TSM

Amebocrypto

No one is promoting anything, if all you care is about the news, fine, then people that use news to read the market knows the stocks that are valuable now, already long TSM will show my PNL when it triggers

GuiltyShirt3771

Please chairman Xi, do something so my TSM put will print

-B-H-

I’m DCA back into Microsoft, TSM, RDDT. They haven’t changed value in this chaos.

TacticalcalCactus

Quick, sell TSM because Mag 7 is about to drop a large country worth of GDP into hardware.

kool_mandate

My theory is that this is a selling opportunity in oil (maybe not today , but soon) If it was me , I wouldn’t hold those calls for longer than 1-3 weeks . I started selling covered calls on GD today and bought VOO leaps . I just read an article in the financial times about hedge funds that overweight EM equities are starting to get anxious. (Although I think selling in TSM is etf driven )

Trashpanda7193

What’s that brief spike on TSM?

MichaelJamesBurry

They got hit with indian shit that is gonna tank better invest in TSM

Comfortable-Sky7801

When do we start buying the dip? There’s some nice sales going on. NVDA, MU, TSM

SpaceCatVII

I want to buy more TSM but also seems like the perfect time for China to invade Taiwan rip

supsupman1001

tesla is not xAI, and xAI is not spacex, spacex just recently acquired xAI. nvda is heavily involved with xAI, but with xAI exponentially breaking a growth wall, they will design their own chips, direct to TSM, direct to their own ecosystem. Many people discount what AI will be capable of in a few years, and if anything Musk vision has proved that he doesn't want to rely on competitors, this will be central to how AI operates as each becomes more proprietary, and less run on a flawed NVDA common ecosystem.

wilhelm96

If the strait remains closed for more than 2 weeks Taiwan’s LNG reserves are depleted, all non essentials are shut off and TSM is proper fucked.

azk1202

It's not. That would be projecting a very American reason to want Taiwan onto a country with a very different (and far older) culture and history. The way the Chinese government acts and views things is basically like a Chinese dad - a bit too traditional, far too stubborn and sometimes quite abusive, but in general they do things for the long term or greater benefit of the people (or as retaliation after 'putting up with shit' for too long). Unless you have absolutely no exposure to East Asian culture, I think with that sort of comparison it should be easy to see that for TSM chips, the Chinese government's policy is to incentivise everyone to "study hard and become an engineer and work hard and take apart the chips until you can make better chips or you're disowned and won't receive ~~Chinese New Year money~~ grants anymore". Then for Taiwan itself, I personally find it difficult to understand although I understand where it's coming from. Taiwan is allowed to govern itself as long as it does not declare independence. China will take over if it declares independence because **they want to ensure no American military operations and bases on an island very close to major shipping ports**. This type of arrangement was agreed to by most countries decades ago. Because the Chinese government acts like a Chinese dad, 1) they're far too stubborn and unwilling to look at alternative solutions, and 2) would view going against an agreement as betrayal. It's essentially for similar reasons as to why China (and most East Asian countries) have extremely harsh laws against drug possession, usage, etc. The British turned people into opium addicts because they didn't have anything else of value to exchange for tea, used military force when the Chinese government tried to curb the issue and subsequently forced unfair treaties to be signed after 'winning the war'. It's a "history must be prevented at whatever cost" type of thing. East Asian conflicts over the past couple of centuries are pretty much all due to outside interference and Western colonialism. The last Chinese dynasty essentially went to shit because it was ruled by 'barbarians from the north' who destroyed relationships with their neighbours which subsequently allowed everybody to be invaded by Western countries and the Japanese (who had adopted Western imperialism after America threatened to shoot them all if they didn't open their ports/borders). Europe managed to grow out of doing that kind of thing but America still continuously does it to this day. Just look at Venezuela and even the shit that was pulled this weekend. Current president even makes American foreign policy and political propaganda blatantly obvious so I find it quite amazing how slow people are to catch on. Taiwan is unfortunately never going to have the chance to negotiate independence until America significantly reduces the number of military bases they have in Asia. Some countries want to be able to export and import goods without having to worry about the threat of military force if they don't cave into every American demand.

wiz0mystic

TSM is the reason they want Taiwan

Maximum-Magazine-333

All China has to do when they annex Taiwan is say TSM is all yours America, everybody wins and SPY 800

Reasonable-Owl-232

>We've attacked a country and there is uncertainty on what happens next. How does china, and other countries like Russia, further respond other than calls for de-escalation? What happens if China increases pressure on Japan again which would could result in very real problems for TSM and tech?  Russia has spent four years and still can't take Ukraine. Japan, like everyone else, is on the US side. Nobody cares about Iran, even their Islamic neighbours.

