OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg
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(12/3) Friday's Pre-Market Stock Movers & News
When you were rewarded for bad behavior (and the lessons you learned from it)
Which market fundamentals do you pay more or less attention to with large companies?
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Discount grocery is one sector to look into, I am considering opening a small position in a few discount grocery stocks like Grocery Outlet $GO, $OLLI and $PSMT. Also slowly rotating some of my profits from tech into international emerging markets, Chinese stocks, international stock ETFs like $VT, a mix of US & international bonds, a bit of sliver and gold, and a small amount of Bitcoin and ETH. And starting to stack a reasonable percentage of cash in a HYSA as well. I am also buying a small number of shares in inverse leveraged ETFs on large tech that I believe is overvalued when they are way up. My current favorite is PLTZ because I despise that company personally. Also $SQQQ when QQQ is pushing ATHs. I don’t think the top is in yet though. I believe we have at least until EOY before everything starts to decline steeply, but I am slowly taking profits and hedging.
I bought crdo stock and made exactly $1000. I had a limit buy in for mdb and would have made just under $2000 if it filled but it never did :/ Still beating myself up for it. I'm now bagholding for BRZE but I think its going green tomorrow or sometime soon. All in all it was a fun week, first time i really sat down and did some DD to find the earnings plays I thought had the most asymmetric risk to reward. I also played OLLI but sold too soon, just broke even on that one.
OLLI… trash… that is all.
OLLI seems like a good put candidate.
DG calls,OLLI calls, CRWD puts or spreads DLTR puts, Five Puts, Tilly’s calls, VSCO calls, Lulu and Zumiez calls. What could go wrong? Oh and KSS long calls
I don't blame you but there are still winners right now. WPM, RSG, BRO, BJ, AJG, AZO, ORLY, GDX, IAU, OLLI Gold mining and insurance in particular.
Thoughts on OLLi earnings coming up? DG shit the bed and pumped, Ulta is gang busters with guidance iffy, and with OLLI closing 100’s of stores all signs point to it booming, am I wrong!!????
Opening up a bear position on LULU and OLLI who's with me?
**OLLI** has earnings next week I think it shits the bed. Today is a good entry if you play ER. buy puts before next week and sell before ER. **LULU** also has ER next week. Good entry point today. Down alot since the past month but bad ER and it will also shit the bed. Tarrifs war is killing this stock. Depending on the day today I will probably buy puts for this stocks and hold into next week. Good luck nephews
OLLI's been crushing it lately. [Revenue jumped 12.4% to $578.4M last quarter](https://beyondspx.com/article/ollie-s-bargain-outlet-holdings-inc-nasdaq-olli-a-treasure-trove-of-opportunities-in-the-discount-retail-landscape) while they're expanding like crazy. They grabbed 10 stores from 99 Cents Only in Texas. Smart move. [Jefferies just bumped their price target to $125](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jefferies-raises-price-target-ollie-191745254.html). This discount retail play prints money during tough times. People love cheap shit. 14.5M loyalty members and growing. The "treasure hunt" shopping experience keeps boomers coming back for more. Their Army grows stronger 🚀
OLLI calls were the only thing more obvious than WMT.
CASY MDB OLLI DAVE ADBE (maybe) RH AVGO COST is trash for earnings. Always a bad play.
Found the $OLLI put I was talking about. It was Sept 2019 earnings https://preview.redd.it/lmxkylg74t1e1.png?width=648&format=png&auto=webp&s=6c599b807ad4f6493ee00f7296cb0e92b59f770b
Back in something like 2019, I had some puts on $OLLI and the stock took a big dump. I can't remember the gains. I gotta look it up, but that was another blind put scenario
Look at all the bargain store stocks. It’s almost like someone pumped them… and now dumping… BIG, DG, DLTR, OLLI, FIVE… something is off here. The economy is doing poorly but these are dumping?
OLLI calls? 
fuck yoga pants, calls on OLLI cause broke fucks are shopping there more and more in this inflationary environment
I knew that i should have popped that OLLI
For guys looking at LULU, or having any idea - I get that they had a dowfall this year and expectations MAY be low ( in fact I don't get anything bc I'm a financial REGARD and have 0 idea about the things I'm talking about) - any thoughts on OLLI? They also have earnings this week
Breaking out of resistance: [https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=OLLI&p=d](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=OLLI&p=d) Longterm it looks bullish too if you go to max/yearly. The logic is that if retail is hurting they are gonna be selling off excess inventory to ollies who will discount it off. Only thing is that retail has been slow for Ollies could be impacted too. I won't play earnings but if there's a drop I'll likely scoop up shares long term. Conventional wisdom says they will drop because they used funds to buy 99 cent stores and retail is dipping. They will do stock buybacks which will reduce the drop. Estimating -7% drop.
