CTA

SpaceSniffer69

I disagree with you The recent selloff wasn’t merely a leverage-induced shakeout amplified by negative gamma—it was a macro-driven repricing of risk, and treating it as a manufactured cascade understates the structural forces at work. Dealer gamma wasn’t deeply negative through most of the decline, CTA exposure was light, and realized vol didn’t meaningfully outpace implied, so the feedback loop you describe may have accelerated moves but didn’t initiate them. What actually triggered the drawdown was the break higher in real yields, renewed inflation expectations, tightening liquidity from Treasury issuance and QT, and downward revisions to forward EPS outside the AI megacap cluster. Those are fundamental valuation shocks, not noise. Flow data also contradicts the idea that large funds “bought the panic”—prime brokerage reports show hedgies cutting gross and net exposure, ETF primary flows were net redemptions, and mutual funds remained sellers. And technically, simply reclaiming the 20/50-day MAs won’t repair market structure while breadth is deteriorating, vol correlation is elevated, and the VIX term structure remains flattened. In short: this wasn’t a narrative-engineered flush but a genuine shift in discount rates, earnings expectations, and liquidity, with systematic flows acting as amplifiers—not architects—of the move.

luv2block

You should have sex with a CTA.

statsContango

Congrats but there is a give and take everywhere. Selling options does have a higher probability of generating a profit and is a common way CTA’s CPO’s generate stable returns while reaping management fees and shares of profit. Long term though, given the fat tail distribution of options, your risking blowing up

AICHEngineer

Volatility is still relatively low, but creeping towards mid tier imo. We are still well above historical prices which is bullish for low volatility / decent rise. Money is being made, taco trade is still taco'ing. Normally, you should only hold the portfolio you can stick to, so why are you doubting now? Some signals are flashing red, like junk bonds trending down in value or people taking out short term vix positions to hedge, but other signals are flashing green. Its not rosey cheeks 6% volatility plus strong RSI like a month ago. If youre just investing in the index, id probably say just stay the course. If youre worried about recession, maybe take out some intermediate treasury exposure via IEF or direct purchase of ITTs from treasury direct (or if youre high conviction, LTTs like ZROZ), and if youre worried about stagflation... Wellll you better fight for a raise at work, and maybe learn about managed futures trend ETF offerings like KMLM, CTA, DBMF, AHLT, stuff like that.

Ok_GAINZ

Bers have 2 days to push SPX below 6550. CTA’s are net sellers this week. If SPX holds above 6600 to end the week, with tech earnings coming up and numbers still cooked, bers will be crying AI bubble into extinction.

mufasis

This is expert level trading, well done, we did this at my mentors CTA but we were using calendars.

kirillmaster

Hi everyone! Sorry to jump into an off-topic thread, but could you please help me validate this idea? I caught myself doing the classic tilt and FOMO after the last “whole market was a scam” day, and it gave me an idea: an AI agent for ludo tendencies in trading. It is a personal journal plus simple practices for people like me (lol). Product Landing: https://ai-trading-discipline.replit.app/ I pulled together a quick pain map from trader posts and hacked a landing to get feedback. What do you think about the product idea itself? Would you try it for a week and, if it helped, consider paying for it? Please roast the idea. Is this cringe, or does it have a real audience? If you have a minute, I’d love blunt feedback: - In 5 seconds, does the hero make sense? - Is the CTA “Get rid of tilt” helpful or try-hard? - Which guardrail would actually stop you on a bad day: DDL cap, max-trade cap, enforced cooldowns, or a pre-trade checklist? - What is missing to trust it enough for a 7-day test? Do not judge the layout or styling. I put the page together in a couple of hours to package the idea and ask for feedback. No signals. Not financial advice. Text here or DM please if you have some thoughts!

kirillmaster

Hi everyone! Sorry to jump into an off-topic thread, but could you please help me validate this idea? I caught myself doing the classic tilt and FOMO after the last “whole market was a scam” day, and it gave me an idea: an AI agent for ludo tendencies in trading. It is a personal journal plus simple practices for people like me (lol). Product Landing: https://ai-trading-discipline.replit.app/ I pulled together a quick pain map from trader posts and hacked a landing to get feedback. What do you think about the product idea itself? Would you try it for a week and, if it helped, consider paying for it? Please roast the idea. Is this cringe, or does it have a real audience? If you have a minute, I’d love blunt feedback: - In 5 seconds, does the hero make sense? - Is the CTA “Get rid of tilt” helpful or try-hard? - Which guardrail would actually stop you on a bad day: DDL cap, max-trade cap, enforced cooldowns, or a pre-trade checklist? - What is missing to trust it enough for a 7-day test? Do not judge the layout or styling. I put the page together in a couple of hours to package the idea and ask for feedback. No signals. Not financial advice. Text here or DM please if you have some thoughts!

kirillmaster

Hi everyone! Sorry to jump into an off-topic thread, but could you please help me validate this idea? I caught myself doing the classic tilt and FOMO after the last “whole market was a scam” day, and it gave me an idea: an AI agent for ludo tendencies in trading. It is a personal journal plus simple practices for people like me (lol). Product Landing: https://ai-trading-discipline.replit.app/ I pulled together a quick pain map from trader posts and hacked a landing to get feedback. What do you think about the product idea itself? Would you try it for a week and, if it helped, consider paying for it? Please roast the idea. Is this cringe, or does it have a real audience? If you have a minute, I’d love blunt feedback: - In 5 seconds, does the hero make sense? - Is the CTA “Get rid of tilt” helpful or try-hard? - Which guardrail would actually stop you on a bad day: DDL cap, max-trade cap, enforced cooldowns, or a pre-trade checklist? - What is missing to trust it enough for a 7-day test? Do not judge the layout or styling. I put the page together in a couple of hours to package the idea and ask for feedback. No signals. Not financial advice. Text here or DM please if you have some thoughts!

