HY

Xollector

I’m not sure where you are seeing the growing … Their 2022,2023, 2024, 2025 FY revenue were 63.1B, 54.1B, 53.1B, 52.9B. Their 2026 HY is expected at 27.6B… looks like pretty much flatline compared to any other hardware companies

Financebro30150

This is the right framing. The credit market is basically agreeing with you — IG spreads have stayed tight and HY hasn't blown out despite the macro noise, which tells you institutional money isn't pricing a recession probability high enough to de-risk aggressively. The historical pattern with oil shocks is that the first derivative matters more than the level. A spike from $70 to $90 in 6 weeks is disruptive; $90 sustained for 18 months starts showing up in transportation costs, then input costs, then consumer behavior, then guidance cuts. We're probably in the early innings of that transmission chain if oil stays elevated. Where this thesis breaks down is if Q2 guidance starts showing explicit margin compression from energy inputs. Right now Q1 earnings beats are still absorbing the narrative. But if companies start pre-announcing misses tied to energy costs, the market's "show me" stance will flip quickly. Worth watching industrials and discretionary more than energy itself as the leading indicator of that inflection.

Designer_Respect4285

Ticker HY9H

Master_External9526

the tell is TIPS breakevens staying sticky while HY spreads compress. equities hear "credit risk is fine" and ignore inflation pricing. Q2 earnings will settle which side was right

Academic_Ad3607

You're asking the right question, and the answer is probably yes — the shock is already happening, the question is duration and severity. This Hormuz "opening" is the 8th optimistic diplomatic signal since the conflict began. The prior 7 reversed within 24-72 hours. The April 9 ceasefire specifically produced an oil crash followed by a $16+ round-trip when talks collapsed. The market keeps pricing resolution while the physical reality hasn't changed — Rystad estimates $58B in Gulf energy infrastructure damage that takes years to rebuild, Iran halted all petrochemical exports indefinitely, and the IEA's own timeline on EU jet fuel is \~6 weeks from depletion. Meanwhile, 40% of global nitrogen fertilizer trade transits Hormuz. India urea hit $1,000/ton (doubled). Cattle futures are at record highs (+25% YoY, herd reduction takes 2-3 years to reverse). Combined with doubled fertilizer costs, Odessa grain export threats, and 300% freight rate increases, you've got at least three simultaneous upward pressures on the food component of H2 2026 CPI — and that's a channel that operates on agricultural cycle timelines where planting decisions now affect retail prices 3-6 months later. credit side is equally revealing. HY bond fund outflows hit $14B while IG spreads sit at 1990s lows — a divergence now in its 5th consecutive day of widening. HYG options put/call ratio climbed to 4.82 (from 3.89 pre-blockade). JPMorgan and Barclays just launched CDS on private credit funds (Apollo, Ares, Blackstone) — the first instruments to directly short the $1.7T private credit market. That's the kind of infrastructure that gets built when institutional credit investors see a stress event in the 4-8 week window. And the Beazley $1B marine war insurance facility launched on the \*same day\* Iran declared Hormuz open — Lloyd's underwriters with real capital at risk are building infrastructure for prolonged conflict while equity markets celebrate peace. data shows $86B in hedge fund equity buying, creating the largest positioning overhang since the conflict began. If talks fail within 10 days, that unwind creates forced selling that amplifies any deterioration well beyond normal equity beta. The short version: the market has priced near-certainty of resolution while structural damage persists regardless of diplomatic outcomes. **The shock is already embedded in the real economy; the only question is whether financial markets catch up gradually or all at once.**

Independent_Name_601

Think of your current portfolio (whether it be $10 or $100,000 or more) as wage income when scaling in after selling out. 1) define a scale in period (6-12 months). 2) once investing period is defined I take $100 per $1,000 and throw it into a bond fund or HY Money Market fund right away. 3) then I take the remaining $900 per $1000 and set up a liquidity buffer (usually 10%) and invest the remaining $810 per $1,000 each period. Example: If I have $26,000 and I want to scale in over 12 months (bi-weekly) that’s $1,000 every two weeks. I immediately take $2,600 and throw into a HY Fund. The remaining $23,400 then is broken up into $900 increments where I allocate $90 for quick liquidity and invest the remaining $810. I pick same day same time. On any corrections (10% or more) I will take 50% of my built up liquidity and buy immediately. I will then readjust my bi weekly contributions to recoup that flash buy. So your immediate liquidity at the end of 12 months should be $2,340 and you have $2,600 in the HY Fund. Plus all the accrued interest. Once you get all the $23,400 invested you can then invest the remaining $2,340 or maintain a liquidity buffer in the event of a correction. If the market falls 20% or more I’d deploy the full $2,340. On a mega drop I’d take 50% or HY savings and deploy that. This will leave you with a portfolio that is 95% invested (scaled in) with a 5% buffer. I’d a 50% drop never occurs don’t touch the HY Savings this is your market collapse money. That’s how I do it.

