IP

ComputeBeepBeep

I am convinced this is why they are okay with lending so many GPUs to companies. When the small AI companies default, they get their GPUs back and they can acquire their IP if it was collateral, but even then they may just buy it out cheap.

gothpunkr

Bullish venture commentary is already citing Note 8 to claim Anthropic has an **85.4% gross margin** in H1 2026. **This is analytically flawed.** Unlike traditional enterprise software—where R&D builds perpetual IP that can be sold for a decade—frontier AI models (Opus 4.5, Fable 5, Mythos 5, Opus 5.5) have an economic shelf life of **6 to 12 months** before they are rendered obsolete by the next generation. Under US GAAP (ASC 730), Anthropic expenses training compute as incurred inside R&D rather than capitalizing it. However, economically, **training compute is recurring Cost of Goods Sold required just to stay in business.** A true economic gross margin must burden revenue with a major portion of R&D compute and cloud marketplace rev-share fees. When comparing total Compute & Infrastructure ($8,945M) plus Marketplace/Partnership fees (embedded in the $3,168M S&M line) against $16,286M in revenue, true economic gross margin is closer to **30%–40%**, not 85.4%.

Cybertrucker01

I dont disagree, but the end result is the same: the Chinese 'labs' have avoided burning up billions. As long as they can steal by distillation, they will. If I was a Chinese company where US IP law isn't enforced there is every incentive for me to do the same. Not saying its good or bad, that's just the rational economic decision.

zbern

Rambus Inc. (NASDAQ:RMBS) • Record quarterly revenue of $218.3 million, up 22% year over year, exceeding guidance range • GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.69 and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.84, exceeding guidance range • Record product revenue of $114.3 million, up 15% quarter over quarter and 22% year over year • Expanded product and IP offerings for next-generation AI systems, including industry-leading PMIC for LPDDR6 SOCAMM2 and data center-class Root of Trust security IP "Rambus delivered record quarterly revenue and earnings that exceeded our guidance, with strong customer demand driving record product revenue and record cash from operations,” said Luc Seraphin, president and chief executive officer of Rambus. “We continue to expand our product and IP offerings to address the growing performance requirements of next-generation AI and data center infrastructure. Through ongoing execution on our roadmap and accelerating demand for our differentiated solutions, we expect an even stronger performance in Q4 and are well positioned to deliver long-term profitable growth and value for our stockholders.”

Double_Suggestion385

Not necessarily. Things like IP can be amortized.

brainrotbro

So this almost seems like house cleaning— they acquired and incorporated the IP & now they don’t need the extra employees.

r2k-in-the-vortex

Yeah but... that will not work. You can't put that genie in a bottle, whatever nerfing you do, whoever needs to get around the limits simply rents a server and runs their own local models. And if it's necessary to exit unfavorable regulatory environment, then the world is wide open, companies may successfully lobby against race to the bottom on pricing in US, but good luck doing the same in China or elsewhere. And if it's race to the bottom in one country, it's race to the bottom in all of them, because there is no customs for trading tokens, or on AI generated IP.

BoldestKobold

> I think like with most new industries, there will be a few winners and a lot of losers. This is basically the story of every major industrial boom and bust, especially in industries where a lot of infrastructure spending was involved. Notably look at railroads from the industrial revolution on, and you can see the pattern play out across multiple different countries in the same way. Everyone pitches themselves as either infinite growth, or "growth won't be infinite, but we'll win." Well turns out not everyone can win, and eventually bills come due. Eventually a bunch of companies will go bankrupt, and someone will come in and swoop up whatever IP and infrastructure is worth buying, for pennies on the dollar. Note this is not a judgment on the viability of the technology itself. Just like trains are still a massive technological marvel that radically changed transportation, doesn't change the fact 95% of the private companies that built and ran railways all died off.

iD-10T_usererror

Demand for free use of Grok? The $8/month version? What happens when all of these tech companies, all of whom entered this space at the same time, decide they can't keep hemorrhaging money by giving away their products for free? To put it another way: Even if you saw the future value of Amazon as their business shifted to online shopping, if a dozen similar businesses started at the same time and were all offering discounts on their services to get you hooked, would it have the same intrinsic value? I think not. If Elon can stand-up xAI in the short amount of time that he did to complete with ChatGPT (it's only been around since 2023), and it is a comparable product, then what is special about either company? Where is the moat? There are hundreds is thousands of AI companies and millions of AI models. If these were truly innovative companies with strong IP advantages the leaders in this space would be suing others and winning legal battles to keep that advantage. Instead, they are just trying to aggressively purchase the same hardware everyone uses to gain the only advantage they can get- compute power. It's basically a land grab. That's just one huge sign of weakness that everyone should have noticed a long time ago. The other big indicator of weakness is the new narrative around regulation. The tech bros are dropping not-so-subtle hints that they want government regulation. Here's the narrative in a nutshell: AI might destroy the human race! We can't patch the bugs in time! But hurry hurry hurry because China will take over if we don't get this done! And if they take the lead, we're all gonna die! But don't worry, as the experts here, we'll work with the geriatric leaders in government to write the regulations to keep everyone safe and America at the forefront. And can we please get a letter from the government that says you will bail us out if this doesn't go well? Bullshit. Big tobacco did this maneuver. They want a regulatory moat built specifically for them by their buddies in government to keep competition out. If allowed to do so, they will write their own rules to keep others off the field of a game that anyone else can play on with overly onerous regulations. Big sign of weakness.

