BX

honey_102b

the executives have recognized that the less than stellar gross margins were a big reason for downward pressure on the stock price for many years. remember, MU was one of the last tech companies to join the AI stock pump. mind you, a margin of 30-40% today is great, but not so when SK Hynix is doing 40-50. so if you recall in Aug, MU exited the Mobile NAND market and laid off the entire China workforce in this category. this is the segment that supplied the likes of Huawei, Honor for many years under Sanjay until the Chinese were able to supply themselves via YMTC. this one was an easy cut. also around that period they looked at the NAND roadmap (all ssds) and prioritised releasing Enterprise NAND first. note that it is normal to release consumer first (lowest grade, imagine Crucial BX series), OEM mass market next (supply Dell, Lenovo and their own Crucial MX or P series etc), then mobile (supply phone companies) then enterprise (data centre SSDs) then finally automotive because of the increasing complexity demanded by these segments for what is essentially the same wafer that takes about a full year to reach maximum performance capability from their respective qualification runs. Mobile was already gone, and consumer and OEM was pushed to AFTER enterprise, so today's announcement was several months in the making. at the time I assumed the purpose was to get the first next gen enterprise SSD out before anyone else (2027 btw). but to drop the lower grade NAND like this suggests they are doing everything they can to make margins better next Earnings call. it does not automatically mean higher profits because stopping NAND does not make capacity for DRAM or HBM it's a different kind of factory. and a wafer that did not meet enterprise spec cannot just be sold as enterprise wafer today just because you decided to stop selling to consumer market. what they can do is sell the consumer wafer for a higher price to an enterprise SSD manufacturer who will do something to pass it off as the same. and of course MU's operating cost for the consumer business unit will go to zero. overall, it's a little more profit for MU NAND segment but a lot more operating margins. read...more EPS...more stock price. tldr executives are making a lot of tough decisions for the stock price. better believe it.long MU.

Huhuix

Yeah got GOOG, BRK and VTI as core holdings from a few years ago. Been doing well. But been adding a few financials, healthcare, and energy stalwarts in the Roth. BX, BLK, COR, MCK, V, JPM, ELV, ISRG, VDE

PriorCaseLaw

I bought that recently. Up 32%...I should have bought GS. BX has also been better than kkr.

WickedSensitiveCrew

Yeah, I was inspired by a GS or BX report. I forget which but they basically said the way to make money right now is to go where the money’s being spent. They highlighted two areas: weight loss drugs and data center buildouts. I get that some people don’t trust GS/BX and think they use retail as exit liquidity, but what they said about data center expansion outpacing new home construction made sense to me.

Puzzleheaded-One-607

Great numbers. No clue why it trades at such a discount to KKR and BX

Automatic-Acadia7785

I have a watchlist of stocks i named "Evil Corporation". Includes companies like BLK, BX, LMT, RTX, MS, JPM, GS, XOM, etc.  Performing second only to the tech watchlist 

Think_University6435


Disastrous-Muffin743

My SPY 2MTE calls: 🤝 My BX 3MTE calls: 🖕

TraditionalTurnip290

Puts on BX sound intriguing, anyone else doing this?

No_Zookeepergame_27

Why is BX beat up after good earnings?

Disastrous-Muffin743

Thank you BX you piece of shit, very nice of you.

alfred250

Ill give you tards 2 plays $RACE ATM NOV CALLS $BX ATM NOV CALLS

Much_Candle_942

You've shitCos like Zion and Texas capital here. Galaxy is 14B - twice in mkt cap of theirs 😢  It's no BX, but it's respectable.

exvertus

Demand. SOFR is still a market-set rate. It is generally not supposed to go above IORB for long, because when it does banks can arbitrage them back to parity, so IORB is considered a ceiling. SOFR spikes above IORB when there is high demand for cash or collateral. SOFR has been going above IORB at quarter ends for "window-dressing"---essentially everyone trying to get a good balance sheet snapshot for their 10-Qs. The spike in mid-Sept was to pay corporate taxes. But now? There is no obvious innocuous explanation, so it's probably related to regional banks and private credit: JEF, FITB, ZION, WAL, OWL, KKR, BX, etc.

