XAR
SPDR® S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
Mentions (24Hr)
0.00% Today
Reddit Posts
Warfare persists, and investors place bets on odd defence stocks.
How Defense Stocks Telegraphed the Israeli Attack on October 7th
ETF and Market Evaluation for week of 02/27/2023
ETF and Market Evaluation for week of 02/21/2023
ETF and Market Evaluation for week of 02/21/2023
ETF and Market Evaluation for week of 02/21/2023
What would you suggest would be a good Aerospace & Defense ETF?
Invest for profit, not morals, an impending wartime strategy. Or: how I learned to stop worrying and love the bomb.
Leidos(LDOS) or Zynga(ZNGA) long term hold?
Mentions
It varies by the goals of the trade. Moneyness is a trade-off between upfront cost (leverage) and delta and probability of ITM at expiration. Where you enter on moneyness is an expression of where you want those trade-offs to fall. If you want maximum leverage, you'll go more OTM and give up on delta and probability. If you want maximum delta regardless of the cost, you'll go deeper ITM. Time has similar trade-offs. Upfront cost (leverage) is a trade-off with time. More time costs more money. Cost of carry for holding time is also a trade-off with time. Holding for a longer period of time has more cost of carry. Usually, for single contract long trades, like buying a call, time is governed mostly by your forecast. If you think XAR will rise another 10% in the next two months, that puts constraints on your selection of expiration. You can't pick an expiration that ends next week if your time horizon is two months, and so on. In comparison, you have more degrees of freedom with selection moneyness. Once you decide on the timeframe, you select moneyness according to the previously mentioned trade-offs.
Now what? Buy XLE and XAR at opening prices? Sell all else for now???? Help?!
Might be adding XAR and ITA to my long term with all this news. Was looking last 2 weeks but didn’t pull the trigger.
Idk about you, but I'm switching to ITA and PPA and XAR
If I remember correctly XAR equal weights rebalancing quarterly. Good for the thematic bet
PPA is another ETF like XAR for you to consider.
XAR but not for “easy money”. Include some of it in your long term portfolio.
Just get XAR. I’ve been loading up on it for the last month or so.
> defensive core against market crash Your defense against market crashes is the fact that you have 30-40 years. The market can (and will) crash over and over and over; it's not a big deal. Forget UTES, XAR, QTUM, and FTWU. > I have CLOZ/CLOX/FSCO/OUNZ as purely a safety net of capital preservation Also totally unnecessary. If this is for 30-40 years from now there's zero need to worry about capital preservation. Time is your friend.
You did pretty good. You came up with a trade thesis, made some assumptions about price target and time window, set up a trade to exploit that thesis, and now things aren't working out. This is what every veteran traders experiences every day, so this is good experience for you. Here's an explainer on [trade planning](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/mondayschool/yourplan) that can further your learning. So the question is, do you try to rescue the trade or do you just take the L and look for a better opportunity for your capital? I suggest you read [this essay](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/mondayschool/yourdecisions) on that topic, which goes over the various pitfalls to avoid. TL;DR - resist the urge to rescue losing trades, since it's probably emotions and Loss Aversion Bias that is influencing your thinking. That doesn't mean you have to give up on the *thesis*, but you don't have to get married to one trade in order to pursue the thesis. Sometimes trades just go wrong. Get used to it, it happens to every trader. FWIW, I suggest trading options on XAR instead of individual defense stocks. Trade the whole sector. It's been bouncing up and down in a narrow range over the last week, but over the last month, it's in a steady uptrend. So another possible takeaway is that you used too narrow a time window for your trade. You got caught up in the short term yo-yo pricing and missed out on the longer running up-trend.
At least XAR is up. Probably be up a lot more in a couple of days. 🚀
Calls on RTX and XAR.
It’s funny. PLTR is juicing SHLD and RKLB is juicing XAR. I like em all.
Wish I had more of it, and more XAR than I do.
