TSM

Mik3Hunt69

Brookfield, Amazon, uber, alphabet, TSM, SPGI, Mastercard, novo nordisk, mercado libre. I own all of these and I think they will give a strong market beating return in the next 5 years

Upstairs_Whole_580

You're goddamn right I do and I don't think it's anywhere NEAR the top. I've watched this stock for 8 years now since I first invested. 2,000 shares in at 136 I believe in 2019 and another 1000 at in early '23. NVDA is cheap right now and I realize there are some ugly Macro conditions...which is why I went a year out. They're going to come in around 70B in Q4 and that's assuming no revenue from China(and I think there will be some) and I think their Q2 F'27 earnings will be \~90B, net revenue of \~50B). I think the whole "The AI bubble has popped," story is nonsense and the next cycle of earnings will prove this. Hell, I think THIS cycle has proven it's not a bubble, it was just due a little bit of a correction, but I think AVGO going from \~425 after hours during the earnings to 325 is a gross overreaction to them beating across the board. Even Oracle had a decent earnings and it's down... what, 30%(I don't have a position in ORCL). I read the comments of the designer of Ironwood regarding the sell-off of NVDA after rumors they may sell their TPUs(no different than when META was on the verge of their own big breakthrough in '22 and '24 or AMZN every year) about the NVDA selloff and how clueless the market is about hardware and the demand. Cloud service is supply constrained and I think NVDA will hit 275 end of calendar 2026. That's my belief and that's where I'm putting my money, but I think saying "the top is in," on Nvidia at \~180 or whatever it is exactly, is... not accurate. I we're going to see several million H200's sold to China this year and AI CapEx shows... absolutely no sign of slowing. 500B in backlogged sales through the end of Fiscal '27 without OpenAI and without China. 200 contracts, bought last week when it was trading at about 172 cost me about \~215K I should probably be hedging given my position, but... I'm not going to. I could sell right now and take a... little 10K win, but I think this stock just pulled back, corrected and it's getting ready for another run. Maybe not until after next earnings. I think it'll likely trade mostly sideways until we get more clarity on China, but I think it'll sail past a 5T market cap to 6T in 2026. I'm primarily an investor and I just picked up another 7500 shares of AMZN... which I think is the safest of the large caps next year ahead of only TSM, but I liked the pullback. If I lose the entire \~220, I'm fine. If it goes the way I think it will... I'll be out by March and re-evaluating. It's just play money. My retirement is in Vanguard, my Roth in Fidelity. My cash is in a separate fidelity account. Only other thing I may do is buy 5-6 more BTC, but... I'm holding off.

Complex_Variation_

TSM

Much_Dealer8865

TSM is one of my core holdings, they've shown to have a successful business strategy and are the backbone of semiconductor manufacturing right now. I personally think China is going to continue advancement on their own semiconductor companies and may possibly get on their level in the next 5-10 years, invasion of Taiwan is unlikely especially due to this. TSM and customers have roadmaps of the next several process nodes and have already successfully produced the next couple of generations, it isn't stopping anytime soon.

Brochoa

TSM, NVDA, MU, AVGO, and AMD. Enterprise and AI will continue to boom Q1 and Q2

bartturner

Google. The latest TPUs, Ironwood, are rumored to be twice as efficient as the best from Nvidia, Blackwell. That means the same sized data center, power, cooling gets twice the output. That is just huge. There are so many reasons why it is likely it is true on the efficiency. One is the fact that Google is using N3P at TSM for Ironwood, V7 TPU. Where Nvidia is using 4NP for Blackwell. Google has already contracted with Foxconn to do the assembly of the boards.

apeawake

That’s really great.  I made 15% in my main account which was remarkable because the vol was minimal. Max draw down was 3%. I caught the bottom in Google and made some good trades in Applied TSM and ASML with minimal risk from where I bought in April. I owned a good sized gold position until October.  Made 57% in my Roth taking highest conviction bets (lot of google here, too) Made 7% :/ in my smaller Ira being conservative - names like CNI, Pepsi, Vici

JDVances_Couch69

TSM

AyumiHikaru

Where is NVDA/AAPL/AMD/GOOG/AVGO/INTC going to get its chips if TSM goes belly up ??? LOL

kasite

If China invades Taiwan, every stock will tank 50%, not just TSM.

