IP

Uplipht

Yeah it's wild. Like they have IP they could have sold for a gain to buy them some time. The merger honestly seems good but not having anything other than an SOI to show for it at just a critical inflection point of the company is such a huge misstep. The merger is going to fall through when they have to go to OTC trading. Absolutely wild mismanagement.

Green-Alarm-3896

You are right about the IP theft but those standards are hardly held. It doesn’t help that America shipped manufacturing to China for many high end products for decades. We expect these countries we have uncertain ties with to lie down and be good boys. That would be stupid for China to do. Anyway having competition is the capitalist way so we can hopefully enjoy reduced costs from the Chinese brands if they are even allowed to be sold here.

dustsmoke

AMD, they are a real company with complexity and IP moats. Broadcom (really, AVGO renamed) is a public company that

Uplipht

Mergers & Acquisitions - usually means a large influx of cash and/or acquiring assets/IP from another company.

Remarkable-Refuse921

How did the United States industralize again? Oh yeah by stealing British IP It looks like China,s EUV preogess has struck a nerve with you. An Anti China Pro America shill and this is the resoson you had the need to write about IP theft.

fallingdowndizzyvr

China produces more patents than the rest of the world combined. Yeah, they are stealing IP by doing it first. LOL! https://www.wipo.int/en/ipfactsandfigures/patents

CarrierAreArrived

any amount of basic research proves this wrong and just something peddled by Fox News/WSJ and other lazy media outlets. Almost all the "IP theft" was part of trade deals when China first opened up. China allowed the west access to the Chinese market in exchange for their tech. It's simply capitalism/globalism in action.

chuckrabbit

Aren’t open source and free resources always competition to paid resources? Research by this company would be locked behind some sort of IP versus academia.

Rassa09

where do you find it? So stop bullshit talking. For me they just state: "photonic interposer" not mentioning by whom. But as we know POET has a patents/IP on these interposers [link1 ](https://www.ept.ca/products/soc-integrates-optical-interconnect-in-the-middle-of-silicon-die/)[link2 ](https://chiplet-marketplace.com/news/celestial-ai-photonic-fabric-module-soc-with-in-die-optical-interconnect)

bunnibly

Doubtful. But they do own a shit-ton of IP that everyone uses, so it likely won't drop.

hansolo-ist

What do you mean stealing? Ideas or IP? If protected intellectual property or IP the American and European companies will be quick to act. If not protected IP then it's fair game. What about ev batteries, solar panels and rare earth's refining processes? Do you think the west will reuse none that the China are already producing with?

TroubledAcorn

Yes. $RYM success is directly tied to management’s execution. You would never invest in a setup like this if you don’t trust management. But management has shown time and time again that they look out for their shareholders. Also interests are aligned, since $GTBIF owns over %80 of $RYM, $RYM being stock doing well if a direct benefit to $GTBIF. So while it might sound weird, that $GTBIF is going to pay a royalty’s to $RYM, it actually makes sense. Say $GTBIF gives $RYM 50 million in royalties, that $50 million is $RYM makes is more valuable because as an IP company you trade at higher multiples than a retail company. So $RYM stocks benefits more from that $50 million income. $GTBIF owns majority of $RYM and actually makes even more from increasing stock price. Also there is tons of tax advantages with the setup

speadskater

If a society is only held up by IP and not innovation, it's a society worth leaving behind.

moDz_dun_care

What distinguishes US tech bros stealing IP to train AI as R&D and not corporate espionage?

pojosamaneo

Nintendo valuation was at 60-ish billion when I bought them last year around $15. NTDOY got to $25, now it's back under $18. Their valuation is too low. They have the best IP in gaming, great profit margins with their games, and several of their own multi million selling franchises. They have a shitload of cash and are getting into movies. Licensing is in top form. What matters most is that I know without a doubt that they have the best creative teams in the business, and have maintained an extremely high level of quality since the 80s. They may plod along, but they're a godam elephant.

Foreign-Package-4359

Business school... and wikipedia/chatgpt. Most of these financial metrics are either outdated or misleading if you don't understanding the quirky accounting behind them or both.  At GE, you sell a aircraft engine. A liability is created, you have to deliver the engine, and an account receiveable asset is created. They deliver the engine, you pay net 30. If you have way more engines to deliver and no account receiveable paying for them, that's a bad thing. At Oracle, or any subscription company, they sell ERP or CRM SaaS, they get paid up front and they have to deliver over time. That payment up front is an asset but because it is tied to contract delivery it isn't considered unrestricted cash so it doesn't count as an asset on the quick ratio. Quick ratio says you have all these services you need to deliver... and you don't have any accounts receiveable paying for them. You're going broke. You're not going broke. It is actually a good thing as you were paid ahead of time.  Shareholder's equity is outdated. If you ran a railroad in 1890, the initial investors put in money, the railroad used their profits to buy more railroad assets minus an insignificant amount of dividends. All of that stuff is counted as an asset, minus liabilities = equity. Shareholder equity doesn't count IP as an asset in the equity calculation. Kind of an oversight for a software company like Oracle where software IP is their largest asset. Equity also assumes that the shares outstanding are more or less constant. Buybacks used to be illegal. Oracle has bought back $150 billion worth of their own stock over the last 10 years. That takes cash (an asset) out of Oracle which is bad for equity. It is good for EPS. It is good if you are a shareholder, all other things being equal, because one share of Oracle is now owns a greater share of the company. 

ShadowLiberal

I mean you can make a pretty credible argument that strict IP laws actually hinder innovation, at least some of the time, despite the narrative that it helps innovation. As in China is successful at making the most cutting edge technology in part because of IP theft and not enforcing other people's patents since they hinder China's innovation. The steam engine is actually one of the best historical examples of this. Long story short the guy who invented it had a monopoly on steam engines thanks to his patent. Other people came along and found ways to improve the steam engine, patented it, and tried to make competing companies but couldn't because of the original steam engine patents which were used to destroy any competition in court. He refused to license the patents to anyone, since he didn't want to have any competition. But getting rid of competition got rid of all incentive for the steam engine inventor to continue innovating and improving the steam engine, especially when other people already held patents for all the most obvious improvements to the steam engine and refused to license them to him (since he refused to license his steam engine patents back to them). So the industry stagnated for 2 decades until all of the patents finally expired. Then a bunch of new competition entered the market, the original inventor of the steam engine quickly saw his market share erode overnight as he was unable to compete against all the more innovative competitors popping up.

PrawnProwler

What about the 70's-90's for Japan, before their economic crash? Foreign IP didn't mean a thing, they were so good as copying that they became an economic giant and it got to the point where America started adopting Japanese manufacturing techniques, which were actually derived from American manufacturers.

