PCT

DoubleFamous5751

I actually saw the PCT chart the other morning. Lit up on a in “top of daily range” scan I have. I’ll ride with you OP https://preview.redd.it/7u0aem7p3h8g1.jpeg?width=328&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a33fdf525e066d198c1c53c3950e1f59ed399717

DrSeuss1020

PCT to Mars holy shit why didn’t I think of that

Carti_2s

I’ll buy $PCT. I need to search more information but this action is very cheap now, pal. I think you have right!! Thx

No_Privacy_Anymore

R/Purecycle $PCT

likamuka

HASSETT: WILL BE BACK AT 3, 4 PCT GROWTH PACE BY EARLY NEXT YEAR -CNBC And pigs can fly.

Character-Pizza-8133

PCT is an industrial powerhouse

BiologicalUnit

$SMX SMX Strikes U.S. Partnership to Deploy FDA-Compliant Molecular Marking in rPET Plastics (NASDAQ: SMX) Positive; - FDA‑compliant molecular marking validated for food‑grade rPET - U.S. deployment with a Miami plastics distributor announced - Positioned to address the $50 billion recycling segment - PCT blockchain credits enable tradable verified recycled content - Global pilots in Southeast Asia and Europe demonstrate scalability Negative; - None. https://www.stocktitan.net/news/SMX/smx-strikes-u-s-partnership-to-deploy-fda-compliant-molecular-9ppzzp4dt5ai.html

-PunsWithScissors-

One other country? That’s true for every regional patent. You also have to file with the EPO (most of Europe), ARIPO (parts of Africa), EAPO (regions of Asia), etc. However, through the Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT), you get provisional protection for up to 30 months in all 150+ member countries, giving you time to pursue IP protection in specific regions afterward. Which is generally 10-20 strategically chosen patents.

ShipSuspicious3191

$PCT baby

luciform44

I sold 3k worth of TSLA to hike the PCT for the summer... of 2013.

6JDanish

ADUR has a subreddit: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Aduro/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Aduro/) So does competitor PCT: [https://www.reddit.com/r/PureCycle/](https://www.reddit.com/r/PureCycle/) I'm long PCT. I'm waiting on ADUR to prove its technology works at scale.

imstaringataplant

I was considering posting my first DD for PCT but the I remember I hate all of you cuckleberry finns

imstaringataplant

i just cough-farted when PCT gonna fly?

WellAintThatShiny

There are a few. ORGN and PCT are the main ones. ADUR is in this space, and uses much better tech, they are my pick for clean tech.

DrSeuss1020

Currently still very bullish long term on ASTS, SOFI, HOOD, HIMS, QS, TEM, PCT, and a few others

T0th3M00NW3G0

High risk, high reward stocks: PCT, ACHR, APLD, LCID

burner-1234

Nice my man - I think things gonna really pick up for PCT here soon. Still long and strong going into POs.

broke_ugly_dumb

just wanna say i followed u and made some money. people hate on u cuz they think the ticker is dumb but i did my research after ur original posts and i liked what i say in PCT (and ADUR)

Stockcalc

PCT. Purecycle Technologies. A solution to chemically recycle poly propylene ( process deviled by P&G) Reddit has a good sub on it for your home work.

GARP_72

PCT. Earnings on 8/7. Looking for an update on customer purchase orders, selling out Ironton, and overall demand. Benefits from global green initiatives.

Need_That_Money_Now

Rolls Royce $RYCEY!!!! Up, Up and Away!!! PureCycle $PCT!!!! Recycling monopoly on polypropylene!!!

imstaringataplant

When the PCT purchase orders start coming in, I will be a richer man.

imstaringataplant

PCT

imstaringataplant

PCT

imstaringataplant

I've never been more cash heavy in my life with the exception of my AMD, RKLB, ASTS, PCT, and RDDT. Y'all pumping donuts, khols, and open buttholes THE TOP IS IN!!!!!!

johnmd32

PCT is a generational opportunity.

notmyprobl3m

Mark my words, get into $PCT. Idk why no one is talking about it but it’ll be $20-$23 before the end of August.

fluffy_scoops

I’m in PCT…like it

imstaringataplant

When PCT?!?!

Epicurus-fan

My two top spec plays are ENVX and PCT. Look at the strength of both stocks over the past 1-2 months. Market is clearly gaining confidence in both. ENVX has TJ Rogers behind it and Stan Druckenmiller became a major investor in PCT fairly recently. Follow the super smart money.

Epicurus-fan

Well said and good advice. Most companies don’t make it across the Valley of Death. Smart to wait if you can time that right. Two companies that I think are close to proving they will this year or early next are ENVX and PCT.

