HY

LarryStink

I use both the ICE BofA HY option adjusted spread which can be found on trading view or fred website. You can also proxy it on tradingview with HYG+JNK/TLT

Visua1Mod

>❯ Does pumping shorted stocks means liquidity levels are at the beginning stages of a rally or at the end of a rally. > >Short-covering surges show up at both ends, so the squeeze itself doesn't date the rally — what's around it does. > >Why it's ambiguous > >A squeeze is not liquidity entering the market. It's forced demand against a shrinking float: reflexive, self-extinguishing, and gone permanently once the shorts are out. So "heavily shorted names are ripping" tells you about velocity, not about the depth of the bid underneath. It's a coincident indicator of positioning stress, not a measure of liquidity. > >Beginning-of-rally version > >Off a washed-out low, short covering is the first buyer — before any fundamental buyer will step in. It follows capitulation: forced selling, vol spike, credit stress peaking. Low-quality/high-beta leads because it fell the most and is the most liquidity-sensitive. The confirmation is what happens next: the move broadens into cyclicals and credit-sensitives, HY spreads narrow alongside it, earnings revisions stop falling, and quality participates within a few weeks. Real money follows the squeeze. > >End-of-rally version > >Late in an advance, the same tape means the opposite. Breadth is narrowing, the only thing working is unprofitable/heavily-shorted/meme-adjacent, quality lags, credit stops confirming, and retail call volume is elevated. Here the squeeze is the last marginal buyer, not the first — liquidity being redistributed among existing holders rather than added. Nothing follows through after the covering exhausts. > >Tells that separate them > >\- Credit, not equities. HY/IG spreads are the liquidity read. Confirming → early. Diverging while junk equity rips → late. >\- Fuel gauge. Rising short interest into the move = more fuel. High-and-falling SI with collapsing borrow fees and days-to-cover = fuel spent; that bid can't repeat. >\- Sequencing. Squeeze after capitulation and rising volatility = bottom. Squeeze after extended calm, record leverage/margin, and a long uptrend = distribution. >\- Follow-through window. Does the index make a new high 4–8 weeks after the covering, and does leadership rotate to quality/cyclicals? Squeeze-only moves round-trip. >\- Quality spread. Junk outperforming with improving revisions = early. Junk outperforming on nothing = late. > >Short answer: heavily-shorted stocks leading is most often a late-stage / speculative-phase marker within an existing uptrend, and an early marker only when it comes immediately out of forced liquidation. Judge it by credit spreads and breadth follow-through, not by the squeeze's magnitude. > >This is market mechanics, not a recommendation — and short-interest signals are among the least reliable standalone indicators, so they're best used as confirmation rather than as a trigger. > >✻ Worked for 34s

ElZane87

I checked their HY1 balance sheet. 6.487bn USD marketable securities, which coincidentially is exactly the number I assumed. Again, most investing outflow was CAPEX, and that will remain so. Most cash inflow was due to financing activities, and that will have to remain so as well, otherwise CAPEX will not be able to keep pace. Now ofc a distinction can be made between initial CAPEX and maintenance CAPEX, but due to the pioneer situation of SpaceX and the current focus on AI (which dominates CAPEX, as explained before), we can confidently assume that CAPEX will remain high. Which leads us back to our initial thesis: it is not a sustainable cash flow statement unless further equity finance activities will be done in the future. Which is probable, given the above.

ElZane87

Well, I do admit that operating cashflows are positive. You are correct there. However, you assume, I underline, assume that the cash outflow is mainly due to IPO cash-in parked in AFS securities. That is speculative and not supported by the cashflow statement, given the pre-IPO investing activities already being relatively high. While current HY1 2026 investing activities were sparked by the IPO inflow, we have no idea knowing the proportion it would take without the IPO, nor can we assume a future development from that. What we can, however, say without a doubt is that the overwhelming amount of cash inflow is purely due to finance activities and not due to operating activities. And that was your initial point, after all.

