KKR

WickedSensitiveCrew

Non-tech, financials, and international stocks. Some examples MELI, COF, and KKR/APO. I have also been buying space stocks like LUNR.

WickedSensitiveCrew

Im glad I cut my losses faster and rotated into memory, semis, data center stocks, etc. has worked out really well for me. For example could have been bag holding KKR, MEDP, KNSL, etc. Instead rotated into AUR/BE and recovered all the losses I had in those stocks.

WickedSensitiveCrew

Cutting my losses in the boring stocks and rotating into tech plays like memory, semis, NBIS, etc. has worked out really well for me. For example, I gave up on KKR and KNSL in favor of AUR, FCEL, and LUNR and I made back my losses within a month.

cryptohorn

JPMorgan Chase-led bank group reins in credit line to troubled KKR private credit fund as losses mount

wolverinexci

Is is degen to short the company that owns Canvas (the school infrastructure learnings company, probably used it if you went to school in the last 15 years) KKR is the company apparently

Dry_Try_6047

I'll give you the skinny from someone who has contributed the max to my 401k mostly my entire adult life AND got very lucky in that I started working in 2007 (now age 41), so aside from the very first contributions, have been investing into a historically unprecedented bull market. In addition, I've had mostly good employer matches, culminating with my current employer who has the best match I've had in my career (16k contribution, which is the max they offer, on the minus side it comes all at once in February of the following year).Also factor in my wife who has saved as diligently, but not as aggressively. We have about 1.75 million across all 401k/IRA accounts, mostly traditional but maybe 25% roth, over a now 19-year career. About 1.25m to my name, 500k to her name. Additionally, we plan on retiring early so need money in non-taxable accounts for ages 50 to 60, so we have about 700k in public equities, 300k in PE funds (not KKR, think multifamily syndication deals, min 200k investment for accredited investors) and maybe 250k in cash. We are now actually doing about 120k per year in 401k contributions, which includes massive backdoor roth strategy, and trying to save up cash for more of these PE MF syndication deals, as we feel we are too heavyweight in public equities. Won't mention 529s that are there also, as obviously those are meant to be spent, but these are also fully funded so we aren't paying for college in our retirement. I give this as an example because I think I am at or near the top of my age group for retirement savings ... in my experience I don't know anyone who has near this level of savings. I would be weary of anyone saying they have more, as I believe this represents the cap.

_SirShackleton_

How about this: More than 11 percent of share float short with heavy institutional holders not willing to sell. KKR holds 17 percent. Recent runup creates even more buy pressure and potential for a short squeeze.

ai-moderator

#TLDR --- **Ticker:** CRGY (Crescent Energy) **Direction:** Up **Prognosis:** Buy shares/calls and wait for Big Oil to write a fat check **Catalyst:** KKR is dressing them up for a buyout (refinancing debt, optimizing balance sheet) **Vibe:** Lookin' like a quick, bite-sized snack ready to get swallowed whole by a supermajor

NaluknengBalong_0918

!p vm analyze the option chain of KKR for me

WickedSensitiveCrew

Hopefully it works out for you. PE firms are one of those sectors people have morals on due to how they do buyouts and exits. But you are obviously in a situation you want to be contrarian. I feel you need macro such as Iran war ending. Or if they finally speak on earnings. Because OWL/KKR have been silent through all those news headlines about the withdrawals being limited.

WickedSensitiveCrew

I own shares in APO and KKR. Why do you think the narrative can shift sooner to bet on a specific time frame with options? Was it BX earnings coming out last week? Seems when you try to look it up in media they are negative and companies cant speak out since they are in a blackout period before their earnings come out.

WickedSensitiveCrew

I bought shares in APO and KKR. Feels like something that needs 1-2 quarters of earnings to change narrative. Why do you think the narrative can shift sooner to bet on a specific time frame with options?

ApexTerminal

This is a cleaner framing than the usual “AI winners vs losers” trade. The alt managers are not just generic financials here; they sit close to the financing layer behind the data-center / power / infrastructure buildout. The key is that a lot of AI capex cannot be financed only on hyperscaler balance sheets forever. Once you get into multi-year data-center construction, power procurement, structured credit, private credit, project finance and sale-leaseback style structures, firms like APO/BX/KKR/TPG become part of the plumbing. So the trade is not simply “AI panic is overdone.” It is more like: if AI spend continues but public equity investors rotate away from obvious semiconductor beta, the capital-formation layer may be under-owned relative to its role in the cycle. The risk is credit. These names will still trade badly if spreads widen or if the market starts questioning data-center collateral values. But as a second-order AI expression, the setup is more interesting than chasing the same crowded hardware names.

creemeeseason

Anyone have thoughts on buying LEAOs on some of the asset managers (OWL, KKR, etc.)?

cryptohorn

"Thoma Bravo handed the keys to Medallia over to its lenders yesterday. Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, and Antares are taking control of a company Thoma Bravo bought for $6.4 billion in 2021, wiping out roughly $5.1 billion in equity held by the firm and its co-investors" Sounds like wsb levels of losing money

Used_Bag6446

I wonder what these folks think their edge in the trading market is. There are funds with a foreign desk that specialize in studying these conflicts on top of all the data and models they utilize. I was watching an interview the other day with former general Petreus on Iran. He is now a partner at KKR, huge investment firm. Stop with the 5 paragraph essay that was ghost written by AI on why the market should be in shambles. You’re just pulling the handle of the slot machine every day and hoping to be one of the lucky ones.