WickedSensitiveCrew

PE firms like BX, APO, KKR, and ARE ripping today all of them still well off their 52 week highs.

gggg500

OP if it makes you feel any better I lost 90% of my wealth in 2008-2009. I was in high school and saved $13k from selling candy and having part time jobs. I invested into two stocks ACAS - American Capital Strategies a mezzanine financing company that lended money to various small/midsized businesses (roughly $10-$100 million in assets) and based out of Bethesda Maryland and EXM - Excel Maritime Carriers a dry bulk ocean shipping company based out of Greece (the country). Both proceeded to shit the bed. You have to diversify and buy lots of different companies. Maybe try buying SPY. If not you have to start investing for the long term into some safer companies like: CAT, CSX, ORCL, BX, MCD. Here are a few more: MSFT, XOM, PEP, BK, and RSG. Good luck, you can recover from your losses. If nothing else, just buy SPY (the entire S&P 500), and never sell, no matter what. Set it to dividend reinvest.

dvdmovie1

BDCs have been getting heavily sold off after the First Brands bankruptcy and worries there will be more to come with private credit. BX/KKR/APO also not having a good month either.

95Daphne

The next move higher will just be vol crush related and it will be everything instead of just AI like what we were flirting with this week until today’s tape bomb. Not sure when it’ll be, could be next week for all I know as you have to remember the Trump cycle. But some of the names (it’s surprising the SPX equal weight has held well) ex tech that have been getting sold suggest potential consumer worries (don’t have all the names off the top of my head, but LOW is one) and BX plus others in financials suggest that something is going on.

lobster-3

!banbet BX 165 8d

ColinRobinson__

Tis the szn next $fartcoin $troll $retire $forever 64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump https://pump.fun/coin/64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump

ColinRobinson__

Tis the szn next $fartcoin $troll $retire $forever 64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump https://pump.fun/coin/64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump

ColinRobinson__

Tis the szn next $fartcoin $troll $retire $forever 64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump https://pump.fun/coin/64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump

ColinRobinson__

Tis the szn next $fartcoin $troll $retire $forever 64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump https://pump.fun/coin/64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump

ColinRobinson__

Tis the szn next $fartcoin $troll $retire $forever 64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump https://pump.fun/coin/64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump

ColinRobinson__

Tis the szn next $fartcoin $troll $retire $forever 64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump https://pump.fun/coin/64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump

ColinRobinson__

Tis the szn next $fartcoin $troll $retire $forever 64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump https://pump.fun/coin/64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump

ColinRobinson__

Tis the szn next $fartcoin $troll $retire $forever 64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump https://pump.fun/coin/64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump

ColinRobinson__

Tis the szn next $fartcoin $troll $retire $forever $jewcoin 64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump https://pump.fun/coin/64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump

ColinRobinson__

Tis the szn next $fartcoin $troll $retire $forever $jewcoin 64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump https://pump.fun/coin/64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump

ColinRobinson__

Tis the szn next $fartcoin $troll $retire $forever $jewcoin 64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump https://pump.fun/coin/64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump

ColinRobinson__

Tis the szn next $fartcoin $troll $retire $forever $jewcoin 64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump https://pump.fun/coin/64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump

ColinRobinson__

Tis the szn next $fartcoin $troll $retire $forever $jewcoin 64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump https://pump.fun/coin/64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump

ColinRobinson__

Tis the szn next $fartcoin $troll $retire $forever $jewcoin 64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump https://pump.fun/coin/64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump

ColinRobinson__

Tis the szn next $fartcoin $troll $retire $forever $jewcoin 64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump https://pump.fun/coin/64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump

ColinRobinson__

Tis the szn next $fartcoin $troll $retire $forever $jewcoin 64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump https://pump.fun/coin/64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump

ColinRobinson__

Tis the szn next $fartcoin $troll $retire $forever $jewcoin 64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump https://pump.fun/coin/64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump

ColinRobinson__

Tis the szn next $fartcoin $troll $retire $forever $jewcoin 64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump https://pump.fun/coin/64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump

ColinRobinson__

Tis the szn next $fartcoin $troll $retire $forever $jewcoin 64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump https://pump.fun/coin/64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump

ColinRobinson__

Tis the szn next $fartcoin $troll $retire $forever $jewcoin 64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump https://pump.fun/coin/64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump

ColinRobinson__

Tis the szn next $fartcoin $troll $retire $forever $jewcoin 64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump https://pump.fun/coin/64BX1uPFBZnNmEZ9USV1NA2q2SoeJEKZF2hu7cB6pump

Ok_Ground9015

You already know. 

