CB

ButterBluluv

Where is the upside? $DFSC 229% REVENUE GROWTH FY25 revenue $4.9M, up from $1.5M. Digitization +289%. Q2 FY26 revenue +59% YoY. $3.0M Cash & equivalents Mar 31, 2026 $3.6M Working capital 35.2% Gross margin \~$9.4M Annualized billings $0 Debt Q2 FY26 Why is Defsec still a penny? I 💜’d this company in 2025 when I found them. Been holding for over a year now. When they rebranded from KWest things went to🔥. CB is now $9.73. Anyone see a turnaround?

SuperBearPut

damn that's a nice CB

Vlisa

CB start at 8%

TheRealGreenArrow420

Everyone wanting 10x in a year all the time is ridiculous.. at a 350 CB, i just need msft to be 420 in ayear and ive got my 20%

Vlisa

They managed to skim the CB this time. Lets see if MMs can manage not to ivershoot

amanj41

You’re downvoted but it’s true that would happen. However they won’t raise rates thus no CB

mark000

CB1. Maybe today will see CB2 (-15%)

mark000

This -8% CB activated an hour after the open. Still time for the -15% one to trip. Dayum.

mark000

-8% Circuit Breaker only one hour after opening! Previous close 6755 CB1 (-8%) 6212 CB2 (-15%) 5741 Will it happen? Stayed tuned.

drew-gen-x

If you really believe it's gonna get worse, the 2 stocks you should look at are $CASY and $MUSA. These 2 gas station chains benefit from the gasoline & diesel crack spreads b/c they are free to buy gasoline & diesel from anyone that offers the lowest price that day/week. These 2 aren't affiliated w/ 1 particular big oil/ gasoline refiner like nearly every other truck stop or convenience store chain. I still think you should just BTD in $VT and $VXUS and chill thou. March 2026 didn't end the way you predicted. And even if it does get worse, eventually all the world CB's will just turn on their money printers on to go Brrrrrrrrrrrrr and cash is the last place you wanna have a large position in.

thenorthernwhiteboy

Almost worst stat line than Englands 2 completed passes in 19min Passes were from GK to CB btw

brainrotanonymous

% down from ATH (combined managed port value): -35%; % from CB: +3.8%

Final_Ad9418

CB of 44 . It could go lower after earnings next week

tika_dengu

CB1 on Kopsi

johndsmits

$60 is a F in bargain. Most bag holders are in the 125 range, My CB's 103. We're all cooked. Yeah probably good to unload a few for a loss, chance it going back down or Stripe walking away are high.

TheInkDon1

Oh wow. Sorry, I hadn't consider that it was that much ITM. Yeah, that could happen then, early assignment. And it did of course, to you. So now you own MRAM with a Cost Basis of 30 minus the premium you got, but it's worth only 17.50. You probably know what to do from here, but your options are to immediately sell it and take the loss, or if you think it'll come back, sell Calls against it at your Cost Basis to help cover the loss while you wait. What's your CB? Certainly above 25, and those Calls 38 days out are at 24-delta and only worth 0.81. It would likely take 11 or 12 of those to get you back to even, but that's about a year and 2 months. What I do in those situations is to sell Calls at about 30-delta. Which is where I (and many others) sell Covered Calls anyway. The 22.5 strike is at 33-delta and worth 1.22, 50% more than the 25Cs. That gets you down to about a 9-10 month payback period. Which is still a long time, so personally I'd consider going to the next strike down, the 20C at 46-delta, and sell those for 2.02. That would make up your presumed loss of \~$12 per share down to just 6 months. Of course I'd fully expect to have to roll that out and up, but I'd rather be in that position (capping gains for a time) than selling at 20 to 30-delta with such a high CB. Just some things to think about. Take care, Mike

fudge_mokey

ah i forgot about that famous CB mandate. "match the rate of other CB".