Stocks_N_Bondage

- Current calls are SNDK GLW FLEX STX - Current puts are NOW SAP CRM KKR

slingingfunds

You linked an article of Jamie Dimon ‘warning’ that credit losses will be larger than anticipated. He wrote that in his shareholder letter. You realize banks like JPM compete with direct lenders like BX, KKR, OWL, Apollo, etc? You realize they’ve lost that war and would gladly win that business back if they could? You realize JPM just launched a PC fund of their own? All of this to say, Jamie Dimon is incentivized to portray PC in a negative light. I’m not saying there’s not bad actors, and I’m not saying there won’t be defaults (going from nothing to something is always a story) but this entire conversation started because you said ‘dumbass’ retail is going to save everyone from illiquidity issues. ✌️

IvoryTowerResident

>please explain what this is It is basically a loan but not in the public market. Which mean you can trade this loan. A private credit fund (Morgan stanley, JP Morgan, Blackrock, Blackstone , Blue Owl, Apollo and etc) will rise moeny to start a fund with the objectives of making loans to companies (public or private). These loans cannot be traded on the public market like other loans that have ratings on them. If you have a bloomberg terminal you can look up loans that public companies have and their prices along with their yields. Private credit funds typically return 10% or more depending on the fund. >why it's significant Most companies that need these loans are companies with strong and preditable cash flows such as software companies. With the recent SAASpocalyse, these companies are no longer worth the money they are worth. Investors also believe their ability to repay said loans are impacted which means the face value of the debt in the private credit fund need to be written down (since they riskier and investors might not get full face value). Since these are not traded on the public market, they cannot be written down because no one knows what the fair value is. Some investors are spooked and want out. Typically these funds offer 5% redemption each quarter but now as the investor confidence is shaken, more than 5% of the ppl want out but funds are not liquid so they cant just sell the debt. So they block redemption, this is viewed very negatively. Besides software companies, a lot of data center buildout are also funded by private credit. So this impact them. >and how retail can profit off it? Many of these private credit funds are traded in the public market with a illiquidity discount attached to them. So if you believe these loans will pay back full face value, it is a great time to buy them because yields are very high since these funds are discounted. They currently yield around 13% Ticker name : $OBDC (Blue Owl), $ARCC (Ares)**,** $FSK (KKR), $TCPC (Blackrock)

InvestAISavvy

This is the part of the rate cycle that doesn't get enough attention. Private credit boomed because low rates pushed everyone into alternatives hunting for yield. Now rates are staying elevated — we just got a 178K jobs print this morning on a 60K consensus, two-year yield at 3.84% — and the exits are jammed. The 5% redemption honoring is what gets me too. That's not a fund under pressure, that's a fund telling investors they fundamentally can't sell. When you see that disconnect between what investors want out and what the fund can deliver, it usually means the underlying assets can't be liquidated at anything close to marked value. OWL down 40% year-to-date is the equity market's way of saying the same thing. The bigger question is how much of this is Blue Owl specific vs. a private credit problem broadly. Apollo, Ares, Blackstone, KKR all sliding tells you it's not just one fund.

FullOf_Bad_Ideas

>Apollo, Ares, Blackstone, KKR, and BlackRock all slid in tandem. the whole market is down, but it's Blue Owl that's impacted the most. They are famous for being the easiest lenders in the sector, so it's not very surprising that they got hit hard. Where's fractional reserve lending when you need it? It would have solved most of those issues and it would make return nicer.

Sybertron

>Let’s hope investor stupidity doesn’t leak into the rest of the markets though. Well thankfully this only impacts Apollo, Ares, Blackstone, KKR, and BlackRock; and they are only worth a paltry $17.64 trillion.

Bilbo_Butthole

PE is illiquid by nature. That’s why withdrawals are being limited. Similar to banks and how the reserve ratio is 10%. People saying the Blackstone’s, KKR’s, and Blue Owl’s of the world going bankrupt are retarded

Phuffu

Nah stocks like KKR and APO are buys

Wealthy-investor

Literally Apollo and KKR are well diversified entity that are completely way more protected and crash proof with way more cash available to deploy right now than most people that don’t do research realise. It’s literally crazy to me that people still think they only give credit to slme unsolvable companies and that’s it lmfao. Nothing you said is showing with the dry powder ready to deploy of both companies. Do a CHAT GPT again and write why they will get out of that crisis.

Scary-Oven8260

Too late. APO KKR green this month tell you all that you need to know

Song-Potential

It’s ironic you mentioned KKR’s flagship BDC. just last week, Moody’s actually downgraded it to junk status (Ba1). Because their non accrual rate hit 5.5%, which is way higher than their peers. Their stock is currently trading at a 50% discount to its book value. If they were truly 'well-diversified' and safe, the market wouldn't be pricing them like a house on fire.

smahd55

None of what you said is true. Most provate credit funds are well diversified. This industry emerged because banks had to hit strict ratios making them derisk their balance sheets. Asset backed finance within these portfolios are a subclass, of which tends to outperform. See KKR’s BDC private credit fund.

Hanshautreinhart

KKR is an investment company that manages alternative asset classes like private equity. This could significantly increase their assets under management and the liquidity of these assets.

Hanshautreinhart

Time to buy KKR I guess.

callmesandycohen

I think the bigger concern is that all those petrodollars committed to Blackrock, Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, SoftBank for datacenter development just evaporated.

WickedSensitiveCrew

I been buying APO and KKR over BLK.

