XLE

ClassroomDesigner945

options has massive learning curve , then there are lots of spreads some spreads has higher probability some lower , some is purely for risk management i will suggest you some books to buy or get it i have read them and they are good i am still reading many so Covered Calls for Beginners\_ A Risk-Free Way to Collect -- Publications, Freeman -- 2020 The Options Wheel Strategy (Freeman Publications) ( adds some more things with covered calls ) I am reading this one right now The Complete Guide to Option Selling · How Selling Options -- Cordier, James & Gross, Michael -- McGraw Hill LLC Professional Division, \[N\_p\_\], 2014 -- isbn13 9780071837620 its good as well I read this book INVESTING IN ETFS FOR DUMMIES, UPDATED EDITION -- Russell Wild -- For Dummies (Business & Personal Finance), 2, 2023 -- John Wiley & Sons, -- isbn13 9781394201075 so i am using etfs as base for margin SGOV , JAAA etc they generate stable yield 3 % + depending on etfs your using . they are alternative to cash but generate yield . so its good you just sell then on the odte for your options to be assigned . I have also read many fundamental books for value and growth investing so you only do the wheel or csp cc on value stocks , and with lots of caution and planning with growth stocks . Some etfs are also great for the wheel . and move differently to stocks |Physical Gold|GLD| |:-|:-| |Physical Gold|IAU| |Physical Silver|SLV| |Mega-cap Oil & Gas/ based on stocks |XLE|

TheGoodBunny

Too late to buy XLE?

Sea_Local2557

i am short 400 stocks of XLE and i partially hedge it with BNO, XLE and VG options i got whiplashed in August and got assigned my short calls, then it almost went back to my avg price in september but didn't cover i am rolling the cash in box spreads which pays for the dividend and borrowing cost

_SirShackleton_

So you are XLE short, but hold singular longterm energy stocks?

Sea_Local2557

i am short XLE 😭😭😭 waiting for the drop

TheGoodBunny

Can someone explain how oil is spiking up while XLE is spiking down?

TheGoodBunny

Oil is up bigly yet XLE is down? Why?

mightyblend

I've got a small position in XOP, as well as XES. Trying to decide whether to focus in just on XLE or to spread out into some of those names you've mentioned—I sort of expect the whole thing to pop at some point so I don't think there's a bad play here, really just asking myself how much thought I want to put into it. I don't know a lot about oil, only that reality is obviously being ignored at the moment.

jasperCrow

Meanwhile every sector except XLE in the shitter

Aggressive_Metal_268

The S&P is no longer diversity, at least until the AI bubble bursts. Now it is dominated by AI and AI-adjacent. I hold VOO but also add XLP, XLV, XME, XLE, GLD, and a few others to reduce concentration risk. Bonds have historically been good, other than post 2020, so we'll see if now is the new normal or if they will revert to their prior role.

Nice_Soil1782

XLE

kerouac28

XLE and pray the rest of my stocks don’t go to zero

deadfishlog

All time high for XLE, maybe.

Fuzzy_Platypus6676

Well done. Sell half and buy XLE

Not_Sure_68

You didn't ask me, but I've been stacking put spreads on tech(XLV) and consumer discretionary(XLY) for a couple weeks. On the long side I've been profitable on medium term call spreads on XLB(materials) and XLE(energy). After the ridiculous price inflation blowout surprises middle of the week, I rapidly built call spreads on a sulfuric acid recycler(ECVT) and a petroleum shipper(STNG). I also built ZEBRAs on a junior silver miner etf(SILJ) and a diversified platinum miner(SBSW). Three of four turned green Friday despite the sea of red.

Not_Sure_68

I began stacking put spreads on select tech companies a week ago Tuesday. A bit early, but it has worked out quite well. There are some very weak minor tech names with massive piles of debt that are AI adjacent. Given the huge movement in bond yields over the past six years, some of these companies are likely to not be around all that much longer when they have to refinance those piles of debt at junk rates 1000+ bips over gov 10y debt. By Friday the same week...which would be the 9th it seemed clear that tech, in particular was due for a pullback. I began stacking put spreads on XLK(information technology). On the long side I stacked call spreads on sectors heavily exposed to the real economy. XLE(energy), XLB(materials), and XLI(Industrials). This past week I added to some of those shorts and after the ridiculously hot price inflation print, I began stacking call spreads on precious metals miners...particularly PMs that are also heavily used in industry(silver and platinum). IMO, if/when yields turn around and again begin marching higher bond buyers fleeing for apparent safety, will begin looking for safety from their safe space. ...that only leaves one place.

semper-gourmanda

Oil for sure - USO, XLE, ERX (2x), etc. And then if SOXX keeps going down I'll by SOXL again.