Terrigible

>That’s PFOF you dunce. Not a single exchange is listed on that document 🤦‍♂️ Exactly, which is how Tastytrade routes their orders. Go read up on what a 606 report is. >CBOE, NYSE, ARCA, PHLX - those are exchanges you regard. I know. And I can list all of them: * BOX Exchange LLC * Cboe Exchange, Inc. * Cboe BZX Options Exchange * Cboe C2 Exchange, Inc. * Cboe EDGX Options Exchange * MEMX LLC * MIAX Options Exchange * MIAX Emerald, LLC * MIAX PEARL, LLC * MIAX SAPPHIRE, LLC * Nasdaq BX Options * Nasdaq GEMX * Nasdaq ISE * Nasdaq MRX * Nasdaq Options Market * Nasdaq PHLX LLC * NYSE American Options * NYSE Arca Options > You just shared a doc that lists all the hedge funds that front run your orders 😂 Tastytrade's orders*

XorAndNot

Why's BX dying

Throwing_Horns

That podcast ["The Katie Miller Show" which aired the Mike Tyson interview recently follows up with a Pam Bondi interview.](https://youtu.be/4LRPHxSrLTE?si=BX4talexElwmSqzp) ^(Haven't had time to listen yet. Probably just coincidence that she's following the Tyson interview with Bondi on the very next show. Just a coincidence.)

Cormano_Wild_219

Imagine its BX that’s buying after saying no thanks in July. Pulled a sneaky on us all

archetypologist

+21% since '24 is just ok. Coulda been +40%. I do a mix of VGT, BX, VOO.

WickedSensitiveCrew

When the IPO market is hot, the consistent way to play it is through the investment banks and underwriters – Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), JPMorgan (JPM), etc. They earn fees every time they bring a company public, so they’re the real picks-and-shovels of IPO activity. You could also include the exchanges (Nasdaq: NDAQ, NYSE/ICE) since they benefit from listings and higher trading volumes. BX and APO are in a different lane. They can benefit indirectly if their portfolio companies IPO successfully, but that’s lumpy and depends on timing. Their earnings are driven more by fundraising cycles, deal activity, and asset valuations than by whether the IPO calendar is hot in general.

blueprint_01

BX - Blackstone - 172% up

blueprint_01

BX - Blackstone - || || |\+172.83%|

decomposition_

The good ol BX

No_Zookeepergame_27

Why is APO lagging behind BX and KKR?

Bluesquare9

I’ve seen lots of hype as to earnings but no evidence that they’ll be positive. Are they expected to be? It does seem as though BX004 has shown positive results so far. I’m long btw.

Scary-Ad5384

Biggest hurdle I hear is fear of getting sued. What’s wrong with this story. That said I own BX and APO

solipsistian

$BX bet on the smartest guys in the room

MaybeMalaka

APO is valued at at 20ish PE well it's competitors BX and KKR are at a 50+ PE all three are in private equity. Mainly due to a valuation based on Athena being an insurance provider but they just agreed to take majority control of Stream Data Centers and if they start getting a tech multiple you could see some jaw dropping growth from a mid cap, mix in the rate cuts that are coming and just generally being a profitable powerhouse could see a very strong quarter playing catch up to the general market.

Hot-Pop-3250

I wanted to get puts for BX but for different reasons

Pink_Squadron_Medic

AIPAC and BX buying all the real estate 

Initial_Ad_9250

Puts on BX

Pink_Squadron_Medic

AIPAC planning to go to war after the BX event 

Pink_Squadron_Medic

BX priced in the shooting

No_Zookeepergame_27

Why is APO lagging KKR & BX too much?

Hour-Trifle-8180

BX

DrHarrisonLawrence

For BX what % of their assets are in residential real estate?

StretchSufficient

Long: TT as it's getting hotter and colder Short: BX as we all need places to live (apartment play)

WickedSensitiveCrew

$BX Q2 Earnings Recap - EPS: $1.21 vs. $1.10 est. — beat by $0.11 ✅ - Revenue: $3.71B vs. $2.81B est. — beat by $900M ✅ - Revenue grew 33% YoY on strong performance across business lines Assets & Capital Activity - Total AUM: $1.21T (+13% YoY) - Fee-Earning AUM: $887.1B - Perpetual Capital AUM: $484.6B - Inflows: $52.1B for the quarter, $211.8B over LTM 💼 - Deployments: $33.1B (Q2), $145.1B (LTM) 🚀 - Realizations: $23.4B (Q2), $97.5B (LTM) 🏁 - Net accrued performance fees: $6.6B or $5.37/share 💹 Shareholder Return - Declared $1.03/share dividend payable August 11, 2025 💵 - Blackstone COO says we have the largest forward IPO pipeline since 2021

WickedSensitiveCrew

My comment was in relation to BX earnings today. I just realized this sub/thread didnt even discuss it so will make a separate comment for that.

