TSM

icydragon_12

Micron is my favorite name at the moment, but it's not for the faint of heart. high vol, high risk. Currently, the stock is pricing in a >70% crash to memory prices. That could happen, and historically has happened. But after I looked into the capex plans of memory makers, the schedule of wafer additions, I bet it doesn't happen for at least another year if not 2-3. Moreover, HBM prices/volume is being locked. My base case is that memory prices fall by 40-50% sometime after 2027 and even then MU is worth 1500-2k. TSM looks attractive to me as well and I recently bought, but obv if ASML increases their prices that will be at least marginally negative to all the companies buying their equipment.

Kooky-Address-4598

2. how exactly? the hyperscalers guided higher capex for 2027 also why would your thesis play out just for the memory stocks and not other semis (TSM/ASML/AMAT/AVGO/etc.) ?

onemanstrong

Thanks. I also held AMZN, MSFT, NFLX, and TSM.

Jerikolol

TSM? AMD? some photonics?

steady_compounder

I would be careful selling a broad index fund to swap into two individual semiconductor names unless this is a small high-conviction satellite bet. ASML and TSM are both great businesses, but that move is still a big jump in concentration and cycle risk. Usually the better question is whether you want core exposure or a deliberate tilt, not whether two stocks can replace the index.

Apprehensive-Mine364

I still am struggling to understand what it means when an agency anouces a price target.... Like TSM seems undervalued but I feel like you would need an army of autists to calculate forward value.

icydragon_12

I'm a professional analyst and just built out models on these for my PA. TSM legitimately seems undervalued to me after this exercise. I modelled out their their production and costs by node. I put in fairly conservative assumptions, and expect about 40% upside in one year. ASML appears to be trading almost exactly at fair value at the moment. I'd expect them to move sideways unless they raise their prices. Which... honestly I don't understand why they don't do this. They're a damn monopoly.

CivilizedSteve

Nice. TSM and ASML IMO are two of the more durable supply AI-related buildout stocks. I own them both.

Apprehensive-Mine364

Only way I'm selling TSM is if it goes to 480

Apprehensive-Mine364

I purchased 1 share of UGA as a hedge against the cost of gas going up. I lost way to much on ASYD and decided fuck this I'm not waiting on earnings....and dropped out for a 22% loss. Fuck my life. Still need TSM to go up to 428 either by 4pm or in the aftermarket hours.

Apprehensive-Mine364

Thank god. My largest position is in TSM and I'm unsure how the bubble will affect them. My other positions are finance stocks, steel manufacturing, and then index funds. I wonder if I should sell TSM break even at 425 and hold it in cash until the crash or some major other event that let's me find a sweet low entry point below average.

Apprehensive-Mine364

Semi is trading high preopen. TSM, ASYS etc all up

KnownButton8327

I disagree because even if we believe your sentiment that it’s hard to make AI profitable for a lot of smaller companies, there is no stopping the AI arms race between China and the USA. It’s geopolitical now and the genie can’t be put back in the bottle. Not to mention other countries who are in line for sovereign AI build outs. So I guess it depends what end you’re betting on, but the core of NVDA, TSM, ASML, American energy companies, data center cooling, and high speed networking, etc is going to make bank by real TAM expansion

PooPooPointBoiz

Kind of. I have just held a position and it takes months and months to recover. I got fucked on META in Oct of last year and held for months to see break even. I got fucked on MSFT this year, got fucked on AMZN this year, got fucked on TSM this year. And I always just held and held until it recovered. Ironically, in a lot of instances cutting my losses would have saved me a shit ton of heart ache.

PooPooPointBoiz

I don't know. Maybe. But after TSM goes up 5%, how the fuck was I supposed to know it would go up another 3%, then anoither 2% after hours?

PooPooPointBoiz

Dude fuck stupid ass TSM. Of course it shits the bed when I hold, then once I sell for a loss, it fucking rockets. Shit is like fucking clockwork dude. Literally what the actual fuck.