Some-Platform1968

This is more about matching your investments to the time horizon. Equity and short investment periods are not a good match. That’s why target retirement date funds remove much of the equity as your near retirement…not enough time to make up big losses. Put in the stock market what you’d be comfortable losing 30% on (ala 2008 GFC). The rest can go in HY savings account or something like that

Master_External9526

credit and rates don't agree with this. HY spreads ripped tighter but TIPS breakevens stayed sticky. equity reads 'less bad than worst case', rates are still pricing inflation. splits like that don't resolve clean. not chasing 7000.

peter_lynch_jr

I'll do a portfolio update in August when the FY26 report is due. I'm currently -67% (-$150k aud) in the red if you need to know. Why is Adore Beauty undervalued at current market cap of $32 million: Trading close to asset liquidation value of approximately $25 million. Priced like a dying company. Trading at Price/Sales ratio of 0.16 - even a mediocre retailer with no growth potential would trade above 0.50 PS ratio. Priced like a dying company. Considering 85% of beauty products are still sold in physical stores, Adore likely has a significant revenue growth runway. Management already rejected a buyout offer of $1.30 per share for undervaluing the company and that was before the store rollout. Why is it trading so low? 70% of shares are held by founders/management and institutional investors meaning these shares are essentially illiquid. The remaining 30% free float was spooked by a slight decrease in gross margins and costs of opening physical stores. A small free float can drastically move share price with sudden trading volume. Pretty much a panic sell. Oldest store wasn't even 10 months old at the time of the HY26 report so the 18 stores the company now operates haven't had a chance to contribute a full years worth of revenue. The play here is will the physical stores results in margin expansion, contribute significantly to revenue and reduce marketing and customer acquisition costs. In HY26, marketing spend was down 5% and customer acquisition costs down 50%. I was happy with a $1 per share cost basis. $0.34 per share is an absolute bargain. I'm confident the company (as is) will return to a $100m market cap and the continued store rollout will push the company to above $200m market over the next 2-5 years.

Puzzled-Intern-7897

My goal was to have a falsifiable stat that I can test my thesis with. If I am wrong on supply chains, I will definitely be able to tell through clothing brands. That is the information I am interested in. If they reduce forward guidance significantly I will go heavily into commodities and utilities as they are most inflation proof. Overall I tried to argue for a contrarian thesis based on freely available data within a short time span, kind of to test my strength of finding arguments. The trade I am still interested in, and I do use HY spreads and CCC spreads to get a grasp on what institutional investors believe the risk to be at the moment. My problem really is that I disagree with their optimism regarding the ceasefire.

UnclePsilocybe

HY OAS went down and breadth is up. What in mavr9 is deteriorating? Honestly question

Crips_Ahoy177

I’m gonna lay low for a while, withdraw everything, pay off all debt, put the rest in a HY savings account. Walking out of the casino while I’m up

shiroandae

Based on what assumptions? They will take over all telecoms in the world in the next calendar year (it’s always the next one with him innit), and all countries in the world will start extensive space programs and only use SpaceX, and also all data centers will be closed down and converted to space ones by 2HY 2027?

Jeff__Skilling

including private HY debt in 401k portfolios = tyranny?

Complex-Note-5274

friendly reminder HY spreads jumped 21 bps last friday

Spaceisveryhard

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UWM/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMhMPICjFylVjPN6nmho5-5BZpZu7Ml_A3tZjbM5TH-0WkMBTh-X2Wijy8EnEJoae6kPfOFsctYM7S32Jfs7zCr7G08JVYNzVDbeyXlgszhKqLdNGIkDw6fusVUm3-HY4yKm_YmA2q9NZJREtvW3BFIt57NqBGRJV6EOb7EnlMes

writer951

HY dividends could be good, but don't forget about the tax implications over 3 years. Feels like you'd need pretty consistent returns to beat out the stability of precious metals, esp. if the market dips. Just my 2 cents!

Nyczboy22

So many ill informed people surrounding private credit and evergreen funds. Default rates in middle market private credit, historically have been lower than BSL or HY. The asset class benefits from smaller club (lenders) that can work strategically with the portfolio company/sponsor should the business underperform. Gates and redemption limits are explicitly detailed in offering docs and investors sign up knowing very well they are buying into funds primarily invested in illiquid assets. I’m long BX, OWL, and ARCC. Those mgmt fees aren’t going away and the underlying collateral quality seems to still be sound. AI and software disruption is real - but definitely a bit overblown as it relates to many of the businesses these PC managers lended to.

Legitimate-Relief128

I'd throw credit spreads on this list too. HY OAS from FRED is free and when IG spreads start widening before equities sell off it's been one of the best leading indicators I've tracked. Equities are always the last to know.

Readonly00

What's the ticker? I only see HY9H on Gettex in Euros

Fenc58531

That is factually false. PSKY was a BBB- company before, which is IG, and now has been downgraded to BB+ which is HY/Junk.

champagnepopi

That's not the issue. Liquidity of $SMSN is as bad as $HY9H

Immobile_Threat

9 months worth of living expenses as emergency fund in HY savings. Everything else goes into index funds

AlphaEcho84

Corporate credit is the one that keeps me up. Investment grade spreads are near historic tights and everyone treats IG bonds like they're basically risk free. But a lot of these companies levered up when rates were near zero and now they're rolling debt at much higher coupons. The "safe" BBB bucket is enormous compared to what it was pre-08, and one notch below that is junk. A recession that forces a wave of downgrades could get ugly fast because the HY market isn't deep enough to absorb all of it. The fallen angel risk is real and nobody prices it in during good times. Private credit is another one. It's been the darling of institutional allocators for a few years now but the marks are basically whatever the manager says they are. There's no daily price discovery, so volatility looks artificially low which makes it look safe on paper. When defaults actually pick up you'll see the real risk, but by then the money is locked up.