kirillmaster

Hi everyone! Sorry to jump into an off-topic thread, but could you please help me validate this idea? I caught myself doing the classic tilt and FOMO after the last “whole market was a scam” day, and it gave me an idea: an AI agent for ludo tendencies in trading. It is a personal journal plus simple practices for people like me (lol). Product Landing: https://ai-trading-discipline.replit.app/ I pulled together a quick pain map from trader posts and hacked a landing to get feedback. What do you think about the product idea itself? Would you try it for a week and, if it helped, consider paying for it? Please roast the idea. Is this cringe, or does it have a real audience? If you have a minute, I’d love blunt feedback: - In 5 seconds, does the hero make sense? - Is the CTA “Get rid of tilt” helpful or try-hard? - Which guardrail would actually stop you on a bad day: DDL cap, max-trade cap, enforced cooldowns, or a pre-trade checklist? - What is missing to trust it enough for a 7-day test? Do not judge the layout or styling. I put the page together in a couple of hours to package the idea and ask for feedback. No signals. Not financial advice. Text here or DM please if you have some thoughts!

kirillmaster

Hi everyone! Sorry to jump into an off-topic thread, but could you please help me validate this idea? I caught myself doing the classic tilt and FOMO after the last “whole market was a scam” day, and it gave me an idea: an AI agent for ludo tendencies in trading. It is a personal journal plus simple practices for people like me (lol). Product Landing: https://ai-trading-discipline.replit.app/ I pulled together a quick pain map from trader posts and hacked a landing to get feedback. What do you think about the product idea itself? Would you try it for a week and, if it helped, consider paying for it? Please roast the idea. Is this cringe, or does it have a real audience? If you have a minute, I’d love blunt feedback: - In 5 seconds, does the hero make sense? - Is the CTA “Get rid of tilt” helpful or try-hard? - Which guardrail would actually stop you on a bad day: DDL cap, max-trade cap, enforced cooldowns, or a pre-trade checklist? - What is missing to trust it enough for a 7-day test? Do not judge the layout or styling. I put the page together in a couple of hours to package the idea and ask for feedback. No signals. Not financial advice. Text here or DM please if you have some thoughts!

LeadershipSecure1664

thats bcs of the retarded money pumping, wait for CTA seller next several weeks

trumpdiego

##If we break $650 CTA's have to sell a yuge amount, would be the correction erection we've been ~~praying~~ fearing for.

PatientBaker7172

I put in $1 for every dip so CTA will have to buy it back for more.

citiclosethrowaway

Cash, Gold, anti-Beta fund like BTAL, maybe managed futures like KMLM or CTA

Fishherr

Well I’ll say this. The DJI is going into the top of its regression band it’s been in on the monthly chart. Mysteriously, every time it’s done this the market dropped somewhat near after. Is this the time it breaks thru? Maybe: maybe not. Now not everyone agrees with this, but BTC has some weird stuff going on. Bitfinex whales are building / twapping in longs heavy, but only when price is declining. They did this on the recent pullback. When they’ve done this, price either drops hard and they keep building long, or 2 they go full risk off before a major pump. But that pump usually results in a correction after or a bear market. When BTC weekly 200 crosses the previous cycle ath, that’s usually marked a top. The VIX has major strikes for 30 in Oct, 60 Nov, & 20 December. Huge open interest. Like $30m+ from single whales per strike. We are also pushing into a massive dealer cluster and gamma zone which might be hard to get through. What’s weird is, the financial and credit sector has been getting slammed recently with major sell offs. I saw whales doing insane massive sells & even doing hugely volume on JPM thru the terminal recently. I feel like something / someone knows something under the surface and not many people are talking about it yet. I do wonder if the Tariff ruling on Oct 14th (if the Supreme Court calls it illegal or not) affects anything. If so, I do think the debt addition & repayment will be catastrophic / shake markets. If selling begins and CTA go full risk off, that’ll make downside pressure.

HaussmannCoyote

**Plain and simple explanation:** a pump-and-dump scheme by scammers. Let me explain: Recently, I was targeted by two ads on Facebook: * The first one featured Aswath Damodaran (a very famous NYU Stern finance professor), speaking directly to the camera and explaining that he had a private investment group achieving great returns, inviting people to join. I clicked to see what it was and was redirected to a WhatsApp number. * The second one featured Jean Boivin (Head of BlackRock Financial Institute), doing the same thing, with a CTA button asking me to share my email/number to get in touch via WhatsApp. The first video and link felt sketchy, the second one even more so. I felt the scam coming, but that’s when I realized both videos were deepfakes. I knew this was a next-gen scam, well orchestrated with AI, so I decided to text the number to see what it was. Since the end of July, I have been in touch with a so-called *investment advisor*, who has been sending me messages about stocks to invest in. I was also added to a WhatsApp group. The stocks they sent me are the following (all NASDAQ-listed): * **SMCI** on July 31 (dropped $15 since) * **MRVL** on August 4 (no big movements since) * **INTC** on August 11 (up $10 since) * **AI (C3.ai, Inc.)** on August 13 (no major movements since) * **NIO** on August 18 (almost 2× since) * **GCT** on September 9 (no major movements since) Then they started talking about an upcoming *“Eagle 6 transaction”* that would supposedly be very big (30–60 day holding period with 180%–260% returns). I told them I would invest big, and that was the signal for the real scam. Since then, they’ve been asking me to provide screenshots of my losses so they could “compensate” me. I never invested a single dollar in any of the stocks they sent me—I was just curious to see where this was going. But wow… the level of sophistication and planning required to orchestrate such a scam is terrifying. It’s very bad for the stock market that things like this can happen unnoticed and without consequences for the scammers. I hope the relevant authorities step in and prevent these schemes, because from what I’ve read on other threads, some people have lost a lot.