Apprehensive-Mine364

Nah, friday. Today TSM rallied thanks to announcement regarding packaging development and the amazon google earnings. Now I'm only down 3% from my entry point. I need it to go green so I can exit before the AI bubble pops.

PooPooPointBoiz

I don't fucking get it. How the fuck can META miss earnings and drop like 10-ish % with a weak out look. And AAPL, the most valuable company in the world, can grow some insane numbers, for such a mature company, beat earnings expectations, and drop 8-9% at the lowest? That's some grade A bullshit. And what's more bullshit is that I got fucked on both of them. Totally missed out on fucking AMZN and MSFT. Just got fucked on AAPL and META. And TSM and GOOGL for their earnings, for that matter.

PooPooPointBoiz

Fuck my goddamn life dude. Got smoked on META calls, got smoked on AAPL calls. How in the fuck am I 0 for 2, when MSFT and AMZN are ripping to the fucking heavens???? When I played MSFT And AMZN the last 2 earnings, I GOT FUCKED. Oh yeah, and I got fucked on TSM earnings a few weeks ago, and GOOGL earnings last week. How in the actual fuck does this happen, that everything that I touch dies? Then there are half brain retards out there full porting into MU or SNDK calls yesterday and waking up to a fucking million dollars today. What the actual fuck dude.

slowpoke2018

Send it the public financials for stocks I'm considering as an .xls- I have a pro sub - and it comes back with its analysis. It's actually been amazing prediction-wise for TSM and INTC...least until this week...though I'm not sure anyone saw that coming

Vlisa

ADRs always trade at a premium look at TSM

xxxMarilee

I've been selling when I break even. That's like a gain to me. How pathetic is that. After multi-day losses, one just needs time to relax and regroup. That's said, I only broke even on Avgo today. Waiting to see if TSM will do it for me.

Spac55

Situational Awareness, sells entire book. As semi crash possible push to margin call deleverage, as margin requirements skyrocketed. Another Archegos like crash for semi collapse last 3 week. Funds soon risk manage $STX $SNDK $WDC $AMD $INTC $AMD $AMAT $LRCX $TSM & sell semi

Apprehensive-Mine364

TSM says they are developing a packaging thingy magig to compete with intel

onelifestand101

Really? Even TSM? It’s down like 25% from ATH while releasing its best quarter results of all time. To me, that’s a screaming buy at sub 400.

thethor1231

Need TSM and MU to recover a bit now

Helpful_9532

TSM and Samsung around 2T market cap. INTC at 600-800b market cap for the only US advance semi foundry seems reasonable to me. I'm full port aswell

PooPooPointBoiz

Yeah, I'm "young" I guess in the sense that I'm not 60. But I'm somewhat taking risky plays to build up my fucking nest egg because I started so late. I was all in on META and TSM today and got absolutely fucked. I did go to the gym tonight though. But I don't have friends. Money is pretty fuckin deep though. Money gives you options in life.

PooPooPointBoiz

Sigh dude. Got fucked on TSM. Got fucked on META. MSFT which I got fucked on over all of June, fucking rockets, and of course I'm not in it. Fuck my life dude. I'm 20k in the hole as of right now, probably going to be further down tomorrow and into next week. My life is fucking shit dude.

New_Association9786

AMD, SCHD, VOO, TSM. That order of priority

Apprehensive-Mine364

I'm not....I don't even have options enabled. But TSM and ASYS consist of a major chunck of my portfolio and am getting raped by the market.

Apprehensive-Mine364

Still waiting for TSM for bounch back.

IBUYVOTES

Tomorrow? Going bargain hunting in semiconductors. There is value there if you look for it. AVGO is hanging out at 23x NTM, NVDA is 19x, ASML is \~28x, TSM is \~17x. Very attractive entry for some very strong moats.

PooPooPointBoiz

/b/ros. I feel kind of sick. I'm down over 20k on TSM/TSMX and META/METU. I'm not rich and while this isn't rent money, it's not money I can just light on fire and feel nothing about. Fuck my life dude. I supported MSFT through the last 2 earnings and got fucked. The one time I didn't, is the one where it fucking rockets. Fuck my life dude....

