Reddit Posts
ETF and Market Evaluation for week of 02/27/2023
Health Care Sector Update for 02/10/2023: HILS, GSK, AMED, XLV, IBB | Nasdaq
Morning Briefing 🌞 Jan 13th 2022 - Let's see if we're correct again
2022-11-02 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
ETF and Market Evaluation for week of 09/05/2022
What’s your portfolio construction (# of stocks/sector weights/non-equities)?
Week of 6-13-22: Most Important Charts #004
Week of 6-13-22: Most Important Charts #004
Is now the time for biotech? Considering IBB & XBI today.
I'm liking NVAX - the shorts should be getting nervous
Biogen jumps 40%, the numbers behind it. BIIB IBB LABU XBI, 1:56 📰
Biotechs : Market completely missed the news of the week LONG $XBI $LABU
$NVAX: Extremely Coiled and Right At The Very End of Pennant; Likely Major Breakout Above or Below Imminent Next Week. ///Relevant Tags: $SPX $SPY $QQQ $IBB $MRNA $PFE $GSK \\\
End of quarter mark ups may happen this afternoon
Long $IBB and $LABU calls. Looking for an end of quarter push up into the close
Mentions
IBB calls looks like free money. Convince me otherwise
Thinking about buying IBB leaps 🌚
Watching, looking to buy tomorrow. VTI, QQQ, CIBR, IBB, VXUS.
not sure about the bull cycle, but you can definitely see the XBI, IBB, and major pharma index... it's already bottom up. I am personally investing in late-stage and commercial biotech, that's my sweet spot, and also a bit of covered call options in mid-cap biotechs.
Just stick to ETFs focused on HC. Think XLV, IBB, and/or VHT.
WANT MOAR? This is an exceptional setup. The data confirms we are in a rare "100th percentile" event. Here is the breakdown of the Days to Cover and Option Open Interest for the current situation (Tuesday, Jan 20, 2026). 1. The "Days to Cover" Trap There is a massive discrepancy between the "official" number and the "real-time" reality. This discrepancy is exactly what traps retail traders who misread the data. * Official Days to Cover: ~8.3 Days * Calculation: Based on the 30-day average volume (~14M shares). * Meaning: If trading returned to normal, it would take shorts over a week to buy back their 120.6M shares. This is the "danger zone" number that originally attracted the squeeze. * Real-Time Days to Cover: 0.6 Days * Calculation: Based on today’s explosive volume (~210M shares). * The Trap: Bears will argue, "Shorts can cover in half a day with this volume! The squeeze is over." * The Reality: False. High volume does not mean high liquidity for shorts. With the stock up +17%, that volume represents aggressive buying pressure. Shorts cannot cover into a buying frenzy without driving the price vertical. The fact that 210M shares changed hands and the price held at highs means the "supply door" is effectively nailed shut. 2. Options Chain: The "Gamma" Fuel (Jan 23 Expiration) I reviewed the Open Interest (OI) for this Friday (Jan 23) and the monthly expiry in Feb. The setup is even more aggressive than the share price suggests. * Total Open Interest: 347,479 Contracts * This is in the 100th Percentile (a 1-year high). There has never been this much betting activity on IBRX in the last 12 months. * Put/Call Ratio: 0.21 * This is extremely bullish. For every 1 put (betting down), there are nearly 5 calls (betting up). * The "Gamma Wall" at $8.00: * There is massive Open Interest concentrated at the $8.00 Strike. * The Mechanic: As the price approaches $8.00 (we hit $7.98 today), Market Makers are "short" those calls. To hedge, they must buy shares. If IBRX crosses $8.00, they will be forced to buy millions of shares instantaneously to remain delta-neutral. 