XBI

PepegaRedditAnalysis

Keep it simple and buy XLV. If you want some small and midcap diversification go with FHLC. If you want international exposure try AGNG. If you can stomach volatility and are gonna be holding a long time, XBI.

Imgoin2brich

XBI selloff from 130 to 70 between 2021 to 2022. Lost $40k in a week on what I thought was a relatively stable index. Never invested heavily in ETFs ever again. That $40k still hurts lol

Loose_Hornet4126

My XBI just theta sadly while spy pumps. Hard to watch

CoffeeGroundsTrading

Tech didn't rise Friday. XLK was the worst sector on the day, down 1.55%. Nvidia was down 4.57%. What rose was comm services (+1.42%) and consumer discretionary (+1.15%). Amazon was up 3.97%, but that was the Evercore target raise plus the expanded AWS chip deal, and that same deal is part of why Nvidia fell. One story, two directions. Not a rates story. The rate sensitivity did show up, just further down the cap scale. Russell 2000 down 1.39% against the S&P at 0.25%, and XBI down 3.48%. That's where the floating rate debt lives.

ClippingTetris

https://preview.redd.it/qyaeb28ny8mh1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3782431c07007de30a887e51abc4f3922f0578bd Save from last year. This was 1-day gains, some up 1900%. Oracle LEAPs. Funny, I also own NVDA of 150 shares total too, around 1100%. My two cents, getting overly attached to gains (or losses) in the end inhibits gains. I’ve debating selling some of my Nvidia to add to already stronger stakes in $CRWD, $PANW (or $CIBR combined), $DDOG, $CRM, $AAPL, $NOW, $GLW, $UNP or $XBI (health etf). Nvidia is a great company, up 22% YTD. But look at diversifying into other barring a big tax implication selling. IMO ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯

PutParadise

It's hard to know exactly how to help as you didn't share your strategy. Possibly you've been buying long calls or doing 0 DTE YOLO trades? I would recommend you move to selling options, specifically Puts. I've been trading Put Credit Spreads for over six years with excellent returns. It is slightly boring, but is low stress and provides time freedom (only trade about 15 minutes per week). Here is my strategy if you would like to give it a shot. Sell highly liquid underlyings (I use NDX, GLD, RUT, IBIT, SPX, USO, DIA, IYR, SMH, TLT, XBI, VIX). 15 Delta (Out of the Money with 85% Probability of Profit). Short Term (28-32 DTE) with a laddered approach so one rolls off while another is opened each week. Little Management (only close positions out at a 200% loss if needed). Typically use $5 wide, but I go to $25 wide on RUT & SPX and $100 wide on NDX. I also try to wait until the underlying goes down by 1% at some point during the week, then I take advantage of the high IV and sell the Put Credit Spread.

pingoo26

Lol biotech is the gambliest of gambles, but the ETF XBI has done well this year so far.

Rosella2562

All of the biggest biotech/pharma stocks seem to be at ATHs today, and so is the XBI - Looks bullish af, thoughts on calls here?

creemeeseason

QURE presentation today made it sound like some really favorable data is going to be released tomorrow. QURE and CLPT running in anticipation. KURA CEO with a second large open market buy in the last few weeks. Probably a good sign. XBI.

ApathysLastKiss_

Lol. Yeah it could be a mistake. I'm just looking at the XBI as a whole, that chart looks 10 times better thanost for tech right now

octopus_serenader

that's why i've got XBI, BBC, SLS and DRTS all queued up.

Loose_Hornet4126

Pivoting to semi's here since XBI/moderna drying up. No semi hype so getting in early before the scalpers are back in force

papsmearfestival

XBI

pingoo26

XBI has been ripping recently regardless

Key_Journalist_3698

i am but a poor boy born with only one nut into a big pile of steaming donkey shit. But in that shit a prophecy was made and it said you shall not nut away your savings on XBI for it is a donkey turd stock

pingoo26

XBI has gone nuts recently

tachyonvelocity

Would agree somewhat. Because it’s a lottery people generally don’t overweight it. So they actually become undervalued compared to their future potential in some situations like when interest rates get raised. Yet an index of these unprofitable biotech, XBI, outperformed S&P since inception in 2007.

visionarymind

!p XBI

JustLurkCarryOn

This is grossly underplaying the significance here. Malignant melanoma is in the running for the most commonly metastasized cancer in humans. Even when you cut it all out and then some, there is a high likelihood it will pop up again and kill you. The fact AI played a role in developing by this treatment will cause a massive bull run in XBI in general.

sadscully

My only green holdings today were VHT BUG XBI and they are like BARELY in the green 🤮

IvoryTowerResident

XLV? its up today when AI dropping. If you want some risk XBI is good

PutParadise

I typically close at nearly a full winner for a $0.01 or $0.02 Debit. Here is some more background and why that works for me. I’ve been trading Put Credit Spreads for over six years with excellent returns. It is slightly boring, but is low stress and provides time freedom (only trade about 15 minutes per week). Sell highly liquid underlyings (I use NDX, GLD, RUT, IBIT, SPX, USO, DIA, IYR, SMH, TLT, XBI, VIX). 15 Delta (Out of the Money with 85% Probability of Profit). Short Term (28-32 DTE) with a laddered approach so one rolls off while another is opened each week. Little Management (only close positions out at a 200% loss if needed). Typically use $5 wide, but I go to $25 wide on RUT & SPX and $100 wide on NDX.

PutParadise

I've been trading Put Credit Spreads for over six years with excellent returns. It is slightly boring, but is low stress and provides time freedom (only trade about 15 minutes per week). Here is my strategy if you would like to give it a shot. Sell highly liquid underlyings (I use NDX, GLD, RUT, IBIT, SPX, USO, DIA, IYR, SMH, TLT, XBI, VIX). 15 Delta (Out of the Money with 85% Probability of Profit). Short Term (28-32 DTE) with a laddered approach so one rolls off while another is opened each week. Little Management (only close positions out at a 200% loss if needed). Typically use $5 wide, but I go to $25 wide on RUT & SPX and $100 wide on NDX.

