XBI

Pin-Last

If you bought the XBI at 65 and sold at 90 for the last decade, that beat the Nasdaq. 

WordsHappenedHere

Problem with SPMO is it doesn’t adapt or rebalance fast enough. Most of the 2025 momentum names just aren’t working anymore. Things like IWM XBI are working. Then all the random space stocks, or quantum or high capacity memory. It seems like all the algos, quantum funds, and day traders just pile into hot names at the same time. Eventually they exit and move on to the next thing.

dvdmovie1

I like investing in biotech, have never invested in EDIT (or CRSP, NTLA are other ARKG-ish names that have often come up.) "biotech winter" There's a lot of things that have done well. XBI actually had a good year last year. " if literally anything goes right (data, partnership, asset sale, etc) the stock could reprice hard." True, but at $2, you have to take into account that a lot EDIT-specific has not gone right, it isn't just the sector. This isn't down 97% since late 2021 because of factors beyond the company.

TheInkDon1

Hi, my method is to find ETFs that are performing well (they have momentum), then buy LEAPS Calls on them at 80-delta or higher. You could read more [here ](https://www.reddit.com/r/InnerCircleInvesting/comments/1o5yt31/the_case_for_momentum_and_etfs_to_play_it/)about why I like ETFs and momentum, and how I find them. I choose 3 ETFs that are doing well and buy LEAPS Calls. Those typically give you 3-4 times leverage to shares. As those Calls appreciate I take profit out of them by rolling UP in strike and resetting back to 80-delta. You might not understand that concept yet, but I could explain it more. That profit goes into 100-120DTE Calls at 80-delta. Those give more like 5-7x leverage, delta-adjusted. I'm doing more than 50% per quarter across 6 accounts using tickers like XBI, XPH, SLV, ECH, EWP, & DXJ. Cut losers and let winners run. But it's not too labor-intensive, as I'm only needing to make a change maybe once a month. Best of luck.

TheInkDon1

I wasn't doing it that far back. I really only started trading the strategy seriously in about July. But realize that not everything is affected by a downturn/pullback/correction, or whatever you want to call it. I've always had a precious metals allocation (which was gold until October, now silver), and those tend to go up as "markets" go down. Plus I'm buying ETFs based on their 3-month momentum, and those are already outperforming "the market," so it's not like I'm holding SPY, which goes down. And those have tended to be in things like Biotech (XBI), Pharma (XPH), Japan (DXJ), and Chile (ECH). So things maybe not correlated to the US market. Plus, I'm watching my tickers most every day (though weekly would suffice), and taking action when they've been flat for 2 to 4 weeks. All that to say: don't be afraid to try it. A little diversification, picking things that are already going up, and monitoring go a long way toward staving off any trouble. Cheers!

TheInkDon1

Well this book is solid (it's a pdf): [Options for the Beginner and Beyond,](https://www.r-5.org/files/books/trading/schoolbooks/W_Edward_Olmstead-Options_for_the_Beginner_and_Beyond-EN.pdf) by Professor Olmstead of Northwestern University And just read Chapters 1 through 6, glossing over anything about Puts. That gets you to LEAPS Calls, and you could stop there and become a very successful options trader. Also, I recommend only trading ETFs. 'Normal' ETFs, like XBI or DXJ, but commodities ETFs are okay too. Just not crypto or single-company or leveraged ETFs. Because with the leverage of LEAPS Calls (3 to 4 times, typically), you can make boring old (non-volatile) ETFs quite juicy. And they don't drop big in one day for almost no reason like stocks can. To give you an idea of their power, I've been managing my sister's account since 10/22 in just 3 ETFs (for a little diversity), one of them SLV, and today it has officially *doubled*. Yeah, 10/22 just 3 months and 4 days ago. So put a great deal of effort into learning long Call options (that's all you need) and you'll be handsomely rewarded. Take care.

WillisTalking17

$XBI just straight ripping, will all the regards in here you’d think people would like biotech more

dvdmovie1

It's already broken out. XBI had a good year last year for once in a long while - in recent years, it's seemed as if the category broadly struggled while you could do well if you picked a narrow group of right names. I had four names bought out last year. Biotech is incredibly risky and it depends on what you're looking for. If you're looking for GLP-1, there's LLY in the lead, NVO and a lot of also-rans that might get bought in the manner that PFE overpaid for MTSR. People also don't talk about aesthetics - I've done well with diversified dermatology co GALDY in the last year.

Tantpispourtoi

WANT MOAR? This is an exceptional setup. The data confirms we are in a rare "100th percentile" event. Here is the breakdown of the Days to Cover and Option Open Interest for the current situation (Tuesday, Jan 20, 2026). 1. The "Days to Cover" Trap There is a massive discrepancy between the "official" number and the "real-time" reality. This discrepancy is exactly what traps retail traders who misread the data. * Official Days to Cover: ~8.3 Days * Calculation: Based on the 30-day average volume (~14M shares). * Meaning: If trading returned to normal, it would take shorts over a week to buy back their 120.6M shares. This is the "danger zone" number that originally attracted the squeeze. * Real-Time Days to Cover: 0.6 Days * Calculation: Based on today’s explosive volume (~210M shares). * The Trap: Bears will argue, "Shorts can cover in half a day with this volume! The squeeze is over." * The Reality: False. High volume does not mean high liquidity for shorts. With the stock up +17%, that volume represents aggressive buying pressure. Shorts cannot cover into a buying frenzy without driving the price vertical. The fact that 210M shares changed hands and the price held at highs means the "supply door" is effectively nailed shut. 2. Options Chain: The "Gamma" Fuel (Jan 23 Expiration) I reviewed the Open Interest (OI) for this Friday (Jan 23) and the monthly expiry in Feb. The setup is even more aggressive than the share price suggests. * Total Open Interest: 347,479 Contracts * This is in the 100th Percentile (a 1-year high). There has never been this much betting activity on IBRX in the last 12 months. * Put/Call Ratio: 0.21 * This is extremely bullish. For every 1 put (betting down), there are nearly 5 calls (betting up). * The "Gamma Wall" at $8.00: * There is massive Open Interest concentrated at the $8.00 Strike. * The Mechanic: As the price approaches $8.00 (we hit $7.98 today), Market Makers are "short" those calls. To hedge, they must buy shares. If IBRX crosses $8.00, they will be forced to buy millions of shares instantaneously to remain delta-neutral. 3. Updated Squeeze Trigger Based on the volume and options data, here is the revised trigger map for the next 48 hours: | Price Level | Mechanism | Probability of Acceleration | |---|---|---| | $6.50 - $7.00 | Consolidation | Shorts try to hold here. If it holds, they pay high borrow fees (rising). | | $8.05 | Gamma Squeeze | CRITICAL. Breaking $8.05 puts thousands of call options "In The Money." Market Makers join the buying frenzy. | | $10.00+ | FOMO / Blue Sky | The analyst targets ($12-$24) become the magnet. | The Bottom Line The "Smart Money" is betting on $8.00. The volume is there to support it. The short sellers are banking on a pullback to $5.50 to survive. +++++++ The volume signature of today’s session (210 Million shares) is impossible to achieve with retail traders alone. Retail traders typically trade in "odd lots" (under 100 shares) or small blocks. Today, we saw massive "block trades" that indicate heavy institutional footprints. Based on the latest available 13F data (from Q4 2025) and the mechanics of today's trading, here is the "Smart Money" breakdown of who was likely buying: 1. The "Whale" Accumulation (The Usual Suspects) We don't have the 13F filings for today yet (those come with a 45-day lag), but we can infer the buyers based on the "Buy Algorithms" we saw active: * Vanguard & BlackRock: These two giants already own ~47 million shares combined (as of late 2025). * The Mechanic: As IBRX's market cap surged past $5 Billion today, it likely triggered "passive rebalancing." Index funds that track the Russell 2000 or Biotech ETFs (XBI/IBB) are mandated by their charter to buy more shares when the market cap weight increases. They were likely "forced buyers" all afternoon. * Heights Capital Management: * The Trend: This fund was a new entrant in late 2025 (accumulating ~6.5M shares). Funds like Heights often double down on winners once a regulatory overhang (like the FDA meeting) is cleared. Their "buy signature" is often aggressive market orders at the open, which matches today's gap-up. 2. The Insider Factor: Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong You cannot talk about IBRX accumulation without the "King Whale," Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong. * Ownership: He controls roughly 650 Million shares (~64% of the company). * The Float Lock: Because he holds so much, the "public float" (shares available to trade) is actually very small—only about 300-350 million shares. * Impact on Today: With 210M shares traded today, nearly 60-70% of the entire tradeable float changed hands. Since Dr. Soon-Shiong rarely sells, this means the available shares were recycled multiple times between shorts trying to cover and new institutions trying to enter. This scarcity is what caused the price to jump 17%. 3. How We Know It Was Institutions (The "Tape") Looking at the order flow (the "Tape") from today, we saw three distinct "Smart Money" behaviors: * VWAP Support: Every time the price dipped to the "Volume Weighted Average Price" (around $6.80 midday), it was instantly bought up. This is a classic algorithm used by institutions to accumulate shares without spiking the price. * Dark Pool Activity: Over 60% of today's volume likely occurred "Off-Exchange" (Dark Pools). Institutions use Dark Pools to hide their buying from the public so they don't spook the price higher before they are done filling their order. Retail orders almost never go to Dark Pools in this size. * The "3:55 PM" Spike: There was a massive surge of volume in the final 5 minutes of trading. This is exclusively an institutional signature (Market-On-Close orders) used to ensure they get filled before the bell. 4. The "Short Recall" Risk With institutions like Vanguard and State Street owning the bulk of the lendable shares, they hold the power. * The Risk: If these funds decide to stop lending their shares (because they want to vote them or sell them), shorts will get a "Recall Notice." * The Consequence: This would force shorts to buy back immediately, regardless of price. The borrowing fee jumping to 8.4% suggests these institutions are starting to tighten the supply. Summary of Today's Buying Today was not "Reddit" or retail traders. It was: * Index Funds: Forced buying due to Market Cap weighting increase. * Short Covering: Desperate buying to close losing positions. * Institutional Accumulators: Likely existing holders (BlackRock/Vanguard) adding to their winners now that the FDA risk is gone. The "Smart Money" has voted. They are absorbing the supply. If this volume continues tomorrow, the supply shock will likely force the price through the $8.00 barrier. Stay safe. Use protec.. i mean stop-losses. NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE. god speed.