Just buy XAR if you are holding long term. If you are just trying to make a quick buck then hell if I know.
being selective. Bought ford this morning for earnings and expect steel tariffs to be lifted, and focusing on food/bev and retail. Campbells (on their dip), WMT, TJX, was trying to get to Dollar tree before earnings tomorrow but, set my limit too low and a little late so it ran. A few ETFs, XAR - defense, VXUS for some diversification and a dividend.. Nothing crazy
SHLD, PPA, NLR, XAR, RING, EPR, EWG A mixed bag of decent performers for me this year.
Just sold XAR, was up 25%+ and have never seen it go above current levels.
XAR at ATH. The bestest missiles ever!
I’m slightly worried how well $XAR is doing for me. I think war is brewing.
US, early 30s. Individual brokerage account aimed at long term horizon (have separate 401k heavy on s&p500). Please rate my ETF portfolio which currently has an even spread of the following. What can I do better? Any other market sectors I should look into? Thanks! XME XAR VIS VDE VDC VB VOO SMH IAUM SIVR
yeah I'm still holding KTOS and XAR but not increasing any US defense positions at the moment. but you may be right on spending overall in the mid to long term. will depend on desire to cut spending vs. political reality of defense spending.
Lots of stocks & ETF's have low RSI (15 days, 75, 35) numbers (oversold). Personally I like the financial sector (XLF), aerospace (XAR) and some Utilities (XLU). I know .. lots of X's... Kinda my "kleenex" version of ETF's. But.... I also buy and sell a lot lately. The market feels a little chaotic for some reason.
Defense has been a regular winner for me. That's the real too big to fail. Love ITA and XAR.
You are better off losing up on European stocks considering the current state of the US economy. I would put split it between VXUS and XAR... Or their European equivalent.
We live in an economic system that demands perpetual growth in a world of limited resources. Civilization is, and always has been, about maintaining control of resources. Everything else is a distraction. I bet on the country with the greatest ability to exert military control. That's why I buy spy calls and use any extra money to load up on XAR.
Why LMT? The fighting is donezo. If you’re feeling hawkish, maybe just XAR or PPA.
Yes rare earth minerals mining and processing is critical to national defense; however mining industry in the US is subject to regulatory requirements and even with the new administration mineral extraction and processing is capital and time consuming. You maybe better off investing in a defense company or a defense sector ETF. For defense companies check out Lockheed, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, aerovironment. I am not long in any of those however I am long in Kratos (ktos) defense and mining LAC. For ETFs checkout ITA PPA XAR and UAV.
Long XAR, spdr defense and aerospace ETF https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1883927380366131448?t=fObewJi_QYgEP16xJFpkwQ&s=19
Nah, the only ETFs I hold are XAR and Vanguard stuff.
Crazy bullish. Gotta get XAR and PPA now. Lemme know when you make the move.
Yes but That’s why you invest in XAR and other aerospace/defense ETFs. T-dawg created space force in his first term and will want to grow it. At the same time the best defense is a good offense. We’re America, the military industrial complex don’t stop. Especially after seeing the recent hypersonic missiles Russia just used, best believe we’re putting in half a trillion into finding a defense system for them
Just been aggressively putting money in VTI, VYM, and XAR has been working well for me.
It’s simple just dump a few thousand yearly in NLR, NUKS, QTUM, SOXX, XSD and XAR over the next 20 years…while you’re sitting in that vacation house tell your family I said don’t mention it
They were also added to XAR in September for 7,739,594 shares. Small player but I got in at $4.23 and been swinging calls since. Also, I came across this article hours after it was released https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/veteran-trader-revamps-rocket-lab-stock-price-target-after-earnings So I bought more options because I’m regarded.
Trade Warzzzz. LFG LMT, RTx and XAR
One side actively wants the US to burn in hellfire and one side has more progressive laws than the US itself. I’m still in on XAR and LMT though.
Making money. Got a fuck ton at 5 dorrah. Sold 40% and got into XAR for all the war.
It’s a multinational drug dealer. My favorite next to weapons companies. I’m up bigly on XAR and PPA as well.