MrBotANot

If you are talking in decades, it becomes more about what do you believe in: Biotech - XBI or IBB Robotics - ROBO or BOTZ Quantum - WQTM or QTUM AI/Tech - SMH, QQQM or any of the 7,000 other ETFs Any of those will have higher fees and may or may not have higher returns. And there is a lot of speculation in all of those areas already. High PE ratios tend to mean lower forward returns. I’ll flip that around and say that what has lead the last 25 years may not always lead the next 25 years. Look at your international, small caps and value exposure. Avantis is a good place to start.

NotRllytho

Biotech over next 5-10 years. XBI

JackWagon1990

XBI and chill homie.

octopus_serenader

I've been holding XBI and BBC in equal amounts and it's been nice the last two months.

Chroderos

Ok… If you want a *real* ahead of the curve trade, I would consider an equal weight biopharma etf like XBI.  The game-changing ER-100 trials that started this month will lead to a tsunami of investment in that space if successful, which seems likely. The public consciousness has not at all begun to digest what an easy and effective epigenetic therapy mechanism would mean for medicine.

goose_of_wall_street

It's not a therapeutics company, and $XBI is up 30% YTD while SPY is 10% besides.

valenvm

Research ABEO that is a solid company, has outperforming XBI, Q2 earnings expect profits and september 19 is the FDA PDUFA date for UX111 (Ultragenyx/RARE), the approval decision for their gene therapy for Sanfilippo syndrome type A.

valenvm

Like a said days ago ABEO outperforming XBI.

valenvm

Bought more ABEO, it outperforming XBI already

Emotional-Breath-838

I hate being broadly diversified because it means I always have a bunch of losers in my portfolio. Rather than "timing the market" I'm following the herd and, since I'm in this for the long haul, I'm not crying because I didn't buy the bottom. I'm always happy getting to the herd while there's still plenty to hunt. Ok. Let's get you some answers... Big money is moving into biotech. If you're not comfortable with biotech, don't be ashamed. There are ETFs that will provide you with some ability to sleep at night. Look for XBI. It's up 27%+ over the last 30 days. Next is power/grid/electricity. Massive CapEx changes are coming and there will be a major need to overhaul the way power is handled. GEV is a great company for this but there are many others. Banking is coming back in style. The current environment is all about M&A for banks and top quality smaller banks are getting acquired by larger banks. If you don't know which banks to choose, what I recommend is to go through the holdings of three ETFs: KRE, IAT and KBWB and look at which banks they've chosen. To be clear, AI and semi's could all come back. But in the meantime, get familiar with other areas and see if you enjoy learning about them and whether any of them could make sense for you.

SHIBashoobadoza

Seems to be a rotation into Biotech (shudder). I’m doing XBI cause I hate touching that stuff. I’ll do stuff on the more tech side of the ledger. I got lucky and caught BFLY. Now waiting for consolidation before going back in with that one. I don’t touch anything that’s Pharma unless it’s mega cap.

SkyJolly5457

Capital is rotating out of crowded AI and crypto trades into two groups that spent years in the wilderness: financial services and biotech. One leg is already confirmed. The other is still setting up. The biotech leg is real. $XBI just broke to fresh 52-week highs, extending a clean uptrend off its December base, with sector M&A running at its best pace since pre-COVID. $TEM is carving a double-bottom and reclaiming key moving averages while the genomics names $ARKG and $GNOM wake up alongside it. This is trend, not hope. The fintech leg is earlier and messier. $AFRM is already pricing in the optimism near analyst targets, while $UPST sits close to 52-week lows in a falling channel. That is a contrarian bottom, not a breakout. Watch the rate path: a higher-for-longer Fed is a headwind for unprofitable lenders

nom_yourmom

XBI is up 87% in the last year?

Sea_Local2557

XBI and XLV is going up, equal weight S&P is doing okay, Oracle puts are printing, etc

PirateAstronaut1

KALA. lost almost 100k. Stage three trials didn’t pan out. Only buy biotec indexes now. XBI for the win.

WordsHappenedHere

Market broadening. See RSP IWM XBI

creemeeseason

TXG trading at the same multiple TWST was a few months ago. Not quite as awesome a business, but still really good and XBI looking increasingly bullish. Sick how cheap these names were 5-6 months ago.

Dritzz-9966

Uhh XBI is up 21% YTD what are you talking about lol NBI is also up ~9% YTD which is more than S&P. It has been a very good year for pharma. And I'm not talking about NVO here (everyone who doesn't understand pharma thinks it's undervalued when it's not).

SuppleWinston

Tell that to XBI

WordsHappenedHere

XBI breaking out of a multi year base. 175 coming

TreeofLibertyFood

SLS, GLSI, XBI. Bio’s doing well is also a bad omen for the greater markets.

Buylowsellhigh10

I would be fairly aggressive personally.  At your age you have at least a 30 yr time horizon until retirement.  Me personally I would be 100% in stocks.  And I would be diversified using ETFs and while I agree with having exposure to indices like the S&P 500 I would personally have a larger than typical exposure to smaller cap and even some mid cap stocks.  You can get some of that exposure in ETFs like the Vanguard total stock market index ETF (ticker: VTI) I would have exposure to ETFs like Vanguard Extended Market Index ETF (ticker: VXF) or Dimensional US Small Cap ETF (ticker: DFAS).  Maybe some smaller exposures to sectors such as things like PSI, WTAI, XBI, GINN, etc.  But make sure you are comfortable with the investments you own and are willing to take a longer term investment perspective since many sectors or areas of the market like small caps may be more volatile day to day than broad based large cap stock indices like the S&P 500.  