My fat cousin posted on instagram wearing their new Cookie Monster pajama pants from Ollie’s Bargain Outlet. Puts on OLLI for next week
We can really make this run $BIG, gey berhs shorting like crazy  * Shares Outstanding: **29.22 million** **Average / Daily Volume of 1.5 million** Dollar General (DG) 230 million Dollar Tree (DLTR) 224 million Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI) 64 million Ross Stores (ROST) 350 million TJMax/Marshalls(TJX) 1.17 billion Burlington Stores (BURL) 67 million Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) 120 million kohl’s (KSS) 123.8 million been yapping about this all day so last will say about it
The OLLI puts I bought two weeks ago for their ER have somehow come back to life
It's very possible, a company like $OLLI or even $DLTR who wants to buy 4.5B in annual sales cheaply, plus they get their connections into the closeouts and volume buying too. It's a very compelling acquisition opportunity for someone too. The company does have a large share repurchase authorization and trades well below their tangible book value here too, so I any acquisition would probably need to be at least 2X the current share price, if not more.
OLLI puts I do not have a perfect track record but it has been a running theme that discount retailers suffer during earnings season I of course, may be wrong but seeing some of the advice other people spew on here- it's not a terrible choice
am willing to bet that OLLI goes down its been a running theme lately that discount retailers do poorly after earnings releases
might try some puts on OLLI for their ER tomorrow. it really seems like consumers' wallets are stretched right now and that seems like the kind of place that will take a beating under those circumstances
Can someone tell me the AH price of OLLI????
When I am up big on a stock I sell part of it and use that profit to buy VTI VOO and QQQ - religiously. Every week I sell a few shares of something and use the proceeds to buy more of one of those three trying to rebalance to have those near 20% of my account balance. (So it's 60% QQQ+VTI+VOO) and 40% other stuff. Mostly dividend stocks (in IRAs) and mag 7 in taxable brokerage and a few outliers. Right now I'm up a bit on ELF and OLLI and RILY I will sell a piece of each next week
I'd look at ROST or OLLI instead. Discount stores during a recession do better. Look at how well FIVE Below is doing. People will look for discounts in a high inflation environment.
OLLI has been on a serious run the past 3 months. If there really is a consumer credit crunch, I wonder if that run continues
OLLI up
OLLI earnings Total net sales increased 13.7% to $514.5 million. Comparable store sales increased 7.9% from the prior year increase of 1.2%. The Company opened six new stores, ending the quarter with 482 stores in 29 states, a year-over-year increase in store count of 7.3%. Operating income increased 217.5% to $52.5 million and operating margin increased 650 basis points to 10.2%. Net income increased 199.2% to $42.2 million, or $0.68 per diluted share, as compared with net income of $14.1 million, or $0.22 per diluted share, in the prior year. Adjusted net income(1) increased 205.5% to $41.7 million, or $0.67 per diluted share, as compared with prior year adjusted net income of $13.7 million, or $0.22 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA(1) increased 146.7% to $64.0 million and adjusted EBITDA margin(1) increased 670 basis points to 12.4%.
OLLI earnings to be announced premarket
In at OLLI. Earnings before market opens.
OLLI January $100 calls
huh. why the fuck did i get into OLLI again?
Everyone is getting paid and I’m over here holding OLLI calls and PLAY puts.
Thoughts on OLLI earnings?
Anybody playing OLLI’s burger barn for urn this evening?
OLLI’s burger barn crankin em out
I could be wrong but I’m pretty sure it will be a flop. OLLI and RENT are interesting
I feel like OLLI earnings is going to be a huge move. Not sure which way I think down
The most anticipated earnings releases scheduled for the week are NIO #NIO, GameStop #GME, GitLab #GTLB, Ciena #CIEN, DocuSign #DOCU, SAIC #SAIC, Academy Sports #ASO, Smucker's #SJM, Waterdrop #WDH, and Ollie's Bargain Outlet #OLLI. [http://eps.sh/cal](http://eps.sh/cal)
These are all very solid points. I'd even be willing to go along that there is some additional fear because of potential boycotts. I don't think HD is a decent comp because there is very little overlap. HD is very much tied to home construction/renovation with other stuff littered in. I do follow your point though. I also think there has been pressure in the segment. OLLI and BJ are two names with similar patterns. Another theory I'll put forward....TGT soared during 2020/21. They generated a ton of growth during the pandemic, which was unsustainable. The stock almost doubled from Feb 2020-mid 2021 (also something a stock with a 3% dividend shouldn't do). I think that bubble is still deflating, which adds to volatility. WMT has basically been flat that whole time.