BlackFlames01

Tom McClellan: "The raw A-D Line for HY corporate bonds looks pretty bad right now. ~ When it dries up, they are the canaries in the coal mine, keeling over from bad gases before the coal miners." Source: https://x.com/i/status/2082103873410674812

Zealousideal_Book_40

For anyone buying the SKHY, take a look at Korean(000660) and European ticker(HY9H) they literally 30% cheaper for shares of the same company

infinitum_nimis

SK(y) HY has an ironic name for being ground low

Fun_Corner_2954

SKY HY https://preview.redd.it/9molmxx30aeh1.jpeg?width=540&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=924af46f434dc6c34c32c48f6b95a63322c9f95f

Zealousideal_Book_40

Wtf sudden volume spike in HY9H vs SKHY no volume increase who tries to fuck me over

Zealousideal_Book_40

HY9H has follows Korea very closely with a very small premium usually. This trade is not trying to gain on price movement but on the premium compression

Zealousideal_Book_40

Honestly not sure, but it was surprisingly not very taxing to my margin requirements on IBKR. I have 12 HY9H and -100 SKHY, and almost no impact on my margin requirements

SomewhereOk5613

You think HY9H will go towards what price I’m thinking of buying

Zealousideal_Book_40

Doing almost the same thing, however I am long on HY9H, because it overlaps Nasdaq trading hours better

Commercial_Ad707

So we going SKy HY to $1,500?

Yonsten

Not interchangeable. It *could* earn money, but it is not a guaranteed thing. And any time there is a miscalculation of risk, is when you bare the highest chance of large losses. Like today, HY9Y gained ~10% while SKHY gained ~25% So shorting HY9Y to buy SKHY would have returned a profit, but vice versa would have hurt big time. They will move in the same direction, but likely with vastly different beta values.

Vlisa

/u/sharkaw SK trades on Frankfurt https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HY9H.F/

Space_Miner6

its 75% MU Samsung SY HY (25%\~ each) but its tracks neither one of them its only red

l153rty

There are risks attached to it: \* HY9H and SKHYV may not be freely interchangeable \* The ADR premium can grow substantially \* Short borrow can be recalled \* Borrow fees may explode \* Margin and liquidation risk \* Asynchronous trading hours \* HY9H liquidity and price reliability So it's not free money per se.

Consistent_Panda5891

HY9H is available for buy now at 1300€.... 1.14eur/USD*130=148.2. Where do you get that number from lol, only rug is unique outcome. Best one is flat

Good_Roll

If you want to call inference serving improvements scientific research that's fine, we dont need to get bogged down in a debate over semantics. Some of what theyve done can be ported to SOTA American models but a lot of it can't. The Americans have been doing a bit of engineering work of their own but just not to the extent of the chinese labs since their solutions are designed from the ground up to be maximally efficient. Which is good engineering and unsurprising since in my opinion Chinese engineers are some of the best in the world. To be honest I am rooting for the chinese here, I run GLM 5.2 on my own inference server, but there's still a massive gap in usability between their models, the last generation of American models, and current SOTA. The value add at each step continues to increase, so we have a long way to go before commoditization, unless you just mean "cheaper options are still usable". Which is true, GLM 5.2, DSV4F, and HY3 are entirely usable. But they cant do anywhere near as much autonomous work as a Fable or 5.6 Sol. The former is a good axe while the latter are chainsaws. Calling Fable a chainsaw here might even be too much of an understatement, it's more like a crane mounted chainsaw. I sure hope the Chinese do manage to create their own models of equivalent utility, I would switch to it in a heartbeat. But I dont see any signs of that happening anytime soon.

Space_Miner6

People got tired for waited for SK HY so theyre just buying anything Memory related

mmal55

Best place to track SK HY live updates? Other than this regarded forum?

-mini-kuma

EU SKHynix HY9H and KIOXIA KI5 trading delayed/halted, SKHY US going to moon...

Commercial_Ad707

Is everyone dumping to go SKy HY? Anyways, should be a ceasefire soon, no?

TipEmpty8429

I mean even SKY HY is such a meme nickname for it. It’s gonna pump?

