TSM

DJSANJ

Around 17%, SMH, TSM, QIMC, COPX, ATH, HG. Still buying at discount.

OddDescription4523

I think the writing's on the wall that we're in for some real pain in the coming months. I'll make the obligatory comment about not having a working crystal ball, but there's a difference between "I can tell that today's drop is the bottom of the whole thing!" and "there are strong indicators of bad times in the next 6 months or so". So, since Jan 1, I've liquidated basically all of my long-term holdings while leaving most of my short-term holdings in place (except a few I wanted to loss-harvest on). Just with the drop that's already happened, I've probably saved myself $25k in (paper) loss. I plan to buy back in sometime during the pain - definitely not all at once (that *would* be trying to time the market), but when things have gone down a good bit (accepting that I don't know if they'll go down even more or by how much), I'll start regularly buying a few thousand dollars of things at a time. Some of it will be the companies I had before, because I think they're long-term good (TSM at 120? Yes, please), and others will be different because this'll be a good time to refocus my portfolio on some different sectors, e.g. coming back in I want more industrials and financials and less consumer cyclicals. So yeah, I was about 95% invested, and since Jan 1 I've pulled that back to about 65% invested, with all that money pulled out sitting in a HYSA as dry powder. I do this fully accepting that I *may* end up hating myself in 12 months if we have a bull rally instead of a crash or recession, but \*shrug\*. Buy, sell, hold - every option is a risk, just the nature of the beast.

looool_k_libtard

Lmao monthly chart since October is so fucking stupid. Just relentlessly red to like 90% of my stocks. Now even TSM is rolling over. Fuck all of this.

_icarcus

Ticker is TSM, company name is TSMC

xdemzx

What is TSMC? Isn’t it TSM?

kktvMIN

Those picks may be particularly volatile. In comparison TSM, INTC, and NVDA did not fall as much.

