IP

banned-from-rbooks

Oracle is a legal firm disguised as a Software Company that’s taken on $58B in debt and entered into $248B in Data Center lease obligations that they can’t possibly pay for. Their cloud business was already being left behind by their competitors for years, as they’ve increasingly relied upon aggressive software licensing. Remember when they tried to claim the entire Java programming language as their IP? The AI boom has started to sink the ship. Their gross margins have fallen off a cliff due to Capex and PP&E depreciation costs. They bought TikTok, a social media platform that is popular but also loses billions a year. And those data centers? Oracle has $548B in AI compute performance obligations for demand that just isn’t there. Construction is so far behind that the best Oracle could say was that 96,000 B200 GPUs were delivered to Abilene in December 2025 for a datacenter that \*has to have\* 450,000 GPUs operational by the end of 2026. And the best part? Oracle \*still needs\* $73B more worth of GPUs to meet the obligation. Meanwhile, the depreciation costs of all those GPUs that aren just sitting in warehouses has to be marked on the balance sheets as revenue loss. I believe it is after 6 years those GPUs will be worthless, regardless of whether they are used or not - and even if AI demand takes off, B200s are not going to be competitive with NVIDIA’s new chips. The banks that finances Oracle’s debt are \[desperately trying to get rid of it, and no one is buying. Banks are stepping away\](https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/td-cowen-us-banks-retreat-from-oracle-amid-doubts-the-company-can-fund-openai-commitments/). Things have gotten so bad that Oracle is being sued by their own bondholders. Oracle is going to default on its debts unless it can build 4.5GW of Data Centers by 2028, for which it needs to take on even more debt - of which it \[already has $95B outstanding\](https://archive.is/2026.01.11-014118/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-06/oracle-s-debt-unlikely-to-trigger-cut-to-junk-grade-ubs-says). It also needs OpenAI to pay a colossal amount of money. But this is the Stock Market, which isn’t based on fundamentals, so overall I’d say the outlook is extremely bullish.

8thSt

Just listened to Acquired podcast on Disney. Walt died and the company didn’t produce any meaningful IP for a decade +. Luckily they had decades of existing IP to carry them through. Musk ain’t no Walt. I suspect the company will implode (I mean really, what has he truly built lately but an ugly truck and some fancy accounting magic?), but should something survive then one day some visionary may be able to resurrect it. At the same time, I don’t see Musk as a visionary as much as a snake oil salesman. So maybe I’m biased.

F1R3Starter83

It’s all based on IP theft, therefore the only value is in the data centers and not the system itself. US makes Claude, China copies the entirety of Claude and renames it, Europoors copy it from China. The only value is in data centers and what makes them go bzzzz

Entreprenewbeur

Imagine someone smart enough to engage in insider trading (1) not know they are insider trading and (2) not know their Reddit posts are tied to IP addresses and are discoverable lmao

EngRookie

same is happening with nintendo. everyone keeps talking about hardware numbers. failing to realize that revenue from merch, licensing, and IP expansion is increasing every quarter. most people can't recognize a pivot until it is already too late to invest. all people care about is increasing revenue and fail to capture nuances of increasing margins and new revenue streams that are slowly building

_thisisvincent

FBI tracking op’s IP as well speak

Optimal_Image5192

The problem, at least for SaaS stocks (not as a business), is that markets have priced SaaS as high margin businesses. With AI, you have to start asking if these companies can charge the same per seat. It affects their pricing/negotiating power. And market doesn’t know how to price that into the stocks yet. I’ve started rotating into software this last month, because I think there are specialized softwares that have lot of IP moat or are deeply embedded in hardware and cannot be replaced by AI, because how long the component lead times are. I wrote about $FIVN, but I also like $CRNC, $YOU, $MITK, $BB, etc. All these have performed really well as the market starts to price in their moats imo.

Derpapotamus

Maybe I'm biased because I did the same DD independent of you, and came to the same conclusion, but your evaluation is spot on. What makes it more juicy is their Dana Farber cite showing it helped with patient selection for Enhertu (AstraZeneca's monoclonal antibody cancer treatment). If they get a Companion Diagnostic deal, it's beyond mooning. It's going to $10 overnight. The problem, which Jeff Busch identified immediately, is the value is trapped in a dumpster fire wrapped in a tire fire. Ignite is commercial stage. It works, it's backed by Medicare, and it has been shown to be very useful and of interest to big pharma. But no one will touch it because it's in the process of burning down. Better to dump $10m into shorting it, bankrupt them, then buy the IP for pennies on the dollar. And now the current situation is somewhat interesting. They've reached the 1b share cap, so they cannot dilute any further. Which is good for shareholders, but bad for them. They need cash to make it to September and finish the merger. Bear case is still very, very valid: They're swimming in toxic debt. They've just been delisted. The price is in the gutter. They're on the brink of bankruptcy. The bull case however, is also valid: They're sitting on hundreds of millions in locked up value. It's value that has evaluated by a 3rd party at $150m, so even if you don't trust my DD, Copley did their own research. The new guy at the helm has built one billion dollar medical REIT empire. Maybe he can do it again. This isn't even to mention Adimune and Pearsanta, two other assets they own that definitely are promising.

Imaginary-Case3976

Yep. AMD, QCOM and Intel spent over 2 decades or more chasing Nvidia and you think a startup with limited capital can tame the dragon while the others with almost endless capital can’t? Starting a new chip company from scratch is hard. Ask Google and Amazon and how much they spent. The best hope is for cbrs to get brought out for its IP when it’s down 70% from here

DrSenorChuckles

Ok, but listening to all the interviews of the ai giants they all say the same thing, the tech has pretty much hit the limit of what it can do with the tech we have, there is massive competition entering the field and little room to make a breakthrough that will keep gains this consistent, ai IP theft is through the roof, etc..

Designer_Professor_4

I'd be hard pressed to say that SpaceX/xAI and it's money draining X have assets, IP, and questionable moat around SpaceX worth 858 Billion. Twitter was 44 billion before Elon basically eviscerated it, that means you value SpaceX and XAI as roughly 800b and some change. That's bold. 150 per share is just outright fantasy land, but meme stocks are real.

