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Profiting from Natural Gas Prices falling below energy producers breakeven prices on February 17, 2023.
Profiting from Natural Gas Prices falling below energy producers breakeven prices on February 17, 2023.
Already heavily in index funds but now looking for individual stock picks - I’m planning on adding around $4k each month balancing them.
OVV (oil and nat gas) has 15-20% short of shares outstanding
Literally every indicator on the 1 -Day Time Scale Chart or Larger ALL SHOW BBBY Could REPLICATE the initial GME run of 2020/January 2021. No momentum is as strong as it could be… Look at the OBV indicator! That high OVV value represents ALL BUYS NO SELL….MOST ARE HOLDING. LFG!
Inflation: What to Expect and How to Defend Yourself $TBT , $UVXY
Inflation: What to Expect and How to Defend Yourself
Dumbasses like me who still own Alibaba, must read
How to hedge against inflation Michael Burry style. Part 2.
How to hedge against inflation Michael Burry style. Part 2.
Stupidly foolproof strategy to buy stocks based on the proverbial "value"
GameStop Is Joining the Russell 1000, but AMC Isn’t. How It Affects the Stocks.
Mentions
Why not some US pure Shale producer like DVN, APA, SM, OVV, EOG ?
Where do you see the dominoes start falling? Do you think it'll be bad enough that US developers like OVV start failing and at that point you go in or are they already struggling enough. OXY is close to pre ukraine prices again so seems like a good bet with Trump pivoting away from leaning on ukraine to surrender quickly and drop sanctions on russia.
Why did you pick OVV over other oil companies?
I don’t do options with the exception of one small option on OVV in hopes it’ll spike big with upcoming Iran attack. Long call nov 15th. Total $52 invested in options. Rest is stocks and ETFs plus $17k cash.
I own 10 shares of oil stock (OVV) Robinhood gave me one share free when I joined years ago I’ve noticed it goes super green when people are dying en masse, wars, hurricanes, ect. People must die badly if I expect it to stay green.
Ovintiv - $OVV Excellent North American operator with vast untapped oil and gas reserves in some intriguing areas (Montney, Uinta), as well as core locations in Permian and Anadarko. They'll likely be acquired by a larger operator due to their low market cap relative to their asset quality, so the share price jumps either due to that premium or because investors start to see and appreciate the longevity and steady-state, sustainable returns they've been delivering for years (as opposed to "flash in the pan" large special dividends *cough cough Devon* or buyback programs that can't remain in-place forever)
I went pretty big into the energy theme in relation to data centers. Calls in ENB, OVV, BEPC out to Jan and BOIL for next week. Natty gaz gonna run Peeps!
Guarantee it’s either OVV, telecommunications (see Telus, or Roger’s) or some other ghey bs I have set up in my wife’s blue chip dividend fund
You’re right, let not talk about individual stocks. XLE, the oil industry ETF is up 53% since 2014. SPY, is up 300%. SMH, the semiconductor ETF is up 1000%. Oil is a dead end - I say this having heavily invested in OVV and OXY in 2020.
Sure man it'll be rough math but my source is Roaring Kitty - Tools Part 3 of 3 (spreadsheets) recorded on 6/23/20 according to him: port % / ticker / price in video / High of Stock since that video 2.17 TSE $22.51 High of $76 2.01 RRC $5.84 High of $36 1.93 PTEN $4.21 High of \~$20 1.92 PBF $12.06 High of $56 1.9 NGD $1.27 High of \~$2.3 1.57 RFP $2.18 #Can't find the high, think the stock was delisted but I did this before and this doesn't seem familiar, pretty sure it was higher although let's just assume it's a loss for the heck of it 1.55 CNR $5.96 can't find, stock was renamed 1.54 PUMP $5.44 High of \~$15 1.4 OVV $10.38 High of \~$60 1.33 FTK $0.98 High of $18 1.26 WTTR $5.12 High of \~$9.50 1.23 MAC $8.98 hIGH OF \~$22 might have done smth wrong and not accounting for weird conditions but there ya go
E&P companies have been the best for me. OVV had a good ride, but I have been shifting to more oil focused plays like EOG (with a much better balance sheet) as energy prices have moderated lately. Also, moving to HES (as a way to get CVX at a discount) to have intergrated exposure. Worst have been the refiners, although I haven't bought any in years. Their margins are so unpredictable, I never have figured out a good strategy for playing them, so I just stay away.
