UST

mskamelot

Actually it will moon War means flight to safety, which is USD and UST Also what makes you think Fed won’t ease to war?

gmr548

A 6 month UST currently pays ~5.3% and a 12 month pays 5.1%, risk free. I’d probably go with that or a better paying 6-12 month CD if you find one. Even the difference between a 5% and 20% return on $1k over a year is only $150. Not worth the downside risk to throw it in the market, IMO.

Levyyz

Dismissing the UST10y now are we. Maybe you want to have a look at my straws? Or are you going to ask Jamie what he's smoking? [Jamie Dimon, in his letter to JPMorgan Chase shareholders, was shaking up the internet a little this morning when he discussed the range of scenarios he envisioned for inflation over the longer term, and interest rates over the longer term – and the potential causes.](https://reports.jpmorganchase.com/investor-relations/2023/ar-ceo-letters.htm) But he also cautioned about running a business based on “economic prognosticating.” He said: “Instead, we look at a range of potential outcomes for which we need to be prepared. Geopolitical and economic forces have an unpredictable timetable — they may unfold over months, or years, and are nearly impossible to put into a one-year forecast. They also have an unpredictable interplay: For example, the geopolitical situation may end up having virtually no effect on the world’s economy or it could potentially be its determinative factor.” So here’s what Dimon said in his letter about inflation, interest rates, and QE/QT: “All of the following factors appear to be inflationary: ongoing fiscal spending, [“…occurring in boom times – not as the result of a recession – and they have been supported by quantitative easing, which was never done before the great financial crisis.”] remilitarization of the world, restructuring of global trade, capital needs of the new green economy, and possibly higher energy costs in the future (even though there currently is an oversupply of gas and plentiful spare capacity in oil) due to a lack of needed investment in the energy infrastructure. “ “Interest rates looking out a year or two may be predetermined by all of the factors I mentioned above. Small changes in interest rates today may have less impact on inflation in the future than many people believe.” “There is also a growing need for increased spending as we continue transitioning to a greener economy, restructuring global supply chains, boosting military expenditure and battling rising healthcare costs. This may lead to stickier inflation and higher rates than markets expect.” “It seems to me that every long-term trend I see increases inflation relative to the last 20 years. Huge fiscal spending, the trillions needed each year for the green economy, the remilitarization of the world and the restructuring of global trade — all are inflationary. I’m not sure models could pick this up.” “If long-end rates go up over 6% and this increase is accompanied by a recession, there will be plenty of stress — not just in the banking system but with leveraged companies and others. “Remember, a simple 2 percentage point increase in rates essentially reduced the value of most financial assets by 20%, and certain real estate assets, specifically office real estate, may be worth even less due to the effects of recession and higher vacancies. Also remember that credit spreads tend to widen, sometimes dramatically, in a recession.”

My-Dumb-Questions

The vol-related blowups were so tasty. The likes of Malachite and Plinth losing pretty much all of their capital, a single PM single-handedly losing 14% for Graham, MLP almost blowing up on bond basis (which is essentially an options trade) and being bailed out by the Fed/UST, Ronin exploding on the VIX expiration trade etc. We want more of that, please :)

savannah_samson

3% cash back. 5% APY for gold members. 20% annual interest on UST with Luna. If it's too good to be true, it usually is.

Beautiful_Speech7689

If they want to attack housing specifically, they'd consider buying MBS and CMBS to bring down while allowing Treasurys to continue rolling off of the balance sheet. The spread between UST and MBS tightens, but who cares if it eases one of your primary inflation factors. It takes some guts to buy again while short-term rates are still elevated, but provides control over at least one of the key factors. It might make some people's heads explode, but there's a first time for everything and we're in uncharted territory.

toomuchtodotoday

What duration we talking here for UST?

Exotic-Onion9498

There’s the key. The app they bought is to bypass GETTING the new drugs like ozempic and wegovny via a doctor. Via a type of zoom you prove your BMI is a certain level and you sign up to the WW programs and done, you have them in the mail the next day (assuming you have insurance or can pay for it ). WW finally agreed they had it wrong, the weight loss drugs are the way to go and they hired a new 40year old CEO tech savvy woman and she is changing everything. So all the old meetings and meals etc are gonzo. You get “coached” using the drugs and managing them is the go to formula. Getting the drugs was the biggest hurdle for millions of mid American women and now it’s a simple process. They have a huge infrastructure in place and a name people trust. You will start seeing the commercials soon enough as the easiest way to get the drugs. This stock was at $100 few years back on name brand alone. I’ve patiently waited for that $2 level and now going for broke (with intc also). I’m actually in the business as a prop UST trader so my Bloomberg will keep me abreast of any news prior to the tape

__dying__

Watch the 10 UST pull back through the start of the week, you're about to get fucked.

