MTUM
iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
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Mentions
MTUM, but it underperforms VOO
Neither SPMO nor MTUM hold TSLA
mtum is ok, but SPMO beats it in almost every time metric. Last 5 yrs SPMO: +150%, MTUM: +73%. Not even close
might want to switch to us based momentum (MTUM) instead
Only two of these have linked ETFs with any history. They are $MTUM and $ACWV, so... I am interested in studying AQLT, though, so thanks for the brainstorm.
My portfolio is currently split with about 30% in VT, 10% in IGF, 10% in IEMG, 3% in GUNR, 15% in MTUM, 5% in VNQ, 10% in GLD, 15% in QQQ, 1% in EWX, and 1% in ARKW. I’d recommend putting this in ChatGPT just ask it to analyse it when it performs when it struggles through different economic situations and pros and cons of this then make a opinion
I wonder how old you are? I am 57 years old, but don’t know any bonds. A third of my portfolio is managed by me, presumably paying attention to trends that are important so I’m in gross stocks like SCHG and momentum like MTUM/SPMO. I also swing trade in my IRA. The rest of my portfolio is managed by a smart manager who keeps me in ETFs like SPYG, VOO, XLK and XLC.
Compare MTUM to a combo of SPMO and XMMO though.
I do similar but with MTUM rather than SPMO, but both should work similarly - I just wanted broader momentum exposure than just S&P stocks.
IDMO is the international-developed momentum fund like US based ones (MTUM being the best there), but costs more with more trading. It’s great when non-US stocks are in a bull market as the momentum is actually backwards looking, but when they fall they will fall faster too. So if using it, maybe as an adjunct and know if it’s the early vs late phase of that particular bull market. Maybe rebalance the momentum etf(s) more often as not to get caught?
MTUM after hours disaster lmao
Dunno, but great day to DCA into VGT, MTUM and a little bit into VTI. Definitely plan to do some buying tonight. I'm fortunate enough to be able to live off dividends and savings if I did lose my job but nukes are a bigger fear with this POTUS.
AIQ, ARKK, SHLD, MTUM, to name a few
Disagree, there's sector targeted ETFs you can use, but buying individual stocks is too risky IMHO unless its less than 10% of your portfolio. You could get VXUS, VTI, QQQ, VGT, VTWO etc rather than just VOO if you think certain sectors will beat VOO, or just go trend investing and get MTUM.
I think your describing momentum investing which has a lot of research supporting it. Check out funds like SPMO XMMO. MTUM is another but seems to underperform it’s peers. They all tend to outperform the SP500 especially in bull markets.
Leaps for SPY, QQQ, or MTUM.
Just tell us what to buy. I say MTUM will do pretty well.
Individual stocks: NVDA, NFLX, AMZN, META, JPM, MS, COST, WMT, BRK ETFs: MTUM, QQQ
MTUM, QQQ, SPY all will print.
I think you would be happy with the returns of VUG a Vanguard ETF and /or MTUM
But a momentum ETF, that’s the closest I can think of MTUM
This is called a momentum strategy and famously outperforms in a bull market but underperforms in a bear market. MTUM is up 23% to SPY's 16% this year but looking at the 5-year performance (so factoring in Covid) It's up 54% to SPY's 83%. If you think 2022 caused stress as buy-and-hold just know you will probably get slaughtered by a recession, but theoretically your excess gains should make it roughly break even over a decade or so.
MTUM is filled with growth stocks, which could mean big potential returns. Have you looked into how it fits with your investment strategy and risk tolerance?
MTUM is full of growth stocks. Could be a good option.
