Reddit Posts
Companies rush to bond market in record $150bn debt splurge.
Pre-earnings price movement, Oct 24th earnings reports, min +/-4% move
Natural gas price recovery: a tale of two tickers (AR and RRC)
PE Firm EQT To Buy Veterinary Drugmaker Dechra For $6B
PE Firm EQT To Buy Veterinary Drugmaker Dechra For $6B
2023-05-05 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of Gomez Addams
ENTERPRISE GROUP, INC. ANNOUNCES LETTER TO SHAREHOLDERS FROM PRESIDENT & CEO – LEONARD D. JAROSZUK (TSX: E, OTCQB: ETOLF)
Radius Global to be acquired by EQT fund, Canadian pension board at $3B enterprise value
Profiting from Natural Gas Prices falling below energy producers breakeven prices on February 17, 2023.
Profiting from Natural Gas Prices falling below energy producers breakeven prices on February 17, 2023.
EQT expects another year of flat production awaiting support for natgas prices (NYSE:EQT)
Close to Impossible for Natural Gas Prices to go much lower from here
2022-11-28 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
Street’s Favorite Stocks with a Century old
6 high-risk, high-reward stock bets with upside & 5 stock picks for the long-term: ($PINS $CRWD $EQT $UNH $ZS $VAL $OXY $ASND $AMT $BTU) DD
Aquisition play, Karo Pharma and EQT
$EQT - The play no one is talking about
$EQT - the play no one is talking about
nO tIme foR lOng Dd. LNG stock and why they may pop next week
Why Tesla will hit an unexpected "wall", and it has nothing to do with cars
Natural Gas Producers Aren’t the Best Way to Play Soaring Gas Prices. Look at Oil Producers Like Exxon, Royal Dutch, and Marathon Instead.
EQT settles first of many multi-million dollar case for stealing gas from land owners.
EQT settles first of my multi-million dollar case for sealing gas from land owners.
Need some good stock for a school project
Mentions
I work in the datacenter industry and have a good general knowledge of all of the companies involved in the space- investment, land, design & build, collocation, real estate, consulting, vendors/service providers including cooling, servers, racks, water treatment, power busway systems, physical security, cabling, backup generators, batteries, etc. Liquid immersion cooling has been talked about for a long time and is viable but expensive to implement. But now with more and more push for sustainability we may see further adoption. Vertiv is a solid company and easy to work with. They seem organized. I’ll list off a bunch of random companies that are publicly traded you can just look them up- Colocation- equinix, Keppel, digital realty, adaniconnex(part of adani enterprises) EQT recently purchased EdgeConneX also Vendors: Corning, vertiv, Schneider Electric, commscope(price way down), Panduit, Legrand, Eaton Consultant: CBRE, JLL
I bought 10.5k shares at 10.6 and picked up 100 Jan 2025 12.5 calls at $1. Barring any sort of fraud, I don't see how this trade can go tits up. CHK and EQT are both chopping production (less supply=higher prices) and futures are pricing a recovery in gas prices by December 2024. This year's El Nino means that while the winter was warm, summer will be hot too, meaning more demand for gas to produce electricity to cool homes. Realistically VET could sell ahead 100% of their domestic production at double current gas prices and lock in higher margins. Biden's export ban is only on new terminals so that news is overblown and priced into the spot market. Once Freeport's LNG trains get up and running again (scheduled for May) exports will continue and boost prices. Ukraine is getting more desperate, so they're going to ramp up attacks on Russia's oil fields, which is good for VET since a \~40% of production is in Europe. While European gas prices have cooled, there's no indication that the windfall tax will be renewed, so even though prices are lower, the margins are still great and the govt won't steal these profits. Finally, if you listened to the call, debt to equity hit 1x after last year's aggressive debt paydown and CAPEX will be reduced. While I think their share buybacks have been effectively worthless, they stated they're open to returning capital to shareholders, so I'm expecting another bump to the dividend, which should make the stock more attractive overall. I can realistically see a $15 share price by December, or even higher if we get a cold winter.
