IP

BlackPlasmaX

Boomer companies run by boomer people and a ceo from the parks division thinking hes now a tech guy because he pitched the partnership with epic games. When have you last seen disney last grow something organically targeted towards boys and men without buying something over a billion dollars? And then see something like star wars run into the ground with cheap spinoffs? They are a bloated legacy company imo, anyone who buys into disney is destined to lose money on opportunity cost. Its the same price it was like 10 years ago lmao. Gaming IP and interactive worlds are the future, Disney has shown to be completely incompetent in that department . They fired game developers only for WB to snatch that talent up and have them create Hogwarts legacy, one of the best selling games that year.

mayorolivia

If it was that simple they’d be competing with Nvidia etc right now. They don’t have EUVs and access to other western tech and processes to be competitive. It’s very similar to the Soviet era when the Soviets were always stealing American semiconductor IP and yet were always 5 years behind.

breck

IP law is completely irrational and will go away someday. Downloading movies as simple files is so superior than streaming. That being said, the market can stay irrational for a long time. And Netflix could always pivot to a more honest business model (selling something real/atomic rather than IP ("Imaginary property"). I wouldn't short it, because of that last point, but I wouldn't be long Netflix, as without a pivot its success depends on the world remaining backwards regarding the human right to copy.

machyume

Instead of lawyering up and stopping people from generating their IP, maybe they should simply allow AI generations from companies for a price.

Interesting_Ghosts

I love Disney as a company. I love a lot of the things they’ve made over the last century. I am bearish on Disney in the long run. 1- Disney still sustains its entertainment business off ever shrinking TV and Box office money. Every year there is more and more content to compete against which devalues theirs. I do not believe streaming will ever be even 10% as profitable as TV and DVDs were. 2- Disney has a massive costly infrastructure that is hard to scale back on while keeping up the quality of its content. 3- the younger generation doesn’t care about Disney as much as the 30+ generations. In 20 years will anyone want to see another Star Wars spinoff or Toy Story 12? Does anyone under 30 even know what Mickey Mouse is other than a logo for the company? 4- Disney missed many opportunities to pivot their IP and power into other forms of entertainment like gaming. Disney could have been the American Nintendo if they had played it right.

VancouverSky

Because they have crappy and unconfident leadership? The same reason Netflix is so flaky with their content commitments? The fact is, if a show drives good ratings and subscriptions, any company will invest in making more of it, they monitor their meta data with an incredible amount of precision. Thats why we have 10? completely unnecessary Need for Speed movies, because that IP absolutely prints cash. This is hollywood 101. In an alternative universe where 1 million people opened up a new or renewed a fresh subscription and IMMEDIATELY turned on and watched the entirety of the Acolyte, Disney would pump out a second season to keep them around. But. That. Didnt. Happen. Instead it had a steep mid season viewership drop off. Because the show was expensive to produce slop. It's not that difficult to comprehend, regardless of my opinions of Disney's production quality. Bizarre that you think the opinions of X posts are driving Disney's lackluster ratings. Lol. That is mega cope and implies you think quite low of the average TV viewer. Like they can't judge a shows quality by themselves.

Open_Pollution_8038

I don’t like Apple because $20B of their profits come purely from its Google licensing deal. With google.com become less and less as a way the world searches for data, I can see Google telling Apple to kick rocks eventually and that’ll make Apple’s margins plummet since it’s pretty much free money. Apple has fallen massively behind, their device have no AI IP of their own and I can absolutely see a future where people don’t pay Apple a premium for devices that do less. Tim Cook sat on his ass for years and didn’t come up with any compelling products beyond earbuds and a watch. The core product sucks now.

dabirds1994

Eking out some earnings beats doesn’t overshadow some big problems. Its big IP is struggling. Where does its future growth come from?

Disastrous-Fun-2958

Exactly. Bagholder here … 3 issues: 1) Using expectations is rearward-looking, markets look forward and company forecasts are meh, 2) In a really hated sector (Commo), 3) Leadership has been lame since the end of the FIRST Iger tour and there is no decent successor in the succession plan. Oh yeah, Disney keeps making really bad movie choices that really pisses people off (remember the latest Snow White?). Forget about IP getting stale, they just continue to cannabalize their own brand.

kotsumu

Missed op honestly, they have so many princess IP to monetize

FloridianHeatDeath

To begin with, they don’t own Spider-Man. They split the profits of any Spider-Man movie. Even if they did own Spider-Man, you don’t sustain a company the size of Disney on one IP, no matter what that IP is.  Live actions have been hit or miss. Star Wars is so dead they’ve been afraid to release another mainstream movie for it.  Marvel has been almost consistently losing money or at best breaking even since Endgame. Iger saying their Ips are getting stale is one of the more competent things he’s said.