I mean, the simple answer is that past results are not a guarantee of future returns. E.g.: >Why isn’t there an investment tool that captures best stocks in real time? Imagine a small cap goes up 400% a day and there was something like an ETF but that catches the growth in real time? Unless you have a time machine, you cannot invest in a company based on it growing X% until *after* it has grown X%. And while (to use your example), the fund could (say) buy when the company has grown 200% (these are imaginary/silly numbers, but whatever) and capture the remaining growth, how would you know in advance that there's further growth coming? You're basically just describing a momentum-type fund. E.g., $MTUM tracks the MSCI Momentum index, which chases companies with recent (6/12 month) high price momentum. [Here's a summary of that index](https://www.msci.com/eqb/methodology/meth_docs/MSCI_Momentum_Indexes_Methodology_Aug2021.pdf). >Isn’t an All country etf lame in the way that S&P 500 has absolutely soared for years now yet something like MSCI ACWI IMI UCITS still only has 60% in the US markets. Why couldn’t it reallocate quicker to reflect and capture the big winners? I can't speak to that particular fund but, in general, the goal of an index fund is not to chase maximal short/mid term returns (or really chase *any* term of returns). The goal is to track an index.
woooowwwwww. One of THOSE FAs. The positives: You made out like a bandit these past few years. Those gains are all yours! If you listened to someone like me two years ago you'd have a lot less money now. And that could be true two years from now! The only thing you learn in this industry is that you're always wrong. And...hey...maybe your FA can time when this momentum trade ends perfectly. That's possible? The bad: How....could anyone look their client in the eyes and justify this is the best risk-adjusted allocation for your long-term best interests? You're super concentrated and every part of the allocation is like 100% correlated to the other. Owning QTEC and MTUM and NVIDIA or Meta together does essentially nothing for you. They're all going to go up at the same time....and they're all going to go down at the same time. There is essentially zero benefit to owning all three and nothing else. No offense to my man. But if he was a 20 stock superstar tech stock picker...he wouldn't be an FA. The risks of being so volatile, downside weighted, concentrated AND undiversified are tremendous. The ONLY way you can win is if the specific market environment of the past short-term continues OR your man can time the market perfectly. Both are possible....but I wouldn't bet on it. Trying not to bash your guy...it's a tough job....but I can't comprehend a fiduciary putting you in that allocation. It's brutal.
MTUM and QTEC are the only ETFs, I believe. The rest (maybe 20?) are individual stocks with several of the usual tech suspects.
Hmmm...was looking at the ETF ISPY, which has an on-going call strategy on the heavyweights of SPY, pays a heavy dividend. Tradingview and Market Watch put that dividend at 10.2% annually. Tradingview and Yahoo Financials put the total return at 13.53% since December...not that great compared to SPY. The fund was created in December 2023. I think I'll put a very small amount into it, around 1% of my portfolio...to keep BKLN company. The vast remainder of my portfolio, around 95%, I will leave in SPY, QQQ, MTUM, NVDA, SMCI, AVGO, MU. GE, a few others...you know: the guys with really \*big\* returns. I'm watching for a top to the market as well...we might be due for a short term correction. Long term I think we're still okay though. Disclaimer: I'm too much of a regard to post the above as actual reasearch. Lol. 🙈🙈
Mostly just $360,000 in shares that mooned today. I occasionally buy options, but tend to lose more than I gain on them. I have a lot in SPY, QQQ, MTUM, and other ETFs...but I also have a lot of individual meme stocks such as NVDA, SMCI, MU, AVGO that did really well today.
This is almost like momentum. MTUM rebalances every 6 months.
MTUM has very similar chart as VTI. MTUM will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of the MSCI USA Index.
Cons:VGT is heavily concentrated and actually misses a number of companies you'd probably consider to be tech stocks. Pros: VGT is heavily concentrated (if you want to swing for the fences), and does have many of the usual suspects. My opinion, based on my understanding other's opinions, is that sector bets can turn out great but often don't unless you are prescient. The closest I'd personally get is momentum (eg, MTUM) which can be fairly concentrated in a sector when it's been doing great but shifts with the wind. If you have a lot of gains in a sector fund outside of an IRA, it may be very painful to sell due to capital gains. You get locked in even if you think its headed off a cliff. That's one reason why many experienced investors give up with special recipes and go with total market funds.
the 100k in savings and the 50k to year CD should have gone into corporate bonds. The 50k in treasuries should have gone into QQQ or MTUM.
Makes sense. At end of the day it’s all noise as VOO/VV/VTI are incredibly correlated, but personally I’m put off by the poorly constructed inclusion rules. VV would be better. Or if you are an Avantis fan, AVUS is an option. Could also really lean into factors and use large cap momentum (MTUM).
