HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc
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Apocalypse is priced into Hotel REITs at the dawn of their golden age... I’m leveraged to the tits 🌰🌰
Apocalypse is priced into Hotel REITs at the dawn of their golden age... I’m leveraged to the tits 🌰🌰
Hilton stock edges higher on earnings beat, hiked EBITDA forecast (NYSE:HLT)
Pershing Square Holdings - Follow Bill Ackman’s portfolio at a significant discount
Melvin Capital Institutional Holdings
I'm poor. And new here! These are my first investments made, ever!
Good time to take a look at AHT. US hotel occupancy is bouncing back. Shares of large names such as HLT MAR have already seen a nice bounce back over last two weeks.
ABNB Strong earnings after Airlines and Hotel report?
Bill Ackman still sees a massive economic boom despite the delta variant, says rates to rebound
Mentions
Whether successful or not who knows, but I think there will be some attempt to keep the market going into midterms. Maybe you get a dip earlier in the year and then the pump after that. After midterms and into 2027 wouldn't surprise me if you had the mild bear market. "Most of the AI announcements are already in place." I think there can always be more of this kind of thing that one can imagine, but the thing that I think threw a lot of people this week was the hints at wanting government backstops. That was somewhat walked back, but the moment the OpenAI CFO talked about wanting the government to step in, I think a lot of people who were questioning the sustainability of the theme felt that offered confirmation of their skepticism. The consumer is increasingly concerning but still kind of a mixed bag. There are things that are looking awful - restaurants, CPG. Elf has a terrible quarter and goes down 35% in a day, then goes down another 5%. Celsius got obliterated. Chipotle is down just shy of 50% for the year. The biggest pawn shop co (FCFS) is having record quarters. And yet, travel - which is generally the first thing to go when the consumer cools - seems to be doing okay. Expedia was up 17% yesterday. HLT/MAR aren't having a great year, but they're still green for the year.
DIS, HLT, MAR, WY. Given that this will mostly affect countries in S. America, you can pretty much write off the entire Florida tourism economy.
I don’t care what anyone says, I’m holding my illiquid DE and HLT puts to the bitter end. None of this shit makes sense.
Wife works in convention sales and says things are extremely dead. Like worryingly dead. In other news I bought HLT puts for June
Thoughts on HLT? I know it’s not next week but 29th April, but still…
Short HLT too. Higher forward PE than NVDA. many other reasons.
I made 150% on puts for MAR and HLT. I took 50% off the table on approximately 4/4. I still hold 4 puts for both dated July and September. Not a lot of volume. Mariott isn't my big bet. Hilton has a PE for 26 and had a PEG ratio over 2. I don't think HLT deserves a 26+ PE. Profitable, yes, but 26 growing 7% - 10% a year?
Because MAR and HLT are asset light global operators and they also make money when Canadians for example re-direct their travel to Mexico or Europe. WH is example of a stock that is more US centric.
Unemployment, and the consequence of poor consumer sentiment. Let's say the federal government cuts 500k jobs. Those 500k and their immediate families are no longer flying ($JBLU) on vacation to stay in hotels ($HLT), nor buying new cars ($F)... you get the drift. Deregulation may help lower costs and increase profits, but if sales drops more than cost savings, it doesn't really do much good. Federal government layoffs are going to inspire layoffs in the private sector. People who lose jobs don't spend money. Market goes down. It isn't more complicated than that, at the end of the day.
Strangle $SPY Butterfly spread $V, $MAR , $HLT Holding $SMCI until Thursday Jumping out the window before $NVDA earnings
"Currently my 40% portfolio is $PK" I would never put 40% of my portfolio in anything, but particularly a hotel REIT which get absolutely obliterated any time there's the slightest slowdown. I mean, look at BHR, APLE, DRH, AHT, SOHO, PK, PEB and others - all hotel REITs, all still below or well below where they were in 2019 and eventually we're going to have a recession again. This subsector of REITs really does have kind of a terrible track record and you'd be better off just investing in MAR/HLT. Is PK cheap? Sure. It's definitely cheap but we've had this period where travel has been back and it just keeps eroding. Where's it going to be when things do actually start to turn South in the economy? I mean, PK has been a public company now for close to a decade and the share price track record is -55%. Good luck to you and hope you do well but I can understand 2-3% to this as a value play but definitely not 40% or anything remotely close to that. You have a sector of REITs that hasn't really done all that great when times are good and then gets obliterated the moment things turn South.
