TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Mentions (24Hr)
-71.43% Today
Reddit Posts
Biden to announce Billions in Subsidies for MU, TSM to rev up chip production!
Any reason why I shouldn’t invest in TSM given its current price?
💰Going Long on TSM: The Unseen Goldmine Behind NVDA’s Success💰
TSM - I was right, kind of, and i think there's still more value here.
I cant help but wonder if $TSM has a whole another leg up to go
Nancy Pelosi bought $AB which owns a large position in $TSM. (Follow the money)
You buy $TSM indirectly. That’s how Nancy did it! $AB (Follow the Money)
China unveils draft for standardizing AI industry 🚀 $NVDA 🚀 $AMD 🚀 $TSM 🚀
Has anyone seriously looked at Global Foundries [$GFS]
Have about 13k invested in different markets. Just made my portfolio breakdown % similar to Warren Buffet’s. Mistake?
$INTC Israels : 3.2Billion for a Western Worlds TSM. And that ASML NM Machine. 5nm, 3nm, 2nm coming. No More Taiwan TSM China Fear.
High Investment Potential in AMD, Netflix, Eli Lilly, Palantir & TSM: Twin Momentum Investor Model
Whats the play for the culling of the American Autoworker
Does Biden cutting off chips to China mean TSM is gonna go up
YUKON TINTINA GOLD PROVINCE DD #1 - Western Copper & Gold
Apple’s Cheapest iPhone Surges in Popularity After Upgrades
Tesla CEO Elon Musk: 'We're using a lot of Nvidia hardware'
So with both ASML and TSM(C) earnings/calls complete how do we feel for the future of AI/semi-conductor chips sentiment?
My AI momentum trading journey just started. Dumping $3k into an automated trading strategy guided by ChatGPT. Am I gonna make it
The AI trading journey begins. Throwing $3k into automated trading strategies. Will I eat a bag of dicks? Roast me if you must
$TSM is extremely undervalued and overlooked, especially with AI
Investment plan for about 85 000$ USD over the coming year
Investment plan for about 85 000$ USD over the coming year
Gallium & Germanium: How will the second half of 2023 play out? Shift in the supply chain imminent?
Playing AI earnings is a short term money glitch which cannot go tits up (or can it?)
UPDATE: I decided to follow the strict curriculum of r/WSB, taking the entire total of my previous post into the same TSM option
UPDATE: TSM $110 Call on 6/30 - $27k gain at open - $64k gain in a week
Current weekly position- $110 strike on 6/30 for $TSM and other now closed positions - $40k in a week
TSM Stock Forecast: Sustainable Growth Within Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Volatility
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ($TSM) is a big supplier to Nvidia ($NVDA)
Comeback so close. $TSM, $LRCX, $AMZN are my road to a better life
What stocks outside of the semiconductor stocks and mega cap tech will survive the AI hype cycle?
2-5 international stocks recommendation for diversification
Need advice from people who also posted on Yahoo Finance.
2023-05-08 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of a Maple Syrup Lover
Market Recap - 5/4/23 - "It's not my fault, it's 'market manipulation'"
2023-04-28 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of Vanellope von Schweetz
US News' Investing's 2023 picks are up 13.1% vs 7.7% for S&P so far.
Market Recap - 4/20/23 - Things are bad, but not all bad, and the Fed is not done yet
EarningsGPT: This Week Earnings Releases and Reactions Summary by ChatGPT
EarningsGPT: This Week Earnings Releases and Reactions Summary by ChatGPT
IBM, TSM, NOK rocket 🚀 🤣
Week Ended April 14 - Recap and thoughts for next week- valuation model update
Sen. Tuberville disclosed a 3/21 options bet against Taiwan Semiconductor: $TSM $75P @ 09/15/2023
Sen. Tuberville disclosed a March options bet against Taiwan Semiconductor: $TSM $75P @ 09/15/202
The Big Cup and Handle, Earnings, CPI and FOMC…. 4-14-23 SPY/ ES Futures, VIX, 10YR Yield and DXY Weekly Market Analysis
With Buffett selling $TSM and senators buying puts on it, is the war in Taiwan breaking out?