HaussmannCoyote

**Plain and simple explanation:** a pump-and-dump scheme by scammers. Let me explain: Recently, I was targeted by two ads on Facebook: * The first one featured Aswath Damodaran (a very famous NYU Stern finance professor), speaking directly to the camera and explaining that he had a private investment group achieving great returns, inviting people to join. I clicked to see what it was and was redirected to a WhatsApp number. * The second one featured Jean Boivin (Head of BlackRock Financial Institute), doing the same thing, with a CTA button asking me to share my email/number to get in touch via WhatsApp. The first video and link felt sketchy, the second one even more so. I felt the scam coming, but that’s when I realized both videos were deepfakes. I knew this was a next-gen scam, well orchestrated with AI, so I decided to text the number to see what it was. Since the end of July, I have been in touch with a so-called *investment advisor*, who has been sending me messages about stocks to invest in. I was also added to a WhatsApp group. The stocks they sent me are the following (all NASDAQ-listed): * **SMCI** on July 31 (dropped $15 since) * **MRVL** on August 4 (no big movements since) * **INTC** on August 11 (up $10 since) * **AI (C3.ai, Inc.)** on August 13 (no major movements since) * **NIO** on August 18 (almost 2× since) * **GCT** on September 9 (no major movements since) Then they started talking about an upcoming *“Eagle 6 transaction”* that would supposedly be very big (30–60 day holding period with 180%–260% returns). I told them I would invest big, and that was the signal for the real scam. Since then, they’ve been asking me to provide screenshots of my losses so they could “compensate” me. I never invested a single dollar in any of the stocks they sent me—I was just curious to see where this was going. But wow… the level of sophistication and planning required to orchestrate such a scam is terrifying. It’s very bad for the stock market that things like this can happen unnoticed and without consequences for the scammers. I hope the relevant authorities step in and prevent these schemes, because from what I’ve read on other threads, some people have lost a lot.

LarryStink

The CTA unwind from 100 percentile max long will exacerbate this down move. Couple that with volatility sellers covering and we are setting up a mini April like selloff. My original target was around -5% but given the other macro circumstances unfolding we could very well see up to -10% before earnings season starts.

TiredElephant_c

https://preview.redd.it/kkanpyhoubqf1.jpeg?width=1500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a79fc867c4fa9c0acb816f2364ed56cc73cbe866 QQQ CTA positioning

TiredElephant_c

https://preview.redd.it/bkl67isaubqf1.jpeg?width=1500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5dad06d454ddff22e6aa00f0c086097c1ab58c17 Gold CTA positioning

TiredElephant_c

@ /u/plugsnet I’ll come back with mkre charts and more of a write up later but it’s really just an educated guess and an assessment of the risk reward here, the time on the contracts, how long it’s been since April, the labour market, an expensive and concentrated tech sector, some risks not quite having been priced in on rate cut optimism, an assessment of the switching of the American economy from manufacturing dominated to services dominated during a transition period. Arguably somewhat betting on the adoption of AI being rockier and more turbulent and less immediate ROIC than we might like to believe. Institutions and CTA’s are pretty crowded into tech for good reason and aggressively long it. So is retail. I also do like that the volume point of control from the april lows has shifted to the top 3rd of price action since april around the 570 level. https://preview.redd.it/50ki8ed7z5qf1.jpeg?width=1500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=48cfb9615339052503a5b50978615e97ea041bd2 I will come back later with more data.

Visible-Mastodon-277

i bought CTA as a hedge and it keeps going up, help

ExNihil013

I did the same. Was down 60% and stomached it for weeks and got out when I broke even. CTA but ffs I'm tired of of missing boats

Fun-Sundae4060

My personal allocation is - TQQQ 55% - UGL (gold 2x) 15% - EDV (bonds) 15% - CTA/KMLM (managed futures) 15% TQQQ, gold, managed futures, bonds strategy with 200SMA switch Results with dotcom bubble and 2008 GFC: Strategy: https://testfol.io/tactical?s=93v4T1s6yXo Standard ETFs: https://testfol.io/?s=9giBG7lgiNi

smitra00

CTA positioning points to a large dump: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ygBpEQPuH0&t=98s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ygBpEQPuH0&t=98s)

Fun-Sundae4060

TQQQ and QLD UPRO and SSO ZROZ, EDV GLD and lower ER variants CTA, KMLM, and DBMF

Fun-Sundae4060

Pretty simple, just set up a portfolio allocation based on backtesting and personal risk preference. You just regularly rebalance to the target allocation every week or month. QLD ZROZ GLD and CTA are my recommended funds. I would use at least 60-70% QLD and the rest into the other funds.

AlternativeSignal908

Check out this book. It was written in 2010 and is backed by academic research. The main point is that leverage when you're young may be appropriate and may actually reduce risk since it provides more diversification across time. # Lifecycle Investing: A New, Safe, and Audacious Way to Improve the Performance of Your Retirement Portfolio Ian Ayres and Barry Nalebuff In my experience, nakedly investing in leveraged index ETFs works until it doesn't. That is, you can have tremendous gains, but then give them all back. You need to have some portion of the portfolio that is a hedge and rebalance a couple times a year. Hedges are long treasuries (ZROZ), gold (GLDM) and potentially managed futures (CTA). Play around with different mixes on testfol.io. Really look closely at the 1970s or 2007/8 and consider your total leverage (amount of UPRO or SPUU) in the mix. It isn't going to be hard to run a leveraged portfolio in times like today. But imagine things going down and staying down for five years or longer. That will happen. It's guaranteed over your investing lifespan. Multiple times. Whatever portfolio you run, you need to believe in it strongly enough by doing the work so that you stick with it when the shit hits the fan. Which it will.

