TSM

Maleficent_Split6920

AI companies are not switching form CUDA and remaking their entire Ai infrastructure to then be reliant on their competitors. Also by some miracle if TPUs catch on, they run into the same bottleneck issue at TSM. This fantasy is not real.

hollow_bridge

TSM is great in the short term, terrible in the long term. Eventually there will be a semi-conductor bubble burst (like previous ones) and it will result in a massive surplus of indebted manufacturing tools. IMO great in 2 years, probably dead in 5 unless somehow the AI bubble continues for the next 5 years straight.

WickedSensitiveCrew

How is TSM a 1.5T market company a moonshot?

SpongEWorTHiebOb

It took TSM years to get to that margin. Also Intel has to prove that 14A is comparable to the TSM process. The 18A yield is less than 50% from my understanding. 14A is on paper currently. They will have to aggressively price at low margins to build a foundry business over the next 5 years. This Apple rumor is nothing and if it pans out it will be as a small backup supplier in 2027, that’s being generous with timing. So many things have to go right. They won’t get gross margin to above 45% for at least 5 years, if ever.

Tempariar

NBIS perhaps TSM, depending on China.

Emergency_Gold_9347

Major Fab plant in Phoenix for TSM

SlanderousSalamander

QXO: The building materials space is highly fragmented and consolidation should boost margins through economies of scale. Plus the housing market is chronically undersupplied and in such a rough place there is likely some macro upside. TSM: They have a strong moat from the costs of entry and expertise necessary to enter the semiconductor fabric space. Great balance sheet and the ability to benefit from chip demand regardless of which company leads on the design front.

Morocier

INTC jumping cuz they stole TSM trade secrects. Hilarious. Nana approved.

Mean-Evidence-4056

TSM suing them because they stole an employee, investors must think "Oh shit, Intel might figure out how to make this shit work"

Viktri1

it's pretty bullish for intel to get trade secrets from TSM, calls

FinishWarm1746

TSM not fucking around 

Upstairs_Whole_580

I don't DCA. If I like a stock and I want to put X% of my portfolio into it, I'll buy 5000 shares right then. I bought AMD... which is a bad example because in the 70s, it was obvious. But I DO regret this one. AVGO. I caught that falling knife at 170 and I had an experiance CFA who I'm friends with who... pushed AVGO on me(he also pushed NVDA on me in 2019, so I listen) but he said just watch everything Trump's saying... and keep monitoring. So that's the ONE time recently I guess I did technically DCA. I bought 4750 shares at 170 and then at 140... I went back in for another 5,000... actually, 148. My 2nd is I NEVER follow through on my exit points and I'll often take off a stop-loss if I think it's stupid. Like NVDA... I bought 1500 in 2019, 1000 in 2023 and I said if if it got to 1000. Then I said... if it gets to 143, I'm out. Then it was 180, then 210... and I'm still holding and I got burned on this in '22 when it went from 325 to 120. Fuuck... I also have a 3rd. Since '22, I've been in NVDA, TSM, AVGO, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT and that's about 90% of my portfolio. I'm 100% of the people on here who does NOT think the AI bubble has even started and I'll 100% be the person on here talking about how I was going to retire and raise my kids so I didn't miss time with them and now... I'll be working until 60 like a regular poor. But seriously, 240, I'm taking 20,000 shares out of NVDA and just putting that aside into bonds. I'm only 39, but I don't... want to have to hear ethe "oh, you have time to make it up." I also just cannot sell after those earnings.

Valueandgrowthare

it’s a good time to buy MU and TSM

Valueandgrowthare

Micron and TSM if you want to avoid any uncertainty or cyclical effects

wearahat03

I hold the stock but you're right. If you compare any company to NVDA, everything is overvalued compared to it. The best semi plays are NVDA, TSM and semi equipment makers. There is no point trying to convince other people, it will never work, wait until next earnings releases for everything to unfold.

