UST

AfterDarkAsset

You're correct in that demand has gone up - for both short & long term UST's. That demand is, however, from private buyers. Particularly noteworthy is the shift in demand for long term. From institutional buyers (like Central banks) to private players. I think this actually supports the thesis that US Treasuries are now being seen less as stable assets that institutions like to hold long term and in turn provides further stability to these bonds. A virtuous cycle. Private buyers are more profit focused in the short term and they will play treasuries with that goal in mind. I think, more fundamentally, the issue here is that the underlying global financial order/system itself is under question now. In the short term, momentum makes it seem like everything is fine on the surface - but countries are already making plays to reduce reliance on US Treasuries. You're starting to see the cracks but hard to say how it will fail - catastrophically or gradually. Or when it will fail. My hope is that these cracks are surface level and can be mended, as can the trust in US financial institutions /policy and the stability of US political system itself. It's all very deeply intertwined ofcourse.

FuckingJPMAlgos

Can someone explain this "my representatives will buy mortgage bonds worth $200B" thing like I am a regard? Will the US treasury buy 30yr UST bonds? Why the fuck would this pump $OPEN?

Worth_Transition5188

UST backed by Venezuelan oil

pmotiveforce

Imagine shorting silver when it's got massive industrial demand, the dollar is being debased, and the world is telling the USD/UST to fuck off. Not saying we might not have more fake sell offs like yesterday, but it will be higher in 1 month than it is now by at least 10%.

yayahi

no. luna was algo linked to it's stable coin, UST, so when UST debugged the entire mechanism of the coin kept burning itself. zcash is not linked to any stable source: im regarded

SHIBashoobadoza

Everything is computer but electricity has been removed from CPI basket. US has $9T debt rollover to do next year at 3.8% so they need that number lower. Stable coins forced to hold UST as assets. The computers took er jerbs

MyPolaina4ever

It went from -100 to +50 like 3 times today (UST100). Free money, up and down.

PurpleReign123

This is what happens when a country implements YCC: easy to implement but difficult to exit without disastrous consequences. BOJ started YCC in 2016, to keep 10-yr JGBs at zero, or slightly negative yields … when inflation rears its ugly head, they had to widen the YCC band … The US (via Bessent) is also thinking of YCC as one of its options to lower UST yields. But given a larger fraction of USTs are held by foreigners (than JGBs), the after-math would be even more disastrous. That’s not a worry for Trump nor Bessent because they will not be at the helm anymore but the American public will be the ones left holding the bag.

Inittowinit1104

Where’s your income earning instruments ? One global event like a dirty bomb and you lose 50% of your net worth or more. Where’s your hedge ? Gold? UST? That account is fine as account B. Yeah you “trade”it , but you need an account A - which is at least 40% income and 99% protected. Too many bull years have really distorted people. Shit happens. It’s not if but when. Imagine you lose your job for a few years. That income earning account can carry you hopefully. Your trading with absolute BULL care scenario. Doesn’t work that way.

Walternotwalter

The carry trade doesn't just involve bond arbitrage. You borrow yen to buy assets. It's not just borrowing Yen to buy UST's. DXY just broke its 200 DMA. First time in a long while. Japan is trying to reshore capital. "Carry Trade" doesn't encompass the reality of why US stocks have been hitting a wall despite good earnings. Neither does rising Japanese rates. They contribute but there isn't a single reason. Rising rates generally strengthen a currency but the Yen is falling. Why? Because the US will have to intervene with swap lines based on non negative real rates due to how the JCB has monetized such a massive portion of Japanese government debt. Their bank reserve requirements have been lowered. The government wants big growth regardless of inflation. My answer stands true. Smart money is going to head to Japan rather than the overpriced AI circle jerk here in the US building data centers that can't be turned on unless power plants are built. But I am actually trading on Tokyo. I will not just buy the Japan ETF and have my gains destroyed by SoftBank.

mbacandidate1

You typed a lot of words to say that people have favored risk assets in the past few years and are now favoring lower risk assets (bonds, cash, value). You have brought no value to explaining why this is occurring, which is what truly matters to understand where we will go from here (risk on vs risk off). The reason is a global drain on liquidity (fed net reserves from tga build up, reverse repo draw down, and QT along with Japanese increasing yields turning off the yen carry trade) AND increasing risk to a continuing jobs / housing market deterioration (2yr UST tanked and probability of a Dec cut increased with the massive jobs data we received). Go back to conserving with your AI.

LionRivr

If you mean CPI or PCE inflation, sure. But we know those numbers don’t accurately reflect reality. And what actual retail investor is buying AAA bonds? Treasuries do not outpace currency debasement. The dollar loses purchasing power faster than the 4 or 5% you can get with any bank CD or UST.