Taiwan Semi Posts First Fall in Monthly Revenue in Years as Macro Headwinds Hit Chips
Rate my pie - Semiconductor stocks (exc NVDA, AMD, TSM)
Taiwan chip export plunges, China still lags amid U.S. restriction
For anyone who thinks that Warren Buffet always buy companies to hold them for more than 10 years, be wary, because he literally pumped and dumped TSM...
Room-Temperature Superconductivity Claimed – TSM Play
Daily U.S. Stock Market News Ticker (Monday, March 6)
What's the biggest "I told you so" stock moment?
Intel cuts 66% of forward dividend - a short opportunity?
Are chip makers like TSM really cyclical?
Mentions
Whole thing balances on TSM/ASML. Could see argument for AMAT argument but that’s the easiest of the 3 to get around. NVidia will come to earth somewhat. Intel has resorted to lobbying as they have had poor fabs and architecture for years and added to that with a poor response to issues recently. AMD of the 3 has the most room to run. Most of the GPU/AI architecture advantage is gone already it’s just current software is designed with CUDA in mind rather than AMD/others. Performance to watt with die size in mind on gaming (which takes AMD more seriously) already has them near even. AMD has had a huge advantage in defect rate on the CPU side due to chiplets and will almost for sure be the first to do it on the GPU/AI side. With limited foundry availability and defect parts not being comped, this is the next major step. If I was betting, ASML long, TSM long, AMD long. Uranium for power delivery as transistors are already a dozen or less atoms wide. Whoever can leverage MIT’s research into more efficient TEG’s as well which should go a good ways towards power recovery. Industry is going to be linked to energy for at least a decade now. The whole sector lost its luster a bit for me though with AI. The back turning on consumer facing products is lame (well outside AMD anyway). AMD gained data center CPU ground by hitting consumers first and proving their architectures advantages. They’re slowly doing the same with GPU’s now.
Broadcom has had accounting and reporting issues in the past. It’s widely reported that their latest deal with Anthropic is a cost pass through structure where AVGO acts as a middle man collecting a toll. The cost paid to TSM never shows in cost of sales or is offset by the reimbursement received from Anthropic. The toll gets reported in its services segment and appears as 100% margin but AVGO does little to add value. The toll is also relatively minor relative to the costs. It’s an accounting gimmick. If this gets confirmed and if it’s a wide spread then this will be a big scandal.
META and TSM are not in VGT. TSM is also not in VOO, only in VT. So really only quadruple dipping Google. Triple dipping META I wanted to be overweight in META, TSM and especially Google 🤷🏼♂️. I bought META on the recent dip at ~$600. Average Google price is ~$250. TSM is ~$270.
META and TSM are not in VGT. TSM is also not in VOO, only in VT. So really only triple dipping Google. I wanted to be overweight in META, TSM and especially Google 🤷🏼♂️. I bought META on the recent dip at $600. Average Google price is ~$250. TSM is $270.
Can we stop calling Tesla mag 7 ? We can replace it by TSM for example, that is a real stock and not a meme.
Or just buy stocks. I’d say 60% of my portfolio is in VOO, VGT and VT. 40% is in stocks like Google, Meta, TSM and a bunch of space stocks. Most for 1 position is about 4-5% of my port.
There is zero reason for TSM to be getting clobbered lmao
I’m just talking about since yesterday, not overall. TSM down over 3%
Catch me loading up on TSM
Agreed. I think it is continuation of profit-taking trend in AI stocks that started around Halloween. ORCL's disappointing earnings were an exception. Most AI stocks have had stellar earnings and very robust guidance, be it NVDA, TSM, AMD, AVGO, etc...
Looking at the top left corner of finviz is looking like a fucking yikes right now. AVGO in particular! Glad I sold them and TSM about 2 months ago!
TSM hasn’t tanked, and rightly so. It’s a fucking powerhouse.