Commercial_Ad707

We going SKy HY 🚀

Verghaust

HY9H GDR, Europe

captain_ahabb

Well that's what the HY is for. Retired people usually have a lot of capital and low expenses, 2 years might not be that much of their overall net worth.

Space_Miner6

Tomorrow SK HY will pump

Commercial_Ad707

We going SKy HY

LuvSicPt5

Where it's not? In the EU exchange it has a clear positive trend [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HY9H.F/](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HY9H.F/)

-mini-kuma

EU+UK poors have done our part and increased HY9H SK Hynix 14% on Friday on our exchanges; over to you Korea and USA - don't disappoint us!

ultimulti

And Europe also (HY9H)

Brilliant_Builder697

Yes, agree. My positions here are really small, just seeing if this leads anywhere. And agree on volume too, it doesnt confirm. Other thing is the HY vs IG credit. Usually, these bets work well when junk credit is also outperforming. But again it is not confirming either

Tonydjole

ticker for euro gdr is HY9H, market hours are 08:00 - 22:00 CET

Kortesch

So just buy HY9H i guess? almost 1600 per share is a lot tho.

-mini-kuma

US citizens cannot buy EU listings of SK Hynix? HY9H ticker (available on UK ISA)

iTedsta

Or they like only having 1 or 2 sophisticated lenders instead of an endless pool of bondholders/CLOs who are impossible to negotiate with. Illiquidity premium is \~150-175bps, and since there’s so much money pouring into that risk-profile (HY/LL/PC) even that is getting squeezed; definitely an issuer’s market for debt in terms of pricing (let alone covenants, god rest their souls).

Empty_Cup9373

HY OAS is often used as a macro risk sentiment indicator. it’s more useful for spotting risk-on vs risk-off regimes than for timing equity markets. Spreads can stay tight or wide for long periods before equities react. I’d see it more as a confirmation tool for liquidity/credit conditions rather than a standalone bull/bear signal.

LazyDazyFazy

Solid choices. Since you have investments in semiconductors sector and already own MU, add in a few shares for SK Hynix. The ticker is HY9H. They also make HBM memory but have triple MU's market share (60% vs 20%).

Excellent-Bag135

Maybe he's talking about HY9H.F ticker.

Evander85

Yeah I mean you could park your money into a HY savings account or bonds and make 4-5%/year… OR you could just buy anything that touches AI and make 10% A DAY

Longjumping-Fact-582

CRE; commercial real estate, LTV; loan to value DSCR; debt service coverage ratio Ll; Leveraged loans HY bonds; high yield bonds FED; federal reserve Let me know if you need explanations of terms, I would be happy to go into more detail on what any of these terms actually are, hope this helps 👍🏻

Hatxl

Don't bother. If you really think it's a good idea, buy HY9H.F. Yes, it's not US listed, though SK Hynix wants to this year. But, you get the smooth operator into the trifecta of three clowns who have the trust, capacity,yield and quality to dominate

AGigatonicxs

How is HY9H down 7 and in korea its green

Hatxl

Get HY9H, but long only

SheriffBartholomew

That's an ETF. If you want to invest in Hynix directly it's either the Korean exchange for the real stock, or something like HY9H.F GDR on the European exchange.

Tonydjole

not difficult for europoors (like myself), tickert is: HY9H, listed on gettex (Berlin stock exchange), only a GDR, but hopefully proper cross/dual listing soon <3

Pipeb0y

Direct lending is still smaller than HY/levered lending space and vast majority of headlines is focused on garbage loans made during vintages. I think if anything pops it’s not going to be isolated to private credit but will also likely take down public small caps, private equity, etc.