3. Updated Squeeze Trigger Based on the volume and options data, here is the revised trigger map for the next 48 hours: | Price Level | Mechanism | Probability of Acceleration | |---|---|---| | $6.50 - $7.00 | Consolidation | Shorts try to hold here. If it holds, they pay high borrow fees (rising). | | $8.05 | Gamma Squeeze | CRITICAL. Breaking $8.05 puts thousands of call options "In The Money." Market Makers join the buying frenzy. | | $10.00+ | FOMO / Blue Sky | The analyst targets ($12-$24) become the magnet. | The Bottom Line The "Smart Money" is betting on $8.00. The volume is there to support it. The short sellers are banking on a pullback to $5.50 to survive. +++++++ The volume signature of today’s session (210 Million shares) is impossible to achieve with retail traders alone. Retail traders typically trade in "odd lots" (under 100 shares) or small blocks. Today, we saw massive "block trades" that indicate heavy institutional footprints. Based on the latest available 13F data (from Q4 2025) and the mechanics of today's trading, here is the "Smart Money" breakdown of who was likely buying: 1. The "Whale" Accumulation (The Usual Suspects) We don't have the 13F filings for today yet (those come with a 45-day lag), but we can infer the buyers based on the "Buy Algorithms" we saw active: * Vanguard & BlackRock: These two giants already own ~47 million shares combined (as of late 2025). * The Mechanic: As IBRX's market cap surged past $5 Billion today, it likely triggered "passive rebalancing." Index funds that track the Russell 2000 or Biotech ETFs (XBI/IBB) are mandated by their charter to buy more shares when the market cap weight increases. They were likely "forced buyers" all afternoon. * Heights Capital Management: * The Trend: This fund was a new entrant in late 2025 (accumulating ~6.5M shares). Funds like Heights often double down on winners once a regulatory overhang (like the FDA meeting) is cleared. Their "buy signature" is often aggressive market orders at the open, which matches today's gap-up. 2. The Insider Factor: Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong You cannot talk about IBRX accumulation without the "King Whale," Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong. * Ownership: He controls roughly 650 Million shares (~64% of the company). * The Float Lock: Because he holds so much, the "public float" (shares available to trade) is actually very small—only about 300-350 million shares. * Impact on Today: With 210M shares traded today, nearly 60-70% of the entire tradeable float changed hands. Since Dr. Soon-Shiong rarely sells, this means the available shares were recycled multiple times between shorts trying to cover and new institutions trying to enter. This scarcity is what caused the price to jump 17%. 3. How We Know It Was Institutions (The "Tape") Looking at the order flow (the "Tape") from today, we saw three distinct "Smart Money" behaviors: * VWAP Support: Every time the price dipped to the "Volume Weighted Average Price" (around $6.80 midday), it was instantly bought up. This is a classic algorithm used by institutions to accumulate shares without spiking the price. * Dark Pool Activity: Over 60% of today's volume likely occurred "Off-Exchange" (Dark Pools). Institutions use Dark Pools to hide their buying from the public so they don't spook the price higher before they are done filling their order. Retail orders almost never go to Dark Pools in this size. * The "3:55 PM" Spike: There was a massive surge of volume in the final 5 minutes of trading. This is exclusively an institutional signature (Market-On-Close orders) used to ensure they get filled before the bell. 4. The "Short Recall" Risk With institutions like Vanguard and State Street owning the bulk of the lendable shares, they hold the power. * The Risk: If these funds decide to stop lending their shares (because they want to vote them or sell them), shorts will get a "Recall Notice." * The Consequence: This would force shorts to buy back immediately, regardless of price. The borrowing fee jumping to 8.4% suggests these institutions are starting to tighten the supply. Summary of Today's Buying Today was not "Reddit" or retail traders. It was: * Index Funds: Forced buying due to Market Cap weighting increase. * Short Covering: Desperate buying to close losing positions. * Institutional Accumulators: Likely existing holders (BlackRock/Vanguard) adding to their winners now that the FDA risk is gone. The "Smart Money" has voted. They are absorbing the supply. If this volume continues tomorrow, the supply shock will likely force the price through the $8.00 barrier. Stay safe. Use protec.. i mean stop-losses. NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE. god speed.