XAR is a big part of my portfolio
Yo I’m 16, brother listen to my words very carefully; Invest into the defense industry PPA, ITA and XAR are your best picks… it will pay off in the long run especially if the Middle East and Ukraine continues.
ITA https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ITA. XAR https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XAR.
Boeing is a mess. Wait for the current situation to be resolved before buying. There's a few growth ETFs if you exposure to the whole aerospace-defense sector. PPA, ITA, MISL, DFEN, SHLD, XAR.
No, VOO beats XAR—it’s done better overall. I’m not sure if it has beat XAR since I sold, but it’s been better YTD.
SHLD and XAR to the moon.
The creepy marriage between the nativist Right and self-loathing Left, obsessed with perpetually trashing America, is so eye-roll worthy. "America is in decline, We're a failing nation, American Capitalism is evil, our cities are warzones". blah blah blah. America is going to continue to thrive, if only because of how much of a basketcase virtually every other economy is. But also on its own merits. Stay long America and make lots and lots of money. OP in this comment chain is right about LMT though. Or just XAR/ITA.
Very true, a lot of them are holding big aerospace and defense companies that don't have as much growth potential as small caps. I like XAR but haven't invested yet as I like individual stock picking over ETFs personally. And I know I'll get shit for this but ARKVX because its the only way to get exposure to SpaceX. I'll take another look at MDA. I really only glanced through it before and dismissed it. Might be worth the time though.
bought a little more defense stock today... XAR PPA
Raytheon, Northrup Grumman, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, General Dynamics, etc. You can use these ETFs if you want it packaged up nicely: ITA, PPA, XAR, DFEN, FITE
OP, I had a play using S&P's equal-weight rebalancing methodology, and I think I have bad news for you. Notwithstanding the index/ETF differences (this one does seem to track the index quite closely as you pointed out), the weight of ACHR in XAR will be limited by ACHR's float cap. According to "Index Construction" section: https://preview.redd.it/gtr1gh3h1kmd1.png?width=1597&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8b566db3f25bb292fd8b827dfa446171333626b So ACHR's max weighting is lthe lesser of 4.5%, a multiple of their daily trading volume / TPV, or 4.5% of their float cap / TPV. Following their TPV methodology (get total AUM of linked ETFs, round up to nearest billion, add 20% and round up again), then this index's TPV is $4 billion, as long as the israeli and Korean ETFs are less than \~$600m combined. If the other ETFs are larger than that, the picture gets worse, so we'll go with $4 Billion. Archer's MDVT was 7 million for the period, so the liquidity-based cap is 5.35%. No worries. Archer's float cap on Aug 30 was \~$740m. The max weight due to float cap was 4.5% \* 740 / 4000 = 0.83%. Worries. The -10,000,000 delta in Q2 is based on the drop in float cap between Feb 24 and May 24, on the test days. Things have gotten a wee bit worse between May and 30 August 24. Based on S&P's published methodology, ACHR's weight will be reduced this month, and XAR will sell rather than buy to track this. Please let me know if you have any contrasting data or interpretations. I have been on a journey with index weighing, and have been wrong before, but this seems pretty brutally clear.
I'm not sure I'm following your Boeing and SPR point? XAR holds them in the exact same proportion as the index, no less no more? What am I missing in your argument here about historical stock prices?
Ok, let's pause for a second. Firstly, thank you for engaging with my post and taking the time to think through my argument and poke holes in where it might be weak. I appreciate the Socratic dialogue as it helps me better understand. To that end, I admit that I think I have confused the issue with my shorthand description of my understanding of the mechanics here. But there is no intent to deceive anyone here. You are correct in that State Street reserves the right to omit certain securities from the ETF. This is common across the industry for sampling ETFs but the reason why it is permitted is because it becomes administratively difficult for an ETF that tracks, say the Russell 2000, to hold all of the constituents of the index. When that happens, an ETF can instead invest in a sampling that reflects the same risk profile. That is not the case here. Why? Because the index in question doesn't have 2000 constituents, it has 32. Which is a small amount for an index. XAR holds all 32 securities, and if it chooses to hold all 32 securities, it must do so in proportion to their weights in the index. Otherwise it is exercising discretion over what is supposed to be a passively managed fund. https://preview.redd.it/o9tjm38kytld1.png?width=1075&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d9edcb8f95eff8bf030cb012c5bfd35a7c95af3 So, what I'm trying to say with this highlighted language is that SSGA has two options (the key word being "either"), "either (1) \[it\] may invest the Fund's assets in a subset of securities in the index OR (2) \[it\] may invest the Fund's assets in substantially all of the securities represented in the Index *in approximately the same proportions as the Index*. . . .". Because XAR holds all 32 securities, we are in option (2) land which means, by my reading, that is must do so in proportion to the weights of the index (which may include cash equivalents in lieu thereof, I believe).
