TSM

starbetrayer

TSM to the moon

xjollyxgiraffex

Is it too late for me to hop on TSM?

FinishWarm1746

MU not doing the thing but TSM Is saving my ass. 

vanceraa

TSM

Celticsmoneyline

What price will TSM open at Thursday morning after earnings?

foxpandawombat

Glad I’m playing TSM earnings this week!

TheBayWeigh

Some DD on TSMC via [Magic Signal](https://magicsignal.app/). Definitely bullish Key Highlights: U.S.-Taiwan trade negotiations may reduce tariffs on Taiwanese goods to 15% (from 20%); deal contingent on TSMC building five additional Arizona fabs, likely doubling its U.S. manufacturing footprint Ramp of advanced 2nm chip production positions TSMC ahead of industry peers, boosting market share, pricing power, and AI-driven revenue streams Q4 revenue at $1046.08 billion; full-year 2025 revenue projected to rise 31.6%, underpinned by robust demand from Nvidia and AI sectors Quarterly dividend increased to $0.9678/share (~1.2% yield), signaling cash flow confidence Strong financials: Current ratio of 2.69, very low debt-to-equity (0.19), and high Altman Z-Score (13.79) indicate minimal financial distress Valuation at multi-year highs: P/E (33.8), P/S (12.19), P/B (8.83), all at or near historical peaks Institutional demand strong, with TSM a top-10 holding in key global equity funds Short-term technicals: RSI nearing overbought (65.14); current price trades 2.38% above 20-day SMA; MACD signals increasing bearish momentum Market Analysis: Strong secular demand for advanced nodes (2nm/3nm), AI chips, and high-performance computing underpin robust topline growth U.S.-Taiwan trade deal, if finalized, will expand TSMC’s strategic U.S. presence and could mitigate supply chain and geopolitical risks Elevated volatility and high options open interest in puts reflect investor caution amid record high share prices Valuation premium reflects both the scarcity value of TSMC’s technology leadership and the market’s expectation for continued secular growth Potential near-term headwinds include supply-side inflation for memory (HBM/DRAM/NAND), which could pressure margins or dampen demand in the smartphone segment Investment Outlook: Short-term (1-3 months): BULLISH | Confidence: 70% Supporting factors: Near-term bullish momentum persists with price above key moving averages and strong ongoing institutional demand; positive fundamental drivers from AI and forthcoming earnings may catalyze further upside prior to results Catalysts or risks: Possibility of short-term consolidation due to profit-taking as RSI nears overbought; options market hedging activity indicates heightened event risk Medium-term (3-12 months): BULLISH | Confidence: 80% Longer-term factors: Momentum in next-gen chips (2nm), increasing U.S. capacity, and expanding AI chip market drive structural revenue and margin growth; industry-leading balance sheet and cash flow provide long runway for dividends and strategic investments Growth drivers: AI proliferation, U.S. onshoring incentives, technology edge, and deepening client relationships; anticipated regulatory tailwinds (e.g., tariffs/trade deal) may unlock new value Risk Assessment: Execution risk in ambitious Arizona fab expansion, including potential delays, higher capital costs, or operational bottlenecks Exposure to cyclical downturns or abrupt demand swings in key end-markets (particularly smartphones and consumer electronics, ~30% revenue) Geopolitical headwinds—U.S./China/Taiwan tensions present potential supply chain and regulatory risks outside management control Current valuation multiples reflect perfection: any negative surprises in earnings or guidance could catalyze sharp corrections Rising input costs or inflationary trends in semiconductor supply chain (notably memory/HBM/DRAM/NAND) could compress margins if not offset by pricing power in AI chips

vanceraa

Timed the actual bottom on these TSM calls today holy

cbusoh66

Taiwan got a tariffs deal according to WSJ. TSM and INTC joint venture deal in 3...2...

fashgod

I bought TSM this morning. Exp 2/20 $330c and $350c. Up about 23%.