Thungela is a south African cola miner trading at x1.5 free cashflow TTM. S.A. is a bit of a basketcase, but I find the chances of nationalization slim enough to hold this one. Equinor trades at x3.5 fcf TTM. OVV trades at X6 TotalEnergies trade at x7 MRO & MPC (refining) trade at 7ish Crew energy is a small canadian, very interesting Just to mention a few
You have enough money, why risk it all? Just buy XOM or OVV and collect the diviend
This play is pretty stupid, but you might actually get bailed out here. Something is wrong with the Nasdaq. I'm net long the market, but tool a short ok Nasdaq Friday because when you look at stocks like MSFT, TSLA, AVGO, the market is not nearly as strong as what the index seem to suggest. I'm long ADM, OVV, SXC, and EWBC. Texh might be in some trouble here, start of a new month, earnings on AMZN and AAPL could actually act as a downside catalyst. Good luck, you'll need it. Shorting NVDA specifically is a bit daft though. Watch AVGO.
They are set to inflate the debt away. They did so after WWII when the US government had a equal massive debt to GDP. They are doing the same thing again. In 7 years prices on goods will be double what it is now. Commodities is your baby. I find energy companies like EQNR, MRO, MPC & OVV very cheap, but copper miners like FCX expensive.
At $500 obviously do it imo. If you can afford $500. Similar thing happened to me with OVV was able to buy a lot when it dropped to $4 and saved my ass now up 100%
>NGP ENERGY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT PLANS $7 BLN SALE OF PERMIAN OIL PRODUCERS TAP ROCK, HIBERNIA - SOURCES $OVV $MTRD ^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2023-04-05 ^09:00:19 ^EDT-0400
If i were to make investment advice, and I'm not an investor so keep that in mind; I would suggest owning QQQ above the 50 week moving average. If you want to fundamentally analyze things, it's a skill that takes years of cultivating and extreme intelligence. Suggesting owning American stocks because "the rest of the world sucks" is... crazy. There are tons of solid business outside of america. I've had experience buying companies that were priced for bankruptcy in times of great panic (covid). I bought a portfolio of only OVV, CEIX and ARLP in the month of march. My family likes to own canadian banks. You could consider owning the highest yielding one, they tend to perform extremely handsomely if you rebalance the portfolio to the highest yielding one every year. But like I said, the best strat of mine is owning QQQ, preferably with leverage the week it crosses above the 50w. I think, if you want to learn about market timing, which is an essential skill to investment that people like buffett have nailed (but lie, and say they dont care) you should look into market breadth. You can learn about market breadth by studying T2108 on TC2000 or using any other method you google. Waiting for QQQ to cross the above the 50w MA is a breadth indicator. If you would like to become extremely good at the topic, there are plenty of incredible traders on Stockbee's website. The guy's a bit cooky and sometimes demeaning, but a membership on the site will teach you a lot about market timing, which will help your investment portfolio. ​ Those are my thoughts, I hope they're insightful.
27 years old and investing for 5 years now. This is my equity portfolio: 15 cash (for bargain opportunities) BN 15% BAM 10.5% OVV 9.65% QRTEA 8% GEO 7.27% FANG 6.66% ATVI 5.83% WBD 4.95% FG 4.82% STLA 4.19% HPQ 3.65% PARA 2.38% For every stock in my portfolio I have done extensive research and I can tell you everything you want to know about the stock or my specific size in the portfolio. Feel free to ask so we can both learn
There are definitely sooo many better options in the Oil and gas stocks realm. A few favorites are CVX, OXY, DVN, SM, OVV, DINO, PXD
I have 8 but 60% is in 3 stocks: 25% BAM 25% OVV 10% FANG Heavy in energy and one spinoff stock
I’ve done very well with OVV and COP.