WickedSensitiveCrew

APO,KKR, BX, and other PE firms looks like they bottomed in April 2025. Glad I bought in that panic.

trump_supportr

BX BABY!!!!! The true one and ONLY!!!

TutorCorrect3471

DNUT continued hypothesis; 1. Trades at a massive discount to peers, which is expected w the debt load and suspended guidance but they’ve taken serious steps ($44M in liabilities paid down, restructuring leadership, discontinuing low ROI channels like McDs) the discount is extreme.. like potential BX 2. Even for the memers, it’s a sub $1b market cap, heavily shorted with like 6 days to cover (4M volume 24M shares sold short) 3. Earnings will be a proving point in one direction hard for sure

TutorCorrect3471

What I’m saying… 1. Trades at a massive discount to peers, which is expected w the debt load and suspended guidance but they’ve taken serious steps ($44M in liabilities paid down, restructuring leadership, discontinuing low ROI channels like McDs) the discount is extreme.. like potential BX 2. Even for the memers, it’s a sub $1b market cap, heavily shorted with like 6 days to cover (4M volume 24M shares sold short) 3. Earnings will be a proving point in one direction hard for sure

Hour-Trifle-8180

!p BX

Fishing-for-stuff

I buy atm or just itm a month+ out and trade the position from there. Example - Monday last week bought BX 160 8/15’s when stock was 161. Went down after I bought (as usual), averaged down a bit and rode up as stock went through 171 and got the hell out by Thursday.

Hour-Trifle-8180

!banbet BX 174.25 149h

dvdmovie1

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/schedule-k-1.asp A lot of pipeline cos are still partnerships, as are a lot of the commodity futures/vix etfs. The private equity cos (BX,KKR, etc) used to be structured as partnerships. Owning these things - even if for a day - will result in a k-1.

AlfrescoDog

🖊️ There's an executive order to make private investments available in 401K plans. If you're looking for a long-term position trade, I would review BX, APO, KKR, and ARES to benefit. However, I suggest waiting until after August 1 to get a better sense.

HugelyIndecisive

Depends on the PE firm in question. There are a few that are publicly traded. Carlyle Group (CG), KKR, Blackstone Inc (BX) to name a few that are publicly traded. Most of them you have to file an additional Schedule K-1 with your taxes as they are a Limited Partnership. KKR does not have the Schedule K-1 requirement. I remember when this was approved and announced. It was a huge deal that they were the first and perhaps the only still that doesn’t have you have to file that Schedule K with your taxes. You can even correlate that event on their stock chart and see how the price went higher.

HugelyIndecisive

OP, don’t listen to these fools. 💯 Not true, Carlyle Group (CG), KKR, Blackstone Inc (BX) to name a few that are publicly traded. Most of them you have to file an additional Schedule K-1 with your taxes as they are a Limited Partnership. KKR does not have the Schedule K-1 requirement. I remember when this was approved and announced. It was a huge deal that they were the first and perhaps the only still that doesn’t have you have to file that Schedule K with your taxes. You can even correlate that event on their stock chart and see how the price went higher.

Venice_LA

TRUMP SET TO SIGN ORDER OPENING UP 401(K)S TO PRIVATE MARKETS: WSJ wowwww. The holy grail for PE firms. KKR APO BX

rebeccazone

Blackstone (BX)?

Straight_Turnip7056

Just re-watched "The Big Short". We are not in early 2007 yet housing-wise, but consumer credit is sure going downhill, and Apollo, KKRs, BX are legit selling bundled **PRIVATE CREDIT** to pension funds. May be this has another 12-18 months of steam left, but gonna collapse someday. Enjoy your 0dte scalping until then!

Extra-Ad-1513

Pulled 275k at the end of 2024. Have put about 35k back in to VTI/SCHG/VGT/VIG/BX/IBIT. Will just keep bolstering those positions like a motherfucker when I see red.

