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To those of you invested in crypto during the March 2020 / Covid crash, what was it like?
My observations regarding Bitcoin and the markets this week:
My observations regarding Bitcoin and the markets this week:
My observations regarding Bitcoin and the markets this week:
Why I'm short since 31k yet not bearish overall
DeFi Protocol 0VIX Loses Nearly $2M in Flash-Loan Exploit
DeFi Protocol 0VIX Loses Nearly $2M in Flash Loan Exploit
Mentions
A huge chunk of US companies report this week. I don't think the market is settling though. VIX will keep bouncing up and down until there is some momentum on tariffs outcome.
Hahahaha bro your name is literally VIX trade. Absolutely no one, and I do mean no one, should listen to anything you have to say about Bitcoin. Perhaps go do some actual research on what it is you’re even talking about.
If it hit a million, I'd sell and buy a Lamborghini jk. Probably, buy a reasonably used Porshe 911 (50-60k) that would sit in my garage most days, but also, leverage the rest of my sats to invest in more bitcoin, rental properties, or the VIX.
It was the only thing green other than the 10 year and the VIX Swapped out for natgas and wti , and the occasional silver/copper pairing to the gold box Might just be part of their swap to the new streaming thing they were advertising this morning; they were experimenting with a rss feed on the right column But the timing sure is sus
* Sanctions & P2P Volume: Measure if P2P Bitcoin trading volume (check Useful Tulips/historical data) significantly increases in countries after financial sanctions are imposed. Use regression analysis. * Inflation & Adoption Proxy: Test if Google Trends search interest for "Bitcoin" measurably correlates with high inflation rates in specific countries (like Turkey, Argentina). Quantitative time-series or panel data. * Volatility & FX Rates: Analyze if Bitcoin price volatility is linked to increased local currency exchange rate volatility, particularly in nations with capital controls or high inflation. * "Digital Gold" Test: Quantitatively compare Bitcoin's returns to Gold and stock indices (e.g., S&P 500) during market crises (high VIX periods) to test its safe-haven characteristics. * Data is Key: Check data availability FIRST! Reliable, geographically specific crypto data (P2P, flows) can be tough to get. Look at academic sources, Kaiko, Coin Metrics, IMF/World Bank before committing. * Keep it Focused: Pick one specific, testable relationship for an undergrad thesis rather than trying to cover everything. Good luck! Lastly I think I'm obligated to finish to finish up in this subs ' native language:: Even if your data is noisy and correlations are weak, remember the real thesis: Number Go Up. Stack sats, HODL on, Bitcoin if the apex money, central banking sucks, your still not bullish enough, and Bitcoin fixes this. In fact "Bitcoin fixes this" could be your title or concluding statement just for kicks. Then the Bitcoin council will officially induct you to be you one of us.
What a absolute dumpster fire! The Dow took a 2,200-point nosedive, like it tripped over Trump's tariff tantrum and face-planted into a recession scare. The S&P 500 plunged 6%—congrats, it’s basically a clearance sale nobody asked for. And the Nasdaq? Down over 20% from its peak, officially in bear territory, looking like a tech bro’s startup after the hype dies. These indexes are bleeding red faster than a horror movie victim, and the VIX is spiking like it’s auditioning for the fear factor reboot. Investors are panic-selling like it’s Black Friday at the apocalypse store—meanwhile, oil’s at a three-year low because apparently even crude can’t handle this trade war trash fire. Buckle up, folks, the markets are roasting themselves harder than I ever could!
VIX is at the highest level since covid. Stock market is playing yoyo and dancing around like a headless chicken. BTC is following stocks right now and Alts just follow BTC.
Have you been living under a rock? VIX is at 2008 levels. Global economic recession
I was mostly joking. I may follow you with some LEAPS too as soon as VIX chills
The next spike could be tomorrow. Monday is already predicted to be a continuation of the stock market collapse. All major world markets are in the red. Hedge funds are calling in margins. People are not making any kind of move in stocks with the VIX sitting at a whooping 48. The stage is set like no other time before for retail investors to finally give Bitcoin a serious look. That is why I say the spike could come as soon as tomorrow. Get in if you are not in, DCA if you are not DCAing.
Smart money is probably only buying BTC and a very select few alts. Same with stocks. Defensive stocks will always do well in a volatile market. VIX for example. I wish there were a crypto version of VIX!
The VIX is a widely viewed measure on Wall Street that measures volatility in the equities market.
To me it looks uncorrelated with the VIX
The VIX is a widely viewed measure of volatility on wall street.