soup4br3kfast

MU is a mess. Coming for TSM next

Singularity-42

Right now, I'm not buying yet, I'm trimming slightly but mainly holding. I'm about 40% or so in safer equities. I had Claude Code churn for half an hour doing research, maybe someone else finds this helpful. This is the chapter analysing current situation and most likely scenarios (bear/bull/base): ## PART 3: THE THREE SCENARIOS ### BEAR CASE (20% probability) **What happens**: April 6 deadline passes without a deal. Trump follows through on threats and strikes Iran's energy infrastructure. Iran retaliates by escalating Strait closure, activating Hezbollah and Houthis more aggressively, and potentially striking US military bases or allied oil facilities in the Gulf. The conflict drags into 2027. Oil hits $150-200/barrel. **Market impact**: - S&P 500 enters bear market territory (-20%+ from highs), bottoming around 4,600-4,800 - Full recession in H2 2026 (unemployment rises above 5%) - Fed forced to choose between cutting rates (to save economy) and hiking (to fight inflation) — likely freezes, worst of both worlds - Tech/AI stocks drop another 15-25% from current levels as consumer spending collapses and energy costs eat into data center profitability - Gold potentially retests and exceeds $5,279 high, silver could hit $90+ - Energy stocks and defense stocks surge further - Tanker rates stay at record levels indefinitely **What this means for your AI positions**: NVDA, GOOG, AMD, TSM all take another major leg down. BUT — and this is crucial — the underlying businesses don't break. AI demand is enterprise/government, not consumer. The capex commitments from Meta ($27B Nebius deal), Microsoft, etc. don't get cancelled because oil is $150. The stocks just get cheaper while the businesses keep growing. This is the "painful but ultimately an opportunity" scenario for a long-term AI bull. **What triggers this**: Trump following through on April 6 threats. Iran launching a major retaliatory strike. Houthi blockade of Bab al-Mandeb. Chinese intervention on Iran's side. --- ### BULL CASE (25% probability) **What happens**: Pakistan-mediated talks produce a framework by mid-April. Iran agrees to reopen Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a ceasefire, partial sanctions relief, and face-saving concessions. Both sides claim victory. Hormuz partially reopens within weeks, fully by June. Oil drops back to $75-85 by summer. **Market impact**: - S&P 500 rips 10-15% higher in weeks (massive short-covering rally) - Nasdaq and tech lead the recovery — they always bounce hardest from oversold conditions - AI stocks could recover most or all of their war losses within 2-3 months - Gold/silver sell off 15-20% (safe haven trade unwinds) - Tanker stocks (STNG) crash 30-40% as rates normalize - Defense stocks give back some gains but retain elevated spending levels (European rearmament is structural) - The "AI bubble is over" narrative dies — everyone remembers the AI buildout is real **What this means for your AI positions**: NVDA back toward $200+, GOOG toward $300+, AMD toward $230+. The beaten-down stocks bounce hardest. This is the scenario where you kick yourself for selling too much at the bottom. NBIS, PLTR, and other high-beta names could rally 30-50%. **What triggers this**: Iran's government, under severe economic and military pressure, accepts a face-saving deal. Trump needs a "win" before the political cost of oil prices gets too high. Both sides have incentive to find an off-ramp. Pakistan/Turkey/Egypt provide diplomatic cover. --- ### MOST LIKELY CASE (55% probability) **What happens**: A prolonged, messy, inconsistent de-escalation over 2-4 months. Here's how it plays out: 1. **April 6 deadline gets extended AGAIN** (most likely). Trump has already extended twice. He doesn't actually want to bomb power plants — the humanitarian optics are terrible and it would guarantee Iranian escalation. He's using the threat as leverage. 2. **Strait of Hormuz partially reopens** through a combination of Iran's "tollbooth" system expanding (more countries get access) and quiet diplomatic agreements. Oil doesn't drop to pre-war levels but gradually declines from $115 to $85-95 by June/July as supply partially normalizes. 3. **No formal peace deal, but an informal ceasefire** emerges by late May/June. Air strikes taper off. Iran saves face by claiming it defended itself. Trump claims he destroyed Iran's nuclear program (partially true). Neither side achieves maximum goals. 4. **The economy avoids recession** but growth slows. GDP growth drops from ~2.5% to ~1.5-2.0%. Unemployment drifts up slightly. Inflation bumps to 3.5-4% temporarily but doesn't become embedded because the Fed holds firm and energy prices gradually decline. 5. **Markets grind back slowly**. Not the V-shaped recovery of the bull case, but a steady climb back. S&P 500 reaches new highs by Q4 2026 or Q1 2027. **What this means for your AI positions**: - **Near-term (April-May)**: Continued volatility. Stocks trade on headlines, not fundamentals. Every Trump tweet moves markets 1-2%. AI stocks stay choppy but stop making new lows. - **Medium-term (June-August)**: As oil gradually drops and Hormuz partially reopens, the "stagflation" narrative fades. Tech/AI starts to outperform again as the market remembers these companies are growing 30-200% per year. - **Longer-term (Q4 2026)**: AI capex cycle is intact. Meta, Microsoft, Google, Amazon are not cancelling their AI buildout plans over a temporary oil shock. NVDA, ASML, MU, AMD all re-rate higher as the war fog clears. Your positions recover. **Key supporting evidence for this scenario**: - CNN analysis (March 27): "The dynamics suggest the war is likely to end with a whimper not a bang" - Bloomberg (March 25): "Markets bracing for Iran war shock are ignoring resilient US economy" - Analyst consensus: 25% chance ends by May, 45% settles fall 2026, 35% extends into 2027 - Historical pattern: Average correction recovers in ~4 months once it bottoms. Average war-related selloff recovers within 6-12 months. - Trump is transactional — he wants a deal, not a prolonged war. The economic cost to his base (gas prices) is a political liability.

BiblicalAss

TSM sub 300 is a generational buying opp .. -> soon?

soup4br3kfast

TSM is next. Energy disruptiin is hitting em hard

Comfortable-Sky7801

MU SNDK TSM INTC AMD getting rekt

sharkenleo

Sure but the thing that's strange is NVDA and AMD pretty much flat, AVGO and TSM down about 2%. I guess MU is fucking it badly.

Typical-Layer-1253

The AI stocks are holding up quite well. NVDA doing fine. AMD been fine. AVGO TSM… even NBIS . Let me guess you bought garbage companies without researching?

