IP

ObservationalHumor

This is literally Musk's playbook and has been for years. There's some existing industry that Musk and his employees have minimal to no experience in. Despite that there will be huge pronouncements about how every incumbent is doing everything wrong, how Musk's company will do it so much better that everyone else be left decades behind due to SpaceX/Tesla/xAI having such the smartest people and vague bullshit about 'the iteration rate on innovation' and potential sci-fi technology that might make it work if it all pans out. Inevitably it'll undershoot and disappoint but it won't matter because he'll be promising the next big earth shattering thing of even larger magnitude is a year or two away. They'll quietly terminate absolute failures of products and promises under the guise of needing factory space and staff for whatever amazing product they've got in the pipe. At this point too Musk just has a ton of money and most of his big hit successes have largely been from spending enough money to getting resources to just be in someone else's way and either buy himself in that way or collect a fee for really doing nothing of any particular value. Great example is xAI, no one gives a shit about Grok but that doesn't matter because Musk had a ton of money and funding and manged to buy up enough GPUs and deploy them to start making a ton of money off Anthropic instead. Tesla is more an example of what I was talking about earlier. Model S and X didn't push them to proiftably, nor did the Model 3, it was the Model Y and that was largely accomplished not by having some super automated robot factory but by getting sweetheart deal with China, which probably ultimately cost them a lot in terms of technology transfer and IP theft. But it allowed them to make a lot of money due to short supply chains and exports to Europe for a while and that was enough to declare the company a roaring success. Solar Roof? Dead at this point and leading to a ton of lawsuits because the design sucked and water intrusion is a huge issue. But it served its point to allow Musk to acquire and wind down SolarCity and avoid being associated with a high profile failure he promoted. S and X? Dead. Failed to compete in the luxury market when more options from other manufacturers became available. CT? Epic failure that was just terminated. Supposed to sell millions, put the F150 out of business, demonstrate world changing manufacturing techniques that never materialized. Sold less than 100k units and a good chunk of those were to other Musk companies. Margins have cratered and in the latest quarter were largely boosted by frankly dishonest accounting around tariff refunds. FSD is already being monetized to some degree and margins are still under pressure as R&D spending has shot up too and grid scale storage has been supplanting actual auto segment growth for years as those margins fell back to reality post-COVID. Starlink has done well for SpaceX but ultimately isn't competitive with terrestrial fiber, they just significantly hiked US prices making them even less competitive going forward. Musk managed to get the Trump administration to slow roll the roll out of rural fiber and 5g funding though which allowed for plenty of time IPO SpaceX and probably get a few years of decent growth for other stuff to hopefully pan out. Enough time for him to merge Tesla and SpaceX too, which will almost certain require him to spin off Tesla's China business now that domestic growth is slowing there due to competition. US cellular will give him another set of durable assets with real value and an income stream to continue big R&D products in the hopes of eventually striking gold. I'm sure Musk will promise that Starlink V5 or whatever will make terresterial fiber infrastructure completely obsolete, lower his company's cost to be a small fraction of their competitiors and secure the fattest of margins for the next 20 years for that too. If that doesn't pan out he'll be promising something else, or finally end up getting prosecuted from abusing the hell out of forward looking statements and misleading advertising, or just OD from his increasing use of recreational drugs and whatever Joe Rogan approved collection of hormones, peptides and nootropics he's taking in an attempt to stave off aging and his own mortality.

narutoaerowindy

Chinese are fking useless other than IP theft.

I_SLEEP_NORMALLY

Reminder techies: If someone who is too hot has taken an acute interest in you, and you work for a company with lots of secretive IP, they are probably a spy.

zitrored

This is what I don’t get. What fucking secret would he divulge to anyone? I don’t care if you are getting laid by a super model, that does not mean you are divulging IP about your company. Only thing I would consider is whether or not she was trying to get priority somehow in chip orders. That’s possible I guess.

prolemango

Because he is the leader of one of the most influential companies in the world and if he is being coerced by foreign agents that’s a matter of not only internal company matters such as trade secrets and IP but legitimate national security

forsythia_rising

This guy is gross and obviously not well suited for a CEO position. I wonder how much IP/trade secrets he passed over for a BJ?

tempthrow9999999

Just wait till China invades Taiwan while US military is severely weakened by the stupid Iran war, they Cina will own most of the world's IP on chips , kaboom chip market

Expensive_Box_3417

I know that, you think he just out there spilling IP to a side chick😭 is that what you do?

SomePolack

Catching the NVDA bottom not a bad move tbh They’re not going anywhere as industry leader because of this unless he really did give China IP

ImPinkSnail

Wouldn't it be wild of this is the embarassing cover story to explain how secret Nvidia IP and Nvidia chips subject to export controls ended up in China. It's like shitting your pants on the traffic stop to get the cop to let you go because you don't want him to find the body in the trunk. Janssen could have been selling this shit under the table and making billions.

