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Selling a covered call with a 99% chance of success and a 40% annual return!
2023-04-25 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of a Weather Girl
Hot Stocks: TSLA rises on signs of increased demand; CLX, X climb on earnings; SBUX drops
[UPDATE] Option Probabilities on SBUX, QCOM, HIG, GILD, F, CLX, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG
[UPDATE] Option Probabilities on SBUX, QCOM, HIG, GILD, F, CLX, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG
Option Probability Updates on SBUX, QCOM, HIG, GILD, F, CLX, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL
Option Probability Updates on SBUX, QCOM, HIG, GILD, F, CLX, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL
Trade idea: CLX calls for earnings! 🔮👀 Don't say I never threw you a bone🤷🏽♂️
Apple today is a good example why the markets are so hard.
What are your thoughts on "recession proof" stocks like CLX and LMT?
Innocan Pharma's Successful Expansion into Veterinary Services Market Could Mean Handsome Returns for Investors
$INNO InnoCan Pharma Successful Expansion into Veterinary Pharma Sector
$INNO InnoCan Pharma Stands Alone in Targeting the Intersection of Veterinary Services and CBD
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene just disclosed a February 22nd purchase of stock in Lockheed Martin. The stock is up over 20% in the two weeks since her purchase.
$INNO InnoCan Pharma's Promising Expansion into the Veterinary Field
$INNO InnoCan Pharma's Promising Expansion into the Veterinary Field
$INNO InnoCan Pharma's Promising Expansion into the Veterinary Field
Innocan Announces the Execution of a Research & License Agreement with Ramot, the Technology Transfer Company of the Tel Aviv University for Cannabinoids Loaded Exosome Delivery Platform (CLX)
Curious about this: Do stocks that are loser in a generally up year get more sell pressure at the end of the year to write-down losses?
($INNO) ($CDAK) Exosome-CBD Innovation is Bound to be a Gamechanger
2 CBD Stocks to Watch (CSE: INNO)(CSE: AYUR) As Congress Considers Federal Legalization
Innocan Pharma Announces the Filing by Ramot at Tel Aviv University of an International Patent Application for its Unique Cannabinoids Loaded Exosome Delivery Platform (CLX) INNO.CN - InnoCan Pharma Corporation
2nd Post on "Selling Options: Could it be this easy"
These worst-performing stocks could have a leg up in the second half, traders say
CLX stock analysis (Clorox) $BNOW
Mentions
Do all stocks capital appreciate ? Year to Date Returns of some pretty big and known names Campbell Soup Company CPB -23.82% Clorox CLX -25.20% HP Inc. HPQ -25.50% Constellation Brands STZ -27.29% Target Corporation TGT -28.99% Moderna MRNA-38.36% UnitedHealth Group UNH -38.76% Lululemon Athletica LULU -38.94% Without a dividend you have nothing but a loss.
Just saw that boring CLX is down today due to earnings. Is anything sacred anymore? Not even nanas wipes are safe. I’m not a downer, but I’m gettin there…
Dr. Donald managed to time this statement with the anniversary of him suggesting we put bleach in our butts to treat covid. At least then I could make a little money buying CLX.
have you guys considered that youre in shit stocks? my stocks are split, notables today are: ABBV, CLX, ES, GD, HD, IBM, OKE, XOM.
How dare you disrespect CLX like that! Do you have any idea how innovative their new formulas and blends for bleach are these days? Game changing stuff… I’m tellin ya
Everyone thinks the bubble is in AI, which is a self defeating prophecy. Is there some froth there, sure, but there’s also a high chance of high earnings growth for the next decade. The real bubble is in the safe, boring, mature companies that investors have been piling into for the last year to reduce AI exposure. WMT P/E: 39 AAPL P/E: 39 V P/E: 35 DIS P/E: 36 GE P/E: 33 CLX P/E: 43 PM P/E: 35 SBUX P/E: 37 All of these would be overvalued at 20. 100 year old, massive corporations with dominant market share. What’s the growth story here. Somebody tell me.
