XLK

IvoryTowerResident

i been short precious metals as a hedge to the XLK breakout. IGV still doing amazingly

Not_Sure_68

Yep. Basically what you're seeing is an equity market with two main drivers...information technology(XLK), and oil services/production/refining(XLE). The other 9 of 11 sectors of the S & P 500 began diverging from those two in mid August and have been negative ever since. When I began warning people about this a couple weeks ago, I was told to not talk about it any more...and typically not in a very nice way. I've even provided concrete evidence by charting the sectors, but people just get mad about it. I've personally been in income sector funds and commodity producers for months. XLEI all year and XLBI(materials) for the past few weeks. I have bear put spreads on ORCL and APLD and if things get ugly, I intend to add some XLSI(consumer staples).

TehWildMan_

XLK to the moon regardless.

Not_Sure_68

I began shorting the AI silliness yesterday. The weak rallies on declining volume...seems like it's running out of gas...finally. My target so far is limited to the XLK and the tool of choice is a bear put spread. It's about the most cautious way to play it, but I'll likely get more aggressive if when it really turns down.

Spac55

When economy crash at 10yr at 5.3%, what tools Fed has ? Look 90% sectors are in recession, excluding few make vibe for AI spending push. Any time spending like QE, market goes up. When interest rate high, how long debt load push high, at negative cash flow. $XLK $XLF $QQQ $SPY $SMH

Key_Associate7587

what y'all think about XLK call $198

music_is_gud

Didn't XLK have a breakout on Friday? The COT data on nasdaq from last week is making me a bit bearish on XLK right now but it did have a breakout so 🤷🏻

Not_Sure_68

It will soon correct violently imo. The divergence between various sectors of the S & P 500 since March of this year has been shocking. For instance on March 30 shortly after the current warmongering adventure in the ME began the YTD performance of SPY was lackluster at best with most sectors under water. The standout sector at the time? ...utilities(XLU) with a whopping gain of 2.25% YTD. Nearly everything else was underwater. Since then...with the massive surge in bond yields XLK has surged 52% going from the worst performing sector to the best YTD, while utilities have cratered to -11%. I would urge those that wish to stay in equities to rotate out of tech and into real meat and potato businesses. Materials, utilities, health care, energy, etc...because what is coming is going to be brutal imo.

APJ30

I have been mostly wheeling ETFs like SLV, XLK, XRT, SOXQ, DRAM, AIS, IWM, COPJ etc. Some are not as liquid as you want and the premiums might not be the best but I am not exposed to any single stock name and returns have been modestly good. Lately I have been looking to increase my capita andI am thinking of moving to wheeling good quality individual stocks (non speculative) with excellent track record like an the of the MAG7 stocks. Could you please advise what would be the parameters you would look at before selecting the right stocks? Would wheeling the MAG7 stocks be considered a safe strategy?

Spac55

$SPY $QQQ $XLF $XLK $XLC $XLY $SMH $IWM see earnings soon. Vix spike to 25 at earning. Cash flow negative for many. AI-ponzi spending. Big corporate debt load, cost more to service at higher rate. Earning suffer, as jobloss spike, consumer spending down

techart786

Sell all 30000. Save that 962K while you can. Buy SPY, VOO, IVV, XLK, QQQ, SMH. Don't open your portfolio next one year. Thank me after 1 year.

spaculoso

XLK & XLP? XLK & XLI? How are you checking this anyway, are you using some cool mysterious website to show the result against VOO?

NurUrl

XLK and XLE Carrying hard this pump

XanALqOM00

I wouldn’t bet on any single company for AI. Just buy VGT or XLK if you’re interested in holding concentrated basket of tech.

Saddleup_dawg

Probably bad advice- At 29 you have a long time horizon. Put 5% in high beta high potential equities, then I would say 15% short term bonds, 50% should probably be the companies with strongest balance sheets + cash flow + long term growth in XLU, XLE, XLF, XLK, XLV, XLY, and XLP. 15-20% boring everyday names you know and trust as long haul companies (ie Amazon, Apple, Coke, MSFT, PFE, etc), and 5% metals, commodities, and currency. Go for low correlation if you can. I think that should add up to 95-100%. Look for dividend payers where you can. If you have sufficient cash, buy one or two of those names at 100 shares and sell covered calls as a synthetic dividend.