ImNotAnEnigmaa

Corporate espionage isn't unique to China. But China is EASILY the biggest culprit here. They rely on corporate espionage and IP theft more than any other country in the world. There's a reason why the FBI has a special division against fighting IP theft and corporate espionage, specifically focused on China. No other country has that honor. The U.S. has a venture capitalist culture where money is thrown around at any potentially good idea. Hence, the many start ups that arise from the U.S. to become a global tech brand. American tech is mostly homegrown through research and development.

ImNotAnEnigmaa

All countries do it to a certain extent. China is in the stratosphere when it comes to IP theft and corporate espionage. No other country in the world relies on it as much. There's a reason why the FBI has a special division to prevent Chinese corporate theft. No other country has that honor.

ImNotAnEnigmaa

Yes. China is easily the biggest source of corporate espionage and IP theft. It's such a major issue that the FBI has had a special division with the focus of preventing corporate espionage and IP theft from ONE specific country: China.

ImNotAnEnigmaa

Ahh yes, the industrial age where IP theft was as rampant as it is in 2025. Because we all know the internet and means of hacking/corporate espionage existed in the late 1800s.

ImNotAnEnigmaa

Funny seeing how defensive anti american, pro chinese shills are getting. I never stated they steal 100% of every tech/industry they're involved in. That doesn't change a thing of what I said before: China is easily the most prolific actor in IP theft.

Weird-Connection-530

Beyond any wealth he’s amassed since Trump took office, it’s concerning how much IP/classified information he’s gained access to, at least in the US… I can’t imagine his wealth ever being effectively diminished, so it’s terrifying to consider how powerful this man can become.

z34conversion

Great advice. Maybe I don't want to hold these bags much longer. For anyone else interested, to save time, here's what the answers are. Oracle’s (ORCL) current debt ladder, the seniority of their obligations, and the nature of the payments. As of late 2025, Oracle has moved into a more aggressive leverage phase, largely to fund its massive AI infrastructure and data center expansion. >1. The Debt Ladder: Maturity Profile Oracle's debt is characterized by a "ladder" of staggered maturities. They recently issued $18 billion in new notes (September 2025) to refinance maturing debt and fund capital expenditures. | Maturity Year | Estimated Principal Due | Notable Notes/Instruments | 2025 | ~$4.5B - $5B | 3.125% Senior Notes (due July) | 2026 | ~$5B - $7B | 2.650% Senior Notes (due July) | 2027 | ~$10B+ | $5.6B Term Loan + Various Senior Notes | 2030-2035 | ~$25B+ | New 2025 Issuances (4.45% - 5.20%) | 2045-2065 | ~$30B+ | Long-dated "Ultra-Long" Bonds (up to 6.1%) **2. Debt Seniority & Structure** Oracle’s capital structure is relatively "flat," consisting primarily of Senior Unsecured Notes. >Seniority: These notes are "senior," meaning they sit at the top of the repayment hierarchy compared to any subordinated debt or equity. However, since they are "unsecured," they are backed by the general credit of the company rather than specific assets (like a building or IP). >Mandatory vs. Discretionary: These are mandatory contractual obligations. Unlike dividends, which are discretionary, failure to pay interest or principal on these notes constitutes a default. >Payment-in-Kind (PIK): Oracle’s public debt consists of standard fixed-rate notes. They do not typically use PIK (where interest is paid with more debt/stock instead of cash). Payments are cash-settled semi-annually. **3. The "Waterfall" of Outflows** >A waterfall model for Oracle shows that cash flows are increasingly diverted toward "Fixed Charges" before reaching equity holders: > Operating Cash Flow: ~$18B - $20B (Annualized). >Interest Expense (First Leak): Oracle’s interest burden has grown significantly due to higher rates and higher principal. >Mandatory Principal Repayments: The "ladder" shown above. >Growth CapEx (AI/Data Centers): This is currently the largest "drain," with billions committed to Nvidia chips and power infrastructure. > Residual Cash (Dividends/Buybacks): Oracle has historically been a massive buyer of its own stock, but management has signaled that buybacks will not increase until gross debt is reduced. **4. Assessment of Repayment Ability** Oracle’s ability to service this debt is currently a "battle of the narratives": **The Bull Case (Solvency):** Oracle has a staggering $523 billion Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO). This represents a massive backlog of contracted revenue that acts as a "guaranteed" cash flow stream to service debt over the next decade. **The Bear Case (Liquidity/Risk):** Oracle's credit rating sits at BBB (S&P) / Baa2 (Moody's)—the lower end of investment grade. Their Credit Default Swaps (CDS) recently widened (to ~125 bps), suggesting the market is pricing in higher risk. **External Factors:** >**Interest Rates:** As old 2-3% debt matures, Oracle is forced to refinance at 5-6%, permanently raising their "cost of carry." >**Counterparty Risk:** A significant portion of Oracle's AI growth is tied to OpenAI. If OpenAI’s revenue falters or they shift providers, Oracle’s ability to "harvest" the cash from their expensive data centers is compromised. >**Partner Volatility:** Recent reports of data center partners withdrawing support for certain projects (December 2025) create execution risk for the very infrastructure intended to pay off the debt. **As of December 17, 2025, Oracle’s ultra-long-dated bonds are no longer just "long-term debt"—they have become a flashing siren for credit analysts.** >The market is currently pricing these bonds at deep discounts, with yields reaching levels typically reserved for "junk" or high-yield issuers, despite Oracle’s formal Investment Grade (BBB) rating. **1. The 2065 "Ultra-Long" Bond Profile** Oracle has two primary tranches maturing in 2065. Their performance over the last week has been staggering: **| Bond Maturity | Coupon | Current Price (Est.) | Yield to Maturity (YTM) | Price Performance |** | Aug 2065 | 6.125% | ~$88.10 | 6.95% - 7.10% | Down 11% from par | | Sept 2065 | 6.100% | ~$87.30 | 7.05% - 7.20% | Down 12% from par | | Mar 2061 | 4.100% | ~$64.34 | 6.77% | Deeply "underwater" | >**Context: For a BBB-rated company, a 7%+ yield on long-dated paper is highly unusual. For comparison, a 30-year US Treasury is yielding ~4.85%. Oracle is paying a ~220-230 basis point premium over the risk-free rate, suggesting the market sees a significant "duration risk" paired with credit deterioration.** **2. The "Distress" Signal: Trading Like Junk** The most alarming development today is that Oracle's newly issued bonds (from September 2025) are already trading at a total paper loss of ~$1.4 billion for the original investors. >The Yield Flip: Oracle’s senior notes are now yielding more than the average "BB" (junk-rated) bond index. >> The Blue Owl Shock: The news today that Blue Owl Capital walked away from a $10 billion data center financing deal in Michigan has sent shockwaves through the bond ladder. >>>The Liquidity Squeeze: Without this $10B in external partner capital, the "waterfall" model we discussed earlier breaks. Oracle must now either: >>>>Drain Cash: Divert more Operating Cash Flow to CapEx (starving buybacks/dividends). >>>>>Issue More Debt: Return to the bond market, but at these 7%+ "distressed" yields, which would be prohibitively expensive. **3. Impact on the Debt Ladder & Repayment** This price collapse in the 2065 bonds affects Oracle's ability to manage the rest of its ladder: >Refinancing Risk: Oracle has ~$7B due in 2026. Usually, they would "roll" this debt by issuing new long-term bonds. But with 2065 bonds yielding 7%, issuing new debt to pay off old 2.65% debt (the 2026 notes) will triple their interest expense for that tranche. >> The "Covenant" Ghost: While senior unsecured notes have few restrictive covenants, a drop to "Junk" status (BB+ or lower) would trigger "Change of Control" or "Coupon Step-up" clauses in many of their private credit agreements, further accelerating cash outflows. Summary: The Bond Market's Verdict **The bond market is essentially calling "bluff" on Oracle's AI growth story. While the stock market sees the $523B RPO backlog as a guarantee, bondholders see the $100B+ total debt and the failure of major financing partners as a sign that the "waterfall" is running dry.**