I'm not a holder. I do think there are much better places for my cash right now, but I thought that a long time ago, the last week has actually made it more appealing, though I like BJ if I was going to invest in a name in the sector (insert bj joke here.....). WMT is also down this week, about 5%. So is DLTR, DG, and OLLI (all 10%+ down). Those are all "conservative" names. AMZN is more a tech trade, imo, so not a great comp. BUD is about 15% off it's ATH for comparison.
Nice little move on $OLLI if good news when Powell is speaking could see movement up
OLLI, another who’s expected positive earnings after close today
So hard to not sell my DDiamonds today : TSLA, OLLI, QS, DKILY, NCLH, SKYW, NVO, NMG are my ONLY ones up today but, but, they’re my 1+ year beebees. I think today’s a good day to go play outside
|Tickers of interest|| :--|:--| |\*\*CFB\*\*\*\*Float used: 115\*\*\*\*FCF yield: 11%\*\*\*\*Exp. Cash: 8B\*\*\*\*Thesis based on factors: Overvalued\*\*\*\*Play: Short 53P 12/16/22 @.25\*\*\ || |\*\*OLLI\*\*\*\*Float used: 103%\*\*\*\*FCF yield: 27%\*\*\*\*Exp. cash: 10B\*\*\*\*Thesis based on factors: Close to value\*\*\*\*Play: Short 50P 1/20/23 @.60\*\*\ || |\*\*LI\*\*\*\*Float used: 93%\*\*\*\*FCF yield: 12%\*\*\*\*Exp. Cash:64B\*\*\*\*Thesis based on factors: Close to value\*\*\*\*Play: Short 20P 12/23/22 @ .95\*\*\ || |\*\*VERU\*\*\*\*Float used: 86%\*\*\*\*FCF yield: -26%\*\*\*\*Exp. Cash: 1.8B\*\*\*\*Thesis based on factors: Close to value\*\*\*\*Play: Short: 5P 12/30/22 @ .90\*\*\ || |\*\*XPEV\*\*\*\*Float used: 204%%\*\*\*\*FCF yield: -13%\*\*\*\*Ex. Cash: 11B\*\*\*\*Thesis based on factors: Close to value\*\*\*\*Play: Long 12C 1/6/23 @ 1.16\*\*\*\* \*\*|| |\*\*XOM\*\*\*\*Float used: 79%\*\*\*\*FCF yield: 15%\*\*\*\*Expect. Cash: 49B\*\*\*\*Thesis based on factors: Slightly under value\*\*\*\*Play: Long 118C12/30 @ .40\*\*\ || |\*\*TLRY\*\*\*\*Float used: -46%\*\*\*\*FCF yield: 11.1%\*\*\*\*Exp Cash: 32M\*\*\*\*Thesis based on factors: Near Value\*\*\*\*Play: Short 4P 12/30 @ .14\*\*|| |\ \*\*CGC\*\*\*\*Float used: 81%\*\*\*\*FCF yield: 8%\*\*\*\*Exp. Cash: 390M\*\*\*\*Thesis based on factors: Overvalued\*\*\*\*Play: 5P 12/16 @ .87 \*\*\*\*Trading Thesis : Tracking the float along with daily volume along with company financials helps to narrow down moving tickers\*\*Fundamental and technical analysis is often used to find growth tickers and information about them. Fundamental analysis looks to see whether an investment is overvalued or undervalued based on underlying economic conditions, as well as the finances of the company or other organization that issued a stock or bond. Technical analysis instead looks at patterns in the price of an investment to predict future movements in that investment’s price.\*I look for tickers that are trading at least 2 million in volume a day, with a Market-cap of no less that 500 million.\*\*The shares traded are compared to the average volume to determine how much of the float is used ( Or shares traded). That information is compiled with data on how profitable the company is and how much cash do they have compared to what is expected.\*\*\*Things to consider when finding the plays-\*\*If the stock volume has traded 1 million or more in volume premarket, I will use that and calculate a rough estimate on what the stock will trade for the day.If the ticker looks to be trading more volume than the day before, I would consider it for a long play. If trading less than the movement of the ticker, I would consider a short or put play. ( If all the other factors previously mentioned checks out. )The trades are researched afternoon daily To find possible tickers making a big move.||
Nice call I’m still bullish on OLLI
All right, retail guy. Any thoughts on OLLI? They report Dec 1. I’m viewing ROST as a bellwether and am thinking OLLI as a fellow discounter will do well too. Consumer revolving credit is at ATH and households are getting stretched from inflation: food, gas, necessities. So their target customer is turning increasingly to discounters in a search for value. That, plus I think the issues plaguing higher-end retailers (inventory overhang, canceled orders, disruptions from the supply chain) is providing OLLI with a great market for closeout deals
