TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Mentions (24Hr)
1400.00% Today
Reddit Posts
Biden to announce Billions in Subsidies for MU, TSM to rev up chip production!
Any reason why I shouldn’t invest in TSM given its current price?
💰Going Long on TSM: The Unseen Goldmine Behind NVDA’s Success💰
TSM - I was right, kind of, and i think there's still more value here.
I cant help but wonder if $TSM has a whole another leg up to go
Nancy Pelosi bought $AB which owns a large position in $TSM. (Follow the money)
You buy $TSM indirectly. That’s how Nancy did it! $AB (Follow the Money)
China unveils draft for standardizing AI industry 🚀 $NVDA 🚀 $AMD 🚀 $TSM 🚀
Has anyone seriously looked at Global Foundries [$GFS]
Have about 13k invested in different markets. Just made my portfolio breakdown % similar to Warren Buffet’s. Mistake?
$INTC Israels : 3.2Billion for a Western Worlds TSM. And that ASML NM Machine. 5nm, 3nm, 2nm coming. No More Taiwan TSM China Fear.
High Investment Potential in AMD, Netflix, Eli Lilly, Palantir & TSM: Twin Momentum Investor Model
Whats the play for the culling of the American Autoworker
Does Biden cutting off chips to China mean TSM is gonna go up
YUKON TINTINA GOLD PROVINCE DD #1 - Western Copper & Gold
Apple’s Cheapest iPhone Surges in Popularity After Upgrades
Tesla CEO Elon Musk: 'We're using a lot of Nvidia hardware'
So with both ASML and TSM(C) earnings/calls complete how do we feel for the future of AI/semi-conductor chips sentiment?
My AI momentum trading journey just started. Dumping $3k into an automated trading strategy guided by ChatGPT. Am I gonna make it
The AI trading journey begins. Throwing $3k into automated trading strategies. Will I eat a bag of dicks? Roast me if you must
$TSM is extremely undervalued and overlooked, especially with AI
Investment plan for about 85 000$ USD over the coming year
Investment plan for about 85 000$ USD over the coming year
Gallium & Germanium: How will the second half of 2023 play out? Shift in the supply chain imminent?
Playing AI earnings is a short term money glitch which cannot go tits up (or can it?)
UPDATE: I decided to follow the strict curriculum of r/WSB, taking the entire total of my previous post into the same TSM option
UPDATE: TSM $110 Call on 6/30 - $27k gain at open - $64k gain in a week
Current weekly position- $110 strike on 6/30 for $TSM and other now closed positions - $40k in a week
TSM Stock Forecast: Sustainable Growth Within Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Volatility
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ($TSM) is a big supplier to Nvidia ($NVDA)
Comeback so close. $TSM, $LRCX, $AMZN are my road to a better life
What stocks outside of the semiconductor stocks and mega cap tech will survive the AI hype cycle?
2-5 international stocks recommendation for diversification
Need advice from people who also posted on Yahoo Finance.
2023-05-08 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of a Maple Syrup Lover
Market Recap - 5/4/23 - "It's not my fault, it's 'market manipulation'"
2023-04-28 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of Vanellope von Schweetz
US News' Investing's 2023 picks are up 13.1% vs 7.7% for S&P so far.
Market Recap - 4/20/23 - Things are bad, but not all bad, and the Fed is not done yet
EarningsGPT: This Week Earnings Releases and Reactions Summary by ChatGPT
EarningsGPT: This Week Earnings Releases and Reactions Summary by ChatGPT
IBM, TSM, NOK rocket 🚀 🤣
Week Ended April 14 - Recap and thoughts for next week- valuation model update
Sen. Tuberville disclosed a 3/21 options bet against Taiwan Semiconductor: $TSM $75P @ 09/15/2023
Sen. Tuberville disclosed a March options bet against Taiwan Semiconductor: $TSM $75P @ 09/15/202
The Big Cup and Handle, Earnings, CPI and FOMC…. 4-14-23 SPY/ ES Futures, VIX, 10YR Yield and DXY Weekly Market Analysis
With Buffett selling $TSM and senators buying puts on it, is the war in Taiwan breaking out?