J0hnnyBlazer

Appreciate the intellectual honesty and not letting ego overtake the convo. My point is not convince you that mmwave is useless, as you know I been invested and part of BW discord for a while. My goal is being able talk about BW and the potential without the discord hedging or religious praising of the management, misleading info or turning everything into positive even critique. No-one is above critique, its not normal operate a company almost 10years without a drop of income, dilute shareholders to shit, full pay-roll of 30?!?! fucking employees, change plans from licensing to all of sudden full mask tape-out, HVM and act as nothing changed. Its obvious their plan changed drastically if you read the 2022 IPO. "quite keenly, it seems" is shit they been saying since IPO. I believe situation is that main providers they were counting on licensing to turned them down , unproven IP, and its harder and more desperate for BW than it seems or what they want to project, understandably. When they started 2017 mmwave was at its peak because of Verizons CEO (ericssons former CEO), was pushing mmwave and BW was confident. That mmwave roll-out got brutally cancelled and now we are here. We were also promised a deal "biggest company imaginable" end of 2024, that also obviously went to shit. They came to a point where it was "either we shut down or we go all in". Anyway, they got the money now for tape-outs, 30?!?! employees and try their best. Now what does we as investors gain from reframing everything as positive and not allowing critique? Nothing, but you got investors that pump/hype the stock, sell and buy the stock, that's the only reason and I aint down with keep playing that game.

slimkay

They didn't steal IP... they just poached ASML's best and brightest with fat signing bonuses.

pingu_nootnoot

Every country has done this, the US , Japan, now China. Nobody respects IP rights until they have IP of their own to protect. As an example, 19th century US publishers were notorious for copying UK books and publishing them without paying the authors, which was all completely legal according to US law. [Charles Dickens](https://fishstewip.com/charles-dickens-and-the-ghost-of-copyright-future-fish-tank-newsletter-volume-23-issue-8/) complained about it constantly. Even Benjamin Franklin was a well-known pirate/publisher. You can be annoyed by China’s behaviour if you like, but it really should not surprise you.

elgrandorado

Bingo. Now they're pushing the boundaries of smartphone offerings for consumers. Still innovation. Like I said before, China is FAR from the first country to do IP theft, and it shocks me that people pretend the US didn't do an insane amount of IP theft as well.

elgrandorado

Same shit the US did to England during the industrial revolution. IP theft will always exist and it's up to our governments to successfully mitigate it. I'm not gonna defend it, but I'm not gonna blindly forget about the past 200 years of history. It's a cycle.

elgrandorado

So walk me through how they lead in battery manufacturing? They stole the IP that doesn't exist yet? Both them stealing IP & developing new innovations can be true at the same time lol.

ImNotAnEnigmaa

They heavily rely on IP theft. R&D is expensive- why waste money when you can simply steal tech secrets and then build off of that? IP theft is such a huge issue that the FBI has a division specifically for Chinese corporate espionage. No other country has that honor in the U.S.

elgrandorado

All that IP theft and now they are the bleeding edge on battery tech, EVs, and industrial robotics. At some point it's no longer theft but innovation lol.

drew-gen-x

There's nothing wrong with getting out of the way of this train wreck. I've done more buying the last 2 days than I have all year combined. I think energy & oil stocks look crazy cheap right. $ET is paying a 8% dividend yield. $IP is paying 4.7%, $MOS 3%, $OXY and $HAL 2.5%. It maybe old school investing, but I have always liked investing in energy & gold. None of these Scam Altman AI circle jerk stocks can do a damn thing w/o being powered by energy. And is the world's energy consumption going up or down?

No-Variation3350

Not really how it works. ASML only sells china DUV lithography machines. The most complex aspects of EUV machines are not even present on DUV machines, so nothing to gain there. The article explicitly says that they're acquiring EUV-related parts through second hard markets via shell companies and layers off indirection. Not much you can do about that really. They're struggling to acquire the optical components necessary even still. It's impossible to control your IP to an extent that secret sauce never gets leaked/reverse-engineered. the US restricted the sale of cutting edge GPUs to china for years, only for them to mostly reverse-engineer it and figure it out on their own anyways. It's a losing game.

drew-gen-x

Silver is up 31% this month. Gold is up 7.4% over last month. I've made 5% over the last 30 days shorting $QQQ with $SQQQ even thou I timed my trades badly. Today my green positions are $HAL, $OXY, $IP, $MOS and of course gold. $XLE and $XLU are about to explode once people start to realize where is all this energy going to come from to pay for all these datacenters being built and what is actually needed to power AI consumption.

