USL
United States 12 Month Oil Fund LP
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Can someone please explain in simple terms whether/how an ETP is inherently riskier than a corresponding ETF?
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Thank you, but just to clarify one thing. I do believe that oil prices may be close to peaking (unless there's a double choke point or ground invasion, but that's speculation I'm not betting on) , so my thesis is not so much about the oil price rising more or not. It's related to the futures curve which is expecting a steep and drastic drop in forward months. Simply expecting prices to hold will cause forward months to catch up to the spot, which will cause the oil price in the newspaper to look unchanged, but USL to peak.
Good call on the backwardation gap. I prefer expressing the same thesis through long-dated XLE calls over direct commodity exposure. You get leverage, defined risk, and equity re-rating when Q1 earnings hit with crude averaging $100+. USL captures the curve mispricing. XLE calls capture that plus the full multi-year regime shift. Already positioned since December and the thesis hasn’t fully priced in yet.
Hey man, it's an interesting trade idea but just want to play devil's advocate here. Your bet on back months being mispriced has its merits, but just be careful about underestimating OPEC+ response. Currently, Saudi and UAE aren't coordinating a response because oil prices are sitting at a sweet spot where they enjoy fiscal surplus without needing to do anything. It funds Vision 2030 and gives them geopolitical leverage without moving into demand destruction territory yet. Should oil reach $130 and beyond, you can bet your ass they'll be compelled to act one way or another - which is what the market is pricing in. The disruption is estimated (and currently pricing in) to be about 2-4 mbpd, which is coincidentally the spare capacity of Saudi and UAE (what they can deploy immediately to push down prices). If that happens, $USL will likely nosedive. Intuitively, this seems to be an inevitable outcome for the Saudis (be it under U.S pressure, or under their own initiative to prevent demand destruction). Unless of course, their spare capacity gets destroyed by Iran in the coming weeks.
So there's going to be no deal and the US is going to destroy Iran's infrastructure. Iran's going to retaliate and destroy the Gulf states' infrastructure. So no oil or other resources permanently once the desalination plants are gone. Who the hell are buying equities? World depression incoming. Long USL!!!
This is why I bought USL (rolling 12 months of oil futures). There are big forces that desperately want to rug the current price, but they can only do so much about what's already looking like a months-long slowdown.
USL (rolling 12 month oil futures)?
USL rising more than USO is extremely interesting means oil is starting to price in an increasingly long conflict
Yes but usually the headline oil futures like USO and BNO are only trading the nearest month future, so if oil tanks immediately and then goes back up in value, those futures etfs are fucked. If you look at longer term oil futures like USL or different months on actual futures (you gotta have specialist commodity trading access for this) it has barely been moved.
I bought USL which is almost the same just less volatile
Big W for people who were mad that they lost 5% on their portfolios and thought "fuck it if I can't beat them I'll join them" and liquidated everything for USO/USL.
Half my life saving is is USL 🤑
I'll admit I was deep in margin on UFPT , USL , MOD , STRL , POWL , AXOM . If I where still holding I would be down alot I can see how the ripple through the market causes a cascading effect . SFM , WING , CAVA if I didn't get out when I did I would be in bankrupt .
I was just looking at something like 3USL, +700% over the past 9 years. It’s such as a powerful Etf
There is a ton of oil specific ETFs like USO, USL, OILK, DBO, etc. all slightly different. Just Google and do your own research.
Hi everyone — been investing since July 2020 here forth is my stock portfolio. Most likely cashing out 3 years from now for house down payment. SPY - 17.62% RYCEY - 7.75% USL - 7.79% ICAGY - 5.84% WMT - 17.25% CCL - 12.21% NCLH - 1.33% RCL - 16.13% BAC - 7.30% Ethereum - 6.33% Feedback very much appreciated. (28M)
3USL or 3LUS is what you want to depending on base currency you want. Just use as much as you need to get target leverage.