Not_Sure_68

I wouldn't have either, had it not been for Thursday's bizarre swings. I assessed the available information and arrived at the conclusion that currency flow was ex-equity and into fixed income. IOW, the "safety" play. I don't think that will work either here because bond yields will head right back up imo. As a result I took out bear puts on some debt bubbles pretending to be AI companies, slapped some put spreads on XLK, and call spreads on energy(XLE) and material sectors(XLB). As a result I had a great yesterday in the market...even though I didn't even know it until last night.

Not_Sure_68

Okay... Very happy for your in-laws...really. I like stories of determination and overcoming adversity. ...and why would you watch 40% of your wealth evaporate? Nothing but nothing builds wealth faster than being on the right side of these massive re-allocation events. It's not about "whining" as you put it, it's about making unemotional, logical, rational decisions based on the evidence at hand. The equity market has been splitting in two all year and simply refusing to see it is not going to make it "unhappen". Would it surprise you to learn that the DJIA has outperformed the QQQ by 93% since the 2000 peak? Did you know that from the 2000 peak to 2007 the gap between the DJIA and QQQs was already a staggering 82.65%? QQQs -48.93% DJIA +33.72%. Go look it up yourself if you don't believe me. You see, it's not about "being fine" and "not whining" it's about assessing the situation absent emotion. Recognize opportunity when it presents. If we're at a similar inflection point, and I believe we are, then people that short the financialized manic bubble(XLK), and go long the real economy(XLB, XLI, XLE) will have the potential to build generational wealth.

Not_Sure_68

Experienced investors also recognize when obvious sector rotations are obvious. Just because something is falling in price does not make that something "cheap". Odd as it may sound, one of the largest market drivers this year is the way the overly financialized AI buildout is overtly driving money flow away from financialization and into the "real economy". This is going to continue and will hurt information technology. This makes the way to play this very obvious. Short information technology(XLK, QQQ)...long energy(XLE), materials(XLB), and industrials(XLI).

dpatel211

XLE is once again proven to be free money in a truly regarded market. Should’ve made the move over in July

One-Description-2126

XLE, VDE, yeah you know ME

InvisibleEar

I really should have full port XLE at 53 and set a limit for 70

creemeeseason

Haven't posted as much of late, but I added some XLE November calls last night. The chances of some escalation in the Gulf leading up to the election seems like a reasonably sure thing. I think to it as insurance.

Burtonwurton

XLE hitting that all time high lol

ReturnOfFrank

Thanks, I was wondering why $XLE was shitting the bed today despite prices.

jrex035

On a related note XLE is down more than 1.3% today lmao

SteakEater137

My XLE has easily beaten the SPY alone this year lol

StonksGoUpOnly

XLE is the play, think it breaks $68 today and $70 mid next week.

Neat-Message-5649

XLE hits 67.50 I'll probably buy 100

Neat-Message-5649

go XLE go

Neat-Message-5649

Can XLE break 67.50 again please wtf

Neat-Message-5649

Think this is a good entry point to long XLE

StonksGoUpOnly

Buy XLE if hits 67.50 and TQQQ if it hits 82

STONKLEAPS

XLE breaking out

InvisibleEar

XLE new ath, whoopsie

Not_Sure_68

100%. I've been tempted at times to overweight XLE just because it's so obviously going to outperform, but I do want to save some dry powder. Perhaps when I re-deploy my tech short positions. XLBI, XLUI, XLSI, and XLVI materials, utilities, consumer staples, and health care should all do well after a correction. I will likely go right on disliking XLK, XLC, and XLY(tech, communication, and consumer discretionary).

mindmelder23

You want to overweight energy specifically XLE in the environment. And not just due to the war for a plethora of reasons.