Extension-Temporary4

The problem really is poor management and Evan will never give up control.  The sum of the parts could be worth something thought. They have valuable IP, valuable data, valuable good will, a substantial user base … there is a business here. It’s just clouded by bad management and an awful dual class share structure. 

Extension-Temporary4

At this price point I actually find it interesting.  I actually like snap. It’s a worthwhile shot in the dark at this price point.  $1.1 billion in cash and $2.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents. $3.5 billion in total debt, comprised primarily of long-term convertible senior notes.  Total Assets: $7.5 billion. Revenue from Advertising: $1.24 billion (81% of total top-line revenue). But, advertising grew at a modest 3% year-over-year rate. Not great but growing.  Revenue from Subscriptions & Other Streams: $285 million (up 87% year-over-year). 25 million paying subscribers and has achieved an annualized revenue run rate (ARR) of over $1 billion.   Total Revenue: $1.53 billion, an overall increase of 12% year-over-year. Net Income: ($89) million Net Loss. Improvement from $140mm net loss last year.   Adjusted EBITDA: $233 million (up 115% year-over-year).  Operating Cash Flow: $327 million   Free Cash Flow (FCF): $286 million (up 150% year-over-year) Days Sales Outstanding - DSO: clients typically pay within 60 to 75 days. Large brand advertising agencies up to 90 days. Don’t love this but fine, at least they are paying.    Days Payable Outstanding - DPO: 45 to 60 days. Again, don’t love that they are paying faster than they are bringing it in but understandable.  Year-over-Year Growth Expectations:  10% to 15%  Global Daily Active Users (DAUs) reached 483 million (up 5% year-over-year), and Monthly Active Users (MAUs) stand at 956 million. Cost Structural Changes: Management initiated a lean restructuring plan designed to slash its annualized cost structure by over $500 million in the second half of the year. Plus, if not for Specs R&D they would be profitable - a very capital-intensive hardware play. Specs are a drag on R&D costs but represent their primary long-term hedge against mobile OS platform changes. If specs fail, and they scrap the program technically they could convert into a pretty lean business that quickly goes into the black.  Obviously there’s more to discuss but at a high level it’s not an awful business and it is trading at an attractive price point. They have valuable data (not just for advertisers but for training LLM’s), they have valuable IP and they have goodwill. As others have noted, Evan is the problem. He would never agree to sell but if he did, I could see someone buying for the arbitrage opportunity. I think it’s interesting. 

Extreme_Lab_2961

there really isn’t one. Some Investors are still insisting this is a growth stock The C suite doesn’t want to give up that thesis as it will have material consequences to their comp packages. Heres the reality - Their IP sucks & they have very limited organic growth potential

Clearandblue

I disagree. There's some good innovations. Even just the approach of only running the neurons needed for the task at hand is a clever approach for improving efficiency. And let's not pretend anthropic are the only ones building models. LLMs were invented by Google for a start. Open AI and Anthropic have mainly taking things forward by just going massive with training data, shoving in terabytes of pirated IP. What I'm seeing today can be likened to American vs Japanese motors. A Harley Davidson with a 1.8 L engine may produce 62hp, while a Yamaha with a 1L engine can produce 220hp. You just reach a limit if your main trick is to do everything bigger rather than smarter.

Mobile-Tackle-9477

**:** the upside case (AI memory IP supercycle) is real, but it now sits next to an open federal grand jury subpoena tied to a criminal antitrust matter. That’s not a “might underperform” risk — it’s a “could the legal outcome change the entire business overnight” risk, and it’s basically unmodelable. Nobody — me, the analysts, anyone — actually knows how that resolves. The stock has already shown it can drop 20%+ in a day on incremental news about this

sentientshadeofgreen

I'm attacking the execution of a weak argument. Not much of an argument to attack to begin with, you're just flopping your credentials around like it makes your take stronger. How about the Mynaric acquisition affords RKLB the best lasercom IP for what will be a key component of a 4T TAM in telecom by 2030, a prime in the 1T space economy of 2030, protected by a vertically integrated physical moat in launch services? Layers 1-3 in telco are moving to orbit, the long-term money to be made in how that infrastructure gets in orbit and stays in orbit hasn't been priced in, there is unaccounted for latent demand because the economics of putting things in orbit has been so expensive. As the cost to put things in orbit decreases with competition, it's going to unlock significant spending to maximize speed and coverage which requires moving layers 1-3 to orbit. ASTS is a good D2D play with great IP, but RKLB's IP is postured to do *much* more than simply lob bullshit into LEO. 3/4 of their backlog is already space-system oriented which garners higher gross margin. I look at RKLB as what will be a 250B market cap ticker within a couple years on par with Lockheed Martin, because they are postured to compete in space better than the vast majority of other industrial participants. There is obvious execution risk, space is hard, but the upside is there even if it trades at a premium in traditional models.

Relative_Ad_2297

Here in India, I've seen a few presentations about QSI. Let’s be fully clear, currently the QSI instruments are costing a bomb to run. Proteus will do topsy-turvy of this, so sample running will become dead cheap, but the machine price is a proper *baba re baba*—an eye-watering $425K! I actually don't know what our price will be in India, but I'm sure it's going to be way higher than that! When you compare with Illumina, it is looking very fine. But main issue is, Illumina is giving massive throughput only. And coming to the current requirement: You cannot just do mixie of raw tissue and directly dump it on the instrument. No, *yaar*. The workflow is strictly depending on enrichment or target isolation. What Quantum-Si is telling: They are shouting from rooftops about system's ability for resolving protein mixtures (like 5-to-10-protein equimolar mixes) and finding low-abundance proteins down to 0.5% inside those mixtures. But what is the workflow reality? For looking at complex biological systems, Quantum-Si is fully pushing for Immunoprecipitation (IP) or Immunoaffinity Enrichment. In fact, their June 2026 tie-up with Cell Signaling Technology (CST) is specifically doing focus on using antibody-based enrichment for isolating specific proteins or PTMs before running on Proteus workflows. My thinking is like this... these guys are still not understanding WHY they are building this instrument. It has fundamentally not solved any major tension for applications that hundreds of labs will be doing thousands of times per year. So if someone is purchasing a Proteus, then how many times they will actually run it? Can someone kindly please revert on this? Till that time, my money is staying far away from QSI.

