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AYA Gold & Silver. Exotic SilverSqueeze play. 40% of the float is locked up by insiders and institutions.
Silver miners have been decimated the past 2 years. It's finally time to go long
Gold and silver miners are squeezed and are about burst to the upside
Now is time to get some mining stocks and cost average down if the market tanks. Already historically low and if we do have recession/depression gold and silver historically do well. Mining stocks could 10x easy if their is a breakout in PM prices which seems to be a likely scenario
They are devaluing our purchasing power through inflation and creation of FIAT out of thin air. Every Fiat since the beginning of time has collapsed. Only a matter of time before USD and western global monetary system along with it follows suit. It’s all a big debt bubble Ponzi scheme waiting to 💥
The hiking cycle is almost over, why the fed is full of shit
Interest rates, inflation, and where that leaves Gold and the markets.
If you thought the nickel price 🚀 was impressive last week wait until you see silver coming up! the most suppressed/ concentrated naked short commodity of all time! Get your PM mining stocks and get ready for lambo season bitches
Silver Miners still lagging the massive gains in gold & silver
Today is Day 1 for the Silver move. All aboard the Silver Bullet
[MINING THREAD] What are some of the best precious/industrial metal pennystock buys rn? Set me straight fellas
Some feedback on silver and uranium investments please.
If you want a crypto alternative, high beta play, $SILJ is a silver miners etf that « could » make a run towards $70 over the next 12 months. Silver and silver miners are shaping up bullishly. Of course, drink responsibility.
Waiting for the Glass Ceiling to Break
Jan 2022 SILJ CALLS (YOLO!) I've been buying the past 3 months.
Unusual futures activity is incredibly bullish for the metal, the rocket boosters are firing, get on or watch it leave
Gold and Silver pennystocks — 100 baggers, and the train is departing the station.
Smoke alarms are ringing in the silver market, another generational bull market has begun - The ultimate silver DD. $PSLV $SILJ
Incoming! HUGE, I mean MASSIVE opportunity in silver miners in the making. $AG $ HL $PAAS $CDE $FSM $SILJ
STRAIGHT FROM $SIVR PROSPECTUS: Buying silver harms hedge funds and large banks! 🤣
STRAIGHT FROM $SIVR PROSPECTUS: Buying silver harms hedge funds and large banks! 🤣
GET OUT OF $SLV NOW IF YOU ARE LONG SILVER !
There is officially a silver shortage, and silver miners ($AG and $SILJ) are going to triple by May. This isn't a squeeze - it's a bank run.
Mentions
yep, i bought 3000 shares of BTG at $2.80, bought GDX at $50, FSM at $4.50, SILJ at $13. i regret not buying KGC at 4.00 back in feb 2024. i bought losing investments and trades instead at the time.
SILJ options would be the more regarded bullish way
A lesson I've had to continually re-learn over the years is that ETFs are better than equities. Based on your mix, I think you may know that too. But there's still something about those high-flying tickers that draws us to them like a moth to a flame. But I'm done with them for good this time. Too much"single-issue" risk. A missed earnings, an accounting scandal, an ill-timed tweet by the CEO: the stock drops 10% or more. With "basket of stocks" ETFs, you don't have that single-ticker exposure. Because of course a single company might only be 5 or 10% of the ETF. Now, you can have "systemic" risk that affects everything in the ETF, and that's why I avoid the ones that are particularly vulnerable to that: like cannabis and crypto. **With the leverage of LEAPS Calls** *we don't need ETFs to go up much before we're making a great profit.* Right now I've been loving the precious metals and their miners: GLD, GDX/J, SLV, SILJ, XME - there are others. Then SMH, MAGS (there's your Mag7 exposure), IGV, & IWM. IWM is actually a great example of what I look for in a chart: see how smooth it is? Up 20% in the last 6 months, and 2.7% in the last month. Its 444DTE 200C at 81-delta is giving Delta-adjusted leverage of 3.5x. So you take that 2.7% and multiply it by 3.5 to get *9% in the next month* if the trend holds. That's 'enough' return, isn't it? That's why I like ETFs. Take care.
Yeah both SILJ and GDX have more than doubled but if silver runs hard the SILJ upside is greater. Insanely volatile so only calls and only money you don't care losing :)
If you think GDX is too boring for your full regard calls, may I introduce you to SILJ - the silver junior miner etf. If gold manages to finally shake up silver, this bad boy will moon.
Great, I'm glad you liked what you saw. And I meant to come back around and say that CSPs probably aren't what one would want to be doing against ETFs, even like these ones. But let me check before making that assumption: 30-delta at 30 days, can we agree on that as kind of a standard? Then SILJ pays pays 1.7% on its 27-delta 31DTE (from tomorrow) 31Oct25C. Apy that to about 20%. That's a serious yearly return for most investors. MAGS is doing 16%. And SMH 17%. But no, I play them with the leverage of long Calls. A year out, 80-delta. *This might change the way you invest, so read on at your own peril!* I'll use SMH because it has the tightest B/A spreads here AH. The 445DTE 18Dec260C at 81-delta is going for **89.60** at Midpoint. Spot is **322.66**. That means that instead of paying $32,266 for 100 shares, you can 'control' 100 shares for only $8,960. Divide to find that you can control 3.6 times as many shares for the same amount of money. But then the option only increases at 81% of the rate of shares, so multiply that by 0.81 to find that *you're getting 2.9x leverage to SMH.* And here's the fun part: you get to multiply that by whatever SMH does over the next week or month or whatever. SMH has done 11% over the last month. If [momentum persists](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927538X18303998?via%3Dihub#preview-section-references) and it does that *next* month, how does 32% in one month sound? So yeah, look into 80-delta LEAPS Calls as *stock substitutes.*
Not *technical* indicators per se, but I chose to respond when I saw you look for an up-trending 5y chart. Because that's what I do too: look at charts and say, "This thing is going up, let me do something with it." Only I don't look at 5 years, or even 1 year. *I sort by 3-month,* but *look* at 6-month charts. And then I don't look at anything else. (Only that they have options.) I just did that exercise over the weekend and picked **SILJ, SMH,** & **MAGS.** Look at their charts and ***note how smooth they are.*** Compare to MSOS & ETH, for example. Sure, those have gone up more than my 3, but do you think you could reliably write CSPs against those? You can use Barchart's ETF screener to find ETFs like I do. I made this little [Snipping Tool video tutorial ](https://imgur.com/a/barchart-etf-screening-VbwTWxy)the other day to show someone how. Cheers.
