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It's around the STH cost basis, bears really want to stay below that. Bulls want to be above it.
Well you could keep DCA cash into River, get paid the interest in bitcoin. When dip comes as defined by STH SOPA, make a purchase
5. So, what does this mean for us? It depends on who we are in the market: If we're short-term speculators like STH, today is a "super painful" day that should teach us about risk management, stop-losses, and position sizing. If we're long-term DCA/LTH, today is a sign that... The market is creating a lot of "new losers." The coin has been moved from the hands of those who can't take the risk. The downside potential from panic selling in STH is less than when everyone was making big profits. This isn't a day-to-day trading signal, but rather the "context" that... We're now in a cycle phase where new investors are facing one of the most severe liquidations in history. To put this into "strategic homework," think about three more points: If we know STH is suffering the most severely in history, how should we adjust our DCA pace, cash reserves, and leverage? If the price moves against our expectations in the next 1-2 months, do we have a plan in place today (both for a sharp rise and a further decline)? Do we want to be "the seller today" or "the seller today" in each cycle?
4. Cyclical/Past Patterns If we look at the chart (past periods), we can see that: Deep spikes on the losing side (deep red) often occur near the bottom or key capitulation points. This doesn't mean "this is the final bottom," but rather that the downside pressure from STH's selling pressure is nearing its end. So, we use this as a "helper." Thinking about the cycle is as follows: If there hasn't been a panic day like this, the correction cycle may not be over yet. However, if there's a day when STH loses more than 95%, we're in the "discouragement and pain of new investors" phase at its most severe.
3. Supply and Demand Structure Coins flow from weak hands to strong hands. Sellers today = STH at a loss. The opposite side of the receivers are usually LTH, institutions, and those waiting to "buy the dip." Panic selling is beginning to unravel. When the most fearful players sell, the market in subsequent rounds will be left with more resilient players, resulting in a decrease in the supply for the panic-selling side. Supply Summary: Every time this happens, the market is "changing ownership" of the coin, from short-term speculators to those ready to hold longer.
2. Psychological Most STH are newbies / those who are taking the bait / FOMO following the previous high. When the price drops sharply, they can't stand it anymore and are willing to sell at a loss. A loss of >95% means that there are very few people left who can still tolerate it. The ones who sold were those whose pain tolerance was truly exhausted. Psychological Image: "The last scream of the FOMO village."
What does "Today's STH sold at a loss of >95%" mean? 1. Statistical / Market Structure The chart indicates that the majority of STH sold today is "loss-making" coins, and the current level is in the -95% (lowest ever) zone. This means: If you only look at the coins moved by STH today, almost all of them are the ones who are hurting badly. Whenever a spike reaches this level of significant losses in the past, it usually coincides with capitalization periods or the end of a major sell-off cycle. Simply interpreted: "Today is the day STH sold one of the most painful losses in BTC history."
We didn’t even break the first one at 88-92k STH cost basis
Liquidity definitely plays into it. There's a lot of STH panic too, people who bought high need to sell low, it's just how it goes. Cycle tourists will be squeezed out.
IDK about 250k or next 6 months but IMO the corporate treasuries, nation states & bitcoin bond market (like STRF etc) has not yet caught on. once it gets going the STH supply is quite low to support it. sooner or later LTH will demand much more of a premium before selling out. that in itself is enough for explosive growth.
Although you’re right that a lot of new-comers are skeptical as According to the latest data from CryptoQuant, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) has fallen to 0.992, its lowest level since late April. So most of the new buyers are selling at a small loss but this normally is followed by a period of stabilization where Btc is redistributed to long term investors and can even be the start of a new bullish phase after renewing faith in the crypto market.
Think we're approaching the STH cost basis, would be nice to get above that.
that's the idea. macro views like M2 supply, fed funds rate. onchain metrics like MVRV Z-score, LTH/STH supply changes, ETFs, treasury companies, and way more.