Elsacuno

ANGX was significantly overvalued from the start. Part of it is there are so many previous investors acquired through the years that when preferred got converted into common, preferred received a huge numbers of shares at a very low cost per share. Some people were up 700% on a company that is continually losing money. I don't blame them for realizing their profits. ANGX got down to just below $4 earlier this year and popped back up a lil. Their DAVID movie is releasing on December 19. They have reported $14M in presales, which is double their King of Kings movie presales which ultimately grossed around $60M domestically. 3,500 is the estimated theater count for DAVID, KoK was 3,200. They ran trailers during Wicked For Good release, and I read that DAVID has more organic Google searches than the new Spongebob movie. Opening weekend is estimated around $30M. But even with amazing numbers for DAVID, theaters take around 50% of gross sales, and we don't know what the total marketing expenses for DAVID are yet, but I am expecting them to be high considering how much is spent on promoting their streaming service. And with 169M shares outstanding, even a significant box office hit won't meaningfully add much to the stock price because DAVID is a one off event, not an IP or brand with significant legs. So maybe we see a little run on Friday and Monday in response to the release, but prices are likely to pull back as people realize there's a long road ahead to approaching consistent profitability. Happy to hear where I am wrong.

DaySecure7642

ASML should not have sold a single lithographer to China. It let China reverse engineering all these years and now we see the final outcomes. Shortsighted. EUV tech will join a long list of successful reverse engineering and catch up of China including EV, high speed trains, smartphones ..... When will the western countries realize that the best way in the long run is to very tightly control the IPs and stop any opportunity for reverse engineering and IP theft?

drew-gen-x

This bear just moved some of his $SQQQ short gains into shares of $HAL and $OXY, which are added to my new positions in $MOS and $IP yesterday. If this Scam Altman AI circle jerk bubble doesn't crash the market, then at the very least we are going to see a market rotation into energy & commodity names. Trump and J-Pow can print $USD, but you can't print crude oil.

Prax150

From an operational corporate standpoint, sure. From the perspective of what's good for an industry that's supposed to be the confluence of art and commerce, I'm not so sure. They have been slowly but surely doing harm to a model that had previously worked in various forms for nearly a century. They have successfully turned movies and shows into "content," the binge model has done irreparable damage (to the point where they're even trying to undo it now with these ridiculous multi-phase releases and bringing back weekly shows), they have played a big part in how shows and movies actually look bad now from a lighting and FX perspective. The pay model for artists is also completely fucked now, they purposely obfuscated how many people watched their content for years to the point where no one know what their work was actually worth. Even prestige filmmakers largely don't have a choice but to work with them, a problem that will be exacerbated when you take a major player in negotiations off the table. They are lucky to still have some people in their ranks that actually care about art and we are lucky when they pump out something that is actually good and they don't meddle with too much. They get lucky when they have an Oscar or an Emmy nominee and even then the quality of their output is tangibly affected by everything above. Two recent examples: The Beast in Me which looks terrible from a cinematography POV, Frankenstein which is on its way to a bunch of Oscar nominations when the VFX and lighting are terrible. Stranger Things has to release over 3 holidays instead of just weekly like a normal show because they want people to stay subscribed through the new year and don't want people to get mad about not binging things. All these problems will get worse when they acquire a hundred billion dollars of IP. Maybe I'll be problem wrong but I don't trust them to adapt their own model to fit a beast like that. If everything WB owns has to change to fit what Netflix does, it will all be worse off. And again that's from an artistic POV and not with consideration to the problems with them continue to build an industry monopoly, the erosion of the theatre and traditional television experiences, the impending existential threat of AI that hasn't affected Netflix much yet. Either option is bad. The Ellisons are bad, especially when you combine them with a conglomeration of other political activists dead set on meddling with American culture. I don't know if they're much worse than Netflix though.

thefoodiedentist

Netflix did marvel IP w daredevil and punisher and i thought they were phenominal. I like both disney and netflix tho, so i got both their subs. Im hooked on stranger things rn, man its so good!

SpamAcc17

I prefer disney when it comes to making something of their IP's even if their success rate isn't phenomenal. Netflix is better at originals and margins. It's famous for cancelling shows a couple popular shows while letting emily on paris run rampant due to its dominance as a streaming show.

J0hnnyBlazer

They said alot of shit as you can see by their 2022 IPO. They said during that same presentation that everything has been going according to plan since the beginning, something I reacted on, because obviously it has not. Now, nothing ever goes to plan, which is normal, but acting like it does, is just weird. Everyone was expecting them to licens their chip blueprints. Now they going into HVM, thats a clear deviation from the original plan. [https://beammwave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/BeammWave\_ET.pdf](https://beammwave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/BeammWave_ET.pdf) Mobiltelefontillverkare som exempelvis Samsung, Apple och Huawei har egen chiptillverkning vilket gör att även dessa är Bolagets potentiella kunder. BeammWave kommer att ha följande intäktskällor: engångsintäkter som erhålls vid uppstart av samarbete med en ny kund samt licensintäkter för chip och mjukvarualgoritmen. Uppstartskostnaden kan ses som ett projektarvode som varierar för respektive kund och avser täcka kostnader för support, utbildning samt överföring av designen. Licensavgifterna erhåller Bolaget i form av en royalty per sålt chip. Kundernas genomsnittliga försäljningspris per chip uppskattas till 1 USD där Bolaget förväntar sig att kunna erhålla 5–15 procent i licensavgift. Bolaget uppskattar att kunna börja generera projektarvoden under 2022 och licensintäkter i början av 2024. Bolagets affärsmodell kommer att utgå från en standard IP-licensieringsmodell där Bolaget säljer sin teknik till chiptillverkare. Dessa chiptillverkare producerar sedan chipen enligt Bolagets ”recept”, och säljer vidare till smartphonetillverkare. Bolaget kommer att generera intäkter i två faser. Den första i form av en uppstartsintäkt, som faktureras för att täcka kostnader avseende bland annat överföring av designen och utbildning kring BeammWaves teknik. I den andra fasen genereras intäkten i form av licensavgifter för de sålda chipen. Den mjukvara som krävs för Bolagets algoritmer för beamforming kommer också att licensieras enligt samma modell, både till de chiptillverkare som licensierar Bolagets chiplösning och i vissa fall direkt till smartphonetillverkare.

TAKINAS_INNOVATION

Tbh I only like the acquisition because of the IP. They can use it to go into merchandise, licensing and experiences. They can now buff up their Netflix experiences houses now. I think their core business is fine and will continue chugging along. But now it’s time for them to diversify into multiple revenue streams like Google and their other FAANG peers.

TAKINAS_INNOVATION

I do think it’s good IP. I’m just saying there could be issues with acquisitions. Not every acquisition is like Facebook and WhatsApp or instagram. There have been failure acquisitions too. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with pointing this out.

TAKINAS_INNOVATION

All I’m saying is there are some concerns to acquisitions. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with pointing that out. I do think taking the IP is valuable. But not every acquisition goes smoothly. There’s different cultures at these two companies. They need to integrate them well.

thefoodiedentist

Good. Netflix wont ruin wb's IP and may actually improve it. Paramounts gonna ruin it.