In bull markets everyone gets a turn. That’s why understanding rotation and learning to adapt are so important. Remember how bad healthcare looked for so long? It felt like it underperformed forever. And with it Biotech stocks were left for dead. Now healthcare is one of the strongest groups in the market- and Biotech stocks are leading the way. Take a look at this three-month performance chart of U.S. indexes and sectors Equal-Weighted Biotech ETF (XBI) and the Market-Cap-Weighted Biotech ETF (IBB). If everyone gets a turn eventually energy will get its turn. Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK), which just finished October with its highest monthly close in history. Energy Sector ETF (XLE) - similar setup, but still stuck at the same levels it was back in the summer of 2008. I think it’s time will come. To survive in the market you have to adapt, or go extinct.
You're welcome, and I'm glad you're trying it! I've been loving XBI since 10/22, and added XLV and XPH more recently because they screened in for 2 ETFs I was cutting. I AM very concentrated in that area though, aren't I? But I don't look for ETFs that I *think* might do well; I simply find the ones that *are* doing well. Have you seen [how I screen on Barchart](https://imgur.com/a/etf-screening-on-barchart-G2Q5UWp)? You might need to pay for Barchart Plus to be able to do some of the steps, but the Flipcharts feature is more than worth it to me. But however you screen, **look at charts**, and look for *smoooooth*. I'll pick an ETF that's doing 'just' 2% a month over one that's doing 10% if it's a smoother ride. Because I know I can leverage that to something like 6%/month, and that's enough for anybody. And I don't have to worry too much about buying in on the wrong day and it tanks a day or three after. Because that hurts when you're buying LEAPS Calls. I just screened again, 3-month performance, Has Options, Volume >700k, then looking at 6-month charts: **XBI** was #1. That thing is up 53% over 6 months. Buy the 90-delta Call at 388DTE and you're getting 3.1x leverage after adjusting for Delta. That's huge. Silver and its miners, plus the gold miners GDX & GDXJ were next, and they're making me think it might be time for me to get back into precious metals. **IBB** was next, but of course it's another biotech. Still, 40% over 6 months, and look how smooth. Then **GLD** and other gold ETFs. Gold had a great runup since late 2023, and I caught some of it this year, but gave some of it back too after the peak on 10/20. I'll probably get back in if/when gold clears 4,200. Take care, Mike
Why specifically IBB? And not a specific pharma? Less risk?
🥭 just declared open season on pharma stocks. Short IBB. Bers r saved.
I’m in $IBB and $CRSP
Honestly, for someone in their early 20s with a long time horizon, this is a pretty solid mix — well-diversified and definitely leaning into growth while still hedging a bit. You’ve got U.S. broad market (VTI), tech (QQQ), international (VEA/VWO), and a sprinkle of thematic plays like clean energy (QCLN), biotech (IBB), and even a dash of crypto. Love the ambition. If anything, you could maybe simplify a bit — QQQ overlaps a lot with VTI already, and QCLN/IBB can be spicy, so just make sure you’re okay with the ride if things get choppy. Also, 5% in bonds (plus VGSH) is totally fine, but might not move the needle much at your age unless you're really set on some stability.
Thanks for sharing your story! Any thoughts on how AI could be used to create a pre-revenue biotech index? Possibly stripping out the revenue generating companies from a 3rd party index like IBB? The current mixes in the biotech indices of different stage companies isn’t a great indicator of the biotech IPO and preIPO markets.
Well, that’s one way to get people to ignore your tariffs in the short term. R.I.P IBB/XBI
Who here bought IBB-Biotech ETF puts?
TGTX calls have been printing. IBB down today and TGTX up on above average volume.
Those are all high quality companies. Well done. Now leave them alone, they will grow. And if a bear market comes along and takes stock prices down you should buy more. The key to building wealth is not merely derived from high stock prices. The real key is to have confidence in the companies you own and use your investment account like a savings account, regularly contributing a little money toward buying more shares. Building large positions over time is how you build wealth. If you'd like to diversify your holdings I'd suggest BRK.B (Berkshire Hathaway B shares) and some ETF's. IWM (The small cap Russell 2000 index) and perhaps IBB (Biotech) and ITA (defense and aerospace).