GDX GDXJ SIL SILJ are just guarunteed daily gains
I doubt metals would get crushed 9 months running from Q4 this year all the way to end of H1 next year. I think (just a hunch) metals put in a top here in the first weeks of October and chop sideways until year end where GDX finishes YTD something like close to 100% and silver finishes the year up something like 50% or 40%. But silver trades 23 hours a day. Silver deficit is 200 million ounces per year. The top 10 silver stocks in SILJ annual production is 100 million ounces combined. The silver annual deficit consumes all production from most of the SILJ components inside the first six months of any given year. You can't print silver. I'm curious to see how the metals and mining stocks react when retail starts buying coins and bars online and at coin shops. It wont be more than a few weeks before sold out signs are everywhere and you can't find silver anywhere. Disclaimer I'm a perma bull That's how I see it.
Good question. If I had no position and had to build one from scratch starting today how would I do it? I would buy in the money calls in GDX JAN2027. GDX should be sheltered most from a silver raid because it is so heavily weighted to large cap senior miners and has a lot less to do with silver. If the trade goes against you after entry that in the money strike is now an out of the money strike. I'd add to it. I'd also open up a new position in an in the money strike (post raid). Repeat this process to the other symbols. And be patient. Add a little each week over the rest of Q4. Don't take big bites. If you go hard you can't defend your cost basis and you can't average down in the event it goes against you. We could go parabolic from here but the GDX is up like 120% YTD and Silver is up almost 60% YTD. I can tell you in 2023 and 2024 both times October and November and December gold and silver got clobbered. I think it was to destroy the JAN strike stacks in the mining sector. I don't see The Cabal just letting silver and gold rip unchallenged. I expect raids, margin increases for futures contracts, profit taking by longs all of this at an opportune time like when China will conveniently be on week long holiday and not pumping metals in the US overnight session. If I'm wrong and it just rips faces off without pulling back then the individual is going to have to decide to fomo in or sit it out. Another idea would be to have only SILJ call options and shares of BKRRF or some other strong junior. There is a lot of overlap between the ETFs. If you own SILJ you already own CDE, PAAS, AG, EXK by proxy. They are healthy weighted components. The time to have been getting in was a year ago when I was trying to get you guys excited about this. This has the potential to turn into a long lived bubble that ends in a panic mania. Silver ratio still extremely high. WSB still deleting my posts (I posted this exact yolo there, insta delete). No one is looking at the metals yet and fewer are looking at mining stocks. I just don't know if there will be pain and if so how long is it going to last and how painful is it going to be. All I know is this is sustainable. The hardest thing to do is sit in a speculation and do nothing, just wait, years need be. Trading in and out is a fools errand I already left massive sums on the table selling earlier in the summer to reposition into deeper expirations. I've been selling JAN2026 calls (that Ive been sitting in for a year or more) and using the proceeds to buy and build JAN2027 calls. I have done very well but I wonder if it would have been the same results if I had not sold a single position all year up until today. If in H1 2026 this sector is under attack I still have at least half a year to average in and managed unrealized losing positions. Just speaking for myself you guys are going to have to take the appropriate risk/reward positions that you can live with.
SLV PAAS SILJ Take your pick. GLD HL GDX
"Supernaturally indifferent," I loved that! You didn't know that some tickers had only Monthlies, is that it? I think that's the norm for most ETFs, and probably stocks too. 4%/month rolling EWTX out isn't bad at all: 48% apy or thereabouts. Plus the stock is trying to go up, it looks like. MSOS: I see it near the top of the list when I screen ETFs on 3-month performance (along with crypto stuff), but it's a little too choppy for me. Plus I've traded it before and been burned when it dropped because some legislation didn't pass or something. In fact, I see it's in a month-long downtrend now; did something like that happen? It does have some juicy premiums though. Give me GLD's steady rise, and the fact that it doesn't drop quickly. Or the miners: GDX & GDXJ. Also silver miners: SIL & SILJ Steadily up with very few and small hiccups. *Wrote your own app!* Beyond my skill level, but that's really awesome! Take care.
You're welcome. As for "buying the dip," I don't. One probably should, but I don't have the patience for it. And what's a "dip"? 1 day? 3 days? A week, a month? If you want, wait for a single down day and buy in then, it should make the LEAPS Calls a bit cheaper. You asked about risk: do you buy stocks now? If not, you should start there before buying any Calls. But a 'long' Call (one you've bought) is like being long stock: you're exposed to the stock's ups and downs. And that gets amplified when you own Calls. Fun when the stock goes up, not so much when it goes down. So that's the risk: that the stock goes down. ETFs are safer than individual stocks in that regard, so that's why I trade them. When you buy stocks, do you have a "stop-loss" point? A percent-down where you sell the stock because it's not doing what you thought? Same with long Calls. I generally use half: when the Call you've bought loses half its value, sell it. But with gold ETFs (GLD, GDX, IAU, and even silver, I like SILJ) I don't think you have to worry about them going down in today's environment. So go ahead and buy one and watch it just once a day, or once a week. As the underlying ticker goes up, the Call will go up by that leverage factor I showed. Then you simply hold it until and unless its price goes down by whatever you set for yourself as a stop-loss point. Take care.
