Reddit Posts
AYA Gold & Silver. Exotic SilverSqueeze play. 40% of the float is locked up by insiders and institutions.
Silver miners have been decimated the past 2 years. It's finally time to go long
Gold and silver miners are squeezed and are about burst to the upside
Now is time to get some mining stocks and cost average down if the market tanks. Already historically low and if we do have recession/depression gold and silver historically do well. Mining stocks could 10x easy if their is a breakout in PM prices which seems to be a likely scenario
They are devaluing our purchasing power through inflation and creation of FIAT out of thin air. Every Fiat since the beginning of time has collapsed. Only a matter of time before USD and western global monetary system along with it follows suit. It’s all a big debt bubble Ponzi scheme waiting to 💥
The hiking cycle is almost over, why the fed is full of shit
Interest rates, inflation, and where that leaves Gold and the markets.
If you thought the nickel price 🚀 was impressive last week wait until you see silver coming up! the most suppressed/ concentrated naked short commodity of all time! Get your PM mining stocks and get ready for lambo season bitches
Silver Miners still lagging the massive gains in gold & silver
Today is Day 1 for the Silver move. All aboard the Silver Bullet
[MINING THREAD] What are some of the best precious/industrial metal pennystock buys rn? Set me straight fellas
Some feedback on silver and uranium investments please.
If you want a crypto alternative, high beta play, $SILJ is a silver miners etf that « could » make a run towards $70 over the next 12 months. Silver and silver miners are shaping up bullishly. Of course, drink responsibility.
Waiting for the Glass Ceiling to Break
Jan 2022 SILJ CALLS (YOLO!) I've been buying the past 3 months.
Unusual futures activity is incredibly bullish for the metal, the rocket boosters are firing, get on or watch it leave
Gold and Silver pennystocks — 100 baggers, and the train is departing the station.
Smoke alarms are ringing in the silver market, another generational bull market has begun - The ultimate silver DD. $PSLV $SILJ
Incoming! HUGE, I mean MASSIVE opportunity in silver miners in the making. $AG $ HL $PAAS $CDE $FSM $SILJ
STRAIGHT FROM $SIVR PROSPECTUS: Buying silver harms hedge funds and large banks! 🤣
STRAIGHT FROM $SIVR PROSPECTUS: Buying silver harms hedge funds and large banks! 🤣
GET OUT OF $SLV NOW IF YOU ARE LONG SILVER !
There is officially a silver shortage, and silver miners ($AG and $SILJ) are going to triple by May. This isn't a squeeze - it's a bank run.
Mentions
HOOD ❤️ Missed the entire GDX SILJ run 😓
So glad I kept all my SILJ calls
SLV SIL SILJ are the go-to ETFs. Personally, I've been doing long-dated calls in these since 2023 and rolling forward every 12-18 months. Underlying shares is fine as well for the less risk adverse. I also have about $3m divided between 40 individual stocks of (mostly) junior explorers, developers, and producers. Some of them are larger and/or gold miners. I can't seem to post a screenshot here, if you DM me, I'll send you my list.
I need SILJ to 28$ by Jan 16.. thanks
That's what my friends tell me. Buying opportunity of a lifetime. So I guess I'm all in SILJ calls in the morning.
!banbet SILJ -1% 1d
Yes, I have calls in $MU, $TE, $LEU, and $SILJ. Have fun
Same, SILJ did amazing today
SILJ up 6% today God damn
IWM, BLDR, USAR, ETHE, COPX, PALL, SILJ, and U (so far)
Great question! I posted the below on another sub some weeks ago, and I think it answers your questions nicely. I'm happy to discuss any of it with you. \------------------------------- Early on I think I realized that ["momentum" is a real thing](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927538X18303998?via%3Dihub#preview-section-references) that could be exploited. That was confirmed for me in 2007 when I bought MCHFX, the Matthews China Fund, simply because it was going up, and *it doubled in 10 months.* After that experience I made a website, MutualFundUpgrading, to talk about MF momentum and how to "upgrade" from poorer-performing funds into better ones. (The site is long since dead.) Then in 2016 SILJ, Junior Silver Miners, *doubled in 4 months*. That's when I got serious about momentum investing. Fidelity Select Funds are Mutual Funds that cover about 35 sectors of the market. For a long time there have been people [momentum-trading them](https://www.google.com/search?q=fidelity+select+momentum+strategy&num=10&sca_esv=5314ac5036c6a181&rlz=1C1RXQR_enUS1137US1137&sxsrf=AE3TifOdnoEiAf0lJqzNkHqUZXjEpNlgcw%3A1761258757914&ei=Ba36aJPFN8jLp84PnOSK2AU&ved=0ahUKEwjT2_2UsLuQAxXI5ckDHRyyAlsQ4dUDCBE&uact=5&oq=fidelity+select+momentum+strategy&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiIWZpZGVsaXR5IHNlbGVjdCBtb21lbnR1bSBzdHJhdGVneTIKEAAYsAMY1gQYRzIKEAAYsAMY1gQYRzIKEAAYsAMY1gQYRzIKEAAYsAMY1gQYRzIKEAAYsAMY1gQYRzIKEAAYsAMY1gQYRzIKEAAYsAMY1gQYRzIKEAAYsAMY1gQYR0jSElDWBliKDHABeAGQAQCYAWKgAcQBqgEBMrgBA8gBAPgBAZgCA6AC0wHCAgcQIxiwAhgnwgIIEAAYogQYiQXCAggQABiABBiiBJgDAOIDBRIBMSBAiAYBkAYIkgcDMS4yoAejDLIHAzAuMrgHzwHCBwMyLTPIBwo&sclient=gws-wiz-serp). I was trying to get the guys at work interested in it, so I paper-traded it in real time, writing my picks on my whiteboard. Over the first **quarter** of 2017 the system returned 14%, vs. the S&P's 3.9%. And the drawdown on February 3rd was just a little worse than SPY's. And only 6 trades over the 3 months. Then I drifted away from that into some other things, but now I'm back and focused: Momentum on ONLY ETFs. And I use LEAPS Calls on those as stock substitutes. Also selling Covered Calls against those.
You need to be in the gold and silver mining stocks..if you are risk averse.. NEM B GDX…more risky higher returns(your young you should do this) GDXJ SILJ AG CDE HL MTA IAG…just dollar cost average buy dips over the next 5 years and you will do very well…god bless…make sure to get some physical too(I think you can wait a bit for this)
\-Applovin is in the S&P500 and PRINTS money \-Arista Networks has $7 billion in revenue \-Micron has $37b in revenue a forward PE of only like 13-15 (!!) \-NBIS signed a $18b contract with MSFT \-SIL and SILJ are the two biggest silver miners ETF's \-Gold is literally the oldest form of monetary worth - we can question whether its overvalued but its anything but a meme The rest are bitcoin miners that have been crushing it until the past few days that in hindsight I clearly shouldn't have overextended myself on... but I wouldn't call Iren a meme.
the irony - the whole point of the post (which was supposed to be entertainment) is that the Meme stock (BYND) outperformed the other investments. I own far more in Apple, Nvdia, Google, Meta, Palo Alto and Amazon. Are those meme stocks to you too? Applovin is in the S&P500 and PRINTS money NBIS signed a $18b contract with MSFT Arista Networks has $7 billion in revenue Micron has $37b in revenue a forward PE of only like 13-15 (!!) SIL and SILJ are the two biggest silver miners ETF's Gold is literally the oldest form of monetary worth - we can question whether its overvalued but its anything but a meme The rest are bitcoin miners that have been crushing it until the past few days that I shouldn't have overextended myself on but was up big on them until these most recent trades.
I feel you - I've got a couple LEAPS on SILJ and GDX.