__dying__

The 10y UST was up all last week. It looks primed for a pullback next week. Falling rates are bullish for tech. Your puts r fuk guy see you at Wendy's.

OreoAndGrey

The 30Y UST auction was amazing. Bears are fucked

TXPEDITION

\*\*Title: Exploring Alternative Triggers for MicroStrategy's Exceeding 70x NAV: A Contingency Analysis\*\* ​ \*\*Introduction:\*\* While the prevailing narrative surrounding MicroStrategy's valuation surge often revolves around Bitcoin's price dynamics and institutional demand, this analysis delves into the potential impact of alternative triggers, such as a collapse in UST (United States Treasury) bonds or commercial property markets, on MicroStrategy's valuation. By considering these alternative scenarios, we aim to broaden the scope of understanding regarding MicroStrategy's valuation dynamics and identify potential pathways towards exceeding 70x NAV under adverse market conditions. ​ \*\*1. Collapse in UST Bonds:\*\* A collapse in UST bonds, driven by factors such as escalating inflation, fiscal imbalances, or loss of investor confidence in the U.S. government's ability to service its debt, could trigger a flight to alternative stores of value, including Bitcoin. In such a scenario, Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge against fiat currency debasement intensifies, leading to a surge in demand for MicroStrategy shares as a proxy for exposure to Bitcoin. The resultant increase in MicroStrategy's market capitalization relative to its NAV could push valuation multiples beyond 70x. ​ \*\*2. Commercial Property Market Downturn:\*\* A downturn in the commercial property market, precipitated by factors like economic recession, overleveraging, or changes in consumer behavior (e.g., increased remote work leading to reduced demand for office space), could have cascading effects on financial markets. As investors seek refuge in alternative assets amid uncertainties surrounding traditional real estate investments, interest in Bitcoin and companies with significant Bitcoin holdings like MicroStrategy may intensify. The resulting influx of capital into MicroStrategy shares could inflate valuation multiples, particularly if accompanied by a broader reevaluation of risk assets. ​ \*\*3. Flight to Tangible Assets Amid Economic Uncertainty:\*\* In times of economic uncertainty or market turbulence, investors often seek refuge in tangible assets perceived as stores of value. Bitcoin, with its finite supply and decentralized nature, presents an attractive option for investors wary of traditional financial instruments. A broader flight to Bitcoin and Bitcoin-related equities, including MicroStrategy, could drive up valuation multiples even in the absence of significant movements in Bitcoin's price, as investors prioritize asset preservation and portfolio diversification. ​ \*\*4. Market Perception and Risk Appetite:\*\* Perceptions of risk and investor sentiment play a crucial role in shaping MicroStrategy's valuation dynamics. A shift in market sentiment towards risk-on or risk-off behavior, triggered by external events or macroeconomic indicators, could influence investor appetite for high-growth, speculative assets like Bitcoin and, by extension, MicroStrategy shares. A heightened risk appetite, fueled by factors such as accommodative monetary policy or optimistic economic outlook, may lead to greater willingness to assign higher valuation multiples to growth-oriented companies like MicroStrategy. ​ \*\*Conclusion:\*\* While the prevailing narrative often focuses on Bitcoin-related catalysts for MicroStrategy's valuation surge, alternative triggers such as a collapse in UST bonds or commercial property market downturns present plausible pathways towards exceeding 70x NAV. By considering these contingency scenarios, investors can gain a more nuanced understanding of MicroStrategy's valuation dynamics and better position themselves to navigate uncertain market environments. However, it's essential to recognize that such scenarios are speculative and contingent upon a complex interplay of economic, financial, and behavioral factors.

SpareInsurance

Thanks for this man. I am sorry to hear about your loss to UST. Do Kwon really messed with a lot of peoples money with his algorithmic "stable"coin.

Money-Tip-7543

I’m 30 now, at 28 I lost $250k in about 5 days after the last bull run as I sold everything for UST, about a month later it depegged down to 0. I thought my life was over and it was a very tough month or two after but time goes on and money comes back. As you get older you realize how important family and friends are( cliche I know, but true). Best advice would be gratitude and to take it day by day, focus on the small wins and things will get better.

DJ_EBITDA

So the futures are more leveraged bets on UST for some extra return?

McKnuckle_Brewery

Similar, but not exactly the same. USFR has a slightly higher yield. Risk is pretty much identical and insignificant. SGOV holds Treasury bonds with remaining maturity of 0-3 months (i.e. not Treasury *bills;* ignore my comment from 2 months ago that says T-bills). USFR holds floating rate Treasury notes. These are a bit weird so I suggest using the Google to learn more, but regardless, they are UST products.

cutiesarustimes2

UST about to get railed.

cutiesarustimes2

Really wondering if Japan burns UST to defend the yen

cutiesarustimes2

$41B UST 7-Year Note Auction tomorrow. 😬

YinBon

Stocks and UST are different level of risk. You'll need to extend your duration due to lower interest rate. Trading strategy for high div stock/ETF would not be straight forward.

