KRE

Rare-ish_Bird

Somebody has to make $$ on WOLF....might as well be you. I filled up the boat with science and re-shoring drug tools TMO, DHR, A. Have KRE 56p for FOMC tomorrow. So many good trades with VIX over 20.

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 56p p p p p printed

scorchie

I’m not going to post my core shorts for 2 reasons: 1.) they’d look absolutely degenerate if you don’t fully buy into my thesis, so you’d lack the conviction to hold (some 5s rated funds, safe haven’s, etc) and 2.) I bought them cheap in march, they’re expensive now and tbh.:. i’m not confident they’ll payout even if I’m right at this point, fraud is rampant. XLRE/XLF/XRT naked short, regional banks (IAT/KRE), holding companies (BX/ARCC/etc.)… tbh, open the prospects for SCHD, or similar… they’re full of shit co’s I expect to default. Others would take too much explanation, and if you hood a similar belief you’re already most likely in them. dyor, not advice, but enough people upvote I figured I’d throw a bone… but I must emphasize: you need convection in the underlying structural thesis rooted in the credit markets, or else you’ll paper hand these and lose. if it was easy, everyone would be in it. Whatever you do, stay safe.

_WhatchaDoin_

Yeah, I handwaved that a bit. Let’s remove the box and the withdrawal for a moment. Also remember that each broker have different margin requirements (some much more strict, for example IKBR). With TOS which is more lax, if you invest $100k in some standard ETF, like $KRE, your margin impact is 30%, which means you have $100k -  $30k available, to trade something else or withdraw some of it. If you do a triple leveraged ETF, it is 75% (so 25% left). If you are long options, it is 100%. If you are short option, it is some other % (depending). Higher vol stock would even have higher than that. Additionally, the margin requirements can change for the worse at any time (usually when your portfolio is stressed already), and with higher volatility. Accounting for all of that, and the fact you need to withstand standard stock movements, you can only withdraw a small amount of your portfolio before it is liquidated. Again the box is just an interest rate optimization. No broker will allow you to have a $500k portfolio, keep it and withdraw 75% of that. The margin loan becomes a double whammy in your margin power. Even 50% is a stretch (unless you have a contract with the broker). The 25-30% is standard, but has some risks (especially with the current market).

ssralf

KRE calls paid for this fine lobster 🦞

ssralf

Had KRE calls up 150% in 2 days 🥱

Rare-ish_Bird

I have KRE poots tho.

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE poots for bank earnings, IWM calls for random tweets in the middle of happy hour. That's it. Go forth and multiply.

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE poots for bank earnings, IWM calls for random tweets in the middle of happy hour. That's it. Go forth and multiply.

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 52p p p p printing

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 48p p p p p printing

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 48p or 45p, for April 17 or April 25. Mix em and match em however you like. Regional banks cannot win under an scenario.

RandomGuyNamedChris

regional banks are going broke, powell said it a year ago way before mango, buy KRE puts

crazier_ed

KRE is down a fair bit ...

Rare-ish_Bird

IWM and KRE, small caps and regional banks.

NW-McWisconsin

Look at the holdings of XLF, KRE and XLU.... Good bets... Slowly buy in...

No-Structure-2434

Honestly, I think Powell had no real choice but to hold rates. Inflation is still way too sticky — the last Core PCE print actually ticked up by 0.1% vs February. On top of that, tariffs just got reintroduced across the board, with a 10% base rate and reciprocal tariffs coming from Canada (25%) and China (34%). That’s inflationary, no way around it. If the Fed cut now, it would basically be pouring fuel on the fire. Markets are clearly feeling the pressure. VIX hit 44 today, SPY dropped nearly 10% in a few days, and regional banks (KRE) got hammered — down over 10%. Liquidity is getting tight too: the repo facility has drained down to just $196B from $2.3T not that long ago. That’s a big red flag. Then there’s the economic data — unemployment’s creeping up (4.2%), auto and mortgage delinquencies are climbing, and over 9 million student loan borrowers are behind on payments. Consumer confidence has now dropped five months in a row, which has historically preceded every recession since the 1950s. Even the Fed's GDP outlook is split — Atlanta Fed is projecting -3.7% for Q1, while the NY Fed still sees +2.8%. That kind of divergence usually means someone’s very wrong. So no, I don’t expect a rate cut any time soon unless something *really* breaks. If inflation keeps creeping and tariffs push prices higher, the Fed might even have to tighten again. Personally, I think they’re bluffing with the “1–2 cuts later this year” — unless we get a credit event or a massive labor market shift, I don’t see it happening.