ThinkingOfTheOldDays

Earnings and perhaps margins still heading up. I'm a little concerned about mag7 earnings growth, but apparently they haven't put that many data centers in, so depreciation shouldn't shock people.  Share issuances used for capex are bullish s&p earnings, so I like the current momentum setup still, into next year.  Banks are value factor, have the IB and SLR tailwinds, deregulation etc. they will fund or originate any reindustrialization process. Hard to see how it goes awry for them mid and long term. Wish I bought Jpm a few days earlier obviously 😔 Tmo seems good. Biotech / XBI iirc is ripping

Scannerguy3000

OK fair enough. Mea culpa. I honor your attention to detail. 1 strike ITM, 1 strike wide. Since you were diligent and corrected this poor sinner nicely, I'll give you some more detail. The short put is placed $0.01 above the current underlying price or higher. So that will always take 1 strike ITM. The long put is placed $1 below the short put or lower, so that will take 1 strike. Now, you don't have to use $1. If you want to target multiple tickers, you can set a dollar amount that would work for the largest usual price, but might get 2-4 strikes on something cheaper. So you could make that $4 or $5 if you want. A recent example, XBI. $132-136 (so this was set for $4), opened 6/15, trade price $1.25 for 14 contracts. $3850 at risk. Closed today 6/17, close price $.88 for a $518 gain. (Minus fees, I'm not looking at that right now, but roughly $1.84 I would assume total; 4x .46). 29.6% return, 13.45% Return on Risk. And it still had 30DTE remaining. Another example, QQQ: Opened 5/14, $.87 for exp 6/30, 37 contracts, $4181 at risk. Closed 6/3, $.44 for $1591 or 49.43% return, 38.05% Return on Risk. Still had \~ 27DTE remaining. Smash that like and subscribe button.

Any_Carob3372

XBI last few days certainly has flipped to bull mode

WordsHappenedHere

XBI breaking out finally

GeneralSavings9373

I used to trade a good bit last year but was out of the market until a few days ago. My main goal for investing at the moment is short-term growth thats somewhat stable. VOO - 25% DXJ - 19% VLUE - 17% XBI - 17% FSLR - 8% DG - 7% FNV - 7%

TreGet234

Biotech like IHI and XBI haven't done well over the last 6+ years. What's up with that?

WordsHappenedHere

XBI about to break out of a 5 year cup.

New-Specialist-2594

QMHNX/QSPNX/CTA/DBMF on the Long side. XRT/TNA/EDC/FDIS/XLT/XBI,/IYT...etc on the short side. All depends on SMA/EDA. 70ish avg CAGR last 8-9 yrs. 10-15% CAGR in 2022. Works like a charm.

drarnab

As a mutual fund am not sure but I hold some XBI ?

MediocreCamp707

Got in Bitcoin around 800 each in 2015... luckily I put 10k in at the time and it got me approx 11.43 btc. Sold all last year in October after holding for 10 years.. and lump summed it all into VOO. Ethereum around 70 each. Got into Terawulf (WULF) in early 2023 at around 1.50/share. Several other single stocks, but I've primarily invested into VOO. The next plays are QTUM, AIQ, XBI, VDE, and TINY.

Wide-Contribution-29

Any reason for MRNA in particular? This is why I generally stay the fuck away from this sector. I’m sure there will be a bunch of companies working on this if this really starts to spread. You could buy a big bag like the XBI etf,  but that probably also contains a lot of shit companies too. 

Wide-Contribution-29

Consider XBI etf

VuvuzelaSound

No worries at all, you made some very valid points and I agree even with a lot of your statements. I'm hoping I'm right but I may be wrong, will have to see how larger macro conditions shape out more than anything in the next quarters to couple years, but I am hoping for 30%+ return in the next 1-2 years + dividend as I wait. Probably looking for around a $5.85-$6.25 AFFO × 11-13x multiple. But there may certainly be better places to park money especially if my thesis is wrong. I would assume that the FAD is going to be suppressed for at least the next couple quarters, with some possible recovery signs in late 2026/early 2027, I think their dividend cut gave them enough extra cash on hand to finagle what they need to in terms of surprises in capex or TIs/LCs. According to their own Q1 report they are walking back some disposition plans due to some increases in tenant interest, which lines up with my prediction that while biotech is still in a slump the spigot will be turned on again soon especially with the other leading indicators I mentioned (XBI going up and IPOs increasing vs 2024). This part of my thesis is a huge leap of faith for most people that they aren't willing to take and I understand that 100%. Also their growth projects are obviously tapered way down but it also going to be a vehicle for their remaining distributable funds as they finish up projects and possibly convert some from life science to advanced tech lab space. I would assume static vacancy is probably reaching it's lowest points this year, I would give a cushion of like -2.5% maybe? But I would say currently the static vacancy probably sits around 7% for the next 12-18 months.

VuvuzelaSound

The one that hasn’t happened yet but it setting up, layoffs are lower, hiring is slightly up, $XBI is up, IPOs are up 4x from last year

VuvuzelaSound

Thanks for your comment and unique insight I appreciate it. This year though objectviely there has been more funding in IPOs than 2025. * 6 Biotech IPOs in 2026 Q1 raising $1.8 billion vs in 2025 where the entire year only raised $1.6 billion across all 4 quarters combined. This year projected to raise $10-15 billion total for private and public. If you do the math $ARE would only require about a $23 billion injection into biotech to reach 92% occupancy again. So you can see how it doesn't seem that far off. * $XBI is up 55% in the last year, outperforming the S&P500 by 2X.

VuvuzelaSound

$XBI is up 55% in the last year outperforming S&P by 2X. Biotech IPOs are poised to raise 4-6X in 2026 as they did in 2025. Big pharma has unprecedented levels of cash on hand for new research and development

DynoJoe27

XBI (Biotech) is up almost 7% today... wtf?

HeyYoChill

I mean...XBI is beating SPY YTD. Also over 1 year and since inception. Soooo...yes?

Thin_Cat8817

any names you're eyeing? Or bullish on XBI in general?

Thin_Cat8817

"the FDA is shifting its default policy to require only **one** adequate and well-controlled clinical study for new drug approvals, dropping the long-standing two-study standard." Lowkey biotech might be the play here. has recovered some but still pretty damn cheap since agent orange took office. Lot of room to run up potentially I like IOVA and CRSP but XBI is the easy bet

TremorOwner

XBI has a big green dick and DUST is green.

