Teladoc Health Inc
$0.12 (0.17%) Today
52 Week High
52 Week Low
7 Days Mentions
“Tdoc is 60 now doesn’t mean it is oversold,” this is based on nothing but conjecture on your part as well. You may or may not be right, but anyone who confidently says this about a hyper growth stock is being disingenuous. The average institutional analyst are giving an average price target of 145$ (look at the analysis tab): https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TDOC/analysis?p=TDOC Unless we have access to the info they’re using to determine this target, this is also speculation on their part. However, why should someone trust random redditors who are prone to groupthink instead? I’ve seen this confidently said about tdoc plenty of times, but they’ve never given a solid reason, other than the fact they hate the stock, which is akin to “I like the stock,” type analysis that’s facetiously (or sometimes seriously?) done on wallstreetbets.
SHOP & SOFI are reasonable to cheap imo. I've not looked into TDOC or FVRR recently. At this point most growth stocks I look into are reasonably valued to undervalued. UPST is very cheap, although it's bounced quite a bit the last couple of days. That said I tend to only buy growth stocks which are top-in-class businesses in large growing sectors. While I might think something like FVRR & TDOC is cheap I would be nervous about the sectors they operate in. I don't think it's clear how big their TAM is yet which means you have to believe both in the company and the growth potential of the sector overall. I will buy into these kinds of stocks from time to time as short-term plays with UPST being an example of that, but I would view these stocks are more risky.
Buffett has spoken about how stupid it is to categorise some stocks as growth stocks and other stocks as value stocks because fair value depends on growth and most value names are value names for a reason. You want growth at a fair price, the problem is most people don't know how to identify what a fair price is for growth because they're comparing metrics directly with relatively stagnant companies. People forget how companies like FB used to trade with a PS in the high teens / low twenties and a PE over 100 during a period when interest rates were much higher. Stock like SHOP trading at a 25 PS and 150ish TTM PE today are just not as expensive or unreasonably priced as some people think. As an investor the biggest mistake I've made is probably not investing in companies like FB, AMZN and NFLX years ago because I was concerned about their valuations. Not only was I wrong about these stocks not justifying their high valuations, I could have never imagined them so significantly outperforming the broader market. In many cases these names could have been 2x more expensive than they were and still have been fantastic investments. I do agree with you that you shouldn't have a portfolio full of growth stocks though and that there is a difference between highly speculative, sometimes pre-revenue investments and growth stocks like SHOP or TDOC. For example a stock like SPCE doesn't even have a proven business model yet and really shouldn't be in the same category as companies like SHOP and NET which I and others use every day professionally. These aren't memes or highly speculative companies yet to prove they have a business but legit companies that are growing fast and offering real value to their users.
One thing that makes me think more about "deep value territory".... Alot of these ROKU/PINS/TDOC stocks are going back to pre pandemic valuations. But all financial data shows they have much better positions that before. So better revenue from 2019 with equal yields yet also equal valuations?
Get that. But ETFs mainly work through time. Anyway, a good balance between individual stocks and bit of ETFs (value focus or just broad) never hurts. Even if only 20% of your portfolio. Personally looking at Disney, MSFT, TDOC and AUR for some riskier plays that seem to be low(ish) at the moment.
Absofuckingloutely! In the growth crash of 2021 (I think it was around May?), I swore I will go all into indexes and ETFs once I recover from this. I managed to recover all loses and was even positive in October/November (a swing from -60k to +30K). But I was stupid and didn't do it. As of today, I am sitting at -75K on the same account (something like -50K YTD). I have managed to get out of most of my speculative growth plays, but still have BABA, BIDU, SE, PYPL and TDOC. Not sure if I keep holding TDOC and SE. TDOC is the shittiest one (-45%, -30K), while SE is also quite bad (considering I started a position only about a month ago, -40%, -10K). But no more investing in companies that don't have PEs. And most of my investments will go to indexes/ETFs and maybe 10-20% towards the solid companies like GOOG and MSFT that I already hold.
I started late 2021. After the only green day in Jan everything has seemed like a nightmare. I don't even own meme stocks or play with options. The only picks that I really regret are TDOC and SQ which I made on a whim after reading some Motley Fool articles (never again) - I'm down more than 50% on both but they're only a small portion of my portfolio. What hurts is putting a lot of money in at near ATHs on 'good companies' like MSFT, NVDA and GOOGL. Feeling like an idiot for not taking some profits during the green day earlier this month.
