WAL

ObiWanCanownme

$WAL. High exposure to CRE in the riskiest part of the U.S.

Evening_Cut4422

If that's what u believe is really happening, all I can say u are seriously about to get fcked.  I am not gonna teach u economics but do look up how regional banks were doing last night. Ticker: MS, WAL, ZION, FITB,C, CMA, BAC and so on. Tell me how all the banks droping 2%-6%isnt indicative of stressful conditions.

Evening_Cut4422

U are better off just shorting small and big regional banks. Zion, WAL, FITB, CMA, C, MS, BAC all of these were down 2%-6% last night u just need 1 good weekly out and u are out.

spaceman_Spooky

Weren’t you the dude asking for advice on how to sell your puts on $WAL last month?

Coolizhious

i don’t identify with any parts of this image except the Walmart. I stand by $WAL

tomato119

I bought sofi and enph. If I had more money Id buy boeing. sbux looks good. Iexpect WAL to return to 70. ADBE might be good for a swing trade.

JuanPabloElTres

What did you scrape to find the specific OZK loans? I Want to do a similar assessment for WAL.

Worried_Quarter469

Yeah, I picked out HIMS NVDA and WAL last year, but didn’t hold any of them. All 3 doubled…my account is up…. But not doubled. So stocks this time.

Baydreams

It depends on the market and the week. Casinos have been in a steady range for the past few months so I’ve been doing well with those. Right now im in WAL, SNOW, CZR, BA. I aim for .75 to 1% per week. I also sell covered calls on some of my long positions.

JoshuaByer

Could dead cat bounce like WAL

Quixotus

Will WAL be the next one? Or ZION?

fickdichdock

Jump into bank puts guys. WAL ZION etc. NYCB is going to die.

fickdichdock

If you're talking about NYCB puts specifically then FDIC taking over is max gain = the best outcome. The stock will open trading OTC after a few weeks of being halted. Then you just buy the shares for close to nothing and exercise your options. After all you can still trade the failed banks from last year for a few pennies and you can see what happened with stock in the chart. The tricky part would be getting caught with your expiration date while it's still halted. Then you'd need enough margin to exercise the puts into a short. Margin requirements could be based on the last traded price and could make the whole thing very pricey. Best to not get into such a situation and buy puts at least 2 months out. But since IV is shit on NYCB specifically I'd just go short any other regional bank. One from my list in the post or one of the regional banks that is very sensitive to a new bank panic like WAL, ZION etc.

JuanPabloElTres

WAL, looking shaky

uncivil_engineer42

Going to go out on a limb and guess one of the regional banks that have been unduly beaten down based on rumor and not fact. One of the larger Peer Group 2 or smaller Peer Group 1 banks with enough capital to absorb a real downturn that isn't heavily invested in CRE. CMA would make some sense but their AOCI is getting wrecked by their Treasury holdings and WAL's latest 10Q notes their FDIC-insured deposit rate is still low... though Warren giving an injection of funding would definitely help shore that up.

grimkhor

Full yolo on WAL 

Gemini_Of_Wallstreet

hahaha, I can’t believe how regarded i am, i bought WAL calls instead of WMT

bulldawg1414

The next GW Pharma! AVICANNA (AVCNF) is flying under the radar. They already control the largest online Medical Marijuana platform in Canada (MyMedi) allowing insurance reimbursement for patients & have in place important multinational.pharmaceutical partnerships in the USA, EUROPE, UK, CANADA, and SOUTH AMERICA. They are providing the API for RE+PLAY/VIOLA BRANDS (the official CBD of the NBA). Only strictly pharmaceutical cannabis company really working with Johnson & Johnson except Medipharm Labs who do contract manufacturing for AVICANNA & have ties to Janssen/J&J and Tilray. This will soar when J&J officially takes a stake. It is my opinion that AVICANNA will introduce MyMedi USA & partner with major insurance companies like Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield, United Healthcare, etc along with CVS, WALGREENS, & WAL*MART like they did with SHOPPER'S DRUG MART (the biggest pharmacy chain in Canada. Just my opinion. Bullish! 😎💎🌲🔥💨

bulldawg1414

The next GW Pharma! AVICANNA (AVCNF) is flying under the radar. They already control the largest online Medical Marijuana platform in Canada (MyMedi) allowing insurance reimbursement for patients & have in place important multinational.pharmaceutical partnerships in the USA, EUROPE, UK, CANADA, and SOUTH AMERICA. They are providing the API for RE+PLAY/VIOLA BRANDS (the official CBD of the NBA). Only strictly pharmaceutical cannabis company really working with Johnson & Johnson except Medipharm Labs who do contract manufacturing for AVICANNA & have ties to Janssen/J&J and Tilray. This will soar when J&J officially takes a stake. It is my opinion that AVICANNA will introduce MyMedi USA & partner with major insurance companies like Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield, United Healthcare, etc along with CVS, WALGREENS, & WAL*MART like they did with SHOPPER'S DRUG MART (the biggest pharmacy chain in Canada. Just my opinion. Bullish! 😎💎🌲🔥💨