I feel like the minute I buy into $TSM China is gonna invade
Up 12pts after hours Along with my TSM calls. Thank you Broadcom. Fuck you Oracle
Bullish on all datacenters. Genesis project was the pivotal moment for all hands on deck approach. All winners. $ORCL $NVDA $TSM $NBIS $IREN $CRWV $GOOGL $MSFT $META $APLD $AMD $AMZN
Red days are good for buying calls. I’d like to get some more TSM calls specifically.
However, I believe Tesla will successfully break into the market due to its $0.20-$0.40 operating cost per mile, the cheapest on the market. The cost reduction will be done thanks to the reduced use of LiDAR and radar and the greater weight of AI 4 chips (built by Samsung and TSM) and the smart computers. I wonder if the wrongful deaths lawsuits and insurance cost are taken into account here
was a paper handed bitch and sold for %2800 return on a TSM call
My TSM calls are almost at break even. Holy fuck 😭 I gotta stop buying at all time highs
Dumping my TSM for NVDA was the stupidest thing I’ve ever done
I guess none of you notices TSM the last couple days. Clear cut winner in the AI race
Planning a family with TSM 💕
Depends if you count Netflix as tech. It’s dropping again on news they *won’t* acquired WBD. None of their fundamentals, IPs, and revenue streams will be affected by this. Market punishing them right now for having more cash, healthier margins, and reduced synergy risk. If it drops to $90, I’ll enter. LUNR is at a $2.1B valuation right now. Lanteris adds $850M/yr revenue with backlog. It’s no longer an IM-3 bet but priced like it. I wanted to buy more during selloff but stuff like AVGO and TSM was just more tempting, safer. Disclaimer: don’t own Netflix. Small position in LUNR ~$5k.
I think Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta & TSM are under valued with PE ratios under 35.
These insiders have so much stock that getting rid of 12 million is nothing. It’s like us cashing out 100 shares to fund a new Rolex. The competition is slowly catching up but Nvidia is also lead by a relentless CEO that treats everyday as doomsday. Further adding to my confidence is the ultra strong relationship he has with the TSM boss, locking down almost all the capacity.
I hope TSM dips more. Thing is a goldmine.
China does not have the technology or factories to build the wafers TSM is building for NVIDIA. They had 2 option. I predicted this months ago. 1 they agree with Trump and buy there way into the AI GPU's or they invade Taiwan and takeover TSM, but that would be economical suicide. They chose the first.
This stock is truly a diamond in the rough. Please have a look at the thematics regarding this industry and the recent deald this company has made (TSM on their arizona plant). Sure this is not as volatile or popular as the trendy stocks, but this is a true company that have very very strong fundamentals. I urge you to have a look at the Q£ report. Very strong numbers.
NVDA and TSM are fucking pumping after hours 😂😂
TSM is about to skyrocket. I mean I guess as NVDA goes up so does TSM
Genuinely question, TSM is still barred from making chips for them, how do they make the “advanced chips”?
TSM better break 300 cause I’m fucked if not
The idea that they are a threat is outdated. This TAM isn’t even close to the beginning of saturation. This isn’t going to be zero-sum. Google has been developing this for a decade. What made even less sense was the market selling off TSM during the Google rally.
LRCX, TSM, AMAT, KLAC If you know, you know
Priced in, TSM already started moving operations to US, basically america said screw Taiwan we aren't protecting you anymore
tbh, you only really need to watch three companies: NVDA, TSM and ASML, if they start dropping everything else will just crash with them
I'm bullish on META, amazon, alphabet, AMD, TSM, nvidia, micron and ASML among others I'm bearish on oracle, nebius, coreweave, tesla, palantir and apple I'm neutral on broadcom and microsoft (mainly because of valuations relative estimated growth). Does it mean I will be correct? Absolutely not. But I invest where I believe the positive cash flows will be going and valuations relative to future earnings make sense.