Inittowinit1104

Pick 15 stocks. Make sure they are liquid in options , make sure you have some interest in them and make them your universe. Learn the feel , pe, where and how they trade vs index moves , how the react to earnings or tariff etc. blows my mind when I see my partner screening 250 names looking for something then goes nuts when something happens and doesn’t know what’s what. 15 names in enough to find an opportunity everyday in at least 2. All you need. You should spend 51% of your time focusing on index vs vix, index vs 10 year UST or gold or bitcoin. Stop chasing shit you have zero feel for. You will thank me later. Absolutes? Never. I’ll hop into hood puts or crwn after a good report but down 30-40%. I have cnbc and Bloomberg tv on all day to start up with all names.

robis87

since you bozos removing everything from Posts, here you go 3 pages here Thinking of starting to DCA in size into Dutch long end. I‘m European so no UST for me – currency + trump risk for foreigners. But in essence DM correlation along the curve is pretty close to 1:1, albeit structural differences, liquidity etc and barring systemic shocks. Netherlands seem to be better positioned to take on most of the structural longer-term headwinds countries like Germany or France are facing – debt and fiscal spiral, social and political turmoil, relatively safe from the geopolitical risks. Being a small country, they are 5th GDP in the EU, financial and tech center, -1% decificit, 45% debt to GDP. Below will provide my thesis with both arguments and possible counter-arguments/hesitations. **Main thesis** – we are in a clearly deflationary environment: economy slowing in Europe for a few years now, even longer in China and starting to slow rather rapidly in the US too. Unemployment, esp underemployment growing surely. Inflation seems to be sticky only in a limited areas of economy. Plus, the influx of cheap Chinese goods into the EU. ***Then again,*** Europe is much later in the cycle, and in theory inflation might bounce. But in reality it’s more likely the US slow-down will be sharper, faster and might even bottom out sooner than the European. **Also**, the elephant in the room – stock market bubble and the potential credit crunch from the shady private credit, equity, regionals and commercial real estate (again, mainly in the US). **Plus,** it’s hilarious to see European stock market valuations completely detached from the economic reality. They pumping simply and purely because the Nasdaq is pumping. ***Another counter-argument*** \- it‘s pretty clear trump starting to panick at every market downturn, even with stocks -2% from ath (Sunday’s stimy shitposting goes to prove that). Point being, that he’ll probably do a lot of stupid, reckless inflationary shit once the real crisis arrives trying to grow his way out of it. So this one is somewhat twofold – inflationary/credibility risk for the long end; **but** EU core/EUR could be viewed as a more stable alternative. ***The last headwind*** I see for my strategy is the Dutch pension system restructuring where their 36 large pension funds will decrease substantially their EU’s long end acquisitions over the next 2 y. Could translate in at least EUR 200B of lower demand. Might not seem a lot, but different European long ends not the most liquid assets on earth, so defo not a plus. Thoughts and your own strategies?   **TL;DR:** Thinking to go big into core EU/Dutch long term bonds because of the deflationary environment we in/entering.

Inittowinit1104

lol. You’re a bitter mouse Mr. I have absolutely ZERO problems w saying I’m wrong and giving kudos to the rights. In a nutshell. End year 680 after 650/685 ranges in spy. After first week of January at some point testing 640-645 the following months and by mid year back to 675-685. Clear enough? For qqq following same pattern with higher highs/lows. Bitcoin might break 112k by year end but we might see 89k through next mid year. Recoup won’t be above 100k but mid high 90’s. UST will range 4.18/3.74 closer to the latter by mid next year. Nvdia will re test 211$ and 184$ but probably right around 205$ by mid next year. Best performer RELATIVE to its own historic volatility and price action will be APPLE. A slow unsexy dud. Newsom/AOC ticker will emerge and Spain will win the World Cup. Anything else 🤓😶‍🌫️😜?

Inittowinit1104

I never sell calls. Although I have a CFa and a series 7 they tend to complicate my life. After years my list is now 15 stocks , 6 indexes and vix and UST. After years I know them all by heart tick for tick. I see a divergence and I hit it. Only way for me.

EnvironmentalPear695

At least instead of the UST being the igniter of money, everything can flow into the giant money furnace of AI.

BranchDiligent8874

Not if his short strategy backfires though. That said, Michael may have kept 100 million in UST bonds separately, he is doing most of the adventure using OPM.

Inittowinit1104

Aversion to following UST bonds, junk bonds and things like equal weighted indexes. If you’re a fast money dte guy and you don’t follow these your cooked.

Brawmethius

Bessents homies bought tons of Argentinia bonds dirt fucking cheap. Then they got dirt fucking cheaper, and suddenly the UST will do literally "anything" to save their currency (bonds).

cwep2

I’ve recently started to take profit on gold though after this massive bull run. I had 10% as of 2020, upped that to 15% in 2022 when US/EU started seizing Russian assets (thinking CBs would diversify UST > Gold) and then to 20% when it broke the long term resistance level around 2000-2100 in March 2024. Just reduced it down to 20% again which meant selling around a quarter of what I had.

InquisitorCOC

Yes, this is how you make the big money Right now the market is less than 2% from ATH, not that exciting The timing of this Chinese escalation is interesting though. Why didn't they stand tough back in April, when: - The US was fighting the entire world at once - Europeans were pissed at both trade war and Trump's stance Ukraine - USD, UST, U.S. Stocks were all in free fall - The Trump admin hadn't passed any meaningful legislation yet - Trump's policies were bogged down by local judges - DeepSeek driving deep doubts into the U.S. AI boom Now the situation is quite different: - DeepSeek R2, originally announced in late April, is being delayed again and again. [Difficulties reported in late June](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/deepseek-r2-launch-stalled-ceo-balks-progress-information-reports-2025-06-26/) still hasn't been resolved yet - US AI boom taking off to another level, along with massive new power generating capacities - Iran's air force annihilated by Israel, its nuclear facility destroyed by U.S., its 3000 ballistic missile stockpile exhausted after doing minimal damage - Arab countries and Turkey made peace with Israel, and stand firmly behind Trump - Trade deals with its Allies done - United front in Ukraine against Russia - OBBB passed and money for his agenda there - District courts and SCOTUS mostly ruling in his favor - USD is stabilized, UST is Trump's position is significantly stronger than 6 months ago