I don’t want to make a long-term guess, but in a short term I am reasonably confident that oil and gas stocks are going to surge because we will simultaneously have: - midterm elections in the rearview mirror, putting an end to all speculations and associated instability - winter weather (particularly relevant for natural gas) - strategic petroleum reserve release finally completed (thanks to our favorite senile communist...) - fully effective ban on Russia oil and possible Putin’s retaliation - OPEC continuing their recent cuts strategy - China sooner or later will release the zero-Covid restrictions and gradually reopen. Based on a little proprietary model I built for fun, my top recommendations (in random order) are OXY DVN EOG SM DINO OVV ERF APA. Disclaimer 1: not financial advise Disclaimer 2: I own relevant long position in all the above oil companies
Calls on oil and gas perhaps??? Oil and gas is going to surge in the late fall and 2023 because we will simultaneously have: - midterm elections in the rearview mirror - cold winter weather (particularly relevant for natural gas) - strategic petroleum reserve release finally completed (thanks to our favorite senile communist...) - fully effective ban on Russia oil and possible Putin’s retaliation - OPEC continuing their recent cuts strategy - China sooner or later will release the zero-Covid restrictions and gradually reopen. Based on a little proprietary model I built for fun, my top recommendations (in random order) are OXY DVN EOG SM DINO OVV ERF APA. Disclaimer 1: not financial advise Disclaimer 2: I own relevant long position in all the above oil companies
Oil and gas is going to surge in the late fall and 2023 not because of Republican success, but because we will simultaneously have: - midterm elections in the rearview mirror, putting ban end to the pre-elections speculations and associated instability - cold winter weather (particularly relevant for natural gas) - strategic petroleum reserve release finally completed (thanks to our favorite senile communist btw) - fully effective ban on Russia oil and possible Putin’s retaliation - OPEC continuing their recent cuts strategy - China sooner or later will release the zero-Covid restrictions and gradually reopen. Based on a little proprietary model I built for fun, my top recommendations (in random order) are OXY DVN EOG SM DINO OVV ERF APA. Disclaimer 1: not financial advise Disclaimer 2: I own relevant long position in all the above oil companies
I don’t want to make a long-term guess, but in a short term I am reasonably confident that oil and gas stocks are going to surge because we will simultaneously have: - midterm elections in the rearview mirror - cold winter weather (particularly relevant for natural gas) - strategic petroleum reserve release finally completed (thanks to our favorite senile communist...) - fully effective ban on Russia oil and Putin’s retaliation - OPEC continuing their recent cuts strategy - China sooner or later will release the zero-Covid restrictions and gradually reopen. Based on a little proprietary model I built for fun, my top recommendations (in random order) are OXY DVN EOG SM DINO OVV ERF APA. Disclaimer 1: not financial advise Disclaimer 2: I own relevant long position in all the above oil companies
I don’t want to make a long-term guess, but in a short term I am reasonably confident that oil and gas stocks are going to surge because we will simultaneously have: - midterm elections in the rearview mirror - cold winter weather (particularly relevant for natural gas) - strategic petroleum reserve release finally completed (thanks to our favorite senile communist...) - fully effective ban on Russia oil and Putin’s retaliation - OPEC continuing their recent cuts strategy - China sooner or later will release the zero-Covid restrictions and gradually reopen. Based on a little proprietary model I built for fun, my top recommendations (in random order) are OXY DVN EOG SM DINO OVV ERF APA. Disclaimer 1: not financial advise Disclaimer 2: I own relevant long position in all the above oil companies
If you wish to start fresh, this is a good time to start swing trading and mid-term investing in oil stocks. I don’t want to make a long-term guess, but in a short/mid term I am reasonably confident that oil and gas stocks are going to surge because we will simultaneously have: - midterm elections in the rearview mirror - cold winter weather (particularly relevant for natural gas) - strategic petroleum reserve release finally completed (thanks to our favorite senile communist...) - fully effective ban on Russia oil and Putin’s retaliation - OPEC continuing their recent cuts strategy - China sooner or later will release the zero-Covid restrictions and gradually reopen. Based on a little proprietary model I built for fun, my top recommendations (in random order) are OXY DVN EOG SM DINO OVV ERF APA. Disclaimer 1: not financial advise Disclaimer 2: I own relevant long position in all the above oil companies
