KKR

Weekly-Barracuda-494

What buyout? THIS IS MY UNDERSTANDING OF THE SITUATION. Do your own due diligence, don't believe mine. This was posted on YAHOO.... Spero Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPRO) has entered into a $105 million non-recourse, non-dilutive royalty financing agreement with affiliates of HealthCare Royalty (HCRx), a company majority owned by KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE:KKR), providing fresh capital to support its clinical pipeline without issuing new shares. SPRO bought an asset from Innovent for all their royalty stream from GSK until the $105 million is paid back, then after its all paid back they only get 35% of the revenue from the royalties, while the buyer gets 65%. Even if the asset they bought from Innovent is a blockbuster, initially they would barely have enough money to run Phase 2 and 3 trials if the FDA allows the trials AND if they get all the milestone payments from GSK, in addition to paying hundreds of millions(up to $1.1 billion to Innovent based on milestones). The only way they get bought out is if GSK wants to save the $300 million(approximately) in milestone payments, and they like the Innovent asset, but any buyer would be on the hook to pay back the $105 million and 65% of the promised royalties to the other company. Not clean or very profitable now. I am just a bag holder at this point. I am hoping SPRO doesn't go below $1 a share and face delisting in their endeavor to SWITCH horses from antibiotics. If they do go below $1 share price, will they do reverse stock split? I went from thinking this was a guaranteed winner with the money from the Tebipenem Hbr to a 3-5 year limbo period with multiple dilution points possible along the way. I would be happy at this point to just recoup my initial investment somewhere along the line, but its very murky now. To go from a clean win to a pivot and potential chance at a potential win 3-5 years down the road IF they have successful phase 2 and Phase 3 FDA trials is a kick in the teeth to the stockholders by the management of this company. Maybe GSK will surprise me and make an offer, but I wouldn't count on it or bet on it.

kaapooj

>KKR & Co. has started marketing a debt deal tied to PayPal Holdings Inc.’s buy now, pay later business in Germany, the first of its kind in Europe. bullish? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-15/kkr-markets-debt-backed-by-paypal-s-buy-now-pay-later-loans

Much_Candle_942

They're saying - okay, we'll buy your junk bonds, private equity of Blue Owl, KKR..  Just don't destabilize our governments with your social media and Palantir 

nuketheburritos

No I mean PE firms buying up every upstream SMB and MM company and using private credit facilities to do so with no cash, then using payment-in-kind structure to load the interest the business cant afford back into the principal until the ballon payment is due, at which point KKR or Blackstone takes the assets and writes down the loss for 90%.

OracleOmaha

One of the first lessons many SPAC investors learn is that partnerships can be announced easily. Actual institutional adoption is much harder. That's why the most compelling part of the Securitize story isn't tokenization itself. It's who has already chosen to work with them. When some of the largest financial institutions in the world evaluate infrastructure providers, they aren't making decisions based on marketing presentations or social media excitement. They perform extensive due diligence covering technology, compliance, operations, cybersecurity, regulatory frameworks, legal risk, and scalability. That is what makes Securitize's customer and partner list worth paying attention to. The most notable example is BlackRock. BlackRock selected Securitize as the infrastructure provider for BUIDL, its tokenized money market fund. BUIDL has grown into one of the largest tokenized funds in the market, with approximately $2.5B assets under management as of June 2026. Think about that for a moment. BlackRock is the largest asset manager in the world. It had countless options available when deciding how to bring one of its first major tokenized products to market. The company chose Securitize. More importantly, BlackRock has since filed for a second tokenized fund using the same infrastructure. That is often a stronger signal than the original selection itself. Beyond BlackRock, the institutional ecosystem surrounding Securitize is significant. Names associated with the platform include: * Apollo * BNY Mellon * KKR * Hamilton Lane * VanEck * Morgan Stanley * Coinbase Ventures * Circle * Ripple These are organizations managing hundreds of billions, and in some cases trillions, of dollars in assets. Another development that caught my attention was New York Stock Exchange selectingSecuritize as its design partner and first broker-dealer connection for its tokenized equities initiative. The vision includes: * Tokenized securities * Near-instant settlement * Extended trading availability * More efficient market infrastructure Thisdemonstrates that tokenization is increasingly being discussed by institutions that traditionally define how capital markets operate. There's also another signal that deserves attention. Moody's assigned a AAA-mf rating to BlackRock's tokenized money market fund. That may sound technical, but it's important. Credit rating agencies are among the most conservative participants in finance. The fact that institutional-grade risk frameworks are now being applied to tokenized products suggests this market is moving beyond experimentation and into broader institutional evaluation. To me, the key takeaway isn't that tokenization is guaranteed to succeed. It's that some of the largest institutions in global finance are investing real resources, real capital, and real reputational risk into exploring it. And when those institutions needed infrastructure, many of them chose Securitize. *\*This post is for educational and informational purposes only. Some promotional materials and publicly available company information are discussed. This is not investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.*

banned-from-rbooks

Check out Ed Zitron He’s been digging deep into the finances of AI companies, data centers and private credit for years. The numbers are damning. He has a podcast called Better Offline. Here’s another fun fact that OP didn’t mention: \* In some cases, **asset managers have purchased insurance companies with the explicit intention of using them as funders for future private credit investments**, such as [Apollo’s acquisition of Athene](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/apollo-global-to-buy-athene-in-11-billion-deal.html?ref=wheresyoured.at), [KKR’s acquisition of Global Atlantic](https://www.globalatlantic.com/news/kkr-closes-acquisition-global-atlantic-financial-group-limited?ref=wheresyoured.at), and [Blue Owl’s acquisition of Kuvare](https://www.blueowl.com/news/blue-owl-capital-acquire-kuvare-asset-management-750-million?ref=wheresyoured.at) … Asset managers offering private credit market themselves as bank-like stewards of capital, but lack many (if any) of the restrictions that make you actually trust a bank. They self-deal, investing their insurance affiliates’ funds in their own equity investments (such as [when KKR used Global Atlantic to invest in data center developer CyrusOne](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/insurance-money-latest-funding-source-ai-developers?rc=kz8jh3&ref=wheresyoured.at), [a company it acquired in 2022](https://www.global-infra.com/news/kkr-and-gip-complete-acquisition-of-cyrusone/?ref=wheresyoured.at)), value and revalue assets based on mysterious and undocumented private models, and account for (as I mentioned) 70% of all funding of leveraged buyouts in the last decade, [of which 30 to 40% were software companies purchased between 2018 and 2022](https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/insights/2026/04/john-zito-on-software--ai-disruption--and-putting-capital-to-wor?ref=wheresyoured.at), meaning that hundreds of billions of dollars of retirement and insurance funds are dependent on overvalued software companies paying loans funded during the zero interest free era.

