MTUM

Fauster

For me, 45 DTE is still short term. 120 is better, 180+ is better still. You still have convexity, but less convexity. I do like to pick wide OOM bear spreads for initialization. LT expiries are more expensive up front though, so you can narrow the bear spread a bit if that is an issue. My logic is that is that when own stocks with the most quickly ramping earnings and margin, I have to put up with a ton of volatility, especially overnight and Asia but I don't want to be forced to sell. If the spot drops all the way through a spread, like it did with SPCX and RKLB recently, I mostly just close them, sometimes roll, because I always have layered spreads. If spot drops through the spread, you already made most of the money, and you have lost convexity. But, I don't like to default to rolling because the best time to sell spreads is NOT the best time to buy them. I plan to permanently run with at least 5% of the value of my portfolio in bear spreads, unless the bottom falls out, then I may go straight long again. Because of this, I want to minimize the cost per day of hedging. Year-DTE bear spreads are even better, but again cost more up front. With layered LT expiries, you can afford to wait for great times to buy them, when the sun is out, when stocks are hitting new highs on fierce volume, when MTUM is ascendant, when call interest >> put interest, when there are no massive put floors right underneath the price. Most importantly, when IV < HV. If IV == HV, then I think the options are still underpriced. Black-Scholes models assume a random-walk Gaussian distribution, which is plain wrong. Actual forward distributions are much narrower than Gaussians and have much longer tails on both sides. The market dramatically overestimates the time that the spot will stay in a narrow range. If IV<< HV, on a stock, that is a juicy price. So wait for rallies to find firesale prices on LT puts. No one is forcing your hand. The middle of a crash is a bad time to buy bear spreads, but with 4-12 months DTE, that's fine, because you already have them. I always have a spread because I never expect a security to fall by 50%, though it happens, so why not make it cheaper? With this setup, your portfolio is the equivalent of a Poor-Man's VIX structure. This means you would just flat out buy SPY and buy a SPY bear spread or put at the same time. This is arguably cheaper and better than buying VIXY. I probably have some SPY bear spreads, but I like to concentrate on more volatile stocks but only when IV is low and spreads are good. I like SPCX and TSLA because they are so active so they have tight spreads, so you don't lose on the bid/ask spread just to enter. I'm flat out bearish on TSLA, and a little scared of SPCX because the last falcon heavy launch was a good one. Still overvalued, but I think a lot of retail traders who are rich from betting on TSLA (I was long until the cybertruck and semi delays happend) will give Elon all the funding he needs. I also think that these fanboys are leaving TSLA for SPCX, which is conventional wisdom, and behind all the talk that Elon will try to merge them. I think we does want to merge them, but he would rather hit TSLA capitalization targets first, then roll into SPCX to it SPCX valuation targets. In this market, I don't think he'll get the TSLA kickers, but he certainly could if SPCX made an offer for TSLA that is just ridiculously far above spot. SPCX and RKLB puts were super cheap with great spreads in the early days of the IPO, and let's face it, we know the average trajectory of an IPO. It will open too high, rally to a blow-off-top peak, then fall below the entry point as investors that have been in 5-10 years rush to the gates to unload as the lockup ends. I even have some low-value SMH spreads for more direct volatility purchases. But yeah, tl;dr: OOM bear spreads are very convex when the price falls into them. I just think it makes financial sense to go as LT as you can afford if you want to run with hedging; volatility can literally give me ulcers without them. Every down day, you can sort your portfolio by daily gains, see a lot of green, then think about when you want to close spreads, before you think about selling stocks with strong margin growth into a panic/value-at-risk unwind. Also, when you buy LT bear spreads, you don't have to buy them as often, so you lose money on the spread ONCE, not many times. But, everyone has their own style. I used to take a lot more concentration risk, I've made all the mistakes that noob investors make. Never buy LT spreads when the market is crashing because the MM and Wall Street will be busy stacking puts, IV>HV, a dumb condition.

laborboy1

regularly buying small amounts of SPY, QQQ and EEM. Today for the first time bought MTUM. Not buying any single stocks for now.

