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EDX, Citadel, Paradigm, and Anchorage. A giant crypto puzzle. Can someone help me understand these crypto patents held by Anchor Labs? Posting this here cause it's mostly about cryptocurrency and cryptoassets.
CDS provides simplified overviews of the crypto space, based on primary-sources, to enlighten readers. We are passionate about crypto and dedicated ourselves to sharing content about this industry
Banking Crisis Deepens as CNBC Apparently 'Hides' Real Time CDS Market Data on Major Banks
Switzerland is the perfect example of why Bitcoin is innevitable!
Bitcoin Increasingly Feels Like a Credit Default Swap (CDS) Against a Collapse of the Banking System
Goldman Sachs & JP Morgan first of its kind crypto clearing house (RVP)
Once again, 14 years later, two "Too Big to Fail" Banks: Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank - Headed to the Same Level as in the 2008 Crisis
I compared real world prices between the big CEXs, some with zero commission some without and here are the results.
Why do we need Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency in general?
Instead of "buying the dip" El Salvador's President should focus more on how to save his country from an expected default!
Mentions
Bitcoin is not only a commodity, but it is an absolutely scarce quantity. It has no cash flows, etc. and is almost impossible to evaluate from the perspective of many in finance. Some personalities will still be open to learning more, and they'll require multiple touchpoints before they can start valuing it. You can try: - Fastest asset to 1T - Fastest growing network in history - Has a utility for billions of people for transferring value with final settlement in spite of capital controls in corrupt authoritarian countries - Has no counterparty risk, similar to gold, but moves over telecommunication networks with final settlement - Can be valued as a hedge against sovereign currency default, including the USD, similar to a CDS which still has counterparty risk in the event it's needed (large scale crisis) - Is recognized by billionaires and now Blackrock as a legitimate asset - Established as both free speech (code) and a commodity (CFTC) under US law - Trades globally 24/7 available anywhere with internet Those threatened by Bitcoin won't be interested. They may hold a grudge against you in future, although that could be a "good problem".
Is it possible to make a derivative out of an ETF? Something like the CDS of 2008 crisis?
(Published Feb. 27th) >For many people, the first time they heard about cryptocurrency might have been in splashy headlines about the skyrocketing value of digital currencies Bitcoin or Ethereum. They might have seen their favorite celebrities endorsing cryptocurrencies during the Super Bowl. If they hang on Elon Musk’s every word, they might have heard some mentions of dogecoin. But even after all that hype, some people still might not have understood what’s the deal with crypto. To answer that question, the New York Times tried to help. >In March 2022, the New York Times published tech columnist Kevin Roose’s “The Latecomer’s Guide to Crypto,” which offered some basic explanations to questions like, “what is a cryptocurrency?”or, “what is a blockchain?”. But in anticipation of criticism, Roose acknowledged that “crypto boosters will likely quibble with my explanations, while dug-in opponents may find them too generous.” >Swiftly after the Times hit publish, software engineer Molly White, software engineer Grady Booch, journalist Amy Castor, “Crypto Critics Corner” podcast co-host Bennett Tomlin, Dr. Catherine Flick, Ph.D., of De Montfort University Leicester and other cryptocurrency skeptics annotated Roose’s article to address the “many questionable or entirely fallacious arguments from cryptocurrency advocates,” they wrote. The annotations included critiques of arguments made in the article, ranging from the definition of the supposed market value of cryptocurrency to the unscalability of blockchain technology. >Roose, for example, points to El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele announcing that the country would develop a “Bitcoin City.” But as skeptics pointed out, a Rest of World article published just days before the Times’ crypto guide, detailed the lack of Bitcoin adoption among local businesses and consumers. Another article in Bloomberg, illustrated how local businesses were not using the digital currency to transact. (El Salvador adopted the U.S. dollar as its official currency in 2011, according to USA Today.) >Roose’s ambitious crypto explainer was written before the FTC disclosed that consumers lost millions of dollars to cryptocurrency scams and fraud, an indicator that scammers were using the novelty of cryptocurrency to defraud people, primarily between 20 and 49 years old in investment-related, business imposter, government imposter, and even romance scams. But perhaps more importantly, it was written after some articles in publications like Mother Jones and the Wall Street Journal and warnings from former PayPal CEO Bill Harris and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon all called Bitcoin or cryptocurrency overall a fraudulent concept. Those warnings beg the question: Why have some publications continued to boost the crypto industry when there were signs of its invalidity? >The criticism that followed the Times’ article is indicative of a much bigger problem about the way the press has covered—and indeed amplified—the cryptocurrency industry to regulators and the general public. The question is why. In light of crypto’s monumental collapses, isn’t it the job of journalists—who have the power to lead and shape the conversation—to do due diligence, ask the difficult questions and delve into the industry as deeply as possible, so readers understand what they’re getting into? >Decoding Crypto >Much like the rest of the financial sector, the cryptocurrency industry is fairly complicated to understand. Hilary Allen, associate professor at American University’s Washington College of Law, who has testified before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on the risks of stablecoins and argued that Congress should prevent crypto from