That's just (my understanding of) how balancing works for index tracked funds. There isn't as much "asset managing" in deciding. XAR just tracks the index's constituents 1 for 1 (if it had more leeway in choosing, you would be paying a higher management fee). Money market funds will no longer be as lucrative to hide capital in, so it wouldn't make sense for them to keep it instead of deploying. The balancing test goes like this: S&P Select Industry Indices. At each quarterly rebalancing, initially equal weight constituents with adjustments to ensure that, for a given theoretical portfolio value (TPV), each constituent’s index weight cannot exceed 4.5% of the FMC and the value that can be traded in three days. No stock in the index can have a weight greater than 4.5%. TPVs are reviewed annually in September, incorporating index-linked exchange traded product assets under management (AUM) using the below process: Each constituent’s initial equal weight is compared to the calculated maximum constituent weight, and the constituent’s weight is set to the lesser of the maximum constituent weight or the initial equal weight. If the resulting index weights do not sum to 100%, iteratively redistribute any excess weights to the uncapped constituents. Secondary Reweighting. If, on the third to last business day of March, June, September, or December, the aggregate weight of companies with index weights greater than 4.8% exceeds 50%, index weights reset to the previously determined weights using the data from that quarter's reference date. If a secondary reweighting is triggered, and existing constituent(s) were dropped since the prior quarterly rebalancing, the secondary reweighting re-runs the reweighting process using the same data from the latest quarterly rebalancing.
As for other examples, this was happening to NVDA earlier this year when the other S&P select sector XLK had to sell off NVDA shares because it only allows two companies over 5% weight. See below for its NPORT. XLK isn't an equal weight the same way XAR is, but this shows you an example of how the ETF's rules can result in forced sales. https://preview.redd.it/hfafwedk0nld1.png?width=1473&format=png&auto=webp&s=dccc94690c1344314d67b628fcdb58858e529084
Great question! Thanks for taking an interest. I'm not a FA or a pro so please don't take my word as gospel but happy to provide my thinking. So the why did it cut question in its simplest terms\*\* is because the balancing calculations for an equal weighted ETF required it to sell but the resulting 1.2% was a larger cut to its respective weight than intended. Each ETF prospectus includes a very clear risk section disclosing that the target weights for an index are subject to error and inefficiencies in the market. So the divergence in small caps and large caps in the first half of the year may have caused a misbalancing. https://preview.redd.it/z8wkbjw8wmld1.png?width=986&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ec5bb0f3633431a1bbfd8c470ee5152e92da848 For instance, if during the time between the test date (a month before) and the balancing date, the share prices of the constituent securities fluctuates violently, you can have balancings that are a month stale. As an example, during the period between last quarter's test date and the balancing, Boeing announced its acquisition of SPR which resulted in a share price increase on top of XAR's existing rebalancing purchase and so an over weighting of SPR (as compared to the calculation from a month before) of over 5%, making it the largest holding in the ETF. What this highlights is the interaction between constituents in an equal weight and how one weight increasing necessarily entails another weight decreasing. **\*\***With that in mind, the more important point (in my mind) is that the ETF sold off a lot of its positions in smaller caps and instead increased its cash holdings by 50% up to 7.6% of total holdings. If you've been watching any of the CNBC talking heads, this comports with the ongoing discussion about capital "on the sidelines" ready to be deployed into the market. Why? Because XAR is permitted to hold cash and cash equivalents for risk purposes and the interest rates for money market accounts has been lucrative. But as the money market returns come down, those funds will flow back into the market, as is the case here.