DigBeginning6013

ECB had lower rates than other CB around the globe they matched everyone else's rates you regard

Vlisa

Techincal difference it's a sidecar, CB starts at 8

nccheesehead12

This market more busted than Conor McGregor's leg[](https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=3091aafe0b9f6d1a&sxsrf=APpeQnvM__lhxSXjZA5CB6iWkEStHi29_Q:1783956955220&q=Conor+McGregor&si=APenkKmZgqfzhjaTplg9wNFqC9GzI3TSHcIqi4CzQEZline-yUahDWMgJvrqJ1IoRFxNGAEbElfruCKVkonxEBP_waM4qUaFINDRWKLTxn-_85HZqLaMtAKRVYOzNdtkedowvYOd5xb8pyeiGXXoJ1g2EB5a8Uqqcw%3D%3D&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj6wPDE_c-VAxXCEFkFHRQDLYEQ_coHegQICxAB&ictx=0)

drew-gen-x

If your being serious, I kinda doubt how you fucked up if you have $500k in cash. This place is littered with stock advice from peeps that have no cash in the market pumping comments w/ the help of bots to pump up user engagement to sell to ads to advertisers. If you are serious, just DCA into $VT and buy the entire fucking world. Someone, somewhere will figure it all out. A 12 oz can of coca-cola used to cost 50 cents. A pack of cigarettes used to cost $1.50. The CB's of the world will make sure a Big Mac value meal will cost $50 w/i 5 years. The only think they know what to do to solve crisis is to turn on the money printers to go Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr..............

Vlisa

I'd be surprised. They usually do a pretty good job of avoiding CB. Would not be surprised if we taint tickle it though

twat_muncher

CB doesnt happen until 7 you pleb

AnotherNOP

I would check out Berkshire Hathaway's holdings. They are always solid. **Top 9 holdings by portfolio weight:** |Ticker|Holding|% of Portfolio|Value| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |AAPL|Apple|21.99%|$57.8B| |AXP|American Express|17.43%|$45.9B| |KO|Coca-Cola|11.56%|$30.4B| |BAC|Bank of America|9.52%|$25.0B| |CVX|Chevron|6.64%|$17.5B| |OXY|Occidental Petroleum|6.55%|$17.2B| |GOOGL|Alphabet Class A|5.93%|$15.6B| |CB|Chubb|4.24%|$11.2B| |MCO|Moody's|4.09%|$10.8B| ||

beerion

Idk, municipalities build neighborhoods within that distance of busy highways. The fact is, once in the air, S4's are virtually silent. In contrast, helicopters are a nuisance through their entire mission. [Source](https://www.aopa.org/-/media/Images/AOPA-Main/News-and-Media/2025/09-Sept/Joby/250904_joby_additional.jpg?h=760&w=1350&la=en&hash=E08942FC6B1EC2C0F47CB8A3FC31396E) I could share tons of reference material and videos, but most of the links that I've compiled are prohibited in this sub, I think, so don't want to risk it. But, to your point, yes they are relatively loud during takeoff and landing. But if they're operating from parking garage top levels, roof tops, or purpose built vertiports, you won't hear them at ground level. And of course, they're still much quieter than helicopters from a similar vantage point. We'll see. I'm not a raging bull. I do own a position, but I'm also well aware of the risks. I still think this could be a segway type technology - very novel, but too complex for it's own good. And I think that without rooftop landings, it's going to be hard to compete against a simple Uber ride - a Joby is a 3-legged trip (drive, fly, drive), whereas Uber is just 'shut your brain off and show up at your destination'. And in this scenario, a 3-legged trip really won't save that much time. But it's an interesting technology that does have some legs. And Joby has other irons in the fire. They have autonomous Cessna Caravan flights going with the military. That could be it's own massive market. And the S4 is also going to have a special missions variant for the military (higher payload drones). They're working on hybrid and hydrogen powertrains. So there's some optionality, too. I'm definitely not recommending anyone buy the stock, necessarily - these types of technologies take way longer to play out than most would expect - but I'd say it's definitely one to keep an eye on.

drew-gen-x

I believe we will see mass Venezuela type inflation before we see a stock market crash. When I'm BTD on $VXUS, $VT, $EWJ and $EWY, and $GLD; I am NOT buying b/c I am bullish on the US or World econnomies. I am buying b/c every CB loves to turn their money printers on to go Brrrrrrrrrrr to solve every single economic problem they face. Good Luck.

stuntondeezh0es

It’s 8% for CB in Korea

drew-gen-x

Yes sir, I make sure I always have a Gold position in my port. I consider Gold as insurance. I have found that when the market is doing well, I don't really notice that my gold holdings are underperforming the market. But when those nasty CB's overuse their nasty money printers, Gold usually saves my port when nothing else seems to be working. I prefer $PHYS b/c I like the idea that the gold fund I buy actually owns physical gold. I've hit my 2026 goal so I likely won't add more this year unless it breaks thru current support and falls down to $3500.