Spac55

Compare XLU and XLK Fed is not hiking all meetings to push economy to recession

Bravadette

XLK looks so rdy

Downtown-Text6587

I would say if you want to bet on tech, just buy a boat load of a tech fund like XLK or VGT and those are already very concentrated. I know historical returns are not predictive but these two ETFs have beat every ETF I can think of that doesn’t use leverage. I’m not even going to try and pretend I know enough to pick individual tech companies except for maybe Apple.

STOPbuyingPUTS

True. But tech drives the market these days. XLK also has a higher dividend and a much cheaper expense ratio. Keep on rocking. 🚀

STOPbuyingPUTS

The tech sector XLK ETF is up nearly 250% since 2022 lows. Why not just buy that? Set it and forget it.

joe4942

Crazy to see the MAG7 back to ATH before XLK/QQQ after massively underperforming since 2025.

Parallel-Quality

Yup, eyeing the XLK myself.

Spac55

Rate hike cycle & timing of recession always correlated. Now all AI spending cooling, all AI IPO delay with over hype theme without ROI. Rest of economy in recession when only hype semi & Neo clouds hang with vibes. Higher rate impact all including AI $SPY $QQQ $XLK $XLF $SMH going big Opex , 6 Trillion transactions pump volatility

Spac55

Fed hike 0.25 after a long time Looking housing sentiment, when all sectors of economy cooling &only AI-hype push index high, how the economy will react? 10Yr at \~5%, after 19 years If AI delay, many IPO delay, many banks struggle next $QQQ $SPY $SMH $XLK $XLF $NVDA $MU just pump dump Algo, when AI story cooling

Veranim

“Falling off a cliff” XLK lost 1.01% in the last 3 months but is up 27.46% YTD A little price correction and WSB loses it. Just buy and hold you fogging regard

WSBshepherd

Tech (XLK) & Semis (SMH) for the long term. If you think ai is a dud, you obviously haven’t tried ChatGPT 6 Pro. It’s AGI for just $20/mo.

superKWB

The answer to your question can be found by looking at the State Street XL funds for example, the industrials isXLI, tech is XLK etc… now after you know them (takes 5 min. or less), go look at those charts for the last three months… which ones went from high to low, and which ones went from low to high… I have this info. Baked into my excel dashboard… it goes out 2 yrs. You’re on the right track. Oil up, med in general, not just bio techs… good luck.

DaveyParks200

Not all ETFs are low growth. See SMH, XLK, etc.

deprecated__

You'll get terrible advice here - stick with QQQ. If you want more risk/reward then a bit of XLK, SMH. Add a few individual stocks like GOOGL, AVGO, CRDO.

dvdmovie1

Years of above goal inflation, people continuing to reach for investment risk and real assets (energy ETF XLE beating the tech XLK etf YTD) rather than sitting in cash. Every day this sub endlessly lists all the negatives in the global economy/politics, but for some reason concerns over the risks never seem to result in concerns over the currency. Things like talk about $5,000 dividends to everyone (yes, I know it's not going to happen) and a hundred other things that this sub has I'm sure noted many times and people on here have been asking "should I sell and go to cash!?!?" for years now.

ap1618

Fair, I have always used XLK but will look into QQQM.