causing a financial crisis, explains that crypto appears to be deliberately complicated to circumvent scrutiny from the public and regulators, even as it has been labeled as a tool for financial inclusion. >We’ve seen this before, during the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, when the finance sector said credit default swaps (CDS) were too complicated for regulators to understand, Allen explained. Investopedia defines CDS as a financial instrument that lets an investor offset their credit risk with another investor’s risk, meaning that a lender buys the CDS from another investor who pays them if the borrower defaults. >During the 2008 financial crisis, subprime mortgages, which were bundled into another financial instrument called mortgage-backed securities, enabled previously excluded consumers (particularly Black Americans and middle-income Americans) from buying a home. But when those new homeowners began defaulting on their homes and the economy collapsed, the people targeted for the so-called financial inclusion product were the same people who lost both their homes and their jobs, Allen said. >Is the cryptocurrency ecosystem substantial enough to send shockwaves through the U.S. economy as the Great Recession did? No. But it shares similar traits. Both target disadvantaged groups looking to build wealth. Both have had a disproportionately negative impact on people of color. And both continued to harm unsuspecting people until the problems they caused are too big for regulators to ignore. Now, the crypto boom has left consumers reporting more than $1 billion in losses from outright scams and billions more from the platforms proclaiming to be reputable. >One takeaway from the Great Recession was that journalists must maintain a critical eye on any financial services firms’ grand proclamations. Though there may be a wave of positive news coming out of a sector, it’s critical for reporters to consider their underlying motives. If investors and regulators with their authority and expertise did not see these collapses coming, how can journalists be more discerning? And to what extent does not being a subject matter expert influence a reporter’s ability to question the hype surrounding the cryptocurrency industry?
Lmao dude are you serious? Where do you think this guy got his inspiration? All the brokers you listed here accept payment for order flow from a few big market makers (citadel, apex, etc). They literally pay the brokers to receive your order so they can execute it. Now why would they do that you ask? Because they can shave pennies off the top on every single order. They can do this in different ways too: 1. Frontrunning 2. Internalizing (selling you now, buying later for cheaper) 3. Naked short selling (selling you now, not buying it later) - aka artificially diluting your stock. This probably happens a lot with CEX too, reason why some exchanges go bust when enough people withdraw. Bankrun hello? 4. 3. But also buying credit default swaps or short/puts on the stock you're buying. They steal your buy volume, use your money to short the stock, and when the company eventually craters they cash out on their shorts/puts/CDS. The stock market might be "regulated" but that is no guarantee that it's not completely manipulated and abused. Don't believe it? Watch the head of the SEC talk about some of the issues, watch Jon Stewart's recent segment on PFOF. Read books by older industry experts such as Dr. Susan trimbath
Ya I’m definitely interested in the history as Colombia as a whole and that’s just a morbidly fascinating part of it in a way with the wealth and crimes and charisma in his department, he even has one named after him from how many houses he put up there lol Barrio de Pablo Escobar so like there’s those people that love him and his face is everywhere and more so than comuna 13 but in other areas I really don’t think it should be talked about outside of there too much, it’s almost comparable to as if talking about how bad the Ukrainian war is on us as Americans to a Ukrainian. It would just be rude and insensitive unless handled realllly delicately because you have to realize brother as I know you already know there’s still family’s that are still actively grieving :/ It’s a weird feeling phenomenon in the same department of Antioquia that there’s such vastly polarizing opinions and views born out of one set of circumstances right? But also Colombia has been in constant War for so long brother from the 1640’s up to 1884 all the way to 1958 up even into the 1970/80/90s took over and even now there this AGC and other paramilitaries and guerrilla groups still in the mountains and countryside’s. There’s even CDS and CJNG out there with reported global membership reaching 26k people and the only continent they’re not intrenched in is Antarctica. But I say all this to say the history of Colombia as a whole is so rich and full and vibrant and if you take the time to read into some of the towns or cities or even neighborhoods like for instance El Prado is the only officially government protected area by the country or the state department because the buildings are so unique and vibrant and different, it’s the oldest too! I really encourage you to check more out on it bro you would really like it I bet! I’m currently trying to learning more about the north coast on the Caribbean ocean but also the north east to see the Atlantic coast and ocean! Colombia’s unique where it’s bordered by 5 countries more than any other in South America! Also there’s just so much more my friend I could oogle and oogle on about the magico realismo of the beautiful country!
There’s a solid book I used to read as a kid in high school - “A history of money and banking in the US…” Before that, I hated fiat money, always felt gold was the answer. Problem is? There’s not enough mined gold necessary to allow for the expansion of credit when fiat is tied to it in a ratio. You will have constant devaluations in order to grow credit, and in effect the economy. Same would be true for bitcoin. I don’t think we should ever use bitcoin as a monetary standard. With that said, it’s freaking perfect for a broad based fiat CDS like contract. That’s why I’m here. I’ll probably never leave, either.