FinishWarm1746

TSM won’t break 300 fuck

zendaddy76

Personally I would invest equally in both on maybe say January 1st and see which one wins in 3-5 years. I did this in 2025 in my Roth, with NVDA AVGO TSM, and it was fun to watch the horse race, and it also prevented me from tinkering along the way.

johnmiddle

jsut buy TSM anytime

bartturner

Foxconn is NOT competing with TSM. Google uses TSM for the fabrication of the TPUs. Foxconn is to assemble the boards WITH the TPU chip that was fabricated by TSM.

FinishWarm1746

US approves billions 11billion in arms sales to Taiwan. TSM calls are well protected 

Humbash

I made some money on TSM today. I think it fucks tomorrow as well. Will buy cheap lottos eod.

CommunicationGlad678

Keep your Nvidia. Start focusing on some ETFs like QQQ and VOO and maybe add a few more single stocks like TSM, Google, and Amazon. Make sure you also diversify geographically (GMF and INDA?) as well as industry-wise.

Helpful-Quarter-8632

Better sell before it does like TSM, NVDA, AVGO. They all had good earnings and then shit the bed the next trading day.

TheDonFulio

Something tells me TSM, INTC, and Samsung won’t be leaving ASML for Chinese counterparts. Even then, it’s a big if true

looool_k_libtard

Don’t even understand why TSM and NVIDIA are getting crushed today lmao shit is so fucking stupid

optionsCone

When several megacaps drop over 3% at the same time, it drags the entire Nasdaq lower (NVDA, GOOG, TSLA, AVGO, TSM, ORCL)

looool_k_libtard

You know it’s fun times when Google and TSM are destroying your port today

H6UEF4WU8X

I just bought SIL and TSM.

FinishWarm1746

Not avgo but TSM. They supply their chips and seeing the after hours chart shoot straight down from hitting ATH really hurt lol

Prudent-Corgi3793

I'm an AI bull, and I think this may be the best thing. You have four profitable hyperscalers (MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, META) which were spending aggressively, but previously within their means, clearly showing accelerated growth as a result of their investment in AI. There is a real risk to excessive capex spending, but the underlying businesses will be fine. You also have three mega caps with the shovels (NVDA, TSM, ASML) with impenetrable moats. Their stocks have soared, but their performance has backed this up. Is there risk? Sure, only to the extent that we may be projecting this growth too far into the future, but their multiples have actually compressed. Maybe add AVGO to this as well--a great company, but richly valued, very justifiable if this boom cycle continues. Then we have the signs of the bubble all the bears talk about: - Preprofitable companies with narrow moats spending hundreds of times their ARR in capex. - Legacy database providers needing to commit hundreds of billions in capex to get into the AI game. - Newer automotive or database companies rebranding as "AI" trading at hundreds of times earnings (or even sales). - Rocket companies, most of them prerevenue, mooning due to the possibility of launching datacenters into space? - Neoclouds with junk bond status with market caps approaching $100 billion before reaching profitability. - Energy companies with no experience raising $16 billion in IPO not only before reaching profitability, but without even a **single cent of revenue**. - Private startups raising money at $12 billion valuation not only without profitability or revenue, but not even a product or customer. If/when this collapses, the entire sector (and the entire market) will take a hit, because no one's really going to distinguish between the good companies and the bad ones. If the bandaid needs to be ripped off, I'm starting to come around to the idea that a quick crash might be best. I'll be piling into the good companies afterwards, hoping for a lightning fast recovery a la the COVID crash and subsequent boom.

-B-H-

Tesla going up more than TSM, GOOGLE? Fuck this backwards week.

