TSM

Indra_Sx

$TSM being a cuck today.

Indra_Sx

$TSM doing bad 👿

NotGucci

We are going have a lock-out rally. ASML, NFLX, and TSM this week. U.S blocking Iran is going choke-hold them too.

25obviousreasons

Because China needs chips too & we know how China can produce ;) TSM workers will become slaves and production up 3,000%.

Celticsmoneyline

TSM and ASML will absolutely rip this week

banditcleaner2

TSM to $500 by end of summer

Fhyzikz

I am pleased to report that I need SOXX to drop 3% just to break even. Need TSM to suspend guidance due to global shipping and fuel uncertainty

Jolly-Seat4325

TSM has a clear moat and growth trajectory. I’m long until 2030 and confident it will eclipse $1000. Reports are they’re already sold out on production before the new foundry has even been completed!

Coyote_Tex

Look at your conviction/confidence in each stock and attach a percentage to it and keep that percentage of your position and sell the remainder. You should consider the tax implications of selling a winning position versus holding it. ORCL is quite different from NVDA, or MU, or TSM by the way. In fact each of those are quite different and I would expect one to have different values assigned to them. You already have TSM's earnings and they have a strong booking backlog. Both MU and NVDA do as well. IMHO, you are now using the weakest stock in your portfolio to justify or scare yourself into selling the best stocks. So, think carefully.

Celticsmoneyline

TSM calls

GoinValyrianOnDatAss

The government wants to make INTC the US's TSM. Intel is currently valued at $300 billion and Taiwan Semiconductor is valued at $2 trillion. The math looks good for Intel.

Chaos31xx

Anyone else playing the ASML and TSM this week? Thoughts on AMD action?

Yul_B_Alwright

Puts are on the table but not right now. Im looking to get some next week with ceasefire window and going into ER after TSM

Indra_Sx

Cmon $TSM, don’t be a lil bitch

Specialist_Exam_8433

That's Thursday when TSM earnings trigger semi sell off

renegaderunningdog

ASML and TSM in the same week. Is that legal?

Specialist_Exam_8433

AVGO and AMD puts Wednesday before close, will drop like a rock on Thursday when TSM earnings trigger semi sell off.

Specialist_Exam_8433

Personally, I'm expecting semis to gap down on Thursday because of TSM. I would go with sympathy plays. AMD or AVGO puts before Wednesday close.

buybananas

Forget about Iran, the real bloodbath risk is TSM earnings and guidance

Specialist_Exam_8433

I personally think that this week is going to be dictated by JPM and TSM earnings more than anything Iran related. Heavyweights that are going to give the first real insight into how this war is affecting finance and semis (arguably the two most important industries in the world).

Chrishall86432

This is similar to what we do. We have 4 “buckets”. Cash/swing, Dividend Income, ETF boring stability, and Core/Long Term Growth. It’s working really well for us to have the “why” compartmentalized. As someone who spent 25 years in plumbing/HVAC with a side step into CFM: swap Schneider for VRT if you’re able to. And if it were my portfolio, I would have TSM and ASML rather than NVDA.

miketdavis

Look man, I sold all my TSM at $70 a few years ago. Don't ask me for any advice.  

Prize-Bandicoot-463

TSM calls

Prize-Bandicoot-463

That’s why you hedge only the volatile plays like TSM

Specialist_Exam_8433

We got ASML and TSM this week. AMAT, LCRX, KLAC soon, and then AMD AVGO MRVL NVDA May June

cedrus_libani

Am ber, but the short term bull case is that it's not going to show up in earnings yet. TSM has already previewed good numbers.

Unfortunatedude

They're taking money out to build infrastructure. There's nothing more to it. Blackrock told me so. My guess is that they're trying to step up to a level on par with TSM. With the introduction of AI standards and feasibility..replicating quality could be possible. For what purpose you ask? For war of course..now or in the future..war is always an option for wealth and outsourcing chips makes it more expensive. As well, if there's any scenario where a lockdown or UBI is introduced..having an early start building the needed infrastructure to service social media addictions, would be a great revenue plan. If they cared about your life or the materialistic things therein..we'd already have no issue with spreading the money around, or eliminating needless taxes etc. Infrastructure or fall to global progression.

