TSM

cowboynude

I cannot fathom rotation out of AI. The genuinely revolutionary nature of this technology is magnitudes more powerful than wars, natural disasters, sketchy IPOs, etc. You don’t have to think Pets.com will survive 2000 but you have to see the internet will. I see AI the same way. I don’t want to own any AI companies but I want to own all the companies that will inevitably sell to whoever the inevitable winner is. I am personally comfortable with the weight already given to QQQ’s main holdings in more diversified index funds like VOO and even VT. I already own Nvidia and TSM and Google thru VT. Buying QQQ is just doubling down on hyperscalers, only one or two of whom will survive. That’s not even getting into the bad valuation around SoaceX (although I very bullish on SpaceX long term). And then with my satellite I am personally comfortable ally more comfortable with avoiding the American market entirely and betting directly on continued AI capex thru 2029 on ASML. 80/20 VT/ASML

Maximum-Cash7103

Google. NBIS. RBRK. TSM. AVGO. Riskier APLD/SMCI. AMLX pharm is a good one. Walmart. Please stop throwing away cash being greedy.

shortyrocker

Google, TSM, GEV

Visible_Ad_2271

Can someone tell me if I ended up green on the day: port in that order: Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, TSM, Meta, Berkshire, Jpm, Visa, novo, unh

Therecanbenopeace

TSM at ath by end tomorrow plz k thnx byeeeee

ObviousDoxx

SNDK, NBIS, TSM, NVDA all up And you’re not buying MU?

Outside-Cow9097

TSM is like peak Rock WWF attitude era

No_Current3675

Nah bro it’s all in good fun.  I’ll consider MRVL profits when I’m up 25-50%. MU already took a lot and holding the rest until 1500 likely. ASML took a lot and holding remainder until 2000. KLAC never selling, it’s going to absolutely fly after the split. NVDA perpetual hold. TSM too. Smaller semis will have to consider it as we go. Been buying more and more metals, software, and boomer shit as a counterbalance. Holding $500K cash.

Quienmemandovenir

Today, with the Avgo Seel-off I started +4. I soldl part of Avgo, MU and TSM and put all in Goog, now I'm +7. Goog is the new Gold.

wkgko

Buy some NVDA, you're part of the hype but also a reasonable long term investor. Its forward PE is more normal than that of other semis except maybe TSM.

filthimartini

Semis fucked If this move holds into tomorrow and doesn’t reverse, AVGO, NVDA, TSM, INTC, AMD, MU, and TXN are gonna pull down the index. If the index starts moving meaningfully and VIX responds we could be looking at a -2% day on SPX into end of day.

aniote

Split 90% of your life savings between TSM and GOOG, hold 10 years, I'll only ask for 1% of your gains or an evening with your wife as a thank you

odubik

this is the right answer. The company would be valued much higher if not for the perennial threat of China invading Taiwan. Also, Taiwan has legislated that TSM is not allowed to build their best chips outside of Taiwan, so the company is essentially acting as a deterrent against China as well -- as US/Japan/Europe would HAVE to protect Taiwan or risk losing access to the chips. Basically, it is locked in a chip cold war with the potential for mutually assured destruction.

Dickies138

I have a decent amount of AMD and am starting to wonder if it’s overvalued, but I still feel like TSM is the most undervalued in this space and continue to buy shares

SnooHedgehogs5162

Its not priced in. US has no access to SK hynix. Europeans buying it at the moment. US listing happening in June. For US penion fonds it will be like TSM stock

Josepth_Blowsepth

I’ll sell you some ATM TSM calls. Not cheap. My baby has hell of a coke habit

Mountain-Candidate92

This is not investment advice but these are the stocks that I am looking at. The price per share listed is today's closing price. AI Infrastructure & Cooling Vertiv Holdings (VRT): $331.44 per share [1.3:1] Modine Manufacturing (MOD): $302.03 per share [1.4:1] Ecolab (ECL): $255.67 per share [1.5:1] Semiconductors & Hardware Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. (TSM): $436.69 per share [1.6:1] Micron Technology (MU): $1,079.57 per share [2.2:1] STMicroelectronics (STM): $79.71 per share [2.3:1] SpaceX Supply Chain & Aerospace Filtronic (FLTCF): $3.99 per share [2.4:1] Redwire (RDW): $18.62 per share [2.5:1] Materion Corp (MTRN): $228.52 per share [3.2:1] High-risk, high-reward "pure speculative" play POET Technologies (POET): $15.38 per share

kush4lifebroo

my buddy’s TSM tanked right after earnings once

iiGoodVibesii

TSM has just been on self drive for the past year and half. Simple.

