TSM

Astronomer_Soft

Decline in price of crypto (BTC, ETH primarily) has the market spooked. Crypto mining has consumed a significant part of high performance computing equipment from which has a knock on effect to their suppliers like ASML, AMAT, LRCX, etc. Last time crypto crashed in 2018, that sector's semiconductor demand ground to a halt. Crypto hasn't quite crashed, but it's enough of a warning to the market that it could which would drag NVDA, TSM, ASML, AMAT, LRCX down. I don't think it's a pure overvaluation issue except maybe NVDA and ASML.

NervousTumbleweed

Ok, but you’re saying “TSM made” as if that’s an advantage in an industry where +90% of all chips are manufactured by TSM. INTC’s design is the factor of importance here, not that TSM is the fab.

Investingwifey

I could be totally wrong on this but one thing investors could be bearish on is the sheer amount of capex these chip companies will have to deploy in order to keep up with the demand. For example INTC will be spending 20 billion on a new factory in Ohio - perhaps investors want to see some return on that investment before taking a position. Long $MU $INTC $TSM

wilhelm96

Also TSM doesn’t make everyone’s GPUs. NVDA’s 3000 series was built on Samsung’s 8nm node.

sammydrums

Buy more TSM

NervousTumbleweed

TSM makes everyone’s GPUs dude. Zero chance INTC designs a GPU that beats NVDA.

wilhelm96

Their TSM based gpu might not completely suck

tb7150

They want them to fucking crack 9 nm in this century. They are far behind $TSM and Samsung, and they aren’t the only domestic foundry (see $GFS)

BoastfulPrudence

Jeses, MU, PLTR, XOM, TSM, NET, why are all their Volumes at like 20% or usual volume at 2pm??? Anyone? MSFT only company I could find with decent Volume today.

Phx-Jay

Nothing else that I can see. For a long time semi-conductors were a very cyclical business. I don’t think that is the case anymore. I think society is just going to use more and more. I thought I read that an average EV car as 1100 of them. China threat is the only issue but TSM still trades at 30 PE. The metaverse is going to increase demand. The said earning will be the 17th now so a few weeks away. TSM blew away earnings so I don’t expect HIMX to be any different.

trpkchkn

Why would you bet against INTC? P/E is super low, they are a huge, extremely profitable company that got beat up in the last few years and have since turned things around. Current CPUs are good and they will only get better, and more importantly, they are building massive new fabs in Europe and elsewhere and are going to open them up, like TSM, and make $$$ doing custom CPUs for everyone. That’s the future of the CPU business.

10xwannabe

Investing in sp500 will give an investor the "equity risk premium" (ERP) that is the expected extra return on top of someone else just investing in bonds to compensate for taking on the risk of equity investing, i.e. losing principle. Fama and French while examining what makes up equity returns throughout history in different equity markets through out the world found that the difference of returns could be explained by: Equity risk premium (beta), small premium, and value premium. That means the found smaller companies and those that are "cheaper" did better long term along with ERP. They named that the Fama-French 3Factor model (FF3F). Now that being said small premium, like the ERP and value premium are EXPECTED returns meaning folks take on that extra volatility with expectation but no guarantee of increased return (thus the risk). In reality, small usually does better in the long run (20+ years of investing), but be prepared for it not to show up at all. Most, if they add small, will do a combination of small AND value along with Total stock market fund. Something like 90/10 to 50/50 (TSM/SCV). Google Jack Bogle's "Tell tale chart" he gave at a Morningstar conference decades ago with is a great presentation on how growth and value and large and small are just cycles so not a good idea to bet ALL on one of them. p.s. Great book. Try reading Allen Roth "How a second grader beat wall street" as another simple book as well. Then Rick Ferri "All about asset allocation" after that. Those will give you a great basis to make an asset allocation that fits for you.

visvisvisvisvisvis

AMD and Nvidia don't make their own chips, TSM makes the chips for them (and others).

c3921

😢. I had a $TSM put and last week cashed it out for $540 and put half of that to cheap $GME calls, hoping I get the money back at least and I’ll be good.

r2002

TSM is building more fabs in Japan, Taiwan, and United States. Intel has a big investment in Ohio that they just recently announced.