ConsistentRegion6184

Tech is more difficult. The IP, branding, scaling. Financials are almost 100% reactionary money in contrast.

BenchCommercial7833

All West Taiwan does is steal IP and cry victim when called out on it. Idk why so many people think the market will give a fuck this time lmao

XCaliber609

I think the affair won't directly affect stocks much short term like people think. Nvidia is too big to go to zero with something like this, or even the full AI bubble popping. But I think everyone here is missing the big long term picture. Nvidia is not going to go the lehman brothers route of going bankrupt. More likely is if it has to fail it will go the AOL/yahoo route of being outcompeted by something new. And when the biggest threat of this something new is coming from China, and the ceo is banging a Chinese spy, that doesnt really incite confidence. Just imagine a world in which china figures out Nvidia level compute and euv lithography in like 3 years (idk how far they actually are im just making up a date). While nvidia is completely reliant on external foundry time of TSMC or something, China can just press the big red button on its manufacturing machine and flood the market in a jiffy. 50k boards will sell for 5k or 500 even. The biggest threat to Nvidia is china. I never understood why Jensen was so keen on doing business with a country with a proven track record of stealing IP (tesla and chinese evs). I guess now it makes more sense.

tdogger88

It was about export restrictions to China, not Nvidia chip IP.

RoomLord

I apologize for that glitch. Here are the full parody lyrics for Jensen Huang's version of "P.I.M.P.": (Intro) Yeah, walk in the data center, what up? It's Jensen, standard leather jacket on. They want the architecture, but they ain't getting it. Yeah. (Chorus) I don't know what you heard about me But a spy can't get a single chip out of me No code, no schematics, no H100s, you see 'Cause I'm a tech-industry P.I.M.P. I don't know what you heard about me But she didn't get a single byte out of me No nodes, no designs, no secret AI decree 'Cause I'm a tech-industry P.I.M.P. (Verse 1) She came into the office trying to act real sweet Asking 'bout the Blackwell design on the sheet Tried to look at my screen while I'm sipping my tea But I lock down the mainframe with triple security She was looking for a leak, looking for a backdoor Trying to download the source code right off the floor But I caught the USB, told her "Nice try, dear" We don't do IP theft over here this year I'm a self-made billionaire, leader of the pack Got the CUDA ecosystem keeping us on track She was fishing for the secrets, fishing for the plan But I'm the top dog running Silicon Valley, man. (Chorus) I don't know what you heard about me But a spy can't get a single chip out of me No code, no schematics, no H100s, you see 'Cause I'm a tech-industry P.I.M.P. I don't know what you heard about me But she didn't get a single byte out of me No nodes, no designs, no secret AI decree 'Cause I'm a tech-industry P.I.M.P. (Outro) Yeah, security cleared. Take that wire out of here. Nvidia stays on top. Gigaflops on gigaflops. We out.

LazyLobster

Because he was fucking a Chinese spy and could affect IP of the most advanced AI chips, wouldn't be surprised if the stock gets some volatility from this. For example, did she seen roadmaps of products, was she ever alone with his company devices, etc. IT professionals get scared at some idiot clicking links in an email, imagine a trained spy compromising your CEO and getting close to possibly company devices.

MrP67

Ever heard of Nortel Networks. People might think the Chinese spying on Nvidia means nothing, but they are masters of stealing IP and copying it.

IMovedYourCheese

Every big tech company has this as part of its training. "Buddy you're an engineer. If she's into you she wants your corporate IP."

kieferwaight

Something's not right about thier numbers and it looks like they have a lot more operational leverage and asset control than they report. It seems like they are trying to isolate the models and intellectual property under one valuation. That's all they are offering to the public but they are building out a massive infrastructure under different names. Anthropic started moving assets off their books when they gave $50 billion to Fluidstack.io https://fluidstack.io/news/fluidstack-selected-by-anthropic-to-deliver-custom-data-centers-in-the-us The Pentagon also signals $5 billion to Fluidstack.io https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=27049599 Then Google gives $1.3 billion https://investors.terawulf.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001083301-26-000166/0001083301-26-000166.pdf?utm\_source=chatgpt.com They separated every aspect of the business into different companies. One owns the land. One leases the land. One operates the equipment. And Anthropic just runs the model. Fluidstack manages the construction. They use different companies and setup land rights all across Texas. Here is an example of one location that has all of the fluidstack operational team currently sitting in Lubbock waiting for the permit approval. It's documented in an SEC filing https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1083301/000110465925102858/tm2529509d1\_8k.htm?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse\_little-text-block&utm\_source=chatgpt.com It's for 1.3B and matches with Googles investment. It maps out how the land ownership and who the partners will be. So after the market takes the loss. Who comes in and buys the model and IP at the dip?