I think USL or BOIL is better. USO did really shady stuff and they will continue doing so imo
> It makes me laugh how even professional hedge fund managers can’t beat VOO, so how did I expect to? It ain't *that* hard. You have a negligible amount of money in comparison to them, which offers some advantage. Plus you aren't answerable to multimillionaires that get antsy at anything resembling a long term bet. The hard part is beating it without increasing volatility, or beating it over relatively short timeframes. And hedge funds (depending on the fund) aren't really trying to provide higher returns than the market. They're hedges -- they aim to provide returns relatively uncorrelated with market returns to reduce the volatility of the portfolio of multimillionaires. > The only way I would have crushed Voo CRUSHING VOO would be very hard to do without taking on big risk. But beating it by a small amount, most of time... is possible. Like, being underweight in habitually underperforming sectors will likely do it by a small amount over decade type timeframes. But those habitually underperforming sectors also tend to be less volatile, so your portfolio volatility goes up. The other thing to remember is you can beat VOO with most of your money *in* VOO, only moving some elsewhere to take advantage of opportunities. Even though I've beaten it for a long time, my returns are only slightly better because I'm also not crazy, so most of my money is still in broad indexes. But like... during the Covid crash, one could guess who might be winners in a lockdown scenario. I threw money at FedEx and Zoom. That worked out quite well. When oil went negative, I threw some at USL. That worked out quite well. And so on. Or with 2022, the Fed was talking about rate hikes for a long time. If you'd shifted some money towards the value side of the S&P like VOOV... It lost 7.5% vs 20% in 2022. Of course, timing is everything, and even if you're careful, you'll still probably lose (relative to VOO) on half your bets. But upside can generally be bigger than downside, so all it takes is catching some big winners, and letting the small winners and small losers cancel out. Just for funzies, I looked back at trades since 2017... In terms of winning vs losing vs VOO, I'm 30-18, but in terms of actual dollars gained, we're talking a few grand a year. Given the time I've spent, probably not even worth bothering. But it's also like entertainment for me.
Example - 3x leveraged s&p500: 3USL on LSE. There are many leveraged UCITS ETFs, you can use justetf.com for searching
I heard Russia was stopping oil exports today so I threw some money at US oil stocks in anticipation of Chinese and Indian demand. USL BNO DBO https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/27/russia-to-ban-gasoline-exports-for-six-months
Energy always kind of scares me. It's like that poker saying about if you can't spot the sucker in the first 30 minutes, you're the sucker... Yeah, I'm the sucker. I am just crap at predicting what it's going to do. That said, I still bought USL and rode it up.
Nice, why focusing on MPC? I was thinking USL calls
USL was what I used, but there's a bunch
USL has the lowest roll costs Probably fewer minefields than trying to mess with futures options as a beginner
Yes it still makes sense to TLH. Your comment about lowering your basis is ultimately a moot point since you’d have the banked losses to offset the gain anyway down the road. If you end up using the banked losses on something else, say a home sale that exceeds the home gain exclusion, then so be it. At the end of the day you’re still better off for having losses at your disposal, sooner. Don’t let the tail wag the dog. This is an easier consideration when TLHing say a USL index to another USL index. If you are TLHing individual stocks then your belief in the security you are TLHing should be considered more so you don’t miss out on potential positive performance over the next 30 days. That situation aside, TLH away!
I don't know about others, but I bought USL, held it for less than 5 months, and sold for 55% gain.
Not necessarily.. it's more complicated.. I guess you could make it work, if you don't overleverage yourself and pay attention to margin requirements, but you need to be aware, that there are some additional risks and if you decide to go this way, you really should read up on how CFDs work. I'm not here to tell you what to do, but what I do is just look for alternatives that are available in the EU.. For example, instead of SPY, you can use VUSA, instead of QQQ, there's EQQQ or NQSE. Instead of UPRO, I used 3USL. Eu is still a huge market and there are alternatives for most of the popular US ETFs.
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I’ve recently been watching USL and CL.1 against SCO. If those first two fall I’m buying calls on SCO. SCO is a 2x inverse leveraged fund that inversely corresponds to the Bloomberg Commodity Balanced WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil index. It’s hella volatile so be careful. Not terribly expensive for current week options.