Miserable_Message330

Regional banks KRE -10% That should be alarming to people

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 50p p p p printing

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 54p p p p p printing

Jumpinmycar

KRE is down, surprisingly.

RandomGuyNamedChris

Regional banks broke by end of year, Puts on KRE

ToiletSeatDreamer

Bought some deep OTM leap puts on KRE last year (2026 expiry) and have been averaging down ever since. Now have a big fat stack and waiting for the firework show.

AdOk6675

I've been watching KRE since late summer, definitely looking primed for a short position.

sol_beach

SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) iShares U.S. Regional Banks ETF (IAT) Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) First Trust Nasdaq Bank ETF (FTXO)

greytoc

Banks and finance sector are not necessarily the same thing. There is a financial sector ETF like XLF that holds banks and financial related companies if that's what you are looking for - top holding is BRK.B, JPM, V, MA. It also holds insurance companies, credit card companies, and brokerages. There is a regional bank ETF like KRE - these are regional banks not BHC (bank holding companies). So - a BHC like JPM, Wells, Citi will not be part of the fund.

UPnwuijkbwnui

SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF: KRE is so fucked. Just wait until tomorrow.

Rare-ish_Bird

Plays for this week: NVDA 129c KRE 62c CFG 45c UNH 460c SMCI 59c LMT shares HBAN shares MSFT shares SPY 600p Not a bull usually, except for this week....still some juice left for the war resolutions.

Rare-ish_Bird

Have calls on UNH and KRE. Otherwise, cash gang, waiting to see if we get dump continuation.

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 63c p p p p p printing 

Rare-ish_Bird

I trade boring poots and calls a week out, 1 strike above or below the ATM price depending on the prevailing 3 minute candle trends, RSI and MACD. Mostly MSFT, UNH, KRE, SPY, IWM, NVDA, TSM, GS, HBAN.

johannschmidt

Puts on KRE. I believe people are going to start losing confidence in our banking system and will start withdrawing tons of cash.

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 64p 02/21

ninjaschoolprofessor

What the hell I want my letter too damnit?!? I didn’t have 3,385 trades but I definitely YOLO’d away $500k on IWM and KRE last July/August.

Rare-ish_Bird

The way I trade options on every ETF....find the stock component with almost 100% correlation with the ETF trend and use RSI and MACD on the component stock to time entry and exit in the ETF options. In this case, HBAN as the stock to watch for 10 cent swings in share price, and 65p or 63c on KRE depending on the trend direction.

2MuchSend

Can you share your approach to trading KRE? What indicators do you rely most on or is it more about total market sentiment?

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 65p p p p printed

Shanknado

No need to be toxic lol. KRE barely beat VOO with a lot more risk. Glad it worked out for you.

2MuchSend

Yep. Should have moved on those KRE puts.

2MuchSend

KRE puts?? 64 strike? Too late? 63.50? Feel like that should have been the move yesterday. Not sure I want to hold that overnight today....

BushLov3r

You love playing KRE and IWM don’t u bird

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 64p p p p p printing *not holding for FOMC*

Rare-ish_Bird

IWM because FOMC, KRE because FOMC, SPY because well, tech rebound isn't real, GM: pos, TSM for Gyna invasion, and TSLA for earnings and upcoming feud with our president.

clearside

Would love that. KRE inside on the year but the month green. A little conflict. Hope we get to see some bank blood too.

Rare-ish_Bird

Day 16: Banked ~$ 8k, on SPY poots, IWM poots, KRE poots and TSM calls. YTD realized gains: ~ $ 48k Only 234 trading days left in 2025. 💋

BulletPlease

KRE breaking out. Financials and smol caps are en fuego.

clearside

$KRE has a wonderful bearish setup going into next year. Would love to see a banking crisis ASAP lol

PapaCharlie9

You have the basics about long straddles right and you are right that the premium up-front cost is a concern. I like to say that a straddle is a bet you pay for twice, but can only win once. I don't know what you mean byt "lots of anticipation" and why that would make premiums high or low. However, before we go further, why JPM? There's a pretty big assumption in this that JPM has some kind of highly correlated price move to a Fed decision. What proof do you have of that assumption? Why not go for the whole sector with XFL or KRE? Or trade interest rate futures directly?

Butholxplorer_69_420

What names are you checking out for this dip? I am looking at leaps for these Vrt, oracle, IWM, KRE, Spy, coin, adobe

john2557

KRE bank run when?

