TSM

blueprint_01

TSM was a big one for me.

No_Cow_8702

Who do you think dominates the market for intelligent semiconductor manufacturing? 90% of the market is owned by TSM. Samsung is way behind and INTC doesn’t even have a 18A node or pdk to attract a designer customer. Pretty much if TSM goes down with Taiwan your technology companies go right down with it. It is extremely hard for semiconductors to be manufactured (The intelligent ones made for GPU’s) Another aspect about Taiwan politics is this…. IF Taiwanese government EVER announces independence from China (which has not happened) is when China will be on their doorstep the next day. Another aspect is that China does not want to be anywhere near a war due to their economic situation and their Prime minister wanting to stimulate growth instead.

Ape_Quant

congressional trades in TSM have also shown strong post-disclosure returns over the past year. AI is popping

drunklifter112

TSM they are supplying everything have 2 fab facilities being built in AZ

No_Cow_8702

Funny you say this, since AVGO depends on TSM for semis. AVGO is a designer, TSM manufactures it.

No_Cow_8702

Buddy, AVGO depends on TSM manufacturing. If Taiwan goes down, the semi market also comes crashing down along with every other tech company. TSM has about 90% of the intelligent semi market.

Key_Variety_6287

They are both great first class businesses. Both very very richly valued at the moment. With TSM, you take on geo political risk.

ONSLKW

AVGO is not hindered by geopolitics like TSM, thus bigger upside. Both are great tho. I own neither and prefer to own NVDA but i used to own AVGO before i cashed the highs

RabidR00ster

Both are monsters, but TSM has a much more attractive valuation, so that’s my choice.

Independent_Buy5152

Why? It is easier for them to steal TSM’s IP compared to ASML’s. They don’t need to claim Taiwan only for TSM

LombazFromHell

China is interested in TSM's factories. The whole "China Only" thing is just a fairy tale they tell their people to justify their true intentions.

Jsaldleaf

I don't think moving TSM's operations would be nearly as simple as relocating their HQ. The fabs themselves are what matter, and you can't just pack up a $20B facility and ship it overseas. Building new cutting-edge fabs takes years and massive capital investment. Plus if tensions escalate to that point, I doubt China would just sit back and let them transfer all their IP and talent out of Taiwan.

SerpentRoyalty

Right now some of the risk is priced in so I wouldn't call it undervalued. TSM is too big to fail without denting the global economy. So the more likely scenario is that if China invades, TSM would move their HQ and IP somewhere else. Perhaps Singapore or Korea.

mneymaker

RKLB and ASTS have taken off while I am holding my NBIS, META, RDDT, GOOG, TSM calls. Best case scenario, I will be rotating my insane profits I will be having \~ end of February to buy the RKLB, LUNR, ASTS dip. Realistically though, I am going to be -60% and buy $ROPE with what is left.

stapleswf

Yeah, I get what you’re saying. Keeping control on the mainland is definitely their top priority, and any aggressive move would bring a strong response from allies. So in your view, what risks should someone watch out for when holding TSM long term? Appreciate it

stapleswf

Yeah, I’m with you on that So, what’s your take on holding TSM long-term right now And how do you usually go about learning more about the company

stapleswf

Totally agree with you. I bought TSM back in May mostly ‘cause of some news and buzz. Right now I’m up about 50%that’s just the reality. If you’re holding it too, I’d love to hear your take on its gains so far and any risks you see

LobsterInevitable980

Totally agree, TSM's 3/4/5nm lines are running at full speed. 41% YoY growth says it all. What's your price target fou it?