Nusanss

Ah yes, the classic "check out these two unprofitable plastic recycling companies" pump. Let me break it down: ADUR: $337k revenue, lost $7.4M. One lonely analyst says it's worth $48 (currently $12). Sure buddy. PCT: $1.58M revenue, 27% short interest, analysts say it's worth LESS than current price. Market cap somehow $2.7B on basically no revenue. Both burning cash faster than they can recycle plastic bottles. Classic "save the environment" narrative stocks that make you feel good while emptying your wallet. The real recycling happening here is your money getting recycled into insiders' pockets. But hey, at least when you're broke you can feel good about supporting green technology or whatever.

Goldgoingup

$PCT

imstaringataplant

Are there any sexy bulls keeping eyes on PCT?

Shdwrptr

Why would I get into a company that seems very much like they could never operate profitably at an all time high? In my opinion, PCT was dicey when it was $7 but $15+ is a hard pass.

CapitalInstance4315

$PCT short squeeze. All Aboard!

imstaringataplant

CAPR, PCT, and NGENF shares you're welcome

imstaringataplant

Actual question...what is the general sentiment about PCT in here? I'm bullish af but I'm also a homie with an extra chromie

Vast_Giraffe_8637

PCT

JimmyJames2331

Have a look at the PCT blog from earlier this week and you will see that P&G is getting ready to use the product.

PeterParkerUber

Isn’t P&G the owner of the patent, and they gave the global license to PCT to produce the recycled plastics, so they can achieve their ESG goal of 100% recycled packaging by 2030. So aren’t P&G almost a guaranteed customer.

0utstandingcitizen

$PCT

imstaringataplant

PCT, NGENF, and CAPR are my straight gambles rn. However, I make Ralph Wiggum look like Einstein.

prettypositron

Don't know about PCT or NGENF but CAPR was nice today and I sold and last I checked it was up in futures. Also, got in on ASTS late-ish ($50) and feel uneasy because nothing can go vertical this long.

imstaringataplant

Maybe I shouldn't have sold $30K in ASTS shares to buy $10k each in PCT, NGENF, and CAPR...

imstaringataplant

i spend $10k each on PCT, CAPR, and NGENF shares today (ralph wiggum voice)

imstaringataplant

I need confirmation bias for throwing $10k each at shares of PCT, NGENF, and CAPR...sold my ASTS for it...

imstaringataplant

Just sold about $40k of ASTS in my gambling account and threw it at PCT, NGENF, and CAPR...my only DD is that PCT sounds dope af and my boy is a pharma bro and NGENF and CAPR are his two largest positions by far NFA Ralph Wiggum beats a tambourine inside my skull

imstaringataplant

just shot my wad on PCT and CAPR

imstaringataplant

just bought $10k in CAPR and PCT shares...my spirit animal is ralph wiggum

imstaringataplant

I deeply regret my gamble on LUNR over PCT. ^(thank you for your attention to this matter.)

imstaringataplant

I have a shit ton of ASTS. Initially got in at 7-8, again at 15, sold at 28, bought back at 21. Right now I'm considering throwing a bunch of $$$ at PCT shares...but I was also born with an extra chromosome and even a regard like me can get lucky

CapitalInstance4315

Long PCT. $320k. Bears are stupid. Even if PCT gets virgin pricing, there's always the chance they can reduce their margins with the next plant. Source their material at a lower cost. Or even, find new markets. Like BOPP, which wasn't even a consideration in the original idea. Bulls are expecting a higher price than virgin. Y'know, because recycling is hard, and governments demand recycling. And corporations love proving that they're ahead of the curve. PG already has a 'committment to recycling' page on it's website. If I'm wrong, expecting a 50% haircut. If I'm right 50x within 2 years.

imstaringataplant

yo bro with the extra chromosome, I saw your post about PCT ages ago. I appreciate you bringing the company to my attention. -just some swing-trading dumbass

imstaringataplant

kinda wanna get my dick even deeper in PCT...

-medicalthrowaway-

Just when I PCT… they introduce the steroid Olympics

1have2much3time

I’m very familiar with PCT and their technology as I’ve been to their site and researched this for a recycling program that I was involved with at a previous company. Their technology is very interesting as one of the main issues with recycled polypropylene is that it’s cloudy, so really can’t be used for non-dyed products. PCT developed a way to return the recycled polypropylene to a near perfectly clear state. However, the process is extremely expensive with the key cost driver being the amount of xenon needed during the process, which is an extremely expensive gas (even more so with Russia being one of the primary global sources of xenon). This makes the recycled polypropylene **significantly** more expensive than virgin polypropylene which makes it a non-starter for any realistic use case. It’s certainly not a business that I’d invest in.

imstaringataplant

Anyone care about PCT yet?