kjuneja

Here's a summary of the past three weeks: **The Trigger: Redemption Panic** Ares Management capped investor withdrawals from its $10.7 billion private credit fund at 5% after redemption requests surged to 11.6%. Apollo Global unveiled similar measures a day earlier. Blue Owl, Cliffwater, and others also scrambled to restrict withdrawals in recent weeks. [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/private-credit-defaults-loan-quality-debt-risk-systemic-ai-disruption.html) In early March, BlackRock restricted withdrawals on its $26 billion HPS Lending Fund, and Morgan Stanley received repurchase requests for 10.9% of shares in its North Haven Private Income fund. [Fortune](https://fortune.com/2026/03/14/private-credit-meltdown-how-wall-streets-blackstone-kkr-apollo-ares-blue-owl-investment-craze-panic/) **The Stock Wipeout** The selloff has erased over $265 billion in market cap across the sector. From their peaks, Apollo is down 41%, Blackstone 46%, Ares and KKR 48% each, while Blue Owl dropped by two-thirds. [Fortune](https://fortune.com/2026/03/14/private-credit-meltdown-how-wall-streets-blackstone-kkr-apollo-ares-blue-owl-investment-craze-panic/) **Why: AI + Defaults** Morgan Stanley warned default rates in private credit could surge to 8%, well above the historical 2-2.5% average, with pressure concentrated in software sectors vulnerable to AI disruption. Software makes up roughly 26% of direct lending exposure. [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/private-credit-defaults-loan-quality-debt-risk-systemic-ai-disruption.html) The private credit default rate hit 5.8% in early 2026, and distressed exchanges — where lenders quietly renegotiate rather than declare bankruptcy — accounted for 94% of all private credit downgrades over the past year. [FinancialContent](https://www.financialcontent.com/article/marketminute-2026-3-26-the-sputtering-flywheel-us-private-credit-faces-a-reckoning-as-distressed-exchanges-and-liquidity-gaps-explode) **The "Hidden" Problem** The crisis is defined not by high-profile bankruptcies but by a quieter trend: distressed exchanges involving payment-in-kind toggles, where interest is added to the principal rather than paid in cash, allowing struggling borrowers to delay reckoning. Rating agencies warn these rarely work long-term. [FinancialContent](https://www.financialcontent.com/article/marketminute-2026-3-26-the-sputtering-flywheel-us-private-credit-faces-a-reckoning-as-distressed-exchanges-and-liquidity-gaps-explode) **Regulatory Response** In late March, the Financial Stability Oversight Council voted to publish new guidance on nonbank financial company designations, signaling a shift toward "activities-based" oversight targeting opaque fund structures. [FinancialContent](https://www.financialcontent.com/article/marketminute-2026-3-26-the-sputtering-flywheel-us-private-credit-faces-a-reckoning-as-distressed-exchanges-and-liquidity-gaps-explode) **Is It Systemic?** Morgan Stanley analysts said an 8% default spike would be "significant but not systemic," pointing to lower leverage among private credit funds compared with 2008. [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/private-credit-defaults-loan-quality-debt-risk-systemic-ai-disruption.html) But Bank of America analysts said there was "misinformation" causing markets to overreact, and no major lender has actually collapsed yet. [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/25/business/private-credit-public-problem) The consensus: not a 2008 repeat, but a painful reset for an industry that oversold itself as a near-zero-loss asset class.

Stocks_N_Bondage

Main positions, as a group about delta neutral, but questioning my apparent cognitive dissonance on some at the moment. - Calls: AAOI • LITE • GLW - Puts: COIN •  NOW • APP • SAP • KKR • SMCI *Disclaimer: for entertainment value only, also see the book **"Throwing and Catching Falling Knifes For Dummies."**..*

groceriesN1trip

These withdrawal restrictions are built into the agreement. Most illiquid alternative funds have these 5% of NAV per quarter withdrawal restrictions. This is part of the original agreement. The point you’re actually missing, and a greater contagion, is that Moody’s just rated KKR’s underlying assets in their private credit fund as Junk.  Putting the risk of private lending onto retail investors via alt funds is a problem. Institutions should hold that risk. Private lending onto retail/ private credit is very opaque because they’re not relying on external 3rd parties to value this debt like what is done with private real estate funds.

Street-Badger

On the other hand the price action for the publicly traded private equity firms are down like 40% on the year, and a KKR fund just got rated junk.  None of the loans in these funds are marked to market so someone said these funds get to grade their own homework.  There is more to it than ‘business as usual’.

LordFaquaad

Ok. Darfur was declared a genocide by the US. Even the UN said that it was a path to genocide and it went to the ICC. [Darfur | Holocaust Encyclopedia](https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/darfur#:~:text=The%20United%20States'%20Determines%20Genocide,and%20the%20Sudanese%20government%20responsible.) Even putting that aside, do you think that banks don't take positions in Israel lol? [Some of the biggest US banks have underwritten billions of dollars in Israeli bonds! - Workers Revolutionary Party](https://wrp.org.uk/features/some-of-the-biggest-us-banks-have-underwritten-billions-of-dollars-in-israeli-bonds/) If PLTR is complicit in genocide by selling Israel weapons then so is Lockheed, Raytheon, Boeing, banks, KKR, Blackrock, etc for funding and aiding it. At that point you may as well divest completely from the stock market. Hell McDonalds was openly supporting and supply IDF soldiers food. Why palantir and not the actual financiers of the war? Or i'm guessing its because you ahve positions in banks and want to justify it

Stocks_N_Bondage

Not sure the last time my total port was net negative delta. It is now, LOL. My calls on AAOI, LITE, GLW are printing today—but if it wasn't for those photonics plays, I'd be full port puts. My spring put collection: COIN, APP, CRM, WDAY, GDDY, NOW, NTSK, KKR, DOCS Se you all at the bottom of the hill!

dqdg

AI: * Secondary discounts widening (<85%) * BDC NAVs dropping * BX / KKR / APO selling off hard * Real estate marks catching down