Specialist_Exam_8433

Down, every bank along with TSM down. Market won't care, everything else pumps.

Specialist_Exam_8433

Short summary of this week: JPM is going to report cautious guidance, we drill a bit Tuesday then ignore it and pump Wednesday. TSM also reports cut guidance, drill Thursday pump Friday. Market continues to go up until semiconductor earnings come in and then goes to SPY 600.

barrel4barrel

I guess sharing financial reportings from TSM was delusional degenerate gambler dreams but saying oh the market might go down but it might go up but if it goes up it’s bc it’s rigged not bc my analysis is ass backwards is sooo much more valuable 🤣 get a grip

Specialist_Exam_8433

My guess is that Thursday we go down because TSM spooks the market with talk related to natural gas/helium ramifications and then pump Friday when the market ignores it and pushes forward. I'm gonna sit it out though because they may just pump the market green for another 5 straight days.

Specialist_Exam_8433

JPM and TSM earnings are going to matter more than Iran this week methinks.

IDrinkSulfuricAcid

TSM will announce they cured cancer and ended world hunger. The stock will dump.

Specialist_Exam_8433

JPM and TSM earnings will be the first two dominos to fall next week.

Party_Shoe104

Cool! TSM reports next Thursday. I guess today's earnings report had a few mistakes.

bearhunter429

>Terafab aims to produce 1 terawatt (1 TW) of compute capacity annually, which would be a monumental increase over current industry manufacturing, potentially equating to 70% of TSMC's total current output. #So Elon wants to build 70% of TSM's total capacity in one factory? LMAO🤌

Specialist_Exam_8433

Not TSM specifically. But 1 hr before close on Wednesday I am buying both AMD and AVGO puts, probably a month out.

-Ophidian-

TSM reported good earnings, guilt by association

kanyedidnothingwr0ng

so why will TSM earnings end the pump?

Specialist_Exam_8433

It literally doesn't matter. Market knows that any time TSM says they're expanding in the US it is total bullshit. They will NEVER make the most advanced chips here because doing so is an existential threat to them if USA one day decides we don't need Taiwan anymore.

geewillie

What will you do when TSM announces the newest expansion in the US next week?

Specialist_Exam_8433

There's only so much 🥭 can prop up the markets before TSM earnings put an end to this pump fake.

Lorna_Longan

TSM is heading to the moon!!

barrel4barrel

I’ve been buying TSM AMD SPY the last two weeks before the taco tuesday so i’m chillin. Welcoming a pullback on any weekend shakeup. Would help if you put a timeframe on your idea, I like to take swings a quarter at a time.

barrel4barrel

after TSM just reported record numbers you wanna short? enjoy getting bulldozed into tech earnings bud

Specialist_Exam_8433

Market is crashing next week when TSM cuts guidance due to rising natural gas and helium costs.

Jagged_Tide

TSM earnings

SpaceCatVII

TSM march sales out

HairlessChest

wow not buying TSM at 329 was a mistake.

Ok-Poetry-4721

sold my TSM option expiring in 2 weeks today for 100% gain. I wanted to hold the next two weeks for further gains but reasoned the volatility could easily make it crater back to my cost base and beyond. Ill take the win and plot my next move.

Specialist_Exam_8433

I'm a 🐂 but even I know this shit is going to dump all the way into FOMC on April 29th. TSM will probably be the first domino to fall next Thursday when they discuss natural gas and helium shortages.

Ok-Poetry-4721

Why is TSM up 2.27% pre market?

Venice_LA

TSM is such a beast

Character-Role-600

Surely TSM puts when we get near that

surmoiFire

Jim Cramer Says He Likes “Taiwan Semi Very Much” RIP TSM

Specialist_Exam_8433

TSM earnings next Thursday are going to give the market the first excuse for a leg down. Big tech will give the second. We are going SPY 620 by May.

isc1200s

In a few hours TSM is going give us clear direction regarding semiconductor stocks. If they crush on earnings we are going to fly higher than a giraffe 🦒 Choochee.

voisusfai

I placed bets on MU and TSM toward the end of the session. This is purely for personal sharing and is not investment advice; please do your own research.