Down. I dunno what the CPI reading will be, just down. Leading food indicators have been dropping for a while (fruit, meat, some vegetables). Pork is so cheap the McRib came back. Beef is back around normal-ish prices, $3.50 or so /lb. Not cheap but not the insane $6.50/lb either when meat processors were shuttered. Apples are not quite as cheap as they were 3 years ago, but pretty close. That means inflation adjusted they've become cheaper. One of my favorite stores and stocks, Ollie's (OLLI) has been putting out better food selection and the prices are still beating contenders (DG, WMT, KR, BIG, etc). That means the deal flow from resizing, repackages, etc. is going strong. The CEO Swygert mentioned this several times last earnings call - that this was when it was really going to pick up and the deals would start getting good. Dunno when eggs will ease, as they had that monster bird cull from the avian flu outbreaks, but sooner or later eggs are coming down. Gas will be falling. The summer driving season is done. Anybody who wants a job has 3 jobs right now. Lots of work for home, also helping the matter. There's massive incentive for regulars to work and little to travel/vacation. Meanwhile China is quietly having a meltdown and a dozen of techies are being laid off per second. Gen Z techies are finally getting their Millennials moment. ***Remember when they told truck drivers to learn to code?*** **Hope you tech bros like 18 wheelers and lot lizards.** Government is most likely to be split, which means lots of gridlock and probably not much in the way of additional spending. Business loves gridlock. Bonds are unattractive until rates stop going up. Real estate is dive bombing from it's regard highs. The only big asset class left pays a yield that can adjust to inflation. Despite the overpriced big tech being a dumpster fire, lots of smaller and more boring businesses are doing just fine, and they're reasonably or bargain priced.
Puts on BBW, OLLI, AVGO Plan A is to sell before earnings, Plan B is to hold through and I'm still confident
August puts on FCN, LLY, GO, and OLLI. Literally can't go tits up.
Can anyone tell me why i shouldnt buy Puts on OLLI?
Top picks this year: $CRSP $OLLI $POWW
This happens lately. All news is good news at this point which sucks lol. Nothing makes sense. Target found to be spending too much and has to get rid of inventory at cost. Stock goes up. OLLI misses earnings for the first time since pandemic. Stock goes up. Msft says "earnings might be bad". Stock goes up. SNAP says earnings might be bad. Entire tech market crashes after hours and recovers by noon the next day.
ALHC base breakout. AMWL testing top of its range, looks good above $4. OLLI looks interesting, but probably going to pass on it.
Discount retail? OLLI 🐂
OLLI and LOVE gotta beat permarket <3 My kids name is Ollie and he had a growth spurt so I’m feeling growth.
OLLI to $55 tomorrow open, book it. Please (:
Anyone playing OLLI this week? If DG/DLTR are any indication of discount stores they should beat eh?
Anyone playing OLLI next week? I’m feeling cally
I picked up and flipped OLLI a few months ago for a modest gain. ER is tomorrow and I’m going to stay away but might pick up if it drops enough. It will probably drop a bit but options don’t look appealing.
Taking a risk in OLLI; their stores are full and sell discounted retail. Big issue with Ross is that they have been pretty barren. As inflation continues to pound us in the ass, Ollie’s offers good deals with a lot in stock. Earnings coming up is a toss-up but I feel like it’s either going to shit the bed or blow up come earnings.
> Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI) – The discount retailer’s shares jumped 6.4% in premarket trading after Bank of America Securities double-upgraded the stock to “buy” from “underperform. Ollie's - I used to live in a small city with one - is probably a tier below kmart on the retail food chain. The one time I was there I was struck by just how hard you can shine shit.
Almost all of Costco's profit is their membership fees and they have an insanely high rate of retention. They will be fine. Broadly inflation is high, consumers are running out of money and when times get hard they trade down. TGT people go to WMT. WMT people go to DG and OLLI. Just look what TJX did, smashed it out of the park because all those M shoppers are trading down. M's earnings are likely to look like WMT.