Maleficent-Hold-5466

CTA at 100th percentile long exposure

ConclusionEven6917

Who cares though, if the voting machine is up that must mean this is good news. Nobody actually understands what the data means, they just follow sentiment of the crowd which is actually CTA. So if you think about it, machines are already controlling everything

Married-and-dating

Here's a short list * **Mid‑2025** – Initial human data from PM359 (CGD Phase 1/2) anticipated – May 19, 2025 readout reported: 58% DHR positivity Day 15; 66% by Day 30; clean safety profile [celeritasinsights.com+10investors.primemedicine.com+10Nasdaq+10](https://investors.primemedicine.com/news-releases/news-release-details/prime-medicine-announces-breakthrough-clinical-data-showing/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **July 16, 2025** – Additional up to $24 M funding from CF Foundation for cystic fibrosis programs [investors.primemedicine.com](https://investors.primemedicine.com/news-releases/news-release-details/prime-medicine-announces-additional-funding-24-million-cystic?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **Late 2025** – Expected new preclinical data from CF, Wilson’s Disease, and potentially other pipeline programs (presentations/publications) [investors.primemedicine.com](https://investors.primemedicine.com/news-releases/news-release-details/prime-medicine-highlight-new-preclinical-data-including-vivo/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)[BioSpace](https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/prime-medicine-reports-third-quarter-2024-financial-results-and-provides-business-updates?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **H1 2026** – Planned IND or CTA filing for Wilson’s Disease (PM577) and AATD program [Nasdaq+7investors.primemedicine.com+7Nasdaq+7](https://investors.primemedicine.com/news-releases/news-release-details/prime-medicine-reports-first-quarter-2025-financial-results-and/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **2026** – Initiation of clinical trials for Wilson’s Disease & AATD; potential shift of CGD to pivotal study phase [investors.primemedicine.com](https://investors.primemedicine.com/news-releases/news-release-details/prime-medicine-reports-first-quarter-2025-financial-results-and/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)[Nasdaq](https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/prime-medicine-announces-strategic-restructuring-focus-opportunities-large-genetic?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **2027** – First clinical data expected from Wilson’s Disease and AATD trials; follow‑on data anticipated from BMS CAR‑T collaboration and CF programs Here's their corporate slide deck: [https://investors.primemedicine.com/static-files/a44c9990-f654-4c55-8e68-f034c9daa691](https://investors.primemedicine.com/static-files/a44c9990-f654-4c55-8e68-f034c9daa691) This is a revolutionary company that is literally on the verge of revolutionizing medicine... just kinda shocking when it was $1 a few months ago nobody was talking about it. I think it's still a steal. Bought another 10k today

TheLoneComic

Also there’s the Top Traders Unplugged podcast - usually CTA level interviews with the guys who write books like The Second Leg Down.

Fun-Sundae4060

Risk-on: 33% TQQQ for 99% equity 33% BTC 12% UGL for 24% gold 12% KMLM and CTA 10% ZROZ Risk-off (under 200SMA of QQQ): 25% QQQ 25% UGL 25% CTA and KMLM 25% ZROZ

Rude-Walk-6577

बिलकुल! नीचे मैं आपके लिए कम शब्दों में, एकदम सीधा और आकर्षक डुअल-लैंग्वेज़ ओपनिंग पैराग्राफ तैयार कर रहा हूँ — ताकि पढ़ने वाला रुक जाए और पूरा लेख पढ़ना चाहे। --- 🔰 ब्लॉग की शुरुआत (Dual-language, Hook Format, Compact Version) 💬 Hindi: कम वेतन का मतलब यह नहीं कि आप आर्थिक रूप से स्वतंत्र नहीं बन सकते। सही योजना, थोड़ी बचत और थोड़ी समझदारी से — आप भी वो मुकाम हासिल कर सकते हैं जो अब तक सिर्फ बड़े अमीरों का सपना लगता था। English: A low salary doesn’t mean you can’t be financially free. With smart planning, small savings, and consistent action — you can achieve a life of stability, freedom, and control over your money. 👇 इस लेख में जानिए 5 आसान लेकिन असरदार स्टेप्स जो सीमित आय में भी आत्मनिर्भरता की नींव रख सकते हैं। --- अगर आप चाहें तो मैं इसके नीचे वाला CTA सेक्शन भी बना सकता हूँ जैसे: > "Start now. Choose your first step below 👇" https://zindagiaurpaisa1.blogspot.com/2025/07/1.html बताइए, इसे भी जोड़ना है या नहीं?

Fun-Sundae4060

Are you willing to go more aggressive than VTI/VXUS? I am 26 and allocate my portfolio to follow a 200SMA TQQQ strategy with hedges. Above 200SMA of QQQ it looks like 33% TQQQ, 33% BTC, 12% CTA and KMLM, 12% UGL, and 10% ZROZ. Below 200SMA, it becomes 25% QQQ, 25% UGL, 25% CTA and KMLM, and 25% ZROZ. There is more volatility than 100% VOO, but similar max drawdown and far higher risk-adjusted-return.

Fun-Sundae4060

Have you tried just hedging it? I just follow the TQQQ 200SMA hedged strategy. 33% TQQQ 33% BTC 12% CTA 12% UGL 10% ZROZ Check for monthly close below or above 200SMA to begin any trade to risk-off. Rebalance monthly. Risk off portfolio: 25% QQQ 25% CTA 25% UGL 25% ZROZ

Ok_GAINZ

CTA's feeding the machine

Ok_GAINZ

CTA's are going to have to buy in without a pullback at this point.

Fun-Sundae4060

If you pull out BTC and CTA the backtest goes to 1995 I believe. It’s coupled with a 200SMA strategy that allows it to survive prolonged drawdowns by switching to QQQ and no BTC with all the same hedges. Largest drawdown is actually smaller than 100% VOO in 2008.