But OTM Calls are more 'expensive' when the stock goes against you. If you want a lower entry point, IAU costs only 20% as much as GLD. Same for the miners, GDX. And the junior miners, GDXJ, are 25% of the cost. Or try my favorite for some months now, SILJ, at only 25.54 tonight. But please, always [buy at 80-delta or higher.](https://www.google.com/search?q=what+delta+should+you+buy+LEAPS+Calls+at&rlz=1C1RXQR_enUS1137US1137&oq=what+del&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqCAgAEEUYJxg7MggIABBFGCcYOzIGCAEQRRg5MggIAhBFGCcYOzIHCAMQABiABDIHCAQQABiABDIHCAUQABiABDIHCAYQABiABDIHCAcQABiABDIHCAgQABiABDIHCAkQABiABNIBCDE3ODhqMGo3qAIIsAIB8QVSnayMn4eIhw&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8)
Hi, I'm not an 'expert,' but probably 80% of our 125k investible assets are in gold and silver, mostly gold. I prefer ETFs over individual stocks, with their "single issue risks," so I charted NEM against GLD and the miners GDX/GDXJ. I wanted to see how much performance you'd have to give up to go from NEM to one of those. Turns out, [not a lot](https://imgur.com/a/JVBfpzg). Now, I have to admit that NEMs trajectory is quite smooth for a single company, and it tracks the miner ETFs quite closely, or vice versa. I checked ETFdb to see which of those held NEM, and how much: it's GDX, at 7%. In that list I saw that RING has 15% of NEM. And when I plotted it with the others, it's doing a bit better than GDX, about 4% over those 6 months. I bring that up just in case I can get you to do an ETF instead of the stock, then with RING you'd have twice the exposure to NEM than with GDX. And fwiw, I play all my ETFs with 1-year, 80-delta Calls. When they appreciate, I take profit out of them by rolling UP (back to 80-delta) and using the cash to buy 100-120DTE 80-delta Calls. It's been phenomenal. A lot of [this return ](https://imgur.com/a/schwab-account-statement-11oct25-BLwTnhq)is driven by SILJ though, which beats even NEM on the 6m & 3m. Cheers!
I'm heavy into GLD and SILJ (junior silver miners), and I ask myself this question every day. But I watch closely and plan to get out if the music ever stops. Was Friday the start of that? Who knows.
Well I’ve got B NEM CDE PAAS SIL SILJ GDX GDXJ. I’m assuming AG is in there somehow. 😆 Yeah I’m an idiot for doing that.
Delete this. Shit is cooked once WSB starts porting into SILJ
Hey, perfect, I'm glad you found my old post! I've gotten entirely away from CSPs, as here, but on to something much better. And honestly, simpler and much more capital-efficient. To whet your appetite for what's possible, this is a screenshot from my broker Schwab a couple days ago: [3-month return](https://imgur.com/a/note-3m-change-BLwTnhq) Do you see the significance of that number? Doubling in 3 months. I know it's crazy, and I'm flabbergasted myself, but that's what my system has done. I have no way to prove to you that that's real, but ask yourself if someone would spend the amount of time I'm about to spend on you just to blow smoke up your....well, blow smoke. That's a truly life-changing return, and I'm going to tell you how to replicate it. You seem serious, and I like that you have experience with precious metals, though that's not required. It'll take about 3 hours of reading and then practicing in ToS's Paper Money side. Are you up for it? I need you to read just a little bit of this book (it's a pdf): [Options for the Beginner and Beyond,](https://www.r-5.org/files/books/trading/schoolbooks/W_Edward_Olmstead-Options_for_the_Beginner_and_Beyond-EN.pdf) by Professor Olmstead of Northwestern University Just Chapters 1 through 6, which gets you to LEAPS options. Concentrate on Calls as you read, and skip anything about Puts. You're going to implement simple LEAPS Calls as stock substitutes, and when you apply them to silver and gold (and their miners) ETFs, hold on to your...backside. Do you know anything about options? If you do, you should probably forget it. As you read, catch on to the idea that a Call option lets you 'control' 100 shares for a far smaller cost than buying them. That smaller cost gives you leverage: because you'll be participating in most of an ETF's price increase, but you'll have less dollars in the trade. Much less. I'll tell you how, but a lot of this will go over your head until you've read. But that's okay: come back to it after you've learned the terminology. A LEAPS option is one that's 1 year or more out in time. And whether it's a Call or a Put (don't expend ANY brain cells on Puts), it's the same as any other Call or Put. Two rules for buying these Calls: **1 year out or more** **80-delta or higher** (and in Chapter 4, The Greeks, only read about Delta; you don't need the others) Right now I'm in GLD, GDX, SLV, and SILJ. Look them up if you don't know what they are. Look at these 3-month returns. SILJ is my current darling, but look how smooooooth SLV is. Let's work with that. Again, reread this after you've read through Chapter 6 of the book. SLV spot is 49.17. In ToS Paper Money, find the SLV Call option chain 456 days out, in the 15Jan2027 expiration. Buy the 42-strike Call at about **81-delta** for 9.80. (It's AH now, so Deltas and prices are a bit wonky, but just find the 80-delta Call when the market is open.)
GXDJ AND SILJ. I realized 12k on SILJ calls. Rolled them into GDXJ 115 exp next week. 🤑🤑
When you read Yuen you'll find he's farther out in time (2-3 years if available), and deeper ITM (with a formula he uses for B/E as a percentage of spot). And his way is probably better to start with (safer), but 1y at 80-delta is a pretty common recommendation. And yeah, run it on a ticker you like, but be advised that buying options is best done on things that are smoothly going up, and that's not INTC right now. [Here it is ](https://imgur.com/a/Eykwm1N)charted against my current favorite, the junior silver miners. That's a 6-month view, and notice that it's gotten nearly as high as SILJ, *but how did it get there?* Flat, drifting down through June, then up nicely, but the big drop in July, then a sharp recovery, then flaaaaat, then up, up, up, to now flat-to-down. While SILJ has been pretty much like a conveyor belt. I point that out because a long Call is a wasting asset. It loses value a little bit every day due to theta decay. Part of Yuen's going longer in time and deeper ITM is to minimize that, but it's always there. Plus I guarantee it would've hurt if you'd bought your Call on 7/23 and then INTC took that 18% drop. So an ETF is going to be better from a "sharp drop" perspective, but then if you find one that just steadily goes up, the theta decay is more than made up for by the Call's increasing value. Just some things to think about before buying Calls on single stocks. But have fun regardless of what you do!
Yes you can buy Silver and precious metal mining ETFS! SILJ (Silver mining ETF) is doing very well rn (+138% YTD) I have contracts in GLD and SLV because they are the most liquid. Silver has been growing faster than gold with more volatility. This trend is likely to continue due to many macroeconomic/geopolitical factors coming to a head including the Silver Squeeze in the London LMDA. Gold/Silver ETFs are generally more liquid than holding it physically but every ETF has a miniscule fee for holding. Gold is a better hedge and Silver is better for hedging.
Wow, that's awesome, 4x in 3 years! Chasing some meme, man I hear you on that. But I'm done, I swear! Only ETFs from now, and those seldom get memey. (But have you checked out SILJ lately??)
loaded up the boat on USAR, UUUU, UEC, ABAT, UAMY, SETM, IDR, SILJ
I'm holding USAR, UUUU, UEC, ABAT, UAMY, SETM (etf), IDR, SILJ (etf). All shares only. Ranging from 20 shares to 500 on each of these. Got in after discovering the amazing DD on [https://substack.com/@stevezissouu/posts](https://substack.com/@stevezissouu/posts)
You're welcome. SILJ has just been on an absolute tear. Keep an eye on it though, and don't hold on for too long after it rolls over. Funny you mentioned ZEBRAs: I got infatuated with them last year or the year before. They're good, but I gave them up for the simplicity of LEAPS Calls. Run the numbers on each and see how much **leverage** you're getting. I think you'll find that the LEAPS Call gets more. (Spot / cost) x Delta (as a decimal) And you're right about theta decay of LEAPS Calls, but you can cover that by selling CCs. About 10-15 delta ought to do it, but you can figure out how much premium you need to sell to cover theta: LEAPS Call Extrinsic / DTE = theta per day Then if you're selling a Call at 30DTE, say: 30 x theta-per-day = how much premium you need to sell Scroll down the Call chain until you find the one that barely sells for that. It'll generally be 8-15 delta. You can certainly sell CCs higher, like the generally-recommended 30-delta, but I'm starting to tire of having to roll them all the time so I'm generally just doing this now, sell enough premium to cover the cost of owning the LEAPS Call. Have fun!
