KRE

Jordykins850

I have DE, LEN, HD & KRE puts open right now. If you’re somewhat bearish on *parts* of the economy, these are very good choices. Deere - holder of many souring loans, impacted badly by tariff policy on both ends of supply/demand, impacted poorly by immigration policy as well, a traditional cyclical that now looks materially weaker than rival (CAT) and simply trades at a huge premium for no reason. Lennar - it’s simply the weakest looking home builder in a crashing housing market. It’s impacted poorly by policy. They gave up margin to keep sales flowing. Execs *HAVE NOT* sold shares. Pretty much the only ticker related to housing where execs have not dumped. I think, under the hood, it could be so bad that that’s the reason they have not dumped. Home Depot - trades too high, impacted poorly by admin policy, housing crashing. This one is the biggest softball of bunch for just an immediate and quick 10-15% pullback. KRE - regional banks are extremely fragile and have been pumping for no reason. PNC had to swoop in and pick up a FAILING BANK over the weekend. While Home Depot is the most obvious for what you see on the surface.. regionals is the most obvious if you’ve deep dived how bad those CRE and re-performing loans look 👀 Now we know we’re seeing less workers. Their books look worse and worse every day. If you want financials/bank exposure in your port, there is literally not one reason to own a regional except for the fact you might drive pass the logo on your daily commute. Shit is bad bad 👀 These and other hyper-inflated NON-TECH stonks are the tickers that need to come down the most if we are to avoid some larger, broader collapse in the coming months.

Jordykins850

I picked up some selective puts at EOD (LEN, DE, KRE, HD) Am I fucked? 🤔

Rare-ish_Birb

KRE 62c 09/05

Rare-ish_Birb

KRE 65p 09/05

Otterpoopie

Shoutout to u/Rare-ish_Birb for KRE. Made 120%. 👏

Rare-ish_Birb

KRE 62p p p p p printing

Rare-ish_Birb

Regional banks ahead, but won't last. KRE 62p 08/08 for FOMC no rate change.