CDS turbulence for U.S. banks? https://twitter.com/FossGregfoss/status/1654106925376700416?t=-J8Opw26b6j8MS7_7CN-6w&s=19
An actual comment worth reading. Plus the 2008 crisis was a systemic collapse caused by CDS. Comparatively, there is not that level of risk in the market presently. Apples to oranges.
Is this the CDS Market saying probability of U.S. sovereign debt default at all time high, as of Jan.'03? As of late Apr.'03, it's double '08-'09 odds?
All of that is priced in to CDS prices. The market knows the same things that you know. I'll try one last time: Show me any CDS which is priced to reflect anything, that even remotely resembles a prediction that "Most U.S. Banks Are Near Insolvency".
None of the "reality" metrics show what you're saying. If you can show me any CDS which is priced to reflect anything that even remotely resembles a prediction that "Most U.S. Banks Are Near Insolvency", post it.
It's not though. The collective wisdom of the CDS markets has not reached a conclusion that "...most US banks are near insolvency". No market is saying that. Not bank stocks, gold, bonds, or CDS's (on US debt or bank debt). Name one security, of any type, that reflects a prediction that "...most US banks are near insolvency".
If you look at what's been happening in the CDS markets as of late, that is exactly what big money is doing.
The CDS market is very illiquid. Deutsche Bank is being included because of their history not because of any evidence. They've spent last 10 years improving their balance sheet, but dirt sticks unfortunately. Current situation is more akin to 2001 dot com bubble.
I am an economist and let me tell you, 2008 was way, way worse than today. [Monthly US CDS in the past 25 years](https://imgur.com/a/GVnfN9O) Although I still believe the vulnerabilities of the banking system have always been there and we are now witnessing their collapse because of the high interest rate environment. I would still encourage everyone to buy and hold some BTC at the very least.
If I want to mine my own bitcoin it will cost me more than $18000 in hardware and electricity costs, and it will likely take some time. Or I can buy some bitcoin someone else has mined previously at whatever the current market rate is. This isn't hype, its just a question of what do I want more, bitcoin or fiat. Fiat is ripe with counter-party risk. In cash form, it is a melting ice cube. Putting it into the financial system to try and counter act that with "yield" or "interest" means I am trusting someone with my assets in hope of a return. If I put $100,000 into a bank today, what are the odds I'll get it back? 99%? 99.9%? It's not 100%. Bitcoin has zero counter-party risk and is non-inflationary. What is that worth? Depends on your trust in the current system. Greg Foss calls bitcoin a credit default swap on the banking system. He's not wrong. Currently that CDS is trading at $28k. It only costs $18k to mine, so the miners are in profit. Only issue is they can only mine 900 new bitcoin per day currently. That's how many get mined whether there is 1 person mining, or 5 billion people mining (or replace people with ASIC's). After sometime next April, that number will drop to 450 bitcoin per day and the mining cost will likely rise to over $30k per BTC. There will be efficiency improvements in hash rate / Joule, but electricity will likely get more expensive in USD due to inflation, so costs may be even higher. The only way bitcoin is "going to zero" is if inflation goes to zero, the banking system becomes "risk free" and stops fractional reserve banking, governments stop trying to censor payment rails, governments and banks stop seizing assets, and all governments globally stop deficit spending. I don't think this is going to happen unless there's a complete system collapse AND everyone learns from it. Basically this is impossible. If someone invents bitcoin 2.0 (many have tried and failed) that is vastly superior, it will start to eat at bitcoins market share and people will use it as a store of value and medium of exchange. There will be a long period of adoption where you will be able to trade your bitcoin for "new coin" and laugh at the old people clinging to their "old timey" version of bitcoin. Basically "new bitcoin" will do to bitcoin what bitcoin is doing to fiat. In the middle of it, no one will agree it's better. It will take many years to build a new network and supplant bitcion, just like it is happening now with bitcoin supplanting fiat. One thing I'm guessing though, bitcoin will first replace fiat before anyone moves on to an actually better "new coin." Another thing to keep in mind is that bitcoin is not standing still. It evolves. Slowly, but steadily. So any substantial "new ideas" might make their way into bitcoin making "new coin" a waste of time.
CDS' only at 4 year high? rookie numbers
Nice write-up. Playing the devil's advocate, I feel like it falls short in explaining the real-life problems that it could solve. There is only one example scenario givem, and it can be solved in much easier ways than using a blockchain. >During the 2008 financial crisis, markets were stopped while major players took positions in CDS’s, and were only restarted when those parties had moved their chips into a winning part of the board. During the GameStop saga, Robinhood turned off stock purchases for retail investors. (...) History is full of examples where even litigation as a backstop is ineffectual, as the business who did the wrongdoing factored the cost of litigation into the overall profit/loss of the project, and just marked it off as a further expense. It's easy to argue here that changing the law so that the litigation/fine subsequent to the wrongdoing is not worth the effort of committing the wrongdoing. You would have the problem solved without having to basically change the whole world's financial paradigm.
When I referenced the CDS spike, I meant to imply that I expect DB to be the next major bank to fail.
I think the CDS spike on DB speaks for itself. My puts printed quite nicely, and I may open some more if the IV tamps down a bit.