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 65p p p printed

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 65p 12/20

pingish

I was shorting it for a few months. \`KRE\` and \`IAT\` kept rising. I got out of the way.

VOO_bull_forever

shit. I had bought KRE/IWM in March 2023 and yeah sold in March 2023......... Fuck

CosmicSpiral

Lots of euphoria, especially in KRE. Earnings have been breaking down in the Russell 2000 since the beginning of the year.

SnS2500

AIRR, infrastructure MLPX, midstream energy infrastructure KBWB, big banks KRE, regional banks IAK, insurance

Slight_Awareness_769

Regional Banks KRE and Gold Miners GDX should beat inflation. I also have higher yield mining stocks (BHP, RIO), small cap plays (CALF) and some utilities (D, NEE). Definitely like XLP, but VDC has a larger COST holding and yield currently.

GraceBoorFan

My bad, was dyslexic and read KRE as XLE  Anyways, any personal long term PT on KRE?

tropicalia84

XLF and KRE making NVDA look like a flat line

Samjabr

buying a crap ton of KRE puts for Dec 20th, post rate decision. Fireworks incoming!

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE moves more than Ford, and you might actually win with poots when this financial baloon deflates. Regionals trading at 14 PE? Hahahahahaha

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 66p p p p printing

Rare-ish_Bird

During FOMC Q&A, if anyone asks JPow if he expects banking regulations / Capital requirements to be relaxed under the new regime, or if Basel end game will be paused, and he says *anything but* 'yes', all those banks that rose 10% yesterday will be back to pre-election share prices. Poots on JPM, CFG, HBAN and KRE ETF.

dimethylhyperspace

You want a real answer? Banks. Specifically, small ones on the KRE. But all banks should do and will probably outperform any AI stock over the next six months

Fit_Combination6988

now I need to go about my day knowing I could have been a millionaire had I full-ported KRE weeklies yesterday 

FunCranberry112122

Remember when you could have bought KRE at 35 less than two years ago? Yeah now it’s up 8% today at 63

CosmicSpiral

Just run long-duration calls on KRE.

Capable_Lime_2739

Was looking at ETF's with exposure to regional banks. Anybody able to explain the seemingly giant short interest in KRE? Looked earlier today and it's at 62%. With > $1B of assets, it's got me thinking there are some significant bettors expecting downside...

SexualDeth5quad

Yes, but are you making the maximum you can? I buy sector ETFs and dividend ETFs instead, and focus on individual stocks. Take ETFs like PPA, KRE, PSP, MLPX over the past year compared to only holding VOO in a coma. Massive growth *and* divs. Then CC ETFs like JEPQ, GPIX, BITO, GLDI (technically an ETN) for more divs, lots of choices that are all doing well compared to slow ass passive ETFs and boomer stocks. If a market segment slows down you can rebalance and the divs keep you alive, with VOO you are slowed down by the slow segments and you don't get *monthly* income. For stocks I put most into TSMC, Nvidia, Amazon, Raytheon, Broadcom, and a few others that are more risky like Cloudflare and Palantir, plus gas, electricity, and shipping. You can't get that kind of balance and performance from VOO.

AdOk6675

I'm pretty deep into KRE put LEAPS for Jan '26. Regional banks are struggling, and it looks like some of the bigger banks might be headed for trouble soon too.

plakio99

See you are right. But then you make some picks that work out insanely well and the dopamine hits you. I bought LEU, IONQ - both jumped 30+% and 20+% in last 2 days. I also bought ISRG few months and am now +34% (it jumped 6% AH based on earnings). I made 50% on KRE when it hit lows last year. I have also made only 9% on PayPal despite holding it for 1.5 years. That's not bad per see but VOO would have made me a LOT more. I am down on Intel. Overall I think I am beating the market slightly over last 2-3 years. But I have luck on my side, for now. So it feels like a fun game lol. However, I am not an idiot. So now every month I invest nearly 95% into various ETFs out of which 60% goes into VOO and VT. Rest into few sector ETFs. I invest into individual stocks only using leftover "fun money", when I see some opportunity. I also take profits sometimes (recently sold my KRE shares) and use that amount to buy other "fun" shares. This ensures that I am 95% responsible while also learning and playing the stock market.

jusjones314

6/10 of the top holdings of KRE report earnings on 10/17 if all of them report meh to shitty earnings KRE is going to crash to below 50. The remaining 4 report the day before, the day after and the 21st. 10/18 53P are cheap af for a lotto play with a (very little) bit of time for the daring folks here.

