BX

d33p7r0ubl3

What’s the deal with RACE? Everybody has been talking about Ferrari lately. BX seems to be hit hard due to the private credit fiasco going on.

alfred250

This is just stock, options wise i have about 100k in RACE calls and 100k in BX Calls🫡 mostly May expiry https://preview.redd.it/bm5rcw2myusg1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cdd4565b5f1f594f4adcef1755e376b64ee1968a

ricktitball2

Bro you’re a few weeks late tot his party. Along with Iran this was the sell side narrative for the past few weeks. But then, just yesterday, JPOW said there is no broader contagion concerns stemming from private credit. So…. He’s usually right, and if he isn’t he can very easily fix it. Give it another week and it will be a great time to buy. An especially great time to buy BX and BLK, and OWL

HandsomeTar

Just put my dry powder in SPY, BX, and RDDT. Let’s fucking pahmp

poorat8686

Last year banks like BX and ARES all shit the bed and bounced to ATH, do they do it again or what?

Boomer_With_Dementia

I bought Blackstone BX puts a week ago, I dunno I thought private credit news might hurt their stock price, and I thought oil crisis might also hurt their stock. If the market goes up, then I move more $$ from stock to cash. If market is down.. I might buy something. I feel like short term, there is likely going to be a disaster and everything goes down, I still don't understand exactly how that works, but it is what seems to happen. So maybe switch to cash. I feel like long term defense stocks go up, global defense stocks go up like nobody has ever seen before. Wether that is UP from current price, or UP from whenever the falling knife kills the bouncing cat, I don't know. Oh and also gold goes up as central banks rage buy gold and rage sell US treasuries. Not Financial Advise, Not event a coherent plan, just some random thoughts.

dqdg

AI: * Secondary discounts widening (<85%) * BDC NAVs dropping * BX / KKR / APO selling off hard * Real estate marks catching down

Amsnyc007

I’ve spent about 10% of my avail cash on the mag 7s, sofi, Reddit, Palantir (low 130s), BX, SYM. I’ll be a bigger buyer if SPY sells off more

RamBamBooey

Puts on $BX and $BRK

makeammends

BX showing signs of life. $112 today, down from 190.

makeammends

BX starting to wake up from its extended slumber. Opinions? -27% ytd. I bought some shares the other day.

JDsWetDream

This is so stupid . The gates on private credit funds are fully disclosed and there for a reason. Maybe people should read and understand the prospectus? You can’t invest in an illiquid instrument and then panic when you can’t get your money out. IMO this is a screaming buy opportunity for the alt asset managers like APO and BX

GlumTopic2026

Top 5 picks ORCL, PYPL, SOXL, BX, MSTR

persua

APO isn't that heavy in software and are absolute killers. BX is also solid. I initiated positions in both last week.

ai-moderator

#TLDR --- **Ticker:** BX **Direction:** Up **Prognosis:** Buy Shares and $120 Calls **Summary:** Stop shorting private credit just because tech equity valuations are taking a hit. Private credit lenders get paid from cash flow (which is stable), not VC fantasy valuations. Furthermore, Blackstone's fund structure literally prevents bank runs. **Friendly Reminder:** Blackstone is not BlackRock, you regards.

ai-moderator

#TLDR --- **Ticker:** BX **Direction:** Up **Prognosis:** Buy Shares & $120 Calls **Fact Check:** Blackstone is NOT BlackRock. **Why shorts are cooked:** You are confusing equity risk with credit risk. Debt is paid by cash flow, not software valuations. BX is structurally protected, has zero bank-run risk, and prints money while bears cry about tech valuations.

Asleep_Emphasis69

the big boy Alt asset managers are trading for like 0.5 PEG ratio which hasn’t been the case since covid times…Oversold $BX $KKR $BAM $APO

Coloradodreaming1

Software has sucked big time. Financials too, especially the private equity companies like KKR, APO, ARES, BLK, BX. Man they look like buys at 40% or the like down YTD and they pay dividends if I could just go against my instinct that these company stocks are falling knives.