TrotzigerKrieger

Interesting analysis, particularly your observation about XLK and XLE carrying much of the market since August. I'm also concerned about the interaction between elevated Treasury yields, financing conditions and speculative growth valuations. Do you see the current divergence primarily as a liquidity problem, or as a valuation adjustment caused by higher required returns? And are you seeing confirmation from credit spreads, or mostly from sector relative performance?

Not_Sure_68

Pardon? The XLK(information technology) and XLE(energy) are the only sectors up since mid August. ...and if tech is leading the decline, how come the Qs are up 21.43% while industrials are up only 7.8% YTD? Heck, even the silly top heavy SPY with 4 stocks carrying the entire thing is still up 14.06% YTD on the back of NVIDIA, MSFT, AAPL, and AMZN ...iow, the AI stocks. Tech has been the only thing holding the market up for months...precisely like 2000.

Not_Sure_68

Yep. Basically what you're seeing is an equity market with two main drivers...information technology(XLK), and oil services/production/refining(XLE). The other 9 of 11 sectors of the S & P 500 began diverging from those two in mid August and have been negative ever since. When I began warning people about this a couple weeks ago, I was told to not talk about it any more...and typically not in a very nice way. I've even provided concrete evidence by charting the sectors, but people just get mad about it. I've personally been in income sector funds and commodity producers for months. XLEI all year and XLBI(materials) for the past few weeks. I have bear put spreads on ORCL and APLD and if things get ugly, I intend to add some XLSI(consumer staples).

pharmd

Already heavily in XLE USO sends you annoying K-1’s at the end of the year. It is embarrassing to show my CPA the -$1

Threat-Level-Midnigh

https://preview.redd.it/59y7uaz8nguh1.jpeg?width=2048&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=43bba6fae62ba1a442d1d119ad8e97155f8e1110 Anyone else on the XLE train? The calls were literally free money.

jrex035

Depends on when you bought, but fair, at current prices XLE isn't something I'd like to hold for 5 years either

jrex035

Holding XLE is gambling? How do you figure?

joe4942

XLE: +3.2% today lol.

jrex035

XLE hit $62.56 on March 23. Today it's $63.38. More than 6 months of elevated energy prices, with product prices higher for longer than they were in 2022 and oil currently more than 50% higher than where it was on Jan 1, and yet XLE has been effectively flat for more than 6 months. And they wonder why there hasn't been a big rush from oil companies to ramp up production or build new refineries when even in the midst of an energy crisis (and bond market crisis no less) energy equities are barely outperforming tech

NurUrl

XLK and XLE Carrying hard this pump

SteakEater137

XLE has dropped 5% from its month's highs when literally nothing has improved related to oil/gas lol

natebro142

XLE back to 65 please and thank you

Saddleup_dawg

Probably bad advice- At 29 you have a long time horizon. Put 5% in high beta high potential equities, then I would say 15% short term bonds, 50% should probably be the companies with strongest balance sheets + cash flow + long term growth in XLU, XLE, XLF, XLK, XLV, XLY, and XLP. 15-20% boring everyday names you know and trust as long haul companies (ie Amazon, Apple, Coke, MSFT, PFE, etc), and 5% metals, commodities, and currency. Go for low correlation if you can. I think that should add up to 95-100%. Look for dividend payers where you can. If you have sufficient cash, buy one or two of those names at 100 shares and sell covered calls as a synthetic dividend.

Not_Sure_68

Please don't. The risk in the crowded AI trade is insanely high and the potential rewards are priced in. I would(and am) deploying assets to high yielding companies/ETFs in the oil patch. We're being horribly misled about the situation with regard to the energy situation. I like and currently have positions in XLE, XLEI, PBF, BTE Commodity producers in general are screaming buys imo. The entire complex just corrected and some of the miners are insanely cheap. GBUG is a Sprott actively managed gold mining ETF, SILJ. Wheaton(WPM) and Newmont(NEM) are the 500lbs gorillas in the gold and silver space and while their valuations are nowhere near as appealing, they're well run and rock steady. Regards.