Extension-Temporary4

This.  Before drawing comparisons to 2008 or sounding the alarm bells, it’s worth grounding this discussion in some basic numbers. The private credit market stood at ~ $3 trillion at the start of 2025 and the U.S. subprime mortgage market was estimated at $1.3 trillion as of March 2007 — but the broader mortgage market that became infected was far larger. The total U.S. mortgage market was estimated at $12 trillion, with approximately 6.4% of loans delinquent and 2.75% in foreclosure as of August 2008. U.S. bank loan losses alone were projected at approximately $1.1 trillion out of a total $1.6 trillion, with an additional $600–700 billion in mark-to-market writedowns on securities — amounting to ~ $1.8 trillion against a total bank capitalization of only $1.4 trillion. it’s a fundamentally different setup than what we see in private credit today. For private credit to be comparably catastrophic, you’d need near-total default across a market that is still a fraction of the size, and you’d need that contagion to spread through globally interconnected balance sheets. Neither condition exists. During the GFC, financial institutions around the globe had written down subprime-related securities by over $500 billion by August 2008 — and the transmission mechanism was the MBS/CDO structure that embedded those losses inside virtually every major bank and institutional investor on the planet. Private credit doesn’t work that way. Loans are bilateral, held on fund balance sheets, not sliced into opaque tranches and sold globally. There are also structural buffers that the GFC simply didn’t have. Private credit funds can restrict withdrawals, extend loan maturities, and work out troubled credits directly with borrowers. If a KKR or Ares fund hits serious stress, the question isn’t automatic contagion — it’s whether the fund manager’s broader platform is adequately capitalized and diversified enough to absorb it, take over underlying businesses, or sell assets in an orderly fashion. That’s a very different failure mode than a bank run on institutions holding billions in suddenly worthless MBS. Signs worth watching do exist — PIK interest (where borrowers defer cash payments by adding to principal) in direct lending averaged about 4.2% pre-pandemic, rose to 7.4% post-pandemic, and reached roughly 8.8% in Q3 2025, which bears monitoring. But stress indicators are a far cry from systemic crisis. The GFC was systemic because the losses were massive, hidden inside complex instruments, and distributed across every major financial institution in the world simultaneously. Private credit problems, if they materialize, are far more likely to be a painful but contained repricing event for a relatively small universe of specialty lenders and their LPs — not a replay of 2008.

SONOFERGUS

CLO managers like KKR Ares Apollo are getting smashed. Not for nothing. OP knows their shit.

siboq

“BlackRock ordered at least $5 billion of SpaceX shares as part of broader institutional investment activity including KKR's majority stake acquisition in Crowe and Dana's combination with Eaton's Mobility business.” I’ve never been more bullish in my life. Feels like wearing Shreks massive green candle like a sock puppet.

B00LEAN_RADLEY

More private equity withdrawal restrictions. Private equity doesn't want to use the word "panic" but their actions speak louder than words. Private equity isn't bound by accurate quarterly reported like publicly traded companies. So they dump bad news after they close the gates. Cliffwater has joined the limited withdrawals chat group. Long time members KKR, Blackstone (not to be confused with Blackrock) Ares, BlueOwl and Carlyle. They only allow "big money" to invest in the complex products. Do the elites know something we don't? Everyone wants out before the June 30th quarter ends. Sniff, sniff. What's the smell? The shit hitting the fan. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fa7nSzCiGXk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fa7nSzCiGXk)

fishingandstuff

This is a diagram from Scion Asset Management (Michael Burry’s firm) and Cassandra Unchained, so it’s coming from a credible skeptic, not random WSB noise. Let me break down what’s actually being claimed and how seriously to take it. What the diagram is alleging The core claim: Retirees buying Athene annuities are unknowingly funding xAI’s GPU cluster, while Apollo extracts massive fees and Nvidia books revenue — with risk obscured through regulatory arbitrage. The chain: 1. Retirees buy Athene “safe” fixed/indexed annuities 2. Athene cedes $217B in assets to a Bermuda captive reinsurer (Athene Annuity Re) via Modified Coinsurance — moving reserves off US regulatory balance sheets 3. Apollo directs those captive assets into deals like VALOR/VCI — a $5.4B SPV that buys Nvidia GB200 GPUs 4. VCI leases the chips to xAI on a triple-net lease 5. Nvidia sells $5.4B in chips and invests $1.9B back as LP equity — booking clean revenue 6. Apollo earns fees throughout; xAI gets its Grok cluster funded What’s legitimately concerning • The Bermuda ModCo structure is real and disclosed — but “legal and disclosed” doesn’t mean the risk is understood by annuity buyers • 16.6x leverage on the Re entity with 34.7% Level 3 (no market price) assets is genuinely alarming for what’s supposed to be conservative insurance reserves • Regulatory arbitrage — Bermuda has lighter capital requirements than US state insurance regulators, so moving assets there reduces the capital cushion protecting policyholders • Concentration risk — annuity reserves backing illiquid, speculative AI infrastructure is a mismatch problem What’s overstated or needs context • Triple-net GPU leases to a creditworthy counterparty aren’t inherently reckless — they’re structured finance • Apollo has done this architecture across many deals, not just xAI • The “gifting 6x fees” framing is rhetoric; the fees are real but the multiple needs sourcing • This isn’t unique to Apollo — Blackstone/Athena, KKR/Global Atlantic do similar structures Bottom line The diagram is directionally accurate and the underlying concern is legitimate — this is the same structural risk that got flagged in the 2023–2024 wave of insurance/PE scrutiny. The real systemic question is: what happens if AI infrastructure valuations collapse and those Level 3 assets reprice? The losses flow back toward Athene’s balance sheet and ultimately policyholders. Burry has a track record of being early and right on structural risk that others dismiss. This isn’t tinfoil — it’s worth watching.