YinBon

I look at yield spread for fixed income trading ideas. Along the curve; compared with deposit; and Compared with IG bonds. I see: bank deposit yield has dropped faster than UST yield; yield curve is gaining momentum to get normalised, with the rate of short-dated moves faster than that of long-dated; IG spread is getting more attractive. I'd move out from deposit, trade short-dated, and position some money in medium term IG. Not interested in long-dated one.

r2pleasent

It's offered to institutional traders and requires large volumes. I know someone personally who has access to redemptions. They made a bunch of money when Tether depgged briefly during the Luna / UST collapse.

banditcleaner2

yeah, great, so was UST. How did that go again? Oh, right... [TerraClassicUSD Price: USTC Live Price Chart & News | CoinGecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/terraclassicusd)

robotlasagna

I think question to ask is : What happens if you wake up tomorrow and check Binance's addresses and the bitcoin have been transferred out? What do you think will happen if everyone realizes this and goes to get their money out of Binance exchange? Blackrock has $9T AUM \*and\* you have legal recourse if something goes sideways in terms of custodianship. And finally ask yourself this: If you buy UST, considered the literal safest investment in the world, how do you know USA has the actual money to pay you back on those treasuries?

Dettol-tasting-menu

Fair enough. No one has info on Tether. Like you said they are run by shady people. It could be a scam, it could also be a scam that turn more legit because they struck lucky by landing on this cash cow business. They are now one of the largest UST holders and they are getting paid interest every quarter. It’s be smart (scammers are smart) for them to take this opportunity and turn it into something a bit more legit. Have I ever bought one dollar worth of tether? No. All I’m saying is, Tether and Bitcoin are two very separate things. Bitcoin’s exponential rise happened well before Tether even existed. Those who don’t get Bitcoin would naturally attribute its rise to tether pump. We don’t have to info to disprove it, but for those who understand why bitcoin goes on this ridiculous explosion would say no Bitcoin didn’t need tether pumping scam to exhibit this growth. It’s just a network effect gaining ground much like the World Wide Web in the 90s.

Dettol-tasting-menu

5 years ago Tether was a lot more dodgy. But they were clever enough to have clean up their act a bit (at least seemingly so). They are now one of the biggest holders of UST. And the incentive to cheat is now lower because they are literally making billions of risk free coupons every year from the US Treasuries and Notes. Let’s see how it goes for Tether but Bitcoin has nothing to do with Tether.

LionRoars87

QE makes the Fed another whale in the bond market. Considering that Japan and China have been net seller of UST this year to protect their currencies, and yet, bond yields are still falling. That should tell you something. And the $33T in US debt (which the bond market knows about). The yield curve is still inverted. It tried to bear steepen in September-October when the 10Y hit 5% (amidst some awful bond auctions). And yet the higher for longer narrative was rejected and to which Powell recently confirmed.

jadequarter

u mean UST on anchor protocol on terra blockchain ran by do kwan who is now in jail?

Hardcore_prepper1

I agree with you. I would normally not be this overweight in gold or any precious metal, but because of the lack of fiscal discipline, and that the Fed is trapped in the money printing because the world is dumping UST bonds, plus the wars going on and future wars, gold is the only safe haven for preserving what wealth you have…

Marginally_Witty

Petrodollars. The less they need the less UST they need to buy. Petrodollars are a “small” - but important - part of keeping the USD the world’s reserve currency, and keeping its value where it is.

majoco_

Buy UST while it's cheap!

l-espion

UST gang club are you ?

Amber_Sam

Look into UST if you think stable coins are stable.

polloponzi

I agree, remind me of Luna UST stablecoin

iamlookingtomakemone

> These two are linked though I described the link. >domestic rates are pretty much all built on top of the UST bond rates Prime rates are influenced by the federal funds rate. >Also you're assuming that the only way to pay the additional interest is through printing, but it doesn't have to be. All else being the same, it is through printing. >The US could increase taxes or reduce spending elsewhere, both of which would be deflationary. This is currently la la land territory.

makken

These two are linked though--since domestic rates are pretty much all built on top of the UST bond rates, an increase in bond rates would increase the cost of borrowing for the domestic economy. Also you're assuming that the only way to pay the additional interest is through printing, but it doesn't have to be. The US could increase taxes or reduce spending elsewhere, both of which would be deflationary.

fco1017

Fitch downgrade 08/01 with SPX @ 4576 & 10yr UST was 4.027%. Moody's downgrade happened 11/10. Government shutdown coming this Friday (11/17) along with OPEX. We're @ technical resistance trendline now. My point - "PUT YOUR MOUTHPIECE IN". This ride is about to get bumpy.

freecmorgan

The fed has QT sold more bonds itself in the past 12 months than Japan owns. The Treasury is issuing as many bonds as Japan owns in a single quarter. Japan is not capable of tanking the UST market.