InquiringMind14

I sold my Disney stock a while back when cruise was highlighted as the growth engine - versus creating new content. The CEO was promoted within from park - so, strength is translate IP to customer experience. The issue is there are not really new IP. So, he can milk the cow for a few years with sustainable growth questionable at best. This is different from Apple (promoting Tim Cook). Apple was already the innovation leader - so innovation is less important than operation excellence. Disney issue is the opposite. They are already the operation leader - they need innovation.

Blahkbustuh

I was starting to think about Disney stock in the very late 10s then the pandemic happened. At the time Disney was like 1/3 parks, 1/3 cruises, and 1/3 media. I never got around to investing in them. (I'm currently 39, so I was a kid in the 90s when they had their renaissance and saw movies like Aladdin and on in theaters.) I don't know what they are up to or doing but think about it--traditional media and films haven't recovered and are in a time of great turmoil/change having been interrupted by streaming. Streaming is killing traditional TV and even movie theaters, and it's not extracting more revenue out of people than cable and movie tickets did. Also talking about TV Disney benefited hugely from cable TV and that's going away. They had the Disney Channel of course, but also ABC and ESPN. ESPN collected money from everyone with cable who had it in their cable package which included a lot of people who otherwise never watch sports. The parks are maxed out. They're already charging as much as they can for as many things as possible while cutting the whimsy and it seems like the company would have to build new parks in new locations to expand parks revenue at this point--like Texas or other warm places, somewhere in South America or the Middle East or Asia? I think there are Disneylands in China and Hong Kong but then that means China has them by the balls (and also China controls what movies are released in China) rather than them building it in Singapore or somewhere more normal/Western-business friendly. Cruises are meh. Is there a big untapped market of cruise-goers? Can you monetize a cruise more than they are currently? (I haven't ever been on a cruise and have no interest in them.) Also if we're going into a recession type environment, entertainment is a place people are going to decrease spending and Disney is an entertainment company. A big concern I have is when they bought the remains of Fox's media, Disney became like 80% or more of films in theaters. They can't release any films to theaters that don't cannibalize something else of theirs. If they released one children's film per month, it'd eat the tail of the previous one, for example. So they can't simply release more movies. Outside of the pandemic the last few years they've sort of lost their way. The old CEO, Iger, was the guy who bought IP rather than created it, like Pixar and Star Wars. Then the company tried to replace him with an accountant type and that sucked a lot of the charm out of the new attractions they've been building the last few years. Then people started talking big smack about the parks and how the fun and wonder is gone because basically the accountants took over. From what I've seen on the internet, Universal has done a bang-up job with Harry Potter Land down the road from Disney in Orlando while new Star Wars attractions have been mid. People hated Eisner for some reason but at least he let the creative people be creative. It seems like Disney can't figure out what it's supposed to be right now and it's trying to do too much and so not doing anything well.

Level_Counter3062

Surprising China isnt the #1 stock market. They steal all of our IP for free and mass produce everything barely paying people. You'd think they'd be worth hundreds of trillions like a 1980s villain or something

MemMori

Yeah, IP fatigue with a Spiderman movie that is on pace to break box office records. And with another highly anticipated Avengers movie coming out later this year.

Mattyj925

Yup on a Disney IP (part of the same IP you referred to being forgettable) where Disney gets 25% of the box office and 100% of the film’s merchandise proceeds

Singularity-42

Right? This sounds like a giant waste of money. Metaverse, anyone? Just make actually good games with your IP, geez!

Go48memes

Interesting, last week I subscribed to Michael Burrys newsletter, he had the sentiment that Netflix produces no long term generational IP like Disney or others do. And he needed to see it go lower to start buying it.

-sakuranbo

I think most enterprises prioritize data retention (i.e. company IP doesn't get stolen) and audit logs (i.e. employees don't use their work accounts for personal projects). Another important thing would be contracts. e.g. at my current workplace, there's been a push to experiment with Anthropic models, but the CTO office has a deal with OpenAI and it'd be a waste of money to switch off oai models before that contract expires. We did evaluate DeepSeek at one point and decided against it, but only because they explicitly train on your input tokens (and say so in their usage agreement). Lastly, I know a handful of startups that are using models like GLM 5.2, and some of them, to achieve high throughput, even adopt Cerebras-hosted GLM 4.7 and serve directly to customers. EU businesses are often anal about data sovereignty and demand processing done not only in the EU, but in their specific slice of the EU. Mistral serves this niche very well, even though next to nobody in America knows or remembers about them.

adriensama

Amfn doesn’t keep plasma continuously in suspension that’s their IP win. Pulsing plasma ignition like cylinders firing hence “fusion engine” and magnetic confinement

DinosRus

Fully missed the self hosted part. The U.S. isn’t the only country on earth that can produce IP mind you.