I didn't, it's nothing to do with USL lol
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If it is a sure bet that OIL is going to $140 then everyone will buy the ETFs connected with OIL and make billions. Easy money! Oil investments: SCL OIL USL OILK
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When the strategic petroleum reserve goes dry energy will go parabolic, USO/USL is cheap right now, next winter you will get amazing gains
USO used to be the worst long-term non-leveraged oil investment for cost because it was 100% in near-month futures, so it rolled 100% of its capital over every month (they since changed the rules). When the market is in contango, that means you lose money every month...or think of it as your share in USO owns fewer barrels of oil. The oil price is the same, but the ETF holds fewer futures so it's price is lower than it was 10-15 years ago. ​ USL is evenly split between the next 12 months, so it only rolls 8.3% every month and hasn't slowly bled as much as USO. If you really want to hold oil futures long term (why would you, just invest in oil companies or an industry-wide etf), you should probably buy USL.
Yep...There is also a cost in buying and selling the futures as well. USO used to be the worst non-leveraged oil investment for cost because it was 100% in near-month futures, so it rolled 100% of its capital over every month (they since changed the rules). USL is evenly split between the next 12 months, so it only rolls 8.3% every month and hasn't slowly bled as much as USO.
There are upsets in the round of 16 on. Just the initial 32 was perfectly set. USL yesterday had every home team win except Memphis out of 11 games and I know for a fact a lot of those were 3+ odds to win. A round Robin would have paid an insane rate.
Currently hold: CLF GGB Veon USL Bought KSS at bottom today hoping to dump tomorrow for a profit.
Right now I am only holding USL and CLF for a bit. Sold XOM on the rally. Bought veon on the crash Thursday and might dump it soon.
Not financial advice... I really like UNL & USL. They're based on the futures market for natural gas and oil in the U.S. UNG is another good one. Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures are doing quite well: [https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.quotes.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.quotes.html) Really like SLB. Get oil and gas exposure as well as renewables.
Many commodities would be impacted by this war in substantially greater ways than typical wars. I certainly wouldn't want to YOLO sunflower oil futures right now. (/s) Oil itself might go up, but make sure you're buying physical oil like USL (United States 12 Month Oil Fund) and not just buying oil company stocks. Those might go down, because most of these companies have partnerships with Russia that will come under sanctions and their investments lost. Unfortunately, that already went up, it's a bit late now; if the war doesn't happen, you might take a hit. Last month was the time to make these plays. Palladium (PALL) might go up, and hasn't yet. Russia is a major supplier. I wouldn't be that confident in soybeans right now, because China and Russia are increasing cooperation, and economic conflict with China could ramp up again. Gold is no longer used as a safe-haven, or a reserve, and does not move counter to the market, and so there is little reason to go there. I think defense stocks would be better than commodities. If nothing happens, they're a safe place to park money, and if there is conflict, Europe might actually start spending on defense.
How do you reconcile that with the rig count and frac spread count climbing every week? I'm not saying I agree with your overall thesis, and backwardation makes investing in futures or etfs like USL a tasty move even if prices stay flat, but people are drilling. I'm not sure if rig counts and frac spread counts are even fair to use as a measure of investment in shale gas/oil given that the total number of feet drilled per rig has gone way up as laterals have gotten so much longer. What are you looking at for the lack of investment? Do you have a source discussing this, because I'd like to learn more.
Margin is brutal in leveraged etfs **IF** you hold them long term. The more leverage you get the more expensive the margin. If you want a lesson in holding leveraged ETFs long term, compare the 2 year or 5 year performance of USL or USO with UCO. ​ Yes, the leveraged UCO fund wins if you get lucky: 1 month, 6 months, or 1 year time periods win the oil etf battle. However, it loses during some short periods (3 months for example) and it gets killed long term. ​ With ETFs, its really important to understand how they work. Every transaction or roll of an option/future/swap into a future product costs you money and those costs can be huge. The reason USL is up 30% over the last two years while USO and UCO are down huge (40-80% losses) is because they roll over less of their fund every month (USL vs USO) and have less leverage (USL/USO vs UCO).
