TSM

nycmuin

I also have a similar position in TSM, I am holding - demand for and production of chips aren't slowing down anytime soon.

Plus_Seesaw2023

Why not ?!? The same people said the same thing about BTC when it was at $45,000!!! The same people also said the same thing about NVDA when the stock was at $50! The same people said the same thing about TSM at $80. MSTR will return to its ATH sooner or later, just as BTC always has...

Wowmuchrya

Lol that’s delusional. You could see the put stacking for OPEX 2 weeks out at 6500. They will move the market to where they want it to go. There were huge unusual puts that came in 2 weeks ago, and they weren’t hedges, for TSM, AMD, Micron, LRCX, Oklo, and Sandisk. Yes the price went up after they purchased them, but they didn’t care. Here’s an example. These were purchased 3 weeks ago. TSM went up $10 and this institution never exited their position. Then suddenly boom, “ai crash” (manufactured fake fear brought on by planned selling lmao). https://preview.redd.it/6uv9d6m93v2g1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3d63400abcf99457fb3c475a3dec518ce4238e10

-B-H-

TSM makes the best microchips and has had a pullback

orangeyougladiator

NVDA are literally fudging their numbers and have a $20bn stockpile of chips no one wants. They say their demand is thru the roof but they’re trying to realize profits today they might never see. If they take their foot off the gas with TSM then others will jump in their place. They’re fucked.

brjh1990

GOOG, RDDT, MU, AMZN, TSM are my top picks right now, I have recurring buys on those. Another (small) position I just started is HOOD. Looking for a really nasty drop before considering NVDA.

Future_Bruce_Wayne

Netflix probably around 130-150 decent pricing. TSM or GOOGL. I would stay away from NVDA imo unless they crash super hard then enter like a 180 leap for them

-B-H-

TSM has had a big pullback and will continue to make the best microchips

New_Ad_1682

I bought dips on TSM and made 200% buying puts on BE.

FinishWarm1746

My TSM calls are so cooked right now. 57 days left but I’ll probably have to roll

purpleinme

My poor TSM calls. Time to close the app.

easylife12345

Bought APP earlier in the week. Sold it in the early morning pop. Didn‘t expect the market to drop like a rock. Bought it back in the last hour. Should have bought it back in the last 15 minutes…. It will rally hard when the market is done falling. Also added some NVDA, TSM, and a few dividend stocks. GLTA

Dangleboard_Addict

Over a long enough time frame I'm sure those will print, especially TSM

git_push_yourself

I got TSM, Nvidia, and AMD in my M1 finance long term account

Dangleboard_Addict

So you wanted to invest in infrastructure for AI but didn't think to buy TSM, Nvidia, AMD or even Intel?  Y'know, the hardware manufacturers? Sorry but you belong here

purpleinme

I sold my April TSM calls this morning for big gains, then rebought them at $285 when the Nasdaq went -1%. Boy I should have waited lol.

purpleinme

I bought back into TSM at $285 dip lol oooof

option-trader

So, calls on TSM?

moldyjellybean

My question is shouldn’t TSM actually be the most valuable company in the world. Been asking this for 10+ years. Apple, NVDA, AMD, INTC, QCOM, GOOG, AMZN, META, MSFT don’t all these companies depend on TSM . It’s not like INTC or Samsung can make these chips.

Poundcake2RedVelvet

wow, must be a great time to invest in TSM

imrickjamesbioch

Pass… Open ai isn’t even a publicly traded company, hemorrhaging cash/opex costs and their price structure is dumb as fuck. Coreweave is carrying too much debt for my taste. I’m all in on NBIS, NVDA, TSM, AVGO, and the Goog. Might jump in on Apple if it dips under $250, maybe ORCL/NFLX. But Im mainly stacking shares on the 5 companies I’ve listed. I don’t feel the need to gamble on starts ups or companies outside the mag 7 + 2 (AVGO/TSM) as when the AI wars settle, these companies will still be the major playas!