______deleted__

Just buy the picks and shovels of biotech if you truly believe in it. Or an ETF like XBI.

dayvieee

Alright who got RVMD calls because I only got XBI calls

BigWarning8696

If the VIX spiked, I would have checked Truth Social to see what was said (it sucks that we actually have to do this now), but it was just a slow and organized decline . Maybe somewhat related (or not), the XBI (biotech ETF) had a huge spike in price and volume at around 2:45pm. I can't find why that happened either.

CEO-of-SOXL

👀 on $XBI chart.

octopus_serenader

Why the pump on XBI biotech today? Boredom?

tachyonvelocity

3 months ago, I told you to buy these biotech servicers, even as XBI boomed, these lagged despite earnings being stable and much lower risk than biotech. Now all up 15%, outperforming S&P500. TMO, WST, DHR, IQV, ICLR, BIO, TECH, AVTR. Bought more AVTR today, 50k position.

parkerj33

I’m currently doing two-year dated calls on XBI and XLF and selling CCs on them.

TheInkDon1

It's too funny you mentioned LEAPS Calls on Pfizer today! Here's why: I had an email from US News & World Report this morning about the 9 highest dividend-paying stocks in the S&P. (Why they didn't pick 10 I don't know; just to stand out a bit?) And since I hadn't checked on dividends lately, I had a look. They were about what I expected: 6.6% up to 12.6%. Though tbh, I wouldn't have guessed over 10%. I'm not a dividend investor. But I AM a PMCC trader, so I thought, "Let me see if any of these are stable enough that they don't lose value while I write 2-4 week Calls against them." Verizon was the first one to pass that screen, but Pfizer was next, down 5% over the past year, but mostly flat on the 6-month, 3m, and 1m views. To answer your specific question: I wouldn't be buying Pfizer LEAPS Calls for speculation. It's chart just doesn't support it, to my eye. **But as a stable base for selling Premium against?** Let's look at that. I buy LEAPS Calls (for speculation) just a year out, and not less than 80-delta. Here that would be the Jan'27 20 Calls at 86-delta for **5.40**. I sell Calls just 2 weeks out, and nominally at 30-delta. But if Pfizer isn't going to move, then why not right ATM? The 16Jan25.5C's at 38-delta are selling for **0.24**. ROI: 0.24 / 5.40 = 4.4% in 2 weeks. And that's pretty spiffy! Because that apy's to 115%. Okay, but what did I leave out of the "which LEAPS Call to buy" discussion? The time value I'd be paying for. It's 0.21, or $21 over the 378-day life of the Call. 5.5 cents per day. 1) That's very low, as these things go. Just 4% of the cost of the Call. Compare that (at the same Delta) to other tickers I trade: 12.5% for XBI, and 19% for SLV. 2) Just 1 sale of a 2-week Call more than pays for it. I can live with that. Because going out farther in time, and/or higher in Delta, to minimize theta-per-day, also makes the denominator of the ROI calc larger, reducing that theoretical 120% apy return. And remember too that PFE could go down, and we'll want that premium to buffer that. And because I put my money where my mouth is: [I took that position](https://imgur.com/a/IwxD3GX) Just an exploratory $500 position, but I may expand on that. And/or add similar trades from dividend-paying stocks I like. Sorry for all the words, but I had to go where that took me. Take care.

AdLeather8371

SLV and XBI kys

RikZillions

I have completed a structural and probabilistic audit of Geron Corporation (GERN). I’M GOING ALL IN AND STARTING A SQUEEZE. The entity has transitioned from a clinical-stage narrative to a commercial execution engine following the FDA approval of Rytelo (imetelstat) in mid-2024. Phase 1: The Archetype • ECONOMIC DNA: DISRUPTOR (Commercial-Stage). Geron is moving from a "Capital Sink" to a "Revenue Engine." The core driver is Imetelstat’s first-in-class telomerase inhibitor status for Low-Risk MDS. • VALUATION BRIDGE: Market sentiment is currently depressed (trailing ~12% decline month-over-month) due to a Q3 2025 revenue miss ($47.2M vs $54M expected). The Valuation Delta is wide: the market is pricing in a "linear growth" failure, while structural reality shows a 150-account expansion (1,150 total) and a 97% gross margin. • CAPITAL VELOCITY: Currently a reinvestor. The entity is aggressively burning cash for the EU launch (2026) and the IMpactMF Phase 3 trial. Phase 2: Stability Scan • PRICING RESILIENCE: PRICE MAKER. In the orphan/specialty heme-onc space, Rytelo holds significant pricing power, though it faces competition from Bristol Myers Squibb’s Reblozyl. • CAPITAL STRUCTURE AUDIT: LEAN/STABLE. Cash and equivalents sit at $420M (as of Sept 30, 2025). With a revised downward OpEx guidance ($250M-$260M), the runway extends into 2026/27, reducing immediate dilution risk. • SYSTEMIC RISK: High sensitivity to Medicare/PBM drug pricing negotiations and the "adoption lag" in community oncology centers. Phase 3: Analytic Deep-Dive • MARKET PLUMBING: • Implied Volatility (IV): 76.0 (63rd percentile). Options are pricing in higher-than-average movement. • Put-Call Ratio (PCR): 0.06. Extreme bullish skew in open interest; the market is heavily bet on a "call-side" recovery. • Gamma Walls: High concentration at the $2.00 and $3.00 strikes. Price is currently pinned in a "liquidity vacuum" below $1.50, lacking the delta-buying pressure to trigger a squeeze. • SIGNAL AUDIT: Smart money remains anchored. RA Capital and BlackRock hold significant positions (>16% combined). Recent 1/3 workforce reduction (Dec 2025) suggests a pivot toward "Efficiency over Expansion." • TIMESTAMP: Data retrieved as of Dec 30, 2025, 21:28 EST. Phase 4: Probabilistic Synthesis (Bayesian Update) • THE PRIOR: Biotech commercial transitions succeed in scaling to profitability only ~15% of the time within 24 months. • THE UPDATES: • Tier A (1.0): FDA/EMA Approval secured; Rytelo 97% gross margins (High Quality). • Tier B (0.6): Q3 2025 revenue miss; demand down 3% QoQ; workforce reduction (Mixed Quality). • Tier C (0.3): Bullish analyst price targets ($3.00+); high short interest ratio (10+ days to cover). • THE POSTERIOR: Calculated probability of outperforming the XBI (Biotech Index) over 18 months: 58%. The workforce reduction and EU launch prep act as the primary "Update" to the success probability. Final Synthesis & Output Confluence/Divergence: DIVERGENCE. The Chart/Price Action is bearish (near 52-week lows), but the Options Chain (PCR 0.06) and Institutional Holding (RA Capital) are aggressively bullish. This signals a "Value Trap" for short-term traders but a "Generational Entry" for long-term Bayesian players. 3. CONVICTION SCORE: TIER 2 (Strategic Opportunity) • The "Product" works and the "Moat" is legal/regulatory. The "Risk" is purely execution-speed. 4. DATA INTEGRITY SCORE: 9/10 • Recent Q3 filings and Dec 2025 restructuring news provide high-freshness data.