Rare-ish_Birb

KRE 61c p p p printing

Rare-ish_Birb

KRE 61c 08/08

Present_Button8829

CRE market gonna crash soon. Deep OTM puts on KRE through January 2026-2027

Rare-ish_Birb

KRE 61c p p p p printing

MrG

From a research firm: > The markets have been grinding higher over the past couple of weeks as investors are becoming increasingly optimistic on the global economic outlook. We have seen hotter-than-expected US inflation prints and other market headlines that normally would have triggered a sharp sell off, but we are currently seeing a relentless bid for stocks. This resilience likely reflects underlying demand from investors who stepped away during the April pullback, moved into cash or bonds, or rotated into international equities. Now, many are gradually moving back into US stocks, contributing to the persistent upside pressure. Earnings season is upon us, and in this market update, we want to talk about early signs of froth in the market, and some bellwethers that we are watching. > Early Signs of Froth? The FOMO Trade >In recent weeks, we have been noticing some early signs of froth in the markets, particularly through a shift in market tone driven by a resurgence in thematic investing. This is loosely defined by an increase in investor risk appetite, as themes like drones and defense tech, crypto, space exploration, AI data center infrastructure, and quantum computing are gaining strong momentum. This is not to say that the momentum can’t continue, or that there aren’t valid reasons behind the moves, but clearly, animal spirits are returning. Historically, we have noticed that these types of environments often precede a “melt-up” phase in the markets, driven by a consistent bid in risk assets as cash flees from bonds, high-interest savings vehicles, dividend stocks, and defensives like consumer staples names. > What We Are Watching > Melt-ups, periods of narrative-driven investing, and a risk on appetite are generally periods where investors can see large unrealized profits, and this is where we like to remind investors to watch position sizing. As large-cap, blue chip names may rise steadily, higher-growth and more speculative stocks can significantly outpace, leading to overconcentration in riskier exposures. This is where it becomes vital to keep an eye on portfolio weightings, and how much of one’s portfolio is ‘out the risk curve’. While we do see some signs of early froth, we do believe that it is still early, and we feel there is more upside in the markets from here. Although, the environments where narrative-driven investing and risk appetite increase are historically associated with late-cycle behaviour. If we are in the early parts of a melt-up, there are a few bellwethers that we are watching to help indicate how far along we are in the cycle. > 1. Risk-On / Risk Off: Tech vs. Utilities (XLK/XLU) > In this chart, we are looking at the relative performance of the US tech sector (XLK) to the US utilities sector (XLU). The tech sector is well-known for its high-growth properties, whereas utilities are known to be more stable and defensive. We can see a few noteworthy items in the chart, the first is that the relative performance (top pane) has areas of support where this marked a bottom in the broader markets. We also note that the broader markets, the S&P 500, traditionally has not made a cycle top unless the relative performance of tech to utilities has made a new high. So far, the tech/utilities relative performance has not made a new high since early 2024. This helps indicate to us that there is likely still upside potential in the broader markets. >2. US Regional Banks > The performance of US regional banks (KRE) is often a telling barometer of risk-on sentiment in the financial markets. When regional banks make new highs, it typically reflects broad investor confidence in the real economy, credit conditions, and liquidity. Regional banks are closely tied to credit cycles, and strong performance indicates that credit is flowing. Historically, we have seen cycle tops take place where the US Regional banks have made a new all-time high. So far, we have yet to see this happen. The recent trend for regional banks is up and to the right, but they have not yet made new highs. This is another indicator to us that risk appetite can continue to improve. >3. US Small-Caps >The Russell 2000 (IWM) tracks 2000 US small-cap stocks, and this index is one of the most sensitive gauges of investor risk appetite. When small caps outperform or break to new highs, it typically signals broad-based optimism about growth, earnings, and liquidity. So far, the small-cap index has not made a new high, and again, this gives us an indication that risk appetite has room to increase. >Overall, it is difficult to discern if we truly will enter a melt-up period, but we believe we are seeing early signs of a melt-up market, and these periods tend to be associated with lots of opportunities in the markets, but also reason for caution and watching individual portfolio weightings. We believe this is where it becomes increasingly important to ‘pick spots’ in the market to allocate capital to, and to watch for any sector or individual stock overconcentration’s in a portfolio. The markets are a function of risk and reward, fear and greed, and this is where it becomes critical to be hyper-diligent in portfolio composition. There is always a bull market somewhere, and we feel that there will be lots of opportunities ahead.

Gathering_Sky

Ya. Same. Made a couple hundred on KRE calls during regional bank earnings week. Good luck, pal.

Gathering_Sky

• JPM beats and raises, but retains excess capital to bail out private credit during anticipated recession>JPM drops 5% • regional banks without trading operations meet revenue but not earnings targets>short interests cover and KRE moons 5% This has been a SKY forecast for the week ending July 18.^TM

dimethylhyperspace

Banks, esp in the KRE, industrials, small caps, utilities.. even the megacaps..who a .05% decrease in rates results in tens of millions in savings. It'll be thru earnings growth and re-rating. The AI trade is still young. We're also seeing the 493 catch a bid

creemeeseason

Nice! I'm also just considering KRE calls, January expiration. Nice little uptrend forming there. Maybe not today, since it's up big, but considering.

1UpUrBum

It's end of the quarter rebalancing. Some health care and regional banks KRE. Every thing you see down that's where it's flowing out of.

AdOk6675

Anybody know why KRE is pumping compared to the broader market?

ThinLeadership9604

Rate cut inevitable. 25 delta calls on XLY, KRE, and DHI it is. Bout 2 months out.

termin8rs

Dude check out the OI on KRE 20Jun. People agree with you.

Rare-ish_Bird

Just holding everything rn. AAPL, ANET, UNH, TMO, LLY, KRE, IWM, but put in some crazy high limit sells just in case we get some movement at close. 😇

2QuarterDollar

regional banks ETF KRE crashing

Rare-ish_Bird

Calls on UNH, TMO, AAPL, ANET, KRE, and poots on IWM.