Bitcoin almost always dives when the VIX pops, but something changed. Was today the start of Bitcoin finally being recognized for what it is by everyone else?
it's the implied volatility in the s and p 500 over the next month. Ballpark it means if you divide the VIX by 16 that is roughly the expected percent daily move in the s and p 500. (for clarity 16 isnt random its roughly the squareroot of the number of trading days in a year as VIX is an annual number.) So for example if the VIX is 40/16 is 2.5 so the mkt is saying it expects the s and p to move 2.5 a day "on average"
We've had 2 consecutive days of 5% drops. The biggest drops in years. Was this "buying spree" for shorts, VIX, and inverse ETFs?
Nasdaq suffers the worst day since 2020 and enters bear market territory. VIX 40+, F&G @5 near covid lows. Massive BTC buyers out there - Blackrock just bought $25MM. BTC holding and remains a hedge against global uncertainty by showing insane strength. So incredibly bullish.
We're the PTSD folks. But BTC holding 80k when VIX spikes above 40 is insanely bullish. Last time VIX spiked up above 40, BTC was 3k in 2020 and 49k in 2024.
So you agree. It's not "comfortably decoupled itself" as OP says. I'll give you another 1 day data point that could help the decouplimg argument. The VIX cleared 40 and bitcoin holding 82k. Again, I'm watching, but I'm not busting out the popcorn yet.
Options in the stock market, much easier to predict than crypto movement in this market. VIX is the volatility index so when trump announces something or does something that creates volatility such as impose or announce tariffs it tends to rise quickly. I do 1week call options and they haven’t failed me yet. Could do 0DTEs but I like having a couple of days leeway in case he immediately calls off the tariffs. Risky but worth it and with this admin it’s fairly consistent that they say they will do something stupid and actually go through with it
Per chat gpt: Based on the factors you mentioned (high market volatility, increasing VIX, stagflation, US trade wars, Bitcoin positioning, and global liquidity), my best estimate for Bitcoin’s price range over the next 6 months would be $25,000 to $30,000.
VIX is up like 80% from a year ago. Tariffs creating market fears, volatility and downturn is not a narrative, it's an economic reality.
When the market does this buy call options on the VIX
US futures green (or in some cases barely red) and VIX is red…
VIX was the play all along guys
I hope not. I want to see the VIX pamp.
This dump is throwing a spanner into the works. I was thinking up only till end of Jan. Might need to push my sells back a couple weeks, but depends how we react if we recover quickly from this. I hedged with some VIX in tradfi for the powell announcement/ meeting, made a fair bit on this dump. Rolled it into Gold but it's strange Gold is also correcting with the wider stock market. I guessed gold would rally higher with this correction of everything but apparently not... So don't have a read on what this all means. Bought a bit of Sei and OP in this dip. But hesitant to buy anything else for now
VIX spiked 74% and yet we're above 100k. You're not bullish enough
I can take a stab. Crypto follows stocks, been true for many years now. Specifically the nasdaq (NQ). So big moves in stocks, trigger big moves in crypto. So when are stocks expected to have it's next big move down? Volatility (VIX) is expected to drop considerably throughout the holidays and it'll cause stocks and crypto to rise. It'll likely suppress, drop, pretty heavily. Which month of the year is a leading candidate for the worst month in stocks? February. With VIX heavily suppressed, we'll be due for a sell event. Im personally fully exiting all crypto positions by mid to end of January. Just what I'm personally doing, do your own thing.
Is there a volatility index for BTC, similar to VIX for equities?
They don’t care about cycles? Bro, bitcoin rides right on the money with global liquidity cycles/M2 money supply. Cycles will always play a factor. 3 year cycles, weekly cycles, daily cycles. There are cycles because people can’t manage risk. Maybe cycles will become irrelevant if you can remove fear and greed from people, which you can’t. I recommend taking a look at Camel Finance on YouTube. On the daily, He goes over cycles and market positioning across BTC, S&P, gold, oil, VIX you name it
War is making the market and people nervous. The VIX is up a bit today.
Tradingview you can make a pair with anything by going to the symbol search and typing the symbols, doing a slash in-between them, then hitting ENTER. ADAUSD/XRP ADAUSD/SPY ADAUSD/VIX ADAUSD/TSLA ADAUSD/META ADAUSD/GOOG All work, for example.
We are in one. Holy shit. I said the VIX spike is a warning indicator of ONE. So yes we are in a Recession. Im not changing my stance. I'm in fact providing more data points to prove my point.
>This is a recessionary path. August had the 3rd highest VIX spike in history. This is a warning of a Recession. See, you're doing it again. You claimed we were in the midst of a recession in August. Now that it's clear that was a painfully stupid prediction, you're pretending that August was merely a "warning" of a recession. You can't even admit you were wrong when it's right in front of you - there's nothing we can debate because you continue to change your position and refuse to admit when you're wrong.