Taiwan Semi Posts First Fall in Monthly Revenue in Years as Macro Headwinds Hit Chips
Rate my pie - Semiconductor stocks (exc NVDA, AMD, TSM)
Taiwan chip export plunges, China still lags amid U.S. restriction
For anyone who thinks that Warren Buffet always buy companies to hold them for more than 10 years, be wary, because he literally pumped and dumped TSM...
Room-Temperature Superconductivity Claimed – TSM Play
Daily U.S. Stock Market News Ticker (Monday, March 6)
What's the biggest "I told you so" stock moment?
Intel cuts 66% of forward dividend - a short opportunity?
Are chip makers like TSM really cyclical?
Mentions
If china invades Taiwan does that mean TSM would go belly up
TSM is definitely a buy, as long as China leaves it alone. It’s anyone’s guess if they will.
Done really well holding TSM for a few years but whenever that iPhone news update that China invades Taiwan comes through I’m deleting my brokerage
The company is undervalued given the turmoil with China. If you ask me, TSM is worth buying, but there is always a risk, especially geographically.
Are we still buying TSM? Trying to wait for it to fall below $290 but that day might never come
I’m investing in the supply chain: TSM and ASML. TSMC is the only company in the world who can fabricate the chips for nvidia and any of their potential competitors, and ASML is basically the only company who can make the machines that are core to TSMC’s fabrication business… win no matter what happens with AI
He bought TSM? Invade it
Market holding on pretty well considering Gyna may attack Taiwan. TSM is barely red lmao
I’m actually bullish on TSM but I sold last week because I bought at the top and it kept trading sideways lel
TSM puts telling you now if things escalate = -30% shock drop
If you think a company like AXTI can't be acquired, reproduced by, or otherwise taken out of the equation by GOOGL or some combination of partnerships in the mag 7 or the rest of the industry, you're wrong. Additionally the development of AI, and in particular the pursuit of advanced AI or AGI, is a nation-state problem. The United States can't afford to fall behind to China in AI and in fact if any part of the supply chain were seriously hampered to the point where progress was not being made, there would be government investment to the tune of billions to build out that supply chain. "Google literally cannot do this because it's a physics problem, it's not something money can buy. IT would take a few years at least." -- You do realize Google has one of the highest concentrations of PHDs in Physics, Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Computer Science out of any company or institutions in the world right? Mixed with a war chest comparable to only a few other institutions like AAPL. There are probably more PHDs at GOOGL than the number that reside at the most universities. Probably more than cumulatively reside at any of the best colleges in the nation. As u/x7_omega mentioned below "*AXT’s worldwide headquarters are* ***in Fremont, California*** *and includes* ***sales, administration and customer service functions***\*. AXT’s\* ***subsidiary in China (“Tongmei”)*** *has similar functions as well as* ***manufacturing facilities to produce wafer substrates***\*. In addition, as part of the supply chain strategy, AXT,\* ***Tongmei and Tongmei subsidiaries collectively have partial ownership in ten companies in China producing raw materials***\*.\* If this company is really a "bottleneck" but all of it's manufacturing and R&D happens in China, that's already a national security risk that needs to be or is in the process of being mitigated. I know nothing about the intrinsic value of this company. You might be right I just don't agree with your reasoning. Look at the $TSM bottleneck/single point of failure in the supply chain...It's actively being mitigated by trillions in investment in US based chip fab.
TSM not even reacting to china’s bullshit military exercise lol
Any regards holding $TSM calls with me?
Yeah, a lot of us have learned loss using options. Lost and entire account. But I learn3d from it and only ever use them for hedging dug in deep amd learned how they work buying and selling calls and puts but not naked anymore and rarely do it. Mostly in individual stocks. Keep your head up and keep going stay long and shift quarterly. I had NVDA when no one knew what is was in 2003. Id have millions if I would have kept. You cant follow anything on reddit or get rich quick schemes. Invest in companies you use, or industries ypu research and understand. Like I sont touch NVDA because it hurts too much but I do invest in the companies that support it, MU, TSM, ASML. Look for future tech and research the top 4 companies in those industries, like quantum computing eVTOL, space transportation, AI industries, energy utility companies, Healthcare....look for companies that are no where close to they 52 week highs considsr3d value stocks and do some digging why they went down and determine if those are valid reasons for 30% or 40% declines. Good luck to. Ive had multiple accounts down 30-60% and by researching buckling down they've recovered and more.