I've been loving gold since March, so I'm in **GDX, GLD, IAU,** and also **SILJ** and **XME**. In fact, I just calculated this evening, and 87% of my holdings (nearly 90k) are in precious metals. So yeah, if you like the price action, then just buy some LEAPS Calls and hold on for the ride. u/sam99871 said 90-delta, and that's fine, but I think most would say 80-delta. That's what I use anyway, and **never less.** Because that's plenty of leverage. And that leverage cuts both ways, always remember that. Have you bought LEAPS Calls before? Do you want to buy them for the LTCG tax treatment? Either way, go out to the 448DTE Dec '26 expiration and grab the 60C at 80-delta for **21.10**. Or slide up to 90-delta and take the 51C for **27.75**. Not a lot more, and a good bit safer. Do you know how to calculate the leverage these long Calls give you? (Spot / Call price) x Delta (74.68 / 21.10) x 0.80 = 2.8 The Call will appreciate 2.8 times as fast as the shares. And with GDX doing 21% in the past month, that could translate into 58% if it does it for the *next* month. Pretty stout.
You've got 'em! And while I have your ear: don't think of 'options' as something you 'do'. There's some of that, to be sure, but if you'll focus on **buying Call options instead of shares**, you'll enjoy 2 to 5 times leverage to the underlying. So pick an ETF that looks like it's going up fairly smoothly (GLD and SILJ right now, plus some others), and invest in it with long Calls. Then watch how fast they appreciate if you get the direction right. Have fun!
Today I made this little [Snipping Tool video](https://imgur.com/3PfqVe4) that shows how I screen ETFs on Barchart. I start with all non-leveraged ETFs (but keep the -1 or Short ones), then add a "Has Options" filter. After that, sort by 3-month performance, then start looking at charts. The video show 3 charts I like: REMX, CNXT, & SILJ I'd appreciate if you could try that on Barchart and see if you can do what I did there. I pay them for some extra features, so I'm not sure what a free account can see or do.
Just got some SILJ leaps for the added juice
SILJ call market makers are smoking tar these bid/ask spreads are absurd
So SILJ prob the best pick then?
Go for an index. SILJ is the most behind of the big 4 miner index (gdx, gdxj, sil, silj) and gives you the most alpha I think. I also love copper miners for a can’t lose long term position (copx). Also look into energy stocks (oil, natural gas, coal, uranium). For oil I love CNQ. Awesome business with huge dividends, well run, money printer atm basically. Nat gas, I like anterro and range recources. Coal I love the upside for CNR, it looks to have bottomed and is reversing with lots of upside. URA/URNJ for uranium. These all tend to perform very well after gold leads a move up and they’re all very beaten down right now besides uranium which has been flying with the metals.
URA SILJ PALL PPLT OIH XOP GDX MOO REMX, I’m mostly invested in smaller mining companies that are undervalued…but these are some broad plays that I think have a lot of upside potential over the medium to long term
Mixed, the GLD calls are 350-10/31, SLV is 60-1/15/27, SILJ is 22-1/16/26, GDX is 75-1/26/26
How much longer do I ride these GLD, SLV, GDX and SILJ calls?
I’m glad I gave you something to think about. Hopefully I can stop thinking about it and fall asleep tonight. Gold has gone up in recent years totally uncorrelated to the stock market. It is now a safe haven and out-performer — although most media isn’t talking about it. Saying it only performs during crashes is not consistent with your recognizing its performance in recent years. But I get that it really shines at those scary moments. I would also encourage you to look at the miners (eg. GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SILJ, etc). They are highly undervalued and printing cash. Gold’s performance of late should make any prudent investor want to carefully consider it. It certainly has impressed Mike Wallace, CIO of Morgan Stanley, and the biggest bond salesman of all, Jeff Gundlach. Commodity bull cycles happen.
I would sell and put in SIL or SILJ.
Buy silver miners PAAS and CDE also go big on the ETF SIL and SILJ.... your still early id buy some now then some at a pull back. Gold and silver will run hot through next year I see a triple digit silver coming early next year is about to go parabolic as people start the fomo trade soon
I've gotten to finally (hopefully for the last time!) where I only trade ETFs. So start there: ETFs. And don't worry, there's enough performance/return/juice in the ones I'm going to show you how to find that even a person who just buys *shares* would be delighted. I use Barchart for my simple scanning. It's generally free, but there's a step in here that you might need to sign up for a free acct for, or that you might actually need to pay for their base plan. Across the top, click "ETFs." In the pulldown, left side middle, click "ETF Screener." Three rows down, "ETF Leverage," UN-select all but Long and short. No leveraged ETFs, but inverse ones (if they're only -1x) are okay). Next row, "Add a Filter," add these two: \- Has Options \- Volume >1,000,000 (This may be the part where you have to have an account, free or paid; I don't know, because I pay them.) Note that after finding and clicking each one, you have to click 'Add' to shove it down below the "See Results" button. For Options, leave empty the "Only those with weeklies" button. Or you can add it. For Volume, it should default to "Greater Than." Type in 1,000,000. Feel free to lower that number, there's nothing magic about it. Now hit "See Results." I get 153 hits just now. Two rows under that: "Load a Screener," pick "Performance." In the table header, click "3M %Chg" to sort descending, most to least. Now look at that column: did you ever in your wildest dreams think there was a non-leveraged ETF doing 98% per quarter? Heck, even leveraged! No, you probably didn't. I didn't. And 77 & 75% for 2 Ethereum funds. But those kinds of things are volatile and spikey and I don't like them. But look at SILJ about 4 rows down: 35% over this past quarter. Is that 'enough'? I think it is. And more importantly, do you think it might continue to do that for another month or three? I do, and this is why: [Momentum in equities persists](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927538X18303998?via%3Dihub#preview-section-references). Skim through that "synthesis of the literature" to see study after study that has proven it. Okay, so you could go right down the "3m %Chg" column and buy a few and probably do fine. But I like to look for smooth upward price action. And **here's the very best part of Barchart** in my opinion: Upper right of the table, click on **flipcharts**. And now you're looking at a collection of all the symbols you just scanned and sorted; see them across the top? Upper right, change Template to Line. Towards the left, leave the timeframe at 6M. Though you can change to 1Y, which I often do, but the Liberation Day trough disrupts what you're seeing.