Trashpanda7193

If MU / Sandisk / TSM drills like fuck tomorrow I’m buying

One_Artichoke7873

Honestly, I’d sell TSM and put the funds elsewhere. It’ll go down massively when China invades.

One_Artichoke7873

Honestly, I’d sell TSM and put the funds elsewhere. It’ll go down massively when China invades.

SuffiecientSapian

Kinda but during those times MRVL was legit hemorrhaging money but I’m a fucking retard and can’t hold. I had DELL at $115 MU and MRVL at $85 Palo Alto at $140 TSM at $125 just to name a few. However I guys doubled my account in 4 days and also debt free now so I guess I can’t be bitching

Fibocrypto

Taiwan Semicndctr Mnufctrng Co Ltd NYSE: TSM Follow 446.69 USD +11.06 How do you come up with 800 ?

Paradisity

TSM > all of these tickers

f4h6

TSM it manufacture every chip

Xzlk

TSM is actually incapable of servicing Jensens demand. He wants them to 10x production and they literally can’t do it. He’d happily pay the higher price at this point. I’m positive they have raised prices. Just saying it should probably be even more lol

tomgreen99200

Everyone already knows TSM

venu_18

I think the most overlooked "shovels" are the boring bottlenecks. Everyone knows NVDA, TSM, MU, and VRT now. Fewer people pay attention to things like substrates, power distribution, transformers, switchgear, specialty chemicals, and cooling components. My only caution is that a lot of these second- and third-order plays have much weaker links to AI demand than the market assumes. Sometimes a "hidden AI play" is just a cyclical industrial company with a nice AI narrative attached to it.

Working-Active

AVGO is up almost $30 in premarket. Good luck with Marvell in getting all of the necessary components to build whatever is ordered and getting it built by TSM.

ashjohnr

I don't think these directly track those indices, but they come close: Korea: EWY Taiwan: EWT For Taiwan specifically, just buying TSM is sufficient.

WorkingCorrect1062

market is now in euphoria phase, TSM is too big for nvidia to have an effect haha.

Focux

Jensen has mentioned TSM before, I don’t see a pump like these

Forward-Surprise1192

Yeah so I invest in typical stuff but also have separate money I put towards individual stocks. That separate money was the best choice I ever made. 6 years ago I saw Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) at about $45 a share or something and now that shit is $450 so you see my point? These also are not shaky or even really risky companies imo. TSM….yes sadly cause China but most others it’s a no and you are mostly safe. You can Google any tech company and understand why that is lol. There’s a lot of companies you can do and while luck is involved, the current stock markets if you put $100 in a tech company, next month you will have $120$-$150. Aim to grow it 1% a day as well and even selling calls or puts or buying them is worth it. Take $1,000 one time in life and after studying up on it try buying options. I can go on but this a lot already. Only disclaimer is that I’m constantly hearing people worrying about a drawback soon and stocks may drop.

nonother

More bullish for TSM than NVDA.

Rocky_The_Champion

We’re seeing the bubble pop before our eyes. The short squeeze in software is ready to sell off again, mega cap no longer holding up, and then comes semis. Names like Qualcomm will go first, then the AMDs/INTC and NVDA TSM last. But the biggest bag holders will be in DRAM.

fruitsandveggies05

Quite a few (I have a lot of micron, AMD and TSM haha). Oh well. Thanks for the recommendation to use thetaedge- I’ll check it out

Trashpanda7193

That controlled slide from TSM wtf

dapi331

OPEN & TSM long term. OKLO, SMR short term (data center energy). I bought these instead of FCEL & BE because of daily technicals alone.

Senior_Section_423

For this week I'm in on PD, RDW, HPE, BKSY, ABTS, GDYN and FLNC. a few other too. I'm embarrassed to say I have bit of TSM that I bought at the high today.