Oatmeal_Raisin_

$CB is the play

Hot_Sacks

I thought I was doing well \~3 months ago when I kept buying and got my CB down from $180 to $150 🫠

stuntondeezh0es

Level 2 CB on Kospi incoming?

Icy_Jelly_315

It's a flat day for kospi if there's no CB. Calm the fuck down and carry on

himynameis_

I'm still holding, my CB is $88. Nothing has changed about the business except the market wants semis. Netflix still compounding away and growing with operating leverage. Mark Mahaney said it well with the 5 Mores: more NFL, more subscribers, more countries, more surfaces, more advertising $. It may not grow by 50% like an AI stock, but it should grow very well as fcf continues to compound.

Sufficient_Habit5091

I get it sounds like that. But it really isn't doomer. Things move so much faster today. But even back then countries have gone from dominant reserve currency, envy of the world to chaos in less than 20 years when CB becomes subservient to fiscal dominance.

Sufficient_Habit5091

Can't believe FOMC is finally here tomorrow. I've never anticipated a Fed day as much as this one. Feels like a potential watershed moment and one of the most consequential meetings ever. Deep down I believe they will at a minimum freeze the balance sheet. If they don't and keep printing... IMHO that's it. US is finished, CB independence in the US is dead. And it's every man for himself until we go full banana republic. I'm going mega leveraged bull.

Sufficient_Habit5091

Precious metals is a little different because it has an extreme speculative quality and can be stored for investment. There's CB buying, things like that. It's impossible for retail to beat rapidly consumed commodities though like oil, gas, wheat, etc.

drew-gen-x

Gold went up too far too fast from Jan 24- Jan 26. But Gold may have just bounced last week off that 50% Fib-whatchamacallit. I still believe gold & commodities are in a similar bull market as they were from 2000-2012 as long as CB's around the world leave the money printers on to go Brrrrrrrrrrrr.

AutobusPrime

Try to keep your inner moron from coming out. In the 90s the only connotations 88 had in programmer or nerd world was as an affectionate signoff left over from CB or ham radio slang. And anyway most programmers who weren't BASIC leftovers thought of X as 58.

Sufficient_Habit5091

100% false. Fed literally spent trillions buying up US notes and bonds. >Japan CB rates were low Denying Japan YCC basically makes you a conspiracy fringe theorist at this point.

tachyonvelocity

What a hilarious post. Covid yields were so low because literally no one was spending any money due to everything being shut down, the expectation was deflation. What in the world are you saying about Japan? The historically deflationary environment didn't "make Japan have low interest rates," yields were **low because of deflation**. Japan CB rates were low because of deflation and they were forced into negative rates to try to get inflation back up. Like what in the world are you saying that bond yields don't reflect macro? Insane post honestly.

EagleNoahg

Bro we’re CB ing tomorrow to $700. rate hikes are fucking this rally fora while

LordFaquaad

the gold run up was fueled by global CB buying spree last year / beginning of this year America wanted to fuck ovwr China by taking control of its cheap oil flow. Took out Venezuela first. Now has severely restricted Iran / Gulf oil flow. Gold demand from CBs has decreased due to current energy shock leading to volatility in the market. The liquidity needs / FX management during energy shocks takes precedent Agleast this is my analysis but maybe someone else has a better explanation

drew-gen-x

I mentioned here during the March sell off that I changed from bearish to slightly bullish on stocks due to just that very worry. The Fed and all the other major CB's will just turn on all the money printers to go Brrrrrrrrrr..and try & print their way out of every economic problem. That March sell-off is also when I went to 90% indices/ETF's and down to 10% individual stocks. I do include $GLD as an index position. I mean who needs to trade stocks when $GLD, $VTI, and $VXUS are making 3-4% daily moves???

AnalBeadsInSpace

I'm already in and getting fucking ass raped ($360 CB)

Bichael-Murry

will baby nasdaq give us a level 1 CB? stay tuned until tomorrow!

OxRedOx

Is there any case for me not selling my intel shares (CB 104) in the morning? I’m not seeing one

Hot_Sacks

38% of CB and down 58% from ATH a few weeks ago

NurUrl

Good Job Reports + Inflation = CB Rise interest, Market Basically is Pricing that Future Hike

Specialist-Rub-7655

I'm holding around 10,000 shares at a 2.31 CB. I'm thinking 5-10 years. I like to watch the daily gains but I am emotionally burnt out brother. It doesn't even sting me or hurt me to see losses even though I'm overall a very small fish. I treat it like money I never had in the first place. Accelerated outlook is more like 1-3 years, but I'm looking at more realistic routes and that tells me patience will pay. If I'm wrong, so the fuck be it.