Terron1965

He is backstopping insurers the UST is just the safest way to store it when not deployed

Mr-Lungu

Yeah. But if you have assets - like stocks and real estate- you are smiling. A smaller percentage of your income goes to bread and milk and your asset growth is easily beating that. That is part of the reason why real estate has gone through the roof. Money printing goes to the top. And so does a devaluing USD. You are right - it sucks for borrowers and bond holders but the banks do alright with interest and bond holders are buying gold now. I think recently foreign governments held more gold than UST for the first time in decades. They learnt the lesson.

PaperHandsTheDip

Why do people keep making new stables? We have quite a few that actually work (USDC, DAI, etc) that are low risk of depegging. The algo stable coins scare me tho (DAI falls into that bucket). They're often easily manipulated (see: UST / LUNA)

MarketCrunchAI

whats interesting is for all the dollar debasement conversation, the far end of yield curve hasn’t moved much (people still trust UST!) and gold breaking ATH.

jamez_eh

I'd argue the reason gold is at an all time high is because central banks have reduced UST allocation and are instead buying gold. Gold has real returns in other currencies as well, but it is because nobody wants to hold dollars and it is the best alternative to treasuries.

EquivalentPop7894

10 year UST crossing above 5% would be my guess.

TinyBreeze987

Yeah I’ll take my chances on the UST defaulting fully

HartbrakeFL21

2nd market open day in a row that CNBC refuses to show 10Y UST yields on their website.

kx____

Do you know where the biggest supply of money is currently coming from? The interest on US debt. It’s well over a trillion dollars per year. That money is being created by the UST in the form of Ts but ultimately translates to more money in the system.

Zealousideal_Ad5358

Intresting. There was some ROC, but overall the NAV went down about 40% between 1984 and 87, while the UST 10 yr yield declined from almoat 14% to around 7%. That still doesn't explain why the dididend income wasn't reported. I'm also still looking for how she disposed of the shares, whether it was a sale or finally all the capital was disributed. There were all kinds of funky tax loopholes back then. Who remembers "income averaging?"

Available_Common_126

If the market senses more risk in US treasury bonds for whatever reason (and rates go up), all other US rates will follow suit. If a government is more risky to do business in, all borrowing rates within that country will adjust for that additional risk. That’s why government debt (UST) are used as benchmark rates

Jeff__Skilling

> When the govt can't pay the military a decent wage, it will collapse. Which is extremely unlikely. If you don't believe me, just go look at UST yield spreads

SpectatorRacing

Treasury demand is not down, the narrative is false. Last week we had a blow out treasury auction. China is down, but China has been steadily reducing UST purchases for a decade and it has continued at the same cadence the last few years. No spikes.

AttractiveCorpse

UST

ButtStuffingt0n

Just wait until CPI and PPI come out next week. If the bond market thinks the Fed is cutting into an inflation spike, it's going to compensate with yield increases on the 10 and 30 year. Meanwhile, China, India and (shortly) Europe are going to continue pulling back on UST purchases to hold more gold. That will also put upward pressure on yields.

ImakeBADinvestmentsx

UST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇳 President Trump is reportedly considering blocking US tech companies from outsourcing jobs to

Fox_n_Roll

a digital currency pegged to the value of the USD. Only makes sense if You have enough funds to back it. Looking at You UST...

Sad_Chest1484

SOMA portfolio is massive (trillions). Any treasuries that roll off is money back into the financial system. If UST roll off exceeds $5bln a month which is the case they need to buy more treasuries to maintain the SOMA portfolio which is exactly what is going on. MBS portfolio will never wind down. That’s different and they want to avoid disruptions in the mortgage market. Now sir you can tell me I’m rightt or you are a true dumbass. This is LITERALLY my job in the financial industry

Sad_Chest1484

SOMA portfolio is massive (trillions). Any treasuries that roll off is money back into the financial system. If UST roll off exceeds $5bln a month which is the case they need to buy more treasuries to maintain the SOMA portfolio which is exactly what is going on. MBS portfolio will never wind down. That’s different and they want to avoid disruptions in the mortgage market. Now sir you can tell me I’m rich or you are a true dumbass. This is LITERALLY my job in the financial industry

DetroitPizzaWhore

Your Unity about to moon for a whole another reason.... https://youtu.be/6XGeJwsUP9c?si=UST3DZmvliW8TxvU the most anticipated game for 3+ years

PaperHandsTheDip

EOD lots of the big prop firms are manipulating markets. I see it all the time in crypto. It's just a question of how much, how much do they get away with & whats the punishment for being caught? For example - if you remember LUNA / UST? Turns out Jump Capital was manipulating it / artificially maintaining the PEG to attract investors into LUNA. It was a complete ponzi. Once it got big enough they pulled out and profited ~1.28b billion. The punishment? A mere ~$130m fine. They literally knew it was a ponzi, sustained it to attract naive investors / retail and pulled the rug on them. If you lost money on LUNA <- the culprit was jump. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/02/17/jump-crypto-is-unnamed-firm-that-made-128b-from-do-kwons-doomed-terra-ecosystem-sources All the big firms do similar shit. They usually just get away with it...