I think tech is dead for now until January. Low liquidity, high volatility, dispersion, high valuations all attribute to this. Rate cuts are bearish for tech and bullish for the Russell and Biotech. Long $IWM $IBB
IWM leaps. Bonus for IBB
I literally started investing two weeks ago lol. Decided to make 20% of my portfolio MAGS, IBB, XNTK and SMH. I’m down 20$ 😩
Even if it's a sector etf like XBI or IBB?
What about a biotech sector etf like IBB?
Just buy XBI or IBB if you like the sector.
IBB, the biotech index etf, is down 20% over the last 3 years. So my original comment came true.
XBI and IBB only green etf I have tracking makes me think we will have good news about interest rates I’m also probably the most bearish MF on here
You could also spread your bets by investing in a fund that includes MRNA and their peers. Funds like GNOM, IBB, & XBI are more targeted to biotech, while funds like IXJ, VHT, & FHLC cover the healthcare sector more broadly (in each group the first is global and the other two are domestic). Of course these are just examples; plenty of these funds exist with different benchmarks, strategies, and fees.
Sadly, I am very wary of the risks of small tech biocap- the risk is ridiculously high IMO. I think IBB (or some other biotech ETF) is the best option if you want biotech exposure
> "we have a monopoly granted by a patent on this drug for the next 10 years" Sounds like you want more big pharma instead of general healthcare? Best general healthcare ETF is VHT. If you want to overweight the big pharmas, then IBB, which follows the NBI index, which outperformed the S&P500 going back to 1993. If you want the smaller no revenue biotechs then XBI, which has outperformed IBB since 2007 because of the higher risk premium. If you want the risk premium without no revenue biotech then PSCH. If you want healthcare services that aren't big pharma, then IHI overweighting medical devices. I personally own IHI, XBI, and PSCH, because higher risk premium should provide higher return over the long run, and overweight biotech services like TMO, IQV, DHR, these companies are blue chip because it doesn't matter which companies get the patents, they have to use these services to get anything done.
I see. IBB is more large cap and it's at .45bps
It’s biotech, so outcomes of clinical trials are binary stock events, which is why the stock price action is “unusual”. Unless you know something about NVAX’s clinical trials or have thoroughly read up on where they stand wrt FDA approvals, you should stay away from ANY individual biotech names and instead buy the IBB or XBI ETFs.
my family got extremely wealthy because they were 100% invested in biotech and also worked in biotech. if i recall, that was one of the only industries that grew during the crash. my dad was like 100% all in on IBB and XBI
Looks like bot-generated pablum, honestly. Not a single actual data point. How much does it really improve O² sat? How much does it decrease patient ICU time? What's the complication rate of the IJ line? And yeah, I get it: this is how all biotechs work, at first. They start with a big idea and no data. But most of them also fail, or burn investor money forever. It's better to hold XBI or IBB.
I completely agree…..but change what I target. 2 weeks ago, started buying IBB and then LABU after the reverse split. I think 2024 is going to be a banner year for Biotech. 90% of my holdings are now in Mstr, biotech and energy. As much as I love tech, just can’t defend buying at current prices. GLTA.
IBB ETF that tracks the biotechnology sector in 2019 had its best performance over the last 5 years (+25.21%) Boom, next!