HurrDurrImaPilot

pardon the follow-up but are there other paths, aside from a policy mistake, to persistent deflation that could result in poor performance? let's say we entered a period of poor growth/recession -- let's say worse than Covid where UST rates go negative. Dumb lay investor me says: equities will benefit from a reduction in discount rate, but suffer from growth rate expectations. bonds will perform well with declining rates. tips will perform poorly relative to higher priced LT bonds but potentially better than equities given that they have a floor.

taintmoun

While I agree many to valid points, I disagree: >I don't see any reason to believe that foreign buyers are walking away, but even if they do, that will push long term rates up which is exactly what the fed is attempting to do and will hopefully un-invert the yield curve. An inverted yield curve is painful for a lot of sectors of the economy, and it would be nice to un-invert it. But at the end of the day, the fed can't force long term rates to go up, they can only push on the front part of the string. The issue is geopolitical reason that due to US's non-engagement in the world, the chance that local powers are fighting to each other (Russia vs Ukraine, IDF vs Hamas) is growing, which is actually increasing the financial stability. Since 1945, the big picture is that US consumers spend the money, FED printing unlimited USD (to be exact, since 1971), growing economy (Starting with Germany/Japan/Italy in 1960-1970, Korea/Taiwan in 1980s, followed by China and ASEAN/BRCIS in 2000s) export products and goods to US consumers, US government to issue more UST/the growing economy purchased UST/rinse and repeat, and everyone is happy. Now US is using financial sanctions against its adversaries such as Russia/Iran to name the top and China, who used to be the biggest buyers since 2000s (until 2022), is starting to wonder what-if scenarios that what happens to Chinese assets when US treasury freezes US treasury bought by Chinese government. Given that in DC politics, although Senator B. Sanders and T. Cruz may not agree whether or not 2020 election is legitimate or not, although Senator E. Warrens and T. Tuberville may not agree to appoint chief of staffs in US military, it takes less than 0.3 ms (time to be executed on most of trading platform) to initiate anti-Chinese legislations with 100% vote yes, China is seriously questioning whether they will receive due payment from US government or not. As much as JPMorgan or GSachs dont wanna put their big money in China's financial market, for which, policy makers can screw their money at no given warning, China doesnt wanna take a risk at the whim of bipolar US politics in DC Capital Hill. Japan is a little bit different story (as they are still doing unlimited QE after 3 lost decades since 1990s, but as inflation is going up, YEN-Dollar carry may come back, meaning that they would rather wanna bring their invested US assets to Japan, if and when BOJ ends unlimited QE (i.e: US treasury, which, at least gives 2%, whereas they would have to pay the fees to buy Japanese treasury resulting from unlimited QE), and therefore, they won't get to buy US treasury (although they will still have vested interests, as US-Japan is big alliance). China/Japan out, now the only big stakeholders are EU nations (i.e: UK/Germany) and while they will still look UST as interesting and potentially looking to buy, the fact is that there are less competitions, and therefore, bond buyers are asking for higher premium, called term premium, for taking the risk. In my honest opinions, the inflation came from the dead body, when there was political movement called MAGA, and US is paying its price. Basically what MAGA wants to do is to bring jobs back to US, which will increase the costs of goods/products, because labor cost in US is just more expensive than China or other 3rd world. Whether that is what should happen or not is not on me, but I am pointing out that because of jobs relocations (i.e: reshoring or friend shoring: bring jobs back to Canada/Mexico so transportation cost is cheaper), it will eventually create wage going up and inflation wont come down. While 99% of Americans are unhappy about China taking their jobs away and look at China as an enemy state, what they should appreciate is that China has contributed great mount of deflations enough that FED could curb the inflations in reliably lower rates. Without China, 2000-2020 stock markets have never been available Now the tide has been turned since 2016. I dont know which direction it will go but if the macro has been changed, then investment style should be changed as well.

Tomato13

So JGB is 10 year bonds, for the longest time Bank of Japan set it at 50 bps. They were the owners of 10 year bonds. Now with inflation kicking in and the Yen catering. The BoJ and Ministry of Finance is trying to balance keeping rates somewhat low and not have the Yen behahave like the Turkish Lira. The BoJ has pretty much said they will remove the cap on 10 year. This is important bc Imo the real reason why the long bonds rates where increasing was since Aug or Sept the BoJ allowed their JGB yields to raise, ergo raising the UST yields, ergo making cost of capital more, ergo equities appear less attractive, ergo equities shitting.

cutiesarustimes2

And they'll continue to burn UST to defend the yen.