SporksInjected

“I’m so close to leaking IP” 🫨🥴

palindromic

Your CEO: No IP My CEO: Ships big PP IP overseas

FullstackSensei

They're anything but helpless. This view is why the west is slowly losing to China in pretty much every field. Western automakers laughed off their Chinese counterparts 15 years ago, look where they are today. Same happened with western robotics firms. Sure they bought a few key players, but they have far surpassed western countries in robotics in the years since. Having physical access to a machine doesn't mean you can easily reverse engineer it. There's still a ton of software IP you can't get access to, which is really where the 20 years of R&D ASML spent are. Those machines need to be online and talk to ASML all the time, from ASML white-listed IP addresses. Despite what the US administration has said, ASML has repeatedly said all their EUV machines are accounted for, with known locations. So, even that claim that China has somehow smuggled a machine is questionable at best, for all the above reasons. You don't need to steal a machine to build a replica, assuming you have the supply chain to do it. That's not even a trade secret. ASML had been talking about these machines for literal decades before they got them to work. What China is actually doing is building a domestic supply-chain for EUV, everything from the precision optics (which Zeiss does for ASML, and Zeiss themselves rely on a deep supply chain in Germany for that), the nano-second pulsed lasers, to all the precision piezo actuators that need to handle the extreme accelerations and weights involved, while maintaining accuracy. China has already demonstrated a research-scale EUV light source, made with an entirely domestic supply chain. This is about where ASML was in 2012 or so. They have all the money they need to fast track development and close the gap in half the time or even less vs ASML.

TickTockTaudit

I would like to make it clear to all the very petite and incredibly hot Chinese spies….I have trade secrets and access to IP of top American firms and will never reveal these secrets unless I’m subjected to weeks of professional level BJs.

Big-Classic-860

Anthropic essentially has possession of the world’s IP. It can become whatever company it wants because all the companies in the world have been feeding it all their trade secrets. Anthropic can be a mega consulting firm that does everything if it wants. Not worth the valuation but what do you value something that can literally become anything (if we feed it compute power)

Open_Pollution_8038

META RDDT MU TSMC NFLX PLTR Few hardware names in there but the AI race is going to shift hard to locking down media/content companies. It’s the streaming wars right before the platforms consolidate and everyone grabs data/IP.

Reaper_1492

That’s true but it’s going to be hard to get to that step because every company is going to have to be willing to traverse the chasm where you are spending more on AI than human labor, but still have all your humans (like Anthropic is doing now). The main issue is what the other commenter mentioned, if they aren’t profitable at these rates, then I don’t see how they can ever get there. I use it all day long, but I can tell you that if they 10xed the token costs, our company wouldn’t be interested. It’s also an extremely dangerous place to be as a business. Anthropic, or whoever, basically has all your IP. You laid off most of your people that may have been able to use AI to spin a unique competitive advantage, and now you are 100% reliant on Claude to provide that competitive advantage - when it’s giving that same information to everyone else that asks that same question. Not to mention that with all that knowledge, your LLM provider would make or break your margins, and they would have enough information about you to turn the screws as much as they wanted. I really think you’re going to see a lot of corporations go to self hosted models once performance gains between flagship and open source plateau. There’s too many reasons to not give up that much control.

ThirdWaveCat

i'll wait until their LLMs have a plan to make a profit and IP hypocrisy is ironed https://preview.redd.it/c07qluuz6zzh1.jpeg?width=844&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=08a17b950a799e91ae805fd91700771d11e5cae6

grizzyx

Wrong, people hate generative AI because of the resources it's consuming. IP stealing is a minor factor in the "hate" of the general public. Maybe you should pay attention to the news.

nerevisigoth

"Stealing IP" is a ridiculous argument. If you read a bunch of books and get inspired to write your own, you don't owe anything to the authors you're drawing experience from.

MesmerizerLIVE

Data centers have been around for a long time. Even "AI" has been around forever. People hate generative AI because it essentially steals people's IP and they have been told over and over that it is going to take their jobs.

buckingATniqqaz

Its not about the resources, its about the design of the algorithms for teaching these models. The US has the best computer scientists. China will always just copy our IP

Requirement_Fluid

Open AI and Anthropic IP will end up being owned by the likes of Google, Amazon, MS, Meta, Nvidia and AMD

Kepler___

Major differences the the two IP's though because using frontier AI means handing over private data via prompts to companies that have been, for the most part, wildly irresponsible, while office didn't pose any security risk other than user frustration. Local models are going to be very attractive for anyone handling patient data, sensitive accounting or legal data and want to keep those records completely in house.

Moto-Musashi

China will subsidize any and all their industries against any other country’ company products. They will steal IP and know- how and to develop more competitive products. Add to that the low cost of labor, and the promise of access to a billion consumers and all companies went there and shared their trade secrets. There you have it. And then, when we need antibiotics, antivirals, etc. they can charge whatever they want and take as much time as they want to deliver because we don’t produce here anymore, so we have no options. The tariffs were actually a very good policy to bring manufacturing back.

