TSM

steve2166

TSM should move to another country for taiwan's sake

looool_k_libtard

What is even the point of holding Google or TSM now. Oh wow it went up 11% this year I made $250. Ooouuhhh. GO ALL IN MARGIN BIOTECH COMPANIES.

Arrowhead_Pride15

"most likely"? Also, you believe they will build a fabrication plant to manufacturer their own, in house designed chips? They better be hiring folks from TSM too then....

hsuan23

One of buffet’s worst trades was selling 5% of TSM for $80 a share when half his portfolio was Apple in 2022 yet Apple would be toast without TSM

HazelKittenDude

bit of an exaggeration but i get your point. hormuz only controls 20% of the world's oil, nowhere near the 60% control that TSM controls.

phdlevelbaked

Remeber that NVIDIA still has $118.5 billion in stock buybacks set aside. Here''s what I will do - wait for fund manager's to trim those positions to raise cash (i.e. NVIDIA drops 10% or so) and then go in get the stock at a discount. Nvidia executes buybacks, EPS goes up, and anthropic and X are now even better funded to buy more NVIDIA (and other AI hardware, maybe TSM is a play too, and Cerebras).

ladsam

TSM is a great stock to own

srfdriver99

> You can have a long, grinding decade of subpar returns vs peers while the rest of the semi stack compounds faster Sure, though I'd classify that as "opportunity cost" rather than "risk". Risk is measured vs a baseline, and the standard baseline is the risk-free rate, not the competition in one of the highest volatility sectors on the market. As for INTC vs TSMC, TSMC has its own complications, there's always the whole Chinese aggression angle. And the two companies aren't exactly equivalent. One's a pure fab shop and the other's a chip designer. To me it's actually ARM that is the more "existential" danger compared to Intel, because both AMD and Intel will be trading blows as long as x86 is the way things go. And Intel's diversifying into GPUs with Arc and that gives them a plan B in future if x86 does bite the bullet. TSM, on the other hand, as long as they're a cutting edge fab there will be customers. But they don't have chip designs of their own, they're purely a fab. It's the same thing - if they fall behind on fab tech, they will be able to continue making lower tiers of cheaper stuff for quite a while. The thing with tech is that over a 10 year span any leader can become a lagger and vice versa. Remember AMD Bulldozer? Back in 2015 not a lot of people were predicting AMD to smoke Intel going forward. It could easily reverse in one architectural upgrade or startup purchase.

SupplySideAI

TSMC's moat is worth understanding at a deeper level before comparing it to other picks. It's not just node leadership — it's CoWoS advanced packaging. Virtually every major AI accelerator (Nvidia Blackwell, AMD Instinct, Google TPUs) has to route through TSMC's packaging capacity, not just their fabs. That's a separate bottleneck from chip manufacturing and it's one competitors can't replicate quickly. That structural lock-in is what makes TSM a different category of bet than a typical foundry play.

cbusoh66

The Iran war has been irrelevant for 2 months, nothing is going to change that now with or without a deal. Things to keep an eye on: Jensen and Lisa are in Taipei for Computex and to pay their respects to TSM June 2-5. FOMC June 16-17 (PCE Thursday May 28).

Individual_Section_6

TSM is the only and most obvious answer.

ThiccWubz

Completely different companies. Intel is a chip maker thats getting their foundry business up and running to compete with TSM. dell assembles and sells racks at very very low margins. Both good companies but intc is the better play by far

rackemronnie7

Past performance bias is real, but TSM's execution and moat still justify holding. Just don't anchor on 2017 prices.

u_spawnTrapd

TSM and AVGO feel like the easiest cases to hold long term to me because they’re already deeply tied into the actual AI infrastructure stack, not just the narrative around it. They’re not cheap anymore either, but at least there’s a real business underneath the hype. PLTR is the one I go back and forth on. Great positioning, sticky customers, tons of momentum, but the valuation assumes they execute almost perfectly for years. Could still work, just feels less forgiving at these levels. QBTS and IONQ are basically venture bets in public markets. Nothing wrong with taking a small position if you believe in quantum long term, but I’d personally size them like lottery tickets, not core holdings. The tech is interesting, but commercial timelines still feel super uncertain to me. I think the next Nvidia framing is what gets people into trouble honestly. Nvidia had insane timing plus near monopoly-level positioning. That combination is rare.