Cryptocenturion2

No, supply and demand is what I the holder am willing to sell it for. Coinbase laughs at you because they aren’t willing to sell to you for less than what the coin is worth. You can’t sell a company’s IP, equipment or anything else if you only own shares in it. Can sell what you like if you own the whole company and have no board of directors. Then you can do what you like.

blipblapbloopblip

yes, so supply and demand is what others are willing to pay for it. The community setting the price is what others are willing to pay for it. Coinbase laughs at you because they are not willing to trade with you at 60k. My point is that when people say the price is whatever someone will pay for it, they mean this community mechanism. Ultimately this is true for every asset, but stocks and bond have collateral that don't exist for crypto. You can sell a company's IP, equipment and real estate ; you can seize a person's home, so that puts a floor on these assets' prices. When you buy bitcoin you just buy a collectible token hoping people will buy it back later. It's not bad or anything, it's just a matter of fact that there is little underlying value. There is some, in terms of cash reserve and illegal payment, decentralization if thats your thing, but there is no collateral you can sell off if the value of bitcoin goes to zero.

Open_Pollution_8038

Ooo look at me I’m the Netherlands, our largest and most successful company, ASML, is entirely owned by American IP and we have to give Washington a handy to export our product. Great living standards you got there bub 

Open_Pollution_8038

lol the Netherlands, the largest company in your country is a butt boy for American IP owned directly by the U.S. military.

Federal-Guess7420

Have you seen the huge influx in cyber security vulnerabilities discovered? These models are the cutting edge in military capability already. There is a reason IP cases in the US and China have been ignored and are constantly being won in Europe.

Basic-Initiative-298

You should only have this mentality when it comes to artwork/IP

illatouch

Software is dead with these new models.  You can train an agent to clone the software and eventually online support.  I'm all for it. They stole all our collective IP and it's time people steal it back from them 

Huge-Bee-9279

Short term maybe, but long term AI and robotics is a blow to China and India. They're main advantages (besides China's authoritarian control over its economy and allowing terrible work conditions to cheapen labor) has been their massive labor force, pumping out STEM graduates, and stealing IP. AI and robotics will massively negate those advantages.

Top-Run5587

What you're doing is great but there are a few steps you could take to improve your security. I would set up VLANs on your home network with one VLAN dedicated solely to the Chromebook, thus isolating it from other network devices like smart TVs, IOT devices, IP cameras, and your Mac. I'd also recommend storing your 2FA TOTP secrets on a Yubikey device instead of your phone (this addresses your concern about SIM hacking). You need the Yubikey Authenticator app on your phone, but it doesn't store your TOTP secrets -- they are on a Yubikey that you keep on your wallet with a backup in your safe.

PassableForAWombat

That is the most optimistic take I have ever seen about SWE/Engineering in my life. All I've seen is job description condensation and more need to reach out to vendors because no one wants to take ownership of IP anywhere :/

OkSucco

Spent most of the cash protecting IP, hiring lawyers basically 

LurkerFailsLurking

The best case scenario is that we can solve the mess this has created by having state and local governments declare data centers are a public blight that harms the community and pointing out that they've been used to generate CP and facilitate IP theft and other criminal activity and then seizing them under a combination of eminent domain and civil asset forfeiture laws.

All-Treck-9999

The security of one's banking / brokerage account is given by the weakest link in the chain. If you access it from your phone (for convenience) and your computer, then the weakest of them both will influence the account security. I would try to use all possible security features the broker / bank offers me: a hardware passkey instead of a software one, an authenticator app for 2FA instead of SMS/e-mail codes, biometric authentication instead of user/password, and so on. Most brokerage apps offer multiple security mechanisms for 2FA. Make sure you disable the weak ones after enabling and testing the strong ones. Don't leave SMS texts active as 2FA if not used. If IP restrictions are possible, use them. You can setup a VPN to your home network and use it to access the bank account through your phone and still use the IP restriction. Use long and complex passwords generated from a password manager. Use strong and reputable password managers. Do not share passwords between accounts. Keep hard copies of your brokerage statements as proof in case the broker gets compromised. These are things we can do. Let the banks / brokers worry for securing their own apps against automated AI hacking tools.

fauxtoe

what IP?

ositola

If you think the US will allow important IP to just pick up and move to China, I have a bridge to sell you

sck178

Who cares if they steal IP from those companies? OpenAI and Anthropic got to where they are by stealing like fucking everything

crankthehandle

Metaverse created tons of IP, the story that just destructed capital with nothing in return is such a dumb take

juuular

Doesn’t microsoft have the usage rights for openai’s IP?

No_Station_7825

Much easier to pick it up in Paramount's bankruptcy auction, no? Incredibly smart of them to get in, increase the price and then nope out. HBO is not what it once was. Yes they have great legacy shows, but for all the shit Netflix gets, HBO has torched lots of valuable IP, too. GoT's rewatch value is in the mud. TLOU was also completely butchered. AppleTV has already established itself as the new HBO.

Outside-Active5283

Judging Anthropics valuation today based on its token revenue is like judging Amazon's valuation in the 90s off its book sales... The revenue these frontier labs will pull in from IP, royalties, patents etc in 10 years will be astronomical.

Brief-Knowledge-629

Amazon also has physical assets. If you purchase Amazon, you get the data centers, warehouses, the trucks, the real estate, in addition to the IP and the business contracts. What do you get if you were to theoretically purchase Anthropic?