August had the highest job loss and heavy downward revisions. The beige book even says only 3 constituents have positive growth. The rest had negative growth. This is a recessionary path. August had the 3rd highest VIX spike in history. This is a warning of a Recession. The recession will be officially announced only after we've experienced it.
Well this is fun. Just opened up an options trade on the VIX, I guess this price action is too boring for me. Famous last words. WW3 and WW4 incoming
Yup, I agree to think we're fucked. I think a bear market (I'm talking about stock market) is coming and we're likely already in a recession imo. I wouldn't even be surprised to see this become the biggest crash since the great depression. I will buy shorts on the S&P500 when my TA shows me I should. I will buy VIX next week and I have bought gold and silver. I still have bitcoin, but I'm not sure yet what bitcoin will do during a recession There could be a fear driven pump, with catalysts like banking failures etc. There is also enough time for bitcoin to get a significant top in before the crash happens and have a longer than usual bear market. The market will have to show me what I should do.
Since when is VIX and gold Bitcoin? The crypto market has no correlation to gol whatsoever and vix has been this high plenty of times. Bull run doesn't mean Bitcoin goes up only, never has.
Since when is the VIX ripping to the top of the range in a single day normal market behavior? How is gold breaking new all time highs, in what’s supposed to be a bull run, normal market behavior?
Yeah bitcoin, but how does one trade $VIX? It doesnt exist, its a fuckin formula, how the hell are you trading a^2 + b^2 = c^2 I dont know but they found a way.
I think what they mean is: Cash-Settled Options trading on BTC as an index. Like you can buy calls and write calls and whatnot on $SPX even though its an index and cant own shares of it. Same with $VIX, it doesnt exist, but you can still trade it.
I was getting rich of the bitcoin crash, shorted tf out of it last time it went up to 70,000... I could've actually made myself a couple of tens of thousands of dollars, especially if I would have commited to shorting Microstrategy. Bitcoin halving happened since april, but it went down right after that... Then it went up to 73,000 all the way to 54,000, went up to 70,000 again then dropped to 49,000. My theory is that it will keep going down maybe to 40,000 until the next boom happens. Also, if bitcoin and other stocks are going down, the VIX is going up, so there's a good opportunity. I am buying CFD's, and plan to be a millionaire in the next years. My question is, why is it going down? You claim to be an expert, not me, I just followed the market. How do you know bitcoin is not going to crash farther until the big boom happens? Why is it going to happen NOW?
I wanna see V Bottom! Gold sell off. DXY crash further. VIX crash further. BTC dominance fall off a cliff. UNH break new highs Russell 2000 break new highs. Large indexes break new highs. I wanna see crypto on the news for something that’s not speculative. And I wanna see it by the end of the month. The longer BTC sits under 70k, the more likely it’s a dead cat bounce.
And the stock market VIX is going down. Seems like we are slowly moving from risk-off to risk-on
VIX back down to 16.5, while retail on social media are afraid of their own shadows atm.
The vix spiked above 60. That was real recession fears. Yes it's stabilizing but the VIX is still above 20. This is not normal and we're not out of the woods.
Waiting for VIX to crash back down so we can pump again, should be relatively soon
Correct. A short-term market hedge for volatility or downturns can be VIX, short ETF’s, or bearish options (buying puts or writing calls).
I am out of the market one week now. Something really big is coming. It is just around the corner all indicators like VIX , rates, unemployment are almost like 2008 and a possible big war. I think this started the domino. Protect your capital bear the crush. Buy signal look at Warren Buffet he is sitting in almost 250billions.
VIX starting to slowly unwind hopefully that trend continues. Imo great time to get in to the asset. just a reminder we had record institutional inflows this past month so big money doesn’t always know shit about fuck. I’m going long today.
VIX higher than it was during the Covid dump? You bet I bought the fuck out of that dip.
Who else is backing up the truck right now? VIX over 65 this is an amazing buying opportunity.
VIX hit 55, not seen since 2008, feels like an overreaction TBH. Job market grew, unemployment is around 4%, which is 1% higher from historic lows. I get that it might cause some skepticism, but the highest volatility rating since 2008 seems dramatic.
Crazy that VIX is hitting March 2020 levels.
tldr; Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have plummeted by 17.2% and 22.8% respectively, amidst a backdrop of worsening macroeconomic conditions. The VIX index, indicating investor fear, has surged to its highest level since March 2020. This downturn in the cryptocurrency market is largely attributed to broader economic factors, such as a disappointing US jobs report and fears of a recession, rather than specific events within the crypto sphere. The situation reflects a broader market turmoil, with significant drops in major stock indices and a cautious approach from investors like Warren Buffett. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
VIX hit levels today that we haven't seen since 2022.