Super excited for metals and miners. They are back in style. GDX SILJ SLV GLD PAAS
I've been long **GLD** LEAPS since March 5th. Such a beautiful chart for the prior 18 months. Then April and the doldrums. But I held through, steadily selling CCs, so I'm glad for the breakout. I'm also in **GDX, IAU,** and **SAND.** That's all for gold, but for silver I'm in **SILJ**. And for general metals, **XME** and **WPM**. This precious metals run has a while to go in my opinion.
I second **GDX** and **XME**. **XLU** has been good to me, but this little dip lately hasn't been fun. Mostly I wanted to second this: >I use LEAPS to add leverage to...ETFs. ETFs often get overlooked, but many of them actually have great returns: **GDX** 106% ytd, **XME** 52% And some don't: **XLU** 13% ytd But add the leverage of LEAPS Calls and watch out! For **XLU** you get 5.3 times leverage, adjusted for delta. So that ho-hum 13% becomes 68%, which is more than solid. Then sell low-delta Calls against them if you like, for a little extra juice. ETFS are quite a bit safer than individual stocks, because they don't have "single-issue risk." I use Barchart's ETF screener on 3-month performance (Has Options, Volume >1M shares), then look at their charts till I find **smooth** ones. Going up, of course, but 'smooth' takes precedence over return. Some others I like right now: **SIL/SILJ, MAGS, MCHI, XLC**
GDXJ, SILJ, SRUUF. Moved deeper in harder commodities. Also started natgas and oil long positions.
GDXJ, SILJ, SRUUF. Deep in harder commodities. Also starting natgas and oil long positions
Firstly, don't screen for *options*, screen for good **underlyings** first. Then Barchart (free) is good for that. ETFs are much safer than individual stocks, so I'd rather see you searching there. And don't worry, when you play ETFs with options, you'll get PLENTY of ROI. At Barchart: Across the top, click on ETFs. In the pulldown, left column, halfway down, click ETF Screener. DE-SELECT the Double-Long, Triple-Long, Double-Short, and Triple-Short. Leave Short checked. "Add a Filter" row: "Has Options" "Volume >1,000,000." Click "See Results." Change from "Filter View" to "Performance." Sort by "3M %Chg." Click the "flipcharts" button at the top right of the list. Set Chart Type to Line. At the left, leave the timeframe pulldown at "6M." Then skim through all the charts and find ones that are going up kind of smoothly. Don't look at the names, just the price action. (Because your love of crypto or whatever could influence your choices.) Ones that I think are subjectively "good": SIL/SILJ, XME, maybe GDX/GDXJ, MAGS I have real money in all those, playing them with options. Have fun!
GDXJ SILJ invest your money, protect your wealth…the commodity supercycle is here
GDXJ SILJ and chill, generational wealth will be made in this commodity supercycle
Oh sure, I gotcha. But that's the TT way, isn't it: buy them back at half? But it's definitely better than waiting for most of the extrinsic drains out of them. I speak to that a lot around here: buying "first halves" back in less than half them time, so you end up selling more "whole" Calls in a year. I like SLV too, but not as much as GLD. I'm big into GLD, like 50% still, down from 100% when it flat-lined after April. I'm in SILJ though, the Junior Miners. In about 2014 I had that one double for me once in 4 months. Fun times. Fair winds and following seas!
SIL best way to play miners when sectors rotate and big money goes into silver. SILJ more speculative, but still hold great companies like AG and HL as top holdings, heck even GDXJ has PAAS, pan American Silver as its top holding
I personally think it’s gonna go much higher but I could be wrong. But I’m not sure if it will go to 50 within a week this time though. Anyways, I really believe that buying SILJ January 2027 30 dollar options might be smart. I own some. But maybe they might be too pricy tomorrow if the silver price keeps going up.
Check out silver price. Just passed 40. Might be poised for a big rally. You could ultra leverage with SILJ options
Sold my GDX for 30% gain and piled it all into SILJ @ $13. I just think silver is more likely to double from here than gold. $80 silver VS $7K gold probability guess.
Just buy SILJ calls and print money you apes
Ya SILJ call options look tasty
SILJ 25 and 30 dollar calls Jan 27 thank me later. ( not financial advice)
Unpopular opinion: SILJ
https://preview.redd.it/ya0smn337jhf1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0dfb646d1b44d283ec6c62114373912e0ad8988c GORO/USAS,IAG, UVIX, SILJ, SAND
Plenty. However, If you don’t want to do your homework, I’d recommend the ETF’s. Diversified, safer, dividends. #uranium : URA URNM URNJ #gold : GDX GDXJ SLV SILJ Already had a good run but the generalist investors are not in yet. Plenty of runway in my opinion. Good luck 👍🏼
No, you've got it absolutely right, everything is times 100. So you'd have to find something cheaper you like. Gold has been great since late 2023, but flat since mid-April. Still, it's a great vehicle for the PMCC. The 550DTE 79-delta January 2027 58C is going for **10.80**, just over $1,000. Sell the 32DTE 31-delta 15Aug65C for **0.60**. Not much of a Credit, but not much of a denominator either: 0.60 / 10.80 = 5.5% Annualized that to 63% apy, which is quite solid. Even if gold just stays flat from here. I jotted down **SOFI** last night as a stock that's moving. Spot is 21.75. Buy the 431DTE 82-delta 15C for 8.98. Sell the 32DTE 26-delta 15Aug25C for 0.64. 81% apy See if you like the chart for **SILJ**. **5.65** to buy the appropriate LEAPS Call, then sell the 15Aug17C for **0.40**. 80% apy. So there are others out there you can afford, you just have to find them. Barchart is a good place to screen for stocks and ETFs. Best of luck!