Timid-Tiger

|HOLDING|WEIGHT| |:-|:-| |Fidelity Index World Class P Acc|28.2%| |iShares S&P 500 Top 20 UCITS ETF|15.6%| |iShares MSCI Global Semiconductors ETF|8.8%| |Vanguard US 500 Stock Index Instl|7.6%| |iShares MSCI EM Asia UCITS ETF|5.8%| |Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 UCITS ETF|5.6%| |Marvell Technology Inc|5.3%| |Global X Defence Tech UCITS ETF|3.0%| |First Trust Nasdaq Smart Grid ETF|1.7%| |Amphenol Corp Class A|1.7%| |iShares Physical Gold ETC|1.6%| |Xtrackers MSCI Korea Index ETF|1.6%| |LVMH Moet Hennessy (CDI)|1.4%| |[Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) Inc|1.4%| |ASML Holding NV|1.3%| |Vistra Corp|1.2%| |Constellation Energy Corp|1.2%| |Arista Networks Inc|1.2%| |iShares Physical Silver ETC|1.1%| |Apollo Global Management|0.8%| |Arthur J. Gallagher & Co|0.8%| |KKR & Co Inc|0.6%| |Novo Nordisk B|0.6%| |Alibaba Group Holding ADS|0.4%| |Walt Disney Co|0.3%| |Enphase Energy Inc|0.3%| |PayPal Holdings Inc|0.1%| |Cash|0.9%| | |100.0%|

BeginnersDuck777

That was such a great movie. I remember at the time going “What the fuck is KKR?” And finding out what private equity was. Real eye opening.

tutorbkk1

KKR has been beaten up. Bagholder here.

the_bagel_warmonger

By this same argument, a whole market fund would also need an allocation of Pokemon cards, labubus, luxury cars, etc. The point of buying the market is not necessarily to buy every single asset. PE is a completely different asset, with a completely different regulatory structure and value proposition compared to public equities. Your exposure to that market is through public companies that do private equity (like Blackstone, KKR, and Apollo)

weightedslanket

These companies don’t run a single “fund.” They run many and the best funds and opportunities go to the most valuable investors. Sure you may get to invest in a KKR fund but it’s going to be bottom of the barrel scraps

vishtratwork

Why do you think the large cap names indexed here wouldn't be materially the same ones? KKR, Apollo, etc aren't capping their funds.

James161324

So PE has been in a large portion of the retirement accounts for decades. Pretty much every private, state and federal pension program has an allocation to PE. Heck, even if you own VOO, you have exposure to PE, APO, KKR, and BX, are part of the index.

WickedSensitiveCrew

Non-tech, financials, and international stocks. Some examples MELI, COF, and KKR/APO. I have also been buying space stocks like LUNR.

WickedSensitiveCrew

Im glad I cut my losses faster and rotated into memory, semis, data center stocks, etc. has worked out really well for me. For example could have been bag holding KKR, MEDP, KNSL, etc. Instead rotated into AUR/BE and recovered all the losses I had in those stocks.

WickedSensitiveCrew

Cutting my losses in the boring stocks and rotating into tech plays like memory, semis, NBIS, etc. has worked out really well for me. For example, I gave up on KKR and KNSL in favor of AUR, FCEL, and LUNR and I made back my losses within a month.

cryptohorn

JPMorgan Chase-led bank group reins in credit line to troubled KKR private credit fund as losses mount

wolverinexci

Is is degen to short the company that owns Canvas (the school infrastructure learnings company, probably used it if you went to school in the last 15 years) KKR is the company apparently

Dry_Try_6047

I'll give you the skinny from someone who has contributed the max to my 401k mostly my entire adult life AND got very lucky in that I started working in 2007 (now age 41), so aside from the very first contributions, have been investing into a historically unprecedented bull market. In addition, I've had mostly good employer matches, culminating with my current employer who has the best match I've had in my career (16k contribution, which is the max they offer, on the minus side it comes all at once in February of the following year).Also factor in my wife who has saved as diligently, but not as aggressively. We have about 1.75 million across all 401k/IRA accounts, mostly traditional but maybe 25% roth, over a now 19-year career. About 1.25m to my name, 500k to her name. Additionally, we plan on retiring early so need money in non-taxable accounts for ages 50 to 60, so we have about 700k in public equities, 300k in PE funds (not KKR, think multifamily syndication deals, min 200k investment for accredited investors) and maybe 250k in cash. We are now actually doing about 120k per year in 401k contributions, which includes massive backdoor roth strategy, and trying to save up cash for more of these PE MF syndication deals, as we feel we are too heavyweight in public equities. Won't mention 529s that are there also, as obviously those are meant to be spent, but these are also fully funded so we aren't paying for college in our retirement. I give this as an example because I think I am at or near the top of my age group for retirement savings ... in my experience I don't know anyone who has near this level of savings. I would be weary of anyone saying they have more, as I believe this represents the cap.

_SirShackleton_

How about this: More than 11 percent of share float short with heavy institutional holders not willing to sell. KKR holds 17 percent. Recent runup creates even more buy pressure and potential for a short squeeze.

ai-moderator

#TLDR --- **Ticker:** CRGY (Crescent Energy) **Direction:** Up **Prognosis:** Buy shares/calls and wait for Big Oil to write a fat check **Catalyst:** KKR is dressing them up for a buyout (refinancing debt, optimizing balance sheet) **Vibe:** Lookin' like a quick, bite-sized snack ready to get swallowed whole by a supermajor

NaluknengBalong_0918

!p vm analyze the option chain of KKR for me

WickedSensitiveCrew

Hopefully it works out for you. PE firms are one of those sectors people have morals on due to how they do buyouts and exits. But you are obviously in a situation you want to be contrarian. I feel you need macro such as Iran war ending. Or if they finally speak on earnings. Because OWL/KKR have been silent through all those news headlines about the withdrawals being limited.