HlpM3Plz

Low-key the S Korean chip makers who supply Nvidia with HBM will run cuz of this. EWY, FLKR, KORU for ETFs with exposure to the sector. HY9H on the Frankfurt Exchange if you're willing to jump through hoops to buy 100% SK Hynix, which has a major catalyst coming once it gets an ADR listed on US Exchanges.

HlpM3Plz

FLKR is similar to EWY and has much lower management fees. You can buy SK Hynix on the Frankfurt Exchange (HY9H).

Inevitable-Sugar-182

Try looking for HY9H ticker inside the ISA. It's SK Hynix which you can buy on the Frankfurt exchange. I'm avoiding this stock despite its dominance and have bought Micron instead.

Complex-Note-5274

Looking at SOFR and HY spreads. Someone tell me how deep should my puts be

Mnshine_1

Miserable profit when every WDC, MU, STX, SMSN, HY9X doing 100% beat, negative p/e, ad profit margin that is impacted by hardware costs

Educational_Pop6138

Not in the US but you can still get it via HY9H (its GDR) on the Frankfurt exchange. I use IBKR.

EventSevere2034

Tesla is trades north of 355x yet isn't even competitive against Chinese EVs that cost half as much. Musk pawning another 300x company onto hot potato buyinsg is his business model. The market doesn't have a gag reflex right now. But I think the OP is wrong about why it would collapse. Institutional investors developing standards isn't a catalyst, it's a fairy tale. What actually breaks these things is a liquidity event. In 2008, people forgot oil hit $147/barrel before Lehman went down. Energy costs brake the weakest leg, which was housing then. Today oil is about $62, the fed rate at 3.64% and HY spreads are sitting at 3 bps. The weakest leg today isn't housing, it's the $1.3T in corporate debt imo. Google is selling 100 year debt, i mean lets go. The SpaceX IPO isn't the bomb, it's the clock.

PandakatFinance

You can buy it through GDR. It’s listed on Germany, ticker HY9H

YouTube_WohltatTV

I prefer those atm due to NAND and SSD stortage and the imho upcoming HDD shortage: SK Hynix (HY9H @ Frankfurt), Micron (MU), Samsung (SMSN @ London), SanDisk (SNDK), AMD, Intel (INTC), Kioxia (KI5 @ Frankfurt, 285A @ Tokio), NVIDIA (not kidding). Maybe adding some more WDC and Seagate (STX). Just check DRAM (e.g. 96GB DDR5 6000 mhz), SSD prices (e.g. 16, 30, 32 TB) and HDD prices at your local price comparison website. DDR5 SD-RAM is more or less sold out or only available for 4x the price of November 2025.

yatruthordare

If there is a liquidity issue - if HY OAS widens and SOFR rises then it’s a systemic stress event similar to 2008. Gold crashed.

Educational_Pop6138

HY9H. GDR for Hynix available in the Frankfurt exchange. Accessible from IBKR.

Johnny_Suede

[Always buy under arrow](https://youtu.be/8wAYb-PnRGY?si=zA5eid1h7fEvf3HY)

derfahrer924

I plan to retire within a year, and this is how I am setting things up. 5 yrs worth in SGOV + a bond ladder. Intermediate term is a mix of corp and HY bond ladder (using iShares fixed duration ETF). The rest is in a mix of equity ETFs and a handful of individual stocks I don't want to be in a position of having to sell stocks during a downturn in order to withdraw living expenses. I've seen that happen to a number of people during both the dot-com crash and the GFC.

Krls78

SK Hynix (000660.KS) Korean Won, (HY9H) EUR

dodgyboygomez

>When's the last time they made something major? I'm with OP. Not for the hardware though. Atari's revenue increased from ~€10m in 2023 to expected ~€60m this year, mainly through smart acquisitions of smaller studios who have an edge in their niche. They just announced to acquire 100% of the distressed Swedish publisher Thunderful, who are about to release an absolute masterpiece in March 2026. Just check out the [trailer for REPLACED](https://youtu.be/C3bbZ_I8Ehg?si=pVSnKGpGeZVgCIj0), which has been in development for almost 10 years. The game sits at around 0.74m wishlists on Steam (#62) and I think there will be more with similar potential. Atari is no longer what most people think it is. It looks like they can turnaround to positive current operating income this year for the first time since 5 years, according to the outlook in their [HY report](https://www.actusnews.com/fr/atari/cp/2025/12/23/atari-half-year-2025-2026-results) released last week. It should be considered through, that the hypergrowth is financed by massive loans from their main shareholder, a gamer from Minnesota, who already owns around 42% of the shares with the option to increase to something around 57%. Most retail investors are waiting for this dilution (happening latest July 2026) and institutions seem to stay away from the stock for that reason. It is a risky turnaround/growth play with some value in the name and IP (>400 titles) and I like it because I'm into video games. They do a lot more fun stuff ([Bubsy 4D](https://youtu.be/H4bq6P8e5gk?si=yh9mtrmg-I1KzV4X) created some buzz at Gamescom this year) and personally I can't see many opportunities quite like it in this market.