There are EU equivalents for UPRO and TQQQ called 3USL and QQQ3, respectively.
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I've enough money in S&P funds and VTI that my overall returns are pretty close to the S&P return every year. I pick stocks here and there using a much smaller amount of money. However, pretending the money in those broad funds doesn't exist, and ignoring cash drag (rainy day cash is often in my brokerage account)... By year: * I've beat the S&P 4 of the last 5 years, generally by small amounts. Rode an oil stock down in 2019, which was enough to put me under the S&P return for the year. By trade: * Of my last 17 closed trades, 10-7. * Weighting for size of investment, 22.9% annualized excess return. However, a number of those are short term trades, well under a year. * Of my 24 open trades, 13-11. * Weighted for size of investment, 4.8% annualized excess return. Excess return of open positions by time period: * 12 weeks: -0.14% * 24 weeks: +3.3% * 12 months: +2.7% Strategy isn't well defined. It's generally large caps. Long term picks that I think have a good shot of beating the S&P, and taking advantage of what I perceive to be short term opportunities (e.g. buying ZM and FDX in march 2020, or USL when oil futures went negative). I understand the tech sector better than other sectors, so that's where the majority of my playing happens. I usually limit stock buys to "play" amounts of money, so no absurd swings in net worth from any of it. It's a hobby.
You shouldn't be in UCO that long. USL is killing UCO on returns over that long of a period. You are basically giving up half of your gains in fees and interest on the leverage you are buying with UCO. UCO should really never be held for more than a month.
Pay attention to what you are buying with USO. It owns futures, but they aren't near month futures anymore. USO owns oil futures from Dec-May 2022. The price no longer neatly tracks near-month oil futures, so a spike in price that happens because of winter drawdowns might not impact USO's value as neatly as a near month future would. ​ I personally prefer USL. It buys monthly futures for the next 12 months at equal rate, and historically does better than USO when holding for longer time periods. Every month you roll a lower percentage of your futures into new futures which keeps costs down (costs are like half of USO costs). Because USO now buys a spread, the funds are pretty similar at the moment, but historically you only got that sweet sweet backwardation earning over time with USL, as well as the potential for the rise in price of the commodity.
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$UCO $USO $USL Lots of ways
I’m in the same position as you and just been looking - 3USL is a 3x leveraged ETF of S&P 500
Disagree. They’re rolling futures and options contracts from month to month, subject to roll decay over time plus the MLP structure means you get K1’s which complicate the hell out of your taxes. If you absolutely must trade ETF’s at least stick to USL, rolling contracts a year out so the decay isn’t as pronounced.
Just made a little on $USL options. Sold and bought 200 $CNLE. Gonna wait a bit before buying some calls.
Simply knowing an industry is a huge leg-up. I'm in IT, so I'm reasonably current on what's going on in the semiconductor world and tech stocks. It's not like a magic panacea, but it's easier to have convictions about a company when you're familiar with them, public sentiment about them, etc. Another one is just being a step ahead of the market... There's a meta-game there, where you're predicting where money is going to go in the short term and getting there first. For example: When the market took a dump because Covid in March 2020, you can sit down, think what companies might flourish in this new scenario. * Online shopping? Amazon doubled in 5 months * Meal delivery? Grubhub doubled in like 5 months * Online meetings? Zoom was like 5x in 7 months. (bought at $131, sold at $487 six months later) * Delivery services? FedEx almost tripled in six months. UPS wasn't quite as meteoric, but still almost doubled in 5 months. (Bought FDX and $117, sold half at $240 about 11 months later, still have the rest) * Online document signing? Docusign over doubled in 5 months. * At the time, there was serious panic about airlines -- I assumed the government isn't going to let the entire industry go bankrupt, bought UA at $21 and sold at $31 in 11 days. In that timeframe, you'd have done just fine with the S&P too, with upwards of 50% gains... But I'll take 5x over 1.5x any day. Covid was obviously a pretty rare scenario, but similar opportunities present themselves if you pay attention. * When oil futures went negative during the covid crisis, USL dropped to $10/share, and is currently back at $24/share. (I bought at $10 and got out at $16 or so) * Able to predict materials shortage and stuff? Bought CMC at $20, sold at $32 six months later. * When Peleton announced their recall a month ago, their stock dropped to $80/share. Peleton owners are cult-like in their devotion. Currently back to $110 or so. (I bought at 80.49 and got out at $96 11 days later because it still looked overvalued at $80 to me) * I ate at a Chipotle in the early days, when they weren't all that common, and I even had the thought "I should totally buy stock in Choptle". 