Are my TSM feb calls fucked chat?
they define it as at least 3 of these occurring within 90 days - NVDA down 50% from ATH, SOXX down 40% from ATH, OpenAI or Anthropic declaring bankruptcy, OpenAI acquired, H100 rentals below $1.00/hr for 5 consecutive days, and/or one supplier (TSM/ASML/AVGO/ANET/SMCI) down 50% from ATH
Picked up $TSM Feb calls yesterday Can some bears give me some reasons why this was a bad idea?
Been holding some months, lazily each has around same %, should I swap something for 2026? Do you think the chip trend will continue trough 2026, or cut off somewhere there? AGI - Gold ALB - Lithium (and speciality chems) FCX - Copper (and gold) KLAC - Semiconductor process control and inspection LRCX – Semiconductor manufacturing semiconductor MU – Memory / storage chips NVDA – GPUs SIMO - SSDs / flash storage controllers TSM - Chip manufacturer
Picked up $10k worth of $TSM calls at close, am I regarded?
|**Ticker**|**Company Name**|**Price**|**AI Score**|**Recommendation**|**Sentiment Score**|**Sentiment Confidence**| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |[AMD](https://www.aiportfolioanalyst.com/aiportfolioanalyst/Bank/Utilities/StockHistory.cfm?symbol=AMD)|Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.|214.99|41.13|Hold|0.37|61%| |[INTC](https://www.aiportfolioanalyst.com/aiportfolioanalyst/Bank/Utilities/StockHistory.cfm?symbol=INTC)|Intel Corporation|36.20|38.28|Hold|\-0.10|78%| |[TSM](https://www.aiportfolioanalyst.com/aiportfolioanalyst/Bank/Utilities/StockHistory.cfm?symbol=TSM)|Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited|302.84|50.43|Buy|\-0.08|77%| **Analysis Details:** Execution Time: 0.331 seconds Stocks Analyzed: 3 Analysis Date: 2025-12-26 The AI code I use gives them similar values as the one mentioned in the main question to which I answered:
TSM finally getting the love it truly deserves
Thanks for taking the time to respond to my points one by one. Let's start with SpaceX IPO. They recently sold at valuation of $800 billion so with $25 billion in revenue, that's a P/S of 32. Even if they do reach the $1.5 trillion circulated by some media outlet, that's still a P/S of 60. I will be the first to admit if I am wrong if it IPO's above $1 trillion. RKLB is still more expensive today that what SpaceX will IPO at in 2026. 1. You proved my point, they need to continue to raise money just to stay relevant whether to invest in R&D or acquire new tech/companies. 2. R&D will continue to be high, even after Neutron, just to keep pace. And until robots and AI can build space systems faster and more efficiently, the labor costs associated with building space systems and rockets will continue to eat at the margin. 3. Thank you. Yet they're trading with absolutely zero risk. Even TSM is trading at a discount because of its geopolitical risk. 4. The difference in the cost of Falcon9 (\~$65-$70 million) and Neutron (\~55 million) is not that wide for most companies when SpaceX can launch almost 200 times a year now from both coasts, and they're likely to drive launch costs lower and lower in the next few years. Can RKLB afford to compete head to head on cost alone, or availability? 5. ASTS can't afford to wait for RKLB (that's if Neutron is suitable for the 6500 kg satellites) and as far as New Glenn, Amazon and Blue Origin have more immediate plans for Kuiper. 6. I disagree, it may bring up more investors leading up to the IPO but most will flee once the real numbers behind SpaceX and Starlink, it won't make sense to own second fiddles, almost exactly like TSLA vs. RIVN/LCID.
Well, looking at the comments it looks like AMZN will be on the 2026 list. With all these tech names mentioned, and believeing we're still in the very beginning innings of this ai boom, my vote is simple--TSM.