For silver: First Majestic(AG) it’s one of the top 3 holdings in the SILJ etf. It’s been underperforming vs CDE and on par with HL, but it’s supposed to be the go to name for silver miners. I think it’ll catch up. Check out the chart and put it on log scale, large triangle breakout on the all time scale For gold: Barrick(B) Everyone knows barrick, and it’s the under-performer for the majors in the gold mining sector. Check out the chart, I think it’s got a date with 50 imo. For platinum: Silbanye (SBSW) Used to be a pure platinum play, but they make money from Gold, uranium and palladium too. With platinum prices exceeding the 2021 high and the other resources also doing well, it’s safe to say this stock isn’t being taken seriously enough.
Oh man, you had **APLD** Calls before earnings today? I bet *they* popped! That was the first thing I saw on the Yahoo Finance home page this morning. I don't use margin, though I have it available on one of my accounts (\~41k). I don't see the need for it with the kinds of gains I'm getting. Have I mentioned in this thread 10.9% last week? And 8.9% the week prior. Then 5.0% and 10.2%. 8% per week on average, that's HUGE. I don't keep any cash per se, but the Model Portfolio I'm running in ToS's Paper Money (and will soon be doing with 100k of real cash whenever my rollover check makes it to Schwab) holds 20% **GLD** and 20% **TLT**. TLT is essentially a cash-equivalent, but gold to an extent also. The other (3) 20% slots will be ETFs I pick based on their momentum. Currently **MAGS, SILJ,** & **SMH**. Let me/us know how your LEAPS Calls work out!
You're really on the bleeding edge of investing, aren't you! Quantum computing and small reactors, I like it. I [plotted them together](https://imgur.com/a/o562i70), and wow! I should probably jump in that pool with you, but these kinds of high-flyers aren't my style. *"I do fine with CCs on stocks that have lower volatility, more like where NVDA is now or lower."* I thought, "NVDA, lowish volatility??" But I looked, and of course you're right: less than 50% in most expirations. My darling of the moment SILJ is running 50 to 60. Do you have a delta you like to sell at, or is it stock-dependent? And do you look at the chart before selling, looking for resistance to sell above, anything like that? *"Why not plow back your earnings into LEAPS rather than doing 100-120 DTE trades? What are the advantages for the added complexity?"* Well I thought the advantage was the extra leverage, but let me check using SILJ: LEAPS Call: 2.6x (adjusted for Delta) 133DTE Call: 4.4x The ratio of those: 4.4 / 2.6 = 70% more leverage. So yes, I'll stick with my answer: more leverage, *with house money,* not *my* money Extra complexity? If I'm taking profit out of LEAPS Calls, I'm doing that anyway. Then I have to buy *something*. Easy enough to go up and click into the \~100DTE expiration and buy the 80-delta Call there. Granted, that's one tiny extra step, because I was already in the LEAPS expiration taking profit, so I could've bought the 80-delta Call there. But I guess that extra click is worth 70% more leverage? *"It may be appealing intellectually, but from a practice standpoint, I just can't be bothered to think like that."* Probably true for most people, but I'm a numbers guy. I have a great big calculator at my desk and I'm always using it for things like this. Pick off the Extrinsic value next to a LEAPS Call I own, divide it by the DTE of that expiration, that gives me theta per day. Then go into the expiration I want to sell a Call in (usually 2+ weeks), and multiply that figure by its DTE. Scroll down the Call premiums to find where I can get at least that, then click to sell. Granted, it's not for most people. And you're right: with the returns LEAPS Calls are giving, we needn't worry about theta at all. Take care.
Right now my model portfolio holds **MAGS, SMH,** & **SILJ**. I don't know what you mean exactly by "asymmetric assets," but GLD and TLT are also in my portfolio because they're somewhat inversely-correlated to the market. For instance, today with the Big Goober dumping on China: SPY is down 1.8% GLD is up 0.7% TLT is up 1.4% It's not like that every day, but they do seem to dampen the fluctuations. And I'm selling CCs against those 2, so even on days when they're flat or down they're making at least *some* money. Let me/us know how you get on!
WOW! Your 6 LEAPS Calls went up 107% in 2 weeks??!??!!!? Imagine if you had some 100-day Calls too!!! Of course I have to know what they were on! I probably wouldn't trade them, but I can still admire them. Re-reading my comment I can see how it would come across as "CCs against LEAPS," but I really meant CCs in general (even though I don't own any stocks to sell them against). I saw on these forums in the past weeks the reminder that CCs are probably really best as an **exit strategy**. And not as some kind of "free money" on stocks/Calls you own. Because they're so much trouble to roll for just 5 or 10 dollars here and there. Which I mean, is good money for a couple minutes of your time, but I'm getting a bit overwhelmed trading 3 accounts, and soon to be a 4th, and then maybe soon trading my sister's Rollover IRA. So just in the interest of simplifying my life, I'll probably cut back on the CCs. Though I think I told you about the one guy's idea to sell them just high enough to cover the theta-per-day of the long Calls. That appeals to me because then there'd be truly no cost to using Calls over shares. And yes, ETFs don't react that rapidly. Even **SILJ**, which has been on an absolute tear (109% the past 6 months), selling at 16-delta some of them still come off at half, and some I have to roll. So that's a fair deal I think. Take care!
Hi again! Yeah, with no new money coming in you'd need to work out for yourself what that all looks like. I'll give you an idea to think about though. Last Wednesday in ToS's Paper Money side I set up what's going to be my "5 ETF LEAPS Call Portfolio" when the money I've requested as a rollover from my government TSP (like a 401k) hits my Schwab Rollover IRA account any day now. I'll just go ahead and give you all of it, since you might find it interesting. 20% in each: GLD - will probably always have a place, unless it starts going down over months. TLT - Treasuries, same as above, but it probably stays regardless of what it does. I consider this (and gold somewhat) the "cash" part of my account. MAGS SILJ SMH The last 3 came from my screening process, which I've describe elsewhere. Also the managing of those I've described elsewhere, but the idea is to ride them up until they taper off, then screen again and replace. To answer your first question: today I took some profits out of MAGS and bought some SILJ 134DTE Calls (the closest I could get to 100-120 days, without going under). How why did I choose to put the profits in SILJ and not MAGS or one of the others? I plotted them against each other and evaluated trends. SILJ was 'better' on the 1-year, 6-month, 3-month, and 1-month views. It also happened to be the highest return over each of those time periods, but that only makes up maybe half of my decision-making process. It was 'smooth,' and if you've read me for long, you know I like smooth. AND it didn't have any big drops; that might've kicked it out in favor of something without. Always just plain-old long Calls. For any others reading this (and to re-affirm it for myself), buying Calls is dead-simple. If they're deep ITM LEAPS Calls, it's almost the same as buying stocks. We all know how to buy stocks; I just use LEAPS Calls for their leverage. Don't get me wrong, I know how to do all the kinds of Spreads, and I've done them all with real money, but now I don't have to worry about: How far out? What strike for the long leg? What strike for the short leg? How is current or future IV going to affect this thing? What's the Probability of Profit? Oh, and what's the ROI? Oh right, I have to calculate the width of the spread, subtract the Debit from that, then divide that into the....what is it again? Oh never mind! Sure, Bull Call Spreads aren't THAT complicated. BUT THEY'RE NOT *INTUITIVE* EITHER. That's what I LOVE about deep ITM LEAPS Calls: once you forget that they're *options*, and really start to think of them as **stock substitutes**, they become just like buying and selling stock shares.