Xollector

I’m not sure where you are seeing the growing … Their 2022,2023, 2024, 2025 FY revenue were 63.1B, 54.1B, 53.1B, 52.9B. Their 2026 HY is expected at 27.6B… looks like pretty much flatline compared to any other hardware companies

Financebro30150

This is the right framing. The credit market is basically agreeing with you — IG spreads have stayed tight and HY hasn't blown out despite the macro noise, which tells you institutional money isn't pricing a recession probability high enough to de-risk aggressively. The historical pattern with oil shocks is that the first derivative matters more than the level. A spike from $70 to $90 in 6 weeks is disruptive; $90 sustained for 18 months starts showing up in transportation costs, then input costs, then consumer behavior, then guidance cuts. We're probably in the early innings of that transmission chain if oil stays elevated. Where this thesis breaks down is if Q2 guidance starts showing explicit margin compression from energy inputs. Right now Q1 earnings beats are still absorbing the narrative. But if companies start pre-announcing misses tied to energy costs, the market's "show me" stance will flip quickly. Worth watching industrials and discretionary more than energy itself as the leading indicator of that inflection.

Designer_Respect4285

Ticker HY9H

Master_External9526

the tell is TIPS breakevens staying sticky while HY spreads compress. equities hear "credit risk is fine" and ignore inflation pricing. Q2 earnings will settle which side was right

Academic_Ad3607

You're asking the right question, and the answer is probably yes — the shock is already happening, the question is duration and severity. This Hormuz "opening" is the 8th optimistic diplomatic signal since the conflict began. The prior 7 reversed within 24-72 hours. The April 9 ceasefire specifically produced an oil crash followed by a $16+ round-trip when talks collapsed. The market keeps pricing resolution while the physical reality hasn't changed — Rystad estimates $58B in Gulf energy infrastructure damage that takes years to rebuild, Iran halted all petrochemical exports indefinitely, and the IEA's own timeline on EU jet fuel is \~6 weeks from depletion. Meanwhile, 40% of global nitrogen fertilizer trade transits Hormuz. India urea hit $1,000/ton (doubled). Cattle futures are at record highs (+25% YoY, herd reduction takes 2-3 years to reverse). Combined with doubled fertilizer costs, Odessa grain export threats, and 300% freight rate increases, you've got at least three simultaneous upward pressures on the food component of H2 2026 CPI — and that's a channel that operates on agricultural cycle timelines where planting decisions now affect retail prices 3-6 months later. credit side is equally revealing. HY bond fund outflows hit $14B while IG spreads sit at 1990s lows — a divergence now in its 5th consecutive day of widening. HYG options put/call ratio climbed to 4.82 (from 3.89 pre-blockade). JPMorgan and Barclays just launched CDS on private credit funds (Apollo, Ares, Blackstone) — the first instruments to directly short the $1.7T private credit market. That's the kind of infrastructure that gets built when institutional credit investors see a stress event in the 4-8 week window. And the Beazley $1B marine war insurance facility launched on the \*same day\* Iran declared Hormuz open — Lloyd's underwriters with real capital at risk are building infrastructure for prolonged conflict while equity markets celebrate peace. data shows $86B in hedge fund equity buying, creating the largest positioning overhang since the conflict began. If talks fail within 10 days, that unwind creates forced selling that amplifies any deterioration well beyond normal equity beta. The short version: the market has priced near-certainty of resolution while structural damage persists regardless of diplomatic outcomes. **The shock is already embedded in the real economy; the only question is whether financial markets catch up gradually or all at once.**

Independent_Name_601

Think of your current portfolio (whether it be $10 or $100,000 or more) as wage income when scaling in after selling out. 1) define a scale in period (6-12 months). 2) once investing period is defined I take $100 per $1,000 and throw it into a bond fund or HY Money Market fund right away. 3) then I take the remaining $900 per $1000 and set up a liquidity buffer (usually 10%) and invest the remaining $810 per $1,000 each period. Example: If I have $26,000 and I want to scale in over 12 months (bi-weekly) that’s $1,000 every two weeks. I immediately take $2,600 and throw into a HY Fund. The remaining $23,400 then is broken up into $900 increments where I allocate $90 for quick liquidity and invest the remaining $810. I pick same day same time. On any corrections (10% or more) I will take 50% of my built up liquidity and buy immediately. I will then readjust my bi weekly contributions to recoup that flash buy. So your immediate liquidity at the end of 12 months should be $2,340 and you have $2,600 in the HY Fund. Plus all the accrued interest. Once you get all the $23,400 invested you can then invest the remaining $2,340 or maintain a liquidity buffer in the event of a correction. If the market falls 20% or more I’d deploy the full $2,340. On a mega drop I’d take 50% or HY savings and deploy that. This will leave you with a portfolio that is 95% invested (scaled in) with a 5% buffer. I’d a 50% drop never occurs don’t touch the HY Savings this is your market collapse money. That’s how I do it.