ARKK, I really enjoy most of their holdings, I hate to say it. ​ TSLA, I think it's a great company to be long on, could go under a big correction, but it looks like the future of EV's. TDOC, I mean come on, Telehealth has got to be the future of healthcare, if they can navigate these times and cement themselves as the leader of telehealth, they're going to be a massive winner. ​ ZM, yuck. ROKU, unsure. ​ COIN- Coin looks nuts! Their p/e is already at a super discount, and I think crypto could pave the way for a more decetrentalized future, however it's going to be in for a rough couple of years. ​ U- I love unity! If the metaverse does actually happen it will be built off Unity I truly believe. I think the new unreal engine looks amazing and we can see some new games being built off that engine hopefully. Spotify- anecdotal, but dude, Spotify is super freaking popular and I feel they're outmaneuvering Apple Music a little bit, and with APPL facing anti-trust I feel Spotify could continue to grow! TWILIO and UIPATH im unfamiliar, but SQ you gotta be long on. ​ Every single small business that I personally know are built off of SQ, + their adventures into Crypto are really cool, also I just genuinely like CashApp and the idea of it being way more decentralized than Venmo is. My sisters business is running off of SQ and a sister franchise of ours is also running off of SQ and I continue to see adoption in companies that use it! ​ so, in short - man, if you're bullish on fancy new tech and innovation, fuck it, just hold, but if you're like me and think the Metaverse won't come to fruition you'd be better buying off some select stocks that she has. This could be a really long hold but there are some great companies in there, some are terrible though.
After I got vaxxed I’ve done it as much as possible. Surrounded by liberals so only so much you can ignore, but I’m not exactly one of those “I’m scared to leave my house cause I’ll get **OMNICRON!!!11**” types. The overreaction changed the economy massively tho from an interesting perspective, although making half of everyone into shut ins boosted tech a lot. A lot of shit is inevitably gonna fall as it ends, although tbh I think names like $TDOC and $ZM are oversold at this point
As I think we've figured out, it's time to short the rips instead of buying the dips. SPY puts are boring, so give me your garbage tickers! Let's get this bread. Here's a few to seed the list: WDAY, CHWY, TDOC, ABNB. Always looking for more.
trying to build out a new watchlist for this once in a lifetime "buy the dip" opportunity... if you could put a mil on a single stock with 3x potential what would it be ? i think 5x or 10x is too ambitious and im not willing to wait that long, but 2-3x is very realistic/achievable in a year or two. CLOV (didn't really care about this stock before but it's a real business with real revenues and it's currently under $3 so $6-9 seems very possible) PATH --if it hits the 20s PLTR - if it goes down below 10 TDOC(good buy out target imo) - under 10 bil market cap im buying SQ, COIN(both too big i think but maybe 2x is possible)
CSCO had $0.36 EPS in their financial year ending July 2000. Their stock price hit $50+ at peak. So you're talking about well over 200 PE ratio back towards the height of the bubble. MSFT was up above 100 PE back then as well. If you'd bought MSFT at its 1999 high you'd still have significantly outperformed the S&P500 since. If you bought CSCO at ATH you'd be just under where you started. These 1999 stocks were trading at multiples much more similar to names like $TDOC, $ZM, $NET, etc. in 2021, which have already gotten smashed similarly to stocks in the tech bubble. You look at $INTC, $CSCO, $QCOM, companies that actually had a product. It's all around a 75-80% drawdown, similar to the NASDAQ at the time. We are already in the midst of our tech bubble crash right now. Tons of stuff down 70-80% already.
TDOC is a misunderstood company that a lot of investors still see as a pandemic play. If anything, the pandemic accelerated it's adoptions. It's here to stay and definitely a buy for me. Opened up a position recently and have added to it a couple of times since, including today.
Is TDOC in deep value territory? They have a lower valuation now than in 2018, when the idea of virtual medicine was still a niche and speculative market. In 2022 we know for certain that virtual medicine is here to stay and will in fact grow. Why might this be?
TDOC, ZS, GNRC, TPB, DIS. TDOC is probably the best-looking down around 75% from last year's ATH. Their EPS continues to climb and I think while the pandemic accelerated its growth, it is here to stay unlike some other stocks like PTON and Zoom that we *needed* because of the pandemic. People will use TDOC long after the pandemic "ends ends" because it's what the insurance companies say we can use, because it saves them money. Anything that saves health insurance companies money = $$$$$. That TDOC is trading in the seventies right now is peak FUD.
I think the part you’re not considering is that the market’s very high earning multiples & valuations have been heretofore justified by “explosive” growth and low interest rates. What happened to Netflix and to a bigger extent DocuSign was that they showed that growth slowing, even by just by a little bit. When that happened, their earnings multiples got crushed, even though they both still beat on earnings. Because their higher multiples could no longer be justified. This is happening to more and more companies: PTON, TDOC, NFLX, DOCU to name a few. We’re not saying there’s going to be a recession, but we’re entering into an environment where these historically very high multiples can no longer be justified (if only because of rising rates). Even if earnings stay the same, the market has already shown that it will reprice multiples at the first sign of slowing growth—or rising yields. Since the broader market still trades at very high multiples, slowing growth (by even just a little bit) + rising rates = broader market repricing/revaluation.