Waygzh

I don't really have time to research and explain why you're wrong, but Gemini does. "Tech Sector Exposure Breakdown Information Technology (IT) sector weights across S&P indexes align closely with the quoted estimates when tracking standard mega-cap metrics: * S&P 500 (SPY): The IT sector currently accounts for roughly 30–32% of the broad index. * S&P 100 (OEF): The top 100 mega-cap stocks hold an IT weight of approximately 44–45% (driven by heavy concentrations in semiconductors, software, and hardware). * Top 10 S&P 500 Holdings: The top 10 largest companies make up ~38% of the total S&P 500 market cap. Within that top 10 bucket alone, pure IT companies (Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Broadcom, etc.) account for ~24% of the S&P 500's total weight. The internal concentration of tech within just the top 10 holdings is therefore 24 / 38 = 63.1%, making the ~65% claim highly accurate. Exposure Math Verification Comparing the S&P 100 (45% tech) to the S&P 500 (30% tech) yields a ratio of 45 / 30 = 1.5. An investor in the S&P 100 is exactly 50% more exposed to the Information Technology sector than a broad S&P 500 investor. Historical Performance & Profit Verification (August 2020 – August 2026) To test the profit claim, we must evaluate the actual 6-year total returns (adjusted for dividends) of the S&P 500 against its mega-cap counterparts: * S&P 500 (SPY): Grew from roughly $321 to $767, representing a cumulative return of ~138%. * S&P 100 (OEF): The primary ETF for the top 100 stocks closely tracks mega-cap performance. Its cumulative return over the exact same period is roughly ~145%. * Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): Often used as a highly concentrated tech benchmark, it grew from ~$284 to ~$716, yielding a cumulative return of ~152%. To make exactly $10,000 in profit on a 138% return (SPY), an investor would have started with an initial principal of roughly $7,246 ($10,000 / 1.38). Applying that exact same $7,246 principal to the top-heavy indexes over the same six years yields the following: | Index | 6-Year Return | Profit on $7,246 Initial Investment | |---|---|---| | S&P 500 (SPY) | 138% | $10,000 | | S&P 100 (OEF) | 145% | $10,506 | | Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | 152% | $11,013 | To generate $15,000 to $20,000 in profit from that same initial investment, a mega-cap index would have needed a 6-year cumulative return between 207% and 276%. While a pure Information Technology sector ETF (like XLK) achieved returns in that range, blended top-heavy portfolios did not. The remaining 35–55% of non-tech holdings in those top-tier indexes diluted the tech sector's hyper-growth. Final Verdict The quote is half-true. The foundational premise regarding the sector weights and the 50% relative increase in tech exposure is highly accurate. However, the conclusion regarding historical profit is mathematically flawed. The author falsely assumed that having 50% more tech exposure automatically translates to making 50% to 100% more total portfolio profit, severely exaggerating the actual historical outperformance of mega-cap indexes compared to the S&P 500." Despite the tech exposure (and risk) the outperformance isn't nearly as dramatic as you claim.

Dankkuso

Maybe he is referring to that XLK(tech sector etf) was 200 at peak in early june and fell to 165 in late july. Which is almost 20%. It is now 185 though so i don't know.

Patrick_Atsushi

Maybe just XLK instead of betting?

CoffeeGroundsTrading

Tech didn't rise Friday. XLK was the worst sector on the day, down 1.55%. Nvidia was down 4.57%. What rose was comm services (+1.42%) and consumer discretionary (+1.15%). Amazon was up 3.97%, but that was the Evercore target raise plus the expanded AWS chip deal, and that same deal is part of why Nvidia fell. One story, two directions. Not a rates story. The rate sensitivity did show up, just further down the cap scale. Russell 2000 down 1.39% against the S&P at 0.25%, and XBI down 3.48%. That's where the floating rate debt lives.

Spac55

Big leaders build legacy & what legacy now? DOGE, Tariff, Trade,China,Epstein, Greenland, Venezuela, Iran & back to Canada, just before midterms. When gas & groceries price comedown? $SPY $QQQ $NVDA $SMH $XLK $XLF $XLC hedge fund buddies vibe pump few to divert all, when 10yr high.

Fabulous-Transition7

That's a lot to keep up with. VGT or XLK would cover most of your positions in a single etf. GPIQ/GPIX is superior to JEPQ/JEPI. VTV, SCHD, or SPXT covers the blue chips.

joe4942

Lower low for QQQ and XLK.

IcySatisfaction2601

The numbers are BS. I can tell you a strategy that has outperformed the market consistently the past 10 years. Buying XLK. The market is such a vague term. Why is the S&P500 considered the market? Why not S&P50 or S&P25?

WorkingGuy99percent

No NVDA or AMD or MU or SKHY or soooo many others? AMZN and WMT are too similar, diversify the 5 with someone else for WMT (AMZN gets you compute as well). Healthcare or manufacturing or power is a good option (GEV, CAT, UNH) or even a drug company. I totally don't follow this advice....so long Tech (SOXX, XLK, lots of Nasdaq Indexes). I do have a lot in small and mid indexes too though.