EarningsBitch

I wonder if NVDA and AMD earnings will be enough to pump semi's again. I doubt it but it's definitely possible. Poor TSM got like 4 hours to run before we started bleeding for weeks.

chedrich446

Poor TSM. Trades sideways for a full year, finally breaks out, entire market crashes 😭

onmyway7

SPY - 33.67% QQQ - 22.38% GOOGL - 11% TGT - 9.2% AAPL - 6.91% MSFT - 6.27% V - 4.36% TSM - 2.65% F - 2.16% Sofi - 1.38% I’m 23 years old with about 25k in the market. I don’t know if I’m too exposed to tech and if there are any other decent growth stocks to hold. I’m waiting for NVIDIA to find some support or a bottom before a buy into it. Would appreciate any feedback

Downtown_Eye_572

Invest in pure-play foundries and semi equipment manufacturers. GFS, TSM, UMC, AMAT, ASML Logic plays like ADI, TI, NXP, AVGO are fairly cyclical and rife with vertical integration.

EZLEAPS

Listen to this guy. It’s nice having the added leverage until it’s not. I went into this month with nearly 40% exposure to LEAPS spreads. Now I’m down 23% YTD. You can guarantee I don’t plan on going above 20-25% exposure again. I would reserve that exposure to your highest conviction names. I do like some of the names you have listed. I’ve owned equity in TSM since around $50/share. The chart looks good for them here. Good cup/handle. I think FB is really cheap right now. They are a CF machine, but may have a few rough quarters coming up. I have spreads there expiring 2023. I also really like INTC. They are cheap and expect FV to be closer to 60-65. I have LEAPS in that one. Not financial advice, just my own opinion.

SharksFan1

MU and INTC are two of the big exception to the lofty evaluation many of the big semi companies like NVDA, AMD, TSM, NXPI, MRVL are receiving. Even TXN has a PE over 20.

SharksFan1

LOL, good point. Just seems like they have been making a comeback the past few years, especially when you look at a stock like NVDA, but even something like TSM, NXPI and AMD have PEs in the 30s.

Fearboner3000

Yep. Cars, gas, bacon 🤷. As semiconductor supply improves cars should come back down. Semis are massively ramping up capex (see TSM, INTC) for the next super cycle in the long-term and in the shorter term I have to imagine that China is going to stop the zero tolerance COVID lockdown policy at some point in the bearish future which should help the supply chain as well. I should also mention semiconductor stocks are my favorite play right now as a sort of value-tech proposition. Next cycle ramping up currently and still at very very reasonable valuations by traditional measures like P/E (even after their big run up the past couples years) with great tailwinds for increasing profit growth. Seriously I would love for someone to explain to me why MU trades at a P/E of like 12.5 and forward P/E of like 9. Semiconductors are in everything now and only increasing, likely decreasing cyclicality long-term.

Low_Collar3405

I refuse to buy TSM. One move by China against Taiwan and the whole company insta drops 80%

whboer

Honestly, I don’t do ape stuff, and maintain a core - satellite strategy with broadly diversified ETFs at 50% and the rest in stocks such as googl, FB, aapl, Msft, asml and TSM. A 20% dip from here looks shitty right now, but it’s giving me great long term buying opportunities.