Open_Mushroom_4813

Mind articulate what is the actual threat and potential theft of IP of using an open weight model vs using a private model from companies that just got settled from IP theft allegations?

CryptoBoy-007

I do not think this is how it works. Not when the level of threat and possible theft of IP is that high.

illnotsic

I think you’re missing may be missing my point, there are rules and regulations that companies must abide too, especially at a global and political scale. If F500 company has business that deal with US Govt interests, there are laws that we must abide to when it comes to data sharing with US adversaries, in their eyes, it’s a big no no when we share significant among of IP and data to foreign counterparts. You can argue about American capitalism and how unfortunate the general consumer are, but I’m just speaking from a logical perspective on how F500 companies approach situations like this. That’s why they pay the lawyers at major tech companies the big bucks. But go off gang.

valderium

If you're suggesting IP theft, American LLM companies are already doing it: 1. Anthropic built Claude Design while in a partnership with Figma 2. Apple is suing OpenAI Karp raised the concern rather publicly.

Sassy_Bandit

It's peak "ooh look at me I'm such a cynical free thinker" shit. I always just picture the "billions must" wojak saying it. Like ok, what's the actual thesis and position? What's the moat? (pun not intended). And even if I do grant there is a "water" play with an actual moat, have you factored in political risk? In what world are people desperate for water, but "shareholder rights" are still given primacy, and IP laws are still respected? Without a moat we're just talking about utilities. Same mistake people made with Solar, thinking that buying any given Solar company meant buying the *concept* of Solar.

Few-Chemist-3463

I suppose the moat would be the customer base + data center infrastructure. Not saying they're worth 1T, but they have extremely valuable talent working for them + IP.

cuteman

China doesn't obey data protection or IP laws. Nor do they accept reciprocal economic agreements as clearly obvious by their companies doing business in the west but banning western companies inside their borders.

throwawayafterisay20

I am thinking of buying some, in tried the Unhinged game they released and its kind of cool. In think if they can generate more content like this in more genres they have a good growth opportunity. I know Amazon has something similar but I think with the right IP and creative team this could be a great new strategy for them. I’m not a savvy investor I just buy stock in companies that make things I enjoy and hope for the best 😅

Little-Derp

Definitely a combination of no longer being about IP, and being about ever increasing profits by way of increasing prices (while getting less value from said subscription).

Infield_Fly

Subscriptions are finite and even more competitive now. They need to hit big with original IP that they can merchandise and there's not confidence from investors that they're worth the risk at the moment.

Todo_Toadfoot

Wow these are awful comments. It's super simple and everyone has these nonsense things about corporate blah blah. It's simple it CANNOT be the thing that survives to the end. Because it never owned the thing it was selling. That's why it went batshit crazy trying to create its own IP heel over fist. All the things it originally sold are now sold by the actual entities that own the thing now. It only gets worse from here. There is no confusion.

CutFabulous1178

How many people here still subscribe to Netflix? What MOAT does Netflix have? What amazing IP does Netflix have?

CaicedoBrickWall

Let's see here. How about going on a business trip. Winding down and watch little Netflix before bed. Then the app tells me to go fuck myself because I'm not at home and I've been away from my home IP too much. And I'm the only one who was on it. Cancelled my account that night. Now that I found out I can just torrent on my phone.

Gmonkey-

They were overvalued. Also, they don’t have any good IP unlike Disney, WB, Paramount

CyberSmith31337

They failed to make a bunch of new hits. Their gaming initiative was a complete disaster and failure. Their HR/Recruitment is just poaching and cycling washed up has-been an and nepobabies, and paying them ludicrous amounts of money to fail with zero accountability. They have no pulse on what their audiences want, despite all the data they have. They can’t find niches to conquer. They kill popular shows in the cradle, and greenlight actual dogshit at seemingly every opportunity. (never forget what they did to the *Resident Evil* IP) Stranger Things Ended.