dieselbp67

I would put 25k into spx etf, 10k into a us smid vehicle, 5k into eafe, 5k into short duration HY, 5k into bank loan ETF

Gorgenapper

Just watched some channel where a British chef spent 5 hours to cook up a pub burger that [looked nothing like a burger](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7pIWhvXi_HY), just piled up 15" high like a giant 🍆 it looked like you were supposed to start deep throating it. Puts on the UK

meeyamee22

3x net leverage is exceptionally manageable for a defensive company with Netflix’s cash flow. They will likely retain single-A credit ratings that are 4 notches above HY territory. The debt is going to be quite cheap to the company - meaning it won’t offer lenders a ton of spread. Google’s most recent 30 year bond is only 5.45% at approximately 75bps of spread. Netflix will likely only offer around 90-95bps, if that’s any indication of how strong of a credit profile they have.

FewNegotiation1101

Agreed but markets can stay irrational longer than a trader can stay solvent. There is the option to not play but odds can shift against speculation depending on the money markets i.e. gov bond yields and credit spreads within IG and HY.

Sea-Being56

I work in private credit and used to work in high yield. No way 100% cov lite HY stronger (fundamentally) than UMM vanilla PC. Sure, there are pockets of PC that are garbage, but most of those areas aren't mainstream.

Spedicey007

BLNE 

Hot-Fox-8797

We’re so big that the asset allocation stays pretty stable. Exception being growing asset classes growing like private credit etc. But high level stock vs bond pretty stable. I think hy bonds look good compared to stocks currently when looking at HY bonds YTW vs a lot of stocks FCF yields

Actual-Ad-7852

You’re participating in the stock market. Never stupid to pull out funds and have some dry powder when you feel it’s necessary. You’re incurring the taxable event at the end of the day, so critics of your decision can go kick rocks. With that being said, I disagree with the timing. Think we’re still relatively early in the AI super cycle. Ppl comparing this to dotcom are casuals. Valuations healthier, less aggregate leverage, clear signs of infrastructural buildout, and unprecedented institutional and consumer adoption. David Sacks said it best: you can’t be simultaneously afraid of an AI bubble and believe that it wil quickly force a labor market regime shift from efficiency gains - the two are mutually exclusive. I believe the latter, not the former. Where I would advise you against your initial strategy is your plan with the dry powder. HY/Bonds at 25? You’ve had a nice run, but I think that’s a bit conservative at your age. Also, even if we crash 30%+… name a more investable theme than AI in the intermediate/long-term. You may have some of these application software names go to zero and overstated future earning potential realized over time. But NVDA, AVGO, GOOG, META, TSM - all fundamental players of AI value chains with fairly competitive moats. Indicators of overbought conditions are a relative measure (we’ve never seen a market or theme like this). AI, in my view, is a Renaissance, not some fad that helps you write papers and book meetings. It will quite literally revolutionize societal behavior to accelerate scientific, sociocultural, and existential pursuits. Long winded way of saying: 1) I think you mistimed the top (and that’s ok) 2) Buy these same names cheaper - but perhaps start dollar cost averaging (buy fractional amounts over time) so that if we keep running 50%+ from here you’re not underexposed 3) Too early to start strategizing HY/Bonds unless you made a fucking killing since April 4) Nice job being engaged in the market. Not saying this in a condescending way either - your view is just as valid as mine. Civic participation in our public equity markets is what makes our country the best.

Living_Ad2045

I would build a portfolio of S&P ETFs, with some amount in HY savings and 10-15% held in gold

borkthegee

> Cash, losing value by the day HY savings accounts are beating inflation right now

StuartMcNight

No. I am not making up that part. Is in OP’s post. He is planning to sit in cash until April lows. If April lows are not reached he will keep on a HY account or bonds. So yes. He said he is out of the market.

shortgamegolfer

You have to be right twice. First you have to wait and see if you were right this first time, and then you have to be right a second time getting back in. Let’s say you are incredibly lucky and are right twice. Way to go, you will definitely do this again, and again you’ll need to be right twice. Odds of that are very slim. Let’s say you are right on the first move, but wrongly buy back in before it dips harder. Now you are more likely to sell the bottom, having regretfully bought back in with weak conviction. You’ll remember that you were right the first time, so let’s just get back to that! Tried to catch the falling knife at the wrong time, so it’s time to sell a little lower, no big deal, and boom, it goes back up without you. Oh shit FOMO back in and boom, that was a dead cat, now you’re back where you started and feel really dumb. Ok let’s say you’re just wrong the first time. Now you’re sitting in HY savings missing the next rally. Finally you FOMO back in at a peak. Michael Burry lost a ton of money by being way too early with his market timing.

Scott7894

Wrong. Taxes. At 25 don’t be afraid of a crash. You can always and HY? Get some financial adviser please

lemonjalo

I’m commenting on this post OP made. “True If I can’t buy back at around the same levels as before I don’t think I wanna buy in again Then it’s bonds and HY savings account” It’s just a funny comment to me. He’s trying to time the market but then he added that he wouldn’t buy in stocks again if he can’t buy in at the same levels. The whole thing is just hilarious.

