United Parcel Service Inc
UPS CEO talks upbeat earnings, business model pivot, price increases, and hiring. UPS CEO Carol Tomé joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss better-than-expected earnings, hiring challenges, supply chain disruptions, and the overall outlook for the logistics company.
I'm doing legal research & stumbled into this new lawsuit against GME that isn't in the news yet. A senior VP sued GameStop under Sarbanes-Oxley on Jan. 7, claims he was fired, silenced over reporting rising shipping costs due to ending UPS contract that will have a "material impact" on earnings.
Well the numbers your seeing don’t exactly add up to whats in the trucks. In LTL business you can have many different shipments which are pooled together at hubs and then moved the distance that the Tesla truck is targeting. So yes when you see the tonnage numbers it doesn’t take into account for consolidation. FedEx UPS Amazon and all have higher shipment numbers but low weight per shipment. What you really need to grasp is weight and cube. You need to research truckload numbers and ltl numbers. US tonnage number don’t tell the story
I make my trades before earnings. I don't need to wait to earnings to know what is going to happen. Large investments are not hinged on earnings calls. Maybe hedge fund managers and investor like Jim Cramer who only know what they read. But I know the supply side of the business, the marketing side, etc. For example, when COVID hit I immediately knew there was an increase in technology stocks so I bought those up. When the lock downs started, I looked for retail stock that could stay open. Target could stay open because they sold groceries. I then checked on their logistics and learned the carriers were making routine deliveries to Target stores but the outgoing e-commerce shipments were more than could be loaded into a FedEx/UPS delivery truck. So I bought Target intraday for $89/share I believe in April 2020. I then sold it in July 2021 as the COVID cash was running out. I didn't wait for earnings. I knew the earnings would be a surprise and I'd make money. Whales already have earnings backed in by the time the earnings come out. And it's also trying to predict what the retail investors and other firms will do when earnings hit. The only thing I watch out for is unexpected information. Maybe somebody on the earnings call uses the wrong word. The finger is always on the button. Or maybe they use a word that people will jump at. When it's reactionary, I almost never hold a position for more than 3 days if I'm actively trading. In periods of certainty, I hold long positions. In periods of uncertainty, I hold short-term positions. And a whale, to me, is an individual investor, not a fund manager.
I really wonder why Tesla didn't start with local delivery truck (UPS to beer delivery truck) sized vehicles. It would show proof of concept for a vehicle that only needs to go from the warehouse to the local delivery location and with it being electric, idling would not be an issue. Until the battery tech improves, the long haul freight still seems a little out of reach due to weight/capacity/distance. But this wouldn't be an issue for the smaller box trucks in urban/suburban environments. Crank out a bunch of fleet vehicles for local deliveries first then once the tech has caught up start transitioning the larger freight vehicles.
> Google has all that info Yeah, and anyone who's researched this at all can give you an estimate. Team driving isn't very common, almost no loads are just at GVW, and about 75% of trips are 250 miles or less. > If they’re going 70, you already can’t drive for 10 hours without needing a charge No one is allowed to drive 10 hours straight. The big restriction on how many hours a truck can drive isn't the fuel, it's the driver. Between required breaks and maximum hours during a duty period, trucks spend a decent amount of time sitting and waiting for their driver to be ready. The big hurdle to really widespread adoption is going to be charging away from destinations. Companies like Pepsi or Walmart or UPS have big factories and/or warehouses or depots that the trucks come back to every day. They can have charging there and make any trip up to 250 miles with no more chargers. They can also have chargers at a lot of their destinations, which means 500 miles trips are possible. Although again, many drivers will probably have to stop during a 500 mile trip just because they need (or are required to take) a break or won't be allowed to drive anymore during their duty period. Trips longer than 500 miles will probably be possible for a company like Walmart or Pepsi or UPS if they're delivering loads that are well below max GVW. I'd guess just with charging at the customer's location Tesla Semi could easily serve 50% of the market? It'll take years and years for Tesla to ramp up production enough to meet demand for 50% marketshare of new trucks. If the Semi gets anywhere close to that in the next few years it'll be a massive success. And long term nearly 100% of trucking routes can be covered by adding megachargers to recharger while drivers have to stop anyways. The big advantage that charging for Semi has is that trucking routes are much more predictable than regular retail car buyers trips. Tesla can work with customers to set up charging at the places it's needed most and is more efficient. And given the amazing economics of EVs vs diesel, I'd guess that most customers would bend over backwards to make it work. Tesla has more experience installing high speed chargers than anyone else in the world, it'll take time, but there's no reason they can't have megachargers covering a good percentage of long haul routes within 5 years or so. I could see Tesla Semis being able to replace 75% of all trucks on the road from a logistics standpoint, within 5 years or so? The bottleneck isn't any of the concerns you have, the bottle neck is how fast can Tesla build them. Once the first few customers prove out that the Semi can actually perform, there's going to be a huge waiting list for customers waiting to get one.
