TSM

NotMe357

"Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) on Tuesday announced that its October sales rose 59.7% compared to a year ago, so the AI revolution is still accelerating, which bodes well for Nvidia and other TSM customers. The order backlogs for many AI- and data center-related stocks continue to grow steadily, and there are virtually no signs of a slowdown, despite some of the political rhetoric and data center backlash." http://uk.investing.com/analysis/tsmcs-597-sales-growth-challenges-fears-of-an-ai-spending-slowdown-200629377

NotMe357

"These companies are buying $26 billion of Anthropic $ANT stock at its IPO price: Google $GOOGL: $10B Nvidia $NVDA: $10B AMD $AMD: $2.5B Broadcom $AVGO: $1B Micron $MU: $1B Microsoft $MSFT: $1B TSMC $TSM: $500M The private placement comes on top of the public offering and closes right after the IPO."

advantage_player

NVDA down TSM up lol

rootyoot

Be the one to start the rally TSM go ahead a be the chosen one

cruisin_urchin87

How many Chinese honeypots does TSM have? More than one, likely

SpecialTrust2045

Honestly, TSM is another shady 💩. But yeah another bull run please

Ok_Cry7572

TSM reported October revenue today of NT$587bn, up 59.7% YoY, up 14.7% from September Factoring in working days and TSMC’s Q4 revenue guidance, the solid October revenue performance was well within expectations.

BigSlick-AK

TSM monthly numbers in 14!

GloomyMembership4197

Everybody waiting for TSM monthly sale figures

NotMe357

CPI tomorrow and TSM monthly "Earning" is tonight I think.

WickedSensitiveCrew

TSM is considering entering because NVDA their #1 customer asked them. Smaller companies wouldnt have the luxury of asking TSM to get into the capital intensive memory sector. Just because TSM is considering doesnt mean they will actually do it. You dismissing MU/Samsung/SK Hynix moat over a rumor that may not even happen.

greenpride32

There are rumors that TSM is considering entering memory fab market. If/when this happens, any chip designer such as an NVDA, can just go to them for one stop shop. The ironic thing is the more MU tries to price gouge, the more their customers are likely to push for alternatives. And their biggest customers are the biggest heavyweights out there, the ones most likely able ot make change if desired. Of course TSM memory fabs couldn't happen overnight. But stocks are priced for future value. If future profits are questionable, your valuation multiple takes a hit.

EnvironmentalMall221

Just a tip for nvdia bear. The stolen tech still need $TSM LMAO WHICH IS FULLY BOOKED TILL 2028

rndmeyes

I rotated from my risky semi position TSM into blue chip NVDA last week

Ceyenne18

DELL, MU, SKHY, TSM, AMD, SNDK .... the only one still red is NVDA.

ArQ7777

Will this impact other AI stock prices like TSM and ASML?

WiseIndustry2895

TSM denies dram production. I duno who is paying the information to write these negative news

amanoraim

I understand that But why would TSM try to enter the DRAM production if it’s destined to be a falling knife ? I can agree that 700b of cash has no multiple. But the company is worth 800b today so it doesn’t need a multiple

abandoned_idol

Don't jinx my TSM position.

Misaka9615

There is at least one exception: TSM.

greenpride32

NVDA's moat is CUDA. AI was developed on CUDA platform for the past decade. If you don't use NVDA GPU, you don't get to use CUDA. CUDA is 2 decades old, has continually been enhanced, and is entrenched into many engineering and scientific applications. It isn't going away any time soon. MU SKHY and Samsung's moat is fab. That's really it. There have been rumors circulating that TSM is considering getting into the memory fab business. That would mean any chip design company, such as an NVDA, could design their own proprietary memory chips and have TSM produce them. Of course this cannot happen overnight. One of these moats is much wider and deeper than the other. That is why you see such a discrepency on NVDA versus memory chip valuation multiples. Just imagine if a day comes where TSM puts out a press release indicating they are entering the market. A pile of $700b in net profit just becomes worth $700b, there is no multiple assigned to it. You get the multiple when your expected net income trends to $200b, to $275b to $375b... etc.

abandoned_idol

This is WSB!!! I am saying this as a loser that buys boring tickers like VFIAX, ADBE, GOOG, MELI, TSM, DLO, QCOM We are not shaming them, smart investors are shameful!!!