BorealMushrooms

> open weight models get stolen right out from under the US means we have created the most expensive vaporware in history. They were all ultimately trained on stolen data anyway. Live by the sword, die by the sword. Now the US AI companies want their IP protected, even through it was all built on stolen data to begin with. Comical and ironic. Chinese capitalism (state sponsored capitalism) is the most efficient kind, and the Americans will soon figure that out, whether they want to or not.

Neat_Egg_2474

Even worse - we produced NOTHING here. Sure, frontier models are cool, but the fact open weight models get stolen right out from under the US means we have created the most expensive vaporware in history. This type of regulations is literally exactly what the big AI companies want to put them in a moat and protect their IP. Anyone who says that AI companies don't want regulation are truly delusional. Just ask the automotive manufacturing companies about their government regulated moat. If this is truly a bubble burst then we should see in a month after the S&P retracts another 10-20%

blainehamilton

AI will still be around. The Nasdaq will probably halve in value to 10000-12000 when this is all done. Most of the AI companies currently with over leveraged positions will disappear. A few of the biggest tech companies with gobble up the IP and continue. The correction started a month ago. The ball is just really starting to get rolling now. Next is a lot of cancelled data center projects, token prices thru the roof, AI adoption cost reductions, loans being called, cancelled IPOs, and a slew of bankruptcies. Maybe a crypto coin crash to a tenth of current values as well just for good measure.

omgimdaddy

First wan packet switched network with TCP/IP protocol, developed by the dept of defense…. You know darpa is part of dept of defense which is part of the military right? Your take is so disingenuous. It is the foundation of the modern internet.

thisisillegals

What regulations? They literally load up their models with stolen IP without and sort of legal restraints.

East-Response6672

Not only do the AI companies not have a moat, their products have destroyed the moats of a lot of other companies and destroyed a large percentage of the value of the internet as a whole.  Search doesn't work, social media is just bots doing competitive astroturfing, security is a nightmare and I can get a Chinese chatbot to generate a pretty convincing knockoff of your IP without engaging with any of the companies that nominally own it.  I feel like they tried to do a smash and grab of the valuable bits of the tech economy, did a really good job of the smash part, then their trousers fell down and they ate pavement before they could carry anything away. Now they're just laying in the wreckage with all the valuables on the floor for anyone passing by to help themselves. 

Equivalent_Fly_5559

Anthropic IP-NO

zaevilbunny38

So Lego is their best seller and it's a flat deal then per unit. Other then that, the best sales are at theme parks for limited merchandise, that is for an already will buyer. They need new IP to turn out new toys, cause sales at stores have shrunk. Just look at the collectable aisle at your local Walmart. It used to be a 20ft section, now its 8ft

ManBearPig_1983

They should, but they have no independence from our AI industry. It’s all copy cat. If we slow and our IP slows, they slow because they have less to steal.

NewSubWhoDis

Original IP isn't limited to theatrical. You want IP that resonates and then reach audiences through every delivery vertical.

zaevilbunny38

I mean I can look at their product catalog and see why. W How do you mess up an IP like Star Wars that bad?

coffeeanddonutsss

However, original IP does move the needle over the long term, and that territory has been barren for quite some time.

Flumples

He’s not wrong about usage IP but you’re absolutely wrong about them making money. We can double the cost of everything and still make money hand over fist, people are happy to pay it.

AgitatedStranger9698

Nobody can afford your parks. You screwed up billion dollar money printers with Marvel AND Star Wars. How do you do that?!?!?! Literally you own every great IP except the Justice League and Harry Potter. And your competition has no CLUE how to use them. I do not understand Disney. My best example: Where are the Marvel toys? Im shopping for my kids Christmas planning it out. Wtf?!?! Do better Disney.

noiserr

AMD has had a lot of difficulty. They were in serious trouble from 2011 to 2016, but they bet the company on Zen and turned it around. It's really amazing what Lisa and her team were able to do. Now they have the best datacenter compute IP in the industry.

Glum-Cash3869

overheard an H1-B at work today sending company files to his friends on Signal. "pee-dee-ef" "jig-ah-buyt" the entire IP of the US is cooked bruh

ThinkingOfTheOldDays

there have been reports lately that S&P firms view the frontier models stealing corporate IP as a risk, and many are bringing ai models in house and customizing. still pretty good for the compute providers to my knowledge, but doesn't seem good long term for anthropic and especially openai

yoortyyo

RFC 1149. - IPoAC. IP over avian carriers. Latency and falcons are bad. Throughput with modern storage is insane.