John_Galtt

Googl, Amzn, Tsla, RDDT, BROS, Cost, PM, Axon, AWK, Blackrock or BX

alfred250

I have 345 BX July 170 calls, Average Cost of 1$, position is now too big and illiquid after averaging down. I am currently fuk, but the sun is shining and everything else is pretty chill.

SuperNewk

UNH being sold to BX or Apollo for sub 10-15 a share would be money in the bank for private equity!

alfred250

Threw 40k in BX calls at close, it we rip tomorrow, u/EnginrA & I are having an extremely heterosexual and respectful party with NO cocaine at the Wynn vegas this weekend. All are welcome

The_real_Covfefe-19

Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene also recently made the following trade(s): * Purchased $1,001 – $15,000 in shares of UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) on 5/16/2025. * Purchased $1,001 – $15,000 in shares of Impinj (NASDAQ:PI) on 5/14/2025. * Purchased $1,001 – $15,000 in shares of Corning (NYSE:GLW) on 5/14/2025. * Purchased $1,001 – $15,000 in shares of Cardinal Health (NYSE:CAH) on 5/14/2025. * Purchased $1,001 – $15,000 in shares of Chevron (NYSE:CVX) on 5/14/2025. * Purchased $15,001 – $50,000 in shares of UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) on 5/14/2025. * Purchased $1,001 – $15,000 in shares of Blackstone (NYSE:BX) on 5/14/2025. * Purchased $1,001 – $15,000 in shares of ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW) on 5/14/2025. * Purchased $1,001 – $15,000 in shares of Hershey (NYSE:HSY) on 5/14/2025. * Purchased $1,001 – $15,000 in shares of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) on 5/14/2025. The new insider trading queen is on the move!

scorchie

Why do you think the 10y is pushing \~5%? Too many companies are trying to issue bonds/notes simultaneously, with no credit risk takers on the other end... so yields must go up to compensate. unlike equities, debt trades based on fundamentals. my (real) money is on a combination of forced sales due to solvency (early 401k withdrawals skyrocketing already) and corp. bankruptcies (unh looking like the first unless a bank beats them to it). I'm also betting these "take privates" are gonna go tits up; banks can't fund them anymore (at least until they wipe out the '08 regulations for collateral reqs, lol), so other, bigger PE firms (APO/BX) are having to back them. What could possibly go wrong with an overvalued, insanely leveraged, and completely unregulated market like PE/PC/PRE setting their own marks and buying/selling deals from one another back and forth in perpetuity? I mean, just add more leverage with each transaction; boom, infinite money glitch, bitches. literally cannot go tits up

alfred250

steve schwarzman hanging out with Jensen and the Saudi’s makes me feel better about these BX calls

alfred250

I have 587 BX July 18th Calls, up 600% but the bid ask is as wide as a truck. I am now forced to hold for even more profit while delta ramps up. First world problem that i couldnt explain to 99% of people so im here with you boys. Only ones who ever get me 💗

WickedSensitiveCrew

Great day for the alternative investment asset management companies. KKR, APO, BX, etc all up a bit.

alfred250

I bought $40k of BX July 170 calls average $1, what are the odds of a six figure day tomorrow??

drillteam-six

The main difference to consider is that you buy shares of the investement manager company BX, not a fund like VOO