I once had UPS put a package by my mailbox on the sidewalk instead of on my front porch. Someone came along (I could see them on my ring camera) and they brought it to my attention by putting it on my front porch. They did not open it, blow up the the doll and fuck it in my front yard hoping I didn’t find out… (ok, I will admit it wasn’t an actual blow up doll, but me saying they didn’t put on my new sweat pants isn’t very funny). You get the point OP… don’t steal money or sweat pants… or blow up dolls.
Amazon in Chicago is still using the regular Dodge vans and whatever company makes the UPS/Fedex trucks. There was one image of Rivians being used in the prime fleet but I have yet to see one, on my way to work at 6-7AM an entire road that connects the Northside Chicago (Skokie) distro center to mainland Chicago is literally packed with Amazon delivery vehicles taking up the entire street all of them being ICE not electric (maybe Hybrid no clue)
# Tickers of Interest - TL;DR **Gamma Max Cross** * [EFA](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#EFA) 01/20 65.5P for $1.65 or less * [UPS](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#UPS) 01/20 180P for $6.10 or less * [KR](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#KR) 01/20 48P for $1.90 or less * [SPXS](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SPXS) 01/20 20P for $1.55 or less * [NAT](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#NAT) 01/20 3.5C for $0.25 or less **Delta Neutral Cross** * [MSFT](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#MSFT) 01/20 240P for $8.75 or less * [WBD](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#WBD) 01/20 10P for $0.45 or less * [DIS](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#DIS) 01/20 95P for $3.90 or less * [GOLD](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#GOLD) 01/20 16C for $0.50 or less * [JETS](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#JETS) 01/20 18.86C for $0.40 or less # Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today. This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0. For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals. The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV. # Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle * If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open. * Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. * I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in. * The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. # FAQ - Because others have already asked. * These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? * No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. * Are you entering all these plays? * No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn. * You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean? * The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not. * Where are the crayons? I only see words. * Click the links above. * Have you back-tested this? * Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error) * What is the historical performance? * The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.85 with a 67% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 49% and 72%. (Stats as of 2022-10-28)
I invest in 10 individual stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Google, Lows, HD, Texas Instruments, UPS. Ones I know are stable to the consumer and world. The rest are ETFs SCHD, SCHB, QQQM and thinking now about SPDR sector ETFs. Dividend aristocrats/Kings are a good start.
While I wouldn't want one for OTR (Over the road) trucking, 500 miles range is just fine for 1 day drive out and make delivery type stuff, something I spent several years doing. Most days I would drive under 300 miles, multiple trips of taking a full trailer out and making 1-5 LTL drops around the area, with each drop taking 15-60 minutes while the truck is parked. I almost never put in more than 9hrs in a day. That leaves 15hrs for the truck to be sitting at base, plugged in and charging up for the next day. I just wish they would really focus on electric for things like all the Prime, UPS, & FedEx trucks.
I’m sure UPS would be happy to hire motivated individuals who know how to work safely and professionally. Especially going into the holiday season + many retirements coming up for aging drivers. Amazon should get in front of this because a walk off would hurt them as well as UPS and looking around the corner, UPS may possibly have to deal with a walk off as well due to contract negotiations starting up this April with the Teamsters Union.