IsThereAnythingLeft-

Your WiFi IP does not give a location, that would be your WAN address. And WAN IPs change a lot, so what are they going to block you every time your ISP assigns you a new public IP? Don’t think so

crocaby

WiFis have IP address, which give off a location

DizzyMajor5

Genuinely you have some of the best TV shows ever on HBO critically and IP that's been around since the 30s. Superman, Bugs Bunny, Tony Soprano these are icons that transcend their medium Netflix has nothing like that. 

DizzyMajor5

100% their content is terrible and they have actual competition now from Tubi, Disney, Paramount, HBO. They have no IP anyone cares about and are up against ip that have in some cases been around for over a hundred years. A hundred years is a long time to foster good will. 

DizzyMajor5

100% their original stuff is bad to the extent it's insulting to the intelligence or it's giving off Dan Schneider there's going to be documentaries about this later vibes. Getting Warner Bros IP would have helped them a lot short term but they probably would have just turned it into slop. 

liuqiu_rangers

Depends on what you mean by "horrible". Most chaebols structurally limit the power of outside shareholders buying into their subsidiaries, but they are very well-run in terms of long-term planning, R&D focus, facility investment, etc. They're like the opposite of western companies, which have (usually) more transparent governance and are good at selling hype but have limited manufacturing capacity, IP, or long-term vision.

Imaginary-Case3976

It’s even easier than that. Take the IP and spin off the parks into a separate company. The parks are doing pretty well anyway.

Herbertand3

> Disney should just take a swing at acquiring a humanoid robot company with stellar tech talent and then build custom robots based on their IP. > Disney can probably sell household humanoid robots to the tens of millions of children and adults who are already bought into the love of those characters and treat them as their in-house companions. You should find a tree and apologize to it for wasting all of its hard work.

Some_Current1841

It’s crazy to me how flat Disney is with how much IP and reach they have

THECapedCaper

MetaAI = Every other stupid chat bot that steals IP and is trying to eliminate jobs

Youutternincompoop

>Disney should just take a swing at acquiring a humanoid robot company with stellar tech talent and then build custom robots based on their IP. the theme park division already has robotics in house lol, they built one of the largest walking robots to date back in 2000 known as 'big dino' before realising that they'd just created a child crushing machine and it could never walk the park safely. https://frankmezzatesta.com/wdi_bigdino.php if they thought humanoid robots were ready for the prime-time they would've put some out by themselves by now, the reality is that humanoid robots are still not practical devices(hence Elon Musk's 'optimus' robots being piloted by humans because Elon is a con artist)

cleverhobbits

This doesn’t make much sense for any party. Disney should just take a swing at acquiring a humanoid robot company with stellar tech talent and then build custom robots based on their IP. Disney can probably sell household humanoid robots to the tens of millions of children and adults who are already bought into the love of those characters and treat them as their in-house companions. How many tech people will buy an Iron Man robot to have around their home office??

Subject-Chest-8343

I mean, seeing AI shorts, I think maybe we might see AI manage to build some sort of TikTok doomscrolling machine that doesn't need human creators to sustain itself... But that would just be kind of a temporal black hole were you kill some time while waiting for the bus. But making a good series, with interesting characters, and a solid scenario that doesn't unexpectedly shit the bed after 3 seasons ? Can you use AI tools to do that for cheaper ? Probably. But it will always require human intervention, and that means it will always cost something, and there will be IP rights attached to it... Which means it will be distributed through platforms, which is a business Netflix is good at.

IdontNeedPants

> I've been day trading in my TFSA Proabbly not a great idea to declare you are breaking tax law. Hopefully you dont log into your reddit account from your home IP.

Khelthuzaad

I would wait til it reaches under 20 P/E All this company does to increase its profit margins is selling IP's back to competitors and increase monthly payments.

ThePurpleDongofTruth

yeah that is how IPOs typically go - nothing to see here I sold about 1/2 my stake at $200 and the other a longer term hold all bought at IP $135 price

NappyDougOut

There is also no "artificial brain" behind this current iteration. It's vurrently scripting, heavily maintained by humans, and heavily dependent on human controls & agendas... The data also comes from past human IP, mich of it already copywrotten, which is a massive legal problem... The design itself is setting everything up to hit a hard brick wall.

GroundbreakingSir386

Games are being managed as a strategic engagement lever tied to franchises with over 120+ games now and retention rather than a vanity metric, which is exactly how they can become a meaningful driver of time spent and IP value over the long term.

Zalvren

I mean the IP and studio was like 90% of the value even for Paramount offer. Yeah Paramount got shitty stuff with it which makes it worse for them. Didn't prevent the overvaluation though, the IP and studios were not worth 27.75$ per share either when it was like less than 10$ before the acquisition talks started.

jack3moto

netflix was not buying the linear cable portion of WBD. Only the IP and studio. It's not even remotely similar to what paramount bought.

jack3moto

as a business they're fine. As a growth stock they're hitting some major turmoil. They've got 300+ million subscribers and are doing a great job pushing people to their ad tier where they're generating $20+ per subscriber in ads alone. They will continue to print cash and have a very sustainable business. That being said, the miss on acquiring WBD, the lack of acquiring any IP over the last 20 years, the miss on trying to acquire Roku. The fact that they're making $250m+ budget movies that go directly onto their platform without hitting theaters is mind boggling. Their IP doesn't generate the money off screen that other major companies rely so heavily on. They're fishing for their next big thing and seem to be coming up short at every turn. That doesn't mean they won't find it but I think they're settling into a more accurate stock price. Do you believe they'll actually improve on their investment strategies that are separate from their current main business? Or do you think this is basically what netflix will be for the next decade. Sports rights are expensive as fuck and the NFLX has put netflix into a corner for 2029 where they're going to have to either put up or shut up on getting into the live rights of the NFL business more so than just 2-4 games per year. I'm pretty bearish on what they do outside of their core business that has grown to where it is today. I think they came in hot and did really really well becoming who they are, i'm not optimistic that they'll grow to be anything different.