Available-Range-5341

Why do some commenters here want a crash so bad. We've had three crashes and one correction in six years + multiple sector crashes. Buy CRM, MSFT, ADP, AXP, and BX if you want a crash. HD was in a crash briefly yesterday too If you can find reasons why you don't want to buy those right now, then you don't truly want a crash because you will find excuses not to buy good companies raking in cash when it actually happens

alfred250

Long story short go 3-6 months out, go best in breed, BX, KKR, Apollo. I dont even think a bailout is necessary, this is very overblown. DM me and i will send you my DD

ai-moderator

#TLDR --- Ticker: BX Direction: Up Prognosis: Buy Shares & $120 Calls Thesis: Doomers are mixing up equity risk with credit risk. Private credit gets paid from cash flow, not falling software valuations. Blackstone sits at the top of the capital stack, has massive scale to absorb liquidity issues, and is structured in a way that makes a bank-style run literally impossible. Public Service Announcement: Blackstone is NOT BlackRock. Stop mixing them up, you degenerates. Flex: OP made $500k on their last DD, so you better listen.

Available-Range-5341

BX/Blackstone below i's 50 week moving average for the first time basically ever. Bounced off it at the end of the 2022 crash. Either we're in a 2008, or this is a sign of a massive buying opportunity. I think sentiment is too bearish. People heard about BLK writing down a 25M loan out of nowhere and are spooked. Makes sense. But now it's getting priced in. Everyone think that is a sign their entire portfolios are garbage, but we've been getting stories like this for years, and the media usually didn't care about them or called them bear porn

Available-Range-5341

100% the issue of NVDA being shoved into everything. Trying to reallocate my Voya account from cash and every fucking fund does nothing because they are all NVDA NVDA NVDA. There have been decent rolling corrections for years. Currently, HD is down 11% and hitting a point it usually bounces from. BX is down 35% from it's Jan high. BLK is now in a crash. AXP is in a crash and MA and V are down 13%

Available-Range-5341

I think now is a good time to buy CRM, MSFT, AMT, HD, BX, and PG. Maybe ES. BX may be a bit controversial, but the rest are good AND all dipped a bit so you're getting a bit of a sale, which is why I recommend them. MMM and CLX are in dips after recent rallies so might be good to I'm assuming you're saying you don't care about the next ten years but I am sure at some level, you'd be pissed if you lost $ tomorrow, hence I recommend things already down but with good earnings Actually making this list I realized credit card stocks are way down too, maybe AXP is a buy?

danieldeubank

The recent moves by BlackRock (early March 2026) and now Morgan Stanley (March 11, 2026) to impose or tighten redemption limits on flagship private credit funds highlight growing liquidity stress in the $1.8–2 trillion private credit sector. This isn't isolated—it's part of a broader wave of investor anxiety, redemption surges, and structural mismatches in semi-liquid/open-ended private credit vehicles (e.g., non-traded BDCs and evergreen funds).BlackRock (HPS Corporate Lending Fund / HLEND) * What happened: Investors requested 9.3% redemptions ($1.2B) in Q1 2026; BlackRock enforced the standard 5% quarterly cap, paying out only \~$620M (per fund letter and Reuters/Bloomberg reports). * Why: First time HLEND (acquired via 2024 HPS deal) has gated since inception. Reflects broader unease over lending standards, software/AI exposure risks, and illiquidity in private credit. * Market reaction: BLK shares fell \~7–8% on the news (late morning March 6), contributing to a weak start for 2026 among alt managers. Morgan Stanley (North Haven Private Income Fund or similar) * What happened: Investors sought to redeem \~11% of shares outstanding; MS restricted redemptions (likely to 5% or similar cap), returning far less than requested (filing showed partial payouts). * Why: Echoes the same redemption pressure seen at BlackRock, Blackstone (BCRED raised cap to 7% after 7.9% requests + internal cash injection), Blue Owl (halted some redemptions), and others. * Context: MS private credit funds (part of MSIM's alternatives platform) face the same illiquidity mismatch: quarterly liquidity promises vs. long-duration, hard-to-sell loans. Broader Implications & Analysis * Structural problem: Private credit funds (especially retail-accessible BDCs) offer periodic redemptions (often 5% quarterly) to attract wealth investors, but underlying assets are illiquid. When requests exceed caps, managers gate to avoid forced sales at discounts → protects remaining investors but erodes confidence. * Why now?: * Rising defaults/restructurings (PIK interest, software sector stress from AI disruption). * Geopolitical/macro fears (Iran war → oil spikes → inflation/stagflation → Fed paralysis → higher borrowing costs). * Retail/wealth outflows: Wealth platforms pulled back after high-profile issues (e.g., First Brands/Tricolor bankruptcies). * Sector contagion risk: Gates at big names (BlackRock, MS) can trigger more redemptions elsewhere (fear of missing liquidity window). Could pressure asset prices, widen spreads, and slow new commitments. * Critical minerals tie-in: Private credit funds often finance mining/exploration (e.g., juniors in rare earths/scandium like NioCorp/IBC peers). Tighter liquidity → less capital for projects → delays in domestic supply chains (e.g., Elk Creek, Araxá analogs). Positive side: forced discipline may favor stronger balance sheets and proven projects. Bottom LineThis is a classic liquidity crunch moment in private credit—not a systemic crisis yet, but a warning sign. Gates protect funds short-term but can accelerate outflows if trust erodes. Watch for: * More managers following (e.g., Blackstone/Blue Owl updates). * Impact on alt manager stocks (BLK, MS, BX, OWL down sharply). * Potential Fed/SEC scrutiny on semi-liquid structures.