14 years later, I still kick myself for not throwing money at it back then. Caveats: Obviously there's risk with any of this -- sometimes you might jump the wrong way. I've lost a bundle on oil stocks pre-covid, underperformed the market with Verisign during Covid, losing money relative to the market with AMZN stock right now, I have some super-boring stock like MRK which is underperforming, etc. I thought BRK was going to explode since they were sitting on piles of cash and could pick up companies on the cheap during the pandemic, but I underestimated just how fast the market would bounce back. I still own those shares and they've even beaten the market with them, but man, if I'd only thrown more money at ZM instead... I always take at least rudimentary looks at financials. I think it's important to look at a risk/reward scenario even if I'm not trying to do my own DCF models. But I think riding indexes until you see an opportunity is not a bad way to fly.
It really depends on what you consider "high risk". I put nearly half of my retirement portfolio and a good bit of my taxable into USL last year when oil tanked when COVID-19 hit the world. That was a lot of eggs in one basket, but I knew that the price of oil is essentially cartel-controlled and most of the players needed that price to be much higher. Nearly doubled my money in doing that, and now I'm a few years closer to retirement. I've closed out most of that in the last few weeks. I might have missed the tippity-top by a few percent, but I walked away with a big win. That was not done lightly and I didn't enter into that believing it to be a pure gamble. It was unsettling to have so much of my portfolio in one play, but under the circumstances it seemed the closest thing to a sure thing and I went for it. It played out pretty much how I expected. As far as pure gambling - I saw what was happening with GameStop back in January and threw $10k on that seeing that there was something to the market mechanics then. I tripled my money and cashed out near the top. That was about 1% of my total portfolio. Not touching that nonsense now as I'm pretty sure it's being driven by a lot of indoctrinated idiots buying and a lot of vultures selling. TBH I had a really good year with all of this chaos, but I'd really love to just DCA into an index fund and not have to wonder about what OPEC is going to do at their next meeting.
To me the thought has always been oil is priced as dollars per barrel. If the dollar weakens then things like USO (which I don't like) and USL, DBO, BNO (which I do) should go up.
Here’s a list of commodities ETFs that will continue to print as long as boomers continue to buy into the inflation hype: PDBC FTGC COMT USL CORN GLD SLV DBB DBB You’re welcome 😑
Big believer in the BNO (roughly mirrors Brent prices) $22 calls for Jan 2022, although minimal movement so far on that. Can be had for about 1.75 per option. Also have XOP, KSA, USL. Multimodal bullish oil exposure. I also have Oct DBO (mirrors WTI) 15$ calls. Those will pay out big if summer spike but may not spike fast enough. Remains to be seen
I went big into USL back then and I'm sitting on $120k in long term gains. Wish I could have put more in.
Considering an oil directional (bullish) play given the news on the Colonial hack. Torn between buying a long call and shorting a put spread. Opinions? USL/USO/WTI?
I bought a fuckton of USL last March when WTI went to shit and doubled my money, selling it for LT gains now. If you're buying in now...erm... good luck with that.
I have only had significant money to invest over the last three years (discounting 401k and IRA contributions over the last 20 years). I inherited a modest sum then and opened a taxable brokerage account and I put most of it into VTSAX. Spring 2020 and COVID swoops in. When WTI oil futures crashed, I made a big move into USL with my brokerage cash as well as my IRAs. Very near 100% return, and I locked in the gains in my IRA, and the bit left in my brokerage are unrealized long term gains now. Last spring I also got in when TSLA started popping off, what I put into that was up 40%, and I sold near the top. This winter I threw in some money on the first run-up of GME and doubled it and sold at the top. The last year has been absolutely insane. I'm glad I jumped on these opportunities, but at the same time I felt I was on the border between investing and gambling, and that's not my speed tbh.
