LYB
LyondellBasell Industries NV
Mentions (24Hr)
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Reddit Posts
2023-02-09 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
My school is doing a stock challenge and I need your help
Natural Gas Stocks To Watch As The Energy Crisis Goes Global
There’s a Worldwide Energy Crunch. Here’s How to Play It.
The Current State of Resin: A Short Term Look Focusing on LyondellBasell (LYB) and Danimer Scientific (DNMR)
Current State of the Plastics Industry: A Short Term Analysis of Resin Manufacturers LyondellBasell and Danimer Scientific
Mentions
put KURA and LYB in the mix, you get paid for just owning LYB and it's near 52 week low, or piss off
Shares: LYB, DOW, CAG.
Probably don't count as defensive, but I like LYB and DOW at current prices. They are part of the oil & gas mafia, the current administration will save them if they get too distressed.
LYB mooning, had the trigger on calls yesterday, couldn't get my execution price, missed out on lots of tendies
BASF, DOW and LYB are all sucking wind right now. The sector is down as a whole. My opinion is that won’t last, but I don’t know anything in my opinion has no value.
LYB and DOW shares. Loom out to 5+ years. I don't think the world is about to stop using chemicals and plastics. I think there's good money to be made here. https://preview.redd.it/ck73upwwnk5g1.png?width=1148&format=png&auto=webp&s=20a627ca6d3a5e2457bfba919725be92ccaeb55b
I will tell you my dogs i am not selling: PTLO, OKE and LYB.
LYB has jumped a decent amount past 5 days. Got burned bad earlier in the year by this stock though
Yeah I was optimistic at first when I read LYB's call, but then I though about it more and decided I'm not going to time the cycle. It has been probably the worst cyclic downturn in the chemical industry, especially commodity chemicals. Both companies absolutely need to eliminate them. It would make complete sense for cash preservation, and honestly once they get better view they can reinstitute it albeit at lower payout. I would think for these cyclic companies they should have a conservative dividend and then each quarter have a variable dividend based on previous quarter FCF and outlook. I think FANG does this and it work really well for a capital heavy business.
I think there's still more downside through at least Q2 of next year. With deflation in China I question how long they can oversupply. I think LYB will cut the dividend though and they should have cut already.
I used to be in $DOW but sold a few quarters ago, cash flow was and still sorta is a mess. I was in $LYB for a shot-time but exited after last quarter once there was a bounce. Both commodity names are in a tough place, and I want to own them but they need to cut those dividends. $LYB has been stacking cash for a few years so they can sustain for a bit longer but from a business execution standpoint its just really bad to be selling off assets (even if non-core) and issuing more debt. If next quarter they give better outlook then might jump in. $LYB is yielding over 12% which is kinda insane. I have been eyeing $CC, $SOLS, $Q, $EMN, $DD, and $CTVA lately but haven't pulled the trigger. $CC is only expecting \~4% top line growth next year; however, they have improved operations and balance sheet that its fairly undervalued here. They primarily deal in refrigerants which competes against $SOLS. $DD just spun-off its electronics division into $Q which I was looking over its business the other weekend. I haven't put a thumb on what fair value is yet.
I'm also watching DOW and LYB. I don't think chemicals are going to recover until China stops oversupply though
Funny how LYB is taking off today. Sold my calls too early this morning.
Kind of wish I loaded the boat with LYB
LYB is not using lube and it shows
I think I caught the LYB 🔪 today. Only vip from here
I am one of you. Bought LYB calls today.... I am down money.
DOW, CE and LYB are highly commoditized business with numerous competitor and as I stated ASH has been cleaning up and exiting their poor performing segments. I am waiting for ASH next quarterly report and expecting drastic improvements in gross profits.
ASH seems to be trading no differently than DOW, CE, LYB. The company seems to be facing the same sector risks.
Yeah, I think the DD electronics materials spin-off is more attractive. I’m interested in the aerospace and automation divisions, the materials was holding it down it seemed. Always seem drawn to materials divisions. Looking over LYB, looks like they might be seeing a bottom in PP/PE demand. Not sure if that’s something you are interested in. Sorta boom or bust but lately been floor level bust lol. Was confused because DOW call didn’t indicate anything positive just not worst case anymore.
GIS, KHC, KMB, PG, DEO, BF.B, LYB, FMC, BMY to name a few. Obviously the story for these are not rosy like AI that's why they trade at these valuations.