scorchie

It is, but you gotta look at how big this bubble really is, and how few people there are left to baghold it. A few other interesting anecdotes for OP's thesis: 1.) [Buybacks ](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-06/corporate-america-plans-record-stock-buybacks-as-turmoil-mounts)are at an ATH. Why? Juice prices before insiders dump. 2.) There is a $17T crisis in private markets (equity, credit, real estate) where assets are already getting marked down 70 cents, and appear headed below 50... now, ***all of this is leveraged***, so all these "PE" deals you see coming across? yeah, banks can't fund them... so APO/BX yolo'ing out of inspiration. They're also restructuring existing deals at a record pace... [into tiers 90/70/30 ](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-05-08/private-equity-firms-send-some-lenders-to-the-back-of-the-queue)recovery.... guess which ones they're trying to shovel in your [401k](https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/05/private-equity-is-coming-to-a-401k-plan-near-you/)? See [this](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-19/private-credit-looks-to-consumers-infrastructure-for-next-stage) and [this ](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-08/private-credit-eyes-22-trillion-total-credit-pie-barclays-says)for a look at the bigger PC picture. 3.) The liquidity bomb. If you listen to Bessent, he's constantly telling on himself. He literally cannot stop. After that secret meeting with the big banks in the IMF interview dude mentioned private credit 5 times... and no one even fucking asked. Now he's reportedly talking about replacing foreign held t-bills with some 100y note shit to firms/inside the admi, and publicly (to the media) talking about "systemic credit risk" in the USDt.... like, WHAT. THE. FUCK? You're saying risk-free assets have systemic risk.... because if Japan / EU / China starts unloading usdt that the Fed can't absorb... I don't know that "fucked" does us justice in this situation. So, to recap: the majority (owners) equity owners want to shift as much of that shit off as possible to minory (retail), that latest rip was MM's rotating exposure w/ retail buying in out of FOMO, and you have "managed" advisors (this includes: mutual funds/target dates) buying up the shit assets as fast as the banks can package them.... and they are running out of time, because there's, at least, three systematic risks at play that could bring it all down, any time: corp real estate refis/banks capatulating starting at regional level w/ business defaults (9 so far this month, 7 in april), PC defaults (btw, fitch casually updated the projected syndicated loan default rate for 2025 to.... 8-10% this week.. 4.4-5% was covid high), and the apparent "credit risk" in our tressuries.... everything feels fucked, because it is. we're built to run on debt from the top down, and mba q/q leadership leaves absolutely zero padding for a rainy day, let alone a fucking flood. if you're still long in this market (if not net short, at least fucking cash), you need your head examined.

WickedSensitiveCrew

PE firms like APO, KKR, and BX still well off their ATHs been adding to those. Homebuilding segment and healthcare two other sectors that still havent fully recovered in the midst of the tech rally.

acrossthepondfriend

GOOG 20% BRK.B 10% KKR 10% BX 10% APO 10% BAM 10% WM 10% META 10% MSFT 10% thoughts? I cannot buy an ETF unfortunately due to EU regulations

scorchie

I’m not going to post my core shorts for 2 reasons: 1.) they’d look absolutely degenerate if you don’t fully buy into my thesis, so you’d lack the conviction to hold (some 5s rated funds, safe haven’s, etc) and 2.) I bought them cheap in march, they’re expensive now and tbh.:. i’m not confident they’ll payout even if I’m right at this point, fraud is rampant. XLRE/XLF/XRT naked short, regional banks (IAT/KRE), holding companies (BX/ARCC/etc.)… tbh, open the prospects for SCHD, or similar… they’re full of shit co’s I expect to default. Others would take too much explanation, and if you hood a similar belief you’re already most likely in them. dyor, not advice, but enough people upvote I figured I’d throw a bone… but I must emphasize: you need convection in the underlying structural thesis rooted in the credit markets, or else you’ll paper hand these and lose. if it was easy, everyone would be in it. Whatever you do, stay safe.

scorchie

Ok, but here is the thing.... all the private risk is held AT THE TOP: billionaires and the most prominent institutions. Look at endowments.... they sold all their liquid holdings to go all in on privates. Most wealthy people are in the same asset allocation strategy in private markets. The risk to their net worth is in the devaluation of these privates, not their public equity holdings. This would also trigger a crisis that would put the GFC to shame in terms of structural risk. This is trillions of dollars that are overvalued, illiquid, and unregulated. Clearly, there is distress, as shown by APO/BX/Shaw stepping in to help, as wiping out all the banks is not in anyone's best interest. It still doesn't change the fact that SOMEONE will hold these losses... and it will not be the 0.1%.