ForsakenBLOOP

Not making the same mistake with NYCB as I did with WAL gonna diamond hand this bitch and buy more sub 3 if it ever gets there

uncivil_engineer42

I'm bearish on WAL. Their risk profile seems less extreme and has been tapering since last March, but it's still risk-heavy based on the things cited last year and the screenshot you posted. I've been meaning to go through the FFIEC filings for some of these other banks, now that we're probably nearing the end of another bond rally... I think the key to playing puts on some of these banks is going to be finding a bank that is 1) highly leveraged, with 2) a very risky loan/asset portfolio - especially when weighted with CRE - which 3) either hasn't tapered off or has been covered over by brokered deposit/other short term high rate funding. VLY, for example, has tapered off their short term non core funding by ~50% since last year, while WAL has continued to rely on it.

Guild_League

>Invest in what you know! And what exactly do you know? seriously ask yourself that. I doubt you know anything about the banking sector or any sector. There were lots of other banks that would have made up for your loss in FRC if you were smart enough to spread your risk. PACW went to 3 then back to 10. WAL from 8 to 65+. ZION from 22 to 45. MCB from 25 to 55. CUBI from 15 to 60, and more others. Nobody knows anything. Not even the ratings agencies. All these analysts and experts only know how to look backwards and not forwards.

Dahc14

This ain't a liquidity crunch like March 2023 (yet) so no reason to close the bank. Asset quality issues are slow to develop and play out. Additionally, the Fed gave NYCB Signature Bank. You think the Fed wants to admit incompetence in deciding who to sell Signature to? Not a chance. Buy and stomach the volatility is the move here. Told y'all the same thing in March 2023 and I was lambasted as a loon...buying WAL at $8 and selling at $70 was a better return than the Mag7 over the same period.

fickdichdock

Not sure what exposure it has, but it doesnt matter. WAL always crashes hard when the bank panic news go around.

OcelotDense7287

Just made 10k with WAL. It’s free money. Same last March

nerdy-nate

okay so NYCB and WAL are crashing. Anyone have a guess on the next bank stock that will crash?

nerdy-nate

$WAL puts +22,400.00% 

nerdy-nate

$WAL also crashing today

fickdichdock

WAL -13% and falling

fickdichdock

WAL puts and SMCI calls you can thank my later

chase2g

Yes that’s what I mean haha look at WAL and KRE

matrix-escaper

I was hoping not to pay taxes on it. Ive almost had WAL for a year now. So less taxes if held longer

matrix-escaper

Sold WAL $73 calls and $10 sofi calls. How F'd am I? $100k of shares at risk of being sold off

Clam_Sonoshee

This is going to be entertaining for you\~ I got convinced and hyped up into LCID when I was a bit younger and lost everything there. Tried to take advantage of the banking crisis -after the two first banks failed- and bought into the only other bank that failed, FRC, while WAL my other option cruised on by to this day... Life happens lol.

WBuffettJr

Hey buddy! Looks like my remindme just kicked off reminding me what a know it all dick you tried to be about bank stocks last year. How’d that work out for you? You “lol’d” at me when I say regional bank stocks will double from there by the end of the year. I have to admit I got that wrong though…my Zion stock doubled, but my WAL stock tripled. You had all the answers though and said all of the banks would die. I guess you should have listened to “wbuffettjr” instead of condescendingly putting the name in quotes. 🤷🏻‍♂️

crusaderactual777

Are you me? I gained about $5k on WAL and FRC then bet big on FRC right at the end and lost about $7k.

WhiteColllarCrime_69

Remember last year’s bank earnings? WAL LMFAOOOOOOOOOOOO

fenriswulfwsb

I'd wait at least a week or two where you see an actual bottom develop. My anecdotal experience: I bought the initial dip on WAL last year during the "bank crisis" .. sure it has recovered now, but my initial investment went to half at one point cause I was too fast out of the gate buying during the early chop of bad news. This kind of thing attracts a lot of short term investor attention whose moves cause bizarre and outsized price fluctuations.