I am reasonably confident that oil and gas stocks are going to surge because we will simultaneously have: - midterm elections in the rearview mirror - cold winter weather (particularly relevant for natural gas) - strategic petroleum reserve release finally completed (thanks to our favorite senile communist...) - fully effective ban on Russia oil and Putin’s retaliation - OPEC continuing their recent cuts strategy - China sooner or later will release the zero-Covid restrictions and gradually reopen. However, unfortunately PBR doesn’t quite seem to be in the best position to surf this wave, as others have been pointing out. Based on a little proprietary model I built for fun, my top recommendations (in random order) are OXY DVN EOG SM DINO OVV ERF APA. Disclaimer 1: not financial advise Disclaimer 2: I own relevant long position in all the above oil companies
I am reasonably confident that oil and gas stocks are going to surge because we will simultaneously have: - midterm elections in the rearview mirror - cold winter weather (particularly relevant for natural gas) - strategic petroleum reserve release finally completed (thanks to our favorite senile communist...) - fully effective ban on Russia oil and Putin’s retaliation - OPEC continuing their recent cuts strategy - China sooner or later will release the zero-Covid restrictions and gradually reopen. However, unfortunately EC doesn’t quite seem to be in the best position to surf this wave... Based on a little proprietary model I built for fun, my top recommendations (in random order) are OXY DVN EOG SM DINO OVV ERF APA. Disclaimer 1: not financial advise Disclaimer 2: I own relevant long position in all the above oil companies
Great post, I enjoyed reading it and I don’t disagree with none of your logic blocks. I don’t want to make a long-term guess, but in a short term I am reasonably confident that oil and gas stocks are going to surge because we will simultaneously have: - midterm elections in the rearview mirror - cold winter weather (particularly relevant for natural gas) - strategic petroleum reserve release finally completed (thanks to our favorite senile communist...) - fully effective ban on Russia oil and Putin’s retaliation - OPEC continuing their recent cuts strategy - China sooner or later will release the zero-Covid restrictions and gradually reopen. Based on a little proprietary model I built for fun, my top recommendations (in random order) are OXY DVN EOG SM DINO OVV ERF APA. Disclaimer 1: not financial advise Disclaimer 2: I own relevant long position in all the above oil companies
This is just another corroborating event upon upcoming elevated oil prices, because we will simultaneously have: - midterm elections in the rearview mirror - cold winter weather (particularly relevant for natural gas) - strategic petroleum reserve release finally completed (fuckin senile comunist...) - fully effective ban on Russia oil and Putin’s retaliation - OPEC continuing their recent cartel shenanigans - China sooner or later will release the zero-Covid restrictions and gradually reopen. My top recommendations (in random order) are OXY DVN EOG SM DINO OVV ERF APA. Disclaimer 1: not financial advise Disclaimer 2: I own relevant long position in all the above oil companies
Oil and gas is going to surge in the late fall and early 2023 because we will simultaneously have: - midterm elections in the rearview mirror - cold weather - strategic petroleum reserve release finally completed (fuckin senile comunist...) - fully effective ban on Russia oil - OPEC continuing their recent cartel shenanigans - China sooner or later will release the zero-Covid restrictions and gradually reopen. My top recommendations (in random order) are OXY DVN EOG SM DINO OVV ERF APA. Disclaimer 1: not financial advise Disclaimer 2: I own relevant long position in all the above oil companies
Oil and gas is going to surge in the late fall and early 2023 because we will simultaneously have: - midterm elections in the rear mirror - cold weather - strategic petroleum reserve release finally completed (fuckin senile comunist...) - fully effective ban on Russia oil - China sooner or later will release the zero-Covid restrictions and gradually reopen. My top recommendations (in random order) are OXY DVN EOG SM DINO OVV ERF APA. Disclaimer 1: not financial advise Disclaimer 2: I own relevant long position in all the above oil companies
If the stocks are in the slight green, sell all, buy oil stocks instead: OXY DVN SM EOG DINO ERF PBF OVV
Definitely oil, as OXY, DVN, EOG, SM, OVV, ERF, DINO
Meanwhile, a silent rally is taking place under the radar for oil stocks. Position: long on DVN OXY SM DINO ERF OVV EOG MPC.