I check (and roll some) mostly every day, simply because I love the markets and love trading. But checking/rolling just on weekends would work too. The value gained by the long Calls will be safely locked up in them until you get around to taking it out. Like a piggy bank I guess is the way I view it. As a kid if I wanted candy one day I might shake my piggy bank, and if some coins rattled around in it, take them out and go to the corner store to buy candy cigarettes or whatever (I'm old). Next day maybe there was no money in it, but maybe overnight Mom put some change in, to stretch that metaphor beyond its breaking point. But here the 'candy' is those \~100DTE Calls, and they're nearly as addicting as cigarettes. *So I look for money to buy them whenever I can.* In fact, in my model 5-ETF portfolio just now, I took some profit out of MAGS from yesterday and used it to buy some SILJ 134DTE Calls. (And don't worry, I'm doing this with real money too: 100.9k at the close just now. But I always have 1 or 2 model portfolios going on in ToS's Paper Money, trying out new ideas, or validating this one. Like I said, I *love* trading.) But you don't have to love it that much to do this. I really think that checking positions just once a month would be fine. And once a week, certainly. If your job doesn't let you be in the market during the day, then over the weekend set up the rolls and things. Monday night, check if they went through. Adjust and try again if needed, and/or put in some Buy orders for Tuesday for those sweet super-leveraged 100-day Calls bought with profits. And don't worry about getting 'best' fills or whatever. This is long-term stuff, so a penny or three 'lost' on a fill isn't going to matter in a week or a month. If it's AH and I'm setting up orders for tomorrow I let ToS give me the Midpoint fill price, then I come down/up from that a few cents or even a nickel. Then it'll almost for sure fill at the open. Oh, and what if the ticker is down at the open? It's been my experience that Schwab won't screw you; you'll still get "best fill" at the time. Which brings me to your question about IV: I don't worry about it. Should I? Maybe. But I made (in real money accounts) 10.9% last week, 8.9 the week prior, 5.0 before that, then 10.2, 3.3, 3.6, etc. Is a 'better' roll at some 'better' IV point going to make that much difference to the bottom line? I tend to think not, but try it both ways and see. Sorry this got long, but I talk to myself in these replies as much as to you guys, as it helps me codify my thinking. Plus I keep threatening to write a book someday, and that would mostly be cobbled together from these rambling missives. Take care.
Jumping in here because I've been watching your comments and I am interested in exploring further. Your B/E is at $27.11 on this, so would need a 42% gain in SILJ to B/E at expiration. Instead though, you manage it and take some profits if SILJ continues its upward move I assume. How do you determine when to STC? With short Puts, I target 50% profit. Is there a sweet spot you use for the Leaps?
I don't mind posting them in the open, because I know they're solid selections. But rather than giving you a fish, I'd rather teach you *how* to fish. I made this little [screen capture video](https://imgur.com/a/barchart-etf-screening-VbwTWxy) last week for someone to show how I screen on Barchart. You'd probably need to pay for BC Premium to be able to do some of the things, but this gives you an idea. *Especially* pay attention when I start showing what a 'good' chart looks like. There's no audio, just follow the cursor. **Here are the generic steps:** Open ETF Screener. Unselect all the leveraged ones (but leave the -1/Inverse box checked). Add just 1 screening criteria: Has Options (that pretty much takes care of Volume) Hit 'Add' so that moves down to the screening pane, then click See Results. Sort by 3-month performance. We want to know what's doing well *right now.* Now *THE* MOST IMPORTANT PART: click on "**flipcharts**" and start looking through charts. (Change to Line, and keep the view at 6 months.) Find ones that are up and **smooth**. Don't worry about what the ETF is or anything else, just the price action: up and SMOOTH. Then pick 5 or so that aren't closely correlated. (Like I wouldn't pick gold *and* the gold miners. And I wouldn't pick 2 China ones if those screened in.) Then go buy LEAPS Calls on them and get rich. Here are the 5 I put in my model portfolio last Wednesday: **GLD** \- gold is probably always going to have a place **TLT** \- and Treasuries will probably also have a place **MAGS** **SMH** **SILJ** Granted, silver and gold are somewhat correlated, but one is the gold metal, while the other is silver *miners*. It's okay for me, but might not be for you. Let's see what those look like on a [6-month chart.](https://imgur.com/a/a2I4lFX) Pretty good, right? TLT is flat, but that's okay; it's there to be the 'cash' part of the portfolio. Plus I'm making north of 30% apy selling CCs against it. GLD is similar, meant to be 'cash' and/or a hedge against inflation. But 36% in 6 months is a great return. And the others? *138% in 6 months?* Have you ever heard of such a thing from an ETF? But they're out there. Catch the wave and ride it up, that's the idea. But you have to monitor, and cut them when they roll over. Don't ride them back down. In other words, don't buy and *hold*. Buy and *monitor*. Step off one escalator onto the next one. And note that I didn't pick any of those 3 because they were up the *most*. I picked them because their charts were *smooth*. Up, sure, but smooth is more important. So there you go, now go forth and prosper!
Yeah, my rule for myself is that new money, 'my' money only goes into LEAPS Calls. But profits on those, 'house' money, can go into 100-120DTE Calls. I can't tell you how incredible those have been in SILJ the last few weeks. *Oui, cher!*
gold is still underpriced, and silver is severely underpriced compared to gold. gold miners are underpriced compared to gold, and junior gold miners underpriced compared to gold miners. silver miners are underpriced compared to silver, and junior silver miners...well they're just watching and waiting to play seven levels of shrek cock to catch up. more SILJ and more GDXJ and JNUG
Not 100x, but 3-5x, sometimes more, and that's plenty. Find an ETF that's trending up smoothly (take a look at **SILJ**), and an 80-delta LEAPS Call becomes quite sporty! And here's how I calculate leverage (no one's ever told me it's wrong): Stock price divided by Call price, all times Delta So: Delta x (Spot / Call price) So for instance, my darling **SILJ**: Spot is **24.84**. The 19-strike Call at 464DTE and 83-delta (there wasn't a Delta of 80, 81, or 82) costs **8.10** 0.83 x (24.84 / 8.10) = 2.5x leverage to shares I'd forgotten it's so low for SILJ; it's because its IV is high. But do that for GLD and you get 5.2x. Fun stuff. But anyway, let me know when you start trying it. There's some different ways you can manage (or not) the LEAPS Calls that you might be interested in. Would you be doing this in a tax-deferred account?
Yes, because ETFs are much safer than stocks, because they're not subject to "single-issue/ticker risk." What happens when Elon tweets something dumb? TSLA goes down 10%. What happens when Oracle doesn't beat earnings? Drops 15%, maybe. An ETF, as you probably know, is a basket of stocks. SILJ that I used there is a basket of "junior" silver miners. It holds about 58 different companies. Let's say you like a particular silver miner, Hecla, which is pretty popular. You put all your money into it. All in, one big bet. I'll put all *my* in the ETF. Then let's say tomorrow HL goes bankrupt. Whoops! You lost all your money. While the ETF might lose just a few percent, because Hecla was just one of its many holdings.
As u/Playful-Emu8757 said: please elaborate! 78-delta, huh? That would be easy to implement on many of the things I trade, like GLD, SILJ, and XME, which have close enough strikes that I could pick a 78-delta Call over an 80-delta. And sell when they've made 250%?