HLT 
GOOG BN HLT Everybody boo OP
- Google ($GOOG) 16.5% - Brookfield ($BN) 14.4% - Hilton ($HLT) 14%
Google (GOOG), Brookfield (BN), Hilton(HLT)
I've got TSN and RCL puts as well as some airlines and hotels all expiring around April. TSN puts are the safest bet but RCL and HLT have the longest way to fall. Best of luck to us
So HLT calls? If they can sell their rooms at this price, earnings will be a blast.
There is a lot to this. If you look at the HLT MAR chart. They themselves seem absurd with how much valuation they got. Was it illegal immigration with paid for hotel stays by the gov that helped them reap so much benefit? In any case it's bad if they ran that much and haven't assisted in raising wages for the people that clean up after people. They should get paid more. How do you show up to work everyday and see youre company profits you work for rise over 100% in 2 years and be ok with making peanuts? Three things hotels have going against them. -travel boom slowing -realization of high credit card debt (less travelers) -deflation -real estate valuations lowering -gov assistance ending for free hotels -shrinking companies and funds for travel at a mass business scale Then throw walk outs. Hotels are at all time highs and I don't think the future outlook is looking good.
HLT starting to look like a long term short to me
I don't think that's true. I think the highly leveraged leisure have dropped due to interest rates. Things like PK (hotel REIT) have dropped, but things like HLT are at ATHs; and PK is rising strong today. Discretionary like BOOT, ANF, TJX, and so forth are way up. I think what we've seen is the interest rate scare, and what we haven't seen is the recession scare.
HLT for lyfe all my homies hate ABNB🚬
Never posted here before but something about HLT seems fishy - they typically try to lead earnings season for the hotel sector and instead they’re way after MAR and really late compared to their prior history. Also their second highest ranking person in investor relations used to work for Disney and they’ve conveniently scheduled their earnings call at the same time when everyone will be looking at DIS. They’re also just flat out not innovating in hotels anymore. All probably nonsense but feels weird…
"handful of stocks to hold like Bill Ackman didn't realize he's only holding 7 companies and 20% of it is Chipotle." Pershing Square has always been concentrated but it's always been very consistent, quality names that aren't full on "watching paint dry" boring but aren't exciting either. Turning your portfolio into a concentrated tech fund is not the same thing and it's not going to be nearly as easy as holding a portfolio of HLT, CP and the like.
Calls on pornhub after HLT reports
Anybody else watching "one night in Paris" HLT $$$
$H - Hyatt hotel $HLT - Hilton hotels $MAR - Marriot hotels They are at +30/40/50 respectively on 6 months. Any reason for such a growth in this sector ?
$IWG. It’s a well-run version of $WE + $HLT/ $MAR style cap light operator + $ABNB style bookings platform that screens as office real estate.
GE and HLT strong. Flight to safety
Thoughts on HLT 4/19 200c? I bought them at the top today:4271:
Fuck it bought some 4/19 HLT calls
Why does ABNB have over half the P/E (20) of HLT (50)?
Currently have LLY,PBR,HLT,GE This good or bad ? As a beginner
What do we think about HLT (Hilton Hotel) puts? or calls? 
HLT Hilton posts earnings on Tuesday you guys better get in while it’s under 200 today. I could rant on DD but TLDR generational assets stock only go up travel never dies wether people can afford it or not. personally been invested with them and Marriott heavily only seen green for years. Parents bought a time share back in 92. I’m half there age and about to buy the damn hotel. (Haven’t taken a vacation since opening a brokerage account.)
Don't think calls are the play for next week maybe except PLTR/PEP/HLT. SNAP/PINS are up only because of META and I don't see most of the ones on the list hitting any of the rev estimates.
How about LLY, or CAT, or JPM, or BRK, or SNPS or COST or AMZN or SMCI or CMG or HLT or even CCJ or any of the other many companies at multi-year and or all time highs. Nah, let’s just close our eyes and pretend it is only 7 stocks going up.