WickedSensitiveCrew

I own shares in APO and KKR. Why do you think the narrative can shift sooner to bet on a specific time frame with options? Was it BX earnings coming out last week? Seems when you try to look it up in media they are negative and companies cant speak out since they are in a blackout period before their earnings come out.

WickedSensitiveCrew

I bought shares in APO and KKR. Feels like something that needs 1-2 quarters of earnings to change narrative. Why do you think the narrative can shift sooner to bet on a specific time frame with options?

ApexTerminal

This is a cleaner framing than the usual “AI winners vs losers” trade. The alt managers are not just generic financials here; they sit close to the financing layer behind the data-center / power / infrastructure buildout. The key is that a lot of AI capex cannot be financed only on hyperscaler balance sheets forever. Once you get into multi-year data-center construction, power procurement, structured credit, private credit, project finance and sale-leaseback style structures, firms like APO/BX/KKR/TPG become part of the plumbing. So the trade is not simply “AI panic is overdone.” It is more like: if AI spend continues but public equity investors rotate away from obvious semiconductor beta, the capital-formation layer may be under-owned relative to its role in the cycle. The risk is credit. These names will still trade badly if spreads widen or if the market starts questioning data-center collateral values. But as a second-order AI expression, the setup is more interesting than chasing the same crowded hardware names.

creemeeseason

Anyone have thoughts on buying LEAOs on some of the asset managers (OWL, KKR, etc.)?

cryptohorn

"Thoma Bravo handed the keys to Medallia over to its lenders yesterday. Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, and Antares are taking control of a company Thoma Bravo bought for $6.4 billion in 2021, wiping out roughly $5.1 billion in equity held by the firm and its co-investors" Sounds like wsb levels of losing money

Used_Bag6446

I wonder what these folks think their edge in the trading market is. There are funds with a foreign desk that specialize in studying these conflicts on top of all the data and models they utilize. I was watching an interview the other day with former general Petreus on Iran. He is now a partner at KKR, huge investment firm. Stop with the 5 paragraph essay that was ghost written by AI on why the market should be in shambles. You’re just pulling the handle of the slot machine every day and hoping to be one of the lucky ones.

Stocks_N_Bondage

- Current calls are SNDK GLW FLEX STX - Current puts are NOW SAP CRM KKR

slingingfunds

You linked an article of Jamie Dimon ‘warning’ that credit losses will be larger than anticipated. He wrote that in his shareholder letter. You realize banks like JPM compete with direct lenders like BX, KKR, OWL, Apollo, etc? You realize they’ve lost that war and would gladly win that business back if they could? You realize JPM just launched a PC fund of their own? All of this to say, Jamie Dimon is incentivized to portray PC in a negative light. I’m not saying there’s not bad actors, and I’m not saying there won’t be defaults (going from nothing to something is always a story) but this entire conversation started because you said ‘dumbass’ retail is going to save everyone from illiquidity issues. ✌️

IvoryTowerResident

>please explain what this is It is basically a loan but not in the public market. Which mean you can trade this loan. A private credit fund (Morgan stanley, JP Morgan, Blackrock, Blackstone , Blue Owl, Apollo and etc) will rise moeny to start a fund with the objectives of making loans to companies (public or private). These loans cannot be traded on the public market like other loans that have ratings on them. If you have a bloomberg terminal you can look up loans that public companies have and their prices along with their yields. Private credit funds typically return 10% or more depending on the fund. >why it's significant Most companies that need these loans are companies with strong and preditable cash flows such as software companies. With the recent SAASpocalyse, these companies are no longer worth the money they are worth. Investors also believe their ability to repay said loans are impacted which means the face value of the debt in the private credit fund need to be written down (since they riskier and investors might not get full face value). Since these are not traded on the public market, they cannot be written down because no one knows what the fair value is. Some investors are spooked and want out. Typically these funds offer 5% redemption each quarter but now as the investor confidence is shaken, more than 5% of the ppl want out but funds are not liquid so they cant just sell the debt. So they block redemption, this is viewed very negatively. Besides software companies, a lot of data center buildout are also funded by private credit. So this impact them. >and how retail can profit off it? Many of these private credit funds are traded in the public market with a illiquidity discount attached to them. So if you believe these loans will pay back full face value, it is a great time to buy them because yields are very high since these funds are discounted. They currently yield around 13% Ticker name : $OBDC (Blue Owl), $ARCC (Ares)**,** $FSK (KKR), $TCPC (Blackrock)

InvestAISavvy

This is the part of the rate cycle that doesn't get enough attention. Private credit boomed because low rates pushed everyone into alternatives hunting for yield. Now rates are staying elevated — we just got a 178K jobs print this morning on a 60K consensus, two-year yield at 3.84% — and the exits are jammed. The 5% redemption honoring is what gets me too. That's not a fund under pressure, that's a fund telling investors they fundamentally can't sell. When you see that disconnect between what investors want out and what the fund can deliver, it usually means the underlying assets can't be liquidated at anything close to marked value. OWL down 40% year-to-date is the equity market's way of saying the same thing. The bigger question is how much of this is Blue Owl specific vs. a private credit problem broadly. Apollo, Ares, Blackstone, KKR all sliding tells you it's not just one fund.

FullOf_Bad_Ideas

>Apollo, Ares, Blackstone, KKR, and BlackRock all slid in tandem. the whole market is down, but it's Blue Owl that's impacted the most. They are famous for being the easiest lenders in the sector, so it's not very surprising that they got hit hard. Where's fractional reserve lending when you need it? It would have solved most of those issues and it would make return nicer.

Sybertron

>Let’s hope investor stupidity doesn’t leak into the rest of the markets though. Well thankfully this only impacts Apollo, Ares, Blackstone, KKR, and BlackRock; and they are only worth a paltry $17.64 trillion.