LobsterInevitable980

Geopolitical risk is definitely one of the potential long term risks we have to keep in mind, but for now, I don't think it really affects TSM's value.

bigchief2077

I bought a tiny bit of TSM at $97 3 years ago and am so mad I didnt buy more. In fact I should buy some more now. i doubt it will go down anytime soon

KeithWat399

TSM is hands down a great company but the geopolitical risk around Taiwan is always hanging out there and the possibility of China moving on Taiwan is something the market just cannot fully ignore What I keep wondering is whether that uncertainty is already priced into TSM or if it is going to keep weighing on the valuation going forward and I would really like to hear what people think about that risk premium

Nunya_Business_42

TSM will continue to print money until actual competitive fabs become operational in other countries. Or until China invades. You know everything consumer (and some enterprise) is made there right? Chips for smartphones, tablets, laptops, desktops, GPU etc. And more. It doesn't matter that AI collapses, there will be some loss, but demand for everything else will still remain.

stapleswf

I totally agree with what you are saying and it does not change the fact that this is a successful company I have been holding TSM for a while now I started my core position around 172 and kept adding to it from June through July this year I am up over 50 percent at this point Do you think it makes sense to exit now or just keep holding And are you invested in this company too I would love to hear your take Thanks

zennsunni

You're biased because you're holding TSM. None of the questions you asked have anything to do with AI Hype or the economic prospects of AI. There are only two questions that really matter there: (1) Is anyone making a lot of money off AI; (2) The answer to (1) is "No" and so the follow up is, will anyone ever make a lot of money off AI? No one really knows the answer to (2), but it sure doesn't look good.

mneymaker

I am all in NBIS, META, GOOG, RDDT, TSM I can't afford it

Just_Year1575

TSM makes Apple chips, AMD processors, NVidia gpus. TSM can basically charge what they want, as they are the “last man standing” with leading edge processes for chips

captain_ahabb

Wouldn't TSM production orders be a trailing indicator?

FinishWarm1746

Foundry revenue climbs 17% in Q3 on AI demand; TSMC leads market Dec. 22, 2025 8:24 AM ETTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Stock, TXN Stock, INTC Stock, SSNLF Stock, IFNNY StockAMD, NVDA, AVGOBy: Arundhati Sarkar, SA News Editor

adonazon

Winners win. Can’t believe it hasn’t been mentioned yet. I think we see $TSM be a top performing stock in 2026. (It was in 2025 as well)

Mik3Hunt69

Brookfield, Amazon, uber, alphabet, TSM, SPGI, Mastercard, novo nordisk, mercado libre. I own all of these and I think they will give a strong market beating return in the next 5 years

Upstairs_Whole_580

You're goddamn right I do and I don't think it's anywhere NEAR the top. I've watched this stock for 8 years now since I first invested. 2,000 shares in at 136 I believe in 2019 and another 1000 at in early '23. NVDA is cheap right now and I realize there are some ugly Macro conditions...which is why I went a year out. They're going to come in around 70B in Q4 and that's assuming no revenue from China(and I think there will be some) and I think their Q2 F'27 earnings will be \~90B, net revenue of \~50B). I think the whole "The AI bubble has popped," story is nonsense and the next cycle of earnings will prove this. Hell, I think THIS cycle has proven it's not a bubble, it was just due a little bit of a correction, but I think AVGO going from \~425 after hours during the earnings to 325 is a gross overreaction to them beating across the board. Even Oracle had a decent earnings and it's down... what, 30%(I don't have a position in ORCL). I read the comments of the designer of Ironwood regarding the sell-off of NVDA after rumors they may sell their TPUs(no different than when META was on the verge of their own big breakthrough in '22 and '24 or AMZN every year) about the NVDA selloff and how clueless the market is about hardware and the demand. Cloud service is supply constrained and I think NVDA will hit 275 end of calendar 2026. That's my belief and that's where I'm putting my money, but I think saying "the top is in," on Nvidia at \~180 or whatever it is exactly, is... not accurate. I we're going to see several million H200's sold to China this year and AI CapEx shows... absolutely no sign of slowing. 500B in backlogged sales through the end of Fiscal '27 without OpenAI and without China. 200 contracts, bought last week when it was trading at about 172 cost me about \~215K I should probably be hedging given my position, but... I'm not going to. I could sell right now and take a... little 10K win, but I think this stock just pulled back, corrected and it's getting ready for another run. Maybe not until after next earnings. I think it'll likely trade mostly sideways until we get more clarity on China, but I think it'll sail past a 5T market cap to 6T in 2026. I'm primarily an investor and I just picked up another 7500 shares of AMZN... which I think is the safest of the large caps next year ahead of only TSM, but I liked the pullback. If I lose the entire \~220, I'm fine. If it goes the way I think it will... I'll be out by March and re-evaluating. It's just play money. My retirement is in Vanguard, my Roth in Fidelity. My cash is in a separate fidelity account. Only other thing I may do is buy 5-6 more BTC, but... I'm holding off.