WrongPurpose

That is true, and absolutely not important in any way shape or form. It is not about the Technology !!! Its that the economics of the entire thing dont work out! Thanks to destilation, the "Leader" is only a "Loss Leader", with everyone else getting to catch up 3 Months later for 5% of the costs, and thereby can then undercut the Loss Leader in every way. And then 1 Month later the Open Free Models catch up. So your Mote is what? Spending 50B a year on training while the competition spends 2B? Good luck with that. Open Weight Models mean you as a company can cut out the Middle Man and directly rent a few racks of H200s from Azure/AWS, without paying Antropic or OAI, and not have to worry about your propiertery IP ending up in OpenAIs training set (that Navier Stokes story was an absolute disaster from the Buissneses Side View!) and then 3 Months later at your competition. And if you spend 100s of Billions, you have to pay interest. Interest on 100s of Billions can bancrupt even very profitable Buissneses if interest rates go up. Your profitable Buissneses will still be there, it will just belong to the Bank, instead of the Stockholders. And once the Neoclouds start to go bankrupt, thanks to rising interest on their debt, and those Warehouses full of uninstalled AI Acceleratators (waiting for the Datacenters to be build) start ending up on EBay to recover the debt, you will start seeing competition who got a rack of B200s for bargin bin prices and offer them cheaper than you can with your expensive brand new H200. Nvida will buy out the first few to keep their margins up, but will not be able to do that indefinitely. So it does not matter that the Intelligence is great, because the only one really able to monetize it is the one selling shovels.

Glum-Cash3869

too many H1-Bs all their IP is in Banglapur

ascourgeofgod

yeah, much more to fall. They can't deliver those dreams or fake promises. They only want to enrich themselves. I know people working in AIs, their whole interest being there is to ride the IP high into weath without doing anything useful.

dorkcicle

Buy all, take free IP & take it private.

Paddington_the_Bear

As long as you trust where your companies IP is going.

Luxferro

Yeah, same here. Most of my browser bookmarks are old forums I used to frequent. I'm not sure the last time I used my bookmarks or cleaned them up. I can probably delete them all. I use Reddit daily but that doesn't mean it's special. It's just the most common platform for talking about hobbies and interests. I used Google+ before Reddit and before Google killed it for the same thing - hobbies and interests. I'm not here to make real friends, become famous, or anything you find on other social media platforms like Facebook or X where popularity and seeking attention are what drives the platform. Reddit can easily be replaced once someone comes up with a better idea or a way to improve the faults with Reddit. People are here because its simple and has pretty much everything. Theres no IP that makes Reddit special. The voting thing was kinda cool, but it's been looking exploited by bots and no lifers with multiple accounts.

Spezalt4

And all of the years of IP theft.

Traktion1

It is a good point, but I suspect it will encourage other business sectors to try to evaluate output in a similar way. There was a time when most software had little or no automated testing. Big firms had QA teams where humans would manually verify everything. Smaller teams just winged it. It was observed that automating testing led to faster software production, with fewer bugs. I suspect there are many industries that may find value in emphasising the evaluation phase. It may not have been economical before, but if it leads to delivery speed improvements now that we have AI, it may become beneficial. While claude code (or alternative harnesses) are geared towards coding, similar harness development into other areas may help. Some may be derivatives of the same core (MCP tools calls and loops), but the heuristics and specialisms may be restructured. We don't yet know what this could look like, but if we accept claude code is designed for coding, it is possible to imagine other specialisms. Ofc, this doesn't mean anthropic or openai are needed for this. Open weight models and harnesses may flourish in lower value areas. Areas where privacy and IP concerns are an issue too. I suspect AI may become too embedded to want a private US company in the middle of it all. Using MS and Google stuff is already getting scrutiny and I doubt the EU, China, etc, will want more dependencies. So, I predict an open stack will become popular. Open models, open harnesses, open MCP tools, etc. Cloud may remain popular for complex sessions, but I expect ever more capable, smaller, desktop AI to do the bulk of the lifting in the future.

thedarkpath

Do they have any IP whatsoever ?

br0ke1

Increasingly common, feds are always finding VPN+laptop farms to get a US IP for NK workers

livingbyvow2

Tbh, if OpenAI goes bust because they cannot keep on running / ran out of cash flow, they will just be reabsorbed into MSFT (who owns all their IP) while Anthropic's competitive position will likely allow them to continue being OK. Ant isn't that bad, they barely burned any of the cash they raised since founding.

MaybeLiterally

OP, being pro AI on 90% of Reddit is only going to result in downvotes. I'll agree with you, mostly because people are missing some key components of what makes Anthropic valuable: The things that AI will create for them. Bio is going to be big: [https://www.anthropic.com/research/agents-in-biology](https://www.anthropic.com/research/agents-in-biology) The idea here is Anthropic would patent the discoveries and license them for a cost. Labs will be here as well: [https://www.anthropic.com/news/introducing-anthropic-labs](https://www.anthropic.com/news/introducing-anthropic-labs) So don't think of it as JUST the model, there are 4 other major US companies that are making frontier models, the real way to make money is create the frontier model, use it internally for a number of months to produce discoveries while you're adjusting it for public use, and then when internally there is a new more capable model, release the previous one and continue to make discoveries. OpenAI is doing this as well. Don't get me wrong, the API, along with the public harness will be the main breadwinners, but keep an eye on how they're using the intelligence to create IP that they can make money on. Imagine if Anthropic managed to create a new and novel human insulin for diabetes, and since the cost to discovery was lower, they're able to sell it for much cheaper than current treatments. The value there is astronomical. Look at the bigger picture, and the potential opportunities. I will concede that the possibilities are theoretical, and we will need to see if these discoveries actually happen, but investors aren't looking at what it's doing NOW to make an investment decision, because you'd be right it's hard to justify a 1.5T valuation. Investors are looking at the next 5-10 years of potential. THAT, for many, justifies at least a 1.5T valuation. You might not think so, and that's fine. These stocks aren't for everyone.