DustinLyle

It’s as simple as this… Mortgage interest at 7.5%+ to the consumer, means near-zero previously financed home inventory to be listed. The same high rates stopping inventory, also means near-zero refinance business for mortgage lenders, which would normally use refi business to subsidize the lack of purchase finance business. Revolving consumer credit is at astronomical levels, and at consumer credit interest rates not seen in 40 years, with the underwriting banks themselves owing on shorter term notes that need or will need to be replaced with new financing (CDO’s) that are going to be much more balance sheet intensive. (downstream result of Fed rate). Total consumer revolving (high interest) debt: $1.3T Total household debt: (Q2) $17T Total consumer demand deposits: (Oct) $4.9T Institutions can’t buy treasury inventory as it comes, at the volume or rates the Fed expected, because institutions don’t have the forecasted liquidity. Them not being able to, results in the market rate yield going up more… They’re mostly all currently “robbing Peter to pay Paul” - in a last-ditch, best effort to not be the first institution to emulate Lehman Brothers. Then, we are all contending with this nuance… The historical data is corrupted. Over the last 2 years, the way in which nearly every significant economic measure and metric is calculated, has been changed. So when you see a ratio or chart from (BOL, BLS, FRED, DoE, HUD, UST, FRB etc) looking back any amount of significant sampling duration, the current measure isn’t Apples to Apples with the historic measure. And coincidentally enough, every single change in the way the data and reports are now compiled, leads to a more “rosy” current situation, than if traditional reporting criteria was held steady. However, the most important thing, is in this graph. https://preview.redd.it/wwpgwd2z2fxb1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c30c205820b6d317c75dbc5d5f90fa85706868bd Yeah, there is no “slow and steady recovery”. There’s a fuse lit, and it’s burning. When the first powder keg goes, the whole thing goes. Hyper-inflation is in-bound. It’s likely here right now, but being masked by the recent market selloff, likewise, the selloff has been buoyed by the inflation. Sooner or later, a “too big to fail” institution’s balance sheet is going to require the maturity rolling of long-term notes that had á maintenance of 1% to long-term notes at 6%+. Unfortunately for all of us here… It looks like the first institution that’s gonna happen to, is the US Treasury. In that moment, the $33T deficit will cost $2T/year in interest alone. If the Fed then lowers the long-term rate, the yield of the 6% treasuries (at whatever duration, 5-years?) will go WAY up - and so will everything that’s downstream… Consumer revolving rates, margin rates, auto loan rates etc. more wage pressure, more inflation. Wage/Cost spiral.

Jeff__Skilling

wow, both of /r/stocks two favorite boogie men in the top post: too much government debt / risk that the US defaults on UST (this will never happen, FYI) and the long anticipated commercial real estate collapse (still surprised we're circlejerking this dead horse to death, considering this imminent financial meltdown has been predicted since March 2020....)

samuelj264

You listed the holdings in a different comment. I haven’t looked at all the companies in depth but things like Chewy are still pretty speculative and highly sensitive to interest rates which climbed from 4% to 5% (10-yr UST yield). When companies like Chewy go from borrowing money/getting investments a bunch of VC & PE money at rock bottom interest rates, to having to pay a lot higher rates to finance growth the value of the company can fall, and stock price falls. I think your thesis is good, more people are having pets rather than children and these companies should benefit. But, the macro environment is poor for many companies. Once we get through this high rate and higher inflationary period, things can shake out and ETFs like this and their underlying holdings should do well.

Southern_Rule6955

Meta back to 2021 levels 2y return equals 0 30x PE Meanwhile, 10y UST yields 4.9% Risk reward is simply not there

Walternotwalter

And get paid in what? Which you put where? Ackman just realized how asinine this is. And he is a choad anyway. The curve will steepen and then they will cut the short end. That's all there is to it. BTFP is focused YCC basically. Buy Gold or Bitcoin instead of shorting UST's because there is no reality where BRICS+ is going to coordinate anything. You want to play doom games sell puts on GDX at a minimum instead of trying to short debt issued in excess of the global GDP.

diabeetis

UST market trades like half a trillion a day. im gonna tweet some bullshit and move it 30 bp

diabeetis

UST market trades like half a trillion a day. im gonna tweet some bullshit and move it 30 bp

Aggressive-Donkey-10

longer term, consider buying USFR 5.4% yield and as an etf has instant liquidity, but will take 2 business days to settle funds at your brokerage, or use a brokerage to buy new 13 week UST at 5.5% last week, or on their secondary market 5.44% (most brokerages have a 6-7 basis pt spread on used treasuries)

WizardT88

Without dividends to compete with UST no point is risking your principle.

Fmbounce

Japan’s ratio is at 220%. It’s not that important as long as there are buyers of UST.

yogi2350

High-yield savings ETFs typically invest in short-term bonds, which are more sensitive to interest rate changes than longer-term bonds. Additionally, high-yield savings ETFs may have higher expense ratios than other types of ETFs. Here are a few high-yield savings ETFs that you may want to consider SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL): BIL tracks an index of U.S. Treasury bills with maturities of 1-3 months. The ETF has a current yield of 4.8%. iShares Short-Term Treasury Bond ETF (SHV): SHV tracks an index of U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 1-3 years. The ETF has a current yield of 4.7%. Invesco UltraShort Duration Treasury ETF (UST): UST tracks an index of U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of less than 1 year. The ETF has a current yield of 4.6%.