Bilbo_Butthole

My CB on HPE is $14.93, ama

Peirsein

My CB is $200 so it will go to $199 then crash again

Thevsamovies

CB is pretty high, in the 50s, atm cause this is a new position. Calls are $46 strike price.

Dick_Indadert

I still have 100 shares of PLTR. I have been selling CCs on it for a while. My cost basis is now about $26. Should I just keep flogging it for premiums until the CB is $0, or -$? I was doing the CCs for experience, sometimes BTC to capture some profit on dips and so the stock would not be called away to see how all the steps worked, now want to think of a more long term or terminal plan for this stock position. Also a quick question about an ASTS call option I bought stirke 85$ for $15.22 expiry June 26. Last week the price of the option ripped to about $50 (stock price $133), now its down to about $20 (stock pulled back to about $111). Does theta affect how/if the price of the option will increase if the stock prices goes back to $133 by June 6th, or June 13th? Is there diminishg returns after price pull backs even if the price recovers as time burns?

LetsMoveHigher

Well said 👏... This is exactly what is going to happen. This is a rule change to such away your early invested shares of proven companies (Google, CB, Apple ect). The after you sell guess who will move in and buy those shares up. Very sad time to be invested in U.S. Scam Markets but what else do you do? Their own pres ident stated, "It's a casino"!

Total_Rice422

I understand profit is profit but momentum is on our side right now. I sold half my Intel shares at $83, my CB is $27. Sold waay too early, it climbed to $120. My AMD is scaring me but again momentum is on our side. Take profits but dont sell everything, never. I really hope your dumping it into something else and not sitting on the side lines with a bear attitude.

BCECVE

Just bought Chubb Insurance CB, Campbell Soup CPB, General Mills GIS, and my and my flyier Conagra CAG. All have PE of 11 or less. The food stocks are decimated and pay beautifully - we still need to eat food don't we. Also CB is property insurer for the rich -mansions, jets, yachts. Those rich bastards love their toys and will pay. Pretty gutsy to have it all in high tech except for WMT.

Supertainment

CB Consumer confidence print came out higher than expected, rippity rip time

No_Shine_6124

Yo. We are witnessing an economic tectonic prehistoric shift. Source: I’m on 2CB and K

StoneyBalogna7

Prefer CB. Best in class.

LumpyShock9656

Feel free to load up. I'm just not calling 215 an ATH. My CB is 170

BCECVE

Why are you ruining my day - damn it. I was wondering why Googles cloud business was up 60%. I thought that was a low margin business but the stock popped. Back in 2000 everyone was dumping boring old stocks and picking up the latest tech stuff. I had $60 000 and put it into two banking companies and one oil. After the dust settled three years later my portfolio was up to 180 000 and everone else was slaughtered. I was totally confused on what just happened. I think you are right about the comparison but where to put the money? Food stocks are just being given away, so are nat gas stocks, rails, property insureres.... so CNR, CB, TOU, haven't picked a foodie yet. Big in gold as well.

BudRal123

No many CB people go through this. Do I buy or sell? So much of it depends on your age. The stock market will go up and down. Fact of life. If you are young you have time for it to recover. If you are retired you don’t have so much time to recover and you may want to selling stocks and investing in long term interest savings. In your case I think you listed 4 stocks. The fewer stocks you are invested in the greater the risk. If you have a balanced portfolio you can generally withstand stockmarket downturns easier. The whole market may drop 20% but one stock could drop 80% and if you are holding a lot of it and not diversified you could lose most of your money. You have to determine your risk level.

RandomRedditor5689

Looks like even more has traded ... you can scan the daily OI and volume here. [www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CB\*0/options?futuresOptionsView=merged&moneyness=allRows](http://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CB*0/options?futuresOptionsView=merged&moneyness=allRows)

Backroad4wd

I was trapped in it for almost a year before I averaged down to go green and exited at $300 CB 😂

seeellayewhy

I'm in a similar position as OP (and you I guess). I see continued long term growth opportunity in most of my holdings (that's why I buy). That said, and I guess for that reason, I've not really considered an exit strategy. You noted about keeping the low cost basis of the remainder which has me wondering something. I have several like this that I bought over time on a climb. Is there any reason to sell the low cost-basis before or after the high cost-basis? Assuming all are long-term (>1yr) to simplify things here. You'd have to sell fewer shares of the low CB to harvest the same profit as a higher CB lot, right?

vanman33

I fucking hope so. Literally my CB.