Ambitious-Cake9404

PCT jump to $14 form $10 could be the start of something Here’s an overview of $PCT (PureCycle Technologies) float distribution and share ownership levels: ⸻ 📊 PCT Float & Ownership Breakdown According to recent data from SimplyWallSt: • Institutions hold ~55.3% of total shares outstanding (~99.3 M shares)  • Household Retail (General Public) owns ~23.4% (~42.0 M shares)  • Hedge Funds control ~19.0% (~34.1 M shares)  • Individual Insiders (officers, directors) only ~2.31% (~4.15 M shares)  With ~179.5 M shares outstanding and a float of ~164 M, this breakdown shows that roughly 24% of the float is retail, while the remaining ~76% is controlled by institutions and hedge funds. ⸻ 🔍 What It All Means Institutional Holdings (~55%) • Large-scale investors with long-term outlooks. • Their trades can cause significant volume shifts, but they typically hold for fundamentals. Hedge Funds (~19%) • Likely those involved with short positioning—this group may resist squeeze trends. • Their presence contributes to elevated borrow rates and short pressure. Retail (~23%) • Comprises everyday investors and meme-stock speculators. • This group is pivotal in driving short-covering surges and squeeze scenarios. Insiders (~2%) • Very low—indicates limited executive-level holdings, albeit with some recent insider buying noted earlier . ⸻ ⚖️ Squeeze Dynamics Recap Owner Segment % of Total Shares Institutions ~55% Hedge Funds ~19% Retail (Public) ~23% Insiders ~2% • With ~30–35% of float already shorted and approximately 23% held by retail, there’s meaningful likelihood of a retail-driven short squeeze, especially if institutional and hedge fund shorts begin covering. • Institutional shares are generally long and may add stability—though large institutional selling could suppress squeeze momentum. • A key watch is any shift in institutional or hedge fund stake, particularly through filings (13F) or high-cost borrow rates which signal short reluctance to cover. ⸻ 🧭 Watch Areas 1. Evolving Institutional Positions – A shift in 13F filings might indicate whether institutions are buying or exiting. 2. Retail Volume & Option Flow – Heavy retail accumulation in calls or big block trades can ignite a squeeze. 3. Short Interest & Borrow Cost Trends – Persistent high borrow rates suggest strained short positioning. Let me know if you’d like alerts on institutional activity or detailed breakdown by top holders!

ThinkingOfTheOldDays

fintwit favorite $PCT up bigly this morning, a specialty plastics recycler from what I understand

SPAC_Time

[PureCycle Announces $300 Million Capital Raise; Outlines Growth Plan for One Billion Pounds of Installed Capacity with Projected EBITDA of $600 Million Per Year By 2030](https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/industrial-and-manufacturing/purecycle-announces-300-million-capital-raise-outlines-growth-plan-for-1040340) \- PCT PCTTW PCT stock up almost 20% to $14.10 on news.

imstaringataplant

And I only got 1 upvote on my PCT comment yesterday...

IronMike4Life

Someone post about PCT! It's 16.89 days to cover and it's about to explode!

imstaringataplant

is anyone vibing on PCT yet?

Kirk_lucas

Just come across PCT. What’s your thoughts on this now?

imstaringataplant

It would be cool if PCT broke out. any news about the augusta plant?

imstaringataplant

Is PCT actually waking up or is this just me huffing copium out of duster cans again?

imstaringataplant

Any other PCT bagholders? Got 375 shares at $10.65 avg. Thinking about just holding it bc wtfn

Nick6818

PCT fundamentals OK Short pressure high Short-term volatility may increase Key support and resistance levels at $15 and $25 are of concern

gamesdire

PCT fundamentals OK Short pressure high Short-term volatility may increase Key support and resistance levels at $15 and $25 are of concern

imstaringataplant

I could finally get out of my PCT shares with a teeny profit...

imstaringataplant

I've lost $12k between CAPR, RDDT, LUNR, and PCT only one I see possibly coming back in the next 2 years is RDDT. Such is life.