PrinsHamlet

This. He's obviously terrified of local inference. And he should be. Local inference isn't about raw compute power alone, it's also about flat rate costs, IP concerns and privacy that is of high concern to my employer, I know for sure. And local doesn't mean "5% of the time.". Obviously there'll be private clouds and different model routing tiers available and multiple user per compute unit. It's not all local or all (super vendor) cloud.

silicon_replacement

The more you use cloud AI, the more it will steal your IP, so mathematician have to work with local AI

ConejoSarten

Also there is a tiny problem with paying to give away all your company know-how and IP to a thing specifically designed to make sense of all that huge context. Tomorrow these pirates will copy you company effortlessly and they will say it’s fair use

peanut-britle-latte

This is less of a problem than you think. IP law only applies to the final product. I can't create a search engine and call it google search. The code itself, the for loops and all that- is all net new.

Ancient_Wishbone_806

I’m really curious how IP works if software is developed using LLM what’s stopping someone from replicating software ? Does every line of code get reviewed ?

unwieldybowling0175

competition from china and india is definitely something to watch but 75% cheaper with only a 10% performance hit feels like a stretch anytime soon, the r&d and fab access alone are massive hurdles the taiwan IP angle is the one that keeps me up though, that’s a whole geopolitical mess that could flip the table overnight

NappyDougOut

You mean for freely collecting, firewalling, & then monetizing all our posts, then severing any record of us ever posting our own content & IP if we get banned for any reason they want to make up? Like Twitter already does? Yep, terrible idea. Might break the camel's back, purely on legal grounds alone over time... 🤔⚠️

feivel123

* The future is open weight models. Not because they are cheaper or anything, but because sensible companies (and sensible governments) do not want to hand over all their IP, customer data, product data, research data etc to frontier labs, so those labs can steal their work (millennium price anyone?), train on their data, leak their data or even hack in to their systems. Any company with any IP or data worth protecting will want to run local AI under their own control, even if that AI is marginally less capable. I think with good it sec, this should be no concern. Beside why would a company hack you that makes money out of you? Your argumentation could also apply to all the foreign administrations using Microsoft products.

moorhound

CRWV's debt structure is basically designed to let them be picked apart by vultures if they don't make numbers. OpenAI is set up in a somewhat similar fashion that will let Softbank and Microsoft do the same to their IP. This dude is spot on.

Last_Succotash7218

I'm on so many accounts they managed to ban a SPECIFIC phones IP and would insta ban me when I logged into. It's always the trainees that get me banned. I don't even try to spell it right at this point I figured out the special no no word

Cheeky_Star

He’s here reddit.. get his IP!

WickedSensitiveCrew

Thanks. I’m not on any controversial subs. I mainly browse Survivor/Big Brother, sports, stocks, and, before I got banned, r/news. The only thing I can think of is they carried over an IP ban. 10 years ago I was a more prolific poster like had 4-5 million post Karma and constantly had things go to the front of that sub. That might have been somewhat controversial now that I think about it. Here are a couple of examples: https://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/6g4u0p/900_high_school_students_in_georgia_groped_by/ https://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/6az44b/high_school_ends_antidrug_program_after_parents/ https://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/6xdx8a/lesbian_couple_win_10000_damages_from_county/ But I did lighthearted threads too: https://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/8uvotk/mystery_person_buys_1m_worth_of_remaining_toys_at/ That account first got permabanned from r/news without a warning. And then the entire account got banned because I posted on porn subs before Reddit went and banned those subs and the people who posted on them. It was accepted back then, and Reddit just banned it overnight. But even then, that shouldn’t carry over to a new account years later. That’s the only thing I can think of.

WickedSensitiveCrew

Thanks. I’m not on any controversial subs. I mainly browse Survivor/Big Brother, sports, stocks, and, before I got banned, r/news. The only thing I can think of is they carried over an IP ban. 10 years ago I was a more prolific poster and constantly had things go to the front of that sub. I forgot some of the threads I posted back in my prime in those days lmao https://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/6hr6qr/fake_architect_named_newman_busted_in_operation/ That account got banned because I posted on porn subs before Reddit went and banned those subs and the people who posted on them. But even then, that shouldn’t carry over to a new account. That’s the only thing I can think of.

GobbIaOnDaRewf

Well I’m fucking IP banned and it works for me so, weeehhhh

samwichse

Remember when Intel sold off their StrongARM/XScale IP in... 2006? It's like they hate money over there.