AssIsOnTheMenu

LCID might be a little better on paper (maybe not haven’t looked in a minute) but I would also anticipate some pain there. Can’t go way lower but Archer and Lilium also not primed well. Their market doesn’t even exist yet. That being said my crystal ball tells me companies like Nvidia, TSM, and even Ford won’t see too much pain, at least in the onset, due to wonky market mechanics at the moment.

carpitown

We've already had a few examples on how the market is treating earnings. TSM had stellar earnings. It's currently down 12% from its high, with a forward PE of ~PE. JNJ just reported an earnings beat and promptly dumped 3%. Maybe the tempo changes after JPOW speaks. But, for now, down is the flavor of the quarter.

toookoool

Stocks have been down a lot so don’t try to time bottom because nobody knows bottom. Just dollar cost averaging good companies like TSLA, SHOP, NVDA, TSM…

ImBruceWayne69

Invest in long dated options from reputable companies with good P/E and earnings around the corner… TSM, QCOM, CLF, any semi conductor company that just got its shit rocked. Find a good company who’s stock got battered in the sell of and hold it. Just about anything other than this.

bwoahleavemealone

Dumped QQQ, MSFT, AAPL, BABA, NVDA, SQ and TSM calls 2 hours ago for mid 5-digit losses. This is the way. 🤡🤡🤡

trpkchkn

About a month ago I was close to $285k NLV, now I’m barely $200k 😅 Honestly though most of that is unrealized losses on very solid companies - AAPL, MSFT and TSM , all of which I have a low cost basis on (I’m still up on them even with recent losses) so I’m trying not to sweat it much. Just hold on and wait it out.

segfaultsarecool

This isn't financial advice. You mentioned NFLX twice. Lots of streaming competition now, and Disney will not make things easy, nor will Amazon. I'd drop NFLX and do $TSM instead. TSMC is AMD's fab, and fab for a whole lot more. Only risk there is an invasion by China.

ancientusurper

Anyone got any theories as to why TSM is still holding strong during this decline?

sdestrippy

TSM

mohtasham22

long TSM

9tacos

Guess I can rebuy my TSM position at $108 again.

taurusfeeling

I mean to catch up on tech. I think TSM makes 90% of the HPC and defense chips, I believe. In my view semis have become way less cyclical. It’s not like the old days where companies made mass purchases when the new processors came out. There’s chips in everything now, and we’re already way short. I think demand will continue to grow and the change from cyclical to secular has begun. I think 2023 is way too early for oversupply. I’m long SMH, AMAT, TSM, AMKR, MU, and would like to get back into INTC sub 50

dronix111

It's actually pretty simple. There is 3 types of Semi Stocks. 1) Semi Designer. Those are the type of companies, that design the chips. They are the ones who design you graphics card, your CPU, your whatever and then hand it over to someone else to produce it for them. AMD, NVDA, QCOM are those designers. 2) Semi Producers. They are the ones who actually produce the semiconductors for the designers in their fabs. Sometimes you can have both of these types in 1 company, for example Intel is a designer and a producer at the same time. But generally, the producers, produce the semiconductors for the designers. Companies like TSM, UMC, MU 3) semiconductor capital equipment manufacturers (Semi Caps). They are the ones who make all of the stuff, that the producers need to produce semiconductors. They make the machines, the tools, the testing equipment, all kinds of stuff that is needed in the fabs and to built new fabs. Companies like ASML AMAT KLAC LRCX

Starilae

God bless... OP wtf lol..... I did the exact same thing with my kid's saving's account, but I only buy one stock, and thats TSM. When you're buying for your kids, think far into the future, don't buy stupid shit like FUBO and PLTR. That shit may not be around in 10 years.

MinnesotaPower

AXP will be interesting and I don't even own the stock. Their guidance will likely be a bellwether for other travel / reopening stocks. MSFT and AAPL will also be interesting but probably not representative of tech as a whole. I am really looking forward to Lam's call on Wed. The semiconductor sector has gotten whacked so far this year. Could strong earnings and guidance turn the tide? It seemed so after TSM's earnings call, but then the market turned on the sector like a cold-blooded gangsta.

DoneDidNothing

how? TSM said they have weakening chinese cellphone demand, negative dec retail sales, and no stimmi.

nsfwftwbaby

honestly if you're just buying stock you can't go wrong with TSM. Chip is always needed and TSM has pretty much a monopoly on cutting edge chip tech. Even if they correct your only downside is bag holding for another 2 years.

the12ocket

LCRX calls for earnings? They went up bigly when TSM reported.

the12ocket

Calls for LRCX? They shot up after TSM announced.