Avish_Golakiya

not sure about the bull cycle, but you can definitely see the XBI, IBB, and major pharma index... it's already bottom up. I am personally investing in late-stage and commercial biotech, that's my sweet spot, and also a bit of covered call options in mid-cap biotechs.

nivek_123k

ETFs to wheel at a somewhat affordable price are some of the spdr select etfs listed here. [https://stockanalysis.com/list/sector-etfs/](https://stockanalysis.com/list/sector-etfs/) some of these are <$100. liquidity is just on the cusp of being untradeable, so watch the mid price. personally have traded XLI, XLU, XLF, XLE, XBI, etc. currently have CC positions in XLU in my IRA.

Pin-Last

If you bought the XBI at 65 and sold at 90 for the last decade, that beat the Nasdaq. 

WordsHappenedHere

Problem with SPMO is it doesn’t adapt or rebalance fast enough. Most of the 2025 momentum names just aren’t working anymore. Things like IWM XBI are working. Then all the random space stocks, or quantum or high capacity memory. It seems like all the algos, quantum funds, and day traders just pile into hot names at the same time. Eventually they exit and move on to the next thing.

dvdmovie1

I like investing in biotech, have never invested in EDIT (or CRSP, NTLA are other ARKG-ish names that have often come up.) "biotech winter" There's a lot of things that have done well. XBI actually had a good year last year. " if literally anything goes right (data, partnership, asset sale, etc) the stock could reprice hard." True, but at $2, you have to take into account that a lot EDIT-specific has not gone right, it isn't just the sector. This isn't down 97% since late 2021 because of factors beyond the company.

TheInkDon1

Hi, my method is to find ETFs that are performing well (they have momentum), then buy LEAPS Calls on them at 80-delta or higher. You could read more [here ](https://www.reddit.com/r/InnerCircleInvesting/comments/1o5yt31/the_case_for_momentum_and_etfs_to_play_it/)about why I like ETFs and momentum, and how I find them. I choose 3 ETFs that are doing well and buy LEAPS Calls. Those typically give you 3-4 times leverage to shares. As those Calls appreciate I take profit out of them by rolling UP in strike and resetting back to 80-delta. You might not understand that concept yet, but I could explain it more. That profit goes into 100-120DTE Calls at 80-delta. Those give more like 5-7x leverage, delta-adjusted. I'm doing more than 50% per quarter across 6 accounts using tickers like XBI, XPH, SLV, ECH, EWP, & DXJ. Cut losers and let winners run. But it's not too labor-intensive, as I'm only needing to make a change maybe once a month. Best of luck.

TheInkDon1

I wasn't doing it that far back. I really only started trading the strategy seriously in about July. But realize that not everything is affected by a downturn/pullback/correction, or whatever you want to call it. I've always had a precious metals allocation (which was gold until October, now silver), and those tend to go up as "markets" go down. Plus I'm buying ETFs based on their 3-month momentum, and those are already outperforming "the market," so it's not like I'm holding SPY, which goes down. And those have tended to be in things like Biotech (XBI), Pharma (XPH), Japan (DXJ), and Chile (ECH). So things maybe not correlated to the US market. Plus, I'm watching my tickers most every day (though weekly would suffice), and taking action when they've been flat for 2 to 4 weeks. All that to say: don't be afraid to try it. A little diversification, picking things that are already going up, and monitoring go a long way toward staving off any trouble. Cheers!

TheInkDon1

Well this book is solid (it's a pdf): [Options for the Beginner and Beyond,](https://www.r-5.org/files/books/trading/schoolbooks/W_Edward_Olmstead-Options_for_the_Beginner_and_Beyond-EN.pdf) by Professor Olmstead of Northwestern University And just read Chapters 1 through 6, glossing over anything about Puts. That gets you to LEAPS Calls, and you could stop there and become a very successful options trader. Also, I recommend only trading ETFs. 'Normal' ETFs, like XBI or DXJ, but commodities ETFs are okay too. Just not crypto or single-company or leveraged ETFs. Because with the leverage of LEAPS Calls (3 to 4 times, typically), you can make boring old (non-volatile) ETFs quite juicy. And they don't drop big in one day for almost no reason like stocks can. To give you an idea of their power, I've been managing my sister's account since 10/22 in just 3 ETFs (for a little diversity), one of them SLV, and today it has officially *doubled*. Yeah, 10/22 just 3 months and 4 days ago. So put a great deal of effort into learning long Call options (that's all you need) and you'll be handsomely rewarded. Take care.

WillisTalking17

$XBI just straight ripping, will all the regards in here you’d think people would like biotech more

dvdmovie1

It's already broken out. XBI had a good year last year for once in a long while - in recent years, it's seemed as if the category broadly struggled while you could do well if you picked a narrow group of right names. I had four names bought out last year. Biotech is incredibly risky and it depends on what you're looking for. If you're looking for GLP-1, there's LLY in the lead, NVO and a lot of also-rans that might get bought in the manner that PFE overpaid for MTSR. People also don't talk about aesthetics - I've done well with diversified dermatology co GALDY in the last year.