astrophysics23

Alright you plastic-pilled legends, gather ’round. It’s time to talk about PureCycle ($PCT) — a company that turns trash into high-purity cash… and is about to turn short sellers into mulch. 📈 THE BULL CASE (AKA “WHY THIS STOCK IS A LIT FUSE”): • 🏭 Factory Online: Shorts bet Ironton wouldn’t work. It works. 90%+ uptime. Resin flowing. Bears seething. • 💵 Revenue Printing: First-ever revenue just dropped ($1.6M) — no more “pre-revenue startup” cope. • 🔬 P&G Is Testing It: Procter & f\*\*\*ing Gamble is in final stages of testing their resin. Big leagues only. They've also promoted their partnership at conferences. • 📦 15 MILLION Pounds of Resin Ready: Literal mountains of plastic just sitting, waiting for a mega-deal. • 🧠 Stanley Druckenmiller Bought In: Billionaire macro god said “yes.” Shorts should’ve said “no.” • 🫣 Short Interest is UNREAL: • Over 50 MILLION shares short • Over 36% of float • 16.8 days to cover Translation: this thing farts and shorts will panic-buy each other’s grandma’s house. 🔒 INSIDERS HOLDING TIGHT • Execs and early investors are locked in like chastity belts at Comic-Con. • That means the tradable float is TINY. Add 50M short shares on top? That’s a squeeze cocktail with a rocket chaser. ESG? MORE LIKE ES-GEESUS Recycling plastic into virgin-grade gold. Whole industry’s broken, and these guys are fixing it while shorts are still Googling “what is polypropylene.” For real though, I've spent years reviewing every conference call, reviewing technical reports, and talking to engineers. And I didn't post until now because I didn't want to post something when there was still doubt. But now, there's no doubt. These guys are gonna pull it off. ⸻ TL;DR: Bears bet on failure. They got a functioning plant and 15M pounds of premium goop instead. Stan D’s in. P&G’s testing. Shorts are trapped in a polymer death spiral. This is ESG meets WSB. Green tech with red candles for bears. Not financial advice. Just a guy who thinks plastic is sexy when it prints. Do your own DD

astrophysics23

But I didn't submit DS, I submitted about PCT which is above 500mm

-medicalthrowaway-

It’s coming off that really messes me up. I just wrapped up PCT on my 2nd cycle

Obidad_0110

Big fan of long dated out of the money calls, just not AMD. Great play when something has a theoretical sound business model but suffering short term hiccups. If you like risk: PCT, AsTs, MP, TE, JOBY. Loaded with Beta and may lose your ass.

Londonskaya1828

I have held CRWD ever since they crashed all those computer systems. I have sold 30 PCT and plan to keep the rest. I am not adding to my position as I know nothing about this company, I merely took advantage of a once in a lifetime opportunity. However, they do have strong sales growth and low debt.

WinstonSalemSmith

There are no stupid questions, only stupid answers. I sold a lot of equities from Oct-mid April and bought a gold fund GLD, a short duration US bond fund (SGOV 5 PCT interest), an intl bond fund (BNDX 4 PCT interest). I am buying United Healthcare UNH right now, I bought back some AMZN @ 175 and some European equity EUAD fund and EADS which makes Airbus planes. Ticker is probably EADSY. I started selling because of Buffet, so I sold 50 PCT of my AMZN at 210. It then rose to 240 I think. I am also thinking about buying a rare book, ie a collectible, but that would be a new direction.

WinstonSalemSmith

Yes, agree. I just think it is important to clarify that selling has a cost and that holding cash (as Buffet does) means holding treasuries and making money on interest payments. There is a mistaken belief among buy and hold investors that holding cash means not buying something like SGOV. Ie, they imply you hold cash and lose money via inflationary effects. SGOV pays 4.9 PCT annually.

WinstonSalemSmith

Agree. But the main thing is the capital gains tax, let's say if you sold 100K and 70K was profit. Also, assume you put the 100K into SGOV or BNDX and achieved a 4-5 PCT return.

WinstonSalemSmith

I am not buying, individual shares are always risky. I would buy the EUAD ETF instead as it gives you broad exposure. I also believe that Rheinmetall will keep going higher, but I am advising a relative to sell 25 PCT of their shares when the ADR hits 400.

noplanman_srslynone

I walked from Mexico to Canada on the PCT in 2005. You get to choose beautiful morning poop spots every day. I made it 1300 miles in 2013 but my achilles got sprained and I had to walk 20 miles out on it. Toughened me up for the bol / bear debate.

lostbanbet

Reread my comment dude. PCT is picomancer. The class added in Dawntrail. It does more DPS than BLM and has uptime when bosses are untargetable

lostbanbet

Still main BLM? They massacred your class with PCT this expat

-medicalthrowaway-

Jesus fucking christ I feel like shit Decided to get off the gear, just started PCT a couple days ago, dick isn’t working Why the fuck am I doing this to myself I don’t want kids anyway I’ll give it a week. If I don’t feel better I’m jumping back on to blast and cruise

noplanman_srslynone

Sorry I forgot about the tariffs. When you hike the PCT and get dirt in your food we call it trail spice. Maybe try trail spice cube?

