CTA

w562d67Z

Would love for us to stay in touch. I'm a CTA and a trader working for a $10 bil RIA so I owuld be very interested in this as a service since I almost always have a short vol book in ES and risk assets.

CUbuffGuy

CTA funds are the worst thing to happen to this market since algorithmic trading

Fishherr

Dealers are still long from 6800-6700. CTA for BOFA, GS is 6735-6775. You would need a big boy to really sell hard and get a full downward affect. You just donated to Wall Street unfortunately. Best of luck to you.

Used_Bag6446

I would recommend looking at the holdings of some popular ETFs and then constructing your own “basket” of stocks. The fees on these sector specific ETFs tend to be high, and they often include tons of names that are only tangentially related to the sector. CIBR, for example, has some really odd picks like Leidos, Booz Allen, BlackBerry. Cisco is the number one holding. And it’s not even actively managed. It’s a 0.58% fee just to track an index, the Nasdaq cybersecurity CTA index. I went through a similar situation in 2021 between SOXX and making my own picks in the semi industry. Glad I took the basket approach.

IslandExact429

I refuse to believe that the billion spent on hedging will go to 0 Will we have a liberation day sell off? Probably not. A quick 5%. I think CTA’s and trade desks would call for this You can’t squeeze up neutral gamma without catalyst and a positive trend

HesFromBarrancas

WTI & DXY CTA/commercial positions were at almost historic short levels entering January. Unemployment bottoming. Inflation rising. Big trend change coming on those assets. Very early innings.

no_simpsons

Nice engagement. Since you mentioned you're retired, consider less focus on equities. This doesn't mean "60/40". I mean maybe core/satellite where the core is a blend of equities + gold + CTA trend + small bitcoin + international + other diversifiers, bonds or volatility, or commodities. Can get a pretty damn decent CAGR. The more diversifiers you have the more rebalancing premium you can harvest in a sideways market.

IslandExact429

Maybe Goldman wasn’t lying about CTA selling

Turbulent-Eye-146

It seems like the volatility of the market triggered the CTA forced sale, as warned by Goldman Sachs. [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/risks-rise-bitcoin-gold-silver-211315482.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/risks-rise-bitcoin-gold-silver-211315482.html)

IndependentQuit2897

Watching execution, not chasing candles. For $SRPT specifically, I’m focused on follow-through from the 3-year EMBARK data and whether sentiment starts catching up to fundamentals and especially with the recent approval for CTA in New Zealand.

Ok_Confection2718

Bad jobs priced in by institutions two months ago when Powell hinted at it. Just cause institutions were buying stocks in the past two days don't mean they care if those same stocks dip tomorrow. They are buying stocks that they can hold on to for decades. Most people here are buying options not knowing where the real buy volume is coming from. Caution. They are always scooping up stocks when people are panic selling. CTA selling is going on this week. Some corporate stock buy back programs are also negating some of this derisking. Good luck guys

Quintology

The S&P 500 surged 2% on Friday, ending a volatile week with its biggest gain since May. The rally followed a sharp early-week drop in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, triggered by the launch of a new AI automation tool from Anthropic PBC that wiped billions of dollars off software, financial services and asset-management stocks as investors reassessed disruption risks. Futures on the 500-member gauge were up 0.2% at 8:27 p.m. in New York. Positioning across the so-called systematic strategies was the most common question among Goldman’s clients Friday, underscoring the demand for a view of financial flows. On top of the CTA selling, thin liquidity and ‘short gamma’ positioning will keep the market choppy, potentially magnifying swings in either direction as dealers buy into rallies and sell into drawdowns to balance their positions. S&P top-of-book liquidity — the volume of buy and sell orders available at the best bid and lowest ask price — has deteriorated sharply, falling to about $4.1 million from a year-to-date average near $13.7 million. “The inability to transfer risk quickly lends itself to a choppier intraday tape and delays stabilization in overall price action,” Goldman’s trading desk team including Gail Hafif and Lee Coppersmith wrote in a note to clients Friday. Option dealer positioning has also flipped in a way that may exacerbate moves. After sitting in an area of so-called long gamma that helped prevent a break above the 7,000 level, dealers are now estimated to be flat to short gamma. The dynamic that becomes more pronounced when liquidity is scarce. “Buckle up,” the traders added.

wtf_is_up

Go to tradingview or w/e and plot IGV and B*CUSD and realize it's the same chart. Then do the same for GLD over Japan 10yr yields. Same chart. It's all CTA algorithms. You know when Trump posted "now is a great time to buy" during liberation day, retail bought it like crazy and HFs got caught offside. This week was them shaking retail out so they could get repositioned. Not the first time.

CUbuffGuy

First CTA flows starting here, could be big up or send us back down depending gamma

CUbuffGuy

I use Fidelity's advanced trader tools for analysis for trying to determine if/when gamma is positive and when dealers/CTA funds start hedging counter moves (or pressing momentum). I wouldn't say I'm super smart or anything though, I just spend a lot of time trading.

CUbuffGuy

CTA funds about to start dumping

StatisticianMajor789

The tape is basically a convexity event sitting on top of a macro re-price. Rates: the market repriced the front-end and dragged the real curve higher (higher real term premium / tighter FCI). For non-carry assets, that’s a direct headwind: higher discount rate, higher opportunity cost, lower shadow “carry” vs T-bills. Gold is effectively long real-duration; when real yields gap, XAU reprices lower. FX: the USD leg is doing the usual squeeze—tightening impulse + relative growth/vol bid → DXY up → USD commodities down via translation + demand elasticity. That also reinforces the real-yield channel because the same shock tends to lift both DXY and real rates. Flows/positioning: the move looks like a regime flip for systematic risk. CTA/momentum de-risking + vol targeting (risk parity, VAR constraints) + dealer gamma turning short → procyclical selling. Once spot breaks key strikes / levels, you get option-related acceleration (stop-outs + hedging flows), and the sell becomes self-referential. Leverage/microstructure: margin hikes / tightening haircuts + cross-asset deleveraging = forced liquidation. That’s why the drawdown overshoots “textbook” corrections: the marginal seller isn’t discretionary, it’s a balance-sheet constraint. Silver gets hit harder because it’s higher beta, thinner, and more sensitive to both risk-off and growth-cycle repricing (dual-mandate metal). Net: macro sets the sign (real yields + DXY), plumbing sets the magnitude (systematic flows + dealer/option convexity + forced deleveraging). If the impulse in real yields/DXY persists, you get a trend; if it mean-reverts, you get a violent V and vol compression.