Halbaras

Potential crash aside, QQQ is a fund for active investors who want to pretend they're passive investing. It's only as popular as it is thanks to having a first mover advantage and the way GICS classifies sectors. People invest in it because it's a proxy for higher-beta US tech (to the point where platforms that don't want to pay the Nasdaq fees call it the 'Tech 100'), and it's fairly conventionally accepted wisdom in retail spaces to 'have 20%+ in QQQ for higher gains'. But it's not actually a purely market cap weighted tech fund. The Nasdaq-100 is actually one of two sister indexes, with the other one being their top 100 financial companies. So banks are excluded, but QQQ holders end up buying Walmart and Costco because they're Nasdaq-listed, and don't buy tech companies like Reddit that happen to be NYSE-listed. It's also not been purely market cap weighted since 1998, and weird things would happen if a single stock managed to exceed 25% of the total Nasdaq-100, or companies with individual weights of more than 4.5% exceed 48% of the index - QQQ would begin selling the offenders off. Then there's the abusive recent float adjustment rule and direct entry changes they made to bribe Musk into listing SpaceX. A company that lists on the Nasdaq at 5% float is now weighted as if it's 15%, QQQ holders are forced to compete for the in reality smaller pool of shares after just 15 days, and the insiders laugh all the way to the bank. VOO is legally classified as a 'diversified' fund, but QQQ is not. In theory, a dedicated US tech ETF would be a much cleaner and more honest semi-active high risk, high reward fund. The reason it doesn't exist is because the mainstream idea of 'tech' includes Amazon (tech by revenue, a low margin consumer cyclical by what they spend money on), Google and Meta (classified as 'communications' by GICS) and Tesla (a struggling car company with a massive speculative premium). If you use the industry-standard GICs rules like XLK does, you only end up with three of the Mag7 (Microsoft, Nvidia and Apple). If you buy another ETF for communications, you get saddled with Verizon. If you buy consumer cyclicals, you get Home Depot along with Amazon. If you buy one of those 'Mag7' ETFs, you're performance chasing and don't buy Broadcom (larger than two of the Mag7 currently). The Nasdaq happens to have all seven listed and most of the other big tech companies, so it's become the default. And big IPOs now have an easy way to harvest QQQ holders for liquidity thanks to the Nasdaq's conflict of interest as both an index provider directing a trillion dollars in other people's money, and an exchange with a vested interest in having those IPOs go to them and not the NYSE.

Mjensen84b

You don’t have to beat the market. 75-80% of all active portfolio managers cannot beat the market, that’s fact. Just invest in the market ie VOO and VGT/XLK in a 70-30% (VOO 70%, VGT 30%) and leave it for 20 years. Make sure you have enough emergency fund to dip into in case of emergency so you never have to sell in a crash, the index will recover and make new ATH.

UpstairsNerve2681

That’s why some of defensive sectors are moving because they’re squeezing last drops from megacaps and others in XLK for example but we see declining volume on say ES\_F so need probably some correction I hope maybe flagging into September

WordsHappenedHere

You are doing way too much here. Just Hold SPY VOO XLK. Way too much individual stock risk for me.

ur1z

You can open an account at Morningstar and test your portfolios. They have a free trial. A lot of US equity IMO and a lot of Mag7 overlap. For me, SPY and SPDW and some focused ETFs if I want to increase some sectors. Like XLK, XLF or SMH

Paradox08880

XLK -5% tmr gg

ArkAngelEV

☀️XLK casual +5% no big deal

ArkAngelEV

im checking XLK up 4%; “they“ really wanted to shake out leofold on purpose didn’t they? This dude folded with A,A

Spac55

After BearStern bailout, $AIG, $WAMU , Lehman one by one. $SPY $QQQ $SMH $XLC $XLK $XLY Leopold Aschenbrenner’s hedge fund bailout last week. Situational Awareness by June 2026 his fund was worth $45 billion How much today ? Fully liquidated Margin debt, 1.5 Trillion https://preview.redd.it/sua4c64y9dhh1.png?width=776&format=png&auto=webp&s=0fddf8265f61db9061505235eab48cc1ca46aeed See how crash wipeout at downturn

No-Consequence-8768

1. Don't buy 'New' Vehicle, 2-4yr old nice one. Not FORD! 2. Don't invest in Crypto. VOO/SPY-Middle of road (the market S&P) Your young add some XLK/QQQ/m, SMH/SOXX (Nasdaq/Tech & A/I). 3. Short the Inverse if gonna play with LEFT's.

No-Consequence-8768

I'd choose XLK for Tech growth. And you want only 2 equities. Triple the XLK with TECL and add Managed Futures QMHNX. 40 TECL 60 QMHNX. 1. Nearly Double your Growth. 2. 2x-3x Income via Divs w/QMHNX 3. Made money during 2022 and bear times. Let the Downvotes begin...