Momentum factor. MTUM is the plain vanilla choice, but I recommend JP Morgan's JMOM.
With the recent price reduction to 29bp for their US funds, and monthly rebalancing (a rarity for momo funds, only Vanguard's VFMO which can rebalance daily beats it) makes QMOM an incredible value for concentrated momo. Can hold \~1/2 as much as you'd hold in MTUM to get same momo exposure, leaving room for other funds/strats.
MTUM has been a good buy and hold etf and less (offensive adjective) than that.
Anyone know why MTUM dropped ah is that a visual bug?
I would keep some of it in crypto, and put the rest in a momentum index ETF (I recommend JMOM, but there are other options such as SPMO or MTUM).
HEY YALL, i feel very strong on MTUM, by that i mean i am losing my ass on the put, broncos country, lets ride :(
Puts on MTUM will print Thursday morning
This is only true to the extent that the Momentum factor explains out-performance. It's true that that momentum factor does explain some stock performance, but it's also totally investable. There's no reason that an individual investor couldn't upweight high-momentum stocks just like MTUM does.
kinda schocked to find out NVDA is only 4.5% of QQQ While it is 5.5% of QUAL and MTUM Oh and 3.7% in SPY So not even a 1% difference between SPY and QQQ
I would fund 401k at least up to company match level, more if you like the funds, fully fund a roth IRA and do a little brokerage if you can. S&P 500 is great and you can get some sector or theme oriented ETFs if you want to get a little more (QQQ for nasdaq, MTUM for momentum factor, MOAT for high performing value, and of course specific industry weights.) Do this early and you'll be off to a great start. Son has done this for 2.5 yrs and it's fun to hear about his account values while he still goes out and enjoys life. That last part is important. Make sure you have enough to live and enjoy life. That's very important.
MTUM XLK SMH. Am I diversified?
So, looking at your other posts, your $15 dividend on VB resulted in a tiny fractional share? If so the loss on that tiny sliver is disallowed until you sell that fraction. I suspect this will just round off to zero anyway. Likely the same with MTUM. On another note, I'm unclear on how you can lose $2000 on 15 shares; that's over $133 per share. VB hasn't dropped that far since even its all-time high. Losing $1000 on 22 shares of MTUM is at least mathematically possible, but your timing would have to have been incredibly bad.
I sold all 15 of my VB shares for about a $2000 loss on 1/3. In mid December, I received a $15 dividend. How much of that capital loss is negated? I sold 22 of my 30 MTUM shares on 1/3 for about a $1000 loss after receiving an $11 dividend in mid December. How much of that capital loss is negated?
Sounds like you might prefer a momentum strategy. That tends to work reasonably though the turnover is high. ex QMOM, MTUM, VFMO.
a. most investment mandates are to be in the index, and not outperform the index. b. liquidity (SPY and the ES index futures) are the most liquid equity indicies in the world. MOAT and the smart beta fama factor etfs (MTUM, QUAL, etc) are not nearly as liquid.
me, crying, as I sold XLK and SMH but kept MTUM thinking I could beat the market, fucking idiot
The S&P 500 has a long history of outperforming the NASDAQ and MSCI Momentum Indexes, so I believe that it will continue to do so in the future. My machine learning algorithms have generated predictions for the SPY, QQQ, and MTUM ETFs that indicate they will all experience significant growth in the coming years.