evanthe-winner

TSM I get but why delta

MajesticBread9147

I have three long term holds. **ASE Technology (ASX)** A Taiwanese company that is the market leader in outsourced semiconductor packaging and testing. Semiconductor process nodes can't shrink too much more before we get into issues, which is why many companies are not focusing as much on die-shrinks to increase performance but instead more advanced packaging. You see this with the increased use in 2.5 and 3D packaging, chiplets, SiP and the like. This trend is across the electronics industry, from auto manufacturers, the main CPU and GPU designers we all know, as well as SOCs used in cell phones, and combined CPU/GPU SOCs designed by big cloud providers used for AI training. The company is well diversified within the industry, and is the main player in their space, so isn't reliant on the current AI hype train to succeed. They have lower margins than TSMC however they have a significantly lower PE and PEG ratios and pay a 3% dividend which I reinvest. They are investing heavily into new equipment and factories to support the latest and highest margin technologies that they work with, but are still diversified across pretty much all semiconductor packaging beyond just the high end. The company doesn't get a lot of hype, and isn't captured by a lot of semiconductor ETFs, so while it absolutely is positive impact on the AI hype cycle, they are much less likely to be severely hurt by a bubble popping the hype cycle compared to NVIDIA or TSM, especially with their diversification. **Secondly, since we need to power the datacenters**: **First Solar(FSLR)** Basically zero debt, 0.57 PEG, and 28% profit margin with a huge backlog and new factories coming online this year. They make most of their panels in America and despite that and their large margins they were the first solar company to achieve sub $1/watt pricing over a decade ago. Their panels don't use silicon and instead use a different semiconductor (CdTe) that allows an efficient thin film deposited on glass ( vs sliced silicon crystals) meaning they use less material, and this semiconductor is both significantly better at maintaining efficiency in high heat environments and cheaper to produce. They focus exclusively on grid scale solar projects and contracts, so their revenues are more predictable and less sensitive to interest rates than rooftop solar. Current government policy can't change the fact that utility scale solar is by far the cheapest and fastest way to add electricity to the grid in a time when fossil fuels are set to become more expensive due to both increased exports and domestic demand, and nuclear projects, even SMRs take significantly longer and cost significantly more. **Lastly, I think Celestica(CLS) is still fairly valued as a growth play.** They are an advanced electronics manufacturer and large manufacturer of high speed network switches that are used in hyperscaler datacenters. Every server rack, and at multiple connections upstream has a switch, and networking is very important for ML workloads because large amounts of data needs to be sent between different servers quite quickly. They are the market leader in 800G switches which is the cutting edge right now. And while this is a good portion of their business, they also do healthcare technology,rack integration, general electronics design and offer services to better automate factories, which is important if we are going to bring manufacturing back. There are dozens of cloud companies, most of whom are unlikely to last til 2030, but Celestica will last, and every cloud company uses something made by them. They even make components and contracted out design and manufacturing for companies like Juniper and Dell. They beat last quarter earnings expectations by 50%, have a 30% ROE, and are expected to grow their EPS by 28% each year over the next five years. It's my largest holding by far. All of these are positioned to grow with whatever Cloud/Datacenter providers win out, whether AMD, Nvidia, or custom SOCs dominate compute, and are diversified enough to not go bankrupt if this turns out to be all hype.

KD_Hub

$130k is a good amount. I was also attracted by that AI stack, but I created my own combination: AI analyzes emotion from news and earnings to identify winners like NVDA/TSM, and I then use human verification to verify perimeters and prices. For me, Scenario 2 is ideal since VOO basis eliminates concentration danger while allowing conviction to show (I adore VRT/SHLD there). Pure Mag7 is like putting all your money on one horse; all-in VOO is dull but secure.

xbitxfatxstonkx

Not with TSM earnings on Thursday. Semi's will save the market.

xbitxfatxstonkx

SPY 700 by Friday after TSM earnings! Let's go!

Rosella2562

Haha well thanks to those TSM calls I made the money to pay my rent 😅🙌🏻 But yeah I admit it’s a risky approach

DopeBook

Barron and I just wanted some TSM calls cheap.

fallstand

TSM won’t be the only stock down if this happens

Admirable_Nothing

If you own TSM what is your plan when China invades Taiwan?

College_finals

I can already feel the comments from bears for the TSM earning. TSM destroyed earnings “BUT CERTAIN PANDA MIGHT INVADE” or “+100% percent revenue. Why not +200%” etc.