JobItchy9815

May. But I was in XBI and BBC before that.

JobItchy9815

Also have a feeling that it's at the end of its run. Looking at XBI to break 135-140 then I'm probably offloading 70%.

TheInkDon1

Hey great! I'm glad you're trying it and that it worked out so well for you. Keep in mind though, that 20% in one day is INSANE, so don't get used to it. Slow and steady, but with leverage, is how these things are supposed to work. Silver going up 9% in one day isn't "supposed" to happen. And I want to be clear to you and anyone else who might read this: I picked the ticker SLV simply because it screened in for me, out of all the ETFs with options. And I added it as the 3rd leg of my 3-ETF portfolio along with XBI and XPH. I never dreamed it was going to do this. So that said, yeah, when to take profit is the perennial question. I stayed in, but before the close yesterday might've been a good time to close out. I did take profit during the day, rolling UP in the same expiration and resetting back to 80-delta, but that's my normal practice. I hope you've read that in a lot of my writings too, but I can explain it more if you need. Okay, so you're right, "they say" that physical stop-loss orders aren't recommended on options, and it's because you might be shaken out unnecessarily. Especially at the open, when stock prices are bouncing around; options amplify that, so your 10% (or whatever) stop-loss would likely get taken out. That said, after making 20% in a singe day, would that be such a bad thing? I'm not some market wizard, I just see and react to price trends. Right now the price trend for silver is up, so I'm staying in. I'll get out when: 1) The price of my long Calls gets cut in half (which is a big loss, I understand that, but as a percentage of the share price it might be 10-15%). 2) Or when silver's price trend flattens for 2 weeks. 3) Or when its price goes down to where it was a month ago. I hope that helps. Take care.

TheInkDon1

Your ONLY ETF? You should probably diversify to 3-5. And it WAS doing well, but have you looked at it since October 30th? Have a look at XBI and XPH: they almost tie CHAT on the 1-year, but trounce it on the 6-month, 3-month, and 1-month. I love ETFs, but I try to stay in ones that are doing well. Be good.

AntoniaFauci

XBI up 100% from its low in 2025...

TheInkDon1

Haha, you're following me pretty closely, aren't you! That's great that XBI has done so well for you! What is that $2,392 as a percentage of the purchase price? I'm still in **XBI**, and **XPH**. **DXJ** is in my "3-ETF Portfolio" on TIC, is that where you saw it? I'm not in it with real money, only because I was in XBI, XPH, and **SLV** already when I started that journey, and I didn't want to use silver for that sub, because it's not like a normal ETF, a basket of companies. Have you read how I take profits? I roll them UP in the same expiration and reset to my preferred Delta. For the longest time that was 80-delta, but someone here talked me into 90-delta, so I did that for a while, but now I'm back to 80. I say that in case you saw me say 90 somewhere. Anyway, your 88Cs are at 91-delta according to ThinkorSwim. I'd be rolling those UP to the **102C** at 80-delta. Midpoint for the 88's is 41.52. Midpoint for the 102's is 31.40. Selling the one and buying the other would net you 10.12, or $1,012 per contract. And feel free to ask for more when you set up the rolling trade: sometimes they'll give you a nickel better, or at least a couple cents. Now you're still long an 80-delta LEAPS Call, but have a thousand bucks in your pocket to do something else with. This may be riskier than you're comfortable with, but I take that "house money" and buy 80-delta Calls **100-120DTE**. They cost less than LEAPS, so you get more leverage. And if you lose some of that money, so what? Or just put it toward more LEAPS Calls, in the same ticker or something else. All 3 of those do have good momentum still, don't they? You may have a website or something you like to use for charting, but I discovered [StockAnalysis.com](http://StockAnalysis.com) from someone here, and I love how quickly I can build an easy-to-read chart and then monkey with the timeframes. Here's these 3 on a 6-month view: [XBI, XPH, & DXJ](https://imgur.com/a/PnzB8tj) I'll look at a chart like that at least once a week, checking that the trends are still intact. These are fine, but if they start looking like they're flattening out I'll drill down to 3 months and then 1 month. My line in the sand is if the thing is worth today what it was 1 month ago (so 0% gain for the month), I get out of it. I've had to do that with one, and another one I got out after just 2 weeks of being flat. So tweak those ideas to your own risk-aversion, but have some criteria for getting out. Great to hear from you! again Let me know what you think of these ideas. Mike

Alternative-Share420

Hey TheInkDon1, I spoke with you before on a separate account I think about XBI. I am currently up $2,392 from (2) XBI $88 Calls expiring 1/15/27. Pretty amazing gains so far. I wanted to ask how your calls are doing, and if you have already rolled them up/sold. It seems XBI will continue climbing up (for now at least). I also have long-term calls for DXJ and XPH currently. 

TheInkDon1

Hi, have you read a book on options yet? This one's solid (it's a pdf): [Options for the Beginner and Beyond,](https://www.r-5.org/files/books/trading/schoolbooks/W_Edward_Olmstead-Options_for_the_Beginner_and_Beyond-EN.pdf) by Professor Olmstead of Northwestern University You only need to read Chapters 1 through 6, skipping over anything about Puts. That gets you to LEAPS Calls, and you could stop there and become a very successful options trader. But don't think of options as a thing you *do*. They're a tool you *use*. And it all begins with picking a **quality underlying** to trade. And I'd recommend you to stick to ETFs, not individual stocks, which can tank any given day for any number of reasons. I have no qualms recommending SLV to anybody right now. Or for less excitement, XBI. I don't know what you read, but it's safer to go farther out in time and deeper ITM. 100DTE is the closest I'll go, and 80-delta minimum. Buy one of those on SLV and get 4.3 times leverage to SLV shares, then hold on to your shorts.

TheInkDon1

You don't need to worry about small Open Interests. I've proven this in real-time to myself and others here on Reddit a few times this year. Here's [one on XBI ](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1og21ln/comment/nlos2sp/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)that has WAY worse options liquidity than IAU. Just calculate the Midpoint from the displayed Bid and Ask, and you'll get filled very near there. You can even walk it in from the low side and often get filled *better* than Mid, as I did in my example there.