Available-Range-5341

Thanks for this post.  We really need some bearish sentiment because BX and BLk were doing so well 

Available-Range-5341

So I don't become the "guy who complains TSLA is up," we should start an inverse-me fund since I have a special ability to crash stocks. My recent accomplishments were CRM, MSFT and now STAG and BX. The big red candle literally occurred two seconds after my purchase occurred. If there are any put buyers interested in such a service:-)

AnimatorNaive1880

Crazy boring idea, go long on BX 109.10 in premarket. 

Nyczboy22

So many ill informed people surrounding private credit and evergreen funds. Default rates in middle market private credit, historically have been lower than BSL or HY. The asset class benefits from smaller club (lenders) that can work strategically with the portfolio company/sponsor should the business underperform. Gates and redemption limits are explicitly detailed in offering docs and investors sign up knowing very well they are buying into funds primarily invested in illiquid assets. I’m long BX, OWL, and ARCC. Those mgmt fees aren’t going away and the underlying collateral quality seems to still be sound. AI and software disruption is real - but definitely a bit overblown as it relates to many of the businesses these PC managers lended to.

Aggravating-Job-8100

it's hard to tell sarcasm from degen trader. But if you find it's too much upside can't help you with that 

OhtaniStanMan

Gonna buy into 300 shares of BX this morning if needed. At 200.  BX isn't going away and at price right now it's a 4.3% dividend. Ez long term

Odd_Papaya8305

Okay so monthly BX is still dark red meaning sellers still control and dying volume on NFLX

DiaBall

GE, BX, PFE, MO, T, VZ, PM, C ET KMI, etc.. 2008-2009 bought during the crash. Also MU at around $12. Power of compounding dividend drips is crazy lol

ThreeSupreme

Hmm... Guess U weren't around in 2008, huh? # No safety net: Why private credit faces it first real moment of truth **Provided by Dow Jones** \- Private credit is easy to enter but hard to exit. Retail investors suddenly seeking their money back could trigger a financial crisis. A spiral of illiquidity, forced selling, markdowns, and intense risk deleveraging could emerge. Sound familiar? It happened with securitization markets during the **2007-08 financial crisis**. The recent selloff of Blue Owl Capital's (OWL) stock after a redemption at one of its retail private-credit funds has become the poster child for increasing anxiety about the health of the private-credit market. Private credit has grown rapidly in recent years - approaching $2 trillion - and it has never been tested through a full recession or highly volatile financial-market stress. Private credit does not have the financial backstop of the U.S. Treasury or the Federal Reserve, unlike most banks. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently warned after a pair of private credit-backed companies declared bankruptcy that problems in private credit are rarely isolated. **Wall Street braces for a private credit meltdown** The fault line exposed now is that private credit is being offered to retail investors and wealthy individuals whose investment objectives are very different from sophisticated institutional investors. These new investors will quickly line up to get their money back, effectively forcing sales of illiquid assets, as in the case of Blue Owl. Shares of Blue Owl hit a 52-week low earlier this month, as did shares of Blackstone (BX). Other major firms including Carlyle Group (CG), KKR (KKR), Apollo Global Management (APO) and Ares Management (ARES) were also caught in the selloff. Private credit-related defaults, particularly among private equity-backed companies, have accelerated significantly in 2025 and early 2026. According to a March 6, 2026, report from Fitch Ratings, the U.S. Private Credit Default Rate hit a **record 9.2%** in 2025, following a previous record of 8.1% in 2024, with 38 defaults recorded among 28 different borrowers.  