Thevsamovies

$1000 for 100 shares of a $10 stock. Sold for $1000. Let's say you bought at $500 so you made $500 profit. 500-150(30%) = 350 profit. Stock drops 15% to $8.50 a share. You buy 100 shares for $850. The stock goes back up to $10 a share. You literally own the same amount of shares but your CB is $8.50 so you'll pay less tax in the future than if it was $5. Regardless of all the other variables that go into this stuff, your own oversimplified math problem doesn't even display the results you claim it does. Lol.

jollygreengoblin2

100% don’t sell it. It’ll print. Just missed an opportunity to potentially get long term cap gains taxes instead of short. Have a few Jan28 $100 calls myself. OP saved $800 a call to buy compared to my CB of $2300 each. Also, lost a year of time. NOW should do very well, barring overall negative market influence.

Daveonaltair4

Not a beeper, but my dad had a CB radio in his work truck that I would screw around with while waiting for him. One day in the early 90s at the height of AIDS scare, I found a channel where a lady was telling this guy that tested positive for HIV and that he needs to get tested and he was losing his shit. It was crazy as hell and 9 year old me is like, "breaker breaker, any good fishin out there? Can I get a copy?"

DrSeuss1020

Absolutely! The CosPaTox rating that they just announced is very likely going under the radar but was really very nice to see. Opens up a whole other major amount of demand. If NJ can finally approve their regulations it would be a massive catalyst, but even if that takes longer this is still a 2-3 year play before seeing massive returns imo. My original thesis is still in tact and I’m hoping for this to be a million dollar position for me by 2030 (bought another 5k shares on this recent drop so new CB is $8.40)

Crazy_Donkies

No CB AH.

drew-gen-x

This is mostly a DXY devaluation trade mixed in with the euphoria of the AI circle jerk bubble. Buy any major dips in $VXUS, $VT, and $GLD . The economy sucks, but the Fed and all the other world CB's will turn on the money printers to go Brrrrrrrrrr on any major market correction.

Scannerguy3000

I was just looking at my UPS today. I don’t have $20k, but my options were closely with profit so I had to stop and think about next moves. I’ll tell you what I did, and would do in your situation. But, if you’re not familiar with these trades, I wouldn’t start something I’ve never done before. I’m not a licensed pro, and this is not financial advice etc. Sell OTM covered strangles. On my lots; I sold both 45DTE, calls above my cost (and adjusted cost basis, naturally), at a fairly low delta, maybe .20 or less. Don’t expect to get called. Same time, selling OTM puts, same date, at a price well below my CB and ACB. Also around .20 delta or further. Be aware, you have to have the cash to secure the potential assigned puts, and be willing to buy. Outcomes: Price stays in the middle, I collect 2 premiums, keep my shares, my adjusted cost basis on the whole lot keeps dropping. Price goes above the far out call strike, my shares sell at a price above what I paid. Price goes below my far out put strike, I acquire more shares, at a price that continues to lower my average cost. Important note: I usually will roll when they hit 50% premium capture or better, or around 21 days if they are at least positive premium capture. I don’t ever spend more money to get out of either leg. I’m ok getting assigned or called. I believe UPS will be fine long term. Oil wars and inflation hit all players. CEOs change, particularly when not performing. This strategy lets me keep my shares (probably), earn credit on both sides (at least one of the premiums will always be kept, usually both). And all the mechanics either continually chip away at my cost basis or sell for a profit. For comparison, I’ve had shares that I thought, “ugh these just turned into dogs”. I sold covered calls, or covered strangles on them until the adjusted cost basis was significantly lower. Like $10 a share lower, or down to single digit dollar cost basis, or even negative cost basis (rare, but it can happen). Then when/if the market likes them again and they do get called and sell off, I’ve been banking a substantial profit like a coiled spring. Usually when this happens I now have a big cash infusion, reduced equities, and if I’m on margin, my equity % goes up (or becomes 100%).