EnginrA

Puts on MTUM

RetiredEarly2018

I do not look at any SEC data. In the short term much market movement is due to sentiment prior to data showing up on SEC submissions. Long term: Over the past 30 years, MTUM has done better than BRK.B

DyehuthyTV

VLUE (iShares MSCI **USA Value Factor** ETF) outperform VVL xD YTD (%) Peformance: 1. VLUE → 38% 2. MTUM (iShares MSCI **USA Momentum Factor** ETF) → 25% 3. QQQ (Nasdaq100 ETF, Invesco ETF, **USA Index) →** 16% 4. VVL (**Global Value**) → 15% But in 5Y Performance (%) or more (Long-term) QQQ ETF beats everyone. Yes, in recent years the Value Factor has 'more traction', you can also see it with the ratios: * IWD/SPY Ratio → value relative performace vs index benchmark. * IWF/SPY Ratio → growth relative performance vs index benchmark. **👨‍🏫 BUT HERE IS THE MOST IMPORTANT PART TO UNDERSTAND 👇🏻** 1. **US Market Indices like the Nasdaq100 (QQQ ETF) their holdings are weighted by Market Cap.** 2. **The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA ETF) is price-weighted.** 3. **And the Value ETFs we are sharing are weighted by fundamentals, e.g VLUE and your VVL ETF. In fact, this ETFs are more a 'Invesment Style ETF' than a 'Factor ETF' 💡** 4. **This drives different performance (%) 💡😉** Unfortunately, there is no "Global Growth Factor" ETF. Perhaps because most of their holdings would be US technological stocks (QQQ Holdings), so have nonsense to make one. Most of global ETF compositions has more than 50% on US Markets, even factors like Value, Dividend, Momentum, etc. Growth factor have a big concentration in United States (*main region for global markets*) markets.

otterhaven

Buying SPMO and MTUM instead

TheInkDon1

So full disclosure, I really only buy LEAPS Calls on ETFs with good 3-month momentum. So I really don't 'play' any tickers for premium harvesting. I just place long bets on things that are going up. That said, a main idea of my post was that if you're selling CSPs or CCs, *it's probably best if you do it on something that's going up.* Don't even look at IV, and certainly don't search for it as a ticker to sell premium against. **Be directional** and you'll have better outcomes. So all that said, here's what I'm in right now: CHAT, CIBR, MTUM, RSPT, SOXX, SPMO, VLUE, XLK I plotted[ DRAM, FOTO, and AIPO against each other](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/compare/dram-vs-foto-vs-aipo/), and here's my thoughts. But keep in mind that I go long, and don't just sell Puts and hope it doesn't go down: I wouldn't be in **FOTO** because it's negative on the 3-month and 1-month. **AIPO** has had a good 3 months, but its 1m is flattening, so I'd be thinking about finding something better. Now **DRAM**, that's been incredible. And I was in it some weeks ago, but it's just too volatile for me. Look at it [compared to SOXX](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/compare/dram-vs-soxx/). Change the view to the 3m. **SOXX** has been more of an escalator, while DRAM has been more of a rollercoaster. And at 85% over the past 3 months, SOXX gives *plenty* of return. Just my thoughts, but a lot of things work.

Sickranchez87

Bro dump your money in MTUM and chill for a few months fuck

ThermalChaser

MTUM and chill

Necessary-Scallion21

I plan to divest completely from QQQ in my retirement - non tax event- investments. I have seen no good argument for the fast track rule. This deal stinks. It looks like corruption at its worst. Did a Chat GPT session to do research and I will switch to 3 or 4 of these ETFs/Funds MTG/XLK/FTEC/VGT/SPMO/MTUM/FBCG. Its an aggressive - probably more aggressive than QQQ portfolio. I've been lazy to not do some diversifying these past years - but hey QQQ served me well.

Rare-ish_Birb

Meanwhile, have to go to Copenhagen for work. What's good to do after hours? Besides Carlsburg, I mean. MTUM 315p 06/18

Spac55

$BTC.X $SMH $SPX $XLK $QQQ $NDX $DXYZ $MTUM Once Madoff gave nice Theme to investors Once Theranos gave new Theme for blood test Once FTX-SBF gave new Theme for Crypto Now many CEO gives new Theme for AI