Sub_Par_

Bought slightly OTM Monthly TSM Calls. 🥭 declares war over the weekend (2 days after my purchase) and calls plummet Monday. Instantly destroys all premium and never recovers. 1 month later calls expire worthless. Strait still closed, decide to become a 🏳️‍🌈🐻and buy puts. Market fucked but moving upwards??? Puts bleeding value. Market trading flat. 🥭threatens apocalypse and 30 minutes before close SPY gets straight vertical candles. He TACOs after close. Huge green dildo. 🐻 fukt. This is not my year. I miss NVDA’s bull run last year

kanyedidnothingwr0ng

And by that you mean controlling TSM? How exactly would that cause everything to collapse?

SWEET_LIBERTY_MY_LEG

Two years ago you could have bought shares in an actual real profitable chip fab rather than one that needs the government and flashy news releases to increase its stock price. You could have bought TSM at $145.

zendaddy76

Google, TSM

Specialist_Exam_8433

Puts for next Thursday before close on Wednesday. TSM earnings will tank the market.

Specialist_Exam_8433

Does anyone else think next Thursday is going to be the limit down? That's when TSM reports, which is really the face of the entire semiconductor right now. If they say anything about cutting guidance or helium shortages etc feels like we're in for a deep red day on tech.

Designer_Respect4285

But oil stocks have already run up massively despite their being a glut of oil before the war. How can you be sure that that hasn't been priced in? Why be in oil with such uncertainty when you can be in something like TSM where we know the demand is real until at least 2029? Granted there's some uncertainty, but when you see Claude Mythos outperforming PhDs in their field, it finding countless cybersecurity flaws better and faster than humans can, I can't imagine wanting to go big on oil.

MoreThanLuck

Here's my rough portfolio right now, though it's definitely a work in progress. I was initially aiming for roughly 50% VOO, 25% VXUS, 10% each AVUV and SPMO, and 5% individual stocks. I'm in my early 30s, willing to take on a bit higher risk for more growth. That said, I'm a bit over-invested in semiconductors, no? Was thinking about divesting the SPMO for more individual stocks in another sector, maybe pharma or green energy. Right now, I'm adding roughly $250/month, and not really increasing my positions on anything but the ETFs. |**VOO**|45%| |:-|:-| |**VXUS**|23%| |**NVDA**|10%| |**AVUV**|9%| |**SPMO**|9%| |**TSM**|4%|

JiffKewneye-n

i should have reloaded massively on TSM puts. i think all the worlds helium supply is keeping that price inflated.

superKWB

I did same... closed out TSM position and reduced my VALE position a tad... same reasoning you gave... good luck!

UnObtainium17

I hold 20 stocks in my personal account, 8 of them are up +4% or more. Been a while since i had a day this good. RYCEY, MU, META, TSM, EMBJ, RDDT, AVGO, ITA and GOOGL.

mneymaker

In the yesterdays total chaos, AVGO - GOOG - Anthropic deal was announced. Everyone was piling in to rush in calls for them. That's good But most, forgot WHO is actually going to be making those chips. **$TSM** **Earnings next week as well.** $400 incoming

wavrdn

The largest holdings in some of those indexes is TSM, which is my second largest position

Big_Hand7372

Tesla can spend all the money in the world on Terafab but money spent doesn’t = quality development. ASML, TSM, etc spent decades perfecting their processes. Theres a reason why companies aren’t lining up to sign contracts with Intel even when TSM is backed up. They will have to do a lot to prove they are a consistent choice over industry leaders.

lev10bard

Just buy TSM bro

greenpride32

"nobody is discussing"... As a shareholder I'm well aware of it. It's obvioulsy not good news, but in the grand scheme it's drop in the bucket. Sure NVDA would prefer to have China as a market (it would be second largest to US). But when the export rules don't allow sales to China, they simply move their production capacity at TSM to others that are going to sell out.