I think---and I'm just an asshole here, I don't know--that maybe they include their online sales in their Black Friday sales (not just physically what's in the store). Me. I make it a point to never leave my house. I didn't go to a single store but I bought a shit-ton online. Not gifts, because I don't really do Christmas or any other cunt-fuck religious holiday. I'm just buying stuff that I need/want and I can find good deals on. And to your other point, almost nothing I order comes in the mail anyway. What do the UPS and FedEx numbers look like I wonder. However, I have noticed a discrepancy in "the news". Most of what I have seen reported is that there are record Black Friday sales, but Bloomberg is called black Friday "muted"--whatever the fuck that means. I think that means not good. So hopefully we're not just figuring out that news is unreliable. I read somewhere that the average household savings is a mere seventh of what it was in 2020. Couple with inflation, it's hard to imagine people having that much money to spend. But maybe people are saying "fuck it! I'm gonna buy anyway" (maybe bankrupt the credit card debt)? Who knows?
I live in what the US Census Bureau charitably calls the (Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers "Metropolitan" Statistical area)[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northwest_Arkansas]. Amazon has been using these exclusively around here for like a year now. Only UPS orders we seem to get anymore are third-party fulfillment/drop-shippers.
> only a matter of time. UPS and TruSimple have been running autonomous trucks on the road, delivering cargo (albeit in a pilot program) since 2019. No Tesla involved. https://futurism.com/the-byte/ups-self-driving-trucks It seems that they expanded the coverage of that pilot program: https://www.fleetowner.com/technology/article/21180303/tusimple-ups-top-160000-autonomous-miles-together-expand-to-east-coast I believe TruSimple was in some trouble due to some ties with China and went through some management changes semi-recently.
No, what I said was that BEV is fine for passenger cars that sit around 95% doing nothing. I never said it was fine for short distance vehicles. BEV is not a great fit for revenue generating vehicles where the vehicles need to be available at a high up time rate. Taking a fleet of vehicles and installing charging infrastructure to charge all those vehicles overnight is a huge challenge and one that companies like UPS, FedEx and Amazon are facing and that the transit bus companies have already tackled and determined it wasn't worth it. Low usage vehicles would fit the same category as a passenger vehicle. For instance, a mom and pop shop that has a delivery truck. This could certainly be a BEV and H2 would likely be a really poor fit for that type application. Yes, I'm a firm believer that multiple solutions are the best approach and people that claim one is better than another for every circumstance just don't know the industry.
EVs are estimated to be 40% cheaper in lifetime maintenance. Less belts, pumps, oil etc The fuel costs are also huge long term savings. In my area it’s $5.50/gal for gas and $0.11 kWH for residential electricity. Let’s spitball a UPS truck doing stop/go for 8mpg. The Rivian EDV gets 150mi on a 135kWH battery. $5.50 / 8 = $0.68 per mile $0.11 * 135 = $14.85 for a full battery / 150 mi = $0.10 per mile Someone check my math, I have brain damage
I ordered a new Computer and accessories online from Microsoft at 1130AM on Friday 11/25. Estimated delivery was to be on 11/30 at checkout. I shit you not, UPS was at my driveway at 1pm on Sat 11/26 hand delivering that order. His truck was empty and he looked refreshed. Never seen that from UPS here in the Midwest in the last 10 yrs.
The odd thing to me tho is that at USPS we have seen maybe a 5-10 uptick in parcels aka I have an apartment route and only like 10 packages more I usually have around 110-115 and been having like 117-126. Don’t know how UPS or FedEx or Amazon are. But I know when ups and Amazon are loaded on parcels they contract us to deliver for them too. And if they’re not bringing us more than the usual then where’s the online orders? Store pick up mostly?
Work for UPS, Amazon drivers are slightly above Uber drivers. No idea about professionalism, safety, or care of company property. But yeah, a shiny coat of wax and make it electric (we have multiple and are inefficient beyond expectations) put your money down on it.