Nervous-Present-6890

Not a real issue. TSM recycles 99% of helium so they are crazy efficient. And plenty of places produce helium, like the US. They will outbid everyone else to get it.

honest-solution3

TSM is the best play for AI

AdditionalActuator81

Well AI is going to be screwed if the helium and LNg that comes from the gulf does t get to TSM to make chips. Oo and not only AI everything else that uses chips.

OxCart69

I mean it only takes like 10 minutes to leverage my entire savings into TSM puts because #CHYNA CRAZY

AdditionalActuator81

Anyone know how long TSM can keep making chips without getting helium and LNG from the gulf?

WrexyWrex

anyone else see the head and shoulders on TSM? lmao

Pin-Last

SOFI has shady rep and the stock isn’t really cheap, they mostly are very promising companies that haven’t proven themselves yet. No AAPL, AMZN, MSFT? Or if GOOGL, AVGO, TSM get really cheap? XHB and AAL/UAL for a trade?   Just maybe some companies that aren’t going anywhere. 

Pin-Last

This is a much more dire situation than tariff last year, but things are getting too cheap. MSFT/enterprise software is the best risk/reward imo, but NVDA & META are cheap. AMZN very close. Google is the future but just head & sholdered. AAL/UAL close too. Wish AVGO & TSM would drop more. 

dacoozieben

if it get cheaper, buy a bit more. no one can say for certain, but I bought TSM, MSFT, META and GOOG

boofybutthole

I'm still +6.3% ytd in my Roth it's because TSM was still ripping until almost March and I went 50% cash pretty quickly after the war-not-war started. I also had a decent position in Netflix before it shot up after that deal went south, so I made a quick 20% there and then sold most of it

GamblingMikkee

Now my biggest holding - overtook TSM last week

Whole_Use8878

Decided to sell half my msft holdings and all amzn holdings and swap into MU, NVDA and TSM today. I've been bullish on msft, goog and amzn, but realised that NVDA and tsm are safer and will grow in synch with these tech giants but at a faster pace, because the reliance of growth of these tech companies has become reliant on their ai capabilities that NVDA and TSM automatically win if the tech giants win, but don't necessarily lose if one or more of the tech giants lose (the Capex is real).

Icy_Acanthisitta7741

Literally anything (most of the high players) you bought 2 years ago got this much raise. Intel, nvda, msft, ALOY, TSM. PLTR... etc...etc...

No_Current3675

Maybe I fucked up in not buying TSM today.

Visible_Ad_2271

Damn the main capital of big tech with the HQs of Apple, Google, Meta, Amazon, TSM, Nvidia where all the CEOs live and all the chips are manufactured, the great country of the United States of Iran is getting attacked…no wonder markets are crashing, RIP big tech….it all makes sense….our beautiful stock market can‘t prosper while Iran is getting attacked, Iran is such an influencal part of our world….oh man Mr. President please help

Whole_Use8878

Decided to sell half my msft holdings and all amzn holdings and swap into MU and RDDT after the drops today. Obviously higher risk, particularly with rddt but with a far greater probability of a huge rebound compared to msft or amzn. The logic being that at the current value rddt and MU realistically can only drop another 40% max before hitting a hard value floor unless some kind of fundamental catalyst changes things. However this is unlikely and the probability of a bounce back is significantly higher. When MU and RDDT bounce back they bounce back much harder than the huge mega caps. I think now is a great opportunity to take advantage of the volatility of these stocks with some of the risk mitigated. Also, swapped a lot into NVDA and TSM I've been bullish on msft, goog and amzn, but realised that NVDA and tsm (also holding) are safer and will grow in synch with them but at a faster pace, because the reliance of growth of these tech companies is so reliant on their ai capabilities that NVDA and tsm automatically win if the tech giants win, but don't necessarily lose if the tech giants lose (the Capex is real).

boofybutthole

mostly been picking up bits of TSM on the way down

boofybutthole

I've been picking up tiny fractions of TSM as it drops, that's been my only real plan so far. this market is a bit too whacky

BiblicalAss

TSM sub 330 ! its the end!

