TSM

Busy_Dingo_5744

TSM 445 1 week

ithastogoupfromhere

bought into WMT and TSM

Ok-Nose29

Selling $TSM buying $ROKU $APH

CosmosMasterMan

I moved upstream of the buildout to avoid picking winners in the datacenter race. ASML, AMAT, LITE, TSM, Siemens.

gardeal23

Stocks I’m eyeing longs on, any counter arguments would be great - MCD APP GOOG TSM NOW ASTS

88crypto

TSM up 0.2%. I'm gud

QuatroCisco

None of the above… …NVIDIA is becoming the central bank of the AI infrastructure layer with more and more outside financing and backstops needed because contrary to Jensens belief, lenders don‘t take GPUs as collateral. To much risk involved for me. …AVGO took/takes on loads of debt to do their deals with a lot of the recent deals directly linked to either OpenAI and Anthropic, which makes me uncertain whether they will be able to pay, since they‘ve already commited so much to other especially Hyperscalers. …MU is (in my opinion) near a cyclical peak when it comes to RAM prices, since a lot of their recent revenue growth and margin expansion is directly linked to massive price increases and not volume. Meaning once the capacity that MU, Sk hynix and Samsung are building comes online, revenues might still grow but margins will normalize, leading to lower profits. So once again, too much risk for me. …TSM and also ASML are in my opinion the least risky infrastructure stocks out there, fundamentally speaking, when it comes to their current valuation, wouldn‘t consider them a buy at the moment. …AMZN also too much uncertainty for me right now. They‘ve taken on the most debt, the bond market is skeptical with their last offering only being 1,6x oversubscribed vs. normal investment grade sales at 4x. They are the largest cloud provider with AWS, however Like the other hyperscalers, they don‘t disclose their AI-revenues or their margins. They only use run-rates which is just any month times twelve, so as transparent as a phone screen in my opinion. Also not a fan of management recently. They talk so much about the insatiable demand for their services (cloud, renting chips etc.), take in huge amounts of debt, send FCF into the negative, but then simply wire 35 billion to OpenAI for nothing. That was money contingent on IPO or AGI, OpenAI achieved neither but got the money anyway. If you have real outside demand, you don‘t issue debt to fund your own customers. So like I said, too much uncertainty and shady management, in my opinion.

throwing_atomic235

Worth buying TSM now or should I wait

Miserable_Tiger_5742

Seems your thesis is this current AI rollout, I would go TSM (geo risk) as a general toll booth or Amazon/Microsoft for the application layer.

Substantial-Fun9958

China's whole military purpose is also to only invade Taiwan. Also Taiwan's military is in the dust compared to China's. They havent really innovated, their infrastructure is like shit and most of their economy is only standing thanks to TSM

ArQ7777

Buffet bought TSM at about $74 and sold at $73. He lost money at TSM trades. Now TSM is $420. He would have 450% return.

Ok_Shirt3792

YES FOR PHONES, but do u need state of the art sensors made for 2026 phones in physical ai? =NO, furthermore samsung + omnivions integrated (china) also compete there, and then there is lidar.. tbh i feel this is kinda a flip, there is not moat SO FAR, so maybe sony is a good play but tbh i'm not sure, i'd rather buy TSM / NVDA / HYNIX if i want to play the ai Although sony has many other businesses and the stock could be undervalued.. but i don't think it's the best play for AI.

YourMatt

My newest is Figma. I started working with a new UX designer, and they decided to use AI prototyping instead of Figma. It's been an awful experience. Figma isn't getting replaced any time soon, and I'm going to go as far as say that UX design is going to be the last thing that is replaced by AI in software engineering. I also recently did a full web design in Adobe Illustrator. That was an old workflow I used years back, and I got an itch to try it again. That is woefully inadequate and I'll never try that again. Figma is the only viable tool in this space now, so on that alone, I repositioned my personal non-retirement portfolio with 10% FIG. I funded it by selling off one of my oldest stocks, TSM. It's a crazy move, I know, but I never took any profits and I didn't see much more upside potential there.

yakuzademon893

The whole global economy goes to shit if China invades Taiwan not just TSM

Substantial-Fun9958

You only need ask yourself whether it's US or China that will be hit harder by TSM falling. Also what if TSM doesn't actually fall in the end and ends up becoming used by China in some way? They say they have some kill switch but China could just infiltrate TSM and prevent it from happening. Anyway the initial shock of an invasion would just tank TSM from early investor reactions so it doesnt matter from a bet-wise trading strategy

vertigo88

If they started. Making chips is effectively voodoo magic. It’s difficult, and took the combined efforts of an entire nations engineers to pull off what is an engineering miracle. Trade works because it allows specialization and deep understanding of what is being done, both in NVDA’s chip design and TSM’s production. Neither could do it as well alone. Now let’s say NVDA does the stupid thing and invests in chip production. How much CAPEX and time do they need to become a fraction as good as TSM, and why would I want that as an investor? Hell - reinvest in your own designs, or do stock BB.