Jester_Hopper_pot

Cost keeps going up and they don't have any IP worth paying because everyone has their own now and they have no way to get the catalog of Disney, Fox, or other without huge spend

OwnYam932

Nobody has the right answer. Which is that they dont have a next big story. You dont seem to understand. Stocks do not grow when they make money. They grow when investor feel they are getting it cheaper than others. Why do you think the big oil and big tobacco and big garment with stable business dont skyrocket similarly. Thats because They are already operating on max.. Nflx has already sold its membership to most of the target market. When they came in, they were the only streamer kid on the block. Now all of media houses and IP creators have their own platforms. So NFLX cannot get cheap content. One thing which might have worked was using AI to bringing down content production cost. But that is again a margin increase, not a substantial revenue beater. If you have sold to all of your potential users, you need new planet to sell and earn better.(little hyperbole, but kind of reality)

Danger_Dave4G63

Have you not be following along for the last few years. They raised the price multiple time. They stop people from password sharing. They limited accounts per account. They started banning it at least stopping your service if someone else logged in at different IP. So if I share an account with my girlfriend and she goes and visits family in another state, when she logs in it will cut her service until she logs in back at the house. Since they raised the price multiple time, people got pissed. So they released a cheaper version with ads. How many people in the last 5 to 10 years canceled their subscription. Especially when the other serviced like HBO, Disney, etc started up. I cancelled back in 2018 or something. Gonna be the next blockbuster. They don't have value anymore.

Alternative-Suit5541

Geo Block everything outside you don't need.  Block with a firewall IP list the crawlers  Block with cloudflare  That's what I do, traffic is down line 99 percent  It's insane

Extreme_Lab_2961

Why does Reddit get to own my IP, especially since they aren’t paying for it?

imustbegthequestion

Any one got niche news? I need a reason to save Portugal and not short IP.

Top-Positive6537

AIMn on watch Expecting to close on the acquisition of the IP with a $10m valuation this week.

GoldenPresidio

How do you sell this business with all of that IP

Dazzling_Exercise_82

It has more to do with the the vacuums collecting real time telemetry data "the exact size and layout of your house, occupancy and any and all audio" back to a Chinese cloud server. There are so many products that are already doing exactly this "baby monitos, IP cameras, streaming sticks, modems" are a few examples of the Chinese government subsidizing these products so the manufacturerd can basically sell at a loss with the final intention of sending valuable personal data back to Chinese cloud for the government to use.

Infinite100p

I find it hilarious and gratifying that he thought he can just pay his way to innovation by throwing cash at it, hired all these big AI names on eye-watering comp packages and... has hardly anything to show for it. Where smaller AI labs are out-doing his results despite Zuck having zero ethics and stealing IP (Meta was literally caught pirating millions of books from torrents for their training pile) and using our data without our consent. Zuck has been either stealing or buying out ideas for decades, never innovating himself, and now it's not working for him so good. Rooting for his downfall. 🍿

Curious_Associate904

Nothing is permanent, but the investment banks will protect themselves at the cost of individual investors, which means, we lose, they're fine, and a bunch of IP goes to a bunch of other companies, just like how Nvidia got fat off 3DFX patents.

miata_only

Artificial intelligence is set to revolutionize the wood pulp industry powerhouse companies like International Paper $IP could be massively undervalued, you guys

rainburrow

Not if you hadn’t created a paper trail by tying your IP address and email to a reddit post explicitly detailing how you’d come across non public information

WordsHappenedHere

Full porting in the middle of a head and shoulders, with broad weakness in all semis. Yea, you belong here. I mean SNDK is a company actually with no real IP. It was $45 this time last year.

DabblingInIt

The 0.01% of people working in the industry and the vast amount of related industries or the large amount of people invested in the hottest corner of the stock market thats been showing some major flags of weakness? Or the nearly 100% of the population that are consumers to products that contain chips? How about the world population that's under the curtain of various domestic and foriegn military offense and protection? But its no big deal that the closest alley of a country we're at war with, who has a very delicate relationship with the worlds leader in semiconductor manufacturing and inovation is increasing their ability to manufacture stolen IP, ITAR, and top secret components of weapons systems? Uh-huh.

BackstrokingInDebt

I would make a distinction between portfolio level data and security level. I’m not using MS for security because…no one has good research for the public. Those are protected IP for buy sides. I use it to track and monitor my portfolio risks and MS does a good job since fund data is their bread and butter. Things I get out of it \- my major risk metrics: stock/bond/cash mix, country and region mix, sector mix \- fund look through capabilities: etf and funds are broken into individual securities \- weights after look through: things like “you hold 3% in NVDA through all your funds combined”

ShortNefariousness2

Didn’t the USA tech companies seed their models using stolen IP? You hypocrisy is so obvious

Sea_Local2557

it's actually less than what netflix wanted but they only wanted the studio and IP without the TV shit