Interesting thesis OP. I have a couple questions. Firstly why did XAR sell 10 million shares of ACHR previously, reducing its weight from 3.7% to 1.1%? I thought you said they only sell to rebalance down to 3.5%. Secondly, do you have examples from the past where a similar thing happened, either with XAR or another ETF? How did that turn out?
Equal weighted ETFs (theoretically) attempt to rebalance their holdings each quarter so that all of its holdings are equal (thus the name). All of the other holdings are 4.5-5% in weight while ACHR is at 1%. So, XAR needs to buy to get the weight up with the others basically.
só since the XAR sold now, in end of september will need to buy 3x more ACHR stock driving the price up, is that it?
wrong wrong wrong. XAR is not equal weight. see my top comment for more info
I wanted to join this one but regret to inform you that you are in fact, completely regarded. Your thesis on the XAR ETF being forced to buy more at next rebalancing is completely wrong XAR is \*not\* an equal-weighted index. The weights are limited by liquidity and market cap. Quote: >At each quarterly rebalancing, initially equal weight constituents with adjustments to ensure that, for a given theoretical portfolio value (TV), each constituent's index weight cannot exceed 4.5% of the FMC and the value that can be traded in three days. No stock in the index can have a weight greater than 4.5%. source: [https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-select-industry-indices.pdf](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-select-industry-indices.pdf)
The XAR ETF doesn’t hold JOBY, only ACHR. This is basically an ETF front run on a stock that I’m directionally bullish on. I also hold a JOBY position and think there’s plenty of room for both to thrive.
Thanks bud 🫡. This is my second time on this roller coaster—I bought back in May with the same thesis about the XAR rebalancing and hit big at end of June. Been waiting to re-enter and play again.
The XAR ETF that rebalances in September will need to purchase more shares for its ACHR holdings which are currently under weight at 1%. XAR is the largest holder of ACHR’s float with 7mm+ shares. XAR is an equal weight ETF meaning at each rebalancing it first balances all its holdings out to 3%. So all of the current 5% weighted large caps like Lockheed will be sold and the proceeds redistributed to the underweight securities.
I invest in XAR, it’s a aero/defense etf, I’ve have good returns, also with RTX, Raytheon
I'm getting hammered as well. Probably will sell at year's end to offset some gains. I am looking at defense contractor etf's. XAR & ITA are two that I've been researching. I think no matter who wins in November, defense contractor stocks will pop. Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Boeing, Northrop Grumman etc. Disney looks dead in the water. $120-130 is a loooonnnngggg way away@
Buy XAR stock it’s a an aerospace/defense ETF
I will admit I don't know the exact dealings in the US costs of shares, but is there not a brokerage fee even for buying and selling the shares? It's only my opinion as a keyboard warrior, most funds only hold smaller holdings across e.g. 10 stocks of 1% each due to pressure to look diversified. The majority of funds cannot beat alpha over time. Unless you have a perfect negative correlation, when the world ends every few years the majority of stocks fall in line with the market or worse and the whole portfolio takes a hit. Granted not all fall at the same level. Most major Exchanges rely on the top 9 stocks to push growth. Your sub 4% stocks add up to 14% in total so not a small proportion when netted together. But for example, of your independent stocks (Starbucks, Amazon, Costco, Lululemon and Intel) are already in your QQQM ETF and Kroger would be correlated to Amazon. XAR ETF looks interesting and I am in a few defense stocks stuff myself but would also expose your major holding in RTX as both defense related. Not criticising just being curious and its great to see something different then the penny stocks and general shite on other threads as this does look well taught out. There are a million ways to skin a cat and if it works, thats all that matters. My only thing is that you are not as diversified as you think except for the K-Pop one which is a super interesting find!!
XAR (SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF)
I bought some of XAR ETF in 2022, thinking it would be a smart play just as the Ukraine war was kicking off…. It’s been a dud so far. I’m probably going to sell and put it all in VOO.