Lol check out the charts in IHG, MAR, HLT, H over last 6 weeks.. these are pretty boring businesses
These are the various individual stocks I have purchased after looking into them. The only ones that in my opinion were more guessing than bluechip were AbbVie, Plains All American, and Greif as I was unfamiliar with them. IRM GEF AAPL COST MSFT PAA KLG ABBV HLT CSCO
Airlines lose money in good times and even more money in bad times. They carry an insane debt load. Hell American has gone bankrupt four times alone. If you want travel exposure I'd buy hotel/casino operators, maybe MGM or HLT or Sands, personally.
No idea what it does in the short term but if I were to own travel (I don't currently) I'd much rather MAR/HLT - which have outperformed cruises and airlines (JETS etf) over the last 5 years and really, hotels imo are the best business model in travel.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG), Restaurant Brands International Inc (QSR), Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW), Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT), Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (CP) for pricing power Verizon(VZ), Altria(MO), Goldman Sachs(gsbd), 3M(MMM) for dividends
> I'm talking about an entire sector, not an individual stock., you think people will stop flying in the future? Look at any number of airlines over the last 5-10-15 years. Do you think the returns even when times are good are compelling enough to justify the significant macro sensitivity? The JETS etf covid bounce didn't even get it back to pre-covid levels and after that bounce of about a year or so it started to erode again. This, despite continued discussion of pent-up demand for travel. 5 yr returns: JETS etf: -44% Hilton/HLT +107% Marriott/MAR +68% This does not mean that people will stop flying. It means that airlines will continue to exist but just maybe aren't a very good business. Hotels with franchise opportunities and fee-based earnings are also sensitive to macro, but are more compelling business models. Buffett has said the same on a number of occasions. I don't want to own hotels either, but if I had to own travel, I'd rather own a Marriott or Hilton where the company is paid a management fee for managed properties or someone builds a hotel and pays royalties for use of brand names. They are better business models and the returns over the last 5 years that included a lot of pent up demand for travel - in my opinion - show that.
"During the latter period of Crandall's tenure as CEO, investor concern over airline bankruptcies and falling stock prices caused Crandall to remind his employees about the dangers of investing in airline stocks. Known for his candor, Crandall later told an interviewer, "I've never invested in any airline. I'm an airline manager. I don't invest in airlines. And I always said to the employees of American, 'This is not an appropriate investment. It's a great place to work and it's a great company that does important work. But airlines are not an investment.'" Crandall noted that since the airline deregulation of the 1970s, some 150 airlines had gone out of business. "A lot of people came into the airline business. Most of them promptly exited, minus their money," he said." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Crandall) So much love for airlines on Reddit - which aren't a good business - and not that much discussion of hotels (MAR, HLT) which are. However, the moment there's concerns about consumer spending, travel goes in the toilet - but if I had to invest in travel, hotels over airlines without question.
Great question. I made that bank stock purchase in my 20's. At about 30 I hired an advisor who did a good job educating me and my portfolio did pretty good and began making 401k contributions. Then came the dotcom era. The excessive amount of greed was crazy. I started a new job, increased my 401k contributions and has received stock options (1,000 units). I was sucked in!! I checked the market numerous times daily. It became an obsession. I started trading frequently, some good, some great and some total shite! Fast forward a couple years and the wheels fell off the bus. The dotcom bubble burst. We were in a recession, the market did poorly and there was a margin call on my brokerage account. I didn't do too good. I began working with a different planner who I actually became friends with. He taught me 3 things: 1. The benefit of a "balanced" portfolio 2. Slow and steady wins the race 3. Make quality investments. I rebalanced my IRA's and my 401k and I increased my contributions to both accounts. I still bought individual companys' stock, but they were quality--Companies like XOM, MRK, MSFT, GOOG, PFE, VZ, HLT... I don't still have all these today but you get the idea. The biggest changes were my investing/thinking matured. I've done ridiculously well on some stocks but they have been over a 2 to 3 years period (except for MSFT which is 12 yrs so far). I've done poorly on some too which I sell and take the loss and move on. I don't panic sell and I don't time the market. Today, my balance is solid and it enabled me to retire in Jan 22 once I turned 59.