weed_cutter

It's not really greater fool theory though. That's laughable. That's for BTC or Tulip rush or beanie babies. Apple stock represents ownership in a company with actual cashflow and IP. Even if the market irrationally hated apple with the fire of a thousand suns -- it's current P/E is 35 ... so 35x earnings ... so "hatred" made the stock trade at 1x earnings. I mean ... you'd buy as much as you can & convince all your friends + allies to do the same. ... That's ... that's how markets work. There is an underlying "there there." With meme stocks and crapto and "beanie babies" and bubbles, there IS no underlying "there there" -- you are fully, totally, completely at the mercy of a greater fool. ....Otherwise you're speaking in crazy hypotheticals. Like what if you owned a house in NYC and moved to Chicago, and for some reason, NOBODY would buy your house for ANY money in NYC and nobody would rent it for any price ... oof, a totally irrational market screwed you! This is simply ... not a thing. Even in the case of Apple ... even if YOU PERSONALLY couldn't finance control, some bug-eyed billionaire COULD wrestle control with enough money or allies ... so ... for that reason, the underlying money machine + control of it --- even marginal portions ... has tremendous value. Saying Apple stock is just as "Greater fool" as BTC is a bullshit argument by Crypto bag-holders who want to claim "everything" is magic beans and greater fool theory. Nope. No it really isn't.

BatFastard502

This is real. I work with numerous private equity-backed, private credit-funded concerns and many of them are toast if rates don’t go down to stop the PIK bloodbath. The reckoning is coming for private credit investors and their borrowers. I feel fairly certain of that fact. The impact on the broader market is less certain to me. This could be a natural selection moment. 2008 hit consumers directly and it was a bottom-up implosion (albeit caused by the top.) This could start and end with the middle, those building almost something out of sketchy debt, and could be an opportunity for healthy, publicly-funded companies to acquire IP and other assets at a discount. It would rock the public markets, for sure, but would it impact the American consumer enough to spark a true recession? I don’t know. It’s an interesting question.

HunterMichael92

Buying at the top also is not wise - Everyone said my last two picks were going to $0 - Lionsgate had No IP they said, now up to 5 year highs post-split, and CAPR was also dead according to Martin S. and here we are at 500% returns. Anytime I post on here, everyone hates the play, then 1 year later, they comment back on their hate. Maybe I won't go 3/3 but I believe we are higher likely to go up vs. down here. AND low debt is wonderful.

YungPersian

Yeah paramount way overpaid and Netflix will buy Warner IP at a discount in a few years. Oracle is glorified licensing company; if/when there is a correction this stock will be hit hard and the Ellison family will need to sell some stuff off.

Oceanshan

Well, they do both chip design and chip fabrication, which are having problems. Build leading edge node fabs is very expensive, so if you don't have customers to maximize its capacity and good "know-how" to keep the highest yield ( lowest defect rate) possible, then it gonna be a huge loss. And on customers side, in one hand, intel is their direct competitor so they would be very wary about IP thief if they order intel to make their chip. In other hand, back in that time( 2023-2024) intel own internal affairs and pipeline is not great, leading to their own chip becomes not as good as expected, so customers, especially the ones like Apple who need new chip fabricated in the latest node every year, not put their whole annual schedule to intel instead of proven fab companies like TSMC, who both good at their job and not having interests in Apple chip architecture

Level10Retard

Is AI not bullish for Netflix? They'll be able to pump out so much more content considering they have all the IP now. People are emotionally attached to the IP they saw as kids / teens.

bankfraud1

Outside of taking a complete accounting 101 lesson, I might suggest watching Martin Shkreli’s “Finance Lesson 3 Apple Model, Discounting Cash Flows” and apply that to TTWO. Based on the intrinsic value you see produced from the model you can buy or sell based on whether that is a significant margin above or below what the current enterprise value is. I dont time the market. I just exit when I find a better opportunity. Nothing fundamentally about this business with 7-8+ IP’s is changing on june 25th. The possibility of a GTA6 is just becoming more material. It will get more material as we get to november 19th. Once GTAO releases we need to examine their earnings to see if that makes more or less money than GTA5 online. Once GTA RP releases we need to examine in their earnings if that makes more or less. This will all take multiple quarters after the release.

Softmax420

Ok, thanks for showing everyone you’re clueless. 1. MS is not a key AI player. They don’t own the IP, they don’t manufacture chips. 2. We’re talking about Microsoft copilot, not GitHub copilot. 3. Google already bought a major stake in anthropic. I don’t know what any of that nonsense statement is about. As someone who builds AI applications for a living, I’m very close to this topic, so apologies if your misspelled ramblings didn’t convince me. My advice to you is to lump a bunch of money on Microsoft and prove everyone wrong. I’ll be waiting for the loss porn.

ShadowLiberal

I mean look at the China video generators, they can already make movie quality content, because they don't care about the IP issues behind the content for the training data. I do agree with the basic premise however. I think it's inevitable that AI will get so good that you can design custom people, dress them up in whatever you want, and tell the AI to have do whatever you want in scenes/pictures. I think someone will eventually make something kind of The Sims for designing fake AI people you can use for this. And when that happens I'm sure that AI porn will get a lot better. But I also think that a lot of Hollywood will be utterly screwed once it's easy to just use AI to generate perfect videos following any story you want. If it's 50 times cheaper then a real film crew/etc. then it's inevitably going to take off. I think that the only people in Hollywood who's jobs will be safe then are writers (since creativity is subjective, so AI will never be able to fully defeat humans there), and video editors (to fix problems in the content generated).

nobertan

IBM — stopped making products and just researched patents. Living off past glories with zero execution. Basically just research future technologies and lay traits for people actually taking things to market. Crazy they haven’t just been bought out and closed down, with the IP transferred over. (Although they keep getting valued like they’re selling something…)

canxkoz

If you have invested into snap and cannot take a 50%-60% drawdown well you didnt invest your money you are just in it to make a few couple pennies. The business is openly working; there is IP creation at a fraction of the companies that trade at multi trillion usd valuations.

_AntiSaint_

I’m not talking about AI adjacent companies or the fakers. I’m talking MU, SNDK, AVGO, NVDA, MRVL, etc. The real cash flow and tangible, enterprise value is in the capex of this cycle. I don’t recommend investing in the LLMs themselves (which will become more of an option soon)… I’m extraordinarily bullish on semis, storage, memory and the like. That’s where all the parabolic growth has come from anyways. Yes, AI from an IP sense is very valuable - we just don’t know the # yet - but the buildout is where everyone is cranking out crazy returns and as they should.