Historical_Air_8997

That’s a dumb take. 30% of ASML’s revenue is from providing maintenance on old machines, that isn’t going to stop and if TSM and other customers cut their budget for new machines the maintenance costs are just going to increase giving ASML high margin consistent business. The net margins on the installed base segment is about 40% vs 25-30% for new machine sales. So ASML would be fine. It’s nothing like me doing everything I can to avoid updating my Epson printer and buying off brand ink

Historical_Air_8997

But who makes the lithography machines for TSM? ASML

DrB00

I just figured TSM is safer because even if AI bursts everyone still needs their chips made by TSM for anything and everything. If AI bursts NVDA is going back to making video cards for PC enthusiasts and that's about it. Since AMD is the go to for a lot of console manufacturers.

Historical_Air_8997

The real shovels play is ASML. But TSM and NVDA, shit even AMD, are all pretty solid companies to own and at the forefront of the AI boom/bubble/revolution

FinishWarm1746

Well looks like my TSM calls are saved :D

Stocks_N_Bondage

My calls are already in place. Too many to list but a few that I like that did well today that I am holding: AVGO GE TSM Also have calls and or long positions on SOFI AMGN UUUU GOOG Also just went long ARKK

Beginning-Fig-9089

TSM manufacturers the chips so that makes sense

EPgasdoc

TSM up too

29InchWaistOrStarve

What makes u think their revenues aren’t real? They have more demand than supply. Jensen is trying to get TSM to ramp up production

HND171

TSM calls

purpleinme

Are my April $280 TSM calls cooked after hours?

bearhunter429

#Jensen is going to announce that there are supply issues and TSM isn't building enough GPUs for them. There is a possibility that he will hint at a partnership with Intel. LMAO🤌

_Apostate_

Did YOLO gamble on TSM calls instead of NVIDIA for earnings today. Half the IV so no IV crush, should move in tandem with Mvidia if earnings are good.

BallsOfStonk

This is: 1.) A surefire way to get a government handout. 2.) A surefire way to run the company into the ground, in perhaps the single hardest, low margin, no room for error business on the planet. There is a reason TSM is the only remaining cutting edge fab on earth. There is a reason Intel and AMD both stumbled and failed here. It is perhaps the hardest science problem that exists in modern business, and if you fuck it up for 18 months and miss a die shrink, your business essentially goes under.

thesexycucumber

Trimmed down my TSM and AMD shares, this tingle in my bumhole is the sell signal.

icecoldyerr

I am currently doing this with TSM. In at $155, lets go AI/Crypto/Semiconductors/Graphics Cards!

HotTruth999

TSM is easily replaceable. Idiots were saying the same thing about Intel. TSM doesn’t create anything.

purpleinme

That’d be pretty fucking cool if TSM could go back to $305. Thank you!

NotGucci

However, NVDA said during their investor day they have demand in 2027. They recently told TSMC to increase capacity. Also, TSM monthly report shows their month ever.

double-beans

Isn’t that the problem though, Taiwan holds too much strategic importance and is not capable of its own defense? All it would take is a U.S. debt crisis while being bogged down in another foreign war. China could seize the opportunity, even if it means that TSM factory gets sabotaged in the process. Sure it’s far-fetched, but to quote Lenin “There are decades where nothing happens and weeks where decades happen.”

peatoast

TSM can be taken over by China unfortunately.

Redtoolbox1

I own TSM but worry about the geopolitical effects long term.

Effective-Leave-999

TSM

Aggressive_Change602

i would go with either TSM or Google, it's kinda funny to me how TSM is not being talked enough, we are talking about a company that manufacture everyone's chip, one of a kind, irreplaceable

Inevitable-Air-1712

No, if TSM were to suddenly be wiped out, the entire semi industry would grind to a halt. TSM for security reasons has their 2nm chip to only be produced in Taiwan. Those machines are to be destroyed is the PRC was to invade. Factories outside of Taiwan can produce 4nm - 5nm chips which isn't cutting edge. Also you can't just buy the machine from ASML and make your own line. All companies tried to vertically integrate but it failed massively. TSM succeeded because they just put their entire business focus on that. Also it's not just the machines but the people who operate the line have the expertise to produce those chips at such efficiency (low counts of defects). The next option if TSM was to go down would realistically be Samsung but that's like giving your chip design to a rival who has conflict of interest. Then there's intel who are more likely to produce defective chips than effective ones. No one even comes close to TSM when it comes to foundry. That's why the entire semi industry depends on that one country and if Taiwan was to get invaded, the entire tech industry is going to grind to a halt.