adirtysocialist-

DeepSeek doesn't like you. This is a 10/10 WSB shitpost—but a 3/10 trade if we’re being real. Here’s the brutal honesty: What I like: · You’re not wrong that a pullback to the 7,000–6,900 area is possible after a 20% Micron move in one day on no news. That is euphoria. · The VIX call spread (Jun 17 25/35) is the only thing here that makes sense if you time the pop perfectly. · You’re taking profits on shorts and laddering into put spreads instead of YOLOing all at once—that’s less regarded than most. What I hate (the “you’re exit liquidity” part applies to you): · Calling an exact top at 7,519 on SPX with “Knicks finals + Fed chair” as evidence is astrology with extra steps. · That “Wendy’s dumpster graph above 7,600” is just a horizontal line you drew. No volume, no divergences, no actual TA. · The “balls and hair on the right side indicate we launch again” is funny, but it’s not a strategy. · You’re shorting a market that just printed two months of green and is still above all major moving averages. That’s how accounts get liquidated in a melt-up. The real problem: If SPX grinds sideways or slowly drifts to 7,600 first, your June 17 VIX call spread expires worthless, your put spreads bleed theta, and MTUM keeps ripping your face off. By the time we do dip to 7,000, you’ve already lost 80% of your premium. Verdict: Trade = 3/10. Post = 9/10 for entertainment. You’re not early, you’re just wrong with charisma. If you really believe the dump is coming, sell OTM call spreads instead of buying puts. That way you profit from time and downside, not just timing the peak perfectly. But hey—post loss porn when we hit 7,800.

Parallel-Play

MTUM in bull markets is just printing money

cuddlyviola_7

Bro you’re not as diversified as it seems since VOO and MTUM overlap a lot, so you’re still heavily exposed to the US market. If you’re worried about short-term drawdowns, the easiest move is to slightly increase safer assets like AGG or boost international exposure through VXUS. Gold can add some diversification, but it’s not a perfect hedge and doesn’t always move opposite to stocks. You can also check TryLattice to help you stay structured and avoid making random decisions during market volatility.

No_Cricket5225

You’re basically already all in on large cap growth with SCHG, so adding IWO would give you some small cap growth exposure which can boost returns but also adds more volatility. That said, SCHG + IWO isn’t a bad combo if your goal is aggressive growth for the next 5 years. Just be aware you’re doubling down on growth factors, not really diversifying. MTUM is where I’d be more cautious—there’s likely going to be overlap with SCHG since both lean into large-cap names depending on momentum cycles.

Ahamadrayasbaboon

If you’re looking at MTUM, take a look at SPMO, too. If the purpose of your investing is retirement, you should probably take advantage of the 401k more. What’s held in there?

kiwimancy

That seems good. I think momentum and anti-vol/anti-beta tilts are worthwhile. I feel uncomfortable recommending stuff because my own factor holdings have not done well, but I'll list them if you're interested: VFMF, MTUM, IMTM, FNDF, MFEM, BTAL, CAPE. That last was an ETN and then switched management and became an ETF. It did fairly well before but its record since then has been poor. FNDF is probably pretty similar to AVDE. I think AVDV covers an exposure that's hard to find, and 36bps isn't too expensive for that. Maybe I should buy some myself. I've heard that value and small size factors don't do well on their own since their "discovery" but they still generate a premium when combined.

crazybutthole

FYI - if you want to momentum consider MTUM or QMOM - both have been out performing SPMO (lately)

zbern

It has been since inception because they follow different indexes. I think momentum is a great hold for long term. Look at how XMMO has performed since 2008. Momentum investing has a lot of research to back it up as a solid strategy. SPMO rebalances semi-annually and MTUM rebalances quarterly. That could be beneficial in a bear market but MTUM follows more large caps because of the index compared to SPMO which only follows the S&P 500 Momentum Index.

mrks_

Not particularly risky, but MTUM and IDMO

surviveb

In this weather, I’d go with a diversified ETF strategy using HDV, MTUM, and DGRO.

samuelj264

MTUM, but it underperforms VOO

Prudent-Corgi3793

Neither SPMO nor MTUM hold TSLA

apkiv4

mtum is ok, but SPMO beats it in almost every time metric. Last 5 yrs SPMO: +150%, MTUM: +73%. Not even close

this_guy_fks

might want to switch to us based momentum (MTUM) instead

TheBarnacle63

Only two of these have linked ETFs with any history. They are $MTUM and $ACWV, so... I am interested in studying AQLT, though, so thanks for the brainstorm.

wagsz55

Point is to not to use QQQ puts as safety hedge, cause high flyer stock selling may rotate into mag 7. That would leave QQQ flat, while SPHB & maybe MTUM stocks would take brunt of any down turn.