Morgan Stanley's top picks for 2026: • NVDA - still the highest ROI in AI compute. Vera Rubin ramps in 2H26, delivering a step-change vs Blackwell. Faster, denser, more profitable. This is infrastructure, not a trade. • AVGO - the cleanest way to play custom silicon and AI networking. ASICs don’t replace Nvidia - they expand Broadcom’s lane. Supporting pillars: • ALAB - hyperscale AI needs connectivity. Smaller cap, direct leverage to data-center buildouts. • MU - HBM stays tight, pricing power holds, memory matters more as AI scales. • AMAT + TSM - no advanced chips without tools and fabs. Capacity = leverage. • NXPI + ADI - the quiet winners as AI demand moves from servers into the real economy. I know MU trades at a lower multiple because they are cyclical, but their forward PE is under 9. Their last ER was simply amazing and blew away all expectations.
But Google has the TPUs and they are rumored to be twice as efficient as the best from Nvidia. Google also uses a more advance node to fabricate at TSM compared to Nvidia.
Funny that people see it that way when in reality Google is actually very cheap for what you are getting. Just take one example. The TPUs. They are rumored to be twice as efficient as the best from Nvidia, Blackwell. Which is very believable. Google for example uses a more advance node than Nvidia at TSM. Google uses 3nm and Nvidia 4nm. That would not account for all of it but that helps. The TPUs being twice as efficient means that the same data center using Google gets twice the output if using Nvidia. That means the same power gets you twice the output. Same with cooling. The building of the datacenter cost, etc. That is huge. Now Google is going to start selling them. They have contracted with Foxconn to do the board assembly with the Google TPUs. But this is just one thing. Google leads in every layer of the AI stack. Every layer. With the most important one being research. Nobody and I mean nobody is close to Google in terms of AI research. This last NeurIPS Google had by far the most papers accepted. They have led every year for over 10 years now with most years finishing #1 and #2. They use to breakout Google Brain from DeepMind.
Google. They are the only company on the planet that has the ENTIRE AI stack. They have the best technology at every layer. The TPUs for example have been rumored to be twice as efficient as the best from Nvidia, Blackwell. They are also fabricated on a more advanced node at TSM. Google uses 3nm and Nvidia is still using the less efficient 4nm.
You are missing a ton of other companies my guy. AMD, TSM, INTC
Besides GOOG, NVDA, and TSM, these honestly seem terrible. You belong here, regard.
Here are my ten: APH NEM TSM GOOG/GOOGL NVDA MRNA CRMD BE VTRS ARLO Check back next year to see how I did.
Not taking valuations into consideration: MSFT and TSM. The benefit with MSFT is the the earnings are not as cyclical as with TSM
I would say TSM and GOOG. TSM because they provide the chips that are necessary for AI and have a near monopoly, and GOOG because they will make good AI, and they also have a great business with ads, and all their other products in case their AI doesn’t pull it’s weight.
TSM. Amazing financials, great leadership, fantastic growth, bottleneck for not just AI but all computers, phones, etc, and it has virtually no competition. There is no phone or computer to use meta’s social media, no phone or computer to use Google or Microsoft products - without TSM. Also the other stocks you listed are all top holdings in any S&P, total stock market, or large cap growth fund. So you already have a lot of exposure to it. You likely don’t have much exposure to TSM unless you invest in it directly, or in certain international ETFs/index funds
TSM has an absolute vice grip on semiconductor manufacturing. Samsung and Intel are their only real potential competition and Samsung has had issues scaling and fulfilling contracts and Intel arrived very late to the party and are still trying to play catch-up. INTC definitely has the 5x potential IF they can pull the catch-up off. Google and Microsoft both have massive, stable core businesses to build off of which gives them a massive advantage. META is arguably the most forward-thinking consumer-wise, but that's largely at the expense of near-term margins. Their social ads platforms aren't as stable revenue streams as Google's or Microsoft's core businesses IMO. AMZN, AVGO, PLTR, ASML, CRWD are all very heavy growers with their own respective niches in the AI sphere as well.
S&P 500 index ETFs allocate around 1-2% to TSM as of late 2025.
