Home Depot Inc
It’s amazing to me how people are hyped on BEV for HD and like BUY BUY Tesla over it.. and don’t realize FCEV is the real solution.. but yet thrash the only OEM (Nikola) who will mass produce these. Some people have no idea how HD sector works.
Homes skyrocketed. People started taking out helocs for home improvements and everyone wanted to restore their homes to sell into a hot market. We now have mortgages avg 5.36% and a housing market correction appears to be underway. I think this will affect both HD’s lumbar and professional grade businesses for building and will hamper individuals spending on home improvement furnishings and other small items. Just needs time. Maybe sell and roll out to March, take the loss and pay the extra premium and accept lower overall profits. Still great profits to be made.
I have a lot that I like but I guess my favorite right now is HD. They just had a great quarter, very optimistic for the future, and I do think they will keep their momentum with people spending money on their existing homes rather than trying to sell/buy a new home.
People keep talking about Santa rally…..we just had it. Even if he’s dovish what individual stocks do you think will drive indices higher? Everything except tech and REITS and a few retailers is approaching or at ATH again and when you look at some of those stocks like HD as an example they only hit that ATH very briefly
Home Depot is categorized as consumer discretionary. It’s sensitive to home building and home repair activities, each of which are associated with macro conditions. It’s -22% YTD, vs the S&P 500 being -17% YTD. I’m saying this to correct the thinking about how it should be expected to perform relative to the market in set conditions, rather than to say that I think it’s a bad investment. Point of fact: I don’t chase momentum. I prefer to establish long positions in profitable, high margin businesses while they’re down. I would rather buy HD than WMT right now.
I invest in 10 individual stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Google, Lows, HD, Texas Instruments, UPS. Ones I know are stable to the consumer and world. The rest are ETFs SCHD, SCHB, QQQM and thinking now about SPDR sector ETFs. Dividend aristocrats/Kings are a good start.
> Or are you guys not the same guys that cared about sticking it to the guys screwing you like you did with GameStop lol, that demographic was *not* what r/wsb was about. The chest-thumping, virtue signalling dipshits who were really in it for the money, are not trading. The purpose of trading is not to, "send a message". This isn't a fucking movie, you're not the renegade hero/anti-hero/whatever the fuck you kids worship in movies now. DFV saw a good opportunity to buy a stock that was shorted beyond the available open float, a company that had not really gone full bust yet. The people who joined him initially did it knowing exactly their motivation: make money. The rest of the *monkeys* who join in were do busy congratulating themselves for, "sTiCkInG iT tO tHe SyStEm", not realising they are just bagholders looking for a get-rich-quick scheme. The cults followed, because fuck the fact the stock that you just like so much was struggling to operate already and despite all the popularity, does not really know how to stay relevant in the era of streaming HD services and online platforms like Steam. You guys are just as miserable as that narcissist running twatter. Another side of the same degenerate coin.
Depending on who you ask, they're not as good as Milwaukee or DeWalt. But they're definitely better than Ryobi, arguably Makita as well. When I worked for HD and would help people with tool selection, I always recommend Rigid if they didn't have a brand preference, because of that lifetime warranty. I bought a set a couple years ago and I've only used it a few times, but they're great. If you're only a weekend warrior, it doesn't really matter what you get honestly. But I've seen the warranty in action, and they'll literally replace your battery just because it stops charging because you've used it to death.