vertigo88

If they started. Making chips is effectively voodoo magic. It’s difficult, and took the combined efforts of an entire nations engineers to pull off what is an engineering miracle. Trade works because it allows specialization and deep understanding of what is being done, both in NVDA’s chip design and TSM’s production. Neither could do it as well alone. Now let’s say NVDA does the stupid thing and invests in chip production. How much CAPEX and time do they need to become a fraction as good as TSM, and why would I want that as an investor? Hell - reinvest in your own designs, or do stock BB.

vertigo88

If they started. Making chips is effectively voodoo magic. It’s difficult, and took the combined efforts of an entire nations engineers to pull off what is an engineering miracle. Trade works because it allows specialization and deep understanding of what is being done, both in NVDA’s chip design and TSM’s production. Neither could do it as well alone. Now let’s say NVDA does the stupid thing and invests in chip production. How much CAPEX and time do they need to become a fraction as good as TSM, and why would I want that as an investor? Hell - reinvest in your own designs, or do stock BB.

TranzitBusRouteB

bad day for NVDA calls, after news of Microsoft working with TSM to build more of their own chips

Local-Education-1071

an invasion is more unlikely to happen than you think. China is in mostly good standing with the world right now; why would they ruin their consistent import/export, no sanctions, unlimited money maker for a highly risky and costly amphibious invasion that would likely result in a world war type event? China is smarter than that, they are going to take Taiwan from the inside over the next few decades. TSM will be fine.

Spiritual-Prize-4491

**TSM** revenue surges 45%, SP is limp... WTF is going on ?! so much for efficient markets

IvoryTowerResident

MSFT in talk with TSM to ramp up chip productions

JudgeCheezels

Been collecting shares for the last 4 months. The TSM news has been known for awhile already though.

wenchanger

$TSM monthly sales up 44% monthly - this is good for semis/AI stocks, no?

Broke4Life

Not just them, VOO,, VGT, NVDA, TSM, CBRS all making similar charts

EricFSP

TSM, incredibly well run company and a little dividend on top

No_Platform4832

Keep TSM and NVDA, ditch BABA. BABA is a retail trap. I checked trader Guru reviews to see if their trader Guru stock scanner handles international equities well, but honestly, the macroeconomic data for China is always a black box. Stick to companies with clear earnings visibility.

Careless-Place-170

if you're serious you might want to hedge a bit. MU or TSM are sort of high beta VOO, it's all one trade.

drmantis_toboggan13

I know this is mostly a YOLO sub but I’ve got $50k in cash I need to get into the market. Thinking like $40k/$45k just VOO and then bet on one or two individual stocks. Thinking MU or TSM. Any other thoughts?

AgitatorSupreme

What? Find companies with promising drugs in early trial phases. Hi risk, high reward. But if the drug fails you will lose like 90% of your investment. Dude - pick a different stock. TSM is, IMO, the best long term play out there. You can probably buy it under $410 next week although if we have another bull run i expect it to go to $440+. They are the most important company in the world.

Ok_Shirt3792

Samsung is years behind TSM, TSM is A GROWING MONOPOLY

ap1618

I am about to throw all my money into TSM

Ok-Poetry-4721

TSM is a forever company. If not for the China threat, they would in my opinion be the most valuable company in the world

znightmaree

TSM looking like a nice price to add

smellyeggs

Reminder that the SPACs all popped Feb 2021, but SPY went up until Jan 2022 before popping itself, declining 34%. Big tech declined sooner and harder, with GOOG peaking Nov 2021 and falling \~42%. Fine to gamble up and down, but I sold some investments yesterday (TSM, MSFT)

DirectionPlane6544

Intel is fine. You gotta understand the power of operating leverage. Intel is a company that brings in 55b a year in revenue and only 5b of profit. They don’t need revenue to increase 100% to double their earnings. Fixed cost make up a massive amount of the operating costs. It means something like a 20% revenue jump can increase your profits by 2x. There’s also the fact that intel foundry that has massive potential independent of AI. If you look at TSM who basically is the entire market, they depend on the entire market growing for themselves to grow. They don’t have any competition to steal market share from. But Intel on the other hand can grow faster than the broader market because they can play the game of talking market share away from competitors which is a strategy independent of AI

A55BAG

TSM, Samsung electronics and UMC are an opportunity IMO. Fabs have now a lot of pricing power

davidbigham

TSM is also going down in AH 🤣

predtr___

yes TSM calls

theundiscoveredcolor

TSM calls?

fightsolver

Feels like a bullish week to me - no options buying but just bought ALAB, MU, TSM on margin (didn't learn from Leo)

Alternative-Cat613

Out of curiosity, how does your **ai financial analyst** module filter out noise? When your **ai stock picker** flags something like TSM or COST (from your screenshot), is it reacting to real-time news data or strictly technical breakdowns?

