIL. Godspeed
Gambling my life savings on a combination of TOL, CBRL, and PLAY calls.
Opened this morning: - Calls: TOL MAMA CAL ASO Not investment advice, subject to adjustment before market close today.
You gotta look a bit harder I think. TGT under 90 was nice. .I still think its nice at 97 with that 5% divi which is safe at only 50 percent payout ratio. Kenvue starting to look good as well. Canadian banks still have some room to run. (Though I think I wouldnt jump on this trade unless I was ok with 5-8% yearly growth) TOL and some builders. HE is a steal if you can wait Heico is expensive but shows no sign of slowing down. Lastly Israeli ETF EIS has been on a tear, no reason it cant keep going with potential deals from SA opening up eventually
To be clear US Stock Market? REIT plays will do well with the coming interest rate drops. You should see decent gains over 8 months. I just picked up TOL and I am researching home construction ETFs to park a larger amount.
Yup, full porting into TOL tomorrow. Rate cuts are going to push real estate further up.
Jesus. TOL for the last 3 months looks insane.
# 5 Stocks In The Spotlight: Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts Weigh In **Analyst**: Jay McCanless * **Analyst Firm**: Wedbush * **Ratings Accuracy**: 87% * **Latest Rating**: Reiterated an Outperform rating on **Toll Brothers, Inc**. [(TOL)](https://www.benzinga.com/quote/tol) with a price target of $165 on Sept. 5. This analyst sees around 12% upside in the stock. **Analyst**: Trevor Walsh * **Analyst Firm**: JMP Securities * **Ratings Accuracy**: 87% * **Latest Rating**: Reiterated a Market Outperform rating on **Zscaler, Inc.** ZS with a price target of $355 on Sept. 3. This analyst sees around 29% upside in the stock. **Analyst:** John Todaro * **Analyst Firm:** Needham * **Ratings Accuracy:** 87% * **Latest Rating:** Initiated coverage on **WhiteFiber, Inc.** WYFI with a Buy rating and a price target of $34 on Sept. 2. This analyst expects around 108% surge in the stock. * **Recent News**: On Aug. 7, the company prices its IPO at $17 per share. [https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/price-target/25/09/47550021/5-stocks-in-the-spotlight-wall-streets-most-accurate-analysts-weigh-in-4](https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/price-target/25/09/47550021/5-stocks-in-the-spotlight-wall-streets-most-accurate-analysts-weigh-in-4)
Agreed. I like the short term downside and then for long term strength I like home builders and will look for entry’s on TOL HD LOW FNMC and a few others this week..
Cashing out of TOL. Anyone bought TEM calls? Those ripped to the upside.
I'm hoping it pulls a TOL. TOL was down after earnings and rebounded the next day. Hopefully ZM has some massive sell off or something and starts dipping by the afternoon.
those are good tickers for a rate cut and breakout setup. Only problem is the real rate cut decision is on the 4th sept. Friday will be a nothingburger day. 2 more weeks to go I'm in on TOL and PHM sept regular calls
Is TOL cooked or cooking.. I can't tell
What's happening with $TOL
Will TOL crash tomorrow? Why would anyone buy a fucking TOLL BROS or BEAZER or DRHORTON home is beyond me fucking pieces of shit Just like Home Depot -- their lumber looks like my ex's cock...FLACCID AND 30DEG angle
Cmon TOL you can drop another 7% again
Anyone load up on TGT? I won't touch it. Very interesting to see if they are going to be thrashed by tariffs. Liking TOL for the gap overnight.
Going with PUTS on JHX, SQM, and TOL for earnings.
Going with THX Puts and TOL Puts for earnings.
TOL calls, EL calls , ADI calls, TGT puts🙏
Started disappointed holding some mid term QQQ calls, dumped, picked up 1dte puts a long with some EL and TOL puts and it certainly turned the day around.
Home builders going higher on a down day. XHB. PHM, TOL
Considering adding a sizable position ($300) in TOL to my portfolio based on no research, just vibes. I’m basically Warren Buffett.
I'm considering TOL puts myself, I feel like housing data and interest rates are predicting a really bad quarter for them. ZM I'm not sure about, I might buy a straddle at close
My dark horse prediction is the rate cut mob will continue their victory laps until the July cpi data comes in screaming hot and rates go straight back up. Very hard to imagine Powell ending up looking like the dumb one. Seriously contemplating XHB and TOL puts
Not really a formula per sey… 1) Housing and mortgage markets are REALLY out of favor 2) But housing demand is off the charts 3) The housing market needs a spark 4) That spark has come in two forms: the prospect of lower rates is here with Powell gone in under 8 months now. Trump will install someone who will lower rates. Second, DHI reported solid earnings today that beat 5) The entire housing complex responded today from TREX to BLDR to TOL to RKT 6) Last, one week ago the chart showed a Bollinger squeeze which means buyers were roughly balanced with sellers… AKA the sellers were mostly out 7) Last last, a float that is 51% short is like kerosene, especially when an industry and stock is just beginning to turn
You want to further short the housing market? How low you think it’s going? I am more likely going other way. HD, Lowe’s and TOL or LEN. BLDR also. As for number 3, I am taking opposite side of trade. I also don’t think tariffs end up being the impact people think. Where is the early evidence of that?