#Ban Bet Lost /u/altacc71 made a bet that HD would go to 260.0 within **4 weeks** when it was 291.475 and it did not, so they were banned for a week. Their record is now 2 wins and 2 losses ^^^^[WSB_Stats](https://www.twitch.tv/wsbzjz/) **/** ^^^^[WSB_Discord](http://discord.gg/wsbverse) **/** ^^^^[BanBets](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/banbets/) **/** ^^^^[VoteBot_FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/votebot/) **/** ^^^^[VoteBot_Leaderboard](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/leaderboard/) **/** ^^^^^[**Keep_VM_Alive**](https://www.patreon.com/visualmod)
"It would be helpful to see concrete trades." Probably not, but I'll post some old trades. Sorry about the format, I just cut and pasted from my spreadsheet. weighted return is not useful information to you. symbol length (in days) amnt risked return $ return ann.% weighted rtrn 79 2xHAS (70-72.5 put) 10 500 53.85 393.11% 0.37% 80 1xNOC (175-180 call) 5 500 23.41 341.79% 0.32% 81 3xEXPE (114-113) puts 8 300 35.29 536.70% 0.31% 82 2xHD (109-107)puts 8 400 13.85 157.98% 0.12% 83 4XEXPE (117-118 put) 7 400 28.71 369.13% 0.28% 84 2xAVGO (145-150 call)18 1000 21.85 43.70% 0.08% 85 2xGOLD (70-72.5 call) 11 500 11.78 78.18% 0.07% 86 3xGOOGL (695-697.5 call)4 750 26.19 318.65% 0.45% 87 2x TSLA 187.5-185 put 8 500 17.85 162.88% 0.15% 88 2x HD 127-128 call 4 200 21.85 996.91% 0.38% 89 3x WYNN 73-71.5 call 4 450 32.25 654.77% 0.56% 90 2xGLD 118-116.5 call 9 300 13.85 187.23% 0.11% 91 2xIBB 355-352.5 call 4 500 21.85 398.76% 0.38% 92 2xWYNN 80-78 call 4 400 21.85 498.45% 0.38%
>01:02 1 5G L HD 86 Q OO A 3,482,695.66 $ 1L USD Currency Auto Stock Exchange Yield Pro All Accounts(5) US Margin Account(5644) Net Assets.USD Today's P/L +343,567.12 3,482,695.66 +10.94% Quick Trade C = ZL Invest Details Symbol V MV/QTY Price/Cost Today's P/L Green Giant 200 10/.28 Filled GGE 2./18 15:47:12 Buy Green Giant 100 10//20 Filled GGE 2..04 12::23:09 Sell Green Giant 100 10/.18 Filled GGE .79 04::35:51 Sell Green Giant 1000 10/.18 Filld GEE 180 04::3544 Sll Grn Gian 1000 018 Fiied GE 80 43540 Sel Gre Gigat 100018 Fille GG 185 43526 Se Gree Giianl 1100 18 Fllee GG185 43526 NASDAQ 11031 32 -114 74 103 ^ Trde Comment Alerts Share More
Dividend Growth Stocks $V Visa 💳 $AAPL Apple📱 $HD Home Depot👷🏻♂️ $WM Waste Management♻️ $JPM JP Morgan 🏦 $MSFT Microsoft 💻 $COST Costco 🛒 $KO Coca-Cola🥤 $MCD McDonalds 🍔 $JNJ Johnson & Johnson💊 $PG Proctor & Gamble 🧼 $SBUX Starbucks ☕️ How many do you own?
# Tickers of Interest - TL;DR **Gamma Max Cross** * [LQD](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#LQD) 12/16 105P for $1.20 or less * [BP](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#BP) 12/16 33P for $0.60 or less * [EMB](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#EMB) 12/16 83P for $1.30 or less * [MRVL](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#MRVL) 12/16 42.5P for $2.45 or less * [HD](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#HD) 12/16 310P for $8.85 or less **Delta Neutral Cross** * [HYG](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#HYG) 12/16 74P for $1.20 or less * [VZ](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#VZ) 12/16 38P for $0.60 or less * [ASTS](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#ASTS) 12/16 7.5C for $0.50 or less * [XLB](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#XLB) 12/16 79P for $1.65 or less * [FL](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#FL) 12/16 35P for $1.30 or less # Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today. This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0. For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals. The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV. # Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle * If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open. * Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. * I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in. * The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. # FAQ - Because others have already asked. * These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? * No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. * Are you entering all these plays? * No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn. * You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean? * The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not. * Where are the crayons? I only see words. * Click the links above. * Have you back-tested this? * Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error) * What is the historical performance? * The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.85 with a 67% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 49% and 72%. (Stats as of 2022-10-28)
I love the first 5 - looking at the graphs they are all coming down from bouncing off or near their channel maximums! i put in orders for tomorrow and I will also repost if my limit triggers! 6 EMB Dec 22 $80P 5 LQD Dec 16 $105P 5 BP DEC 16 $33P 3 MRVL DEC 16 $40P Side note: I'm also limit ordering 10 XLE Mar 17 $60p and 5 V 12/30 $225C ​ I'm passing on HD because I'm butthurt i lost on earnings play calls with them. The delta neutral didn't look that promising. Guess this smooth brain needs to learn what gamma max and neutral cross mean?