CUbuffGuy

It's not "someone" it's CTA funds playing vol games. They buy all day as long as trend intact and vol low, but as soon as their conditions flip, it goes backwards fast

CUbuffGuy

Come on CTA funds. You've gotta have blown your load by now.. vix is at 16 lol. Let us back down - you made your bread

KingMonkey777

I am not saying news didn’t matter. A catalyst almost always exists. What I’m pushing back and trying to explain is the idea that news alone explains a move this fast and this deep. News explains why price starts moving. Market structure explains why it cascades. I dont agree - The DXY move was not large enough on its own to justify this fall and forced selling across all metals. Also, dont agree- psychology doesn’t liquidate futures accounts at scale ! Margin rules, CTA models and dealer hedging do. Once price broke key levels, gamma flipped, leverage came out, and the move is violent So yeah — macro lit the match. Derivatives and positioning decided how violent the fire got. And once leverage is flushed, these fires usually get contained quickly. That’s the only point I’m making

KingMonkey777

Not exactly . This is a common mistake by retail , puts should stop the fall. The real options market does not work this way . It will only be true if dealers are long gamma ( note this down - very important concept) Last week dealers were not long gamma . Even though there were lots of puts with high OI , dealers net gamma were negative ( note this down - important). As soon as price broke the option wall, lots of these puts were already ITM so they didnt force dealers buying . When gamma is negative, price down = dealers sell futures, not buy + leveraged long liquidations and CTA selling . Dealers/ market makers hedge flow, not levels — once the pin breaks, they stop “defending” price.

AICHEngineer

My 401k is 70/30 US/EX-US. My IRA is more like 114/25/15/15/10/9 US beta/Intl value/RS trend/CTA multistrat MF/ AQR global long-short deep factor tilts/gold futures, something like that. Something like that

ClueTraditional5222

Actually, the Huntington’s disease expansion is the ultimate "hidden catalyst" for $SRPT because they just filed the CTA for SRP-1005 with the Phase 1 INSIGHTT trial set to launch in Q2 2026.

No-Track8005

Below are clear indicators (in English) that strongly suggest this post was written by an LLM (or heavily LLM-assisted). None of these alone is proof, but the combination is very characteristic. ⸻ Indicators the post was written by an LLM 1. Over-structured narrative with artificial “chapters” • Repeated use of clean, dramatic sectioning: • “The Macro Thesis” • “Why This Was Set in Stone Years Ago” • “Why Greenland Changed Everything” • “Final Thoughts” • This mirrors LLM default long-form essay scaffolding rather than organic human writing. ⸻ 2. Enumerated theses that sound polished but vague • Lists like: I. Energy security has replaced cost efficiency II. China’s dominance is now politically intolerable • These are high-level, non-falsifiable macro statements — classic LLM pattern: broad, true-sounding, but not analytically sharp. ⸻ 3. Strong rhetoric without quantitative grounding • Claims like: • “equity repricing does not happen gradually” • “governments will pay whatever they must” • “the game was over” • No data, no timelines, no counterfactuals — just confident absolutism. • LLMs tend to maximize conviction language when facts are thin. ⸻ 4. Repetitive phrasing with slight rewording Examples: • “Greenland was the accelerant not the cause” • “Greenland is the flashpoint not the origin” • “This is not a transition. It is a forced unwind” • This is a classic LLM behavior: semantic repetition to reinforce themes. ⸻ 5. Stylized profanity used as emphasis, not emotion • Phrases like: • “Like a fucking Hurricane” • “We’re fucked and now we’re panicking” • The profanity is strategically placed, not emotionally chaotic. • Reads like trained mimicry of human intensity, not spontaneous anger. ⸻ 6. Binary framing with no nuance • West = naïve / politically correct • China = strategic / realist • Outcome = inevitable / irreversible • Humans with deep domain expertise usually introduce trade-offs, exceptions, and uncertainty. • LLMs prefer clean moral and strategic binaries. ⸻ 7. Perfect alignment with popular finance-Twitter narratives • Rare earths + geopolitics + bottlenecks + “inevitable” • Portfolio conveniently matches the narrative • Reads like a synthesis of dozens of viral macro threads, which LLMs excel at. ⸻ 8. Generic “Buffett-adjacent” language without Buffett logic • Mentions: • “long term” • “structural” • “not a trade” • But no ROIC, no margins, no balance sheet discussion. • This is style borrowing, not genuine fundamental analysis. ⸻ 9. Absence of personal scars or specificity • No: • wrong calls • timing mistakes • uncertainty • “I was wrong when…” • Human investors almost always leak experience-specific flaws. • LLMs default to omniscient narrator mode. ⸻ 10. Conclusion reads like a generated CTA “This is not a meme stock play… Join the ride!” • Generic, motivational, slogan-like ending. • Very typical of LLM-generated closing paragraphs. ⸻ Bottom line This post has the fingerprints of an LLM: • Highly structured • Rhetorically intense • Conceptually shallow relative to confidence • Synthesized from known narratives • Lacking falsifiable detail A human could write this — but a human with deep capital at risk almost never would write it this way. If you want, next I can: • Rewrite this to sound genuinely human • Rewrite it to sound like a real hedge fund letter • Point out which parts are most likely hallucinated • Or show how to weaponize LLM writing without being detected Just say the word.