Some-Platform1968

This is more about matching your investments to the time horizon. Equity and short investment periods are not a good match. That’s why target retirement date funds remove much of the equity as your near retirement…not enough time to make up big losses. Put in the stock market what you’d be comfortable losing 30% on (ala 2008 GFC). The rest can go in HY savings account or something like that

Master_External9526

credit and rates don't agree with this. HY spreads ripped tighter but TIPS breakevens stayed sticky. equity reads 'less bad than worst case', rates are still pricing inflation. splits like that don't resolve clean. not chasing 7000.

peter_lynch_jr

I'll do a portfolio update in August when the FY26 report is due. I'm currently -67% (-$150k aud) in the red if you need to know. Why is Adore Beauty undervalued at current market cap of $32 million: Trading close to asset liquidation value of approximately $25 million. Priced like a dying company. Trading at Price/Sales ratio of 0.16 - even a mediocre retailer with no growth potential would trade above 0.50 PS ratio. Priced like a dying company. Considering 85% of beauty products are still sold in physical stores, Adore likely has a significant revenue growth runway. Management already rejected a buyout offer of $1.30 per share for undervaluing the company and that was before the store rollout. Why is it trading so low? 70% of shares are held by founders/management and institutional investors meaning these shares are essentially illiquid. The remaining 30% free float was spooked by a slight decrease in gross margins and costs of opening physical stores. A small free float can drastically move share price with sudden trading volume. Pretty much a panic sell. Oldest store wasn't even 10 months old at the time of the HY26 report so the 18 stores the company now operates haven't had a chance to contribute a full years worth of revenue. The play here is will the physical stores results in margin expansion, contribute significantly to revenue and reduce marketing and customer acquisition costs. In HY26, marketing spend was down 5% and customer acquisition costs down 50%. I was happy with a $1 per share cost basis. $0.34 per share is an absolute bargain. I'm confident the company (as is) will return to a $100m market cap and the continued store rollout will push the company to above $200m market over the next 2-5 years.

Puzzled-Intern-7897

My goal was to have a falsifiable stat that I can test my thesis with. If I am wrong on supply chains, I will definitely be able to tell through clothing brands. That is the information I am interested in. If they reduce forward guidance significantly I will go heavily into commodities and utilities as they are most inflation proof. Overall I tried to argue for a contrarian thesis based on freely available data within a short time span, kind of to test my strength of finding arguments. The trade I am still interested in, and I do use HY spreads and CCC spreads to get a grasp on what institutional investors believe the risk to be at the moment. My problem really is that I disagree with their optimism regarding the ceasefire.

UnclePsilocybe

HY OAS went down and breadth is up. What in mavr9 is deteriorating? Honestly question

Crips_Ahoy177

I’m gonna lay low for a while, withdraw everything, pay off all debt, put the rest in a HY savings account. Walking out of the casino while I’m up

shiroandae

Based on what assumptions? They will take over all telecoms in the world in the next calendar year (it’s always the next one with him innit), and all countries in the world will start extensive space programs and only use SpaceX, and also all data centers will be closed down and converted to space ones by 2HY 2027?

Jeff__Skilling

including private HY debt in 401k portfolios = tyranny?

Complex-Note-5274

friendly reminder HY spreads jumped 21 bps last friday

Spaceisveryhard

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UWM/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMhMPICjFylVjPN6nmho5-5BZpZu7Ml_A3tZjbM5TH-0WkMBTh-X2Wijy8EnEJoae6kPfOFsctYM7S32Jfs7zCr7G08JVYNzVDbeyXlgszhKqLdNGIkDw6fusVUm3-HY4yKm_YmA2q9NZJREtvW3BFIt57NqBGRJV6EOb7EnlMes

writer951

HY dividends could be good, but don't forget about the tax implications over 3 years. Feels like you'd need pretty consistent returns to beat out the stability of precious metals, esp. if the market dips. Just my 2 cents!