Stock-Knowledge-7783

Tech Earnings are going to kick off on April 15th when ASML reports, followed by TSM on the 16th

fallingdowndizzyvr

> Even best case scenario its probably 10 years before they could realistically challenge TSM's monopoly, and a lot of that speculation is already priced in. By then, China will already done that.

sharkenleo

What's going on with TSM and NVDA?

Designer_Respect4285

They are probably going to perform decently to well, but it's mostly because of things like the fact that TSM is sold out of 3nm until 2028 and 2nm until 2029. Intel's new chip , its new partnership with Apple, and the U.S. focus on domestic semi production are great signs, but I would rather hold TSM. I haven't really researched Intel in depth though, just in passing since I've held TSM for years.

MachuMichu

Even best case scenario its probably 10 years before they could realistically challenge TSM's monopoly, and a lot of that speculation is already priced in. I just think theres probably better places to invest in the short term, but I don't think its the worst long play. Might benefit from a cpu shortage too

AdAny631

I think this is saying the black market for oil is alive and well? This is nothing new and the other shoe to drop when strategic supplies are depleted is production has been permanently destroyed and refineries shut down. All this will take a while to restore. The most affected are countries in Asia. I’m still surprised that few people seem to be mentioning the loss of ~20% of the worlds Helium production when Qatars LNG plant got blown up. Helium is a byproduct of LNG production in minute quantities. Helium is non-renewable and limited resource that is vital to the manufacture of chips in etching for cooling. The big 3 chip/memory companies hurt the most are SK Hynix, Samsung and TSM. Korea imports 65% of its helium from the Middle East and Taiwan at 69%! TSM is facing a serious shortage in 6N grade ultra-premium and it could force production shutdowns or slowing in leading edge manufacturing without another supplier and that supplier is certainly going to a have a higher input cost and might not be able to meet their needs initially. If TSM can’t produce chips AI is screwed, PCs are screwed, Apple is screwed and the whole world economy slows significantly.

HugeAd5056

Lol noobs. I got 7 earnings calls correct in a row last year. How’d I do it? No clue! Half joking. It was all spreads. I don’t remember all of them, but I first filtered for the most bullish companies. TSM GOOG DAL AAPL were four of them. Can’t remember rest off the top of my head. The two that I was happiest with were TSM and AAPL. I guessed AAPL would pin around the 200 price of my sold put and drop below my 210 put based on which weekly put strikes were the most bought. TSM I guessed would move sideways when it was still around $230-$240 with a slightly bullish bias. Won with call debit spreads and put credit spreads combo.

Alternative_Leg_8537

Nvidia dominates in the GPU space and has the fastest chips around. Plus they are locked in with TSM for years to come.

cactideas

lol I basically did the same with TSM right before its huge rally. Had a huge dip after good earnings and I was so confused that I sold. One of my biggest mistakes

kktvMIN

It has potential but also faces competition from TSM, which has expanded outside of Taiwan (except for its leading nodes). IF it can compete at the leading edge that would be a massive upside. INTC strategy right now is to catch up to and leapfrog TSM by focusing on newer technologies without scaling up every production node along the way.

wulfe27

This is a great example of what the endgame is supposed to look like. In my brokerage I absolutely trade swings and avoid risk. I have made several blunders by bailing a position when I saw large risk factors. PLTR and TSM should’ve been 5x for me had I held, but I didn’t like the risk profile so I left, locked in profits and moved on. Still green, and overall I usually come close to competing with the averages, but to me it’s a savings account, so I avoid what I see as risk, and cash out when I feel like I’d rather protect my savings. My Roth is totally different

incitatus451

LOng NVDA+TSM+ASML, short TSLA is my approach right now.

JiffKewneye-n

TSM pumps hard at open-- buy put, wait 2 mins, cash a quick hundo. i love days like today.

cedrus_libani

I'm on a similar thesis, and I went with $EUM (inverse emerging markets). TSM, Samsung, and SK Hynix are in the top 5 holdings, with broad exposure to things that are also probably in trouble if emerging markets can't get what they need from the Gulf.