No-Consequence-8768

***The Nasdaq is the tech index,*** NO it Isn't! Try XLK. QQQ isn't even 50% Tech!

joe4942

XLK getting close to a bear market. Down -16% from the highs.

EvictionSpecialist

I rather put that in XLK at $175

SarahWVA4

When I realized most of the gains were just tech stocks, I started buying tech stock indexes. XLK and VGT in particular. You can't buy them easily in 401k buckets, but brokerage accounts, Roth IRAs, and IRAs it's about 75% of what I own when I can direct it.

teslaTools

Yeah algos + ETF flows are a huge part of it. When SPY or XLK gets bought, every component moves regardless of fundamentals. Correlation goes to 1 on big mac

NegativeEfficiency95

Keep gambling with 10%, any gains over 10% put into an aggressive portfolio mix with the following VOO, VGT, XLK, QQWM, SMH, VXUS

InvestingNerd2020

Technically outperforming the S&P 500 index. Hard to do with individual stocks over a 5-20 year period. High growth ETFs have since 2015, but with more wild ups & downs (volitility). Example: SCHG, FTEC, VGT, and XLK.

CloudSlydr

The S&P has held up remarkably well as it’s been a constant day to day rotation between sectors but overall it’s within 5% (less than 3% actually) of AtH so this isn’t even a correction market-wide. The damage is limited to XLK and tech. And moves of this magnitude there is far from a new thing. In both directions.

InvestingNerd2020

VOO is a core ETF, so it need to be 50-80% off your portfolio. You can use QQQM to suppliment it at 20%. Even better, use XLK. 60% VOO and 40% XLK.

joe4942

Small cap value outperforming tech now: YTD: XLK: +21.9% AVUV: +22.35%

Spac55

$SPY $QQQ $XLK $XLF. Earnings strong Iran war now like Ukraine war, market digest and neglect tweet noise.

Spac55

$SPY $QQQ $SMH $XLK big ER time There are 12000-20000 target attacks on Iran, market digest and move higher. By strong earnings Few more even 1000 times more , does it make difference to market ? Big earnings drive index high. By $NVDA $MU $META $GOOG $AMZN $MSFT and so on

joe4942

XLK officially in -10% correction.

joe4942

* XLK: -0.6% * MAGS: +1.75% * DRAM: -4.9% * IGV: +1.6% Quite a weird day for tech.

Guilty_Cancel_2596

Sell it all. Just buy XLK and relax

Spac55

IBM. 250-260 today possible $IBM earnings not bad, it’s normal earnings 2-3% earnings variations normal, all don’t move like memory Diluted Earnings Per Share: GAAP: $2.27, down 2 percent; Operating (Non-GAAP): $2.93, up 5 percent CPI: 3.5% Time to load BigTech before big earnings spike. $QQQ $SPY $XLK $XLC $XLF $MU $NDA and more memory and AI stocks shift It’s not bad earnings

Spac55

$IBM earnings not bad, Diluted Earnings Per Share: GAAP: $2.27, down 2 percent; Operating (Non-GAAP): $2.93, up 5 percent CPI: 3.5% Time to load BigTech before big earnings spike. $QQQ $SPY $XLK $XLC $XLF $MU $NDA and more memory and AI stocks shift It’s not bad earnings

WolfofWoodstock

’d recommend investing that money into a brokerage account of your choice. Depending on your risk tolerance, you could consider sector ETFs like XLF, XLK, or XLV, or gain exposure to broader markets through QQQ (Nasdaq) or SPY (S&P 500). Since SPY trades at a higher share price, SPYG — often called the “poor man’s SPY” — is a solid growth-oriented alternative if you’re working with a smaller amount, like $2,000. If you’d prefer a more conservative approach, you could allocate some of the funds to a money market account instead. Another option worth exploring is setting up a trading bot — linked to your brokerage account through whichever AI platform you prefer — and starting small, with just a couple hundred dollars, to see how it performs. This is only my approach! There are more than 3 ways to skin a cat!

Spac55

$SPY $QQQ $SMH $XLK big ER time. There are 12000-20000 target attacks on Iran, market digest and move higher. By strong earnings Few more even 1000 times more , does it make difference to market ? Big earnings drive index high.