GAV17

> DBMFSIM/DBMFX: SG CTA Index (2000-2019) + 2.5% p.a. - 0.85% p.a., DBMF (2019-present) > DBMF is not bound to any index, but tries to replicate the gross return of large CTA hedge funds. The SG CTA Index reflects the net return of 20 large CTA hedge funds open to new investment. Thus, although they likely have similar return profiles, DBMFSIM performance before 2019 should not be taken as a one-to-one replication of how DBMF would have performed back then. [Should use this image.](https://www.google.com/search?q=survivorship+bias&oq=survivorship+bias&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCDU2MzBqMGo0qAICsAIB&client=ms-android-samsung-ss&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8#vhid=Wdd5gVwx1EipLM&vssid=_0qR9aIuyHIDT1sQPy6LO-Q4_45)

Fun-Sundae4060

DBMF, KMLM, and CTA are the most popular diversifiers. Add SIM to the end of DBMF or KMLM to extend the range of the backtesting dates. CTA has only limited historical data.

Fun-Sundae4060

I’m pretty leveraged compared to other people on here. Having just 1 asset class is not efficient if you just go ahead and test it with something with 2-3 assets. You’ll find the Sharpe will be much lower for a single asset class and sometimes even underperform the ones that are not 100% equities. 32% TQQQ for 96% QQQ 32% BTC 13% UGL for 26% gold 13% CTA 10% ZROZ

Fun-Sundae4060

Gold miners aren’t the same as gold, and MSTR isn’t in the SP500 yet still. Bonds tend to be noncorrelated with equities. Managed futures such as KMLM, DBMF, and CTA are excellent diversifiers. This is all based on backtesting data for my leveraged ETF strategy, not pulled from my butt. People just don’t know it lol.

prana_fish

We've now had a sharp V recovery in equity markets now in July since a close to 20% S&P drop back in April from the tariff panic. However, multiple reputable sources on podcasts and other media who interact with institutions and big clients with big pockets and hedge funds have repeatedly said these cohorts have missed the rally, and it's a hated rally. Don't get it. If institutions (not sure if just US based) didn't buy up the market for such a recovery, who did? Arguments can include systematic hedging flows, CTA trend following, corporate buybacks, short squeezes, and retail (my favorite whipping boy), but it's hard for me to believe these groups/mechanisms had the buying power to move the market like this. If JP Morgan and Goldman missed having their clients participate in the rally, don't understand. These are the shadowy groups who are supposed to move markets, not get flat footed so much by it (this is sarcasm to temper conspiracy theorists)

Fun-Sundae4060

Equities, treasury bonds, gold, and managed futures (optional) You’ll want a diversified bundle of each, so ETFs are your best option. VOO, ZROZ, IAUM, CTA are my suggestions. Perhaps 70% 10% 10% and 10% will be a good allocation for you. You can reduce equity exposure if you want less volatility but this comes at the cost of lower expected return.

Fun-Sundae4060

TQQQ and BTC hedged with CTA, ZROZ, and GLD.

Fun-Sundae4060

SSO, BTC, CTA, GLD, and ZROZ at all ages Decrease SSO and BTC as you get older and increase CTA, GLD, and ZROZ. Up to you how much volatility you want.

greytoc

In extended session, there is no nbbo because the markets aren't inter-linked. The nbbo is disseminated through what's known as SIPs. There primary SIP is from the CTA (Consolidated Tape Association). The CTA is technically an SRO (self-regulatotry organization) that is administered by NYSE. [https://www.ctaplan.com/index](https://www.ctaplan.com/index) I am unfamiliar with how extended session quote data is handled however.

Fun-Sundae4060

IAUM - gold CTA/KMLM/DBMF - managed futures TLT/ZROZ - 20+ year treasury bonds

Fun-Sundae4060

You have an investing account? Learn as much as you can about personal finance, debt, investing, and compounding returns. At your age I would really advocate for a heavily weighted portfolio of equities. Leveraged ETFs if you can stomach it. Something like TQQQ but QQQ if you really don’t want leverage. Hedge with GLD, ZROZ, and CTA. Those are precious metals (gold), long term US treasury bonds, and managed futures respectively. They serve to hedge your main position of equities and provide dry powder when equities are down.

Fun-Sundae4060

r/LETFs spilling over to r/investing 🤣 My exact strategy but I implement GLD, BTC, and CTA even in the full leverage portfolio.

TemptingChocolate

what's a CTA?

Fun-Sundae4060

Bonds are honestly kinda hot garbage right now but at retirement age I think you’ll want to look for minimum volatility not returns. Here is a very conservative portfolio example aiming for minimal volatility: 40% VOO 20% GLD 20% TLT 20% CTA

trumpdiego

##lol CTA's have to sell tech to cover oil shorts, this is glorious on both ends

AcceptableValuable40

The only reason why are up this high is because of the major volatility shorting that came in on the tariff pause bounce. The incentive now is changing, and we might have seen it actually flip today, into being long volatility for the next 30-60 days. These past two weeks have seen the highest net buying from retail in I think a year, top signal. CTA's will be selling agressively on any pullback below 6000 on ES. Long ITM or ATM puts for July-August are a profitable play here.

Fun-Sundae4060

I personally allocated TQQQ, BTC, CTA, and IAUM for my baby. TQQQ and BTC for capital appreciation and CTA and IAUM to hedge.

Fun-Sundae4060

Any portfolio without leverage or leveraged ETFs is not aggressive. 100% VOO or QQQ is inefficient and dumb, take 60% QLD or SSO with 40% CTA for example. 120% stock exposure with 40% hedge for better CAGR and less volatility at the same time.

notapersonaltrainer

> the ETF implementations (CTA/DBMF) are terrible ways to access this return profile, mostly due to limitations around leverage, assets held, and the 40act regs. CTA has outperformed 60/40 since inception with low correlation, which is pretty good for an alternatives holding. How much leverage and how many holdings do you need? As you go down into the more obscure commodity futures you start to add illiquidity issues without much alpha compensation.