MJ_Hiking

"don't think I wanna buy in again" like... ever? The market is almost certain to be many times higher by the time you retire, and to greatly outperform bonds and HY savings. If you never buy in, you will miss out on massive gains. Seems like you are way too young to be thinking like this.

One-Brain6531

True If I can’t buy back at around the same levels as before I don’t think I wanna buy in again Then it’s bonds and HY savings account

helpertmuner

I have some really good stocks: 1. HY9H - SK Hynix Inc. 2. DTE - Deutsche Telekom AG 3. PRCX - Prosus NV 4. SAN - Banco Santander 5. SAN1 - Sanofi 6. BBVA - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argenta 7. ISP - Intesa Sanpaolo 8. ENEL - Enel Spa

pedronegreiros94

HY9H on Fidelity /IBRK.

Gelatostonk

Nothing here screams “recession just began.” Labor stress and credit stress are not flashing red; growth indicators are softening (PMIs, cooler retail) but not collapsing. So the Reddit “Great Recession now” takes are premature. Keep an eye on claims trending up, HY spreads >4–5%, and PMIs slipping well below 50 together—that combo would change the story fast.

Boheed

lol look at the HY spreads over the last week. Something's going on with private equity's AI investments and it looks like they're getting ready to sell everything, change their name, and start a new life in Thailand.

Shamusj

I had the same “everything at highs” problem, so I built a dashboard to anchor decisions ([Macropulse.org](https://macropulse.org)). Current prints: ON RRP ~$8.44B, M2 $22.195T (+$79.6B m/m), M2 velocity ~1.39 (flat). That mix usually means slower nominal, not a liquidity mania. My playbook: • Rebalance back to target weights; shave extensions >5% over target • Harvest covered calls on the biggest runners; stash premium in 3–6m T-bills • Escalate to 20–25% cash only on triggers: services PMI <50 for 2 prints, HY spreads +50bp in ~20 trading days, or unemployment’s 3-mo avg +0.3pp It’s not about calling the top; it’s about having tripwires before changing the portfolio’s risk posture.

Shamusj

Highs can run but sometimes it feels a bit scary not holding more cash. My “trim” triggers are: 1) services ISM sub-50, 2) payrolls decelerate with unemployment ticking up, 3) HY spreads +50bp in a month. Today none are tripped; with M2 ↑ but velocity flat, I’m just rebalancing and holding cash for dislocations. To help me with my portfolio decisions I recently created a free dashboard. Feel free to use it anytime if you find it useful: [www.macropulse.org](https://macropulse.org). Best of luck!

IFoundNemo313

I’m currently trying to figure out where to park my money. I’m doing ok in life as I’m in the military and have a family of 7 I take care of. I maxed out my Roth IRA for the year and also put 10% into my TSP a check. I have a HY savings of 17k and put 500 a month. Only thing we owe on is our mortgage and our car loan but the interest rate is so low it will only save us about 1500 to pay off early, so I’m not pressed on it. Any tips on how to learn options trading and other places I can start investing to build more wealth. I’m only 29 and want to build more.

Educational_Pop6138

HY9H on the German board. Thing is a rocketship.

jackieHK1

I'm also considering at least semi- retirement in 5 years. Whats ur strategy to de-risk? I'm 70% in an World Etf, 15% in a tech ETF & 5% BTC. I'm considering selling some of the World ETF & parking the cash in Gold. No real HY savings options in my country, we have time- deposits, I have a little cash in a 30 day one at 3.5% 🤷‍♀️ I woukd prefer to DCA down my current ETFs, they've done well & I've been aggressive with them but if there's a big crash like 40 or 50% + I'll be so screwed. No state pensions or anything in my country & it's expensive. Any suggestions to de-risk would be helpful, the current market is making me uncomfortable.

DryChemistry3196

What % would you consider HY, 4.5%?

BackstrokingInDebt

Why don’t you be more explicit in the fund allocation selection? - if you’re worried about US market, why go into US HY? HY is still betting on US corporate credits. That decision doesn’t fit your thesis - 20% DM. How much overlap to US is there? Makes your tracking abilities that more difficult. I suggest a DM ex-US so that each select have mutually exclusive holdings.

Electrical_Sir_4161

FWIW, I like the outline you’re sketching. The path you’re describing usually leaves fingerprints in the internals before it shows up in price. A few tells I watch: * Blow-off risk: higher highs on *weaker* sponsorship (internals diverge), leadership narrows to fewer mega caps, and HY spreads start to leak wider even as the index grinds up. * Healthy Q4 melt: pullbacks get bought with *rising* sponsorship, breadth improves, and defensives don’t outperform on up days. * Air-pocket Jan: sharp down moves coincide with sponsorship rolling over across timeframes, plus poor earnings revisions breadth. On the AI/ROI angle, I agree the story will hinge on whether capex translates to margin/Rev growth—if it doesn’t, you’ll see it first in positioning before headlines catch up. Side note: I built a simple 0–100 “Structural Index” (STIX) that tries to isolate institutional participation by timeframe. It’s been helpful as a sanity check—e.g., if price rips while STIX slips, I fade strength; if price dips while STIX climbs, I buy the weakness. If anyone wants to kick the tires on a couple tickers/sectors to track your thesis, DM me and I’ll comp a 24-hour pass. No list, no spam, no obligation—just institutional grade data in exchange for feedback on my data platform in beta.

fudge_mokey

>Last time I checked, HY spreads are significantly below LT avg at 300bps. So uh..what were those HY spreads doing in 2007?