True but there are good buys on bird flu stocks CLX, vaccines Cvac, canned food Cpb and even SIRI best for a major emergency. Better to do what you can than to do nothing at all. Good luck to all
# **TLDR** --- **Ticker:** CCL, RCL, DIS, AMC, CLX, 3M **Direction:** Up (presumably, betting on chaos) **Prognosis:** Buy the dip on these tickers if a market correction happens due to war and pestilence. **Apocalyptic Horseman of Choice:** War and Pestilence (because *profit*) **Additional Note:** Author also mentions a potential housing market bust and stimulus checks from DOGE gains as possible catalysts for market correction.
CLX has not been doing well for the last 3 months.
$GME, $CLX 🚀🚀 
BOX, CLX, CROX, FOX, XRX. Which one?
Not usually one to brag but my CLX4 position is printingggg. HELLOOO OIL 
I need some help from future regards to explain what happened.  On Monday 9/30 at 10:15am, I sold a simple /CL 69.5/71.5 credit spread for a couple pennies, that was to expire the same day. -10 VERTICAL /CLX24:XNYM 1/1000 SEP 24 (Monday) (Wk5) /ML5U24:XNYM 69.5/71.5 CALL @.03 The high for Monday after that was roughly 69.25 so I figured there was nothing to see here. The settle price was 68.17 according to CME website: [https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.html#tradeDate=09%2F30%2F2024](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.html#tradeDate=09%2F30%2F2024) I was assigned short 10 contracts at 69.5 this morning. Fortunately this was on my paper account and I closed it for a -$25k. So, what exactly happened here? The call was seemingly exercised even though it was out of the money. It's hard to believe someone would do that on a paper account. The main issue with futures is that it takes a couple of days for it to settle and be assigned. I did not know I was assigned on Monday until this morning at 1AM when they just popped up in TD. I know you can plan the game with this in futures where you would buy a call, exercise, and not need the capital for contracts until it comes good. Is this what happened? Does this actually happen on the real side? I obviously cannot have this happen on my real account. It would have gone from a credit spread expired worthless to holy shit in a hurry. I'd be at  Help a regard out. 
Those are actually companies with < 10% EPS past 5 years, I was mistaken. But the list for < 10% EPS over the next 5 years is 2x longer, but regardless, these lists mean nothing. Here’s some with the EPS that you mentioned: - SCHL (scholastic) - GILD (Gilead) - NOK (Nokia) - KTOS (kratos defense) - CLX (clorox) - ENR (energizer) Again, this evaluation method of yours is meaningless
You bought September 16th. CLX never dropped below 165 that date...
Not sure i understand, CLX is down more than 1 percent since you bought it not up. Stock price goes down, PUT prices tend to go up
💭 You know, in retrospect, when the mPox news reached the top headlines, the safe and pleasant ticker to play was CLX. I don't know if that thing kills or stops mPox or even helps to use it as protection, but it makes sense if people use it more.
I’m going to go out on a limb here, and while these aren’t “stocks”, they should be just fine… SGOV and USFR. As for stocks, I’m thinking consumer staples such as, PG, CHD, and CLX.
Time to start drinking bleach. Calls on CLX.
Indexes drilling...CLX mooning. Someone forgot to shut off the algos from March 2020.
Calls on Clorox (CLX), I'm about to chug a gallon of it
Anybody know why CLX is up 4 bucks today?
CLX and PG- does no one remember the run on toilet paper and Clorox wipes? Toilet paper will be the new AI.
I thought CLX until it crashed about in 2020, but probably BRK-B now.
Buying high-quality brands/businesses that are down 50% to 60%. Names that sort of jumped out to me outside of tech, are/were: NKE, CLX, TGT and DIS. Maybe they will continue to be laggards and struggle going forward. But if the benchmark is *usually* a double in \~7 years, then that seems like reasonable odds to me in some of these candidates. If it works, you get a great cost basis to own alongside your larger allocations in funds/indexes/etc.