ComprehensiveSwan698

TSM and AVGO are the two best choices. Everything else I will drop.

Far_Version9387

You should retitle this to: “What stocks are you buying when WW3 starts?” Because if China invades Taiwan, WW3 has a 150% chance of starting. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would affect the whole world and every single major market. Every stock except recession-defense stocks would be down. An invasion of Taiwan is a black swan event, not something that will only affect TSM and semiconductors stocks. It will have giant implications on every part of life.

visualfluxx

"TSM and AVGO feel way more like actual businesses" FEEL LIKE ACTUAL BUISNESSES??? they are the best of the best - you should maybe spend your time at a casino in Vegas

LuciusQ2020

None of quantum computing companies is profitable. I wouldn’t call them scams but they aren’t far from it. PLTR, AVGO, and TSM are absolutely solid companies making insane profits; however, they are all priced sky high at the moment. They are worth watching until the next panic but I personally wouldn’t buy them right now - of course, I own all three.

zendaddy76

Just hold for longer, set a trailing stop, maybe 20%, if you’re worried about losing money. Or sell 1/2 at ATH and keep the rest. I’ve successfully used this strategy with some big wins (MSFT since 98, AAPL since 2012, NVDA since 2020, currently holding AVGO AMD TSM MRVL GOOG - all with trailing stops that haven’t triggered, still riding them on the way up). Also I bought META when PE was low, around 200 a share, these aren’t dogshit stocks if you hold for longer and have conviction. Tha said, 90% of my money is VT and chill, 10% play money is for fun.

Level_Agent_2955

bro solid list you got here. a mix of "build the pickaxe" plays and pure speculation. here is my honest breakdown after tracking these. Quantum (IONQ & QBTS) — watchlist only for now. I know the growth numbers look insane like IONQ grew revenue 755% to $65M but they are still burning $330M a year. QBTS has weak sales too only $2.9M. The whole sector lives on government grants right now like the $2B quantum fund but these companies will be burning cash for years. Too risky to bet big on. Keep them on a watchlist. Palantir (PLTR) — solid but expensive. The business is growing fast 71% guidance for 2026 and earnings keep beating estimates. But the price is just too high. It trades at a P/E near 150 while NVDA trades at 41 despite similar growth rates. People call it the next Nvidia but the valuation leaves almost no room for error. A pullback would hurt. Broadcom (AVGO) — the real AI winner. This is the pick for me. AI revenue is exploding up 106% to $8.4B in Q1 alone with next quarter projected at $10.7B. Total revenue forecast at $22B for Q2 thats 47% annual growth. Citi called it the top semi pick for 2026 with a $500 target. Strong profitable business not just hype. TSMC (TSM) — the foundation of AI. TSMC builds everything for Nvidia Broadcom AMD. AI demand is "extremely robust". Shares are up 33% YTD. The only risk is margin pressure from overseas fab expansion and Taiwan geopolitics. A solid long term hold but maybe not the fastest grower. The Next Nvidia? Broadcom is the best positioned. It supplies all the hyperscalers unlike Nvidia which is more concentrated. Palantir valuation makes it hard to see Nvidia-like returns from here. I do my research with Runable just pulling financials and tracking analyst targets for all my picks. My take: Buy Broadcom. Hold TSMC. Watchlist Palantir. Skip quantum for now till they prove they can make money not just burn it.

bartturner

Think the biggest issue is that fabrication for the CPUs takes from fabrication of GPUs. In the end it all comes down to TSM.

Aggressive_Deer_7072

This sounds nice in theory, but people chase "next Nvidia" way harder than they ask "how much hype is already priced in?" Not gonna lie, I'd personally put QBTS and IonQ in watchlist territory for now. TSM and AVGO feel way more like actual businesses, while quantum still feels early enough that you're kinda betting on a future story more than fundamentals.

MegaDuck71

Pick a philosophy and stick to it. For years. Mine is sell shovels in a gold rush. I don’t try to find the gold. I find the companies that sell the equipment. Unfortunately, my hedge to my shovel blew up and I’m way over ledgered on Nvidia and AMD. I made a play on TSM two years ago and that is doing well too. I literally didn’t look at my stock account since before the war with Iran. Recently looked at it and was half part WTF and happy.

IDrinkSulfuricAcid

I remember when Buffett sold TSM when it was like $80 a share. 