OK I might be wrong just checked the term again. You can read CDS [here](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/creditdefaultswap.asp). Sorry for spreading fake news.
tldr; As discussed on tonight's evening news update, Charles Schwab’s CDS agreements — the cost to insure bondholders against possible default/failure — are spiking. Earlier in the day, concerns grew around European financial group Deutsche Bank, and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen convened a closed door meeting of top American bank regulators. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.*
Yeah, then have a look at ALLY CDS.
Deutsche Bank CDS soaring 👀👀
CDS on all my USD. That’s it.
So normally, if I would charge 8.3% one would assume I consider the risk lower than 8.3% but maybe the insurer says "if they default, they will get bailed out, serve their bonds and we are fine", so the 8.3% is chance of default without bailout. Also the sum of all CDSs could exceed the sum of underlying bonds - people buying CDS signal to the insurance that the rate is low and bet on default at that rate, making the rate go up. At some point those speculators have an incentive to bring about the default.
Sure! A Credit Default Swap is a derivative and thus a financial contract. It is an insurance against the loss of a specific credit default of a specific entity (in this case, short-term bonds from Credit Suisse). There are two sides of a CDS deal: The "insurer", a financial institution and normally a bank, and the entity that seeks insurance. The insurance fee is the rate of the CDS, in this case >830 bps which means >8.3% per year. The "insurer" on the other side of the deal gets these cash flows and has to properly risk manage in order to make money from this and not go bankrupt by its own in case of a default. The problem is that this part of the derivative market is gigantic and all the bank-to-bank interconnections are impossible to grasp. It is a ticking time bomb and the zero risk mentality that central banks signal with their bail-outs doesn't help as this leads to a moral hazard.
Please explain. CDS are credit default swaps, right? Are these bets on a company's collapse? How are the bets?
Good post and I would agree that it is partially sentiment (always have been). I would say there is institutional money maybe. And money is not coming in because people are not trusting banks. If this was the case, then these would show up in the option market (put of options) or bond market (CDS).
BCH is the only UTXO chain that enables somewhat complex usecases (that are not turing complete), with thing like OP_CDS, Native Introspection, and the upcoming CashTokens update in May. Codewise, it's way ahead of BTC, since it is optimizing for much more scaling. You would be surprised how unoptimized Bitcoin Core code is. There is really not much need for more performance, when you plan to stick to 1MB blocks forever. Source: I contribute code to BCHN, one of BCH implementations.
>Blockchain didn't cause the MBS, CDO, CDS, synthetic bonds crisis of 2008 and enslave 98% of the world's population. >Blockchain didn't drop 2 atom bombs on humans or perform 100s of nuke tests in the 50s and 60s that seriously jeopardized the environment (funny all the climate grift and recycling tree huggers never understand or complain that the earth's atmosphere, oceans were severely damaged by gigaton thermonuclear explosions conducted during the cold war arms race) >Blockchain does not fly on jets or airplanes that pollute the atmosphere and cause global warming every hour >Blockchain didn't go to epstein island to abuse and sacrifice kids to Moloch >Blockchain didn't issue money printed out of thin air So far
Blockchain didn't cause the MBS, CDO, CDS, synthetic bonds crisis of 2008 and enslave 98% of the world's population. Blockchain didn't drop 2 atom bombs on humans or perform 100s of nuke tests in the 50s and 60s that seriously jeopardized the environment (funny all the climate grift and recycling tree huggers never understand or complain that the earth's atmosphere was severely damaged by gigaton thermonuclear explosions conducted during the cold war arms race)
He's not comparing Bitcoin to CDS. He's comparing clueless auditors with useless reports to clueless auditors with useless reports
CDS self fudded themselves lol. Shady ass ceo. Stupid movements of funds. Don’t blame binance because CDC has shitty management
Actually probably just one smaller one of a massive black hole which litigation May soon fill a certain 2008 balance sheet with proper value for the CDS position it held and has been suing for over 11 years now. Fill that black hole with the correct value of its hedged payout and all balance sheets volatility may stabilize. Like if Indians Jones didn’t steal that thingy from that cave place maybe the temple walls wouldn’t have collapsed - but if you rewind it it reconstructs and stabilizes when he puts the stolen valuable thingy back.
You are a classic narcissist. You feed off your audience and not in an inspiring way. You laid the ground work for decent content back when in the crypto space, but saw the allure and vanity and went down the way of fing people knowingly selling shitty product. You’re no different than the analyst in the dot com bubble touting stocks they internally knew were shit, no better than the banks who sold packages CDS products and then secured a net short position before the repricing. This using a im cleansed post you thought it would be. I speak for a lot of the communities and everyday people that were rigged pulled off your buzz feed click bait by saying eat shit and croak mate..
People forget that GS was selling off their CDS obligations while they knew the mortgage market was rotten. I think they ended up settling with the SEC.