I NEED TO DRINK SOME CLX AFTER TODAY 
I learned this the hard way today with a CLX $155c that expired today. I could’ve had $245 of profit had I sold at open and $315 if I sold at the day’s high a few minutes later, but I held thinking it would go to $160 and ended up only making $25. I know this isn’t gain or loss porn material on here, but I learned my lesson about having a conservative exit plan. TLDR: Opportunity cost is a bitch, take profits when they’re on the table especially with options.
CLX up 8% god bless my 145c
Who here swung CLX calls with me?
*Meanwhile CLX up nicely while I'm taking in the anoos from Timmy.*
Anyone playing CLX earnings or is it just all big tech in here?
Who here is playing CLX?
Everyone looking at big tech and I’m sitting over here with my CLX calls waiting for them to pop off. 
Meanwhile CLX (Clorox) has a P/E of 210, and for some bizarre reason that’s never a problem.
So we're bullish on HD and CLX? Got it
lets examine this trade ​ 100 shares of CLX at $117 = 11700 I just checked the calls $9 ITM calls 10.30 -- 8.30 the spread is very wide , yes it after hours but stil I see huge spread even ATM thewre is no real way you can het much out of the 9 ITM strikes Yes the POP is very high at 99% but THAT is pretty much irrelevant selling 108 CALL will generate about $9 + some extrinsic value assume 25c at most even if you could get it The shares will get called away at the strike price of $9 less because they are ITM so you would make a profit of $20 on an investment of 11700 per week If you bought the same 100 shares every week and make \~$20 every week Assume 50 weeks, That is 20x50= 1000 profit on 11700. less than 8.5% ROI We need to know exactly what you got as credit by trying to sell those 108 calls ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ his will give me a 99.7% chance of profit and a 40% annual return. Sounds too good to be true. Please tell me what I'm not understanding?
He also did a weird wash trade of CLX. He sold 15-50k of it then longed 100-250k. Maybe he’s just a flatten it out before picking kinda guy.
Even if CLX hits their projected EPS and revenue, that won't be enough to justify its current price. Now: if there is a miss on anything, and I mean *anything,* expect a massive drop. This market has been especially brutal on lowered expectations lately, it seems, and I can only expect the same for this overpriced giant. That much said, expect to break even, at best. You have the thou now, you just bought your loss.
We're speculating that the premium was 9.90 (or $990,) which is about what it was worth at the time, though OP never actually told us the premium he received. Not $90. He bought the shares at 117. The strike is 108. The break even price for CLX at expiration is 107.1 (-11700 + 990 + 10710 = 9.) A drop of 9 points from where he bought the shares would mean -11700 + 990 + 10800 = a net profit of $90.
Cramer pumped CLX. My short is therefore safe 🙌🏾
You'd think this sub would be interested in Clitorix. CLX four da winn!
CLX could go back to $140 pretty quick.
CLX is on a 3.5 year down trend. With your strategy you effectively claim you have found the bottom.
Bro just got fucked up CLX went up 7% at open.
Need CLX to beat earning like I beat my 🍆
Not sure how you are calculating a 40% return. $50 x 52 weeks = $2600 for the year. $2600 / $11,700 *investment cost to buy underlying* = 22.2% And all of that assumes the price of CLX doesn't change and that the same option premium is available each week throughout the year.
Several things to be aware of here: 1st. You can't expect that option premium on future contracts. It's elevated now because CLX reports earnings tomorrow after market close. 2nd. Liquidity isn't great, and it will be even worse after earnings. 3rd. As others have pointed out- the biggest element of delta here is your 100 shares. If CLX reports bad earnings or otherwise sells off you will be stuck with 100 shares well below your cost basis. I don't hate the trade, but you should understand, you won't be getting 40% returns from this.
Buying stock and selling a covered call is synthetically equivalent to selling a naked put (excl. interest, dividend) So your risk here is exactly the same as the tail risk of selling a naked put. Ask yourself why wouldn't you write a naked put of CLX at strike $108?