These are all good. IMO, you should own a little bit of each: |Stock|Valuation|Upside|Safety| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |META|★★★★|★★★★|★★★| |MSFT|★★★|★★★|★★★★| |GOOG|★★★|★★★★|★★★★| |TSM|★★★★|★★★★|★★★|
1. MSFT – Safest long-term hold. AI everywhere, enterprise lock-in, prints cash. Hard to mess this up. 2. GOOGL – Best value right now. Search + YouTube still dominate, AI fears are overblown, cloud upside. 3. META – Cash machine. Ads are insanely profitable, buybacks help, but more cyclical risk. 4. TSM – Amazing company, but geopolitics + heavy capex keep a lid on valuation. Bottom line: MSFT for stability, GOOGL for value, META for growth with risk, TSM for infrastructure exposure.
Google, Meta, TSM, MFST. Would be my ranking off the top of my head. Google has been a leader. Meta looks to be recovering pretty well. TSMs chart is better than MSFTs in my view, and is more of a picks and shovels play compared to the other 3
I mostly own Google and TSM. Not diverse, I know. But they grow in value consistently. I buy QQQ puts when I feel a pullback for insurance.
Market Whales and Their Recent Bets on TSM Options 12:02 PM ET 12/24/2025 | Benzinga TSM Investors with a lot of money to spend have taken a bullish stance on Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM). And retail traders should know. We noticed this today when the trades showed up on publicly available options history that we track here at Benzinga. Whether these are institutions or just wealthy individuals, we don't know. But when something this big happens with TSM, it often means somebody knows something is about to happen. So how do we know what these investors just did? Today, Benzinga's options scanner spotted 44 uncommon options trades for Taiwan Semiconductor. This isn't normal.
Hommie got that TSM https://preview.redd.it/to77xl35n69g1.png?width=399&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c26c7da6fa4eccfb7403698d219bd2be2a8a1b9
The FABs in germany and japan are making older legacy wafers though. The Arizona FAB is having reliability issues, labor shortages, talent shortages, and their yield of usable wafers is much lower. You arent wrong, they are expanding, and the china risk is mitigating because of that, but truthfully the heart of the operation is still very much taiwan. That is where the bleeding edge chips are made, where the yields are highest, where all the research and developement is conducted, where all the talent is. I thought the china risk was overblown until i saw the video and satellite images of the three monsterous ship/aircraft carrier looking landbridges china was testing out. Those fuckers are purpose built for laying siege on taiwan. MY entire roth is in TSM, i'm still bullish. Truly the most important company on the planet today. If china did make a move, world war 3 would shortly follow thereafter, no doubt.
I love selling CSPs. I have a boatload of $70 TSM puts expiring in June. Why would people buy these?
Exactly. TSM goes down, so does Apple, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Google, etc. Literally the entire US economy depends on newer, faster chips to move productivity forward.
> There’s node value risk (there’s very little beyond backside power delivery to improve on, lithography is at a brick wall for feature size shrinkage, and that’s going precisely nowhere — allowing competition to creep up on their node dominance) There isn't a node value risk. Their upcoming N2 process is 2-3x more popular than their N3 process at the same time period, based on their public statements. A slowdown in Moore's law actually benefits TSM because it costs more and more to make the same leap, which means one of Intel or Samsung likely can't keep up. This industry is a natural monopoly.
Who do you think dominates the market for intelligent semiconductor manufacturing? 90% of the market is owned by TSM. Samsung is way behind and INTC doesn’t even have a 18A node or pdk to attract a designer customer. Pretty much if TSM goes down with Taiwan your technology companies go right down with it. It is extremely hard for semiconductors to be manufactured (The intelligent ones made for GPU’s) Another aspect about Taiwan politics is this…. IF Taiwanese government EVER announces independence from China (which has not happened) is when China will be on their doorstep the next day. Another aspect is that China does not want to be anywhere near a war due to their economic situation and their Prime minister wanting to stimulate growth instead.
congressional trades in TSM have also shown strong post-disclosure returns over the past year. AI is popping
TSM they are supplying everything have 2 fab facilities being built in AZ
Funny you say this, since AVGO depends on TSM for semis. AVGO is a designer, TSM manufactures it.