Complex_Variation_

TSM

Much_Dealer8865

TSM is one of my core holdings, they've shown to have a successful business strategy and are the backbone of semiconductor manufacturing right now. I personally think China is going to continue advancement on their own semiconductor companies and may possibly get on their level in the next 5-10 years, invasion of Taiwan is unlikely especially due to this. TSM and customers have roadmaps of the next several process nodes and have already successfully produced the next couple of generations, it isn't stopping anytime soon.

Brochoa

TSM, NVDA, MU, AVGO, and AMD. Enterprise and AI will continue to boom Q1 and Q2

bartturner

Google. The latest TPUs, Ironwood, are rumored to be twice as efficient as the best from Nvidia, Blackwell. That means the same sized data center, power, cooling gets twice the output. That is just huge. There are so many reasons why it is likely it is true on the efficiency. One is the fact that Google is using N3P at TSM for Ironwood, V7 TPU. Where Nvidia is using 4NP for Blackwell. Google has already contracted with Foxconn to do the assembly of the boards.

apeawake

That’s really great.  I made 15% in my main account which was remarkable because the vol was minimal. Max draw down was 3%. I caught the bottom in Google and made some good trades in Applied TSM and ASML with minimal risk from where I bought in April. I owned a good sized gold position until October.  Made 57% in my Roth taking highest conviction bets (lot of google here, too) Made 7% :/ in my smaller Ira being conservative - names like CNI, Pepsi, Vici

JDVances_Couch69

TSM

AyumiHikaru

Where is NVDA/AAPL/AMD/GOOG/AVGO/INTC going to get its chips if TSM goes belly up ??? LOL

kasite

If China invades Taiwan, every stock will tank 50%, not just TSM.

FinishWarm1746

TSM won’t break 300 fuck

zendaddy76

Personally I would invest equally in both on maybe say January 1st and see which one wins in 3-5 years. I did this in 2025 in my Roth, with NVDA AVGO TSM, and it was fun to watch the horse race, and it also prevented me from tinkering along the way.

johnmiddle

jsut buy TSM anytime

bartturner

Foxconn is NOT competing with TSM. Google uses TSM for the fabrication of the TPUs. Foxconn is to assemble the boards WITH the TPU chip that was fabricated by TSM.

FinishWarm1746

US approves billions 11billion in arms sales to Taiwan. TSM calls are well protected 

Humbash

I made some money on TSM today. I think it fucks tomorrow as well. Will buy cheap lottos eod.

CommunicationGlad678

Keep your Nvidia. Start focusing on some ETFs like QQQ and VOO and maybe add a few more single stocks like TSM, Google, and Amazon. Make sure you also diversify geographically (GMF and INDA?) as well as industry-wise.

Helpful-Quarter-8632

Better sell before it does like TSM, NVDA, AVGO. They all had good earnings and then shit the bed the next trading day.

TheDonFulio

Something tells me TSM, INTC, and Samsung won’t be leaving ASML for Chinese counterparts. Even then, it’s a big if true

looool_k_libtard

Don’t even understand why TSM and NVIDIA are getting crushed today lmao shit is so fucking stupid

optionsCone

When several megacaps drop over 3% at the same time, it drags the entire Nasdaq lower (NVDA, GOOG, TSLA, AVGO, TSM, ORCL)

looool_k_libtard

You know it’s fun times when Google and TSM are destroying your port today

H6UEF4WU8X

I just bought SIL and TSM.