Sailor_Thrift

What do they sell? What is their moat? It seems that companies can spin up usable AI LLMs pretty quickly. I know reddit hates Elon, but he was able to bring Grok online very quickly, and it is a totally acceptable AI model for most applications. 3 years ago, this stuff felt like magic. Now every 3 months a different AI player is taking the crown. Currently Gemini is my personal favorite, but three months ago it was Grok, and a year ago it was ChatGPT. So, what is ChatGPT going to sell or create that makes them irreplaceable? They don't have a sticky ecosystem like Apple. They don't have a foothold in software like Microsoft. They don't produce the picks and shovels like NVidia, ASML, or TSM.

mneymaker

Are you in doubt? NVDA vs GOOG/AVGO? GPU vs TPU? No worries All in TSM

FinishWarm1746

Trump negotiating deal with Taiwan. My TSM calls are saved !

Ctofaname

Using my actual industry experience to speculate after looking up the die sizes and manufacturing processes used. Treating the manufacturing of both chips as equivalent is a mistake and TSM doesn't have the monopoly you think they do.. but that gets in the weeds. They do have a monopoly on a very specific subset of chip, significant capacity, and a cost competetive geography. I don't think TSM is a bad investment. I just think the thesis of the thread is incorrect. "Hurr durr Google selling more tpus is good for TSM even if they take nvidia market share." Different products don't produce the same revenue and some products have to be competitively bid to avoid losing them to competition. Will TSM be higher in 10 years than today? As long as China doesn't invade and the fab lines destroyed.. then yes.

afooltobesure

No mention of TSM or ASML? Cute graph I guess..

AgeFew3109

TSM

re-thc

TSM has said no to increasing capacity. If you can't massively scale your stock doesn't grow.

re-thc

TSM is down because MSCI index adjustment reduced its weighting. Everyone and their false news. This led to lots of funds adjusting to match it and hence lots of outflows.

JustBrowsinAndVibin

Amazon, MU, AVGO, TSM, ARM, VRT

Doyouekoms

TSM’s the AI chip backbone which Google/Nvidia wins = TSM wins, market’s just being short-sighted!

-B-H-

TSM 3/20 barely OTM call. It’s gotta print if any AI is printing

Consistent_Log_3040

and still its market cap is smaller then goog or nvda or broadcom or meta with a historically high pe ratio. I know its a good company I know last year around 60% of the worlds chips underwent some form of fabrication process through TSM and an even higher percentage of high end chips went through TSM I also know its at a frothy valuation and anything less then perfect could implode the stock. I've been investing in it for years and am very happy with its results but lets not let feelings take hold of investments.

palendin123

predictions: Google 370 by EOY Nvidia 220 by EOY PLTR 190 by EOY IREN 71 by EOY AMD 230 by EOY TSM 340 by EOY SP500 7000 by EOY zero risk market

Much_Candle_942

Or, Apple happens to be TSM's biggest customer.

DandadanAsia

People are too dumb to know TSM makes shovels for shovel designers.

banditcleaner2

Alright here we go, I'll play ball. OP said "So why google up based on meta news and TSM down?" And you responded with, "Because google sells infinite lemonade at an expensive restaurant with the finite lemons they buy from tsm." sounds good. that was 3 hours ago. If this is the case, why is TSM now going back up when your entire theory hasn't changed in the last 3 hours? Go ahead and tell me how I'm wrong. If your theory was so rock solid on why TSM was down this morning, why is it about to close green, einstein.

Unlucky_Picture_6937

TSM down because US and China discussing the future of Taiwan

banditcleaner2

Both of you are stupid, and both of you have no idea why TSM is down today. Nobody really knows.

r2002

TSM's best fabs make Nvidia GPUs, and gets the highest margin from them. TSM's older fabs make TPUs, and gets less margin from them. It's like say your distillery makes two types of Whiskey -- premium and generic. Margins are higher on the premium. You used to sell 99% premium and 1% generic to the town. One day, people figured out the generic is pretty good, and demand shifts a bit to generic. Now 90% buy premium and 10% buy generic. While both the premium and generic buyers bought whiskey from your distillery, you're overall making less money. Also, while the premium whiskey can only be made by your distillery, the generic kind can be made by anybody. So there's a risk that if the generic got popular enough someone else in the area will start getting that business.

beachandbyte

I agree TSM wins no matter what unless China invades and at least from my perspective every one of these chips from all the companies will sell out. So now it’s about watching who is stealing TSM production share.

ChillMeerkat

TSM is probably the best value play right now. Just look at their numbers. And they are a monopoly. They have no real competitors. Samsung, intel are far far behind. They are already fully booked until 2028. Keep buying especially when they are on sale.