Not if you just hold good companies. Almost every blue chip i look back at over the last 20 or 30.years has beat or tied the market. Things like UNP LIN ODFL COST UNH TMO HD etc. But yeah I think it's easier to dca into an index psychologically.
#Ban Bet Lost /u/OTRinaKW9 (0/1) made a bet that HD would go to 350.0 within **3 days** when it was 307.0 and it did not, so they were banned for a week. Their record is now 0 wins and 1 losses ---- ^[LEADERBOARD](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/banbets/) - ^[FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/banbets/#wiki_faq_.26amp.3B_commands) - ^[STATS](https://www.twitch.tv/wsbzjz/)
Business systems analyst, I have a particular set of skills that do not help at all in this market. I rely on the Wendy's sous chef to serve me up devastating losses to make myself feel better about losing $32.50 on a 0dte HD put.
Is all this Red because of Target? Why? It's like FedEx... run like shit. Look at WMT, HD, LOW... even Macy's this morning. I think extrapolating from TGT to the entire market isn't entirely correct. .. but they're gonna fucking do it anyways.
I used to shop at Target all the time, but it seems the shopping experience has gotten worse. Their app sucks now. When you look for something online/in-app it returns a bunch of results from third-party sellers (you can filter these out, but still annoying). A lot of the prices on-line/in-store are more expensive than Amazon. I used to buy a lot of clothes from them and it was a really good deal with promotions, but even after promotions I think it's too expensive for what it is. Baby stuff I get is rarely cheaper than similar Costco/Amazon stuff. Groceries are about the same prices as Trader Joes. I moved into a new house this year and when searching for home goods, Target was the most expensive compared to HD, Amazon, Ikea, and even Wayfair. I realize I'm only one data point, but I can't imagine I'm the only one experiencing this which is leading to a decline in Target earnings.
For the near term I think fundamentals will be discussed when a stock has an irrational dip and we want to tell other people to buy it (ex HD a month ago). Unfortunately, we’re still in buy the dip mode which means that most of the dips that last for more than a couple hours are very warranted. And then it’s hard to discuss those because there’s no point in discussing something that I do not recommend!
$HD gets you a bit into retail but also in home improvement. Has a bit of a dividend with decent growth $LMT, can’t go wrong with defense. Less growth but decent dividend. Raytheon is a good substitute. $DIS, so much IP along with Disney plus and Hulu. Along with parks, cruises, toys, etc. Get in now at 2019 prices but with 2022 revenue! Might go down more but might not. This company will be around in 20 years. $ ODFL, the country needs shipping and this company does it well. Recession could hurt demand but they can weather through it. Solid stock and top in the business imo. $SBUX, had a lot of headwinds with pulling. Out of Russia and China zero covid. Also getting a new ceo so price is rough. But dominating in the US. Record revenue even tho the headwinds are rough. Even in a recession the most addictive drug in the world will be there to ease your pain. and $CROX who doesn’t love a funky shoe? You can badazelle them with $9 clip ons that get lost but your kid screams so much you keep buying more! Currently at a 9 p/e. Who knows why people love this hideous shoe, but the numbers speak for itself 🤷 Imo these are each the top of what they do. Each company will be here in 10-20 years unless the business models change. They aren’t tech and likely won’t have tech growth, but they also won’t keep you up at night holding them (usually).
Discretionary v staples/essentials A lot of people are gonna be stuck in the house they bought with 2% interest, they're not gonna go anywhere other than HD or Lowes for supplies. Walmart focuses on staples and has probably focused their inventory further on them with inflation running.
SPY gamma to the upset is stacked pretty well - doesn't necessarily mean shit, but I think bears are desperate for a sell off (as seen with the afternoon volume when there was a hint of bad news). There's a good amount of 4000/4100c OI. I'm holding some 405c SPY 12/16s to see if we fully test the upper trendline. CPI/PPI fairly bullish and WMT/HD has pretty good earnings and holiday outlooks. Retail sales get released tomorrow, forecast is for them to be less worse. If it's confirmed that there wasn't an intentional strike in Poland AND retail sales improve... I could see the rally continuing.