EngRookie

1) i literally said i was joking around with you. 2) if you want real advice stop trading options. That's it. Start investing in index funds and put away at least 15% of your income into retirement. If you find that too boring then invest in companies with strong fundamentals, the companies i invested in i researched heavily and invested in them when i believed they were undervalued and i never invested more than i was willing to lose so i could hold through downturns. I started buying AMD in 2020 and kept buying even though everyone shit on them did the same with INTC and averaged down from $43 to $23 and bought shares like crazy as it was near book value under $20. Currently holding NTDOY at (13%) as i believe they are severely undervalued and still being evaluated primarily on cyclical hardware sales(with RAM costs being overblown on future earnings) instead of an IP driven entertainment company. I have invested in many other individual companies too and done well but a lot of that is luck enetering the bull market early but I also saw that the drawdown during covid and the yen carry trade was overblown and invested a good chunk of my dry powder. Which netted me massive returns on my risk. bottom line dont trade options, it is just gambling with extra steps. Index funds over 40 years of investing will get you a decent nest egg but you can boost that with key picks in individual companies. And while i dont agree with margin or leveraged ETFs it can help, in short term bursts, help you greatly outperform the market during bull runs. be prepared to do actual research into companies and read a lot of earnings reports and projections, it will help you tell the difference between momentum and actual value. Good luck, and God Bless Canada and God bless Ryan Reynolds

spellstealyoslowfall

It’s close to its asset value if they were pick apart for pieces, (stock trading at $41, when it’s IP, lease deal, and cash would sit around $35 not to include their current satellites up in space). I’d say the bottom is very near and it has a lot of catalyst coming up. Launch bottleneck is real but they can go through blue origin or even utilize Japan. I don’t think launch bottlenecks will clear out until late Q4. Elon won’t let the company launch without throwing a couple obstacle in its way. Besides that, there’s buyout rumors with them changing 8k filing to protect C suites in case of acquisitions and logically it make sense for MNO to guaranteed a piece of the satellite play rather then rely on a 3rd party (remember T-Mobile relying on starlink and then starlink went and declares to be the 4th rival?) Lastly asts do not have to beat starlink to be profitable for investors. Asts is a fraction of starlink market value and won’t take much for an investment here to go up higher. Think AMD vs NVDA. If you bought AMD in the beginning of the year you’d 100%+ your ROI but no one is saying AMD is a better company then NVDA.

cryptotrader87

Companies like Anthropic are parasitic. They don’t want you to quantify the roi per token since a lot of people literally can’t use it correctly. They steal your IP via the prompts as well.

Extreme_Lab_2961

There’s a market for good long form, unfortunately NFLX can’t seem to develop any. They have zero valuable IP (Why not getting WB cooked them). Theyre going to be the next AOL, surviving on old people that forgot t cancel their subscriptions

OsamaBagHolding

Thats what keeps people hooked. The vast majority of people don't consume that much new content, I've got a buddy who's on his like 12th game of thrones rewatch. I mean look at movies its sequel sequel sequel for old IP. 

bananashakewithice

I mean the business model is only sustainable if the subs keep growing. Which tbh, is a pretty shit business model lol. Netflix needs to focus on good tv instead of gimmicky trash they been on since Covid. Stop delaying seasons, pick up good IP and actually use the movie theatre to promote their shii.

Environmental_Park_6

It's better to invest in all of them. The winner will far outweigh the loser. And saying AI company is silly. A lot of people keep calling blue chip companies AI companies. I could refer to Google as a cartography company just as easy as someone else calls it an AI company. When it comes to the more speculative bets like the neoclouds it would be better to own them all. The winner could easily 10x while the loser can only go to zero. I also don't know if the contracts go away as companies begin to fail. Let's say Open AI goes belly up. Microsoft currently owns between 25 - 27% of the company. They buy up enough to become majority owner and then continue the build out while now having the models, IP, and employees under their umbrella.

LazloHollifeld

Calling it new IP is a stretch when we’re talking about a catalog largely filled with 20 to 70 year old content, and heaven forbid C suite be forced to come up with an original idea instead of constantly recycling the same tired retreaded content. The Harry Potter deal isn’t all that great. They can either work directly off of the original book series and have JK Rowling on there in name only, anything else would give her FAR more creative control over the content and the only thing steeper than her moral decline is her creative.

JPW1195

What the fuck did you just fucking say about me, you little bitch? I'll have you know I graduated top of my class in the Navy Seals, and I've been involved in numerous secret raids on Al-Quaeda, and I have over 300 confirmed kills. I am trained in gorilla warfare and I'm the top sniper in the entire US armed forces. You are nothing to me but just another target. I will wipe you the fuck out with precision the likes of which has never been seen before on this Earth, mark my fucking words. You think you can get away with saying that shit to me over the Internet? Think again, fucker. As we speak I am contacting my secret network of spies across the USA and your IP is being traced right now so you better prepare for the storm, maggot. The storm that wipes out the pathetic little thing you call your life. You're fucking dead, kid. I can be anywhere, anytime, and I can kill you in over seven hundred ways, and that's just with my bare hands. Not only am I extensively trained in unarmed combat, but I have access to the entire arsenal of the United States Marine Corps and I will use it to its full extent to wipe your miserable ass off the face of the continent, you little shit. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little "clever" comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your fucking tongue. But you couldn't, you didn't, and now you're paying the price, you goddamn idiot. I will shit fury all over you and you will drown in it. You're fucking dead, kiddo.