Benromaniac

For real. Apologists for Tesla’s high valuation cite IP, but Toyota get little credit in this regard. It”s bloody silly. In an era of maximalist valuations Toyota is a priceless structure

Benromaniac

For real. Apologists for Tesla’s high valuation cite IP, but Toyota get little credit in this regard. It”s bloody silly. In an era of maximalist valuations Toyota is a priceless structure

vandalizethethief

They do things behind the scenes. Remember the Apple car but unlike most other automotive startups they realized it was a shit idea with terrible margins. All these mega corps for R&D & moonshot projects. Just like Jobs stole the mouse and keyboard idea from Xerox now OpenAI basically hires all former Apple employees and steals Apple's IP on a Mac like a bunch of morons. With Jonny Ives involved we'll get another ugly ass Ferrari.

DaySecure7642

Oh dear, this kind of propaganda-like gaslighting again from China. "We are not competing with you', "win win situation", "fair and free trade", while in practice, doing everything dirty aiming at monopolizing the markets, like selling below production costs, forcing IP transfer for market access, stealing IPs, ignoring patents, sanctioning the raw materials of other countries. The formula is similar in most industries China dominating now. When will we wake up to such deception.

Direct-Lynx-7693

I think the main play here is bullish. Nintendo is transitioning from a gaming company to an IP management company. So it begs the question, what is the value of their IP? I would argue it's some of the most valuable IP in the world. We didn't grow up with Mickey Mouse and Cinderalla. We grew up with Mario and Link. Those background sounds from Mario are as recognizable as Michael Jackson's songs. Their IP transcends generations and will only continue to permeate deeper into the consciousness of the general population on a first-world global scale. How do they leverage this to make money? We are witnessing the beginnings of it with their push into film, merch, and on-premise amusement. I think as time continues we will see a greater and greater percentage of their revenue come from their push into utilizing their IP. I think a lot of investors haven't fully realized this so there's a discount. They also pay a nice dividend for the time being so there's that. 

shadeland

> brand, It's a brand in decline. > IP Not much there anymore. They're a consumer electronics company that takes Sony sensors, a battery, a SoC, and puts it in a box. It's not trivial, but other companies have been doing it. They have a codec that no one really uses since it's not baked into hardware like ProRes, H265/HEVC, AV1, etc. >stabilization tech It's good, but so is DJIs and Insta's. Stabilization tech isn't all that hard. > rugged hardware Not difficult to do so no competitive advantage > and camera platform for AI/computer vision Sony makes the sensor, and a consumer action camera is not a good "AI sensor", whatever that means. > drones GoPro tried making drones and they fell out of the sky. They blew something like $300 million trying to make it work and they have nothing to show for it. I think they even sold their drone IP. > robotics They've absolutely nothing to do with robotics. > defense use cases Their terrible financials would preclude them from any military contracts I would imagine. They've no money for R&D. So outside of a bulk order for consumer non-certified action cameras they're more likely to make coffee makers than anything in defense. > more important as sensors, Sony makes the sensors. The biggest issue I think is Nick Woodman. He's a terrible CEO and he's seen GoPro lose 98% of shareholder value.

lucideuphoria

Uhh didn't Tesla/Elon make all of the IP open source on purposed so that other car companies could use the same technology?

Level_Counter3062

CQQQ will be the QQQ of the future just watch, while we burn all the capex on RND and development they will wait and steal the IP and mass produce it

MeesterWeen

I have seen them, and yes they are doing innovative things and selling them cheaply. And also they stole a lot of their base IP from Tesla, as is well documented.

MeesterWeen

Not ford. They repeatedly stole IP from tesla. https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/resident-china-sentenced-24-months-prison-conspiring-send-leading-electric-vehicle-companys

Samjabr

I'm not saying SKHynix does or doesn't have a retarded valuation - but the narrative that the Chinese memory maker CXWT might be a threat is pretty fucking retarded. I'm pretty sure they are at least 10 years behind on nm processes. FFS, they are still using 19nm and are trying to get to 5nm by 2029... Even the retards at Intel were using 14nm by 2014 and the other Asian behemoths used 19nm in 2012. CXWT is so freaking far behind. But, I guess the Gynese are good at stealing IP [https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3360208/chinese-chip-start-aims-build-5-nanometre-equivalent-chips-without-using-euv-2029](https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3360208/chinese-chip-start-aims-build-5-nanometre-equivalent-chips-without-using-euv-2029)

GroundbreakingSir386

You’re right that shit was fire. There’s so many things in HBO and paramount, WBD that could be sold for hundreds of millions. Plenty of great IP that I’m sure Amazon, Apple, Netflix would be gobbling up

Zef-Daytrade

No China cant make copies, that has an IP license/tech, that and US banned export of those exact same tech to create a replica machine. In other words they had to innovate to not use the US tech that cant be imported.