Among its components put/call ratio is somewhat intresting but as far as I know its not measured the same way the VIX index is. The social media trend could be a powerfull tool to predict price movements if the sample was actually relevant, which wasn't last I checked. End result is an index that is mostly telling you something that has already happened and at the same doesn't provide with information that will allow you to understand why whatever happened happened in the first place.
VIX is at all time lows, AI is solving all the world's problems, things can only go up baby!
Options are tricky precisely because of that timing aspect. One thing about the BBWP for volatility is that it often accompanies low IV and lower premiums, so hopefully you don't get IV crushed in this place. VIX seems pretty low but not sure about MSTR premiums in particular
Maybe it’s like the VIX? But world wide
Meh probably around $5-6k this year maybe $8-9k next year barring a bear market. It also has a fairly strong correlation with the S&P. BTC and ETH are good indicators of fear like VIX for the market now. The first the fall the last to rise. If you look at the stock market rise late last year it preceded the crypto rise early this year. Now they’ve fallen it’s probably a harbinger that the money that will propel this assets upwards has outflowed outwards to safer assets.
It’s a decay instrument.. similar to how the VIX behaves. your exposing yourself to btc in an exploitive way. When things are up you make money. When things are down you will get rinsed.
It’s a volatile asset and has literally always been…invest in t-bills and put cash under your mattress if you don’t like volatility. Only cowards short the VIX.
FWIW I feel the need to remind everyone to read the prospectus on each and every new crypto ETF/ETN and look for the particular statement that documents whether the fund is based on the coin’s futures contract or the actual physical coin. Volmageddon was an event a decade ago where another “strategy” linked to VIX futures went broke. If your ETF/ETN is tied to the coin’s future’s contract, consider this your warning just to stay away all together
Caitlin is right that you can leverage the Bitcoin ETFs and create a huge risk to Bitcoin's price. That happened with the housing crisis. That also happened when the XIV inverse VIX ETF liquidated in a single night. Leveraged products and derivatives have a high risk of liquidating and taking out their investors. But this isn't a security or custodian risk, and this doesn't affect the original non-derivative ETF. When XIV imploded, VIX was fine. When the financial crisis happened, all housing ETFs were fine, including REITs. Plenty of subprime loans defaulted as were designed to do. Many were also illegal, but that's a separate topic. Leveraged ETFs and derivatives are designed to liquidate like loans, but non-leveraged ETFs aren't designed to shut down. Caitlin is warning about those leveraged and derivatives products. Now plenty of ETFs shut down every month, but it's due to lack of interest, no due to the failure of their underlying assets. So I suppose one benefit of the Fidelity Bitcoin ETF is that as long as it's popular, it has a much smaller chance of having a planned closure.
Again, you are going to have to read the prospectus on all these ETFs and potential ETNs separately. Make sure the funds are made up of actual coins and not futures contracts. This was a big shock to many who invested in VIX ETFs/ETNs particularly XIV and woke up one morning to see the ETN went from 150 to close to 0 in a day because the fund couldn’t buy anymore futures contracts. These funds and the banks that create these funds are in it for themselves and will screw you in the long run.
You can’t be a trader unless you have at least 4 monitors, one for the daily chart, one for the monthly chart, the next with VIX charts and the final for the gay furry porn.
Here's a [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-01/bitcoin-turns-less-volatile-than-s-p-500-tech-stocks-and-gold#xj4y7vzkg) from August that asserts BTC 30-day volatility at 5-yr lows, lower than SPY and gold. I believe the data was from [this VanEck research](https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/bitcoin-less-volatile-than-many-sp-500-stocks/), but there have been similar studies. There's also an [index here](https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/volatility-index/) that works similarly to VIX. There's others as well if you search them.
Ask them if it's ok to send your money to options exchange because you prefer triple leveraged options on the VIX. Banks are so damned desperate to have any excuse to shadow ban crypto it's just sad. In UK chase literally won't let you send YOUR money to crypto exchanges but perfectly happy to do so to stock exchanges, and the gambling companies ran by essentially the government. Yeah .. crypto is worse than literal gambling. The hypocrisy is just dumb.
Troubling week ahead and the VIX is still 7% off its 6-month highs, it could certainly get worse.
VIX above 18 is because of government shutdown impending shitstorm
VIX > 18 All markets gonna be shaky
Maybe crypto needs a VIX coin
0DTE options killed the VIX. Need to watch VVIX to get anything meaningful now.