I need to read through the transcript tonight, but this is really promising for the industry if the bottom is in. LYB has been better at capital allocation in recent to DOW but DOW has pretty much had all the bad news baked in. I do wonder if LYB has a bit more downside risk considering cash flows though?
On better than expected losses, aka there's still a lot of upside and the bottom has likely passed. LYB also popped based on DOW's earnings which is a good sign for the entire sector.
There are a lot of factors causing this, and I think prior comments hit on the big ones. Commodity chemicals like PP and PE are in a massive oversupply with weak demand, think DOW/LYB/CE. Demand is an issue, but also China is dumping alot of cheap products into the market, which is putting strain on margins. Also, low oil prices hurt the margins. The industry was not prepared for such a prolonged downturn as well, so after a while the impact on the balance sheet became amplified (IMO). Specialty chemicals like DD, Corteva, EMN, and CC are expected to stabilize in Q3/Q4.
I think what most people are missing here is that specialty chemicals and products companies like DOW, LYB, and CE produce will be used largely in the physical infrastructure build out for AI. 2026 likely to be a lower rate environment, construction picks up. I mean all these big tech companies are circle jerking money without much of the needed utilities and physical infrastructure being complete yet. They need land, buildings with most up to date materials/planning, and the draw they will put on the electrical grid. The physical construction portion of the build out for AI has really yet to be seen and I think we will see a lot more activity in 2026.
Leaps on LYB and DOW, with the build out for infrastructure for AI, these will stand to benefit both from a cyclical standpoint as well as need for special chems and their products. Maybe not so much chip related, but demand for the infrastructure itself would be expected to rise. The Jan 2027 calls are pricing in 10% move for LYB and 15% for DOW. A $45C for Jan 2027 is worth about $10 right now. If you like intrinsic value plays and leaps, the median price target is $65 for LYB which implies about 100% gain on the $45C. Now once factor in cyclical demand as well as increased physical build demand for AI, my base case is $75+.
Because you said dividends: BST, LYB, PFE, TGT, VZ
Dividend yield is good as long as the market isn't thumping the stock price. Only ENB has come close to matching VTI. The rest aren't even in the same stratosphere so sure, you get a dividend but your value craters. For example, LYB has a total return of 2% the past 10 years.
LYB’s dividend is barely covered and there is a strong possibility it may be cut — by the end of the year. Super-risky investment (at present). If you’re telling others that LYB is an interesting option, I’d certainly put that forth as relevant information.
UPS down 35% last 1 year. Pfizer down 18% last 1 year. LYB down 44% last 1 year. Common man..
Was full port LYB this morning and switched to full port WY (shares 8,600)
I have decent positions in Roch, Novartis, SCHY, and LYB to name few
Kicking myself for not loading up on LYB when it was sub 50
It might be too soon, LYB had a nice rally too
I own Dow, LYB, huntman, and Jack in the box. I don’t day trade so hoping for good turn around in 2-3 years when they cycle back.
Just wanted to add I was in DOW for a long time, terrible capital management that they are correcting. I exited prior to the previous quarter. I intend to re-enter this or next quarter. I am also eyeing LYB. A few other names are CC (refrigerant), EMN (vinyl), DD (speciality), CE (diverse)
DOW and LYB are primarily commodities so polypropylene and polyethylene. They are hit hard by both tariffs and margin compression. CE, Westlake, and EMN have small commodity exposure. If the trough bottoms here, this is a nice base.
CE reports after close today, with how beaten down that sector has been hard to fathom a similar gap down like LYB, DOW, and EMN.
Depends on the company. I bailed on INTEL long ago, but have been buying LYB as it dropped.
I've been looking at DOW and LYB for awhile, they seem to just keep dropping, but yeah, I expect those to go up when all the tech stocks start to go down.
I'm yield chasing on LYB. 11% annual dividend on the price I paid. I need a helmet!
Full ported into LYB today 3,400 shares at $49.80. probably was a dumb idea.
One would think LYB and DOW are close to attractive prices to initiate a long term bag holding position?
The “stock market” doesn’t have to grow, the 500 best companies hand picked by some analysts do. And if you think of it from that perspective it makes a lot more sense For example sears stock went down 99.9% before bankruptcy, but they got kicked out of the S&P500 way way before that, and replaced by LYB which at the same time went up by like 100%
I would avoid DOW from a commodity play. If you want to play that stick with LYB, which has better capital management. They just reported but I haven’t read it yet.