Agree OP’s question is basically what happened on 2008. Everyone now talks about CDS and mortgage backed securitiyies being to blame for the crisis. But alot of people dont remember that the crash was happening over the course of a year. Sept and oct remembered because lehman triggered a run on the bank (on wall street). The last 14 years is exactly what happened during a run on the bank. But now its worse, and were repeating history up to the crash. Its gonna be worse this time. Alot worse.
Oh I thought you actually had something there. > developed by a single private party without transparency of how it’s implemented or 3rd party code audit https://www.ssi.gouv.fr/entreprise/certification_cspn/ledger-nano-x-fw-se-version-1-2-5-1-2c970004-fw-mcu-version-2-8/ English version - https://www.ssi.gouv.fr/entreprise/certification_cspn/ledger-nano-x-fw-se-version-1-2-5-1-2c970004-fw-mcu-version-2-8/ > “Ledger Nano X, FW SE: Version 1.2.5-1 (2C970004), FW MCU: Version 2.8” - meets the security requirements set out in its security target [CDS], based on the level of evaluation expected for first level security certification." > it will be very easy to insert a small piece of code to store all private keys generated on the device and send them out when it detects connection to a remote server https://github.com/LedgerHQ/app-bitcoin-new Dude, just stop.
You have futures, options , Variance swaps, SOFR v LIBOR, CDS and various FX carry options to look into. Sophistication is not needed because no one outside of retail knows how to do it. Just either hold and weather the storm, or purchase cheap insurance on VOL and roll it maybe costing 1-3% yr in premium of portfolio being protected. Otherwise if you can’t find a market that’s already available to hedge given there are so many options, then just don’t do it
CDS. Crypro derangement syndrome....
> It seems to be very regulated and was very stable from regulatory standpoint. Tell you a secret. Everyone thinks govt agents are supermen out there to save. In truth, most of them are just dumb bureaucrats who know jack shit and are always reactive to a situation, to take a proactive stance/preventive. You see it from the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. 1) Most of the dimwit regulators who couldn't figure out the contagion of CDS. 2) They didn't bother to learn either because they previously thought banks were responsible adults and wouldn't dig their own graves. Yeah, they are wrong. Govt don't tend to hire or retain the smartest folks for a lot of reasons. First, they don't pay well. Second, your employment is subjected to whatever next idiots who get elected by a clueless mass. Third, meritocracy often gets drowned in red tape. The smart ones eventually exit via the revolving door and use their public servant knowledge/experience against the public sector to make money.
Foss when his analyzing FIAT markets = quality content. Foss when his screaming BTC for the kids = run. His paper on Bitcoin is still a great read from a CDS POV.
Suddenly these reckless institutions will have to reimburse lenders with money they don't have.. again Maybe that is why people are loading up on the CDS and selling credit suisse because they believe they will have trouble making good on their debts once the defaults roll in. They think they will catch credit suisse with their pants down and cause some pain, but are banking on them being too big to fail. Then, the lenders get them hooked on more loans with nasty terms credit suisse can use to pay them back.
CDS market going to ATH literally means the market believes they will fail. You don't buy credit default swaps for giggles you buy them to trade your credit exposure to reduce counterparty risk.
Go to r/Wallstreetbets and look up the fantastic DD on Credit Suisse and Deutsch Bank. Dude isn't creating fud. Credit Suisse and Deutsch Bank are fucked. The problem is they're what is considered systemically important financial institutions that are connected to a significant portion of the global economy. The CDS market has already flown off the handle and is higher than 2008. The market believes that Credit Suisse and Deutsch Bank are going to fail. Once that happens there's going to be a similar deleveraging event to 2008.
UBS CDS just shot up decade high too
They aren’t the only ones. GS, JPM, & BOA are all peaking in CDS along with CS. ***This is going to be a Bloodbath.***
Nothing materially changed about how the financial system functions at the commercial level. These banks are so large they are considered systemically important. The CDS market is higher now than 2008. The market believes that Credit Suisse and Deutsch Bank are going to fail. When that happens there's going to be a deleveraging event just like 08'. They're going to be restructured by the government but still require a bailout because no one wants to buy them out. They are fucked and by extension the global economy is going to seize up.
Thanks to the derivative CDO's market a sovereign going bankrupt would likely have the same effect as the MBS crisis. Commercial banks at this scale are systemically important to the global financial system. Credit default swaps are absolutely blasting through 2008 all time highs. Higher default swaps means the market believes CS and Deutsch Bank will fail. A CDS is a derivative that allows an investor to swap or offset their credit risk with that of another investor. To swap the risk of default, the lender buys a CDS from another investor who agrees to reimburse them if the borrower defaults. Same situation as 08' different securities market.
Yes it's true. Lots of CDS bought on credit suisse similar to Lehman Brothers
The Default insurance (CDS) on Credit Suisse is actually approaching the same level as during the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and the shares tanked more than 50% this year so far. Deutsche Bank is also tanking like crazy and is in a similar path. Fun fact, tomorrow the FED has a closed meeting regarding the situation with Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank and we might see a volatile week in all markets.
>Right now, The Default insurance (CDS) on Credit Suisse is approaching same level as during the collapse of Lehman Brothers. This should have been the headline. Perhaps now they will act *before* the fact - if there is any course of action.