_AntiSaint_

There is not fundamental pricing for this market, and that’s not a flaw. The AI buildout, and the AI IP itself, is a novel space that didn’t really exist prior to a 18-24 months ago. It’s creating entirely new sectors within the space and transforming existing sectors (semis, memory, storage, etc.) that were once highly cyclical markets into highly profitable powerhouses with nearly unlimited pricing power. It’s not going to stay this way forever - we are in a heavy growth, heavy capex cycle - but trying to assign historical P/E’s and other valuation metrics to this AI / semiconductor space with no proven valuation trend lines to rely upon is just misguided from the start. I understand wanting to reach for some sort of semblance of logic or analysis that makes sense of it, but it doesn’t exist. There is clearly value here and lots of profit being generated, but not a soul on this earth knows what the true enterprise value of each of these hyperscalers is. Trade on thesis here, bot fundamentals and it’s much more logical. It’s not a bubble… I’m confident of that. If you can’t measure the value then you can’t determine if it’s been overbought until there’s been a post-mortem in the coming years.

sentientshadeofgreen

As a person who believes in generally efficient markets, I think the value ASTS can offer to telecom is too great to be undermined by pure cronyism, and they already have their FCC licenses. Also, what's great about having great technological IP is that you're not locked into one market, you can compete globally with that, and there is a global demand for this, especially in Pacific Rim nations who have serious considerations about mass-connectivity during emergency situations (ie. earthquakes, tsunamis, China crossing the strait, etc.) The DOD would be shooting itself in the foot to not be working cooperatively with ASTS.

RookieMistake101

This is a fun opportunity. I’m going to call it a SPAC Sandwich! Basically what we have is a company that was public (All Birds) go private. All the assets, the IP, all of it gets sold off in a private deal to another shoe company. Then this smart company basically goes public by buying all birds remaining public shell.

theNEOone

Very strange comment to make regarding how you "don't see how anyone can say Gemini is anywhere near as good as Claude Opus" without even checking. Here's Opus' own table and assessment: https://preview.redd.it/zvxoxsqi8v7h1.png?width=1111&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf7660b239eaf90492f6da9a9d5fa46ab72be8b7 The rough read: **Anthropic** leads on coding and agentic/professional work, **Google** leads on raw scientific and abstract reasoning at strong price-to-performance, and **OpenAI** is the broadest generalist and best at writing. On the crowd-voted LMArena Elo, Anthropic, xAI, Google, and OpenAI all cluster in the top tier within a narrow band. I continue to be surprised by the fact that so many people aren't aware of how strong Google is. They're leaders in many categories and are strong runner-ups in many others. They also have incredible IP, unbeatable distribution, arguably the world's best multimodal data, not to mention they basically invented the technology upon which basically every other LLM is building.

lpniss

Its has been stealing western IP from western capitalist seeking max profit, that model wont run forever, at some point you will have to innovate yourself if you wanna get to top indistry, then others will try to steal. For example EU is pushing chinese if they wanna sell electric cars to set up factories and tell knowhow, ofc chinese are pushing back now. So much for cooperation.

RockyCreamNHotSauce

To produce 40% of rare earth, you need to generate nuclear level waste that would annihilate huge swaths of land, county size, around it. China took decades to learn how to clean it. The scrubbing tech is protected by IP and national security measures. So unless Ethan Hunt can infiltrate and spend months learning the tech in China. There’s no where you can put this rare earth production without a local revolution. It’s like dropping nuclear bomb on their land.

Good_Application6420

Datacenters, distribution, llm of their own (eventhough not big enough today but all llms will be alike one day and become commodity), openAI stake and IP, windows Moat and so deep into corporate world and consumer.. Only company that is big is Google.. Just wait for 6 months until AI picks winners and losers for long term win...

TroubledAcorn

From what I am seeing, it looks like THC Drinks are getting a carve out at the before Nov ban. Thats just my opinion of what is happening politically. If we get certainty on THC drinks RYM will be a no brainer. I think its has potential regardless of the drinks as IP holder for GTI, but with Drinks on the table it has massive upside.

MtGloomy0420

That sounds like a failed industry to attach their lifeline to. Why would an oil company work with $KITT if they can just pretend long enough for $KITT to work out the tech, then go so heavy in debt they implode, and the oil company just swoops in and acquires all IP, tech assets and even key personnel for pennies on the dollar

Thotmas01

Do they have IP rights to a specialty anti-parasitic?

Blue_HyperGiant

That's not really so true. Available resources and tech make quality of life. Billionaires really don't move the needle much in terms of consuming resources. Their wealth is tied up in perceived value of companies - not consumable assets (or unused IP). Even if you magically seized 100% of musks holdings in SpaceX and Tesla you'd still have to convert it to cash (and have it lose 80% of the value while doing so) then you'd have to convert the cash to labor for social programs (school construction/teachers, hospital construction/doctors, farms/famers, ect.) and in the process you'd lose another 90% of the cash.

_thisisvincent

They own Sports, certain Entertainment shows (ex: Animal Control, Masterchef, Special Forces, TMZ, etc.), Fox News, and licensing over local stations that use the “Fox” name. They also acquired other platforms and IP like Tubi, Red Seat Ventures, and now Roku.

Icy_Jelly_315

How would that work? How many different IP addresses do you have in a day? And if you at home just switch off for an hour and you'll get a new one

pigeon_shit

Reddit mods banned gave RPM an IP ban. What did he do?

The_Gordon_Gekko

IPN - IP Not

DaySecure7642

That's why I said that it is overpriced for now, but it is a separate issue independent of the engineering and business potential. Engineering and business wise it really worths that much.. in the future, if starship is operational. There is a huge amount of stuff we need to send to space and the main obstacle right now is the launch cost. But the success of SpaceX also depends on whether other companies can catch up. Normally it shouldn't be possible, but Tesla had a history of naive IP practices that enabled the Chinese EV companies to reverse engineer. As soon as SpaceX can keep the rockets and IPs in house, I am quite confident with its engineering lead. But it is not guaranteed.

gratefulturkey

I buy this as a theory, but what is the target for M&A? The ARM deal already got killed, and they transitioned to the aquihire/IP transfer model to avoid FTC issues with groq.

maria_la_guerta

> If you don't have revenue, you can't pay back the credit. Not at all true. Patents, IP, Real Estate, investments, etc. None of these are considered revenue streams yet factor in heavily to a company's valuation. It is not a "pile of crap" to state that there's more to a business valuation than revenue, it's a simple fact.