LYB looking a little bit hungry for some downside
Makes sense considering my job site (LYB), we recently started adding disclaimers with tariff prices on our budgets/estimates.
Another pop from LYB or just drop?
lol DOW/LYB/OLN/CE at this point just need to declare bankruptcy...
If you want a high yielded to chill in while you wait for a pullback get some LYB, pays close to 9% at $60 price and is a dividend king. Could see a 20% jump back up but you get paid handsomely to wait 👍
LYB, been buying since it broke 70. Think it’s found bottom, ready to rebound
Part of the DOW issue is they took some bad Ls on a couple quarters. So traditional metrics look horrible. Now if you also go through the financial statements they equally look terrible. I read through last earnings transcript and they are refocusing the company and divesting low margin assets such as the Euro plant division. At this point, it’s a turnaround play. Sadly I’m yet again a loser bag holder as I owned quite a bit from the merger. EMN, LYB, and DD are more value plays with Corteva as growth with the agriculture business.
DOW had record demand in the two noted products. A lot of that was backlog demand from 2020, along with now declining demand. DOW is legacy business and had some bad capital management. LYB tends to be the more conservative play between the three. DOW used to trade at a premium to LYB and honestly this entire sector is all over the place with money still rushing into big tech names.
Basic materials, specifically plastics (polyethylene, polypropylene) like DOW, LYB, BASF, CE are literally just straight down stocks at this point. With so much macro-economic uncertainty layered atop already lowing demand this cohort likely will continue to see their market caps shrink. This is just crazy to me, and yes I get the business sector is very cyclic but this entire sector is pricing in not just recession but entire depression in that industry. Crazy. These are pretty big companies as well that employee alot of jobs. It is likely that even after most of these names being cut in half over the past 12 months, that their market caps today are still going to be peak from 5 years out. Wild.
You can do it, mix Some 5% paying stuff like bonds with some BCD’s and REITs, and some staple stocks yielding really well right now like Verizon (VZ) , Pfizer ( PFE), and Lyondell Basel (LYB). That’s what I do and it lets me keep a bigger % in the broader market for growth.
I currently work at LYB. The management is great in my eyes. Great job security and pay. One of the most desirable engineering jobs in my area of the country as well. I think it would be worth buying and holding but that's just me
I just sent everything to LYB. That 10% looks juicy
I recommend putting everything you possibly can into LYB. Very low share price, and given the 58.50 price, it's like a 9.5% dividend return. Talk to chatgpt about how it can work for you. It's very safe, and a shitload of traders use div payouts to retire. You could retire at 55 or 60 if you play it right.
My goal is 50k, but 100k will make me stop gambling. Will go all in to LYB. I want to retire on dividends.
Anyone looking at LYB? They seem to be the only company that hasn’t recovered at all since liberation day
They said buying LYB options was regarded. They were right 
EU ops for LYB are super soft. Tariffs could potentially boost them, but their enviro policies are super tight. Has caused some strife.
Bank estimates for companies have started trickling in and they are not good... General Motors ([GM](https://247wallst.com/companies/gm/?tpid=1492351&tv=link&tc=in_content)) has been downgraded by Bernstein from Market Perform to Underperform, with the price target reduced from $50 to $35. According to the analyst’s research note to investors, vehicle tariffs have already begun, and parts tariffs are expected to start within the next month. Bernstein’s revised forecast for GM indicates a drop of over 20% in free cash flow and a decline exceeding 50% in adjusted earnings for 2026. The firm argues that GM shares will continue to face pressure as tariff challenges mount and consumer confidence [weakens.UBS](http://weakens.UBS) analyst Joshua Spector has downgraded LyondellBasell ([LYB](https://247wallst.com/companies/lyb/?tpid=1492351&tv=link&tc=in_content)) from Neutral to Sell, lowering the price target from $76 to $51. In a research note to investors, the analyst highlights that although demand has been sluggish for almost two years, the company’s earnings are now increasingly strained by rising costs and a persistent influx of new global supply. UBS views the polyethylene and polypropylene markets as among the most oversupplied within its coverage, a situation that could take years to stabilize, according to the firm.Caterpillar ([CAT](https://247wallst.com/companies/cat/?tpid=1492351&tv=link&tc=in_content)) has been downgraded by UBS from Neutral to Sell, with its price target cut from $385 to $243. The analyst, in a note to investors, suggests that the market has not yet fully accounted for additional earnings risks tied to macroeconomic challenges. UBS predicts that tariffs and ongoing uncertainty will further weaken various sectors of the U.S. and global economy, negatively impacting economically sensitive areas of Caterpillar’s business, such as certain construction segments, oil and gas, and [mining.Delta](http://mining.Delta) Air Lines ([DAL](https://247wallst.com/companies/dal/?tpid=1492351&tv=link&tc=in_content)) has been downgraded by UBS from Buy to Neutral, with the price target slashed from $77 to $42. The firm points to a deteriorating economic environment and growing signs of a potential recession as reasons for the downgrade. In its note to investors, UBS expresses doubt that Delta can avoid the significant cyclical downturn typically seen during an economic slump, noting that the combination of a weaker economic outlook and rising tariffs is likely to hurt both international and premium travel segments, posing a notable risk to the airline.Wells Fargo has reduced its price target for Airbnb ([ABNB](https://247wallst.com/companies/abnb/?tpid=1492351&tv=link&tc=in_content)) from $134 to $100 while maintaining an Underweight rating on the stock. Although alternative accommodations have not yet been tested in a “typical” economic cycle, the firm believes their lower global penetration compared to hotels could lead to slightly better performance for alternatives. Nonetheless, Wells Fargo is lowering its estimates for the company.