I ran this word salad through Claude. Core Thesis: The author believes NVDA (and AMD/TSM) are massively undervalued, predicting NVDA should be at $215-225/share (vs current ~$140s) due to next-gen GPU technology being years ahead of supporting hardware. Key Arguments: - Fractal "W" Pattern Theory - Stock movements follow repeating wave patterns at all time scales, with 8-10% swings driven by retail panic and larger moves requiring top 1% holders to act - NVDA is Artificially Suppressed - Big institutional investors are keeping prices low to accumulate shares before "letting it rip to the sky" - Hardware Is Way Ahead of Infrastructure - RTX 5090 GPUs are bottlenecked by motherboards, CPUs, and power delivery that can't keep up with their capabilities (GPU memory: 2176GB/s vs PCIe connection: 53GB/s) - Inevitable Tech Refresh Coming - Entire PC ecosystem needs redesign to utilize existing chip power, creating massive demand for NVDA/AMD/TSMC products - Trifecta" Play - NVDA (design), AMD (competition), and TSMC (manufacturing) form an unbeatable combination positioned for a "jaw-dropping" rally Bottom Line: After 900+ hours of hardware testing/research, the author believes we're on the cusp of a new tech era where these three stocks will lead a "long-term rally" as software finally catches up to already-existing hardware capabilities. Note: This is highly speculative retail investor analysis with unconventional technical theories.
Everything is detailed in this. [https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vSxe0L7hdD9aZbIVqi3wBIm-M1KwoYEII-7rVYd5521A4cyjQVBBR6PTkiRCPwwVfwTtGNopVMVFfMz/pub](https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vSxe0L7hdD9aZbIVqi3wBIm-M1KwoYEII-7rVYd5521A4cyjQVBBR6PTkiRCPwwVfwTtGNopVMVFfMz/pub) TLDR : Just buy AMD NVDA and TSM until you're out of money\* \*not stock advice.
I'm long on TSMC. People don't seem to understand that no matter which AI chip is gaining momentum, be it Nvidia's GPU, or Google's TPU, or Broadcom's ASIC, or anyone else', all these chips are basically all made by TSMC, which is the real winner as long as the AI booms continue. It'd be illogical to have, say GOOG or AVGO, go up but TSM goes down.
GOOG, TSM and VRT took up sizable positions during the tariff dips back in April/May
lol good companies dont brag learned it the hard way lol (lost my life savings on TSM earnings last quarter) matter of fact they just presented the absolute crazy numbers like piece of cake
That is what I was saying, everyone is buying more forward on the others.(they are not as high as they were) Most were 50 to 100 as everyone was buying the AI Hype. And TSM has stayed in the range it always is around mid 20s. They have been growing consistently and a small premium is not bad, but production is maxed. I would expect TSM to start to climb soon. They have a few fabs opening or opened in 2025, and more through 2026 and 2027. And some will be EUV, at least 1 is only DUV. People may be more conservative with forward buying on TSM with the production operating at max capacity, which means no new money until new machines are up and running. All they can produce is 185 per hour from each EUV they have. There has been no reason for the stock to increase since they could not make more chips to sell. But I find it strange that everyone thinks TSM is so important, when AMSL is just as important. The only people that make the machines for them. AMSL also has an employee in each fab to keep the machines running, they are the only ones that can work on them. And there is another company that AMSL needs so they can keep building, Zeiss. Zeiss is a private company that AMSL bought 24.9% of, to keep the supply flowing. Intel new machines (2) and a 3rd coming soon, can produce over 200 per hour. The $350 million they spent on each are probably why their PE is so high. It will correct itself soon. Samsung will probably get their 1st High-NA EUV next and then possibly TSM. AMSL is hoping to be able to build 20 High-NA EUV per year by 2027. They were building 45 EUV per year, over 500 DUV And AMSL is already doing R&D on the Hyper-NA EUV, the next small chip. TLDR 🤣 sorry, I have been reading a lot lately. And all info is only about the Best chips, the chips people will do anything to get.
TSM would be hurt more than NVDA. TSM is still working on getting FABs setup that can produce 3-nm chips outside of Taiwan.
I would say all you listed although I think it will be a few days before some of the weird news gets clarified with MSFT. Regardless, the big boys will endure & add NVDA, CSCO & IBM to your list. Other don’t sells… TSM, ASML & AAPL.