Bilbo_Butthole

PE is illiquid by nature. That’s why withdrawals are being limited. Similar to banks and how the reserve ratio is 10%. People saying the Blackstone’s, KKR’s, and Blue Owl’s of the world going bankrupt are retarded

Phuffu

Nah stocks like KKR and APO are buys

Wealthy-investor

Literally Apollo and KKR are well diversified entity that are completely way more protected and crash proof with way more cash available to deploy right now than most people that don’t do research realise. It’s literally crazy to me that people still think they only give credit to slme unsolvable companies and that’s it lmfao. Nothing you said is showing with the dry powder ready to deploy of both companies. Do a CHAT GPT again and write why they will get out of that crisis.

Scary-Oven8260

Too late. APO KKR green this month tell you all that you need to know

Song-Potential

It’s ironic you mentioned KKR’s flagship BDC. just last week, Moody’s actually downgraded it to junk status (Ba1). Because their non accrual rate hit 5.5%, which is way higher than their peers. Their stock is currently trading at a 50% discount to its book value. If they were truly 'well-diversified' and safe, the market wouldn't be pricing them like a house on fire.

smahd55

None of what you said is true. Most provate credit funds are well diversified. This industry emerged because banks had to hit strict ratios making them derisk their balance sheets. Asset backed finance within these portfolios are a subclass, of which tends to outperform. See KKR’s BDC private credit fund.

Hanshautreinhart

KKR is an investment company that manages alternative asset classes like private equity. This could significantly increase their assets under management and the liquidity of these assets.

Hanshautreinhart

Time to buy KKR I guess.

callmesandycohen

I think the bigger concern is that all those petrodollars committed to Blackrock, Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, SoftBank for datacenter development just evaporated.

WickedSensitiveCrew

I been buying APO and KKR over BLK.

kjuneja

Here's a summary of the past three weeks: **The Trigger: Redemption Panic** Ares Management capped investor withdrawals from its $10.7 billion private credit fund at 5% after redemption requests surged to 11.6%. Apollo Global unveiled similar measures a day earlier. Blue Owl, Cliffwater, and others also scrambled to restrict withdrawals in recent weeks. [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/private-credit-defaults-loan-quality-debt-risk-systemic-ai-disruption.html) In early March, BlackRock restricted withdrawals on its $26 billion HPS Lending Fund, and Morgan Stanley received repurchase requests for 10.9% of shares in its North Haven Private Income fund. [Fortune](https://fortune.com/2026/03/14/private-credit-meltdown-how-wall-streets-blackstone-kkr-apollo-ares-blue-owl-investment-craze-panic/) **The Stock Wipeout** The selloff has erased over $265 billion in market cap across the sector. From their peaks, Apollo is down 41%, Blackstone 46%, Ares and KKR 48% each, while Blue Owl dropped by two-thirds. [Fortune](https://fortune.com/2026/03/14/private-credit-meltdown-how-wall-streets-blackstone-kkr-apollo-ares-blue-owl-investment-craze-panic/) **Why: AI + Defaults** Morgan Stanley warned default rates in private credit could surge to 8%, well above the historical 2-2.5% average, with pressure concentrated in software sectors vulnerable to AI disruption. Software makes up roughly 26% of direct lending exposure. [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/private-credit-defaults-loan-quality-debt-risk-systemic-ai-disruption.html) The private credit default rate hit 5.8% in early 2026, and distressed exchanges — where lenders quietly renegotiate rather than declare bankruptcy — accounted for 94% of all private credit downgrades over the past year. [FinancialContent](https://www.financialcontent.com/article/marketminute-2026-3-26-the-sputtering-flywheel-us-private-credit-faces-a-reckoning-as-distressed-exchanges-and-liquidity-gaps-explode) **The "Hidden" Problem** The crisis is defined not by high-profile bankruptcies but by a quieter trend: distressed exchanges involving payment-in-kind toggles, where interest is added to the principal rather than paid in cash, allowing struggling borrowers to delay reckoning. Rating agencies warn these rarely work long-term. [FinancialContent](https://www.financialcontent.com/article/marketminute-2026-3-26-the-sputtering-flywheel-us-private-credit-faces-a-reckoning-as-distressed-exchanges-and-liquidity-gaps-explode) **Regulatory Response** In late March, the Financial Stability Oversight Council voted to publish new guidance on nonbank financial company designations, signaling a shift toward "activities-based" oversight targeting opaque fund structures. [FinancialContent](https://www.financialcontent.com/article/marketminute-2026-3-26-the-sputtering-flywheel-us-private-credit-faces-a-reckoning-as-distressed-exchanges-and-liquidity-gaps-explode) **Is It Systemic?** Morgan Stanley analysts said an 8% default spike would be "significant but not systemic," pointing to lower leverage among private credit funds compared with 2008. [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/private-credit-defaults-loan-quality-debt-risk-systemic-ai-disruption.html) But Bank of America analysts said there was "misinformation" causing markets to overreact, and no major lender has actually collapsed yet. [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/25/business/private-credit-public-problem) The consensus: not a 2008 repeat, but a painful reset for an industry that oversold itself as a near-zero-loss asset class.

Stocks_N_Bondage

Main positions, as a group about delta neutral, but questioning my apparent cognitive dissonance on some at the moment. - Calls: AAOI • LITE • GLW - Puts: COIN •  NOW • APP • SAP • KKR • SMCI *Disclaimer: for entertainment value only, also see the book **"Throwing and Catching Falling Knifes For Dummies."**..*

groceriesN1trip

These withdrawal restrictions are built into the agreement. Most illiquid alternative funds have these 5% of NAV per quarter withdrawal restrictions. This is part of the original agreement. The point you’re actually missing, and a greater contagion, is that Moody’s just rated KKR’s underlying assets in their private credit fund as Junk.  Putting the risk of private lending onto retail investors via alt funds is a problem. Institutions should hold that risk. Private lending onto retail/ private credit is very opaque because they’re not relying on external 3rd parties to value this debt like what is done with private real estate funds.

Street-Badger

On the other hand the price action for the publicly traded private equity firms are down like 40% on the year, and a KKR fund just got rated junk.  None of the loans in these funds are marked to market so someone said these funds get to grade their own homework.  There is more to it than ‘business as usual’.

