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Latest from Nomura/McElligott on Flows -> Macro/Micro, Broad exposures, CTAs, Vol & Skew
Nomura/McElligott Cross Asset Vol Note - From Macro to Micro, Inconvenient Truths Ahead (CTA, Vol/Skew) Jan13th
Underrated Opportunity - BigCommerce (BIGC) Squeeze
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Interesting approach. Did you say that this isn't a foolproof approach cause offensive sleeve is long only? Curious to know aspect of my post made go like...."hmm this ain't foolproof" I can appreciate those who short and pull it off but at this stage it just isn't a part of my arsenal. I would include an etf such as CAOS (TAIL if I knew a tactical signal which I don't) under my diversifer sleeve but that's it. I appreciate your insight and it seems like you've stuck to something that works but I can't put my finger on it. Likely cause I don't wanna introduce shorts at least for now & would focus only only long + AA (+/- 15% shift)
PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, DO NOT TAIL MY PLAYS YOU WILL GET RKT. Glad you bought VOO 😅 saved yourself lots of pain
I used to tolerate TQQQ. Too volatile for me these days, now I'm focused on hedging a leveraged position. This app is helpful at getting the balance just right between QQQ, GDX, EUO, TAIL [https://hedgehog-app-ten.vercel.app/](https://hedgehog-app-ten.vercel.app/)
So you have a couple options: 1. You can sit in a cash proxy like SGOV 2. You can model a portfolio with multiple hedges that balance out 3. You can incorporate funds like KMLM, BTAL, SJB, TAIL 4. You can mitigate risk by going into hedged or rebalancing ETFs like ALLW, HEGD, or Pacer Trendpilot.
Just hold CAOS or TAIL. That's what it's made for.
I have a decent amount in TAIL, PDBC and GLDM. Might be smart to sell on Monday and buy SPY dip 🤔
This is why you don’t gamble options the TAIL risk of Elon calling Trump a chomo is REAL.
GOLDMAN SACHS: IN EXTREME TAIL SCENARIOS WHERE MARKET FOCUS ON RISKS OF FED SUBORDINATION OR OF CHANGES IN US RESERVE POLICY WAS TO GROW, ESTIMATE GOLD COULD PLAUSIBLY TRADE NEAR $4,500/TOZ BY END-2025 
Sell a put, but can be a bit technical. A bunch of ETfs could help, either add BTAL to your portfolio (short high beta) or something like TAIL or CAOS ETF. The later two are designed to hedge and professionally managed.
days like this I buy DOG, PSQ and TAIL
my whole portfolio is pretty much a hedge at this point (US equities down to 10% and defensive) but specifically PSQ, TAIL, PFIX along with FXF, FXY, FXA
I am buying TAIL etf as a hedge. Weight: 3% of the portfolio
Apparently you hinted AI to filter out those successful trades/hedges. And AI also misunderstood some normal trades (such as shorting bonds) as TAIL hedge. Given the limited public discussion on this topic, I am quite certain that AI’s knowledge is either limited or entirely nonsense. It’s easy to explain the trade after something bad has happened (a feature of black swans). It’s hard to do it beforehand with “prediction”. And I don’t think even Bill Ackman was able to predict such events. If so, he should have bet 2 billion into it instead of the mere 2700 million.
>The position was super liquid at the time because everybody wanted to have some sort of protection My question was not about the liquidity of the PUT, but about your internal readiness to sell. What criteria did you use when you decided to sell your S&P 500 PUT? Why you did not wait for longer, in case the market would have further downturn? >$TAIL had too much Treasury and too little put option. So what do you use for protection? In the money PUT? Out of the money PUT? How deep in the money or out of money? >A wrong size is far worse than a bad stock pick. In your case the key seems to be able to sell the PUT at the correct time. Do you just have a limit order on the PUT at \~50x original value?
Of course I was able to sell. The position was super liquid at the time because everybody wanted to have some sort of protection, kind of desperate, I'll say. Same thing happened to Bill Ackman in March 2020 and he was able to cash out 2.6B fresh capital. Ask perplexity about it. $TAIL had too much Treasury and too little put option. And they generally chose wrong options to hold. You'll never find a good size with it: either end up with too much Treasury (aka waste of money) or too little protection. A wrong size is far worse than a bad stock pick.