Good time to rotate away from tech for a while, and exploit the favorable (bullish) current scenario for oil and gas stocks. Particularly found of OXY, DVN, EOG, SM, OVV, ERF, DINO, EQT, RRC, SWN.
In Feb/March 2020 OVV was trading under $3. It screamed up to the 40/50s range in less than a year. Best investment I'd made. Also my first. Turned $250 into well over $7.5k
I'm mostly in Canadian companies due to lower valuation vs US ones. Below a list of stocks in invested in at the moment. I recommend you check their financials and free cash flows and compare against forecasted oil ans gas prices. TVE.to BTE.to MEG.to ERF CVE CPG (riskier) WCP.to VET ( EU gas play) AR (LNG play) OVV
I sold most of mine in April but I still have some OVV (with Oct 21 60 calls written against the shares)
Time to add even more positions of OXY, DVN, PXD, SM, OVV, RRC, MRO, MPC
Barbell strategy in the Oil&Gas sector with $NOG as the high risk/high reward play and $OVV and $MTDR low risk/value (50%) You can balance that with 20% allocation in short term duration treasury bonds $SHY ( after the next meeting of the FED) just in case the worst happens (markets crash followed by an economic depression) 20% in precious metals $PHYS or a physical Platinum ETF just in case the proxy war between NATO and Russia gets totally out of control 10% in $FRO. A sure bet if the EU effectively sanctions Russian oil.
>Shares of U.S. oil and gas firms climb premarket, tracking over 2% rise in oil prices \>$OVV, $OXY $DVN $MRO & $LPI climb between 2.5% & 3% \>OPEC+ is due to meet on Sept 5 against a backdrop of expected declines in demand, though top producer Saudi Arabia says supply remains tight ^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2022-09-02 ^07:09:44 ^EDT-0400
Well regards, if you want to play this strategically look at LNG, TELL, EQT, OVV, NFE, SRE... but imagine if there was an Oil and Gas company that PRODUCED oil in France, Germany, Holland, Ireland and other international locations. Well, there is... and they're making bank VET
OVV was my freebie from RobinHood when I opened an account there 3 years ago. They gave me 1 share at 3 bucks. It's at 53 bucks a share now. Should have bought a ton then but I thought, "this ain't gonna do shit, why would they give me a good stock?" 🤷♂️
Buy OXY, DVN, EOG, PXD, SM, RRC and OVV. We are just about to start a new ascension towards $120-130/bbl
Sold puts on SM and OVV. They took the capex hit on the chin after Q1; most peers are kicking the fan down the road and hoping it gets better. Hope isn’t a plan. They’ll be admitting to increasing capex with flat production soon enough
Do you mean PDCE? If so, I’m aware but not really a fan. Their DJ Basin acreage is extremely risky given the political climate in Colorado. While it’s quality and has a low breakeven, I’m not convinced they’ll be allowed to develop it efficiently, if at all. That’s why they have so many permits vs peers of their size. XOM is obviously strong, but has fewer catalysts remaining IMO. Looking at SM, they haven’t announced an increased return to shareholders when they hit a certain debt target. Many of their peers have, so I believe it’s only a matter of time before they do as well. Looking at OVV, they have announced a larger shareholder return structure once they hit their debt target (on track for this quarter, ahead of schedule) so they’ve played that card, but the implementation of the structure will be another catalyst event. I’m extremely bullish for the next 5-8 years, and then I’ll have to re-evaluate given market dynamics. Renewable energy is the future and we should continue to take strides toward it…but for now, conventional hydrocarbons will continue to play a major role in global energy production and natural gas consumption will increase as its used a greener transition fuel than coal. $100 WTI is bad for the industry and the consumer. $70-80, sustained, is a money printer for most of these operators and doesn’t destroy demand.