TowelOld743

If china invades Taiwan TSM will go to 0, it's because they, like most East and South Asian nations are extremely dependent on middle eastern oil, Philippines have enough for about 45 days, then they'll be out of oil.

Maximum-Cash7103

WHAT THE FUCK IS TSM doing.

Visible_Ad_2271

Especially MSFT, GOOGL and META are free money rn. if TSM goes down further them also.

No-Insurance100

My TSM puts are printing today. Taiwan is gonna be out of fuel and helium within a week. The question is whether they stop chip production or force the population to have daily blackouts to keep the lights on at TSM plants

Maximum-Cash7103

TSM and Google made me feel invincible last year. Now? Straight regarded

JiffKewneye-n

TSM drilling hard

hermeskino715

My TSM puts been waiting for Gyna to do something for the past 2 yrs If they haven't done anything after Venezuela, then they ain't doing shit

teh_herper

So poots on TSM and NVDA

Focux

Let me guess, you also skipped TSM because of the “China risk” that western media keeps pumping out right?

WiseAct446

Being as this is r/investing, we're all free to read the article and decide how to invest. Some will be right and some will be wrong. It will be fascinating to see which of these opinions pan out. As for me, I'm long on the chip supply chains that fuel the AI boom. Feel free to check back in 6 months and 1 year to see if this is a momentary disruption or something that actually prevents the manufacture of AI chips and negatively affects the stock price of TSM, NVDA, AVGO, and ARM.

JahBoiFloyd

I bought TSM and NRG off some reddit advice and those are up 210% and 150% from when I bought.

Subymoa

puts on TSM ?

El_mae_tico

$TSM Will fall soon under Chinese gov... I thought they were taking Taiwan this month... It's good for everyone that at least he tries... Everyone hates Musk, but in this case, we need this to work ( all but China)

mrtomd

This is good for multiple companies: $NVDA, $QCOM, $TXN, $MU, $NXPI, $AVGO, $ADI, etc. The question is: how much $TSM will try to f... it and block suppliers like $ASML providing the machines.

Tradingland

ATOM FAB news due any day. NVDA INTC AMD TSM BRCM MU SNDK AMAT

Beetlejuice_hero

Also American company vs Euro. With maybe ASML & TSM excepted, non-American stocks just suck. Goes far beyond just pharma.

Trashpanda7193

Any explanations as to why TSM up today

A55BAG

Semis that do circular financing AMD, NVDA, AVGO are in a 6M long downtrend. Semis that only take cash like TSM and ASML have been only going up.

No_Bookkeeper6275

TSM will definitely go down due to poor forecasts of Q2. Check out 15th May expiry puts if you have the patience.

No_Bookkeeper6275

Taiwan will not run out of minerals but TSM will definitely deprioritize its low margin products to cater to the AI demand as long as possible. The issue will not be helium but chemicals like photoresists that suppliers like Sumitomo Chem and Shin-Estu Chem produce specifically for them - These companies have already declared Force Majeure for majority of their committments due to lack of Naphtha from Middle East

JiffKewneye-n

im apparently going to die by the hypothesis (unproven) that Taiwan is going to run out of minerals and therefore TSM will crater.

Tradingland

ATOM Wink wink. Game changing semiconductor technology for trillion dollar industry. INTC TSM NVDA AMD BRCM

Trashpanda7193

TSM the only green thing I have in my port

JiffKewneye-n

TSM really wants to sink source: i have puts

CriticalAnybody6686

Good thing I have them.. and NVDA, TSM, and AMD. I like getting fucked in every hole possible

Tradingland

ATOM Final FAB result due any day for game changing semiconductor manufacturing. NVDA INTC ATML TSM MU SNDK BRCM TXN SOXL. Previous all time high 47.

NotMe357

"Investing.com-- NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) may redesign its next-generation Feynman artificial intelligence chip platform due to limited production capacity at contract chipmaker TSMC (NYSE:TSM), a report from Taiwan’s Economic Daily News showed on Monday."

wilhelm96

TSM getting sodomized

Raslatt

TSM is a great one. I own the stock. However, if you’re looking to diversify SMH holds TSM, it’s a bit more diversified and you can sock money and leave it there. 20% of my portfolio is in SMH for your reference.