WickedSensitiveCrew

APO, KKR and BX look interesting. Im leaning toward buying some APO. As they have been shifting their a lot of their AUM to perpetual capital.

redraiderlaw

Are we ready to buy the dip on BX yet or we think there is more value to squeeze before it rebounds?

OhtaniStanMan

BX looking chunky. Is Blackstone going to keep going down? LOL Sitting at a 4% divi right now at this price. That's better than CDs and longterm Blackstone going bankrupt? Lol

Available-Range-5341

It's not about "the market" because the "market" is now NVDA and AAPL. It's how horrible some individual stocks have done. Consumer staples were crashing like it was 2008 last year. Now stocks like MSFT, CRM, BX have/are

leomeng

Surprisingly I’ve been able to bail on CRM NOW BX KKR with very little damage in overnight. I bought all near the Friday close price. Would rather get a scrape wound now than risk crazy meltdown.

leomeng

Buying a bunch of GS BX

no_simpsons

I can tell you the algo running the option chain on BX is an asshole. no opinion of the company or where it's headed.

stylesp11

does anybody have any opinion on Blackstone (BX)? they have been getting killed lately, and I feel like it would be a good long-term investment but what do you guys think?

IBangTokyoWife

I've always had trouble valuing private equity. I like BX KKR APO but their revenue and earnings are so dependent on them finding diamonds in the rough. Sometimes they get several all at once and sometimes they don't get any for a while. How do you determine when they're cheap or expensive? Recurring revenue is pretty low

KingRegardothe2nd

>Wall Street opened the week under heavy pressure as risk sentiment deteriorated on AI-related credit concerns and fresh trade uncertainty amid the feud between President Donald Trump and the Supreme Court. >The blue-chip index was weighed down by sharp losses in financial names. A wave of selling hit asset managers after concerns emerged around a private credit fund managed by Blue Owl Capital Inc. (NYSE:OWL). The firm announced it is liquidating $1.4 billion in assets to raise money to pay out individual investors Apollo Global Management Inc. (NYSE:APO) sank 6.6% on the day, marking its worst session since Liberation Day. Blackstone Inc. (NYSE:BX) slid 6.7% and has now dropped 16% over the past three sessions, its steepest three-day decline since March 2020, touching the lowest level since late 2023. Ares Management Corp. (NYSE:ARES) fell 6.3% KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE:KKR) tumbled 8.3%, extending its monthly loss to 20%, the worst stretch since 2015. The weakness spilled into established financial heavyweights. American Express (NYSE:AXP) dropped 7.4%, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) lost 3.5% and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) retreated 4.5%. For the broader Financials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLF) it’s the worst day since early April 2025.

alfred250

Buy $BX with both hand here u/EnginrA

akunisg

anyone know anything about BX? what the f is going on for the past two months

XorAndNot

Wth BX

BetweenCoffeeNSleep

Added BX 9/18 130 strike calls while the stock was in the high 127s. Also holding BX 9/18 135 strike calls, bought 2/4.