Yes! But only because ITA, PPA and XAR only hold US equities. So I'm trying to restrict myself the same way. I guess if I wanted to add some exposure, I could add a position in SHLD which is an ETF with a lot of international defense holdings. That way it's already diversified and I don't have to do DD.
buy ETF like ITA XAR PPA. if you are in EU DFEN is good. i don t know a good worldwide war ETF....only US :(
XAR ITA PPA VNM (remove the war ETF which has 20% BA - forget which one it is)
I’ve been in XAR since December 2023
VHT and XAR already seem very specific. How long have you been in XAR, I was thinking to add something in that sector. VOO would be a broader bet than XLK.
Most of these defense companies can barely manufacture enough right now to meet past demand. War doesn’t change their sales unless open new manufacturing plana. Look at XAR or PPA after Ukraine war no noticeable changes, actually under performed SPY since then.
I don’t know how to read but I’m buying calls on `XAR` and `AXON`
XAR PPA and commodities PDBC BCI and uranium URA URNM
PEP, NOW, NET, DIS, EADSY (AirBus), XAR, SCHD and RACE
keep dreaming. that would pump it. take some ITA XAR PPA just in case (one of them has too much BA but i forget which one)
it s EU ETF? or is it the 3x US ETF? I m long XAR ITA PPA
Every broker should have a screener that can do that. But I'll tip you off to a trick I use that will make this easier. First, look up all the SPDR X*** sector funds. They have an ETF for each sector, as well as some sub-sectors, like defense industry (XAR) within industrials (XLI). You could just stop there, as most of the X*** funds have decent options, but Wheeling on ETPs isn't usually that good, since volatility is averaged out. Proceed if you want individual stocks. Look at the market-cap weighted constituents of each sector fund, from highest to lowest. If the top stock has liquid options, you've found your options ticker for that sector. If it doesn't, check the second highest, and so-forth, until you find a stock that has liquid options. Here are two examples, XLF (Financials) and XLV (Health care): https://www.zacks.com/funds/etf/XLF/holding Top stock is: BRK.B. It has options, but you could probably do better. Next one is JPM. That's a winner. https://www.zacks.com/funds/etf/XLV/holding Top stock is: UNH. It has liquid options, so you can stop there, though I fucking hate that company, so if you want to keep looking, the next would be LLY, which is making news recently and is pretty hot right now. You can just change the ticker in the zacks.com URL links above to get the other sector constituents. For example, to get the Tech sector, change XLV to XLK: https://www.zacks.com/funds/etf/XLK/holding List of SPDR sector funds: https://www.sectorspdrs.com/
there are war ETF like PGA (or PPA i forget) and XAR and ITA. One is shit because it s 20% Boeing
"Defense" can mean two different things: * Defense contractors, companies that make weapon systems for national defense. In which case I like XAR. * Defensive investments, like if you are anticipating a market crash. You can either go inverse, like PSQ is the inverse of QQQ, or use a hedge fund like RPAR, RLY or WTMF.
you can trade options with ITA, PPA, XAR, FSDAX, FITE, MISL
XAR is pretty stolid. Itll go up if we need to use any aerospace contracts in perhaps the next 30 months lmao
>XAR I'm already up 20% on my investment in 3 months, don't really need to do much to feel good about it, buddy.
Global warming. Global warming is going to switch from a liberal issue to a conservative issue. When countries full of people are having difficulty growing food it’s going to cause a border crisis in the US. The amount of immigration into the US will probably triple. You’re going to see conservatives fighting for global warming which is Hilarious to me. I don’t know what business is going to profit from that but the cynic in me says to invest in wartime companies. XAR is a great ETF for that.
Best defense ETF? -ITA -XAR -PPA
So your theory is that someone in foreign intelligence figured out an attack was imminent, this same person or group of people who are poor enough that they have to have day jobs working for an intelligence agency has enough money to buy into multi billion dollar corporations at a sufficient volume to move the stock, and they did all that to make, what, 10% on XAR?