Continuing to buy up undervalued US E&Ps like SM, OVV, DVN, etc. Energy market fundamentals for the next several years are far too strong to ignore them. I’ve been buying them for years already and this dip is based on the belief that demand for crude and natural gas will dry up immensely; it will not. There is no possible way that it will dry to any meaningful degree for a meaningful period of time. Think it’s gonna be heavily positive earnings calls over the next few weeks, although I’m fine holding if CapEx is up and production is down. Shareholder returns are far too juicy
Look at the FCF generated by Canadian companies such as CJ, SGY, TVE, BTE, OVV, ERF, MEG, ATH, JOY, and so many more. See charts from Eric Nuttall on twitter.
Some other Canadian oil stocks I think would do well are OVV and OBE
Ok ok I joined the oil gang. OVV and NRG
Just check Scion Asset Management on WhaleWisdom . Their holdings are updated every 3 months. Last update was May16. https://whalewisdom.com/filer/scion-asset-management-llc#tabholdings_tab_link He’s short Apple 17.9% Holding BMY 10.9% BKNG 9.33% WBD 9.3% GOOGL 9% CI 8.9% META 8.8% OVV 8.1% NXST 7.1% STLA 4.9% GPN 4.5% SPWH 1.3% It’s a solid portfolio if you’re timeline is less than 24 months. If you’re plan is to copy him, it can be very difficult because he is in and out of positions really often. Sometimes only holds for 1 month, but the updates only come in every 3 months.
> Anyone still bullish on holding Oil companies? Absolutely. > do you think the sector has peaked? Let me tell you something, it hasn't even begun to peak. And when it does peak, you'll know. Because it's gonna peak so hard that everybody in Philadelphia's gonna feel it. > but not sure what other factors to consider with recession incoming, Despite the recession, most people will remain employed and will still commute to work and travel on the weekends/holidays/etc. Will they travel less than they would have if not in a recession? Probably. Is it going to be a significant difference that will meaningfully affect global crude market balances? Probably not. > geopolitics Russia has turned a lot of countries off of putting too many eggs in one unstable basket. Russian crude will be toxic to many for a long, long time. US crude will be much more desirable, relatively speaking. > fundamentals of the supply/demand. Market balance will remain tight for years to come, likely undersupplied through 2023 at a minimum (potentially even later, depending on scheduled improvements in OPEC10 countries) > Is the recent sell off due to fear in the market Yes. I'm buying more US E&P stocks. APA, DVN, EOG, OVV, and SM are all exceptional companies.
Buy US energy companies who have signaled new framework for shareholder returns after hitting debt targets or have yet to follow the rest of the industry in that regard (LPI, OVV, SM, etc.)
Good examples, and I would add APA, LPI, MRO, OVV, and SM as really good examples of strong E&Ps with great acreage, efficient operations, and tons of upside to their share price.
I concur there's tons of room to run. Imagine owning a business where the free cash flow yield is OVER 40% in 2023 assuming 100WTI, trading at just over 2x FCF/EV? That company is Ovintiv or OVV https://twitter.com/ericnuttall/status/1531980069471674368/photo/1
OVV from sub $3 to $60 in 2 years lmao.
Michael Burry is in OVV, just got some calls.
I put most of my $10k Roth in OVV in 2020, and now it's at $55k. It's helped me catch up to where I'm supposed to be for retirement goals.
I’ve been long OXY and APA since 2020. I recently got into some Canadian O&G names like CVE, OVV, CPG and MEGEF but hating myself for not getting in earlier. I do envision a multi year run in oil, as producers have signaled they will maintain disciplined production and will return cash to shareholders. Even if they wanted to increase production, there are many challenges prohibited them from doing so given structural under investment that has been exacerbated by Covid-19 disruption.