Rare-ish_Bird

Theoretically, if you have 5k in capital, you could just buy 50 x KRE 57c for 80 cents and make $500 on a 20 cent move up.

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 56.5c p p printing

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 57c p p p p printing

Rare-ish_Bird

8 cents KRE

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 57c 06/06

greytoc

Your question is a bit vague. What kind of Financial Sector? If you want a very broad US financials - there's XLF. But there are also funds that focus on banks. For example - KRE for regional banks. KBE and KBWB for larger banks. There is IAI which is primarily broker-dealers in the US.

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 57c p p p printing

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 57c for FOMC

Rare-ish_Bird

Love this guy. Requested that he talk about bank deregulation. KRE 58c 06/08

Bipolar_Aggression

I bought a bunch of KRE at $50ish a few weeks ago.

DisraeliEers

I wish I knew when KRE was going to start its trek towards 40

termin8rs

I have KRE puts and bear spreads

rair21

KRE - regional bank ETF

Rare-ish_Bird

This week, I traded SPY 588p, SPY 600c, AAPL 210c, AAPL 212.50p, UNH 260c, LLY 700c, LLy 740c, TMO shares, VRTX shares, JPM shares, HBAN shares, KRE 58p, KRE 59p, KRE 60c, RGTI 11.50c, RGTi shares, and a boat load of UNH shares today. All winners. Bagholding old UNH shares with average cost basis at 330 now. May the market gods have mercy upon my soul-less body.

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 56p p p p printing

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE

Rare-ish_Bird

Somebody has to make $$ on WOLF....might as well be you. I filled up the boat with science and re-shoring drug tools TMO, DHR, A. Have KRE 56p for FOMC tomorrow. So many good trades with VIX over 20.

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 56p p p p p printed

scorchie

I’m not going to post my core shorts for 2 reasons: 1.) they’d look absolutely degenerate if you don’t fully buy into my thesis, so you’d lack the conviction to hold (some 5s rated funds, safe haven’s, etc) and 2.) I bought them cheap in march, they’re expensive now and tbh.:. i’m not confident they’ll payout even if I’m right at this point, fraud is rampant. XLRE/XLF/XRT naked short, regional banks (IAT/KRE), holding companies (BX/ARCC/etc.)… tbh, open the prospects for SCHD, or similar… they’re full of shit co’s I expect to default. Others would take too much explanation, and if you hood a similar belief you’re already most likely in them. dyor, not advice, but enough people upvote I figured I’d throw a bone… but I must emphasize: you need convection in the underlying structural thesis rooted in the credit markets, or else you’ll paper hand these and lose. if it was easy, everyone would be in it. Whatever you do, stay safe.

_WhatchaDoin_

Yeah, I handwaved that a bit. Let’s remove the box and the withdrawal for a moment. Also remember that each broker have different margin requirements (some much more strict, for example IKBR). With TOS which is more lax, if you invest $100k in some standard ETF, like $KRE, your margin impact is 30%, which means you have $100k -  $30k available, to trade something else or withdraw some of it. If you do a triple leveraged ETF, it is 75% (so 25% left). If you are long options, it is 100%. If you are short option, it is some other % (depending). Higher vol stock would even have higher than that. Additionally, the margin requirements can change for the worse at any time (usually when your portfolio is stressed already), and with higher volatility. Accounting for all of that, and the fact you need to withstand standard stock movements, you can only withdraw a small amount of your portfolio before it is liquidated. Again the box is just an interest rate optimization. No broker will allow you to have a $500k portfolio, keep it and withdraw 75% of that. The margin loan becomes a double whammy in your margin power. Even 50% is a stretch (unless you have a contract with the broker). The 25-30% is standard, but has some risks (especially with the current market).

ssralf

KRE calls paid for this fine lobster 🦞

ssralf

Had KRE calls up 150% in 2 days 🥱

Rare-ish_Bird

I have KRE poots tho.