tlk666

So my Ai said this cuh, ong you a cuck You’re stacking a lot of real risks—but the mistake is assuming they all **resolve in the same bearish direction at the same time**. Markets rarely give you that clean outcome. Let’s build the **actual bull case**, not a strawman. --- # The Bull Case for U.S. Stocks (mid–late 2020s) ## 1) The U.S. can run higher debt than you think Yes, debt/GDP may exceed World War II levels. But here’s what matters more than the number: * The U.S. issues debt in **its own currency** * That currency is the global reserve: United States dollar * Global system still runs on dollar liquidity (trade, energy, collateral) Japan has run **250%+ debt/GDP for decades** without collapse. **Bull takeaway:** High debt ≠ bearish by itself. It often leads to: * financial repression * moderate inflation * asset inflation (stocks ↑) --- ## 2) “Everyone is fully invested” is usually a myth That Reddit take is classic late-cycle thinking—but positioning data rarely supports “no buyers left.” Reality: * Pension funds still need to allocate * Sovereign wealth funds still deploy * Retail panic → creates buyers on dips * Corporations themselves = **largest buyers via buybacks** Companies like: * Apple * Microsoft are constant **structural demand** for equities. **Bull takeaway:** There is always a marginal buyer—especially when prices drop. --- ## 3) Stagflation is possible—but not the base case You’re right: stagflation would be toxic. But here’s the pushback: * Labor market is **cooling, not collapsing** * Productivity may rise from tech adoption * Supply-side improvements (reshoring, energy) If inflation trends from \~3–4% → \~2.5–3%: → the Federal Reserve can still: * cut gradually * ease financial conditions We don’t need 0% rates again. Just **less tight policy** is bullish. --- ## 4) AI doesn’t need perfection to justify valuations You’re assuming AI = bubble unless it becomes AGI. That’s too binary. Even without AGI: * automation of **10–20% of white-collar tasks** * software margin expansion * cost reduction across industries Companies like: * Microsoft * NVIDIA don’t need sci-fi outcomes—just **incremental productivity gains**. **Bull version of your point:** Even if 80% of AI spend is inefficient… the 20% that works can justify massive value. --- ## 5) Private credit stress ≠ systemic collapse You’re right it’s stretched. But compare to 2008: * Banks are better capitalized * Risk is **more distributed** * No single asset (like subprime MBS) dominates Firms like: * Apollo Global Management * KKR may take hits—but that’s not the same as system failure. **Bull takeaway:** This is more likely a **contained credit cycle**, not a collapse. --- ## 6) The U.S. still dominates globally (this matters more than macro doom) Relative performance > absolute perfection. Compare the U.S. to: * China → property crisis, demographics * Europe → slow growth, fragmentation Where does global capital go? → still the U.S. Because: * deepest capital markets * rule of law * tech leadership * innovation pipeline **Bull takeaway:** Even if the U.S. is flawed, it’s still the **best house in a bad neighborhood**. --- ## 7) Earnings can grow even in a “meh” economy This is where most bears get caught. Stocks follow: >earnings × multiple Even if multiples compress: * cost cutting * automation * pricing power → earnings can still grow S&P 500 is dominated by high-margin firms now, not industrials. --- ## 8) Inflation can actually be bullish (to a point) Moderate inflation (2–4%): * inflates nominal GDP * boosts corporate revenues * reduces real debt burden This is literally the environment where equities often outperform bonds. --- ## 9) Buybacks + passive flows = structural tailwind This didn’t exist in 2000 or 1929 at the same scale. Drivers: * 401(k) auto-investing * index funds (constant inflows) * corporate buybacks This creates a **persistent bid under the market**. --- ## 10) Your SaaS/VC argument is half right—but incomplete Yes: * multiples compressed * bad startups will die But: * survivors become **more profitable** * competition gets wiped out * capital reallocates to winners That’s actually bullish long-term. --- # The real bull case in one sentence You don’t need a perfect economy— you just need: * moderate growth * controlled inflation * no systemic crisis …and stocks grind higher. --- # Where your thesis could be right To keep it real (not just bullish spin), your view wins if: * inflation stays >4% AND growth collapses * private credit causes forced deleveraging * AI capex fails to produce returns * policy mistake by the Federal Reserve That’s a **specific combo**, not guaranteed. --- # Final pushback (intellectual sparring) Right now your stance is: >“Too many things are broken → market must go down” The market doesn’t work like that. It prices: * probability * timing * relative outcomes If even **2–3 of your bearish points don’t materialize**, equities can still outperform cash. https://preview.redd.it/p7wy12mfdhqg1.jpeg?width=1106&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7a7958457ae05d80cf447cf19caea050e593b3d7

PrthReddits

US is on track to surpass WW2 debt to GDP ratio in next few years easily All US fund managers are balls deep invested at ATH lol with little money to buy dips: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/VT68UeYQXR Stagflation is on the horizon (inflation is sticky and looks like it will continue like even disregarding the Iran war which is gonna accelerate it + we have job losses now in the official numbers, though anyone trying to get a new job in 2025 knew the economy was cooked already)... This means Fed cannot do QE very easily and even if they do you cannot really print your way out of Stagflation very easily, plus I doubt QE will be a magic bullet that stops mass layoffs and white collar offshoring in America and this whole K shaped economy that is teetering despite consumer spending being 70% of GDP BTW!!! Private credit and venture capital is in the shit hole being over leveraged to the balls on GPT wrapper dogshit startups OR on SaaS that is being rerated lower from 48493944x PE ratio (see like Atlassian stock, Figma stock, Asana stock, basically any fucking SaaS stock even MSFT or NOW which are blue chip SaaS lol)... (look at $KKR or $APO stock and all of YC's and 16z's and etc.'s investments) Circular financing deals and debt that must see a return eventually for AI bubble spending, I'm talking both the AI labs and all the infrastructure providers (if this debt has to be paid back, stocks that were at ATH will be sold to do so btw)... You can't use ChatGPT or Claude forever while burning tens of billions of $$$ annually... Uber and Spotify and all these unicorns did it for years, but the magnitude of their capex burn into an oven to do so was nothing compared to OpenAI and Anthropic.... Mango is in office, non zero chance bro gets a stroke randomly in next 4y or like does other regarded shit to fk the economy over more and accelerate all of above said reasons Tell me what is bullish? Like genuinely idk The only thing i can think of is stocks are not as overpriced as in 1928 or 1999... Otherwise I don't know legit

Cold_Respond_7656

IRGC has shared list of US companies they will target in Middle East Lockheed- Boeing- AWS- Microsoft- Exxon- NSO- KKR- Boston group- Oracle- Citi- Bain & co- Trafigura- “'We warn the American regime to evacuate all American industries in the region. We ask people living near industrial factories in which Americans hold shares to leave those areas so they are not harmed,' said the Guard”

Asleep_Emphasis69

the big boy Alt asset managers are trading for like 0.5 PEG ratio which hasn’t been the case since covid times…Oversold $BX $KKR $BAM $APO

Coloradodreaming1

Software has sucked big time. Financials too, especially the private equity companies like KKR, APO, ARES, BLK, BX. Man they look like buys at 40% or the like down YTD and they pay dividends if I could just go against my instinct that these company stocks are falling knives.