DCA through the summer is what I meant. If I buy calls, it would only be on OXY and and OVV.
OVV looks good. Michael Burry has it in his portfolio. Also he has GNP which is at 122. 100 looks like support goimg back 5 years. I like DVN too. Monday I'm going 70% cash. The rest will be diversified and a lot of energy. Keep my UNH NEE SHW and stuff. I'll keep my big tech but am cutting them way back. I might put a little in FB since its beat down so much. Burry also has FB and GOOGL.
Michael Burry like OVV and GPN. They look good chart wise. I looked at them.
$OVV I feel alone in this pain anybody with me
lmao shouldve bought OVV, PE 10.
Calls on OVV. Puts on WMS.
Forget Amazon. Calls on OVV. Puts on WMS.
There are tools available now where you can look at much more than TTM. I've been using this since returning to active investing. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/OVV/ovintiv/eps-earnings-per-share-diluted It's not perfect but it's great to get an idea in less than a minute what you're dealing with.
I have calls on OVV DAL ED NVDA and F Am I going broke or what all in 5k on Wednesday down 23% already average expiration around a month
OXY, OVV and RRC have been doing absurdly well ytd
Do you see the price sustained at this level? Because I've been burned by this sector in the past when the expectation for price was far higher than $6. There is too much excess production and nowhere for it to go. Before covid hit there was flaring everywhere all over the Permian, and companies like OVV were lepers.
>Point is, if there's no performance gap to be closed, that's another reason for me to get out of energy altogether as I view these plays as having an expiration date. Well, all I'll say is that I'm generally less bullish on natgas. Before covid, the permian was flaring enough natgas to fuel 7 million American households...so probably like a third of Europe or something lol. Literally treating it like shit to flush down a toilet. We produce so much of this stuff we have no idea what to do with it, probably why OVV has been a losing proposition since 2010. I still remember the commodities thesis then...was in Encana, i.e. OVV predecessor...that went absolutely nowhere, that thesis then just did not pan out. While the commodities thesis was likely just too early and is likely materializing now (mainly inflation), I don't think it'll apply as much to natgas than oil. We still produce too much of it. I live in the Permian, before covid on any given day outside of the cities I could see several dozen gas flares by just turning around and doing a 360.
​ >That being said, OVV has already had a 1000% gain since covid, so it's not like there hasn't been a gigantic price rise to make investors happy. OVV outperformance since the COVID lows is in the past. It's all about what has the ticker done for me lately now haha. It outperformed oil equities during the period from Delta to Omicron, but lately, it has lacked behind oil stocks of comparable market caps (eg., OXY). In fact, OVV performed in line with the colossal XOM (dividends not included). ​ >Why is there not yet a divergence between pure natural gas and pure oil equity price performance? > >**I wouldn't go by the day to day. I'd go by the month to month and year to year, and in that sense there is no divergence.** That has been my impression as well. That's why I continued to hold nat gas equities, waiting for the current gap in performance to close. Or maybe you're right, there's no gap if you look far enough. Point is, if there's no performance gap to be closed, that's another reason for me to get out of energy altogether as I view these plays as having an expiration date.
>Also, over the past couple days, both US natural gas futures and spot have gone bananas Historically speaking, [natgas spot is still very low](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdW.htm). This isn't necessarily something to get excited about...yet. That being said, OVV has already had a 1000% gain since covid, so it's not like there hasn't been a gigantic price rise to make investors happy. >Why is there not yet a divergence between pure natural gas and pure oil equity price performance? I wouldn't go by the day to day. I'd go by the month to month and year to year, and in that sense there is no divergence. > Shouldn't nat gas equities be outperforming oil right now? Again, OVV has been going gangbusters since the depths of covid. I'm lucky enough to have been in MRO since the depths, and even MRO's performance is dwarfed by OVV.