No_Series4815

My portfolio is currently split with about 30% in VT, 10% in IGF, 10% in IEMG, 3% in GUNR, 15% in MTUM, 5% in VNQ, 10% in GLD, 15% in QQQ, 1% in EWX, and 1% in ARKW. I’d recommend putting this in ChatGPT just ask it to analyse it when it performs when it struggles through different economic situations and pros and cons of this then make a opinion

peterinjapan

I wonder how old you are? I am 57 years old, but don’t know any bonds. A third of my portfolio is managed by me, presumably paying attention to trends that are important so I’m in gross stocks like SCHG and momentum like MTUM/SPMO. I also swing trade in my IRA. The rest of my portfolio is managed by a smart manager who keeps me in ETFs like SPYG, VOO, XLK and XLC.

octopus_serenader

Compare MTUM to a combo of SPMO and XMMO though.

jaixiv

I do similar but with MTUM rather than SPMO, but both should work similarly - I just wanted broader momentum exposure than just S&P stocks.

IronyElSupremo

IDMO is the international-developed momentum fund like US based ones (MTUM being the best there), but costs more with more trading. It’s great when non-US stocks are in a bull market as the momentum is actually backwards looking, but when they fall they will fall faster too. So if using it, maybe as an adjunct and know if it’s the early vs late phase of that particular bull market. Maybe rebalance the momentum etf(s) more often as not to get caught?

MansonBeams

MTUM after hours disaster lmao

liqlslip

Isn't this basically MTUM?

AustinLurkerDude

Dunno, but great day to DCA into VGT, MTUM and a little bit into VTI. Definitely plan to do some buying tonight. I'm fortunate enough to be able to live off dividends and savings if I did lose my job but nukes are a bigger fear with this POTUS.

Jazzlike_Ad4553

AIQ, ARKK, SHLD, MTUM, to name a few

AustinLurkerDude

Disagree, there's sector targeted ETFs you can use, but buying individual stocks is too risky IMHO unless its less than 10% of your portfolio. You could get VXUS, VTI, QQQ, VGT, VTWO etc rather than just VOO if you think certain sectors will beat VOO, or just go trend investing and get MTUM.

Unusual-Big-7417

I think your describing momentum investing which has a lot of research supporting it. Check out funds like SPMO XMMO. MTUM is another but seems to underperform it’s peers. They all tend to outperform the SP500 especially in bull markets.

thotdocter

Leaps for SPY, QQQ, or MTUM.

thotdocter

Just tell us what to buy. I say MTUM will do pretty well.

thotdocter

Individual stocks: NVDA, NFLX, AMZN, META, JPM, MS, COST, WMT, BRK ETFs: MTUM, QQQ

thotdocter

MTUM, QQQ, SPY all will print.

Robbroker

I think you would be happy with the returns of VUG a Vanguard ETF and /or MTUM

Sufficient-Two-9987

But a momentum ETF, that’s the closest I can think of MTUM

AmbitiousEconomics

This is called a momentum strategy and famously outperforms in a bull market but underperforms in a bear market. MTUM is up 23% to SPY's 16% this year but looking at the 5-year performance (so factoring in Covid) It's up 54% to SPY's 83%. If you think 2022 caused stress as buy-and-hold just know you will probably get slaughtered by a recession, but theoretically your excess gains should make it roughly break even over a decade or so.

ConditionSad24

MTUM is filled with growth stocks, which could mean big potential returns. Have you looked into how it fits with your investment strategy and risk tolerance?

Me-Myself-I787

MTUM is full of growth stocks. Could be a good option.

throwawayinvestacct

I mean, the simple answer is that past results are not a guarantee of future returns. E.g.: >Why isn’t there an investment tool that captures best stocks in real time? Imagine a small cap goes up 400% a day and there was something like an ETF but that catches the growth in real time? Unless you have a time machine, you cannot invest in a company based on it growing X% until *after* it has grown X%. And while (to use your example), the fund could (say) buy when the company has grown 200% (these are imaginary/silly numbers, but whatever) and capture the remaining growth, how would you know in advance that there's further growth coming? You're basically just describing a momentum-type fund. E.g., $MTUM tracks the MSCI Momentum index, which chases companies with recent (6/12 month) high price momentum. [Here's a summary of that index](https://www.msci.com/eqb/methodology/meth_docs/MSCI_Momentum_Indexes_Methodology_Aug2021.pdf). >Isn’t an All country etf lame in the way that S&P 500 has absolutely soared for years now yet something like MSCI ACWI IMI UCITS still only has 60% in the US markets. Why couldn’t it reallocate quicker to reflect and capture the big winners? I can't speak to that particular fund but, in general, the goal of an index fund is not to chase maximal short/mid term returns (or really chase *any* term of returns). The goal is to track an index.