LarryStink

As a secondary note, yields moving higher will continue the downward pressure on KRE and therefor russel moves lower while sp500 and nasdick stay flat.

jusjones314

VIX rising, KRE declining, NKE reporting worst quarter ever (according to sources)... September and October switched places?

plakio99

IONQ jumped 20% on one single contract lol. I ain't complaining. I DCA'd down my average and am planning hold for over a decade. This means my portfolio has no losers except intel. I am honestly surprised - I did sell few at losses but nothing significant and held the losses for some like IONQ/PayPal etc but am now being rewarded for it ig. I also sold all my KRE shares - have made 45% + dividends. There's potentially upside from here but idk how likely that is and how soon. And SGOV gives me almost double the dividend, until I find a better place for that money. So cashing out all my profits. Planning to put some into uranium/solar or other energy stock/etf. But we'll see.

plakio99

What do you guys think about US regional banks? I don't know if I should sell my KRE shares or not. Honestly - I don't even how to value an ETF. How do you guys decide? I bought it at $38 - so I'm up about a nice 44% + whatever dividen I got in that time. But it has been stagnating at 55 and even tho it reached 60+ few years back, I don't know enough to decide if it can breach that again. I initially bought it simply as contrarian position - I knew that there's no way all regional banks are going to die and was willing to wait long enough for them to recover. Now it has recovered - but idk if it'll go higher. SGOV gives me \~5% dividend while this gives me \~3%. So I don't understand how to value a whole ETF. Any links/youtube vids or advice?

CaseEnvironmental824

REZ- I believe living realestate would keep going up. SOXX- i couldn't quite choose between the chip companies, and i think in the next year more money would flow to the industry, considering how businesses will to adapt to the new technology. ILF- With proximity to the USA and a market with higher capitalistic traits than alternative markets such as China, beaten down since before and during COVID, I'm betting this might be the era of the comeback (and i also like the diversification from the US). KWEB- E-commerce and the cloud are growing pretty fast, and China tends to lower valuations with their hobby of making people disappear and forcing "donations" to their goverment instead of returning money to investors. for those reasons my holding is probably short-term, but it feels like an uppertunity nonetheless. KRE- regional banks seem to have a less premium-pricing than big banks indices, while sometimes having higher growth prospects. *As a side note, i think it is very risky tagging ETF's as safer than stocks, because context matters a lot (coming from a Cathie Wood's "victim").

---Right--Tackle---

KRE: topped. Double top. IWM: topped. Double top. HYG: on its way to sub 70. SPY 450 EOY.

SubstantialAffect835

Short ORCL because it is due for a downtick. Long TLT and KRE. Hold fully hedged NVDA position.

AdOk6675

Regards like you are why I am comfortable with my KRE puts.

bersrghey

Small caps of PE of 3. Go ahead n get KRE if u dare

OrdinaryReasonable63

Regional banks are a ticking time bomb, I've looked into playing options on this but the options chains for individual banks are illiquid garbage (if they exist), and KRE options seem to be pricing it in already. Direct shorting is probably the most straight forward path here.

AlfrescoDog

You should look at GS, KRE, and DPST, too.

InevitableAd1139

Ha! Well, I did make a little coin on those puts last year, but steering clear of that one now. Actually looks like they’ve MAYBE pulled it off, enough to merge/get acquired reasonably anyway. OZK, FNB, RF, and KEY look shaky, options chains are nearly illiquid, though. TFC, ZION, BOKF, possibly. KRE has too many quality names that SKRE is tough play. Other than just steering clear, haven’t come up with a solid short, but feel like I should have by now, lol.

stoffel_bristov

Took fairly big short positions in the KRE and IWM this morning with October expiration.

EPLFantasyGuru

Bought QQQ calls before close yesterday expecting a bounce. Sold this morning, bought KRE, IWM, QQQ, TSLA puts, VIX calls. I do not think things will bounce tomorrow morning, holding through next week

EPLFantasyGuru

What are your positions? I’m currently swing trading late September/early October puts IWM spy qqq. Going to prob go heavy KRE puts for another regional bank meltdown

OnlyOVOandXO

KRE, ITB, IWN/IWM, FICO, GS - directly co related to interest rates

BulletPlease

KRE regionals up 5% is all you need to know.