HLT may be a good weekly runner.
Hey, thanks for posting, great stuff. It looks like PK has about $800m of debt maturing this year while HLT has no maturities until 2025, plus PK is trying to get out of San Fran hotels. Could these issues be leading to the valuation disconnect?
Maybe this has something to do with the decline of $PK? ### Table3: Comparison of growths of HLT and PK side by side ​ https://preview.redd.it/nde4bfod2qbb1.jpeg?width=1088&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5f688baa74f53e7922ae70ad76bd9e736f23150b
I can't help but to conclude from the likes of ABNB, EXPE, and BKNG that travel is not as booming as hotel and airline bosses are claiming. If so, there will be some really bad drops coming in next earnings season. Looking at you, MAR and HLT. Your ruined hotel rooms dating back to the 70s are a nightmare.
>RIP > >📷[**I Am Upset**](https://www.reddit.com/r/airbnb_hosts/search?q=flair_name%3A%22I%20Am%20Upset%22&restrict_sr=1) > >Superhost with hundreds of stays and multiple listings here. My listings have been dead for a while. I’ve tried lowering my prices, I’ve lowered my cleaning fees, I’ve went over the listings with a fine tooth comb and updated them. Still nothing, nodda, zip. > >I see alot of other hosts are experiencing the same. Has anybody cracked the code on getting more bookings? Not sure what the cause is. Some say recession, some say Airbnb update caused it. > >I went from having all these happy guests to nothing and I’m not sure the cause or how to fix it. [https://www.reddit.com/r/airbnb\_hosts/comments/1106b3g/rip/](https://www.reddit.com/r/airbnb_hosts/comments/1106b3g/rip/) Goes on to say that many of the long-term hosts were tech bros and Instagram influencers that are moving back into mom's basement as they got fired. Others mentioned that they are staying in hotels more on travel. TLDR: Long MAR, HLT, and others Short: ABNB, VRBO
Who gave me the HLT calls last week? I made 42%.
I felt good about travel stocks going into this earnings season… have a call contract on HLT too which is scheduled to report on Thursday. Let’s see if that bet wipes out the gains from this one. 😋
worth noting HLT/BKNG trade at a lower FCF yield and have slower growth expectations than ABNB. Businesses are obviously more established
Sure. I shorted TQQQ and NAIL from roughly December to February. I also shorted HLT and MA from April to June. I shorted TLT from August to October, and then longed in for a couple week recently. I lost way too much on call options on ATRO in the spring (it crashed and burned and I was in way too deep), and I made some swinging SPR a bunch of times. I then made some on far otm CSP throughout the year, and also on some 0 dte SPX credit spreads. I left tons on the table by ending shorts early, but that's typical for me since I think the market is irrationally bullish and I don't like holding onto short positions.
That's not bad. Apple and Microsoft great. Disney is never going to be a home run but is certainly a built to last company ripe for a turnaround. Not a fan of airlines at all. Would rather hotels if you're going to own travel (and really, travel is such an economically sensitive area that I tend not to own it at all.) Hotels (MAR, HLT) to me are a much more attractive franchise business model. P and G fine but do be aware that if we get a risk on rally that that will probably be sold off. Media stocks have been obliterated so you might get a sizable bounce if the economy improves but long-term not a fan (before WBD and PARA there was DISCA and VIAC and neither produced particularly compelling returns for shareholders over the long term.) JPM best choice in large banks. OXY good. I wouldn't go too much further in tech. Activision deal with Microsoft looks as if it may not happen (which Microsoft wouldn't be unhappy with probably - they overpaid.) If it happens, it will go to the agreed on price. If it doesn't, the question becomes how much lower does it reset? Definitely no to ATT. It's been a poorly run business for years and too many people look at the yield/think that telecom is a good business because it's ubiqitous. I'd look at healthcare/life sciences. Thermo Fisher is a great company, with a lot of recurring revenue. Life science is a fantastic business model - for a lot of things, it's very much "printer and ink" - sell the equipment, then sell consumables that are required to use the equipment over and over and over and over again. So I don't think this is a bad start. I don't agree with airlines and would rather hotels (hotels better business model + flying only benefits longer-distance vacations whereas someone could fly and stay at a Hilton + do a short-distance staycation at one.) Also not a fan of media cos because, well - their history of returns isn't great. LGF another example of that. You might get some deals if some of these things get cheap enough and deals don't get blocked by antitrust, but that's just hope. Will probably bounce and maybe bounce considerably if things improve in the economy, but "pure play" media stocks have always felt to me like a terrible place to be when the economy is bad and a "meh" place to be when it's good. You might get a solid, sustained bounce on an upturn in the economy, but once that settles I feel like there's better places to be. So, good start. You've got some growth, you've got some value, you've got a reasonable amount of diversification. There's a couple of things that aren't my thing - I'd rather the fee-based, asset lite franchise model of hotels than airlines, not fond of media stocks - but otherwise fine. Keep up the reasonable diversification and continue to find a balance between value and growth.