Nemarus_Investor

Yes. Generally you start with your own country, then file a PCT application, then from there you pick countries.

YLedbetter10

I’ve been watching it all week. I like how quickly it moves up when there’s volume. Reminds me of $PCT’s price action

FistEnergy

US Q4 CORE PCE REVISED UP TO +2.7% PACE FROM +2.5% US PENDING HOME SALES INDEX -4.6% TO 70.6 IN JAN - NAR US JAN PENDING HOME SALES -5.2% FROM JAN 2024 - NAR U.S. STOCKS EXTEND FALL, NASDAQ DOWN 1.00 PCT I timed the market by moving $50000 from VOO to SGOV last month and it looks like the right decision, despite all the downvotes. Macro conditions are not unforseeable. You can take advantage and profit.

swampassOG

#PCT

trent_upscale

PCT is a company

SenBaka

I need PCT guy to buy $4m more

Upper_Maintenance_41

PCT’s Balance Sheet Is In Trouble PCT needs to start ramping sales in 2025 and hit profitability soon after if it wants to avoid issuing shares and falling into a debt spiral. It also needs funds to pay for the construction of the Augusta plant. PCT has an accumulated deficit of $568.7 million all-time and a deficit of $224.5 million in the first 3 quarters of 2024. The company can’t spend $45.9 million on operations + interest much longer. The company used $41.8 million in unrestricted cash (including $9.2 million for the Augusta plant and the Denver sorting facility) and $2.6 million in restricted cash in Q3. Despite this high cash usage, the $18 million in bond sales and $90 million in money raised in September allowed PCT to end the quarter with $93.7 million in cash ($10 million of which is restricted). After the quarter ended, the firm put $35.9 million into an escrow account for building the Augusta plant. The company needs to spend another $11 million on pre-construction for the Augusta plant in the next few quarters which will force it to raise more money. Neither debt nor equity are good options because the company has $14.6 million in quarterly interest payments and dilution would hurt the stock. PCT has $117.6 million in revenue bonds it can sell for 80 cents on the dollar like a previous sale. That would give the firm $94.1 million in cash. If you add the $93.7 million it has in cash to the $94.1 million from revenue bond sales and subtract the $35.9 million Augusta escrow payment, the firm has $151.9 million to spend. At the current burn rate, that’s only about 3-4 quarters of runway. That doesn’t include Q4, meaning the firm could be in a bind as early as mid-2025. The $200 million line of credit with Sylebra should only be used in an emergency because its 17.5% interest rate could cause a debt spiral very quickly. PCT Still Had No Sales Despite Inventory Build; Will Sales Start In Q4? We must project near-term sales given the high bankruptcy risk PCT faces in 2H 2025. I will include all pertinent information in a difficult situation to forecast. Not even PCT’s management is willing to give EBITDA guidance for 2025. Firstly, the analyst revenue consensus is $6.55 million in Q4 and $93.62 million in 2025. The firm isn’t expected to be profitable until 2028, but having sales should lower the burn rate. If the stock rises on the firm achieving its first commercial sales, it could be the perfect time to issue shares to strengthen the balance sheet. Management stated it needs to get to 40-50% utilization to breakeven at Ironton. Remember, even though Ironton is at 13% utilization, it hasn’t made any sales. That calculation only works if pellets are sold. Furthermore, management stated it needs to get to 80-90% utilization at Ironton for the company to breakeven, not including capex. This means the company will still be losing money if it is at 85% utilization while building out Augusta. That would still be a better situation than where we are today. I’m confused when management expects PCT to start commercial sales. On the Q3 call in November management said it would have material sales in Q4 and ramp into 2025. However, in its December 2024 slide deck which I highlighted below, it says to expect reportable sales in Q1 2025. I’m leaning towards expecting no sales in Q4, but there might be a nominal amount from its 2 tiny fiber customers. The cash burn will be in focus in the Q4 report especially if the firm doesn’t sell any revenue bonds between now and the report. I expect a stock decline at some point this year when investors focus on the balance sheet. PureCycle Technologies December Deck Highlighted By Author Two Tea Leaves I like reading the details of SEC filings to see if I can find any tea leaves. I found 2 interesting points. Firstly, P&G pushed back its license deal’s deadline with PCT from year-end 2024 to Q1 2025. The start of sales provision states PCT must reach 70% of nameplate production by the end of Q1 or PCT will be subject to claw back provisions. This is confusing because it’s highly unlikely PCT will get to 70% of nameplate production by the end of Q1. Why not just extend it until the end of 2025? There is a low probability P&G actually acts upon its claw back provisions. The creation of PCT has worked out well for P&G because the CPG conglomerate didn’t have to pay for the $568.7 million in accumulated deficits and it is being given the option to use PCT’s recycled pellets (unfortunately they are compounded). Secondly, the former CFO Michael Dee paid $620k to move the deadline for his restricted shares to vest if Leidos determines Ironton is operational from year-end 2024 to year-end 2026. On the one hand, it’s good he has the confidence that Ironton will eventually be operational. On the other hand, it would have been more positive if he moved it to year-end 2025. It would terrible for shareholders if it takes another 2 years to get Ironton operational. Within the filing, it says "the Ironton, Ohio plant has not been certified as operational by Leidos." Considering that a 3rd party independent monitoring and verification company said Ironton wasn’t operational as of year-end 2024, I think it’s likely PCT had minimal sales at best in Q4. Maybe PCT sold its 2.5 million pounds of compounded PP inventory and some of the pellets it produced in Q4. However, I’m certain Ironton wasn’t operating at scale with all of its pellet production sold. In fact, that might not occur for at least another few quarters, making bankruptcy risk high, in my opinion