Hi, thanks for saying that! Yeah, kind of arbitrary, but there's definitely a balance involved. A balance to being too close to the money, where a smallish dip in the underlying will affect the value of the Call too much, and far enough ITM that you're not paying too much for time/theta. I wrote this up for someone else in this thread today, but can't find a way to point you to that reply, so I'll just copy it here. The question was: "Why 80-delta and not just-OTM?" \------------------ Because it's better. And safer. And because it's the [generally accepted practice.](https://www.google.com/search?q=what+delta+should+you+buy+LEAPS+Calls+at&rlz=1C1RXQR_enUS1137US1137&oq=what+delta+should+you+buy+LEAPS+Calls+at&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIHCAEQIRigATIHCAIQIRigATIHCAMQIRigATIHCAQQIRigATIHCAUQIRirAjIHCAYQIRirAjIHCAcQIRiPAjIHCAgQIRiPAtIBCTEwMjIyajBqOagCALACAQ&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8) Don't get me wrong, LOTS of things work with options, but it's a matter of balancing returns with probabilities of profit and loss. Say you buy the 465DTE SILJ Call that's just OTM, the **24-strike** (with spot at 23.31). It costs **5.15** right now. What's the Break Even Price on that? It's the strike plus what you paid: 24 + 5.15 = **29.15** Now a few things can happen: SILJ can stay flat for the next 465 days and you lose the whole 5.15. Gone. Or SILJ can go down; same outcome. Or SILJ can up 21% from here, and.......congratulations: *you exactly broke even.* Or SILJ can go up by its Expected Move, reported as $8.20 by ThinkorSwim. And if that happens, the just-OTM Call would be worth: (23.31 + 8.20) - 24 = 7.51 Making its ROI: 7.51 / 5.15 = **46%**. Not bad. But now let's do all that for the **80-delta Call**, the 15Jan27 **18C** that costs **8.65**. Sure, that's a lot more than the **5.15** of the OTM Call, but let's see what happens. B/E is **26.65**. Say SILJ stays flat. What do you lose? You lose the 3.24 of time/*extrinsic* premium you paid for as part of the Call's price. So you lose 3.24 out of 8.65, 37%. Remember that you lost the *whole 5.15* in the OTM case. SILJ can go down, and you'll lose some; or maybe all, as before. But it would have to drop 23% before you lost it all. Or SILJ could go UP to the B/E of the first Call: 29.15. What would this Call be worth then? That number minus the strike: 29.15 - 18 = 11.15. And what did we pay for it? 8.65 Making the ROI: 11.15 / 8.65 = 29% Let that sink in for a minute: in the case where the OTM Call *barely broke even*, the ITM Call makes 29%.
Great observation about extrinsic value costing less and less as you go out in time. I think Yuen says that too. And it makes perfect sense, but I think I've just become too addicted to the leverage at the 1-year mark. Going out further dilutes that a good bit. Though maybe I should adopt your habit of looking for just 2.5-3 times leverage and be happy with that. Because that's PLENTY on something like SILJ that's doing 20% a month. I do think about the theta in those 1y Calls though, and that's part of why I sell CCs, to cover that expense. And I'm familiar with all the theories and back-testing about CCs, but I still can't wean myself from them. A couple observations though: I'm not doing Tech like Yuen does. I'm using ETFs, which typically don't 'rip'. (But GLD and SILJ are pretty sporty!) And I'd argue that one 'ripper', or MANY rippers, doesn't destroy past gains. It CAPS gains on the long leg of that ticker (shares or Calls), I'll give you that, but I guess in my mind I keep that separate from the CC trades that went before. And I still made a bunch of money on the stock or ETF if it blew past my 16-delta short Call, it's just that I could've made more *on that ticker* if the CC wasn't there. Take care.
Thank you! For closing the short Calls, the standard Buy To Close when they've lost half their value. But even though I'm selling GLD & SILJ and similar at 16-delta, they're quite often getting run over. So those I roll when they hit 30-delta or so. And if I've rolled them out to about 60 days and they're above 20-delta, then I just buy them back and sell fresh ones. Does that answer your question?
Because it's better. And safer. And because it's the [generally accepted practice.](https://www.google.com/search?q=what+delta+should+you+buy+LEAPS+Calls+at&rlz=1C1RXQR_enUS1137US1137&oq=what+delta+should+you+buy+LEAPS+Calls+at&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIHCAEQIRigATIHCAIQIRigATIHCAMQIRigATIHCAQQIRigATIHCAUQIRirAjIHCAYQIRirAjIHCAcQIRiPAjIHCAgQIRiPAtIBCTEwMjIyajBqOagCALACAQ&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8) Don't get me wrong, LOTS of things work with options, but it's a matter of balancing returns with probabilities of profit and loss. Say you buy the 465DTE SILJ Call that's just OTM, the **24-strike** (with spot at 23.31). It costs **5.15** right now. What's the Break Even Price on that? It's the strike plus what you paid: 24 + 5.15 = **29.15** Now a few things can happen: SILJ can stay flat for the next 465 days and you lose the whole 5.15. Gone. Or SILJ can go down; same outcome. Or SILJ can up 21% from here, and.......congratulations: *you exactly broke even.* Or SILJ can go up by its Expected Move, reported as $8.20 by ThinkorSwim. And if that happens, the just-OTM Call would be worth: (23.31 + 8.20) - 24 = 7.51 Making its ROI: 7.51 / 5.15 = **46%**. Not bad. But now let's do all that for the **80-delta Call**, the 15Jan27 **18C** that costs **8.65**. Sure, that's a lot more than the **5.15** of the OTM Call, but let's see what happens. B/E is **26.65**. Say SILJ stays flat. What do you lose? You lose the 3.24 of time/*extrinsic* premium you paid for as part of the Call's price. So you lose 3.24 out of 8.65, 37%. Remember that you lost the *whole 5.15* in the OTM case. SILJ can go down, and you'll lose some; or maybe all, as before. But it would have to drop 23% before you lost it all. Or SILJ could go UP to the B/E of the first Call: 29.15. What would this Call be worth then? That number minus the strike: 29.15 - 18 = 11.15. And what did we pay for it? 8.65 Making the ROI: 11.15 / 8.65 = 29% Let that sink in for a minute: in the case where the OTM Call *barely broke even*, the ITM Call makes 29%. But now let SILJ go to the EM point, 23.31 + 8.20 = 31.51 Making the 18C worth: 31.51 - 18.00 = 13.51 ROI: 13.51 / 8.65 = **56%** ***That beats the EM case for the OTM Call.*** So in every reasonable scenario, the ITM Call does better than the OTM. And sure, SILJ *could* exceed its EM, but the probabilities say it won't. And options are all a probabilities game, so put them on your side: **Buy Calls at 80-delta and don't think about it anymore.**
Whew, lots of "portfolio management" questions in there! Let me start by giving you my mindset. I don't do "allocations" like a lot of people do. So much in Large Cap, Small Cap, Growth, Treasuries, Gold, Cash, etc. And I don't try to predict what should do well. I only react to price information. And I don't think on a 30-year timeline. 6 months is a long time for me. I don't do individual stocks anymore, only ETFs. I hope those statements 'answer' some of your questions. But here's what I do. And I'll be doing it and journaling it here with 100k if the check from the government's stupid Thrift Savings Plan people ever makes it into my Rollover IRA at Schwab. I'd hoped that was going to be last week, but it still hasn't posted. 5 ETFs. 20% into each. GLD will probably always be one of them. As will TLT. Then pick 3 more based on recent peformance. Those I find using Barchart's ETF Screener, with these parameters: Has Options, no 2x or 3x stuff; but -1 is okay. And that's it. "Has Options" satisfies any Volume criterion I might apply. Sort those by 3-month performance. **Then look at their charts.** On a 6-month or 1-year view. That's the key right there: ***look at charts.*** Because [momentum persists](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927538X18303998?via%3Dihub#preview-section-references). Find it. Jump on it. Get off when it starts to slow down. If you've been too indoctrinated by the financial press to see that, grab a handy 5th-grader and have him/her tell you which charts are going up, and which are going down. It's really that simple. And you're not just looking for UP, but SMOOTH. Barchart just now found 1,273 ETFs with options that are 1x or -1x. I sorted by 3-month performance. WEED was #1, with a whopping 141% gain over the past 3 months. But about 20 down the list, SILJ has a much nicer/smoother chart. [Here they are plotted together over 6 months. ](https://imgur.com/a/cC3agLs) (And remember: it's the 6m view I look at, even though I sort by 3m.) ***Which ride would you rather be on?*** If you can't tell, ask your 5th-grader. So that's what I do. Pick like that initially, buy LEAPS Calls, then monitor. If one starts slowing down, I don't cut it until it's below where it was a month ago. When I need to cut a loser, I scan again for a replacement. Let winners run as long as they want to. And sell CCs along the way on everything.