Could you please post this for me I have recently implemented an algorithm to trade options. I pick out of the money options on high volatility stocks and find trades with low delta. And all exit conditions coded. Today it found the trades shared below, all expiring 9/15 Any advice on any of the trades as to why you would or would not take those positions. IWM, IC, 180, 179, 198,199, 20230 GUD, IC, 173, 172, 183, 184, 20230 IBB, IC, 123, 122, 134, 135, IYR, IC, 81, 80,89, 90, MA, IC, 375,370, 415, 420, MDY, IC, 455, 450,500,505 LIN, IC, 360, 355, 400, 405, XEV, IC,132,131,141,142,202305 ALB, BC, 195, 200, 0, 0, 20230915, VNQ, IC, 78, 77, 86, 87, 20230915,
I have recently implemented an algorithm to trade options. I pick out of the money options on high volatility stocks and find trades with low delta. And all exit conditions coded. Today it found the trades shared below, all expiring 9/15 Any advice on any of the trades as to why you would or would not take those positions. IWM, IC, 180, 179, 198,199, 20230 GUD, IC, 173, 172, 183, 184, 20230 IBB, IC, 123, 122, 134, 135, IYR, IC, 81, 80,89, 90, MA, IC, 375,370, 415, 420, MDY, IC, 455, 450,500,505 LIN, IC, 360, 355, 400, 405, XEV, IC,132,131,141,142,202305 ALB, BC, 195, 200, 0, 0, 20230915, VNQ, IC, 78, 77, 86, 87, 20230915,
What do you think of these trades for today? My algo found these IWM, IC, 180, 179, 198,199, 20230 GUD, IC, 173, 172, 183, 184, 20230 IBB, IC, 123, 122, 134, 135, IYR, IC, 81, 80,89, 90, MA, IC, 375,370, 415, 420, MDY, IC, 455, 450,500,505 LIN, IC, 360, 355, 400, 405, XEV, IC,132,131,141,142,202305 ALB, BC, 195, 200, 0, 0, 20230915, VNQ, IC, 78, 77, 86, 87, 20230915,
Some of the trades it found today with high risk to reward ratio and al valid, vProId, symbol, spreadType,: 11, 0x500, IM, IG, 180, 179, 198,199, 21 ,0x230, GED, IC, 173,172, 183, 184, 20 ., 0x430, IBB, IC, 123, 122, 134, 135,20 1, 0x540, IYR, IC, 81, 80, 89, 90, 202309 11, 0xc0, MA, IC, 375, 370, 415, 420,2023 1, 0x40, MDI, IC, 455, 950,500,505,202 1, 0x180, LIN, IC, 360, 355, 400, 405, 20 1, 0x510, XLV, IC, 132,131, 141, 142, 20; 1, 0x5e0, ALB, BC, 195, 200, 0, 0, 202309 17, 0x530, VNO, IC, 78, 77, 86, 87, 202309. I have all entry and exit strategies coded
I think it might be better to cut your losses and try to get into an ETF like GNOM or IBB. Better chance of landing a winner from a basket of stocks than playing the odds on 1 or 2 names.
Biib trading halt may not be removed pre market so you can atleast catch some move by buying IBB ETF which Biogen is part of
Buy IBB or LABU pre market if you missed BIIB
Apologies if this is completely different - but I’m pretty big in “medtech” (Medtronic, Abbott Labs etc) check the etf IHI - a diversified way to get into medical equipment. IBB May be an etf more along the lines of what you are asking about though - I am just not as familiar with the companies that etf holds besides gildean and Moderna
You talking about IBB?
Look at (mostly at least) ETFs rather than individual stocks. Semiconductor ETFs are up 20%-25% year to date, but you could pick dud individual semi stocks that are behind for the time period. SMH and XLK are no brainer good choices for semicoductors and tech respectively, with both having a longterm history of solidly outperforming VOO. On the other hand, biotech does not, but if you want to take a chance on it check out IBB.
You don’t need to have all or nothing for index fund. You can have certain large % of VTI index fund and mixed with smaller % of SMH and IBB high tech future funds and FAANG. Just try to avoid the get rich quick and gambling mentality. You just need to buy good companies or growing industries which will make you rich in long run.
Well I think some things like biotech and commodities are riskier than banks in general. Banks are also risky. Not really sure why you are trying to identify the single "riskiest" sector, but you could certainly quantify that if you want. From the sector ETFs I have in my database, since 2001 it looks like Semiconductor Holders (SMH), Energies (XLE), and Biotech (IBB) all have higher standard deviation than financials (XLF). Telecommunications (IYZ) has the lowest Sharpe ratio. Consumer Discretionary has the highest return.
AI, IBB, IR, URNM, INC [the most mentioned SPAC tickers](https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/stocks/top-spacs-list). he sold? pump eeet
Anyone have thoughts on IBB? I was considering buying a chunk of it but couldn't find any discussions around it.