Successful-Tea-5733

There is a common misnomer that consumers are paying all the tarriffs, that's simply not true. I've said this many times, I am a US widget importer, I buy Widgets from South Korea at $5 a widget. Lets use a 20% tariff, so now for that same widget my net cost is $6, the $5 cost plus the $1 tariff my company pays to the UST. Well, I tell the company in Korea I'm going to start looking elsewhere for cheaper widgets. The Korean company say, well, lets instead sell the widget to you for $4.20 and then the net cost of the tariff is only 4 cents. Tell me again who is really paying the tariff? If you guys think I'm wrong, why do you think other countries are complaining about the tariffs? Seriously, explain that to me. When we put a tariff on China, they retaliated. Why? If it's just a tax on US consumers why would China care what tariffs we charge? They care because they know who ultimately pays the tariff.

CallLivesMatter

>Best Case: >TLT gains 50% to 100% from rate cuts on 66% of my portfolio If you had timed it perfectly in late 2018, when it seemed rates were going to rise, and then gotten your exit in July 2020 you’d have made ~50%. So basically you need to time your trade on two major events. “Best case” is probably too optimistic here. >Base Case: >AMD calls go to $0 if NVDA outcompetes AMD like in past AI failures such as MI300 >TLT rises as rates come down, which recovers the call premiums and results in break even in about 2.5 years Yeah, this is very close to the same as the best case in terms of what you need from TLT. You still need a ~47% increase in order to break even. >Worst Case: >AMD calls go to $0 >TLT drops because inflation spikes, resulting in a 30% loss there as well. This is unlikely in my opinion but possible. What sort of things could spike inflation again? Things like, I don’t know, another round of massive deficit spending? Or maybe inflation will rise if we deport a ton of the low cost labor that has been brought in to artificially cap wages across a wide band of industries. Or maybe the government imposes some huge new tax on the importation of goods from a handful of the largest suppliers of said goods. But those things wouldn’t happen, right? At least not all at once. This one should have been your base case. Inflation is already embedded across most consumer goods and it’s not coming down. The best weapon against inflation is a drop in energy prices since they are the major input cost for basically every non-service business on the planet. WTI is already pretty cheap here. HH nat gas is $2.96. When I left that business *11 years ago* it was…about $2.85. It’s not getting much cheaper from here. There is no obvious naturally deflationary forces that will arrest what was started in 2020. Betting against persistent inflation while simultaneously believing that the UST will become **more** attractive after racking another few trillion dollars into the deficit is, uh, bold. An actual hedge would have been calls on NVDA plus a basket of all the smaller competitors to AMD. That way if your theory of their growth trajectory is wrong you will capture some of the upside from anyone else who gets their market share (which let’s be honest, that means NVDA right now). However if your theory is correct then you still might not get completely wrecked on that basket since you could get a rising tide effect that pushes the whole space up before investors start to separate out the winners from the losers.

cutiesarustimes2

UST 30yr Auction Results: 4.813% 2.1 bps tail BtC 2.27 Indirects 59.5% 🤮

I_Own_A_Fedora_AMA

The market will probably continue the AI AI AI rally until one of these bearish catalysts manifests: 1. Oil spike on Russia secondary sanctions 1.1 Oil spike on Iran war 2. Long term bond yields spike because the Fed cuts and we get inflation fears 2.1 bond yields spike because there's Fed hikes in response to cooked data showing no inflation and infinite jobs 3. Bond yields spike because there's not enough liquidity/demand to absorb the new issues coming from record budget deficits, plus treasury has to make up for lost time when we hit the debt ceiling 4. Bond yields spike because the trade deals are real and foreigners sell UST to build factories in America. Sounds unrealistic at first, but from a foreign banks perspective UST is dollar denominated debt, and can be sold to originate higher yielding dollar denominated construction loans. 5. META, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA/XAI, the Saudis, or open AI announces cuts to planned NVDA purchases because they have better custom silicon 5.1 somebody cuts chip purchases because they give up on the AI race ala AAPL 5.2 somebody cuts chip purchases because investors don't see a realistic path to profitability ala META with the metaverse spending 6. Courts say tariffs are very cool and very legal (we have a decision from the appeals court coming this week, but if it doesn't legalize tariffs they will appeal and drag this out further) 7. China takes Taiwan and we blow up the chip fabs so they can't have them (SPY -70% in a week) So like odds are at least one of those will happen and my puts will be fine

lonely_biscuit

It’s unclear whether it’s a case of too high short term interest rates currently (mortgage rates are linked to the 30Y UST while the Fed only directly controls the short end of the yield curve) or if it was the long periods of QE which resulted in too low long term interest rates which then inflated house prices to a level that is unaffordable currently. Absent a massive shock like the GFC, house prices very rarely decline significantly (both a policy choice but also a structural aspect of the market being a home/shelter but also a quasi-investment asset). As such you could argue that rates are too high but also convincingly argue that house prices are too high - both driven by monetary and fiscal policy.

Fluid_Valuable_7867

Lost substantially in Celsius bankruptcy n Luna UST crash. Now back to break even mainly via gains from investing in cheap HK mkt.