AbuSaho

I think the difference is WAL is 9+ months after that banking crisis. So it is easier to go great company. Compared to talking about buying any stock down 30% in a day. I imagine if you go back to the banking crisis it wasn't the same favorable comments when WAL dropped from 70 to 7. No position in MPW just interesting seeing a stock at 2009 prices.

AP9384629344432

It won't declare bankruptcy. Some of its tenants might, though. Dividend cut to 0 is far more likely. Many people are buying this stock just because it has a high dividend, which is a big mistake. WAL is different because it was in a much safer position than the other regional banks to begin with, and those who studied the company carefully realized it. Not guaranteeing the stock can't go up, but this is NOT a buy the dip opportunity.

Old-Culture-4511

WAL and PACW. The rest are “too big to fail”

AP9384629344432

Are you confusing the share price with the value of something? This is a hypothetical equal weighted portfolio, not $352 of META and $66 of WAL.

MoeMoneyMoProblems

Long WAL, VOO, QQQ, AMZN, RKLB

apeawake

Shut up moron. I loaded into WAL at four times earnings in April and made 100%. Even a crappy bank like KEY has made me 50% because I bought at 6-7x earnings so you can kiss my ass with your dog shit post.

A_Days_Past

Year is basically over now and I'm still shocked my best trade was picking up some WAL at $16. Which is one of my least researched positions. Wild how that ends up being my best investment of the year..

apeawake

Yeah I’m still 60% JAAA. And my play on WAL and kre has actually helped me beat the market this year despite that. Upside from here tho, I’m sure to underperform. That’s the trade off. I’ve been increasing exposure to international and emerging equities and mid caps.

apeawake

Wfc dfs ally in 2020: Market thought they were at risk of insolvency. I knew that was far-fetched. Fears of 08 are still with the market. Hence my next big bet WAL in April/may: same as above. BS not as iron-strong as big banks but deposits actually started to grow in q2. Mgmt is phenomenal. Avg cost was $30. Also bought up key usb and tfc. Given where they’ve ran, I still like WAL, but tfc might be the most undervalued today. USB is a better business tho. I think the iRobot deal goes through so shares at $39 are a solid chunk below the $51 deal price. Some reits are cheap. Ah one more, I think the market is overdoing it on lithium. Long term demand still outpaces Supply by a moonshot. Long $alb. Smaller positions in SQM and LAAC

OrderlyPanic

Yeah the entire indusry is primed to do well with a rate cut cycle next year - except for banks overly exposed to commercial real estate. I bought WAL during the panic early in the year and am up just over 100%

agelakute

TLDR: I'm a spoiled child acting as if I should've made a lot of money. I need to rant in hopes that I can stop thinking about this, please shit on me. I've been suffering massive regret not making bank from the FOMC meeting last week. With how good the CPI and PPI have been recently, I've been planning on yoloing on those calls for such a long time. Luckily, I had yolo'd 30k worth of 0dte Spy Calls that day but I sold early literally because of the first bearish thing that came out of Powell mouth like 2 minutes into the hearing. I made like 20k that day but if I had just held onto them for the rest of the day, I would've made so much god damn more. I had it a lot better than many other people that day but yet I still **absolutely** hate myself for thinking this way. I hate how much of a pussy I am for selling so early and I've now been blindly taking gambles looking at graphs to try to make up my would be imaginary money that I would've made. I've fully stopped blindly gambling on random graphs for now. I plan on doing another yolo attempt on the next FOMC meeting if the CPI and PPI continue to look good. If it doesn't, then maybe the one after it. But this time, I'll likely be buying either regional bank calls like WAL or housing calls like Z. Unfortunately the next FOMC likely wont have as much of an impact on the market as the last one did. For context, I'm a software engineer in my late 20s that got laid off during the bank runs this March. I only have 1 year of experience in the field. I haven't been able to land another SWE job after that. I pussy yolo'd that day because I'm feeling cornered in my life. This would've been my ticket to being able to live the slow life. Fuck me.

apeawake

Humbled by all the gains here! My best: WFC at $22, dfs at $40 in 2020. Sold at 100% gains And this year: WAL at $30. Just sold half 👌