FrenchieChase

The market is pricing in uncertainty around what a possible change in demand could mean for TSM. The unit economics for TPUs =/= the unit economics for GPUs. The margins could be very different based on the difference in nodes, whether CoWoS remains a bottleneck, etc. Assuming all of that remains the same, you still have uncertainty around the number of TPUs required vs the number of GPUs required for similar workloads. In simple terms, can 1 TPU do the same job as 3 GPUs for certain workloads? These are all things that Wall Street needs to consider, and investors hate uncertainty.

Ctofaname

Margins bro. Not everything TSM produces are at the same margin or equally complex and monopolized.

kraken2b

Here is my take: 1) NVDA is leading in semis industry and semis ETF and major holdings of these ETFs due to largest market cap. Thus any bad news and selloff of NVDA, you will see collateral damage to other semis due to ETFs selloff. 2) the 2330.TW (TW exchange orginial TSM) hasn't rebound as much as TSM in Tuesday. 2330.TW generally trade with more volume and has lower volatility than its counterpart TSM ADR. 2330.TW generally swing up and down more slowly than TSM, and TSM's price is linked to 2330.TW by about 1.23 to 1.25 premium after converting spot forex rate. So TSM experience slight pull back after today TW exchange. 3) Japan Rapidus plans to setup its 2nd plants and will start producing 2nm chips in 2027 something, joining TSM, Samsung, INTC to be the 4th foundries. But likely it will face yield issue just like Samsung, INTC. So new competitor to the game, TSM will see some margin squeeze, and weak hand will sell off.

A_Portuguese_Man

As Nvidia's margins go down (due to revenue share with Google as you pointed out), there will be less cash flow overall to pay for increasing prices at TSM. NVIDIA enjoyed hefty margins before and could sustain, and maybe even motivated the price bumps that TSM has been throwing around lately. There will be less of that as margins go down upstream.  In other words, TSM might be penalised if both of its costumers are still purchasing the same 100 chips but with lower margins on their business, as they have less cash to throw around.

auradragon1

Cool. So why Google up based on Meta news and TSM down?

MindfulK9Coach

This. Nobody knows the real picks and shovels dealers for AI and it shows. TSM and ASML should be booming. Without them, these advanced chips dont see the light of day.

Cynical_Doggie

Because TSM is selling lemons. Stock price is based on future growth potential. TSM can only pump out so many chips. There is a finite limit to the amount of profit they can make.

drakevibes

TSM is still up 50% this year

DrB00

I think Google still has its silicon made by TSM. So they're still kind of in the single company situation.

Ble_h

Semi dumping is comical. Retard analyst don’t seem to understand that you still need memory and TSM to build the actual thing.

azian0713

Read it. You’re literally asking why GOOG is up and TSM is down if GOOG needs to manufacture their TPUs at TSM. You’re trying to posit the argument that the correlation between TSMs revenue stream and GOOG’s potential revenue stream through the manufacturing of TPUs should cause them to move in tandem. Correlation doesn’t equal causation.

auradragon1

Cool. So why is TSM down on this news?

auradragon1

Yes. I wrote about this in OP. I don't think it's a bear signal for Nvidia. Nvidia is literally sold out. Anyways, it doesn't answer the question of why TSM is down.

auradragon1

Then here's a tip to r/stocks members: Buy TSM. You all hang out here for stock insights right? Buy TSM. Google is makes 100% of their chips at TSMC. Period. End of story.

balke

How is TSM red right now? Aren't they part of the Google chain?

Ok-Buy-9777

TSM, but indirectly ASML especially if TSM starts mass building new fabs

EightFolding

This is not a major threat to NVDA, market reaction is mainly noise (and overreaction). AMD is slightly more vulnerable because Google's TPUs compete in the same space they were targeting (inference workloads), but AMD still has MSFT and ORCL partnerships. And NVDA has AMZN, MSFT, TSLA, ORCL, and OpenAI partnerships. AVGO is definitely a winner here, and TSM continues to win as always. I'm not changing my weighting on any of them in response. Custom silicon has always been on the horizon, all the hyperscalers are building their own chips so this isn't new. NVDA was never going to be a long-term monopoly, hence their diversified business, but they still win near and mid term on the software moat (CUDA), training, adoption, networking and full stack integration, etc.

callsonreddit

ChatGPT said TSM MU

wontonforevuh

Who produces Google’s chips? TSM?

sweeetscience

Google also gets their chips from TSM.