Next_Instruction_528

SpaceX's dominance isn't one thing — it's a compounding stack of advantages that has widened into a structural moat most of the aerospace industry still hasn't reckoned with honestly. --- **Vertical integration at a scale no one else attempted** The traditional aerospace model outsources everything. Lockheed, Boeing, ULA — they're essentially systems integrators sitting atop enormous supplier webs. SpaceX manufactures roughly 70-80% of its hardware in-house: engines, avionics, composite structures, the grid fins, the software stack. This means iteration cycles that would take a traditional contractor 18 months happen in weeks. When they identify a failure mode, they own the fix. No supplier negotiation, no contractual change orders, no IP walls between subsystems. The Merlin engine was designed and built internally from near-scratch. So was Raptor — an engine running full-flow staged combustion, a thermodynamic cycle so demanding that the Soviets abandoned it and no Western engine had ever achieved it before Raptor flew. --- **Reusability as a genuine paradigm shift, not a PR talking point** Before Falcon 9, the industry consensus — backed by actual engineers at NASA and ULA — was that reusable rockets were theoretically possible but economically dubious because refurbishment costs would eat the savings. SpaceX proved that wrong by actually doing it, iterating until the refurbishment cost dropped to near-trivial. Falcon 9 boosters have now flown 20+ times routinely. The economics are transformative: an expendable Falcon 9 launch was already cheaper than a Delta IV Medium. A reused booster on a reused fairing compresses that further. ULA's Vulcan, Ariane 6, and ISRO's current generation are still partially or fully expendable. SpaceX is essentially operating on a different cost curve entirely. --- **Raptor and Starship represent a genuine generational leap** Raptor is the highest chamber-pressure engine ever flown — running above 300 bar, full-flow staged combustion, methane-fueled. The performance ceiling is substantially higher than Merlin, Vulcan's BE-4, or RS-25. Methalox was also a deliberate long-game bet: methane is producible on Mars via Sabatier reaction from CO₂ and subsurface ice, which makes Starship the first rocket architecture designed with interplanetary self-sufficiency as a first-order constraint rather than an afterthought. Starship itself, if it reaches operational status, makes everything else in development look incremental. 100+ metric tons to LEO fully reusable — compared to Falcon Heavy's ~64t expendable — changes the economics of what you can deploy to orbit. Large space stations, point-to-point Earth transport, genuine Mars missions without orbital assembly: these stop being multi-decade fantasies and become near-term engineering problems. --- **Cadence as competitive moat** In 2023, SpaceX conducted more orbital launches than every other nation and company on Earth combined. Launch cadence matters because every flight is a data point. Their telemetry and failure analysis pipeline is running at a rate that compresses learning timelines by an order of magnitude versus any competitor. When Starship had its first integrated flight test failures, SpaceX iterated faster between attempts than NASA takes to convene review boards. The "move fast" ethos is real but it's backed by the vertical integration — they can actually implement the changes they identify. **Institutional culture as structural advantage** This is harder to quantify but real. SpaceX recruits from the tail of the engineering distribution and runs on a culture of extreme ownership and rapid iteration that traditional aerospace contractors — constrained by cost-plus government contracts that actively disincentivize efficiency — literally cannot replicate without structural reform. Cost-plus contracting rewards complexity and delays; fixed-price contracts reward speed and cost control. SpaceX built its culture around the latter before it was mandatory. The talent density compounds the technical advantages.

FortheredditLOLz

Adobe took every opportunity to f\*ck their core customer base at every single turn, sentence, email and conversation. Which has now eroded their literal growth. I can’t wait for them to fail, so someone buys up their IP and open sources it.

Case17

If the costs go up 10x, i still think we’d pay for it. But we might control it more tightly. I do agree that at some point it doesn’t make sense, but right now the cost is minuscule. Yesterday I did a comprehensive IP survey in my space, and created a strategy and next steps. I put in 1h active time on my end. It helps significantly that i know the right questions to ask, so it’s not just blind AI use. I need to follow up with maybe 8h of patent reading and analysis. Without AI, this would have been a full time project taking a few weeks, and my brain getting overwhelmed by trying to keep track of details. AI is an enabling capability, and to me, the cost/benefit ratio is currently minuscule when compared to traditional methods. I asked Claude to estimate the total cost in tokens converted to $. About $25. I’d easily pay $250 for that; i wouldn’t think, i”d just go do. And if the AI task failed for some reason, i wouldn’t even be bothered by that cost. . I’d even pay $2500 for that, but might think carefully before executing. You have to consider not just the time saved, but the speed; competition lives and dies on speed. I wouldn’t pay $25,000. That’s too expensive. But i will add that all of that analysis was done in Claude Max mode with me repeatedly asking for more detail. Save money by lowering Max to High, etc… That’s the best I can personally say for myself and my company. I can certainly see how the cost will be a non-starter for consumers; Sonnet or other low usage models will be fine for them.

mattawara

Fine, I’ll bite… their product families: Creative cloud - everyone’s already focused on this. Also threatened by good ol fiver. Document cloud - native OS capabilities are eating this all day, and Docusign is doing the last mile. Experience Cloud - giant fucking turd of a platform. Only in use because of shady deals. Ai makes the integration easier which makes the al la carte approach more feasible for large corps. Still some good IP, but the structure is falling apart at the seams.

Rock_or_Rol

Circular financing, oligopoly semiconductor pricing, poorly reported semi depreciation, insane inflation levels amidst increasing buildout financing, increasing semi and open source LLM competition after the US spent decades dropping manufacturing for service and IP Totally sustainable

maria_la_guerta

> Only income should factor into the valuation. The valuation is estimated future income. The What? No. Patents. IP. Real estate. Investments. etc. So many stores of value that can contribute to a valuation. Which is exactly why this 'cost makes no sense.