Tantpispourtoi

WANT MOAR? This is an exceptional setup. The data confirms we are in a rare "100th percentile" event. Here is the breakdown of the Days to Cover and Option Open Interest for the current situation (Tuesday, Jan 20, 2026). 1. The "Days to Cover" Trap There is a massive discrepancy between the "official" number and the "real-time" reality. This discrepancy is exactly what traps retail traders who misread the data. * Official Days to Cover: ~8.3 Days * Calculation: Based on the 30-day average volume (~14M shares). * Meaning: If trading returned to normal, it would take shorts over a week to buy back their 120.6M shares. This is the "danger zone" number that originally attracted the squeeze. * Real-Time Days to Cover: 0.6 Days * Calculation: Based on today’s explosive volume (~210M shares). * The Trap: Bears will argue, "Shorts can cover in half a day with this volume! The squeeze is over." * The Reality: False. High volume does not mean high liquidity for shorts. With the stock up +17%, that volume represents aggressive buying pressure. Shorts cannot cover into a buying frenzy without driving the price vertical. The fact that 210M shares changed hands and the price held at highs means the "supply door" is effectively nailed shut. 2. Options Chain: The "Gamma" Fuel (Jan 23 Expiration) I reviewed the Open Interest (OI) for this Friday (Jan 23) and the monthly expiry in Feb. The setup is even more aggressive than the share price suggests. * Total Open Interest: 347,479 Contracts * This is in the 100th Percentile (a 1-year high). There has never been this much betting activity on IBRX in the last 12 months. * Put/Call Ratio: 0.21 * This is extremely bullish. For every 1 put (betting down), there are nearly 5 calls (betting up). * The "Gamma Wall" at $8.00: * There is massive Open Interest concentrated at the $8.00 Strike. * The Mechanic: As the price approaches $8.00 (we hit $7.98 today), Market Makers are "short" those calls. To hedge, they must buy shares. If IBRX crosses $8.00, they will be forced to buy millions of shares instantaneously to remain delta-neutral. 3. Updated Squeeze Trigger Based on the volume and options data, here is the revised trigger map for the next 48 hours: | Price Level | Mechanism | Probability of Acceleration | |---|---|---| | $6.50 - $7.00 | Consolidation | Shorts try to hold here. If it holds, they pay high borrow fees (rising). | | $8.05 | Gamma Squeeze | CRITICAL. Breaking $8.05 puts thousands of call options "In The Money." Market Makers join the buying frenzy. | | $10.00+ | FOMO / Blue Sky | The analyst targets ($12-$24) become the magnet. | The Bottom Line The "Smart Money" is betting on $8.00. The volume is there to support it. The short sellers are banking on a pullback to $5.50 to survive. +++++++ The volume signature of today’s session (210 Million shares) is impossible to achieve with retail traders alone. Retail traders typically trade in "odd lots" (under 100 shares) or small blocks. Today, we saw massive "block trades" that indicate heavy institutional footprints. Based on the latest available 13F data (from Q4 2025) and the mechanics of today's trading, here is the "Smart Money" breakdown of who was likely buying: 1. The "Whale" Accumulation (The Usual Suspects) We don't have the 13F filings for today yet (those come with a 45-day lag), but we can infer the buyers based on the "Buy Algorithms" we saw active: * Vanguard & BlackRock: These two giants already own ~47 million shares combined (as of late 2025). * The Mechanic: As IBRX's market cap surged past $5 Billion today, it likely triggered "passive rebalancing." Index funds that track the Russell 2000 or Biotech ETFs (XBI/IBB) are mandated by their charter to buy more shares when the market cap weight increases. They were likely "forced buyers" all afternoon. * Heights Capital Management: * The Trend: This fund was a new entrant in late 2025 (accumulating ~6.5M shares). Funds like Heights often double down on winners once a regulatory overhang (like the FDA meeting) is cleared. Their "buy signature" is often aggressive market orders at the open, which matches today's gap-up. 2. The Insider Factor: Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong You cannot talk about IBRX accumulation without the "King Whale," Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong. * Ownership: He controls roughly 650 Million shares (~64% of the company). * The Float Lock: Because he holds so much, the "public float" (shares available to trade) is actually very small—only about 300-350 million shares. * Impact on Today: With 210M shares traded today, nearly 60-70% of the entire tradeable float changed hands. Since Dr. Soon-Shiong rarely sells, this means the available shares were recycled multiple times between shorts trying to cover and new institutions trying to enter. This scarcity is what caused the price to jump 17%. 3. How We Know It Was Institutions (The "Tape") Looking at the order flow (the "Tape") from today, we saw three distinct "Smart Money" behaviors: * VWAP Support: Every time the price dipped to the "Volume Weighted Average Price" (around $6.80 midday), it was instantly bought up. This is a classic algorithm used by institutions to accumulate shares without spiking the price. * Dark Pool Activity: Over 60% of today's volume likely occurred "Off-Exchange" (Dark Pools). Institutions use Dark Pools to hide their buying from the public so they don't spook the price higher before they are done filling their order. Retail orders almost never go to Dark Pools in this size. * The "3:55 PM" Spike: There was a massive surge of volume in the final 5 minutes of trading. This is exclusively an institutional signature (Market-On-Close orders) used to ensure they get filled before the bell. 4. The "Short Recall" Risk With institutions like Vanguard and State Street owning the bulk of the lendable shares, they hold the power. * The Risk: If these funds decide to stop lending their shares (because they want to vote them or sell them), shorts will get a "Recall Notice." * The Consequence: This would force shorts to buy back immediately, regardless of price. The borrowing fee jumping to 8.4% suggests these institutions are starting to tighten the supply. Summary of Today's Buying Today was not "Reddit" or retail traders. It was: * Index Funds: Forced buying due to Market Cap weighting increase. * Short Covering: Desperate buying to close losing positions. * Institutional Accumulators: Likely existing holders (BlackRock/Vanguard) adding to their winners now that the FDA risk is gone. The "Smart Money" has voted. They are absorbing the supply. If this volume continues tomorrow, the supply shock will likely force the price through the $8.00 barrier. Stay safe. Use protec.. i mean stop-losses. NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE. god speed.

______deleted__

Just buy the picks and shovels of biotech if you truly believe in it. Or an ETF like XBI.

dayvieee

Alright who got RVMD calls because I only got XBI calls

BigWarning8696

If the VIX spiked, I would have checked Truth Social to see what was said (it sucks that we actually have to do this now), but it was just a slow and organized decline . Maybe somewhat related (or not), the XBI (biotech ETF) had a huge spike in price and volume at around 2:45pm. I can't find why that happened either.

CEO-of-SOXL

👀 on $XBI chart.

octopus_serenader

Why the pump on XBI biotech today? Boredom?

tachyonvelocity

3 months ago, I told you to buy these biotech servicers, even as XBI boomed, these lagged despite earnings being stable and much lower risk than biotech. Now all up 15%, outperforming S&P500. TMO, WST, DHR, IQV, ICLR, BIO, TECH, AVTR. Bought more AVTR today, 50k position.

parkerj33

I’m currently doing two-year dated calls on XBI and XLF and selling CCs on them.