For sure, nat gas is local. However, this certainly was not the case during last-year seasonal run-up of nat gas (the period after the Delta wave but before Omicron), nat gas price was ripping ahead of oil price and so did nat gas equities. Compare and contrast the Henry Hub nat gas spot with the chart of OVV and its oil peers, for example.
Q2, more like. Bought so much APA and OVV in March/April 2020
OVV and APA are much more efficient producers than PXD. Worth a look at their investor decks
I’ve been into OVV and COP as well as a couple refiners for a good while. I like the domestic producers, less potential for disruption and anybody can make money on $100 oil.
>lol, I was in this when it was Encana back in the day. The inflation thesis we see coming to fruition now was also floated shortly after 2008, and that one burned a lot of people including myself. It convinced me that there's too much natural gas to be profitable. Definitely missed a massive opportunity to have gone into this in 2020. > >Natural gas dynamics are very different than oil...it's more a localized commodity, less attuned to global geopolitics than oil. My understanding is that the US still does not have a significant export capability. > >Anyway, agree with the rest of your analysis, especially the part about tightening of the OXY thesis going forward. Not sure why your comment was deleted. Just want to respond to this. I profited handsomely during 2021 with OXY and OVV. But unlike this year, throughout 2H2021 OVV was outperforming OXY. I sold out OXY and went heavily into OVV after Omicron. Def has learned a lesson about the differences btw oil & gas this time around. I just find it so strange since I think 80% of OVV current revenue is also in oil? Welp...not complaining about the 50% OVV gain, just drooling about OXY's 96% (seriously wtf).
>MHO OXY was undervalued. It fell by far the most in 2020 when covid hit and it had yet to rise nearly as much as steady plays like MRO. The recent upside is catchup. > >When you talk about debt and preferred, all I see is enterprise value and a lot of leverage it can use to extract more profit. The rate on the preferred is annoying though. > >The debt had a specific purpose...it was used to acquire productive assets. It's not zombie debt or "bad debt". All true, which is why I invested in OXY during 2021. But the same upside is also present in A LOT of other equities (eg., OVV) that do not have the same issues as OXY. OXY is undervalued a couple days ago, but so were a lot of other energy equities. The debt melts away with WTI this high, but instead of clearing debt, other equities would be buying back shares and increasing their dividends bigly. It would be different if OXY had capex plans for 3x production growth. After today's 17% run, OXY's FCF yield is now below many other equities (eg., OVV). Energy is still undervalued if oil maintains $90 for FY 2022, but the margin for OXY undervaluation is significantly less now. Clearly, market agrees with your leverage argument. OXY responds both to upside and downside of oil prices.
Im in OBE, TGA, EGY, MGY, CPG, CNQ, OVV, BTEGF, XOM. Spreading it out.
OVV is undervalued by a factor of 30%. I think it has room to grow until they get bought out. We are in an environment where oil demand is high and supply is getting capped by OPEC. The capital budgets of US producers still haven't signaled a shift in high spending. I see more upside in the near term.
$OVV Oil and gas to the moon
> If bad comes to worse, it's still likely that o&g will yield between 10-30% FCF for 2022, **absent a recession**. Herein lies the premise of your entire thesis. If you're betting on crude producers, you're essentially betting on a continued trend of secular economic growth. I don't have a view of O&G producers, but that seems a little ambitious given the circumstances. Add to that the fact that, as you've mentioned, production costs will continue to rise and essentially you're left betting that these companies will sustain pricing power to maintain margins and offset this. > *As WTI rose, the risk curve of investing in oil equities shift leftward. To maintain my risk appetite and return, I started transitioning to more levered bets on oil (so XOM to OXY, PDS, OVV). Very good on you to realize this. A company like XOM operates across the entire vertical, not just upstream. This begs the next question (which you also alluded to), which segment of the vertical will relatively outperform in 2022? I tend to agree with you, and believe that midstream will likely do relatively well in an unstable economic environment. All of this is to say I think you'd be smart to begin taking some profit on **pure O&G upstream**. If you're invested in vertically diversified, I would likely hold through this cycle.