NoMore_stu

Look at XLK

technologyready12

Ya. I hold XLK, so if AI takes a breather, Apple and the software companies in the ETF will perform well, so it will only drop a little. Investing isn't about getting the biggest gains; it's about earning good returns while avoiding disastrous drops. Investors need to achieve 2 objectives.

technologyready12

MU's 10-year PT is $650. Memory is a commodity, and MU is only the 3rd-largest player in the business (the top player normally gets 80% of business in any industry). Memory can also be mass-produced. 1 factory can output 300k wafers a month and 800 dies per wafer, or 2.9B dies a year. There are dozens of memory factories in the world, and many more are coming online. Don't believe what memory CEOs say—their job is to sell their products and stock. RDDT's 10-year PT is $2,000+. It's unique and irreplaceable, and at a $30B market cap, it has a long runway. A simple investing method is 75% XLK (all tech, including hardware and software), 20% RDDT, and 5% stock-picking money. No chance to fail. DCA biweekly. Retire in 10 years.

ranting_chef

The only reason I’d leave it all where it is would be if I thought it would outperform the broader markets, which it definitely has been. But nobody can tell you the future of any stock, especially anonymous people on Reddit. I have about two thirds of my portfolios in ETFs. Most are heavy on Nasdaq/Tech. And most of those beat the S&P index funds. A tech ETF (like QQQ or XLK) might not go up as quickly as AMD when it’s on a run, but you won’t see as much volatility. If you’re not planning to take profits soon, I’d put some of my profits into an index fund like the S&P or Nasdaq. And seriously, if you’re looking for advice, speak to a financial planner - preferably in person. I’ve found a lot of great stocks on Reddit I probably wouldn’t have heard of otherwise, but I’ve also found quite a few that didn’t turn out great, either. An experienced professional will ask you a ton of questions about you and your lifestyle before making any suggestions.

DyehuthyTV

DIA (*dow etf, aka "value"*) is outperforming QQQ (*nasdaq100 etf, aka "growth"*)? YTD, 1Y, 5Y performance? lol No, QQQ ETF still winning here, this are not "Equity Factor ETFs" are just US Market Indices, that also are driven by Equity Factors and US Sector Rotation, big difference from directly Factor ETFs. You can understand this, if you can see the Sector Composition (weight%) of each one of this Equity Factor ETFs (Aggressive sectors, vs Defensive Sectors, Sector Rotation). Maybe you are talking about IWD factor (value) vs IWF factor (growth) ETFs, here Value ETF outperforms Growth ETF, but just YTD and 1Y timeframe. Yes, this can happen even without "bear market", cuz the people can start to be "defensive" for several reasons, like inflation, not just for 'bear markets'. *IWD have more weight (%) in Financials (XLF sector) and IWF have more weight in Technology (XLK sector)* >IWD and IWF are iShares (Blackrock) ETFs from Russell1000. You also have Vanguard ETFs, IVE (value) and VUG (growth) from S&P500. Not a big difference, but it shows up in the long run. 😉

Any_Influence_8305

I already sold my SMH and XLK the other morning and this post made me realize I fucked up

throwawaayy011

I’ve been burned then decided to quit. After watching the trump game (war -> peace -> war -> peace), I started a new system. Monday starts red then I watch it when it bounces off a bottom, I buy calls near the previous close. Tuesday is a taco day. So it’s almost always green but you cant do much there because it only gaps up and 1dte are usually very expensive. I watch VIX, CL1!, XLI, XLK, DXY and US10Y as they give early signals. If US10Y goes above 4.4%, expect a peace tweet within 24hrs. If you notice a VIX sudden jump, expect a significant drop. If you see a significant CL1! movement downward, expect a god green candle but you need to act quickly and sell as almost always god candles retrace. XLI and XLK precede SPX movement by 2 weeks but watch it only for direction and dont base your decisions on them. Always buy puts before trump or the fed chair goes on a speech. During the fed chair’s speech, buy calls. Stay on the sidelines on the day trump speaks. You need to know the white house’s schedule the day before. If the market is choppy bouncing between red and green, it’ll close within 5pt of the previous close. If you catch one of those great days where it’s choppy and then it suddenly moves 15-20pts below or above the previous close within 15mins of market close, aim for near the previous close and have balls of steel. Just put in your orders and wait. Now obviously this is not an investment advice. This is me talking about myself to myself. I have two accounts and I started doing this in one of them with $100 and now it has $3k. With the huge military asset movement in the middle east over the last 2.5mo, I expect something major will happen before the fall. My plan is to anticipate the move’s timing and place a $5k bet that should turn it into $100k if im lucky. If it all goes to waste, it’s ok i accept the risk.