JiffKewneye-n

i took profit on my TSM 300 P exp 4/10. made about 80 percent, but i can't shake the feeling that this was a blunder. i have a spy put going for tomorrow, but i should have reloaded TSM puts on the late rally.

rick2882

I've bought more MU and TSM over the past week. Admittedly, I'm also holding a 3x Short ETF (SQQQ) and bought UCO (oil). I'm playing both sides so that I will always come out on top.

HEK293INVAX

RedditAdvice : The street is just thinking OIL price yet the LNG price affects industries across the rest of the world too, and N.A. LNG is much cheaper than everywhere else, EU and ASIA is more than double the U.S. price, the "energy spread" acts as a structural subsidy giving U.S. based industry a clear cost advantage to others. Historically it has been as much as 5x higher. **Chemicals & Fertilizers, Heavy Manufacturing -i**nexpensive gas-fired electricity for domestic investment in steel, glass, and plastic-resin production for exports and culling the overseas competition both domestically and abroad. TheEnergyWar will continue till morale improves. I speculate Russia, Turkey, Iran and Houthis with Chinese tech support for this new Axis of Opportunity. This is volatility off the charts brewing. $EONR $TSLVF is all I own. Am sidelined from everything else now yet see major upside in XLF next week along with Energy sectors, XLU is not favoured as much as many companies are tied to AI and that could be indirectly and directly affected from Israel (INTC) and Taiwan (TSM). It's a stock pickers market now, no indices for me, thankyou. AI&I

WiseAct446

There are all sorts of things that COULD happen. From a helium supply standpoint, it could mean other suppliers (as well as the US) bring on additional capacity. It doesn't mean AI chip production will decrease. AI chips will be the LAST chips TSM stops manufacturing. The US alone produces sufficient helium to ensure a sufficient supply for those chips.

fartymctoots

Yeah exactly this. I’m well ahead, but I bought NVDA forever ago, TSLA as well, and got in TSM at 7 bucks lol. Holding those and trimming over time has been very profitable, but the rest of my portfolio is just okay. Idk if I’ll ever be able to do that again. I’m also not chasing it. I’m just trying to do smart consistent things at this point.

SpaceCatVII

TSM better buy tbh

5256chuck

I ain't looking. I'm still DCAing all my solid stocks (all the way down) but I'm definitely NOT interested in anything new to consider. My solids? AAPL, BRK.B, COST, GOOGL, IAU, NVDA, RKLB, TSLA & TSM. These, too, shall rise again!

Immediate-Movie6837

TSM will die so China can live.

First-Button-2297

Im down 1% combo of SCHD, SPY, NVDA, TSM, EEMA, VEA as holdings. Other portfolio is flat to slightly up...holding Cash and writing weekl y CSP's on low delta options.

ai-moderator

#TLDR --- **Ticker:** TSM **Direction:** Down (Straight to zero) **Prognosis:** Buy $120 Puts expiring 4/17 **Catalyst:** WW3, calm seas, and self-destructing semiconductor fabs **Military Credential:** Armchair Admiral / Tom Clancy novel aficionado

farnesebull

TSM is going to zero before the end of April. The weather window opens in a few days, China only has two weather windows a year, April or October, to have calm enough seas to attempt to take Taiwan. US interceptor missiles are quietly being moved to Middle East to replenish allies and ourselves against Iran. We will not have enough to defend our assets in Asia which makes it tough calculus for us if they move on Taiwan. This is China's best chance in decades to take Taiwan. TSM literally has their factory rigged to blow if China tries to take Taiwan. Puts are lottos here.

OxCart69

TSM puts this weekend guys

Scribble_Box

Been doing this with leaps for a while now. AMD, Google, apple, nvda, Adobe, OXY, TSM, SNAP, UNH etc. Biggest holdings rn are Google and Amazon. Down a bit on those currently and quite a few others, but I'm still up 51% on the year lol.

givemeanappple

Photonics is the future. Once photonic transistors are mass adopted, there could be a huge shift away from electronics. So in my insane opinion, LITE could go to $10,000 a share. Even at that price, lite would still only have a market cap half that of TSM. In the future, if lite reached TSM value (1.76 T), it would put it's share price at around $25,000 a share. Speculating is fun.