Endgameplays

i almost purchased a nice chunk of WAL and was a pussy

shikarin

Already hit my price target on WAL but still 6 months before I can sell for long term gains. Up 300k. 🙏JPOW🙏

apeawake

The most likely outcome for stocks 12 months from now is positive returns. However, the risks are high. FFR is still above 5%, and the line between cooling inflation and crumbling economy is thin. The real questions are whether the risk and reward is balanced, and how much relative exposure to equities does that justify. Valuation measures which have accurately predicted 10 year returns have been flashing red for a few years now and the expected path is absolutely negative, and significantly underperforming t-bills. Timing this however, even in a 12 month horizon, is impossible. Yes the market is very expensive. But the most common “next step” for an expensive market is to become even more expensive. No one knows when or what will cause a reversal. Unlike market gains, which come like an escalator, marching up over time, market losses come like an elevator down - fast and swift. The median wall st 2024 target for the S&P is ~ 4900 per my observation. That’s about 7% higher than we are today. For my money, I’m holding funds like JAAA which pay me 7% with a fraction of the downside exposure of equities. I’ve also been holding some regional banks like KEY and WAL which have represented enormous asymmetric upside this year. They’ve carried my portfolio to a 25% gain Ytd despite my 65% allocation to safety. In my retirement accounts, I still hold the indexes, but it’s dialed down from my typical exposure. TLDR: The median outcome for 2924 is positive but the average outcome likely has asymmetric risk. The 5-10 year horizon is worrisome given very high valuations, and the risks of both persistent inflation and thus persistently higher rates, and an economic slowdown where we see both higher unemployment and an earnings recession.

apeawake

Wanna talk about buying ugliness, find me two other people here who bought WAL, KEY, or TFC when I did this spring. NO ONE wanted it

apeawake

Yes, I use CALF and VBR. I also hold shares of WAL, KEY, TFC but those are more of trades.

shikarin

Well you luckily avoided probably losing all your money. But don't worry, there's always another chance. Just this year you could've invested in FRC and lost everything or invested in WAL and 5x your money. If your post is not a meme, just put it in index funds. Or you'll just lose everything soon enough.

apeawake

Why do you hold EWBC and MBIN? I’m also a fan of some regional banks. Been holding WAL since April. Key and tfc.

Antique_Bat5003

I bought puts on MSFT yesterday and cashed out. Bought a LEAP on WAL this morning and am going to let it ride.

may344

Remember that one time WAL was like 15 bucks. Still regret not getting the fill on my call leaps 

jnas_19

Gonna pick up WAL, TMO, GOOGL and TSM today. Banking sector should recover

Ray661

Yup, there were a few gambles you could’ve taken during the banking crisis (for example, I “knife caught” WAL for a cool +100%, but the risks involved meant I didn’t put much into it, you don’t catch knives with your life savings), but past that, my investments are barely stable and I haven’t really felt good with any gambling prospects either. With that said, I’m glad this is the state the economy is in, cause the numbers I read tell me that things should be so much worse rn

apeawake

I bought a few hundred shares of $WAL at 28. Getting it at $8 would have been sick.

Lamarz

Not having more money to put in WAL. I only had $10k to put in at the time. FYI, no one actually could by it at $8 - WAL was only down to $8 for less than an hour. I bought in later that day and by then it had recovered to $20. 2nd biggest regret was putting in $1k into first republic bank. That one didn't go well...

MosDaddyda

I'm with you on WAL. I picked up a little at $27 and regret not buying earlier/more.

Quixotus

Shorting CS and WAL too early, not trading TOP and CXAI during the squeeze, refraining from longing MSFT and NVDA before the AI boom. There might be a few more I'm not remembering right now.

shikarin

Started with 40k in RH and have withdrawn 110k ytd. Rest of the gains in my other brokerage account with my bank. Mostly from a lot of WAL shares I bought in 10s and low 20s.

XIMADUDE

It was hammered because the Financial Times wrote a false article saying it was seeking to sell itself. CEO denied it as did two analysts who contacted WAL and said it was a false flag. So I bought and the rest is history. Analysts give it $50+ targets!!!

the_dalailama134

Yea WAL is another that will be ok. Got hammered even more than EWBC but looks like it got hurt more by rates than EWBC too. they'll both still be here in 5-10 years but EWBC having record net interest margin and doing share buybacks. The numbers are just phenomenal for them. WAL does have some more leverage and long term debt that EWBC doesn't.

XIMADUDE

WAL still looks the best to me. It has been dragged down with others but will go up. I still own from the massive drop in May when I bought at $18!!!! It went to $50+ and now has been dragged down to $41. It looks the most solid regional to me. Analysts love it. USB still likes Citizens and I am watching for further collapse for entry. I almost bought for the dividend on Monday but said no.

Key_Yesterday5264

Still beating the market, but started only 15 months ago tho. Biggest losses were LNC (sold) and WAL (still holding). Biggest gain was SMCI.

HerrJemine123

SCHW broke 50, WAL 40, banks in pain, fucking lovely!

XIMADUDE

I am just watching WAL, TFC, ZION, and PACW for entry. Left my TSLA for another time.

Burner8232

Anyone know what time specifically WAL releases?