Buddy, AVGO depends on TSM manufacturing. If Taiwan goes down, the semi market also comes crashing down along with every other tech company. TSM has about 90% of the intelligent semi market.
They are both great first class businesses. Both very very richly valued at the moment. With TSM, you take on geo political risk.
Both are monsters, but TSM has a much more attractive valuation, so that’s my choice.
Why? It is easier for them to steal TSM’s IP compared to ASML’s. They don’t need to claim Taiwan only for TSM
China is interested in TSM's factories. The whole "China Only" thing is just a fairy tale they tell their people to justify their true intentions.
I don't think moving TSM's operations would be nearly as simple as relocating their HQ. The fabs themselves are what matter, and you can't just pack up a $20B facility and ship it overseas. Building new cutting-edge fabs takes years and massive capital investment. Plus if tensions escalate to that point, I doubt China would just sit back and let them transfer all their IP and talent out of Taiwan.
Right now some of the risk is priced in so I wouldn't call it undervalued. TSM is too big to fail without denting the global economy. So the more likely scenario is that if China invades, TSM would move their HQ and IP somewhere else. Perhaps Singapore or Korea.
RKLB and ASTS have taken off while I am holding my NBIS, META, RDDT, GOOG, TSM calls. Best case scenario, I will be rotating my insane profits I will be having \~ end of February to buy the RKLB, LUNR, ASTS dip. Realistically though, I am going to be -60% and buy $ROPE with what is left.
Yeah, I get what you’re saying. Keeping control on the mainland is definitely their top priority, and any aggressive move would bring a strong response from allies. So in your view, what risks should someone watch out for when holding TSM long term? Appreciate it
Yeah, I’m with you on that So, what’s your take on holding TSM long-term right now And how do you usually go about learning more about the company
Totally agree with you. I bought TSM back in May mostly ‘cause of some news and buzz. Right now I’m up about 50%that’s just the reality. If you’re holding it too, I’d love to hear your take on its gains so far and any risks you see
Totally agree, TSM's 3/4/5nm lines are running at full speed. 41% YoY growth says it all. What's your price target fou it?
Geopolitical risk is definitely one of the potential long term risks we have to keep in mind, but for now, I don't think it really affects TSM's value.
I bought a tiny bit of TSM at $97 3 years ago and am so mad I didnt buy more. In fact I should buy some more now. i doubt it will go down anytime soon
TSM is hands down a great company but the geopolitical risk around Taiwan is always hanging out there and the possibility of China moving on Taiwan is something the market just cannot fully ignore What I keep wondering is whether that uncertainty is already priced into TSM or if it is going to keep weighing on the valuation going forward and I would really like to hear what people think about that risk premium
TSM will continue to print money until actual competitive fabs become operational in other countries. Or until China invades. You know everything consumer (and some enterprise) is made there right? Chips for smartphones, tablets, laptops, desktops, GPU etc. And more. It doesn't matter that AI collapses, there will be some loss, but demand for everything else will still remain.
I totally agree with what you are saying and it does not change the fact that this is a successful company I have been holding TSM for a while now I started my core position around 172 and kept adding to it from June through July this year I am up over 50 percent at this point Do you think it makes sense to exit now or just keep holding And are you invested in this company too I would love to hear your take Thanks
You're biased because you're holding TSM. None of the questions you asked have anything to do with AI Hype or the economic prospects of AI. There are only two questions that really matter there: (1) Is anyone making a lot of money off AI; (2) The answer to (1) is "No" and so the follow up is, will anyone ever make a lot of money off AI? No one really knows the answer to (2), but it sure doesn't look good.
I am all in NBIS, META, GOOG, RDDT, TSM I can't afford it
TSM makes Apple chips, AMD processors, NVidia gpus. TSM can basically charge what they want, as they are the “last man standing” with leading edge processes for chips
Wouldn't TSM production orders be a trailing indicator?