This is actually not a "high risk play". Much safer than just hold CLX without any options, which many people do.
I've been in this situation. Read these comments. Advice I wish I had before I lost a few hundred chasing fool's gold is spread all over. Just DCA into something you believe in, instead of that. Then you'll at least support what you love if you lose some money in the process. And hopefully, if it is something you love it will go up! Ultimately, it is your money. But, based on my current understanding, for a real value play you'd need basic metrics that look good, but with a macro market that has unfairly pushed the underlying security down. I'm still learning though. My current play is DCA-ing into things like CLX, HSY, and ALB. I may not be 100% right on my picks, but the macro markets for them seem to have hit some tough spots. Lawsuits, bad news with lead in cocoa, and headwinds. If someone knows more than me on any of those I named, I welcome the advice with an open mind and a gracious thank you.
This is a terrible cc strategy bro. A smarter way to play this would be the following. You buy CLX @ $117. You sell a OTM weekly @ $120. If CLX stays below $120 you keep your $200 premium plus the 100 shares you purchased for 11.5. Plus you get to play again next week. If CLX ends the week above $120 then you still keep your $200 premium but also an extra $300 on the shares you would be entitled to sell. It’s called the wheel strategy. You sell (weekly or monthly) OTM CC until it gets exercised. The. You turn around and sell a CSP until it gets exercised.
Possibly buy CLX if they dip below $110. Tomorrow's news will probably be the worst it can get for a while.
CLX earnings are this Friday, so you’ll have juiced up premiums for their options. I wouldn’t call it 99% chance of success.
Not a bad find tbh if you hold a bullish bias on CLX. Alternatively you could buy 2 leaps and sell calendar spreads.
He is saying he sold the 108 strike call for a credit of 9.50. But, there is in fact 0 volume on any CLX 108 strike calls today.
The CLX Nov3 108C has no open interest and no trades today.
But what you’re not accounting for and I think this is what the OP means is that he is doing this to mitigate risk. This is essentially selling a CSP. On a risk adjusted basis it’s not a bad trade. Alternatively you could just buy CLX but that I think would be more risky than this trade.
For earnings this might not be a bad play. What you are forgetting is this is a risk mitigation strategy. CLX has to drop quite a bit in order for him to be under. It can happen but it’s unlikely. Yes you can leverage more but that portends more risk. I think the OP is saying that on a risk adjusted basis this is not a bad strategy and I would tend to agree with him. Now whether you can repeat this for 52 weeks is another story. I sell ITM calls using buy write strategy on SPY in my retirement account and I generally beat the index by a few percentage points every year. (I’m up 12.3% this year vs 10% for SPY) I’m totally fine with beating the index by a few percentage points yearly. The issue isn’t so much with the strategy as it is with stock picking. I’d recommend the OP use SPY instead.
I can absolutely guarantee that if you continually sell the 85 delta covered call in CLX you will NOT make 40% annual return. When IV plummets next week after earnings, you will see the error of your thinking. It won't take a year before you figure it out.
No he didn't. He says he did this today, and CLX doesn't have daily expirations.
If you make $50 a week, that comes out to about $2,400 annually, give or take. 100 shares of CLX costs $17,000 How are you calculating that $2,400 is 40 percent of $17,000?
Say CLX drops to 107. You started with $11,700. Now you have $950 cash and shares worth $10,700, a total value of $11,650. No 40% annual return.
We have no idea where you're copying and pasting this from, but this simply assumes that every week you will be able to buy 100 shares of CLX at 117, sell a 108 strike call at 9.5, get assigned, and rinse and repeat, for 1 year. What do you think the chances are of that actually happening?