bitorontoguy

woooowwwwww. One of THOSE FAs. The positives: You made out like a bandit these past few years. Those gains are all yours! If you listened to someone like me two years ago you'd have a lot less money now. And that could be true two years from now! The only thing you learn in this industry is that you're always wrong. And...hey...maybe your FA can time when this momentum trade ends perfectly. That's possible? The bad: How....could anyone look their client in the eyes and justify this is the best risk-adjusted allocation for your long-term best interests? You're super concentrated and every part of the allocation is like 100% correlated to the other. Owning QTEC and MTUM and NVIDIA or Meta together does essentially nothing for you. They're all going to go up at the same time....and they're all going to go down at the same time. There is essentially zero benefit to owning all three and nothing else. No offense to my man. But if he was a 20 stock superstar tech stock picker...he wouldn't be an FA. The risks of being so volatile, downside weighted, concentrated AND undiversified are tremendous. The ONLY way you can win is if the specific market environment of the past short-term continues OR your man can time the market perfectly. Both are possible....but I wouldn't bet on it. Trying not to bash your guy...it's a tough job....but I can't comprehend a fiduciary putting you in that allocation. It's brutal.

BrockForsey

MTUM and QTEC are the only ETFs, I believe. The rest (maybe 20?) are individual stocks with several of the usual tech suspects.

Tiiinygecko

Hmmm...was looking at the ETF ISPY, which has an on-going call strategy on the heavyweights of SPY, pays a heavy dividend. Tradingview and Market Watch put that dividend at 10.2% annually. Tradingview and Yahoo Financials put the total return at 13.53% since December...not that great compared to SPY. The fund was created in December 2023. I think I'll put a very small amount into it, around 1% of my portfolio...to keep BKLN company. The vast remainder of my portfolio, around 95%, I will leave in SPY, QQQ, MTUM, NVDA, SMCI, AVGO, MU. GE, a few others...you know: the guys with really \*big\* returns. I'm watching for a top to the market as well...we might be due for a short term correction. Long term I think we're still okay though. Disclaimer: I'm too much of a regard to post the above as actual reasearch. Lol. 🙈🙈

Tiiinygecko

Mostly just $360,000 in shares that mooned today. I occasionally buy options, but tend to lose more than I gain on them. I have a lot in SPY, QQQ, MTUM, and other ETFs...but I also have a lot of individual meme stocks such as NVDA, SMCI, MU, AVGO that did really well today.

rvdsn

This is almost like momentum. MTUM rebalances every 6 months.

Safe-Informal

MTUM has very similar chart as VTI. MTUM will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of the  MSCI USA Index.

Pooooooooooooooooh

Cons:VGT is heavily concentrated and actually misses a number of companies you'd probably consider to be tech stocks. Pros: VGT is heavily concentrated (if you want to swing for the fences), and does have many of the usual suspects.  My opinion, based on my understanding other's opinions, is that sector bets can turn out great but often don't unless you are prescient. The closest I'd personally get is momentum (eg, MTUM) which can be fairly concentrated in a sector when it's been doing great but shifts with the wind. If you have a lot of gains in a sector fund outside of an IRA, it may be very painful to sell due to capital gains. You get locked in even if you think its headed off a cliff. That's one reason why many experienced investors give up with special recipes and go with total market funds.

no_simpsons

the 100k in savings and the 50k to year CD should have gone into corporate bonds. The 50k in treasuries should have gone into QQQ or MTUM.

MotoTrojan

Makes sense. At end of the day it’s all noise as VOO/VV/VTI are incredibly correlated, but personally I’m put off by the poorly constructed inclusion rules.  VV would be better. Or if you are an Avantis fan, AVUS is an option. Could also really lean into factors and use large cap momentum (MTUM). 

Staticks

Momentum factor. MTUM is the plain vanilla choice, but I recommend JP Morgan's JMOM.

MotoTrojan

With the recent price reduction to 29bp for their US funds, and monthly rebalancing (a rarity for momo funds, only Vanguard's VFMO which can rebalance daily beats it) makes QMOM an incredible value for concentrated momo. Can hold \~1/2 as much as you'd hold in MTUM to get same momo exposure, leaving room for other funds/strats.

no_simpsons

MTUM has been a good buy and hold etf and less (offensive adjective) than that.

hoodrichkinda

Anyone know why MTUM dropped ah is that a visual bug?