Upper_Maintenance_41

Problems With Producing Virgin-Like Recycled Polypropylene On Spec I don’t think PCT’s partnerships with industrial companies in the automotive, upholstery, and carpet industries are particularly valuable because these businesses can’t advertise their use of recycled plastics to consumers. The use of virgin PP combined with recycled PP (compounded pellets) shows PCT is struggling to produce virgin-like recycled PP on spec. Selling recycled PP to small firms like Beverley Knits to make rugs produced at low scale won’t move the needle. P&G using PureFive recycled PP without any virgin plastic mixed in for its CPG products is the holy grail. Unfortunately, P&G is only considering potentially working with PCT’s compounded material. Just getting P&G to review PCT’s product doesn’t equate to an order. The fact that PCT has 2.5 million pounds of compounded inventory without selling anything speaks volumes about the spec issues. Originally, PCT was supposed to produce virgin-like recycled PP for all end markets without customization. I am concerned that PCT is testing various recipes and making adjustments to produce a variety of compounds with unique percentages of virgin PP for different end markets. The more customized a product requires, the harder it is to scale. Management called the fiber compound application “operationally tricky.” They also said, “there are numerous adjustments that need to be made to fine-tune the process, both in terms of compounding recipe as well as the customer fiber operational variables.” I have been harping on PCT’s inability to produce ultra-pure recycled resin on spec for a few years now. I was surprised to see the company finally support my thesis with one of their slides. As you can see from the slide below, 100% PureCycle UPR PP has a less than 20% contrast ratio which measures opacity. This isn’t as good as virgin PP resin which is less than 10%. Furthermore, it has a below 20 yellowness index value which is above virgin PP’s 0 value. PCT needs to use a clarifier to increase opacity and lower yellowing which will add costs and could cause health risks. Clarifiers are nucleating agents that clear plastic and increase molding ability. PureCycle Technologies Q3 Deck As I mentioned in the introduction, SK geo centric’s JV with PCT was cancelled in October 2024. Specifically, the two companies had plans to construct a plant in Ulsan, South Korea that would produce 120 million pounds of recycled PP. I believe if Ironton was operating at scale, SK would have pushed harder to implement the technology in South Korea. The press release says, “The two sides are open to working together to find an alternative location in South Korea.” This confuses me because the location has little to do with executing the complex technology in a cost-effective manner at scale. PCT Only Has Agreements To Sell To Tiny Partners The small partners PCT has named won’t move the needle. We can look at the size of the firms PCT mentioned in its slide deck. According to LinkedIn, Beverly Knits has 201-500 employees and MiniFIBERS has 11-50 employees. These are likely the 2 companies PCT has offtake agreements with to accept its compounded PP within the fiber end market. Carpet/rugs don’t need to be clear; they can be made with low-quality cheap recycled PP. These products don’t need to be food grade. Few end users would buy a carpet or rug because it is made with some recycled material, meaning PCT’s compound can’t be sold at a premium. PureCycle Technologies Q3 Deck Annotated By Broken Business Models On the other hand, P&G has 108k employees and owns the CPG brands PCT would love to supply with recycled pellets. Unfortunately, even though PCT is using technology created by P&G, it is far from nabbing this giant potential customer at scale. PCT only completed the first step which is to provide P&G with compounded material that the CPG conglomerate can test. PCT estimates it can provide compounded PP to P&G for production in Q2 or Q3 2025, but that’s far from certain. There is no requirement for P&G to go beyond the test phase. Now that PCT has some compounded product in inventory which it is giving customers for testing and trials, it is clear that the offtake agreements mentioned in the SPAC presentation in 2020 weren’t set in stone. This lack of initial demand is partially because the virgin-like PureFive can’t be produced at scale on spec. However, it’s disconcerting some of the original customers referred to in the slide below can’t take some compounded product which PCT believes can sell at high volume give its cheaper price than PureFive. As of now, the offtake agreements in 2020 to sell the first 2 years of production don’t seem to be leading to sales in 2025.