FinishWarm1746

Not avgo but TSM. They supply their chips and seeing the after hours chart shoot straight down from hitting ATH really hurt lol

Prudent-Corgi3793

I'm an AI bull, and I think this may be the best thing. You have four profitable hyperscalers (MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, META) which were spending aggressively, but previously within their means, clearly showing accelerated growth as a result of their investment in AI. There is a real risk to excessive capex spending, but the underlying businesses will be fine. You also have three mega caps with the shovels (NVDA, TSM, ASML) with impenetrable moats. Their stocks have soared, but their performance has backed this up. Is there risk? Sure, only to the extent that we may be projecting this growth too far into the future, but their multiples have actually compressed. Maybe add AVGO to this as well--a great company, but richly valued, very justifiable if this boom cycle continues. Then we have the signs of the bubble all the bears talk about: - Preprofitable companies with narrow moats spending hundreds of times their ARR in capex. - Legacy database providers needing to commit hundreds of billions in capex to get into the AI game. - Newer automotive or database companies rebranding as "AI" trading at hundreds of times earnings (or even sales). - Rocket companies, most of them prerevenue, mooning due to the possibility of launching datacenters into space? - Neoclouds with junk bond status with market caps approaching $100 billion before reaching profitability. - Energy companies with no experience raising $16 billion in IPO not only before reaching profitability, but without even a **single cent of revenue**. - Private startups raising money at $12 billion valuation not only without profitability or revenue, but not even a product or customer. If/when this collapses, the entire sector (and the entire market) will take a hit, because no one's really going to distinguish between the good companies and the bad ones. If the bandaid needs to be ripped off, I'm starting to come around to the idea that a quick crash might be best. I'll be piling into the good companies afterwards, hoping for a lightning fast recovery a la the COVID crash and subsequent boom.

-B-H-

Tesla going up more than TSM, GOOGLE? Fuck this backwards week.

Manu_Militari

Yes - there have been many changes to accounting, this post wasn't mean to be a geek out on accounting but an approachable read for the most impactful changes. I acknowledge goodwill is no longer amortized. Yes - this is a boost to current earnings reporting vs historical but that is a small impact compared to current SBC expensing and the amortization of acquired intangible assets. Goodwill was amortized over 40 years prior... and i disagree regarding your point on revenue recognition standards loosening. There is a much more defined recognition of revenue today, companies of the past were able to defer revenue recognition to 'game' when it would be most effective. Now revenue recognition is matched to product transfer and to contract obligations being met. Yes, this moves the revenue recognition earlier often but its much more in line with accounting matching principles. There will always be 'judgement' rules for companies to attempt to manipulate earnings, thats why you need to reseasrch companies and look at financial statements. GAAP isn't a perfect system. Circular financing is a real concern right now. I agree. Again, company specific mainly revolving around OpenAI and their deals. I think there are problems with that. Regarding semis - I mean, I am talking about the aggregate SP500 market as a whole. There will always be company specific nuances. Show me a company that reports zero cost of goods sold. Fabless companies dont net revenue against payments to TSM.

SpongEWorTHiebOb

With the move to fair value based accounting, standards have become more relaxed regarding revenue recognition and contract accounting. In addition companies are probably understating bad debt reserves and reserves for returns and allowances in connection with aggressive revenue recognition. As another commentator mentioned Goodwill is generally no longer amortized. These major changes over the past 10 to 15 years have allowed greater flexibility for companies to manage (game) their earnings. It’s a mistake to say that accounting has become stricter, resulting in the recognition of more costs and expenses. Case in point are some of the semiconductor companies and their contracts with nonpublic LLM companies. There is some concern that the industry is not really making as much money as they claim and many of the deals are cost pass throughs. The semi conductor designers collect a toll or service fee. They don’t make the chips but outsource to TSM. They then net the payment received from the LLM against the costs paid to TSM. Zero cost of goods sold. The toll is then reported as revenue in their services segment at 100% margin. This is probably perfectly acceptable under GAAP since the contract terms control how revenue is recognized. Lastly, public companies fiercely resist changes that limit their options or reduce their earnings. This is the USA. does anyone really think companies who are looking to sell their stock are going to roll over to a bunch of pencil pushers at FASB. Wake up.