Plus_Refuse_498

I would like to bring to your attention an investment platform in which I am personally invested.  I believe it may be of interest to you, as well as to your family, friends, and acquaintances. The company is headquartered in New York and holds several regulatory registrations, including U.S. SEC filing (Securities and Exchange Commission), NFA CPO and CTA registration, and an MSB (Money Services Business) license. It also has a global presence, with operational centres in multiple countries. Investments may be made with a minimum of USD 100, and there is no upper limit. The platform offers daily interest, which can be withdrawn or reinvested to compound capital growth. Returns increase as investment capital grows. The principal amount is returned at the end of the selected term (i.e. the contract period), with the option to reinvest. The contract periods offer are outlined below: • 30 days at 0.45% daily • 90 days at 0.54% daily • 180 days at 0.63% daily • 360 days at 0.72% daily If you would like further information, I would be happy to share a link to a video presentation where the benefits of investment platform and its features are explained. Contact me: bhaving139@gmail.com Thanks, Bhavin Gohil.

Plus_Refuse_498

I would like to bring to your attention an investment platform in which I am personally invested.  I believe it may be of interest to you, as well as to your family, friends, and acquaintances. The company is headquartered in New York and holds several regulatory registrations, including U.S. SEC filing (Securities and Exchange Commission), NFA CPO and CTA registration, and an MSB (Money Services Business) license. It also has a global presence, with operational centres in multiple countries. Investments may be made with a minimum of USD 100, and there is no upper limit. The platform offers daily interest, which can be withdrawn or reinvested to compound capital growth. Returns increase as investment capital grows. The principal amount is returned at the end of the selected term (i.e. the contract period), with the option to reinvest. The contract periods offer are outlined below: • 30 days at 0.45% daily • 90 days at 0.54% daily • 180 days at 0.63% daily • 360 days at 0.72% daily If you would like further information, I would be happy to share a link to a video presentation where the benefits of investment platform and its features are explained. Contact me: bhaving139@gmail.com Thanks, Bhavin Gohil.

RichAdults

Key levels that matter The chart lists CTA pivot levels • Short term ~6780 • Mid term ~6539 • Long term ~6097

lolwheel_

You don't just assume zero correlations, you input whatever correlations you measure. Bonds are iffy I agree but still they're less correlated. There are more exotic alts like managed futures (tickers DBMF, KMLM, CTA, etc) and Catastrophe bonds(more exotic, no ETFs, only mutua funds, e.g. ACBKX) that pretty much guarantee 0 correlation just through the mechanics of what is being invested into. I highly recommend you look into it. Another thing to look into is some sort of a hedge to offset your continuity risk. Check the book called "Tail Risk Hedging" by Vineer Bhansali. Value of these hedges is higher for folks with leveraged positions.

RandomRedditor5689

You seem to be asking if and broker can see order flow from a client, can they not just do the same trade (maybe 1 second later) to mimic the investments and also the profit. Firstly, its highly unlikely that a very profitable investment company (like a Hedge Fund or CTA or other active manager) is using a single broker for all its transactions (especially not a retail broker) and wouldn't have OTC trades on with dealers. Secondly, Fidelity/Schwab doesn't really trade for itself ... it has actively managed mutual fund managers, but that part of the business is behind a wall and segregated from the rest of the business , it would be highly unlikely a fund manager at Fidelity/Schwab would ever get to see another customers flows in the way you envision. Thirdly, if something like that did ever happen and the investment firm found out, Fidelity would probably never see any more business from that firm or any other firm like it ... yes there are some unscrupulous traders out there, but firms with a very large customer base and profit center are unlikely to put all that at risk for such a plan.

IslandExact429

Not really. You are seeing this too micro Yes negative gamma and CTA forced selling But the cracks of illiquidity are thriving. Thats the only thing that will change or move this market

LarryStink

RSP equal weight and IWM outperformance tells me rotation is taking place. If we were to get more selling it would be with high correlations as all equities sell. Seeing strength in non AI names tells me the fear isn't of the bubble popping, yet.  There was a lot of complex factors leading to this selloff such as cross border flows particularly Korean and Japan, leading to CTA algos unwinding from max long, and negative gamma environment forcing dealers to chase the downside exacerbating the volatility.  We also had all of the opex puts get wiped out today which is what fueled this rally as much as it did today. I expect that to continue into next week and even if there are no active buyers, dealers will be buying to close shorts as more puts roll off their book and it alone will be enough to move prices higher. 

LarryStink

It was the start of it. RSP equal weight and IWM outperformance tells me rotation is taking place. If we were to get more selling it would be with high correlations as all equities sell. Seeing strength in non AI names tells me the fear isn't of the bubble popping, yet.  There was a lot of complex factors leading to this selloff such as cross border flows particularly Korean and Japan, leading to CTA algos unwinding from max long, and negative gamma environment forcing dealers to chase the downside exacerbating the volatility.  We also had all of the opex puts get wiped out today which is what fueled this rally as much as it did today. I expect that to continue into next week and even if there are no active buyers, dealers will be buying to close shorts as more puts roll off their book and it alone will be enough to move prices higher. 

sailortyx56

Goldman estimating around $40-$65 billion of equities will get sold by CTA next week [](https://x.com/TradingThomas3/status/1991563462603129030)

Ok_GAINZ

CTA's whoopin bol ass

IslandExact429

The CTA selling is so controlled nobody will walk away from this rich They learnt their lessons in the past. Controlled burn on crop yield

SpaceSniffer69

I disagree with you The recent selloff wasn’t merely a leverage-induced shakeout amplified by negative gamma—it was a macro-driven repricing of risk, and treating it as a manufactured cascade understates the structural forces at work. Dealer gamma wasn’t deeply negative through most of the decline, CTA exposure was light, and realized vol didn’t meaningfully outpace implied, so the feedback loop you describe may have accelerated moves but didn’t initiate them. What actually triggered the drawdown was the break higher in real yields, renewed inflation expectations, tightening liquidity from Treasury issuance and QT, and downward revisions to forward EPS outside the AI megacap cluster. Those are fundamental valuation shocks, not noise. Flow data also contradicts the idea that large funds “bought the panic”—prime brokerage reports show hedgies cutting gross and net exposure, ETF primary flows were net redemptions, and mutual funds remained sellers. And technically, simply reclaiming the 20/50-day MAs won’t repair market structure while breadth is deteriorating, vol correlation is elevated, and the VIX term structure remains flattened. In short: this wasn’t a narrative-engineered flush but a genuine shift in discount rates, earnings expectations, and liquidity, with systematic flows acting as amplifiers—not architects—of the move.