MaterialGuy007

3 companies going public for same reason and only 1 will top Anthropic.  Everyone w any common sense will hold their investment dollars - which means capex for AMD, NVDA, MU, CRWV, SNDK all unstable - winners GOOG, AMZN - TSM needs to move to US asap any investment now (AMD) huge risk - China appears empowered (record leaders visiting in few months) 

FewFroyo9834

if true, wouldn't TSM be dropping like a rock from insiders who know to sell? I'm a newbie so I really don't know

Dirtymike_nd_theboyz

LLY bull here - Retatrutide is going to un-fuck america's fat gaping obese ass. You know how some people say "theyll never cure cancer because there is too much money in treating it"? Obesity as at that crossroad now, with retatrutide's pending approval. I believe obesity will basically be a thing of the past, atleast in 1st world countries, in the next 7 to 10 years... Some highlights from the clinical trials... 28% bodyweight loss after 68 weeks. Reversing fatty liver and a litany of metabolic dysfunctions associated with it. Insulin resistance dissapearing. Curing knee osteoathritis. Increasing cartilege thickness by an avg of 17%. The glucagon receptor is the next frontier you are looking for if you want to invest in glp-1's, it has been overlooked and misunderstood by the scientific community for the last 80 years since its discovery. I am long LLY until reta gets approved (it will). I am even contemplating injecting it into myself, to lose weight and help heal a life ruining herniated disc spinal injury i sustained 45 days ago. I have two 24mg vials, the 27 guage insulin syringes, the bacteriostatic water all ready to go. Just hoping my back gets to a point where I can lift weights again before moving forward, so I can avoid any muscle wasting. Have spend inordinate amounts of time researching it, the negative side effects/risks are the same, if not less prevalent, than all the other glp1's currently on the market. Also, LLY is positioned to be a major trailblazer in the realm of drug discovery via machine learning & AI. They happened to become wall street's golden boy, and got a huge flood of capital right around the same time where the players with the most capital win. Say what you will about AI, if there is one space this technology revolutionizes, its pharmaceuticals. The story of how Eli Lilly discovered vancomycin in the 50s, one of the most powerful antiobiotics ever manufactured, is a great example of WHY AI will transform the space. Buncha dudes in a lab testing 5000 cultures of bacteria from dirt samples around the world, against 50,000 strains of bacteria, one by one, until a particular sample of dirt from a rainforest in borneo happened to contain the special sauce. LLY may not be the one to make the next discovery, i am not typically a bio-pharma investor, but I believe they will likely be the financial engine behind the next discover indirectly. They are the genius bio pharma investors so I just use them and only them to get exposure to the space while the rest of my port is in TSM, SATS, and MSTR 🤪

metallhd

I bought TSM at the beginning of April and no lie it has gone up every. single. day. since

random-user-15373

Hi guys, I want some help in choosing good ETFs/stocks for investment. I was considering VOO and QQQM, but they are not that great. It's kind of safe I guess, but return is pretty small. I think AI oriented ETF is going to perform better for the next couple of years. What do you think about CHAT? Is it good enough to invest ~40% of my portfolio? Probably I am still going to invest around 40% on VOO and QQQM (20% each) and remaining 20% in Nvidia, TSM, Google, Apple, etc. What do you think, how shall I split my money? What's best portfolio in your opinion? Any suggestions will be much appreciated!

random-user-15373

Hi guys, I want some help in choosing good ETFs/stocks for investment. I was considering VOO and QQQM, but they are not that great. It's kind of safe I guess, but return is pretty small. I think AI oriented ETF is going to perform better for the next couple of years. What do you think about CHAT? Is it good enough to invest ~40% of my portfolio? Probably I am still going to invest around 40% on VOO and QQQM (20% each) and remaining 20% in Nvidia, TSM, Google, Apple, etc. What do you think, how shall I split my money? What's best portfolio in your opinion? Any suggestions will be much appreciated!

unumss

From what I’ve read MC’s have tight margins so not a great buy if you’re looking for gains, especially if you’re new. Personally, ARM / TSM / NVDA / AMD have been real good to me.