Staticks

I would keep some of it in crypto, and put the rest in a momentum index ETF (I recommend JMOM, but there are other options such as SPMO or MTUM).

Careful-Site3952

HEY YALL, i feel very strong on MTUM, by that i mean i am losing my ass on the put, broncos country, lets ride :(

life_bytes

Puts on MTUM will print Thursday morning

mukavastinumb

Probably MTUM

Careful-Site3952

put on MTUM

assingfortrouble

This is only true to the extent that the Momentum factor explains out-performance. It's true that that momentum factor does explain some stock performance, but it's also totally investable. There's no reason that an individual investor couldn't upweight high-momentum stocks just like MTUM does.

Teckel22

kinda schocked to find out NVDA is only 4.5% of QQQ While it is 5.5% of QUAL and MTUM Oh and 3.7% in SPY So not even a 1% difference between SPY and QQQ

rickle3386

I would fund 401k at least up to company match level, more if you like the funds, fully fund a roth IRA and do a little brokerage if you can. S&P 500 is great and you can get some sector or theme oriented ETFs if you want to get a little more (QQQ for nasdaq, MTUM for momentum factor, MOAT for high performing value, and of course specific industry weights.) Do this early and you'll be off to a great start. Son has done this for 2.5 yrs and it's fun to hear about his account values while he still goes out and enjoys life. That last part is important. Make sure you have enough to live and enjoy life. That's very important.

Teckel22

MTUM XLK SMH. Am I diversified?

NoBoB

So, looking at your other posts, your $15 dividend on VB resulted in a tiny fractional share? If so the loss on that tiny sliver is disallowed until you sell that fraction. I suspect this will just round off to zero anyway. Likely the same with MTUM. On another note, I'm unclear on how you can lose $2000 on 15 shares; that's over $133 per share. VB hasn't dropped that far since even its all-time high. Losing $1000 on 22 shares of MTUM is at least mathematically possible, but your timing would have to have been incredibly bad.

emcdeezy22

I sold all 15 of my VB shares for about a $2000 loss on 1/3. In mid December, I received a $15 dividend. How much of that capital loss is negated? I sold 22 of my 30 MTUM shares on 1/3 for about a $1000 loss after receiving an $11 dividend in mid December. How much of that capital loss is negated?

BobbyGlaze

Sounds like you might prefer a momentum strategy. That tends to work reasonably though the turnover is high. ex QMOM, MTUM, VFMO.

this_guy_fks

a. most investment mandates are to be in the index, and not outperform the index. b. liquidity (SPY and the ES index futures) are the most liquid equity indicies in the world. MOAT and the smart beta fama factor etfs (MTUM, QUAL, etc) are not nearly as liquid.

Staticks

I recommend QQQ, and/or a momentum-factor ETF like JMOM or MTUM instead.

Teckel22

me, crying, as I sold XLK and SMH but kept MTUM thinking I could beat the market, fucking idiot

VisualMod

The S&P 500 has a long history of outperforming the NASDAQ and MSCI Momentum Indexes, so I believe that it will continue to do so in the future. My machine learning algorithms have generated predictions for the SPY, QQQ, and MTUM ETFs that indicate they will all experience significant growth in the coming years.

whatsaburneraccount

MTUM is one but i don't think it rebalances everyday

DiversifiedReturn

Over the next 20 - value and momentum investing typically. Some ETFs include MTUM, VFMO, QMOM for momentum and AVUV, DFSV, QVAL for value. Could simply allocate 10% to value, 10% to momentum, and 80% to a market fund like VT and be expected to outperform Next year or so - safer cash-like investments, probably