DyehuthyTV

Is something I have already explained in previous Comments in other Posts, **read my Reddit Profile, Comments & Posts** [Commentary: UST Holders-Investors are Selling](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/174c721/equity_holders_beware_what_happened_to_asset/k48ryn5/?context=3) [Commentary: US10Y & DEBT-GDP Ratio](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/176aw9f/krugman_the_war_on_inflation_is_over/k4kzrux/?context=3) [Commentary: Big Short Position in Derivatives by Hedge Funds](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1758mht/yields_are_falling/k4ebz82/?context=3) Its a recurring theme in this sub :D

AlabasterJefferson

Yeah, guys, China selling more UST than ever before, plus The Fed saying, "we need to be higher longer" and "We are not considering yields for rate hike concerns," are all bullish signals. Major green tomorrow. Rate cuts soon.

SolomonKings7

We might see 10Y 5% yields this night, especially if japs or chinese dump UST

SolomonKings7

Looks like Japs are dumping UST too

SpectatorRacing

Rates going up is not a risk. It’s an opportunity cost. You can lose present value on a bond, but never value at maturity. If Apple stock goes down, generally one could wait it out and it will go back up. But it could also go bankrupt. A UST bond will maintain its value if you hold to maturity. As for the UST going bankrupt, that’s not a serious argument, of course it *could* happen. But it’s not going to. And if it did, equities will be irrelevant, anyway.

Apprehensive-Type306

Would be interesting to see an overlay of JGB. Keep me he same x-axis labels for UST, just beneath put the years for JGB and chart the graph in a different color

4score-7

Hypothetically speaking, if you were going to hypothetically move all of your hypothetic retirement savings to the safest, steadiest asset, what would one hypothetically move to? This person's hypothetical cash reserves are all in short term UST's. Like half his theoretical net worth. Just asking hypothetically.

xcsler_returns

Treasury issues a $100 bond at 10% interest. Fed buys $100 T-bill and credits UST's TGA account. UST then sells $10 worth of its gold to the Fed. At year's end UST pays Fed $110. The $10 Fed profit is remitted back to the UST and the Fed is left with $10 worth of gold as a new asset. Essentially, the UST would have to finally choose to monetize gold.

DyehuthyTV

FED YCC? 🤔 Like BOJ (*Japan*) Cuz all UST Holders are Selling :D [Image Source](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/recent-developments-in-hedge-funds-treasury-futures-and-repo-positions-20230830.html) https://preview.redd.it/u4z6yfxnsjtb1.jpeg?width=749&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=57703d6d17275f77870631d678c5dd9a9c316e06

SolomonKings7

We'll probably see a drop in bond yields ( because countries will buy UST due to war in ME), which will pump Chadsdaq.

degeneratesupremacy2

You mean all Israel needs to do, is sacrifice a few thousand citizens to horrific deaths, and then they get the international support to permanently eliminate Palestine as a country? Sounds like a bargain. Pretty suss that Mossad of all folks didn't realize 10s of thousands of their neighbors were organizing and arming up and building rockets and small flying aircrafts to invade them. Anyway, if this spills over into other countries it will do some damage to supply chains, but mostly those relating to oil and gas. " A third of the world's [liquefied natural gas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquefied_natural_gas) and almost 25% of total global [oil consumption](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_exports) passes through the strait, making it a highly important strategic location for international trade ". So, we already fucked things up in terms of natural gas by blowing up the nordstream 2 pipeline and sanctioning Russia, if this goes bad and Iran gets involved, straight of Hormuz gets closed, Oil/Gas is even more squeezed and pretty much the price of oil will skyrocket unless your name is China and all your shit is from Russia. Which means energy costs climb, which means production costs climb as factories take a lot of energy, which means inflation continues to skyrocket, which means the FED keeps hiking, which means Bonds go up, which means Stocks take a massive haircut. Also possibly ww3 because Israel has nuclear weapons and its almost a certainty at this point that Iran does as well. Honestly? Probably bullish because we live in a fucking clown world. I have no positions except UST and cash so won't make or lose money based on what the stock market does on monday.

hanzelmanchen

Bro a better way will be to hedge your bets by trying to protect your portfolio against demand shock (via nominal long duration UST), inflation (via TIPS, low duration is better), and rate shock (via nominal short duration UST) - start with 1/3 for each bucket and adjust as needed