Trashpanda7193

!banbet TSM 418 7d

ValuableBrilliant483

TSM needs to shoot up the needle

Focux

It means TSM will beat strongly come earnings too

Worried_Quarter469

| # | Company | Market Cap | Revenue (most recent) | |---|---------|------------|------------------------| | 1 | NVIDIA (NVDA) | ~$5.4T | $215.9B (FY26, Jan 2026) | | 2 | Alphabet (GOOGL) | ~$4.9T | $402.8B (2025) | | 3 | Apple (AAPL) | ~$4.4T | $416.2B FY25 (~$436B TTM) | | 4 | Microsoft (MSFT) | ~$3.0T | $281.7B FY25 (~$294B TTM) | | 5 | Amazon (AMZN) | ~$2.9T | $716.9B (2025); $742.8B TTM | | 6 | TSMC (TSM) | ~$2.1T | $122.4B (2025) | | 7 | Broadcom (AVGO) | ~$2.0T | $63.9B FY25; $68.3B TTM | | 8 | Saudi Aramco (2222) | ~$1.80T | $448.6B TTM | | 9 | **SpaceX (proposed IPO)** | **~$1.75T** | **~$15B (2025); $22–24B est. 2026** | | 10 | Tesla (TSLA) | ~$1.7T | $97.9B TTM | | 11 | Meta (META) | ~$1.6T | $201.0B (2025) | | 12 | Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) | ~$1.0T | $395.1B TTM | | 13 | Walmart (WMT) | ~$1.0T | $713.2B (FY26) |

Tim_Apple_938

The market is acting like Nvidia has perfect pricing power (ability to markup chips at 10x) AND that Anthropic and OpenAIs models have pricing power None of these are true tho. GOOG is devoted to making fast and cheap AND frontier models, that are performant enough to run search on. This will eventually just force a model that is so good and so cheap that who would pay 10x for Anthropic when it’s an option (Not to mention GOOG will obviously also have the most advanced large model as well. They have all the compute.) Past that, once it’s clear that TPU and not GPU was behind the best selling model, nvidias pricing power gone too. Note: this still holds even if Anthropic ends up best big model, as Anthropic is on TPU too. The only scenario where this thesis falls apart is if OpenAI has a model so advanced that no one can catch up, and companies are willing to pay endless for it over competitors. This is like 00.1% probability IMO. POSITIONS: LONG GOOG/TSM, SHORT NVDA MSFT ORCL (anyone in the OpenAI ecosystem)

United-Hearing-8286

TSM calls looking fine unless MMs just waiting for liquidity tmrw

joe4942

One reason why it's so difficult to outperform the indices is the difficulty in picking the right winners even when the theme is the right one. Since Nov 2025: * AVGO: +4% * TSM: +37% * NVDA: +24% * AMD: +105% * INTC +193%

DrVonSpreckle

Thats exactly why the spreadsheet cant become a shrine. It has to mark business power, not just EPS growth. AMD can keep growing the numbers while the seat gets less comfortable if Intel stops bleeding & TSM keeps holding the foundry choke point. the trap is treating past execution like a permanent moat. Reprice the next five years, not the last three. if the edge narrowed, the multiple has to answer for that.

hollow_organizer

which is why the AMD case is actually trickier than TSM because AMD's competitive moat in CPUs got way thinner once Intel started actually executing again, so you can have solid earnings growth and still be buying into a worse competitive position than you had three years ago even if the absolute numbers look fine on a spreadsheet.

DrVonSpreckle

Thats the real work. A five year low isnt automatically value & a high multiple isnt automatically poison. The spreadsheet has to answer one ugly question. Where does the next dollar have the best forward claim on earnings, cash flow & patience. If TSM still earns the seat, it stays. If the cheaper name only looks cheap because the business power got worse, thats not redeployment. Thats buying a lower price tag with worse machinery under it.

hollow_organizer

and that's where it gets uncomfortable because you actually have to do the math on whether TSM at these valuations still justifies new capital when you could dump it into something trading at five year lows that might have the same upside over five years, which means sitting down with a spreadsheet instead of just feeling good about being right early.

DrVonSpreckle

Thats the ol trap. Cost basis belongs in the tax folder. Not in the decision. The market doesnt care that you were early. It only asks whether the next dollar still deserves to sit there today. Sunk cost dressed up as a win is dangerous because it feels smarter than fear. It lets you keep holding for the wrong reason while pretending discipline is conviction. If AMD or TSM still earn the seat then fine. Keep them sized. If they dont then the old gain is just a souvenir. The money was made back then. The risk is alive right now.