Yes, there are biotech and renewable energy ETFs available for investment. Some popular biotech ETFs include the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology ETF (IBB) and the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI). Popular renewable energy ETFs include the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) and the VanEck Vectors Low Carbon Energy ETF (SMOG).
For biotech there are a few like $XBI and $IBB. But you have to be careful of what's in them... some of them just have large pharma companies while others (like $XBI) have smaller companies focused on more innovative tech like gene editing. A great resource is the ETF database: https://etfdb.com/etfs/industry/biotechnology/
ICLN, REMX, TWN, FAN is renewables IBB would be my go to for Biotech.
**Bearish reaction from Fed/CPI short:** EXPE, TSLA, AMZN, COIN **Bullish reaction from Fed/CPI long:** Bitcoin (buy the SBF news?), ARKK (bear trap?), Biotech ($IBB), $XLK, Semis (NVDA?)
Do a max chart on $LABU. Then do a max chart on $IBB
Why not just get like IBB or XBI if you want that play
Every day I have BarChart send me an email of all ETFs that have weekly options and are technically rated either 100% Buy or 100% Sell. I'll cull them further, eg based on volume, juiciness, etc. Then I'll sell an appropriate 1 or 2 week spread, or sometimes a wide strangle. The last few days the only ETF they listed 100% Buy was IBB. I sold a wide strangle on that. Their most liquid 100% Sells were LABD and USO.
For me there were two reasons I did not do that. First is you typically pay fees to own them when in theory you could buy the individual stocks at the same proportions and not have to pay fund managers. Second is when you own that many companies you'll inevitably have some duds that will drag down the returns of the winners. My investments are based on ETF's of whatever sector I want to invest in but I try to pick the best performers, an all star team if you will. This requires more due diligence and you are exposed to more downside but as long as you are picking quality companies your returns will beat the ETF especially with a long time horizon. For example, if I wanted to invest in Healthcare I would look at the top holdings of VHT, XLV, IBB, etc and look at their top holdings. The companies that manage these ETF's have a lot of people that are a lot smarter then me so if I see the same names coming up over and over I figure they are worth investing my time into researching deeper. Of those companies I'll pick my top 3 and determine buy points for each and set alerts. I hope that makes sense
very good thinking, you need to buy the bonds directly, get the short term ones when yield ~ 4.5% put some in TIPS if you in the US, $10K allowed per year at ~ 10% i would sudgest you receard and see if you have appetite to add Biotechnology to the overall porfollio, look into XBI or IBB etfs, ive hear alot of smart people projecting that to be the next "tech" boom like was past 20 years.
LABU underlying etf is XBI. It doesn't follow IBB
Very funny that I was just looking at IBB put volume
# Tickers of Interest - TL;DR **Gamma Max Cross** * [MRK](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#MRK) 12/16 97.5P for $2.00 or less * [WYNN](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#WYNN) 12/16 67.5P for $4.65 or less * [JBLU](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#JBLU) 12/16 8P for $0.50 or less * [AFL](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#AFL) 12/16 65P for $1.35 or less * [PSTG](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#PSTG) 12/16 31P for $1.90 or less **Delta Neutral Cross** * [XLF](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#XLF) 12/16 34P for $1.00 or less * [UBER](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#UBER) 12/16 27.5P for $1.15 or less * [NEE](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#NEE) 12/16 80C for $1.80 or less * [JWN](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#JWN) 12/16 20C for $1.75 or less * [IBB](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#IBB) 12/16 129P for $3.95 or less # Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today. This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0. For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals. The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV. # Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle * If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open. * Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. * I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in. * The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. # FAQ - Because others have already asked. * These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? * No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. * Are you entering all these plays? * No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn. * You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean? * The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not. * Where are the crayons? I only see words. * Click the links above. * Have you back-tested this? * Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error) * What is the historical performance? * The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.85 with a 67% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 49% and 72%. (Stats as of 2022-10-28)
I figure the way I get screwed by my healthcare costs maybe I can getna little "back" from them 😆 Yeah I also have some LLY. I might add a little IBB.