HotHamWater_69_420

[Yevgeny Prigozhin](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS964US964&cs=1&sca_esv=78726570b3b899ae&q=Yevgeny+Prigozhin&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwih6oi68JuPAxWnD1kFHZybJuMQxccNegQIAhAB&mstk=AUtExfDj4QjdBklQVSUjBcqn3Hz0ou39B7t9HiTnNOPv9BcupiqlzlQ-rKJWHrNEFqh5KIqvk4l3YQAE41jYolFe4SpK5MDJgTOQaTLnvlYnS3HY9l6l_0L9uKBRM7RqnhMV7hORmYBgCKba-aW0R80N6SYWeEVC9ONe_f7g8o4D98-Qb2mx7VF3UgPa7GQyhEoJccGoDMZP9DHohiGCsCrIKP5WOom40VKZ9NAELeJhY6xbsw&csui=3)ed?

careyectr

Markets don’t need perfect politics to go up — they need profits to rise and the discount rate/risk premium to stay manageable. Right now, S&P 500 earnings are still expanding (Q2 y/y ~+12% and 2025 still penciled at high‑single‑digit growth), forward P/E is ~22x — rich but historically survivable when growth is positive — and credit markets are calm with HY spreads under 3%. Add a genuine AI/data‑center capex boom and a productivity uptick, and you’ve got real offsets to the headwinds you listed. Could we be topping? Sure — valuations lower forward returns and shocks happen — but the tape is being “paid for” by earnings/margins and capex today, not just by blind exuberance. If those pillars crack (EPS revisions roll over, credit widens, or inflation re‑accelerates), the bear case strengthens; until then, there’s a coherent bull case beyond vibes.

DinosaurGatorade

Hindsight isn't worth anything. Does this TikTok celebrity say anything substantial ("Vanguard caught slipping what should be HY into IG funds") or just ragebait using the name "vanguard" and "blackrock"?

HighFreqHustler

Married with a child, I keep 7 months on HYSA, the market can be pretty wild and I hope I never need it but knowing is there helps sleep well at night. Plus interest rates for HY savings are ~4%

Educational_Pop6138

1810 - Elon Musk (pre fall) and Steve Jobs rolled into one. Behemoth in non Western countries and the EV growth looks insane. HY9H - clear leader in the high performance memory segment. They are clear partner for choice for Nvidia and looking to do mass production of HBM4E in H226 which looks like a year or more quicker than MU. MELI - fintech and e-commerce synergises very well. EM also typically does well when the USD falls.

dvdmovie1

The only high yield anything where I actually like management and find it an interesting fund otherwise is BRW, which was taken over by Saba Capital in 2021. A summary from the fund's last annual report in 2024: "Below is an overview of the Fund’s portfolio performance for the period: Closed‐End Funds/Investment Trusts – Closed‐end funds continued to be a meaningful contributor to the Fund’s performance over the last year. The Fund primarily benefited from discount tightening as the average portfolio discount ended the period at approximately 10.7% from approximately 15.6% one year prior. Currently, the Fund holds about 60% long closed‐end funds, which are partially hedged. Cross‐Asset Relative Value Strategy – Dynamic positioning in Credit vs Equity indices (SPX/IWM vs HY index) contributed meaningfully in the third quarter with gamma and vega monetization around the volatility. Long/Short Credit – The Fund’s long exposure to bonds and loans, along with tactical hedges through CDX, served as contributors to the Fund’s performance during the Reporting Period. The Fund has opportunistically increased its allocation to long fixed income securities through investments in U.S. high‐yield and investment‐grade bonds and credit derivatives. Reinsurance – The catastrophe reinsurance market became dislocated at the end of 2022 (with premiums increasing, on average, between 20% and 50%+ YoY). The premium increase from 2022 has persisted, and the Fund has increased the exposure to about 13%. Agency Mortgages – During the depths of the regional banking crisis in Q1 2023, the interest rate volatility was significantly elevated and was “dislocated” compared to both equity volatility and credit volatility. Since then, there has also been a dislocation compared to investment grade corporate bond spreads. Although the dislocation has persisted thus far and led to moderate gains, we believe that this dislocation will likely dissipate. Equities – The Fund’s public equity investments benefited from the market rally and produced moderate gains. They were partially offset by equity hedges in the portfolio in place to neutralize the beta exposure in the Fund. Conclusion We will continue to search for investment opportunities with the goal of creating long‐term value for shareholders. If you have any questions about the Fund, please visit www.sabacef.com. We are grateful for your trust and support. Boaz R. Weinstein Founder and Chief Investment Officer Saba Capital Management, L.P"