Foundry revenue climbs 17% in Q3 on AI demand; TSMC leads market Dec. 22, 2025 8:24 AM ETTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Stock, TXN Stock, INTC Stock, SSNLF Stock, IFNNY StockAMD, NVDA, AVGOBy: Arundhati Sarkar, SA News Editor
Winners win. Can’t believe it hasn’t been mentioned yet. I think we see $TSM be a top performing stock in 2026. (It was in 2025 as well)
Brookfield, Amazon, uber, alphabet, TSM, SPGI, Mastercard, novo nordisk, mercado libre. I own all of these and I think they will give a strong market beating return in the next 5 years
You're goddamn right I do and I don't think it's anywhere NEAR the top. I've watched this stock for 8 years now since I first invested. 2,000 shares in at 136 I believe in 2019 and another 1000 at in early '23. NVDA is cheap right now and I realize there are some ugly Macro conditions...which is why I went a year out. They're going to come in around 70B in Q4 and that's assuming no revenue from China(and I think there will be some) and I think their Q2 F'27 earnings will be \~90B, net revenue of \~50B). I think the whole "The AI bubble has popped," story is nonsense and the next cycle of earnings will prove this. Hell, I think THIS cycle has proven it's not a bubble, it was just due a little bit of a correction, but I think AVGO going from \~425 after hours during the earnings to 325 is a gross overreaction to them beating across the board. Even Oracle had a decent earnings and it's down... what, 30%(I don't have a position in ORCL). I read the comments of the designer of Ironwood regarding the sell-off of NVDA after rumors they may sell their TPUs(no different than when META was on the verge of their own big breakthrough in '22 and '24 or AMZN every year) about the NVDA selloff and how clueless the market is about hardware and the demand. Cloud service is supply constrained and I think NVDA will hit 275 end of calendar 2026. That's my belief and that's where I'm putting my money, but I think saying "the top is in," on Nvidia at \~180 or whatever it is exactly, is... not accurate. I we're going to see several million H200's sold to China this year and AI CapEx shows... absolutely no sign of slowing. 500B in backlogged sales through the end of Fiscal '27 without OpenAI and without China. 200 contracts, bought last week when it was trading at about 172 cost me about \~215K I should probably be hedging given my position, but... I'm not going to. I could sell right now and take a... little 10K win, but I think this stock just pulled back, corrected and it's getting ready for another run. Maybe not until after next earnings. I think it'll likely trade mostly sideways until we get more clarity on China, but I think it'll sail past a 5T market cap to 6T in 2026. I'm primarily an investor and I just picked up another 7500 shares of AMZN... which I think is the safest of the large caps next year ahead of only TSM, but I liked the pullback. If I lose the entire \~220, I'm fine. If it goes the way I think it will... I'll be out by March and re-evaluating. It's just play money. My retirement is in Vanguard, my Roth in Fidelity. My cash is in a separate fidelity account. Only other thing I may do is buy 5-6 more BTC, but... I'm holding off.
TSM is one of my core holdings, they've shown to have a successful business strategy and are the backbone of semiconductor manufacturing right now. I personally think China is going to continue advancement on their own semiconductor companies and may possibly get on their level in the next 5-10 years, invasion of Taiwan is unlikely especially due to this. TSM and customers have roadmaps of the next several process nodes and have already successfully produced the next couple of generations, it isn't stopping anytime soon.
Google. The latest TPUs, Ironwood, are rumored to be twice as efficient as the best from Nvidia, Blackwell. That means the same sized data center, power, cooling gets twice the output. That is just huge. There are so many reasons why it is likely it is true on the efficiency. One is the fact that Google is using N3P at TSM for Ironwood, V7 TPU. Where Nvidia is using 4NP for Blackwell. Google has already contracted with Foxconn to do the assembly of the boards.
That’s really great. I made 15% in my main account which was remarkable because the vol was minimal. Max draw down was 3%. I caught the bottom in Google and made some good trades in Applied TSM and ASML with minimal risk from where I bought in April. I owned a good sized gold position until October. Made 57% in my Roth taking highest conviction bets (lot of google here, too) Made 7% :/ in my smaller Ira being conservative - names like CNI, Pepsi, Vici
Where is NVDA/AAPL/AMD/GOOG/AVGO/INTC going to get its chips if TSM goes belly up ??? LOL