HobbitFeet_23

I hold DBMF, KMLM and CTA. CTA seems to be the best one in terms of design for (expected) absolute returns as it uses several strategies, so it’s diversified not only in its holdings but also the kind of factors it uses (trend following, carry, relative value and risk off). I encourage you to watch the CTA deep dive videos, where they explain their strategies. The problem is that even if it has a submanager (Altis Partners), it’s a Simplify ETF, and Simplify has a history of blowing up their ETFs. If it had any other issuer, I’d be tempted to have it as my main managed futures fund.

EmuFit1895

OK, thanks, but CTA went up 23.1% in the past 36 months, which was mostly a bull market, so what do you mean by that? Thanks.

EmuFit1895

Thanks HobbitFeet. Does your endorsement of MF's extend to MF ETF's like CTA?

this_guy_fks

[https://wholesale.banking.societegenerale.com/fileadmin/indices\_feeds/ti\_screen/index.html](https://wholesale.banking.societegenerale.com/fileadmin/indices_feeds/ti_screen/index.html) since inception CTA index +167%, Trend Only Index +238% with no correlation to the spxt. im not sure what "literature" you're referring to, but its pretty plainly incorrect. CTAs/Managed Futures are a great diversifer to a portfolio of long only equities, but adds no value to retail traders, the ETF implementations (CTA/DBMF) are terrible ways to access this return profile, mostly due to limitations around leverage, assets held, and the 40act regs. you would need to open a managed account of access CTAs through a banks channels (DB Select for example) and no retail investor has the capital allocation to support it (otherwise instead of paying 1/15 youd go to your private bank wealth manager and buy a CTA tracker QIS index)

Fun-Sundae4060

My personal allocation for my baby is 40% TQQQ, 40% BTC, 10% IAUM, and 10% CTA. 120% equities, 40% Bitcoin, 10% gold, 10% managed futures. Very aggressive yet low beta strategy with 4 asset classes. Rebalanced quarterly

Fun-Sundae4060

QLD or SSO with some gold, bitcoin, and managed futures like CTA. rebalance quarterly/monthly

SlfImpr

[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-27/nvda-markets-have-about-7-trillion-in-firepower-into-nvidia-earnings](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-27/nvda-markets-have-about-7-trillion-in-firepower-into-nvidia-earnings) >**Investors With $7 Trillion in Cash on the Sidelines Await Nvidia** >(Bloomberg) -- An upbeat earnings report by Nvidia Corp. would bode well for a rally in US equities as investors have about $7 trillion parked in cash funds, according to BBVA strategists. Institutional positioning in the US technology sector is “undemanding” with hedge funds and mutual funds still substantially underweight, strategist Michalis Onisiforou said. Exposure of trend-following Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) to the broader stock market is also neutral, while volatility control funds have plenty of room to add to risk, he said. “With the institutional length in equities far from exuberance levels,” Onisiforou said the setup favors higher exposure to stocks.

Fun-Sundae4060

Yes you can set up regular deposit intervals or just manually ACH funds when you want to. Rebalancing requires you to just click a button and they’ll do it for you at the next trading window (which is unique to M1). They only trade at market open and 1 hour before market close. CTA is a managed futures ETF so you just buy it like any other ETF.

devllen05

So you let the platform robotically buy and rebalance when it thinks the time is right? Another dumb one: how would I buy CTA managed futures in this scheme? The rest seem like easy buckets to allocate.

Fun-Sundae4060

If you’re able to stay unemotional while investing, pull out of the fund to save yourself the 1% fee which is huge. Standard investing practice is to be well diversified. Majority VOO for equity exposure, some IAUM for gold exposure to hedge against downturns, CTA managed futures as a hedge, and BTC/IBIT for crypto exposure and diversification. You can set your own allocations but personally I would do 60/10/10/20.

95Daphne

Yeah, I'd give retail a bit more credit than folks maybe want to give here. I don't think it's been retail "only", but with PLTR being where it is, I think it's a large share. I think the more complicated story is that CTA/specialty funds have been forced to join in, which has been fuel, and in spite of this, what is worth noting though is you started to see 2027 tech calls being bought last month, and a large long term IWM put buy. Suggests the show is going to continue for the Nasdaq, while small caps keep on disappointing, which has been the story outside of post-COVID from 2018.

BirdyPooPoo

Zerohedge panic deleting their tweets for the open: “here comes retail” and “CTA’s are net buyers for all scenarios”.

95Daphne

While I wouldn’t say it’s the only part of the story, it’s a lot more of it than many want to admit considering that a retail favorite in PLTR is at an ATH. The only thing in which you can argue is that the intraday “pause” the week after the stupid poster was unveiled put big shorts in a body bag. But most of this is retail, with specialty type funds helping. Big long only that isn’t rules based (CTA and vol based) is still out, I believe.

MaxDragonMan

>Professional fund managers who spent the last month positioning themselves for further market losses after Liberation Day were completely blindsided by Monday’s China/US deal. But while the “smart money” was [caught offside](https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Flinks.morningbrew.com%2Fc%2Fzg5%3Fmblid%3De1302152169c%26mbcid%3D39889694.21436%26mid%3Dd5087b2dd6f78bdcaf9d8995b66873e8%26mbuuid%3DvumHt4fNmk5Gh9PoNLBb7YK3&data=05%7C02%7C%7C47b0c4330c504485e8f408dd93ed7e8b%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638829370427100992%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=odLfjisrMfrJDsqrk4lsg%2Fp7cH7Ll7HDqxr%2FuWwdMe4%3D&reserved=0) and left holding the bag, retail investors have been buying the dip—and now they’re reaping the rewards. >“Private clients have been buyers for 22 weeks straight (longest buying streak in our data history since '08),” Bank of America Equity Strategist Jill Carey Hall wrote earlier this week. “Last week they bought stocks in all sectors as well as ETFs (8th largest equity inflows in our data history).” >“In our view, retail traders were one of the main drivers of the market rally in the last week of April, amid subdued institutional activity and low CTA positioning,” concurred JPMorgan Chase Strategist Emma Wu in a note today. From today's Brew Markets. Matches some comments from a couple weeks ago about seeing the largest singular day of inflows from retail ever.