URNM and SILJ (which has significantly less liquidity than SLV) too
XBI, COPX, SILJ etfs will outperform SPY for the next year
Hoping my $SQQQ and $SILJ call options begin to print this week. Also, I loaded up on $SIL, $GDX, $GLD, $SIVR, and $GDXJ last week after selling my $TQQQ and all S&P500 investments late in the day on Friday. I got some really strong negative feelings about the market on Friday afternoon which forced me to take drastic actions across my portfolio including my HSA and Charitable Giving Account which are now in the money market options. I had no intelligence or news just uncontrollable stomach/ gut feelings which got stronger as the afternoon went on until I took actions.
First two rank stacks are SILJ and the next two GDXJ The component list is SILJ. If AG and HL catch up to CDE even a little bit and silver trades higher SILJ is going to print.
Not every commodity, I also don’t think that is a good idea. I would recommend either URNM/URNJ for uranium, XLE for energy, or GDX or SILJ, good luck
I would do gold and silver. Then SILJ silver miners etf, I think their divs are at 5.8%. Nintendo is releasing a new console, my top perform stock
The silver miners cheap historically too compared to silvers current price. ETFs SIL and SILJ have a lot of gearing build in as silver for sure will catch up to it's historical mid range ratio to gold. just reverting that ratio to the lower modern history level would at least 3-4 double the miners stock prices.
I'd rather own silver miners = $SILJ
# **TLDR** --- **Ticker:** GDX, GDXJ, SILJ, PSLV (and various mining stocks) **Direction:** Up **Prognosis:** Buy Jan 2026/2027 calls (slightly OTM) in GDX, GDXJ, and SILJ. Author also notes strong performance in call options across various mining stocks and indexes. **Rationale:** Gold/silver ratio is historically low, indicating potential for a significant price increase in silver (and thus mining stocks). Increased volume in PSLV suggests underlying activity. Author cites US Treasury gold reserves and their implications for gold price. **Bonus:** Watch "Live From The Vault Kenisis" on YouTube for more insight into physical gold/silver market developments. **Risk:** High. This is highly speculative and dependent on several factors that could change. Not financial advice.
I moved a lot into a stable silver mining stock until this market is a bit more stabilized. SILJ is where I'm going to park. With tariffs hitting steel and aluminum and just taking a dump i feel goid over here.
Whew, you were busy the other night! But I’ve got a long response back to you. This has gotten a bit out of control as a me vs. you, or this vs. that kind of thing, so I want to try to dial that back some. But realize that *before I knew you'd only been investing for 4 months,* you came across to me as a die-hard capital-V "value investor." That's a fuzzy term, but I think in general you'd be welcomed into their camp (r/ValueInvesting) with your talk of Fundamentals and P/Es and overvalued/undervalued and maybe 3 years to fruition. I probably read more than I should’ve into your actual words, so I apologize for that. But an obstacle to our being able to communicate effectively is that you're young and inexperienced with the markets. Not that you’re ‘wrong’ about anything, but get another 20 or 40 years of humbling experience and you'll find that things don't work the way they "should." You're still bright-eyed and think you can conquer the investing world, and that's great, we were all there. Some have done better than others, but I dare say no one has yet discovered investing Nirvana. I haven’t, though I keep seeking it. My original post has 52 upvotes, and I suspect most of those aren't following our witty repartee. For many/most of them I hope it's something that resonates with them because they've either been successful with it, or they see that it "should" be successful. And maybe some are just thumbs-upping to encourage me to post followups about what happens. And I'm sure there are some downvotes from value investors saying that momentum doesn't work, but I can't see how many votes are up and how many down. But yes, in an ideal world, it would probably be that all well-run companies would be trading at some multiple of earnings. But this world is far from ideal, especially since the Internet somewhat levelled the playing field (informationally) for average investors, and since Social Media allowed a few of those investors to influence enough others to actually cause a change in stock prices (Gamestop), and since the gamification of trading (Robinhood, Tasty, and now others with fractional shares) has lowered the bar for entry. Used to be you had to have 50 or a hundred bucks and a rotary phone to call your broker to place an order. Then that came down to 35 on a computer, then 25, then 9.95, and now finally free. So now anyone with 10 bucks to speculate with can jump in and *it doesn’t cost them anything.* Do you think people would be making half the trades they do if it actually *cost* them something? If they actually had to be *right* at least enough to cover their cost of admission? Then add algo traders, High Frequency Traders, hedge funds, unscrupulous billionaires, and a federal government that’s lost its fiscal mind and won’t turn off the money printers, and nothing works like it ‘should’ anymore. You’ve made some good trades in your 4 months in the market; can you state succinctly in a paragraph or two what your method is? How did you pick FUBO before that step change in January? How did you pick SOFI before its runup starting in October? Were both picks pretty much, “The P/E is below x, so they’re undervalued”? I’d really like to know. Were market cap or anything else factors? You mentioned “P/E maybe <50” (which seems high to me for 'value'), so are you back in SOFI, which is still only at 37? And when would you sell, typically? Because that’s the part that gets to me the most about how people invest: they find a winner by whatever means, ride it up and make giddy returns that they brag about, then ride that sucker all the way back down. My mom did it with one of the big Mutual Funds everyone was talking about in the ‘90s. Learn that now, my young friend: there’s no need to hold onto a stock once it starts going down. “Don’t get married to it,” people say. So my method. I have to share [this chart](https://imgur.com/a/2qIK5wr) with you. Looks like a stock chart, doesn’t it? The blue line being a stock, the yellow an index, maybe. But the words ‘Average’ and ‘Median’ give it away that it’s not. So what is it? It’s the average selling price on Ebay of all the Nintendo Entertainment System game cartridges and consoles and accessories over the years. You’re too young to even know about