Ok_Gift_9264

TSM is up 5%

Indra_Sx

Sold my $TSM $440 for $4.25, now worth 15 😓😓😓 im such a pussy

raorbit

TSM going crazy

davidbigham

TSM up 7 % holy fk

diamond12923

TSM is crazy lol

jrlandry

\+6.3% on TSM is pure sex

jrlandry

TSM is the greatest company of all time

rocier

TSM always fucks me

jrlandry

TSM having itself a day my goly

Focux

TSM is still not expensive even tonight, not “cheap” but def not expensive like other names considering the monopoly they have

ohboy_ohboy_3am

TSM Lets fucking GOOOOOOO

Indra_Sx

Didn’t think $TSM would hit $440 today. Wish I held my call

Indra_Sx

$TSM call I sold at open for $4.25 just doubled 😢😢

Paradisity

Sure. And soon their 3nm foundries are going to be completely cash flow positive with bigger margins, but TSM’s main focus and moat is on the bleeding edge

ez399017

Just sold my TSM to buy more

RainieY

Not everything is insanely overpriced. NVDA is sueper cheap. META is cheap, MU is a hard one to predict but it will likely stabilize around 1200$-1600$, the ratios are still low. TSM is probably cheap, AMD is fair value, if they execute well, it could reach 2 trillion, they double dip in CPUs and GPUs. Since market is still growing, everyone is winning. I just don't see a single capex estimate that doesn't say capex will grow significantly at least until 2030, very hard to lose.

Maximum-Cash7103

TSM, Google, and NBIS are why I’m going to retire early

Paradisity

Samsung is no where close to the fabrication tech. TSM and Samsung can both make automotive chips. Only TSM can make HPC hips. What I meant is that TSM is not an online darling. It's in the space where everything has run up, but it hasn't received an extreme re-rating or corresponding surge. Once we see the margins in the earnings call in June, we could see a big upswing. The way this could happen is if TSM continues to refine their process to increase viable wafer usage (in which they are already a global leader), and or if they squeeze buyers due to the intense demand of 2nm. With Amazon, Google, and NVIDIA all buying these chips, and the insane build outs in AI training and Capex commitments in AI spending in the next year alone, I think we may see the demand get so high that they can justify moving the margins up. They're careful to flood the market with chips though, which is very interesting--they wait for the investment and commitments from big players before building out new fabrication plants, which they can do incredibly fast (both in Taiwan and abroad).

jaajaajaa6

You have a lot of duplicate stocks across these accounts. Nothing prevents you from selling a piece, especially the ones that have had a great run. Just remember, the first AI hiccup and many high fliers will give a lot back. Nothing wrong with selling 1/3 or so of a TSM or ASML and playing with house money.

looool_k_libtard

Selling Google and TSM to load up on a random profitless company

illinformed-will

Did you miss the positive revenue part ? 99% of fabs are used for internal Intel is priced for the potential of having external customers like aapl and other chip designers with huge volume making orders AND a pricing power because they would be a better source than TSM (Taiwan or maybe in many years better yields and packaging if ever) Market is very forward looking at the moment on intc, as for a lot of semis stocks. If US hadn't backed it and lobbyied for chips companies to consider, that run would not have happened. The NVDA stake was a nice vote of confidence yes but dreams and grift made the heavy lifting.

P166MMX

No, TSM is the Taiwan strait. And closing that particular strait would look like a stock split of 2:1.

Ziegelmarkt

***If I were to venture a guess,*** I'd say it's contract related. (THESE NUMBERS ARE JUST FOR EXAMPLE) We don't know the details of the deals but say NVDA and AMD contract an order for, say 1,000,000 chips a piece and those 2,000,000 chips create a 2 year backlog. NVDA and AMD lock in their rate. Meanwhile NVDA and AMD continue to take orders from their customers in 50-100,000 chip increments. So as their inventory starts to get whittled down they progressively increase their prices which increases their margins and revenue. Meanwhile TSM is sitting there pouting because they didn't charge enough for those batches this time around and will during the next orders.