Not_Sure_68

Suggest you wait till you've more working capital. Being under funded will push you into some unpleasant corners. With $4-5k, you could probably put together a nice stack of XLEI and sell covered calls against a covered call fund. lol That's currently under $3k for your initial equity position, it pays out a monster yield(18%), and is in an uptrend...which I believe has legs(XLE = oil). The drawdowns are likely to be very mild for the foreseeable future. Obviously you don't want to be in this thing if it does turn down for an extended period...as you'd just be fed your own capital, but if you believe we're in the 1970's redux...as I do, then it makes sense. Good luck.

masala_chaii

At this point, I’d be more comfortable buying XLE or USO calls, than any puts

InvisibleEar

Bought XLE again, thoughts and prayers please

Paradox08880

XLE calls

Janubeary

VDE and XLE are good for exposure

Happy-n-Healthy

You doing XLE?

DarkR124

Calls for suppliers that will fill the gap, I’d do a month out. Maybe even 90 days. CVX, XOM, PSX, PBR, etc. I went CVX, PBR and XLE.

baconography

Buying more UGA, USO, and XLE at open with this recent dip; nothing has really tangibly changed, and these idiots have no negotiating skills beyond demanding personal bribes via crypto to make it all go away.

FFF_in_WY

Nope. I played options cuz I was bored at home. Did ok, nothing crazy. Didn't buy back into a settled investment set until the localized high of October of '21. Although I appreciate your high opinion of me. And I got a lot of XLE that I've been holding since, so on the whole, I will not complain.

Sea_Local2557

based on how XLE almost dropped 3%, future prices and demand are being repriced as well

DarkR124

I loaded up big today on OXY and XLE weeklies. Great dip.

DarkR124

Oil the only dam thing making me money right now. Up big on PBR, OXY, XLE. My tech/semi shares getting bent over. Don’t see the bleeding stopping until the wars over which could be years.

West_West_313

So you’re saying my XLE should do alright?

QuanTradin

One thing on USO as the go-to for US oil exposure: it holds front-month futures and rolls them every month, so when the curve is in contango it pays to roll and lags spot on the way up. In a squeeze the curve usually flips to backwardation, which helps, but the day the panic fades the roll cost comes back. If the thesis is producers benefit from a high price for the rest of the year, the producers themselves or XLE track that more cleanly than USO. Are you playing the spike or the level?

vrotvic

The fear is warranted but the hysteria is mostly the Dems trying to tank the market before the midterm! .. I'm gong to pick up some XLE puts for December in the mid 60s to ride it down for the spectacular crash

SomePolack

USO and BNO for oil itself CVX, XLE, XOM for oil companies

paper_jam_dipper00

USO, XLE, or MCL futures for brokies. CL futures for the big boys

Sea_Local2557

I'm short XLE but i'm positive oil companies are now overvalued just need to let my deeply red position roll

PatientAd9394

The only sell darkpool on Friday was on XLE. A 211 million sweep.

Deso718

I actually think you’re onto something here - with US midterm elections coming I think we’ll see another “peace deal” and round of short term market manipulation. Not quite the same but I went with XLE puts - range of strikes and DTE - I don’t have the stomach for leveraged but I think the fundamental thesis tracks…

Tyrannofelis

So... all in XLE?

version-two

Checks energy and XLE 👀

DarkR124

XLE has formed a pattern every day last two weeks (minus one day) and it’s been printing money for me. Still too pussy to go all in though so I’ll take the daily +$500-$800ish tho

gmehra

buy XLE?

dvdmovie1

Years of above goal inflation, people continuing to reach for investment risk and real assets (energy ETF XLE beating the tech XLK etf YTD) rather than sitting in cash. Every day this sub endlessly lists all the negatives in the global economy/politics, but for some reason concerns over the risks never seem to result in concerns over the currency. Things like talk about $5,000 dividends to everyone (yes, I know it's not going to happen) and a hundred other things that this sub has I'm sure noted many times and people on here have been asking "should I sell and go to cash!?!?" for years now.