>For Aug 5, the tail hedging position grew to 80 times during the crash Were you able to sell your hedging position during 2024-08-05 crash? If not - why would this hedging position even matter long-term? >And current ETFs such as $TAIL cannot do tail hedging at all. What's the difference between $TAIL ETF and hedging that you are doing? [`https://www.perplexity.ai/search/tail-risk-hedging-a-practical-AFeAMTtFTeS31C6H8mxSRg#1`](https://www.perplexity.ai/search/tail-risk-hedging-a-practical-AFeAMTtFTeS31C6H8mxSRg#1) `Tail Risk ETFs: Funds like Cambria’s TAIL ETF invest in OTM put options combined with intermediate-term U.S. Treasuries.` `...` `Treasury Holdings (85-90% of Assets)The majority of TAIL’s portfolio is allocated to intermediate-term U.S. Treasuries, which provide steady income and act as a "safe haven" during market stress. These bonds typically rise in value when equity markets crash, offsetting losses elsewhere.` `Put Options on the S&P 500 (10-15% of Assets)TAIL spends ~1% of its assets monthly to buy laddered, out-of-the-money (OTM) put options on the S&P 500`
It's safe to say that tail hedging loses money slowly. However, it's beneficial if you have the right size. Generally it's a complex/non-linear thing. Tail hedging became more and more important because the crash became faster. Back to 2008 investors had over a year to sell, then in March 2020 they had only several days. We should not always count on Fed or Treasury to bailout because they may not be able to swiftly do that. For Aug 5, the tail hedging position grew to 80 times during the crash, thus it provided a good amount of fresh capital to catch the falling knife. And current ETFs such as $TAIL cannot do tail hedging at all. Don't touch.
>On August 5, 2024 when the market crashed, my portfolio was beautifully protected by the hedging strategy. Why did your portfolio need protection? If you kept your portfolio unprotected, then by now your portfolio would have higher gains overall (after temporary decline in August 2024). TAIL ETF declines about 30% every year: [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TAIL/](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TAIL/) So consistently using TAIL ETF has negative impact on your portfolio profitability (while lowering volatility of your portfolio).
Advertisers are hard to come by if they are organized and are orchestrated against you. Which is illegal as far as I know and the Reason he's brought the lawsuits. Anybody can be brought down if all the businesses are controlled and directed against one. FOR FREEDOMS SAKE EVERYBODY SHOULD BE OUTRAGED THAT TWITTER IS BEING ATTACKED!!. STAND NOW AND SPEAK OUT OR TUCK TAIL AND ACCEPT YOUR NEW CHAINS AND MASTERS
A hedged equity ETF like HEQT would be an alternative option. It uses a costless put collar spread so you're not just bleeding on the put premiums. There's also TAIL and CAOS, which are pure tail risk protection etfs.
[50K in puts - ready for tomorrow Bear Gang!](https://imgur.com/kdEjt42) This is a YOLO - peeps that follow me PLEASE DO NOT TAIL, I'll post a recommended Amazon play next week. I'm currently slowly scaling into it
I know, but Universa (Spitznagel's and Taleb's brainchild), did have a significant gain during the Covid wave. TAIL didn't budge much.
*Cambria* does exactly this, you can read more about their construction here: * [https://www.cambriafunds.com/tail](https://www.cambriafunds.com/tail) * [https://www.cambriafunds.com/assets/docs/Cambria\_TAIL\_Summary.pdf](https://www.cambriafunds.com/assets/docs/Cambria_TAIL_Summary.pdf) It's not doing too well though...
Onix correlation confirmed. ROCK solid pick. No way you get TAIL-WIPPED. HARD not to loose here.
Yes, this is my understanding as well. It works similarly to $TAIL (Cambria Tail Risk ETF), which is intended to hedge a portfolio against a severe drawdown in the event of a black swan but does not attempt to provide strong positive returns year in and year out.
Now you kids are probably saying to yourselves “hey im gonna go out and I’m gonna GET THE WORLD BY TAIL, and wrap it around and pull it down and put in my pocket! Well I’m here to tell you that you’re probably going to find out, as you go out there; that you’re not going to amount to JACK SQUAT!