Vlashaaak

The only ai dip I’d buy is NVDA and TSM

Josepth_Blowsepth

I bought some more leaps and ITM for TSM.

Alive_Signal1722

TSM

easylife12345

Bought some AMZN and TSM. Sold my APP on the pop. Should have held another day, but the cash was put to good work

mollusc_in_the_wind

Why not TSM?

Professional_Elk_489

I am only buying NVDA, TSM and NBIS and up on all 3 positions with a cash pile in case I get lower. I am a good gambler

jumphh

S&P fell 4% yesterday. VIX approached 30. Inflation/employment are on target. 10-yr has been dropping and indicates people are fearful. Fed is behaving as expected. Iran war has been priced in for months. There is no news other than the Dems sweeping midterms - which we don't yet know the legislative impact of - yet the market decided it was game over for the entire AI trade (including TSM and ASML which there are literally no real alternatives for). But yes bro, just keep waiting for a nuclear winter because anything else "isn't a real correction" 😂

autumnbreeznleaves

We'll see. For the record I only own $SKHY and $CAT that I added yesterday. Now my entire $VXUS port got wrecked yesterday since world ex US ETFs are now the same as semi indexes I guess. Just wait until reddit discovers the $QQQ is basically a $MAGS index. But that's also why $CAT and other electrical equipment stocks have been getting wrecked. I should have added $TSM, $JCI, Carrier Global, and Lennox as stocks I will buy next. AI is the future and Robotics will be next. We are not going back to 2019 anymore than we will go back to 2003. That genie is out of the bottle and we have entire countries that are all in that have their printing press to finance this cap ex build out.

tired_ani

I think I am in the market for CW and GEV if there’s an extended drawdown. Apart from positions in all the hyperscalars . TSM is already my largest position, SNPS is a big position for me and I own some ASML. So no point fishing for direct AI exposure

SerEx0

QCOM’s price reflects them losing the iPhone business. They’re trying to pivot to AI data centers to recoup the imminent lost business, but that’s no guarantee. NVDA, TSM, and AVGO are all at really attractive prices imho and I bought a bit of all of them yesterday near close of market.

Legitium

TSM might start making ram for NVDA 

Ok_Mind8366

TSM to make memory chips rip my port

aftherith

NVDA requesting TSM made memory clips for them

EnvironmentalMall221

Fuck you $TSM I stop loss and you fking pump!?

PinkyPromiseBuddy

While it is great to check online websites like reddit for fun it would be sad to see people base their entire decisions behind an unverified username. Now, there is something called the "news" and it does affect stock prices. However if you do actually believe that AI is a "Bubble" that suddenly the need for more data centers will suddenly cease and TSM is going to abort building another 5 manufacturing sites as stated in their financial report then you might as well tell me robots will stop being developed. I am trying to keep this primary school level, this way even the 7 year olds commenting can luckily scroll through some sounds advice. Your weekly market orders that progressively build your long term portofolio should fill at a sweet spot today and if you had the faintest idea of building your own stock screener based on SEC data you might also blissfully realize that MU is pretty cheap right now. God bless you internet.

OrangeManBibi

Don't forget TSM - 27.3% (485.8  -> 353.1)

f0king

Man boys we're so fucked ... Pls TSM save me tomorrow

DeathKnell1989

I loaded up on TSM and NVIDIA at $360 and $180. Hope I don’t regret this.

fiercefeminist

I'm glad you posted this because TSM has crashed and I'm down 15%, I was considering panic selling. Are you still going to hold? This thread has convinced me to hold and wait it out even though I'm terrified of losing more, so far down $500

DeathKnell1989

Anyone else picking up TSM at these prices?

DeathKnell1989

Of all the tech stocks that dropped today, would TSM be the safest and most attractive at its valuation?

PotadoLoveGun

TSM PE is like 25 TTM, they are growing 41% YoY. Not overvalued at all

Arrowhead_Pride15

Hell yeah, I also own a ton of BRKB. They also like GOOG a lot and have a much higher cost basis than I do, and higher than GOOG is trading today. They also sold TSM at $80. I still believe all of these companies will be winners. Anthropic? OpenAI? CRWV? I am not betting on them.

octopus_serenader

I mean yeah I have a good core, but also a bunch of momentum ETFs, plus some GOOG AMZN AAPL TSM NBIS BE RKLB etc. I never "full port" a damn thing like you filthy animals.