Sea_Local2557

because it happened yesterday, priced in though the US response for Saudis call for help is bullish, maybe good time to add to exposure? i have bull spreads so will just buy back short leg to increase my exposure although i'm bearish XLE, this situation can't last for long or if it does it will bring back oil consumption - high oil prices are truly transitory

Wide-Contribution-29

You’ll find this funny, but I didn’t even know about USO until right after the invasion. By then I assumed itwas a sell the news moment so I didn’t bother buying.  I was however sitting on some nice XLE options gains which I bought right after Venezuela. I knew something seemed odd but after getting burned on gold and silver I was not as keen buying more commodities. I figured the underlying oil companies would work instead.   

octopus_serenader

really hoping XLE follows.

kerouac28

XLE

Spac55

Total North America Oil production \~32 million barrels per day (bpd). Total consumption \~ 25 million bpd All Hormuz global Oil price crash very badly soon. War is not going everyday. It’s tit for tat. On top now Venezuela production bump. $QQQ $NVDA $SMH $MU $TLT $XLE $SPY all impacted today, its opportunity https://preview.redd.it/asq1kgq5mqoh1.png?width=740&format=png&auto=webp&s=81572eb3dcd7575eafc9edd2d8ec70a512a8aa2b

TreGet234

Yeah why does XLE stink so much?

DynoJoe27

Oil up 6%. XLE down slightly on the day

_AntiSaint_

Just buy oil… how are you people this blind to the most obvious swing trade that’s been free cash for months now? CVX, XLE… MPC IVR is high now but it was a cash printer for like 3 months.

octopus_serenader

yeah i can't decide between USO or XLE here for the short term.

InvisibleEar

Not me being a paper hand selling XLE

DarkR124

Think I’ve found a new strat. XLE pops almost every morning for the last week. Wait about 30mins - 1 hour after open, buy puts basically OTM and wait a bit. Been making 20-30% every morning this past week. Works until it doesn’t.

billyd1984texas

Been buying $50 a week of XLE for years

No_Current3675

XLE n chill

jrex035

At this point I've got mixed feelings about refiners. They've run up big this year (the CRAK etf is up 70% ytd vs 42% for XLE) with some big names up way more than that (VLO 130%, MPC 140%, PSX 98%). I think they likely still have more upside ahead as the global energy crisis right now is being expressed in absolutely mind-blowing crack spreads (the profit to be made from refining oil) and record/near record high refined product prices. But I don't expect this situation to last forever, there are signs China is entering back into the refining space in a big way, which will drive refined product prices lower and crude higher as they consume the latter to produce the former. So all that's to say, there's likely still upside potential but the downside risks are growing. I'm personally still holding PSX and VLO as well as CRAK, but I took some profits today.

Peeeeech

XLE up +40% ytd

Sea_Local2557

MCD, short XLE, short ORCL

SteakEater137

Oil up and diesel apparently close to an all time high, but for some reason oil related stocks and ETFs like XLE headed down all day. Very odd.

FailingEfficiency

Yes. I’ve been long a bunch of XLE calls and own MLPI. With the possibility of rate hikes, I’m not sure if that slows the gold/silver trade so exited recently. I only use floating rate bonds to eliminate rate hike risk. I also shifted my equities to dividend/value so that there’s less impact from inflation/interest rates. And I diversified significantly, picking up obscure non-correlated ETFs like FOXY and IALT. I don’t think this is noise. I think this market is on a dark staircase and each time we take a step down everyone breathes a sigh of relief because surely that was the bottom…

rowinghorse7

XLE making new highs everyday. lol.

Bravadette

XLE being sneaky

version-two

Ruh roh, Ya know things aren’t goin too well when VOO and XLE are at the top of the sentiment board.

Spac55

Total North America Oil production \~32 million barrels per day (bpd). Total consumption \~ 25 million bpd All Hormuz global Oil price crash very badly soon. War is not going everyday. It’s tit for tat. On top now Venezuela production bump. $XOM $CVX $VLO $RIG $SLB $HAL $EQT $XLE \& many soon cooldown https://preview.redd.it/5xfbpqfqzzmh1.png?width=740&format=png&auto=webp&s=84bafe453d8462788d84f343b64d3e7b8b3742a0

TreGet234

XLE really was just waiting for regards to sell to rip higher. Just part of the ever encompassing manipulation in this fraudulent market.