Jericho3434

Look at private credit stocks like Blue Owl, Apollo, KKR. They have been limiting redemptions. Also, they are heavily invested in saas.

alfred250

Long story short go 3-6 months out, go best in breed, BX, KKR, Apollo. I dont even think a bailout is necessary, this is very overblown. DM me and i will send you my DD

BenisSpaghetti

Everyday KKR is red I'm happy. 😁

Warm_Pianist4879

its a private equity thing probably, gotta look into what publicly traded private equities (like KKR/CG) might have a stake

BenisSpaghetti

Every day that KKR is down is a good day for me. 😇

EvolvingDior

That's because firms like KKR are protected from the bad investments their funds make. They just get less money from their investors when the fund doesn't meet it's performance goals.

ThreeSupreme

Hmm... Guess U weren't around in 2008, huh? # No safety net: Why private credit faces it first real moment of truth **Provided by Dow Jones** \- Private credit is easy to enter but hard to exit. Retail investors suddenly seeking their money back could trigger a financial crisis. A spiral of illiquidity, forced selling, markdowns, and intense risk deleveraging could emerge. Sound familiar? It happened with securitization markets during the **2007-08 financial crisis**. The recent selloff of Blue Owl Capital's (OWL) stock after a redemption at one of its retail private-credit funds has become the poster child for increasing anxiety about the health of the private-credit market. Private credit has grown rapidly in recent years - approaching $2 trillion - and it has never been tested through a full recession or highly volatile financial-market stress. Private credit does not have the financial backstop of the U.S. Treasury or the Federal Reserve, unlike most banks. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently warned after a pair of private credit-backed companies declared bankruptcy that problems in private credit are rarely isolated. **Wall Street braces for a private credit meltdown** The fault line exposed now is that private credit is being offered to retail investors and wealthy individuals whose investment objectives are very different from sophisticated institutional investors. These new investors will quickly line up to get their money back, effectively forcing sales of illiquid assets, as in the case of Blue Owl. Shares of Blue Owl hit a 52-week low earlier this month, as did shares of Blackstone (BX). Other major firms including Carlyle Group (CG), KKR (KKR), Apollo Global Management (APO) and Ares Management (ARES) were also caught in the selloff. Private credit-related defaults, particularly among private equity-backed companies, have accelerated significantly in 2025 and early 2026. According to a March 6, 2026, report from Fitch Ratings, the U.S. Private Credit Default Rate hit a **record 9.2%** in 2025, following a previous record of 8.1% in 2024, with 38 defaults recorded among 28 different borrowers.  

WickedSensitiveCrew

APO, KKR and BX look interesting. Im leaning toward buying some APO. As they have been shifting their a lot of their AUM to perpetual capital.

dansdansy

Private equity- KKR, OWL, APO etc. Though maybe not these three, I really think eventually some of them may go under.

_hiddenscout

If you want to be contrarian and buy into pain, APO and KKR are selling off.

Rare-ish_Birb

All the private equity together have $ 2+ trillion in illiquid, underwater SAAS portfolio companies rn, with no hope of IPO to offload. The clearing event would be writing down those companies to zero. Bye bye Softbank, KKR, Blackstone, Appollo, Carlyle, GS.

Difficult-Level7038

Put/call ratio for KKR makes me wanna puke

Silverfin113

Just missed it maybe KKR worth buying still.

ideletedmyaccount04

some of you are beating the entire private credit market. Carlyle -25% Apollo -39% Ares -42% Blackstone -43% KKR -44% Blue Owl -61%

persua

I like the alts managers at these prices (APO, KKR)

leomeng

Surprisingly I’ve been able to bail on CRM NOW BX KKR with very little damage in overnight. I bought all near the Friday close price. Would rather get a scrape wound now than risk crazy meltdown.

LarryStink

I think Apollo, KKR, and Blue Owl said the same thing just recently

Commercial_Deer_7114

As a Europoor myself, I have to say we deserve all the bad policy we are getting as the average Europoor is completely regarded. It is illegal for EU citizens to buy US and Canadian ETF's and REITS, so for example it is a crime to invest in Boston Pizza or KKR BRD's. When you point out how absurd that is, the entire European left is ready to erase your family lineage going back to the first single-cell organisms. People that otherwise are too lazy to even collect all of their wellfare checks.

IBangTokyoWife

I've always had trouble valuing private equity. I like BX KKR APO but their revenue and earnings are so dependent on them finding diamonds in the rough. Sometimes they get several all at once and sometimes they don't get any for a while. How do you determine when they're cheap or expensive? Recurring revenue is pretty low

Bagholder71

Companies possibly interested in buying PYPL.. Confirmed interest: Stripe Analyst / media speculation: JPMorgan Chase, American Express, Revolut, private equity firms (Apollo, KKR), Walmart 

jkswift1776

ParaSky has the same law firm as KKR did when buying RJR Nabisco.

Much_Candle_942

Just a narrative..  KKR, OWL's own management is loading up on their stocks like crazy 

SuperSimpleSam

KKR stacked it with poor earnings for a hefty drop.

KingRegardothe2nd

>Wall Street opened the week under heavy pressure as risk sentiment deteriorated on AI-related credit concerns and fresh trade uncertainty amid the feud between President Donald Trump and the Supreme Court. >The blue-chip index was weighed down by sharp losses in financial names. A wave of selling hit asset managers after concerns emerged around a private credit fund managed by Blue Owl Capital Inc. (NYSE:OWL). The firm announced it is liquidating $1.4 billion in assets to raise money to pay out individual investors Apollo Global Management Inc. (NYSE:APO) sank 6.6% on the day, marking its worst session since Liberation Day. Blackstone Inc. (NYSE:BX) slid 6.7% and has now dropped 16% over the past three sessions, its steepest three-day decline since March 2020, touching the lowest level since late 2023. Ares Management Corp. (NYSE:ARES) fell 6.3% KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE:KKR) tumbled 8.3%, extending its monthly loss to 20%, the worst stretch since 2015. The weakness spilled into established financial heavyweights. American Express (NYSE:AXP) dropped 7.4%, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) lost 3.5% and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) retreated 4.5%. For the broader Financials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLF) it’s the worst day since early April 2025.

dvdmovie1

Didn't OWL go public via SPAC? Hasn't been the greatest investment before this and there's considerable risk - names like this are always going to be 10 slow steps forward 7-8 quick steps backwards. I'd rather KKR near April 2025 lows if I wanted private equity names.