9tacos

Capex is a big drag. Same for TSM.

Slow_Comment4962

I think a great ER won’t do much this quarter. Just looking at the companies with recent great ER, (e.g. TSM, Bank of America, etc), it went up a bit but then fizzled out again. I think the lack of volume is the issue, there‘s a lot less money in the markets now.

Slow_Comment4962

Markets are retarded right now so who knows. Even TSM is tanking despite the recent impressive earnings.

AbbaFuckingZabba

Too little too late. The market has already worked out the solution, chipmakers charge more. TSM invested and reaping the rewards. INTC isn't. Now we got caught with our pants down and so the politicians just have to give away billions more dollars to large corporations.

xflashbackxbrd

Apple designs chips similar to how AMD or NVDA are "fabless", TSM manufactures them for apple.

Celodurismo

TSM is Taiwanese, it's in the name. Also TSM is building a fab in Arizona, so I wouldn't be surprised if they see tax incentives at a minimum.

Celodurismo

TSM is building a plant in Arizona.

Slow_Comment4962

Look at all the companies that had an earnings beat recently — TSM, Bank of America, UNH, etc. They had a slight momentum right afterwards but fizzled out again quite soon after.

pattycakes999

Jesus Christ cut the loss and put it in something on this dip, I like TSM

DRJeckylll

The reason we went to the Moon, electrified every farm house way out in BFE can drive from coast to coast to move commerce, have the internet and Green Energy being able to compete with fossil fuel for energy was accomplished by the government investing in our nations future. To think the Taiwanese have some special ability is assinine, they became a leader in chip tech because of production costs in the U.S.. Congress will,pass this $52 Billion Bill for chips but TSM last year announced they are spending $100 billion.

2infinitiandblonde

Good idea. I’m down $20k this week. Portfolio value - $56k Leaps on FB, V, TSM, BP No actual stock positions. Let’s see what the hell happens this year. RemindMe! 3 months. RemindMe! 6 months. RemindMe! 9 months. RemindMe! 1 year.

JhoLow_1MDB

INTEL now going to spend $100B to build the world's larget chip plant in Ohio. TSM and INTEL are going toe-to-toe for supremacy. chip equipment suppliers are the clear winner here because TSM and INTEL are both spending insane amounts on capital.

JRshoe1997

TSM is not a Chinese company.

Oscuridad_mi_amigo

TSM gets their government funding from Taiwan, would be surprising if America paid a Taiwan company as well.

JRshoe1997

INTC and TSM I think

JRshoe1997

I don’t think AMD will benefit from it. I think the big companies that would benefit would be INTC and TSM

Slow_Comment4962

Even great earnings don‘t seem to do much in this market. Look at TSM, tanked 10% this week after amazing earnings.

Eclipsed830

Da fuck TSM

trpkchkn

Yup. Haven’t sold a single share of my long term holdings because they are solid companies. MSFT AAPL TSM

Repulsive-Lie-5034

China DID take over Taiwan, I got out of TSM a month ago.

KevJLaw

I've also reached the same conclusion, and have invested heavily into this stock based on this thesis. I'd be interested to hear others thoughts though to make sure I'm not missing anything. Obviously this is a Taiwanese stock, so the risk of China invading is hanging overhead. But that same risk exists for other stocks like TSM and UMC as well. Plus the company has been accused of fraud in the past. But that was Citron, and we all know they are full of shit. I do also know that recently at an investor conference Himax indicated their Q4 earnings will be at the upper end of their guidance (.74-.79). So it is likely pretty safe to assume somewhere around 2.45 EPS for 2021. Even if they only did a 50% payout, which is lower than ever before in the company's history of profitable years, that would still be 450% higher than last year's dividend, and the stock price was $15 then ($11 now). If you want to take your analysis one step further, look at the stock price in previous years and what the dividend yield was on the ex-dividend date. The price seems to have always normalized somewhere between a 1-4% yield. Assuming they do issue a large dividend again this year, and the yield normalizes in roughly the same way, we could potentially see the price spike anywhere from $25 to something as ridiculous as $70 in June. Institutions are not going to pass up that juicy free money. I'm just utterly confused at how undervalued this company is, given the insane growth, the fundamentals, and the likelihood of a huge dividend. And even if the price inexplicably doesn't budge from where it is today, you can simply hold tight and collect the massive dividend. I'm picking up as many shares as I can afford in this price range, along with some 2023 LEAPS. Now I just need China to behave themselves.