>Are there multiple types of inverse ETFs (not counting different levels of leverage)? Most are like SH with daily resetting with linear exposure. They use swaps and/or futures to get short exposure, and reset the amount of exposure at the end of each day. There are a few others. TAIL uses put options. DWSH is actively managed. There's also long VIX futures funds which are effectively short the market. >Do they come with different thresholds on the index where they fall off a cliff and go to zero? Based on their leverage. A -1x/-2x/-3x fund would go to zero if the underlying index rose 100%/50%/33.3% in one day. The funds may also specify thresholds where the fund will be liquidated in their prospectus. While that won't zero them out by themselves, if the short index recovers, you may not be able to find a replacement fund to ride the recovery. >What are there risks that the ETF should go up in value but the issuers of the instuments in the ETF fail? ETFs are segregated companies, linked to the underlying index by the assets they hold. If their issuer goes bankrupt, its creditors won't have access to the ETF's assets. ETNs are debts of the issuer, linked to the index by a calculation. The issuer hedges the exposer internally. They have counterparty risk: if the issuer goes bankrupt, they may not be paid off in full. However if I remember correctly, redemptions are not halted immediately in bankruptcy so you may have time to sell or redeem the notes for full value before they get pooled with the rest of the company's debts. Lehman ETNs were in this position and I am not familiar with the details but you can try to look for that history.
XCLR is -7.7% YTD while VOO is -13.8%. That's a relative win. QCLR is -8.7% YTD while QQQ is -22.6%. That's a relative win. NUSI and QQQ are about the same on price, but NUSI has a 10.3% div yield. That's a win. TAIL is the worst, but still outperforming VOO by about 3.5%. All in all, they're doing what they're supposed to do, which is mitigating risk, not eliminating it. If you wanted to go nuts on a bearish bet, SQQQ is +40.9% while QQQ is -22.6%.
XCLR--S&P 500 options collar strategy ETF (sells calls, buys puts) QCLR--NASDAQ 100 options collar ETF NUSI--NASDAQ 100 options collar TAIL--S&P 500 Put options strat (holds mainly treasuries, buys puts) XTR--S&P 500 Put options strat (holds S&P 500, buys puts)
I bought my TAIL Call Leaps as my first option play Let's get this muffugin crash started yooo
how many companies have gone woke then gone broke? how is this a "TAIL as old as time"???
OIL, TAIL, HSBC, GLD, GME [are all trending stocks](https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/stocks/market-sentiment). bull gang rise up
Spy puts, spxs calls will be sold minutes after rates hiked. DRV & TAIL calls sold around 2 weeks before exp. They need a little time to cook. Options are borderline non existent in DRV. Very little volume or liquidity. That's going to change.
I'm gonna yolo everything I have ($200k+) into spy puts 1 strike away from ITM tomorrow 5 min before close, calls 1 strike away from ITM on SPXS tomorrow , puts 2 months out on DRV $20 strike, & lastly , calls on TAIL. Essentially inverse apocalypse black swan fund ETF. You do you. Not financial advice. But were lookin at a .75 -1 % rate hike on Wednesday. Markets going to meltttttt. Blood like a resident evil remake running at 8K on an OLED tv. I'm usually a bull, but I go where the $ is. I'm an aggressive and reckless proud member of WSB. But this bear will take his tendies, dash a little love on some blue chips that will be ashes at that point and hibernate during this bear market going forward.
Watching this informative video I yawned and heard "MOST RETARD INVESTORS....." Had to rewind that cause I was like what? "MOST RE**TAIL** INVESTORS....." lol okay, but im pretty sure he meant the first one at heart
*DIMON: STAGFLATION IS A `FAT TAIL RISK FOR A BANK' Raise the rates Jerome.
>\*DIMON: STAGFLATION IS A `FAT TAIL RISK FOR A BANK' ^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2022-05-23 ^14:34:45 ^EDT-0400
Might buy the dip in TAIL to prep for the dip in everything else I own.
>\*YELLEN: 'TAIL RISK' IN 2020, 2021 WAS GREAT DEPRESSION REPEAT ^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2022-04-28 ^09:43:11 ^EDT-0400
I did a bunch of growth/tech buying right before things got ugly. All my new money right now goes to SCHD and TAIL. First step is to stop losing money
After seeing that my all-growth 403b was above the contributions despite starting in the first half of January, I decided to put my Roth on the same contribution schedule and just buy partial shares of QQQ and SWTSX for the foreseeable future. Same with my retail account, but with SNPE, SCHD, XLF, TAIL and some upstart tech stocks that may or may not be dead.