506Investor

I would add that knowing about new RIA funds is one of the biggest advantage to a private group for accredited and QP's only. Many of the new interval PE Secondary funds have a first month pops of 10% and a 20% first year return before reverting to the mean. Getting in day one is the key. The beauty of the interval fund is its semi liquid and you can get out after the 20% year one return. Then rinse and repeat with the KKR's of the world. The 506 Group had 9 in 2025 that averaged close to a 2% a month return. Invest direct with the sponsor and not fool around with feeder funds if the RIA can negotiate lower minimums

GSPointerDad

Ahhh…sorry! But their new CEO 🤩…and they retain a chunk of Wella proceeds when KKR takes it public.

BenisSpaghetti

How long until we wake up to some large institution failing to pay their bills? Our parent company (KKR) levers themselves to the hilt. Even 1-2% misses send the managers running. 🥴

WickedSensitiveCrew

APO was [shorting software companies](https://www.ft.com/content/137bfe82-3e52-418b-9d4f-930978b2532e) back in Dec 2025. Funny that they got punished by the PE firms holding these software companies, even though this news has been public for a couple months lol. Literally the bear case everyone’s talking about APO called it back in Dec 2025. I guess we will get more info from KKR on their earnings.

WickedSensitiveCrew

I think the exposure by KKR is overblown. APO was [shorting software companies](https://www.ft.com/content/137bfe82-3e52-418b-9d4f-930978b2532e) back in Dec 2025. Interesting they got punished by the PE firms hold software stocks when that public news been out for a couple months now lol.

_hiddenscout

Really interesting tidbit I learned the other day about private equity. A lot of them are stuck with a bunch of businesses they basically can no longer sale lol. Since they acquired a lot when rates where low. Also interesting how I think KKR has a lot of SaaS business too, which probably won't IPO now. Really interesting dynamics.

johtuleso

My next buy limit: Apollo 115, KKR 95, Msft 403… looks like we are not going there

No_Zookeepergame_27

Anyone bought KKR ahead of earnings tomorrow?

RolledForCredit

I’m buying some alts this morning (KKR, BX, ARES). I think this notion that “anthropic kills software therefore kills alt portfolios” is wayyy overdone. Everything I see shows that the SaaS cos are actually still doing just fine, they’ve just been de-rated. Falling valuations for software cos doesn’t necessarily mean falling revenues (at portcos), it just means that the market isn’t willing to pay as much for their earnings. One could argue that perhaps future growth rates or margins are overstated to the extent that vibe coded solutions make dents there , but that’s about it. So I don’t see massive defaults arising from this. I think this is especially true for things like cybersecurity; as if any real business would go with a vibe-coded solution over PANW or CRWD; lol. I'm regarded, so DYOR, but these are my thoughts.

Good-Traffic-875

Why did KKR drop 10% in the news of the takeover STT GDC? 

johtuleso

Kind of… bought some more of KKR and Apollo today. We will see how far down will we meet

AluminiumCaffeine

why is KKR down -10% did they become a saas company when I wasnt looking?

thalassamikra

Private credit KKR OWL in shambles and CRWV barely down for the day? What else are these private credit funds doing besides datacenter anyway?

dvdmovie1

No. Looking in the technically oversold, maybe some interesting trades but not really seeing opportunities for things to add as long-term holdings. Some mildly interesting stuff that's technically oversold: ABT, SPGI, KKR, CEG (although the IPP theme hasn't been working well for a bit), TTWO, FICO, IOT, MORN, CHDN. Maybe a couple of others.

Outrageous_Tip_2133

Or a lot of private equity stocks like APO, KKR, etc. Or Investment banking stocks like GS, MS, etc. Or just boring bank stocks like JPM,, WFC. While Mag 7 and tech has been hyped up, a lot of financial stocks have done really well since Covid and outperformed most tech names except NVDA.

EquityIcarus

I work in wealth management and work with a lot of these firms(Blue Owl, Eaton Vance, KKR, etc) frequently. All I will say is that there is a reason private investments firms are pushing to allow you to invest your 401k with them

Nefarious_AI_Agent

Names of interest in the contact book regarding market. * Rupert Murdoch – News Corp * Michael Bloomberg – Bloomberg L.P. * Bob Pittman – iHeartMedia (formerly AOL Time Warner) * Steve Forbes – Forbes Media * Conrad Black – Hollinger International * Mortimer Zuckerman – Boston Properties / U.S. News & World Report * Casey Wasserman – Wasserman Media Group * Les Wexner – L Brands (Victoria's Secret) * Johan Eliasch – HEAD * Sir Anthony Bamford – JCB * David Koch – Koch Industries * Henry Kravis – KKR * Ron Burkle – The Yucaipa Companies * Gustavo Cisneros – Cisneros Group * Sam Waksal – ImClone Systems * Donald Trump – The Trump Organization * Andre Balazs – André Balazs Properties * Alfred Taubman – Taubman Centers * Bernie Ecclestone – Formula One Group * Alejandro Agag – Formula E Holdings * Richard Branson – Virgin Group * Flavio Briatore – Benetton / Renault F1 * Jeffrey Steiner – Fairchild Corporation