Fuzzy974

So, citizens of the UST (United States of Trump), did you all receive your laters about those tariffs that you're going to have to pay?

Jeff__Skilling

> Who will buy this 37 trillion debt ? The entire market....? Don't believe me? Then go take a look at bond spreads between nation-states and tell me how the 10Y UST yield stacks up....

m0nsieurp

In 2022, the fiscal situation of the USG was different. I'm extremely worried about the recent USD sell off in the current context: ATH gold, ATH SP500, rising UST yields, out of control US budget deficit. One trillion USD a year of interest is NOT a sustainable trend.

Sean_VasDeferens

3 month UST's

banditcleaner2

Well, zimbabwean currency hyperinflates so fast that yes, he might be ok with holding his money in stablecoins because even the risk of the stablecoin going tits up is better to take on then guaranteeing his money loses half its value in one year. According to google, zimbabwean currency inflated at 92% in 2025. Lets pretend like Us-terra stablecoin collapses in the next month rather then how it did years ago. So if someone in zimbabwe bought USDT, UST, USDC, and another stablecoin, and he lost all of his money in UST from that coin depegging, he still comes out with 75% of his money, which is a lot better then holding his native currency and getting hyperinflated to shit.

ensui67

The dollar trades in a range and was extraordinarily high since the pandemic because of the strength of our economy and the Fed having to keep rates higher for longer, relative to the rest of the world. We are merely mean reverting right now. You need to look at a 30-50 year dollar chart for context. Government is still incredibly reliable to a fault. The Fed is hell bent on bringing down inflation at the cost of growth. They are likely overdoing it right now and I guess you can say in the eyes of treasury investors, we’re about as good as it gets. Follow the money. The money still goes into UST. Even stable coins are UST. Everyone in the world wants to transact in USD and by extension, UST. Corporate earnings are very good and capex spend on Ai is still just incredible. Major companies are simply incredibly profitable and now spending massive amounts on R&D. In the long run, stocks are priced based off earnings and flows. If this continues, it would not be surprising to see a third year of nice gains in the stock market. Every market needs its doubters for it to go higher. The outsized gains have to come from an inequality. Historically stocks just go up and to the right. Staying profitable means staying in the market. Doubts come and go, profits stay, for those willing to just sift through the noise for the signal. Many missed the boat in April. Are they about to miss the boat again? Stay tuned.

duqduqgo

I'll assume you mean the US treasury market, because there are many bond markets sovereign and corporate. bond market isn't signaling much of anything in my view. It's reflecting the changing values of global trade and adjusting for future spending all over the globe and US stability and interest rate change probability. The UST market has been in a range for a while now and the curve has been pretty stable. Once again an understanding of what drives currency values is critical. The greenback has been a reserve currency because when the US buys stuff from other countries we pay them in dollars. Those countries then have a lot of dollars because we buy a lot of stuff. They often keep the dollars because they have proven stable stores of value over time, and they buy treasures with those dollars as a HYSA, and the UST market is multiples of the size of any other sovereign debt market. All global debt and currencies are graded on a curve. Unless and until and to the degree that other countries buy more, are a better store of value, are more stable and pay better interest, the greenback will remain a reserve currency. The US is not going to default. If the US did default, it would be technical and very short term and not actual. The UST can print all the money it wants to service it's nominal debt and avoid actual default.

qw1ns

>PE ratio is insane I do not understand where OP sees insane P/E? * CRCL has 61.93 Bln in reserves in short term US Treasury. * Let us say 90% is held in US3M which gives 4.3% interest. * The make $2.396 Bln as income from UST ={ 61.93 \* (90/100) \* (4.3/100) } * Assuming 20% of income goes to all expenses/overhead (like banking industry), they earn $1.917 Bln * Current Market Cap is 40.15 Bln, then P/E = ( 40.15 / 1.917 ) = 20.94. If the circulation increases over an year (say from 62 Bln to 100 Bln), the P/E comes down

ThisKarmaLimitSucks

Mango will postpone everything and fold like a cheap suit, because he realized that foreign powers can just sell their UST holdings and blow him up if he really pisses them off.

Sean_VasDeferens

I keep my cash in three tranches of 90day USTs, so I have a tranche expiring every 30 days. The effective tax rate is a little bit higher than the actual rate since there isn't any state income tax on UST, which can be attractive if you live in a state with high income taxes. Also note that when rolling a tranche at IBKR you can do it the day before expiration and IBKR won't charge you any interest on what is essentially and intraday loan so you never miss a day's worth of interest. I'm 90% cash and make my living trading indexes, I hate stocks.

robotlasagna

One thing to remember is that long dated treasury yields do not consistently track the short end of the curve (which the FED controls). If you ever looked at the overnight rate vs UST30Y you would see that even when the fed lowered rates the 30Y didn't track down with it. And that makes sense; Long dated bond holders primarily want stability not yield. The FED can also buy long dated treasuries using open market operations but they they cant buy that much without printing money. If that happens we go back to high inflation.

555-Rally

This is what it is....DXY drop, US10T(+) yields. It's not the M2 that is rising really. It is, but not appreciably like 2020/2021 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL show 1Y vs 5Y). MMF however are growing...that's US DXY moving out of UST's and into cash and/or stock gains. There's a lot of cash on the sidelines ready to buy dips speculatively.