that system, but yes, there’s a collector’s market for that stuff (and all video games). And baseball cards, and comic books, and Beanie Babies, and…well, you get the idea. People like to collect “stuff.” Including stocks, ETFs, Mutual Funds, gold coins, real estate, etc. Buy and Holders™ buy stocks as if they’re collectibles, and never sell them. And why? Because of that chart, and the thousands like it. Because things go up over time. Because of demand, because of inflation, because of hope, or a combination of all those and more. I try to find those trends, then ride them. Way back in 2002 I started collecting Nintendo NES game cartridges. Because I’m OCD, and because I liked them. My kids played them. I didn’t get them all, but I got most. And I didn’t even know then that a pricing service like PriceCharting.com existed. But I never once worried that the games I was buying would decrease in value, because what I saw on Ebay and Craigslist and in thrift stores told me they gradually increased in value over time. And that made *and makes* sense to me. Perhaps it’s the makeup of my psyche, just as you alluded to value investing aligning with the way you view the world. We all have different psychologies about life and love and things, and that may be a fundamental reason why you may never see the possibility of “momentum” working, just as I may never understand how “value” can work. But that’s precisely why I started this thread: to put myself out there, in real time for all to see, and then see how it turns out in a year. But that’s a double-edged sword. You said that if you ‘failed’ in 3 years then it wasn’t the system, it was *you.* Whereas if I ‘succeed,’ do you know what’ll be said? Maybe you don't, because you’re so new to this. But some wag will say, quote, “Everyone’s a genius in a bull market.” If I manage to beat SPY, someone WILL say that; even if it’s no longer a bull market by then. And then some OTHER pundit will add, “But can you do that for 5 years? Ten years? No? You don’t have proof of that? Then I’m not interested.” And if I ‘fail’? Do you think >I< will be blamed (as you allowed for yourself)? No. *Momentum* will be blamed, because “it doesn’t work.” “And everyone knows that.” No, everyone *doesn’t* know that. I’m a nuclear engineer with OCD: I’m going to prove or disprove that it works. And not just this year (though that might be all you see on Reddit), but every year into retirement. Because I’ve seen it work before when I’ve dabbled in it. In 2006/7 MCHFX *doubled* for me in 10 months. Simply because I saw a strong uptrend and put my money in it. In 2016 SILJ doubled *in 4 months*. In 1st quarter 2014 I real-time paper traded for some guys at work a momentum system using the Fidelity Select sector funds and made 14% that quarter, while the S&P was up only 3.9%. So I *know* it works, because I’ve seen it over and over. But no one has to believe just me. From this link at [ScienceDirect.com]( https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378426614003252): > Momentum has been well known since the publication of the study by Jegadeesh and Titman (1993), who show that when stocks are ranked into deciles based on their returns over past 12–2 months, the top decile portfolio continues to outperform the bottom decile portfolio in the next year. The article goes on to cite many other studies after that blurb that deal with momentum, but the original Jegadeesh and Titman 1993 study is [here]( chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.bauer.uh.edu/rsusmel/phd/jegadeesh-titman93.pdf). I just need to optimize the parameters for myself. Nothing will be ‘perfect,’ but the more rules-based it is, the better it can be replicated. *And a trailing stop of some sort is integral to that.* And once it’s hit, you stop thinking about that stock and what you ‘might have’ made on it. I don’t know yet what the number is, so I threw 10% out there, which is the typical TS I use. I’ve been reading recently about Average True Range and using some multiple of that as the TS, so more to come on that. And you implied I have some kind of entry points: I don’t. None. Zero. If I find a stock I like, and I have money available, I buy it right then. Though I’m considering at least waiting for a down day for the stock; that’s as far as I’d go waiting for an entry point. You also think maybe I have other screening criteria. I don’t. I did say that it should at least be a company I’ve heard of. And that in itself would likely make it “big enough.” How big is that? I don’t have a number. But this idea hearkens back to Warren Buffett saying something to the effect of “buy what you know.” (Though he was/is buying whole companies, and you and I aren’t doing that.)
If you are not familiar with the sector, I would recommend just buying an ETF like GDX (majors) GDXJ (juniors/intermediates), GOAU (higher performers) , SIL (silver miners) or SILJ (junior silver). There is a very steep learning curve to buying individual companies. You really need to buy a bunch of them. Not only that, often your largest winners and largest losers both are often surprises. I find a new way to lose money every year and I've been in the sector for 27 years. Last year, I lost some money due to a political coup in Niger, for example.
Happy Thanksgiving. Peace and good will on Earth. Charts normalized to YTD. Didn't cherry pick the Feb 28th 2024 low like I normally do. Guess I will keep this short. In my opinion we are in a precious metals bull market. Gold is crushing it lets be honest for a 17 trillion dollar market cap asset not bad up 25% YTD. It is good to see leadership among the GDX and SILJ components. All the charts featured are either GDX and/or SILJ components. Some tickers belong to both. Silver is also up 25% YTD as I write this. It was up 40% YTD at the most recent peak. Silver has taken a major beating. The Silver to Gold ratio is at an extreme of 88:1 The compression of this ratio from high levels to low levels is what really drives the mining stocks whether they be primary gold or silver producers because most gold producers have silver biproduct. The GDX January 2026 calls are performing well if you cherry pick the low. I'm long the 40C and 10C for SILJ. That's about it I suppose. Just wanted to share this and get the word out. Metals have strong fundamentals. We are waiting on silver to get moving. If silver has a face ripping rally in 2025 you want to be in these instruments before the move. Catching a falling knife isn't easy but for me the risk is worth the reward. Let's see if Trump can open up American metals mining for business. If so the tickers are CDE HL BKRRF TGB USAU DC SSVRF TMQ off the top of my head. Disclaimer I'm long SILJ and GDX calls and all these tickers.