Duander03

!Banbet WAL to $50 in 1 wk

Appropriate_Meat2715

This is hilarious, calls on $AMZN, $WAL and $MCD https://youtu.be/HWbLTMzcVqI?si=ICRgyoSEnjQZoXff

Appropriate_Meat2715

This is hilarious, calls on $AMZN, $WAL and $MCD https://youtu.be/HWbLTMzcVqI?si=ICRgyoSEnjQZoXff

StarWhorz00

Probably WAL puts soon

StarWhorz00

WAL

LFTD99

Blanket statements like this never apply to all stocks / businesses. I averaged down western alliance bancorp (WAL)during the bank run earlier this year. Why? WAL is well capitalised, has little exposure to tech and is not at risk of going off the rails with upcoming commercial rental issues. I am now sitting on a tidy profit and still reinvesting their awesome dividends. Although agreed averaging down something like crypto investments is suicidal.

UCACashFlow

Banks already went back up. I’m hoping something shakes out in the ABS world that creates enough headline noise so that CVBF and WAL will be solid buys again.

ebolognesi

I feel like buying options with 2 days expiration is too risky for me. Also, I still don't understand why some lines, like WAL/52/50 or SCHW/61/59 are both in Calls and Puts. Does this mean we should buy both a call and a put? Thanks

AbuSaho

Anyone else look back at how this sub reacted during crisises and see how it turned out. I went back to March 2020, Dec 2022, and then the time of the banking crisis in 2023. It is interesing how much people were saying not to buy or how the stock discussion narrowed. To use the banking crisis/FUD from a couple months ago. Most of the discussion was around buying JPM, BAC, C, or WFC. Not many were talking about buying WAL at $8 or PACW at $3.

AP9384629344432

Idk if you remember but a while ago I was talking about my 5 picks for the FT stockpicking contest. I picked long Teck/WAL/META/BTU and short Siemens AG. In the end, that equal weighted portfolio would have been [up 24.6% versus the S&P 500 (Total Return) up 19.4%](https://i.imgur.com/yoQKo8M.png). I'm not including dividends from TECK/BTU/WAL or Siemens AG. Insane how WAL was once down 70% at some point and is now down a paltry 13%. Granted I got almost all of these calls wrong except TECK and then META carried the day.

creemeeseason

That is impressive! WAL was pretty cheap going into this year, but still....the street left them for dead!

AP9384629344432

Even $WAL is only down about 15% YTD... pretty impressive given the insane selloffs in March & April.

fickdichdock

ZION and WAL approaching -4% weekly ZION and WAL puts approaching +200% 👌

fickdichdock

regional banks in free fall (WAL ZION etc)

fickdichdock

regional banks in free fall (WAL ZION etc)

fickdichdock

WAL meme bank -2.5%

m0nk_3y_gw

Agreed that this could be clearer, since it keeps getting asked. Maybe they'll update the text post to explain it in the future. > WAL/49/47 means that for Walmart they are discussing the 49 calls and 47 puts. The 49 calls are currently $82 (Call $). The 47 puts are currently $.4 (put $). (Looks like it is for this Friday's expiration, and these #s were from this morning, and have changed a little over the course of today - that call is now ~70 and the puts are now ~.45)

ObviousResult6374

You could get close if you were extremely lucky. If you would have put 3k into WAL when it collapsed, it'd be worth a almost 22k a few days later. Then if you sold, and played the volatility game with PACW for the next 2.5 months, you could have doubled that money at least twice. That was basically a one off though and you'd have to be insane to put that much money there when there was such a fear of banks collapsing

NVDAPleasFlyAgain

Might be too early if you got it for this year, I got WAL leaps for 2025

AllTooWell31

Bro I’m jacked to the fitch with WAL puts

AllTooWell31

Rumor of WAL failing?! Did I just make that up? Does it matter?!

AllTooWell31

I’m jacked to the Fitch in WAL puts

shikarin

I bought $40k of WAL at $12, so I'm familiar. 😊 If you want to buy a company that might or might not be liable for 100+ people dead, go for it. It certainly can go up. But nobody cares about valuations or fundamentals at this point.

StarWhorz00

Been watching WAL after playing puts in May before it crashed

_Slick_F10_

Anybody watching WAL? If fitch downgrades the banks over the weekend, it’s going to $5

UCACashFlow

Let’s see it happen. I severely doubt it, but I would love to pick up CVBF below $11. WAL was a solid opportunity under $11 as well. Would love to have another shot at those and lock in a 6%-7% dividend rate with CVBF.

hayden2510

I’d look at CMA before WAL or KEY