Spac55

Midterm-over reaction. What data center does? Bring construction jobs to state. Now \~ 8156 datacenters project in pipeline. Majority possibly get approval by next 3-4 months, before GOP transition to Left Semi demand high, supply shortage $NVDA $MU $AMD $TSM $AMAT $KLAC $QQQ all tech go high https://preview.redd.it/9b4r6812evzh1.png?width=1063&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b139c46cf7dee59c27b0cd3dc1cac3684e9654e

Spac55

Midterm-over reaction. What data center does? Bring construction jobs to state. Now \~ 8156 datacenters project in pipeline. Majority possibly get approval by next 3-4 months, before GOP transition to Left Semi demand high, supply shortage $NVDA $MU $AMD $TSM $AMAT $KLAC $QQQ all tech go high

mollusc_in_the_wind

lol I bought a position in TSM today. Started at $390 and averaged down. Different strokes for different blokes.

octopus4488

At least I am not left holding the nonsense stuff. My NVDA and TSM got hurt, sure, but I am not worried about them closing shop by December like some microcaps will.

deprecated__

Buy good companies like TSM or AXON and you won't have this problem.

dIO__OIb

semi conductor fire sale - even if AI tanks, the need for chips is still at all time high. it’s like no one remembers the shortage during covid. last, it’s take years to get a fab up and running. ASML and TSM all in and what the hell does QTUM big drop have to do with AI?!?

Mr_Mojobaggins

Bought MU, TSM, SPMO and DRAM.

bulgar88

TSM was my baby. Glad I pulled out entirely around $440. And proceeded to loose all profit to options. Ask me what I learned...

nugoffeekz

That's exactly the point, the valuations of today are pricing in utility in the present. This tech needs years to full realize value and then years to recover CAPEX and then a few more years to become profitable and reduce debt. This is the same as the dot com bubble. Venture capitalists threw money at any company in the sphere without any actual value being demonstrated. Turns out the internet did everything they said it would and it completely changed how people shop, interact, work etc. However a bunch of companies that were pumped up in the hype and the telecommunications giants that were rock solid for decades and were building all the fibre optic cabling collapsed. The issue is that you are exit liquidity after venture capitalists threw tons of money at the new tech and built hype around it. These valuations outside of NVDA and TSM are completely detached from reality. They will return to sensible valuations and flatline for years until certain companies, maybe OpenAi or Anthropic, perfect the business case and utility of their services and become the next Amazon, Google etc.

NotMe357

You can bet on a relief rally tomorrow. Bet on guys like NVDA, TSM etc If you're doing that then you need to wait about 30-15mins before the market close. Usually, when we dump this hard and VIX pump so much in one day we'll get a relief rally the next day. BUT! Job report is tomorrow before the market open can kill the relief rally (if there is any lol).

Alive_Signal1722

80% cash to 75% cash...buying shares (TSM) instead of calls for now. This is not advice.

Alive_Signal1722

It is share buying in long winners...started some new TSM positions @ $360...

Alive_Signal1722

Mango manipulation cope is hilarious...keep it coming kiddos. TSM @ $300 is a dream chance...just chilling with some DNUT cheap puts now.

Alive_Signal1722

agreed. TSM makes everyone's chips...even Apples...compute will never go away, just what the compute is being used for which vacillate.

BuyMeaSalad

This is not the time to use leverage or options. Buy to go long, only blue chips at cheap valuations. Any hyperscalers, NVDA, TSM. Keep it simple

Arrowhead_Pride15

Are you 100% certain that we are at the "peak" of the cycle? Because every CEO of every chip company and hyperscaler are saying the opposite. Capex is only projected to go up over the next year and TSM/SKHY/MU etc are have demand exceeding supply for multiple quarters (if not years in TSM case), is it still fair to say as a blanket statement that semiconductors are cyclical commodities? Have you noticed how there are semiconductors and screens and sensors in everything these days from wearables, applicanes, medical tech, autonomous vehicles etc, do you expect all of those industries to just stop using as many semiconductors in the future? Even without AI, post-iPhone has been a pretty consistent increase in demand for this technology for years, is it really fair to just say "whelp chips are cyclical" and sell off some of the most profitable companies in the world? NVDAs net income could fall 30% next year and they would still be in line with AAPL, MSFT, and GOOG as the highest operating profit in the SP500, are we really THAT confident that NVDA profits are going to fall by 30%+ in the next few years? Place your bets!