FinishWarm1746

Why TSM why 🥲

effyochicken

It's because I bought ETH and BTC in August. I'm the ultimate inverse investor - somehow I'm always on the wrong side of just regular picks. If all signs make me THINK it's going up, I buy and it crashes next week. TSM was me too, apparently. Bought at $300. Remember US Steel? Yeah guess who bought a $53 call option right before they announced the $52 sale, rendering my position worthless and unable to close. I could just start listing out stock after stock - they all do the opposite the second I buy in on anything.

purpleinme

Will TSM make it to $314 by April 2026? Yes or no?

prana_fish

This is like the 5th fucking time I've heard "NVDA will sAvE teh MaRkEt" over the past 2 years. You dumb fucks. Look at the megacap earnings reactions lately. Everyone already knows they will beat (hyperscalar and $TSM guides). This week is all about milking the theta and weekly vega. They will go back up, but if you think "they" will pay out on your cheap $200c weekly immediately, I've got a bridge to sell you that you'll soon live under.

Sea_Pear5265

That might be true in the long term, but players like AMZN, META, and GOOG can afford to make that gamble. These are AA rated companies who can borrow at cheaper rates that the US Treasury can. We won't know for a while if their debt fueled CAPEX bet pays off or not. In the short to medium term, huge continued demand from those companies for the products made by NVDA, TSM, ASML, and WDC figures to only get stronger on the back of these bond offerings.

crazyace9119

ACM research, TSM, and NEE

Sea_Pear5265

Maybe I'm stupid, but I don't understand why the consensus seems to be that META, Oracle, and Amazon issuing massive amounts of bonds to fund data center CAPEX is bearish for AI writ large. Won't that money be just be used to purchase more TSM and NVDA chips? It should be bullish for chip makers and ASML and data storage companies like STX and WDC.

29InchWaistOrStarve

If Nvidia moves higher after earnings will TSM go with it? It so it might be better to play TSM calls to avoid IV crush

purpleinme

Jesus bro, I bought 12k of TSM April 2026 calls this morning and already lost $1500 lol

adamsmith93

30 is virtually a guarantee. They are powering the AI revolution. EVERYONE needs them. They only need TSM and ASML

Abe2025

TSM just joined the red gang lol we are cooked today

prana_fish

Shut the fuck up about LoNG tErM. These motherfuckers just sold out of home builders in one quarter shown by the last 13F. They also held $TSM for just one quarter selling out before the real run-up. This folksy long term image Buffet and his firm has cultivated needs to stop. They're as degenerate and swing as much as everyone else, except they are way too much of pussies to take real risks with conviction.

prana_fish

For all those glazing Buffet on $GOOG, congrats on your calls, but remember he sold out of $TSM in the $80-90 range, can't remember which exactly, because was stupid in thinking China would invade Taiwan. recently failed to bottom tick the $UNH knife. Frankly the 13Fs revealed last time not one of them did. $OXY. Nuff said. $GOOG is odd. I can't tell if it's an endorsement of AI in the future, or he just saw the cheapest MAG7 and YOLO'd.

TestingLifeThrow1z

28M, I have my 401k matched, roth ira the boring VOO, VT portfolios but I wanted advice on my brokerage stock portfolio. Holdings: Please advice any holdings I should add. I added companies that I believe can't be replaced in the long term for what they do and are diversified around the world. Cash: 27% QQQ: 18% GOOGL: 13% META: 9% MSFT: 9% BRK-B: 8% TSM: 6% ASML: 5% MELI: 5%