TheInkDon1

Hi, great observations and questions! Yes, LEAPS Calls just outside 1-year. And yes, I take profit by rolling them UP in the same expiration, resetting them back to 80-delta. That cash can then be put back into more LEAPS Calls. But what I generally do with it is *buy Calls just 100-120DTE*, but still at 80-delta. That's riskier, of course, but it gives more leverage. And it's "house money," so if I lose some of it it's not a huge deal. And when the LEAPS Calls approach 365DTE I'll use some of their excess Delta to roll them OUT to the next expiration. Thus I always keep my LEAPS Calls >1y. And I do the same for the 100-120DTE Calls, always keeping them >100 days. Then whenever I have new cash from the outside (not internal profits, but deposits), it goes into LEAPS Calls. Dry powder: no, but that would definitely have been nice after Liberation (from your money) Day. I stay fully invested, because I'm trying to keep every dollar at work. And yes, that's riskier than holding shares. But I think I mitigate that to a large extent by: 1) Using ETFs vs. individual companies ("single issue" risk). 2) By monitoring daily. You don't have to watch daily--weekly would be enough--but I can't help myself, and I love the markets anyway. So I'm always making those little rolls to take out profit, etc. Another 2008 recession event: I'll ask you to read through my reply above again. It took *9 months* for the S&P to lose the first 20%. Nine MONTHS. Not long ago I said to someone I email with about this stuff that if we kept our heads down, monitored our positions, took them off when they flattened out, and screened for new ETFs to replace them, never looking at SPY or the Naz or Dow, we might not even know there *was* a bear market building in. Because the thing is, something is ALWAYS going up. I can't prove that, but I feel it in my bones. Take the SPDR sector ETFs like gold, technology, financials, industrials, T-bills, healthcare, developed world ex-US, communications, energy, emerging markets, consumer staples, utilities. Some of those you'll recognize as 'defensive' sectors, so they'll probably hold or go up a little. And I already showed in my post above what gold did during 2008. PLUS there's the inverse-index funds (not the leveraged ones, just inverse, -1) like SH, PSQ, SPDN, RWM, & DOG. When I sort by past 3-month performance (or 1-month, if I sense it's happening), those will start trickling to the top of the list. So I can buy them and be short the market, making money on the way down. As for doubling, the S&P has done 16-17% CAGR over the past 5 years. The Rule of 72 says we can divide 16% into 72 and that'll tell us how long to double: 4.5 years. Sounds like you like Nvidia: add in names like that and if you do well maybe you're doubling in 3 years? Now take my XBI example from above: 55% in 2 months = 27% per month. Divide that into 72 and see what you get. It's too stupid for me to even name, and I'm not claiming that. But to give you an idea of the power of LEAPS Calls at 80-delta, plus the 100-120DTE 80-delta Calls I buy with profits, I did [this in 3 months](https://imgur.com/a/schwab-account-statement-11oct25-BLwTnhq) this year, almost exclusively trading GLD. No new money, just aggressively plowing profits into 100-day Calls. And granted, that's not all LEAPS Calls, but to me it proved the viability of the strategy. Take care, Mike

TheInkDon1

Hi, those are common worries, and they're definitely worth thinking about and planning for. Are the returns worth the risk? I absolutely think so. For instance, I first got into SLV on 12/8, and one of the Calls I bought was the Jan'27 42C for 13.73. Today that Call is worth 24.70. That's an **80% gain in 15 days.** Silver shares didn't go up nearly that much. **XBI**: on 10/22 I bought the Dec'26 91C for 25.19. Today it's worth 39.15. **55% in 2 months**. How do you defend shares now? Or do you? I've never been a Buy and Holder, because to me those years waiting for a stock to recover are just dead money. I used to do shares, and Mutual Funds, and ETF shares, but I always had a 10% trailing stop on them. If something went down 10% from its high, I was automatically out. Then I looked for something else. Similar with LEAPS Calls, but don't do any kind of stop-loss on them, because you'll get shaken out. Instead, I watch their charts. Weekly would be enough, but I'm looking every day because I love the market anyway. So if one is starting to flatten out, or maybe even rolling over, it's time to get out. And/or you can set a *mental* stop-loss. A convenient one might be 50%. Because LEAPS Calls at 80-delta cost so much less than shares, a 50% on a Call is typically 10-15% of spot. So you see, it's similar to losing 10% on a stock position. You can even work it out mathematically: take 10% of spot, subtract that from what you paid for the Call, and that's your stop-loss number. And you posited a 20% pullback. How long do those take to play out? In the 2008 Financial Crisis, the S&P fell by 57% from October 2027 until March 2009. That's a full 17 months. It took from 12Oct07 until 11Jul08 for it to drop 20%. *That's 9 months.* Plenty of time in my frame of reference to exit losing positions. Oh, and there's another thing to consider: What do gold and silver do during market corrections? Here's the answer for that one at least: [GLD & SLV vs SPY in the 2008 crash](https://imgur.com/a/HBjkGLJ) Gold fared a good bit better than silver, and you can see that it was mostly negatively-correlated with the market. Silver not so much, but it still fared better. And one last thing: something is ALWAYS going up. The way I screen for ETFs, I'm confident I'll find them. Even if it's just the inverse-index ETFs. Sorry, a lot of words, but I wanted to lay out my full thought process for you. Take care.

TheInkDon1

Okay, I guess. But good luck finding something you can afford to trade. Take a look at [this chart](https://imgur.com/a/hDXC6vU) and see if that's too much volatility for you. Silver, maybe, but ohmygosh, that return. **XBI** is Biotech, where individual stocks are crazy-volatile. But look how the ETF smooths that out. Do you like the markets and looking at your account(s) once a month or week? Buy some of those ETFs and just keep an eye on them. They're really no more volatile than SPY, or QQQ.

TheInkDon1

Dude, what will do well in the future? Do you know? Does *anyone* know? No, they don't. Did you know that Momentum Trading is a real thing? OP asked about Sectors: okay, take the 17 or so Xyz SPDR Sector/Industry ETFs and plot them against each other. Throw in gold and silver and any other commodity ETFs you like. Pick a few that are doing well. Come up with something like this: [3 ETFs currently doing well](https://imgur.com/a/slv-xbi-xph-3m-22dec25-ay9yems) I've been in XBI since 10/28, up 13%. And XPH since 11/18, up 10%. And SLV just since 12/8, up 18%. But the fun doesn't stop there: play them with deep ITM LEAPS Calls and get about 3 times leverage.

TheInkDon1

Hi, I love that you're looking at LEAPS Calls, as they're all I do now. But let me ask you this: why do you want to do it on SPY? Is it going up? Because to make money with long Calls the underlying needs to go up. SPY is going up at a decent clip, to be sure, 15% in the past 6 months. But there are things going up more. AND they're cheaper and have good option liquidity. Check these ones out: [SLV, XBI, XPH over 3 months](https://imgur.com/a/ay9yems) I have over 400k in mostly LEAPS Calls in just those 3 tickers. Because that's how I invest: find 3 ETFs that are doing well, go 1/3rd in each. When one flattens or rolls over, replace it with a better one. [This is how](https://imgur.com/a/screening-etfs-on-barchart-zLCc55F) I screen for them on Barchart. Maybe something like this will appeal to you.

TheInkDon1

My best advice: don't think of options as something you "do" that you need to find high-IV underlyings for. Use them as the tools they are. Express your long (or short) thesis with simple Calls (or Puts) that you buy. LEAPS Calls at 80-delta or higher are *stock substitutes*. Then sell 'covered' Calls against them if you want. The Poor Man's Covered Call. Another thing: **ETFs are safer than stocks.** And with the leverage of LEAPS Calls, you can get some pretty spiffy returns. I'm in SLV, XBI, XPH, & DXJ right now. Good luck.

TheInkDon1

I'm surprised no one asked who your broker is. On Schwab I get filled on LEAPS Call buys better than Midpoint most of the time. A month ago someone commented that liquidity on XBI was low and spreads were wide (both true), but I answered that I didn't think that mattered. Then when the market was open the next day I proved it, with screenshots. You can take a look [here ](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1og21ln/comment/nldrpl0/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)if you want. It's proof that it can be done, as least on ThinkorSwim with Schwab.

TheInkDon1

Thank you, that means a lot to me! So, I haven't been doing this in earnest for long, really just 2 or 3 months. But it does make sense, intuitively, doesn't it? And I don't keep good records to where I can say my accounts went up this much over that long. But I can give you my last 3 trades to give you an idea. **XBI** has been my darling for 7 weeks now. On **10/22** I bought Dec'26 90-Calls for **25.85**. Today they're worth **36.95** at Midpoint here AH. That's 43% over 7 weeks (1 day short). Can we call that 6% per week and extrapolate? **XPH**: this one I broke my LEAPS rule because it doesn't have expirations out that far, but I liked its chart, and it was better than the runner-up I'd picked, which did have LEAPS options. On **11/18** I bought 17Apr26 39-Calls for 13.65. Today they're worth 17.90. 31% over 3 weeks exactly. 10% per week? **XLV**: this one I cut yesterday b/c it had been going down for 2 weeks. **11/18** bought the Jan'2**8** 120-Calls for **39.97**. (I was experimenting with max time on these.) I can't tell you what those would've sold for yesterday, because I had rolled them in to Jan'2fter a 1.4% XLV share drop from yesterday) those Calls are **36.50**. So a loss of 9% over 3 weeks, -3% per week. So like that: some winners, some losers, and so far I've kept the losers small by monitoring the trend of the underlying. Do we get to add 6 + 10 - 3% per week and 13, then divide by 3 to get 4% per week? I don't know, maybe there's a better way to do that.