MTUM is one but i don't think it rebalances everyday
Over the next 20 - value and momentum investing typically. Some ETFs include MTUM, VFMO, QMOM for momentum and AVUV, DFSV, QVAL for value. Could simply allocate 10% to value, 10% to momentum, and 80% to a market fund like VT and be expected to outperform Next year or so - safer cash-like investments, probably
VFMO was included in the comparison. This limits the results to a start date in March of 2018. The point was to see how the three funds compare in their ability to track the academic Momentum factor after-costs. Looking at the funds aside from the factor returns (which QMOM was shown to track more accurately than the others after all costs), there was indeed outperformance from MTUM prior to 2018 when the size effect (MTUM is limited to large caps only, unlike QMOM) gave it a nice headstart that currently persists in the live returns, albeit only slightly. If you look at live returns including VFMO in the comparison, MTUM drops off completely from both a risk-adjusted* and realized returns perspective. This is explained by its limitation to large cap only and the semiannual rebalance methodology rather than QMOM or VFMO's faster quarterly rebalancing. As a result, MTUM took on the worst drawdowns and worst years even when we compare QMOM and MTUM over the full 2016-2022 period. As a last step, let's look at a factor regression. When using a factor regression on the four factor model we find QMOM has a significant 0.68 loading to the Momentum factor (MTUM has a significant 0.37) and a significant 0.76 loading to the Size factor (MTUM has an insignificant -0.02 loading). This aligns with what I said earlier regarding the size effect explaining differences in returns. At the same time, QMOM exhibits positive excess rolling returns over the four-factor model clone of it. However, MTUM has negative excess rolling returns relative to its four-factor model clone. Again, MTUM is not living up to expectations when measured by its ability to track the Fama French factor returns. *It doesn't make sense to compare risk-adjusted returns when looking at an individual fund on its own rather than a holistic strategy fit for your personal situation IMO. That's not what risk-adjusted return measurements are intended for.
Fama French research data is before trading costs. Live fund data is after real live trading costs and expense ratios: Annualized returns (%): 3/2018 to 9/2022 (latest momentum data on Ken French’s website). 5.5 = Fama-French (FF) Large Cap Momentum 5.2 = iShares MSCI US Momentum (MTUM) 8.8 = 50% FF Large Cap Momentum: 50% FF Small Cap Momentum 8.9 = Alpha Architect US Quantitative Momentum ETF (QMOM) 8.2 = Vanguard US Momentum Factor ETF (VFMO)
Turnover %…. Pick a fund like MTUM and you’ll be passively swinging your sector allocation around without realizing it.
well SCHD is for ppl 10-15 yrs from retirement. Under 40: VGT+MTUM+VTI Under 50: MTUM/VOO Over 50: SCHD/VOO Over 60: JEPI/SCHD/CD ladders Screw bonds Yes those companies you listed did amazing but it'd be amazing if someone had that list 5 yrs ago.
I’ve seen SCHD backtested post-dot com, through GFC and assuming $1B market cap and DRIPing dividends it held up second best. MTUM first. Versus Qs, SPY, VTI, etc, all the common ones. These are ETFs, comparing it to FB, which was barely even a thing let alone public is a poor argument. One stock is obviously going to be extremely more volatile. That beats the market on a legit timeframe. If you can’t beat that, you should do that. Buy two shares of SCHD and one of MTUM and watch em and beat ‘em.
How an investor implements trend is highly personal to their beliefs. I view it as an additional form of diversification, superior to Emerging Markets diversification due to a higher degree of certainty and lower degrees of risk offered(better investor protections in developed markets). On Momentum fees let's look at the data. FamaFrench data is before trading costs while live fund data accounted for trading costs and expense ratios: Annualized returns (%): 3/2018 to 9/2022 (the latest momentum data on Ken French’s website). 5.5 = Fama-French (FF) Large Cap Momentum 5.2 = iShares MSCI US Momentum (MTUM) 8.8 = 50% FF Large Cap Momentum: 50% FF Small Cap Momentum 8.9 = Alpha Architect US Quantitative Momentum ETF (QMOM) 8.2 = Vanguard US Momentum Factor ETF (VFMO) Then for AQR, a factor investing hedge fund... Annualized return (%): 3/2018 to 8/2022 (the latest momentum index data on the AQR website) 11.1 = 50% FF Large Cap Momentum: 50% FF Small Cap Momentum 11.07 = Alpha Architect US Quantitative Momentum ETF (QMOM) 13.1 = 100% FF Small Cap Momentum 11.0 = AQR US Small Cap Momentum Index
It's a bit in the weeds of his posts. [Here](https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=272007&start=2850) is the consideration for MTUM in taxable. [Here](https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5284786#p5284786) is where he ended up going with growth/edv. I'm not doing it purely b/c of him, it's just supportive evidence. VFMO seems better than MTUM to me since it should capture mid and small premiums (it's 1/3 small and 1/3 mid). True that QMOM has outperformed
I don't recall that at all. I think you should check your sources on the Hedgefundie story... Especially since a couple people have tried impersonating him for clicks in the past. Also wouldn't do something just because someone else did it. MTUM's performance is largely due to its size constraint. During a period of large cap outperformance it did wonderfully. When large caps aren't favored, not so. A [quick comparison ](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2022&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=QMOM&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=MTUM&allocation2_2=100&symbol3=VFMO&allocation3_3=100) has QMOM beating out the rest by a wide margin. Both YTD and over the full timeframe available.