coldtacomeat

Very true. Can I ask what your TSM positions are?

coldtacomeat

Nice. Thanks for the reply bud. I like TSM but there is a pretty large geo political risk obviously.

JayArlington

Broader macro environment is a fucking mess (as I am sure everyone sees). SEMIcaps and the semi sector in general are both very strong for the next year. AMAT worries me for earnings specifically because they have a very complex supply chain and thus have lots of points of potential risk. That being said, the TSM earnings call is ridiculously bullish and there are some insane research notes showing the semi equipment spend for this year is well over 110B (was ~90B in 2021). I did some light dip buying at the end of today.

PeddyCash

TSM GANG 👍. No QCOM?!?!? Cmon jay !

Anymeans6

What do you think would be tye better recovery play? GME or semi conductors like Himax and TSM?

Kitten_Team_Six

Boy TSM really fucked me, i had such high hopes. Nothing to do but cry

Chalupa_89

Not unaware. I don't touch TSM since Biden went into office. When the chinese take over Taiwan, it's over for TSM stock.

Snooprematic

TSM already falling. Only a matter of time before semi get dragged down

0005AD99

Probably calls on QQQ and mix of growth that was struggling (ADBE, ROKU, TSM and some TSLA lottos) RSI of NQ was as low as March 2020 yesterday. tight stops thou, no need to front run this trade, we might still drop more

BorisYeltzen

This guy gets it - imagine once they take over the TSM factories.. It will be their first target. Chinese need the tech.

Odd-Block-2998

How many TSM puts you have? I have 11.

josh198989

I bottled it. Probably the right move. Feel like haven’t back the right horse since the TSM earnings so not moving on anything. Morale is low 😂

PentaLem

I already have a lot of my portfolio in semis, so right now for individual companies I'm looking at TSM, SONY, NFLX, SOFI, and AMZN. Maybe DIS if it falls even lower.

PentaLem

I'm big on TSM too. Their MOAT is absolutely insane

Opeth4Lyfe

If Intel can deliver even 80% on the roadmap and get the foundry business running it’s worth a gamble imo. I think they have a decent shot and have the cash flow and CapEx to at least be another TSM….not better…but even 2nd place is still good enough at these current valuations.

OtherwiseAd2733

Shit lmao, been talking about TSM and AMD all day.....at least it wasn't a 4 for SPY...

OtherwiseAd2733

I would not play weeklies for earnings right now. Coming from a guy that mainly plays earnings .. go take a look at ASML today. Amazing guidance and great earnings. 3 weeks ago, ASML would have popped up 10-16% on that news. Maybe if we're back in bull territory, I'd say yes, but I personally wouldn't. With that being said, ANY semiconductor this year is going to have fantastic earnings. We're in the middle of a chip shortage that isn't going to get better any time soon.. I banked on TSM earnings, and I started loading the boat on AMD for next weeks earnings today. Only reason I did is because i fully hedged with weekly puts. I will probably offload at least half before earnings.

10xwannabe

Vanguard sp500 ETF is VOO It is same cost from any provider. Nothing special of Vanguard offering. If fidelity has a zero cost etf version I would consider that one. Either way I would consider a TSM (total stock market ETF) instead. Total stock market covers 97% of the available stock market and sp500 only covers the 70% (just large caps).

SintashtaRapist69

100 TSLA shares F, AMD, RTX, NVDA, TSM calls

88crypto

Smh. MSFT today's chart looks like TSM week chart