GreyBoyTigger

They have a storied history of stealing IP and making a way worse version of it

myjumboloanapp

Reports are gyna is making homegrown EUVs. Thankfully they never out produce and undercut competitors they’d never do that. We can always accuse them of stealing IP and whatnot if they do

throwthrowaway100

The Whipsaw fault interpretation is the key here. If that intrusive system really got offset into different structural blocks, then each block could be a separate target. But magnetic anomalies don't equal mineralization. Where's the soil sampling? Where's the IP?

pigeon_shit

Doesnt Netlist own the IP though?

Street-Corporation

Memory fabs can’t just be conjured up overnight. There are only a few players with the resources and knowledge to deliver. DRAM is not what’s driving the scarcity, it’s the HBM which is extremely difficult to design and must be designed closely with the chipmakers ie they have to share their IP to build it. This is a bad take.

Waluigi_Jr

I’ve considered selling. They’ve been destroying IP value with Star Wars and Marvell fandoms aging and diminishing. ESPN sucks. I can growth in the parks as in person experiences regain popularity due to digital exhaustion. Also they’re in a sweet spot price point to keep attracting the upper middle class & lower rich. Was really hoping Netflix could have bought WB, financials be damned, cause I loved the idea of owning that IP with their distribution both as an investor and consumer. Just rambling here so I’ll wrap it up by saying I get it, but I’m gonna hold a bit longer.

humptheedumpthy

Not sure why you’re getting downvoted but Toy Story is doing well and Disney still has incredible IP.  They need to fire some morons though who think a live action Moana is what audiences want 

GarageEven5240

If you take the position that Disney has unique and universally appealing IP, and you also take the view that technological progress causes disposable incomes to increase globally over time, then the growth story is that as people around the world get wealthier, they'll buy more Disney products. Of course that's also basically the argument for VT, with way less concentration risk.

glass_wheel

And so, the ultimate merger that will finally fix media by making an IP juggernaut, even though this has never worked in the past, is once more delayed. The delays are also silly, I think if all of the old studios combined into a single Old Studio, consumers still wouldn't be starved for choice. Both sides of this fight seem to think it's still the 90s.

greenpride32

WBD was \~$10 before the buyout noise started. If the acquisition does not go through, you're likely looking at 50-60% equity loss. The company is not doing well financially, and only has "value" due to desirable IP. So you're risking \~20-25% gain sometime in the future versus a potentially much steeper loss.

GongTzu

The IP will be sold in batches soon to fund this mess

AndrewHolyMan

They are a law firm which owns IP. They “audit” all of their customers to make a large chunk of their money

Fission-235

I would love to see them do this! That would create some very interesting investment opportunities! Everything but China would be a winner from an investment standpoint. And then they would be less likely to steal our IP in the future 👍. Well, as long as we go about managing our overseas manufacturing partnerships very differently.

valderium

IMO Architecture encompass the entire stack: infra, llms, enterprise. It's going to require a reorganization of companies across all domains to validate it. I think execs (Dimon and the folks he talks to) thought they were getting AGI and the goal of hyperscalers was to get to AGI (META really wants it). I think Karp is also sharing that LLMs are priced like AGI but it's not. Worse, you're also losing IP. I think labor wage gains do compress as human capital (ugh, hate that term) is required, but the gains just aren't there. I think better architecture/paradigm to get to AGI is needed and hyperscalers aren't required to get there today. I think the c-suite was thinking AGI happens with massive scale and if it doesn't, then LLMs are good enough. Except they are crazy expensive. So shareholders are going to be left with public utility-like components of a business that was a cash cow with crazy margins before

DrElkSnout

what in the fuck happened with International Paper (IP)? What the fuck?