LordFaquaad

Ok. Darfur was declared a genocide by the US. Even the UN said that it was a path to genocide and it went to the ICC. [Darfur | Holocaust Encyclopedia](https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/darfur#:~:text=The%20United%20States'%20Determines%20Genocide,and%20the%20Sudanese%20government%20responsible.) Even putting that aside, do you think that banks don't take positions in Israel lol? [Some of the biggest US banks have underwritten billions of dollars in Israeli bonds! - Workers Revolutionary Party](https://wrp.org.uk/features/some-of-the-biggest-us-banks-have-underwritten-billions-of-dollars-in-israeli-bonds/) If PLTR is complicit in genocide by selling Israel weapons then so is Lockheed, Raytheon, Boeing, banks, KKR, Blackrock, etc for funding and aiding it. At that point you may as well divest completely from the stock market. Hell McDonalds was openly supporting and supply IDF soldiers food. Why palantir and not the actual financiers of the war? Or i'm guessing its because you ahve positions in banks and want to justify it

Stocks_N_Bondage

Not sure the last time my total port was net negative delta. It is now, LOL. My calls on AAOI, LITE, GLW are printing today—but if it wasn't for those photonics plays, I'd be full port puts. My spring put collection: COIN, APP, CRM, WDAY, GDDY, NOW, NTSK, KKR, DOCS Se you all at the bottom of the hill!

dqdg

AI: * Secondary discounts widening (<85%) * BDC NAVs dropping * BX / KKR / APO selling off hard * Real estate marks catching down

tlk666

So my Ai said this cuh, ong you a cuck You’re stacking a lot of real risks—but the mistake is assuming they all **resolve in the same bearish direction at the same time**. Markets rarely give you that clean outcome. Let’s build the **actual bull case**, not a strawman. --- # The Bull Case for U.S. Stocks (mid–late 2020s) ## 1) The U.S. can run higher debt than you think Yes, debt/GDP may exceed World War II levels. But here’s what matters more than the number: * The U.S. issues debt in **its own currency** * That currency is the global reserve: United States dollar * Global system still runs on dollar liquidity (trade, energy, collateral) Japan has run **250%+ debt/GDP for decades** without collapse. **Bull takeaway:** High debt ≠ bearish by itself. It often leads to: * financial repression * moderate inflation * asset inflation (stocks ↑) --- ## 2) “Everyone is fully invested” is usually a myth That Reddit take is classic late-cycle thinking—but positioning data rarely supports “no buyers left.” Reality: * Pension funds still need to allocate * Sovereign wealth funds still deploy * Retail panic → creates buyers on dips * Corporations themselves = **largest buyers via buybacks** Companies like: * Apple * Microsoft are constant **structural demand** for equities. **Bull takeaway:** There is always a marginal buyer—especially when prices drop. --- ## 3) Stagflation is possible—but not the base case You’re right: stagflation would be toxic. But here’s the pushback: * Labor market is **cooling, not collapsing** * Productivity may rise from tech adoption * Supply-side improvements (reshoring, energy) If inflation trends from \~3–4% → \~2.5–3%: → the Federal Reserve can still: * cut gradually * ease financial conditions We don’t need 0% rates again. Just **less tight policy** is bullish. --- ## 4) AI doesn’t need perfection to justify valuations You’re assuming AI = bubble unless it becomes AGI. That’s too binary. Even without AGI: * automation of **10–20% of white-collar tasks** * software margin expansion * cost reduction across industries Companies like: * Microsoft * NVIDIA don’t need sci-fi outcomes—just **incremental productivity gains**. **Bull version of your point:** Even if 80% of AI spend is inefficient… the 20% that works can justify massive value. --- ## 5) Private credit stress ≠ systemic collapse You’re right it’s stretched. But compare to 2008: * Banks are better capitalized * Risk is **more distributed** * No single asset (like subprime MBS) dominates Firms like: * Apollo Global Management * KKR may take hits—but that’s not the same as system failure. **Bull takeaway:** This is more likely a **contained credit cycle**, not a collapse. --- ## 6) The U.S. still dominates globally (this matters more than macro doom) Relative performance > absolute perfection. Compare the U.S. to: * China → property crisis, demographics * Europe → slow growth, fragmentation Where does global capital go? → still the U.S. Because: * deepest capital markets * rule of law * tech leadership * innovation pipeline **Bull takeaway:** Even if the U.S. is flawed, it’s still the **best house in a bad neighborhood**. --- ## 7) Earnings can grow even in a “meh” economy This is where most bears get caught. Stocks follow: >earnings × multiple Even if multiples compress: * cost cutting * automation * pricing power → earnings can still grow S&P 500 is dominated by high-margin firms now, not industrials. --- ## 8) Inflation can actually be bullish (to a point) Moderate inflation (2–4%): * inflates nominal GDP * boosts corporate revenues * reduces real debt burden This is literally the environment where equities often outperform bonds. --- ## 9) Buybacks + passive flows = structural tailwind This didn’t exist in 2000 or 1929 at the same scale. Drivers: * 401(k) auto-investing * index funds (constant inflows) * corporate buybacks This creates a **persistent bid under the market**. --- ## 10) Your SaaS/VC argument is half right—but incomplete Yes: * multiples compressed * bad startups will die But: * survivors become **more profitable** * competition gets wiped out * capital reallocates to winners That’s actually bullish long-term. --- # The real bull case in one sentence You don’t need a perfect economy— you just need: * moderate growth * controlled inflation * no systemic crisis …and stocks grind higher. --- # Where your thesis could be right To keep it real (not just bullish spin), your view wins if: * inflation stays >4% AND growth collapses * private credit causes forced deleveraging * AI capex fails to produce returns * policy mistake by the Federal Reserve That’s a **specific combo**, not guaranteed. --- # Final pushback (intellectual sparring) Right now your stance is: >“Too many things are broken → market must go down” The market doesn’t work like that. It prices: * probability * timing * relative outcomes If even **2–3 of your bearish points don’t materialize**, equities can still outperform cash. https://preview.redd.it/p7wy12mfdhqg1.jpeg?width=1106&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7a7958457ae05d80cf447cf19caea050e593b3d7