Nearby_Persimmon_649

No other company has their IP and their track record. Not even the US guvmint developed a reusable rocket that can land like it does. I understand if you hate Elon Musk but the company has a moat.

atcgriffin

Sorry if my math was wrong. I was saying just the physical property and IP would be worth over 14B. And how long till twitter and xai contribute to share value in your eyes?

No-eat-eat

Yes! Conversations were casual at first, then they started asking for pictures. They traced my IP!! Found my socials. And spammed my DMs

DarthJDP

the rug pull doesnt happen until the NASDAQ includes spaceX. It might keep climbing up. Look at how initial coin offerings go, it doesnt always get pulled immediately after it opens. Sometimes they keep the charade going for a while. Also, Musk has the full might of the US government and military behind him. He can simply remove competition from open AI and anthropic. Anthropic already took down mythos and fable so the government can look through it and Musk can distill those models. So it might be a viable business eventually by taking out the competitors and stealing their IP.

jakderrida

\>>NASA had reusable rockets 70 years ago. To be clear, 3rd parties used by NASA had IP on them. One thing the Elon-worshipping cult I've had to remind them of is that even the Apollo mission to the moon involved over 93% of expenditures going to 3rd parties. Somehow, nobody knows that.

lifeisaonewaytrain

I think their vision is more where they own all the IP and corporations and 99% of people receive a small amount maybe $500/mo a month for spending money. They might do a food bank for free food, and then people could receive less per month and then spend the $500/mo spending money on existing corporations and brands. This way the established corporations that are on top now will always stay on top. This might be part of the reason why the billionaires have gotten into politics.

NotAnotherRebate

I bought 100 share of the IP. Whatever single stock I buy tanks soon after. I'm doing my part. I'm sure it will drop like a flaming rocket right before I'm allowed to sell those shares.

Short_Log_42069

**$AMPG — shorts piled 33% of the float into a stock breaking a 5-YEAR base and I'm holding 100 ITM calls like a fistful of lottery tickets 🚀** **Position or ban: 100x Oct 17 '26 $5C, avg $3.36, \~$39K notional. Yes that's real. No I will not be taking questions from anyone who bought SOFI at $25.** **The company (yes there's an actual company):** AmpliTech. 23-year-old radio shop from Long Island that spent two decades quietly making amplifiers so cold they run at 4 Kelvin for literal quantum computers, then said "screw it" and built the **only US-made O-RAN certified 64T64R massive MIMO 5G radio.** That word salad means: every carrier on earth that doesn't want Huawei or a Samsung monopoly has exactly one American option, and it's this $200M company with 47 employees. Revenue $9.5M → $25.2M (+165%), Q1 +48.6%, 48% margins, $20M backlog, $18M cash, ZERO debt, guiding $50M+. Shipping to a Tier-1 North American carrier that's named in actual SEC filings. I checked. I read them. My wife left anyway. **The setup:** June 8 PR drops → +27% → smashes through the old 52wk high → smashes through the 2024 quantum-pump high → now in blue sky for the first time since 2021. $5 to $9.30 in SIX sessions on 10x average volume. Stock has a bell on my phone like a cow in the Alps. **Now the degen part 🌶️**: my broker says short interest is** 7.29M shares. The float is 22M. That's 33% OF THE FLOAT SHORT**. And it TRIPLED on the way UP. These geniuses are shorting a breakout in a stock where one 8-K — one purchase order from the carrier they're ALREADY shipping to — turns the exit into a clown car door. 4-5 days to cover. We've seen this movie. I have the popcorn and October expiry. **The part the rocket emojis won't tell you (read it, regard):** shorts aren't suicidal, they're playing dilution. \~9M rights convert at $5/$6 — that's 36% more shares, first wave lands **July 18.** Management dilutes like it's a religious obligation — they top-ticked their own chart with an offering in 2021 TO THE DAY. CFO and COO both sold in the $5s last month. And this whole leg ran on a PR that contained zero — ZERO — new orders. This is a knife fight between squeeze fuel and a paper printer. I'm just here with leverage and a calendar. **The calendar:** rights expiry 7/18 (company pockets \~$22M, overhang clears). 5G IP deal closing due this quarter or next. Q2 earnings mid-Aug where the COO already promised revenue "definitely much higher" than Q1. My Octobers outlive ALL of it. That's the whole trade — I paid \~$0.15 of time premium. It's stock with 2.4x leverage for people whose risk manager is a Magic 8 Ball. **Exit plan (yes I have one, I'm degenerate not stupid):** ⅓ off near $9, ⅓ near $10, runners through earnings. Daily close under $5 = thesis dead, I take the L and post it. Closed today \~$8.49. TL;DR: real revenue, only-American-vendor moat, third of the float short, 5-year breakout, 5 months of dated catalysts — vs guaranteed July dilution from management that has never once seen a candle they wouldn't sell into. 🚀🚀 *Not financial advice. Positions shown. My exit liquidity could be YOU.*

Dry-Interaction-1246

Yes, exactly, plus NASA IP that went into it.

the_mammynun

You have to look at the long term, global opportunity. No cannabis brand of the future is going to set up massive grows and ship all over the world.  Two of the best examples in the industry are Wyld and Grøn, and even Wana pre-Canopy. These brands are present in every legal market of the US, and Canada because they focus solely on brand partnerships with growers and invest all their capex into the CPG aspect. In no time, these brands will be present in Europe, and in every legal market worldwide. And not just whatever they can produce themselves.. their brand power will enable them to sign contracts with the biggest and best local growers. Why? Because their products sell.  I'm not saying Auxly can't do it, but I'm saying right now a lot of their capex is tied up in inefficient grow ops. That's because Canada doesn't currently import and that's their core market. I get it. But looking ahead they'll have to think bigger. They've got a great start with the vape tech since that IP is a bit harder to replicate. But this is going to be a long road and a very competitive one.