TheInkDon1

It's too funny you mentioned LEAPS Calls on Pfizer today! Here's why: I had an email from US News & World Report this morning about the 9 highest dividend-paying stocks in the S&P. (Why they didn't pick 10 I don't know; just to stand out a bit?) And since I hadn't checked on dividends lately, I had a look. They were about what I expected: 6.6% up to 12.6%. Though tbh, I wouldn't have guessed over 10%. I'm not a dividend investor. But I AM a PMCC trader, so I thought, "Let me see if any of these are stable enough that they don't lose value while I write 2-4 week Calls against them." Verizon was the first one to pass that screen, but Pfizer was next, down 5% over the past year, but mostly flat on the 6-month, 3m, and 1m views. To answer your specific question: I wouldn't be buying Pfizer LEAPS Calls for speculation. It's chart just doesn't support it, to my eye. **But as a stable base for selling Premium against?** Let's look at that. I buy LEAPS Calls (for speculation) just a year out, and not less than 80-delta. Here that would be the Jan'27 20 Calls at 86-delta for **5.40**. I sell Calls just 2 weeks out, and nominally at 30-delta. But if Pfizer isn't going to move, then why not right ATM? The 16Jan25.5C's at 38-delta are selling for **0.24**. ROI: 0.24 / 5.40 = 4.4% in 2 weeks. And that's pretty spiffy! Because that apy's to 115%. Okay, but what did I leave out of the "which LEAPS Call to buy" discussion? The time value I'd be paying for. It's 0.21, or $21 over the 378-day life of the Call. 5.5 cents per day. 1) That's very low, as these things go. Just 4% of the cost of the Call. Compare that (at the same Delta) to other tickers I trade: 12.5% for XBI, and 19% for SLV. 2) Just 1 sale of a 2-week Call more than pays for it. I can live with that. Because going out farther in time, and/or higher in Delta, to minimize theta-per-day, also makes the denominator of the ROI calc larger, reducing that theoretical 120% apy return. And remember too that PFE could go down, and we'll want that premium to buffer that. And because I put my money where my mouth is: [I took that position](https://imgur.com/a/IwxD3GX) Just an exploratory $500 position, but I may expand on that. And/or add similar trades from dividend-paying stocks I like. Sorry for all the words, but I had to go where that took me. Take care.

AdLeather8371

SLV and XBI kys

RikZillions

I have completed a structural and probabilistic audit of Geron Corporation (GERN). I’M GOING ALL IN AND STARTING A SQUEEZE. The entity has transitioned from a clinical-stage narrative to a commercial execution engine following the FDA approval of Rytelo (imetelstat) in mid-2024. Phase 1: The Archetype • ECONOMIC DNA: DISRUPTOR (Commercial-Stage). Geron is moving from a "Capital Sink" to a "Revenue Engine." The core driver is Imetelstat’s first-in-class telomerase inhibitor status for Low-Risk MDS. • VALUATION BRIDGE: Market sentiment is currently depressed (trailing ~12% decline month-over-month) due to a Q3 2025 revenue miss ($47.2M vs $54M expected). The Valuation Delta is wide: the market is pricing in a "linear growth" failure, while structural reality shows a 150-account expansion (1,150 total) and a 97% gross margin. • CAPITAL VELOCITY: Currently a reinvestor. The entity is aggressively burning cash for the EU launch (2026) and the IMpactMF Phase 3 trial. Phase 2: Stability Scan • PRICING RESILIENCE: PRICE MAKER. In the orphan/specialty heme-onc space, Rytelo holds significant pricing power, though it faces competition from Bristol Myers Squibb’s Reblozyl. • CAPITAL STRUCTURE AUDIT: LEAN/STABLE. Cash and equivalents sit at $420M (as of Sept 30, 2025). With a revised downward OpEx guidance ($250M-$260M), the runway extends into 2026/27, reducing immediate dilution risk. • SYSTEMIC RISK: High sensitivity to Medicare/PBM drug pricing negotiations and the "adoption lag" in community oncology centers. Phase 3: Analytic Deep-Dive • MARKET PLUMBING: • Implied Volatility (IV): 76.0 (63rd percentile). Options are pricing in higher-than-average movement. • Put-Call Ratio (PCR): 0.06. Extreme bullish skew in open interest; the market is heavily bet on a "call-side" recovery. • Gamma Walls: High concentration at the $2.00 and $3.00 strikes. Price is currently pinned in a "liquidity vacuum" below $1.50, lacking the delta-buying pressure to trigger a squeeze. • SIGNAL AUDIT: Smart money remains anchored. RA Capital and BlackRock hold significant positions (>16% combined). Recent 1/3 workforce reduction (Dec 2025) suggests a pivot toward "Efficiency over Expansion." • TIMESTAMP: Data retrieved as of Dec 30, 2025, 21:28 EST. Phase 4: Probabilistic Synthesis (Bayesian Update) • THE PRIOR: Biotech commercial transitions succeed in scaling to profitability only ~15% of the time within 24 months. • THE UPDATES: • Tier A (1.0): FDA/EMA Approval secured; Rytelo 97% gross margins (High Quality). • Tier B (0.6): Q3 2025 revenue miss; demand down 3% QoQ; workforce reduction (Mixed Quality). • Tier C (0.3): Bullish analyst price targets ($3.00+); high short interest ratio (10+ days to cover). • THE POSTERIOR: Calculated probability of outperforming the XBI (Biotech Index) over 18 months: 58%. The workforce reduction and EU launch prep act as the primary "Update" to the success probability. Final Synthesis & Output Confluence/Divergence: DIVERGENCE. The Chart/Price Action is bearish (near 52-week lows), but the Options Chain (PCR 0.06) and Institutional Holding (RA Capital) are aggressively bullish. This signals a "Value Trap" for short-term traders but a "Generational Entry" for long-term Bayesian players. 3. CONVICTION SCORE: TIER 2 (Strategic Opportunity) • The "Product" works and the "Moat" is legal/regulatory. The "Risk" is purely execution-speed. 4. DATA INTEGRITY SCORE: 9/10 • Recent Q3 filings and Dec 2025 restructuring news provide high-freshness data.

JobItchy9815

May. But I was in XBI and BBC before that.

JobItchy9815

Also have a feeling that it's at the end of its run. Looking at XBI to break 135-140 then I'm probably offloading 70%.