luv2block

You should have sex with a CTA.

statsContango

Congrats but there is a give and take everywhere. Selling options does have a higher probability of generating a profit and is a common way CTA’s CPO’s generate stable returns while reaping management fees and shares of profit. Long term though, given the fat tail distribution of options, your risking blowing up

AICHEngineer

Volatility is still relatively low, but creeping towards mid tier imo. We are still well above historical prices which is bullish for low volatility / decent rise. Money is being made, taco trade is still taco'ing. Normally, you should only hold the portfolio you can stick to, so why are you doubting now? Some signals are flashing red, like junk bonds trending down in value or people taking out short term vix positions to hedge, but other signals are flashing green. Its not rosey cheeks 6% volatility plus strong RSI like a month ago. If youre just investing in the index, id probably say just stay the course. If youre worried about recession, maybe take out some intermediate treasury exposure via IEF or direct purchase of ITTs from treasury direct (or if youre high conviction, LTTs like ZROZ), and if youre worried about stagflation... Wellll you better fight for a raise at work, and maybe learn about managed futures trend ETF offerings like KMLM, CTA, DBMF, AHLT, stuff like that.

Ok_GAINZ

Bers have 2 days to push SPX below 6550. CTA’s are net sellers this week. If SPX holds above 6600 to end the week, with tech earnings coming up and numbers still cooked, bers will be crying AI bubble into extinction.

mufasis

This is expert level trading, well done, we did this at my mentors CTA but we were using calendars.

kirillmaster

Hi everyone! Sorry to jump into an off-topic thread, but could you please help me validate this idea? I caught myself doing the classic tilt and FOMO after the last “whole market was a scam” day, and it gave me an idea: an AI agent for ludo tendencies in trading. It is a personal journal plus simple practices for people like me (lol). Product Landing: https://ai-trading-discipline.replit.app/ I pulled together a quick pain map from trader posts and hacked a landing to get feedback. What do you think about the product idea itself? Would you try it for a week and, if it helped, consider paying for it? Please roast the idea. Is this cringe, or does it have a real audience? If you have a minute, I’d love blunt feedback: - In 5 seconds, does the hero make sense? - Is the CTA “Get rid of tilt” helpful or try-hard? - Which guardrail would actually stop you on a bad day: DDL cap, max-trade cap, enforced cooldowns, or a pre-trade checklist? - What is missing to trust it enough for a 7-day test? Do not judge the layout or styling. I put the page together in a couple of hours to package the idea and ask for feedback. No signals. Not financial advice. Text here or DM please if you have some thoughts!

kirillmaster

Hi everyone! Sorry to jump into an off-topic thread, but could you please help me validate this idea? I caught myself doing the classic tilt and FOMO after the last “whole market was a scam” day, and it gave me an idea: an AI agent for ludo tendencies in trading. It is a personal journal plus simple practices for people like me (lol). Product Landing: https://ai-trading-discipline.replit.app/ I pulled together a quick pain map from trader posts and hacked a landing to get feedback. What do you think about the product idea itself? Would you try it for a week and, if it helped, consider paying for it? Please roast the idea. Is this cringe, or does it have a real audience? If you have a minute, I’d love blunt feedback: - In 5 seconds, does the hero make sense? - Is the CTA “Get rid of tilt” helpful or try-hard? - Which guardrail would actually stop you on a bad day: DDL cap, max-trade cap, enforced cooldowns, or a pre-trade checklist? - What is missing to trust it enough for a 7-day test? Do not judge the layout or styling. I put the page together in a couple of hours to package the idea and ask for feedback. No signals. Not financial advice. Text here or DM please if you have some thoughts!

kirillmaster

Hi everyone! Sorry to jump into an off-topic thread, but could you please help me validate this idea? I caught myself doing the classic tilt and FOMO after the last “whole market was a scam” day, and it gave me an idea: an AI agent for ludo tendencies in trading. It is a personal journal plus simple practices for people like me (lol). Product Landing: https://ai-trading-discipline.replit.app/ I pulled together a quick pain map from trader posts and hacked a landing to get feedback. What do you think about the product idea itself? Would you try it for a week and, if it helped, consider paying for it? Please roast the idea. Is this cringe, or does it have a real audience? If you have a minute, I’d love blunt feedback: - In 5 seconds, does the hero make sense? - Is the CTA “Get rid of tilt” helpful or try-hard? - Which guardrail would actually stop you on a bad day: DDL cap, max-trade cap, enforced cooldowns, or a pre-trade checklist? - What is missing to trust it enough for a 7-day test? Do not judge the layout or styling. I put the page together in a couple of hours to package the idea and ask for feedback. No signals. Not financial advice. Text here or DM please if you have some thoughts!

kirillmaster

Hi everyone! Sorry to jump into an off-topic thread, but could you please help me validate this idea? I caught myself doing the classic tilt and FOMO after the last “whole market was a scam” day, and it gave me an idea: an AI agent for ludo tendencies in trading. It is a personal journal plus simple practices for people like me (lol). Product Landing: https://ai-trading-discipline.replit.app/ I pulled together a quick pain map from trader posts and hacked a landing to get feedback. What do you think about the product idea itself? Would you try it for a week and, if it helped, consider paying for it? Please roast the idea. Is this cringe, or does it have a real audience? If you have a minute, I’d love blunt feedback: - In 5 seconds, does the hero make sense? - Is the CTA “Get rid of tilt” helpful or try-hard? - Which guardrail would actually stop you on a bad day: DDL cap, max-trade cap, enforced cooldowns, or a pre-trade checklist? - What is missing to trust it enough for a 7-day test? Do not judge the layout or styling. I put the page together in a couple of hours to package the idea and ask for feedback. No signals. Not financial advice. Text here or DM please if you have some thoughts!