Several-Confection-7

TSM

AdAny631

People are aware, not just in this sub. The price of everything that travels through the strait will skyrocket and yes a lot of companies will eat it but they have already likely hedged enough against this probability. The futures market exists to allow companies, farmers etc…to either hedge or get paid in advance for a product to be delivered later. Long $OXY, $XOM, $XOMO (weekly pay YieldMax ETF based on $XOM and $MOS (Brazilian fertilizer with upside in rare earth mining). Thesis for $XOM and $XOMO is rising oil prices will offset disruptions and their LNG plant in Wyoming produces ~20% of helium in the world while Qatar LNG plant had 30% of supply taken off-line and thats used in etching in semiconductors. Most exposed are TSM and SK Hynix and Samsung in memory since 65% of their helium comes from the Middle East. I was considering shorting semis and still might. $OXY has ~15% of exposure to the Middle East but its concentration in US shale will give it room to go vertical soon. $MOS is simply a Brazilian fertiliser play whose previous earnings were due to one time costs and sulphur issues but with ~30% of fertiliser passing through the Strait, the price will skyrocket and its low valuation trading at a PE of about ~14 compared to industry average of 19 it seemed like a good choice since it has zero exposure to the Middle East. Also, joint venture with a mining company may yield huge dividends in rare earth metals by 2030 meaning that it may be a candidate for a longer term hold as a hedge since China currently does almost all rare earth minerals mining and building out mining and processing for these materials. Without them no EVs, semiconductor shortage, etc…

yakuzademon893

!banbet TSM 400 18d

EasleyGreenWave3

First of all congratulations on paying off mortgage and car loans! An example of what I've had great (faster than ETF) growth with: AAPL/AMD/AVGO/FLEX/JBL/TSM/WM. Research those on Google Finance and look at future Bullish growth. And yes, it's pretty chip heavy but hey, all devices these days need chips!

Sub_Par_

Money isn’t real to me anymore lol. If my puts fuck me I’m just tapping out and going back to stacking gold/silver 💀 I feel like every move is the wrong move lately. Principle has gone out the window. He declared war the weekend after I bought TSM calls with a couple months to expire, they evaporated the instant the market opened following Monday - despite Taiwan Semi’s great fundamentals. Very irrational market atm. I miss rolling calls on NVDA’s bull run last year.

Brb3001

Not necessarily betting on an invasion happening, im just saying that if it does that a lot of $TSM's infrastructure is on the island of Taiwan, and that these are facilities that cost billions to produce and supplement the super majority of its revenue. If those facilities are either bombed or taken by China and nationalized, $TSM ability to make revenue goes to essentially zero and there stock price will go kapoot. I don't see it as very likely that China will invade right now, HOWEVER if I was Xi Jinping and saw the world already in regional wars (so starting another wouldn't be as bad on the world stage, itd just be a new front) and especially saw that the Unites States is currently bogged down & preoccupied with Iran, I would consider this as a time to pull the trigger.

Brb3001

Keeping a close eye on Chinese military activities and any start to the build up of troops for an invasion force for Taiwan (as we are too bogged down with Iran currently to come to any effective aid for them in a short time frame). Once that begins and invasion looks to have a possible start date of a month out, it will be deep OTM puts on $TSM and calls on whatever would benefit from higher chip prices.

-B-H-

I closed my long MSFT and TSM calls today at a loss. Buckling down with cash a little gold and silver. Kept my puts open.

Fearless-Hat-3272

I am a BerBol...a rare creature many believe does not exist. After the drops in some quality stocks over the past month (TSM,NVDA,GOOG), I finally picked some up today, even with a little bump, they were already 20% down plus, 5% ain't going to ruin it. I didn't make any gains with calls today, because I didn't trust any of the companies popping hard and didn't want to get stuck with shit. IONQ can be up 10% 1 minute and down 10% 15 minutes later. I bought some small put positions, but waited till end of day to grab them - that said, they are all small positions...but tomorrow will tell alot. BYND ended the day up 19% and puts were cheeeeeaaaap.

Jolly-Seat4325

GOOG, TSM and NVDA before/during/after the war.

soup4br3kfast

!Banbet TSM 300 5d

DJSANJ

Around 17%, SMH, TSM, QIMC, COPX, ATH, HG. Still buying at discount.