JoeDawson8

They aren’t bidding for any of the tv networks. Only the studios, IP, and streaming assets

WingedScapula420

This was a given. The WB board never really engaged with Paramount, in part because their financing was and remains very sketchy. The biggest thing Paramount has going for it is Ellison's relationship with Trump in terms of getting the acquisition approved but as long as Netflix pays the right people and makes the right promises that's a non issue. Paramount's offer is still a low ball because Netflix was only buying the studio and IP.

didymus_fng

Fair point. Need that new well IP to keep cashflow going for most companies.

Medical-Shoulder-337

i dont love the deal from a Netflix standpoint, but they do acquire a lot of IP that if they can execute should generate eyeballs, monetizing it and not fucking up are the challenges

Lost_Grand3468

>they acquired a shit ton of IP from warner bros Did they though? We'll find out in 2 years.

PooPooPointBoiz

Is NFLX Looking like a buy soon? They're massive, they acquired a shit ton of IP from warner bros, they're on a roll with massive hits, literally every american has a netflix account. They''re beaten down, but are they poised for a recovery? And with the split, they're kind of at a good price to wheel.

brahbocop

Paramount NEEDS this given their current slate of IP is in very rough shape. Nobody cares about Transformers, Mission: Impossible movies generally seem to produce a small profit, if any profit at all, Nickelodeon is being taken over by YouTube channels and stars like Ms. Rachel, and they've struggled to really find a nerve with audiences box office wise.

henristig

I want to try and reframe this a bit since I agree Beammwave is setting up for insane success pending execution, such that it's hard to grasp the breadth of it here. I'll do this tl;dr style eventhough there'd be an essay here really: small Swedish semiconductor company with complete ownership (40+ patent families) of a breakthrough technology that solves high frequency communication in a market where the current solution is inherently inadequate. A world running out of capacity and the operator-side, who have sunk hundreds of billions of investments into a so-far failed technology, screaming for a solution. They're now in the process of industrializing their chip for high volume production, with customers lining up at the door. Their current customers are global giants in the field of smartphones, FWA (fixed wireless access, basically 5G internet to your home) and base stations, but the scope of their market isn't any single category of device per se - it's all of wireless. The chips they make are usecase agnostic, they could scale to any application from simple IoT to communicating with the closest exoplanet without further modification, you just increase the chip count as necessary; we're talking a total adressable market in the hundreds of billions. There's a real, credible path for Beammwave distributed digital beamforming to become essential IP for high-frequency comms, in the vein of Qualcomm CDMA patents for lower generations of wireless or what ARM is for smartphones. Contrast that to their current 40M USD valuation, and you see why it's worth the bet!

Monster213213

NFLX - it’s not going anywhere at all and will get its IP soon somehow. Tell me in 5 years will Netflix be a staple still for probably close to a billion people - yes

SoCallMeDeaconBlues1

You're fucking insane. BB is nothing more than an IP holder at this point, and many of their patents have been offloaded to 3rd party, and the rest are continuing to be offered through several channels. I do this for a living bro. Literally crazy throwing a YOLO at this. There are a gazillion better options out there.

drew-gen-x

This bear also opened a position in $IP. Some bulls here claim bears never buy. I opened positions is both $IP International Paper and $MOS Mosaic this morning. I tend to think BTD means buying stocks with good cash flows near 5 year lows vs buying the Scam Altman AI circle jerk stocks on these ant sized 5% dips near ATH's.

AcademicStandard3701

I can see your IP address too

alexunderwater1

Chinese companies have proven they don’t negotiate, they steal IP and then undercut.

Dry-Yogurtcloset8011

It is an IP company dawg. Do you think they're just an automobile company?

Opening_AIx

That's a good point. I doubt MS would have any regulatory issues since they don't really own any media. But the IP WBD offers is tremendous for MS. I think MS has enough issues on its own with AI, cloud, gaming, and windows. MS is trying to move their gaming device to be agnostic to platform to capture a larger audience. In a sense, it would be feasible to make their streaming service only on xbox which even Apple and Amazon are not doing. They made sure their app is available across set-top boxes like Roku and Amazon fire tv, etc.

xtreme3xo

I think Netflix is desperate. I think this deal shows that after billions spent, they have nothing from IP perspective. Besides Squid Game / Stranger Things. If Netflix bought Xbox off Microsoft that would make much more sense from a growth perspective. They’d have Halo, Gears of War, Crash, Doom, COD, Fallout, Elder Scrolls. Screen time wise they’d get more out of that, with game pass fitting into their streaming market. And I think Microsoft just wants to exit the gaming market. Buying WB means they get HBO, Harry Potter, LOTR, DC, Friends. But it’s worth remembering WB hasn’t managed to make money out of those IP’s recently so for me that says more about the demand than the platform. So Netflix are going to pay a lot of money, to get a lot of IP’s everyone has already watched. It begs the question where is the growth? I just can’t see it. I think Netflix in 5 years time will be getting bought by Google or Microsoft and they’ll be begging to get bought.

many_kittens

It sucked. I have four ecovacs X8 at home. I had researched irobot before buying ecovacs and I was like genuinely puzzled what gave irobot the audacity to charge thousands for just basic and outdated functions with shit reviews from testers. Even if they tried to improve products, they couldnt catch up with the other brands the gap was so wide I thought the retailer didn't list their new products. It is generations behind. Even if they could catch up in terms of tech, they cannot compete on costs. They don't have any meaningful IP. Zero moat in any aspect. They're not Dyson or Apple, It's a dead end. Imo it's critical to research the products of the company you are buying that's a starting point. come back story is rare.

chrisreadsstuff

Because Hollywood studios have essentially run out of IP to exploit, I’d like to offer Hello Shitty. It’s a bear without a mouth.

boredscrollingreddit

I moreso surprised Microsoft didnt go the WBD route. They seem to be the only major tech player without a media division - unless they are treating Xbox as that arm. Even so, with all the IP they own, buying a media platform like HBO seemed like a no brainer. Possible they didnt want to bother with the regulatory stuff though I guess

ma_hmod1915

That’s fair, but I don’t think the recent price increase is purely deal-driven speculation. Part of the move can be attributed to improved business positioning at Warner Bros. Discovery, upcoming IP monetization, and stronger operational signals. Even if deal-related hype fades, it doesn’t necessarily mean the stock must fully retrace, especially if management manages the narrative and stability well. Regarding Paramount, I personally find it unlikely that WBD management would accept their offer if the Netflix deal fails. The initial ~$30B valuation was relatively low for WBD’s asset base and could reasonably be perceived internally as dismissive. On top of that, the hostile nature of the bid doesn’t help. From my perspective, rejecting Paramount wouldn’t be emotional—it would be a strategic signal that WBD doesn’t see itself as a distressed seller.