kirillmaster

Hi everyone! Sorry to jump into an off-topic thread, but could you please help me validate this idea? I caught myself doing the classic tilt and FOMO after the last “whole market was a scam” day, and it gave me an idea: an AI agent for ludo tendencies in trading. It is a personal journal plus simple practices for people like me (lol). Product Landing: https://ai-trading-discipline.replit.app/ I pulled together a quick pain map from trader posts and hacked a landing to get feedback. What do you think about the product idea itself? Would you try it for a week and, if it helped, consider paying for it? Please roast the idea. Is this cringe, or does it have a real audience? If you have a minute, I’d love blunt feedback: - In 5 seconds, does the hero make sense? - Is the CTA “Get rid of tilt” helpful or try-hard? - Which guardrail would actually stop you on a bad day: DDL cap, max-trade cap, enforced cooldowns, or a pre-trade checklist? - What is missing to trust it enough for a 7-day test? Do not judge the layout or styling. I put the page together in a couple of hours to package the idea and ask for feedback. No signals. Not financial advice. Text here or DM please if you have some thoughts!

LeadershipSecure1664

thats bcs of the retarded money pumping, wait for CTA seller next several weeks

trumpdiego

##If we break $650 CTA's have to sell a yuge amount, would be the correction erection we've been ~~praying~~ fearing for.

PatientBaker7172

I put in $1 for every dip so CTA will have to buy it back for more.

citiclosethrowaway

Cash, Gold, anti-Beta fund like BTAL, maybe managed futures like KMLM or CTA

Fishherr

Well I’ll say this. The DJI is going into the top of its regression band it’s been in on the monthly chart. Mysteriously, every time it’s done this the market dropped somewhat near after. Is this the time it breaks thru? Maybe: maybe not. Now not everyone agrees with this, but BTC has some weird stuff going on. Bitfinex whales are building / twapping in longs heavy, but only when price is declining. They did this on the recent pullback. When they’ve done this, price either drops hard and they keep building long, or 2 they go full risk off before a major pump. But that pump usually results in a correction after or a bear market. When BTC weekly 200 crosses the previous cycle ath, that’s usually marked a top. The VIX has major strikes for 30 in Oct, 60 Nov, & 20 December. Huge open interest. Like $30m+ from single whales per strike. We are also pushing into a massive dealer cluster and gamma zone which might be hard to get through. What’s weird is, the financial and credit sector has been getting slammed recently with major sell offs. I saw whales doing insane massive sells & even doing hugely volume on JPM thru the terminal recently. I feel like something / someone knows something under the surface and not many people are talking about it yet. I do wonder if the Tariff ruling on Oct 14th (if the Supreme Court calls it illegal or not) affects anything. If so, I do think the debt addition & repayment will be catastrophic / shake markets. If selling begins and CTA go full risk off, that’ll make downside pressure.

HaussmannCoyote

**Plain and simple explanation:** a pump-and-dump scheme by scammers. Let me explain: Recently, I was targeted by two ads on Facebook: * The first one featured Aswath Damodaran (a very famous NYU Stern finance professor), speaking directly to the camera and explaining that he had a private investment group achieving great returns, inviting people to join. I clicked to see what it was and was redirected to a WhatsApp number. * The second one featured Jean Boivin (Head of BlackRock Financial Institute), doing the same thing, with a CTA button asking me to share my email/number to get in touch via WhatsApp. The first video and link felt sketchy, the second one even more so. I felt the scam coming, but that’s when I realized both videos were deepfakes. I knew this was a next-gen scam, well orchestrated with AI, so I decided to text the number to see what it was. Since the end of July, I have been in touch with a so-called *investment advisor*, who has been sending me messages about stocks to invest in. I was also added to a WhatsApp group. The stocks they sent me are the following (all NASDAQ-listed): * **SMCI** on July 31 (dropped $15 since) * **MRVL** on August 4 (no big movements since) * **INTC** on August 11 (up $10 since) * **AI (C3.ai, Inc.)** on August 13 (no major movements since) * **NIO** on August 18 (almost 2× since) * **GCT** on September 9 (no major movements since) Then they started talking about an upcoming *“Eagle 6 transaction”* that would supposedly be very big (30–60 day holding period with 180%–260% returns). I told them I would invest big, and that was the signal for the real scam. Since then, they’ve been asking me to provide screenshots of my losses so they could “compensate” me. I never invested a single dollar in any of the stocks they sent me—I was just curious to see where this was going. But wow… the level of sophistication and planning required to orchestrate such a scam is terrifying. It’s very bad for the stock market that things like this can happen unnoticed and without consequences for the scammers. I hope the relevant authorities step in and prevent these schemes, because from what I’ve read on other threads, some people have lost a lot.

HaussmannCoyote

**Plain and simple explanation:** a pump-and-dump scheme by scammers. Let me explain: Recently, I was targeted by two ads on Facebook: * The first one featured Aswath Damodaran (a very famous NYU Stern finance professor), speaking directly to the camera and explaining that he had a private investment group achieving great returns, inviting people to join. I clicked to see what it was and was redirected to a WhatsApp number. * The second one featured Jean Boivin (Head of BlackRock Financial Institute), doing the same thing, with a CTA button asking me to share my email/number to get in touch via WhatsApp. The first video and link felt sketchy, the second one even more so. I felt the scam coming, but that’s when I realized both videos were deepfakes. I knew this was a next-gen scam, well orchestrated with AI, so I decided to text the number to see what it was. Since the end of July, I have been in touch with a so-called *investment advisor*, who has been sending me messages about stocks to invest in. I was also added to a WhatsApp group. The stocks they sent me are the following (all NASDAQ-listed): * **SMCI** on July 31 (dropped $15 since) * **MRVL** on August 4 (no big movements since) * **INTC** on August 11 (up $10 since) * **AI (C3.ai, Inc.)** on August 13 (no major movements since) * **NIO** on August 18 (almost 2× since) * **GCT** on September 9 (no major movements since) Then they started talking about an upcoming *“Eagle 6 transaction”* that would supposedly be very big (30–60 day holding period with 180%–260% returns). I told them I would invest big, and that was the signal for the real scam. Since then, they’ve been asking me to provide screenshots of my losses so they could “compensate” me. I never invested a single dollar in any of the stocks they sent me—I was just curious to see where this was going. But wow… the level of sophistication and planning required to orchestrate such a scam is terrifying. It’s very bad for the stock market that things like this can happen unnoticed and without consequences for the scammers. I hope the relevant authorities step in and prevent these schemes, because from what I’ve read on other threads, some people have lost a lot.