Virginia_Tesjan

BX - bought in 2014. Reinvested dividends beginning in 2016. Then again in 2024 thru 2025. Worth 5+ times what I paid. Annual dividend last year was 20% based on what I paid for the stock... Should have bought more, lol.

wallsallbrassbuttons

Blackstone ($BX). World’s largest private equity fund. Acts almost as an ETF in that it’s a conglomerate of stakes in other businesses. Heavy investment in energy, especially LNG. Exposure to real estate, some tech in companies like Bumble and Ancestry.com, brick and mortar businesses like Jersey Mike’s. Dividend is currently around 3.5% with some capital appreciation. I like the blend of income and exposure to businesses not covered in other indices. It’s my largest holding outside of said indices and is currently at attractive prices given 52 week trend. I just bought more last week. 

dvdmovie1

In the most significant scenario for AI, I tend to wonder whether there will be some degree of industrial area revitalization and deterioration of cities. Office values already cratered since 2020, but it seems like things have stabilized a bit recently. If AI continues to rapidly evolve, perhaps the decline starts up again - look at the NYC office reits like VNO and SLG falling below April 2025 lows lately. BXP close, but that's still well below 2020 highs. How much office exposure does BX - almost back to 2025 lows - have? Yet, industrial/warehouse REIT PLD is up 7.5% YTD.

BetweenCoffeeNSleep

BX increased their stake to $1B in the recent round.

BetweenCoffeeNSleep

What have you been looking at over the past few months? I took a break from the sub for a while. Haven’t kept up. I exited all picked stock positions last year, and stayed in index positions until putting on BX 135 strike 9/18 exp calls on 2/4.

BetweenCoffeeNSleep

I exited all individual stock positions last year and had been sitting in 50% SSO, 30% VOO, 20% VXUS (totals 130% S&P 500 exposure + 20% ex-U.S.). End of January, I moved 10% from SSO to cash in anticipation of some chop. Feb 3rd, I took a look at the BX skid. Good earnings, not ideal forward guidance, and pessimism around regulatory risk to residential real estate, some chatter about AI disruption to companies they’re exposed to, etc. The re-rating looked outsized, so I put on BX 135 strike 9/18 exp calls.

fumbler00ski

$BX

I-IV-I64-V-I

wow, look at the [Japanese](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/currency/usdjpy?mod=search_symbol) yen strengthening . and the[ japanese 10-year ](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Bond/TMBMKJP-10Y?countrycode=BX) is stabilizing a bit after that run-up

RolledForCredit

I’m buying some alts this morning (KKR, BX, ARES). I think this notion that “anthropic kills software therefore kills alt portfolios” is wayyy overdone. Everything I see shows that the SaaS cos are actually still doing just fine, they’ve just been de-rated. Falling valuations for software cos doesn’t necessarily mean falling revenues (at portcos), it just means that the market isn’t willing to pay as much for their earnings. One could argue that perhaps future growth rates or margins are overstated to the extent that vibe coded solutions make dents there , but that’s about it. So I don’t see massive defaults arising from this. I think this is especially true for things like cybersecurity; as if any real business would go with a vibe-coded solution over PANW or CRWD; lol. I'm regarded, so DYOR, but these are my thoughts.

Chocolay_Creek

Bought some BX after offloading it months ago. Waiting for RDDT to drop some more (hopefully). Eying MSFT around 385.

BetweenCoffeeNSleep

BX looks like it might be trying to put in a bottom. Valuation is a little above historical average. Decent earnings. Moving down on headwind speculation (AI disruption to companies they invest in, real estate restriction in the U.S., and real estate markets abroad, etc). Dividend increase implies internal confidence. I think BX goes above $135 by end of next week. Might move down a little further before then. I would expect an analyst counter-narrative vs the disruption speculation, and moves back in due to valuation relative to the broader market.

VOO_bull_forever

# My port: LVMH, IBIT, MSFT, AMZN, UNH, PYPL, BX # .... # # FUCK YOU

AlwaysSilencedTruth

https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Basics-Natural-All-Purpose-Clothesline/dp/B08HNZ8BX5? [https://www.amazon.com/AELS-Striped-Office-Chair-Computer/dp/B0F6TTLYDT](https://www.amazon.com/AELS-Striped-Office-Chair-Computer/dp/B0F6TTLYDT) you know what to do.