Long SPY + puts on the typical AI stocks (NVDA, MU, CRWV, TSM...). Instead of buying puts you can make more sensible options strategies that will cost you less (with less protection, but can be rolled). Going long market / short AI companies will give you a cleaner hedge. Just shorting AI companies will essentially short the market, so you are exposed to many risks not AI related. Even better, long equal weight S&P500 ETF instead of plain SPY. It will give you better separation of AI from the rest of the market, since many AI names are the biggest companies in the index.
Ya with TSM nvidia goes to zero. Somehow ppl ignore that risk tho, while being cautious about TSM Annoying
Nobody can tell the future, but if you watch TSM, and find a new EUV or High-NA EUV being installed at a new fab, or expansion on an old fab, they will increase production, which SHOULD increase revenue. But it may take a while to recover from the money spent to make it happen. As in construction, real estate, and the $150 million EUV or $350 million High-NA EUV. It is a wait and see. Will people pay more for the forward or wait until the money is flowing. So right now, my guess, it will remains steady for a while longer. Intel is making deals now for their chips. They installed a High-NA EUV last year, now they have 2 working and another being installed. Originally for R&D, but they say they will sell to others now. 30,000 High-NA EUV chips already produced I know they have talked to Nvidia, rumor is Microsoft may have made an agreement, and others. Intel was the 1st to get a High-NA EUV, and they are the only company making them in the US. I believe AMSL is trying to work up to building 20 High-NA EUV machines a year. If you look at one, it takes a lot of shipments just to send the machine to a location, after the build it in their factory, test it, disassemble it, pack and ship it to the location, and finally reassemble it. Work that can only be done by AMSL and into a Clean Room, cleaner than a surgical room. The problem, everyone bought Intel over the last week, raising it 17%. And soon there will be another, better machine the Hyper-NA EUV. It will make them even smaller. It is still in development. And these machines are just the beginning of making a chip, many more steps after the wafer is made
Visa (V), Caterpillar (CAT), Waste Management (WM), PG, TSM, CSCO, VST, NFLX, and SOFI to name a few.
What happened to TSM? Micro invasion of Taiwan for a minute?
I don't like all these companies making chips, that's gonna end badly for most. Besides all the chips are made by TSM anyway. Reminds me of everyone chasing the ipod...lol
TSM is the risk to Nvidia, without TSM Nvidia is at a standstill, no more building out until they find a new chip manufacturer. Which is the reason they made a big investment in Intel.
Who cares about MSFT? Their copilot is shit. NVDA beat earnings, TSM bear earnings, fuk MSFT.
VRT and MU are showing some nice volatility contraction/recoil. That being said I'm already up 40% on one and 30% on another so will exit them soon. I got a few SLV leaps in the last few days which I plan to hold for the next few months. SLV has the cleanest setup I've seen in a while. I alsk have a few TSM monthlies to play the semis sector.
Thanks for the insight. I agree. Been long AMD and TSM for some years.
Nvidia have a good estimated EPS growth for next year but that will decline fast in the coming years. AMD is projected to accelerate their growth and surpass nvidia in growth from mid-2026. AMD is cheaper in forward PE and PEG for earnings from 2027 and onwards. TSM is traded higher in terms of PEG because they have a lower current valuation (higher OCF and FCF yield) and also deliver to broadcom and google, which makes it a less volatile investment. If broadcom or google takes market share from nvidia and AMD then TSM still wins.
We are talking about TSM, they are building in Arizona, Washington, Japan and Germany now. There are rare earth outside of China. Australia is growing mining also. Your hypothetical situation has little possibility of happening unless taiwan is invaded
That would make AMSL more important than TSM, if they do not have machines, TSM is useless.
But they do not need to buy another machine until they have another place to put it, or an old one fails. AMSL and TSM have limits to what they can produce in a year. So as long as they do not get more equipment to ramp up production, their stock price VALUE can not go up. Other than forward buying, which will hurt when someone cancels an order for whatever reason. As long as AMSL keeps their production numbers up, the TSM (and others) can continue to build new factories to put the machines in. The bottleneck can only be fixed by getting more machines set up in more locations. I would assume they already work around the clock in the factories.