eska089

I also thought about how I can financially profit from this development and I realized the smartest play is to buy the Casino, not the chips. If retail capital is flooding in to be the exit liquidity, the ones making the guaranteed money are the General Partners managing the funds. So instead of buying their semi-liquid products, I'm considering buying the stock of the firms themselves, like Blackstone (BX), KKR, or Apollo. At first I worried that if the AI/tech bubble bursts, these stocks would crash too. But then I looked at the data on "Fee-Related Earnings." Unlike a VC fund that needs a profitable exit to get paid, these firms charge management fees on committed capital. So even if the underlying assets drop 40% and they have to "gate" the retail fund to stop withdrawals, they still collect that 1-2% fee on the locked-in money for years. The casino gets paid even when the players are losing. Plus, their own exposure is totally different from what they sell. While they sell retail investors debt or equity in risky startups, the firms themselves are buying "picks and shovels", like physical data centers and energy infrastructure. That stuff retains value (at least parts of it) even if the AI software market implodes. It’s not risk-free, but it’s the difference between owning the car in the crash versus owning the insurance company. As long as this "democratization" trend continues, you basically become the owner of the house rather than the gambler at the table. But in the end, I still think I’ll sit this one out. It’s still a derivative bet on a bubble, and I’m not chasing profits within a bubble. My strategy is simple: sell into this liquidity, increase my cash position and wait for better valuations or new opportunities. Sometimes the best trade is doing nothing and wait. 😉

WickedSensitiveCrew

I dont really post in this thread everyday. I pop in once every couple weeks. I dont care about bulls/bears here to make money and noticed a few PE firms APO/KKR up a bit wondered what happened.

WickedSensitiveCrew

What is going on with PE firms like APO, KKR, OWL, and BX?

Historical_Air_8997

From a quick browse of your post history it looks like you have about $1.5m. While you qualify to be an accredited investor you’re barely on the cusp and wont be the first call companies make for investors. I work in alternatives and the main benefit here is moderate returns that are generally not correlated to the stock market. If you do want to dip your toes into alternatives you should look into a closed-end fund at a credible place like JPM/KKR/Ares/Apollo etc. They tend to have high fees/expenses that eat into returns but the big ones usually beat inflation after fees. Some places may not want your money, I’ve worked at places that don’t talk to anyone under $20m in liquid assets with $500k min commitments. There are funds with pretty low buy ins at like $10k, but with higher fees. I would avoid trying to get into private equity on your own and pre-ipo can be very risky. You don’t sound like you’re ready for that yet, should keep learning for a year or two and read up on companies and track some without investing real money. You’re more likely to win the lottery than turning $25k into $2m in alternatives. It’s not impossible, but the people who do are either extremely lucky or very good at what they do and have tons of investments that went $25k to $0.

FRNAP13

I’m an accredited investor. I invest a portion of my portfolio in private equity such as KKR and Blackstone. I’m not getting better returns than the S&P500, but better stability and less volatility as it’s disconnected or not correlated, totally, with the market.

FRNAP13

Top wealth management firm can’t run with your money. It’s under your name. Anything needs your approval. If something ever happened, the parent company would owe you a lot of money as it’s against the law. For the investments, I could choose to “VOO and Chill” like most are doing, which means, invest in the S&P500 and forget it. I choose a wealth management to achieve different goals (and I might be wrong, so do not take it as an advice but more as sharing my experience). The portfolio direct indexing S&P500, is like VOO and chill, so following the market performance and delivering tax loss harvesting. It’s my main portfolio. The portfolio direct indexing Russell 1000, is a growth portfolio, delivering better performance than S&P500, and tax loss harvesting. Growth being more volatile, I get more tax losses. Russell is up 4% more than S&P500 this year. Private Equities is providing good returns, and provides stability in case of crash as disconnected from the market. I use KKR, Stepstone, Blackstone… My other growth portfolio is having a bit of bitcoin, SPMO, QQQ, VOO and a large portion of international. The last portfolio is more a balanced one with 25 different value stocks.

SlfImpr

Bruh... Wall Street will do what it always does to squezee them profits RIP jobs in the US >[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-11-11/trump-s-h-1b-visa-curbs-banks-to-add-more-finance-specialist-jobs-in-india](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-11-11/trump-s-h-1b-visa-curbs-banks-to-add-more-finance-specialist-jobs-in-india) >**Wall Street to Speed Up India Hiring on Trump’s H-1B Visa Curbs** >Investment banks are hiring finance specialists in hubs like Bengaluru and Hyderabad. >Updated on November 12, 2025 at 1:12 AM EST >JPMorgan Chase & Co. is hiring credit support specialists in Bengaluru to check for covenant breaches. Across town, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is seeking associates to review loans tied to everything from commercial property to yachts. In Mumbai, buyout giant KKR & Co. is adding staff to monitor its portfolio companies, while hedge fund Millennium Management LLC is seeking risk analysts for its derivatives trading team. >The flurry of job postings underscores Wall Street’s growing reliance on Indian hubs, where JPMorgan employs nearly a fifth of its global workforce. This long-running recruitment push is now poised to accelerate as US President Donald Trump moves to tighten immigration by driving up visa costs, adding even more of these sophisticated finance roles in India. >Senior executives from at least two US banks in India are in talks with their head offices to consider ways to ramp up their so-called global capability centers in response to the H-1B visa crackdown, according to people familiar with the matter. Some lenders that had extended offer letters for positions in the US are looking to either revoke them or create alternative roles at their GCCs, the people said.

WickedSensitiveCrew

Certain healthcare stocks and REITs have crashed and not fully recovered. Im adding to PE firms like APO and KKR. APO sports arm just became the major shareholder in a La Liga team. Will be interesting if they expand and buy a NBA, MLB, or NFL team in the future.

kalterik

\- No, high dividend yield could mean a lot of things. In this case because payout ratio isn't concerning or outside of industry standard it just means share price is down. \- Neither, KKR & PIMCO bought almost all of their accounts receivable because they're desperately looking for new sources of private credit deals. Fantastic deal for HD unless motorcycle sales never recover, in that case they just sold off a \~10% equity stake in their highest margin business unit. \- Hog customers are a wide mix, recently because of past CEO's focus on high margin touring bikes this has been a larger chunk recently than historically. These customers tend to be high middle/upper (think small business owners not Jeff Bezos) class. Other bikes with lower prices tend to pander more toward lower/middle classes. My general thesis revolves around the fat OBBA tax refunds the former group will be getting come Q1/Q2 of 26. I'm happy being early here because of high total yield \~8% for remainder of year (\~7% w/ accelerated buyback + \~1% dividend Yield for Q4).