I've been trying to research the same thing and my conclusion is that because SPY represents essentially the market's neutral state, it's very hard to hedge. It's also a problem of basic math: values can increase indefinitely, but can only decrease to $0. I've found things that are less volatile, but very little long hold assets that have significant negative correlation: [https://www.etfscreen.com/corrsym.php?s=SPY](https://www.etfscreen.com/corrsym.php?s=SPY) That said, I did find TAIL, which hedges against high volatility downtrends using OTM puts, and can be held long term.
Anyone familiar with the TAIL hedge ETF? I'm considering buying whenever the market turns bull again so I can sell it to fund more growth stuff the next time it tanks. And in general, what's a normal percentage of portfolio to keep as a hedge against the overall market?
>but tech is obviously not going anywhere QQQ / Nasdaq 1000 crashed 80% in the dot com bubble and was underwater for 14 years. tech as an industry is not going anywhere. but that doesn't necessarily imply it's a good investment. I like things like TAIL as a small part of a portfolio, because it takes the sting out of a major slump. but all this stuff is risky and looking at recent returns is 'recency bias'. no reason to expect the future will be anything like the recent past.
Mix of Ray Dalio with the all weather aspect, and kinda Boglehead in that I like to just set and forget and try not to worry about market timing, but I like leaning into small cap value a lot more and I do tinker. I recently shifted my large cap exposure into RSP and AVLV more. I took a small position in TAIL as insurance for a real market shift. Plus, I love value investing principles. I like figuring out intrinsic value and buying at a bargain. I try not to chase growth, so I didn't do as good as the market last year, but Ive got 25 more to go til retirement.
There is but you need to redefine risk. Risk is not volatility. Volatility is your friend in that if you are a long term holder, volatility creates the opportunity to buy your business at a much smaller amount relative to its intrinsic value. You also need to think about the idea of buying the top stock performers of the decade and expecting them to continue that growth into the next decade. Apple grew income at an average of 10% a year in the last ten years. Do we expect Apple to have almost 1 trillion dollars in sales a year in the next 10? It's possible, sure. Its also likely growth slows for Apple and it transitions more to a blue chip stock. Look at ExxonMobil. It was a top stock in the '00s. How was it in the '10s? At the end of the day, what I've done to mitigate risk is to build a primarily ETF driven portfolio with holdings in large cap, small cap value, developed markets, emerging markets, and a small 7% position in long-term bonds, a 3% in TAIL for black swan events, and a 5% spot in gold which tends to stagnate in price for years except in slowing economies with high inflation. I also put 20% in individual stocks, all picked from a value perspective of understanding the fundamentals, the long-term prospects for growth, who runs these companies, their advantages over competition, and whether the price is at a good margin of safety in case I wrong. I keep up with news and quarterly reports to see if my ideas still hold. I try not to pay attention to short-term price fluctuations except when those fluctuations give me buying opportunities. I could very well be wrong, but if I invested with a margin of safety in mind, it'll minimize my loses and allow my right picks to run and really build my capital. Value investing is the only way I can see to truly mitigate risk.
I do large cap etf's, small cap value, emerging markets, developed markets, a little bit of long term bonds and gold, TAIL as a small hedge, and a 20% of individual stock picks. I'm down 2%. I'm actually doing better than my 401(k). Whole lotta growth chasing that just isn't going to work anymore. People really need to learn valuation and how to ride dips. If you got a set of long term holds at a margin of safety and below intrinsic value, you get excited at a 20-30% drop, not fearful.
If you are 30% cash, take a chunk of that and invest in something like TAIL or CYA which are designed to pop in a crash scenario. You might not hedge all downside but should help calm your nerves a bit.
If you are going to reduce your exposure to the market, do it with a clear plan of how you will get back in. There will most likely come a point where the market starts going higher than you think it should, and getting stuck waiting for another dip that never comes is worse than losing some money in the short term. My safe haven sub-portfolio is treasuries, BTAL, GLDM, managed commodity futures. I generally don't need a direct hedge because I mostly invest in indexes, but if I were to use one, I would go with TAIL (puts) or short SPX rather than VIX funds.