Probably not, but this makes me think of Momentum, e.g. MTUM, QMOM, etc.
It sells the stock after it has risen. It is unknown whether it will rise more. The point is to own stocks that are small, not stocks that were small at one point. It sounds like you are interested in a momentum strategy that buys stocks that have recently been rising in hopes that they will continue rising. VFMO, MTUM, IMTM, XMMO are funds that do that.
It was weird, I think like about a year ago I was looking at 4 different ETFs like VOO, MTUM, VTI, VGT and they sound really diverse but they had the same top 10 holdings like APPLE, VISA, MICROSOFT, GOOGLE, etc. ! ​ So really you're not getting the diversification expected and all the big funds were riding off 20-30 companies even though you think you're getting the coverage of 500+ companies.
In 8/2017 I bought SCHX and MTUM. Longest individual stock I have held is QCOM since 9/2019.
MTUM will rebalance growth stocks to value & energy stocks next week. MTUM up 1.38% pre-market as investors buy in. Could also have some positive impact to value & energy stocks.
Looks like black rock Tech portfolio that going for sell off next week MTUM,
OpEx tomorrow, and dealer gamma is negative. So fasten your seatbelts. MTUM rebalancing next week ,and TSLA is the #2 holding. Got puts?
MTUM's top 25 holdings list Tesla Inc. TSLA 5.53% Microsoft Corp. MSFT 5.09% NVIDIA Corp. NVDA 4.85% Eli Lilly & Co. LLY 3.76% JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM 3.69% Costco Wholesale Corp. COST 3.46% Bank of America Corp. BAC 3.43% Accenture PLC Cl A ACN 2.75% Alphabet Inc. Cl A GOOGL 2.72% Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. TMO 2.70% Alphabet Inc. Cl C GOOG 2.50% Adobe Inc. ADBE 2.42% Intuit Inc. INTU 2.34% Wells Fargo & Co. WFC 2.30% ConocoPhillips COP 2.14% Oracle Corp. ORCL 2.13% Blackstone Inc. BX 1.79% Morgan Stanley MS 1.54% Moderna Inc. MRNA 1.53% Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS 1.38% Charles Schwab Corp. SCHW 1.30% Target Corp. TGT 1.15% Applied Materials Inc. AMAT 1.15% Fortinet Inc. FTNT 1.07% BlackRock Inc. BLK 1.06%
My initial plan: panic, then VTI/VXUS, XLF, DGRO, and low beta S&P etf, FTEC, MTUM, whoever is closest to the 52 wk low get the paycheck that week. Whaddya think?
qmom tracks some "proprietary" momentum index, where MTUM is your vanilla fama/french momentum implementation. when in doubt, trust the public rulebook over the prop one. also MTUM has outperformed.
yeah this all makes sense. I'm not so much worried about the vol as I would be a higher correlation to the market. I'm not just looking for some ultra high beta magnified expression of SPX ....I would like to find something that trades relatively independently. I feel like this could be a nice tilt in combo with a few other slightly obscure funds. I also need to do some research on the difference between this and MTUM.
yeah makes sense regarding understanding the existing implicit factor exposure in the rest of the portfolio. Why do you say that MTUM is a better implementation? Just expresses the momentum factor more efficiently? or is there something mechanical about the fund you like more? ie lower expense ratio?