Fun_Presentation_215

Fuck me why I bought TSM calls yesterday

Bagholder4lifez

Look at the RSI on the daily of NVDA, TSM and the good stuff at 9:30. Would not be surprised if we V today…

Arrowhead_Pride15

Forward PE ratios on some of the most profitable and important tech companies in the world range from 5-7 for Samsung/SKKY/MU, to high teens low 20's for NVDA, GOOG, and TSM. The market has all but priced in the worst case scenario/peak earnings and are fully discounting future earnings as if these companies are doomed to inevitability slow from within the next 12 months, yet every one of them is telling us their demand vastly exceeds supply, baclogs booming (especially at hyperscaler cloud business aka where the largest demand for chips are) and likely will continue for multiple years. The markets fear around the AI supply chain trade has seemingly hit a fever pitch at the same time that earnings are unquestionably surging. NVDA is a better value than WMT and has been trading at a lower pe nearly all year and significantly lower forward PE ratio. Markets are certainly irrational right now

GoldBlueberryy

Memory has always been cyclical. The market has kinda historically hated semiconductors. Looks at the names and indexes before the '23 run ups. They used to be considered the choppiest names to trade. TSM has probably caused many people to become schizophrenics. AMD was the advanced money destroyer for a reason. I think they are just reverting back.

Jtbny

TSM is the play.

Useful_Alarm730

I bought IREN at around $48 about a year ago...sold about a month ago at almost the same price. It's a year wasted. I have lost confidence in the management and in neoclouds in general. Moved all my money into TSM instead.

codespyder

Should have sold my TSM calls when I was up 50% in two days guh

Fun_Presentation_215

Oh I guess my TSM calls are cooked

Fun_Presentation_215

So cool that profitable companies like Duolingo or Moderna can finally soar 25%/13% intraday and poor fuckers with no cash like TSM and AMD are going negative

stars0up

TSM keeps dropping though what do I doooo 😓😓😓😓

zendaddy76

My top holdings are down (NVDA TSM) but my next 4 are up big (MSFT AAPL GOOG AMZN) so I’m in the green. But most of my portfolio is VT and crushing. I might give up on individual stocks, at age 50 I probably don’t need the stress.

autumnbreeznleaves

This is gonna sound like an old guy, but this is why I decided to build my port like building a house. I am also big into the AI trade, but I decided to go w/ more index ETF's. I believe the AI trade isn't dead; but we are going to have sector rotations from time to time that are gonna feel like you got kicked in the balls. I have 75% of my port b/w $VT which I consider my foundation and $VXUS which is my support. I have 15% in the Pacific Asian semi heavy ETFs such as $EWJ, $VPL, and $EWY. I consider that 15% as building my garage. Than I have another 10% in speculative stocks. I consider that 10% as my deck. You need to build your portfolio's foundation and support first. And I am gambling heavily here with a very heavy World ex US port since I believe international stocks will outperform US stocks during this AI data center buildout due to the SK hynix, TSM, Samsung, ASML, etc of the world being heavily weighted in $VXUS and $VT compared to US indices such as $VTI or $VOO. And my port hasn't been fun to look at for the last 2 months. I don't know what you own; but it sounds like you are also an AI riverboat gambler so I'd look at putting new money into building a position in $VT. One huge mistake that I have made in the past is feeling like I had to continue to BTD in the same stocks to make sure I bought the bottom. The problem is we have no idea where the bottom is. It's better to put new money towards a foundation like $VT, $VTI, or $VXUS. If you are right all those stock positions you already own will eventually rebound anyway. But you don't want to get wiped out during these brutal sector rotations by continuing to BTD in the same stocks. It's possible they all rebound tomorrow. But it's also possible they all don't hit their bottoms until a year from now. I would bet on the rebound being sooner rather than later, but I can't guarantee that. Sorry for my long reply.

cbusoh66

AMD $520 last night, closed $483 SMCI up 10% last night to $35, closes at $29.60 Two companies that smoked their earnings calls and guidance. MU below $800, SKHY back to $140s, even TSM is down 16% in less than a month. They're throwing the baby out with the bath water...

f0king

Oof. NVDA under 200 and TSM under 400. Hopefully we see this turn around soon.