Manu_Militari

Yes - there have been many changes to accounting, this post wasn't mean to be a geek out on accounting but an approachable read for the most impactful changes. I acknowledge goodwill is no longer amortized. Yes - this is a boost to current earnings reporting vs historical but that is a small impact compared to current SBC expensing and the amortization of acquired intangible assets. Goodwill was amortized over 40 years prior... and i disagree regarding your point on revenue recognition standards loosening. There is a much more defined recognition of revenue today, companies of the past were able to defer revenue recognition to 'game' when it would be most effective. Now revenue recognition is matched to product transfer and to contract obligations being met. Yes, this moves the revenue recognition earlier often but its much more in line with accounting matching principles. There will always be 'judgement' rules for companies to attempt to manipulate earnings, thats why you need to reseasrch companies and look at financial statements. GAAP isn't a perfect system. Circular financing is a real concern right now. I agree. Again, company specific mainly revolving around OpenAI and their deals. I think there are problems with that. Regarding semis - I mean, I am talking about the aggregate SP500 market as a whole. There will always be company specific nuances. Show me a company that reports zero cost of goods sold. Fabless companies dont net revenue against payments to TSM.

SpongEWorTHiebOb

With the move to fair value based accounting, standards have become more relaxed regarding revenue recognition and contract accounting. In addition companies are probably understating bad debt reserves and reserves for returns and allowances in connection with aggressive revenue recognition. As another commentator mentioned Goodwill is generally no longer amortized. These major changes over the past 10 to 15 years have allowed greater flexibility for companies to manage (game) their earnings. It’s a mistake to say that accounting has become stricter, resulting in the recognition of more costs and expenses. Case in point are some of the semiconductor companies and their contracts with nonpublic LLM companies. There is some concern that the industry is not really making as much money as they claim and many of the deals are cost pass throughs. The semi conductor designers collect a toll or service fee. They don’t make the chips but outsource to TSM. They then net the payment received from the LLM against the costs paid to TSM. Zero cost of goods sold. The toll is then reported as revenue in their services segment at 100% margin. This is probably perfectly acceptable under GAAP since the contract terms control how revenue is recognized. Lastly, public companies fiercely resist changes that limit their options or reduce their earnings. This is the USA. does anyone really think companies who are looking to sell their stock are going to roll over to a bunch of pencil pushers at FASB. Wake up.

Sugamaballz69

I think they still have a few more years at least. It might be smart to change most of NVDA shares out for TSM though. Slightly less aggressive growth but much more sustainable long term

Emergency_Gold_9347

TSM of course. They are the contract manufacturer for NVDA among others.

jcoigny

This isn't even possible as TSM has sold out all capacity N4 and smaller through 2027. They are the only producer capable of building the processors and share the few fabs that are capable with apple and Broadcom and AMD. Do they expect to tell apple sorry man no more iphones for the next six months ok we need more ai chips!

-B-H-

Google, TSM. I am always hopeful to catch inverse Tesla. That bitch has got to fall eventually.

BasSTiD

Whole thing balances on TSM/ASML. Could see argument for AMAT argument but that’s the easiest of the 3 to get around. NVidia will come to earth somewhat. Intel has resorted to lobbying as they have had poor fabs and architecture for years and added to that with a poor response to issues recently. AMD of the 3 has the most room to run. Most of the GPU/AI architecture advantage is gone already it’s just current software is designed with CUDA in mind rather than AMD/others. Performance to watt with die size in mind on gaming (which takes AMD more seriously) already has them near even. AMD has had a huge advantage in defect rate on the CPU side due to chiplets and will almost for sure be the first to do it on the GPU/AI side. With limited foundry availability and defect parts not being comped, this is the next major step. If I was betting, ASML long, TSM long, AMD long. Uranium for power delivery as transistors are already a dozen or less atoms wide. Whoever can leverage MIT’s research into more efficient TEG’s as well which should go a good ways towards power recovery. Industry is going to be linked to energy for at least a decade now. The whole sector lost its luster a bit for me though with AI. The back turning on consumer facing products is lame (well outside AMD anyway). AMD gained data center CPU ground by hitting consumers first and proving their architectures advantages. They’re slowly doing the same with GPU’s now.