RedBrowning

This is true but I think others replying to you are missing the point. Not only is wealth not tracked by the IRS but its hard to track at any point in time period. There is no system that requires regular assessments of property. Assets like public stocks trade on a very active market so figuring out value is easy. Private stocks, property, hard goods, intangibles like IP and branding are not actively priced at all times and it can be hard to estimate until time of sale.

QueenMagik

Disney spent a century being notoriously guarded about it's IP and then went and did this half a decade in to a new tech ology. It's like going around yelling at everyone about how manly you are and then proudly ripping your own dick off

FelixEvergreen

There’s a difference between AI generated content and giving people on the internet free reign over your IP.

Toxic72

Play the spinoff vs the big old conglomerate - 70s/80s everyone wanted to scale and horizontally integrate. Fast forward, that structure is SLOW and inefficient and wtf does the board of the conglom know about aerospace or silicon IP (the SOLS spinoff). These spinoffs are hitting the market with solid IP that was not accessible without buying a bunch of trash before (the rest of the conglom). I'd rather buy shares of SOLS than Honeywell proper.

gizamo

Unlike a design team, this deal will probably generate revenue. For example, Disney may get a cut of the advertising revenue that OpenAI generates from their ads on Disney content. It also gives them leverage in court to sue other AI platforms that are taking their IP for free. Lastly, Disney makes $90+ billion a year. This is ~1% of their revenue. It's not a huge investment for something that could generate revenue and help protect their IP. Tldr: this could be smart, maybe, we'll see.

Nadzzy

They're just trying to keep up with the Chinese AI image generators that don't give a fuck about IP laws.

henristig

Beammwave (BEAMMW_B on Nasdaq First North growth market) could be in for an insane journey. 2026 will most likely be the year they get "discovered" by the market as they complete industrialization. Tl;dr: small semiconductor company with total ownership (40+ patent families) of a breakthrough technology that solves high frequency communication in a market where the current solution (analog beamforming) is inherently inadequate, and an industry screaming for a solution. They basically have a credible path to becoming essential IP, in the vein of Qualcomm CDMA patents or what ARM is for smartphones, for the entire wireless industry going into the future (a TAM in the hundreds of billions) with a current mkt cap of 30M USD. The clue trail already low key points toward their chips being designed in with a major smartphone OEM for late 2026 or 2027, but it's all still veeery hush-hush at this stage...

Civil-Shopping-903

Netflix is about to become almost an IP monopolist in media & entertainment industry, Google and OpenAI will pay handsomely to use their data

Massive_Kiwi_9586

Our chocolate is made of 62% dark chocolate and uses only pure premium ingredients, aimed to change the premium chocolate luxury market. People on social media are calling us “The Rolex of chocolates”, “edible art”, “diamond” etc. Here are some information for better understanding. I can share the website and socials privately (we have the blue checkmark on Instagram). About me Founder & CEO: Business Psychologist from Switzerland with deep expertise in consumer (food) behavior, leadership, and premium market psychology. From Switzerland’s finest chocolates to Amsterdam’s innovation - a lifelong passion turned global vision. The company was born from expertise in consumer psychology, love for design, and an obsession with creating indulgence that connects emotionally. Problems: * Same Taste, Same Story - Traditional brands lack innovation and storytelling. * Retail-Dependent - Limited to boutiques, not built for scale. * Disconnected from Digital Consumers - Gen Z & Millennials want design and experience, not just flavor. * Pricing Paradox - High prices without efficiency or modern marketing. Solutions: * Fresh Design - Art-inspired bars with unique gem-cut moulds and modern storytelling. * Digital-First - D2C via Shopify, powered by influencer marketing and social reach. * Global Scale - High-margin (81.6%) model with DHL worldwide fulfillment. * Accessible Luxury Premium craftsmanship - priced for modern, design-led consumers. Market analysis: Expanding $31.9B Market Driven by Premiumization and Online Growth Insights: • Market Size: USD 31.9 B (2024) → USD 40.6 B (2030) • Growth: ~4.3% CAGR • Top Region: USA and Middle East (≈ 40%) • Fastest Growth: Asia Pacific Trends: • Premium gifting • Ethical sourcing • Online sales ↑ ~7% CAGR • Gen Z & Millennial luxury demand Investor value: * High-Margin Model - 81.6% gross margin, proven D2C economics * Scalable Growth - €40K MRR → €15M+ ARR by 2027 * Global Reach - DHL partnership for worldwide delivery * Strong Brand - 70 influencers (50M reach), luxury IP & design

Massive_Kiwi_9586

I am unable to send you a DM. Will post the needed information here. Can share the website and socials privately. About me Founder & CEO Business Psychologist from Switzerland with deep expertise in consumer (food) behavior, leadership, and premium market psychology. From Switzerland’s finest chocolates to Amsterdam’s innovation - a lifelong passion turned global vision. The company was born from expertise in consumer psychology, love for design, and an obsession with creating indulgence that connects emotionally. Problems: * Same Taste, Same Story - Traditional brands lack innovation and storytelling. * Retail-Dependent - Limited to boutiques, not built for scale. * Disconnected from Digital Consumers - Gen Z & Millennials want design and experience, not just flavor. * Pricing Paradox - High prices without efficiency or modern marketing. Solutions: * Fresh Design - Art-inspired bars with unique gem-cut moulds and modern storytelling. * Digital-First - D2C via Shopify, powered by influencer marketing and social reach. * Global Scale - High-margin (81.6%) model with DHL worldwide fulfillment. * Accessible Luxury Premium craftsmanship - priced for modern, design-led consumers. Market analysis: Expanding $31.9B Market Driven by Premiumization and Online Growth Insights: • Market Size: USD 31.9 B (2024) → USD 40.6 B (2030) • Growth: ~4.3% CAGR • Top Region: USA and Middle East (≈ 40%) • Fastest Growth: Asia Pacific Trends: • Premium gifting • Ethical sourcing • Online sales ↑ ~7% CAGR • Gen Z & Millennial luxury demand Investor value: * High-Margin Model - 81.6% gross margin, proven D2C economics * Scalable Growth - €40K MRR → €15M+ ARR by 2027 * Global Reach - DHL partnership for worldwide delivery * Strong Brand - 70 influencers (50M reach), luxury IP & design Happy to answer all your questions!