For the most part not true. Have you ever traded anything with a wide B/A spread (and what's "wide" in your opinion)? What happens? The Market Maker steps in and makes a market at Midpoint. Or close to it. And Midpoint is Midpoint whether the spread is 2-cents wide or 50. And do you even know what the spreads are on these ETFs that trade millions of shares a day? (GLD, IAU, GDX, GDXJ, SLV, SIL, SILJ, XME) And so what if pay a nickel more for a LEAPS Call than I "should" have: do you have any practical knowledge of the leverage these things give you? On GLD it's 5.9 times after adjusting for Delta (the 466DTE 80-delta 340C). Let GLD move up just a penny and already the option has made that nickel back. Apologies for coming down so hard on your flippant remark, but I want others who might read it to know the real story. Tomorrow when the market is open I'll do some trades and post what my fills are and what the spreads are. RemindMe! 1 day
Ohmygosh, 80-delta LEAPS are the best! What's even better: when I take profit out of them (by rolling them UP, back to 80-delta) I use that money to buy 80-delta Calls just 100-120 days out. Talk about leverage! My GLD and SILJ positions have been absolutely *killing* it.
I don't like the look of Amazon's chart, so I wouldn't be an investor right now. But in general about your Call purchase idea: You're looking at 20March, 165 days out, which I can get behind (a year is better, but 100DTE minimum). You're looking just ATM, which isn't generally recommended. The common recomendation is 80-delta. And the reason is, at the 220-strike, the 21.72 you'd be paying for that option is ALL time value. Time value that will go away over the 165-day life of the option. Divide to get: 21.72 / 165 = 0.13 That's 13 DOLLARS PER DAY you'd lose to time value. But move up to the 185C at 80-delta and the extrinsic value is less than half that, 10.48. What you're doing is paying for equity in the stock at that point. It's a safer play. Still not one I'd do on Amazon at this point, but take a look at GLD and SILJ. Or if you've got to have your Mag7, then MAGS.
please for the love of god buy SILJ calls and thank me later
I wouldn't wait for any kind of pullback. What does a "pullback" look like, anyway? 5%? 10%? More? In the meantime, you could've been making money. At the *very* most, I might wait for a down day on the ETF before buying LEAPS Calls on it. A single down day. But I don't often do even that. Because I'm a momentum trader: "buy high and sell higher," "ride the wave," whatever you want to call it. If you pick a good underlying ETF that's going up smoothly (check out SILJ), then I don't think it much matters when you enter the trade. And you don't have to do PMCCs, but selling the Calls is fun for me. And yeah, look at selling CCs on ETFs you own. Take care.
Let me lay out for you what I do. This'll be long, so grab a Coke or something. Use [Barchart to screen ](https://imgur.com/a/barchart-etf-screening-VbwTWxy)for good-performing ETFs. That's a short video I'd put together on how I do it. I sort them by 3-month performance, but look at 6-month charts. You want 'up' of course, but 'smooth' mainly. Just look at the charts, and don't overthink it. [Momentum persists](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927538X18303998?via%3Dihub#preview-section-references), and this way works as well as any other. Pick 5 for some diversity. Then buy Calls: 80-delta minimum, ALWAYS. A year out is best, but 100-120 days is okay. Divide up your money into 5 chunks and buy that many Calls of each. If you want (I do), sell Calls against them. Not exactly "Covered Calls," but they behave exactly the same. I'm just looking for a little extra "juice," so I sell them at 16-delta, which is the 1SD point, or the Expected Move. And you're 'supposed' to sell those 30-45DTE, but at the very least, lean hard on the 30 days. I do 2 weeks. Buy the short Calls back when they've lost half their value. Sell some more. Many ways to handle the long Calls, but this is what I do: When they appreciate, their Delta goes up. As soon as the strike below them (a higher strike) gets to 80-delta, I sell the current Call and buy that new one: I've rolled UP. That takes profit out of the Call. When you have enough of that profit as cash, buy another Call (then of course sell another 'CC'). You don't *have* to do that, but it puts that profit to work in new positions, rather than leaving it locked up in the old Calls. When time passes and the original Calls get inside 1 year (or 100DTE), then wait till there's enough profit in them to roll them OUT in time, back to 80-delta in whatever timeframe you're working in. Here's a nuance: Only buy LEAPS Calls, those that are a year out or more. Take profit out of them as before. But *now* when you have enough profit, buy a 100-120DTE Call. 100-120DTE isn't as safe as 1 year, but what you're doing now is using *house money* to play those. Your main investment stays in the 80-delta LEAPS Calls, but your "play money" is in the closer-in-time, riskier Calls. Try it with GLD (or IAU) and/or SILJ, or the precious metals ETF XME. You'll be amazed at the returns if current trends hold.
When shit hits the fan VIX will go from $15 to over $25 within hours. Everyone knows that it’s just a matter of time until it crashes and crashes hard. Most of my money is in GLD GLX GLXJ SIL and SILJ, 600 shares of QDTE and $75,000 in cash.
Still up 25% on the SILJ leaps I bought last week. Y’all operate in ADHD time frames. You really think this administration will curb inflation? LMAO 🤌
Don’t get into it unless you can learn the basics, You should get SILJ or SLVR. I mean m.. I am 18 and I simply spent an hour or so a day researching for the last few months. My port is up 15% in the last month. If you spend a lot of time scrolling just dedicate this time to reading about terms and what stocks are and etfs and what broker to use. It is not that hard as long as you are willing to spend time on it.
yep, i bought 3000 shares of BTG at $2.80, bought GDX at $50, FSM at $4.50, SILJ at $13. i regret not buying KGC at 4.00 back in feb 2024. i bought losing investments and trades instead at the time.
SILJ options would be the more regarded bullish way
A lesson I've had to continually re-learn over the years is that ETFs are better than equities. Based on your mix, I think you may know that too. But there's still something about those high-flying tickers that draws us to them like a moth to a flame. But I'm done with them for good this time. Too much"single-issue" risk. A missed earnings, an accounting scandal, an ill-timed tweet by the CEO: the stock drops 10% or more. With "basket of stocks" ETFs, you don't have that single-ticker exposure. Because of course a single company might only be 5 or 10% of the ETF. Now, you can have "systemic" risk that affects everything in the ETF, and that's why I avoid the ones that are particularly vulnerable to that: like cannabis and crypto. **With the leverage of LEAPS Calls** *we don't need ETFs to go up much before we're making a great profit.* Right now I've been loving the precious metals and their miners: GLD, GDX/J, SLV, SILJ, XME - there are others. Then SMH, MAGS (there's your Mag7 exposure), IGV, & IWM. IWM is actually a great example of what I look for in a chart: see how smooth it is? Up 20% in the last 6 months, and 2.7% in the last month. Its 444DTE 200C at 81-delta is giving Delta-adjusted leverage of 3.5x. So you take that 2.7% and multiply it by 3.5 to get *9% in the next month* if the trend holds. That's 'enough' return, isn't it? That's why I like ETFs. Take care.
Yeah both SILJ and GDX have more than doubled but if silver runs hard the SILJ upside is greater. Insanely volatile so only calls and only money you don't care losing :)
If you think GDX is too boring for your full regard calls, may I introduce you to SILJ - the silver junior miner etf. If gold manages to finally shake up silver, this bad boy will moon.