Greedy_You6549

Coming from someone in private credit, those covenants are mostly nonsense. Most HY private loans have technically defaulted many times over since the onset of COVID. They just keep issuing amendments, kicking the can down the road until they can offload or exit via sale. Trust me, it’s another ‘08 house of cards. Yes, there are highly attractive investments in the HY private credit space, but those are for the big boys with money, not the public. Just my 2 cents

Classic-Finish-7433

My HY MM is paying 4.23% and down from 5.49% last year. Powell is getting the ‘too-late’ name calling from Potus, but I don’t foresee rates dropping below 4% in 2025

capgain1963

There are about 8k stocks in the U.S. but there are millions of different bond issues because each issuer can offer different maturities and coupons or interest rates. Typically bond issues are identified individually by what is known as a cusip number. When you buy a bond, you are expecting the face amount to be paid at maturity, and for corporate bonds, you generally get interest payments every six months (some pay monthly or quarterly, or annually). Aside from corporate bonds, there are government bonds (sometimes called bills or notes depending on maturity), and Municipal bonds issued by states, cities, school districts or other tax authorities like a port authority to build an airport or port. Corporate bonds are divided into high yield or junk bonds and investment grade bonds. HY/junk bonds are issued by companies that could default. Supposedly, independent rating agencies decide what grade a bond receives. Take these ratings with a grain of salt. When buying a bond, the primary driver of the interest rate associated with it is the credit worthiness of the bond issuer (historically, the U.S. government was considered safest, but this is starting to change), the maturity, e.g. because the credit of the issuer and interest rates can change over the life of the bond, current interest rates at the time of issuance. Most bonds pay back the full principle at maturity, so unless you sell before maturity, you should not lose principal unless you sell before the bond matures or the issuer defaults. Bonds typically trade at $1,000 face value. If a bond is bid at 99 1/2, it means $995.00. Most bonds are bought from dealers at the ask price and valued in your account at the bid price, which means you immediately have a small loss when your position is marked to the market in your brokerage account, unless you do exceptionally well timing the market. Fear not because this small loss will come out in the wash if held to maturity. Another thing to keep your eye on is any call features that are described in the bond issue. Typically, a bond issuer can buy back a bond after issuance at par or $1,000. This can suck if rates are falling and your bond rises in value because it has a higher rate or coupon but gets called away so the issuer can refinance.

LarryStink

The 40 bps gain  today resulted in 10-day realized volatility finishing at 6.85, slightly down from 6.86 yesterday. Essentially, realized volatility has nowhere to go from here unless we start consistently trading under 20 bps per day. Given how illiquid this market is and the persistent headline risk, sustained periods of such low daily moves seem unlikely. The market obviously recognizes this, which explains why both the VIX and VVIX traded higher today. That’s not all—both the 1-month and 3-month implied correlations also rose today. Both IG and HY CDX index spreads widened today as well. It’s uncommon to see higher implied correlations, rising implied volatility, wider credit spreads, and higher stock prices simultaneously. Generally, stocks trade lower when the other factors rise.  This unusual combination suggests the stock market has virtually nowhere left to go from here. You could obviously see more grinding price action tomorrow, especially since it’s Friday, but it feels like the days are numbered at this point.

FatCockFauci

I don’t get all the hate for having a bearish outlook on this sub, folks take it so personally when anyone isn’t a US perma bull. Quite the echo chamber in here. I agree the risks are to the downside than the up for US Equity. We probably go no where for 3 weeks while we are gamma pinned (JPM whale positioning). Cracks in the credit market probably hit before equities show weakness… that is baring some real ugly data print. What are your expiry’s? I wouldn’t go sooner than Sep/Oct I just took my hedges off last week. Heavily in Gold and international. I will look to reload some hedges higher, first in HY credit, then equity. We could very well make ATH before heading lower.

DavidMeridian

This is definitely not without risk in the case of a market downturn. As one of your holdings, you could consider SPHY, a HY bond fund that currently has a 7.7% yield, alongside a stock dividend fund like VYM. Bear in mind that a fall in asset prices could lead you to be caught with your pants down.

MindMugging

Foreign bond seems pretty attractive. Maybe some DM HY index? Or DM aggregate index?

dabby_dan

Dude you keep trying to play it off all silly like “I’m just another silly goose on this sub” but like you are legitimately dumb as fuck. You don’t belong here or anywhere near the stock market. You threw thousands of dollars in the trash and lit it on fire when you bought those absurd/impossible calls. Legitimately unfollow this sub, put your money in a HY savings account, and never invest again.

DavidMeridian

The first step is to come up with an asset allocation, and *then* choose the securities to conform to that allocation. Your allocation can factor in your individual circumstances & concerns. Your very short-term/rainy-day fund should definitely be in a stable fund such as a HY savings account or MM fund in a brokerage account. On the opposite side, long-term assets should be in indices that tend to grow over time (stocks/equities). VTI, VEA, and VWO come to mind. Companies that derive income from foreign markets (even US-based companies) act as an indirect USD hedge (and will deliver better long-term performance than an FX fund). I'm concerned about the USD as well, but it's definitely not going to collapse overnight. If value of USD is eroded due to inflation, then equities is your friend. If value of USD is challenged by other foreign currencies, then the result may be very good for export-driven companies in the US. If you're not sure & want to simultaneously contain your risk while also getting a reasonable return, then a diversified portfolio that you buy/hold is the best option. NB: consider also tax-efficient holdings, for any securities held in a taxable account.