If you’re scared of volatility , buy VIX
Stock market is fake green rn, VIX is still high and apple is bleeding. I see red this week
We need a VIX on the SEC logic
Oh yea almost forgot Macro schedule of this week: Monday: - China GDP - China Unemployment Tuesday: - US Retail Sales - US Industrial Production Wednesday: - Eurozone CPI - US Housing starts + permits - VIX OPEX Thursday: - US Jobless Claims - US Existing Home sales Friday: - Japan CPI - Equity OPEX Earnings season also kicks off with major banks reporting as well as Tesla, Netflix and TSM on the big tech side
tldr; The recent filing of spot bitcoin ETFs by BlackRock, Invesco, and WisdomTree has buoyed the crypto market, with bitcoin rising over 20% in the past eight days. However, traditional market indicators suggest risk aversion ahead, with the spread between the most expensive VIX futures contract and the index itself widening to levels that have historically marked major tops in the S&P 500 benchmark equity index. The widening of junk bond spreads and declines in oil and traditional inflation hedges like gold and silver also suggest a deflationary bust ahead, which is bearish for bitcoin and other risk assets. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.*
So then people move their money out of BTC assuming things are stable, and the VIX being low indicates that there's extremely low volatility. Gotcha, that makes sense.
Btc is a store of value, when theres stability in the markets and the economy, people will move their money. The VIX is below 14; crazy low.
Rest of the list some you can't mention, some mirror of stocks that are definitely securities https://cointelegraph.com/news/sec-labels-61-cryptocurrencies-securities-after-binance-suit n addition, the SEC has deemed that these 13 Mirror Protocol mAssets are securities: Mirrored Apple Inc. (mAAPL), Mirrored Amazon.com, Inc. (mAMZN), Mirrored Alibaba Group Holding Limited (mBABA), Mirrored Alphabet Inc. (mGOOGL), Mirrored Microsoft Corporation (mMSFT), Mirrored Netflix, Inc. (mNFLX), Mirrored Tesla, Inc. (mTSLA), Mirrored Twitter Inc. (mTWTR), Mirrored iShares Gold Trust (mIAU), Mirrored Invesco QQQ Trust (mQQQ), Mirrored iShares Silver Trust (mSLV), Mirrored United States Oil Fund, LP (mUSO), Mirrored ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (mVIXY).
https://cointelegraph.com/news/sec-labels-61-cryptocurrencies-securities-after-binance-suit n addition, the SEC has deemed that these 13 Mirror Protocol mAssets are securities: Mirrored Apple Inc. (mAAPL), Mirrored Amazon.com, Inc. (mAMZN), Mirrored Alibaba Group Holding Limited (mBABA), Mirrored Alphabet Inc. (mGOOGL), Mirrored Microsoft Corporation (mMSFT), Mirrored Netflix, Inc. (mNFLX), Mirrored Tesla, Inc. (mTSLA), Mirrored Twitter Inc. (mTWTR), Mirrored iShares Gold Trust (mIAU), Mirrored Invesco QQQ Trust (mQQQ), Mirrored iShares Silver Trust (mSLV), Mirrored United States Oil Fund, LP (mUSO), Mirrored ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (mVIXY).
Things will only get Grizzly is the VIX breaks 60 and there’s a major issue with tradfi. With VIX above 75 I could see bear whales taking us on a flash wick to $12-13k. Would be amazing, and I will surely have a ladder of limit buys if it starts to show on the horizon.
1 hour ago I said “Does anyone feel like we are on a crossroad right now” A whale read that and said… Allright 
That VIX rejection off of 17.5 is crazy. We're back to under 16.5.
Im not being pessimistic, VIX is out of control high and people are dumping everything everywhere. Nothing has anything to be optimistic about. This is a realistic forecast.
Much like investing in the VIX, or even options. BITC is similar. There are no earnings, no assets, and you can only get out if people want to buy you out. It's just a way of making a trade.
tldr; In April 2023, ETH will undergo a Shanghai upgrade to become a proof-of-stake (PoS) blockchain, which is expected to significantly improve the network's performance. Bitcoin’s upcoming release of coins recovered from the Mt. Gox hack of 2014 could also affect the crypto market. Inflation, the Dollar Index, VIX, FOMC meetings and bond yields are some of the major determinants that dictate the price direction of crypto. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR. Get more of today's trending news [here](https://coinfeeds.substack.com).*
I have no support from my family, friends or wife. The family wants me out as soon as I break even, same for my wife. The friends think crypto is a very bad investment (but they want to make money with the VIX indicator).