SpongEWorTHiebOb

Broadcom has had accounting and reporting issues in the past. It’s widely reported that their latest deal with Anthropic is a cost pass through structure where AVGO acts as a middle man collecting a toll. The cost paid to TSM never shows in cost of sales or is offset by the reimbursement received from Anthropic. The toll gets reported in its services segment and appears as 100% margin but AVGO does little to add value. The toll is also relatively minor relative to the costs. It’s an accounting gimmick. If this gets confirmed and if it’s a wide spread then this will be a big scandal.

PickleRickleTV

META and TSM are not in VGT. TSM is also not in VOO, only in VT. So really only quadruple dipping Google. Triple dipping META I wanted to be overweight in META, TSM and especially Google 🤷🏼‍♂️. I bought META on the recent dip at ~$600. Average Google price is ~$250. TSM is ~$270.

PickleRickleTV

META and TSM are not in VGT. TSM is also not in VOO, only in VT. So really only triple dipping Google. I wanted to be overweight in META, TSM and especially Google 🤷🏼‍♂️. I bought META on the recent dip at $600. Average Google price is ~$250. TSM is $270.

Ascorbinium_Romanum

Can we stop calling Tesla mag 7 ? We can replace it by TSM for example, that is a real stock and not a meme.

PickleRickleTV

Or just buy stocks. I’d say 60% of my portfolio is in VOO, VGT and VT. 40% is in stocks like Google, Meta, TSM and a bunch of space stocks. Most for 1 position is about 4-5% of my port.

looool_k_libtard

There is zero reason for TSM to be getting clobbered lmao

drakevibes

I’m just talking about since yesterday, not overall. TSM down over 3%

BearishBull69_

Catch me loading up on TSM

Outrageous_Tip_2133

Agreed. I think it is continuation of profit-taking trend in AI stocks that started around Halloween. ORCL's disappointing earnings were an exception. Most AI stocks have had stellar earnings and very robust guidance, be it NVDA, TSM, AMD, AVGO, etc...

thembitches326

Looking at the top left corner of finviz is looking like a fucking yikes right now. AVGO in particular! Glad I sold them and TSM about 2 months ago!

codespyder

TSM: *down 0.5%*

Traditional_Honey108

TSM hasn’t tanked, and rightly so. It’s a fucking powerhouse.

wright_on_

I feel like the minute I buy into $TSM China is gonna invade

FinishWarm1746

Up 12pts after hours Along with my TSM calls. Thank you Broadcom. Fuck you Oracle 

PatientBaker7172

Bullish on all datacenters. Genesis project was the pivotal moment for all hands on deck approach. All winners. $ORCL $NVDA $TSM $NBIS $IREN $CRWV $GOOGL $MSFT $META $APLD $AMD $AMZN

-B-H-

Red days are good for buying calls. I’d like to get some more TSM calls specifically.

barelyreadsenglish

However, I believe Tesla will successfully break into the market due to its $0.20-$0.40 operating cost per mile, the cheapest on the market. The cost reduction will be done thanks to the reduced use of LiDAR and radar and the greater weight of AI 4 chips (built by Samsung and TSM) and the smart computers. I wonder if the wrongful deaths lawsuits and insurance cost are taken into account here

Josepth_Blowsepth

was a paper handed bitch and sold for %2800 return on a TSM call

FinishWarm1746

My TSM calls are almost at break even. Holy fuck 😭 I gotta stop buying at all time highs 

Trashpanda7193

TSM 🚀

purpleinme

Dumping my TSM for NVDA was the stupidest thing I’ve ever done

mneymaker

I guess none of you notices TSM the last couple days. Clear cut winner in the AI race

Traditional_Honey108

Planning a family with TSM 💕

LawlessNJ

Depends if you count Netflix as tech. It’s dropping again on news they *won’t* acquired WBD. None of their fundamentals, IPs, and revenue streams will be affected by this. Market punishing them right now for having more cash, healthier margins, and reduced synergy risk. If it drops to $90, I’ll enter. LUNR is at a $2.1B valuation right now. Lanteris adds $850M/yr revenue with backlog. It’s no longer an IM-3 bet but priced like it. I wanted to buy more during selloff but stuff like AVGO and TSM was just more tempting, safer. Disclaimer: don’t own Netflix. Small position in LUNR ~$5k.