Itaney

It’s not foolish, given that beginning P/E has historically only explained 10% of the equity return variation over the subsequent year, and other factors have therefore explained 90% of the variation of subsequent equity returns. In past periods where the markets entered the 9th and even 10th decile of valuations, the market on average still saw substantial returns over the following year. This is all to say that it is not foolish — the only thing foolish is to believe those are the only 2 scenarios that can create a new rally. Inflation, politics, new president, megacap rally, 10Y UST reversion, etc. all can carry the market by themselves.

artemiusgreat

TLDR: TLT if you're an investor or TMF if gambler. * Asia, led by China and Japan, are selling US treasuries, because they need USD cash. * Yellen is selling UST because the government throws money everywhere and can't stop spending, so they need to get this money somewhere. * Powell is raising rates decreasing the price of UST because this is how bonds work, you pay "half" the price of the bond, the other "half" you will receive as a "yield" on maturity date, e.g. in 2 or 5 or 10 or 20 years. It is called "fixed income" because the income is fixed, i.e. "price + yield = income", and if yield is growing, the price part has to come down to keep "income" fixed. Basically, everybody who was supposed to buy UST is selling them now. Powell can stop it but only if something breaks and by something I don't mean banks because the FED already created a fund with indefinite money for banks only, so big banks and monopolies will not break, it has to be something else, e.g. other countries somewhere in Europe or some that have resources, like cheap oil. When it happens, the US government will buy resources for cheap, big banks will buy small regional businesses to grow monopolies, the FED cuts rates and the market starts growing again. The 1st to go are bonds, TLT, and its derivatives, because after cutting yields the bond price will skyrocket (fixed income), then stocks will follow with some delay. You can compare 1 year charts for TLT and SPY in 2020 to see how they follow rates.

SolomonKings7

Big boys bought tons of UST, which causing mega pump in big tech

SolomonKings7

So, any news who bought tons of UST ? Such an extreme swing in rates is quite unusual

SolomonKings7

Yen almost back to 150, Japanese gonna nuke UST

cutiesarustimes2

Look sweetie Japan just woke up. You know what that means right No? Time to dump some UST

DyehuthyTV

OMG your Regard Level its Impressive ​ > I’ll give you a hint! Look up public debt and intra-government debt. After adding servicing debt China is 5th China the 5th US Debt Holder? Where do you get this Bad Information? From GurusLand? xD **I am Talking those Countrys that Held UST** (*US Debt, Treasuries!*) **Japan is the 1st US Foreign Debt Holder** **China is the 2nd US Foreign Debt Holder** **In all the OFFICIAL SITES it can be seen that China is the 2nd Country with the most UST Held (***US Treasuries, US Debt***)** *Official Site: US Treasury Department International Capital (TIC)* https://preview.redd.it/wn69h67aj7sb1.jpeg?width=695&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6e4c3e5e4367a38ab2f0727afe4e3e69a4958b2b

sickwobsm8

The UST bond selloff seems to be pretty controlled, China is clearly trying to squeeze out every penny they can without causing a crash. Probably gonna be a slow bleed of the markets for a while...

DyehuthyTV

**Many Investors are Blind with the Gov Debt (*****Bubble*****)** Since 2008 (*GFC*) the Financial and Real Estate Sectors have been Reducing their **Debt-to-GDP Ratio**, and the Government has been getting more and more Debt with the Easing Monetary Policy in the last 2 decades People wonder, why Foreign Investors like Japan or China (*Largest US Debt Holders*) are Selling off their UST Reserves, well, and **Inflated Dollar** ([Dollar Milkshake Theory](https://jameslavish.substack.com/p/-the-dollar-index-dxy-and-dollar)) is one of the Big Reasons. [Image Source: The next Debt Crisis](https://epbresearch.com/the-next-debt-crisis/) https://preview.redd.it/eshrox7cy5sb1.jpeg?width=1499&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=882ef0f8c5d1448d060c198dbc1936e1adadbbe7

Aggravating_Gur3936

Someone get the CRE debt and equity markets to wake up with cap rates/discount rates cause asset valuations and pricing = completely dislocated from UST yields

MailDeliveringBear

It’s not easy arbitrage because you have to convert your yen to dollars and then back to yen. In essence the BoJ is going to have to sell UST to buy their own currency back. Paradoxically this increases the demand of dollars because you can’t just swap UST directly for the bonds. Higher demand means higher interest rates which is bad for smaller banks. I think is the logic.

davanger1980

All in on bonds here. UST mostly but with some higher risk corporate.

Mrknowitall666

Lol. Then the entire question is kind of funny. Go look up what ibbotson or Segal has to say about real risk premia on money market or CD yields. The question says cd's are risk free at 6%...meanibg inflation is about 6.5% (surprise! Today!)... Because cash yields are usually about 50 bps negative, in real terms. Intermediate UST is positive from there and stocks positive from there again. Risk and reward are related, over the long term.

Bottom_Wobbles

If someone tells you to be out of stocks and bonds, they’re aren’t any good at finance. Go long UST. Cutting rates makes your 5% 20 year bond worth more.