DrVonSpreckle

Thats the real problem bad names are easy to sell. Good names make you argue with yourself. AMD & TSM still have real reasons to own them, so the old gain cant be the reason to bail. New money needs todays case. Existing money needs todays risk check. If the business still earns the seat, keep it sized like an investment. If the position only stays because the cost basis feels pretty, thats not discipline. Thats nostalgia wearing a profit badge.

hollow_organizer

The hardest part is that AMD and TSM actually still have solid reasons to own them today, so you can't just use the gains as an excuse to bail and feel smart about it.

Artic_funky

MSFT Microsoft TSM Taiwan Semiconductor META AMZN V Visa BSX Boston Cientific GOOG MELI Mercadolibre

Few-Bell-5010

Interestingly, it's exactly the same conversation that I have been having with myself over the last few weeks. I made a good investment in SMH 02/2024 and have held it all the while making multiple semi buys. It's not an easy compare with the rise of the semi so relatively new but one thing that stands out is the volatility over 250 days of the ETF averages mid 30 percentile while the stocks are twice that with NVDA and TSM being the best performers at about 5 & 10 percentage points higher. So the heartache factor is less with the ETF. The performance is mixed but again, the age of the real growth hampers the analysis. In the end, for today, I am going to satisfy myself that I have done my DD and the result it that I am selling the 1/2 of my positions that underperforming SMH and put the proceeds in SMH. I don't know that this is helpful to the general conversation, but I can say the conversation focused my attention sufficiently to work thru several spreadsheets and analysis of actual performance; whether past performance leads to future results remains to be seen. IMHO, not one company has a golden egg, and it comes down to how their performance is evaluated by the market. The ETF is a nice way to pick up broad exposure and after all, I'm not as smart as those managing these funds.

MaxEhrlich

Got bored and bought some MU, BE, TSM, SOXX, and NVDA. This just feels like some regular bullshit that’ll bounce by eow

AnnaSmiled2

Honestly I am newbie. I wish I could understand how to short because SNDK is dumping. TSM is dumping

Indra_Sx

My beloved $TSM 😞

Indra_Sx

I dca $TSM in the 400s. You’ll be Aii

DisastrousStrike9672

Probably you need to ask yourself how risky do you want to go. Split the 10k into defensive, balanced and ventures. Mix between these buckets should be based on your risk appetite. Defensive should be the infrastructure layer (ie NVDA/TSM etc). Balanced would be cloud layer (ie GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, ORCL). Ventures would be companies that you think will be successful in deploying AI in the coming years (eg software companies that you think is great but beaten down, PLTR, cybersecurity, etc) If in doubt, buying the S&P 500 index or Nasdaq index would also work cos the biggest portion of it would relate to AI anyway. This is the no thinking required sleep easy at night approach.

stevebugs

TSM was my first stock pick too. Bought it in the same week when buffet sold when it was $90. Still holding

DoubleFamous5751

Bought TSM in the 130’s in 2023, thought I was smart selling at 170. I feel this

lukeya21

TSM was one of my first stocks when I got into trading. Sold it at 42$ a share for what I thought was big profit. I regret that now.

arbalest11

This is what intel did before falling behind and couldn't catch up because of all the patent advantage TSM built up over the years. + they had Apple and other large tech companies fronting the CAPEX for the FAB build out's. That whole landscapes going to change once 1.4NM hits, and they are fighting the next gen chip after, as NA-EUV will have absolutely maxed out on what it can do and can't advance any further... and here comes the same scenario INTC was in, TSM is now years behind in knowledge with high na-evu lithography machines, and INTC has now piled up a 3 year advantage with patents. TSM won't fail as a company, but INTC sure as hell are being given a great chance to catch up here and potentially over take as the lead chip builder.

Todayjunyer

The quantum companies currently do not turn a profit. You have to be ok with being venture capital if you want to go this route. Very different than buying another share of Google nvda amd TSM or meta, all of which turn insane profits and grow profits quarterly.

drew-gen-x

I am up over 11% on $XVUS tax lots I bought the last week of March. It's much easier for me to sleep knowing that World ex US indices aren't as overweight the AI circle jerk names as $VTI or $SPY are. TSM, Samsung, ASML, and SK Hynix market cap concentration is 7.9% of $VXUS. Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, both Googles, Broadcom, Meta, and Tesla make up 37% of the market cap of the $SPY. When I mention we are in a dot com 2.0 aka AI cap ex circle jerk bubble everyone points out how profitable Big Tech is today vs dot com ignoring the overconcentration of market cap of a handful of stocks today in $SPY just like dot com.