Upper_Maintenance_41

In the next section, I will discuss the increased costs of PCT’s new Denver, Pennsylvania plant which sorts feedstock. However, I’d just like to mention here it’s already at 80%-85% of nameplate capacity within a few months of operation. If the feedstock evaluation unit properly translated into scaled production, Ironton would have reached nameplate production in a similar timeframe. Instead, we are 1 year out from the plant’s launch hoping for a high teens percent of nameplate capacity. The Denver plant’s nameplate capacity is 22k pounds per hour which is 193 million pounds per year if it’s run 24/7 and 96 million pounds per year if it’s run 50% of the time. If PCT’s future PP recycling plant in Augusta, Georgia becomes operational, the Denver sorting plant can serve it along with the plant in Ironton. As of November 2024, management projected the Augusta plant to come on-line in 2.5 years. Costs Are Increasing Via New Denver Plant Even though PCT was founded 10 years ago, up until last year the company hadn’t realized it couldn’t use regular feedstock to recycle PP at Ironton. Specifically, the firm assumed feedstock would be 95% to 98% PP. However, it can be as low as 65%. This created the need for another facility in Denver, Pennsylvania which sorts the PP before it’s sent to Ironton. The new Denver plant is 474 miles away from Ironton which creates additional shipping costs (via train). The Denver plant is 325k square feet. PCT has a 15-year lease with minimum payments of $52.3 million per year. The lease is subject to 3-3.5% annual escalators. This adds to more of the problematic cost overruns that I discussed in a previous article. Specifically, I showed the SPAC presentation slide which only included $31 million in yearly operating costs. Just this new Denver plant alone exceeds that optimistic assumption. In Q3 2024 alone, PCT had $31.3 million in operating costs and expenses. That’s virtually identical to the $31.6 million in the prior year due to a never-ending amount of workarounds management needed to do to increase scale. I believe going from 13% to 100% of nameplate capacity will require more workarounds which will further balloon expenses. Furthermore, the company had $14.6 million in interest expenses which brought it to $45.9 million in total costs in Q3 2024. The SPAC presentation had Ironton only earning $97 million in annual gross revenue. Its costs from Q3 alone eat half of that estimate. As I will detail later on, if the firm doesn’t start generating sales later this year, it has the potential to fall into a debt spiral. Dustin mentioned PCT having strong unit economics on the Q3 call, but gave no numbers to back this up. The Price Of Polypropylene Is Declining PCT’s end markets are facing challenges which is lowering pricing. Furthermore, the firm won’t get a price premium over virgin PP when selling recycled PP into industrial-type end markets because it can’t be marketed to consumers. The original selling point for PCT was that the company could sell virgin-like recycled post-consumer PP to CPG companies who would pay a premium to be able to display “recycled plastic” in their packaging. This label would increase consumer demand. The best product would be a fully recycled PP virgin-like food grade plastic such as a yogurt cup. Neither compounded recycled PP nor recycled PP sold for industrial usage hit that mark. Besides not being able to market the product, some industrial usage like in the production of rugs/floor mats don’t require the plastic to be colorless and transparent. Lower-quality recycled plastic won’t get a price premium over virgin PP. With that in mind, let’s look at the weak pricing environment for virgin PP. Weak virgin PP pricing pressures recycled PP pricing since they compete (PCT is trying to get a premium over virgin PP). In North America, PP pricing was strong from January to May 2024 with pellet pricing rising due to increased demand and less supply. The market took a turn lower in the 2nd half of the year due to weak demand and low feedstock pricing. According to Plastic News, prices fell 4 cents per pound in September, 6 cents in October, 3.5 cents in November, and finally an additional 2.5 cents in December. You can see in the chart below, pricing is near a 16-year low. Sometimes investors forget PCT is selling a commodity that is impacted by supply and demand.