Possible-Rush3767

You're arguing for tax cuts for the rich versus funding of infrastructure and domestic manufacturing, all while this admin destroys social safety nets which will lead to more unhoused and a spike in violent crimes, which will require further defense spending. How stupid can you be? Did you check the UST bond auction today? We can't even get other countries to invest here anymore because of the instability inserted by this admin.

ObfuscatedSource

UST with no leverage is generally speaking used a highly liquid inflation hedge. With leverage is of course a totally different story, and applies mostly to longer bonds, such as the 30 year treasury bonds.

dweeegs

If I had a nickel every time someone said Japan was going to sell their UST’s then I wouldn’t be looking at futures on a Sunday night

thomgloams

Hey I'd agree with you if "US Stocks" meant most of US stocks. Or even 1,000 US stocks. Or even 200 US stocks. But for perspective, the total US Stock Market Capitalization is ~$52T - The Top 20 make up 47% of that - The Top 10 (Mag7 + BRK, AVGO, WMT) account for 38% - And just 3 stocks (MSFT, NVDA, AAPL) carry an astounding 20% of the entire US Market. Doesn't that seem like a bit of a crowded trade ? Also, watch the 10Y UST yield currently at 4.45% The Fed stopped hiking in July 2023, yet the yield continued upward to 5% in Nov '23. Then it meandered down to 3.6% while the Fed paused. Then as soon as the first CUT in Sept '24, strangely, yields went back up peaking at 4.8% in Jan '25. Then it gets real weird. Stocks went down slowly, then suddenly on so-called "Liberation Day" aka "Trump Tariff Tantrum Day". Yields went down in tandem. Makes sense, flight to safety. Ok so then we got the "We're not kidding!" then "lol just kidding!" from the WH. Confusing because stocks were in mega uncertainty (VIX hitting 60 {5 STDEV above the mean!}) so we'd expect yields to stay down as investors (globally) waited to see how this would play out. But instead they spiked. So if capital exited equities, exited UST, where'd everybody go?? - Gold - Bitcoin - DXY down bigly Finally, this brings us to "Tariffs back on, worldwide, but with exemptions for, well, everything" Except China. But China tariff back to where it was originally .. supposed to.. be ? I dunno I lost track of the on again off again relationship. Point being, stocks almost fully recovered after the walk backs 10Y back up to 4.45%. With GDP down, unemployment slightly rising, inflation low so far, it's anybody's guess from here. But if yields continue up 4.8% - 5.0%+ to me that signals deep discomfort in the bond market: US debt worries, fiscal concerns ($1T defense budget yowza) inflation uncertainty, possibly global de-risking but maybe de-dollarization as well. Either way, bond markets are the first to know. **TLDR Takeaway (only mine, I'm probably wrong, NFA, No one knows)** - Cautious but remain fully invested, watching 10Y for 4.8% - Diversified further into uncorrelated assets as much as possible - Underweight Mega caps (I'll probably get burned on that one) - Overweight US Mid Caps, ex-US Developed, Int'l bonds - Overweight Bitcoin (byproduct of asymmetric stacking lows, trimming at local highs) - Overweight SCValue (risky but tend to be more domestic based, less Tariff sensitivity) - TBD RE, UST, crypto, ? no change currently - Expecting overall lower earnings on S&P but it makes a new high then mean reverts, H2 ends under 6000. - focus on growing income, biz, lump sum windfalls, Strategic DCA on market structure. - Don't do anything stupid (that's a personal note cuz I always do at least one and I've used up my one stupidity mulligan allowed in 2025). Cheers

Brazilian-options

Who the fuck cares about what these nerds rate lol You are telling me the hundreds of billions bought in UST are not rated before being bought?

cantgetthistowork

Downgrade is a big deal because a lot of funds will have to dump UST if they're under a certain grade

m0nsieurp

The yield on the 10 year UST continues to rise. Which means bond investors (large institutions, pension funds, whole countries) are selling treasury bonds. The US government has to raise the yield to attract bond investors. You know how that works, right?

spyputs1

Ok big brains, what does it say when the Fed buys up the UST to cover debt the government can’t pay?

qroshan

Fed doesn't owe the money, but they can always print money and buy UST (including new issues). Next question please

BranchDiligent8874

Foreign investors maybe having a second thought about their capital in USD. This govt wants USD to go lower, already achieved that objective to some extent but they would like it go lower next year too. They also want long term rates to go lower and would pressure the Fed to buy 10 year UST bonds and maybe 30 year so that they can finance the govt debt at lower price. AKA, monetization of debt is their big objective. Foreign investors own around $25 trillion in US assets and most of the big overseas funds may be looking to take out 8-10% slowly and invest elsewhere. The big talking point is there is nowhere to be invested better than USA. Lets see if Europe figures their shit out.

bidhopper

My grandfather was very supportive and gifted some stock. He was a prudent investor and encouraged me to invest at an early age so I followed his advice. At that time UST was paying about me about $8K in dividends per quarter. I just followed his stock purchases and my portfolio grew.

greytoc

There are total bond ETFs like TOTL that you can use and you can leverage it using a short box. But I don't really see how that would work because the short box will be slightly above the risk-free rate. I guess it would also depend on what type of duration and credit quality you are looking at. There are also leveraged constant duration ETFs like TMF and UST. Leverage can be very risky though - I lost quite a bit during the orange-swan event.