If this actually is 2000-2002 in the ZM/TDOC/PTON world, and I would have to say it might very well be that in that world given what I heard about PTON today, y'all have a TOOONNNN more pain to go and many people like you are going to get bombed out forever.
You say you care about valuations and yet you ignore the fact that TDOC is trading at 80% book value. And the competition has yet to surface. Amazon has been trying to penetrate telehealth for years and has been failing miserably. I would also say good luck but I don’t know what chance you stand when your ability to assess a company’s financials is so poor.
As you've outlined though, there's no justification on any stock going 5X or dropping 80% from a move in interest rates 2->0% or from 0->2%. They have a modest impact on NPV, no doubt, but $ZM's present value of future cash flows did not drop by 75% with the interest rate move. Instead, what's really happening is the market simply falls in and out of love with certain types of stocks. It's all momentum. There is no fundamental reason these stocks would be worth many times more or less than they were just a few months ago. Momentum is working in each direction on these stocks. It way overshot their values in Sept to Nov. Now it's selling them off like they're hopeless. In my opinion, it creates a great opportunity to go bargain hunting. These aren't specific names selling off, it's entire sectors. It's multiple compression. There are definitely small/mid cap tech stocks which are down 70-80% from their highs, that will be double or triple their value within 3 years. The risk/reward is setting up very well on things like TDOC, ZM, MTCH, NET, you name it. If you can find a company that is down 70-80% from its highs, and you are confident they can continue to dominate their sector, then you are getting in at a great position. You don't even need to be right half the time if your average winner goes up by 2.5X.
Thanks for the detailed post. I read it with interest as I am short ZIM and long PLTR so we definitely have different lines of thought. :) I'll share my thesis for anyone interested. I can't post charts in a reply which would help illustrate my thinking, but ZIM I've been short since September at 60.20, and MATX as well. Yes looking at FCF and revenues at the moment look great, but my thinking was more in line with what we saw with PTON, ZM, TDOC selling off as they were temporary long covid plays to begin with and financials looked great only while the markets they drive revenue from are strong. Markets are forward looking so current FCF is less important for stock price than future financials, which is what I'm speculating on reversing, where I believe you are speculating on a continuation. ZIM/MATX financials are up because the underlying market of shipping is going through a once in a lifetime supply chain issue making for bidding wars for containers to get on ships and the companies to drive more revenue from that. If you listen to the earnings calls you can hear their CEO's and CFO's discuss the issues. You can actually graph the correlation with shipping if you look at things like the Baltic Index or want to track shipping freight costs here [https://fbx.freightos.com/](https://fbx.freightos.com/) The inputs to shipping costs (fuel, labor, etc) have not increased substantially which you can see in a historical chart of operating expenses and COGS, thus with increased revenue they get higher EPS which has been on a tear lately. Many of the freight analysts I've heard have suggested after Chinese New Year in February they believe pressure will start to relieve as supply chain issues normalize. So in my mind, the shipping industry is reaping temporary rewards of a bidding war in ocean freight which is driving their top line growth, but I don't think that will last as supply chain issues will inevitably get sorted out over time, thus bringing down ZIM/MATX revenue. At least that's my operating thesis on the trade. In my view, the major risks from the short side are whether ZIM/MATX use their larger than normal cash reserves from their windfall profits to keep on doing buybacks (MATX has started) or figure out a great ROI way to deploy that capital to continue earnings growth.
Is anyone knowledgeable about TDOC? I bought some Jan28 81c. I felt bullish to keep holding for more gains (currently 35%) because I remembered Cathie has a boatload of this stock. But then I felt bearish because I realized Cathie has a boatload of this stock. So which is it?
I don't think that's a guarantee but it is certainly what the market has been pricing in over the last month or two. I could see the rates these pre-commercial "growth" companies get stay very close to the benchmark + 3-4% as they have been over the last few years, and if not, it seems to be priced into stocks like TDOC. I agree that the bailout was too generous to banks. With banks they can kind of just borrow money and not pay it back because "the banking system!", but I do like that Ford and a couple other automakers were bailed out and everybody won because jobs were kept and the loans were paid back in full with interest. Trying to predict or understand the long-term consequences of MMT are above my paygrade but it does seem like it's a system that only works because "America #1" and "EU #2!". If the US loses relevance like Greece (Greece was hella-relevant thousands of years ago) I could see it having total economic collapse like we saw with Greece. The Roman Empire has certainly seen better days as well.