Rich people have more money to spend -CFRUY, LVMH, TOL, BF/A (rich people drink, and this is very low in price)
TOL, and they're rallying hard right now
My TOL 95P are toast. Luxury homes are up...
TOL is extremely cheap at this price
KBH, LEN, DHI, TOL and XHB all going to feel pain
Load up puts on home builders KBH, LEN, TOL, DHI
Home builder stocks like KBH, LEN and TOL are about to take a brutal beating
After going 3 for 3 this week on TOL, ETSY and CVNA puts, I am going to buy Dropbox calls and Rivian Puts..
Sold my TOL puts for a 500 dollar profit, but got-damn, the pricing was frustrating on that one. Home-building really is fucked going forward, with the triple-whammy of lumber prices about to skyrocket, half the profitable labor is being chased away by ICE, and fewer and fewer people being able to buy homes as inflation moons due to tariffs.
should I sell my TOL puts at market open? Thoughts?
Keeping it factual, they didn’t say when “Fed cuts rates”, they said “as mortgage rates come down”. Fed rate is not the same thing as mortgage rates. Also on a factual basis, TOL and other major home builders have had absolutely epic multi-year rally.
surprised no one mentioned TOL earnings...not good. homebuilders have really been annihilated the last 6 months...which is surprising, since the CNBC 'experts' all said housing stocks would do very well once the Fed cuts rates
I hate TOL. Got assigned 100 shares after their last ER and it's been a drag ever since.
Shoulda bot those TOL poots
Looks like my TOL puts might print assuming things don't turn around by morning. I read that the conference call with guidance is 8:30am ET tomorrow?
If TOL misses earnings and guides down, the whole sector (and IWM) will collapse. IWM 226p 02/28
Picked up some TOL calls for earnings tonight. Because lumber costs are about to soar, and half their workforce will be chased off by ICE, and no one except Blackrock can buy new houses. Somehow, that will be bullish, and will jump 10 bucks.
Put on TOL, tariffs and labor shortages will make building home harder and more costly. Already down 20% since election with no relief in site.
I'm 20. My current portfolio is roughly 80% equities and 20% cash. I don't own any indexes right now because I agree that they are quite expensive but I still see some good opportunities in certain sectors (homebuilders are really cheap both historically and based on their growth, I particularly like TOL). I don't really have many obligations so it's not the end of the world if my portfolio is volatile right now. I feel like the market is mispricing a lot of stuff right now. 0 growth giants trading at 35 PE and strong growth stocks like Google trading at low 20s PE. I like Peter Lynch's approach of stock picking plus it's just fun to research companies and find opportunities.
I have $TOL and $PHM which of both been losing a fair amount of value in the last few weeks
RENT and TOL fucked me over good. Decided not going to fuck with anything that isn't tech or AI. Nothing else makes sense in this weird ass market
Welp, looks like i lost on ORCL and TOL. What's tomorrow's move to recoup these losses?
TOL earnings: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/toll-brothers-reports-fy-2024-213000486.html
TOL down over 2% 😞😞😞😞….despite nice beats on top and bottom lines….
What's going on with TOL? Have the earnings results posted yet?
TOL giving me a heart attack after hours with down/up
what is TOL earning report time?
TOL better print for me. I've got a rough couple days of gambling to make up for losing both my shirt and pants today
TOL better make up for Oracle today
ORCL and TOL better print for me overnight
ORCL, TOL, RDDT calls
DHI is the largest homebuilder in America! They build in 36 states and across all major cities in US. With affordable homes, you would imagine they would be selling like hotcakes in this high rate environment. We will see how Toll Brother does. Lennar is reporting next week. If TOL does good, than I am buying call options on Lennar.
$DHI builds "affordable" homes in rural/low-income areas (West Virginia, Rural Kentucky, Rural Virginia, etc). You can't really compare them to the area/homes that $TOL is building. $LEN is also mixing it up too much with low-income area. $TOL is almost exclusive to high-income, luxury home building. Your points are certainly valid, but I don't think we'll see the same sort of guidance with those as we'll see with $TOL.
How did you update it on all the prices manually? For me, it's still listing MDB, Autozone, oracle, and AI as the top for calls and TOL, Yext, DB, Hrp, and Academy for puts.