Travis---Beckmen

I would never post there for one. Number 2. Based on RLXs algorithm.   Your user profiles IP address frequents the above sub weekly.

ViralTrendsToday

FYI, the bans are not just IP level anymore, reddit specifically is Wifi based.

Furdiburd10

Actually IP bans / ban evasion checks are only for 3 months at max.  Why on earth do they encourage making a new account if you get "perma banned" is a good question. 

auravolt_

You ain’t fingerprint banned. You need to rotate your IP address

prime_alki

They use mix of IP address and Device identifiers

KenBisky11

Got a 7 day ban for violent words when I didn’t say anything close to that. Had to appeal and for the first time ever they actually lifted the ban and apologized. Couldn’t believe it. Reddit also IP bans you, so if you ever get a perma suspended account you can’t ever use it again to comment or like things unless you set up on another device.

Itismytimexxx

Don't know about login IP addresses but one thing for sure if they can find ways to monetise it they will

cultoftheclave

such an obvious hit piece that falls apart on close inspection. what a surprise, early iterations of the technology had a slightly higher long term failure rate than they predicted. As if anyone seriously considers frontier AI hardware having a lifespan longer than two years anyway. The other chipmakers are clearly afraid of being boxed in by CBRS which has already claimed the only die growth territory they can expand into and are going to ramp up efforts to strangle it in its grave so they can buy its IP for pennies.

bslaven3

I know a lot of folks that pay for it, so I'd lean towards yes. My wife pays for it for her company and I can use her Chat GPT for no extra cost. She just gives me access and I create my own folder. I wonder if they will start limiting IP address logins like Netflix did where only 1 IP address can login at a time.

greenpride32

I am bullish on all, recently added DRAM, and long time holder of AMZN, MSFT and NVDA. If you were to give me the choice, you can be all in on DRAM or, all in on AMZN/MSFT/NVDA at equal weight, and cannot sell for 5 years, I'm without hesitation going with the latter. Ther latter group's success is driven by IP and products and services that you could potentially replace, but at lesser quality. The former group is selling commodity products and just taking advantage of bidding war markup to create their margin. One of these models has already created decade or decades of dominance. Other is riding a roller coaster of supply and demand dynamics. Now I'm invested in DRAM because the party isn't stopping for the next 2-3 years and potentially even more. But the underlying strength (or lack of) of the company is the reason why you see different valuation scale across the 2 groups. I plug RAM or storage into industry standard socket/connector and it works, doesn't matter which brand and it's equivalent performance. I swap NVDA AI GPU for AMD AI GPU, and well I lost 2 decades of CUDA advancements, and the very framework on which AI was developed past decade.

Jeff__Skilling

Going to go out on a limb here and assume “stealing IP” = using the internet to train their LLMs — that sound about right?

A_Credo

Those machines are made by ASML and are run by installed by ASML. ASML doesn’t want to sell to China because they will steal their IP. And to be clear, China stole/piecemealed an EUV machine back together and hired former ASML to help them reverse engineer/build it. So yes, China does in fact have an EUV machine. Again, please do two seconds of research before talking. You sound stupid.

Puzzleheaded_Owl1308

Let's set aside the likelihood of an AI bubble pop for a moment, because Reddit has already beaten that horse to death many times over. If you hold individual stocks, especially smaller-cap tech stocks, that is a legitimate risk. If you are invested in the biggest names that also have huge advertising revenue, those will likely be fine. In all likelihood, when we see an AI correction, it will mostly affect smaller tickers that outpace their cash flow. That will cause a dip, but if those companies have a genuinely good product, their IP will be snatched up by Google, Amazon, whatever, for pennies on the dollar and the market will continue chugging along at a more modest incline. The dip will seem scary while it's happening, but with your timeframe most indexes or top names will forget all about that speedbump a few quarters later.

Coolgrnmen

I guarantee you someone bought a ton of IP with Super Intelligence tied to it so that now that it’s “required” it has more value

bleakvirgil3337

yeah but even flat is fine if they keep paying dividends and buying back stock, the value thesis here is not just price action. the IP alone is like a floor under this thing, no way pokemon or mario become worthless in the next decade

DefiantTelephone6095

Yeah, I see similarities, the internet created huge value and people saw that so bought in, just as with AI. The issue was that they bought in to "internet" companies. AI is similar, it'll create huge value for humanity, but it's unlikely to make huge value that these companies can take, because the IP can be copied so easily and then sold much more cheaply / as open source.