Lilmjk

Also: Der CRA, NIS-2 und DORA sind eine Steilvorlage für QNX und übrigens auch SecuSmart. Btw 275 mio Autos sind QNX basiert. Die neuen Generationen auf QNX 8.0. Das heißt mehr Einnahmen. Durch die ISO-Zertifizierungen bzw. TÜV Rheinland bzw. BSI-Komform und NATO restricted, haben die schon einen Markt. NVIDIA setzt im igx3 auf QNX Dann haben wir da: NXP, Intel, AMD, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, ARM, Apex.ai um auch auf ROS2 nutzbar zu sein, Renesans QNX ist secured by design. Die Marktposition ist ziemlich gut. ABI research hat QNX als overall leader im Robotic bereich ernannt.  Man kann sich auch gerne den CIBC-fireside Chat aus Mai anschauen. Oder die Baird Konferenz aus Juni. Tim Foote erwähnt mehrmals, dass BB und QNX nun wieder eine "growth company" ist. Naja, aber das ist nur ein Ausschnitt des Gesamtbildes. BMW "neue Klasse" oder den Leapmotor D19 noch nicht erwähnt. Oder den TKMS Deal oder den mit The IP Company oder den J&J AI heartbeatpump deal usw., bzw. ALLOY KORE in zusammenarbeit mit Vector, welches gerade von Mercedes eingearbeitet wird. Nur meine 2 cent zu dem ganzen. Oder wir schauen halt auf das BlackBerry von 2013. Kann ja jeder machen wie er möchte.

writeonfinance

Shareholders got wiped out, RKLB got the assets/IP.

Pulga_Atomica

Yeah but does Tesla have AI IP that can create kiddie porn on demand?

Frosty_Promise8050

They are knee deep in another Clippy situation with AI. I have friends who work there, and they are a sinking ship. Lost at sea. They have too much IP to disappear entirely, but they are going to really, really try.

writeonfinance

RKLB got the IP and assets, shareholders were wiped out: [https://candlewoodpartners.com/mynaric-ag-announcement/](https://candlewoodpartners.com/mynaric-ag-announcement/)

oh_man_ohjeez

Coming in late, but you're hitting the nail on the head. I've financed a portfolio of bloom fuel cells before. O&M is a nightmare. Their fuel cells require near constant maintenance to maintain anything close to their contracted output and efficiency factors. Bloom is the only company able to perform maintenance on their systems because of their IP. In order to be financeable, you need an extra (expensive) insurance product or some sort of IP lockbox agreement that gives you their IP in the event of a contractual uncured default (their systems stop producing the way that they should). Given that only Bloom can perform maintenance, I'm high skeptical that they can scale effectively to be able to meet this GW-level buildout demand. With that said, it's a timing thing. Theres probably another 1-3 years of runway before we see any sort of material adverse effect on their financials, which means a lot of room to grow. Really hard to short the right now.

Ordinary-Conflict404

sigh.. again NOKIA never made their own chip; Marvell has been Nokia's primary custom ASIC partner for the ReefShark chipset family used in 5G baseband/RAN compute. Broadcom supplies merchant silicon (StrataXGS/Trident-class switch-routing chips and some DSP/PHY components) used in Nokia's IP/optical networking and parts of its mobile transport and switching infrastructure. 1. Operators have not yet monetizing 5G - do you think they'll spend on the costly NVIDIA chips as they are asking for demonstrration on the value revenure generation. even if they spend then NOkia is a beneficiary:Nokia's AirScale portfolio is being adapted to run on Nvidia's ARC/Grace platforms as an *option alongside* its custom silicon, not instead of it. Nokia gets to sell into hyperscaler-adjacent telco deployments (AI factories, edge AI, private 5G/6G for enterprise) where Nvidia's brand pulls budget toward Nokia hardware. 2. **The photonics/optical angle is** ***more*** **exposed to upside, not downside.** If AI-RAN drives more compute to the network edge and more east-west/AI-cluster traffic through telco infrastructure, that's incremental demand for the optical interconnect layer — directly benefiting Nokia's Infinera/photonics business (San Jose fab, co-packaged optics positioning). Nvidia's Spectrum-X and AI networking pushes are *creating* the optical bandwidth demand that Nokia's photonics arm is positioned to capture.

HailNana

No, it's not. They just forced foreign companies to parnter up with locals so that it doesn't make the same mistakes like most other countries where the big conglomorates made all the profit and took it back home. Yes, IP theft happened, but not enough to justify that it's solely based on that.

_AntiSaint_

Have you seen then the margins generated by semiconductor, memory, and storage companies? It’s insane. Like 70%+. Profitability is the last thing I’m concerned about there. As far as actual AI goes… it’s not a cash flow play. It’s an IP play with cash burn utilized to increase market share which will (eventually) be used to bludgeon other models into acquisition and consolidation. I doubt we have more than 2-3 core AI models in 2 years time. The companies with a balance sheet and access to capital will be acquiring lesser models or models in deep financial problems. I’m not a fortune teller, but my personal thesis is that GOOGL, AMZN, and one of MSFT and/or META will be entirely running the AI show in 2-3 years time.

shtoops

OpenAI isn’t a random VC-backed startup. It’s arguably Microsoft’s most important strategic partner. “Anthropic buys OpenAI’s IP for pennies” scenario is pure regardium. Microsoft will be the one to pick up the pieces.

thisisintheway

I think the answer is - being first to market isn’t always great. You front load a ton of R&D for other companies to build upon, as well as learn from your failures. The reason OpenAI would cease to exist isn’t because there can only be one AI, it’s because OpenAI became insolvent and Anthropic or Musk buys the IP for pennies

Overflow0X

I'm not going for lower, or same. I liked the job, the coworkers, the stuff were were working on was exciting (a lot of new IP). The layoff happened because of people on a whole other continent, completely divorced from reality.

cat-from-the-future

Sell man, AI is going to completely disrupt apps, SaaS business already lost trillions in valuation on the public markets…someone is offering you 25x sales on something that will easily become obsolete with AI is a gift. Just make sure you’re not selling any IP unique to those apps that could be valuable elsewhere. Is there any kind of data you collected, patent, or anything that someone might otherwise be offering you this much for your apps.

GuyFieriFrostedTips

Why didn’t Batman just sue Edward Nygma for IP theft? Gotham’s civil docket was probably full up…

TheKingInTheNorth

The deal was done before they owned the IP, they certainly didn’t have the control you’re implying.