Huge potential in this unique company that's still going under the radar but not for long ⬇️ Mendus is a leader in Dendritic Cells develops next generation cancer therapies that harness the power of the immune system to establish lasting clinical responses without harming health or quality of life. Mendus main focus is on the promising vaccine candidate against cancer recurrence Vididencel (DCP-001) ■Trials: ▪︎ a Phase 2b study (Cadence) for Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML). ▪︎ a phase 1 study (Alison) for ovarian cancer. ▪︎ A phase 2 study with Illixadencel for soft tissue sarcoma ▪︎ NK-Cell program ■Key points ⬇️ ✅️Cash 120 million sek + ~ 58m sek (63.5% of warrants) expected to last until Q3 2025. ✅At least ️63.5% of TO3 will be subscribed. 63.5% kmr is subscribed by the management and top 2 large owners (Flerie/Thomas Eldered who sold Recipharm to EQT and the Dutch billionaire Ven Herk. Subscription period: March 15-29 ✅️Burn rate of approx. 25 million/quarter ✅️Low market cap (430m sec/ ~40m £) with huge upside of at least +350% ✅️Edison has a target price of SEK 2.38 and values the company at SEK 2.01 billion. ✅️Redeye has a base case of SEK 1.80 and a bull case of SEK 3.6 ✅️Vaccine candidate vididencel has blockbuster potential (acquisition?licensing?) ✅️The latest data from the Advance II study for AML with Vididencel shows that Mendus cancer therapy is superior to the standard treatment Onureg owned by Bristol-Myers (https://mendus.com/news/mendus-announces-positive-survival-data-from-phase-2-advance-ii-trial-evaluating-vididencel-as-maintenance-therapy-for-aml-at-ash-2023) "As of November 24, 2023, the median follow-up for the entire study population was 31.6 months (range: 6.6-60 months). Median RFS stood at 30.4 months and median OS was not reached, with 14/20 patients still alive and 11 still in CR1 at the cut-off date. The RFS at 2 years was 56%, and the estimated 2-year and 3-year OS stood at 74.9% and 64.7%, respectively. The only drug approved for AML maintenance therapy is oral azacitidine, which in MRD positive patients led to a median RFS of 7.1 months versus 2.7 months in the placebo arm and an OS of 14.6 months versus 10.4 months in the placebo arm of the registration trial1." ✅️Australian non-profit organization ALLG which is funded by Big Pharma and ran the Quazar-001 study (Onureg owned by Bristol-Myers) with principal investigator Dr. Andrew Wei contacted Mendus after the impressive data presented by vididencel. ALLG has chosen to run the Cadence clinical trial in-house(combo trial Vididencel/Onureg). They finance large parts of the study, ie reduced burn rate for Mendus. (https://mendus.com/news/mendus-and-australasian-leukaemia-lymphoma-group-to-expand-clinical-testing-of-vididencel-as-maintenance-treatment-for-aml) ✅️In addition to the honor of being contacted by the respected organisation ALLG. S Mendus gets even huge tax benefits in Australia = reduced costs ----> new subsidiary in Australia at the end of Q4 (probably more things going on behind the new subsidiary...) ✅️New strong major owner Flerie Invest/Thomas Eldered (Recipharm) took a position with SEK 90 million in connection with a directed issue of 0.48 sec. ✅Record insider purchase since Mendus was founded: ️Management refueled shares for 5 million between August 23 and February 24 ✅️Promising survival data + safety profile for the Vididencel ADVANCE II study (AML) has led to the vaccine candidate receiving a Fast Track from the FDA (ONLY 30% of drug candidates receive a fast track from an FDA.) ✅️The probability of an accelerated approval from the FDA increases ⬇️ ✅️Regulatory tailwind: FDA invests heavily in accelerating the development and availability of cell therapies for rare diseases that show a strong safety profile. (Bet started summer 2023: read about Nicole Verdun) (https://www.rarediseaseadvisor.com/features/scd-features/fda-industry-officials-predict-2024-breakout-year-gene-therapy/) ✅️Cancer therapies are starting to get a lot of attention in the US ✅️The company is very low valued and shows an attractive risk/reward as the collapsed biotech sector is on its way to a positive momentum with upcoming interest rate hikes in sight. ✅️Big Pharma is intensively looking for promising drug candidates/therapies in oncology, among other things due to expiring patents. Licensing deals/acquisitions increased sharply in late 2023 and early 2024. The depressed valuations attract the giants. Mendus is a promising candidate ■Mendus is fundamentally in a very exciting phase where a huge valuation awaits in the year 2024: ▪︎ March 12, 2024: a two-hour Strategy/business update with NorthX Biologics and ALLG as guests ▪︎ March 15-29, 2024: Subscription period of warrants ▪︎ March 2024: AML --> Start of the phase2b Cadence study (combo study Oral-azacytidine/vididencel) ▪︎ March 2023: First patient/participant in the Cadence trial ▪︎ H1 2024: End of phase II meeting with FDA ▪︎ H1 2024: Start of new study with Illixadencel (Soft tissue sarcoma
Buy now EQT, RCC, and even SWN…..
Why is EQT down? Seems like solid results.
Why is EQT down? Seems like solid ass results.