Ragnogrimmus

AI was crashing because coreweave has a scary debtload spaceX just reversed the narrative in the here and now. Govt surveillance is true and apoarently can catch dangerous advanced viruses detectable less than a second after it hits the net. It also gives certain privileges to steal IP if it has the right kind of angle. But.. the reality is this AI has a dark side if used for malicious action... and.. if something does go big.. it would probably happen within the next t years when some mad genius decides to unleash a digital or worse disaster also terminator style robotics could be lurking within 5 years certainly 10. For the doom gloomy stuff. However there is an opposite side to that equation.. in fact there are dozens of sides coming to a theater near you in the short term.

Rock_or_Rol

Sounds cool to me! The other big thing with alt endings or extended seasons is IP. Theres a whole new revenue stream for their IP they never priced into pro formas until recently

magharees

Yeah because Tesla should just get SpaceX IP for zilch with zero repercussions because Elon says so. No conflict

SellingTheta

Bro imagine buying a fucking streaming service in 2026. I have IP TV and I get every fucking show and movie on this planet for the same price and no ads.

Fhyzikz

They have the Avengers IP

Briefcase-3695

It’s on a discount, overall solid company. Pretty good dividend and cash cow. Us gov disrespecting IP, competition from Eli Lilly and the fall of popularity of GLP-1 definitely hurt the company. However eu market is still going to be there. Besides they have lots of government support in the from healthcare providing insulin. I’m down 16% on them and couldn’t care less. I’ll buy some more and hold for a few years at least. Will observe trends and review financials periodically until they have the patent

basalty_monolith

Data center is toxic now (financially speaking, politically it's been toxic for awhile). Up to IP/model companies and chips to support the boom.

vcolovic

Simple. US stole every IP from them. They let copycats sell like crazy. Patents my ass.

Low_Technician9179

So the US invents ChatGPT, AI and will lose because china has more electricity (and no regard for IP). That’s rough

denverpilot

Depends on how long their NSA contracts are for, at least for SpaceX. A new division of Boeing(tm)! Tesla also likely would be bought and sucked dry of IP. Grok would be piecemealed for IP or already up and running data center space. I’m sure there’s already a formal plan for business continuity like anything that big. Whether the shareholders would like it is another story.

JJY199

Horrible company run by someone thats only ever known dumb luck It was very close to burning itsself out in the early days as Zuckerberg didnt have a clue what he was doing i think it was Peter Thiel that came in and basically told them they had to start advertising immediatley Zuckerberg doesn't know what an original idea is the entire company is built and founded upon other peoples IP and M&A However they are a cash machine and are heavily in bed with the current plotical administration who will make sure theres no real lawsuits or regs they have to face When Trump eventually dies i suspect meta could be in big trouble

PyloPower

Imagine thinking Netflix is worth more than all the competitors combined. Because they have that juicy... IP, I guess? Oh right all their IP is shit.

CommercialHour6660

To me the interesting part is China.  US oligarchs were running the well worn Silicon Valley monopoly playbook. Pick a few winners early. Make sure the good olde boys have all their cash in. Use vast weath (not innovation) to get years ahead of the competition. Then shut everyone else out via regulatory capture and monopoly practices.  You can see their different approaches play out. Buy up all the ram for the next 3 years of production. Buy up all the chips. Fearmonger about Gyna and pretend you care about "responsible safe AI" while your agents commit dozens of felonies. Lock down your apis so they're barely usable to protect the IP you stole.  The problem is that China isn't playing ball. South Korean Chaebols will gladly price fix for you and lock your competitors out of the market for a fee. Europe is, no offense, still the US's bitch boy and won't dare build competing industry. China said nah fuck that we'll just make our own RAM and AI chips and models with open weights and hookers and blow.  You're seeing the US tech monopoly that been run by the same broligarchs for decades unravel. Caused ironically by a free market nation like US was once. For the first time the winners weren't chosen in a Signal chat with Musk, Thiel, Sand Hill Rd and the Paypal Mafia. China won't collude with them or stamp out the competition because they want their own AI industry. And China is the king of commodities. Their whole angle is using their vast free market to destroy entrenched inefficient monopolies.  Every time China releases a free model the collapse of US oligarchy comes closer. The latest DeepSeek is as good as Opus 4.7 for 1% of the price. US broligarchs invested in scale instead of model efficiency and now Gyna is out innovating them.  Honestly fuck em. OpenAI and Anthropic were planning for decades of price gouging. The typical you'll own nothing and be happy. They were even talking about everyone having "subscriptions for intelligence". Now we're a few years away from having Claude at home. Running on Chinese hardware they can't gatekeep in their datacenters. 

soareyousaying

Pure AI companies are the ones having trouble generating enough revenue. Their only exit strategy is getting bought out for their IP. Companies like Google and AWS with existing services will benefit the most from AI. AI is an enhancement, not a product in itself. If you've got nothing else to sell, there's nothing to enhance.

evasivelogic

This is a casino, but I suppose I'm drunk enough to answer. Cash hoard, brand awareness and loyalty, exclusivity, games with high prices and long tails, IP, diversification.... but it's all been priced in already, the shoeshine boy told me so!

letsgobernie

This would be absolutely devastating if they tried it. So far they've stolen from lone academics, for instance, the navier-stokes equation. What are they going to do? Ateal from research materials, and published information, rearrange it and sell it back to pharma companies whose whole racket is monopoly pricing rights based on some IP? It would be a bloodbath of litigation

drummer820

All the discussion about whether and how useful LLMs are misses the main point: It’s an obviously stupid business model for a company like CoreWeave to take on astronomical levels of very high interest debt to finance what is basically a high tech version of Rent-A-Center without a real moat or IP