I don’t trust in China. And would you mind to share some of your small caps stocks? I think there are many opportunities in Small Caps rather than Med-Large caps. I would gladly invest in only small caps stocks, but need some large caps because I have quite big portfolio. there are so many small caps I like: DBX, CRSR, FLWS, TCNNF, SNBR, OLLI, UPWK, etc…
$OLLI is the perfect inflation play People want cheap and they sell cheap
is OLLI a good buy? discount retailers should thrive in this environment no?
thats a specious argument on the surface. They may beat "actively managed funds" but they dont necessarily beat buyin and hold of great companies. For example, if you bought 3 well researched, solid companies 10 yrs ago (AMZN, FB, OLLI) you would have killed the market. I just picked 3 random companies. You can look back to select other companies with solid book value (net worth) and/or earnings growth (profitable companies) and you will likely see the same trend. Actively managed funds, have a lot of turnover, expenses, and activity for the sake of it.
Is $OLLI undervalued @ 3 billion
Ollie's Bargain Outlet drops 19% to $51.05 after Q3 results miss estimates $OLLI
The last time I did that was when I had bought OLLI calls before an ER and it went up some. I let the rest ride and it had a PTON-like post-ER shit. It can go both ways.
OLLI I worked for them and they have been growing at a fast clip. Decent margins and easy operation. Stock of trading at early low. Profitable and quality company
Yeah, keeping an eye on that one. Also looking at OLLI - tanked after earnings but also got upgrade from Wells so I could see people jumping in. ​ Not many options for options on either one though. Really wanted to do 9/3 exp.
Oh no, looking for GPS, WDAY, and HIBB to run. ​ PTON puts if it looks weak and JPow says the T word. ​ OLLI calls for a dead cat bounce, or puts like PTON if JPow drops a nuke.
Looking for opportunities on GPS, WDAY, HIBB, OLLI, and PTON today. ​ Trying to find some other overpriced hot garbage in case JPow sends us tumbling.
I start with the information available on my brokerage site to sift though the numbers and evaluations (growth, projections, ratios, peer comparisons, past earnings results, etc.). Then I use third party sources to find out about their history. Sometimes, I calculate their fair market value using discounted cash flow, but if it’s a stock that a trustworthy investment site or YouTube channel has recently done a fair value calculation on, I will check those instead to save myself some work. Finally, to get a direct answer on the possible valuation of a stock, I look on Yahoo Finance. The slowest this has taken me was over the course of three days when I first researched ABBV back when I first started investing. The fastest? One day when I researched OLLI on its earnings day (by coincidence) and decided it was worth a play (got in with 10 shares, got out making $50 in the aftermarket when it’s price jumped on earnings).
I was working on my own $BIG DD over the weekend, interesting to see this one take off. For my .02, I think the fact that they still have over 10% of market cap left in the buy back, SI 16% (ortex) and institutional ownership is something like 106% of free float are good indicators for the WSB crowd. They're also severely under-valuded compared to competitors, NTM P/E is 9-10 compared to 18-20 for most in the industry. If you want a real head scratcher, take a look at OLLI (P/E >27), which is about the closest competitor in terms of market cap. OLLI does about half as much in earnings and has a market cap of 2.5x BIG.
Melvin capital has a short position on OLLI (Ollies bargain Outlet) which just beat earnings by 30% last week. I know what type of options I’m buying. 🚀
Damn, I flipped OLLI in the aftermarket post-earnings too quickly. Had I held and sold a bit later, I’d be up another $50. Oh well, can’t complain about making $50 from an earnings play.
I got a few moves planned for tomorrow: want to get in on LMT before its ex-dividend day, and want to play OLLI for earnings. Research has indicated that it’s an undervalued stock with recent history of crushing earnings
Check out STNT and OLLI. Heard FLEX might also be in the cards
I'm gambling profits I made off AMRS, OLLI, CMCSA (which I'll buy back into eventually for long term). So yeah itll suck if I lose my 2000, but my investment money is treated as "lost" anyway. But if it were to reach 1000/share, that 20,000 I'd have there could change my life.
Same, though it's a mix of AMRS, GME, OLLI, and Comcast (idr the ticker) that have really pushed me up. Kinds feel bad for OLLI though, profits from that are what funded GME. Either way, hoping my 17 shares of GME will push me to 6 figures lol.
Please add OLLI in there. After [my cat](https://imgur.com/a/jOPmNDX), Ollie.