Hopeful_Invite_8275

DAL/TSM gonna moon

vanceraa

Worth picking up some weeklies on TSM for earnings chat? I know they report revenue monthly but not profit

Pereise1

Banks week + TSM

AyumiHikaru

TSM should have moved to Nasdaq long time ago

AyumiHikaru

TSM should have moved to NASDAQ long time ago

College_finals

I wanna wish the court to push the decision after the TSM earning

Ramblefire

I would buy a low cost total global market index fund as a core equity holding, a total investable corporate bond ETF as a core bond holding, and then a us and international small cap value fund with quality screening. 10% TSM

yakuzademon893

TSM

cannythecat

If you knew for sure that China would invade Taiwan in 2027, what would you do. Full port NVDA and TSM puts?

wtfkeyhole2pro

Bois? Speak for yourself. People, earnings for TSM is 1/15

Reasonable-Load3326

RemindMe! January 20th, 2028 Which outcome is more accurate? 1) Invasion - China invaded Taiwan, many dead, economy in shambles. 2)Status Quo - It's Jan 2028, election is happening in Taiwan, people are arguing online about if the preunification or "status quo" candidate will win. TSMC is still cruising along. # (Jan 10, 2026) |**Entity**|**Market Cap (USD)**|**Share Price**|**Context**| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |**TSMC ADR (NYSE: TSM)**|**$1.678 Trillion**|**$323.63**|This is the global benchmark for US investors.| |**TSMC Taipei (2330.TW)**|**$1.31 - $1.40 Trillion**|**NT$1,585**|The local valuation based on Taiwan's stock exchange.|

Objective-Equal-5469

Why MS? TSM also has earnings next week, nvda reacts so that’s a cheaper option. I never consider banks because institutions price in earnings a week or two prior so it doesn’t react hard to earnings. It seems such high risk low reward. The best response of the last 4 earnings 10/2025 was 4.7% and that was unusual, one other bullish response at 4% early last year, one one quarter flat one quarter down 1%. I’m just asking to learn, not being a jerk

No-Understanding9064

my point is TSM is a better business, really one of the best businesses. ASML is fine, but not worth the current price

Pereise1

I'm doing Wells Fargo strangles Monday close, selling them Tuesday for any possible splash back effects from JPM earnings. Or NVIDIA strangles Tuesday close, selling after TSM earnings Thursday premarket.

dangmangoes

TSM has the revenue diversity that muskrats think Tesla has

FinishWarm1746

TSM is much more than an ai company. i remember the semiconductor shortage in the auto indusrty back then, dealers where buying back cars from customers for way more than they paid for. My TSM shares printed.

_highfidelity

TSM doesn’t release Q4 earnings until premarket on 1/15.

Ok-Trash8160

AI go brrrrr 🚀 My TSM calls are finally printing, been holding these bags since last summer like a true retard

Jolly-Seat4325

I’d be happy with a half TSM and NVDA position.

groceriesN1trip

Rumblings that TSM is designing their own lithography, but not within a short period of time.

Historical_Air_8997

TSM slowed their manufacturing expansion I think in 2024, but the orders for these machines are often made many years in advance. I read TSM had one of asmls most advanced machines delivered at the end of 2024, but they placed the order in 2018. Anyway, they *can* afford more machines but expressed concerns awhile ago about future demand for high end chips. They don’t publicly announce orders, but after 2025s performance and continued AI investments globally I think they may be more motivated to purchase machines. TSM profits like $65B a year, an ASML euv machine is less than $400m and generally are in use for 10 years. So affordability isn’t a concern, demand is. Over the long term though chip demand isn’t going to decrease.

No-Understanding9064

I agree, ASML is on the wrong side of the pipeline to really exploit the boom. With intel and Samsung's future in fab being less certain that is pressure on asml while TSM has the keys to the kingdom. With no challenge to their fab dominace they can control the pace of nodes and milk older machines longer

OneADayy

TSM earning next week. If everything turns out good, NVDA might run along with it

Spear_n_Magic_Helmet

TSM with the ‘tsm strength

suizman

I’m drunk europoor and I hate TSM, MSTR and NFLX. Lost a shit load of money with these 🫠

Apart-Accountant3656

!banbet TSM 350 6d

Master_Debater_

TSM might drop a couple from the looks of it

Swords_Not_Words_

I tell people my portfolio is up like 500% and they think Im a stock market genius. The reality is I have like a dozen losers and Im being carried by ASTS I bought at IPO and then again at $2 and more at 13 snd ny average cost is under 10. Aint nobody gotta know I invested in hemp based energy drinks and sketchy biotechs and electric uxury cars and weed. And to be fair I "took profit" on stuff like CCJ, Palantir, TSM and I sure wish I held.