Flaky_Team_3540

BX, Blackstone is going to be a really good buy if it dips below 140. Their numbers are solid, only going up from there.

No_Zookeepergame_27

BX beat bigly and is not even moving. PEs are doomed.

Makemoney-101

Pyu Pyu Capital’s investment in BiomX (PHGE) centers on a strategic, high-conviction partnership aimed at stabilizing the company’s capital structure and advancing its lead clinical programs. 1. Active Governance & Oversight Unlike passive institutional investors, Pyu Pyu Capital has taken an active role in BiomX's leadership. As part of its investment, it appointed Reuven Yeganeh as a Class 1 director to the BiomX board on January 13, 2026. This move signals a strategy of "active stewardship"—frequently seen in firms that drive value by closely advising on governance and operational decisions. 2. Focus on the BX011 Program The investment proceeds are specifically earmarked to support BiomX's BX011 program, which targets Staphylococcus aureus infections in patients with diabetic foot infections (DFI). Pyu Pyu Capital is providing the necessary "patient capital" to navigate the regulatory pathway for this program after the company halted other trials in late 2025. 3. Long-Term Capital Appreciation By reporting a 19.99% stake via a 13D filing on January 26, 2026, Pyu Pyu Capital has positioned itself just below the 20% threshold that typically triggers more stringent regulatory requirements or "poison pill" provisions. This substantial stake indicates a "buy-and-hold" philosophy, betting on a massive recovery in share price from depressed levels—analysts currently project an upside of over 500% with a $26.00 price target. 4. Strategic Financial Structuring The investment was executed through a Series Y Convertible Preferred Stock arrangement. This structure benefits Pyu Pyu Capital by: Yielding 15% annual dividends, paid quarterly. Providing conversion rights into common stock, allowing them to capture significant gains if the stock price recovers. Issuing warrants for up to 3.3 million additional shares, further increasing their potential future ownership.

DiaBall

That's been a while. I read an article in the Kiplinger magazine and after a little research I bought MU. Did the same with BX but way before MU. Same entry point for both I just bought tons of BX wish I had bought the same amount of MU. I still bought several rounds. Just holding and dripping the dividends.

WuhansFirstVirus

Goal is $50K in capital gains for the year. Up $7K YTD. Thanks to $HD, $XOM, and $BX. Maybe purchase investment property.

iShitBloodandCumShit

AMH ripping BX lagging So much for those fucking short positions 😂

Key-Marionberry-8794

Spicy QQQ lol a little BX spice also ?

totallytopaz333

1. The $200 Billion "Mortgage Bazooka" Trump announced he is directing the federal government to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds. The Logic: By flooding the market with $200B in buying power for these bonds, the goal is to force mortgage rates down immediately. The $OPEN Connection: Opendoor's biggest enemy is high interest rates. Lower rates mean more people can afford to buy the houses Opendoor is currently holding, which speeds up their "flip" cycle and lowers their borrowing costs. 2. The "Institutional Ban" Twist In a classic "populist" move, Trump also proposed a ban on large institutional investors buying single-family homes. Wait, isn't that bad for $OPEN? You’d think so, but CEO Kaz Nejatian has been sprinting to the cameras to clarify: "We aren't institutional investors, we are a marketplace. We don't hold homes long-term; we help families buy them." * The Result: While institutional landlords like Blackstone ($BX) and Invitation Homes ($INVH) got crushed today (down 5-8%), $OPEN is being viewed as the "last man standing" that helps individuals buy homes. If the "Big Bad Wall Street Landlords" are banned, $OPEN becomes the primary way for people to move houses quickly. That's from Gemini

actuallyrealperson

Bet on it being all talk, calls on BX

DickiesDippinDicks

!banbet BX 170 1.5w

Paynefullll

$BX Leapz

Ok_Cry7572

9:30 AM ET today, when the US market opened, Blackstone's stock, $BX, began trading lower. This came even as the S&P 500 hit a new all time high at the open. By 10:35 AM ET, Blackstone's stock was down -4% without any material news. At 12:45 PM ET, President Trump announced a ban on institutional purchases of single-family homes. 5 minutes later, Blackstone's stock was down -9%, erasing -$17 BILLION in market cap on the day.