Jealous_Bookkeeper20

The main issue with DRAM is that memory is a highly cyclical commodity business. These ETFs are usually launched near the top of the cycle when memory pricing is peaking. When the cycle turns, Micron and Samsung earnings contract quickly, and holding a concentrated basket doesn't protect you from the industry-wide downturn. You're also paying a 0.65% fee for a portfolio where the top 3 holdings dominate the index. That's a high structural hurdle compared to core tech funds like XLK at 0.09% or QQQM at 0.15%. If you want exposure, it's cheaper to just buy the individual stocks directly or stick to the broader tech index. How are you modeling the memory cycle downturn?

kradreyals

Yeah, my theory is that since these companies are spending so much, institutions are selling mega caps themselves, causing them to dip, to pump up the targets of their spending. Then once they are happy with the gains of SMH or DRAM, they sell off to top off the discounted mega caps. It's really dumb. I hold XLK and its obvious when it stays almost flat, the megacaps drop 10+%, and the SMH moonshot 200%. Broad index fund holders are being used as liquidity.

FishFart

XLK?

siboq

Buy XLK and chill

joe4942

After MU earnings yesterday, wasn't really expecting value to have such a good day today, and for XLK to go red lol.

WorkingGuy99percent

I keep gobbling up shares of SOXX, XLK, and TQQQ on these broad tech drops. I believe future earnings reports will continue to beat for most of these companies. A lot of beats lift lots of other stocks too. Too many beneficiaries to invest in all of them. Great news.

Corded_Chaos

Fair but If they are bullish on tech, 8% in a tech ETF is fine IMO. VGT is too top heavy for me, I would choose IXN or XLK.

joe4942

> The sell-off really hasn't accelerated at all from today's open in the indices. This is another BTD opportunity. I'm not a big fan of technical analysis, but DRAM and XLK closed near the low of the day with a fairly bearish inverted hammer candle, and DRAM had the highest selling volume ever.

joe4942

Highest red selling volume ever on DRAM today. XLK and QQQ both made a lower low rather than a higher high, and since the June 9 low, never returned to the June 3 highs. Then there's the news stories about the amount of leverage investors in Taiwan/South Korea are using to chase memory/semiconductor names which have disproportionately carried the market over the last year. Market could go either way with MU earnings tomorrow, but all things considered, there seems to be a lot more downside risk than upside.

TheInkDon1

So full disclosure, I really only buy LEAPS Calls on ETFs with good 3-month momentum. So I really don't 'play' any tickers for premium harvesting. I just place long bets on things that are going up. That said, a main idea of my post was that if you're selling CSPs or CCs, *it's probably best if you do it on something that's going up.* Don't even look at IV, and certainly don't search for it as a ticker to sell premium against. **Be directional** and you'll have better outcomes. So all that said, here's what I'm in right now: CHAT, CIBR, MTUM, RSPT, SOXX, SPMO, VLUE, XLK I plotted[ DRAM, FOTO, and AIPO against each other](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/compare/dram-vs-foto-vs-aipo/), and here's my thoughts. But keep in mind that I go long, and don't just sell Puts and hope it doesn't go down: I wouldn't be in **FOTO** because it's negative on the 3-month and 1-month. **AIPO** has had a good 3 months, but its 1m is flattening, so I'd be thinking about finding something better. Now **DRAM**, that's been incredible. And I was in it some weeks ago, but it's just too volatile for me. Look at it [compared to SOXX](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/compare/dram-vs-soxx/). Change the view to the 3m. **SOXX** has been more of an escalator, while DRAM has been more of a rollercoaster. And at 85% over the past 3 months, SOXX gives *plenty* of return. Just my thoughts, but a lot of things work.