Ble_h

True but earnings for TSM is over. AVGO is next month so we can gamble on it.

makeammends

TSM

FrenchieChase

There is so much misunderstanding from the retail investor regarding tech right now it’s insane. Granted there is a lot of froth in the market, but there is real opportunity for the true AI winners. Long GOOG, AMZN, and TSM

rickny0

TSM is the primary manufacturer of Google AI chips. Broadcom contributes to the design. The chips themselves come from TSM. AI summary: Broadcom is a fabless semiconductor company that designs chips (Application-Specific Integrated Circuits, or ASICs) for customers like Google, which owns the intellectual property for the Tensor Processing Units (TPUs). TSMC is the world's largest contract chip manufacturer (a foundry). It fabricates the physical chips that Broadcom designs, as well as chips for many other companies including Nvidia and Apple.

greenpride32

It isn't just about past performance - it is about what constitutes both indices. The top weights of SP500 are dominated by high growth companies - the ones that tend to move the indices up. The top weights of VXUS are majority mature companies. You have a company such as Nestle as top weight. Nestle is a great company and would have returned you a small ransom over decades of time. But they are no longer a company that can carry an index. Then you have some banks, big pharma etc - nice returns, but mature and not outsized returns. So my analysis is way beyond simple surface layer. AZN, SAP and NVS aren't outpacing NVDA MSFT AMZN GOOGL META BRKa/b NFLX. VXUS only has TSM as a top weight outsized return.

MathTutorAndCook

Am I wrong to own a little bit of RDDT, AMZN, AAPL, TSM, GOOGL

rickny0

Broadcom helps design them but TSM builds them.

rickny0

TSM makes Google’s chips too. People think of TSM as paired with NVDA but if NVDA is under pressure in part because Gemini doesn’t used NVDA chips, TSM shouldn’t be. They make them all.

Humbash

TSM AVGO AMD laughing at NVDA

nycmuin

I also have a similar position in TSM, I am holding - demand for and production of chips aren't slowing down anytime soon.

Plus_Seesaw2023

Why not ?!? The same people said the same thing about BTC when it was at $45,000!!! The same people also said the same thing about NVDA when the stock was at $50! The same people said the same thing about TSM at $80. MSTR will return to its ATH sooner or later, just as BTC always has...

Wowmuchrya

Lol that’s delusional. You could see the put stacking for OPEX 2 weeks out at 6500. They will move the market to where they want it to go. There were huge unusual puts that came in 2 weeks ago, and they weren’t hedges, for TSM, AMD, Micron, LRCX, Oklo, and Sandisk. Yes the price went up after they purchased them, but they didn’t care. Here’s an example. These were purchased 3 weeks ago. TSM went up $10 and this institution never exited their position. Then suddenly boom, “ai crash” (manufactured fake fear brought on by planned selling lmao). https://preview.redd.it/6uv9d6m93v2g1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3d63400abcf99457fb3c475a3dec518ce4238e10

-B-H-

TSM makes the best microchips and has had a pullback

orangeyougladiator

NVDA are literally fudging their numbers and have a $20bn stockpile of chips no one wants. They say their demand is thru the roof but they’re trying to realize profits today they might never see. If they take their foot off the gas with TSM then others will jump in their place. They’re fucked.

brjh1990

GOOG, RDDT, MU, AMZN, TSM are my top picks right now, I have recurring buys on those. Another (small) position I just started is HOOD. Looking for a really nasty drop before considering NVDA.

Future_Bruce_Wayne

Netflix probably around 130-150 decent pricing. TSM or GOOGL. I would stay away from NVDA imo unless they crash super hard then enter like a 180 leap for them

-B-H-

TSM has had a big pullback and will continue to make the best microchips

New_Ad_1682

I bought dips on TSM and made 200% buying puts on BE.