Spac55

$SPY $QQQ $NVDA $TSM $MU $SKHY When BigTech cash flow negative . Banks shutdown AI-debt load, after few blow up like “Situational Awareness story “. $45 Billion overnight Then semi unwinds $2-3 Trillion How long OpenAI & Anthropic keep cash burning $40 Billion a year ?

Spac55

$SMH $MU $SKHY $SNdK $TSM $INtC $AMD $STX How many Trillion AI-margin debt , when total margin debt 1.5 Trillion , last week wiped $45 Billion in a day, Situational Awareness. Memory is cyclical, AI doesn’t mater Ask any AI , why memory is cyclical?

Amplitude_detector

I added some TSM. Not touching memory or INTC

mightyblend

TSM and AMKR. Wild to me that they aren't.

Smooth_Fill888

Semis need to break away from meme stocks like MU and SNDK to have any chance of real recovery. There's no reason a company like TSM should be pumping right now.

jiggolo420

TSM being fluffed all morning and cant get it up

Visible_Ad_2271

It‘s so easy, just buy and hold Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, JP Morgan and TSM

cool-lala

is there anyway China could legally invade Netherlands and get those ASICs the tip in the market was they are close to produicing 3nm wafers and way too far from the 1nm ones they can do 7 and 10 and 15 and 28 pretty well by now would not be surprised for half of TSM workforce has extended families in mainland

PM_ME_UR_BEST_1LINER

Feelings on buying shares or leaps? I have leaps on TSM, GOOG, AMZN. I have shares of MSFT

thefrogmeister23

Thanks for sharing! TSM seems to be discounted because of geopolitical risk, but my sense is any event will tank the whole market, not just TSM…

CivilizedSteve

I agree with that. I did trim and move a bit to the spenders but I'm pretty locked in on the capex spending theme... on the supply side, TSM, ASML, AVGO, memory... Leos's fund thing is a crazy story and there was also a lot of volatility trading. So yah the semi trade is far from being done. Spending is still increasing!!

CivilizedSteve

Ok so still the supplier side. I'm in semis too. TSM, ASML, AVGO, etc. Volatile. Crowded. Was just thinking about what is AI actually good at. There's a lot of magic thinking about AI but it's very good at processing information. That got me thinking about businesses where that could lead to strong upside.

looool_k_libtard

Entirely depends on your risk appetite and time you want to hold. AI infrastructure is in its early stages but extremely volatile. Semis + memory + data center buildouts are all growing thanks to enormous mag 7 capex. They all confirmed it’s going up through 2027 and likely until 2030. But can you handle enormous drawdowns if Trump decides to restart the war? Many are also taking on big time debt to keep up with the demand/scale, so something to keep in mind if demand slows. Long term growth mag 7 (besides Tesla) are always a safe bet. It’s hard to imagine Google, Apple, Microsoft, etc will slow down anytime soon. But they basically move the indices anyway so most people just buy SPY or QQQ. I’m a big fan of TSM personally. I personally don’t like dividends, at least dividend focused stocks, because I am younger and want the companies to reinvest in themselves rather than pay out a dividend.

icydragon_12

Micron is my favorite name at the moment, but it's not for the faint of heart. high vol, high risk. Currently, the stock is pricing in a >70% crash to memory prices. That could happen, and historically has happened. But after I looked into the capex plans of memory makers, the schedule of wafer additions, I bet it doesn't happen for at least another year if not 2-3. Moreover, HBM prices/volume is being locked. My base case is that memory prices fall by 40-50% sometime after 2027 and even then MU is worth 1500-2k. TSM looks attractive to me as well and I recently bought, but obv if ASML increases their prices that will be at least marginally negative to all the companies buying their equipment.

Kooky-Address-4598

2. how exactly? the hyperscalers guided higher capex for 2027 also why would your thesis play out just for the memory stocks and not other semis (TSM/ASML/AMAT/AVGO/etc.) ?

onemanstrong

Thanks. I also held AMZN, MSFT, NFLX, and TSM.