CLX earnings are tomorrow after closing. Earnings can be volatile events, so your "chance of profit" is unlikely 99.7%. That "chance of profit" is likely the delta, which people/brokers use as napkin math to ballpark it... but it's not accurate. CLX is also in a pretty strong downtrend. No idea why, I didn't look it up. If it follows that trend (no guarantee) then it'll be about $107 on Friday. If the earnings aren't bad though, it's likely to stop dropping at $114 or $111 (likely places buyers will step in). So, if you've done research and think the earnings will be ok then this isn't a bad play. If not, you should be asking yourself why CLX has dropped from $170 to $117 in two months.
If you look at the exponential moving averages (at various time intervals) CLX is on a significant downward trend. You should be prepared to own this stock or close out for a minor profit (if that). This doesn’t seem like the type of stock to bag hold until they start reversing the trend.
1. Look at the long-term trend of CLX over the past 3 years. 2. If CLX drops, you won't be able to sell covered calls at a strike above your cost basis on the shares for any significant premium. If you want to collect any premium, you'd then have to sell at a strike below your cost basis on the shares, and then if you got assigned, you'd be selling the shares at loss.
Estimated returns As at 31st Oct 2023 (CLX $116.66) Entry credit: $950.00 net credit see details Maximum risk: $10,750.00 (at CLX$0.00) Maximum return: $50.00 (at CLX$108.00) Max return on risk: 0.47% (42.4% ann.) Breakevens at expiry: $107.50 Probability of profit: 99.7%
Edit: I recieved $950 credit for selling the covered call that expires Nov 3rd. That's approx a 40% annual return! I can already see the question: "What if CLX drops below $108?" Great! I'm now holding a large company that pays a 4.11% dividend that's been around for over 100 years AND I can sell more covered calls for income.
You sold an in the money covered call. You do understand, that you will have to sell your shares of CLX at 108 dollars. But you personally bought the shares at 117. If you do the basic math here, you lost 9 dollars there. I feel like you are not considering that in your calculation of annual return.
Right, if CLX doesn't move at all by expiration, he gets assigned and makes a net $90. I'm talking about if it drops below 108. Then he keeps the $990, but doesn't seem to be taking into account the unrealized loss on the shares.
Beginners ask this kind of question all the time. You don't give the expiration date of the call nor the credit you received for it, but assuming it's the 11/10 108c, I'll assume you got about 9.90. So what if CLX drops below \~107.1? What if it goes down to below 100 and stays there for years? Great, you got $990 for selling a call, but you paid $11,700 for 100 shares of stock that are now worth less than $10k for years.
CLX on 11/1 should be interesting. They were one of the hacking victims a while back and they didn't pay up and evidently it did some major damage to their systems. Stock punished pretty badly already so could be primed for a comeback. Then again might be more pain in store depending on 24 guidance
>People keep giving the advice to hold on to the long-term outlook and the market will eventually go back up. But seriously, how likely is this? If you had the same odds at the casino you would be as rich as you wanted to be because you would win virtually every single time. It’s not just likely it is given. Why? Because people aren’t just going to stop buying iPhones (AAPL), cheesburgers (MCD), stuff being marketed to them (GOOG), cars (TSLA), vacations (airlines, hotels, gas, and food), food (CAG), cleaning products (CLX), bottled water (KO), etc etc etc. Do you plan to stop buying stuff? I don’t, I like to have a roof and some food and a car to take me places and gas for the car… Now, if we have a nuclear war well that does change things but in that case money will be worthless anyhow and most land will be radioactive so you best have some bullets. >Arent there periods throughout history where thw market has remained stagnant for as long as nearly a decade? I did some analysis, a lot of analysis on this. Compiled data for the three major indices back as far as I could go, for the Dow, prior to 1920. There has been only one time in history when the Dow was depressed for more than 10 years and you had to be the unluckiest person. You had to buy the Dow at the very top the day before the great depression began. There were some periods of 5-10 years also but only 1 or 2. I don’t have my data handy right now. The super vast majority of corrections lasted no more than 0-9 months. I used a more liberal definition of correction, that being anything that resulted in a 5% drop from the prior all time high. >And is it possible for the stock market to never ever recoup and go back up ever again?? Anything is possible. Nuclear war. Little green Martians. UFOs. Intelligent redditors. But really, how likely is any of that? So I suggest you think about your life and what it would take for you to shut down and never buy anything ever again. Then ask yourself that question again.