No. If I'm betting on travel (I'm not but if I was) I'm betting on hotel chains (HLT, MAR), which are just a better business.
No time to write a detailed DD, in short: 1. Airbnb experiencing record demand and is jacking up fees in response. That's where all your complaints came from. 2. Higher end consumer discretionary stocks all posted massive beats this quarter: UBER, SOFI, CMG, AAPL 3. Travel stocks also posting beats: AXP, HLT, V 4. Tons of WSB regards yoloing puts. Need I say more? ABNB options have a history of overpricing earnings moves, so I'm going in with 2000 shares.
Not to mention HLT. Demand is hot 🔥 in services and leisure and probably won't cool til next year
Don't buy puts on ABNB the services sector was the only reason GDP wad positive Q3 look at HLT earnings calls
I was doing more DD on the hated Ackman PSH -- i never seen so much discount, 35% to NAV of holdings, which are basically LOW/CMG/QSR/HLT/HHC/DPZ PSH nav 47.8$, his fund is trading at 30$ on Amsterdam, and he buys around 2M per week of his shares back since there is so much spread -- my question, why it is such spread? I understand he fck up with herba life short, but he explicitly stated no more shorting or active trading... I would love to buy all of the ticker above with 35% discount..
Deep ITM HLT calls Oct/Jan ??
Lol, not that surprised. Two of my kids got degrees from CU's Nolan School and for a short time I covered the restaurant sector on the street before moving back to tech just in time to take companies public with no profits during dotcom lol. One of my best friends, Kevin, is HLT's CFO and I almost took a gig as IR director there a few years back.
The question is can BA and HLT miss hard enough to bring down the S&P premarket?
Europe just doesn't give a fuk about COVID anymore. It's basically over while you still can't fly to the US without a test. Many Europeans are travelling within Europe or to asian countries this holiday season. US tourism that relies on European travel will be beat down. SEAS,DIS,HLT, etc.
"Travel clouds forming?" asks Morgan Stanley. "Weekly data implies European RevPAR "slowed to -2%. In the US, weekly data implies April +8% vs Mar +4% and Q1 -3%, and May's pace so far has slowed to +5%." $MAR $ABNB $HLT
Sure, but when do you remember REAL inflation (not CPLie) being at 10%-15%? My first mortgage was 11%, and it sucked. So after that first big vacation in 2 years, for which ppl are not as price-sensitive as usual, I can see consumer spending slowing, and this is what the mkts are saying too. Fwiw, I'm short HLT and EXPE, and Kevin Jacobs, a good friend, is HLT's CFO in VA. No inside info, just reading between the lines. Listen to his recent video on linked in. Holy crap, what are you invested in that your port is down 50%? I'm up nearly 25% YTD cuz I moved 40% into energy and commodities last Nov and shorted Qs and IWM during the fake Santa rally using puts that I continue to roll. The rest is cash. Sounds like you've got fairly large beta, tho even bonds have gotten smacked hard YTD, very few places to hide. Doubt there's a rocket ride coming, maybe bear market countertrend rallies. The bond market is also disagreeing with your assessment, and as you know bond traders are the smart money. That being said, I can see 4100 at end of year, but the path to essentially run in place will almost certainly be volatile.