Ass-Pissing

It’s already worth $2 trillion. You’re not the only one who understands that China is all talk. $TSM doesn’t even dip even a little bit when China does one of their “military exercises”.

familymed786

TSM is what I'm all in on, kinda wished I chose MU instead. I don't get why TSM isn't increasing like the others

MaxEhrlich

All the regular AI tech bullshit and some energy. MU was the big hitter for me as well as ARM and TSM. Then you add in TE OKLO and BE, plus some drone shit in ONDS and RCAT. Hints of SOXX and EWY, AAOI ANKR and some other random photonics whatever the fucks buys and sells and here I am.

voyager_warp10

GOOG and TSM looks to be the top contribution in both brokerage and Roth. So tech heavy on those, but good scripts for long term, I am not sure abt your overall percentages. Looks decent, as long as you ensure it doesn’t go too heavy (I keep a cap at 20% irrespective of what or when - but that’s just my risk appetite, each for their own).

Jerikolol

dont u PUT on my NVDA AVGO and TSM beotch 😠

TopCut237

> First, and most importantly, the geopolitical risk from China is overweighted, and currently suppresses TSM’s valuation in a meaningful way. Whether or not we agree on this point, why should the markets ever change their mind? Especially with China developing a stronger and stronger military every year? TSMC isn't a value trap, but the dynamic you opened with is exactly what makes a value trap. Added value that you can see and the rest of the world doesn't. What's set to trigger their epiphany?

North-Purple-373

TSM is a great business. I own it. That said, it’s always traded a discount to its fair value due to the geopolitical risk. It’s a great investment but don’t expand the multiple to re-rate anytime soon. The China threat won’t go away and while it’s low likelihood they invade in the next decade, it’s not zero.

Paradisity

This is a really great point. I looked into this further too. When China conducted its largest military exercises around Taiwan in decades following the Pelosi visit in 2022 with live fire drills encircling the island, TSM fell approximately 3% and recovered. The market has already stress-tested this risk and answered it.

Ill_Marzipan_609

china dont care. that risk will always be there (i hold TSM)

Paradisity

Space is a genuine emerging demand driver for advanced chips, but it's not yet a significant TSMC revenue line in the way AI is. Space industry's move toward commercial scale (Starlink, Amazon Kuiper, the EU's Iris 2) represents an entirely new category of chip demand that didn't exist meaningfully five years ago. As those constellations scale and require more sophisticated onboard compute, they'll eventually need leading-edge nodes, which is TSM's category. Space X has spoken about making a fab plant in Austin, TX, but I find it unlikely they'll have much success ramping it up to speed in time (such was the case with Intel). This represents a possible tailwind near the 3-5 year point of my thesis.

Paradisity

If China takes Taiwan, the entire stock market will crash, not just TSM.

Paradisity

When China conducted its largest military exercises around Taiwan in decades following the Pelosi visit in 2022 with live fire drills encircling the island, TSM fell approximately 3% and recovered. The market has already stress-tested this risk and answered it.

Paradisity

When China conducted its largest military exercises around Taiwan in decades following the Pelosi visit in 2022 with live fire drills encircling the island, TSM fell approximately 3% and recovered. The market has already stress-tested this risk and answered it.

SugarDaddyVA

I agree with your premise, but with their expansion and building of fabrication plants in the US, TSM is diversifying that risk away.   It’s only a matter of time before the China risk becomes irrelevant.  The longer China waits to invade (if they do at all), the less likely the company will be tremendously impacted.  So trim to take profits sure, that’s absolutely necessary, but I’m glad you’re continuing to hold some.  

Mitche420

Same bro. Sold SPCE for a loss 2 weeks ago and spent over an hour studying RCAT at the same time and pussied out of buying any so I could put my money into AVGO and TSM instead

Ziegelmarkt

MU and AMD are fine for at least 18-36 months. SNDK needs a 10:1 split to lure in more retail investors who balk at $1700. TSM? TSM is ***\_THEE\_*** global benchmark but their chart is goofy. It looks like a bunny jumping up a hill which will lure you in to wanting to time it, but just buy whenever you are ready.

A55BAG

I think NVDA might announce a CPU for PC next week, or a some kind of device with ARM processor. Long NVDA, ARM, TSM, DRAM and short AMD, could be the way to play it 🤔. INTC and QCOM would be losers too, but those stocks are too hyped and they could also announce new products, so dangerous to short. [https://x.com/nvidia/status/2060390710797328574](https://x.com/nvidia/status/2060390710797328574)

ADespianTragedy

Where did you get the info that TSM didn't attract enough retail investments? Like you are saying that a vast majority of it it's just institutional? I would be curious to see how much vs other stocks that went up recently.