SlowInterest3000

Spot on thesis. Neoclouds aren’t a tech play; they’re a leverage-funded asset leasing play masquerading as software high-margin businesses. The structural decay rate is even faster here than in shipping**.** Ships depreciate linearly over 20 years; GPUs face hyperbolic pricing drops every 18–24 months as new architectures roll out. Instead of cheap maritime financing, neoclouds are paying 10–11%+ private credit rates on hardware that loses 50%+ of its rental pricing power the moment the next-gen chip ships. The current 3–5 year pre-let contracts hide the underlying risk. When those expire, older clusters will hit a spot market constrained by custom in-house silicon (TPUs, Trainium) and hyperscale capacity. Just like legacy ship lessors, the underlying compute infrastructure will survive and power the world, but the capital structures will get wiped out. Value migrates down to chip IP and up to software applications leaving pure-play GPU lessors holding the debt graveyard.

Poka-yoke1

The mega data centers that hoover up everyone's data are going away. Companys will use smaller decentralized applications to minimize IP theft.

purplepistachio

What the fuck did you just fucking say about me, you little bitch? I'll have you know I graduated top of my class in the Navy Seals, and I've been involved in numerous secret raids on Al-Quaeda, and I have over 300 confirmed kills. I am trained in gorilla warfare and I'm the top sniper in the entire US armed forces. You are nothing to me but just another target. I will wipe you the fuck out with precision the likes of which has never been seen before on this Earth, mark my fucking words. You think you can get away with saying that shit to me over the Internet? Think again, fucker. As we speak I am contacting my secret network of spies across the USA and your IP is being traced right now so you better prepare for the storm, maggot. The storm that wipes out the pathetic little thing you call your life. You're fucking dead, kid. I can be anywhere, anytime, and I can kill you in over seven hundred ways, and that's just with my bare hands. Not only am I extensively trained in unarmed combat, but I have access to the entire arsenal of the United States Marine Corps and I will use it to its full extent to wipe your miserable ass off the face of the continent, you little shit. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little "clever" comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your fucking tongue. But you couldn't, you didn't, and now you're paying the price, you goddamn idiot. I will shit fury all over you and you will drown in it. You're fucking dead, kiddo.

Olangotang

They starved smaller labs, hence why China is able to play catch-up with Open Source. The large corporations invested in this because their investors and executives are mentally unwell from "infinite line go up". They deserve their IP getting reverse engineered and stolen, and there is nothing they can do with Open Source models out. They are so fucking regarded that they supported a tool that can destabilize the system itself.

magikarpe94

They’re moving into the IP business hard, only reason in my mind that would justify that number maybe not right away but likely in the future. Definitely not a fan of their obfuscated non standard accounting practices but they seem well poised

farsightfallen

It's really hard to build a business that costs 100s billions to train a model, and then other companies can just distill it down for 10s mns, that's 90% effective, for 99% of the work by volume. Unless they get some IP protection or regulatory capture, it's going to be an uphill climb. Claude is amazing, but if I had to pay API prices, there are better solutions for most of the work. Maybe strategic use of fable or w/e for release review.

nomdeplume

Actually most companies at large scale are not stuck on their b2b solutions. Which is why gateways exist. At the labs today a very small number of very large customers make up their rev. Those large customers have the resources to swap inference. You call opus or you cal sol, but swapping it is actually painless. Part of how easy it is to use inference lowers switching costs astronomically. Until they can make IP worthy models in niche markets that can't be distilled (they can't do this btw) they have no most other than capacity and brand

ObservationalHumor

Market is insanely bearish on the company despite there really not being any better plays out there. Paramount is loaded up to the gills with debt after its recent acquisitions, Peacock is likely to be sold to Netflix, and Disney is way more mature and bigger behemoth of a company with even less opportunities for growth. Similarly Apple TV and Amazon Prime Video are both part of far bigger and more mature companies without much existing IP either. I mean there's a argument that the prior P/E of 40-50ish was too aggressive and it won't get there again but reading this thread you'd think there was someone else out there doing everything right and that both Skydance and Oracle weren't both up to their eyeballs in debt. Who's the faster and more agile player here? Where's the better growth opportunity? Who is going to out maneuver them? It's possible it goes lower but damn if it doesn't feel like we're at/near peak pessimism on this stock.

Me-Regarded

Have change your router mac address, new IP, new phone honestly as well

convicted-mellon

I don’t see how they can do that without their IP instantly becoming an open weight Chinese model

MoesOtherBar

They should've spent the extra $2B and bought WBD, better IP than they'll ever have in WB library.

you_are_wrong_tho

lol the spectrum they have rights to is valued at $18b. MC sitting at $18b now. That doesn’t count their IP, factories, 17 sats produced.

Easy_Ease3396

As if US NSA hasn't been doing the same lol? Even the US industrial revolution was based on IP theft stolen from Europe. And of course Europe stole all the tea and silk production trade secrets from China so the cycle just continues 

launchedsquid

they build their own. The age of accepting US arms in exchange for not building their own is over. We've already seen Europe buy European developed early warning radar planes instead of Boeing Wedgetails. The UK has been developing missiles specifically with no US components or IP. The damage is done, and bit by bit Europe is building it's own arms manufacturer capacity. It'll take time, but it will keep happening and US arms manufacturers will miss more and more contracts that previously were almost taken for granted.