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE poots for bank earnings, IWM calls for random tweets in the middle of happy hour. That's it. Go forth and multiply.

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE poots for bank earnings, IWM calls for random tweets in the middle of happy hour. That's it. Go forth and multiply.

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 52p p p p printing

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 48p p p p p printing

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 48p or 45p, for April 17 or April 25. Mix em and match em however you like. Regional banks cannot win under an scenario.

RandomGuyNamedChris

regional banks are going broke, powell said it a year ago way before mango, buy KRE puts

crazier_ed

KRE is down a fair bit ...

Rare-ish_Bird

IWM and KRE, small caps and regional banks.

NW-McWisconsin

Look at the holdings of XLF, KRE and XLU.... Good bets... Slowly buy in...

No-Structure-2434

Honestly, I think Powell had no real choice but to hold rates. Inflation is still way too sticky — the last Core PCE print actually ticked up by 0.1% vs February. On top of that, tariffs just got reintroduced across the board, with a 10% base rate and reciprocal tariffs coming from Canada (25%) and China (34%). That’s inflationary, no way around it. If the Fed cut now, it would basically be pouring fuel on the fire. Markets are clearly feeling the pressure. VIX hit 44 today, SPY dropped nearly 10% in a few days, and regional banks (KRE) got hammered — down over 10%. Liquidity is getting tight too: the repo facility has drained down to just $196B from $2.3T not that long ago. That’s a big red flag. Then there’s the economic data — unemployment’s creeping up (4.2%), auto and mortgage delinquencies are climbing, and over 9 million student loan borrowers are behind on payments. Consumer confidence has now dropped five months in a row, which has historically preceded every recession since the 1950s. Even the Fed's GDP outlook is split — Atlanta Fed is projecting -3.7% for Q1, while the NY Fed still sees +2.8%. That kind of divergence usually means someone’s very wrong. So no, I don’t expect a rate cut any time soon unless something *really* breaks. If inflation keeps creeping and tariffs push prices higher, the Fed might even have to tighten again. Personally, I think they’re bluffing with the “1–2 cuts later this year” — unless we get a credit event or a massive labor market shift, I don’t see it happening.

Miserable_Message330

Regional banks KRE -10% That should be alarming to people

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 50p p p p printing

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 54p p p p p printing

Jumpinmycar

KRE is down, surprisingly.

RandomGuyNamedChris

Regional banks broke by end of year, Puts on KRE

ToiletSeatDreamer

Bought some deep OTM leap puts on KRE last year (2026 expiry) and have been averaging down ever since. Now have a big fat stack and waiting for the firework show.

AdOk6675

I've been watching KRE since late summer, definitely looking primed for a short position.

sol_beach

SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) iShares U.S. Regional Banks ETF (IAT) Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) First Trust Nasdaq Bank ETF (FTXO)

greytoc

Banks and finance sector are not necessarily the same thing. There is a financial sector ETF like XLF that holds banks and financial related companies if that's what you are looking for - top holding is BRK.B, JPM, V, MA. It also holds insurance companies, credit card companies, and brokerages. There is a regional bank ETF like KRE - these are regional banks not BHC (bank holding companies). So - a BHC like JPM, Wells, Citi will not be part of the fund.

UPnwuijkbwnui

SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF: KRE is so fucked. Just wait until tomorrow.

Rare-ish_Bird

Plays for this week: NVDA 129c KRE 62c CFG 45c UNH 460c SMCI 59c LMT shares HBAN shares MSFT shares SPY 600p Not a bull usually, except for this week....still some juice left for the war resolutions.

Rare-ish_Bird

Have calls on UNH and KRE. Otherwise, cash gang, waiting to see if we get dump continuation.