m0nsieurp

Wait wait wait. Do you really think QE is going to turn things around? For the better? For the long term outlook of the US economy? To be honest, it's only going to kick the can down the road and worsen the financial situation of the US government. Short term dopamine, terrible long term consequences. First off, it's one thing for the Fed to lower rates and allow QE to happen. It's another for that debt to be bought. There was a post here last week showing most the auctioned off 10 year UST bonds were bought primarily by the Fed. Besides, let's not forget that servicing the US federal debt for the US government is becoming incredibly difficult. QE = more federal debt = an ever greater stock of debt to service. Let's look at some numbers published by the CBO. Debt servicing was the biggest expenditure in the 2024 US government budget with an eye watering 880 billion USD. CBO projections show that if the US government continues its borrowing and spending binge, debt servicing will climb to a whopping 1.8 trillion USD in 2035. https://www.pgpf.org/article/any-way-you-look-at-it-interest-costs-on-the-national-debt-will-soon-be-at-an-all-time-high/ > CBO projects that interest costs in 2025 will total $952 billion. > Over the next decade, the U.S. government’s interest payments on the national debt are now projected to total $13.8 trillion. > Net interest costs under CBO’s projections (which generally assume that current laws remain the same) would rise from $952 billion in 2025 to nearly $1.8 trillion in 2035. This is not the 2010s anymore. The US government can't print its way out of a recession. This trick has been used one too many times.

BranchDiligent8874

There is no solution to this problem. Back in 2000, you could put 50% in say UST ladder and it would have helped a lot. Also international stocks and bonds is needed now. IMO, we have been spoiled the past 15 years with outsized returns in stocks. We maybe reaching the point where profit extraction by companies will not work well since globally income/wealth equality has increased a lot the last 15 years. I would use at least 40% foreign assets. 60% US assets. Assets = both bonds and stocks. 60% stocks, 40% bonds(ladder with little bit of long duration like 30 years, but mostly below 5 years).

bawlin17

Did you even look at the 10-Q? Cash and equivalents is ~42B, short term investment in US treasury BILLS is ~305B. That’s the composition of the 347B. Page 3. Doesn’t include any 30Y UST at all or even anything longer than 1Y. Fixed maturity securities is $15B which is where 30Y UST would be. Of that $4B is UST and agencies. Page 18. So at most he owns 4B 30Y UST and it’s none of the 347B. He’s not buying 30Y treasuries that would be an insane amount of interest rate risk so your example doesn’t even make sense.

Dry_Personality8792

No, I bought a tiny amount of UST today but other than that - cash (money market ) . And I’m still up 106% yoy and don’t mind missing this nutty rally. I cash out in Jan. We will retest this years low before falling another 10 % from that level. You can make fun of me at Dec 25 if I’m wrong , or if right , just send me a dm if it happens before EOY.

robotlasagna

There's like only $1.2 Euros worth of bunds in circulation. EU cant handle issuing that amount of additional debt. They can definitely sell 10% and other countries do the same but the net effect is still the dollar depreciating against a whole bunch of other currencies and ultimately everyone selling UST has to put that money somewhere. Someone has to issue a whole bunch of debt and then service it and there is no appetite to do that by any country that is low risk.

robotlasagna

Japan cannot dump UST without appreciating their own currency. That would decimate their export market.

turndownfortheclap

I think investors have been fleeing to cash & cash alts for quite a while. Not 10yr UST…

Budget-Push7084

The markets typical reaction function is a safe haven bid when recession risks increase. Participants typically move out of equities and riskier bonds into UST. I’m sure you’ve heard of a 60/40 portfolio. One of the reasons for its construction is that one side of the portfolio ‘protects’ the other in the event of a downturn. To see money flee the ‘risk free’ asset during real economic turbulence is disconcerting and a symptom of US capital market disfunction.

Any-Side-9200

Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard, causing global panic and chaos. Currency exchange rates started to float and the now “worthless paper” USD was going to shit. The US asserted reserve status by more or less forcing countries to stockpile USD and UST under the threat of military force. Arguably this caused the governments behind the iron curtain to fall, because they borrowed “cheap paper USD” with variable rates, which then went into hyperinflation, causing these countries to be unable to make payments on debt and collapse. At the same time the stock market went haywire and collapsed in a historic crash from which the Nikkei just now recovered like 40 years later. So yeah we’ve seen far larger magnitude events than the bullshit cargo cult fascism and Fisher Price geopolitics trump is doing. And also look at Reagan and Clinton as far as shrinking government. Whereas Trump is just incrementally tightening the screw on Reaganite neoliberalism, Reagan actually destroyed the functioning social democracy from the new deal era, literally handing chunks of government to his billionaire buddies in a revolving door of corruption in the Oval Office. Clinton then took apart state owned utilities and handed them to capitalists, leading to rampant speculation in “energy markets” and the Enron disaster. And there’s more to talk about including the rampant Christian nationalism that is like 200+ years old and is fundamentally behind the KKK, tea party movement and maga, a nativist/isolationist movement that is bread and butter America.

Alone-Supermarket-98

China has (had) about $700bn in US Tewasurues. To put it into context...the UST market trades about $1.2tn in volume per day. That means Chinas entire holdings represent less than one single days worth of volume...its not even a speed bump.