Nyczboy22

So many ill informed people surrounding private credit and evergreen funds. Default rates in middle market private credit, historically have been lower than BSL or HY. The asset class benefits from smaller club (lenders) that can work strategically with the portfolio company/sponsor should the business underperform. Gates and redemption limits are explicitly detailed in offering docs and investors sign up knowing very well they are buying into funds primarily invested in illiquid assets. I’m long BX, OWL, and ARCC. Those mgmt fees aren’t going away and the underlying collateral quality seems to still be sound. AI and software disruption is real - but definitely a bit overblown as it relates to many of the businesses these PC managers lended to.

Legitimate-Relief128

I'd throw credit spreads on this list too. HY OAS from FRED is free and when IG spreads start widening before equities sell off it's been one of the best leading indicators I've tracked. Equities are always the last to know.

Readonly00

What's the ticker? I only see HY9H on Gettex in Euros

Fenc58531

That is factually false. PSKY was a BBB- company before, which is IG, and now has been downgraded to BB+ which is HY/Junk.

champagnepopi

That's not the issue. Liquidity of $SMSN is as bad as $HY9H

Immobile_Threat

9 months worth of living expenses as emergency fund in HY savings. Everything else goes into index funds

AlphaEcho84

Corporate credit is the one that keeps me up. Investment grade spreads are near historic tights and everyone treats IG bonds like they're basically risk free. But a lot of these companies levered up when rates were near zero and now they're rolling debt at much higher coupons. The "safe" BBB bucket is enormous compared to what it was pre-08, and one notch below that is junk. A recession that forces a wave of downgrades could get ugly fast because the HY market isn't deep enough to absorb all of it. The fallen angel risk is real and nobody prices it in during good times. Private credit is another one. It's been the darling of institutional allocators for a few years now but the marks are basically whatever the manager says they are. There's no daily price discovery, so volatility looks artificially low which makes it look safe on paper. When defaults actually pick up you'll see the real risk, but by then the money is locked up.

HlpM3Plz

Low-key the S Korean chip makers who supply Nvidia with HBM will run cuz of this. EWY, FLKR, KORU for ETFs with exposure to the sector. HY9H on the Frankfurt Exchange if you're willing to jump through hoops to buy 100% SK Hynix, which has a major catalyst coming once it gets an ADR listed on US Exchanges.

HlpM3Plz

FLKR is similar to EWY and has much lower management fees. You can buy SK Hynix on the Frankfurt Exchange (HY9H).

Inevitable-Sugar-182

Try looking for HY9H ticker inside the ISA. It's SK Hynix which you can buy on the Frankfurt exchange. I'm avoiding this stock despite its dominance and have bought Micron instead.

Complex-Note-5274

Looking at SOFR and HY spreads. Someone tell me how deep should my puts be

Mnshine_1

Miserable profit when every WDC, MU, STX, SMSN, HY9X doing 100% beat, negative p/e, ad profit margin that is impacted by hardware costs

Educational_Pop6138

Not in the US but you can still get it via HY9H (its GDR) on the Frankfurt exchange. I use IBKR.

EventSevere2034

Tesla is trades north of 355x yet isn't even competitive against Chinese EVs that cost half as much. Musk pawning another 300x company onto hot potato buyinsg is his business model. The market doesn't have a gag reflex right now. But I think the OP is wrong about why it would collapse. Institutional investors developing standards isn't a catalyst, it's a fairy tale. What actually breaks these things is a liquidity event. In 2008, people forgot oil hit $147/barrel before Lehman went down. Energy costs brake the weakest leg, which was housing then. Today oil is about $62, the fed rate at 3.64% and HY spreads are sitting at 3 bps. The weakest leg today isn't housing, it's the $1.3T in corporate debt imo. Google is selling 100 year debt, i mean lets go. The SpaceX IPO isn't the bomb, it's the clock.