NoAd4056

Just checked. Eerything it has used is aloud to be used publicly. This still doesn't move the needle. 2 years ago open source code that engineers built was not accessible to me. Now, within 2 hours and a handful of sentences, I can have this magic robot compile multiple different tools that are of use to me, and have it packaged in a UX that suits exactly my workflow. But you've touched on exactly the pertinent part of the entire inevitable revolution: LLM's and coding agents are now a top to bottom abstraction layer that will bring total software accessibility, of any kind, to anyone, and for incredibly cheap. Specialised software as we know it is going to evaporate. Engineers IP is now completely arbitrary because in the next few years, the magic robots won't even need to rely on open-source code from GitHub. It will just build anything you want completely bespoke, from the ground up, and will do it better than any human who has ever lived. In a very short 10-15 years, the younger generation will look back at the Software Fuedalism of the past and think how wierd it would have been to live in a world where there were only a few dozen programs that worked on an elite level, you had to chose one or two ecosystems to work with otherwise you couldn't reliablely collaborate with anyone and you had pay a monthly fee just to use them. If you can't see that coming you're just idealogically opposed to it out of spite. You can't make a single defensible argument that would suggest otherwise beyond authoritive intervention. Anyway, you've now been categorically wrong 3 times in a row. Any other piss weak strawmans you want to make? I would say I'm engaged enough to blow them over but to be honest they don't even stand on their own

punished_kot

It's not wrong, it's just misattributed. For example, critical bugs are up like 2,000% in the past 5 years. This isn't because AI is shipping shit code, it's because people use AI to identify and create exploits. This *does* massively increase the workload the software engineers are under. We now have to address 2,000% more bugs than we did before. Yes, we can expedite this using AI, but it's difficult to say how much more net productivity we're earning. We're producing more lines of code but so much of that is only to fend off the massive increase in vulnerabilities and exploits. Another example in open source code is that AI-generated contributions have to be meticulously tested and reviewed, creating a huge load on maintainers that didn't exist before. You can also imagine now there will be an enormous effort to protect IP as you watch popular software like photoshop or PS5 games be reverse engineered into free and open source copies, which is effectively AI piracy.

Cold-Reaction-3578

If any of that is true, why the fuck would you tell a colleague? Also there's no such thing as your "own IP" that is related to your job. Most employment contracts explicitly state that you do not own IP on work that is developed using company resources (I.e. your pay and any company equipment)

Proupin

The fallout is going to be a sight to behold. Even if they succeed in shoving AI down our throats, they are never making their money back… never. Local AIs are going to become more and more appealing, run cheaper, more privately, and quick enough, at a rate that is going to outpace cloud computing. And the hilarious part? They’re going to try to shut it down, down the legal path, claiming IP infringment. Fucking LOL. To top it off, companies such as Google and Apple do not give two fucks about AI, as it is not their main bussiness anyway, so they have the firepower to offer AI mostly for free, undercutting Anthropic and friends. AI was always going to be headed towards commoditization. Can’t put doors in an open field.

serpentine19

Might want to read you contract. Any decent company will have a clause saying anything made by ypu that is work related is the companies IP. I have seen many people think the way you do and they got a rude awakening when they tried to tell the company lawyers otherwise.

jld1532

Yeah, we built out and run models locally. We aren't giving these companies our IP.

slickback9001

You can’t really calculate that because there isn’t a set value for anthropic shares yet. If the stake is worth 300B at IPO then that would be about 7% of their market cap but market cap isn’t equal to the value of the assets of the company, it’s also based off of forward earnings, IP and a bunch of other things

SellingTheta

Their spectrum + IP is worth more then their market cap atm.

Easy_Ease3396

The whole Navia Stokes debacle showed why you don't want to put any novel/important IP on any non local AI provider 

PrinceDX

I told one of my Sr. Developers recently that I have my own private account that has workflows and plans related to my job. Any charts I create or work patterns I think through are my own IP and I won’t drop that into the companies AI tools at all. If I go the knowledge of why my systems work the way they do and how I problem solve comes with me. Doesn’t matter what the company is, keep your job security in your own hands

New_Interview5468

One more issue: AI has probably some pretty interesting litigation risks. 1. It relies on other people's data to be trained with (fine if trained by users but there's also a lot of IP protected stuff floating in that training data) and 2. if an AI agent goes rogue or is misused and caused some serious damages there are probably a lawyer or two who'd like a couple of millions by making a case. As long as AI itself is more or less a pro bono thing people, governments and courts are a bit more relaxed than if AI companies were actually making the trillions they promise its potential shareholders.

Samjabr

Yeah, pretty sure I said nothing of the sort. I literally stated China has a ton of Engineers. They are great at copying and then mass producing. Shouldn't be shocking considering 1.4 Billion people and their students aren't encouraged to get degrees in Art-History, French Poetry, or Women's studies. All I'm saying is that some shit is hard as hell to copy or everyone would do it. You don't think American companies haven't thought about getting in on the EUV game? All you have to do is license 1000 patents from the Netherlands, Japan, and the US (assuming you aren't going to commit IP theft...), train your engineers on tech that they have literally never seen before, and then mass produce it. [https://turbli.com/blog/why-is-it-so-hard-for-china-to-develop-jet-engines/](https://turbli.com/blog/why-is-it-so-hard-for-china-to-develop-jet-engines/)

h8beinsober08

And yet they cannot create any products without stealing IP It's almost like you dont know cheating is deeply ingrained in their culture

LightseekerLife

The first point I added is the most critical for your question I think. Existing alternatives couldn't risk the legal battle to clone interfaces and workflows that allowed for an easy transition from embedded Adobe users. So to not lose the high labor that was put into the product they had different workflows so they wouldn't be sued. This product moves so fast and is made so cheap that there appears to be less fear of legal recourse on the creator's part. Legal issues probably will still happen, but it will be too late as the software will be too mature and exist everywhere. Unless IP law is completely rewritten in the next couple of months (which seems very unlikely), then Adobe can't put this cat back in the bag.