Everybody here wants BTC to trade like an inflation hedge, or a safe haven asset. It might have started doing that when the EUR and GBP collapsed vs the USD, but we're only going to know in retrospect. Plenty of fake outs before. They just bailed out the British pension plans, and CDS markets indicate the market thinks both Deutsche Bank and CSFB may default on their debt. Nobody knows what's gonna happen, but there's a ton of risk in the system. If BTC was acting like a safe haven, $10k now would be smart. But it's not acting like a safe haven. Neither is debt (unprecedented), or gold. Because we're in an everything bubble. In an unknown environment, DCA is the best way to take speculation out of the equation. Figure out how much you can afford to lose, over what period of time, and put in that amount of fiat every month or week. We have no idea where crypto is going in dollar terms or regulatory terms. But it's pretty clear that Uncle Sam and Monsieur ECB are gonna run their currencies into the ground ... eventually. That's the timeline you need to think on.
People shot on banks and are in reenactment of ~2003-2008 in about 10 months. Advice: get on polkadot or cosmos or whatever and build a cross-chain smart contract that pays out a big lump sum of one token if the yield of another token fails to realise. In exchange you pay a small yield rate back until that happens. That’s the equivalent of a CDS. There you go, invented your next big thing in crypto.
So Trader, Market Makers ie the ones who make these vehicles get paid regardless. For the desk i worked on, hig salary with a profit target, and 1 to 2.5pcnt (more depending on the bank and level) of your book profit. Basically that leads to a culture of taking risk because there is no real risk to the individual, actually it incentivises risk. If youre down one month, you take risk to make sure youre up the next. Whats worse, this is the dirty little secret, these CDS are OTC so they were self governed by banks. Someone like me, can hide losses by cresting instruments..which people did. Working in this environment is feudal, you believe in your own bullsht and aura. Everyone is right in this board about the rich getting richer, its all about information. The general public unless you create a group a'la Gamestop don't have the resources to get the best deals. Ps look at Yaboo finance, all the main sites, look for the asterisk where it says the data is 12 mins behind or delayed. Thats long in the market. Thats why I believe, the only way to fix the system is to either fix people and their greed, or Star Treks replicators where everything is accessible. I wonder which one is more likely.
Yawn. Was a tongue in cheek references into birth of Bitcoin. I know full well what SubPrime, Repos and a CDS is. Lehman Bros regularly appear in lists of the worlds largest ACCOUNTING scandals.
Except, if Bitcoin behaves as a CDS (i.e., increasing in value when the underlying asset is increasing in risk of default) relative to fiat money… wouldn’t you expect it to increase in value as the dollar degraded in value? That’s the opposite of what we are seeing in this chart
> Bitcoin is a CDS on government liability hrhr
Alright man - once you said CDS I stopped reading because I saw all I needed to. Congratulations. You get it. It’s all tail risk baby.
If it’s CDS on gov liability then it’s just a proxy for QE/QT. And now we are in a QT cycle so in theory it should go down and stay in trend until the countries go QE again.
The investment world is not dominated by retail investors. It's dominated by institutions with mandates and heavy regulations. You and I may not perceive Bitcoin as a risk asset, but those institutional investors certainly do. When inflation is high and interest rates are high, institutional money managers go risk off. They sell off their risk assets to buy cash or cash flowing equity. We live in a world where cash is still king. Bitcoin only has 10 years of network effects. The dollar has about 60 years of network effect. It takes time for people to understand what kind of money Bitcoin is, especially when everyone only knows money as government debt that can be created at infinite. It took me about 5 years before I took Bitcoin seriously. Bitcoin is a CDS on government liability. Think of it as insurance against government created moneys
A lot of these crypto funds are founded by people who were just early in crypto rather than skilled in finance. As people like to say, "everyone is a genius in a bull market". The level of degen gambling is astounding. Hardly anyone seems to know how to hedge/diversify and they all just yolo into one big bet like a bunch of amateurs. For example, all these CeFi lending fiasco are either connected to Luna or 3AC. They are all fucking worse than banks in 2008. At least banks couldn't see the contagion problem via the opaque financial instruments, like CDS. Here, everyone is degen yoloing on the same shit as clear as day. People says "we are early in crypto". I am not sure if the entire industry is run by amateurs is a sign of it.
https://daistats.com/#/ 131.53% DAI collateralization ratio $9Bn DAI in the market. If prices keep falling, DAI could depeg too. > 79% of DAI is now backed solely by centralized stablecoins like USDC & USDT. This is an ATH. This price crash is turning DAI into a wrapper for these centralized stables, which were added as collateral to stabilize the peg during high market volatility. https://twitter.com/ChrisBlec/status/1538242734590504969?s=20 This is CeFi. Security-wise, CDS depends on market arbitrageours doing the right thing. Monetary policy-wise, the circulating supply in CDS depends on people going long on the collateral. This means that the supply will get pumped or sucked out of the system depending on collateral price action. A better characteristic for money that is aimed at real-world usage is to scale up and down depending on usage.