Great, I'm glad you liked what you saw. And I meant to come back around and say that CSPs probably aren't what one would want to be doing against ETFs, even like these ones. But let me check before making that assumption: 30-delta at 30 days, can we agree on that as kind of a standard? Then SILJ pays pays 1.7% on its 27-delta 31DTE (from tomorrow) 31Oct25C. Apy that to about 20%. That's a serious yearly return for most investors. MAGS is doing 16%. And SMH 17%. But no, I play them with the leverage of long Calls. A year out, 80-delta. *This might change the way you invest, so read on at your own peril!* I'll use SMH because it has the tightest B/A spreads here AH. The 445DTE 18Dec260C at 81-delta is going for **89.60** at Midpoint. Spot is **322.66**. That means that instead of paying $32,266 for 100 shares, you can 'control' 100 shares for only $8,960. Divide to find that you can control 3.6 times as many shares for the same amount of money. But then the option only increases at 81% of the rate of shares, so multiply that by 0.81 to find that *you're getting 2.9x leverage to SMH.* And here's the fun part: you get to multiply that by whatever SMH does over the next week or month or whatever. SMH has done 11% over the last month. If [momentum persists](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927538X18303998?via%3Dihub#preview-section-references) and it does that *next* month, how does 32% in one month sound? So yeah, look into 80-delta LEAPS Calls as *stock substitutes.*
Not *technical* indicators per se, but I chose to respond when I saw you look for an up-trending 5y chart. Because that's what I do too: look at charts and say, "This thing is going up, let me do something with it." Only I don't look at 5 years, or even 1 year. *I sort by 3-month,* but *look* at 6-month charts. And then I don't look at anything else. (Only that they have options.) I just did that exercise over the weekend and picked **SILJ, SMH,** & **MAGS.** Look at their charts and ***note how smooth they are.*** Compare to MSOS & ETH, for example. Sure, those have gone up more than my 3, but do you think you could reliably write CSPs against those? You can use Barchart's ETF screener to find ETFs like I do. I made this little [Snipping Tool video tutorial ](https://imgur.com/a/barchart-etf-screening-VbwTWxy)the other day to show someone how. Cheers.
GDX GDXJ SIL SILJ are just guarunteed daily gains
I doubt metals would get crushed 9 months running from Q4 this year all the way to end of H1 next year. I think (just a hunch) metals put in a top here in the first weeks of October and chop sideways until year end where GDX finishes YTD something like close to 100% and silver finishes the year up something like 50% or 40%. But silver trades 23 hours a day. Silver deficit is 200 million ounces per year. The top 10 silver stocks in SILJ annual production is 100 million ounces combined. The silver annual deficit consumes all production from most of the SILJ components inside the first six months of any given year. You can't print silver. I'm curious to see how the metals and mining stocks react when retail starts buying coins and bars online and at coin shops. It wont be more than a few weeks before sold out signs are everywhere and you can't find silver anywhere. Disclaimer I'm a perma bull That's how I see it.
Good question. If I had no position and had to build one from scratch starting today how would I do it? I would buy in the money calls in GDX JAN2027. GDX should be sheltered most from a silver raid because it is so heavily weighted to large cap senior miners and has a lot less to do with silver. If the trade goes against you after entry that in the money strike is now an out of the money strike. I'd add to it. I'd also open up a new position in an in the money strike (post raid). Repeat this process to the other symbols. And be patient. Add a little each week over the rest of Q4. Don't take big bites. If you go hard you can't defend your cost basis and you can't average down in the event it goes against you. We could go parabolic from here but the GDX is up like 120% YTD and Silver is up almost 60% YTD. I can tell you in 2023 and 2024 both times October and November and December gold and silver got clobbered. I think it was to destroy the JAN strike stacks in the mining sector. I don't see The Cabal just letting silver and gold rip unchallenged. I expect raids, margin increases for futures contracts, profit taking by longs all of this at an opportune time like when China will conveniently be on week long holiday and not pumping metals in the US overnight session. If I'm wrong and it just rips faces off without pulling back then the individual is going to have to decide to fomo in or sit it out. Another idea would be to have only SILJ call options and shares of BKRRF or some other strong junior. There is a lot of overlap between the ETFs. If you own SILJ you already own CDE, PAAS, AG, EXK by proxy. They are healthy weighted components. The time to have been getting in was a year ago when I was trying to get you guys excited about this. This has the potential to turn into a long lived bubble that ends in a panic mania. Silver ratio still extremely high. WSB still deleting my posts (I posted this exact yolo there, insta delete). No one is looking at the metals yet and fewer are looking at mining stocks. I just don't know if there will be pain and if so how long is it going to last and how painful is it going to be. All I know is this is sustainable. The hardest thing to do is sit in a speculation and do nothing, just wait, years need be. Trading in and out is a fools errand I already left massive sums on the table selling earlier in the summer to reposition into deeper expirations. I've been selling JAN2026 calls (that Ive been sitting in for a year or more) and using the proceeds to buy and build JAN2027 calls. I have done very well but I wonder if it would have been the same results if I had not sold a single position all year up until today. If in H1 2026 this sector is under attack I still have at least half a year to average in and managed unrealized losing positions. Just speaking for myself you guys are going to have to take the appropriate risk/reward positions that you can live with.
SLV PAAS SILJ Take your pick. GLD HL GDX
"Supernaturally indifferent," I loved that! You didn't know that some tickers had only Monthlies, is that it? I think that's the norm for most ETFs, and probably stocks too. 4%/month rolling EWTX out isn't bad at all: 48% apy or thereabouts. Plus the stock is trying to go up, it looks like. MSOS: I see it near the top of the list when I screen ETFs on 3-month performance (along with crypto stuff), but it's a little too choppy for me. Plus I've traded it before and been burned when it dropped because some legislation didn't pass or something. In fact, I see it's in a month-long downtrend now; did something like that happen? It does have some juicy premiums though. Give me GLD's steady rise, and the fact that it doesn't drop quickly. Or the miners: GDX & GDXJ. Also silver miners: SIL & SILJ Steadily up with very few and small hiccups. *Wrote your own app!* Beyond my skill level, but that's really awesome! Take care.
You're welcome. As for "buying the dip," I don't. One probably should, but I don't have the patience for it. And what's a "dip"? 1 day? 3 days? A week, a month? If you want, wait for a single down day and buy in then, it should make the LEAPS Calls a bit cheaper. You asked about risk: do you buy stocks now? If not, you should start there before buying any Calls. But a 'long' Call (one you've bought) is like being long stock: you're exposed to the stock's ups and downs. And that gets amplified when you own Calls. Fun when the stock goes up, not so much when it goes down. So that's the risk: that the stock goes down. ETFs are safer than individual stocks in that regard, so that's why I trade them. When you buy stocks, do you have a "stop-loss" point? A percent-down where you sell the stock because it's not doing what you thought? Same with long Calls. I generally use half: when the Call you've bought loses half its value, sell it. But with gold ETFs (GLD, GDX, IAU, and even silver, I like SILJ) I don't think you have to worry about them going down in today's environment. So go ahead and buy one and watch it just once a day, or once a week. As the underlying ticker goes up, the Call will go up by that leverage factor I showed. Then you simply hold it until and unless its price goes down by whatever you set for yourself as a stop-loss point. Take care.
I've been loving gold since March, so I'm in **GDX, GLD, IAU,** and also **SILJ** and **XME**. In fact, I just calculated this evening, and 87% of my holdings (nearly 90k) are in precious metals. So yeah, if you like the price action, then just buy some LEAPS Calls and hold on for the ride. u/sam99871 said 90-delta, and that's fine, but I think most would say 80-delta. That's what I use anyway, and **never less.** Because that's plenty of leverage. And that leverage cuts both ways, always remember that. Have you bought LEAPS Calls before? Do you want to buy them for the LTCG tax treatment? Either way, go out to the 448DTE Dec '26 expiration and grab the 60C at 80-delta for **21.10**. Or slide up to 90-delta and take the 51C for **27.75**. Not a lot more, and a good bit safer. Do you know how to calculate the leverage these long Calls give you? (Spot / Call price) x Delta (74.68 / 21.10) x 0.80 = 2.8 The Call will appreciate 2.8 times as fast as the shares. And with GDX doing 21% in the past month, that could translate into 58% if it does it for the *next* month. Pretty stout.