TheInkDon1

I never mind, great questions. The best way to buy LEAPS Calls, they say, is to wait for a dip in the underlying. I don't, but you probably should. I should really try to map it out, but my thinking is that a drop causes IV to go UP across all the option chains, and higher IV leads to higher extrinsic, doesn't it? So is that really the time to buy? But assuming the IV *doesn't* change, then you might be buying a strike or 2 deeper ITM, so that's got to help when the underlying rebounds. And then if the price drop actually helps *lower* the extrinsic value of the the options, that's even better. Trouble is, I don't know how to do a "with a price drop" vs. "without a price drop" comparison. If you could figure that out I'd appreciate it! If there's a sharp **drop** in the underlying I wouldn't be rolling the long Calls, because their Delta will have **dropped**. So there I just wait for the underlying to recover, or get out if it doesn't. But when I **do** roll to "reset Delta" to 85 or 90 or whatever, it's when the Call has gone **deeper ITM** and its Delta has *increased*. And I thought you were going to go somewhere else when I saw the first sentence of your question: the time value we're buying. And yes, it can be kind of high on some tickers (especially if they're stocks) but on, say, XBI, it's just 5.61 against a cost of 37.45 for the 90-delta 374DTE Call. 1) that's 'only' 15%, and 2) tells me I only need XBI to go up 5.61 in the next year to cover it. XBI has gone up $13 in the past *month*, so I'm not too worried about that. And then if that *had* been your question, I was going to say that one function of selling CCs is to cover that per-day theta loss. And right now, at 31DTE, the Call at 15-delta more than does that. So there ya go, more than you asked about! Take care

creemeeseason

XBI has been on a tear due to potentially lower rates and the thesis that AI will massively speed up drug discovery.

TheInkDon1

Thanks, but that was way too much leverage. And is what 1) pushed me out to 85 & 90-delta, and 2) made me only buy Calls with my money at least 1 year out. Now profits, those I'll buy Calls 100-120DTE, but still at least 85-delta. I'm hoping gold resumes also, but in the meantime silver is doing yeoman's duty. 1/3rd of all my money (and my sister's money) is now in SLV (along with XBI & XPH). PMCCs, with profits to be plowed into 100-day Calls. You're right, Biotechs can have huge payoffs, and I hope you hit some of those 10-baggers or better overnight. But I just can't stomach the drops. So I feel like XBI gives me the best of both worlds. And with it doing 10% per month over 3 months right now, I can leverage that with even 90-delta LEAPS Calls by 2.9x. So 29% per month, 350% apy using rough math. And *oh man,* your last paragraph! I'm worried about every single one of those things too. Plus some others: gun violence, the sense of entitlement, corporate and personal greed, and this one: I think we're going to look back at COVID and see that something fundamentally broke in our society. No one wants to work anymore, the rush to gig jobs and full-time telework, and what all that means not only for businesses, but for our mental health, because now we're all in our little self-contained bubbles: home to car to Target, where I maybe feel like I need to carry a gun to protect myself from all the perceived crazies out there, then back home if I survived. All of which are part of why we're retiring and moving to Spain next year. I should send you the email I halfway plan to send to my federal government colleagues on my last day. Take care, Mike

Minute_Tune_6461

I think ARKG is pretty good. A better biotech would be XBI. I’m invested in both. Give it time.

TheInkDon1

Hi, it's right there near the top: >I find \[momentum\] on **ETFs** [like this](https://imgur.com/a/etf-screening-on-barchart-G2Q5UWp). >I screen by **3-month** performance, but look at *6-month* charts. I'm not looking for the most UP, but the *smooooothest.* So I do ETFs only, not stocks. And I screen for them on Barchart as the screen-capture video (the blue link) shows. You might need to have Barchart Plus for their "flipcharts" feature, but it's so worth it to me. Or just screen ETFs with options there or anywhere else, then chart them somewhere. I find [StockAnalysis.com](http://StockAnalysis.com) to be quick and easy to use. It makes quick, pretty charts like this one: [My current 3 ETFs](https://imgur.com/a/BDuibJB) Silver is choppier than I like, but the return made me buy it. XBI is my current benchmark. I've been in it and XPH for 6-7 weeks now. So looking at that 3-month view, do you see the relative smoothness of XBI & XPH? That's what I look for, over the choppiness of SLV. But today I had to cut XLV (have a look and you'll see why), and I couldn't find a replacement I liked as well as even XPH. So I scaled fully into SLV, which I'd been dipping my too into late last week. Does that help?

sam99871

10/20 is a date that shall live in infamy. That’s an absurd 3 month return in your screenshot. I did well too but not THAT well! I’m hoping gld resumes its epic run but if interest rates really rise for newly issued US govt debt, I think the game will be over. I just looked and I’m surprised at how decent the premium is on 32 DTE, .16 delta Gld cc’s, and I guess if the underlying ever reaches your cc strike price you’ll have made ridiculous profits anyway. I will think about doing some cc’s, especially now that gld has been moving sideways for a little while. But I can’t help thinking—what if it zooms to 500 overnight? My tiny amount invested in stocks is actually mostly in small biotechs because they can have huge payoffs and they may survive a big downturn better than other companies (there will always be a market for a cure for cancer). But ETFs are just bunches of stocks of course, and if the economy crashes, equity ETFs will crash with it (except hopefully not XBI). I’m concerned about more than just an ordinary correction, I’m concerned about fundamental changes in the role of the US in the world, both economically and politically. As well as potential risks for US government debt, falling vaccination rates and massive cuts to scientific research funding. Maybe everything will be fine, the US has weathered massive chamges before. But I don’t like what I’m seeing, and I don’t think I’m going to like what I haven’t seen yet.

TheInkDon1

You're welcome, and thanks for all the ideas you packed into this reply. I added some more content to my OP about managing the long Calls, if you want to have a look. I get it with the CCs, and that's a debate I've been having with myself for the past couple months. I do see that they cap gains, but I also like that they buffer dips to an extent. So I see them as helping to even out the peaks and valleys a little. But I have gotten stricter with keeping them below 15-delta (a 2-SD move is 16-delta, right?), and they're behaving a little better. GLD, ohmygosh! I got in it big-time in March, with 90-day and longer Calls at 80-delta (I wasn't doing LEAPS yet), and my God, the leverage! Can I share [a screenshot](https://imgur.com/a/schwab-account-statement-11oct25-BLwTnhq) with you? Don't look at that if I can't! That's the best I've ever done in 3 months, and it was mostly due to GLD. I gave back about 25% of that when gold decided to get off the escalator on 10/20, but that's alright, it was exhilarating. Equities: if you mean stocks, I've given up on them. Only ETFs for me from now on. Because with the leverage of LEAPS Calls, you can make a good-trending ETF give stock-like returns without the single-issue risk. But rather than sit on cash until the correction that's bound to come comes, I wish you'd consider finding momentum ETFs. XBI has been good to me for almost 7 weeks now, and I can still recommend it.

TheInkDon1

Oh yeah? How did your XBI LEAPS Call work out? Are you still holding it? What is/was the gain? Did your short Call(s) get run over? Mine do, even at 15-delta. But it's a good problem to have, because it means the LEAPS Calls are appreciating more. Take a look at **SLV**: it's choppier than I like, but man, the recent returns. I started scaling into it last week, to where now it's 1/3 of all my accounts, along with XBI and **XPH**. Take care.

redsdf17

Thanks for sharing this. I went through on a PMCC on XBI from one of your previous comments and looking at other etf's to take similar positions.

TheInkDon1

B/A spreads are generally wide, but it typically doesn't matter, because the Market Maker will give you a fill at, or even slightly better than, Midpoint. I made a post on that very thing a few weeks ago on 3 different SPDR ETFs. Oh, and since you mentioned taking profits, here's what I do all the time, and must've done 15 of them today in XBI and XPH: Buy a Call >1y out at 90-delta. As the underlying goes up, that Call goes deeper ITM, *and it's Delta goes up.* Just as soon as there's a strike beneath that one (higher strike price) that's at 90-delta, I roll UP to it. Because my Call was probably at 91 or 92-delta. So it had some profit built up in it, and rolling back to 90 takes that out. It also resets the Call to 90-delta, where I like to keep them. And so this ties back to your B/A spreads question: Those rolls are almost always for 75-85 cents. With strikes just 1 apart, the most a roll like that can bring is $1, but the 2 strikes will have different extrinsic values, accounting for why you never get the full dollar. And not a LEAPS Call, but today I rolled a 130DTE IAU Call up 1 strike. Here are [the B/As in that area](https://imgur.com/a/zIcI1WA) right now. If you work out those Midpoints, you find that you'd be selling the 68C for 12.70 and buying the 69 for 11.35. That would be for a Credit of 1.35. And ToS set the order up as me getting 1.30 Credit at the time. But there was no way that was going through, because it was >$1, and to get paid 1.30 to improve by 1 strike would be free money. But it was based on the wide/wonky B/A spreads between the 2 options;. So I changed the order to a 0.95 Credit, thinking I'd walk it down, but lo and behold, [it filled](https://imgur.com/a/i3vtzG5). So don't worry about wide spreads, you'll generally get filled at Midpoint.