I do 80% ETFs, 20% individual stocks. My ETF portfolio is pretty diversified, using large cap as a base but tilting into small cap value, developed markets, emerging markets, some bonds and a bit of a gold hedge and using TAIL as a hedge. I'm down 1%. Emerging markets and gold have done decent YTD. I've beat the market around 6%. Market beat me by 9% all year in 2021, but its not a short term game for me, and years like this remind me Why I don't just dump it all into VOO or even VT.
>BOFA: ONLY 30% INVESTORS EXPECT AN EQUITY BEAR MARKET IN 2022; 41% OF INVESTORS EXPECT FLATTER YIELD CURVE, HIGHEST SINCE FEB 2005 \>RUSSIA-UKRAINE TENSIONS IS 5TH BIGGEST "TAIL RISK" FOR MARKETS; HAWKISH CENTRAL BANKS REMAIN TOP RISK ^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2022-02-15 ^04:33:30 ^EST-0500
A real estate agent will always tell you it's a good time to buy, a car salesman, a financial advisor always says it's a good time to invest. It's dangerous advice. When people entered at the top of the tech bubble they got obliterated. You can invest in something like TAIL (puts ETF) or buy puts on spy or qqq if you want to take positions, but I would not recommend buying into anything with the full amount until the Ukraine thing is over and the rate hikes are done.
I'm in no way qualified to answer your question, but I'll do it anyways because well it's the internet and people take financial advice from a guy named wonderwall. AFAIK simple put buying won't work. There is a lot of research showing the drag on your portfolio is too expensive over time, and if you look at funds like $TAIL that certainly seems to be the case. Some of the other people on this thread try to mitigate the cost by market timing, and you probably know Spitznagel himself talks about Tobins Q ratio. Universa is very secretive about what they do, and they are almost certainly doing OTM option buying on SPX or several markets, the question is what options they are selling in order to finance it to lower their drag on the many years we don't have a tail event.
$TAIL did not move much during the Covid crash. I would just buy LEAPS puts > 30% OTM with a strike with very high open interest.
I want to squeeze some extra profit out of my 100% global stock ETF position. Possibly via a leveraged ETF such as UPRO. Due to the risks of a leveraged ETF I want a hedge. [One way is via TAIL, an ETF with intermediate term bonds and an S&P500 put ladder.](https://www.cambriafunds.com/tail) Things I want to verify: 1. Ignoring the bonds, **would it be a stretch** to approximate this put ladder with a single put? 2. Can the combination of UPRO and the 'single put approximation' be approximated by a single call (via the put-call parity)?
$TAIL is designed to gently go down in normal / rising / flat market conditions, but go up if there’s a market crash. It could be used in combination with $SWAN to properly hedge against a market crash, although I’m not sure what proportion of SWAN to TAIL would work best in various market conditions. QYLD and QQQX could also fit in such a portfolio depending on someone’s goals. But be aware these are all complicated derivatives that are never really going to be as low cost and predictable as simpler more straightforward investments.
Yeah they don't even try to avoid people front-running when he sells stock either, right? Some people might say that paying without a huge fight, and selling in a non-obscured way, are both leaving money on the table. I think he correctly thinks that wringing out pennies on the TAIL end is a PR risk, and a distraction, and that he's in such a good position, and his concentration is at enough of a premium, that it's worthwhile for him to do things as simply as possible.
there are many ETFs that will provide downside protection whether by weighting on treasuries (basically cash+interest), long volatility, long commodities, long equity puts, swaps, etc. tickers are TAIL, PHDG, RPAR, and so on better yet, if you're a new investor, just keep some cash at hand rather than trying to get cute burning money on hedges you dont really understand
over the long-run it'd be a wash or break-even, wouldn't it? a small position, 5-10%, in a tail-risk strategy like TAIL or RWM and the remainder in regular funds/ETFs would take the sting out of a major drop but wouldn't be a long-term drag on performance. look up the long-term history of RWM. but a better option is just to diversify with international, small cap and perhaps value stocks. VOO is dominated by US large and it skews towards growth stocks. but small, value and international will tend to move in cycles and can outperform large cap growth for years at a stretch.
*TAIL last seen: never* Listen if I wanted this kind of treatment I’d just stay at home.