theawarenessfund

Great picks on NVDA/TSM early. Here are some pure plays I'm watching that haven't had the 300%+ run yet: **1. AVGO (Broadcom) - AI Networking** You have the GPU layer (NVDA). AVGO is the networking layer—custom ASIC chips that connect AI clusters. Every hyperscaler needs this, regardless of who wins the AI model race. Trading at 25x earnings vs NVDA's 40x. Not cheap, but less consensus. **2. CEG (Constellation Energy) - Nuclear Power** You mentioned nuclear, but CEG is the purest play on AI datacenter power demand. AI will consume 8% of US grid by 2030 (up from 2% today). Microsoft signed a 20-year deal with CEG for 835MW. This is picks-and-shovels for the entire AI buildout. **3. VRT (Vertiv) - Datacenter Cooling** Unsexy but essential. 40MW AI racks generate insane heat. Every datacenter needs specialized cooling. VRT has 60%+ market share in high-density cooling systems. Multi-decade tailwind as AI scales. **Why these over autonomous/humanoid robots:** \- Autonomous driving = 5-10 year regulatory slog (TSLA is only pure play) \- Humanoid robots = too early (no revenue, all R&D) \- AI infrastructure = happening NOW, 10-20 year locked contracts Check 13F filings—elite funds are loading these three while retail chases the next shiny thing. Not financial advice. Just where I'm positioned for the next decade.

theawarenessfund

I agree with the framework. My bet: **AI infrastructure** (not AI models). Everyone's chasing NVDA and "AI stocks." The asymmetric play is one layer down—the picks and shovels. **Why AI infrastructure fits your criteria:** **a) New tech + changing behavior:** AI datacenters will consume 8% of US grid by 2030 (up from \~2% today). That's a 4x power buildout. **b) Don't need genius picking:** Buy the entire stack: \- **CEG** (nuclear power for datacenters) \- **AVGO** (custom AI networking chips) \- **TSM** (fab capacity bottleneck) **c) Early + uncertain:** Retail is still buying NVDA. Elite funds are positioning in infrastructure (check recent 13F filings—CEG showed up in 4 top funds before Microsoft's nuclear deal went public). **d) Low entry price:** CEG trades at 12x earnings vs NVDA at 40x. You're getting AI exposure at utility valuations. **The bet:** If AI scales, these companies have locked-in revenue for 10-20 years. If AI bubble pops, you own boring utilities that survive. **Historical parallel:** 1990s internet boom—Cisco and Oracle won, [Pets.com](https://pets.com/) died. Not financial advice, but this is where I'm seeing asymmetric opportunity.

theawarenessfund

Unpopular opinion: Most retail investors are chasing the wrong part of the AI stack. Everyone wants NVDA (training chips). Elite funds are buying infrastructure: **Broadcom (AVGO)** – Custom AI networking chips. Lower multiple than NVDA, less competition, locked-in contracts. 7 elite funds added positions last quarter, avg +22% position size. **Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)** – Fab capacity bottleneck. If you can't make chips fast enough, you control pricing. **Constellation Energy (CEG)** – Nuclear power. AI datacenters will consume 8% of US grid by 2030 (up from \~2% now). Microsoft just signed a 20-year deal for 835MW. **The thesis:** AI doesn't scale on hype. It scales on semiconductors, power, and cooling. Every AI company needs these. **My backtest:** AI infrastructure basket shows +38.92% (6mo) vs SPY +17.12%. Not as flashy as NVDA's best days, but more durable. This is picks-and-shovels investing. Not as exciting, but historically more profitable.

theawarenessfund

Unpopular opinion: Most retail investors are chasing the wrong part of the AI stack. Everyone wants NVDA (training chips). Elite funds are buying infrastructure: **Broadcom (AVGO)** – Custom AI networking chips. Lower multiple than NVDA, less competition, locked-in contracts. 7 elite funds added positions last quarter, avg +22% position size. **Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)** – Fab capacity bottleneck. If you can't make chips fast enough, you control pricing. **Constellation Energy (CEG)** – Nuclear power. AI datacenters will consume 8% of US grid by 2030 (up from \~2% now). Microsoft just signed a 20-year deal for 835MW. **The thesis:** AI doesn't scale on hype. It scales on semiconductors, power, and cooling. Every AI company needs these. **My backtest:** AI infrastructure basket shows +38.92% (6mo) vs SPY +17.12%. Not as flashy as NVDA's best days, but more durable. This is picks-and-shovels investing. Not as exciting, but historically more profitable.