PrthReddits

US is on track to surpass WW2 debt to GDP ratio in next few years easily All US fund managers are balls deep invested at ATH lol with little money to buy dips: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/VT68UeYQXR Stagflation is on the horizon (inflation is sticky and looks like it will continue like even disregarding the Iran war which is gonna accelerate it + we have job losses now in the official numbers, though anyone trying to get a new job in 2025 knew the economy was cooked already)... This means Fed cannot do QE very easily and even if they do you cannot really print your way out of Stagflation very easily, plus I doubt QE will be a magic bullet that stops mass layoffs and white collar offshoring in America and this whole K shaped economy that is teetering despite consumer spending being 70% of GDP BTW!!! Private credit and venture capital is in the shit hole being over leveraged to the balls on GPT wrapper dogshit startups OR on SaaS that is being rerated lower from 48493944x PE ratio (see like Atlassian stock, Figma stock, Asana stock, basically any fucking SaaS stock even MSFT or NOW which are blue chip SaaS lol)... (look at $KKR or $APO stock and all of YC's and 16z's and etc.'s investments) Circular financing deals and debt that must see a return eventually for AI bubble spending, I'm talking both the AI labs and all the infrastructure providers (if this debt has to be paid back, stocks that were at ATH will be sold to do so btw)... You can't use ChatGPT or Claude forever while burning tens of billions of $$$ annually... Uber and Spotify and all these unicorns did it for years, but the magnitude of their capex burn into an oven to do so was nothing compared to OpenAI and Anthropic.... Mango is in office, non zero chance bro gets a stroke randomly in next 4y or like does other regarded shit to fk the economy over more and accelerate all of above said reasons Tell me what is bullish? Like genuinely idk The only thing i can think of is stocks are not as overpriced as in 1928 or 1999... Otherwise I don't know legit

Cold_Respond_7656

IRGC has shared list of US companies they will target in Middle East Lockheed- Boeing- AWS- Microsoft- Exxon- NSO- KKR- Boston group- Oracle- Citi- Bain & co- Trafigura- “'We warn the American regime to evacuate all American industries in the region. We ask people living near industrial factories in which Americans hold shares to leave those areas so they are not harmed,' said the Guard”

Asleep_Emphasis69

the big boy Alt asset managers are trading for like 0.5 PEG ratio which hasn’t been the case since covid times…Oversold $BX $KKR $BAM $APO

Coloradodreaming1

Software has sucked big time. Financials too, especially the private equity companies like KKR, APO, ARES, BLK, BX. Man they look like buys at 40% or the like down YTD and they pay dividends if I could just go against my instinct that these company stocks are falling knives.

Jericho3434

Look at private credit stocks like Blue Owl, Apollo, KKR. They have been limiting redemptions. Also, they are heavily invested in saas.

alfred250

Long story short go 3-6 months out, go best in breed, BX, KKR, Apollo. I dont even think a bailout is necessary, this is very overblown. DM me and i will send you my DD

BenisSpaghetti

Everyday KKR is red I'm happy. 😁

Warm_Pianist4879

its a private equity thing probably, gotta look into what publicly traded private equities (like KKR/CG) might have a stake

BenisSpaghetti

Every day that KKR is down is a good day for me. 😇

EvolvingDior

That's because firms like KKR are protected from the bad investments their funds make. They just get less money from their investors when the fund doesn't meet it's performance goals.

ThreeSupreme

Hmm... Guess U weren't around in 2008, huh? # No safety net: Why private credit faces it first real moment of truth **Provided by Dow Jones** \- Private credit is easy to enter but hard to exit. Retail investors suddenly seeking their money back could trigger a financial crisis. A spiral of illiquidity, forced selling, markdowns, and intense risk deleveraging could emerge. Sound familiar? It happened with securitization markets during the **2007-08 financial crisis**. The recent selloff of Blue Owl Capital's (OWL) stock after a redemption at one of its retail private-credit funds has become the poster child for increasing anxiety about the health of the private-credit market. Private credit has grown rapidly in recent years - approaching $2 trillion - and it has never been tested through a full recession or highly volatile financial-market stress. Private credit does not have the financial backstop of the U.S. Treasury or the Federal Reserve, unlike most banks. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently warned after a pair of private credit-backed companies declared bankruptcy that problems in private credit are rarely isolated. **Wall Street braces for a private credit meltdown** The fault line exposed now is that private credit is being offered to retail investors and wealthy individuals whose investment objectives are very different from sophisticated institutional investors. These new investors will quickly line up to get their money back, effectively forcing sales of illiquid assets, as in the case of Blue Owl. Shares of Blue Owl hit a 52-week low earlier this month, as did shares of Blackstone (BX). Other major firms including Carlyle Group (CG), KKR (KKR), Apollo Global Management (APO) and Ares Management (ARES) were also caught in the selloff. Private credit-related defaults, particularly among private equity-backed companies, have accelerated significantly in 2025 and early 2026. According to a March 6, 2026, report from Fitch Ratings, the U.S. Private Credit Default Rate hit a **record 9.2%** in 2025, following a previous record of 8.1% in 2024, with 38 defaults recorded among 28 different borrowers.  

WickedSensitiveCrew

APO, KKR and BX look interesting. Im leaning toward buying some APO. As they have been shifting their a lot of their AUM to perpetual capital.

dansdansy

Private equity- KKR, OWL, APO etc. Though maybe not these three, I really think eventually some of them may go under.

_hiddenscout

If you want to be contrarian and buy into pain, APO and KKR are selling off.

Rare-ish_Birb

All the private equity together have $ 2+ trillion in illiquid, underwater SAAS portfolio companies rn, with no hope of IPO to offload. The clearing event would be writing down those companies to zero. Bye bye Softbank, KKR, Blackstone, Appollo, Carlyle, GS.

Difficult-Level7038

Put/call ratio for KKR makes me wanna puke

Silverfin113

Just missed it maybe KKR worth buying still.

ideletedmyaccount04

some of you are beating the entire private credit market. Carlyle -25% Apollo -39% Ares -42% Blackstone -43% KKR -44% Blue Owl -61%

persua

I like the alts managers at these prices (APO, KKR)

leomeng

Surprisingly I’ve been able to bail on CRM NOW BX KKR with very little damage in overnight. I bought all near the Friday close price. Would rather get a scrape wound now than risk crazy meltdown.