Jerikolol

TSM? AMD? some photonics?

steady_compounder

I would be careful selling a broad index fund to swap into two individual semiconductor names unless this is a small high-conviction satellite bet. ASML and TSM are both great businesses, but that move is still a big jump in concentration and cycle risk. Usually the better question is whether you want core exposure or a deliberate tilt, not whether two stocks can replace the index.

Apprehensive-Mine364

I still am struggling to understand what it means when an agency anouces a price target.... Like TSM seems undervalued but I feel like you would need an army of autists to calculate forward value.

icydragon_12

I'm a professional analyst and just built out models on these for my PA. TSM legitimately seems undervalued to me after this exercise. I modelled out their their production and costs by node. I put in fairly conservative assumptions, and expect about 40% upside in one year. ASML appears to be trading almost exactly at fair value at the moment. I'd expect them to move sideways unless they raise their prices. Which... honestly I don't understand why they don't do this. They're a damn monopoly.

CivilizedSteve

Nice. TSM and ASML IMO are two of the more durable supply AI-related buildout stocks. I own them both.

Apprehensive-Mine364

Only way I'm selling TSM is if it goes to 480

Apprehensive-Mine364

I purchased 1 share of UGA as a hedge against the cost of gas going up. I lost way to much on ASYD and decided fuck this I'm not waiting on earnings....and dropped out for a 22% loss. Fuck my life. Still need TSM to go up to 428 either by 4pm or in the aftermarket hours.

Apprehensive-Mine364

Thank god. My largest position is in TSM and I'm unsure how the bubble will affect them. My other positions are finance stocks, steel manufacturing, and then index funds. I wonder if I should sell TSM break even at 425 and hold it in cash until the crash or some major other event that let's me find a sweet low entry point below average.

Apprehensive-Mine364

Semi is trading high preopen. TSM, ASYS etc all up

KnownButton8327

I disagree because even if we believe your sentiment that it’s hard to make AI profitable for a lot of smaller companies, there is no stopping the AI arms race between China and the USA. It’s geopolitical now and the genie can’t be put back in the bottle. Not to mention other countries who are in line for sovereign AI build outs. So I guess it depends what end you’re betting on, but the core of NVDA, TSM, ASML, American energy companies, data center cooling, and high speed networking, etc is going to make bank by real TAM expansion

PooPooPointBoiz

Kind of. I have just held a position and it takes months and months to recover. I got fucked on META in Oct of last year and held for months to see break even. I got fucked on MSFT this year, got fucked on AMZN this year, got fucked on TSM this year. And I always just held and held until it recovered. Ironically, in a lot of instances cutting my losses would have saved me a shit ton of heart ache.

PooPooPointBoiz

I don't know. Maybe. But after TSM goes up 5%, how the fuck was I supposed to know it would go up another 3%, then anoither 2% after hours?

PooPooPointBoiz

Dude fuck stupid ass TSM. Of course it shits the bed when I hold, then once I sell for a loss, it fucking rockets. Shit is like fucking clockwork dude. Literally what the actual fuck.

Apprehensive-Mine364

Nah, friday. Today TSM rallied thanks to announcement regarding packaging development and the amazon google earnings. Now I'm only down 3% from my entry point. I need it to go green so I can exit before the AI bubble pops.

PooPooPointBoiz

I don't fucking get it. How the fuck can META miss earnings and drop like 10-ish % with a weak out look. And AAPL, the most valuable company in the world, can grow some insane numbers, for such a mature company, beat earnings expectations, and drop 8-9% at the lowest? That's some grade A bullshit. And what's more bullshit is that I got fucked on both of them. Totally missed out on fucking AMZN and MSFT. Just got fucked on AAPL and META. And TSM and GOOGL for their earnings, for that matter.

PooPooPointBoiz

Fuck my goddamn life dude. Got smoked on META calls, got smoked on AAPL calls. How in the fuck am I 0 for 2, when MSFT and AMZN are ripping to the fucking heavens???? When I played MSFT And AMZN the last 2 earnings, I GOT FUCKED. Oh yeah, and I got fucked on TSM earnings a few weeks ago, and GOOGL earnings last week. How in the actual fuck does this happen, that everything that I touch dies? Then there are half brain retards out there full porting into MU or SNDK calls yesterday and waking up to a fucking million dollars today. What the actual fuck dude.

slowpoke2018

Send it the public financials for stocks I'm considering as an .xls- I have a pro sub - and it comes back with its analysis. It's actually been amazing prediction-wise for TSM and INTC...least until this week...though I'm not sure anyone saw that coming

Vlisa

ADRs always trade at a premium look at TSM

xxxMarilee

I've been selling when I break even. That's like a gain to me. How pathetic is that. After multi-day losses, one just needs time to relax and regroup. That's said, I only broke even on Avgo today. Waiting to see if TSM will do it for me.