You've got 'em! And while I have your ear: don't think of 'options' as something you 'do'. There's some of that, to be sure, but if you'll focus on **buying Call options instead of shares**, you'll enjoy 2 to 5 times leverage to the underlying. So pick an ETF that looks like it's going up fairly smoothly (GLD and SILJ right now, plus some others), and invest in it with long Calls. Then watch how fast they appreciate if you get the direction right. Have fun!
Today I made this little [Snipping Tool video](https://imgur.com/3PfqVe4) that shows how I screen ETFs on Barchart. I start with all non-leveraged ETFs (but keep the -1 or Short ones), then add a "Has Options" filter. After that, sort by 3-month performance, then start looking at charts. The video show 3 charts I like: REMX, CNXT, & SILJ I'd appreciate if you could try that on Barchart and see if you can do what I did there. I pay them for some extra features, so I'm not sure what a free account can see or do.
Just got some SILJ leaps for the added juice
SILJ call market makers are smoking tar these bid/ask spreads are absurd
So SILJ prob the best pick then?
Go for an index. SILJ is the most behind of the big 4 miner index (gdx, gdxj, sil, silj) and gives you the most alpha I think. I also love copper miners for a can’t lose long term position (copx). Also look into energy stocks (oil, natural gas, coal, uranium). For oil I love CNQ. Awesome business with huge dividends, well run, money printer atm basically. Nat gas, I like anterro and range recources. Coal I love the upside for CNR, it looks to have bottomed and is reversing with lots of upside. URA/URNJ for uranium. These all tend to perform very well after gold leads a move up and they’re all very beaten down right now besides uranium which has been flying with the metals.
URA SILJ PALL PPLT OIH XOP GDX MOO REMX, I’m mostly invested in smaller mining companies that are undervalued…but these are some broad plays that I think have a lot of upside potential over the medium to long term
Mixed, the GLD calls are 350-10/31, SLV is 60-1/15/27, SILJ is 22-1/16/26, GDX is 75-1/26/26
How much longer do I ride these GLD, SLV, GDX and SILJ calls?
I’m glad I gave you something to think about. Hopefully I can stop thinking about it and fall asleep tonight. Gold has gone up in recent years totally uncorrelated to the stock market. It is now a safe haven and out-performer — although most media isn’t talking about it. Saying it only performs during crashes is not consistent with your recognizing its performance in recent years. But I get that it really shines at those scary moments. I would also encourage you to look at the miners (eg. GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SILJ, etc). They are highly undervalued and printing cash. Gold’s performance of late should make any prudent investor want to carefully consider it. It certainly has impressed Mike Wallace, CIO of Morgan Stanley, and the biggest bond salesman of all, Jeff Gundlach. Commodity bull cycles happen.
I would sell and put in SIL or SILJ.
Buy silver miners PAAS and CDE also go big on the ETF SIL and SILJ.... your still early id buy some now then some at a pull back. Gold and silver will run hot through next year I see a triple digit silver coming early next year is about to go parabolic as people start the fomo trade soon
I've gotten to finally (hopefully for the last time!) where I only trade ETFs. So start there: ETFs. And don't worry, there's enough performance/return/juice in the ones I'm going to show you how to find that even a person who just buys *shares* would be delighted. I use Barchart for my simple scanning. It's generally free, but there's a step in here that you might need to sign up for a free acct for, or that you might actually need to pay for their base plan. Across the top, click "ETFs." In the pulldown, left side middle, click "ETF Screener." Three rows down, "ETF Leverage," UN-select all but Long and short. No leveraged ETFs, but inverse ones (if they're only -1x) are okay). Next row, "Add a Filter," add these two: \- Has Options \- Volume >1,000,000 (This may be the part where you have to have an account, free or paid; I don't know, because I pay them.) Note that after finding and clicking each one, you have to click 'Add' to shove it down below the "See Results" button. For Options, leave empty the "Only those with weeklies" button. Or you can add it. For Volume, it should default to "Greater Than." Type in 1,000,000. Feel free to lower that number, there's nothing magic about it. Now hit "See Results." I get 153 hits just now. Two rows under that: "Load a Screener," pick "Performance." In the table header, click "3M %Chg" to sort descending, most to least. Now look at that column: did you ever in your wildest dreams think there was a non-leveraged ETF doing 98% per quarter? Heck, even leveraged! No, you probably didn't. I didn't. And 77 & 75% for 2 Ethereum funds. But those kinds of things are volatile and spikey and I don't like them. But look at SILJ about 4 rows down: 35% over this past quarter. Is that 'enough'? I think it is. And more importantly, do you think it might continue to do that for another month or three? I do, and this is why: [Momentum in equities persists](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927538X18303998?via%3Dihub#preview-section-references). Skim through that "synthesis of the literature" to see study after study that has proven it. Okay, so you could go right down the "3m %Chg" column and buy a few and probably do fine. But I like to look for smooth upward price action. And **here's the very best part of Barchart** in my opinion: Upper right of the table, click on **flipcharts**. And now you're looking at a collection of all the symbols you just scanned and sorted; see them across the top? Upper right, change Template to Line. Towards the left, leave the timeframe at 6M. Though you can change to 1Y, which I often do, but the Liberation Day trough disrupts what you're seeing.
Super excited for metals and miners. They are back in style. GDX SILJ SLV GLD PAAS
I've been long **GLD** LEAPS since March 5th. Such a beautiful chart for the prior 18 months. Then April and the doldrums. But I held through, steadily selling CCs, so I'm glad for the breakout. I'm also in **GDX, IAU,** and **SAND.** That's all for gold, but for silver I'm in **SILJ**. And for general metals, **XME** and **WPM**. This precious metals run has a while to go in my opinion.
I second **GDX** and **XME**. **XLU** has been good to me, but this little dip lately hasn't been fun. Mostly I wanted to second this: >I use LEAPS to add leverage to...ETFs. ETFs often get overlooked, but many of them actually have great returns: **GDX** 106% ytd, **XME** 52% And some don't: **XLU** 13% ytd But add the leverage of LEAPS Calls and watch out! For **XLU** you get 5.3 times leverage, adjusted for delta. So that ho-hum 13% becomes 68%, which is more than solid. Then sell low-delta Calls against them if you like, for a little extra juice. ETFS are quite a bit safer than individual stocks, because they don't have "single-issue risk." I use Barchart's ETF screener on 3-month performance (Has Options, Volume >1M shares), then look at their charts till I find **smooth** ones. Going up, of course, but 'smooth' takes precedence over return. Some others I like right now: **SIL/SILJ, MAGS, MCHI, XLC**
GDXJ, SILJ, SRUUF. Moved deeper in harder commodities. Also started natgas and oil long positions.
GDXJ, SILJ, SRUUF. Deep in harder commodities. Also starting natgas and oil long positions
Firstly, don't screen for *options*, screen for good **underlyings** first. Then Barchart (free) is good for that. ETFs are much safer than individual stocks, so I'd rather see you searching there. And don't worry, when you play ETFs with options, you'll get PLENTY of ROI. At Barchart: Across the top, click on ETFs. In the pulldown, left column, halfway down, click ETF Screener. DE-SELECT the Double-Long, Triple-Long, Double-Short, and Triple-Short. Leave Short checked. "Add a Filter" row: "Has Options" "Volume >1,000,000." Click "See Results." Change from "Filter View" to "Performance." Sort by "3M %Chg." Click the "flipcharts" button at the top right of the list. Set Chart Type to Line. At the left, leave the timeframe pulldown at "6M." Then skim through all the charts and find ones that are going up kind of smoothly. Don't look at the names, just the price action. (Because your love of crypto or whatever could influence your choices.) Ones that I think are subjectively "good": SIL/SILJ, XME, maybe GDX/GDXJ, MAGS I have real money in all those, playing them with options. Have fun!
GDXJ SILJ invest your money, protect your wealth…the commodity supercycle is here
GDXJ SILJ and chill, generational wealth will be made in this commodity supercycle