LarryStink

I think Apollo, KKR, and Blue Owl said the same thing just recently

Commercial_Deer_7114

As a Europoor myself, I have to say we deserve all the bad policy we are getting as the average Europoor is completely regarded. It is illegal for EU citizens to buy US and Canadian ETF's and REITS, so for example it is a crime to invest in Boston Pizza or KKR BRD's. When you point out how absurd that is, the entire European left is ready to erase your family lineage going back to the first single-cell organisms. People that otherwise are too lazy to even collect all of their wellfare checks.

IBangTokyoWife

I've always had trouble valuing private equity. I like BX KKR APO but their revenue and earnings are so dependent on them finding diamonds in the rough. Sometimes they get several all at once and sometimes they don't get any for a while. How do you determine when they're cheap or expensive? Recurring revenue is pretty low

Bagholder71

Companies possibly interested in buying PYPL.. Confirmed interest: Stripe Analyst / media speculation: JPMorgan Chase, American Express, Revolut, private equity firms (Apollo, KKR), Walmart 

jkswift1776

ParaSky has the same law firm as KKR did when buying RJR Nabisco.

Much_Candle_942

Just a narrative..  KKR, OWL's own management is loading up on their stocks like crazy 

SuperSimpleSam

KKR stacked it with poor earnings for a hefty drop.

KingRegardothe2nd

>Wall Street opened the week under heavy pressure as risk sentiment deteriorated on AI-related credit concerns and fresh trade uncertainty amid the feud between President Donald Trump and the Supreme Court. >The blue-chip index was weighed down by sharp losses in financial names. A wave of selling hit asset managers after concerns emerged around a private credit fund managed by Blue Owl Capital Inc. (NYSE:OWL). The firm announced it is liquidating $1.4 billion in assets to raise money to pay out individual investors Apollo Global Management Inc. (NYSE:APO) sank 6.6% on the day, marking its worst session since Liberation Day. Blackstone Inc. (NYSE:BX) slid 6.7% and has now dropped 16% over the past three sessions, its steepest three-day decline since March 2020, touching the lowest level since late 2023. Ares Management Corp. (NYSE:ARES) fell 6.3% KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE:KKR) tumbled 8.3%, extending its monthly loss to 20%, the worst stretch since 2015. The weakness spilled into established financial heavyweights. American Express (NYSE:AXP) dropped 7.4%, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) lost 3.5% and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) retreated 4.5%. For the broader Financials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLF) it’s the worst day since early April 2025.

dvdmovie1

Didn't OWL go public via SPAC? Hasn't been the greatest investment before this and there's considerable risk - names like this are always going to be 10 slow steps forward 7-8 quick steps backwards. I'd rather KKR near April 2025 lows if I wanted private equity names.

506Investor

I would add that knowing about new RIA funds is one of the biggest advantage to a private group for accredited and QP's only. Many of the new interval PE Secondary funds have a first month pops of 10% and a 20% first year return before reverting to the mean. Getting in day one is the key. The beauty of the interval fund is its semi liquid and you can get out after the 20% year one return. Then rinse and repeat with the KKR's of the world. The 506 Group had 9 in 2025 that averaged close to a 2% a month return. Invest direct with the sponsor and not fool around with feeder funds if the RIA can negotiate lower minimums

GSPointerDad

Ahhh…sorry! But their new CEO 🤩…and they retain a chunk of Wella proceeds when KKR takes it public.

BenisSpaghetti

How long until we wake up to some large institution failing to pay their bills? Our parent company (KKR) levers themselves to the hilt. Even 1-2% misses send the managers running. 🥴

WickedSensitiveCrew

APO was [shorting software companies](https://www.ft.com/content/137bfe82-3e52-418b-9d4f-930978b2532e) back in Dec 2025. Funny that they got punished by the PE firms holding these software companies, even though this news has been public for a couple months lol. Literally the bear case everyone’s talking about APO called it back in Dec 2025. I guess we will get more info from KKR on their earnings.

WickedSensitiveCrew

I think the exposure by KKR is overblown. APO was [shorting software companies](https://www.ft.com/content/137bfe82-3e52-418b-9d4f-930978b2532e) back in Dec 2025. Interesting they got punished by the PE firms hold software stocks when that public news been out for a couple months now lol.

_hiddenscout

Really interesting tidbit I learned the other day about private equity. A lot of them are stuck with a bunch of businesses they basically can no longer sale lol. Since they acquired a lot when rates where low. Also interesting how I think KKR has a lot of SaaS business too, which probably won't IPO now. Really interesting dynamics.

johtuleso

My next buy limit: Apollo 115, KKR 95, Msft 403… looks like we are not going there

No_Zookeepergame_27

Anyone bought KKR ahead of earnings tomorrow?

RolledForCredit

I’m buying some alts this morning (KKR, BX, ARES). I think this notion that “anthropic kills software therefore kills alt portfolios” is wayyy overdone. Everything I see shows that the SaaS cos are actually still doing just fine, they’ve just been de-rated. Falling valuations for software cos doesn’t necessarily mean falling revenues (at portcos), it just means that the market isn’t willing to pay as much for their earnings. One could argue that perhaps future growth rates or margins are overstated to the extent that vibe coded solutions make dents there , but that’s about it. So I don’t see massive defaults arising from this. I think this is especially true for things like cybersecurity; as if any real business would go with a vibe-coded solution over PANW or CRWD; lol. I'm regarded, so DYOR, but these are my thoughts.

Good-Traffic-875

Why did KKR drop 10% in the news of the takeover STT GDC? 

johtuleso

Kind of… bought some more of KKR and Apollo today. We will see how far down will we meet

AluminiumCaffeine

why is KKR down -10% did they become a saas company when I wasnt looking?

thalassamikra

Private credit KKR OWL in shambles and CRWV barely down for the day? What else are these private credit funds doing besides datacenter anyway?