TOL's been crushing earnings consistently - [beat revenue expectations 8 times straight by an average of 8.8%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/toll-brothers-tol-reports-earnings-070313912.html). And they're not just some random builder. These guys are straight dominating luxury homes in the hottest markets. They just raised their full year delivery guidance by 100 homes and bumped up their average home price by $10k to $975k. Margins looking thicc too - 28.8% last quarter, crushed expectations by 110 basis points. The housing shortage is real and TOL's got prime real estate in places where rich folks actually want to live. Interest rates dropping below 7%? Rich people buying $1M+ homes don't give af about rates anyway. Your calls looking juicy rn. This thing's gonna print. 🚀
PUTs on TOL would be a weird play. We're in a housing crisis - short 4.5M-7M homes across the U.S. and the Toll Brothers are selling everything they can build. Forecast is probably going to be extremely positive and share price will likely rise.
chatgpt wants: # Highest Conviction Overall * **Puts:** Oracle (ORCL), [C3.ai](http://C3.ai) (AI). * **Calls:** Toll Brothers (TOL), with cautious optimism for MongoDB (MDB). These predictions balance valuation, sentiment, and recent performance trends. Before I updated it on all the prices manually (its always stuck in the past) it wanted ORCL calls. haha this is gonna be spicy with the sub balls deep >\_<
All I know is hope $TOL keeps ripping (slowly)
GME cooking. PNC and RCL have been solid for me too. Also think TOL will pump into earnings but I’m not sure they’ll beat this time. Just wanna share something other than the usual.
And home builders! TOL to the moon!
Jesus what happened to TOL this morning?
Shoulda held my NVDA calls longer not that I’m complaining. TOL really fkd up an otherwise great day. Anyone know why TOL dipped?
Short catastrophic insurance bonds. Buy building supply (HD, LOW, WMT) and home builders (TOL, PHM, DHI, LEN). Florida produces a lot of citrus and sugar, perhaps those get disrupted.
TOL, PLTR, and NU are three stocks up at least 40% YTD.
I'll give you some real-world examples of what I mean exactly: 1. Trader buys APO 16 jan 26 185C for 2.10, 90 360 contracts (18 975 600$). Share goes 11% up and contracts are 4.15 worth. I don't understand how MM profited on this. MM gained from the spread and 11% stock gain. So being delta-neutral MM didn't lose any money and just gained from the spread? 2. Trader buys TOL 20 sept 120C for 3.93, 4088 contracts and sells 100P for 1.78 3894 contracts. 3h later stock is -1% and 120C costs 4.20. It doesn't make sense. Trader could sell some contracts for 9% profit. On 20 sept stock is +32%, 120C contracts are 33.00, 100P are 0.00. Trader gained +12 069 972$ from the trades. How did MM gained from this? The puts he sold went to 0. Thanks
Because the current homebuilders are not dumb. LEN, DHI, TOL, etc all don't over build. They know when rates are high, don't build as much or at all. They are all priced around 10-12 PE like banks/financials. They are producing a lot of FCF and doing buy backs. Honestly been trading them and making money, never short.
RUN & TOL sign exclusive agreement for RUN to install panels and be a “one stop shop”
That's basically 100% wrong for bull call spreads/bear put spreads. Even if the underlying goes above the short call or below the short put--like, multiple spread widths above or below in many cases--the spread rarely gets to its full value until shortly before expiration. Yes, you can close it early if you aren't confident that the short leg will stay ITM, but you only get a fraction of the spread width when you do so. For example, my 18 Oct BRK.B 435/445 is at 8.82, less than halfway from the 8.05 I paid to the 10 I'll get at expiration, even though the underlying closed Friday at 455 and change. Likewise, the GOOGL 18 Oct 150/155 is at 4.45, even though it closed Friday at 163.59, over 1.5 spread widths above the short call. If I followed your advice, I'd give up over half of what I'll get at/near expiration. TOL is over 2 spread widths above the 18 Oct 135/140, but the spread is less than 15 cents above the purchase price; that's ***1/7*** of the return at expiration if TOL stays above 140.
Did you sell on the pop, hope you did thats the pop i was waiting for? I sold a bit too early, I only made $134... at the height could have bagged $3400 O well I bought TOL $150 Calls expiring next week right after Powel dropped the .50 and sold those on a nice pop.
That's some great info! Have done my DD on both but was leaning towards $TOL. Will reconsider and do some more research, but I very much appreciate your input.
What do you like better about $DHI? I just see at as more expensive then $TOL, and feel it has run up more. Feel like $TOL is the better growth stock. Appreciate your input.
TOL is great, but if you have to ask the question, you would be better off with XHB or ITB or both. Homebuilding is a longterm winning industry and has short term positives, but no one company is a sure thing.
Generally, I like buying stocks with a lot of momentum though. Especially when it's extremely cheap as $TOL is right now.
Lumber is up, but lowering interest rates which lowers mortgage rates will inevitably be good for TOL
Research $TOL's financial health, growth potential, and industry trends before adding it to your portfolio.Diversify to manage risk.
Oh, $TOL, stepping into the wild world of homebuilders, eh?Make sure you've got your hard hat on for the market's roller coaster.