Tricky-Visual-771

Wild. [Character.AI](http://Character.AI) filing for bankruptcy and selling assets to Disney for $20M is peak 2020s tech drama, AI hype meets corporate IP hunger. Shows how fast the space flips from "future of chatbots" to liquidation headlines.

callesucia

Yup, you get the tech and preserve your IP. What makes me wonder is if the bigger names like Google and Microsoft will be able to sell AI to users and smaller businesses. Developing and running an in house model is expensive and technically difficul, so smaller companies and non techy users won't go that route.

convicted-mellon

I work at a publicly traded company and literally you could be describing my company verbatim. It’s going in house and trained on local data for security. Eventually I think 95% of companies with important IP will come to that conclusion

BrockDouken13

Chatgpt is the one in trouble anthropic's is for programmers at companies. Copilot for business workers and Gemini for consumers.  Apple can pick up any IP that is worth

TastyCalligrapher421

Agreed. Fuck IP thieves. https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/cxmt-planned-to-use-stolen-samsung-ip-to-develop-its-dram-court-hears-former-samsung-engineer-who-jumped-to-chinese-memory-maker-now-behind-bars

TastyCalligrapher421

As he should, cxmt has repeatedly stolen IP from Samsung and Micron.

bzl33

nah, Google bought their IP and a bunch of their employees joined Google too

MuellMichDoNichtVoll

What the fuck did you just fucking say about me, you little shit? Ill have you know I graduated top of my class in the Navy Seals, and Ive been involved in numerous secret raids on Al-Quaeda, and I have over 300 confirmed kills. I am trained in gorilla warfare and Im the top sniper in the entire US armed forces. You are nothing to me but just another target. I will wipe you the fuck out with precision the likes of which has never been seen before on this Earth, mark my fucking words. You think you can get away with saying that shit to me over the Internet? Think again, fucker. As we speak I am contacting my secret network of spies across the USA and your IP is being traced right now so you better prepare for the storm, maggot. The storm that wipes out the pathetic little thing you call your life. Youre fucking dead, kid. I can be anywhere, anytime, and I can kill you in over seven hundred ways, and thats just with my bare hands. Not only am I extensively trained in unarmed combat, but I have access to the entire arsenal of the United States Marine Corps and I will use it to its full extent to wipe your miserable ass off the face of the continent, you little shit. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little clever comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your fucking tongue. But you couldnt, you didnt, and now youre paying the price, you goddamn idiot. I will shit fury all over you and you will drown in it. Youre fucking dead, kiddo.

foo-foo-jin

And intel and Microsoft. Basically 3dfx was about to win its ip infringement case against Nvidia. Nvidia licensed that ip to intel. 3dfx had already given notice to intel to not use the IP. Intel ignored warning. OG Xbox was going 3dfx. Intel cut a deal in Xbox for copy but required Microsoft to go Nvidia on graphics. Nvidia gave intel even sweeter license deal. Microsoft paid Nvidia for Xbox. 3dfx stock tanked even more because loosing Microsoft with the Xbox. Nvidia buys IP from 3dfx and guts company. Lawsuit is wound down. Shareholder lawsuits start but there nothing to gain at this point as intel has lawyer money that would tie it up for decades. Gg.

TyberWhite

I think there’s a misunderstanding. There is no theft of any IP. These applications are “clones” in their function/purpose, much like how Gimp is a replacement for Photoshop.

PeachScary413

If they claim you reversed and stole proprietary IP of their software you will be in a lot of shit (only valid if the companies you ripped off are large and have their own legal department)

TyberWhite

You’re misunderstanding. There is no legal infraction. We haven’t compromised any TOS or stolen any IP. We have built our own versions of these applications within legal bounds. You don’t need to break any rules to build your own ERP.

LightseekerLife

Large corporations will be the last to move, but also this software runs locally and being open-source means it is actually easier to vet for any malicious code than Adobe's is. In theory, there is greater risk of IP theft from closed-source Adobe software that could export IP without your knowledge than an open-source alternative that is run locally.

LightseekerLife

They don't claim to be a perfect clone yet. They are pushing for end of month parity, which I think that they will achieve. But yes, I agree that outside of legal action and IP law changing, closed source software will be very difficult. For a while, people will keep paying for the entrenched software, but as it becomes equitable and companies get guarantees that they don't open themselves to legal risk with free/cheap alternatives, they will switch over time. It will be a slow bleeding death for Adobe, but I think at this point it is all but certain.