TheInkDon1

You're welcome! As a data point, I bought **XBI** (the blue line) on 10/22, 6.5 weeks ago. The LEAPS Call I bought was the Dec'26 91-strike for **25.19**. That guy is worth **38.17** today. A gain of (38.17 / 25.19) = **51%** I'd apy that from 6.5 weeks, but it gets stupid. I'm also in **XLV** (which I don't recommend right now), and **XPH**, which hasn't done quite as well as **XBI**, but is solid. And the beauty of buying LEAPS Calls is that you can dial in the amount of leverage you want. I want really-good-but-sorta-safe leverage, so I buy at just over 1y and at 90-delta. Let me show you how the leverage calc works: Tomorrow I might buy the 376DTE XBI Call at 90-delta, the 94-strike, for **35.13** at Midpoint tonight, Sunday. XBI shares were last at **123.41**. How many of those Calls could you buy for the same money as 100 shares? 123.41 / 35.13 = **3.5** I kind of call that the *gross* leverage. Because it does answer that question, but it doesn't yet tell us how much faster the Call's price rises as the share price rises. For that we need to factor in the Delta of 0.90, which just means that the Call appreciates 90% as much as the shares: 90 cents on a $1 rise. So we multiply that 3.5 by 0.9 and get **3.1x** *net* leverage. But you might not want that much leverage. ***Because leverage cuts both ways.*** So you might go as far out as **XBI** has options, 775DTE/2.1y, and buy not at 90-delta, but at the first *100-delta* Call you find, the 80-strike. *Do you think it will cost more? And why?* Try to answer before reading ahead. Because it's farther out in time, it has more "what-if" potential, so yes, it will cost more. And because it's deeper ITM, you're paying for more 'equity' in the ETF. Okay, so he sells for **50.00**. Rembember that the first one sold for just 35.13, so you can see that the denominator of our calc is larger, leading to a smaller output. But here we get to multiply by 1.00, not 0.9, so we don't get that Delta reduction. So: 1.00 x (123.41 / 50.00) = 2.47x leverage. 3.1 before, 2.5 now. If you want even less, then slide up in the Call chain to lower strikes. They go down to 50, which gives a leverage of 1.6. So you see, you can dial in anywhere from 1.6x to 3.1x leverage on XBI, to suit your needs. And if I didn't say it before: deep-ITM LEAPS Calls act as share substitutes, giving us that leverage. So don't think of them as "option things," but just shares on steroids.

TheInkDon1

When you sell CCs against LEAPS Calls, the denominator of the ROI calc is much smaller than it is if the denoinator was the share price. 3 or 4 or 5 times smaller. That's what actually makes it worthwhile to sell CCs against LEAPS Calls. So my favorite ETF right now is XBI, the S&P Biotech Sector. A 376DTE **90-delta** Call is selling for **37.00** at Midpoint here AH on Sunday. A 26DTE (4 weeks) **28-delta** Call is selling for **1.58** Midpoint. That's too high a Delta for an ETF that climbs like XBI does, but option prices and Deltas below that point are wonky here AH, and that's the last one I could rely on. But let's say a **14-delta** Call would sell for **half** that, so **0.79**. So then ROI is just premium from the CC over the cost of the long Call: 0.79 / 37.00 = 2.1% But that's over 4 weeks, and there are 13 4-weeks in a year, so 27% apy. And that's nothing to sneeze at. I'd give you ALL of my money to manage if you could get me 27% per year. But it's at a low enough Delta (14-ish), that it should only very rarely be challenged. Plus I actually sell Calls at 2 weeks (which I don't recommend to beginners), which will give a higher number (not double), but the options are too thin for me to reliably say.

TheInkDon1

Well, first of all, I only do **ETFs** now. And I only buy LEAPS Calls on them, with these parameters: **>1yr** (there are longer strikes, but the one closest to 1yr) **90-delta** or higher. I use Barchart to find ETFs with **3-month** *momentum*. Here's a [video screenshot](https://imgur.com/a/etf-screening-on-barchart-G2Q5UWp) of how I do that. I then look at their **6-month charts,** looking for *smoooooth*. Then I buy a LEAPS Call on them. (And sell a <20-delta 'covered' Call against each one, but you don't have to.) I just typed something up for a friend in email, so I'll use it here for a specific example. He likes leveraged ETFs, and I was trying to make the case for non-leveraged ones. But in the picture I'm about to link, let the orange line represent most any *stock*: [https://imgur.com/a/ND6l8G6](https://imgur.com/a/ND6l8G6) Did you look at it? You have to look at it first for the rest of this to make sense. >That's 2 ETFs over 3 months, both getting to about 31, 32%.  But *which ride would you have rather been on?* And sure, with **shares** that you never sold (because "the market always comes back") you'd have been alright.  But how would you like to have bought a LEAPS Call at the orange line's peak? That's a 22% drop to the bottom in mid-November, and I suspect it would've put a hurtin' on a LEAPS Call at just about *any* Delta. >So the 2 ETFs are **USD** and **XBI**. When you look it up you'll see that XBI is Biotech. \[His USD is 3x Semis.\]  And as volatile as individual Biotech stocks are, who would've guessed their ETF would be smooth like an escalator? And that's because there are about 135 individual companies inside XBI.  So some can have good FDA trials, some can have bad, and some can even go bankrupt, but the ETF smooths all that out and lets us simply participate in the Biotech sector's trend.  That's why I love them:  for their averaging properties. >I've been in **XBI** since 10/22, 6.5 weeks ago. The first Call I bought was the Dec'26 91-strike for **25.19**. That guy is worth **38.17** today. A gain of (38.17 / 25.19) = **51%** I'd apy that from 6.5 weeks, but it gets stupid. Does that help?

Revfunky

In bull markets everyone gets a turn. That’s why understanding rotation and learning to adapt are so important. Remember how bad healthcare looked for so long? It felt like it underperformed forever. And with it Biotech stocks were left for dead. Now healthcare is one of the strongest groups in the market- and Biotech stocks are leading the way. Take a look at this three-month performance chart of U.S. indexes and sectors Equal-Weighted Biotech ETF (XBI) and the Market-Cap-Weighted Biotech ETF (IBB). If everyone gets a turn eventually energy will get its turn. Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK), which just finished October with its highest monthly close in history. Energy Sector ETF (XLE) - similar setup, but still stuck at the same levels it was back in the summer of 2008. I think it’s time will come. To survive in the market you have to adapt, or go extinct.

EventHorizonbyGA

$IWM moved 30% and $XBI moved 100%.

TheInkDon1

I would add to this: ETFs. LEAPS Call prices are generally reasonable, even on something like **SMH** (semiconductors, IV 38%) or **XBI** (biotech, IV 32%). At 380DTE and 90-delta you're getting 2.5:1 and 3.6:1 ratios respectively.

invisible_momager

They were all ITM when I bought them. One little sucker dropped 70% in one day and of course I was flying to Atlanta and didn’t see it happening. It’s got time but it’s not looking great. Luckily it was $30 total risk, so oh well. (When I say I’m learning with a little money, I mean a little money.) The others are in the money and really in the money, so that’s good. I want to get to a place where I can buy 100 of a major etf, but I’m learning along the way. I’ll get there. Or maybe I’ll get annoyed and just chuck what’s left a retirement account and let what will be will be. I’ll look into XBI, not sure I’ve heard of that one. I do like biotech stocks. Good luck out there. May the market be ever in your favor.