Scribble_Box

I sold some OXY leaps that I was in since the Maduro shenanigans. Sold the news when the Iran war kicked off. Should have held lol. Sold Adobe for a nice gain, as well as apple, TSM and a couple others. I'm holding a bunch more. Lots of Google, Amazon, nvda, meta, and Healthcare. NVO and UNH. Those last two are hurting lol.

JiffKewneye-n

i chose not to sell my TSM put when it was +500 percent at bell open today. ugh

UnObtainium17

I bought that dip, but sold all of it too soon. I thought there was no point in holding ASML, AVGO and TSM.

greg_r_

Yeah lol. Ignore the copers. LLMs are here to stay for the foreseeable future. MU, NVDA, ASML, LRCX, and TSM are all great options(heh) over a \~3-4-year timeline.

rjb_jr

As Sean Strickland, philosopher, would say…here’s the thing you guys. I can’t imagine China not taking the opportunity in a few more weeks to blockade Taiwan. TSM will go to 0 and Intel/AMD etc will go to a bazillion. Yes? No?

wrongrobertpatrick

Kinda funny that TSM kicked Tesla out of the mag 7 and he’s like I’m building my own chip fab 🤷🏻‍♂️

intjester-5

Don’t know, don’t really care. There must always be a bear case in investing or there’s no opportunity to be bullish. If everyone can already see the value, then no one’s selling and the price has already risen. You have to buy what nobody wants when nobody wants it. Find an investment with a bear case you can live with. I can’t live with China threatening Taiwan - that’s your opportunity to buy TSM cheaper. Piper doesn’t like DRTS last week? That’s extending my opportunity to get in lower on DRTS. Long term the truth will come out. DRTS could absolutely need to raise again. But they have so much leverage now that I don’t believe it will be through an unfavorable straight dilution. Treating them like every other binary outcome biotech is a lazy failure to think. Japan will start to bring in some as-yet-unknown amount of revenue. Maybe the cash runway is longer than it looks on the balance sheet? Maybe the bears are correct that it’s shorter. But DRTS have publicly stated that big pharma is now at attention. They can choose and negotiate a partnership (or any number of financial options) among many suitors from a position of tremendous strength. If they were desperate to do a deal it could have been done already.

JiffKewneye-n

i have TSM puts. when do i get to retire?

Scrogwiggle

I know this is retarded, but I wanna buy long dated TSM puts for the inevitable china attack. Doing it soonish seems like a good idea with the us depleting its missile supply and being preoccupied with Iran. My buying these puts will insure that nothing will happen till they expire :(

Pin-Last

YES… or 50/50 w/ TSM

iFiredIce

Yet TSM is still up lol Pretty people just didn't like Jensen's lying yesterday

yakuzademon893

TSM calls

AdAny631

Everything goes to zero. We get all our leading edge chips from TSM fabs in Taiwan. The ones in Arizona are a node behind. In Taiwan they call it the “Silicon Strategy”. Make yourself so valuable to the rest of the world that they will defend you against a Chinese attack.

GuiltyShirt3771

Calls on TSM. America and China buying chips like no tomorrow.

Initial_Alfalfa243

Buy TSM, what do u think?

Rare-ish_Birb

I guess this means 500 billion in revenue for TSM too.

Devastaytah

Who got insider info of when Chyna invades Taiwan so I can load up on TSM puts

Initial_Alfalfa243

TSM yes or no?

Devastaytah

How regarded are TSM weekly puts rn

Jacobpapi

TSM next

cuccifer

Short TSM

louis-debroglie

China threatening Taiwan is going to send TSM to $0 and all AI stocks with it.

ub3rm3nsch

In my personal opinion? TSM.

HairlessChest

TSM Calls

AccountOfMyAncestors

Assume you have the thesis that china will make their move on taiwan this year or next year. What's the highest, risk adjusted way to profit on this? Long dated puts on TSM, way OTM? Or on NVDA?