LarryStink

The CTA unwind from 100 percentile max long will exacerbate this down move. Couple that with volatility sellers covering and we are setting up a mini April like selloff. My original target was around -5% but given the other macro circumstances unfolding we could very well see up to -10% before earnings season starts.

TiredElephant_c

https://preview.redd.it/kkanpyhoubqf1.jpeg?width=1500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a79fc867c4fa9c0acb816f2364ed56cc73cbe866 QQQ CTA positioning

TiredElephant_c

https://preview.redd.it/bkl67isaubqf1.jpeg?width=1500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5dad06d454ddff22e6aa00f0c086097c1ab58c17 Gold CTA positioning

TiredElephant_c

@ /u/plugsnet I’ll come back with mkre charts and more of a write up later but it’s really just an educated guess and an assessment of the risk reward here, the time on the contracts, how long it’s been since April, the labour market, an expensive and concentrated tech sector, some risks not quite having been priced in on rate cut optimism, an assessment of the switching of the American economy from manufacturing dominated to services dominated during a transition period. Arguably somewhat betting on the adoption of AI being rockier and more turbulent and less immediate ROIC than we might like to believe. Institutions and CTA’s are pretty crowded into tech for good reason and aggressively long it. So is retail. I also do like that the volume point of control from the april lows has shifted to the top 3rd of price action since april around the 570 level. https://preview.redd.it/50ki8ed7z5qf1.jpeg?width=1500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=48cfb9615339052503a5b50978615e97ea041bd2 I will come back later with more data.

Visible-Mastodon-277

i bought CTA as a hedge and it keeps going up, help

ExNihil013

I did the same. Was down 60% and stomached it for weeks and got out when I broke even. CTA but ffs I'm tired of of missing boats

Fun-Sundae4060

My personal allocation is - TQQQ 55% - UGL (gold 2x) 15% - EDV (bonds) 15% - CTA/KMLM (managed futures) 15% TQQQ, gold, managed futures, bonds strategy with 200SMA switch Results with dotcom bubble and 2008 GFC: Strategy: https://testfol.io/tactical?s=93v4T1s6yXo Standard ETFs: https://testfol.io/?s=9giBG7lgiNi

smitra00

CTA positioning points to a large dump: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ygBpEQPuH0&t=98s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ygBpEQPuH0&t=98s)

Fun-Sundae4060

TQQQ and QLD UPRO and SSO ZROZ, EDV GLD and lower ER variants CTA, KMLM, and DBMF

Fun-Sundae4060

Pretty simple, just set up a portfolio allocation based on backtesting and personal risk preference. You just regularly rebalance to the target allocation every week or month. QLD ZROZ GLD and CTA are my recommended funds. I would use at least 60-70% QLD and the rest into the other funds.

AlternativeSignal908

Check out this book. It was written in 2010 and is backed by academic research. The main point is that leverage when you're young may be appropriate and may actually reduce risk since it provides more diversification across time. # Lifecycle Investing: A New, Safe, and Audacious Way to Improve the Performance of Your Retirement Portfolio Ian Ayres and Barry Nalebuff In my experience, nakedly investing in leveraged index ETFs works until it doesn't. That is, you can have tremendous gains, but then give them all back. You need to have some portion of the portfolio that is a hedge and rebalance a couple times a year. Hedges are long treasuries (ZROZ), gold (GLDM) and potentially managed futures (CTA). Play around with different mixes on testfol.io. Really look closely at the 1970s or 2007/8 and consider your total leverage (amount of UPRO or SPUU) in the mix. It isn't going to be hard to run a leveraged portfolio in times like today. But imagine things going down and staying down for five years or longer. That will happen. It's guaranteed over your investing lifespan. Multiple times. Whatever portfolio you run, you need to believe in it strongly enough by doing the work so that you stick with it when the shit hits the fan. Which it will.

Maleficent-Hold-5466

CTA at 100th percentile long exposure

ConclusionEven6917

Who cares though, if the voting machine is up that must mean this is good news. Nobody actually understands what the data means, they just follow sentiment of the crowd which is actually CTA. So if you think about it, machines are already controlling everything

Married-and-dating

Here's a short list * **Mid‑2025** – Initial human data from PM359 (CGD Phase 1/2) anticipated – May 19, 2025 readout reported: 58% DHR positivity Day 15; 66% by Day 30; clean safety profile [celeritasinsights.com+10investors.primemedicine.com+10Nasdaq+10](https://investors.primemedicine.com/news-releases/news-release-details/prime-medicine-announces-breakthrough-clinical-data-showing/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **July 16, 2025** – Additional up to $24 M funding from CF Foundation for cystic fibrosis programs [investors.primemedicine.com](https://investors.primemedicine.com/news-releases/news-release-details/prime-medicine-announces-additional-funding-24-million-cystic?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **Late 2025** – Expected new preclinical data from CF, Wilson’s Disease, and potentially other pipeline programs (presentations/publications) [investors.primemedicine.com](https://investors.primemedicine.com/news-releases/news-release-details/prime-medicine-highlight-new-preclinical-data-including-vivo/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)[BioSpace](https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/prime-medicine-reports-third-quarter-2024-financial-results-and-provides-business-updates?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **H1 2026** – Planned IND or CTA filing for Wilson’s Disease (PM577) and AATD program [Nasdaq+7investors.primemedicine.com+7Nasdaq+7](https://investors.primemedicine.com/news-releases/news-release-details/prime-medicine-reports-first-quarter-2025-financial-results-and/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **2026** – Initiation of clinical trials for Wilson’s Disease & AATD; potential shift of CGD to pivotal study phase [investors.primemedicine.com](https://investors.primemedicine.com/news-releases/news-release-details/prime-medicine-reports-first-quarter-2025-financial-results-and/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)[Nasdaq](https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/prime-medicine-announces-strategic-restructuring-focus-opportunities-large-genetic?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **2027** – First clinical data expected from Wilson’s Disease and AATD trials; follow‑on data anticipated from BMS CAR‑T collaboration and CF programs Here's their corporate slide deck: [https://investors.primemedicine.com/static-files/a44c9990-f654-4c55-8e68-f034c9daa691](https://investors.primemedicine.com/static-files/a44c9990-f654-4c55-8e68-f034c9daa691) This is a revolutionary company that is literally on the verge of revolutionizing medicine... just kinda shocking when it was $1 a few months ago nobody was talking about it. I think it's still a steal. Bought another 10k today