PretendAgency2702

People saying it's priced in are coping. It's been range bound for 4-5 months and economic data has only gotten worse. We are on the mid to higher end of that range too.  We've attacked a country and there is uncertainty on what happens next. How does china, and other countries like Russia, further respond other than calls for de-escalation? What happens if China increases pressure on Japan again which would could result in very real problems for TSM and tech?  Maybe we will rise long term but its just crazy to me that people expect Monday to be very green. I could obviously be very wrong but there's just so many unknowns right now hinging on crazy people who only want what's best for themselves and their buddies. 

King_Shurik

In case I didn't understand you, are you convinced that semiconductor stocks (NVDA, TSM, ASML, etc.) will rise on Monday because of the attack on Iran?

SanchoVilla91

Should of got them TSM puts

minammikukin

But....I sold most of my EWY amd FLKR over the fears of Korea crashing. Love Korean market, but Samsung and Hynox control 50% (roughly) of market. If it falters as it looked to start over the past 2 days...it could bring down a lot of foreign markets with it. If you look at how many of the foreign ETFs have Samsung, Hynix, and TSM in the top 3....if stop losses start getting hit and the dominoes start...it will ripple badly.

Mobile619

I can see your point. But if the war with Iran isn't quick and drags out and the US uses up a significant chunk of their missile and defense systems defending assets and Israel in the region and takes casualties, China may think this is their best opportunity to go for Taiwan while we have our hands full. I don't want either to happen because Netanyahu can fight his own damn wars, and I own over 200 shares of TSM. At the end of the day, there's no winning with war outside of those in the military industrial complex.

miketdavis

I had LEAPs on TSM on 2022. I lost about $20k so I sold it. I would be a multimillionaire if I hung onto them until now. 

Due-Reporter-7004

adding to TSM

wrongrobertpatrick

TSM is the move

BLVCKWRAITHS

Pro here: $NVDA trades down EVERY earnings. Forward PE is around 17.5 which is discounted to the market. The worry is with TSM and future fabrication costs. Position has been trading sideways since Sept and continues to base. EPS will double this year…..

Saubstauger3000

I prefer Great Eight with TSLA out but AVGO and TSM in

Sunny-Olaf

All AI connected assets are under pressure. Check GEV, CAT, VRT, TSM, MU. Not just NVDA.

iiGoodVibesii

TSM is sexy

Emily_anon

Facts. Bought TSM two years ago and scared to buy more now but keeps going up

looool_k_libtard

Love TSM getting dragged down even though they report monster numbers every single month

SighRamp

TSM wow

-B-H-

I’m playing TSM because NVDA guidance is going to say they are buying as many as they can make

iiGoodVibesii

Why is TSM dropping..?

Key-Detective-422

APPL, TSM, NVDA, MU👍 If you plan to hold for long periods of time QQQM/SPYM > QQQ/SPY

DrB00

TSM also shot up after good earnings from NVDA

DrB00

TSM stock also jumped after NVDA earnings.

InverseTheUniverse

Diamond hand it playa I promise you we haven't been drip buying NVDA, ASML, MU, and TSM like goblins.

No-Understanding2406

the fact that AAPL went UP on news that the CIA told their CEO china might invade their primary supplier tells you everything you need to know about how markets actually process geopolitical risk: they do not. the TSM +4.25% move is even more absurd. the thesis here is apparently "if china invades taiwan, TSMC fabs get destroyed or captured, but somehow this is bullish for TSM stock?" the only way this makes sense is if you believe the invasion threat accelerates the diversification premium - TSM arizona becomes more valuable as an insurance policy. which is reasonable, except that fab is still years from matching taiwan yields and produces maybe 5% of TSMC total output. also SubterraneanAlien is right that this is 3-year-old news being recycled. the CIA has been briefing tech CEOs about taiwan risk since at least 2021. the NYT article adds some color but the actual intelligence assessment has not changed. the 2027 timeline has been floating around defense circles for years. nothing about this is new, which is exactly why the market shrugged. the real trade if you genuinely believe china invades taiwan is not long TSM. it is short literally everything, because a taiwan conflict would make 2008 look like a minor correction.

Aggravating_Sir_4709

Like I get TSM and ASML are must owns, but there comes a time where these guys will be the death of someones port, and its another one of those 10% juice left kind of situations.

ReynardMuldrake

Nearly 60% of my portfolio is shared between NVDA, ASML, TSM, SNPS, and GOOGL. That's not by design. I've been holding since 2017-2019 and they used to make up more like 10-15% I've already sold enough NVDA to lock in my gains, so I'm fine letting it ride. I don't mind the short-term turbulence. I believe in this sector long-term.