drew-gen-x

Ok it's all the DXY devaluation trade then. That is what the Fed has done since 2009. You asked me why I was buying foreign stocks like $EWY and $EWJ that looked to you like they were also in a bubble. Well look at World ex-US stocks from 2009-2026. They've only looked like they are in a bubble compared to 2021 prices, not 2009 prices or not compared to $SPY in 2009. Other CB's are now following the Fed playbook. BOJ is the easiest example. And US equities are still massively overpriced compared to other World indices that have yet to fully price in 20 years of the DXY devaluation.

drew-gen-x

BOJ will raise rates. They have already signaled a move to 1% by the of 2026. 1% doesn't sound like much but that is 125 bps move higher over the last 2 years while other CB's have/will be cutting interest rates. That should strengthen the Yen as the yield spread compresses b/w Japanese bonds vs US & EU bonds. People forget that all these world currencies are trash. You are looking for the temp cleanest dirty shirt. The Yen has problems; but so does every other fucking world currency.

Unemployable1593

i already have a CB that i’m ok with, but would be willing to add under the right circumstances

SomePolack

CB under $2 I’m up like 500% lmao

drew-gen-x

I agree. Japan 10 yr Bond yields are above 2.50% which is their highest yield since 1997. 2.5% isn't that high compared to most other CB's; but BOJ has held rates near 0% since what 2009? Anyone who has their borrowing costs increases a 1-2x over a year is going to notice. Especially those gamblers that use leverage to buy US stocks with loans in Yen.

a_latex_mitten

could someone remind me his CB?

eskhalaf

**Week of 4/27 Market News and Data** **Hello WSB members, this upcoming week is a heavy week, featuring the Fed Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday. Heavy companies are reporting earnings too** **Tuesday 4/28:** - CB Consumer Confidence (Apr) **Wednesday 4/29:** - Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar) - Crude Oil Inventories - Fed Interest Rate Decision - FOMC Statement - FOMC Press Conference **Thursday 4/30:** - GDP (QoQ) (Q1) - Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Mar) - Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar) - Initial Jobless Claims - Chicago PMI (Apr) **Friday 5/1:** - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr) - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr) - ISM Manufacturing Prices (Apr) **Have a great week @WSBers**

Reverenter

This is the easiest money to make DD: The US won't let them fail for national security reasons. The global economy is tech and the only US semis are from Intel, and making that shit is no joke. Buy dips and wait for China to invade Taiwan within the next 3 years and you'll print. CB @ $25.41

drew-gen-x

New ATH's for $VTI (US), $VT (World plus US), and $VXUS (World ex US). Pick your flavor. Just don't be 100% in cash when all the world CB's and governments crank up those money printers to go Brrrrrrr

theremix18

What’s your CB?

Blade3colorado

This will inevitably happen . . . and, not because I have skin in the game (2753 shares @ $94 CB) either. OP provides specifics of why\*; and, 43 Wall Street analysts that follow this equity mostly agree. Ergo - based on 43 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Nvidia in the last 3 months. The average price target is $273.57 with a high forecast of $380.00 and a low forecast of $220.00. The average price target represents a 37.42% change from the last price of $199.08. \*Good job OP!

drew-gen-x

I've joined banging the drum for BTD but I tend to not buy the economy is booming like others here. The economy and stock market are 2 different things. There are many people hurting in this economy. High crude oil prices usually always lead to a recession. The question is whether $100 crude oil qualifies as high crude oil prices after all the World CB's money printers went Brrrrrrrrrrr following COVID?? I tend to think $100 crude oil in 2026 is equivalent to $60 crude oil before the COVID money printing bomb. I am also against many here buying heavily into World ex US and especially the Pacific Asia markets that are energy dependent. These regions were outperforming the USA before the Iran War even thou the US is energy independent. Europe has its own self infected wounds so I'm less bullish there. But the world can afford $100 Crude Oil after the Covid money printing bomb. We were battling devaluation of the DXY and the Iran War. These are 2 separate trades that are both moving in the same direction b/c DXY has gone straight down since March 31st. But I don't think these 2 separate trades are both going up together for much longer. I'm betting on the DXY devaluation trade over the $SPY ATH trade. I do get your point on natty gas; but this AI cap ex data centers boom isn't being powered with natty gas. It's diesel & your home utility bills that are powering the data center buildout. Good Luck.