PandakatFinance

You can buy it through GDR. It’s listed on Germany, ticker HY9H

YouTube_WohltatTV

I prefer those atm due to NAND and SSD stortage and the imho upcoming HDD shortage: SK Hynix (HY9H @ Frankfurt), Micron (MU), Samsung (SMSN @ London), SanDisk (SNDK), AMD, Intel (INTC), Kioxia (KI5 @ Frankfurt, 285A @ Tokio), NVIDIA (not kidding). Maybe adding some more WDC and Seagate (STX). Just check DRAM (e.g. 96GB DDR5 6000 mhz), SSD prices (e.g. 16, 30, 32 TB) and HDD prices at your local price comparison website. DDR5 SD-RAM is more or less sold out or only available for 4x the price of November 2025.

yatruthordare

If there is a liquidity issue - if HY OAS widens and SOFR rises then it’s a systemic stress event similar to 2008. Gold crashed.

Educational_Pop6138

HY9H. GDR for Hynix available in the Frankfurt exchange. Accessible from IBKR.

Johnny_Suede

[Always buy under arrow](https://youtu.be/8wAYb-PnRGY?si=zA5eid1h7fEvf3HY)

derfahrer924

I plan to retire within a year, and this is how I am setting things up. 5 yrs worth in SGOV + a bond ladder. Intermediate term is a mix of corp and HY bond ladder (using iShares fixed duration ETF). The rest is in a mix of equity ETFs and a handful of individual stocks I don't want to be in a position of having to sell stocks during a downturn in order to withdraw living expenses. I've seen that happen to a number of people during both the dot-com crash and the GFC.

Krls78

SK Hynix (000660.KS) Korean Won, (HY9H) EUR

dodgyboygomez

>When's the last time they made something major? I'm with OP. Not for the hardware though. Atari's revenue increased from ~€10m in 2023 to expected ~€60m this year, mainly through smart acquisitions of smaller studios who have an edge in their niche. They just announced to acquire 100% of the distressed Swedish publisher Thunderful, who are about to release an absolute masterpiece in March 2026. Just check out the [trailer for REPLACED](https://youtu.be/C3bbZ_I8Ehg?si=pVSnKGpGeZVgCIj0), which has been in development for almost 10 years. The game sits at around 0.74m wishlists on Steam (#62) and I think there will be more with similar potential. Atari is no longer what most people think it is. It looks like they can turnaround to positive current operating income this year for the first time since 5 years, according to the outlook in their [HY report](https://www.actusnews.com/fr/atari/cp/2025/12/23/atari-half-year-2025-2026-results) released last week. It should be considered through, that the hypergrowth is financed by massive loans from their main shareholder, a gamer from Minnesota, who already owns around 42% of the shares with the option to increase to something around 57%. Most retail investors are waiting for this dilution (happening latest July 2026) and institutions seem to stay away from the stock for that reason. It is a risky turnaround/growth play with some value in the name and IP (>400 titles) and I like it because I'm into video games. They do a lot more fun stuff ([Bubsy 4D](https://youtu.be/H4bq6P8e5gk?si=yh9mtrmg-I1KzV4X) created some buzz at Gamescom this year) and personally I can't see many opportunities quite like it in this market.

dieselbp67

I would put 25k into spx etf, 10k into a us smid vehicle, 5k into eafe, 5k into short duration HY, 5k into bank loan ETF

Gorgenapper

Just watched some channel where a British chef spent 5 hours to cook up a pub burger that [looked nothing like a burger](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7pIWhvXi_HY), just piled up 15" high like a giant 🍆 it looked like you were supposed to start deep throating it. Puts on the UK

meeyamee22

3x net leverage is exceptionally manageable for a defensive company with Netflix’s cash flow. They will likely retain single-A credit ratings that are 4 notches above HY territory. The debt is going to be quite cheap to the company - meaning it won’t offer lenders a ton of spread. Google’s most recent 30 year bond is only 5.45% at approximately 75bps of spread. Netflix will likely only offer around 90-95bps, if that’s any indication of how strong of a credit profile they have.