RayU_AZ

I think Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta & TSM are under valued with PE ratios under 35.

movienight1988

These insiders have so much stock that getting rid of 12 million is nothing. It’s like us cashing out 100 shares to fund a new Rolex. The competition is slowly catching up but Nvidia is also lead by a relentless CEO that treats everyday as doomsday. Further adding to my confidence is the ultra strong relationship he has with the TSM boss, locking down almost all the capacity.

092Casey

I hope TSM dips more. Thing is a goldmine.

vandammes

China does not have the technology or factories to build the wafers TSM is building for NVIDIA. They had 2 option. I predicted this months ago. 1 they agree with Trump and buy there way into the AI GPU's or they invade Taiwan and takeover TSM, but that would be economical suicide. They chose the first.

FunnyJaded7040

This stock is truly a diamond in the rough. Please have a look at the thematics regarding this industry and the recent deald this company has made (TSM on their arizona plant). Sure this is not as volatile or popular as the trendy stocks, but this is a true company that have very very strong fundamentals. I urge you to have a look at the Q£ report. Very strong numbers.

FinishWarm1746

NVDA and TSM are fucking pumping after hours 😂😂

FinishWarm1746

TSM is about to skyrocket. I mean I guess as NVDA goes up so does TSM 

Fragrant-Sand-5851

Genuinely question, TSM is still barred from making chips for them, how do they make the “advanced chips”?

FinishWarm1746

TSM better break 300 cause I’m fucked if not

shabigdata

Why not TSM

LawlessNJ

The idea that they are a threat is outdated. This TAM isn’t even close to the beginning of saturation. This isn’t going to be zero-sum. Google has been developing this for a decade. What made even less sense was the market selling off TSM during the Google rally. 

Negative_Win_5117

LRCX, TSM, AMAT, KLAC If you know, you know

magneticpasta9

Priced in, TSM already started moving operations to US, basically america said screw Taiwan we aren't protecting you anymore

FinishWarm1746

TSM!!!!!

fraktall

tbh, you only really need to watch three companies: NVDA, TSM and ASML, if they start dropping everything else will just crash with them

Glittering_Water3645

I'm bullish on META, amazon, alphabet, AMD, TSM, nvidia, micron and ASML among others I'm bearish on oracle, nebius, coreweave, tesla, palantir and apple I'm neutral on broadcom and microsoft (mainly because of valuations relative estimated growth). Does it mean I will be correct? Absolutely not. But I invest where I believe the positive cash flows will be going and valuations relative to future earnings make sense.

ButterscotchFeeling9

I ran this word salad through Claude. Core Thesis: The author believes NVDA (and AMD/TSM) are massively undervalued, predicting NVDA should be at $215-225/share (vs current ~$140s) due to next-gen GPU technology being years ahead of supporting hardware. Key Arguments: - Fractal "W" Pattern Theory - Stock movements follow repeating wave patterns at all time scales, with 8-10% swings driven by retail panic and larger moves requiring top 1% holders to act - NVDA is Artificially Suppressed - Big institutional investors are keeping prices low to accumulate shares before "letting it rip to the sky" - Hardware Is Way Ahead of Infrastructure - RTX 5090 GPUs are bottlenecked by motherboards, CPUs, and power delivery that can't keep up with their capabilities (GPU memory: 2176GB/s vs PCIe connection: 53GB/s) - Inevitable Tech Refresh Coming - Entire PC ecosystem needs redesign to utilize existing chip power, creating massive demand for NVDA/AMD/TSMC products - Trifecta" Play - NVDA (design), AMD (competition), and TSMC (manufacturing) form an unbeatable combination positioned for a "jaw-dropping" rally Bottom Line: After 900+ hours of hardware testing/research, the author believes we're on the cusp of a new tech era where these three stocks will lead a "long-term rally" as software finally catches up to already-existing hardware capabilities. Note: This is highly speculative retail investor analysis with unconventional technical theories.