Todayjunyer

TSM is a very efficient and well run company. Intel is also a very good company. As for stocks, TSM has never been off its all time high for 20 straight years.

yakuzademon893

Yes it is $TSM

Yee4614

Haha, I just bought TSM and had the exact same thoughts as you. However, I did like 5% instead of 30%

Original-Apricot-288

interesting narrative and I was looking at TSM for same reasons. I have two issues with moving 30% in this company. **-** Samsung just signed a $16.5B foundry deal with Tesla (2025–2033) for its AI6 chips. That's the only credible near-term threat to the moat narrative and it goes unaddressed. It doesn't break your thesis, but that makes me nervous. **-** Also I dont think retail is missing on this trade, TSM is already up \~107% over 12 months. I think the retail wave has largely arrived. Is this a trade for you or long term position ?

TieVisible3422

I have family in Taiwan and the ETFs for the local companies that supply TSM have grown even faster than TSM itself. It is like buying a leveraged TSM but without increasing any risk. It is the easiest money there is to make, but there is no way to buy these if you are not Taiwanese. The entire Taiwanese economy is being lifted by TSM. The GDP of Taiwan grew by almost 9% last year, which is insane for a developed country.

Paradisity

Moore's Law has effectively plateaued but this actually strengthens the TSM thesis. As shrinking transistors becomes physically harder, the value shifts from printing smaller chips to packaging, interconnects, and advanced integration. TSM owns this space too. Their advanced packaging revenue is growing faster than their core foundry business. The complexity of modern chip design now requires capabilities that only TSM has at scale. Not just the fab, but the entire ecosystem around it. The plateau expands TSM's relevance. The path to better performance still runs directly through TSM, just in three dimensions instead of two.

Impressive_Order60

The china risk for TSM is not invasion jts stealing. They poach people and expertise and hack and point 1-3 of OPs reasons why TSM is undervalued are gone.

Ozqi

$MSFT, $ARM, $TSM. Free money. Buy it now or I’ll fucking beat you up

Paradisity

Fair point. It should get better once pension funds, etfs, are able to buy more easily. 168 ETFs currently hold TSM, so institutional access via the ADR route is already substantial. Every major semiconductor ETF, emerging markets ETF, and most broad technology ETFs hold TSM already. In addition, the Taiwan-listed shares trade at a \~19x 2026 forward PE versus \~22x for the ADR, suggesting the underlying fundamentals are even more attractive than the NYSE price implies.

Sstraus-1983

Not good for USA economic security to have most manafacturing done there. TSM won’t bring latest nodes to states. That’s why we have Intel manufacturing chips. AMD is the Taiwan shield company. And have nowhere anywhere near the CPU market share that INTC has in data centers and pc’s. 70%-30%. Don’t see the fanboy hype. And don’t tell me their chips are better than Intel now because that’s false. Too much risk with AMD for a long Sanctions or tariffs geopolitics

PooPooPointBoiz

Fucking christ dude. TSM literally was within spitting distance of my break even price. Then it fucking shit the bed again and I'm down 500 dollars again. In the span of 20 minutes. GOD FUCKING DAMNIT

PooPooPointBoiz

Wtf TSM you fuck. Go back to 420 so I can exit out of this BS.

PooPooPointBoiz

Ok TSM we're not fucking homies anymore. Dumping from 420 to the 417's literally the moment I buy in is not fucking cool. FUCK MY LIFE

PooPooPointBoiz

Bruh. TSM dipped so I bought the dip. Average cost of 420.10 and now it's just dipping. I'm down like 500 bucks on this BS in the span of 15 minutes.

PooPooPointBoiz

Fucking Lol dude. I buy into TSM at an average cost of 419.5 and it immediately dumps to 417.5 What the fuck dude. I literally cannot fucking win.

Therecanbenopeace

Starting to think TSM is massively undervalued and good for a play.

amazingfishy

TSM !

Hugheston987

Question is, what do I sell to buy it. I've got MU, TSM, AMD, and Nokia.

Banned3rdTimesaCharm

I’m with you, I hope greed wins out and not authoritarian desperation. I own some TSM. China just seems unhealthily obsessed with the idea.