LightseekerLife

I am a software engineer. I have done software engineering vocationally for over a decade. Now, Opus 5.5 and GPT 6 plan code and execute better and faster than I ever feasibly could. It has its limitations in design and taste, but a tool product like this doesn't really require either of those things. Software engineering is a dying field. Unless you are a principal engineer who can do high-quality MR reviews, or a visionary who sees the product that customers need, then the engineers are replaceable. React has 21,000 commits over a 13 year lifespan. Photocraft has 1,700 commits in just over a week. Are Opus 5.5 and GPT 6 perfect? No. But, big companies aren't going to care about phone numbers to call when they can submit a ticket for an issue at 2:05 PM on a Friday and have a patch with a fix by 2:50. Claude can help solve the problem and create the long-term solution faster than the call center agent can even pull up your account information. No one is calling or emailing any more other than companies that will be moving too slow to compete in the market and will die to survival of the fittest. I don't think you understand where this is going and it seems like you are not a software engineer, or if you are, your ego blinds you. Closed source software is about to be impossible to sell unless you have a novel concept that you can quickly capitalize on or if IP law rapidly advances for the new landscape.

Legitimate_Risk_1079

LW | Lamb Weston Holdings - Current Price: $47.87 - Current Market Cap: $6.60B - Bull Target (12–18m): $65–$75 - Bear Target: $32–$37 - Upside: +36% to +57% - Downside: -23% to -33% - Reward-to-Risk: ~1.6:1 - Success Probability: 60% (estimated) - Expected ROI: +12% (estimated) - Forward P/E: 14.46 - Debt-to-Equity: 2.16 🔴 - Dividend Yield: 3.18% - 1-Year Return: -25.9% 🔴 - 5-Year Price Return: Approximately -15% 🔴 - Profitability: Profitable 🟢 - Revenue Growth: +2.6% 🟡 - Free Cash Flow: Positive 🟢 - Price Trend: Long-term downtrend 🔴 - Bull-Case Market Cap: $9.0B–$10.3B - Comparable Companies: Conagra, McCain Foods - Risk: High - Conviction: 5/10 - Grade: B- Lamb Weston produces frozen potato products for restaurants and retailers. I see turnaround potential following improved guidance, but elevated debt, weak shareholder returns, and modest growth limit my conviction. --- GEV | GE Vernova - Current Price: $1,004.73 - Current Market Cap: $267.6B - Bull Target (12–18m): $1,250–$1,400 - Bear Target: $750–$850 - Upside: +24% to +39% - Downside: -15% to -25% - Reward-to-Risk: ~1.6:1 - Success Probability: 70% (estimated) - Expected ROI: +17% (estimated) - Forward P/E: 47.81 - Debt-to-Equity: 0.28 🟢 - Dividend Yield: 0.20% - 1-Year Return: Approximately +66% 🟢 - 5-Year Return: N/A (2024 spin-off) - Profitability: Profitable 🟢 - Revenue Growth: +13% YoY 🟢 - Free Cash Flow: Strongly Positive 🟢 - Price Trend: Strong long-term appreciation 🟢 - Bull-Case Market Cap: $333B–$373B - Comparable Companies: Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries - Risk: Moderate-High - Conviction: 8/10 - Grade: B+ GE Vernova manufactures power generation equipment, gas turbines, and electrical grid infrastructure. I like its exposure to accelerating electricity demand, strong cash generation, and manageable debt, but its premium valuation prevents an A grade at today's entry price. --- BSP | Bending Spoons - Current Price: $38.01 - Current Market Cap: $22.84B - Bull Target (12–18m): $48–$55 - Bear Target: $25–$29 - Upside: +26% to +45% - Downside: -24% to -34% - Reward-to-Risk: ~1.3:1 - Success Probability: 55% (estimated) - Expected ROI: +5% (estimated) - Forward P/E: 23.11 - Debt-to-Equity: 3.94 🔴 - Dividend Yield: 0% - 1-Year Return: N/A (July 2026 IPO) - 5-Year Return: N/A - Profitability: Profitable 🟢 - Revenue Growth: +427.5% YoY, acquisition-driven 🟡 - Free Cash Flow: +$453M 🟢 - Share Dilution: +13.6% YoY 🔴 - Price Trend: Volatile since IPO 🟡 - Bull-Case Market Cap: $28.8B–$33.1B - Comparable Companies: AppLovin, Adobe, Constellation Software - Risk: Very High - Conviction: 5/10 - Grade: B- Bending Spoons acquires and operates digital businesses, including established software and internet platforms. I like its profitability and cash generation, but substantial debt, acquisition dependence, and limited public trading history make the reward-to-risk unattractive at this valuation. --- ENSIF | EnSilica - Current Price: $1.25 - Current Market Cap: Approximately $165M - Bull Target (12–18m): $1.80–$2.20 - Bear Target: $0.65–$0.80 - Upside: +44% to +76% - Downside: -36% to -48% - Reward-to-Risk: ~1.5:1 - Success Probability: 45% (estimated) - Expected ROI: +5% (estimated) - Forward P/E: Approximately 19.9 - Debt-to-Equity: 21.82 🔴 - Dividend Yield: 0% - 1-Year Return: Positive, approximately +69% on London-listed shares 🟢 - 5-Year Return: N/A (2022 listing) - Profitability: Weak/near breakeven 🟡 - Annual Revenue: Approximately £27.8M - Free Cash Flow: Not reliably established - Price Trend: Strong recent recovery, highly volatile 🟡 - Bull-Case Market Cap: Approximately $238M–$290M - Comparable Companies: Sondrel, Alphawave IP - Risk: Extreme - Conviction: 3/10 - Grade: C EnSilica develops custom semiconductor chips for industrial, automotive, and communications applications. I see potential in its specialized chip-design capabilities, but extreme reported leverage, limited scale, and thin OTC liquidity make this too speculative for my preferred investment strategy.