JayFost5

Strong lineup overall, but I’d personally focus less on trying to find the next big thing and more on owning the companies most likely to dominate their industries for the next decade. For me, the core would probably be NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, and TSM basically the backbone of AI/cloud infrastructure. Then I’d add a couple higher-upside names like PLTR or AMD, plus one speculative play for asymmetrical returns. I think the biggest advantage with an 8-stock portfolio is concentration, but the challenge is surviving the volatility without panic selling. A lot of people underestimate how hard it is to hold through 30–40% drawdowns even in great companies.

iiGoodVibesii

As someone who has all his shares in $TSM since last Sept (I thought I bought the top, HA) Everyday I read "Semi's getting KILLED!!!" --- Then I check my portfolio and TSM is down 0.5%. Then proceeds to keep breaking ATH's with ease.

perspiresss

TSM

Ordinary_Coyote7837

GOOGL, MU, LEU, TSM, NVDA, HSBC, XOM, and WMT are the top eight leading growth in my account each year for the past two years. I have other stocks and a few ETFs. If you count ETFs, SMH is number 4 on the list and SPMO is number 8 on the list.

moreno1304

I personally have AMD, TSM, ASML, AMD, Nvidia, GOOGL and amazon. Just go big on chips/data centres the coming 15-20 years.

Trashpanda7193

Gonna sell TSM after Nvidia earnings. This whole Taiwan shit with trump being a megalomaniac is too risky

mediocregamer18

TSM , GOOGL , MXL , AMAT , JNJ , LMT , MU , MTZ. 100% what I would use but we all have different research and opinions.

Surf__Caster

Bitcoin etf Etherium etf Alphabet Nvidia Apple Amazon TSM Costco -Etherium and Bitcoin are listed because you mentioned taking some calculated risks with huge upside, those two certainly offer huge upside in 5-10 year window. Through in Costco bc you mentioned being diversified so couldn’t go all tech. For non tech, also like Walmart, Eli Lilly, JPM, and Waste Management.

MaterialGuy007

Xi meeting Putin on May 19 - 4 days after Trump left????  He’s serious abt Taiwan - and TSM went down less than 1%. Anyone think it will hit Jan low?

Alert-Pipe-3005

TSM bout to go to 0 after 🥭 stopped caring about Taiwan

Jolly-Seat4325

TSM will fast become a monster play

cd80808080

Google, AVGO, TSM, AMZN, NVIDIA, VRT, ASML, IBIT.

Marcg611

I agree with this.. I'm 43 and already feel like I have too much in my 401k and will easily have ~2.5M by 60 if I stop contributing, so I have refocused efforts by only getting the 401k match and first priority is Roth IRA max and then HSA max but free money goes to taxable account which is more near term growth of my money 3-10 years. Need to have your core in S&P like VOO or VTI and then allocate a smaller % to buy a few tech stocks that are going to outpace for years to come (NVDA, AMD, GOOG, TSLA, AMZN, TSM), also add some crypto like at least some IBIT.

CapCityPhotos

What do you mean you don't know what to do? Buy more. If you don't think AMD, TSM are good buys anymore, then buy something else. If you feel like your emotions are getting in the way, then automate the process with weekly deposits and auto-buys. Then go back to living your life.

elgrandorado

I just read through some of the 10F filings. I ended up selling out of my ASML stake in two tranches in Q1, while Dev Kantesaria cut his V stake in half to move it all to ASML. At these valuations I wonder what he saw to increase that stake? I love the firm and think it's one of the key bottlenecks in the semi trade. China still hasn't even figured out how to mass produce an EUV machine let alone have it production ready, so there's no competition there. Problem is that TSM can basically hold off buying bleeding edge High NA at will. Until Intel or Samsung really catch up to them, TSM remain the top dog in logic. Memory demand has absolutely exploded, but how many new fabs will the big three open up before the next bust cycle? I feel a lot of the upside in ASML is priced in, and it'll be hard to make outsized earnings for a bit. Maybe I'm wrong, but it was hard not to take profit when valuations currently indicate that ASML would need to hit the top of their 2030 revenue guide (or higher) per their investor day to come close to their current price. For context I sold a large tranche at $1,050, and the second tranche at $1,460. Most of my buys were at ~$600.