Nothing wrong with that but we are right at STH cost basis right now. It's a great time to maintain or even increase DCA. If anything, lower it when STH SOPA starts to rise.
Bouncing off the STH cost average (108-109) is a textbook bull market pullback, but sentiment is very bad. Everyone thinks the cycle is over. Cycles don't usually end when everyone is telling you it's over. They end when everyone thinks it will never end.
tldr; Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) have reduced profit-taking as Bitcoin's price stabilizes above $112,000, according to Glassnode. STH spent volume, indicating recent buyers in profit selling, dropped to 45%, suggesting a balanced market. Bitcoin recently fell to $112,044 after hitting $123,100 earlier in July. Analysts note some recent buyers are selling at a loss, but optimism remains for Bitcoin's long-term performance, with predictions of significant price growth by 2025. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
tldr; A Glassnode report suggests that $141,000 could be the next major resistance level for Bitcoin if its price breaks higher. The report highlights the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, which measures the acquisition level of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. Bitcoin is currently trading above the STH Cost Basis, indicating net unrealized profit for STHs. Resistance at $125,100 has been observed, and a breakout could lead to $141,600, where significant profit-taking might occur. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
With STH cost base above $100k, I don't think we'll go there ever again.
Short term holder cost basis is already way above $100k. Volume is low because they don't yet have profit worth taking. Once STH reach 20% there will be more trading back & forth.
Wait for STH SOPR to drop below 1 before buying. This shows when short-term holders (< 5 months) are selling at a loss - basically weak hands getting shaken out. Good time for long-term holders to buy from those lettuce hands. https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/pricing/consecutivedays_sopr_sth/consecutivedays_sopr_sth_light.html The marker behaves a little differently in bears and bulls, so in a bull you might not be able to wait til it reaches below 1, but the lower the better. This is not a guarantee things won't drop lower after you buy of course, but at least you won't be smash buying tops. Hope this makes sense bro and good luck.
OK, buy when STH SOPR is < 1. This indicates STH's selling at a loss.
Search on a platform such as Glassnode for “Short-Term Holder Realized Price” or “STH Cost-basis”
Doesnt STH SOPR only look at on-chain purchases? i.e excludes all the stuff on centralized exchanges?
This is why buying on STH SOPR dips is a good strategy. When short term holders are selling in panic loss, sats move to harder hands.
funny thing is that only STH (short terms holders) are selling realizing loss, and LTH are buying as crazy :)
Yes of course unique. These are LTH coins (have not moved in 6 months) once a coin moves it becomes a STH and wouldn't count for that cohort again.
You should be looking at STH SOPR and buy when it's red. That is when short term holders are selling at a loss and when you want to buy.
tldr; Bitcoin (BTC) must maintain a price above $92,500 to sustain bullish momentum, according to a Glassnode report. The report draws parallels between the current market phase and May 2021, highlighting risks if buying pressure decreases. The supply held by short-term holders (STH) is a key metric, with Bitcoin's price currently just above the STH cost basis of $92,500. Falling below this level could trigger selling pressure similar to past corrections. If demand remains strong, Bitcoin could stabilize above its all-time high, but market momentum is fading, indicating a risk-off sentiment. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
Bear in mind that the short term holder cost basis for BTC is around 91.7K and there is a significant gap in support levels in the 80ks (if you recall, btc barely spent any time in the 80ks). If the STH rp support breaks then a retest of 80k is on the cards. I shudder to think what horrors await alts in that scenario.