Weakest sectors at the open $KWEB (-3.9%), $SLX (-1.8%), $IBB (-1.4%), $XLK (-1%)
right, but i think the original commenter was referring to IBB specifically since that's the only one you posted a pic of originally but even then, the dow also doesn't look the same as it did in july
in the pic you posted of IBB, that is NOT at all how it looked in july, that is quite obviously a bear flag forming
Just buy IBB. The only knowledgeable investors in biotech are pharmacologists who can actually read the studies. Everyone else is just guessing (or just short right before findings are released. Most biotech trials fail and are priced like they are going to succeed.)
So IBB put volume today is bullish?
Bullish engulfing weekly candle on SPY QQQ DIA IBB, why TF would you short?
IBB next leg up, let's gooooo
personally, i would look towards battery tech, cloud computing, semi-conductors, and maybe even biotech (i believe IBB is the ETF for biotech)
IBB Jan 2023 calls. Need those to hit.
Wat, look at IBB and any biotech. High beta is rocking
Caught the exact bottom on IBB and it’s been a nice ride but I’m getting out tomorrow
I agree with you. I track the short selling in IBB and the data in the chart below shows the Total Shares Shorted in the past 5 years. It is very different from Total Short Interest in that this data set includes both EXEMPT (market maker) and NON-EXEMPT (everyone else) short selling. You will see that 44.20% of all trading volume is short selling. It should not exceed 25%. The VWAP of the Total Shares Shorted is $133.30. When price exceeds that level all the shorts are out of the money and a squeeze can begin. [https://www.buyins.com/images2/ibbstr6-24-22.JPG](https://www.buyins.com/images2/ibbstr6-24-22.JPG)
The fed backstop is gone, all summer long into the fall. Liquidity draining consumer confidence drained, oil showing no let up. Russia not showing any let up, housing getting crushed. So why would it go up for more than like half a day? Other than dumb algorithmic " buy the dip". Anything other than continued falling is absurd. Short SPYG, ITB, IBB, etc
Biotech is the cheapest it has been in five years. XBI is down 40% for the year and 46% year over year. I'm doing a calendar spread using LEAPs. IBB is also down. XBI gives a cheaper entry price and correlates well with IBB but not exactly as IBB has more big cap biotech exposure. I have a list of individual stocks as well that I am monitoring that haven't ripened yet.
Not a scam, but it's not cap weighted. It's going to be volatile. Contrast it to IBB for a cap-weighted biotech.
Let’s pump IBB today and tomorrow. Let’s knock this thing out of the park.
XBI or IBB. IBB a little less volatile.
IBB is on a downward trend since September 2021. Consider holding out for a consolidation base (and signs of sector being back in favor) before committing. If you always manage to pick the lows, you are committing too early and one chart break to the downside will set you back loads.
Back on the Bio train. IBB is plenty cheap and there will be consolidation.
What is the strike and expiry of the puts? It’s on IBB correct?
The ticker is IBB. It is IShares NASDAQ biotech ETF so not an individual company. But i got a very big hunch
i have, I do see the holdings are trash. especially compared to IBB holdings in same industry. yikes though, a reversal could hit those shorts hard. light volume.
> EXAS Biotech sector has been pretty brutal. Almost all of it is down big. Only reason I have a position in ARKG/IBB because there are so many companies that don't have full grasp what they do, but believe the field has potential.
If you can't pick one company, there's an ETF: PSIL. Long-term, the future is tech. That doesn't mean tech is a great buy right now. Once the dust settles, the long-term trends are probably going to be green energy, robotics/AI, and biotech. Biotech (XBI, IBB) has actually fallen enough to statistically be a good buy, but the macro environment and technicals certainly don't look good.
For the first time in a long time, I’m considering buying long dated calls on XBI or IBB. Am I stoopid??
Got GILD, GSK, AMGN and IBB up all week in the middle of all this and not a peep about it anywhere. Freakin me out a little
I’ve had poor experiences with IBB