OkSafety85

Wealthfront is an online, HY bank. They have a generic investment fund that blends something of VTI, VOO, etc. The service they offer is that they'll switch out various, mostly similar indices when they go down for tax-loss harvesting. It's more the generic match I'm referring to here. In theory I'd put it into Schwab and manage it myself sticking just to indices and avoid the fees.

QuietNene

I’m no expert but my understanding is that bond funds went down when inflation went up. Buying bonds is essentially buying debt, and inflation erodes debt (good for the debtor, bad for the lender). So the variable here isn’t interest rates but inflation. Rates usually go up when inflation goes up and hopefully they come down as inflation subsides, but it’s not quite so straightforward, as we’re seeing right now. The benefit of bonds is that they generally have a low correlation with the stock market, which makes them a good and safe way to diversify. You also get dividends. As for a HYSA, this is fine but just remember that this is essentially letting a bank invest your money for you. The “HY” part is pretty much always subject to change and will change if and when the markets suffer broadly.

roguehunter

The last missing and very important piece of the crash was the role of AIG. Fixed income investors and banks had massive CDS (single name and index) positions and AIG couldn’t cover the insurance when it was time to pay. This added to the liquidity crunch across uncorrelated asset classes (BSL TLBs, CLOs, IG HY).

Bighorn21

I am not a financial advisor so take this with a grain of salt but the way treasuries have been lately I am happy as a clam letting my stuff just sit in HY. I am planning to re-evaluate getting back into the market end of Sept or if market hits -30% from highs, whichever happens first.

Such-Yam-1131

Solid breakdown. Honestly, the deeper I’ve gotten into HY credit, the more I’ve realized how much nuance gets lost in these fund summaries. I’ve been following a newsletter that actually dissects the capital structure and issuer-level risk. It’s made a big difference in how I look at stuff like HYG.

Swimming_Author_8690

I appreciate your response, and apologize for my lack of clarity. It's really about relative valuation and details in this case. HY is still quite overvalued, and you can use options (puts) to express your point of view for a deterioration in credit, which might result in easier profits. For consumer credit, you can also take a secondary short in AFRM, but that stock has been quite beaten up from its recent high. If Klarna decides to list, you may consider that as a secondary short after the IPO, as it will have a richer valuation. Sezzle is the best short in this space; however, it has no options and is hard to borrow at most brokerages.

xabc8910

HY savings is to protect money, not grow it by any significant amount.

Gammanomics

Oh boy so many forecasts getting cut easily off this. Some obviously will inflate their numbers just for the sake of looking stable for the HY or FY 2026

curiousthinker621

I include HY bonds in my bond portfolio by putting 70% in BND, 20% VCIT, and 10% in VHELX. I don't recommend it because it adds complexity, and it is probably best to take your risk on the equity side. I haven't looked over the last couple of months, but credit spreads were tight at the beginning of the year, so high yield wasn't very attractive at the beginning of 2025.

portfolio_investor

Yes most investors are institutions, but do you think they allocate enough to HY in order to make it "fair value"? Thank you for the backtest, I must have misread the data then. About your last point, it is not obvious that HY bonds are less risky than a total stock market fund. Yes, a bond from a certain company is less risky than a stock from that particular company, but precisely HY bonds are from lower rated companies than a typical total stock market fund

lwhitephone81

Most investors are institutions, and there's no evidence this is happening. \>In fact, international HY excluding US has beaten international stocks excluding US in both returns and lower volatility. I don't think that's true: [https://testfol.io/?s=kiXKZEVFPkG](https://testfol.io/?s=kiXKZEVFPkG) But in any case, no rational market is going to demand higher returns from lower risk bonds than stocks. More risk = more expected return.

portfolio_investor

Thank you for your answer, but this might be not true in some contexts. For example, if every retail investor chooses stocks and bonds over HY, junk bonds would have a liquidity premium, thus having higher expected returns with HY than without it. In fact, international HY excluding US has beaten international stocks excluding US in both returns and lower volatility. Since I am not from the US, this is an interesting question for me.

DoubleSkew

Hey guys, getting ready for a first date right now Do I talk about Credit spreads between investment grade and high yield indices widening, are causing a steepening inbetween HY and IG CDX. Or do I talk about how the PBoC - Central bank of China has to deploy fiscal stimulus to offset fiscal disruptions caused by accelerated tariffs while preserving the value of it's local currency Renminbi? thanks

ThrowawayAl2018

Already mention 2 weeks back to put it into [Pillow Stock](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/s/eJQFL37HY2), you sleep better at night.

Parking_Cut1089

56 now, wow, HY and PE will be cooked if we keep rising like this. Oh and SS

DoubleSkew

Dude I told my cat that IG + HY CDX is starting to move, credit vol is getting blown out & major indices are in bear market territory. and they just meowed at me what does this mean.

DoubleSkew

Dude I told my cat that IG + HY CDX is starting to move, credit vol is getting blown out & major indices are in bear market territory. what does this mean.