theawarenessfund

Unpopular opinion: Most retail investors are chasing the wrong part of the AI stack. Everyone wants NVDA (training chips). Elite funds are buying infrastructure: **Broadcom (AVGO)** – Custom AI networking chips. Lower multiple than NVDA, less competition, locked-in contracts. 7 elite funds added positions last quarter, avg +22% position size. **Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)** – Fab capacity bottleneck. If you can't make chips fast enough, you control pricing. **Constellation Energy (CEG)** – Nuclear power. AI datacenters will consume 8% of US grid by 2030 (up from \~2% now). Microsoft just signed a 20-year deal for 835MW. **The thesis:** AI doesn't scale on hype. It scales on semiconductors, power, and cooling. Every AI company needs these. **My backtest:** AI infrastructure basket shows +38.92% (6mo) vs SPY +17.12%. Not as flashy as NVDA's best days, but more durable. This is picks-and-shovels investing. Not as exciting, but historically more profitable.

dharmeshsb

Backlog was good for business for TSM. Might be good for NVIDIA as well.

-IQ200

If you want the shovel seller, it should be TSM. AAPL, NVDA, AMD & TSLA rely on their chip manufacturing capability. 👀

lurker165473

Ok neat, should be good for my TSM calls

lurker165473

Why t. TSM call holder

iambroke7

TSM gonna moon on Monday

TestingLifeThrow1z

28M, I have my 401k matched, roth ira the boring VOO, VT portfolios but I wanted advice on my brokerage stock portfolio. Holdings: Please advice any holdings I should add. I added companies that I believe can't be replaced in the long term for what they do. Cash: 27% QQQ: 18% GOOGL: 13% META: 9% MSFT: 9% BRK-B: 8% TSM: 6% ASML: 5% MELI: 5%

FuzzyDynamics

You need to understand the ecosystem better. It’s the most complex supply chain ever devised by man and what TSM does is completely different from what Apple does. Apple silicon in this context means a finished SOM integrated into an Apple product.

easylife12345

I try to keep 2-3% cash laying around for when there is a selloff. Also have margin to deploy if the selloff is deep enough. Bought some TSM this morning early. Tried to add to my AMPL position, but limit didn’t get filled. NVDA earning next week should be very strong, and tech should rally hard. That and we are about to start the Santa clause rally in December. Nothing guaranteed, but reasonable chance.

db_deuce

I view it more a toggle between risk on and risk off. Risk off means more T, VZ, Bonds, SCHD, etc. Risk on means more Sofi, NVDA, TSM, AMZN, etc. For the 401k, just put it in a low cost index fund. Most people starting in the 401k never have enough money to play the timing the market thing and it's meant to accumulate and invest relentlessly.

FinishWarm1746

Over leveraged on TSM so I can’t make other moves 

Any_Wolverine_8512

So, you can look now and see that TSM is up about 1.6% and fslr has regained all of that 4% that it was down earlier. I will hit the sell button here in just a few minutes most likely and head to my full-time job. After tax reserves, that's about a $2,500 morning. Not too shabby. It's not the adrenaline rush of something doubling in a day but it is a low stress way to make six figures in a year.

Any_Wolverine_8512

I agree with you that today is definitely one of those days, at least regarding tech related stocks. It's a bloodbath. If you look across the market, you see the money moving into food and beverage, non-tech indexes and the energy sector. For example, TSM is down 2.0 right now. FSLR is down almost 4%. I'm not telling you what to do. But it's probably worth pulling up the YTD charts on those two.

Any_Wolverine_8512

This year: TSM, LLY, Google class A

FinishWarm1746

Why TSM why 😭

wokuhambasj

TSM and Nebius are both shit AI stocks, sold everything overnight with large losses but could have been more. Enjoy bagholders.

ProfessionalOkra29

The market wasn't pricing LRCX, TSM, AMAT to only 2x in 5 years lol

Negative_Win_5117

There is no AI bubble. I work for a major VAR and it’s all anyone is talking about. We (the engineers) are all using it daily for our jobs. Almost all of my colleagues have side projects we are working on trying to figure out what kind of crazy shit we can do with it. Our customers bring it up in every meeting. The manufacturers are all scrambling to integrate these solutions into their products. Some of them are going to be successful and will leap frog their competitors. Data center capacity is growing at insane rates. The amount of power it takes to power one rack is going to exceed what we used to spec for an entire data center. It’s going to be volatile for companies like mine and for the manufacturers and for the software companies. Chip demand will ebb and flow a bit but it isn’t going to come crashing down. LRCX, TSM, AMAT are the safest long term plays. They will pull back at some point here but are going to 2x from today’s highs in 5 years. NVDA and AMD will be much more volatile. Every major pullback is a buying opportunity. tl;dr All the news from the past few weeks is to scare you into selling before the next run to ATH’s.