Bagholder4lifez

Semis will tank QQQ. NVDA and TSM closing below the 200 = 🩸

f0king

I sold my GOOG at $288 real early thinking it might get dumpy, wish I had held on a bit longer like you did. I did sell my TSM calls at 409.50 which seems like an absolute miracle considering how the day went. I would've lost my shorts on that one, thank god I got scared and sold early.

f0king

gawddamn, TSM below 400 and NVDA about to dump under 200 is wild. RIP

VoidMageZero

Why not MU or TSM?

f0king

Got TSM & NVDA calls today near their lows... Heres hoping it doesn't go lower tmrw lol

Eastern-Contact-2034

So now we wake up and NVDA + TSM giga pump on the swing

f0king

Is TSM actually bankrupt this time?? Lmao wowie glad I sold my 420c for 15% profit when it hit $410 this morning. Gawdang.

Bagholder4lifez

Don't touch SOXL today. TSM is literally sitting on the 200 MA. NVDA just a few cents under. AMD will be on crack cocaine because of the earnings (still over the 200 MA). AVGO, QCOM, INTC and a few others are way under the 200 MA. Do leveraged DOW or Russell if it's your thing.

Diimelo

I keep buying and selling TSM 430s, I'll check 420s

f0king

I'm holding TSM 420s .... Dated at the end of Nov. Reeee

Puzzled-Question-156

Avoid shitcos that have a high probability of going to 0. Examples are CRWV, OKLO, IREN, etc. Buy stocks with strong cash generation, ideally the cash generation capability shouldn't be affected by the bankruptcy of shitcos (Among AI stocks TSM is somewhat safe from AI going bust because the consumer chip demand would simply replace data center chip demand). I like gambling, but it has to be in my favor. Buying stocks that I know would not work in the long term is a bad deal.

codespyder

Been up and down 2.5% on TSM while I’ve been asleep. Im like Mr bean when he passed out on a roller coaster

autumnbreeznleaves

I got a bit of cash since I sold SK and TSM positions before close instead of my Gold position which is the only thing green rn. I think this is an overreaction AH's b/c nearly everyone is overweight in tech & semis stocks rn.

OilBull

Fuck it. 100 shares NVDA TSM GLW AAOI loaded.

octopus_serenader

is TSM still one of the GOATs?

pab_guy

NVDA MSFT GOOG TSM MU are all worthless?

octopus_serenader

i just want to know how this affects TSM

Brat_Roleplay

Do you think TSM and NVDA are good ways to play AMD indirectly?

f0king

Ok I guess TSM is declaring bankruptcy?? Absolutely PLUMMETING

nah_bro_not_interest

buying KLAC LRCX ASML TSM SNDK and a few others.

aBadBandito

Invest in semiconductor fabricators (TSM/Samsung/Intel). This is such a technologically advanced process that there is a huge moat around new market entrants (baring China subsidized entities, but they are still (hopefully) years behind what advanced western fabs can produce). The reason this tech is so important is that it is done using reflected light to cut traces into semiconductor wafers. To ELI5, these traces are the physical pathways that electrical signals signals take to make it to their destination. These destinations are used for logic operator decisions like add/subtract/divide/etc. That is for simplistic terms the hardware basis for all AI (and non AI digital applications as well). The reason the light is used to make these traces is that they are so small (fractions upon fractions the size of a human hair) that mechanical processes like extruding conductive material directly onto/into the wafers are no longer pheasable. Thus, arguably the most advanced piece of technology humans have ever made is used to pack millions/billions of these onto very small wafers that fit into processors inside of your computer/iphone/servers. Being smaller means you can pack more of them, making your computer/phone/server more powerful and capable of performing more complex logic faster. Again, Important as AI is all a mathematical algorithm that is calculating statistical probabilities. Outside of the semi fabs themselves, one company makes the piece of equipment used to make the light traces, ASML (another potentially good investment). Outside if these, memory is another hardware that is required for AI and also uses some of the aforementioned advanced processes. MU/SKHY to name the big ones.

octopus_serenader

Is TSM still a good buy and hold or is it gonna bleed?

octopus_serenader

hmm should i buy more TSM or AAPL. feels like AAPL gonna fall more.

f0king

Just going to keep holding these TSM calls forever watching it bounce between 400-406