JoshGordon10

If you're interested in this, look into P/E ratios and other objective value metrics during the dot com bubble, and compare them to valuations now. Look at specific sectors and different market caps (ex Google and MSFT and NVidia, NBIS and Coreweave, Figma and Bigbear AI, TSM and Monolithic Power). Read some articles of better informed people than reddit. Draw your own conclusions, and let us know what you find. We'll all be better informed for it.

somewhere_cool

I don't understand why TSM 395 is so much to ask for. I specifically requested it

Taiyoken

I mean you can just buy TSM if you want TSM

-B-H-

TSM leveraged until Friday. Missiles flying over the weekend turns everything red, so buy puts on Friday expiring Monday.

drgreenthumb12372

just since december 2024 when i pivoted to int markets and gold/silver, my all ExUS retirement account returned gains of 43% in 2025, and the 80k i threw in gold and silver is sitting at 170k. I don’t see a US tech boom delivering me that level of return anytime soon, and even if it did, i’m loaded up on plenty of TSM so i wouldn’t miss it either way.

NVDAismyg0d

TSM literally hit ATH yesterday and you’re buying puts🤡

sunburn74

The problem is TSM produces 90% of advanced chips. It has nothing to do with china markets. Its that everything in the US suddenly wouldn't be able to be made. Cars, phones, gpus, cpus, pretty much everything that has a chip you care about is made by TSM.

iiGoodVibesii

Do I just buy more TSM calls?

somewhere_cool

Idk why but TSM is just printing baggers during this speech

guhhhh_MU

I considered TSM. Just chose micron

messengers1

You should have yolo TSM instead. It is no brainer. Breaking ath record. Keep jumping high gradually. It is still not too late to do it.

somewhere_cool

TSM has a rocket lit under its ass goddam

BNA-mod

OMG! Such a loser! META DID NOT SOAR! It’s STILL down nearly 20% from last October. EPS sucks at 2.65. P/E is way too high. Try stock that actually has a real EPS like TSM at an EPS of 97.5.

iprocrastina

It's not new information, the US government has been warning about a planned Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2027 for years now. And TSMC was founded in no small part to act as leverage for Taiwan when seeking alliances against Chinese invasion. Every TSM investor is well aware China could decide to invade and that the fabs are rigged to self-destruct in such an event, its factored into the price. Why do you think the company that more or less has a monopoly on chip fabrication is priced so low?

-B-H-

Leveraged TSM, NVDA earnings will say they are ordering as many high end semiconductors as TSM can make. Pull out Friday end of day in case missiles fly over the weekend

Mobile619

I've come to the conclusion it's best to just hold nowadays. Especially with TSM given their monopoly. My brokerage account balance would be 70% higher today if i just held my 140 shares of TSM and didn't sell/pivot away to other stocks which haven't done anywhere near as well. Thankfully i've held TSM in my 401k and my 160 shares there are up almost 90%.

Life_Without_Lemon

In the past when I held TSM they would go down every time there was drama in the South China Sea. So I sold partly due to that and Trump winning (believe he would sell Taiwan out with a bit of bribe). Now after I exit TSM it becomes mute to geopolitical drama. SMH

Astronaut_4_Hire

Why would TSM be the move if this were to hypothetical happen? I would think a domestic semi conductor alternative like intel or ON would be the play.

trentcoolyak

Yeah I have absurdly deep OTM puts on TSM that I refresh every 6m for that reason

Spear_n_Magic_Helmet

I have the TSM

SunriseSurprise

It's insane to me that TSM is a $2 trillion company and MSFT is under $2.9 trillion.

Abe2025

I knew i should have bought TSM. Fck!

Mysterious_Sock_7085

Aint no way TSM pumps and NVDA dumps tmrw, I mean been a dud since last 8 months, a lil pump to 200 won't hurt

therossboss

TSM GOOG MSFT NBIS AMZN type shi

Indra_Sx

Just buy and hold $TSM 😍😍

InvestigatorPlus3229

TSM 2 trillion by april

NVDAismyg0d

TSM been building their Arizona plant for 15 years 

iiGoodVibesii

Thank you, TSM. I needed this.