PooPooPointBoiz

Because maybe Zuck's retarded ass selling compute power would change something. Idk. I fucking knew that MSFT would fuck me if I bought in. But I guess it's just whatever I buy, I get fucked on. TSM and META this time around.

PooPooPointBoiz

Why the fuck did TSM almost recover today, then absolutely shit the fucking bed. What the actual fuck.

PooPooPointBoiz

What the actual fuck dude. I got fucked on TSM, I got fucked on META. MSFT fucking rockets, but of course it does, I didn't buy in this time. jesus christ fuck my life dude.

PooPooPointBoiz

Dude I'm fucking pissed. I got fucked by MSFT last earnings report. So I sat this one out and got into META instead this time. MSFT fucking rips 8% and META fucking SHITS THE FUCKING BED 10%. What the actual fuck dude. And I'm getting fucked on my TSM/TSMX position because of a fucking earth quake????? What the fuck kind of time line is this.

Apprehensive-Mine364

What you on about. My entire tech holdings are a blood bath on my portfolio. TSM I got in around the 420's Parked a few hundred in ASYS just to get bent over from the semi sell off.

JohnsHopkinsSimp

Calls on TSM since Korea keeps breaking circuits

Constant-Candle-4672

I wish I bought TSM stocks this month instead of last month

BobbyDigitali

TSM

fledgling66

No, I’m perfectly happy being overweight in CME, Berkshire, ADP, Eli Lilly, and RSP. Other than that it’s just Google and TSM, both of which I bought forever ago.

fe2sio4

My neighbor works for a pretty big fund and she told me they went all in on SK Hynix and TSM at the top and they are trailing SPX by -20% ytd and their biggest client withdrew like 8b or something

avsfan0829

TSMC FOLLOWING JAPAN EARTHQUAKE: WE ARE INSPECTING EQUIPMENT AT KUMAMOTO FAB, AND CONDUCTING RECOVERY. WE EXPECTS INSPECTIONS AND CALIBRATIONS TO TAKE SOME TIME. $TSM ... God lost money on semis too

Jerikolol

just waste management, the company (WM). PS: i was just kidding, im not going full Bboomer yet, but i did cut out memory (RIP) but keeping some semis TSM, NVDA (as 'value' semis).

PooPooPointBoiz

Fuck my life dude. I buy the dip and it keeps on FUCKING DIPPING. I don't buy the dip, and of course it fucking V's. Fuck my goddamn life and fuck TSM/TSMX

mightyblend

I don’t mind holding the bag but I doubt I’ll buy any more. The long-term prospects feel good to me. Same with TSM. I’m generally not buying much in the way of semis or memory otherwise.

PooPooPointBoiz

I'm literally fucking retarded dude. Fuck TSM/TSMU/TSMX. You goddamn fucks. They always wait for me to buy in then absolutely fucking shit the bed.

PooPooPointBoiz

I'm fucked dude. I saw TSM rocket after hours, so I bought into TSMU, just did a market order. I got fucked on the fill and now I'm down bad, and now it's overnight and I can't sell this shit until open tomorrow. And TSM is going back down. I got fucked bros. I got fucked.

manginamonologues

NVDA, MU, and TSM earnings still insane.

Apprehensive-Mine364

I'm pissed I didn't have money to buy the dip today after the quake. I saw TSM at 380...FUCKING 380. MY DCA for TSM is 420.

Apprehensive-Mine364

I just looked up TSM and looking into who holds major positions in it. Its all institutions. I am OK with this dip because if those people haven't used retail as an exit to liquidate the position that means they know the stock has to go back up to 900 a share. Looking forward to FED announcement this week. I am calling it, by Friday the war will be back on and oil and gas will spike. Not that any of this shit matters cuz the price at the pump isn't reflective of the current situation.

looool_k_libtard

Oh weird ontop of micron, TSM and Google all saying demand is crazy and capex is going up through 2027 easily, every AI adjacent company so far has reported stellar earnings. Almost like this is a forced liquidation event to clear out all the huge margin within semi/AI sector. Hmm.

ilikeusingmyhands

bought light into TSM & ORACLE today

OptionsHuduga

here we go with the "STX will make or break memory" moment and fairy tales. just like TSM and ASML saved semi's right? yeah remember that? yeah that was fun.