JellyfishFestival

The Mag 7, or at least the traditional FAANG stocks have become uncorrelated with QQQ and XLK in a way I never expected. It's all just semis now and everything else is along for the ride

joe4942

It's more than just memory selling off following the KOSPI -9% drop: * XLK: -3.5% * SMH: -6% * QQQ: -2.8%

TheInkDon1

Great question, and I think one we've all asked ourselves. *Because it's "the Tasty Trade way" is why.* That (and they) seem to have fallen out of favor, but a few years ago it was all anyone here or at r/ThetaGang preached, and you were a heretic if you did anything different than "30-45DTE, 30-delta, close at half-profit or 21 days." Search the forums and you'll see. But it works, there's no arguing that, so it's a great place for beginners to start. Now, like you, I thought Weeklies were the jam. But I soon found out, for "reasons," that they're not. But I'll leave that for you to discover, because I can't really explain it quantitatively. I just know they were harder, so I stopped. Then for a long while I went to 30DTE/4weeks. But lately, on *some* things, I go 2 weeks. But never less; that's become a hard and fast rule for me. But try it for yourself, 1 week. Then maybe try 2, and then maybe 4. But I'm surprised you didn't hit on the REAL reason for anyone wanting to do Weeklies. You discussed it, but didn't reach a solid conclusion. In fact, it seems like you've maybe found that 4 Weeklies is a bit less than a month. It's not; it's MORE. *Significantly* more. I wish it was the weekend so I had clean Weekly option prices to work with, but I'll extrapolate. **There's more theta-per-day in a Weekly option than a Monthly.** (So when you multiply by 4 {or 4.345 weeks in an average month}, you get a way bigger number.) That's a fact for any ticker, any time, and I want you to prove it yourself this weekend when you can compare 5 full days of premium to 25 (4 weeks). But in the meantime, for **SOXX**: The **655P** is right on the money with the close at 655.01. Perfect. The 4DTE is trading at 18.20 Mid. Divide: $18.20 over 4 days is **$4.55 per day.** That's how much money, *per day*, you stand to make if SOXX ends the week above 655. Now take the 17Jul655P (25DTE/almost 4 weeks) trading for 41.05 Mid. Let me use 24DTE from the open tomorrow, that helps give it a higher number: $41.05 / 24 days = **$1.71 per day** Wow! You can see that the Weekly pays over *twice* as much. In fact, it's: 4.55 / 1.71 = *2.66 times as much.* And THAT'S why people think Weeklies are the jam. But there are drawbacks, which really come down to a longer expiration giving you "more time to be right." But try it for yourself, you won't get into much trouble, it'll just be a lot of work and angst as the price wiggles. **Bonus Section** I didn't think the difference was going to come out that high (I'm remembering about 1.5x from when I ran these calcs before), so I want to check a few other tickers I trade that have Weeklies. **INTC** 2.7x **XLK** 2.4x **NCLH** 3.1x So the **SOXX** number of 2.6x is right in the ballpark. But I think that me using 4 days as a stand-in for 5 days is skewing the numbers. Add that 5th day and the theta-per-day will come down a good bit. Which invites an intriguing experiment: What's the theta-per-day at 3 days? 2 days? 1 day? I'll leave that for the reader to pursue. Be good.

JellyfishFestival

Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Netflix all down substantially yet XLK the tech sector ETF up well over 1% The semis just took over the place even from the biggest companies in the world

IvoryTowerResident

how tell me how much SMH XLK and DRAM went up yesteday

ChickenMazhou

I see what you’re saying. I guess for me personally it wouldn’t be worth it. I’d sooner write 1-month CSP’s for 1% on stuff like XLE, XLF, XLU, XLK. If assigned then write the CC’s and wheel it. I think anybody who writes CSP’s has to be prepared to wheel if we get a tail event. Strategy would likely yield 12% annual pretty consistently

joe4942

XLK already exists.

joe4942

* XLK: -11% * SMH: -10% * AIS: -15% * DRAM: -17% At least in tech, it's definitely in a correction.

Virginia_Tesjan

Would do: 20% XLK because tech is gonna lead the next 25 years just like it did the last 25 year. 40% VOO for S&P 500 20% VEU for international 20% VIG for dividend and growth

joe4942

Even bigger red candles now than Friday for SMH and XLK.

joe4942

From the highs: * IGV: -16% * SMH: -12% * DRAM: -18% * AIS: -16% * XLK: -12% * SOXL: -41%

Ceyenne18

SPY -0.15%, XLK -1% Almost all the industries are green. This is a rotation out of tech ahead of CPI.

Dip2Tip

XLK