AluminiumCaffeine

TSM helping me out a lot today, 2nd biggest position and still no trims from me really probably should be but I dont want to lol

iiGoodVibesii

I love you TSM. Go go go

somewhere_cool

TSM can't stop won't stop

iFiredIce

That's why I'm dumpin my TSM calls today to grab mad puts on NVIDIA lol NVIDIA earnings weeks have become crazy predictable atp

iiGoodVibesii

Okay so TSM has my tits jacked. What else can I get jacked on? Lithium? COPPER? WHAT

unholy-confetti

shouldve full ported TSM instead of META this shit keep going down

iiGoodVibesii

TSM is still pumping and you're still NOT buying.

iiGoodVibesii

So I buy TSM and win?

FinishWarm1746

TSM pumpin 🤌🤌🤌

iiGoodVibesii

TSM breaking new all time highs, and your not buying.

iiGoodVibesii

TSM new all time highs by the minute. Literally

GuiltyShirt3771

Should bought TSM

GuiltyShirt3771

Feel like only MU and TSM will go up this year. Mag 7 will drag

iiGoodVibesii

TSM new all time highs

kool_mandate

Yea semis are a pretty obvious secular bull market too. They do still have a cyclical nature though. A company’s capex will eb and flow. But strong cybersecurity is increasingly mandatory. I’m long TSM and LRCX. TSM is probably one of the most important companies in the world. semis, payments (v/ma) and cybersecurity, have been my favorite sectors for a decade

gamjatang111

ya i consider that semis anything in soxx is semis so you have your MU TSM as well

BiblicalAss

sounds like.. buy TSM

NVDAismyg0d

In 6 months the only stocks that will go up are NVDA, VRT, NBIS, TSM, GEV and Google. Everything else will be obsolete and worthless   

YoungMonty619

Yes, exactly! Spread out too much. Say, TSM goes up 40% in the next 6 months for example, you don't even have a full share. It would be better to just pick less than 10 and focus on accumulating shares at a good price (unless you're Dollar Cost Averaging).

looool_k_libtard

Pretty sure my entire portfolio besides Google and TSM has been in a downtrend since October

RadiantCitron

Personally that just feels like a lot to manage. My port is made up of three funds (VOO/VXUS/FSELX) and then two individual company stocks (GOOG/TSM).

warm_fork

Semi conductors correlate heavily to copper, silver too, look at the charts on TSM vs copper & they look almost identical

MaxEhrlich

272k to divide into shares of MU, SNDK, NVDA, GOOGL, AMD, TSM, AVGO, AAPL, AVAV whatcha think?

piszczel

They're like nvidia, but worse, and don't even have a manufacturing advantage since they compete for same TSM fab time.

NVDAismyg0d

Here’s the playbook. VIX just hangs out ~$20. NVDA beats earnings because: 1.) they sandbag their revenue and guidance every quarter to always ensure a “beat” 2.) Meta, AWS, Google, MSFT, Oracle, TSM already reported they INCREASED AI capex VIX immediately goes -20% and then melts down for the next 2 weeks and the bull market continues. It’s really not that complicated 

iFiredIce

TSM pump one tim pls

wilhelm96

If TSM manufactures a chip in Phoenix but ships it to Taiwan for advanced packaging the finished GPU is now a product of Taiwan, as customs classifies packaging as a substantial transformation

Rand-Seagull96734

I have a slightly different take: there is a real shift happening here and the street is not wrong in detecting it. Just like the value on the LLM stack has moved down to the chip companies and their suppliers - NVDA > ASML + TSM as one example, or GOOG (TPU) > BRCM > ASML + TSM as another - with models and cloud providers losing value, or having to invest a lot just to stand still share wise, the value in Cyber security will move down to hardware with enterprises being able to easily build agentic Cybersecurity workflows. This is based on the fact that a lot of what these Cybersecurity SAAS firms do is mask the grodiness of today's hardware as well as change and version management of messy underlying hardware elements not designed properly. Hardware elements are going to improve by cleaning up their data and agentic/API interface so enterprises can build their own cbersecurity workflows with agentic API without having to pay an arm and a leg to the Cybersecurity SAAS companies. Another reason SAAS companies are suffering in general has been their escalating costs after lockin which no CFO likes. PANW will suffer just like Adobe for that reason.

Due-Reporter-7004

Im still in AI bottlenecks like AMAT,ASML, or TSM

Due-Reporter-7004

From a random highschooler: Long TSM?

cowardunblockme

MU, TSM, GEV, LRCX. Bought on Liberation day last April.

ArQ7777

Do not forget how Trump showed how much hates TSM in the same public announcement. If I owned TSM shares, I would take profits immediately considering how much gains in the past year.

prana_fish

It's not a new stage. They always report last after all the hyperscalars, $TSM, $AMD, etc. Market is not that stupid. It knows the numbers and who it's going to at this point. It's about taking the profit and running. Redistribute elsewhere because everyone is already balls deep long $NVDA.