Apprehensive-Mine364

So analysts say TSM target is 500+ What timeline they looking at cuz based on the last month Semi stocks are fucked this year. Elections adding more noise to the market.

Deso718

TSM and NBIS. AMD calls

Apprehensive-Mine364

TSM is rallying

Apprehensive-Mine364

If I had more $ I'd be buying TSM bags at this cheap ass entry price and bag hold for as long as possible till at least hitting 500 a share.

Apprehensive-Mine364

Fuck TSM and fuck the earthquake

looool_k_libtard

Coke is up almost 7 fucking percent today. Absolutely nothing fundamentally has changed since June in any of these tech companies, Google and TSM confirmed demand remains crazy through 2027 with increased capex. And yet we’re seeing a literal dot com level burst, even faster.

onelifestand101

I sure hope so I sold a put on TSM $365 8/28 yesterday. Looked so juicy it was hard not to. But it’s looking even juicer today unless this is the bubble popping and I’m becoming a bag holder.

Captain-Vimes

Only semi worth buying still is TSM. 

AllCapNoBrake

If you're reading this, you have that TSM too. https://preview.redd.it/hg1cfcjqwyfh1.png?width=350&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b28d940ef621ff59552bf9f82543145001574da

Apprehensive-Mine364

Not into bonds but I do watch the market to try and learn more about what bonds are and how they fit into the big picture. TSM spending spooked investors despite the fan in Arizona being built long before AI was even a thing. And TSM also mentioned they might be rising prices. Semi manufacturing is a very moated industry, even if you can inford the truly insane cost to start a fan you also have to blow money constantly playing catchup. ASYS is down, unable to determine why other than it follows TSM quite strongly in movement. AI spending spooks investors I would say yes. Iv been reading Burrys free posts and trying to avoid anything with to much exposure to the bubble. My exception to this is the hardware manufacturing firms with big moats and that have been around for a while. I also keep semi stocks as <50% of my total portfolio. Rest is in ETF's or in banking and metal manufacturing stocks.

Apprehensive-Mine364

TSM trading premarket below yesterday closed. Fuck this semi bullshit

Apprehensive-Mine364

TSM was too reasonable on their call. Instead of saying that they will scale up in Arizona as determined by market demand, they should have said they were going to try to buy Arizona and turn the whole state into a fab.

Prime_Outlook

Anybody in for TSM?

Apprehensive-Mine364

Got it...so my position is good. I need TSM to recover past 420

Apprehensive-Mine364

Rumor is earthquake his TSM....can someone confirm seeking alpha is telling the truth?

Comrade_Durge

I full ported one of two trading accounts into SKHY (-30%), Samsung (-30%), MU (-20%) and TSM (-12%) in June and have about 20% in DRAM stocks in another one (-20%). How cooked am I?

Double_Suggestion385

For sure, but not just any names. For example - AMD is expensive, Nvidia and TSM are great value.

EveryonesNasshole

im confident spy is going to break towards 720s this or next week. no catalysts from the last 2 weeks have saved the market (TSM, Google, lower inflation)... at this point, the tops in. august and september coming up, worst months for the market. No reason for the market to recover, other than a shorts covering rally, or liquidity grab before a huge drop. playing puts from here til november.