Googgodno

Could China swap UST to Eurobonds or some other instrument to soak up excess dollar in its system?

Monkey_1505

They sold about 300B worth between 2021 and 2023. They've actually been doing this for years. They sold 50B in 2024. They've been moving into non-US bonds, and gold. But that doesn't help the US, particularly. Their currency is strong because they sell UST to other countries, and that 'hurts' their exports (but also funds their govt and elevates their standard of living). To solve that, the US needs to stop having a deficit.

Monkey_1505

Well, UST purchasing funds your govt overspending, and also inflates the value of your dollar relative to other countries - which along with your labor law protections and much higher standard of living account for the vast majority of any trade surplus. If you want to play hardball, you might start at home. Just not having a govt deficit at all, would be far more impactful that frustrating every trading partner in the world.

Monkey_1505

China's UST holdings are about 4.2% or so of GDP, not very high. Per economy size, there are many much larger holders of UST. Japan for example holds 1.1 trillion in UST, about 22% of their GDP. Belgium holds $331B, about 55% of their GDP. Looking at it, I'm honestly not sure how this thinking persists. Doesn't really make sense. For a country with an economy as large as China's their UST holdings are quite small.

Monkey_1505

Actually UST make up a really small percentage of Chinese GDP. The EU as a whole, a similar sized economy holds about twice as many. Common misnomer.

Monkey_1505

The US has a really big export called it's own spending addiction aka UST. So long as that remains the case (and it certainly seems to be under Trump with his planned 200B military budget expansion), their other offerings will be far less attractive. Blame other countries for that if you will 🤷‍♂️

Infohiker

Just using the current [AAA Bloomberg indices.](https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us). I prefer MMD or even MMA scales - Bloomberg's scale is still a work in progress, but getting better. Easiest to access for this conversation. But that is the AAA. There are still plenty of money good long munis trading cheaper. Mass St GO 5% of 2055 trading around a 4.75. They are AA but I have zero credit worries on State GOs. Go into essential service bonds like water/sewer and you can probably do even better. Your 3.90 guesstimate is not bad, to be fair. I think long term Muni/UST ratios are around 85-90%. But there are many times where munis get to 100% of UST in the long end. Times of volatility like now are one of them.

Infohiker

You are leaving money on the table. Approximately $5k over payment. Starting with $2.5mm 30yr Munis @4.52 = $113k, less max mortgage deduction forgone ($52,184) nets you $60,816 paying the mortgage and not getting a credit. 30yr UST@4.70 = $117,500. Taxable portion after deduction $65,316, tax is $9,422, net is $55,893 after paying your mortgage and crediting the tax. Assumes 6.99 mortgage rate on the $750k max allowance, and you owning in-state munis (no state tax). You need mortgage rates well over 9% to make your strategy profitable

LearningIsGoal

This is not true. The FED holds over $4T in UST. Buffet could never.

Monkey_1505

Worth mentioning that the biggest debt refinancing cycle in history is this year, Q4. That means historic levels of buying UST, which I assume will have some impact on USD.

Available_Leather_10

Xi: "Here's the deal: you go fuck yourself, and we and our partners (SK, JP, EU, Canada, maybe UK) sell all out UST holdings. OR, stop being a fucking idiot and we can do business again. Final offer."

es330td

Their holdings of UST are comparable to Japan’s around 7-8%. Most of the US debt is held by the Federal Reserve and domestic entities like insurance companies, pension funds and US registered mutual funds.

bonedocFR

There’s nothing behind the scenes. Everyone except Orange Man and his MAGA idiots sees how USA’s credibility is gone. Trump has ñissed off everyone and disrespected his allies that’s they are fed up and now scrambling without the US and that includes dumping UST bonds… this has weakened the dollar and now no one wants to do business with us. The homophobia and racist /anti-immigrant rhetoric has destroyed everyone’s confidence… I’m an immigrant and semi-conservative and agree in controlling spendings, no handouts and controlling immigration…but the way this Fucktard president belittles everyone is just terrible… and even taking up on China w tariffs is ok but don’t start with 40% and escalate to 215%… what a retard… anyone could’ve predicted how bad idea this was…and now that everyone is pissed at the US… good luck fixing that mess… and we all gonna pay for it!

Skiddler69

The biggest holder of UST’s is China.

SerKelvinTan

5% yield on 10 year UST

robis87

yeah, can call this coercion, strong-arming no one gives a f. Bottom line UST are no longer safe for multiple reasons. can only break 'full faith and credit of the US government' once. well no shit Dutch, Irish, Austrian or Swiss bonds are orders of magnitude safer. First of all, with all of it's shortcomings, EU still firmly abides by the rule of law and is democratic, and, most importantly, credible economic and monetary union. second, it's debt is nowhere near the apocalyptic levels of US, neither is debt dynamics. Third, it seems they are already cozying up alrite with the chinese, go figure the ramifications of this. And who's exactly a single important global ally of the us rn? dude, usd just broke multi-year uptrend, is at its 3 low, 30y at \~5% and indices in the death spiral. and this is all one man made, doesn't even begin to price in the bear market which would have come cuz of the structural problems without tariffs in play. so GL with you American exceptionalism lmao

jbourne56

There is no single UST bond since they are issued at a variety of tenors. What are you referencing for the swap market specifically?