TheInkDon1

Your first EVER Reddit post?? Congratulations! And we're not *all* mean out here. Oh good, you've bought Calls 120 & 150DTE, plus a LEAPS Call, that's awesome. Were they well ITM? Please **never** buy OTM Calls. And you learned the same lesson I did about shorter-term Calls, that's why I now have the 100DTE rule. But just because you buy longer-term Calls doesn't mean you have to *hold* them that long. I buy 1-year, 90-delta LEAPS Calls many days of the week, but I'm not generally holding them longer than 2 or 3 months. The beauty of them is that they act as *share substitutes* when they're that deep ITM. And the longer time gives you "more time to be right," as well as deeper ITM giving you more buffer to dips in the stock. I can't say I'd be long **IREN** right now, but get an underlying that's going up and watch out! Because the leverage of long Calls (that 2.5x I talked about above) really spices things up. And if I may: please consider ETFs over individual stocks. They're just safer. Yes, a little more boring, but with the leverage of LEAPS Calls (or shorter ones) you don't need too much price action to give you great returns. The last 2 days haven't been good, but look at **XBI** on a 3-month chart. It's been very good to me for about 6 weeks now. Have fun!

New-Somewhere1023

2 things :) 1- thank you I will look into XBI 2- please note that GANX HASNT EVEN BEGAN TO SCRATCH THE SURFACE.. I am still buying as I strongly believe it will be BO in less than 60 days or will at least be $8

Dramatic-Morning-100

Yes, congratulations, you get to say "I told you so". :) It was just one of many possible trades I was contemplating, and only the vagarities of this unpredictable market determine which is rewarded. To your credit, because of this conversation I was moved to research the biotech sector as a whole, and decided to invest in XBI, which has since returned 12% and has a very reliable 6 mo. trendline for 100-150% annual increase. So, happy for you, and myself as well.

CommericialBlueCrab

Reminder that XBI is nearing COVID highs. Very low correlation with the rest of the market makes it a great hedge.

Soossaaaa

Buy XBI and thank me later. Buy UNH and thank me later. UNH will stay flat to shake out the ponzi leeches then moon hard

callmesrpt

The XBI is up 53% in 6 months, this is a Pfizer specific issue. At that size, big pharma is largely reliant on acquisitions and inlicencing assets (with a few notable exceptions where blockbuster drugs have been developed in house. Pfizer is without doubt the worst at this kind of activity. They have a seasoned history of overpaying and underdelivering on assets they purchase. Is it possible they replace revenue more efficiently than they have ever done in the past? Yes, but it’s a complete lottery ticket. There is serious urgency with upcoming eliquis and ibrance patent cliffs where they seem to be on the wrong end of a shotgun barrel…

TheInkDon1

You're welcome, and I'm glad you're trying it! I've been loving XBI since 10/22, and added XLV and XPH more recently because they screened in for 2 ETFs I was cutting. I AM very concentrated in that area though, aren't I? But I don't look for ETFs that I *think* might do well; I simply find the ones that *are* doing well. Have you seen [how I screen on Barchart](https://imgur.com/a/etf-screening-on-barchart-G2Q5UWp)? You might need to pay for Barchart Plus to be able to do some of the steps, but the Flipcharts feature is more than worth it to me. But however you screen, **look at charts**, and look for *smoooooth*. I'll pick an ETF that's doing 'just' 2% a month over one that's doing 10% if it's a smoother ride. Because I know I can leverage that to something like 6%/month, and that's enough for anybody. And I don't have to worry too much about buying in on the wrong day and it tanks a day or three after. Because that hurts when you're buying LEAPS Calls. I just screened again, 3-month performance, Has Options, Volume >700k, then looking at 6-month charts: **XBI** was #1. That thing is up 53% over 6 months. Buy the 90-delta Call at 388DTE and you're getting 3.1x leverage after adjusting for Delta. That's huge. Silver and its miners, plus the gold miners GDX & GDXJ were next, and they're making me think it might be time for me to get back into precious metals. **IBB** was next, but of course it's another biotech. Still, 40% over 6 months, and look how smooth. Then **GLD** and other gold ETFs. Gold had a great runup since late 2023, and I caught some of it this year, but gave some of it back too after the peak on 10/20. I'll probably get back in if/when gold clears 4,200. Take care, Mike

redsdf17

Thanks for the detailed info. Planning to open a LEAP on XBI and this was very helpful.

CommericialBlueCrab

XBI so hotttttt

Pin-Last

I was on here screaming like a cat on fire to buy healthcare and biotech all summer. I’ve had posts, explaining how buying XBI @ $65 & selling @ $90 for the last decade beats ALL the ETFs, get downvoted to dust and ratted to mods as “low effort shilling”, though it demonstrated how healthcare *always* closes extreme market divergence. I hope the next time I post or comment on the sector, someone hears it wo/ ratting me out to the mods. 

Terakahn

GLD, XLV, XBI. AI and commodities run for way longer than people think. But I wouldn't do any of these I'd just pick stocks

Formal-Archer6472

XBI is the way

SophonParticle

I just buy an ETF in that sector. For example XBI for biotech.

Sanctuary_Bio

Just because I have $ means I can't spend time on stuff like reddit? How ignorant. I was browsing and saw a topic I'm actually knowledgeable about and posted. Biotech hedge funds generate huge alpha. These last 5 years have been incredibly challenging, yet you have funds like augc, affinity, Ikarian, adar1, lynx1, caligan, squadron, opaleye, Rosalind, exome, Janus etc crushing the XBI. Most of those have like compounded in the high teens or even more in a very difficult time frame. That's skill. To outsiders it's gambling. But biotech investors have a very good sense of risk/reward. Not every trade will work, but it doesn't have to. Frankly you have a lot of nerve debating me on something I spend my professional career on.

No_Driver_3303

Put some allocation Silver, Copper. Essential for next-gen tech and AI and less supply than ever. You should have Rare Earth and Uranium exposure for the long-term, I personally have $UUUU. Lastly Biotech ETF ($XBI) and Russell 2000 ETF has a great future with especially with the rate cuts.

TheInkDon1

I only trade ETFs now because I've been burned too many times by individual stocks. And I trade them on 3-month momentum. My 3 current favorites (which along with GLD and TLT make up my whole portfolio) are: ICLN, SMH, XBI [This is what they look like](https://imgur.com/a/jebeFaQ) over the past 3 months. If they continue that average 9%/month rate for just the next month or two, capture it with the \~3x leverage of 80-90-delta LEAPS Calls. And when those taper off, find replacements.

TheInkDon1

Sounds like you've made a lot of progress, and I'm glad my trading plan fit with other things you've heard and thought. Once you started looking at ETFs it was eye-opening, wasn't it? If we can find those ones doing 30, 40, 50% per quarter and ride them for a month or two of that, then we ought to be able scalp some of that return ourselves. And then the leverage of LEAPS Calls makes them all the more worthwhile. Good for you starting to sell CCs! They're the simplest thing you can do with options, but few do them. They do have drawbacks when the stock runs too hard and they cap gains, but I like the dampening effect they have when the stock goes down. So read up on them more, and play with them more, but know that you literally can't lose money if you sell them above the Cost Basis of your stock. Yesterday I put on these 5 ETFs in my sister's rollover IRA, and today the same 5 in mine and my wife's: GLD TLT ICLN SMH XBI Gold and Treasuries will always be part of my accounts, then 3 ETFs chosen on momentum. 20% in each. As the momentum choices flatten and roll over, they'll be replaced with the current best ones.

TheInkDon1

Ah, I see now that I did promise to capture fills on all 3. In my mind it was only on XBI, because that was the one So-I-Fink had called out specifically. SMH & ICLN spreads were much tighter, and I was able to walk them in from the beneficial side of Midpoint also. When I've decided to buy, I just buy. I should wait for a down day at the very least, but I don't have the patience. I figure it all works out in the end.