Alans_Briefcase

KRE, regional banks with giant Shrek Cock.  +4.3%.

marbledcaramel

KRE 👆👉

TwoCrustyCorndogs

I'm guessing the odds that this whole japan thing hasn't fucked over at least a regional bank or 2 is zero. KRE puts out the next 2 weeks are looking juicy. 

skin_flute_player

Holy fuk KRE, banks getting gaped in all the holes right now.

thezenunderground

I think if we take Friday at face value, we need to expect that the market is going to act in preparation for a recession, regardless of whether one is coming or not. I of all people am hoping for a gap fill reversal of the spy, early in the week, but I think until we establish any kind of real upward momentum, any price movement of the indices needs to be viewed in the framework of establishing a higher low. Evidence: - The vix rose above 20 friday, anything above an 18 generally signals a more meaningful drop than a simple correction -The SPX and NDX not only are losing the moving averages, but they now seem to be acting as resistance, and the selling action is coming in on skrong volume. -The RSI on SPX, QQQ, and DIA are all in beatdown territory, but still not oversold by any means - The sectors that did the best on Friday were TLT(long dated bonds), Utilities, and Real Estate. This is classic defensive posturing. - We actually saw the KRE(small banks) and oil stocks tank. One would think in a rate cut environment, this would be bullish for these stocks, but only in an economic environment is strengthening and consumer spending is increasing. And if we look at these technical indicators, we have to ask if the macro-data is backing up the movements. Jobs data missed completely, coming in at 114k instead of the expected 175k, indicating the economy is weakening. Big tech revenues are coming in light weight. I do think its important to realize that these giant moves are made by hedge funds, who have very different priorities than the average retail trader/investor. Do I think its time to sell everything and go to cash/bonds. No not yet. But I do think it's important to realise that this card is now on the table, and to make decisions within the framework of a recesssion being a possibility. There are some real line-in-the-sand moments moving forward. Both SPX and NDQ are approaching major structure on the weekly time frame. Right now, as shitty as everything has been, we are still in an uptrend. Hell, the weekly SPY chart is just now putting in its \*first\* red bar on the MACD. What we don't want to see is the monthly charts start to put in lower highs/lows. In the meantime, I'm gonna be selectively buying the dips, holding on to core positions, trimming some fat and putting it into the TLT and boring boomer companies like Procter and Gamble. I'm expecting tech to not have a good time moving forward, but I'm also not selling those positions until we get clear indicators that shit is going to stay bad for the foreseeable future.

SirBobPeel

People sell ETFs and the ETF fund managers have to sell components of those ETFs. The bank ETFs were way down today and yesterday. KRE is down almost 10% in two days. KBE -9%

ninjaschoolprofessor

No. This sell off started on 12-July when institutional funds sold off billions of QQQ and reinvested in IWM and VOO/SPY. It was all over the news then and continues to be sprinkled out there. The tech sell off will most likely continue until mid October when the stock market sell off normally happens every year. Even when a tech / AI stock performs well it’s not likely to recover to all time highs within the next few months. Part of this is due to the lack of over the top 200% gain expectations that we’ve had on stocks like NVDA over the last 1.5 years and the other part is the lack of ROI from huge CapEx spending on AI related technology. If you’re holding Mag7 stocks and don’t mind bag holding for 6+ months you’re probably fine. Personally I want to put my money to work and I’m betting on a neutral FOMC interest rate decision today and I’m buying calls on IWM, KRE, and XHB as these all stand to gain substantially over the next 2-3 months. After this I’ll have to evaluate if home builders, the Russell 2000, and regional banking are still worth it. For anyone reading that isn’t an options player yet, you can also take advantage of 3x leveraged ETFs TNA, DPST, and NAIL which loosely map to the non-leveraged IWM, KRE, and XHB.

plakio99

RITM has been such a great buy. Over last month it has gone by 7% and overall I am up 32% in it overall. And it gives 9% dividend. Really solid buy - well not anymore I suppose. KRE has also been great. Paypal not so much but today gave some hope. But tech has been getting hammered lately :/

askepticoptimist

I bought in after the Silicon Valley Bank scare and have mostly seen the segment as undervalued on irrational fears. Now I think big banks are closer to fairly valued, so although I don't foresee alot of additional gains, I think they have a fairly safe floor. However, since I anticipate mostly sideways movement, I've sold alot of my positions and rotated into more beaten down stuff. I think regionals (i.e. KRE) still have some appreciation left to occur after the recent runup, but they do come with added risk, as they would bear the brunt of any commercial loan fallout.

KinseyVapor

Happening right now on KRE

KinseyVapor

Didnt Sold some IWM calls at about +.35% earlier and Bought some KRE on the dip litterly printing right now saved my ass love this market.