drew-gen-x

Stagflation hasn't been priced in yet. But the market is hedging that possibility w/ Gold. I think that's where we are headed thou until world CB's turn on those money printers to go Brrrrrrrrrr I'm just making sure I am hedging & also buying World Stocks ex-US & Gold along with my $VT and US stock buys.

supremekatsu22

Full port $20k into a volatile high beta stock but also has good fundamentals with high confidence and conviction of rebounding if it falls. Set a limit sell at whatever price you want to get out at, but don’t be greedy (e.g., 3-5% is reasonable, 15%+ is not). Don’t FOMO back in if it continues rising, take your gains and be happy. Never went broke making money, even if more money could’ve been made. If the stock falls instead, then sell weekly CCs at least at your CB to hedge. Continue doing this until the stock rebounds back up to your CB to ensure you didn’t lose money. Worse case, you become a bagholder but for a good company, so you continue selling CCs to hedge and make small premiums until the stock gets back to your CB at a minimum. Best case, you scalp a few thousand every day and repeat. Just another wheel strategy, but one that works very consistently for me at least.

Tommyd023

Brought to you by Chubb Limited CB

OPINION_IS_UNPOPULAR

I think it's a pretty solid idea, but my concern is the US not paying up it's guarantees, despite CB being the US's lead insurer.

Tommyd023

I was thinking about doing Chubb limited CB to get exposure to higher insurance premiums for ships crossing/stranded in Hormuz. Is anyone else doing this? Thoughts?

drew-gen-x

The bottom is already in. We were due for a pullback anyway w $QQQ up for 8 straight days. I guess $SPY was technically Red Friday. The bigger question is will $TLT catch a bid? If US Treasuries & DXY can't rally there is no reason to not BTD in equities. We're not getting deflation this time. All world CB's will go Brrrrrrrrrr before the EOY.

DueCompany4790

The difference is CB policy dumbass. That's literally the only thing, debt monitization became the norm post-GFC.

OftenOlives

I've moved a lot of my DCA over there to try to get my CB down. Christ helped me.

drew-gen-x

Inflation is much worse in the USA than Canada & Japan & most of the US other allies I believe. The one thing that turned me slightly bullish on equities is that I think the new norm is for all CB's to print and not mark to market banking losses like they did in 2008. I think COVID taught them to print themselves out of every economic problem. There are gonna be huge losses in private credit. But if Fed goes brrrrrrrrrr will markets even notice & fall that far??

Icy-Sheepherder-7595

Nice to see CB on here, pissed I sold it

drew-gen-x

Downvote all you like. This is free form discussion of ideas. Also this is the bottom before earnings. If the Big Tech AI Cap Ex hyperscalers continue to refuse to listen to the market and do not cutback on their AI cap ex spend they could definitely take the market lower after their earnings call. Also a few have asked why I have turned from bearish to kinda bullish. It's the DXY dollar devaluation trade. The USD is losing more value faster than I anticipated vs foreign currencies, commodities, & gold. I don't believe we are guaranteed to get that deflation we would in a normal, free market during an economic downturn. The world CB's may print & go Brrrrrrr instead to paper over our current economic problems.

Afr0Karma

CB follows BTC. As long as BTC goes down I think so will CB. Maybe end of year once BTC bottoms

drew-gen-x

We have 2 trades going on in the market right now. 1. The war/crude oil/ the economy sucks trade. 2. The DXY devaluation trade. DXY is back under 100. World stocks ex US are moving higher than $SPY on that trade this morning. If you look at the 3 month chart for $VXUS, that world indice ETF had a beautiful bounce off it's 200 DMA after putting in a double bottom. I think the bottom is in until Big Tech / AI cap ex hyperscalers start reporting. We may not get the deflation I was looking for if all world CB's go Brrrrrrrrr at the first sign of cracks in the economy.

FairMongoose5583

> Does this hurt Coinbase and Robinhood, or does it just expand the overall pie? that depends entirely on what fees they will charge and what coins they support in the future. fidelity entered the crypto market and charge a 1% fee for buying and selling. if schwab is the same, yeah they’ll enter the market and some people will buy but it won’t put a huge dent in CB or RH’s customer base. in order to compete, they’ll have to have lower fees and support more coins

RevolutionaryPhoto24

Definitely undervalued, very much like the company, but wouldn’t consider it a 5-10x. Also, I am wary of anything consumer facing. (Still holding at a CB of abt 22 tho.)