Intel can do without them, but they can not replace them. They may produce a little slower but if TSM was gone, Intel and Samsung will be fine, but everyone else will be scrambling. Because Intel and Samsung could set up to build for themselves and stop selling to others to make up for the speed.
Whats funny is that if TSMC goes down, ALL semis go down (Heck even most of megacap tech goes down as well) Including Intel that also depends on them. The main reason TSM doesn’t have the other’s valuation is because of margins and capex. They like to maintain their good relationships, tho they can raise prices if they want to.
I'm confused where you are getting your PEGs? At least per Yahoo, TSM is at 1.4.... double that of NVDA and near triple of AMD. PEG is like golf - lower is better.
The answer is already here: geopolitical issues. TSM is investing in new fabs in Japan and Arizona to help mitigate those issues. However, their gross profit margins are going to take a hit in the near-term as a result. Coming with those new fabs is going to be expected 2-3% hits on margins from foreign exchange rates as well. Your thinking might prove correct in the long-term, but in the short-term they are priced pretty fairly at the moment with those concerns baked in.
Based on a quick google, it looks like the triniums are an inhouse design by Annapurna Labs, an Israeli chip company Amazon acquired in 2015... which are fabricated by TSM... using components supplied/made by MRVL?
NVDA is fabless, they dont make any of their GPU but still sell them under their brand. What TSM is to NVDA, MU is to CRSR. * **U.S. Market**: Corsair commanded a 45% share of the U.S. PC gaming components market. * **Gaming Memory (U.S.)**: For the same period, its market share in the gaming memory sector was 73%.
Why the F arent you guys buying space phones? Ive been in ASTS since it was with a SPAC. I bought the dips and loaded up at 2, 13, etc. 50 bucks? No problem. When this shit is a trillion dollar company becaise every person on the planet benefits from their tech, youll be kicking yourself. This is the next big thing and the best phone companies on the planet are making huge deals with them because this shit is the best tech going. When have I ever lead you wrong (well maybe a couple times but Im right more than wrong( When I told you to buy CCJ under $10 you guys ignored me. When I said US Steel has buyers lining up you guys were jacking it to Cliffs instead. I scooped up a bunch of TSM and AMD during the pandemic dip. I had Palantir the day it IPO'd. This sub sucks now its all bots, scammers, and apes since the gamestop shit.
$TSM sounds good until you realize China will be moving on Taiwan by 2030, high probability. Stock would crash like no other.
AI companies are not switching form CUDA and remaking their entire Ai infrastructure to then be reliant on their competitors. Also by some miracle if TPUs catch on, they run into the same bottleneck issue at TSM. This fantasy is not real.
TSM is great in the short term, terrible in the long term. Eventually there will be a semi-conductor bubble burst (like previous ones) and it will result in a massive surplus of indebted manufacturing tools. IMO great in 2 years, probably dead in 5 unless somehow the AI bubble continues for the next 5 years straight.
How is TSM a 1.5T market company a moonshot?
It took TSM years to get to that margin. Also Intel has to prove that 14A is comparable to the TSM process. The 18A yield is less than 50% from my understanding. 14A is on paper currently. They will have to aggressively price at low margins to build a foundry business over the next 5 years. This Apple rumor is nothing and if it pans out it will be as a small backup supplier in 2027, that’s being generous with timing. So many things have to go right. They won’t get gross margin to above 45% for at least 5 years, if ever.
NBIS perhaps TSM, depending on China.
Major Fab plant in Phoenix for TSM
QXO: The building materials space is highly fragmented and consolidation should boost margins through economies of scale. Plus the housing market is chronically undersupplied and in such a rough place there is likely some macro upside. TSM: They have a strong moat from the costs of entry and expertise necessary to enter the semiconductor fabric space. Great balance sheet and the ability to benefit from chip demand regardless of which company leads on the design front.