You should not mix the idea of an emergency fund and a dry powder fund. What if the market shifts, you put your dry powder in, and get a cancer diagnosis / lose your job / meteorite obliterates your house the next day? They need to be two completely independent piles of money. I have my emergency "oh shit" money in a savings account that I can access through my bank or ATM this instant. I have a dry powder MM fund in both my taxable brokerage and in my IRAs, and I try to maintain some cash in them to take advantage of black swan events. Last March when the pandemic hit and WTI went negative I made a big move into USL that paid off handsomely. How much you have in long term investments vs. how much you keep as dry powder really is up to individual temperament. Dry powder may not earn you much, but might be invaluable in taking advantage of black swan events. At the same time, if those black swan events don't come, that cash may be sitting in a MM earning fuck all. TL;DR - I was happy to have a shitload of cash available to take advantage of shifts due to the pandemic, but now we're back to "normal", everyone needs to make a personal judgement on how much powder to hold in cash/MM. This is NOT my emergency "oh shit" money, which is safe as hell and immediately accessible.
This confirms some of my speculation. I bought and sold GUSH, made about 30%. That was a lucky guess. Right now I’m buying BNO every time it dips. Gonna get in to USL and DBO. Commodities are hard and I don’t want to end up with 100 barrels of oil in my driveway so I stick to the ETFs that mirror the price. What are you into? This is not an offer of or solicitation for financial advice.
I bought in and held a LOT of USL and it did great. Partnerships are a pain in the nuts at tax time though.
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Event specific price action the hardest to predict. some positive price action has already occurred last Friday. Sunday is the high tide when they plan to dislodge. Again depends if they can dislodge the Ever Given 🚢 Some thread on r/stocks got into great tangential effects on retailers, South Africa 🇿🇦, Oil USL /cl and all that. A shipping news site here: https://www.joc.com/maritime-news
I am a bot. You submitted a picture of a banned ticker, USL. Yell at /u/zjz if it's above 1 billion-ish market cap and not related to crypto/pennies/OTC/SPACs.
1. TSLA 2. TSLA 3. USL 4. TSLA Yeah, it's complicated.
i sold my XOM and USL and MRO and USO to buy back into EV's a 2 days ago. RIP
Gonna switch over to longterms, $DAL and $USL, until the market is favorable for pennies.
Putting money into long-terms, DAL and USL, until the market looks better for volatile pennystocks.
Ahah. I was researching leveraged funds in Europe, I found: QQQ3 QQQS 3USL 3EML 3UKL 3DEL 3SIL 3GOL There’s probably more available but that was enough for what I wanted.
Contango. USL > USO if you really want to buy oil trackers. Check the 1-year charts of USL vs USO and you will see just how powerful contango can be.
Lol. every single oil tracking index gets destroyed over time by Contango. USO, UCO, USL, USOI. Look at their max charts and google how contango works. UCO will never break 1k even if oil hits ATH. That's how oil tracking indexes function.
It's hard to separate luck... Even when your reasoning is sound, your timing may not be. I think timing is mostly luck for everyone, but one can put themselves in the right place and hope. It's guaranteed that some people time it right just because so many people make the same plays spread out over time. But odds are good it won't be you nailing the timing. March 2020 was the last time when I felt reasonably confident. I didn't expect such a fast recovery, but I felt confident it was a good time to get in. At the time, everyone was certain airlines and plane manufacturers were doomed. I figured that was overblown and did well just holding a couple weeks. Zoom seemed an obvious choice given the pandemic so I got in around 114. Sold around 487. I picked some others like fedex, which did well, and verisign, which didn't. When oil went negative, I bought some USL. Did well there too. My mistake was not going in heavier... I expected a rounded bottom and it turns out I just happened to time the exact bottom within a day. Anyway, no crazy risk plays, just boring long stock trades that did well.