Mountain-Office1177

Everything is detailed in this. [https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vSxe0L7hdD9aZbIVqi3wBIm-M1KwoYEII-7rVYd5521A4cyjQVBBR6PTkiRCPwwVfwTtGNopVMVFfMz/pub](https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vSxe0L7hdD9aZbIVqi3wBIm-M1KwoYEII-7rVYd5521A4cyjQVBBR6PTkiRCPwwVfwTtGNopVMVFfMz/pub) TLDR : Just buy AMD NVDA and TSM until you're out of money\* \*not stock advice.

op_rank

I'm long on TSMC. People don't seem to understand that no matter which AI chip is gaining momentum, be it Nvidia's GPU, or Google's TPU, or Broadcom's ASIC, or anyone else', all these chips are basically all made by TSMC, which is the real winner as long as the AI booms continue. It'd be illogical to have, say GOOG or AVGO, go up but TSM goes down.

boofybutthole

GOOG, TSM and VRT took up sizable positions during the tariff dips back in April/May

Key-Possession-2318

lol good companies dont brag learned it the hard way lol (lost my life savings on TSM earnings last quarter) matter of fact they just presented the absolute crazy numbers like piece of cake

cphpc

Bought AMD, NVDA and TSM all on the same day in January. Guess there was a dip.

FeeIcy156

That is what I was saying, everyone is buying more forward on the others.(they are not as high as they were) Most were 50 to 100 as everyone was buying the AI Hype. And TSM has stayed in the range it always is around mid 20s. They have been growing consistently and a small premium is not bad, but production is maxed. I would expect TSM to start to climb soon. They have a few fabs opening or opened in 2025, and more through 2026 and 2027. And some will be EUV, at least 1 is only DUV. People may be more conservative with forward buying on TSM with the production operating at max capacity, which means no new money until new machines are up and running. All they can produce is 185 per hour from each EUV they have. There has been no reason for the stock to increase since they could not make more chips to sell. But I find it strange that everyone thinks TSM is so important, when AMSL is just as important. The only people that make the machines for them. AMSL also has an employee in each fab to keep the machines running, they are the only ones that can work on them. And there is another company that AMSL needs so they can keep building, Zeiss. Zeiss is a private company that AMSL bought 24.9% of, to keep the supply flowing. Intel new machines (2) and a 3rd coming soon, can produce over 200 per hour. The $350 million they spent on each are probably why their PE is so high. It will correct itself soon. Samsung will probably get their 1st High-NA EUV next and then possibly TSM. AMSL is hoping to be able to build 20 High-NA EUV per year by 2027. They were building 45 EUV per year, over 500 DUV And AMSL is already doing R&D on the Hyper-NA EUV, the next small chip. TLDR 🤣 sorry, I have been reading a lot lately. And all info is only about the Best chips, the chips people will do anything to get.

jamallen85045

TSM would be hurt more than NVDA. TSM is still working on getting FABs setup that can produce 3-nm chips outside of Taiwan.

BNA-mod

I would say all you listed although I think it will be a few days before some of the weird news gets clarified with MSFT. Regardless, the big boys will endure & add NVDA, CSCO & IBM to your list. Other don’t sells… TSM, ASML & AAPL.

Spactaculous

Long SPY + puts on the typical AI stocks (NVDA, MU, CRWV, TSM...). Instead of buying puts you can make more sensible options strategies that will cost you less (with less protection, but can be rolled). Going long market / short AI companies will give you a cleaner hedge. Just shorting AI companies will essentially short the market, so you are exposed to many risks not AI related. Even better, long equal weight S&P500 ETF instead of plain SPY. It will give you better separation of AI from the rest of the market, since many AI names are the biggest companies in the index.

Tim_Apple_938

Ya with TSM nvidia goes to zero. Somehow ppl ignore that risk tho, while being cautious about TSM Annoying