TheInkDon1

Hey great! I'm glad you're trying it and that it worked out so well for you. Keep in mind though, that 20% in one day is INSANE, so don't get used to it. Slow and steady, but with leverage, is how these things are supposed to work. Silver going up 9% in one day isn't "supposed" to happen. And I want to be clear to you and anyone else who might read this: I picked the ticker SLV simply because it screened in for me, out of all the ETFs with options. And I added it as the 3rd leg of my 3-ETF portfolio along with XBI and XPH. I never dreamed it was going to do this. So that said, yeah, when to take profit is the perennial question. I stayed in, but before the close yesterday might've been a good time to close out. I did take profit during the day, rolling UP in the same expiration and resetting back to 80-delta, but that's my normal practice. I hope you've read that in a lot of my writings too, but I can explain it more if you need. Okay, so you're right, "they say" that physical stop-loss orders aren't recommended on options, and it's because you might be shaken out unnecessarily. Especially at the open, when stock prices are bouncing around; options amplify that, so your 10% (or whatever) stop-loss would likely get taken out. That said, after making 20% in a singe day, would that be such a bad thing? I'm not some market wizard, I just see and react to price trends. Right now the price trend for silver is up, so I'm staying in. I'll get out when: 1) The price of my long Calls gets cut in half (which is a big loss, I understand that, but as a percentage of the share price it might be 10-15%). 2) Or when silver's price trend flattens for 2 weeks. 3) Or when its price goes down to where it was a month ago. I hope that helps. Take care.

TheInkDon1

Your ONLY ETF? You should probably diversify to 3-5. And it WAS doing well, but have you looked at it since October 30th? Have a look at XBI and XPH: they almost tie CHAT on the 1-year, but trounce it on the 6-month, 3-month, and 1-month. I love ETFs, but I try to stay in ones that are doing well. Be good.

AntoniaFauci

XBI up 100% from its low in 2025...

TheInkDon1

Haha, you're following me pretty closely, aren't you! That's great that XBI has done so well for you! What is that $2,392 as a percentage of the purchase price? I'm still in **XBI**, and **XPH**. **DXJ** is in my "3-ETF Portfolio" on TIC, is that where you saw it? I'm not in it with real money, only because I was in XBI, XPH, and **SLV** already when I started that journey, and I didn't want to use silver for that sub, because it's not like a normal ETF, a basket of companies. Have you read how I take profits? I roll them UP in the same expiration and reset to my preferred Delta. For the longest time that was 80-delta, but someone here talked me into 90-delta, so I did that for a while, but now I'm back to 80. I say that in case you saw me say 90 somewhere. Anyway, your 88Cs are at 91-delta according to ThinkorSwim. I'd be rolling those UP to the **102C** at 80-delta. Midpoint for the 88's is 41.52. Midpoint for the 102's is 31.40. Selling the one and buying the other would net you 10.12, or $1,012 per contract. And feel free to ask for more when you set up the rolling trade: sometimes they'll give you a nickel better, or at least a couple cents. Now you're still long an 80-delta LEAPS Call, but have a thousand bucks in your pocket to do something else with. This may be riskier than you're comfortable with, but I take that "house money" and buy 80-delta Calls **100-120DTE**. They cost less than LEAPS, so you get more leverage. And if you lose some of that money, so what? Or just put it toward more LEAPS Calls, in the same ticker or something else. All 3 of those do have good momentum still, don't they? You may have a website or something you like to use for charting, but I discovered [StockAnalysis.com](http://StockAnalysis.com) from someone here, and I love how quickly I can build an easy-to-read chart and then monkey with the timeframes. Here's these 3 on a 6-month view: [XBI, XPH, & DXJ](https://imgur.com/a/PnzB8tj) I'll look at a chart like that at least once a week, checking that the trends are still intact. These are fine, but if they start looking like they're flattening out I'll drill down to 3 months and then 1 month. My line in the sand is if the thing is worth today what it was 1 month ago (so 0% gain for the month), I get out of it. I've had to do that with one, and another one I got out after just 2 weeks of being flat. So tweak those ideas to your own risk-aversion, but have some criteria for getting out. Great to hear from you! again Let me know what you think of these ideas. Mike

Alternative-Share420

Hey TheInkDon1, I spoke with you before on a separate account I think about XBI. I am currently up $2,392 from (2) XBI $88 Calls expiring 1/15/27. Pretty amazing gains so far. I wanted to ask how your calls are doing, and if you have already rolled them up/sold. It seems XBI will continue climbing up (for now at least). I also have long-term calls for DXJ and XPH currently. 

TheInkDon1

Hi, have you read a book on options yet? This one's solid (it's a pdf): [Options for the Beginner and Beyond,](https://www.r-5.org/files/books/trading/schoolbooks/W_Edward_Olmstead-Options_for_the_Beginner_and_Beyond-EN.pdf) by Professor Olmstead of Northwestern University You only need to read Chapters 1 through 6, skipping over anything about Puts. That gets you to LEAPS Calls, and you could stop there and become a very successful options trader. But don't think of options as a thing you *do*. They're a tool you *use*. And it all begins with picking a **quality underlying** to trade. And I'd recommend you to stick to ETFs, not individual stocks, which can tank any given day for any number of reasons. I have no qualms recommending SLV to anybody right now. Or for less excitement, XBI. I don't know what you read, but it's safer to go farther out in time and deeper ITM. 100DTE is the closest I'll go, and 80-delta minimum. Buy one of those on SLV and get 4.3 times leverage to SLV shares, then hold on to your shorts.

TheInkDon1

You don't need to worry about small Open Interests. I've proven this in real-time to myself and others here on Reddit a few times this year. Here's [one on XBI ](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1og21ln/comment/nlos2sp/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)that has WAY worse options liquidity than IAU. Just calculate the Midpoint from the displayed Bid and Ask, and you'll get filled very near there. You can even walk it in from the low side and often get filled *better* than Mid, as I did in my example there.