Sugamaballz69

I think they still have a few more years at least. It might be smart to change most of NVDA shares out for TSM though. Slightly less aggressive growth but much more sustainable long term

Emergency_Gold_9347

TSM of course. They are the contract manufacturer for NVDA among others.

jcoigny

This isn't even possible as TSM has sold out all capacity N4 and smaller through 2027. They are the only producer capable of building the processors and share the few fabs that are capable with apple and Broadcom and AMD. Do they expect to tell apple sorry man no more iphones for the next six months ok we need more ai chips!

-B-H-

Google, TSM. I am always hopeful to catch inverse Tesla. That bitch has got to fall eventually.

BasSTiD

Whole thing balances on TSM/ASML. Could see argument for AMAT argument but that’s the easiest of the 3 to get around. NVidia will come to earth somewhat. Intel has resorted to lobbying as they have had poor fabs and architecture for years and added to that with a poor response to issues recently. AMD of the 3 has the most room to run. Most of the GPU/AI architecture advantage is gone already it’s just current software is designed with CUDA in mind rather than AMD/others. Performance to watt with die size in mind on gaming (which takes AMD more seriously) already has them near even. AMD has had a huge advantage in defect rate on the CPU side due to chiplets and will almost for sure be the first to do it on the GPU/AI side. With limited foundry availability and defect parts not being comped, this is the next major step. If I was betting, ASML long, TSM long, AMD long. Uranium for power delivery as transistors are already a dozen or less atoms wide. Whoever can leverage MIT’s research into more efficient TEG’s as well which should go a good ways towards power recovery. Industry is going to be linked to energy for at least a decade now. The whole sector lost its luster a bit for me though with AI. The back turning on consumer facing products is lame (well outside AMD anyway). AMD gained data center CPU ground by hitting consumers first and proving their architectures advantages. They’re slowly doing the same with GPU’s now.

SpongEWorTHiebOb

Broadcom has had accounting and reporting issues in the past. It’s widely reported that their latest deal with Anthropic is a cost pass through structure where AVGO acts as a middle man collecting a toll. The cost paid to TSM never shows in cost of sales or is offset by the reimbursement received from Anthropic. The toll gets reported in its services segment and appears as 100% margin but AVGO does little to add value. The toll is also relatively minor relative to the costs. It’s an accounting gimmick. If this gets confirmed and if it’s a wide spread then this will be a big scandal.

PickleRickleTV

META and TSM are not in VGT. TSM is also not in VOO, only in VT. So really only quadruple dipping Google. Triple dipping META I wanted to be overweight in META, TSM and especially Google 🤷🏼‍♂️. I bought META on the recent dip at ~$600. Average Google price is ~$250. TSM is ~$270.

PickleRickleTV

META and TSM are not in VGT. TSM is also not in VOO, only in VT. So really only triple dipping Google. I wanted to be overweight in META, TSM and especially Google 🤷🏼‍♂️. I bought META on the recent dip at $600. Average Google price is ~$250. TSM is $270.

Ascorbinium_Romanum

Can we stop calling Tesla mag 7 ? We can replace it by TSM for example, that is a real stock and not a meme.

PickleRickleTV

Or just buy stocks. I’d say 60% of my portfolio is in VOO, VGT and VT. 40% is in stocks like Google, Meta, TSM and a bunch of space stocks. Most for 1 position is about 4-5% of my port.

looool_k_libtard

There is zero reason for TSM to be getting clobbered lmao

drakevibes

I’m just talking about since yesterday, not overall. TSM down over 3%

BearishBull69_

Catch me loading up on TSM

Outrageous_Tip_2133

Agreed. I think it is continuation of profit-taking trend in AI stocks that started around Halloween. ORCL's disappointing earnings were an exception. Most AI stocks have had stellar earnings and very robust guidance, be it NVDA, TSM, AMD, AVGO, etc...

thembitches326

Looking at the top left corner of finviz is looking like a fucking yikes right now. AVGO in particular! Glad I sold them and TSM about 2 months ago!

codespyder

TSM: *down 0.5%*

Traditional_Honey108

TSM hasn’t tanked, and rightly so. It’s a fucking powerhouse.