INTC jumping cuz they stole TSM trade secrects. Hilarious. Nana approved.
TSM suing them because they stole an employee, investors must think "Oh shit, Intel might figure out how to make this shit work"
it's pretty bullish for intel to get trade secrets from TSM, calls
I don't DCA. If I like a stock and I want to put X% of my portfolio into it, I'll buy 5000 shares right then. I bought AMD... which is a bad example because in the 70s, it was obvious. But I DO regret this one. AVGO. I caught that falling knife at 170 and I had an experiance CFA who I'm friends with who... pushed AVGO on me(he also pushed NVDA on me in 2019, so I listen) but he said just watch everything Trump's saying... and keep monitoring. So that's the ONE time recently I guess I did technically DCA. I bought 4750 shares at 170 and then at 140... I went back in for another 5,000... actually, 148. My 2nd is I NEVER follow through on my exit points and I'll often take off a stop-loss if I think it's stupid. Like NVDA... I bought 1500 in 2019, 1000 in 2023 and I said if if it got to 1000. Then I said... if it gets to 143, I'm out. Then it was 180, then 210... and I'm still holding and I got burned on this in '22 when it went from 325 to 120. Fuuck... I also have a 3rd. Since '22, I've been in NVDA, TSM, AVGO, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT and that's about 90% of my portfolio. I'm 100% of the people on here who does NOT think the AI bubble has even started and I'll 100% be the person on here talking about how I was going to retire and raise my kids so I didn't miss time with them and now... I'll be working until 60 like a regular poor. But seriously, 240, I'm taking 20,000 shares out of NVDA and just putting that aside into bonds. I'm only 39, but I don't... want to have to hear ethe "oh, you have time to make it up." I also just cannot sell after those earnings.
it’s a good time to buy MU and TSM
Micron and TSM if you want to avoid any uncertainty or cyclical effects
I hold the stock but you're right. If you compare any company to NVDA, everything is overvalued compared to it. The best semi plays are NVDA, TSM and semi equipment makers. There is no point trying to convince other people, it will never work, wait until next earnings releases for everything to unfold.
What do they sell? What is their moat? It seems that companies can spin up usable AI LLMs pretty quickly. I know reddit hates Elon, but he was able to bring Grok online very quickly, and it is a totally acceptable AI model for most applications. 3 years ago, this stuff felt like magic. Now every 3 months a different AI player is taking the crown. Currently Gemini is my personal favorite, but three months ago it was Grok, and a year ago it was ChatGPT. So, what is ChatGPT going to sell or create that makes them irreplaceable? They don't have a sticky ecosystem like Apple. They don't have a foothold in software like Microsoft. They don't produce the picks and shovels like NVidia, ASML, or TSM.
Are you in doubt? NVDA vs GOOG/AVGO? GPU vs TPU? No worries All in TSM
Trump negotiating deal with Taiwan. My TSM calls are saved !
Using my actual industry experience to speculate after looking up the die sizes and manufacturing processes used. Treating the manufacturing of both chips as equivalent is a mistake and TSM doesn't have the monopoly you think they do.. but that gets in the weeds. They do have a monopoly on a very specific subset of chip, significant capacity, and a cost competetive geography. I don't think TSM is a bad investment. I just think the thesis of the thread is incorrect. "Hurr durr Google selling more tpus is good for TSM even if they take nvidia market share." Different products don't produce the same revenue and some products have to be competitively bid to avoid losing them to competition. Will TSM be higher in 10 years than today? As long as China doesn't invade and the fab lines destroyed.. then yes.
No mention of TSM or ASML? Cute graph I guess..
TSM has said no to increasing capacity. If you can't massively scale your stock doesn't grow.
TSM is down because MSCI index adjustment reduced its weighting. Everyone and their false news. This led to lots of funds adjusting to match it and hence lots of outflows.
Amazon, MU, AVGO, TSM, ARM, VRT
TSM’s the AI chip backbone which Google/Nvidia wins = TSM wins, market’s just being short-sighted!