TheInkDon1

Okay, I'm back with order and fill results for XBI, whose LEAPS Calls are a little thin and spreads wide, even with the market open. ***Summary: 3 Buy fills lower than Midpoint.*** [Order 1](https://imgur.com/a/r9hTjif) Real ThinkorSwim account on Schwab. Midpoint was 28.**525**. Offered to buy at 28.**50** and it was accepted. (Filled orders shown at the end.) Did it again: [Order 2](https://imgur.com/a/AwRfW9c) Same Midpoint of 28.**525**, but offer of 28.**40** was accepted. Did it again. But this time the Bid had raised to 28.**45**: [Order 3](https://imgur.com/a/vC8hS4x) Midpoint was now 28.**80,** but 28.**45** was accepted. Here are the 3 fills: [XBI fills](https://imgur.com/a/n7bkJiv) **Price Improvements** $2.50 on the first fill $12.50 on the 2nd $25.00 on the 3rd \---------- $40 'earned' by working the bids up from the beneficial-to-me side. The first fill probably would've gone at 28.40 like the second one did, so I missed out on $10 there because I didn't work it up. I just went in 2.50 better than Mid, not really thinking it would take it. So the next time you see wide B/A spreads, probably don't worry about them. And whether buying or selling, *work your bids in toward Midpoint from the side that's better for you*. All they can do is decline to take your offer. And you just might find yourself 'making' 10 or 20 dollars on each trade. @ u/tumblatum u/BourbonSupreme u/mike_fiveoh u/Mental-At-ThirtyFive u/So-I-Fink

TheInkDon1

Sorry, I don't give much thought to what tickers *are*, just what they're currently *doing*. I say 'much' because I don't touch crypto, and I've been burned by cannabis years ago, but then, those never make my 'smoothness' screen. They're always at the top of my 3m sort, don't get me wrong, especially crypto, but they're so choppy that even before I've looked at the ticker I know it's crypto or MJ. But yeah, I was surprised XBI screened in, because it's Biotech, another sector that's burned me in the past and I no longer touch (biotech/pharma, that whole space). You say "XBI seems quite volatile," but does it? On that graph? Or is that your past experience talking? Because here it is plotted with XME, Metals & Mining, which I hold now, and URA, uranium, which I've traded recently. [XBI, XME, & URA](https://imgur.com/a/QmIdX0b) Which trace is smoother? Building that chart just now I had a bit of an epiphany myself, about the beauty of ETFs. We know they let us see sector trends, but sectors are often buffeted by outside forces, so that even if a company is doing well, it's going to be affected by how its sector is doing. But in Biotech, where there's really nothing working 'for' or 'against' the sector in the short term, then the sector trend plugs away, benefiting from the general success rate of the companies within it, but we don't have to individually gamble on which companies are going to win over the long term. We know that breakthroughs and innovations are happening every day, and the ETF lets us participate in that. Or something like that.

tumblatum

RemindMe! 30 hours (Capture fills on SMH, ICLN, XBI)

Rinolboss

Out of those what witch would you say has the less chance of tanking? XBI seems quite volatile

TheInkDon1

True, but generally irrelevant. Here on the weekend the spreads are especially wide, but when the market opens Monday they'll tighten up some. And even if they're still wide, you generally get filled very near Midpoint. Whether it's the Market Makers being nice guys (ha!), or my brokerage (Schwab) giving me Best Fill, I'm usually filled within in a penny or two of Mid. In fact, I'll do an experiment for us: I'm going to buy 80-delta LEAPS Calls on these 3 ETFs Monday (SMH, ICLN, & XBI) and I'll take a screenshot of my orders, capturing the spreads in the shot, and then my fills. I'll post them here and we'll finally know whether wide spreads on thinly-trade tickers matter. RemindMe! 39 hours (Capture fills on SMH, ICLN, XBI)

TheInkDon1

Thank you! **SOXL** is triple-leveraged, as you probably know, so watch that dude closely. Those 3 in the screenshot above are the ones I'm going to put my sister's money in Monday, so I'm comfortable recommending them to anyone. But have you seen [how I screen ETFs on Barchart](https://imgur.com/a/screening-etfs-on-barchart-zLCc55F)? That's what I did today, and those 3 above (**ICLN**, **XBI**, **SMH**) are the ones I picked based on their smoothness. You can find "higher," but you won't find smoother over the past 3 months. Do you know how to calculate the leverage you're getting with LEAPS Calls? If you really think about the insane returns they offer, you'd be happy to 'settle' for smoother returns over **volatile** potentially-higher ones. Cheers!

So-I-Fink

Liquidity and bid-ask spreads on these are not the best for these. Especially XBI. Something to note.

RayU_AZ

Many 5 years of 20 stocks. I was a ETF guy before, VONG, SOXX, ARKK, XBI, etc... But my returns have been higher with stocks over the last 5 years. But sometimes when I can't decide which semi-conductor company to buy, Sometimes they all look good, then I just park my money into a EFT, SOXX or SMH to own them all.

Practical_Movie_5887

Hey all, I’m 26 and working on a long-term DCA portfolio (10–15 year plan). I’m already maxing my Roth and putting 20% into my 401k. For my brokerage I’m doing: NVDA $41, AMD $22, ARKK $38, SMH $50, QCLN $25, SOFI $25, XBI $25. Wondering what you all think — too much overlap or risky concentration? What should i add or drop ? Appreciate any honest feedback.

Avish_Golakiya

Since many of you asked to keep the tickers more than penny stocks, I threw them in. Also, overall XBI and biotech are in recovery mode. I’m still holding what I have, maybe add some PDUFA for early 2026, and added some commercial biotechs, AUTL, ADCT, ESPR, etc. cheers!

DeyviT22

XBI

JustLurkCarryOn

Love how XBI jumped off a cliff with that tweet lmfao

redditmytit

This will be minimum $10 by end of year. Currently in shares and options. Volume patters on the quarterly chart are absolutely bonkers. $XBI is heating up fast af boi. G’luck.

Tradingland

Market rotation is under way. From tech to health care. XBI perked up. SPRO SGMT PROK ready to moon.

MyStrategicForecast

XBI. Lots of premium that doesn't align with the volatility.

tachyonvelocity

XBI exposure, when the news of pharma tariffs happened, sold a bunch of puts, which turned into 15k gains. Then used that to buy picks and shovels and some specific names. Now I have XBI, IQV, ICLR, REGN, BIO, BRKR, AVTR, EXAS, ILMN, also many big biotech.

tachyonvelocity

The “safe” stocks here are actually unprofitable biotech, like XBI, because the benefit they get from rate cuts are more than losses from employment spending.

_foundation

You know this shit is weird when XBI is ripping on the daily.

andytobbles

Current positions - leaps on XBI, AMD, GLD, WMT, XLV. Full defense with a splash of AMD

Three_of_a_kind3515

WTF… QQQ should be flying.. XBI should tank with 🥭 telling them to lower drug costs in our America.. and, well JOBY.. flying cars.. reminds me of Back to the Future.. (side bar.. Toyota bought a large percentage of the shares as well recently) https://preview.redd.it/mgvp5h6hq9gf1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fc961e12ea0609b524bd22bac0a1054811dbe3ed

Three_of_a_kind3515

WTF… QQQ should be flying.. XBI should tank with 🥭 telling them to lower drug costs in our America.. and, well JOBY.. flying cars.. reminds me of Back to the Future.. (side bar.. Toyota bought a large percentage of the shares as well recently)

mofosombo

XBI

DoubleFamous5751

I’m buying XBI and BAX on Monday

Any-Inspection-3325

congrats to all who have heed our call to sell semis and rotate into defensives and small caps, enjoy ur big gains later! we are intending to bring QQQ down to .7-.9% along with SMH -2% while rotating to XLV XHB XBI and consumer defensives

slie911

IWM and XBI both got destroyed today. There is often a correlation so I would imagine there was just risk off sell programs happening

PM_STOCKS_TO_BUY

yeah I can also trade sector specific which is decent like SMH, XBI etc… but not as freeeing as individual stocks. Keep me more risk averse at least!

Any-Inspection-3325

protect urself just for this week, keep ur profits and rotate to KHC PG CL BRKB CPB STZ CAG PEP MO XHB XBI all the smart money rotating into these stocks in the massive tech flush this week

dimethylhyperspace

7/18 on a low IV index etf will make time decay pretty negligible whther you close at 10,12 or 3. Unfortunately, its always a guess as to whether selling is the right time or the wrong time, but taking small profits every day is absolutely the right way to do it. Alot of times, Ill decide what I hope to make off an option, and set a sell order for it, right after I buy it. Then I let the market decide. Id be lying if I told you holding is better than selling. You just dont know, and never will. But alot of times, moreso than not, if it's up in the am, itll be up a bit more around the close. But not always lol. There will be no IV crush because there is no binary news event for the XBI on the horizon.

Master-Ebb9786

Grabbed an XBI $88c for 7/18 Wish me luck! (Was that dumb?)