TheInkDon1

Hi, great observations and questions! Yes, LEAPS Calls just outside 1-year. And yes, I take profit by rolling them UP in the same expiration, resetting them back to 80-delta. That cash can then be put back into more LEAPS Calls. But what I generally do with it is *buy Calls just 100-120DTE*, but still at 80-delta. That's riskier, of course, but it gives more leverage. And it's "house money," so if I lose some of it it's not a huge deal. And when the LEAPS Calls approach 365DTE I'll use some of their excess Delta to roll them OUT to the next expiration. Thus I always keep my LEAPS Calls >1y. And I do the same for the 100-120DTE Calls, always keeping them >100 days. Then whenever I have new cash from the outside (not internal profits, but deposits), it goes into LEAPS Calls. Dry powder: no, but that would definitely have been nice after Liberation (from your money) Day. I stay fully invested, because I'm trying to keep every dollar at work. And yes, that's riskier than holding shares. But I think I mitigate that to a large extent by: 1) Using ETFs vs. individual companies ("single issue" risk). 2) By monitoring daily. You don't have to watch daily--weekly would be enough--but I can't help myself, and I love the markets anyway. So I'm always making those little rolls to take out profit, etc. Another 2008 recession event: I'll ask you to read through my reply above again. It took *9 months* for the S&P to lose the first 20%. Nine MONTHS. Not long ago I said to someone I email with about this stuff that if we kept our heads down, monitored our positions, took them off when they flattened out, and screened for new ETFs to replace them, never looking at SPY or the Naz or Dow, we might not even know there *was* a bear market building in. Because the thing is, something is ALWAYS going up. I can't prove that, but I feel it in my bones. Take the SPDR sector ETFs like gold, technology, financials, industrials, T-bills, healthcare, developed world ex-US, communications, energy, emerging markets, consumer staples, utilities. Some of those you'll recognize as 'defensive' sectors, so they'll probably hold or go up a little. And I already showed in my post above what gold did during 2008. PLUS there's the inverse-index funds (not the leveraged ones, just inverse, -1) like SH, PSQ, SPDN, RWM, & DOG. When I sort by past 3-month performance (or 1-month, if I sense it's happening), those will start trickling to the top of the list. So I can buy them and be short the market, making money on the way down. As for doubling, the S&P has done 16-17% CAGR over the past 5 years. The Rule of 72 says we can divide 16% into 72 and that'll tell us how long to double: 4.5 years. Sounds like you like Nvidia: add in names like that and if you do well maybe you're doubling in 3 years? Now take my XBI example from above: 55% in 2 months = 27% per month. Divide that into 72 and see what you get. It's too stupid for me to even name, and I'm not claiming that. But to give you an idea of the power of LEAPS Calls at 80-delta, plus the 100-120DTE 80-delta Calls I buy with profits, I did [this in 3 months](https://imgur.com/a/schwab-account-statement-11oct25-BLwTnhq) this year, almost exclusively trading GLD. No new money, just aggressively plowing profits into 100-day Calls. And granted, that's not all LEAPS Calls, but to me it proved the viability of the strategy. Take care, Mike

TheInkDon1

Hi, those are common worries, and they're definitely worth thinking about and planning for. Are the returns worth the risk? I absolutely think so. For instance, I first got into SLV on 12/8, and one of the Calls I bought was the Jan'27 42C for 13.73. Today that Call is worth 24.70. That's an **80% gain in 15 days.** Silver shares didn't go up nearly that much. **XBI**: on 10/22 I bought the Dec'26 91C for 25.19. Today it's worth 39.15. **55% in 2 months**. How do you defend shares now? Or do you? I've never been a Buy and Holder, because to me those years waiting for a stock to recover are just dead money. I used to do shares, and Mutual Funds, and ETF shares, but I always had a 10% trailing stop on them. If something went down 10% from its high, I was automatically out. Then I looked for something else. Similar with LEAPS Calls, but don't do any kind of stop-loss on them, because you'll get shaken out. Instead, I watch their charts. Weekly would be enough, but I'm looking every day because I love the market anyway. So if one is starting to flatten out, or maybe even rolling over, it's time to get out. And/or you can set a *mental* stop-loss. A convenient one might be 50%. Because LEAPS Calls at 80-delta cost so much less than shares, a 50% on a Call is typically 10-15% of spot. So you see, it's similar to losing 10% on a stock position. You can even work it out mathematically: take 10% of spot, subtract that from what you paid for the Call, and that's your stop-loss number. And you posited a 20% pullback. How long do those take to play out? In the 2008 Financial Crisis, the S&P fell by 57% from October 2027 until March 2009. That's a full 17 months. It took from 12Oct07 until 11Jul08 for it to drop 20%. *That's 9 months.* Plenty of time in my frame of reference to exit losing positions. Oh, and there's another thing to consider: What do gold and silver do during market corrections? Here's the answer for that one at least: [GLD & SLV vs SPY in the 2008 crash](https://imgur.com/a/HBjkGLJ) Gold fared a good bit better than silver, and you can see that it was mostly negatively-correlated with the market. Silver not so much, but it still fared better. And one last thing: something is ALWAYS going up. The way I screen for ETFs, I'm confident I'll find them. Even if it's just the inverse-index ETFs. Sorry, a lot of words, but I wanted to lay out my full thought process for you. Take care.

TheInkDon1

Okay, I guess. But good luck finding something you can afford to trade. Take a look at [this chart](https://imgur.com/a/hDXC6vU) and see if that's too much volatility for you. Silver, maybe, but ohmygosh, that return. **XBI** is Biotech, where individual stocks are crazy-volatile. But look how the ETF smooths that out. Do you like the markets and looking at your account(s) once a month or week? Buy some of those ETFs and just keep an eye on them. They're really no more volatile than SPY, or QQQ.

TheInkDon1

Dude, what will do well in the future? Do you know? Does *anyone* know? No, they don't. Did you know that Momentum Trading is a real thing? OP asked about Sectors: okay, take the 17 or so Xyz SPDR Sector/Industry ETFs and plot them against each other. Throw in gold and silver and any other commodity ETFs you like. Pick a few that are doing well. Come up with something like this: [3 ETFs currently doing well](https://imgur.com/a/slv-xbi-xph-3m-22dec25-ay9yems) I've been in XBI since 10/28, up 13%. And XPH since 11/18, up 10%. And SLV just since 12/8, up 18%. But the fun doesn't stop there: play them with deep ITM LEAPS Calls and get about 3 times leverage.