wokuhambasj

Fuck this im out. Sold Nebius at $85 after buying it $120. And TSM at $280 after buying it $310. Both dogshit AI stocks, lost 45% of my portfolio this week from margin. Chart looks like they will keep going down so I sold overnight.

icecoldyerr

TSM

meNriveBabylon

I just realized we pumped yesterday over news that TSM reported a much slower projected growth than expected. There was not much movement in the stock so the market interpreted it as bullish.

mere_dictum

Emerson Electric (EMR) has done pretty well since I first bought it three years ago, though I wouldn't say it's been spectacular. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) has done quite well over the last six months. People think its stock is very closely tied to Nvidia's, but I have a hunch there just might be a divergence in TSM's favor. As usual, past performance is no guarantee of future anything.

Xzlk

I think it’s more of a present risk for TSM. China makes a move and hell breaks loose.

Xzlk

TSM is obviously a great company to own, but are they not a singular headline away from halving? Surprised it has ran as much as it has.

Average_TechSpec

Im not an apple guy because what theyre trying to accomplish is harder, more difficult, yet more rewarding at the end of the day. Ive been in TSM since 60$ back in 2021. NVDA... well I never bought it once so I cant say much

MaterialGuy007

Market needs some consolidation.  Suggestions META should buy APP for $200 bil and dominate mobile ads/next gen apps GOOG should buy QCOM (PE like 15) and dominate next gen mobile gadgets NVDA should buy TSM so China does not attack Taiwan - if they need it guess what it costs $100 trillion - then people can decide - what’s next Singapore?

MurkTwain

That’s what I did except Apple and NVDA instead of meta. TSM has been the golden pony here on Reddit for as long as I can remember but it never pops off

Retropixl

There’s much more to this as to why they aren’t a smart choice. Just invest in SMHX or TSM, over the long run all of those companies will end up being the beneficiaries of all of this stuff.

banditcleaner2

We're in a new age where you don't need to be the one actually producing your product physically to make a lot of money from it. And that shouldn't be surprising. The hardest part of making NVDA GPUs is not TSM manufacturing them. It's the intelligence of cutting edge design led by the absolute brightest minds at Nvidia. Although, admittedly, even manufacturing cutting edge GPUs is still difficult, which is how TSM still has a 45% profit margin. But that doesn't beat NVDA's 55-70% profit margin.

banditcleaner2

That's kind of the point. We're not really in bubble territory in the same way that the dot com bubble was. Now, there will absolutely be AI-adjacent stocks that will get crushed from here over the next 5-10 years. But the kings? TSM, NVDA, AVGO, and mag7? I do not think so.

Johnmcslobberdong

Tell me which companies have an 80PE Amazon 34 Google 28 Meta 27 NVDA 50 TSM 32 Are you cherry picking to make things sound worse than they are? If your argument is everything is gonna crash cus Tesla and pltr you’re just an angry bear who can’t make money 🤷🏻‍♂️

FinishWarm1746

Come on TSM do the thing 😭 

NotGucci

>AMD rallies after CEO Lisa Su says AI business to grow more than 60% a year for 3 to 5 years That's wild. Can't really have any market correction as long as tech and semi keep on delivering. For those of you curious TSM released their monthly sales per Taiwan law, and guess what it's their best month ever.

Fringelunaticman

Not really. NVDA is making billions, TSM is making billions, so is GOOG, MFST, AAPL, AMD, MU, etc. And they arent spending an obscene amount of CAPEX compared to their financials. People wonder if they'll be able to monetize it, though. And remember when META was going all in on VR. It has spent an approximate 73B on it. Has it hurt that company?

FrenchieChase

My thesis is the same as yours. I hold MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, BABA, and TSM.

igloofu

> Sorry was there a poll taken recently of all tsmc share holders on how they valued tsmc i missed out on? Yes, you apparently did miss this poll. It changes, and is retaken almost daily. You can find the real time results [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSM/)