Materials have no floor. DOW, LYB, DD, BASF are all going to single digit stocks, market caps under 2-5B MAX.
WHR, KALU, LYB but tax cuts have to pass to keep recession at bay. Maybe buy at third of a position in each and average down, or wait for what looks like a bottom, or just wait for the tax cuts to pass first.
I just can't believe the movement in WTI and companies that have high correlation to it (oil, integrated, and poly u companies)...Companies like LYB and DOW already down 40% on the last year dumping another 10% is just sick.
$NBIS, $GRRR, $CLS, $LYB, $OPFI are on my watchlist and few EU stocks too
Some things are way lower. I'm buying shares of LYB as we speak.
I am loading up on some LYB. Excellent company with a solid dividend.
You can safely make 7% a year which would be around $37,500 and be able to sleep at night. $MO, $PFE, $VZ, $LYB, $ENB, $WPC, $O
FWIW I checked on our new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, and his filings for Key Square. Here are his funds top holdings QQQ, GLD, UNP, LYB, BABA
Well, Lyondellbassel\*is closing its Houston, Texas (Tejas with the Spanish Accent) Heavy crude oil refining plant. LONG LYB
Oil (especially refiners) might be getting sold off especially hard lately due to both mutual funds' annual rebalancing and premature celebration about Israel/Iran. 52 week lows for DINO and PBF. LYB also.
I bought a bunch of LYB during the covid dip for a cost basis of around $51, had the dividend on DRIP and have accumulated more shares over the years. Sold it all this morning at $105! I was not ever expecting to make that kind of return... but it's been a great stock and will be hard to replace in my portfolio.
I love ENB, EPD and SHEL. All 3 are undervalued, but I like refineries also LYB. XOM is my biggest name outside of SHEL, but I might exit for more SHEL and ENB.
The thing is that LYB has UK fiscal domicile although its ISIN starts with NL and it’s a Dutch company somehow. Same for Unilever.
> Thanks but I’m not sure that’s how it works… For instance, I pay UK dividend tax (0%) on BTI shares listed in USA (without considering ADR fees) with ISIN starting with US. Right, so for ADRs, you need to consider "underlying ISIN". You can find that via https://www.adr.com/ . > Similarly, I pay UK dividend tax (0%) on LYB shares listed in USA (no ADR fees this time) with ISIN starting with NL. You said that you're from Netherlands, and have that situation with NL-ISINed stock, maybe that's what's related? All in all, I'm sharing my experiences based on a couple of dozens dividend stocks I have, where it works (yeah, I kinda do sample purchases to see the situation with dividends). I imagine there may be more complex corner cases. If you have an idea how to deal with them, please share. For LYB, I'm waiting for a good entry point, and not sure I own other NL stocks yet, though some are definitely on my watchlist.
Thanks but I’m not sure that’s how it works… For instance, I pay UK dividend tax (0%) on BTI shares listed in USA (without considering ADR fees) with ISIN starting with US. Similarly, I pay UK dividend tax (0%) on LYB shares listed in USA (no ADR fees this time) with ISIN starting with NL.