wright_on_

I feel like the minute I buy into $TSM China is gonna invade

FinishWarm1746

Up 12pts after hours Along with my TSM calls. Thank you Broadcom. Fuck you Oracle 

PatientBaker7172

Bullish on all datacenters. Genesis project was the pivotal moment for all hands on deck approach. All winners. $ORCL $NVDA $TSM $NBIS $IREN $CRWV $GOOGL $MSFT $META $APLD $AMD $AMZN

-B-H-

Red days are good for buying calls. I’d like to get some more TSM calls specifically.

barelyreadsenglish

However, I believe Tesla will successfully break into the market due to its $0.20-$0.40 operating cost per mile, the cheapest on the market. The cost reduction will be done thanks to the reduced use of LiDAR and radar and the greater weight of AI 4 chips (built by Samsung and TSM) and the smart computers. I wonder if the wrongful deaths lawsuits and insurance cost are taken into account here

Josepth_Blowsepth

was a paper handed bitch and sold for %2800 return on a TSM call

FinishWarm1746

My TSM calls are almost at break even. Holy fuck 😭 I gotta stop buying at all time highs 

Trashpanda7193

TSM 🚀

purpleinme

Dumping my TSM for NVDA was the stupidest thing I’ve ever done

mneymaker

I guess none of you notices TSM the last couple days. Clear cut winner in the AI race

Traditional_Honey108

Planning a family with TSM 💕

LawlessNJ

Depends if you count Netflix as tech. It’s dropping again on news they *won’t* acquired WBD. None of their fundamentals, IPs, and revenue streams will be affected by this. Market punishing them right now for having more cash, healthier margins, and reduced synergy risk. If it drops to $90, I’ll enter. LUNR is at a $2.1B valuation right now. Lanteris adds $850M/yr revenue with backlog. It’s no longer an IM-3 bet but priced like it. I wanted to buy more during selloff but stuff like AVGO and TSM was just more tempting, safer. Disclaimer: don’t own Netflix. Small position in LUNR ~$5k.

RayU_AZ

I think Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta & TSM are under valued with PE ratios under 35.

movienight1988

These insiders have so much stock that getting rid of 12 million is nothing. It’s like us cashing out 100 shares to fund a new Rolex. The competition is slowly catching up but Nvidia is also lead by a relentless CEO that treats everyday as doomsday. Further adding to my confidence is the ultra strong relationship he has with the TSM boss, locking down almost all the capacity.

092Casey

I hope TSM dips more. Thing is a goldmine.

vandammes

China does not have the technology or factories to build the wafers TSM is building for NVIDIA. They had 2 option. I predicted this months ago. 1 they agree with Trump and buy there way into the AI GPU's or they invade Taiwan and takeover TSM, but that would be economical suicide. They chose the first.

FunnyJaded7040

This stock is truly a diamond in the rough. Please have a look at the thematics regarding this industry and the recent deald this company has made (TSM on their arizona plant). Sure this is not as volatile or popular as the trendy stocks, but this is a true company that have very very strong fundamentals. I urge you to have a look at the Q£ report. Very strong numbers.

FinishWarm1746

NVDA and TSM are fucking pumping after hours 😂😂

FinishWarm1746

TSM is about to skyrocket. I mean I guess as NVDA goes up so does TSM 

Fragrant-Sand-5851

Genuinely question, TSM is still barred from making chips for them, how do they make the “advanced chips”?

FinishWarm1746

TSM better break 300 cause I’m fucked if not

shabigdata

Why not TSM

LawlessNJ

The idea that they are a threat is outdated. This TAM isn’t even close to the beginning of saturation. This isn’t going to be zero-sum. Google has been developing this for a decade. What made even less sense was the market selling off TSM during the Google rally. 

Negative_Win_5117

LRCX, TSM, AMAT, KLAC If you know, you know

magneticpasta9

Priced in, TSM already started moving operations to US, basically america said screw Taiwan we aren't protecting you anymore

FinishWarm1746

TSM!!!!!