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OK, buy when STH SOPR is < 1. This indicates STH's selling at a loss.
Search on a platform such as Glassnode for “Short-Term Holder Realized Price” or “STH Cost-basis”
Doesnt STH SOPR only look at on-chain purchases? i.e excludes all the stuff on centralized exchanges?
This is why buying on STH SOPR dips is a good strategy. When short term holders are selling in panic loss, sats move to harder hands.
funny thing is that only STH (short terms holders) are selling realizing loss, and LTH are buying as crazy :)
Yes of course unique. These are LTH coins (have not moved in 6 months) once a coin moves it becomes a STH and wouldn't count for that cohort again.
You should be looking at STH SOPR and buy when it's red. That is when short term holders are selling at a loss and when you want to buy.
tldr; Bitcoin (BTC) must maintain a price above $92,500 to sustain bullish momentum, according to a Glassnode report. The report draws parallels between the current market phase and May 2021, highlighting risks if buying pressure decreases. The supply held by short-term holders (STH) is a key metric, with Bitcoin's price currently just above the STH cost basis of $92,500. Falling below this level could trigger selling pressure similar to past corrections. If demand remains strong, Bitcoin could stabilize above its all-time high, but market momentum is fading, indicating a risk-off sentiment. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
Bear in mind that the short term holder cost basis for BTC is around 91.7K and there is a significant gap in support levels in the 80ks (if you recall, btc barely spent any time in the 80ks). If the STH rp support breaks then a retest of 80k is on the cards. I shudder to think what horrors await alts in that scenario.
IMO, I think that BTC is going to go back up soon. See the $100k mark as more of a psychological number. Then the hype train with talks of US Strategic BTC Reserve (SBR) and European Union talking SBR, plus states like Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania, etc talking SBR... Many took distributions and profits when it reached ATH levels. Then the rate cuts went the other way as the cuts increased the value of the USD. Plus, Powell made comments saying the fed cannot not hold BTC. Overall, in many ways BTC like the stock market ebbs and flows on emotions & sentiment. What is interesting is that currently, we are at all time highs for STH (Short Term Holders) of BTC. Typically STH supply increases during bull runs and it is at an all-time high in the past 40 months (since last halving). LINK: [https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GfUp1nlbsAAyuq0?format=jpg&name=large](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GfUp1nlbsAAyuq0?format=jpg&name=large) As far as increasing, I see a pump on/around 1/20/25 when Trump takes officially takes office, or shortly after he takes office. If not for the SBR, for the changes in regulation and the new regime that will be friendlier to crypto. Right now, for the next month I think BTC may go up and down but will not change too much. The BTC Power Law chart puts BTC at about $99,400 on the linear progression line, so we are not that far off from that... I see support levels at $98k, $95k, $91k... Did a quick Fib retracement chart over past 3-6 months and key levels look to be around $97k then $89,900 then around $84k. What I mean by "key levels" is if the market drops strongly then most likely these are the next levels/amounts that it will go to (ex: if see a big drop from $97k then $90k is most likely next level). I really do not see it dropping below $90k... If it does then it could go down to about $84-85k but I really do not see that right now... I could be wrong though as I am not an expert. There's a very interesting chart I saw that overlays the past BTC cycles on top of one another. It is interesting to see how each BTC cycle is fairly similar... LINK: [https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GfSGettagAA7x5h?format=jpg&name=4096x4096](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GfSGettagAA7x5h?format=jpg&name=4096x4096) Again, I am not a financial expert.
There's no fixed answer man. You can look up STH cost basis, 200DMA, STH MVRV, STH SOPR etc.
Even if MSTR eventually trades back to par with NAV, he’s still incentivized to continue issuing convertible debt as long as the premium to NAV is >0%, and to further front run the rest of the Magnificent-7 (and sovereigns for that matter) to build an insurmountable lead that could conceivably pay dividends for generations. So at the current 3x it’s a no-brainer to keep the convertible debt gravy train going, and debt markets are far larger than equity markets so this could continue for quite awhile. But yah, I’m bummed I didn’t personally allocate anything in my Roth IRA to MSTR. It was in GBTC for years since March 2020 and then I swapped it for FBTC once Fidelity launched their ETF. But come next bear market, I will put a healthy chunk into MSTR, especially if it ever trades at a discount to NAV which is more or less how the bitcoin market bottoms (when STH-price trades below LTH-price or realized cap).
Took out 5-10% at around 100k. Not trading, not dca buying anymore. Just short setups with tight stop losses, small positions. Just to hedge. If btc drops 20-30% I'll do some buying. Also when the price tags STH realized price. I might buy then.
tldr; Bitcoin (BTC) surged above $62,000 on Sept. 19, surpassing the short-term holder (STH) realized price, indicating potential for further gains. The STH realized price, a key support and resistance level, is the average price at which short-term investors bought Bitcoin. Analysts suggest that maintaining a price above this level could sustain a positive market outlook. Data shows strong support around $62,000, with aggressive buying expected if prices dip. A spike in the Taker Buy Sell Ratio indicates bullish sentiment, suggesting further price increases. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
BTC Price is under STH realized Price. So no, you are not to late to the Party. Just be happy, that you have the chance right now. Buy some now, keep stacking via DCA. It will jump way over the STH realized Price.
tldr; According to crypto analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin's short-term holders, defined as those who have held BTC for less than 155 days, have absorbed most of the market's recent losses. The firm's analysis of the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH-MVRV) ratio indicates that new investors are currently holding unrealized losses, as the ratio has fallen below the equilibrium value of 1.0. This situation can lead to investor panic and potentially precede a more severe bearish market trend. Despite this, long-term holders remain steadfast, showing a preference to accumulate and hold onto their coins. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
This aligns with my bias. Sell between July - October 2025. Lump sum buy when STH cost basis falls below realized price in late 2026.
I’m gonna be buying like 15 STH with money I’ve had on the sidelines