**Ticker Added TAIL** Spam: True Last Seen Market Cap: 0.0 Is SPAC: False Common Word: True
Two thirds bought $TAIL calls even though $HEAD had a 50% higher chance of payout. True idiots, 100% chance some of them were responsible for WSB DD
Treasuries (VGIT/VGLT) and broad market bonds (AGG) are still good. The ten year is at 1.29%, thirty year is 1.90%, and agg is 1.38%. On one hand those numbers are low compared to past decades. On the other hand, they can still improve a portfolio at that yield through diversification as long as yields don't start consistently rising, and our yields are higher than in most other highly developed countries. You can also buy some I-bonds, limited to 10k per year per person. They are tied to inflation like TIPS but they also have a real yield component that isn't negative (0% vs -1.03 for 10yr TIPS). You can dip down in credit a bit with multisector bond funds for higher yield, though that additional return will be fairly correlated with stocks. If you're looking to branch out from there, there's TIPS (SCHP), gold, managed commodity futures (usually have quite high fees though), market neutral strategies like bet against beta (BTAL) or dynamic equity momentum (PTLC) (several of these funds have closed like DYLS, you can also implement it yourself with stop losses or monitoring a momentum indicator like 200 day moving average vs 50 day). These alts variously have low/unreliable returns, unreliable correlation to equities, high vol, and/or high fees, so I wouldn't just allocate to them in your portfolio without examination. Lastly there's direct hedges like buying protective puts or equivalently replacing your stocks with an equivalent notional amount of long calls (TAIL and SWAN do this in fund form). Direct hedging tends to be expensive long term because
When you say you tried bonds, were they treasury bonds like TLT? Treasury bonds are less positively (sometimes negatively) correlated to stocks than corporate bonds. For example, TLT was up a bunch in march 2020. In terms of non-negative-ish expected return indirect hedges, I have some BTAL and a managed futures fund. But CAPM will tell you that a reliable market hedge should have a negative If you want a reliable hedge, you can short the market with options/futures, or an ETF that does it for you like SH or TAIL, or short selling an ETF. You could also short credit, though I'm not sure what the most efficient way to do that is.
I don't think we're going to see a bear market with a recession anytime again soon, so probably just something that would help you rebalance. Something like $TAIL or a variety of convex ETFs that help protect against major corrections in the S&P and NASDAQ. Simplify offers some. Personally I'm not doing any of these things though, I'm not worried about it.
I agre we gonna see one of the biggest crashs in history, and this time probably not directly around with a strong V to return to previous highs. The only little question is: When? As nobody is able to predict it I try to find downmove securities which are not so expensive like buying Puts on stock indices or stocks. I prefer selling high Puts in VIX, atm Puts in VXX or sometimes buying some calls in TAIL. In all those You have also time value loss, but by managing this it's not so extreme like in Your example.
Buying shares of TAIL to try and hedge for the reasons you’ve stated
If you really think a crash is coming then start building a position in $TAIL. Basically a put ladder hedge strategy in an etf wrapper
I think the ideal strategy would be to buy puts to deploy tail hedge protection yourself. But if you don't want to do that seems like TAIL could be a good ETF. Here's a great video on the subject. https://youtu.be/9mfnSM0k9jY
Yep, they're basically like an insurance policy. It you cash flow every month, and you hope you never need it but if s*** hits the fan they will pay out. TAIL has only been around since 2017, so it's hard to pull too many references around how this will perform long-term. But it is a viable alternative if you fear a market crash.
Thanks for the TAIL idea, I've been looking for something inversely correlated to SP500 while guarding against inflation. Will check it out.
TAIL or similar ETF’s seem to have lost 8-12% in the last year or so. Guessing since they are downside protection and the market has only gone up, that explains why. Yield on them looks like basically zero as well.
While everything is at all time highs and feels overvalued I think when you look at the bigger picture it really isn't. If it was just stocks, I would think it's a bubble. But it's literally crypto, real estate, commodities. Just about every asset class is taking off. There's so much cash in the economy, and no one wants to hold it as cash or buy a bond or annuity that could fail to outpace inflation. I think as long as the FED keeps printing money and keeping interest rates low we're going to continue to see assets trade higher. So I wouldn't want to hold a lot of cash or invest in things like bonds that could get beat by inflation. And if this is retirement investing that's 10 plus years out, I would stay fully invested knowing that you can't time a crash and that we will likely recover above where we are today within 10 years. Some Ideas if you think we are due for a crash or want to hedge against it. Government I Savings Bonds. There is a $10K yearly limit but they are guaranteed to outpace inflation (currently 3.5%). You also are locked up for one year and have to surrender 3 months interest if liquidating before 3 years. Gold & Silver: both have intrinsic value and neither seems like it's in any sort of a bubble. I personally like PSLV and have about 5% of my portfolio in it. TAIL or another similar ETF: Rather than keeping bonds I like the idea of using a Black swan hedge. TAIL buys out of the money puts worth 1% of their assets every month. And then invest the rest of their cash in government securities. The idea is most months the fun loses a little bit of money, but if the market crashes, this ETF will Spike and you can take cash from the spike to reinvest in your other positions while there are at a low.