Silver, SILJ is at a buy point. Rates will keep going down well into 2025.
Transparency and self awareness are good traits to have if you are going to gamble in the capital markets. I'm still holding this American copper producer/explorer. I got emotional when I saw the silver stock ETF SILJ didn't any longer show TGB on their books. Maybe they had a good reason. I also got Canadian gold explorer wrong and posted as such in another sub reddit. Get it wrong? Admit it, sell or hold and move on or redeploy elsewhere. Appreciate the support. LFG
The GDX is VanEck senior gold producer etf SILJ is Prime's silver "junior" etf which has all the silver producers mixed with some gold production I cover their components Read through my post history The GDX 30 call Jan 2025 is +400% since March same for SIlJ 10 call YT finding value is a mega bull and updates 2x per day What's wrong is there is a bubble in tech and no one in the west is buying metals just foreign central banks, India, Russia, China That will change in the west when rates on the long end go up as Powell cuts the overnight rate and the yield curve steepens and employment rises and the government trade and fiscal deficits blow out even more than they already are right now Drukenmiller turned to gold. Buffet dumped apple for more oil stocks etc etc
Physical gold and call options in the SILJ and / or GDX (long dated, near the money) If you pick individual miners you better know what you are doing or stick to one or two of the large cap producers.
Physical first. If you have money left over GDX leap calls, near money. GDX is 40 right now so I'm looking at GDX $50 calls expiring 2026 and 2027 SILJ GDXJ too
January and December 2026 near money calls in GDX GDXJ SILJ Juniors are a suicide mission NFGC will be a globally significant deposit BKRRF is the 4th or 5th highest grade silver deposit NFGC has call options Producers are better than juniors because they are growing and have ongoing drill programs so they are part junior explorer and part producer I also like leaps for in the money CDE EXK FSM If silver rips for a year the risk will be worth the reward USAU has 10 million float options enabled
Take profit in tech Start long positions in GDX and SILJ call leaps
Way ahead of you. Where do you think I've been plowing my VA checks? GDX and SILJ calls. FML lol
Yea I’ve got quite a few miners. They are historically pretty high risk investments, so proceed with caution. There are some pretty solid etfs for gold and silver miners. GDX, GDXJ, SILJ. GDX and GDXJ have look very good from a TA perspective.
SILJ out performed Nvidia on Friday after Nvidia beat earnings.
As subjective as this is I am counting the start of this developing trend in the gold and silver mining stocks at February 28th 2024. On the physical spot price side of the equation Gold washed out to a final low of just above $1,600 and Silver at $18 at the start of Q3 2022. The silver to gold ratio then was in the mid 90s. Once gold cleared the 2020 August high for the final time and closed above $2,100 she hasn't looked back. Anyone waiting for a pull back and take a wait-and-see attitude has been punished. Silver at that same time broke above $26 which was strong resistance making a 2 year 9 month high and two weeks later closed above $28 which was an 11 year high. Silver at that time was out performing gold and the gold to silver ratio compressed from 90 to 75. When the silver to gold ratio compresses it is bullish for all gold and silver stocks; large cap, mid tier, juniors. The entire sector rallies which you can see in the up wave 1 image. We came off some during the recent market volatility and have since rallied with mega cap tech which is confusing to me. Risk on and proxy risk off (mining stocks) are highly correlated (seen in the image with blue red lines GDX is blue and tech is red). If the stock market experiences a decline due to over valuation, yield curve steepening, rate cuts etc it will be interesting to see if the precious metals mining sector decouples and breaks this correlation or falls in sympathy with general equities. Comex is experiencing elevated levels of physical gold settlement which is covered in painful detail by other analysts namely Michael Lynch and David Jensen on substack. I won't cover that here. Nor the fundamentals for gold and silver it should be self evident and the subject can be tiresome. The GDX is closing the gap on physical gold prices and is in the process of out performing. All we need to kick this sector into high gear is to see silver out perform gold which it has not. It has been under performing gold since up wave 1 completed. This may be conspiratorial but something is up with the silver market. It regularly is smashed by The Cabal in the face of supportive supply demand fundamentals. But that is yet another topic of interest better discussed and analyzed else where. I will say I have seen an amazing intra comex time frame silver chart going back to 1980 that shocked even me. Which is saying something. YTD GDX is beating physical gold which is what you would expect in a precious metals bull market. Will it last? The GDX and SILJ January 2024 call options are making solid gains. PSLV volumes are strong and night and day before/after the March 2024 break out as you can see in these charts. My strategy is largely call options in both the GDX and SILJ going out as far as possible in duration and strikes near the money. Additionally I chose two large cap senior gold producers and bought leaps on them as well. I will attempt to hold through all the volatility and stand strong in the face of my own emotions good or bad as this story develops. I strongly advise against trying to pick stocks. Just index it but with call options and a few high conviction trades with smaller cost basis compared to the index leaps. My base case for gold is when the US Treasury's 261 million ounce gold reserve covers 10% of the national debt. If the debt were frozen at 35T (good luck with that) we simply divide 3.5T by 261mm which equals $13,400. That might take five to ten years. A more conservative and near term calculation would be that the US Treasury Department's 261mm gold oz position reaches a valuation of only 1 Trillion (which would cover the current national debt by 2.8%) which would equal a spot gold price of $3,800. I think we can get there in the next 12 to 18 months. I am smart enough to know I have no idea where the price of gold and silver will actually go and when but it is safe to assume the risk is worth the reward betting on higher precious metals prices via GDX and SILJ.