FewNegotiation1101

Agreed but markets can stay irrational longer than a trader can stay solvent. There is the option to not play but odds can shift against speculation depending on the money markets i.e. gov bond yields and credit spreads within IG and HY.

Sea-Being56

I work in private credit and used to work in high yield. No way 100% cov lite HY stronger (fundamentally) than UMM vanilla PC. Sure, there are pockets of PC that are garbage, but most of those areas aren't mainstream.

Spedicey007

BLNE 

Hot-Fox-8797

We’re so big that the asset allocation stays pretty stable. Exception being growing asset classes growing like private credit etc. But high level stock vs bond pretty stable. I think hy bonds look good compared to stocks currently when looking at HY bonds YTW vs a lot of stocks FCF yields

Actual-Ad-7852

You’re participating in the stock market. Never stupid to pull out funds and have some dry powder when you feel it’s necessary. You’re incurring the taxable event at the end of the day, so critics of your decision can go kick rocks. With that being said, I disagree with the timing. Think we’re still relatively early in the AI super cycle. Ppl comparing this to dotcom are casuals. Valuations healthier, less aggregate leverage, clear signs of infrastructural buildout, and unprecedented institutional and consumer adoption. David Sacks said it best: you can’t be simultaneously afraid of an AI bubble and believe that it wil quickly force a labor market regime shift from efficiency gains - the two are mutually exclusive. I believe the latter, not the former. Where I would advise you against your initial strategy is your plan with the dry powder. HY/Bonds at 25? You’ve had a nice run, but I think that’s a bit conservative at your age. Also, even if we crash 30%+… name a more investable theme than AI in the intermediate/long-term. You may have some of these application software names go to zero and overstated future earning potential realized over time. But NVDA, AVGO, GOOG, META, TSM - all fundamental players of AI value chains with fairly competitive moats. Indicators of overbought conditions are a relative measure (we’ve never seen a market or theme like this). AI, in my view, is a Renaissance, not some fad that helps you write papers and book meetings. It will quite literally revolutionize societal behavior to accelerate scientific, sociocultural, and existential pursuits. Long winded way of saying: 1) I think you mistimed the top (and that’s ok) 2) Buy these same names cheaper - but perhaps start dollar cost averaging (buy fractional amounts over time) so that if we keep running 50%+ from here you’re not underexposed 3) Too early to start strategizing HY/Bonds unless you made a fucking killing since April 4) Nice job being engaged in the market. Not saying this in a condescending way either - your view is just as valid as mine. Civic participation in our public equity markets is what makes our country the best.

Living_Ad2045

I would build a portfolio of S&P ETFs, with some amount in HY savings and 10-15% held in gold

borkthegee

> Cash, losing value by the day HY savings accounts are beating inflation right now

StuartMcNight

No. I am not making up that part. Is in OP’s post. He is planning to sit in cash until April lows. If April lows are not reached he will keep on a HY account or bonds. So yes. He said he is out of the market.

shortgamegolfer

You have to be right twice. First you have to wait and see if you were right this first time, and then you have to be right a second time getting back in. Let’s say you are incredibly lucky and are right twice. Way to go, you will definitely do this again, and again you’ll need to be right twice. Odds of that are very slim. Let’s say you are right on the first move, but wrongly buy back in before it dips harder. Now you are more likely to sell the bottom, having regretfully bought back in with weak conviction. You’ll remember that you were right the first time, so let’s just get back to that! Tried to catch the falling knife at the wrong time, so it’s time to sell a little lower, no big deal, and boom, it goes back up without you. Oh shit FOMO back in and boom, that was a dead cat, now you’re back where you started and feel really dumb. Ok let’s say you’re just wrong the first time. Now you’re sitting in HY savings missing the next rally. Finally you FOMO back in at a peak. Michael Burry lost a ton of money by being way too early with his market timing.