Tonyfrose71

0.02 A+0.0003 (+2.00%) 7:59 PM EDT | Last NYSE Arca, VOL From CTA | USD 0.015 A+0.0014 (+10.2941%)

SethEllis

Stock buybacks are on deck, and the CTA community is set to be buyers of equities in almost all scenarios. Many institutional investors remain short, and this just provides further fuel to the fire. The biggest flows in the market are all more likely to buy over the near term. So things look pretty good for equities here. Now a CPI report could certainly mix things up, but that's fairly unlikely. Consumers really aren't seeing the impact of tariffs yet. The consensus month over month expectation is 0.3%. Even if we were to get a 0.4% number I'm not convinced that would be enough of a game changer to turn the market around.

Emergency_Series_787

This post lacks an understanding of how market works. No idea of who the players are and what their motives are. For example CTA’s role etc. it simply assumes that all funds take money from retail which is funny.

jnas_19

**CTA WARNS: CONSOLE PRICES COULD JUMP 70% IF TRUMP'S TARIFFS APPLY.** Smartphones and laptops may rise \~30% under proposed 25% tariffs, per new modeling. Its so over for gaming bros, Nintendo introduces 80 dollar games and raises prices on accessories, Sony and Xbox increases prices on subscription, games and consoles. Most PC parts increased and gpus being scalped by both scalpers AND retailers/manufacturers. Gaming is going to become a luxury at this rate, I'm just glad I got my 5080 and ps5 before it happens.

DurdenTyler2020

Look into dedicating a sliver of your portfolio to Trend (KMLM, CTA, DBMF, etc.).

Short-Taro-5156

Gold is up over 67% since late 2024 and has doubled since mid 2022. Nothing about buying into gold after a 67% rise in a matter of months is a 'given.' It may end up working out, but at this point I'd argue that the catalyst to drive gold higher is mostly behind us. Trend/momentum following CTA strats/momentum funds/panicked investors will have already bought into gold by now.

trumpdiego

##Stock buybacks, behind the eight ball CTA's, Tech Earnings, Tax Cut teasers, and a new source of labor that's pretty much equivalent on deck. And for those reasons we will never be red again. China had no idea they were dealing with pure retard strength.

Exodia4life

Why would you short there? CTA here, its clearly a downward donger [technical analysis ](https://imgur.com/a/S9t0bT4)

shits4noreason

Commodity Trading Advisors is what it stands for. When I say CTA I just mean shops that run systematic algos.

shits4noreason

Institutional investors and CTA usually have algos that they use which run throughout the day based on a certain rule. Hence might be getting filled in small amounts in AH because that is usually the only volume available and they run VWAP or TWAP algos.

GoJa_official

150 P/E growth tech stock that just dropped 30% EPS YoY w a 10% drop in revenue. If being bearish on this stock is stupid I don't want to be smart. Find me the CTA willing to bid here and I'll show you someone who has failed upwards their entire career.

AlleyKatPr0

# “elevated bearish option positioning → hedging flows → upward price surprise”. Yup, that is sound logic. The two-day pop was flow-driven: an IV crush plus a negative-gamma dealer unwind and short covering. Those are mechanical and self-limiting; once option dealers are flat and shorts are smaller, that bid disappears. Whether TSLA keeps climbing, stalls in the $250s, or mean-reverts will depend on second-order flows (fund managers digesting the full 10-Q, tariff headlines, and July delivery numbers). Keep one eye on the gamma map and skew – they will signal when the next asymmetric set-up emerges. The numbers point to several outcomes: Yes—**institutions** ***could*** **start positioning for a second leg up**, but only if new data confirm that: 1. **Cash-flow risk is capped** (10-Q already helped). 2. **The AI/Robotaxi narrative gains** ***tangible*** **milestones** (Austin pilot, AI Day). 3. **Macro/tariff overhang does not worsen.** Under those conditions, several $-billion-per-day buyer classes (trend followers, thematic growth, and some traditional large-cap-growth funds) have a *mechanical* or *mandate-driven* reason to buy. If those boxes go unchecked, the recent bounce remains a **flow-exhaustion rally**, and the incremental bid never turns up to the party for shots. |Scenario (next 8 weeks)|Probability|Price zone|What would get us there| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |Flow-driven grind higher| 45 %| $270–300|CTA\* adds + fundamental nibbling; no tariff shock.| |Range consolidation|30 %|$240–270|Macro choppy; robotaxi demo mixed; buyers and sellers balance.| |Retracement to pre-earnings|25 %| $210–240|Deliveries miss; tariffs increase; AI Day guidance underwhelms.| \*cta. Commodity Trading Advisor.

My_G_Alt

An effective CTA

DoubleSkew

wsb stock index is correlated 1:1 with the CTA trend following index 

GeeBee72

The reason is mechanical: Dealers were short-gamma leading into the call, the dollar-short interest was very large, short volume dusty was >42% which is way above the 30 day average and because of this for any tick upwards the dealers were forced to buy in order to stay neutral. Tomorrow is going to be fireworks! In the morning session, IV crush will take 12-15 volatility points off near-term options, dealers will be pressured to sell as they no longer need long stuck hedges. This move will have its biggest impact 9:30 to 10:30. As this happens negative gamma flips if price drops below $240 which prompts mandatory selling by dealers to maintain neutrality, the faster the price drops the more frantic the selling. CTA / vol targeted funds added beta into the rally during regular trading hours today and will have to cut positions if TSLA underperforms SPX tomorrow. Retail theta wipes out 30-40% of front week calls, people are going to close any spreads and sell stock as it declines. The pace of premarket and the first 60 to 90 minutes of the regular session will indicate the slope of price decay, the steeper the slope the more panic, and the more panic the greater the artificial sell pressure which feeds back and creates high pressure selling waves. Most likely we’ll see it end the session around $225, but if that first 60-90 minute slope is steep enough, it can easily hit $215 EOD.