He just had to wait until June 2007 when Bear Sterns got its margin call and had to get out of $20 bil in CDS. That was the real beginning.
Credit derivatives - CDS and CDOs - are completely synthetic instruments, how does BTC relate?
It wasn't really anything to do with CDS, and it's not so much the bankers this time, it really was mostly the politicians who responsible. Not just Greek, but all Eurozone politicians--and especially Dutch and German. First, Greek politicans were magnificently fiscally irresponsible and were guaranteed that the music would stop at some point. Normally they would have seen warning signs in the market (investors demanding higher yields on their debt) and been prevented from getting in so far over their heads but European banks assumed that if necessary other Eurozone members would bail them out, so they treated Greek sovereign debt as equally risky as German sovereign debt. This was a mistake and is the bankers' sole responsibility for the sovereign debt crisis. When the crisis came to a head other Eurozone members insisted on forcing upon Greece an unsustainable (and indeed ultimately failed) policy of fiscal austerity in order to save *their own* banks which had made these bad loans without having to bail them out *too much* with German/Dutch taxpayer money. Of course, in the end the bridge loans (read: bailouts) they did offer Greece went almost entirely to repaying their own banks (read: bailouts) after a very short stop in Greece. And the austerity measures totally fucked the Greek economy and left them with a higher debt/GDP than at the beginning of the crisis. The ultimate root of the problem is that the Eurozone is a monetary union but not a fiscal union. The USD works as the national currency of the entire US from San Francisco to Pittsburgh because we are part of a fiscal union with compensatory fiscal transfers (e.g. social security, military and pork barrel spending, etc.). What Greece *should* have done IMO is told the German and Dutch who benefit from their export-boosting artificially-cheap Euro that the time has come to form a more perfect union with a much larger system of fiscal transfers within the Eurozone or else Greece will go back to the Drachma and regain the crucial exchange rate flexibility that ECB's control over monetary policy did not allow them.
Bitcoin is more akin to CDS than stocks …
I happened to watch the big short yesterday. I was struck, in particular, by the scene when they guys who had bought CDS's to short the housing bubble couldn't believe it when the CDO's (basically the packaged up sub prime mortgages) spot price was going up while mortgage defaults were going through the roof. The film posits that that was because the large banks knew the end was nigh and colluded with ratings agencies to keep the price high while they off loaded them. Doesn't the sound eerily similar to today? The price of stocks shooting upwards for no earthly reason. The price of, effectively, fiat default insurance, Bitcoin, going down? Perhaps I'm just projecting because the film hit some nerves for me, but when something doesn't make sense: check your premises. Is the market really operating as it should? Are prices logical?
I'm sure he would argue banks produce services and he does love insurance, which is basically what CDS's are.
EXACTLY! You have to remember CDS, disc and such use to be MASSIVE revenue stream for music industry that simply dried up in the last couple decades, live concerts are where they decided it needed to be made up. Artists literally become multi millionaires off concert tours NOT the music itself like years ago.
You have to remember CDS, disc and such use to be MASSIVE revenue stream for music industry that simply dried up in the last couple decades, live concerts are where they decided it needed to be made up. Artists literally become multi millionaires off concert tours NOT the music itself like years ago.
tldr; The cost of insuring Russia’s government debt now signals a record 99% chance of default within a year, according to CDS data. The impact of one of the world's most significant economic powers going into default seemingly has the world worried. The next move will be critical for the crypto market and macroeconomic stability globally. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.*
tldr; The cost of insuring Russia’s government debt now signals a record 99% chance of default within a year, according to CDS data. The impact of one of the world's most significant economic powers going into default seemingly has the world worried. The next move will be critical for the crypto market and macroeconomic stability globally. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.*
tldr; Triall, a tokenized platform for blockchain-enabled clinical trial technology, has partnered with Crucial Data Solutions (CDS), an eClinical software provider that offers a range of specialized applications for clinical trial data collection and management. As part of this partnership, Triall will integrate its blockchain APIs with CDS' solutions, realizing the world's first end-to-end platform of eCl *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.*
Hardly. It's seen way more development than BTC (which is not a zombie coin). OP_CDS, world's best diff adjustment algo, affordable CashFusion, evm-compatible sidechain; May is bringing bigints and native introspection (which can possibly enable algorithmic stablecoins on the mainchain). Check https://cash.coin.dance/development Most importantly: decentralized development - no single team is in charge, which is unique for a PoW coin. Lots of performance work too. I can validate Scalenet's 256MB blocks on an RPi4 in 10 minutes. Not practical at this time for blocks that big, but just imagine what RPi5 will be able to do. Surely practical for current 32MB blocks. I cannot post the link directly because it's shadowbanned by reddit, but check my own research here: read. cash/@mtrycz/how-my-rpi4-handles-mining-256mb-blocks-3ca73237 Also, given the fundamentals and purpose (p2p ecash) it's got the biggest longterm potential - whybitcoincash.com But by all means, do your own research! And lol, compare these facts with the number of downvotes on my comments. Nobody wants this genie out of the bottle.