As you said, it selects for trailing one-year momentum (although it excludes the last month, which is conventional). It also has a quality screen and holds only 50 stocks like QVAL/IVAL. Given that it's a long-only portfolio -- the poors aren't allowed access to long/short portfolios -- its returns will be positively correlated with the market's returns. However, it does offer a diversified source of returns and is *less* correlated with the market than a huge momentum fund like MTUM.
well for starters MTUM is a better implementation of momentum. but to your question once you design a factor portfolio, what you need to understand is how the rest of your portfolio decomposes into the factors, then decide what your factor allocation is, then use MTUM/QMOM to increase your exposure to the momentum factor.
MTUM NAV as of Feb 25, 2022 $160.89 52 WK: 150.01 - 193.75 1 Day NAV Change as of Feb 25, 2022 3.18 (2.01%) NAV Total Return as of Feb 24, 2022 YTD: -13.29% Expense Ratio: 0.15%
SCHD or/and if you can stand momentum downswings MTUM. Beats em all predicated on reinvesting any dividends.
Saw a good YouTube video (can’t find the source) where a dude researched back about 20 years. Needed to be over 1B in AUM and noted how it did during 2008 bear market. SPY is good and definitely the benchmark but MTUM was first and SCHD second (then maybe SPY). Difference was a couple hundred K over the 20 years.
Most strategies get arbitraged, the strategies that don’t become factors, that’s what the difference between the two is. Momentum has been known about and used widely by finds, hedge funds and all sorts for decades, and has been backtested globally 200+ years, yet still works well. Take a look at MSCI’s momentum papers, it has outperformed massively over 5, 10, 20 and 40+ years, even iShares having a huge fund tracking the index for a decade, MTUM.
My taxable account at IBKR is: 30% BTAL 40% USMV 30% MTUM. BTAL has worked pretty well as a hedge this last week. BTAL didn't work earlier this year because high-beta stocks just went ballistic. So it would be best as a hedge to MTUM, the high beta fund. But back testing shows a mix of USMV gets a much lower drawdown at a higher sortino ratio. If the market goes down it should work as a hedge, kind of like long term bonds... but I suspect long term bonds are a guaranteed money loser whereas BTAL isn't a guaranteed money looser. If the market kinda trades sideways it should do OK, if we go to the moon then it will lose some money. <shrug> its all theoretical
Looks like the Momentum factor MTUM is gonna get fucked again and get filled with Energy stocks just as Energy stocks are gonna hit a correction (lock downs in Europe)
It’s not hard to beat SPY and diversify. SPHB. Interesting strategy where high beta equates to alpha, beaten spy 5 years, 3 years, and ytd. MTUM, another etf that beats spy and rides the big mo. If you want to look at individual holdings then I like digital ocean, it’s done great things for me $DOCN.
Yes, index funds are inherently diversified. Fyi, I prefer $MTUM over an ETF that tracks the S&P (better performance historically).
Ironically, qqq/bond is lower beta than the S&P. Ill have to look into MTUM
High beta always loves a bull market. I’m personally a big fan of MTUM so I’ll use the MSCI USA Momentum and MSCI USA Info Tech indexes to draw a parallel. The ten year annual average return for them both is 23% and 19%, a pretty big gap, but since 1994 (as that’s stated on the performance PDF for both and includes the Dotcom bubble) it’s 14% each, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.57 vs 0.75, due to the high volatility.
If you're just looking to "park your cash," then you'd do best to diversify, and perhaps buy an ETF. $MTUM would be my recommendation.
Do not buy options. Just hold the shares you already have, and perhaps average down on dips until you have an amount you're comfortable holding. I also prefer $MTUM over straight S&P ETFs.
Small cap can be a disappointing mistress. I am more content with market weight or a mechanical index like MTUM that shifts with the wind but does not depend on my mood or attention. Its very hard to be disciplined and right consistently.
Strategies for growth: 1. Follow a stock exchange: QQQ 2. Believe in momentum: MTUM 3. Large cap growth: SPYG / SCHG 4. Innovation: ARKK 5. Dividend growth: SCHD You’ll have overlap - but overall fundamentally different reasons on how these ETFs are compiled.