Master_Debater_

TSM just flatlined

ListerineInMyPeehole

TSM posting great results INTC pumps 4x more

CriticalBlackberry90

They are slowly moving up the range. First we were range bound between 6800 and 6900. In order for us to range they need to pump it and then dump next week to stay 6900 to 7000. Hence we pump today regardless of what happens and then we dump when TSM earnings come out because it is priced in.

corndog_messiah

ASML up 5% on massive TSM revenue, TSM up 0.5% 🤔

loganroger17

I know there’s lots of jokes in here, but can someone give me a reasonable take on what will actually happen if China invades Taiwan? My opinion is they make sure no damage happens to the TSMC factory(s) and after taking over, direct all outputs to China mainland. If they were to allow chips to US, I’d imagine at a super steep price, maybe 3x more than current prices. That also raises the question, why wouldn’t the Taiwanese just self sabotage by flipping the checker board off the table and give Xi the finger by blowing up the factories themselves? Everyone wants to dog on INTC, but it really is a national security matter at this stage to ensure they’re a strong and functional company. If there’s no chips, Mag 7 goes bust and the rest of the SP500 goes into a Covid like crisis until state side chip foundries can get things going like TSM has got

looool_k_libtard

TSM and NVIDIA are such shitty fucking stocks. Absolute dog shit companies. If you ever “invested” in them you’ve probably lost all your money 💯🚀💎

FinePace3325

December 2027 TSM puts are very expensive, even for very low strikes

trustedDrWatson

Gyna fully encircled Taiwan and TSM pumped 30 bucks wtf are you talking about

DanqueLeChay

Kidnap TSM, just airlift all of it. Tremendous, never been done before.

NotMe357

TSM Earning is in 8 days and INTC Earning is in 14 days. I guess Semi-stocks will pump a little before earning....🤔

JoJo_Embiid

I don't think so. GPU has multi layer of cache, moving data from disk to SRAM and to L1/L2 cache is a magnitude slower than the SM core processing L1/L2 cache directly. Afaik this is still a severe issue in optimization. Infiniband is for card2card communication but you also have communication for different layers of memories. also, there's a supply chain issue for HBM, and in order to make more HBM the storage manufacturers cut other lines that make regular disks causing regular disk price to hike as well. but yeah price change is definitely not a single factor issue for sure. i am just saying from an investing point of view knowing "storage is the issue" a year ago does not necessarily mean you can catch this crazy bull run. I actually bought MU at 90 or something thinking it's cheap and PE is low, besides all other companies in the supply chain are at least double or triple but MU is only 60% higher from the 2022 low. However, I figure out that even knowing all this and working on AI myself, I still cannot confidently predict what the price will be, because you need to know the difference in market shares for HBM, DRAM, Nanoflash, regular disk etc, and you need to know the margins, what's the percentage of memory that ai chips actually use compared to the whole industry, it's so hard to analyze. so i sold it at a little over 100 after the liberation day. about 1 or 2 weeks after i sold, the stock went to the moon , lol.... however, i have always being holding TSM, because it's much easier to analyze its moat and supply/demand, at least for me.

ohshitski

venezuela is a hedge for taiwan, TSM puts will print harder than fiat

Historical-Cost1444

TSM 3 month puts?

DrB00

It's P.E is over 4,000 that is insane that people are willing to throw money at this company. It's a CRAZY risky purchase. Intel has been doing horribly for years and suddenly now their P.E is over 4,000 and people are jumping in thinking it's a good investment? Anyways good luck. As a more risk averse person I'm not touching intel. I've already got a bit over 100 shares of TSM at like $150 a share. Even if for some reason China decides to throw away the soft power they were given from America by invading Taiwan TSMC already has a bunch of fabs setup in other countries and is continuing to expand.

Equal-Math-7524

TSM down INTC up. You know what means, China is coming for Taiwan

looool_k_libtard

About 45% between Google, TSM, and Robinhood but Robinhood is due to my average being in the $20s and not selling anything yet. Not a bad problem to have I guess.

Necromancer2k8

I agree completely. The insane prices for ram & storage will catch up with the industry capex numbers sooner then we think. You estimate last quarter a 10 billion spend on HDs and it's now getting you roughly 25% less product. You estimate 10 billion on ram, now it's roughly 50% less product. Even TSM wafer costs went up 10%. Now I understand there are contracts for set prices but those will expire at some point (you don't make 2-3 year commitments on purchases of volitile commodities like ram & HD) so renegotiatikn will be brutal for people like apple & dell who do short term or have recently expiring deals. Ride this bubble as long as possible but when it bursts, it will be a cascade of catastrophe across the world.