Double_Suggestion385

A lot are pretty significantly undervalued like Nvidia and TSM. They'll go up a lot more than 10%.

neilr3ddit

Lucky that I’m holding TSM+NVDA and GOOG roughly 50 / 50, they always go opposite so kind of balance out the loss…

looool_k_libtard

Google and TSM confirm demand is still incredible, increasing capex through 2027. NVIDIA says they’re expanding and investing in every layer of AI buildout. So it makes sense that the entire month of July is a 40-50% selloff in all the companies benefiting from this.

raylillywhite

Yes, but those companies are not the ones selling the chips or running the datacenters that operate them. If one of Anthropic or OpenAI fail, the capacity from the hyperscalers just gets shifted elsewhere. They could both fail and open weight AI will get used on the GPUs instead. All you need to see is that they're running at capacity already, demand is growing. And AI is progressing which makes each GPU hour more valuable. The only thing irrational is a market that's pricing essential companies in this transformation like NVDA/TSM, that are supply constrained for the rest of the decade, and growing 70-80% yoy, with significantly lower forward pe than asleep at the wheel dinosaurs like Apple.

ReserveDrunkDriver

Are you not worried about the looming arbitrage trade between 000660 and SKHY when shares can be converted starting on the 29th? This should create some level of mechanical selling in SKHY, even if the valuations never go equal (see TSMC with TSM and 2330).

abssynth

Interestingly no TSM, SKHY, ASML, NVO. They can’t do ADRs?

GetLostInNature

How does anyone hold anything is this market? After the TSM capex dump I completed exited after holding for a freaking year. These stocks make zero sense. Just pump and dump. I too had extremely high hopes for usar but, they’re being sued by MP and so many good stocks inherit lawsuits now from competitors and investors mad about Dumps now. Nothing is safe or steady in this market now

No_Presentation9490

* You don’t think they’re investing $250b in capex without confidence the demand will be on the other side? Every one of the past 6 semiconductor/memory cycles were also this time is different durable demand stories where optimism was extreme overproduction was massive and long term contracts were canceled * The fact that all of them including TSM are making these investments is strong indication that they don’t believe this is a temporary cycle but rather a secular change. Every one of the past 6 semiconductor/memory cycles were also this time is different durable demand stories where optimism was extreme overproduction was massive and long term contracts were canceled * SK just got a $500B contract from Nvidia. Samsung is getting huge deals. Micron is signing 5 year agreements. Every one of the past 6 semiconductor/memory cycles were also this time is different durable demand stories where optimism was extreme overproduction was massive and long term contracts were canceled * You are right the market is skeptical which is why these guys have such low PEs but I disagree the massive capex is a bearish signal. You should take your disagreement to Wall Street, they're the only ones that can move the price of the stock. I'm sure they have not thought about exactly what you are thinking about, times 10, plus insider information, and are eager to hear your perspective

GainDelicious1894

Buy TSM or SK Hynix better. More undervalued. 

mayorolivia

You don’t think they’re investing $250b in capex without confidence the demand will be on the other side? AI hardware companies are notoriously conservative with capex investments due to huge bust cycles and concerns that increasing supply will compress margins. The fact that all of them including TSM are making these investments is strong indication that they don’t believe this is a temporary cycle but rather a secular change. SK just got a $500B contract from Nvidia. Samsung is getting huge deals. Micron is signing 5 year agreements. You are right the market is skeptical which is why these guys have such low PEs but I disagree the massive capex is a bearish signal.

AgitatorSupreme

I recommend Taiwan Semi conductor TSM. They are the only Semi company that hasn’t seen the ridiculous gains or losses and they are years ahead of competition in chip fabrication technology and they make chips for almost everyone (nvidia, apple, amd, arm, etc.. except for intel). I predict they will be the next Micron or Sandisk. The biggest risk is China invading Taiwan but that scenario has been seen by many as a very likely catalyst to WWIII and in that case the market will crash anyway. Rn i only hold 4 shares but am buying with each dip around $400.

Cabbage854

Okay since this is a weekend discussion thread and everyone is chatting shit: What's people's thoughts for Monday futes / open? I'd suspect no news or good news on iran tomorrow. But who knows? The US cannot and will not tolerate oil prices this high. I'm not betting against the US. Some good sells on semis yesterday. But the fall is right where the 20 weekly is, especially on TSM, arguably next to NVDA in the sector. Intel had good earnings. I think we get a pump next week, what's everyone's thoughts?