BuzLightbeerOfBarCmd

What makes TSM more like BABA than a US stock?

Portfoliana

i'd separate price anchoring from allocation. if you still want AMD/TSM exposure, DCA a fixed slice into VTI plus the names you actually understand, but don't go hunting small caps just because they haven't pumped yet.

LOVER44OFLGBTLOVE194

You’re anchoring too hard to your old buy price. The market doesn’t care that you bought AMD at $20 or TSM at a quarter of today’s price what matters is whether you think the business will outperform from *today’s* valuation onward. A lot of people make the mistake of refusing to add to winners because “it already went up too much,” then they end up rotating into worse companies just because they look cheaper. Expensive stocks can stay expensive for years if earnings keep compounding. You also don’t need to go all-in at current prices. If you still believe in the long-term thesis, just keep DCA’ing gradually and accept that future returns probably won’t be as insane as the post-2020 run. That’s normal. Personally I’d avoid forcing money into random small caps just because mega caps feel psychologically expensive. “Looks cheaper” and “is undervalued” are very different things.

chapelier1923

I have exactly this problem. I have AMAT LRCX TSM NVIDIA KLA on ASML AMBIQ AMD . They are all up 100-300% and have made a considerable difference to the growth of my conservative portfolio in the last couple of years but I never added to them and can’t bring myself to now…. The only one I did add to was GOOG . If I’d done the same with the others I’d be laughing

DrVonSpreckle

The old cost basis is messing with your head. The market doesnt care where you first bought AMD or TSM. New money needs a new reason at today’s price. If you cant explain why the next dollar still belongs there at this valuation, it goes into VTI until the answer is cleaner. Corrections help only if the business read is still intact, not because the chart got cheaper than last week. Small caps arent the cure for large caps running. They just give you different ways to be wrong. Keep the core boring. If you want single names, cap the weight, build in pieces & judge them against today’s earnings, margins, capex, valuation & risk. Your 2021 entry was not a permanent discount card.

buried_lede

It’s riskier yes but my individual holdings have outperformed voo. I hold a lot of voo but certain stocks have been both great performers and made it easy to sleep at night. For years AVGO just kept quietly grinding higher. TSM has been that way too. I don’t worry much holding googl, up or down either. It’s a monster. Unless a paradigm shifts, it will be fine. I’ve also owned AZN for a while and it is great too, just a great performer. I personally wouldn’t own individual stocks if wasn’t trying to out perform VOO/. The SP500. Besides those i  have stocks Im less committed to but those are ones that have been solid and steady growers. I also own msft, which seems like dead money for the last three years. Maybe it will wake up. I don’t hold huge percentages 

Shredded__

I hold individually: INTL, AMD, MU, NVDA, TSM. I should look for a good ETF. Any suggestions anyone?

HansB20

Idk why people think you're flexing... Everyone is at a different stage of their investing journey. I think your portfolio looks great. I really like the mix of ETFs, megacaps (MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL) and then a few higher spec/risk names too. I try to invest the exact same way. I'm in NVDA, MU, TSM, and META right now as my megacap choices, and I'm in RDDT, NBIS, SNDK, and DRAM as my more spec / higher risk plays. Keep up the great work.

cavalierpos

If it makes you feel better, I have a PhD in silicon photonics and I never saw it coming either. People have been saying photonics is the next thing for the last 15 years. The original plan was for photonics to be introduced in roadmaps in the early 2030s, but due to the intense developments in AI hardware a lot of these roadmaps from fabs (TSM, NVDA, MU) have been brought forward significantly to fill these gaps. I don't think you should feel bad about missing out on these. It's equally likely that you buy a small cap in a sector that will never moon as photonics has, and even industry professionals are prone to missing them.