DiversifiedReturn

VFMO was included in the comparison. This limits the results to a start date in March of 2018. The point was to see how the three funds compare in their ability to track the academic Momentum factor after-costs. Looking at the funds aside from the factor returns (which QMOM was shown to track more accurately than the others after all costs), there was indeed outperformance from MTUM prior to 2018 when the size effect (MTUM is limited to large caps only, unlike QMOM) gave it a nice headstart that currently persists in the live returns, albeit only slightly. If you look at live returns including VFMO in the comparison, MTUM drops off completely from both a risk-adjusted* and realized returns perspective. This is explained by its limitation to large cap only and the semiannual rebalance methodology rather than QMOM or VFMO's faster quarterly rebalancing. As a result, MTUM took on the worst drawdowns and worst years even when we compare QMOM and MTUM over the full 2016-2022 period. As a last step, let's look at a factor regression. When using a factor regression on the four factor model we find QMOM has a significant 0.68 loading to the Momentum factor (MTUM has a significant 0.37) and a significant 0.76 loading to the Size factor (MTUM has an insignificant -0.02 loading). This aligns with what I said earlier regarding the size effect explaining differences in returns. At the same time, QMOM exhibits positive excess rolling returns over the four-factor model clone of it. However, MTUM has negative excess rolling returns relative to its four-factor model clone. Again, MTUM is not living up to expectations when measured by its ability to track the Fama French factor returns. *It doesn't make sense to compare risk-adjusted returns when looking at an individual fund on its own rather than a holistic strategy fit for your personal situation IMO. That's not what risk-adjusted return measurements are intended for.

DiversifiedReturn

Fama French research data is before trading costs. Live fund data is after real live trading costs and expense ratios: Annualized returns (%): 3/2018 to 9/2022 (latest momentum data on Ken French’s website). 5.5 = Fama-French (FF) Large Cap Momentum 5.2 = iShares MSCI US Momentum (MTUM) 8.8 = 50% FF Large Cap Momentum: 50% FF Small Cap Momentum 8.9 = Alpha Architect US Quantitative Momentum ETF (QMOM) 8.2 = Vanguard US Momentum Factor ETF (VFMO)

go4thegreen

Turnover %…. Pick a fund like MTUM and you’ll be passively swinging your sector allocation around without realizing it.

oldmapledude

well SCHD is for ppl 10-15 yrs from retirement. Under 40: VGT+MTUM+VTI Under 50: MTUM/VOO Over 50: SCHD/VOO Over 60: JEPI/SCHD/CD ladders Screw bonds Yes those companies you listed did amazing but it'd be amazing if someone had that list 5 yrs ago.

Valhall_Awaits_Me

I’ve seen SCHD backtested post-dot com, through GFC and assuming $1B market cap and DRIPing dividends it held up second best. MTUM first. Versus Qs, SPY, VTI, etc, all the common ones. These are ETFs, comparing it to FB, which was barely even a thing let alone public is a poor argument. One stock is obviously going to be extremely more volatile. That beats the market on a legit timeframe. If you can’t beat that, you should do that. Buy two shares of SCHD and one of MTUM and watch em and beat ‘em.

DiversifiedReturn

How an investor implements trend is highly personal to their beliefs. I view it as an additional form of diversification, superior to Emerging Markets diversification due to a higher degree of certainty and lower degrees of risk offered(better investor protections in developed markets). On Momentum fees let's look at the data. FamaFrench data is before trading costs while live fund data accounted for trading costs and expense ratios: Annualized returns (%): 3/2018 to 9/2022 (the latest momentum data on Ken French’s website). 5.5 = Fama-French (FF) Large Cap Momentum 5.2 = iShares MSCI US Momentum (MTUM) 8.8 = 50% FF Large Cap Momentum: 50% FF Small Cap Momentum 8.9 = Alpha Architect US Quantitative Momentum ETF (QMOM) 8.2 = Vanguard US Momentum Factor ETF (VFMO) Then for AQR, a factor investing hedge fund... Annualized return (%): 3/2018 to 8/2022 (the latest momentum index data on the AQR website) 11.1 = 50% FF Large Cap Momentum: 50% FF Small Cap Momentum 11.07 = Alpha Architect US Quantitative Momentum ETF (QMOM) 13.1 = 100% FF Small Cap Momentum 11.0 = AQR US Small Cap Momentum Index

dogsrain

It's a bit in the weeds of his posts. [Here](https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=272007&amp;start=2850) is the consideration for MTUM in taxable. [Here](https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5284786#p5284786) is where he ended up going with growth/edv. I'm not doing it purely b/c of him, it's just supportive evidence. VFMO seems better than MTUM to me since it should capture mid and small premiums (it's 1/3 small and 1/3 mid). True that QMOM has outperformed