Spac55

Situational Awareness, sells entire book. As semi crash possible push to margin call deleverage, as margin requirements skyrocketed. Another Archegos like crash for semi collapse last 3 week. Funds soon risk manage $STX $SNDK $WDC $AMD $INTC $AMD $AMAT $LRCX $TSM & sell semi

Apprehensive-Mine364

TSM says they are developing a packaging thingy magig to compete with intel

onelifestand101

Really? Even TSM? It’s down like 25% from ATH while releasing its best quarter results of all time. To me, that’s a screaming buy at sub 400.

thethor1231

Need TSM and MU to recover a bit now

Helpful_9532

TSM and Samsung around 2T market cap. INTC at 600-800b market cap for the only US advance semi foundry seems reasonable to me. I'm full port aswell

PooPooPointBoiz

Yeah, I'm "young" I guess in the sense that I'm not 60. But I'm somewhat taking risky plays to build up my fucking nest egg because I started so late. I was all in on META and TSM today and got absolutely fucked. I did go to the gym tonight though. But I don't have friends. Money is pretty fuckin deep though. Money gives you options in life.

PooPooPointBoiz

Sigh dude. Got fucked on TSM. Got fucked on META. MSFT which I got fucked on over all of June, fucking rockets, and of course I'm not in it. Fuck my life dude. I'm 20k in the hole as of right now, probably going to be further down tomorrow and into next week. My life is fucking shit dude.

New_Association9786

AMD, SCHD, VOO, TSM. That order of priority

Apprehensive-Mine364

I'm not....I don't even have options enabled. But TSM and ASYS consist of a major chunck of my portfolio and am getting raped by the market.

Apprehensive-Mine364

Still waiting for TSM for bounch back.

IBUYVOTES

Tomorrow? Going bargain hunting in semiconductors. There is value there if you look for it. AVGO is hanging out at 23x NTM, NVDA is 19x, ASML is \~28x, TSM is \~17x. Very attractive entry for some very strong moats.

PooPooPointBoiz

/b/ros. I feel kind of sick. I'm down over 20k on TSM/TSMX and META/METU. I'm not rich and while this isn't rent money, it's not money I can just light on fire and feel nothing about. Fuck my life dude. I supported MSFT through the last 2 earnings and got fucked. The one time I didn't, is the one where it fucking rockets. Fuck my life dude....

PooPooPointBoiz

Because maybe Zuck's retarded ass selling compute power would change something. Idk. I fucking knew that MSFT would fuck me if I bought in. But I guess it's just whatever I buy, I get fucked on. TSM and META this time around.

PooPooPointBoiz

Why the fuck did TSM almost recover today, then absolutely shit the fucking bed. What the actual fuck.

PooPooPointBoiz

What the actual fuck dude. I got fucked on TSM, I got fucked on META. MSFT fucking rockets, but of course it does, I didn't buy in this time. jesus christ fuck my life dude.

PooPooPointBoiz

Dude I'm fucking pissed. I got fucked by MSFT last earnings report. So I sat this one out and got into META instead this time. MSFT fucking rips 8% and META fucking SHITS THE FUCKING BED 10%. What the actual fuck dude. And I'm getting fucked on my TSM/TSMX position because of a fucking earth quake????? What the fuck kind of time line is this.

Apprehensive-Mine364

What you on about. My entire tech holdings are a blood bath on my portfolio. TSM I got in around the 420's Parked a few hundred in ASYS just to get bent over from the semi sell off.

JohnsHopkinsSimp

Calls on TSM since Korea keeps breaking circuits

Constant-Candle-4672

I wish I bought TSM stocks this month instead of last month

BobbyDigitali

TSM

fledgling66

No, I’m perfectly happy being overweight in CME, Berkshire, ADP, Eli Lilly, and RSP. Other than that it’s just Google and TSM, both of which I bought forever ago.

fe2sio4

My neighbor works for a pretty big fund and she told me they went all in on SK Hynix and TSM at the top and they are trailing SPX by -20% ytd and their biggest client withdrew like 8b or something

avsfan0829

TSMC FOLLOWING JAPAN EARTHQUAKE: WE ARE INSPECTING EQUIPMENT AT KUMAMOTO FAB, AND CONDUCTING RECOVERY. WE EXPECTS INSPECTIONS AND CALIBRATIONS TO TAKE SOME TIME. $TSM ... God lost money on semis too