Successful_Pin2521

Do you need to enable this? For me the CTA reads “Trading unavailable” when the market is closed

glincoln711

Yes. If you're older, roughly - 20% global stocks (an all in 1 fund or 1/3 each US, developed international, emerging markets) 30% bonds 20% gold 30% trend following funds These are rounded from a risk parity estimate. A more robust, diversified All Weather + international approach. It will have about a 7% annualized volatility. With a Sharpe ratio at 0.5-1, say you get an excess return of 5% + 2% risk free rate = 7% overall nominal return in the long run. In a bad downturn (3 or 4 standard deviation event, rare like 2008), take that average, 7% - 4*7% = 7% -28% = roughly 21%. So much safer than a 50% or 60% drawdown if you have all stocks. So, could do: 20% VT 30% IEF 20% GLDM 30% divided evenly between KMLM, DBMF, CTA. If you want to be more aggressive, I'd recommend the Return Stacked suite of ETFs for all in 1 solutions. Good luck out there!

Fun-Sundae4060

Split between IAUM and CTA

dabears4hss

**3. Medium-Term Outlook (Next 1-3 Months: May - July 2025)** * **Fed Policy Center Stage:** FOMC meetings (May 7, June 18) are crucial for tone and the June SEP/dot plot. Hawkish hold expected; deviations significant. Incoming inflation/labor data (key NFP/CPI releases) will shape H2 rate expectations. * **Economic Trajectory Assessment – Gauging the Slowdown's Emergence:** This period is critical for confirming whether the *anticipated* slowdown is materializing. The rationale for expecting slower growth stems from several factors beginning to surface: * **Leading Indicators Flashing Warnings:** The sharp deterioration already seen in forward-looking surveys like the April Philly Fed index (-26.4, lowest since Apr 2023, with weak new orders/employment) and falling CEO confidence provide early warnings. We should monitor if these signals translate into weaker hard data (industrial production, retail sales beyond potential front-loading, business investment) released during this timeframe. * **Initial Tariff Impact:** The tariffs announced in early April will begin filtering through supply chains and business planning cycles *during these months*. Increased input costs, potential margin compression (as highlighted by the divergence between Philly Fed 'Prices Paid' increasing vs. 'Prices Received' lagging), and heightened uncertainty are expected to start weighing on corporate investment decisions and potentially hiring plans. * **Financial Conditions:** While the Fed is on hold, the *delay* in anticipated rate cuts relative to earlier expectations means financial conditions remain tighter for longer, acting as a persistent headwind to growth. * **Trade Negotiation Deadline:** Early July (\~90 days post-pause) is a key deadline for progress on bilateral trade deals, potentially leading to reduced uncertainty (positive) or reimposition/escalation (negative). * **Market Behavior:** Continued range trading is possible if uncertainty reigns. However, confirmation of weakening economic data could accelerate defensive rotations and potentially trigger CTA selling. Conversely, positive trade news or surprisingly resilient data could spark relief rallies. Watch for confirmation of US asset outflow/USD weakness trends. ... it continues

Fun-Sundae4060

I’m invested in 4 asset classes now lol XLV, IAUM, CTA, and VGIT Healthcare sector equities, gold, managed futures, and medium term US treasuries. Basically a bulletproof portfolio. Stock market implodes? Gold and managed futures skyrocket. Gold implodes? Usually means equities are doing well. VGIT just there for the moral support. Everything implodes? Shit I guess my $1000 in ammo will have to last me lol

dabear-baby

No shit... the only things reacting to this are algos that read words, not context..he was pisitive on econamy and even stressed tarrifs would be one time price increase multiple times....fucking CTA's...at least the humans came back fro their martini lunches at the end if the day and hit the stop selling button

AccordingIndustry

In Wall Street, “CTA” most commonly refers to Commodity Trading Advisors, which are investment managers that use quantitative analysis and automated trading systems to profit from trends in financial, commodity, and currency markets. CTAs also play a role in hedge fund and private fund investment advice

falling_knives

What's CTA?

AccordingIndustry

It wasn’t CTA’s I’ll tell ya that

Past-Entertainer335

market volume is not market liqduity, right now the market volume is all time high, but the bid-ask-spread is so wide that almost like a joke. market being pumped without any meaningful improvement on tariffi, all the rallied are classical short-squeece and create further rooms for sharp downside moves favored by CTA community. don't be fooled, acutually any rallies before ACTUAL good news are perfect oppotunities to exist longs and open shorts.

myironlung6

“For the mega bears, there is a lot more room for CTA selling in global markets (ex US, the CTA community is still very long) Over the next 1 week: Flat tape: Sellers $57.62B ($2.69B out the US) Over the next 1 month: Flat tape: Sellers $81.18B ($2.95B out the US)” - GS Flows

Spiritual_Mix7861

CTA selling is like a huge ship that already turned to avoid an iceberg. Any dip buyers will have major institutional selling on the other side of their trades. Over the next 1 week… Flat tape: Sellers $57.62B (only $2.69B out the US) Up tape: Sellers $38.06B (only $0.88B into the US) Down tape: Sellers $68.93B (only $5.30B out the US) Over the next 1 month… Flat tape: Sellers $81.18B ($2.95B out the US) Up tape: Buyers $25.06B ($12.24B into the US) Down tape: Sellers $116.44B ($0.83B out the US