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 63c p p p p p printing 

Rare-ish_Bird

I trade boring poots and calls a week out, 1 strike above or below the ATM price depending on the prevailing 3 minute candle trends, RSI and MACD. Mostly MSFT, UNH, KRE, SPY, IWM, NVDA, TSM, GS, HBAN.

johannschmidt

Puts on KRE. I believe people are going to start losing confidence in our banking system and will start withdrawing tons of cash.

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 64p 02/21

ninjaschoolprofessor

What the hell I want my letter too damnit?!? I didn’t have 3,385 trades but I definitely YOLO’d away $500k on IWM and KRE last July/August.

Rare-ish_Bird

The way I trade options on every ETF....find the stock component with almost 100% correlation with the ETF trend and use RSI and MACD on the component stock to time entry and exit in the ETF options. In this case, HBAN as the stock to watch for 10 cent swings in share price, and 65p or 63c on KRE depending on the trend direction.

2MuchSend

Can you share your approach to trading KRE? What indicators do you rely most on or is it more about total market sentiment?

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 65p p p p printed

Shanknado

No need to be toxic lol. KRE barely beat VOO with a lot more risk. Glad it worked out for you.

2MuchSend

Yep. Should have moved on those KRE puts.

2MuchSend

KRE puts?? 64 strike? Too late? 63.50? Feel like that should have been the move yesterday. Not sure I want to hold that overnight today....

BushLov3r

You love playing KRE and IWM don’t u bird

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 64p p p p p printing *not holding for FOMC*

Rare-ish_Bird

IWM because FOMC, KRE because FOMC, SPY because well, tech rebound isn't real, GM: pos, TSM for Gyna invasion, and TSLA for earnings and upcoming feud with our president.

clearside

Would love that. KRE inside on the year but the month green. A little conflict. Hope we get to see some bank blood too.

Rare-ish_Bird

Day 16: Banked ~$ 8k, on SPY poots, IWM poots, KRE poots and TSM calls. YTD realized gains: ~ $ 48k Only 234 trading days left in 2025. 💋

BulletPlease

KRE breaking out. Financials and smol caps are en fuego.

clearside

$KRE has a wonderful bearish setup going into next year. Would love to see a banking crisis ASAP lol

PapaCharlie9

You have the basics about long straddles right and you are right that the premium up-front cost is a concern. I like to say that a straddle is a bet you pay for twice, but can only win once. I don't know what you mean byt "lots of anticipation" and why that would make premiums high or low. However, before we go further, why JPM? There's a pretty big assumption in this that JPM has some kind of highly correlated price move to a Fed decision. What proof do you have of that assumption? Why not go for the whole sector with XFL or KRE? Or trade interest rate futures directly?

Butholxplorer_69_420

What names are you checking out for this dip? I am looking at leaps for these Vrt, oracle, IWM, KRE, Spy, coin, adobe

john2557

KRE bank run when?

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 65p p p printed

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE 65p 12/20

pingish

I was shorting it for a few months. \`KRE\` and \`IAT\` kept rising. I got out of the way.

VOO_bull_forever

shit. I had bought KRE/IWM in March 2023 and yeah sold in March 2023......... Fuck

CosmicSpiral

Lots of euphoria, especially in KRE. Earnings have been breaking down in the Russell 2000 since the beginning of the year.

SnS2500

AIRR, infrastructure MLPX, midstream energy infrastructure KBWB, big banks KRE, regional banks IAK, insurance

Slight_Awareness_769

Regional Banks KRE and Gold Miners GDX should beat inflation. I also have higher yield mining stocks (BHP, RIO), small cap plays (CALF) and some utilities (D, NEE). Definitely like XLP, but VDC has a larger COST holding and yield currently.

GraceBoorFan

My bad, was dyslexic and read KRE as XLE  Anyways, any personal long term PT on KRE?

tropicalia84

XLF and KRE making NVDA look like a flat line

Samjabr

buying a crap ton of KRE puts for Dec 20th, post rate decision. Fireworks incoming!

Rare-ish_Bird

KRE moves more than Ford, and you might actually win with poots when this financial baloon deflates. Regionals trading at 14 PE? Hahahahahaha