TheLoneComic

Also there’s the Top Traders Unplugged podcast - usually CTA level interviews with the guys who write books like The Second Leg Down.

Fun-Sundae4060

Risk-on: 33% TQQQ for 99% equity 33% BTC 12% UGL for 24% gold 12% KMLM and CTA 10% ZROZ Risk-off (under 200SMA of QQQ): 25% QQQ 25% UGL 25% CTA and KMLM 25% ZROZ

Rude-Walk-6577

बिलकुल! नीचे मैं आपके लिए कम शब्दों में, एकदम सीधा और आकर्षक डुअल-लैंग्वेज़ ओपनिंग पैराग्राफ तैयार कर रहा हूँ — ताकि पढ़ने वाला रुक जाए और पूरा लेख पढ़ना चाहे। --- 🔰 ब्लॉग की शुरुआत (Dual-language, Hook Format, Compact Version) 💬 Hindi: कम वेतन का मतलब यह नहीं कि आप आर्थिक रूप से स्वतंत्र नहीं बन सकते। सही योजना, थोड़ी बचत और थोड़ी समझदारी से — आप भी वो मुकाम हासिल कर सकते हैं जो अब तक सिर्फ बड़े अमीरों का सपना लगता था। English: A low salary doesn’t mean you can’t be financially free. With smart planning, small savings, and consistent action — you can achieve a life of stability, freedom, and control over your money. 👇 इस लेख में जानिए 5 आसान लेकिन असरदार स्टेप्स जो सीमित आय में भी आत्मनिर्भरता की नींव रख सकते हैं। --- अगर आप चाहें तो मैं इसके नीचे वाला CTA सेक्शन भी बना सकता हूँ जैसे: > "Start now. Choose your first step below 👇" https://zindagiaurpaisa1.blogspot.com/2025/07/1.html बताइए, इसे भी जोड़ना है या नहीं?

Fun-Sundae4060

Are you willing to go more aggressive than VTI/VXUS? I am 26 and allocate my portfolio to follow a 200SMA TQQQ strategy with hedges. Above 200SMA of QQQ it looks like 33% TQQQ, 33% BTC, 12% CTA and KMLM, 12% UGL, and 10% ZROZ. Below 200SMA, it becomes 25% QQQ, 25% UGL, 25% CTA and KMLM, and 25% ZROZ. There is more volatility than 100% VOO, but similar max drawdown and far higher risk-adjusted-return.

Fun-Sundae4060

Have you tried just hedging it? I just follow the TQQQ 200SMA hedged strategy. 33% TQQQ 33% BTC 12% CTA 12% UGL 10% ZROZ Check for monthly close below or above 200SMA to begin any trade to risk-off. Rebalance monthly. Risk off portfolio: 25% QQQ 25% CTA 25% UGL 25% ZROZ

Ok_GAINZ

CTA's feeding the machine

Ok_GAINZ

CTA's are going to have to buy in without a pullback at this point.

Fun-Sundae4060

If you pull out BTC and CTA the backtest goes to 1995 I believe. It’s coupled with a 200SMA strategy that allows it to survive prolonged drawdowns by switching to QQQ and no BTC with all the same hedges. Largest drawdown is actually smaller than 100% VOO in 2008.

GAV17

> DBMFSIM/DBMFX: SG CTA Index (2000-2019) + 2.5% p.a. - 0.85% p.a., DBMF (2019-present) > DBMF is not bound to any index, but tries to replicate the gross return of large CTA hedge funds. The SG CTA Index reflects the net return of 20 large CTA hedge funds open to new investment. Thus, although they likely have similar return profiles, DBMFSIM performance before 2019 should not be taken as a one-to-one replication of how DBMF would have performed back then. [Should use this image.](https://www.google.com/search?q=survivorship+bias&oq=survivorship+bias&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCDU2MzBqMGo0qAICsAIB&client=ms-android-samsung-ss&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8#vhid=Wdd5gVwx1EipLM&vssid=_0qR9aIuyHIDT1sQPy6LO-Q4_45)

Fun-Sundae4060

DBMF, KMLM, and CTA are the most popular diversifiers. Add SIM to the end of DBMF or KMLM to extend the range of the backtesting dates. CTA has only limited historical data.

Fun-Sundae4060

I’m pretty leveraged compared to other people on here. Having just 1 asset class is not efficient if you just go ahead and test it with something with 2-3 assets. You’ll find the Sharpe will be much lower for a single asset class and sometimes even underperform the ones that are not 100% equities. 32% TQQQ for 96% QQQ 32% BTC 13% UGL for 26% gold 13% CTA 10% ZROZ

Fun-Sundae4060

Gold miners aren’t the same as gold, and MSTR isn’t in the SP500 yet still. Bonds tend to be noncorrelated with equities. Managed futures such as KMLM, DBMF, and CTA are excellent diversifiers. This is all based on backtesting data for my leveraged ETF strategy, not pulled from my butt. People just don’t know it lol.

prana_fish

We've now had a sharp V recovery in equity markets now in July since a close to 20% S&P drop back in April from the tariff panic. However, multiple reputable sources on podcasts and other media who interact with institutions and big clients with big pockets and hedge funds have repeatedly said these cohorts have missed the rally, and it's a hated rally. Don't get it. If institutions (not sure if just US based) didn't buy up the market for such a recovery, who did? Arguments can include systematic hedging flows, CTA trend following, corporate buybacks, short squeezes, and retail (my favorite whipping boy), but it's hard for me to believe these groups/mechanisms had the buying power to move the market like this. If JP Morgan and Goldman missed having their clients participate in the rally, don't understand. These are the shadowy groups who are supposed to move markets, not get flat footed so much by it (this is sarcasm to temper conspiracy theorists)

Fun-Sundae4060

Equities, treasury bonds, gold, and managed futures (optional) You’ll want a diversified bundle of each, so ETFs are your best option. VOO, ZROZ, IAUM, CTA are my suggestions. Perhaps 70% 10% 10% and 10% will be a good allocation for you. You can reduce equity exposure if you want less volatility but this comes at the cost of lower expected return.