So I've watched lots of Charles' AMAs and Ben Goertzel's impression of Charles' education is exactly in line with what I've understood from the times I've seen him speak on it. Doesn't seem to be any evidence of Charles having lied from what I've seen on this sub. CDS, Charles Derangement Syndrome, has taken hold in this sub it seems.
The idea of buying risky but very profitable assets (CDO) and then insure them to reduce the risk (CDS) is a story we already saw 15 years ago
One of the most important lessons from the 2008 financial crisis is that you can use financial engineering to hide and consolidate risk, but no matter what you do, you can't make the risk disappear. CDO consolidated the risk of multiple individual mortgages into a single product that it was hard for it to blew up, but when it did, it was massive. CDS further consolidated this risk until combined risk was now taking down AIG
Well, I think its CDS. Cardano Derangement Syndrome.
Oh yea, fully agree. Crypto has precisely 0 in common with the CDO’s and CDS’s. And if he really believes that he would not be fit for his job. Which is probably the case.
But the debt bundled into the CDOs were able to get higher Moodys ratings than they should have because of the CDS products. Basically, you could take shit debt you knew someone making minimum wage with bad bad credit would default on, take out “insurance” on it, and suddenly Moodys slaps an A rating on the debt. Unfortunately, those providing the insurance didn’t have the $ to pay out and cover the collapse.
2 Network effects feeding off each other. SOV and lightnings digitally native medium of exchange / internet money. Bitcoins a CDS on fiat and insurance against a collapsing credit bubble (of course the price of bitcoin will come down with everything before people understand that it isn’t a risk asset but bearer property)
People thinking is a risk on asset rather than baselayer bearer instrument money that is a CDS against fiat
Bitcoin is a network effect black hole of monetary value that allows for free market economic principles to flourish in a digitally native economy. The utility created by the network accrues to unit holders and is comparable to the internet, if it had a native token. Fundamentally lightning is growing week over week and entrepreneurs are building rails on top of this network. Most institutions think it’s a risk on bet against inflation and Fed printing / should correlate with equities. Bitcoin is a bearer base layer money optimized for security and survivability. It’s CDS insurance against fiat collapse and an inflationary economic system that needs to print money to maintain growth against the deflationary force of technology.
Disclaimer of my bias: I believe in BCH, BTC's roadmap is DOA. In 2015-2017 there was the "blocksize debate", on weather Bitcoin should scale onchain or not. If you read the [whitepaper](https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf) or any of Satoshi's writings, Bitcoin was always intended to scale onchain. But there were people that believed that Bitcoin's properties, that are instrumental to it being p2p electronic cash, are more important than it being p2p electronic cash. They won, mostly [through censorship.](https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3h9cq4/its_time_for_a_break_about_the_recent_mess/) It's a rather long and nuanced story, lost in an avalanche of gaslighting. (Fun fact, the "temporary new rules" are still inplace). So that people that supported the original roadmap made a hardfork of Bitcoin in 2017, called Bitcoin Cash (as opposed to bitcoin not cash). It's been doing ok since, modulo the recent bullrun. It has a lot more usecases than BTC, and has gotten several new features, like cheap CashFusion, OP_CDS enabling non-custodial financial services, native transaction introspection is coming, and an evm-compatible L2 is in place since Summer. So yeah, low fees do matter, high fees push out usecases, and Bitcoin's primary usecase was always p2p electronic cash. tl;dr: BCH is Bitcoin with big blocks/more throughput. A recent Raspberry Pi can easily handle up to 200x more troughput than BTC.
Bonds are a very vanilla hedge to a portfolio, in fact. You can hedge varying types of risks with several different instruments, be it bonds, CDS and options, even other equities. But I'd say by far nowadays the most adopted hedge, at least in the retail space, is sitting in cash.
Well yeah, first I would like I got earlier in the crypto. But rewards from passive income are my favorite thing in the long term holding. How much is the fee for a Visa card from CDS? I also use a HOLD card it charges only a 1% flat fee.
Very sound and insightful info...thanks. CDS was a huge factor in the 2008 crash I believe but attention got diverted by the "toxic mortgage" collapse that preceeded it by a couple of years. I've never been a fan of derivatives, but I'm just an amateur.
In the US, credit (card) line use has increased the past month. Typically Dec is a high spend month for holiday gifts, Jan is typically a very low spend month (no extra cash), so it's natural to expect crypto prices to tank, as there will (possibly) less money into a market with already low liquidity. Inflation is running wild in the US, which requires an accelerated taper (US Treasury buys) of commercial paper, MBS & CDS in the market, asset prices drop, emergency markets swoon, "rich on paper" funds get margin called, then the US market gets a haircut. Crypto wasn't popular with "the financial bros" last year... & They rarely speak of it now... now it's all bond talk I've cashed out most of my positions & other than a few projects I believe in (BTC & ETH are not in that group), I'll probably "move on" to a new opportunity soon. Full disclosure: Bought BTC at $4k, sold near ATH Bought ETH at $200, sold near ATH I Think this vein may be played out...