If I'd do anything for December 2024 it would be in the money SILJ with an expectation it goes against you and average down. It's almost already September. Last year November the mining stocks exploded. December and January the metals sector got destroyed and the entire strike stack went to zero on all GDX and SILJ calls. Time is never on your side so trade accordingly and have a big picture macro view
It's a normal gold price chart (daily) I changed the candle sticks to a white like I marked every 100 incriment with a colored horizontal line to see how gold reacts to round numbers if at all I added the moving averages 100, 200, 300, 400 and 500 I know this chart is a little busy and I don't like that netdania adds dashed horizontal lines at the moving averages values GDX is beating XLK year to date Silver was the top performing asset as we closed H2 2024 and then got stomped Gold will pay well but the real money will be made in silver. It's going to take a long time because that aren't is broken almost beyond repair but they aren't opening any new silver mines and the shorts have depleted a lot of above ground stock piles Silver and platinum are the most undervalued assets imo at this time world wide. I'll be averaging into SILJ leaps every month for the next year.
Where my SILJ moggers at? Gigabullmaxxed precious metal rally incoming.
I have GDX SILJ NEM and PAAS leaps. Then mining stocks got beat up pretty bad these past few years. My opinion.. one of the worst bear markets on record. Still is dirt cheap.
The ratio snapped from 75 to 90 in a short time If we're lucky it will snap back to 75 and all these mining stocks and etfs will explode But yield curve steepening might take everything down first Also the yen carry trade did not unwind as much as people think. The sell off was part yen part buffet I'm buying SILJ GDX Leaps and PAAS and NEM leaps too. I'll buy them all the way down I suppose
I’ve been long SILJ calls. 🚀 🚀 go baby!!
SIL, SILJ, GDXJ, and GDX have a ton of overlap. I would choose SILJ though. tun a chart on tradingview of XAU/gold and you will see that we have the beginning of a breakout of a long consolidation. Never have miners been this cheap compared to gold. So there is a long runway and PMs tend to run suddenly, hard, and fast with very quick pullbacks until they suddenly go into long consolidation mode again. Unless we repeat the 70s
The market is so irrational on PMs. It's absurd that gold:silver is 1:87. It "should" be somewhere in the ballpark of 1:35, but realistically 1:60 would make sense. So I would pound the table that silver is due for significantly higher prices. But I have to reconcile that with the fact that we're just not seeing it. So yeah, very bullish higher silver, like in the $50-60 oz realm, but the market disagrees thus far. I hold an amount of physical silver (I would never advocate for $SLV), and some junior developmental miners that have high torque if silver were to re-rate substantially higher. If I were to own majors, I'd stick with gold and $GDX. $SIL is fine. If you're a sane, generalist investor unwilling to throw your life away reading NI 43-101s, and just want some exposure, it'd be alright. I personally would prefer a more targeted approach. Like, just buy Wheaton. I love me some Pan America, but really I'd only own them if I thought Navidad could be developed, which I don't. The rest is meh. I'm not big on First Majestic until they can clean up Jerritt Canyon. Hecla and Fortuna are fine, but whatever. The reality silver miners are facing is rising costs from the last few years of super hot inflation, but silver prices haven't adjusted to reflect that. So the margins aren't what they should be, and it just makes the sector unattractive, even if I personally think it *shouldn't* be. And being such a small percentage of a "normal" portfolio, I'm not sure if it's even worth the hassle. But yeah, I'd just buy Wheaton and call it a day. If you really think silver is going to re-rate, you should be in the juniors. And not SILJ, which is just a reshuffled SIL, unlike COPJ vs COPX
When PMs run, they run hard. I’ve been long SILJ. 🚀 🚀 🚀
Now since the Gold (& Silver) Miners, are on fire, be ready for some sweet m&a activity! GDX GDXJ. ETFs GOLD AEM. Gld $ SLV ETF pure plays SIL SILJ. ETFs
Rotating all those GDXJ gains into SILJ
Just sink it all into SILJ. 😂
Wtf is SILJ halted premarket?
I'm in the middle of doing more research into silversqueeze. I pulled the components for GDXJ just now to build leader boards. So to summarize AYA is a component in GDX and GDXJ and SILJ. In the investor pressors the CEO claims that the board and management own 50% of the float. Last I looked Yahoo Finance shows it's about 20% of the float. I'm going to do some number crunching and figure this out. but between insiders and the indexes much of the float is locked up. They fund all their exploration with free cash flow and there is no dilution. They hold multiple world records for silver grade drill intercepts. consider this getting in on the ground floor. ​ The catalysts we are looking for is generalist and institutional funds flow into these etfs and when the etfs rebalance they will promote AYA up the ladder of percentage of holdings. If silver can hit 30 in the next two years (reasonable) then AYA will be the leader of the silver producers because they are the only primary silver producer who derives their revenue from silver and only silver. Every other silver producer on planet Earth has some by product of their production being gold and or base metals. This is a pure silversqueeze play. Wish they had options but the shares should 10x over the next five years from the highs. ​ If we have a repeat of the 1970s and AYA does not have any disasters at the mine or in Morroco It's going to do well.
It's up to 8 from 5 (round numbers US ticker) vs silver up to 23 from 21 normalized as of the 2023 October precious metals trough ​ Aya plus 60% vs Silver up 10% It's not very liquid and trades like a penny stock. ​ When rates go back to zero or get cut gold and silver will rally and this stock will continue to out preform. Disclaimer I own it and if it had options I'd own those too. It's a GDX component and If I'm not mistaken a component in the SILJ. ​ Nothing risk free including this ticker but I'm bullish
Silver and gold royalty companies give you exposure to silver while getting some returns. WPM probably leader in that. FNV, MTA, SAND. GNT mutual fund. SIL and SILJ for silver miners, riskier imho. PSLV and CEF are other vehicles.
In the money SILJ & GDX & NUGT January 2026 calls