To give an inanimate object like the stock market human-like traits, that's just an analogy. It's often helpful to think of the market like an adversary to overcome. It doesn't really matter if that's true or not. By my comment, I'm saying really it's that the rich are out to outplay the poor. They want your money. When you buy TDOC at $200 and sell it for $80, you're giving the rich your money. When you buy TDOC at $200 and hold onto it for 10 years, you are NOT giving the rich your money, well not so much anyway. In hindsight it's likely a hedge fund or congressman sold you the TDOC at $200, you're just not letting them buy it back for a 75% discount. I suppose I wouldn't use the analogy that the market is actively trying to hurt us, but I think it gets the point across.
Man TDOC makes good-enough sense to me. I usually take a closer look at companies when they start trading below book value, which for TDOC should be around $105. It got to the $90s and I was like "oh shit, it's really on sale!" and bought in. I have been buying in, as recently as today. I didn't think it would flirt with the $60s but hey I don't mind paying less for it. If the fundamentals are sound/YoY growth is favorable, I don't see why TDOC wouldn't make a comeback. If the reason people are selling TDOC is because the fed is inching up rates at a rate of 1% per YEAR, TDOC is incredibly oversold. I'm less optimistic about DraftKings and CoinBase but it's more because I try to stay out of that "virtual currency" stuff. Ultimately if we could predict a stock's direction by simply looking at fundamentals (and technicals) we would all be rich. TDOC could go to $10 on "worriez", DKNG could go to $100 because they make an NFT and Elon tweeted positively about it.
I think it's really as simple as every now and then the institutions and insiders realize ridiculous gains and everyone under them (that's us) freaks out and sells but at the end of the day, even with the fed increasing rates so far 1% (so what!), the only major change since 2019 is that inflation is/was significant... but like... keeping your money in cash when it loses 8-15% of its purchasing power annually is dumb in its own way. The money has to go somewhere, people aren't going to just sit on cash when the economy is relatively alright. I guess bonds are somewhat hot right now, but it always comes back to stocks eventually. This is another one of those "false bear markets". I don't know if these "value" or "growth" stocks will make it back to 2021-highs or not, but I do know TDOC at a 75% discount is *deeeecent*. "oh no, they have to pay 1% more in interest on their debt that they already pay > 0% interest on anyway how will they figure that one out!"
A lot of ARK stuff. TDOC HOOD ROBLOX PLTR BLOCK COIN DRAFTKINGS etc... These will not go down forever, Markets tend to over correct down while in a feedback loop... I feel they have gone way too far without even a bounce at this point. They could move another 20-40% down, which would be the risk i take on for my assumption they will each gain 400-800%. If they move up from here I would be thrilled that I almost timed the exact bottom, but yeah like i said... there could be a lot more pain before any gain.
Absolutely. If the fundamentals are sound, just hold/DCA. If fundamentals aren’t sound, eh case-by-case. I don’t disagree that higher interest rates = less money for growth companies to spend on growing, however companies like TDOC shouldn’t necessarily be down 75%+. It’s an overreaction man, and I only wish I had more cash to buy the dip.
Just hold! What I've noticed as an undeniable fact is that, sentiment on Reddit: (1) Runs off herd mentality. As long as a comment is upvoted and has a "fire" reaction to it making it stand out, people will believe it. (2) Is extremely short sighted. I've seen sentiment on companies virally change 3,4 times across a 1-2 year period with no real basis apart from the stock moving a certain way. The only way to win this game is to be an independent thinker. BTW on $PTON - 94% YoY Subscription Revenue growth as of latest earnings is not a joke. $PTON certainly is not worth $50 billion yet, but at this price point, it's one of the best growth plays IMO. Unlike $TDOC, it has not diluted shareholders much (shares outstanding are at roughly \~18% more than what they were pre-COVID), market cap's very similar to pre-pandemic, but they're now doing almost $1 billion revenue per quarter.
There may be some differences, but there are also a ton of similarities. A good company can be a bad investment at the wrong price. Buying TDOC at $300 is the equivalent of paying $400 for a penny. Just because someone did it before you doesn’t make it a good idea. Retail investors tripping over each other to bid up prices to absurd levels is a common theme. Expectations of extreme growth being priced into unprofitable companies is another. Companies that really have no need to go public—and investors that think companies like DocuSign have a moat are another. TDOC has no clear path to profitability. They massively overpaid for Livongo and don’t have a strong balance sheet. They also have gone TWENTY years without turning a profit during one of the biggest economic expansions of all time. What makes people think, “Just another five years and on its 25th anniversary, it’ll be profitable!” Bagholder hopium. The same thing that happened after dotcom retail investors realized they massively overpaid for their stocks. Very similar.