You could move some $ into TAIL as a hedge. Check it out.
I bought the ETF TAIL. It went up nicely on todays decline.
If you actually expect it, there are investment that do well in recessions. You can do stocks like Anheuser Busch and Autozone...people tend to drink cheaper beer and repair their own cars when money is tight. Or you could do an ETF like TAIL that basically bets against the S&P.
I like TAIL. Contango not an issue like it is with some of the other symbols mentioned in this thread.
For a hedge/market dip play, check out TAIL, which is an etf that is largely comprised of 10 year treasuries, TIPS, long SPX put options and a little cash. Full disclosure: I own 200 shares in my 401k and 10 TAIL 9/17 20c
If the market does correct/crash buy TAIL. It won’t make you rich but it can save your portfolio.
I’m not hear to predict when the market will correct but when it does buy TAIL.
Basically you'll be looking for an asset that will under perform during a bull market, but is designed to over perform during a beat market. These type of investments need to be properly balanced and rebalanced regularly with an understanding of what exactly they are, why you hold them, and an understanding that holding them will cause you to under perform during bull markets. The trade off is that you have less downside risk during bear markets. Cambria Tail Risk ETF (TAIL) is an example of one of these assets.
What about TAIL? Its a bond that jumps up during the 2020 crash.
#LONG TAIL SALLY, she Built sweet, she got everything, that Uncle John need. Aw baby, I'm gonna have me some fun.....gonna have me some fun
\^ T H I S ​ I am in 50% cash and 50% TAIL. ​ TAIL: ​ Fund Summary The investment seeks to provide income and capital appreciation from investments in the U.S. market while protecting against significant downside risk. The fund is actively managed and seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing in cash and U.S. government bonds, and utilizing a put option strategy to manage the risk of a significant negative movement in the value of domestic equities. The adviser intends to spend approximately one percent of the fund's total assets per month to purchase put options.
Still a good time to buy some TAIL. ​ Correction has started and TAIL rises with each leg down in the market.
Imagine you could travel back to Chaucer’s time in Canterbury Tales and get some CANTERBURY TAIL! Homie was out there slaying that hairy medieval poosey
Definitely adding TAIL to my watch list. Sounds interesting.
For a cheap method to gain direct exposure to positive returns in the case of a crash, managed by a professional, consider an ETF like $TAIL or similar. These tend to hold a dynamic portfolio of swaps and OTM puts that are rolled about as cheaply as possible, with none of the path dependence problems of something like SQQQ Modelling option prices on an inverse levered ETF is one of the most complicated tasks you can attempt, this idea of path dependence means that even if it turns out you're right and a crash comes, there is no guarantee the ETF will trade at anything like today's prices -- it all depends (essentially) on the combination (and order!) of up and down days between now and the crash. Levered ETFs are a nightmare, avoid them.
IF IT HAS A TAIL ITS A MONKEY IF IT DOESNT HAVE A TAIL ITS AN APE \--Larry the Cucumber
I'm an old fart. I like going to the movies. Yes, the popcorn and sodas are super-overpriced, and the candy is stale, and the seats are sticky. I don't care. It's a core memory, going to see *Star Wars* with my daddy when I was a wee bairn. Seeing *Bambi*, and *Dumbo*, and *Indiana Jones*, and *ET*, and *Close Encounters of the Third Kind*. ​ So I have bought AMC not because I plan to make tons o' tendies. Not because I think it's 'going to the moon'. I BOUGHT AMC BECAUSE I HAVE EMOTIONAL ATTACHMENT TO THE COMPANY FROM MY CHILDHOOD, AND I DON'T WANT TO SEE SOME CONNIVING HUDDLE OF RICH TARTS DRIVE MY CHILDHOOD MEMORIES OUT OF BUSINESS ON THE TAIL OF A PANDEMIC. ​ So there.