Rock_or_Rol

I worked in one of their assembly plants during college as a lowly part runner. They’re great! They had some interesting IP almost ten years ago in surprised I haven’t seen any mention of elsewhere.

lilTweak420

These global conflicts are way more interconnected than people initially give them credit for. Everything always leads back to either the US, China, Russia, Iran, or India. Extremist organizations in the ME? Irans funds over a dozen and is actively working with Russia to destabilize US and Israeli influence in the Middle East to establish their own dominance in the region. China is working its way to overtake the US geopolitically, and is actively supporting anything that hurts the US, including getting involved in Venezuela, and helping Russia with Ukraine, spying on Europe and the US. Stealing IP. They’re putting in the works when it comes to global domination, and the US leadership has yet to realize the scale of which this runs. I mean they’re even getting involved in Africa, and Venezuela is just a pawn for them to distract the US while they get more of South America in their pockets. Russia is actively allied with Iran, friendly with China, and locked in a war against Ukraine and Europe in general at this point. All incidents in Europe always point back to Russia. India is a newer player on the world stage, but I have a feeling they’re gonna act as another economic and geopolitical counterweight to both the US and China. Pure speculation though so I’ll probably be wrong. The US, actively in a military campaign against Venezuela, with a leader who seems to be working with our adversaries instead of against them. However, behind it all, the actions of all the other countries are motivated simply by the existence of the US, whether they’re an adversary or an ally. Feel free to fact check me, this is just my personal breakdown of the bigger global conflicts in the world and doesn’t include Israel, or Africa, even though both those places also hold a lot of geopolitical significance, it would just take too long to go through it all. If any of this stuff truly interests you, do your own research, and come to your own conclusions.

Immediate-Check7803

LeCun as most academics do gave away his IP for free with PyTorch. Grandpa needs a friend and bad parents need a lesson. bright side

Serious_Swan_2371

I think the IP is what connects with people’s hearts. Once AI is good enough, people will just be writing their own full cartoons and the Disney characters will be acting them out. It’ll be as good as the people making it want it to be. Just like reels and TikToks most of them will be trash but people will share the good ones and they’ll overall enjoy the environment.

themostofpost

That all bets on people giving a shit long term though. All of this bets on what hasn’t happened yet, Ai content feeling real beyond technical realism. Disney is Disney because of how they connect with people’s hearts. I just don’t see Ai ever being able to do that. What will draw people to use Ai with their IP will destroy what brought them there in the first place. Just my prediction.

Serious_Swan_2371

They’ll monetize the platform for creating and sharing itself, they don’t even need to make movies anymore unless it’s to launch a new character/world/IP Their costs will go to near zero, they’ll be an IP company that requires a subscription to create your own stuff with their IP and consume long form content. They’ll let the short form stuff that users create become their ads and they won’t need to spend on ads at all.

-AwhWah-

I can't help but feel that this is very short sighted. Like, say they allow people to gen stuff with their characters. Alright cool. But unlimited slop will dilute their brand. Their IP's will eventually feel like stand-in's, since they're no longer bound by Disney's own output. Once Disney's generator is messed around with it for a while, what is really left? Pushing the envelope. Making them do things more and more out of character. Are people going to want to invest their time and energy into an IP which will become directly connected to randomly generated content? I don't really think so. When AI is good enough and cheap enough, there is NO POINT to IP's. Why on earth would I give a shit about your crappy IP, when I can remix ideas from everywhere else and make my own IP? What is the point of watching other people's effortless content, when I can just as easily generate the content myself? In a true AI future, I think the only people who will make money are a.) the model hosters, and b.) advertisers. You'll be sat down, and say "generate a 3 season show that is similar but not similar enough to cause IP infringement of Breaking Bad, but it also contains trains because I really like trains, and the main character is similar to but not quite Christina Hendricks and she always experiences wardrobe malfunctions." and then it'll gen that, and put little advertisements here and there. It's just very funny that the same company that cease and decisited a family for daring to have Spider-Man on a grave is essentially saying, go nuts. And yeah, of course they have "safety percautions" in place, but let's be real, there's always a way to get around the AI. Whenever this thing goes live I give it an hour before someone generates porn or something highly problematic with it that goes viral, and then Disney either temporarily disables their IP's, or walks back on it. (Either that, or they'll hire real people to eventually moderate the gens 😂)

EngRookie

The stock is down bc even if the merger goes through they just burned a huge wad of cash and it will be 2-3 years post deal closing that Netflix really starts seeing the benefits of the new IP. IMO 70 is not unrealistic as many will take profits and jump ship as that means 2-3 of slow growth and sideways trading. But that will be a temporary dip and $65-$70 is a key support level and i don't think it will go lower than that at the worst. More likely i think the drawdown will go to around $80. Honestly it all depends on momentum and how much of the money currently invested is based on a short term growth strategy. So if it takes 12-18 months to close we are looking at 3-4 years b4 we see a meaningful impact on their balance sheet. They could definitely start making money on merch/licensing as soon as the deal closes though.

themostofpost

Sounds like a bribe more than a wise investment. It just doesn’t make sense to me. This is what IP law was made for. Could they not sue whoever into oblivion? I suppose some other foreign company would do it anyway but still. Then you go after the platforms that host the content. Lobby them to develop tools to detect infringing IP. I just feel like enabling this without some extreme guardrails in a closed system is a speed run to totally diluting every brand asset you have. It just makes no sense. Who is going to pay to watch a movie when they have seen slop from that character a million times?

Serious_Swan_2371

I think they are making a bet that there’s ultimately no way to protect it moving forward. They can either shape an ecosystem around ai content themselves or be shaped by it. People will develop tools that can recreate their assets with or without their permission, but if they create the tools early and gain a competitive advantage over other tools, they will at least be the ones making money from it and have some degree of control over how the IP is used.

themostofpost

How could this possible backfire in any way? I think it’s a huge misstep. They should have just protected their IP properly.

Serious_Swan_2371

They will. Not only will they make money by being part owner of OpenAi, but they are going to decrease their adspend significantly. People will be making short form and long form animated content with their characters and going viral. It will be hard to go on TikTok or reels without seeing memes made in Sora using Disney characters. They likely believe there’s no way to stop that from happening so they want to get ahead of the curve. That lets them control how their IP is used to an extent because they can implement rules in their platform, and if they get out ahead and are widely adopted then no unlicensed version that wouldn’t implement rules would ever have enough users to make it worth investing in catching up to Disney. That’s essential for them to stay a family friendly brand.