FeeIcy156

Nobody can tell the future, but if you watch TSM, and find a new EUV or High-NA EUV being installed at a new fab, or expansion on an old fab, they will increase production, which SHOULD increase revenue. But it may take a while to recover from the money spent to make it happen. As in construction, real estate, and the $150 million EUV or $350 million High-NA EUV. It is a wait and see. Will people pay more for the forward or wait until the money is flowing. So right now, my guess, it will remains steady for a while longer. Intel is making deals now for their chips. They installed a High-NA EUV last year, now they have 2 working and another being installed. Originally for R&D, but they say they will sell to others now. 30,000 High-NA EUV chips already produced I know they have talked to Nvidia, rumor is Microsoft may have made an agreement, and others. Intel was the 1st to get a High-NA EUV, and they are the only company making them in the US. I believe AMSL is trying to work up to building 20 High-NA EUV machines a year. If you look at one, it takes a lot of shipments just to send the machine to a location, after the build it in their factory, test it, disassemble it, pack and ship it to the location, and finally reassemble it. Work that can only be done by AMSL and into a Clean Room, cleaner than a surgical room. The problem, everyone bought Intel over the last week, raising it 17%. And soon there will be another, better machine the Hyper-NA EUV. It will make them even smaller. It is still in development. And these machines are just the beginning of making a chip, many more steps after the wafer is made

MindfulK9Coach

Visa (V), Caterpillar (CAT), Waste Management (WM), PG, TSM, CSCO, VST, NFLX, and SOFI to name a few.

awetfartruinedmylife

What happened to TSM? Micro invasion of Taiwan for a minute?

Happy-n-Healthy

I don't like all these companies making chips, that's gonna end badly for most. Besides all the chips are made by TSM anyway. Reminds me of everyone chasing the ipod...lol

FeeIcy156

TSM is the risk to Nvidia, without TSM Nvidia is at a standstill, no more building out until they find a new chip manufacturer. Which is the reason they made a big investment in Intel.

ThouOne

Who cares about MSFT? Their copilot is shit. NVDA beat earnings, TSM bear earnings, fuk MSFT.

music_is_gud

VRT and MU are showing some nice volatility contraction/recoil. That being said I'm already up 40% on one and 30% on another so will exit them soon. I got a few SLV leaps in the last few days which I plan to hold for the next few months. SLV has the cleanest setup I've seen in a while. I alsk have a few TSM monthlies to play the semis sector.

Lowspark1013

Thanks for the insight. I agree. Been long AMD and TSM for some years.

Glittering_Water3645

Nvidia have a good estimated EPS growth for next year but that will decline fast in the coming years. AMD is projected to accelerate their growth and surpass nvidia in growth from mid-2026. AMD is cheaper in forward PE and PEG for earnings from 2027 and onwards. TSM is traded higher in terms of PEG because they have a lower current valuation (higher OCF and FCF yield) and also deliver to broadcom and google, which makes it a less volatile investment. If broadcom or google takes market share from nvidia and AMD then TSM still wins.

FeeIcy156

We are talking about TSM, they are building in Arizona, Washington, Japan and Germany now. There are rare earth outside of China. Australia is growing mining also. Your hypothetical situation has little possibility of happening unless taiwan is invaded

FeeIcy156

That would make AMSL more important than TSM, if they do not have machines, TSM is useless.

FeeIcy156

But they do not need to buy another machine until they have another place to put it, or an old one fails. AMSL and TSM have limits to what they can produce in a year. So as long as they do not get more equipment to ramp up production, their stock price VALUE can not go up. Other than forward buying, which will hurt when someone cancels an order for whatever reason. As long as AMSL keeps their production numbers up, the TSM (and others) can continue to build new factories to put the machines in. The bottleneck can only be fixed by getting more machines set up in more locations. I would assume they already work around the clock in the factories.

FeeIcy156

Intel can do without them, but they can not replace them. They may produce a little slower but if TSM was gone, Intel and Samsung will be fine, but everyone else will be scrambling. Because Intel and Samsung could set up to build for themselves and stop selling to others to make up for the speed.

Icy-Butterscotch-206

TSM would pump so hard tho

No_Cow_8702

Whats funny is that if TSMC goes down, ALL semis go down (Heck even most of megacap tech goes down as well) Including Intel that also depends on them. The main reason TSM doesn’t have the other’s valuation is because of margins and capex. They like to maintain their good relationships, tho they can raise prices if they want to.

Lowspark1013

I'm confused where you are getting your PEGs? At least per Yahoo, TSM is at 1.4.... double that of NVDA and near triple of AMD. PEG is like golf - lower is better.