IMO, I think that BTC is going to go back up soon. See the $100k mark as more of a psychological number. Then the hype train with talks of US Strategic BTC Reserve (SBR) and European Union talking SBR, plus states like Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania, etc talking SBR... Many took distributions and profits when it reached ATH levels. Then the rate cuts went the other way as the cuts increased the value of the USD. Plus, Powell made comments saying the fed cannot not hold BTC. Overall, in many ways BTC like the stock market ebbs and flows on emotions & sentiment. What is interesting is that currently, we are at all time highs for STH (Short Term Holders) of BTC. Typically STH supply increases during bull runs and it is at an all-time high in the past 40 months (since last halving). LINK: [https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GfUp1nlbsAAyuq0?format=jpg&name=large](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GfUp1nlbsAAyuq0?format=jpg&name=large) As far as increasing, I see a pump on/around 1/20/25 when Trump takes officially takes office, or shortly after he takes office. If not for the SBR, for the changes in regulation and the new regime that will be friendlier to crypto. Right now, for the next month I think BTC may go up and down but will not change too much. The BTC Power Law chart puts BTC at about $99,400 on the linear progression line, so we are not that far off from that... I see support levels at $98k, $95k, $91k... Did a quick Fib retracement chart over past 3-6 months and key levels look to be around $97k then $89,900 then around $84k. What I mean by "key levels" is if the market drops strongly then most likely these are the next levels/amounts that it will go to (ex: if see a big drop from $97k then $90k is most likely next level). I really do not see it dropping below $90k... If it does then it could go down to about $84-85k but I really do not see that right now... I could be wrong though as I am not an expert. There's a very interesting chart I saw that overlays the past BTC cycles on top of one another. It is interesting to see how each BTC cycle is fairly similar... LINK: [https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GfSGettagAA7x5h?format=jpg&name=4096x4096](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GfSGettagAA7x5h?format=jpg&name=4096x4096) Again, I am not a financial expert.
There's no fixed answer man. You can look up STH cost basis, 200DMA, STH MVRV, STH SOPR etc.
Even if MSTR eventually trades back to par with NAV, he’s still incentivized to continue issuing convertible debt as long as the premium to NAV is >0%, and to further front run the rest of the Magnificent-7 (and sovereigns for that matter) to build an insurmountable lead that could conceivably pay dividends for generations. So at the current 3x it’s a no-brainer to keep the convertible debt gravy train going, and debt markets are far larger than equity markets so this could continue for quite awhile. But yah, I’m bummed I didn’t personally allocate anything in my Roth IRA to MSTR. It was in GBTC for years since March 2020 and then I swapped it for FBTC once Fidelity launched their ETF. But come next bear market, I will put a healthy chunk into MSTR, especially if it ever trades at a discount to NAV which is more or less how the bitcoin market bottoms (when STH-price trades below LTH-price or realized cap).
Took out 5-10% at around 100k. Not trading, not dca buying anymore. Just short setups with tight stop losses, small positions. Just to hedge. If btc drops 20-30% I'll do some buying. Also when the price tags STH realized price. I might buy then.
tldr; Bitcoin (BTC) surged above $62,000 on Sept. 19, surpassing the short-term holder (STH) realized price, indicating potential for further gains. The STH realized price, a key support and resistance level, is the average price at which short-term investors bought Bitcoin. Analysts suggest that maintaining a price above this level could sustain a positive market outlook. Data shows strong support around $62,000, with aggressive buying expected if prices dip. A spike in the Taker Buy Sell Ratio indicates bullish sentiment, suggesting further price increases. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
BTC Price is under STH realized Price. So no, you are not to late to the Party. Just be happy, that you have the chance right now. Buy some now, keep stacking via DCA. It will jump way over the STH realized Price.
tldr; According to crypto analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin's short-term holders, defined as those who have held BTC for less than 155 days, have absorbed most of the market's recent losses. The firm's analysis of the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH-MVRV) ratio indicates that new investors are currently holding unrealized losses, as the ratio has fallen below the equilibrium value of 1.0. This situation can lead to investor panic and potentially precede a more severe bearish market trend. Despite this, long-term holders remain steadfast, showing a preference to accumulate and hold onto their coins. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
This aligns with my bias. Sell between July - October 2025. Lump sum buy when STH cost basis falls below realized price in late 2026.
I’m gonna be buying like 15 STH with money I’ve had on the sidelines