XorAndNot

BX should ramp up home building and lobby even more so any new law doesn't affect them.

lipmanz

Anyone pick up BX at 150?

Worried_Quarter469

I don’t see how BX can keep a p/e of 44 here, in for a put

torfman

Got into wheeling early this year. I’m trading account 4x yours and wouldn’t touch any of those, too expensive. If you get assigned on MSFT it’s your entire account. I’m trading Pypl, Tgt, Xom, BX, MGM, PEP, KO etc using TA. looking for premium OTM, 30-45 days, $100-$200 on companies I don’t mind getting “stuck” holding if trade goes wrong 1 cause I believe in them long term 2 cause they pay nice dividend if I have to hold them longer than expected. (just bonus). Sometimes I’ll just have couple trades going, sometimes I’ll have ten.

CallHerTrump

BX

eska089

I also thought about how I can financially profit from this development and I realized the smartest play is to buy the Casino, not the chips. If retail capital is flooding in to be the exit liquidity, the ones making the guaranteed money are the General Partners managing the funds. So instead of buying their semi-liquid products, I'm considering buying the stock of the firms themselves, like Blackstone (BX), KKR, or Apollo. At first I worried that if the AI/tech bubble bursts, these stocks would crash too. But then I looked at the data on "Fee-Related Earnings." Unlike a VC fund that needs a profitable exit to get paid, these firms charge management fees on committed capital. So even if the underlying assets drop 40% and they have to "gate" the retail fund to stop withdrawals, they still collect that 1-2% fee on the locked-in money for years. The casino gets paid even when the players are losing. Plus, their own exposure is totally different from what they sell. While they sell retail investors debt or equity in risky startups, the firms themselves are buying "picks and shovels", like physical data centers and energy infrastructure. That stuff retains value (at least parts of it) even if the AI software market implodes. It’s not risk-free, but it’s the difference between owning the car in the crash versus owning the insurance company. As long as this "democratization" trend continues, you basically become the owner of the house rather than the gambler at the table. But in the end, I still think I’ll sit this one out. It’s still a derivative bet on a bubble, and I’m not chasing profits within a bubble. My strategy is simple: sell into this liquidity, increase my cash position and wait for better valuations or new opportunities. Sometimes the best trade is doing nothing and wait. 😉

WickedSensitiveCrew

What is going on with PE firms like APO, KKR, OWL, and BX?

honey_102b

the executives have recognized that the less than stellar gross margins were a big reason for downward pressure on the stock price for many years. remember, MU was one of the last tech companies to join the AI stock pump. mind you, a margin of 30-40% today is great, but not so when SK Hynix is doing 40-50. so if you recall in Aug, MU exited the Mobile NAND market and laid off the entire China workforce in this category. this is the segment that supplied the likes of Huawei, Honor for many years under Sanjay until the Chinese were able to supply themselves via YMTC. this one was an easy cut. also around that period they looked at the NAND roadmap (all ssds) and prioritised releasing Enterprise NAND first. note that it is normal to release consumer first (lowest grade, imagine Crucial BX series), OEM mass market next (supply Dell, Lenovo and their own Crucial MX or P series etc), then mobile (supply phone companies) then enterprise (data centre SSDs) then finally automotive because of the increasing complexity demanded by these segments for what is essentially the same wafer that takes about a full year to reach maximum performance capability from their respective qualification runs. Mobile was already gone, and consumer and OEM was pushed to AFTER enterprise, so today's announcement was several months in the making. at the time I assumed the purpose was to get the first next gen enterprise SSD out before anyone else (2027 btw). but to drop the lower grade NAND like this suggests they are doing everything they can to make margins better next Earnings call. it does not automatically mean higher profits because stopping NAND does not make capacity for DRAM or HBM it's a different kind of factory. and a wafer that did not meet enterprise spec cannot just be sold as enterprise wafer today just because you decided to stop selling to consumer market. what they can do is sell the consumer wafer for a higher price to an enterprise SSD manufacturer who will do something to pass it off as the same. and of course MU's operating cost for the consumer business unit will go to zero. overall, it's a little more profit for MU NAND segment but a lot more operating margins. read...more EPS...more stock price. tldr executives are making a lot of tough decisions for the stock price. better believe it.long MU.