_hiddenscout

$KKR KKR reports Q3 adjusted EPS $1.41, consensus $1.30   -- Q3 revenue $5.25B, consensus $2.26B. Reports Q3 AUM $723B, up 16% year-over-year.

_hiddenscout

That sucks. I'm red overall, but at least have a few winners, but all earnings report related: $LDOS is doing well from their report this morning. $KKR is probably up because of $APO report. $STRL is up from their report yesterday. $SMID is probably up from $GLDD's report. $SHGC is up from their report. Also have some big losers too: $UBER, $RKLB, $SHLS, $PRIM are all down over 5%.

Puzzleheaded-One-607

Great numbers. No clue why it trades at such a discount to KKR and BX

bellahamface

Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan is in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia for the Future Investment Initiative. On the opening panel 10/28 (just before pre-market 10/28). There’s way too many bullish things for Intel to list. https://fii-institute.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/FII9-Program_26-September-2025_Updated-2.pdf BOARD OF IS THE WORLD HEADING CHANGEMAKERS: GEOECONOMICS FROM FREE TO STRATEGIC TRADE? Nations are now wielding trade routes, supply chains, and financial flows as the primary instruments of geopolitical influence, reshaping the global order more profoundly than traditional diplomacy. While global GDP growth is forecasted at 2.8% for 2025, this masks a deep fragmentation as commerce between rival blocs shrinks and internal regional trade intensifies. As capital, technology, and critical minerals become the new front lines of competition, will shared economic interest become a bridge for collaboration, or simply draw the lines for a permanently fractured world? Speakers: • Bill Ackman, Founder & CEO, Pershing Square Capital Management • Cristiano R. Amon, President & CEO, Qualcomm Incorporated • Jamie Dimon, Chairman & CEO, JPMorgan Chase • Georges Elhedery, CEO, HSBC • Laurence Fink, Chairman & CEO, BlackRock • Bruce Flatt, CEO, Brookfield Asset Management • Adena Friedman, Chair & CEO, Nasdaq, Inc. • Scott Nuttall, Co-CEO, KKR • Stephen A. Schwarzman, Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO, The Blackstone Group • David Solomon, Chairman & CEO, Goldman Sachs • *Lip-Bu Tan, CEO, Intel*

ANGELeffEr

Sorry for this long tirade guys, but all these BYND “squeeze”play guy bragging bout stupidity has struck a nerve. What’s really interesting is why so many of these Bynd regards are so intent on shining a light on their own stupidity, I’m not saying hide it but I’ve never seen so many people all posting the same level of commitment to show Off their ignorance of the market…one dude Literally posted his entry at $7.69. I bought plenty of shares and contracts of that shit ass company over the past two weeks, and no I didn’t play it perfect, but I’m not a bagger worried bout where my wife is rt now either. I just don’t see the point in advertising my mistakes unless they are due to some completely unusual circumstance and I’m seeking insight, especially when every other regard is doin the same. Mistakes are natures teaching guides, most learn from and are better for it, I know I am. Do some DD, learn the market allows you to make money no matter which direction it’s going, stop thinking you are banding together with your brother Bulls to save America from the shorts and Wall St., especially when those brother Bulls are just using you to help drive price and always bail out as soon as it gets just high enough for their minimal profits needed, learn that every transaction has two parties on opposite sides and both are trying to achieve the same goal, and for Christs Sake go read the article/study from September( last Month!) by Chase (I think) about how MMs and Funds are quietly buying up millions of Meme Stock shares months before the dreaded Gamma Squeeze, in preparation for said Gamma Squeeze. Just wake up and realize they are the insiders, the ones in the know, and they do everything in their power to rig the system in their favor…why you ask…cause it’s their fucking job and they get paid a ton of money to do it, and they know if they don’t/ can’t keep it rigged in their favor their is a long line of equally smart and capable people dying for a chance to show they got what it takes to win. Tell your wife to find a real man who isn’t only Partially committed to doing something, she’ll find a man of commitment to his work/livelyhood does every aspect of life a little better. And no you’ll never be Roaring Kitty, dude actually understood market sentiment, to some degree at least. And I’ll leave with this, way way back in the mid 90s when I interned at Credit Suisse First Boston, one of the first things I learned, and definitely the one that stuck with me was that those insiders…they don’t give a fuck bout you, your wife , mortgage, or whether you can’t take losses like this anymore and thoughts of hurting yourself are creeping into Your Mind. My Mentor asked me the first, last & only time he took me to lunch what the jobs of guys in the investment banking, arbitrage, or trade desk were. I sat there for nearly ten minutes trying to explain the duties of each department, he sat there quietly and let me ramble on and on until I finally needed a sip of water for my dry mouth. He said “you done or got another ten minutes left in you. I said I’m done, he said good…we all have only one job at CSFB, the same job that everyone has at Merrill, Goldman or KKR…”GREENMAIL” we get paid an obscene amount of money to make sure that we(the CEO, the Bank, Wall St, him & now me also) have more money in our pockets when we go home at the end of the day than when we arrived in the morning. That’s it, plain and simple…one task, one purpose THRU ANY MEANS NECESSARY. So quit bragging bout bag holding, or getting stopped out, calling yourself a bull, hating the shorts, and just fully embrace this profession 100% same as if you were working some dangerous job offshore or something and not committing would Likely get you hurt or killed. And I say this cause I personally know what kind of people you say you’re fighting/going up against, and I promise you they take their job as serious as anyone I’ve ever been around in my entire career.