scorchie

I'm of the growing opinion that MMs are manipulating it so there isn't a considerable drawdown, which would spook "normal" investors into cash. They can't allow this for a few reasons: 1. Panic selling triggers a crash. No institution was positioned for the 10% drop from initial tariffs—Jane St. had to take out a term loan last week. Now, bid/ask spreads on everything are insane—thousands on each side at every single price point. Every intraday "dip" over 40bps is immediately bought into a reversal. 1. On this point, realized vol > implied vol.... Does a negative GDP print, empty ports, mass layoffs, rising withdrawals from 401ks (all documented, Google), and absolute chaos about anything, even near or mid-term.... Does VIX @ 25 seem optimistic here? Those dip buyers look more concerned about keeping VIX low than their DCA, lmao. 1. There is a massive disconnect from basic data points, such as foreign capital having fled US markets by 15%+ over the past few weeks (Google, a lot of coverage). So, where is that capital outflow being reflected in prices? It isn't. The outflows are documented, but where is their market reflection? 1. Privates (equity, credit, real estate) are distressed due to rising default rates and forced liquidations by endowments. It's so bad that [APO/BX/CG/ARCC](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-30/apollo-carlyle-buy-first-srt-tied-to-loans-to-private-debt-bdcs) and [D.E. Shaw](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-01/d-e-shaw-raises-1-3-billion-for-fund-targeting-risk-transfers) are raising capital for SRTs. This can't possibly be interpreted as anything other than banks being in serious trouble. Are those car loans and credit card balances with record missed payments [starting to catch up](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-01/rent-the-balance-sheet-banks-seek-ways-to-skirt-capital-rules)? Meanwhile, DFS/COF at ATHs....k. 1. You have a syndicated leveraged loan market - private loans held @ 50:1 [leveraged CLOs](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-14/clo-market-poised-to-freeze-raising-risk-to-us-leveraged-loans), with a default rate of \~5.6% in Dec'24 (COVID low was \~4.4% for reference), showing further [record distress](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-14/clo-market-poised-to-freeze-raising-risk-to-us-leveraged-loans) in April. Managers of these assets “print and sprint” the non-securitized/warehouse secondaries they hold because AAA traded below 1:1. Totes normal. 1. It is not getting enough coverage, but [Endowments ](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harvard-university-exploring-1-billion-private-equity-stakes-sale-bloomberg-news-2025-04-24/)are forced to sell PE holdings due to Trump's tax threats. This is not getting the coverage it deserves because it will force liquidity and price discovery events to cascade across the private markets. So the.... you'd think, bad news listed above.... not priced in? Absolutely none of it? OK... let me continue.

scorchie

Tin foil hat, I know... but here me out: I'm of the growing opinion that MMs are manipulating it so there isn't a considerable drawdown, which would spook "normal" investors into cash. They can't allow this for a few reasons: 1. Panic selling triggers a crash. No institution was positioned for the 10% drop from initial tariffs—Jane St. had to take out a term loan last week. Now, bid/ask spreads on everything are insane—thousands on each side at every single price point. Every intraday "dip" over 40bps is immediately bought into a reversal. 1. On this point, realized vol > implied vol.... Does a negative GDP print, empty ports, mass layoffs, rising withdrawals from 401ks (all documented, Google), and absolute chaos about anything, even near or mid-term.... Does VIX @ 25 seem optimistic here? Those dip buyers look more concerned about keeping VIX low than their DCA, lmao. 2. There is a huge disconnect from basic data points, such as foreign capital having fled US markets by 15%+ over the past few weeks (Google, a lot of coverage). So, where is that capital outflow being reflected in prices? It isn't. The outflows are documented, but the market reflection of them... where? 3. Privates (equity, credit, real estate) are distressed due to rising default rates and forced liquidations by endowments. It's so bad that [APO/BX/CG/ARCC](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-30/apollo-carlyle-buy-first-srt-tied-to-loans-to-private-debt-bdcs) and [D.E. Shaw](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-01/d-e-shaw-raises-1-3-billion-for-fund-targeting-risk-transfers) are raising capital for SRTs. This can't possibly be interpreted as anything other than banks being in serious trouble. Are those car loans and credit card balances with record missed payments [starting to catch up](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-01/rent-the-balance-sheet-banks-seek-ways-to-skirt-capital-rules)? Meanwhile, DFS/COF at ATHs....k. 4. You have a syndicated leveraged loan market - private loans held @ 50:1 [leveraged CLOs](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-14/clo-market-poised-to-freeze-raising-risk-to-us-leveraged-loans), with a default rate of \~5.6% in Dec'24 (COVID low was \~4.4% for reference), showing further [record distress](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-14/clo-market-poised-to-freeze-raising-risk-to-us-leveraged-loans) in April. Managers of these assets “print and sprint” the non-securitized/warehouse secondaries they hold because AAA traded below 1:1. Totes normal. 5. It is not getting enough coverage, but [Endowments ](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harvard-university-exploring-1-billion-private-equity-stakes-sale-bloomberg-news-2025-04-24/)are forced to sell PE holdings due to Trump's tax threats. This is not getting the coverage it deserves because it will force liquidity and price discovery events to cascade across the private markets.

ImgursHowUnfortunate

BX