Huhuix

Yeah got GOOG, BRK and VTI as core holdings from a few years ago. Been doing well. But been adding a few financials, healthcare, and energy stalwarts in the Roth. BX, BLK, COR, MCK, V, JPM, ELV, ISRG, VDE

PriorCaseLaw

I bought that recently. Up 32%...I should have bought GS. BX has also been better than kkr.

WickedSensitiveCrew

Yeah, I was inspired by a GS or BX report. I forget which but they basically said the way to make money right now is to go where the money’s being spent. They highlighted two areas: weight loss drugs and data center buildouts. I get that some people don’t trust GS/BX and think they use retail as exit liquidity, but what they said about data center expansion outpacing new home construction made sense to me.

Puzzleheaded-One-607

Great numbers. No clue why it trades at such a discount to KKR and BX

Automatic-Acadia7785

I have a watchlist of stocks i named "Evil Corporation". Includes companies like BLK, BX, LMT, RTX, MS, JPM, GS, XOM, etc.  Performing second only to the tech watchlist 

Think_University6435


Disastrous-Muffin743

My SPY 2MTE calls: 🤝 My BX 3MTE calls: 🖕

TraditionalTurnip290

Puts on BX sound intriguing, anyone else doing this?

No_Zookeepergame_27

Why is BX beat up after good earnings?

Disastrous-Muffin743

Thank you BX you piece of shit, very nice of you.

alfred250

Ill give you tards 2 plays $RACE ATM NOV CALLS $BX ATM NOV CALLS

Much_Candle_942

You've shitCos like Zion and Texas capital here. Galaxy is 14B - twice in mkt cap of theirs 😢  It's no BX, but it's respectable.

exvertus

Demand. SOFR is still a market-set rate. It is generally not supposed to go above IORB for long, because when it does banks can arbitrage them back to parity, so IORB is considered a ceiling. SOFR spikes above IORB when there is high demand for cash or collateral. SOFR has been going above IORB at quarter ends for "window-dressing"---essentially everyone trying to get a good balance sheet snapshot for their 10-Qs. The spike in mid-Sept was to pay corporate taxes. But now? There is no obvious innocuous explanation, so it's probably related to regional banks and private credit: JEF, FITB, ZION, WAL, OWL, KKR, BX, etc.

WickedSensitiveCrew

PE firms like BX, APO, KKR, and ARE ripping today all of them still well off their 52 week highs.

gggg500

OP if it makes you feel any better I lost 90% of my wealth in 2008-2009. I was in high school and saved $13k from selling candy and having part time jobs. I invested into two stocks ACAS - American Capital Strategies a mezzanine financing company that lended money to various small/midsized businesses (roughly $10-$100 million in assets) and based out of Bethesda Maryland and EXM - Excel Maritime Carriers a dry bulk ocean shipping company based out of Greece (the country). Both proceeded to shit the bed. You have to diversify and buy lots of different companies. Maybe try buying SPY. If not you have to start investing for the long term into some safer companies like: CAT, CSX, ORCL, BX, MCD. Here are a few more: MSFT, XOM, PEP, BK, and RSG. Good luck, you can recover from your losses. If nothing else, just buy SPY (the entire S&P 500), and never sell, no matter what. Set it to dividend reinvest.

dvdmovie1

BDCs have been getting heavily sold off after the First Brands bankruptcy and worries there will be more to come with private credit. BX/KKR/APO also not having a good month either.

95Daphne

The next move higher will just be vol crush related and it will be everything instead of just AI like what we were flirting with this week until today’s tape bomb. Not sure when it’ll be, could be next week for all I know as you have to remember the Trump cycle. But some of the names (it’s surprising the SPX equal weight has held well) ex tech that have been getting sold suggest potential consumer worries (don’t have all the names off the top of my head, but LOW is one) and BX plus others in financials suggest that something is going on.

lobster-3

!banbet BX 165 8d

ColinRobinson__

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