VenomBite214

If it dips more I buy more. I entered at $20, didn't trim any at $130, and bought more on Friday at $107. If it dips more I buy more. And wait till at least $150-200+ Intc sells more CPUs than AMD but it's market cap is less than AMD. intc need to be $150 to catch AMD market cap. But intc has fabs - cutting edge fabs. Apple is the 1st external client. Huge and picky client. Other clients will jump in in 2-4 months. Even if intc fabs get just 25% of TSM volume/ business (very conservative) then intc market cap will add 25% of TSM 1.9T market cap, which is 0.5T which is another $100/ share. So AMD + 25% of TSM = $150+$100= $250 - that is very conservative estimate in today's price. AMD and TSM market caps are gonna grow too...

dieharddubsfan

TSM another great choice. The mother of all advanced chips.

RicoSuave1962

I killed it. Sold when TSM gapped down to $393. 😎😁Thanks ! Long PLTR CALLS now

Todayjunyer

Companies whose CEOs didn’t travel. AMD. Google. TSM 😂 It’s like the allies to your axis

Nut_Negative

Trump onshores chip production and gives China Taiwan in exchange for best deals ever? TSM Puts

Low-Cartographer-429

Much lower PE than NVDA and less risk in a sense, because it doesn't matter which chip designer wins. TSM manufactures most of them.

Todayjunyer

TSM is so on sale due to this love it. In ten years they will have companies across the USA. And China isn’t going to mess with them they are just as invested.

No-Foundation8550

It's like worrying about the electric grid collapsing from an EMP. Can it happen? Yes, but you far more likely to have things keep going on business as usual. If global disruption happens, everything is going to get affected. Not much you can do except build a hole in your back yard and climb in it. As an aside, I think that China will eventually take of Taiwan, Xi even says by 2049 himself. The Taiwanese people lack the will to fight and take it seriously. The race is for US semi conductors to come online. TSM is stonewalling with their N-2 policy.

Jolly-Seat4325

Thanks…practically begged friends to check out TSM two 2-3 ago when it was still sub $100 and NVDA took off. And as everyone says….AI is only starting to take off.

Jolly-Seat4325

Sold some NVDA yesterday to add onto my TSM and GOOG positions for a greater short term (3-5 years) run up. Financials are looking fantastic for these two.

znightmaree

Had someone tell me I was a “literal retard” for buying more NVDA and TSM three years ago. The discourse is exactly the same today. The reality is that I am trying to snap people like you out of this doomer trance you are in because when you miss the bus yet again and people keep getting more and more rich, no one will care as you scream at the clouds and shake your fist about how it can’t keep continuing and the “bubble” has to pop eventually. I feel more pity for you and others in this mindset than anything. The market could drop 50% overnight and I’d still be a millionaire. I can’t imagine how I’d feel if I bought into this shit and missed out on all this. There is still time for you to realize you are wrong.

numbersev

>Is this basically a bet that Starlink becomes a huge high-margin broadband business? They're developing their own chips for the AI revolution (Terafab). TSM is in Taiwan and it's been speculated that as the global race for ASI ramps up, China will take Taiwan. It's similar to how Micron is the only big memory producer that is in the US and that relieves worry about supply chain disruptions from global conflicts. They will have space exploration, payload deliveries, lunar missions and even habitation. AI data centers will move to space. Then there is the Starlink operation where they can offer home internet, remote internet (planes, ships, cabins, desolate areas, etc.) and 5g to cellular. Once public the stock will balloon and then correct and then the market will figure out where it should really be.

Still_Loaded

Let me give you some inside information. I drive from Phx to Tucson a couple times a a week. For the last 10 years Intel has had no was than 10 cranes on sight… Do you know the cost of cranes? It’s not cheap. I drove by TSM last month they have 15 cranes still after starting operations. Until the cranes go away these can’t go tits up…. We are just seeing the impacts of the cranes at Intel from 10 years ago! Thank you for listening to m Ted talk.

MaterialGuy007

CSCO and AMAT earnings not impressive given TSM saying TAM $1.5 trillion - no one lists backlog over how many years!

FinishWarm1746

Taiwan wasn’t discussed. TSM no

EmbarrassedTension85

I get the risk, but SMH is already 20% NVDA and heavily tied to TSM/AVGO. If those move, the 'ETF cushion' is pretty thin anyway. I’m looking at the MU memory cycle as a specific play. You think the downside risk on MU/NVDA is really that much higher than the ETF if the whole sector pulls back after Wednesday?

TheFutureIsAFriend

Taiwan in play. Get yer TSM while it's hot..,

Correct_Exchange9070

Watch our gains from TSM get absolutely annihilated.