vasja_peredul

# 1. The Misunderstanding of Object-Oriented Programming (OOP) * **A Naming Regret:** Kay notes that he coined the term "Object-Oriented," but clarifies he did not have languages like C++ or Java in mind. He believes the term was a mistake and that it should have been called "Process-Oriented" or "Message-Oriented." * **Focus on the "In-Between":** The industry became obsessed with the internal structure of objects (the nouns and verbs). Kay argues the focus should be on the *messages* passed between them (the spaces in-between). * **Objects as Virtual Servers:** An object shouldn't just be a data structure; it should act as a "universal simulator" or a completely encapsulated computer. Every object should ideally have something akin to its own IP address or URL. # 2. Biology as the Ultimate Metaphor for Scaling * **Scaling a Doghouse vs. Growing a System:** Kay uses the analogy that you cannot simply scale up a doghouse to build a cathedral—the engineering principles break down. Similarly, traditional software construction methods do not scale well. * **The Cellular Model:** He points to molecular biology, noting that a biological system (like a baby growing from 50 cell divisions) scales by a factor of trillions. Cells work together by communicating through membranes that keep the interior separate, never directly sharing their DNA. * **Growing, Not Constructing:** He argues that we must transition from *constructing* software (like building a Boeing 747, which cannot grow) to *growing* it (like a living organism that doesn't need to be taken offline for maintenance). # 3. The ARPANET/Internet Success Story * **A System That Never Stops:** Kay highlights ARPANET (the precursor to the Internet) as the model for future software. It expanded by eight orders of magnitude, replaced every single physical atom and line of original code, and never once had to be taken offline. * **Applying the Macro to the Micro:** He stresses that the architectural metaphor of the Internet is exactly how we need to approach what we currently consider "smaller" programming tasks. Treating programs as "small" is precisely why modern software becomes so bloated and unmanageable. # 4. Critiques of Modern Tech (HTML and Browsers) * **The "Dark Ages" of Data Abstraction:** Kay heavily criticizes the path the internet took with HTML. He views the idea that a "browser" must natively understand rigid file formats as a massive step backward—calling it "one of the worst ideas since MS-DOS." * **Dynamic Negotiation:** Instead of rigid standards and browser wars, Kay envisions a system where objects over a network can dynamically *discover* and *negotiate* what each other can do by prodding and poking one another, rather than relying on brittle interop layers like CORBA. # 5. Meta-Systems and the Evolution of Ideas * **The Importance of Reflection:** He praises LISP and meta-reflection as the "Maxwell's Equations of software." A system without a meta-system is fundamentally handicapped in its ability to adapt and cope with complex, changing environments. * **Obsoleting Your Own Work:** Kay notes that Smalltalk was originally great at making previous versions of itself obsolete. He urges the audience not to let current, incomplete knowledge become a "religion" and leaves them with the advice to "Play it grand"—to aim for revolutionary leaps rather than settling for incremental tooling.

valderium

IMO Architecture encompass the entire stack: infra, llms, enterprise. It's going to require a reorganization of companies across all domains to validate it. Dimon and Karp are highlighting the core issue: management in America does not know how to use AI. Example: ***Coca***\-***Cola CEO*** James Quincey cited ***artificial intelligence*** as a factor in his decision to step down. They don't know what it can do and they don't know do to carrot/stick laborers to use it to produce shareholder value. And LLM/AI companies don't have the capital/relationships/IP (that's an antiquated term from the 20th century) to move in. When folks say AI is as revolutionary and innovative as electricity, I think that simile is ironically more salient: they are going to be governed liked utilities.

Upper-Olive4639

Counterpoint. Having cards with Dwight Schrute and Squidward on them is very very bad for a high fantasy game in the long term. Each UB set does well because it draws a ton of fans from that IP but many don’t return for the next set so they end up on this merry-go-round. 5 years ago, we’d get 40+ just for weekly tournaments in my area. Now we don’t even get the minimum of 8. I’ve spend the last year selling my 30 year old vintage magic collection worth $150k because of this.

RatGodFatherDeath

That’s the real market shift. HAS is an IP business that can also make video games and physical games and merch for those games.

Consistent-Guess94

Oh, I have. Everyday. Do not confuse today vs tomorrow. LLMs will be a race to the bottom to ensure the maximum output with the minimal input. There will be millions of LMs (note the lack of the first L) to serve specific niches. Enterprises are wising up … training niche models will become IP.

Whatdosheepdreamof

Right, so where is the R&D, in the IP theft from Anthropic and OAI? It seems like we're throwing stones out of glass houses here.

Samjabr

For once in my life I am rooting for Gynese thieves. We have two sociopaths running our top two AI labs. One is quite literally a scamster - how the fk do you turn a charity into a for profit? Not to mention stealing the IP of partners (Figma/Apple) The other one is using FUD to try to get the government to shut down all his competition. He's constantly preaching how AI will destroy all jobs, and then gleefully touts how awesome his AI models are. The richest part is the two of them created their LLMs by scraping data that didn't belong to them - and now they are crying like bitches because someone is doing the equivalent to them. These two sacks of shit are the embodiment of the type of person who will pull the ladder up behind them. You know the type. As soon as they are admitted to a club, they want to make it impossible for anyone else to join. Utter trash.