You have some pent up demand for travel after covid - Marriott this morning had a good quarter and other names have been generally positive. I think the broader concerns about inflation and potential recession are an issue though: you may have near-to-medium term demand from pent-up demand but beyond that travel is certainly very economically sensitive. Remains to be seen how much the pent-up demand can be sustained given the negatives. MAR/HLT are very good businesses over the long-term, but they're going to be volatile holdings over time. "investing in "reopening" plays again." Me in early 2021: I'm gonna devote a small portion of my portfolio to re-opening] Shortly after: variant (I dump re-opening) Later in 2021: Lets try this again Shortly after: variant (dump) Early 2022: It has to work this time Shortly after: war breaks out in Europe
HLT desperately trying to smash 160
Thank you, I have puts on HLT and I am getting smoked right now my stroke price is 150 and my average price is 42 cent.
Earlier today, wishing the best for u/OptionsTrader14, but I had decided not to play PRCT: >[And I feel PRCT will fade. Same reason why I didn't jump on HLT.](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsOGs/comments/u2nos0/comment/i4knboh/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) Looking at them now and they're both rockstars. 😣 PRCT doesn't have an option chain, but I didn't pull the trigger on HLT Apr14 150c when they were $1.50-1.60 ($4.00 now) and it just sucks. Nice play, u/OptionsTrader14.
Thought about GME and PRCT. Didn't feel GME was a sure thing, just like I didn't jump on HZNP. And I feel PRCT will fade. Same reason why I didn't jump on HLT. Hope you make cash, though.
This Hilton Tru I'm at is dumb. But it has this new pancake making machine, made so even a moron like me won't burn himself. Gonna get up early and make 30 of them and trade. Calls on HLT.
I like Baba CCL JETS HLT HYMC AMC AMD TSLA rally continues for another month to dow 36k
So tempted to open Jul MAR or HLT puts…
If we want to talk about bubbles, let’s talk about how HLT is 50% above pre-pandemic levels while making 15% less money 🤔🤔
How are hotel stocks so richly valued? MAR and HLT prices are crazy!
MAR surging after doubling revenues but still making 20% (!!!) less than 2019. Meanwhile the stock price is 40% higher than 2019. HLT, MAR, and H all getting their business eaten by ABNB. Huge bubble imo
i managed to resist my fomo into HLT. almost seems like they went up for marriot earnings and will probably just be flat now.
man I am going to have a very busy summer this year. calls on HLT...where ill be living till September.
yup, AFRM is also one of them. Shitty growth stock with garbage financials. Unfortunately it was one of the only ones I didn't have puts on. Instead I had puts on DDOG and it went up 12% today after barely beating earnings. Doesn't make any sense. SNOW, H and HLT on no news whatsover while the rest of the market was down. I'm hoping these dump soon
The "life ruining" part was just hyperbole. I'm pretty upset about it but now I'll go forth and inverse WSB with confidence so long as the WSB play isn't a cramer inverse. Learned a pretty big lesson on my HLT puts last week, pigs get slaughtered. Today I learned chickens do too.
I could have if I'd opted for my first instinct of RBLX puts instead of HLT puts.
On monday I was up 2.6k over the weekend from HLT puts. But pigs get slaughtered. I sold today for +$540. Fuckin hell.
HLT puts: lesson learned, pigs get slaughtered. From up $2.6k at one point to sold today at up $540. At least its better than a loss.
Got piggy, greedy, nearly slaughtered on my HLT puts on monday. Up 110% and didn't sell monday to down almost 50% wednesday. Still didn't sell, up to up 70% today and exiting tomorrow. Tomorrow looks good but whether it goes up or down tomorrow, there's no fucking way in hell i'm holding over weekend. I'm so done with options way too stressful. ^(which I also told myself the last 6 times trading options)
Post lost porn when you invest in rblx. It's an absolutely overvalued shitshow and I should have gotten puts on them instead of HLT but the premiums were too high.
Dear fucking god please yes. I was a pig on HLT puts that were at one point up 110% and nearly got fucking slaughtered when I didn't sell. I need it to drop further tomorrow so I can exit and never trade options again (until the next time I do and then repeat the cycle).
Gonna go buy one share of HLT when I get a chance. Current Price is $138ish.
So you're betting it will keep going down? I really fkn hope so. My HLT puts are absolutely fucked rn.