DiversifiedReturn

I don't recall that at all. I think you should check your sources on the Hedgefundie story... Especially since a couple people have tried impersonating him for clicks in the past. Also wouldn't do something just because someone else did it. MTUM's performance is largely due to its size constraint. During a period of large cap outperformance it did wonderfully. When large caps aren't favored, not so. A [quick comparison ](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&amp;timePeriod=4&amp;startYear=1985&amp;firstMonth=1&amp;endYear=2022&amp;lastMonth=12&amp;calendarAligned=true&amp;includeYTD=false&amp;initialAmount=10000&amp;annualOperation=0&amp;annualAdjustment=0&amp;inflationAdjusted=true&amp;annualPercentage=0.0&amp;frequency=4&amp;rebalanceType=1&amp;absoluteDeviation=5.0&amp;relativeDeviation=25.0&amp;leverageType=0&amp;leverageRatio=0.0&amp;debtAmount=0&amp;debtInterest=0.0&amp;maintenanceMargin=25.0&amp;leveragedBenchmark=false&amp;reinvestDividends=true&amp;showYield=false&amp;showFactors=false&amp;factorModel=3&amp;portfolioNames=false&amp;portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&amp;portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&amp;portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&amp;symbol1=QMOM&amp;allocation1_1=100&amp;symbol2=MTUM&amp;allocation2_2=100&amp;symbol3=VFMO&amp;allocation3_3=100) has QMOM beating out the rest by a wide margin. Both YTD and over the full timeframe available.

lenolchoice

MTUM?

rao-blackwell-ized

Probably not, but this makes me think of Momentum, e.g. MTUM, QMOM, etc.

kiwimancy

It sells the stock after it has risen. It is unknown whether it will rise more. The point is to own stocks that are small, not stocks that were small at one point. It sounds like you are interested in a momentum strategy that buys stocks that have recently been rising in hopes that they will continue rising. VFMO, MTUM, IMTM, XMMO are funds that do that.

AustinLurkerDude

It was weird, I think like about a year ago I was looking at 4 different ETFs like VOO, MTUM, VTI, VGT and they sound really diverse but they had the same top 10 holdings like APPLE, VISA, MICROSOFT, GOOGLE, etc. ! &#x200B; So really you're not getting the diversification expected and all the big funds were riding off 20-30 companies even though you think you're getting the coverage of 500+ companies.

Habanero_Enema

In 8/2017 I bought SCHX and MTUM. Longest individual stock I have held is QCOM since 9/2019.

xbob57

MTUM will rebalance growth stocks to value & energy stocks next week. MTUM up 1.38% pre-market as investors buy in. Could also have some positive impact to value & energy stocks.

spac-master

Looks like black rock Tech portfolio that going for sell off next week MTUM,

6JDanish

OpEx tomorrow, and dealer gamma is negative. So fasten your seatbelts. MTUM rebalancing next week ,and TSLA is the #2 holding. Got puts?

HollowEarth1776

MTUM's top 25 holdings list Tesla Inc. TSLA 5.53% Microsoft Corp. MSFT 5.09% NVIDIA Corp. NVDA 4.85% Eli Lilly & Co. LLY 3.76% JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM 3.69% Costco Wholesale Corp. COST 3.46% Bank of America Corp. BAC 3.43% Accenture PLC Cl A ACN 2.75% Alphabet Inc. Cl A GOOGL 2.72% Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. TMO 2.70% Alphabet Inc. Cl C GOOG 2.50% Adobe Inc. ADBE 2.42% Intuit Inc. INTU 2.34% Wells Fargo & Co. WFC 2.30% ConocoPhillips COP 2.14% Oracle Corp. ORCL 2.13% Blackstone Inc. BX 1.79% Morgan Stanley MS 1.54% Moderna Inc. MRNA 1.53% Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS 1.38% Charles Schwab Corp. SCHW 1.30% Target Corp. TGT 1.15% Applied Materials Inc. AMAT 1.15% Fortinet Inc. FTNT 1.07% BlackRock Inc. BLK 1.06%

beavervsotter

My initial plan: panic, then VTI/VXUS, XLF, DGRO, and low beta S&P etf, FTEC, MTUM, whoever is closest to the 52 wk low get the paycheck that week. Whaddya think?

this_guy_fks

qmom tracks some "proprietary" momentum index, where MTUM is your vanilla fama/french momentum implementation. when in doubt, trust the public rulebook over the prop one. also MTUM has outperformed.

mightyduck19

yeah this all makes sense. I'm not so much worried about the vol as I would be a higher correlation to the market. I'm not just looking for some ultra high beta magnified expression of SPX ....I would like to find something that trades relatively independently. I feel like this could be a nice tilt in combo with a few other slightly obscure funds. I also need to do some research on the difference between this and MTUM.