Whatdosheepdreamof

Honestly who cares if they are lying? I guarantee you they are not spending $100m+ per developer, or even $3bn like alphabet did? A $100m here, $1bn there, starts to add up... Forget about IP for a sec, because it's a null point, even the fact that you CAN distill a models reasoning should be reason enough to limit the amount of capital spent on researcher wages. $2-3tn spent so far on AI, no reason to spend that much when a significant sum has been to get to this stage. Maybe China has spent a significant amount, but it's not even a 1/10th of the cost.

Extension-Temporary4

I’m not going to sit here and say it’s about to jump 20%, or put any specific number to it, but I think snap has potential. Folks are so focused on how spectacles look, that they are missing the opportunity hiding in the shadows — the IP. That’s all I’ll say about that. 

MitchCurry

Just added to QXO (7% more shares), PRCT (13%), ISRG (6%), and NTDOY (13%). Nintendo is now my 2nd largest position (trailing MELI) by total cost basis (ex. ETFs which are \~1/2 of my total cost basis overall). My bull case on Nintendo: * Memory costs are cyclical and the JPY 100B FY27 guidance headwind from memory is transient * NTDOY guidance is legendarily conversative (some may even say outright sandbagging) * IP monetization is early (just 3% or total revenue) and will be a huge driver over the next decade * Install base of 100MM annual playing users drivers huge revenue regardless of future hardware sales * $14.3B is cash with zero debt. They can weather cyclical downturns, fund acquisitions, accelerate IP development, or just increase dividends Plenty can go wrong. I'm betting over the next 10+ years, they go right.

FrankReshman

Yeah, the Fortnite model of watering down your product so it appeals to the absolute largest number of consumers possible is incredibly profitable. But it's Hasbro who has been doing better than ever, not the Magic the Gathering IP. The IP is dead. 

SanDisk_Made_Me_Rich

I'm seeing great movies come out: The Odyssey & Obsession, which only cost $750K to make This just shows Disney has no idea what the fuck they're doing and have desecrated their IP: Start Wars in shambles, Marvel, Pirates of the Caribbean without Johnny Depp. It's a damn shame not only for the fans, but investors who've been bagholding a loss for years while Bob Iger gets rich in his Malibu/Holywood mansion

Open_State_6066

For me it’s the IP segment’s quarter over quarter run rate specifically. Once that stops shrinking sequentially, that’s a decent signal the AI capacity reallocation isn’t tightening further against the consumer volume side. Second thing: the adjusted EPS growth rate as the Ansys amortization annualizes through 2027, since that’s roughly when the accounting drag and the real cash economics should converge and the multiple debate gets a lot less noisy either way.

Market_Pro99

For me it’s the IP segment’s quarter over quarter run rate specifically. Once that stops shrinking sequentially, that’s a decent signal the AI capacity reallocation isn’t tightening further against the consumer volume side. Second thing: the adjusted EPS growth rate as the Ansys amortization annualizes through 2027, since that’s roughly when the accounting drag and the real cash economics should converge and the multiple debate gets a lot less noisy either way.

Market_Pro99

The variable missing from your list is worth digging into: it’s not just China exposure, it’s what sits inside that exposure. The IP licensing segment (pre-built circuit blocks licensed per unit) has been shrinking even excluding China, because fab capacity is getting reallocated toward AI accelerators at the expense of the high volume consumer parts, phones and PCs, that segment actually gets paid on per unit. That’s a demand mix problem, not a moat problem, and it doesn’t get fixed by China clarity or by finishing the Ansys integration. It shows up quietly because the core EDA software business is large enough to mask it in the headline growth number. On the valuation side, the trailing PE looks steep partly for accounting reasons. A meaningful chunk of GAAP earnings gets consumed every year by amortization of the intangibles created in the Ansys purchase, which is a real charge but not a cash cost. Forward multiples on adjusted EPS tell a different story than the trailing GAAP number does, so anchoring on the headline PE alone makes the stock look more disconnected from the underlying business than it may actually be.

Own-Recipe5908

The neat thing is if you're not hosting local you have that problem anyway, you don't really want your IP to leak to Openai->microsoft/USgov or anthropic. The neater thing is if you use the free open-source china models, you can run it local (Expensive hardware, but not that expensive for a firm) and it won't hack anything because it's literally just a .safetensor model weight, not a program, the programs to run it are free and no internet connection required.

IBUYVOTES

It's hard for me to see anyone with serious IP considerations pouring information into anything coming out of China. I could see why a cash strapped startup might do it, but that's a bit of a different situation.

mdatwood

> no risk of IP theft right Less risk, but not zero. For example, models can be poisoned to include a malicious package when generating code.