I'm eyeing puts on CLX for earnings next week. They took a big hit the other week but people have short memories and I think it will go down more
They definitely have a huge Moat thanks to their monopoly on chip manufacturing machines. I've looked at buying them myself, they are just so expensive. I'm holding off to see if the tech bubble busts and how that will affect them. While I do that I am working on other value plays as I see them...MMM, CLX, HSY, and KO. I do believe they are a solid company though. All of my thoughts are primarily opinions though, so I don't bring a lot of numbers to the conversation for guidance. Sorry.
> *Again, wrong. It's S&P 500 options not the balance sheet of the companies in S&P 500.* **Options are Contracts that Allow you have Exposure to a Different Asset Classes. This is how Derivatives Works, dude ;D** **You have Options for Everything, Stocks, ETFs, and of course, you also have it for the Futures Market (*****Equity Market Indices: ES, NQ, etc*****).** **For Example:** You have Option Contracts ([CLX3](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html)) for OIL Futures (CL1), but the Volatility of Oil Price dont depends on this Options, depends on the Demand & Supply Curve of the Underlying Asset. And this Demand & Supply of the Underlying Assets can create More Expectations or Less Expectations on the Price of the Underlying Asset, and this "Dynamic" Define the the ***Curve of Futures Market*** **(*****Contango & Backwardation*****)** wich also determines the Premiums in Options Market.
CLX below 120...how bad will it get......
True. But Clorox (CLX) has a multiple of 103, and has been high for a ridiculously long time.
sold all my boomer CLX last night at 129.50. Bought back just over half today at 120. If it dips lower over the next few weeks I'll buy back the other half plus a little more to increase my dividend income
CLX is eye bleach.....what was the ransom.....
Some great opps out there... ENB... yielding 8.2%. MCK, CLX... safe stuff that'll pad the port for years to come.
Easy 5k gain with $CLX 0dtes. WSB too dumb and poor for terminal
yes, several. i call it my core holdings. they pay dividends. i take the money not lost from the shorts and add it to the core. pick 10 to 25 stocks. every so often if it's at 1 year or more and it's made 10% gain or better sell it, start another core.keep or invest the difference. ABBV is one of my favorites to do this with. I bought 100 shares at 113, sold at 183 2 years later, earlier this year. recently it dropped below 130, it's been more than 32 days, so i picked up 100 shares. this after selling PEP after holding it for 3 years. not all of them are up, but what they are down they make up in dividends, plus if they are down, buy more as long as the company isn't sinking. CLX is another one i play with and its down now. but hay, i'm not a professional at this. i took a 180k inheritance and turned it into 250+- depeding on the day, in 3 years. I only recently started short selling and its not all that. got to be careful with taxes and wash sales. professionals are ginna beat me up now...lol..
Here we go again, The magnificent 7 literally shit money, and many (GOOG, MSFT, AAPL, META) literally sell at less than half of a premium to a company that makes bleach (CLX). Not saying we don’t have overvalued companies in tech, but the nasdaq 100 isnt where you’ll find them. If your looking for the most profitable companies in the world the top end of the nasdaq is where you’ll find them.
I looked at the link provided and the 14K bike has Roval CLX Rapide carbon rims.. those are like 4-5K alone! I recently bought the Roval C38 carbon rims (a lower tier version of the CLX) and they were still $1000 cad for the pair, but man do they make a difference over stock rims. As far as I know, bike prices are still on a post covid high, it’s just that dealers are more willing to negotiate pricing since their inventories have built up so much in the past year. Shimano went from almost being out of parts in 2021 to having to beg people to shell out money for new 12 speed productsz
CLX mooning off of all the cleaning supplies used to remove bear remains off the streets
Oddly, my earnings winner of the day is freaking CLX