Fun-Sundae4060

TQQQ and BTC hedged with CTA, ZROZ, and GLD.

Fun-Sundae4060

SSO, BTC, CTA, GLD, and ZROZ at all ages Decrease SSO and BTC as you get older and increase CTA, GLD, and ZROZ. Up to you how much volatility you want.

greytoc

In extended session, there is no nbbo because the markets aren't inter-linked. The nbbo is disseminated through what's known as SIPs. There primary SIP is from the CTA (Consolidated Tape Association). The CTA is technically an SRO (self-regulatotry organization) that is administered by NYSE. [https://www.ctaplan.com/index](https://www.ctaplan.com/index) I am unfamiliar with how extended session quote data is handled however.

Fun-Sundae4060

IAUM - gold CTA/KMLM/DBMF - managed futures TLT/ZROZ - 20+ year treasury bonds

Fun-Sundae4060

You have an investing account? Learn as much as you can about personal finance, debt, investing, and compounding returns. At your age I would really advocate for a heavily weighted portfolio of equities. Leveraged ETFs if you can stomach it. Something like TQQQ but QQQ if you really don’t want leverage. Hedge with GLD, ZROZ, and CTA. Those are precious metals (gold), long term US treasury bonds, and managed futures respectively. They serve to hedge your main position of equities and provide dry powder when equities are down.

Fun-Sundae4060

r/LETFs spilling over to r/investing 🤣 My exact strategy but I implement GLD, BTC, and CTA even in the full leverage portfolio.

TemptingChocolate

what's a CTA?

Fun-Sundae4060

Bonds are honestly kinda hot garbage right now but at retirement age I think you’ll want to look for minimum volatility not returns. Here is a very conservative portfolio example aiming for minimal volatility: 40% VOO 20% GLD 20% TLT 20% CTA

trumpdiego

##lol CTA's have to sell tech to cover oil shorts, this is glorious on both ends

AcceptableValuable40

The only reason why are up this high is because of the major volatility shorting that came in on the tariff pause bounce. The incentive now is changing, and we might have seen it actually flip today, into being long volatility for the next 30-60 days. These past two weeks have seen the highest net buying from retail in I think a year, top signal. CTA's will be selling agressively on any pullback below 6000 on ES. Long ITM or ATM puts for July-August are a profitable play here.

Fun-Sundae4060

I personally allocated TQQQ, BTC, CTA, and IAUM for my baby. TQQQ and BTC for capital appreciation and CTA and IAUM to hedge.

Fun-Sundae4060

Any portfolio without leverage or leveraged ETFs is not aggressive. 100% VOO or QQQ is inefficient and dumb, take 60% QLD or SSO with 40% CTA for example. 120% stock exposure with 40% hedge for better CAGR and less volatility at the same time.

notapersonaltrainer

> the ETF implementations (CTA/DBMF) are terrible ways to access this return profile, mostly due to limitations around leverage, assets held, and the 40act regs. CTA has outperformed 60/40 since inception with low correlation, which is pretty good for an alternatives holding. How much leverage and how many holdings do you need? As you go down into the more obscure commodity futures you start to add illiquidity issues without much alpha compensation.

HobbitFeet_23

I hold DBMF, KMLM and CTA. CTA seems to be the best one in terms of design for (expected) absolute returns as it uses several strategies, so it’s diversified not only in its holdings but also the kind of factors it uses (trend following, carry, relative value and risk off). I encourage you to watch the CTA deep dive videos, where they explain their strategies. The problem is that even if it has a submanager (Altis Partners), it’s a Simplify ETF, and Simplify has a history of blowing up their ETFs. If it had any other issuer, I’d be tempted to have it as my main managed futures fund.

EmuFit1895

OK, thanks, but CTA went up 23.1% in the past 36 months, which was mostly a bull market, so what do you mean by that? Thanks.

EmuFit1895

Thanks HobbitFeet. Does your endorsement of MF's extend to MF ETF's like CTA?

this_guy_fks

[https://wholesale.banking.societegenerale.com/fileadmin/indices\_feeds/ti\_screen/index.html](https://wholesale.banking.societegenerale.com/fileadmin/indices_feeds/ti_screen/index.html) since inception CTA index +167%, Trend Only Index +238% with no correlation to the spxt. im not sure what "literature" you're referring to, but its pretty plainly incorrect. CTAs/Managed Futures are a great diversifer to a portfolio of long only equities, but adds no value to retail traders, the ETF implementations (CTA/DBMF) are terrible ways to access this return profile, mostly due to limitations around leverage, assets held, and the 40act regs. you would need to open a managed account of access CTAs through a banks channels (DB Select for example) and no retail investor has the capital allocation to support it (otherwise instead of paying 1/15 youd go to your private bank wealth manager and buy a CTA tracker QIS index)

Fun-Sundae4060

My personal allocation for my baby is 40% TQQQ, 40% BTC, 10% IAUM, and 10% CTA. 120% equities, 40% Bitcoin, 10% gold, 10% managed futures. Very aggressive yet low beta strategy with 4 asset classes. Rebalanced quarterly

Fun-Sundae4060

QLD or SSO with some gold, bitcoin, and managed futures like CTA. rebalance quarterly/monthly