FinishWarm1746

My TSM calls are so cooked right now. 57 days left but I’ll probably have to roll

purpleinme

My poor TSM calls. Time to close the app.

easylife12345

Bought APP earlier in the week. Sold it in the early morning pop. Didn‘t expect the market to drop like a rock. Bought it back in the last hour. Should have bought it back in the last 15 minutes…. It will rally hard when the market is done falling. Also added some NVDA, TSM, and a few dividend stocks. GLTA

Dangleboard_Addict

Over a long enough time frame I'm sure those will print, especially TSM

git_push_yourself

I got TSM, Nvidia, and AMD in my M1 finance long term account

Dangleboard_Addict

So you wanted to invest in infrastructure for AI but didn't think to buy TSM, Nvidia, AMD or even Intel?  Y'know, the hardware manufacturers? Sorry but you belong here

purpleinme

I sold my April TSM calls this morning for big gains, then rebought them at $285 when the Nasdaq went -1%. Boy I should have waited lol.

purpleinme

I bought back into TSM at $285 dip lol oooof

option-trader

So, calls on TSM?

moldyjellybean

My question is shouldn’t TSM actually be the most valuable company in the world. Been asking this for 10+ years. Apple, NVDA, AMD, INTC, QCOM, GOOG, AMZN, META, MSFT don’t all these companies depend on TSM . It’s not like INTC or Samsung can make these chips.

Poundcake2RedVelvet

wow, must be a great time to invest in TSM

imrickjamesbioch

Pass… Open ai isn’t even a publicly traded company, hemorrhaging cash/opex costs and their price structure is dumb as fuck. Coreweave is carrying too much debt for my taste. I’m all in on NBIS, NVDA, TSM, AVGO, and the Goog. Might jump in on Apple if it dips under $250, maybe ORCL/NFLX. But Im mainly stacking shares on the 5 companies I’ve listed. I don’t feel the need to gamble on starts ups or companies outside the mag 7 + 2 (AVGO/TSM) as when the AI wars settle, these companies will still be the major playas!

Historical_Air_8997

That’s a dumb take. 30% of ASML’s revenue is from providing maintenance on old machines, that isn’t going to stop and if TSM and other customers cut their budget for new machines the maintenance costs are just going to increase giving ASML high margin consistent business. The net margins on the installed base segment is about 40% vs 25-30% for new machine sales. So ASML would be fine. It’s nothing like me doing everything I can to avoid updating my Epson printer and buying off brand ink

Historical_Air_8997

But who makes the lithography machines for TSM? ASML

DrB00

I just figured TSM is safer because even if AI bursts everyone still needs their chips made by TSM for anything and everything. If AI bursts NVDA is going back to making video cards for PC enthusiasts and that's about it. Since AMD is the go to for a lot of console manufacturers.

Historical_Air_8997

The real shovels play is ASML. But TSM and NVDA, shit even AMD, are all pretty solid companies to own and at the forefront of the AI boom/bubble/revolution

FinishWarm1746

Well looks like my TSM calls are saved :D

Stocks_N_Bondage

My calls are already in place. Too many to list but a few that I like that did well today that I am holding: AVGO GE TSM Also have calls and or long positions on SOFI AMGN UUUU GOOG Also just went long ARKK

Beginning-Fig-9089

TSM manufacturers the chips so that makes sense

EPgasdoc

TSM up too

29InchWaistOrStarve

What makes u think their revenues aren’t real? They have more demand than supply. Jensen is trying to get TSM to ramp up production

HND171

TSM calls

purpleinme

Are my April $280 TSM calls cooked after hours?

bearhunter429

#Jensen is going to announce that there are supply issues and TSM isn't building enough GPUs for them. There is a possibility that he will hint at a partnership with Intel. LMAO🤌

_Apostate_

Did YOLO gamble on TSM calls instead of NVIDIA for earnings today. Half the IV so no IV crush, should move in tandem with Mvidia if earnings are good.

BallsOfStonk

This is: 1.) A surefire way to get a government handout. 2.) A surefire way to run the company into the ground, in perhaps the single hardest, low margin, no room for error business on the planet. There is a reason TSM is the only remaining cutting edge fab on earth. There is a reason Intel and AMD both stumbled and failed here. It is perhaps the hardest science problem that exists in modern business, and if you fuck it up for 18 months and miss a die shrink, your business essentially goes under.