ResortMain780

A few more points. * Revenue growth has been impressive, no two ways about that, BUT, 1H includes the absolutely idiotic token maxing era. Extrapolating perpetual exponential growth based on that is a big mistake. * Token maxing was 'invented' by Anthropic's largest share holders, which includes Amazon, Microsoft, Google and nVidia. Companies that stand to gain 10s if not 100s of billions from this IPO. Coincidence? * LLM model capabilities seem to be on an S curve, not an exponential one towards the singularity. LLMs have been trained on every bit of training data that exists; without fundamental break throughs, improvements are becoming increasingly marginal and stem from mundane things like hardcoding/prompt engineering as well as increasing compute resources. This is a dead end. Its even plausible LLMs will get worse over time, as they are increasingly trained on their own slop output thats being spammed on the internet, eventually leading to a model collapse (ie "goblins"). * Frontier labs have no moat. They are on the hook for 100s of billions of spending, but tomorrow another AI company could develop a better/cheaper LLM and customers will switch in a heartbeat. * The future is open weight models. Not because they are cheaper or anything, but because sensible companies do not want to hand over all their IP, customer data, product data etc to frontier labs, so those labs can steal their work (millennium price anyone?), train on their data, leak their data or even hack in to their systems. Any company with any IP or data worth protecting will want to run local AI under their own control, even if that AI is marginally less capable.

Ok-Basil-9473

medical IP plays are the kind of dice roll that keeps me here, $DAVI looks like it could actually hold some weight if that acquisition is legit. $NEXR at 65 cents with a $6M deal is interesting but those AI business sales always feel like a 50/50 shot on execution

jamesrggg

For the IP, not to run it, and because a lot of big tech companies make a lot of stupid buyouts. Look at Micro Slop buying up so many game development companies just to lay everyone off.

letmeinfornow

So I was deep diving this early this morning. The valuation is completely unrealistic in any way outside of the hype. The debt is not fully and properly acknowledged. The 2025 comparison to a partial 2026 is very misleading, in my opinion deliberately to bias inexperienced share purchases. I want to see exactly how they are treating IP assets (may have missed this) and obligations tied to those assets, their valuation, etc....specifically retired models no longer generating revenue. The use of SPVs give me Enron vibes and concerning. Future obligations are fixed which creates inflexibility for planning for economic shifts and with the market drive to develop improved smaller LLMs for private/local use not an ideal choice for a market shift that is likely....also explains the drive to push for regulation. No single one of these concern is a deal killer (except may the moronic valuation). The problem is there are red flags everywhere. Many of these flags have been visible for some time (organizational behaviors), but what we are seeing in the IPO data drop creates a plethora of red flags. All of this give me vibes of sheer incompetence combined with desperation. They need cash. They are either unable to drum up any more cash from private investors due to their size or due to what investors are seeing (or both). While their revenues are impressive, 25% anchored to 2 large whales is concerning; what happens if one of those whales decides to shift to ChatGPT or if they develop in house tools using locally run models? No idea who those investors are (has this been released anywhere, did i miss it?). If the economy falters and revenue decreases, scaling back operations does not help them with the future obligations for compute hard set; their options become lay offs (limited) and reduce research, development, and new model releases, minimum impact in the grand scheme of things with serious potential negative impact to future revenue, or raise prices, a serious potential negative impact to current revenue. The use of SPVs really bothers me, likely more that it should, but I watch what happened to so many in Houston when Enron imploded because of exactly this type of sheltering of debt. It is legal generally speaking, but if not managed properly and legally can be a serious trap that is hard to unwind when it goes bad. All of this reeks of amateur hour tactics. So with all that said, what I see happening..... Huge blowout on stock sale. All the fanboys use all their milk money to buy as much as they can, some even leveraging what they shouldn't. Serious investors do an initial buy and dump and then back away slowly or don't touch it at all/limited purchases. The stock falls to next to nothing. Matters little to Anthropic because they got their initial offering cash, their war chest to survive at least for a while. The stock will get folded into retirements and other funds because thats just how it works. Anthropic survives for a few more years but there is a clock ticking....they will not be able to pull this off again. Now here is the real problem. The IPO maintains that the current owners retain 50.1% of stock. Stockholders have no say in how Anthropic is run. This creates a serious problem. All of these red flags are driven by Anthropic leadership and as I have said, seriously scream amateur and desperation. Shareholders will have a stock that may end up with valuation a small percentage of what they paid for it and no recourse to group together to shift the organizations direction, especially initial purchasers. This is a potential time bomb for them and those that hold Anthropic's debt. Personally I will avoid Anthropic stock till I see some of these red flags cleared which will require time and transparency.

StrikingMajor8488

> AI will operate at a loss until they've succeeded in obliterating independent judgment. Your personification of "AI" here completely ignores the fact that China exists. The Chinese open source models bring to local servers and personal hardware everything what OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, all of the seething US based BigTech wants to gate-keep from the public while stealing all the IP created by humanity without any concern just to enrich themselves, all while wringing their stubby overfed fingers. This won't work as easily and effectively as the Uber and Amazon model that you are talking about, since people will still have viable options to download the latest and greatest(ish) stuff for free from Chinese companies who are being much more "open" than that parasite OpenAI. Unless China takes a call to stop sharing, but why will they if they can one-up these US companies while eating their cake?