KrazyCoder

Yes, I believe Sk Hynix and Micron will join the 1T club. You should compare the last 2 ERs with: 1. TSM 2. AVGO 3. ASML 4. AMD And and unwind the meaning to see MU power (and SK HYNIX power) while AI is still plowing forward.

092Casey

Actually Taiwan makes majority of the chips, but TSM is building a factory out west now so if they try to take it we already have TSM on our soil. 

looool_k_libtard

Remember watching an interview with MU’s CEO few years ago and thought I should add to it with TSM. TSM obviously has done well past few years but MU would have been nice. Whoops.

easylife12345

Lost my TSM shares to covered calls being assigned last week. Stock got upgraded and is now $20 higher. I made good money, but left money on the table by capping the max gain. It happens. I’ll pick the shares up on the next pullback. I may sell calls in the meantime.

Krigrim

Anyone got a Chinese cousin in the CCP who knows if I should short TSM ?

Krigrim

Weirdly TSM hasn’t moved much

Interesting-Rub4482

How we feeling about TSM fam?

Swords_Not_Words_

Ive regretted selling early way too many times, PLTR, TSM, AMD CCJ, etc. Bern in ASTS since it was with a SPAC. Bought more at 2 anf 13. My average cost is under 10 still. I aint selling until its life changing money or it goes to 0. Six figures aint changing my life, seven might.

FinishWarm1746

TSM !

Average_TechSpec

TSM and AMAT be eating good this week ✌️

Iamnotarobot82

Donnie won't give a sh\*! if Xi sends special forces to capture Taiwan leaders. Buy TSM at your own risk.

fashgod

Properly time SLV RKLB ASTS TSM ONDS for pullbacks.

music_is_gud

Did TSM just go up 2.5% AH? 😂

danrennt98

Get those chips! I have a little semi etf going in my port: MU ASML AMAT NVDA AMD QCOM TSM MPWR AND... CAT - not a semi but I'm bullish

jnas_19

TSM, should end the year at $3000 minimum

ThatGuyCalledEric

Man why the fuck is TSM pumping with dead volume

Successful_Car1670

Been waiting 3 months for the inevitable. Timing is everything but TSM and SOXS are the pure play

wes7946

Yeah, TSM is where it's at!

Trashpanda7193

What a slow bleed for TSM all day ffs

Kashabowiekid

They don’t have to. Have to make TSM and USA perceive that they might. And the. TSM nukes the foundry

VoidMageZero

TSM is going to keep going up, it simply depends on whether China attacks Taiwan or not imo.

AluminiumCaffeine

My logic for TSM has been Im not smart enough to know if NVDA moat is gonna hold as we shift majority workload from training to inference in a foom/singularity style run up, or if say TPU/AVGO/idk some upstart eats in, but no matter who wins those chips are gonna be passing through TSM fabs at the end of the day...

Misaka9615

Is that why TSM is the best performing major semi at +1.6% for the day?

FinishWarm1746

Locking in bullish stance on TSM 163 dte. Earnings coming up next week. I’m not fucking selling this time. MU looks like a strong buy right now. 

Scribble_Box

TSM... You sexy bitch.

-B-H-

I was hoping for an entry point for TSM calls before earnings on the 15th. It’s popping sooner than I thought.

FinishWarm1746

Holy shit the one time I decide to buy TSM puts to hedge. Holy shit. 

Cockballzz

!Banbet TSM $321.5 5d

Cockballzz

Sometimes regarded plays can print a lot I will buy some TSM puts just in case China invades Taiwan

wright_on_

I just know the minute I buy $TSM China is gonna invade

Venice_LA

TSM 500 is not a meme

aioliravioli

TSM to 0

UnObtainium17

one of my regrets was trying to be cute and splitting my capital between TSM and ASML when it was so obvious that TSM had better numbers by conventional metrics. Though, my ASML did great but not 170% great like my lot of TSM.

TabletopParlourPalm

If Berkshire didn't sell their TSM stocks in 2023, they would be up almost 290% today. Imagine not believing in the monopoly high-end chip maker lol.

Comprehensive-Law293

TSM up over 3% at midnight open? New ATH? Hmm. If this holds, & if ondas can open at $11. Im definitely picking one to short & definitely getting a 10 bagger off 1.