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PureCycle's pellet production at Ironton PureCycle Technologies Q3 Deck PCT likes to produce as much recycled PP as it can in short bursts (to discover limits), but those are never maintained for the entire quarter. Specifically, it produced 1 million pounds in a week; that would have been 13 million pounds in the quarter had it maintained such a rate. Similarly, it produced 200k pounds in a day which would equal 1.4 million pounds in a week. Finally, it peaked at 10k pounds in an hour which would be 240k pounds in a day. Peak production is a vanity metric because it can’t be maintained. Management mentioned on the Q3 call that in the prior 4 weeks, it produced $400,000 per week in sellable compounded product. That only equates to $20.8 million in yearly sales. Of course, those are hypothetical sales because PCT didn’t sell any of the compounded product (might not be on spec). Remember, compounded product is sold at lower margins because it’s mixed with virgin plastic. This isn’t the virgin-like fully recycled plastic that was promised originally.

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The analysis was someone on SA which Reddit does not allow links to. I copied and pasted it here but I can DM you a link. Skip to content PureCycle Technologies Is Already In Cost Hell Jan. 20, 2025 4:07 PM ETPureCycle Technologies, Inc. (PCT) StockPG, PCTTU, PCTTW, PG:CA, PCT Alex Pitti 4.07K Followers (20min) Comments (18) About this article Ticker Analyst rating Strong Sell Price at publication $9.67 Last price $10.65 Change since publication 10.13% S&P 500 change since publication 1.89% Days since publication 30 Summary     PureCycle Technologies had $0 of commercial sales in Q3 2024 despite having significant inventory and processing record feedstock amounts.     PCT faces rising costs and has limited offtake agreements. It is struggling to meet its original SPAC deal promises.     The company’s Ironton plant operates at only 13% of nameplate capacity, with ongoing production issues and escalating costs.     PCT's balance sheet is in trouble. Its high cash burn gives it high bankruptcy risk if sales don't start soon. Happy woman placing plastic bottle into recycling bin. Dougal Waters Another Quarter Of $0 Sales Despite processing a record 3.5 million pounds of feedstock and having 2.5 million pounds of compounded recycled polypropylene (PP) in inventory, PureCycle Technologies (NASDAQ:PCT) had $0 of commercial sales in Q3 2024. I was correct in my September article when I said the firm would miss estimates for $3.54 million in Q3 sales. In the past few quarters, PCT has been mired with production problems causing it to pivot to compounded PP (recycled PP mixed with virgin PP) because fully recycled PP (PureFive) hasn’t met spec for customers yet. It’s hard to follow a business with no sales and changing prospects because there’s not much to latch onto. Everything is a hypothetical projection until it actually happens. That’s why you have my articles to analyze the changes. One example of a change is the recent decision by PCT and SK geo centric to cancel their joint venture (JV) to produce a recycling PP plant in South Korea. In this article, I will review all the pertinent details in the everchanging PCT story. The 3 most important aspects I will focus on are rising costs, limited offtake agreements, and the weakening balance sheet. PCT is struggling to produce what was originally promised in the SPAC deal. The original goal was to produce recycled PP that’s just as good as virgin PP using post-consumer waste at scale sold to major CPG (consumer packaged goods) firms such as P&G (PG) at a profit. Still Struggling To Get Near Nameplate At Ironton PCT’s flagship first scaled plant for recycling PP is in Ironton, Ohio. It has nameplate capacity of 107 million pounds per year of recycled pellets. As you can see below, pellet production has been mediocre so far. It reached 3.5 million pounds in Q3 which is only about 13% of nameplate quarterly capacity. Every time PCT tries to increase production, another issue occurs that the company needs to spend months resolving. This isn’t just my opinion. CEO Dustin Olson made this point on the Q3 call. He said,     “every time that we push into a new boundary of the plant operations, we will find new constraints that we have to work through to get there.”

burner-1234

Pls link if you could Sounds like that analysis is mistaking compounding for “not working”. Everything single customer will compound their plastic in order to get the desired color, transparency, physical properties etc. PCT is choosing to get involved here as they will capture a portion of that value chain as well as more successfully imbed themselves in their customers. Last part is just false, you will see they announced first sale in January. They have dozens of offtake agreements that they are currently focusing on turning into POs. The mega cap customers take time but they are getting there.

SenBaka

Im just following the best YOLOs from our karma overlords I got VST $220c and PCT $13.5c both exp 2/28. I’m so confident this shit moons I alr feel the regret of not having bought more

Neel_Crashkari

PCT