Tricky-Committee-777

InMode share price started to rollover mid-July at the same time that UST yields began to climb, notably the 10Y. They're a long duration equity meaning the bulk of value is expected to be generated further in the future. For this reason, it makes their valuation more sensitive to changes in UST yields. I'm personally an InMode shareholder and the recent drop hasn't changed my long-term conviction. I purchased shares at $38 where I believed a support would form and am continuing to add to the position at these levels.

ListerineInMyPeehole

Japan is for sure dumping UST China will be dumping too

cutiesarustimes2

What if Japan is dumping UST to get ready for a forex move?

kiwimancy

Sorry, correct me if I misunderstood. You want to long UST credit by investing in a fund of short term cash equivalents (t-bills) via GBP. You can do that, but there is no credit spread on US treasurys. That position would be primarily a bet on GBP/USD, not UST credit spread.

kiwimancy

The easiest way to be long UST credit is to just buy US Treasurys. There is no market for UST CDS as far as I'm aware. If you tried to find someone to buy CDS you write, they would not be willing to pay you any spread and probably would demand a negative spread for the counterparty risk you present. Especially for such a tiny (relative to standard CDS size) amount of capital.

3fallingcrows

Half of 2023 was spent in a rising trend, and since early July the market has been in a sideways trend. It's not that complicated. If growth had continued in August, the Vix could well have fallen as low as 10%. The FED's decision may well be market-defining, but the trend will be long-term. So far in the cycle of rate hikes, Bonds are more of a loss for holders. This is a temporary phenomenon. At least stabilization of rates in UST5 and UST10 will make the flow of funds from equities to Bonds more decisive

KurtNasty1

First off congrats and having amassed $150k, good job. SGOV or other UST funds are a decent option, but I'd be a bit more cautious on the risk side of things. US gov default is unthinkable to some (many) people but we did come awfully close at the last "fiscal cliff" (wasn't the first time, won't be the last, but it was the closest/worst...so far). Will any investment be safe under such a default? Likely not, but nothing is now either and the first things to be hit hard will be USTs. Not saying there's much of anything to do about that, just that you should not really consider them completely impossibly safe investments (don't believe me, just ask S&P and Moody's...). That being said, there's really nothing wrong with keeping your cash in an HYSA. If you went to T bills you're looking at maybe an extra $100 ish a month, that would be nice and all but it's nothing that's gonna move the needle. Keep it in HYSA, move some or all to T bills, either way don't worry about it too much, keep doing whatever you were doing (and more!) to get to that $150k in the first place, that'll be a lot more financially rewarding than splitting hairs on interest rates and tax treatments.

Tackysock46

UST’s are literally the most liquid asset on the planet what are you saying lmao

cutiesarustimes2

Could be a 1-2 punch next week. CPI comes in high, yields rise putting more pressure on the yen, so Japan dumps more UST to defend their currency and yields go higher.

iamjames1234

They are de-risking from the US. Selling UST and use that money to lend out to other countries in Africa. They accept the loss on the UST because they can recoup it from other countries and at the same time gaining goodwill.

Walternotwalter

According to CPI, UST's have a real yield over 2% right now. Inflation taxes everything equally.

joyful-

what are they going to replace UST with to de-risk?

MYGFH

UST Bonds only thing providing liquidity in Gyna. It's getting dry as they're selling out.

Ginger-Octopus

You're the version of me that followed through. I was too lazy with bank transfers to put more into UST. Still got me for 6k tho

Jumpy_Solid6706

I'm 49, and outside my 401k only started investing this year. Got into crypto late in 2021, made nice profit, then lost it all when Luna / UST crash happened. Though Greyscale winning in court this week may help BTC. Beyond that, it's never too late to learn. That goes for everything. Follow your own path.

LAQ2021

10% AAPL 10% MSFT 10% TSLA 10% PMT 10% 3mo CD or UST 50% VOO

cutiesarustimes2

So Japan's cpi comes out Friday morning Makes me wonder if it's high and the BOJ starts to sell more UST to defend their currency

cutiesarustimes2

$1B in 30 year UST

3fallingcrows

There is no doubt that UST20s can respond to more than just a general decline in rates. It is quite realistic that such a position will work as a hedge of long positions in stocks in case of an unexpected collapse. On the other hand, you will get paid for such a hedge as well

cutiesarustimes2

Really thinking Japan is selling UST until market open each day. Tlt dives into open and bounces until afternoon

greiskul

UST. Crypto nuts are too regarded to understand that algorithmic stable coins have a fatal flaw, that during a bull run the market incentives is to maintain the peg, but during a bear market there is a loop back that allows people to make money destroying the peg. So the moment sentiment turned against it, it was doomed to crash. This was widely known and discussed before it happened, in the places that are not crypto echo chambers.