In September, the company said it lost $138.5 million of the $1 billion in financing from private investors in public equity, also known as PIPE, to fund the merger. That same month, DWAC changed its mailing address to a UPS Store in Miami.
Can confirm. Even when I have alot of money I act as if I'm poor and everyone treats me like shit and constantly tells me stupid shit like "hey, I heard UPS is hiring and they have good benefits"! Bitch I've ran a small business for a decade... who do you think bought everything my small family owns lol, it ain't all from fucking Santa Claus.. But it's good to know the snakes from those that actually root for you unconditionally (almost fucking noone). So you know never to give them a penny
Have you seen FedEx? I’m still struggling to understand how they’re in business. They are consistently late. Like I can’t get something from them in 5-7 days. It’s always 8-10, except one time when they delivered in 3, instead of 2. They are a zombie company. I’m not saying UPS is great, but at least they’re stuff arrives on time. USPS still somehow has them all beat, even with their funding cuts. It’s still somehow really precise.
Best buy sucks. I ordered an apple 8 series watch for my wife because the starlight version wasn't available in the store. I just got the notification today that it was shipped UPS sure post which is some bootleg hybrid thing where they trade the package off the United States postal service. With a little research I also found out they only cover $100 insurance. I went on the chat feature explain my concerns with a disconnected on me three times with no response.
Amazon is literally advertising no interview warehouse jobs in my area, I think the issue really comes down to the private couriers being shit compared to your choice of pseudo-government postal service. When I see an international package coming UPS I am the opposite of excited, I spend my time waiting for it deciding if what I ordered is worth the additional customs cost and middle finger of a clearance fee from UPS. Meanwhile the same package would coast through with no/minimal duties if it was shipped Royal Mail, USPS, etc.
Hydrogen trucks are extremely underpowered, and they tend to overheat a lot. Gross weight of a truck and trailer is about 32-34k pounds. You see Amazon and UPS trucks with CNG a lot, and they have packages, their load is 6k pounds max, so at best, 40k pounds, and they struggle to keep their speed going uphill over a bridge. Hydrogen is not practical what so ever for trucks. The most were allowed to weigh is 80k pounds in most states, some are more. These CNG trucks won’t make it off the yard if they’re 80k gross
Anyone else getting worried on Amazon? I know most of their money is AWS - but still seems overall they just have a growth mindset/story that I'm worried they won't fulfill. I'd say I'm an Amazon superuser. I probably spend $1000 a month on it for my hobby but I actually buy $2000 worth of stuff and return half of it. They dont charge for shipping. If you return something after you open it they don't care - I've done this a lot. Sometimes they say they never got my package but I just complain and I get all my money back. The UPS store I go to in order to do returns is crowded with people like me returning a lot. Is this all worth it for them? I just find it hard to believe they are doing job monitoring this - if they enacted a $1 fee for returns after the first five items a month I'd prob be 95% as satisfied and stop ordering so much stuff I dont need.
Can you listen to me and keep an open mind here and just put Old Dominion up against FedEx and UPS and look at their growth and look at their metrics and look at a five-year chart and look at a 10 year chart and you will find which company is absolutely Superior. ticker is odfl, it's forming a cup and handle as we speak and you are welcome
And a partnership between two different companies who operate in two different domains proves... What, exactly? That's like saying UPS knows all about operating web stores because they partnered with Amazon to deliver packages... Good grief are you really that dense?
Way back, UPS would do layoffs on Jan 1. No idea what they do now since it's been a long time. Also, this wasnt tech staff or drivers. The result was a holiday crunch till Christmas, followed by slightly reduced volume plus job uncertainty through New Years. Very stressful for many
Worked for XPO and Estes the past 4 years and have never heard of a stoppage in G Freight. Talk to many others from OD/FedEx/Pitt OHio/Saia/UPS. I will ask them about it as well. We were flush with so much freight and pickups during the pandemic that we had to do a self freeze at our terminal for pickups because we had more freight than we could move. Lasted a month. We were that far behind. G Freight still moved on timed, everything else got moved as we got to it.