SlothFF

As with any collectibles, it ebbs and flows but the IP has been very hot pretty much my entire life. Cards have been collectible for 100 years now but if I ever see pokemon trend the way of the beanie baby, I'll get out ASAP

Pixelplanet5

probably a typical AI hype move where Disney wants open AI to train a model specifically for Disney IP so they can generate new bullshit with AI instead of actually animating it.

Binder509

Be funny if all this AI shit leads to the end of IP law and just destroys any value these companies have.

Aceous

If you read the other headline from today, Disney sent Google a cease and desist. What they're probably thinking is to play one AI giant against another. If OpenAI is supposed to have the Disney IP, they'll fight Google on copyright infringement. They're getting the AI bros to care about copyright.

MagnesiumKitten

Sure! Peraso Incorporated 2033 Gateway Place, Suite 500, San Jose, CA, USA, 95110 Peraso Inc is a fabless semiconductor company focused on the development and sale of: i) millimeter wavelength wireless technology, or mmWave, semiconductor devices and antenna modules based on its proprietary semiconductor devices and ii) performance of non-recurring engineering, or NRE, services and licensing of intellectual property, or IP. The company's primary focus is the development of mmWave, which is generally described as the frequency band from 24 Gigahertz, or GHz, to 300 GHz. Geographically the company generates revenue from the United States, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the Rest of the World. IPO Date 2021-12-20 Poor Future Performance **Profitability Mediocre** **Growth Good** **Risk High** Valuation ? Not enough information on a $1 Penny Stock to get any kind of assessment but I can see that most of the other semiconductor industries have much more promising metrics Momentum Mediocre //////// It's 172% overvalued Stock Price $1.11 Fair Value 41 cents /////////////

Shapen361

I only viewed the deal as Sora and their users control the AI content, not Disney. I could be wrong. But my way I feel like all you do is infringe your brand value by turning the value of your IP into the weakest link of whoever creates the worst slop with it.

postwarjapan

It depends on what your distribution of winners are. Cash/debt is optionality imo. If you don’t take risk, you will not grow your earnings meaningfully and stagnate. Case in point, K-pop Demon Hunters was bought for Pennie’s and now you have a new billion dollar IP. It doesn’t alway pan out but Netflix has won here multiple times.

SirTiffAlot

Counter point, they don't need to be creative if they can just buy up existing IP.

cwrighky

This feels less like Disney risking brand dilution and more like a strategic move to get in front of an inevitable shift. Not because trademarks or IPs disappear legally overnight, but because their practical enforceability and cultural control weaken as large and local multimodal models proliferate. In that context, Disney being involved with a dominant AI personality like ChatGPT is a way to retain relevance and influence rather than fight a losing battle over ownership and attribution. IP likely continues to exist on paper, but its ability to function as the primary mechanism of control erodes as generation, remixing, and distribution scale beyond centralized enforcement.

cwrighky

This feels less like Disney risking brand dilution and more like a strategic move to get in front of an inevitable shift. Not because trademarks or IPs disappear legally overnight, but because their practical enforceability and cultural control weaken as large and local multimodal models proliferate. In that context, Disney being involved with a dominant AI personality like ChatGPT is a way to retain relevance and influence rather than fight a losing battle over ownership and attribution. IP likely continues to exist on paper, but its ability to function as the primary mechanism of control erodes as generation, remixing, and distribution scale beyond centralized enforcement.

iDontLikeItHere00

From chat gpt. Fact vs cap at the bottom. This is a classic high-conviction Reddit pitch, so let’s break it down cleanly and unemotionally—what’s real, what’s hype, and what actually matters if you’re thinking about SES AI ($SES). --- What SES AI actually is SES AI (formerly SolidEnergy Systems) is a lithium-metal battery company, not a lithium-ion tweak. Key distinction: Lithium-ion → graphite anode (today’s EV batteries) Lithium-metal → pure lithium anode (higher energy density, harder to commercialize) Lithium-metal theoretically enables: Longer EV range Lighter batteries Faster charging Better performance for aviation, drones, defense But it’s technically brutal to scale (dendrites, safety, cycle life). --- The partnerships (this part is real, not fake) SES does have legitimate partnerships: GM Honda Hyundai Important nuance: These are joint development programs, not mass-production contracts Automakers always hedge with multiple battery vendors “2026” is target validation timing, not guaranteed revenue So: ✅ Real partners ❌ Not guaranteed revenue yet This is pre-commercial tech risk, not a cash-flow story. --- “MU-in-a-Box” — what that actually means This is the most interesting part of the post. MU = Molecular Universe SES uses AI + simulations to model electrolyte chemistry Instead of building endless physical prototypes, they run massive simulations MU-in-a-Box = On-prem AI hardware + software Lets customers run battery R&D locally No cloud, no IP leakage Why that matters: Defense & aerospace hate cloud Auto OEMs guard chemistry IP like nuclear codes Governments require on-prem systems This is not a battery product — it’s battery R&D infrastructure Think: > “NVIDIA for battery chemistry before NVIDIA sold GPUs” Still early, but strategically smart. --- Where the Reddit post goes off the rails 🚨 1. “ONLY lithium-metal player” False. Competitors include: QuantumScape Solid Power Toyota (internally) CATL (quietly) SES is one of several, not the only one. --- 2. “Stupidly undervalued” That’s opinion, not fact. SES is valued low because: No mass production yet Negative cash flow Commercial risk is still high Battery timelines always slip Markets discount execution risk, not ideas. --- 3. “$4 by January 1st” That’s pure Reddit chest-beating. To hit $4 quickly, SES would need: A production contract announcement Or a government/defense deal Or OEM confirmation of lithium-metal adoption Without that → price action = speculative swings only. --- The real bull case (short and honest) SES wins if: Lithium-metal becomes commercially viable OEM partners choose SES chemistry over competitors MU-in-a-Box becomes a recurring revenue platform Defense/aerospace adopts their tech first (likely earlier than EVs) This is a venture-style equity, not an investment-grade stock. --- The real bear case SES loses if: Lithium-metal remains unsafe or too expensive OEMs delay adoption past 2027–2028 Cash burn forces dilution Competitors beat them to scalable production Battery tech is notorious for: > “Always 2–3 years away” --- How to think about this stock (important) This is NOT: NVDA NBIS A cash-flow compounder This IS: A speculative deep-tech option Binary-ish outcome Needs patience + risk control If you play it: Small position Treat it like a LEAP, not a core holding Expect violent volatility --- Bottom line Fact: SES has real tech, real partners, and a smart AI angle Cap: Guaranteed success, “only player,” near-term moon If you want, I can: Compare SES vs QuantumScape vs Solid Power Break down dilution risk Look at insider ownership Or map a defined-risk options play instead of shares Just tell me how you want to play it.