If I knew for sure that a solid sized dip was coming, I would absolutely implement a 100% short term t-bill strategy with my portfolio but no one knows! That's why I buy and hold the SPY. Yeah, it goes up. Yeah, it goes down. Ultimately, the earnings for 2024 could come in at $200 a share OR they could come in at $260 a share. The real driving factor of the market is sentiment and human psychology. Further, I don't invest with money that I need so I am comfortable riding the wave. The above being said: I have about 65% of my portfolio in 1 month T-Bills because, to your point, I'm not going to let a 5% return (on an annualized basis) pass me by in hopes of stocks continuing to go up! I'm going to take a virtual guarantee from the US treasury and live to invest another day. In my nearly 20 years of investing the 1 thing I have learned is that, no matter how well I know a company, or read the economy, etc...I'm not good at timing things. That's why the SPY is perfect for me. Further, I "dabble", in individual names, ALA: Adobe, Google, LYB (swing trades only), etc...Fact is, there are a lot of ways to make meaningful returns in the market.
> LYB why LYB? its sitting at the same price it was in 2014. Its not exactly a growth stock..
First, every young persons portfolio should start with SPY or VOO. Secondarily, from an individual stock perspective, I like: Goog, ADBE and LYB.
I bought LYB on a dip in mid-March for about $85/share... I was confident it would bounce back, but I didn't expect it to be this quick. Hitting $97 today!
Bought LYB and UMC earlier this week on red days... looking like I timed those pretty well. Both good dividend payers, and hopefully I'll get at least 2 payments from each before I cash out.
The large industrial gas suppliers like APD, LYB, and LIN all have hydrogen divisions. They aren't pure fueling plays, but they are great businesses in general.
# Tickers of Interest - TL;DR **Gamma Max Cross** * [LYFT](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#LYFT) 03/17 15P for $0.80 or less * [SOXS](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SOXS) 03/17 20P for $2.20 or less * [ABR](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#ABR) 03/17 12.5P for $0.10 or less * [ITUB](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#ITUB) 03/17 5P for $0.20 or less * [LYB](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#LYB) 03/17 95P for $1.80 or less **Delta Neutral Cross** * [MU](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#MU) 03/17 62.5C for $1.80 or less * [JD](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#JD) 03/17 57.5C for $2.65 or less * [M](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#M) 03/17 23C for $1.00 or less * [HD](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#HD) 03/17 325C for $10.05 or less * [MCD](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#MCD) 03/17 265C for $4.15 or less # Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today. This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0. For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals. The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV. # Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle * If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open. * Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. * I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in. * The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. New price movement may invalidate the original thesis. # FAQ - Because others have already asked. * These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? * No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. * Are you entering all these plays? * No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn. * You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean? * The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not. * Where are the crayons? I only see words. * Click the links above. * Have you back-tested this? * Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error) * What is the historical performance? * The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.88 with a 66% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 60% and 78%. (Stats as of 2023-01-31)
So, [which one of these names](https://imgur.com/a/i47TKJR), specifically, is shutting down refineries to unjustly enrich themselves? Because there have only been 7 total crude oil refineries that were permanently shut down, help me understand which of MPC, SHEL, PSX, LYB are shutting down assets to manipulate the global price of refined products? Each operator would have to (a) spend 6 - 9 months going through the process of abandoning these assets and (b) spend hundreds of millions of dollars to safely abandon these assets without incurring massive fines / lawsuits from state and federal governments.....so in what world does that make economic sense? Here, I'll pick a random asset from the chart above - Alliance, LA refinery owned by PSX. Total costs of shutting down = [$150mm](https://www.bamsec.com/filing/153470122000189/2?cik=1534701&hl=6291:6296&hl_id=n1zo-npo6) as of Q3 22. And, lo and behold, it looks like Phillips shut down this asset because......it got royally fucked up by a [cat 5 hurricane in 2021](https://www.bamsec.com/filing/153470121000217/1?cik=1534701). So, you know, a completely reasonable explanation, rather than doing whatever mental gymnastics you had to do to come to your "coordinated gasoline / diesel market manipulation" conclusion you posited.
PDI UTG DOW LYB MSFT GOOG TSLA (just kidding LOL - "Prosecute/Fauci" jesus christ)
Frankly, and I’m doing the same, I like a portfolio that is 75 % stocks and 25% bonds. The 1 year T bill is yielding over 4% and you only pay the feds. (No state and local taxes). The S&P makes up 66% Google, LYB, ADBE, INTC make up the remainder. (Intel being a new position). The S&P is the benchmark so it’s hard to go wrong with it, although, I’ve been looking into the equal weight S&P because I think apple may have some pain in store.