Etherius

So according to you, AVGO doesn’t make their own silicon And they don’t pay TSM to make their silicon Kay

ACiD_80

TSM good earnings: falls of a cliff INTC good earnings: falls of a cliff Time to step away.

Beginning-Fig-9089

idk, i know theres benefits, but maybe its not where i am positioned. semis have already ran up, could be AI ROI is now in the enterprises they are currently being implemented across? for instance Healthcare and Financials have been looking better risk to reward, considering they can start unlocking the benefits of AI for business. earnings from GS, JPM, and BLK all pumped while semis dumped, INTC, AVGO, TSM

Weak-Pomegranate-435

AVGO does not pay TSM as well. Google pays both AVGO and TSMC. And TSMC further pays a fraction of those increased profits to ASML for expansion. But AVGO does not funnel that to anyone else unlike TSMC. Learn the supply chain correctly

Apprehensive-Mine364

INTL stock today is going to be studied for decades to come..... Same with TSM.

looool_k_libtard

The one risk for growth names in AI adjacent companies was capex might slow. Google and TSM said “lmao absolutely not, we’re spending more through 2027” and yet all of those stocks are getting obliterated.

looool_k_libtard

AI names getting nuked because…. Google and TSM said AI capex is only going to go up through 2027. And then Jensen defended compute demand… so neoclouds all fall. Alright.

prana_fish

The semi trade HAS to have washed out a lot of people by now, tired of the 2 full months of chops, rug pulls, and counter narratives. Don't think more blowout earnings will save positions. Stuff like $TSM and even $GOOG lately shows market still doesn't give a shit.

Apprehensive-Mine364

Down 3.5% so far in TSM.

Apprehensive-Mine364

I'm down on my semi stocks which I'm bitter about as its ~50% of my small portfolio I play with. Fuck you TSM & ASYS. most of my other holding are bounching between 2% positive or negative max....think finance and super short term risky shit. My manufacturing stocks, all except AA are green and a positive return. I had cash sitting in a fidelity position...then realized it would be better sitting in a diversified international market. FZILX was my global (read international and less exposure to the AI bubble and diversified from US markets.) It also is a 0 expense no transaction fee index fund. Downside of FZILX is that Samsung and SK Hynix are being held. That said....I think if a position shits the bed they drop it....I'm no Michael burry when it comes to research thought. DD: moved cash into international index fund with 0 expense or transaction fees. Hoping to get better rates than a cash position and a decent market return.

looool_k_libtard

The one question causing AI infrastructure names to crash this month was capex from mag 7 slowing, Google and TSM it’s only going up through 2027, so they sell off even more? What the fuck even is this market anymore.

Apprehensive-Mine364

Yeah I guess I'm stuck bag holding my TSM & ASYS positions till they finally print green instead of red. Go figure my two biggest positions are fucking my portfolio red hard. That said my AA stock position (got in at 49.5) is so red that I just want to see it go green even if its not large a position of my total portfolio. I have a rule: buy low sell high and this market seems to like making that fucking impossible if I never return to break even or go net positive. Attaching obligatory photo. https://preview.redd.it/dgfx37qmz6fh1.jpeg?width=320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=71e070da65f734bf4b6fa0c873f21016d99cd986

george_alto

Good points. Right now the shovel providers are benefiting. But if the diggers drastically slow down or stop spending, then the reverse will happen. Hence, not every stock involved in all facets of the AI trade will be going up together now because of the multi-faceted risks. Where are the risks. Right now the diggers spending too much and not getting an ROI on those investments. The risks for the shovel providers are the diggers slowing down or stopping. But the other risk I keep in back of my mind is china invading taiwan which would affect TSM. That would kill the AI trade! It's lower risk then it was one or two years ago but it's still there. TSM and other manufacturers building plants outside of taiwan is a great contingency but we have years before those plants are ready.

Independent-Use-228

AMZN is my hedge. I'm rolling the dice on AVGO VS TSM. Someone say it for me. The bank is ready.