Look up natty gas name like EQT Cheniere and Nextdecade
Natgas is close to the bottom. I'm long LNG plays like NEXT LNG EQT
yes, I'm buying nat gas equities like NEXT EQT LNG KMI. Natural gas prices have bottomed yesterday
> Oil is doing the same. Yeah, but that's largely been the case for the last century (all dollar values are nominal, FYI) 80s you had * SOCO + Gulf ($13.2bn) * Texaco + Getty Oil ($10.1bn) * BP + SOHIO ($7.8bn) * Dupont + Conoco ($7.3bn) * Mobile + Superior ($5.7bn) 90s you had * **Exxon + Mobil ($77.2bn)** * BP + Amoco ($49.0bn) * BP-Amoco + ARCO ($26.8bn) 2000s you had * **Royal Dutch + Shell Transport & Trading Company ($$95bn)** * ExxonMobil + XTO ($41.0bn) * ConocoPhillips + Burlington ($35.6bn) * Chevron + Texaco ($35.0bn) * BHP + Billiton ($28.0bn) * Conoco + Phillips ($18bn) * Chevron + Unocal ($17.3bn) * Anadarko + KerrMcgee ($18.0bn) * Valero + DiamondShamrock ($7.0bn) 2010s you had * Energy Transfer Equity + Energy Transfer Partners ($90bn, but technically an IDR / GP buy-in, so not sure if this one really counts...) * **Kinder Morgan + El Paso Pipelines ($70bn)** * Royal Dutch Shell + BG Group ($82.0bn) * Saudi Aramco + SABIC ($69.1bn) * **Occidental Petroleum (plus a little help from WB) + Anadarko ($57.0bn)** * Energy Transfer + SemGroup ($54.3bn) * Enbridge + Spectra ($28.0bn) * Marathon Petroleum Corp + Andeavor ($35.6bn) * MPLX + MarkWest Energy ($5.1bn) * Energy Transfer + Sunoco ($20.bn) * ConocoPhillips + Concho ($13.3bn) * EQT + Rice Energy ($10.2bn) And, finally, in the 2020s you had * Exxon + Pioneer ($59.5bn) * Chevron + Hess ($53.0bn) * ONEOK + Magellan ($18.8bn) * Occidental + Crownrock ($12.0bn) * Chevron + PDC Energy ($7.8bn) * Chevron + Noble Energy ($13.7bn) This is just a very long-winded way of saying that capital intensive industries, like oil and gas, have immediate accretive benefits to shareholders by increasing scale inorganically via M&A......and this fact is not lost on the federal government Source: spent a lot of time in the energy industry, initially as a B4 auditor and then as an energy industry coverage investment banker specializing in M&A
I feel confident about my choices as I lightened up on AAPL the last day of July. I started over a series of weeks going into CHX, OXY, WMB, XOM and EQT with proceeds. I have no problem holding fossil fuel stocks for next 10 years.
EQT is going to continue to print.
See now you're mixing concepts. "Overvalued" is value investor talk. If you're in pre-hype Tesla then - or for example IONQ now - +200% means a lot less than if you owned say an energy company EQT or XOM for examples. True growth companies can go anywhere from zero to twenty bag. There's one scale you use for DIS and JPM. And a whole nother scale for ENPH and RKLB. Think about the differences between value investing and growth investing.
/u/AP9384629344432 A few highlights from the Morningstar company breakdown of LNG: On their ability to capitalize on global demand: *volatility in the market should provide ample opportunities for Cheniere to take advantage of wide LNG differentials at different hubs around the world. This paid off in 2022 with LNG spreads at record levels given huge EU demand for LNG. The benefits are sizable, and we estimate Cheniere reaped almost $6 billion in excess marketing profits in 2022.* ​ On expansion: *Cheniere is adding more capacity with a final investment decision on Corpus Christi Stage 3, a 10 million metric tons per year-plus expansion in mid-2022. We model this expansion as contributing materially in 2026 after a late 2025 start. Cheniere is also fully permitted on two smaller trains, 9 and 10, for about 3 million metric tons per year, which we expect will eventually obtain a final investment decision and be active in 2026, as well. While the trains are still in the pre-filing review process with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Cheniere already has about 3 million tons of capacity under contract beyond its existing capacity and construction plans. Thus, we see the two trains as already an easy decision to move forward with a final investment decision.* *The massive 20 million ton Sabine Pass expansion, announced in early 2023, will likely require almost 30-35 million tons of contracts, assuming optimization opportunities at existing trains, and it is uncertain whether it will eventually move forward. The three-train expansion (or about 6.7 million tons per train) was decided in part, due to the need to source power from Texas and likely coal-fired power generation. This meant that larger trains were needed to improve the overall per-train economics versus using gas-fired power generation and the resulting lower emissions.* ​ And when their new growth comes online: *The Midscale trains with about 3 million tons capacity add about $400 million in annual EBITDA to our longer-term estimates beginning in 2027.* ​ So yes, they are a solid medium to long term play as they have lots of new capacity coming on in 3-4 years. However, If LNG prices go crazy overseas in the meantime, they still reap excess profits. So, its probably not the best short term play, but not a bad one. It is a solid longer term hold if you think LNG will be a big US export going ahead (which I do). The Department of energy agrees: [https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=56320](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=56320) Like I said, there are probably better levered short term plays (EQT comes to mind as a natural gas producer), but I do like the longer term stability of LNG. It makes money regardless of price, unlike a producer, but also has upside if prices go nuts.
I owned LNG for awhile, but sold after the Ukraine spike. Always looking for another opportunity to get in. Are you looking at LNG producers, or the E&P names (EQT comes to mind)?
I think it's a very favourable risk-reward opportunity at the current prices. I'm not a professional though so please feel free to point out any mistakes in the thesis. Most arguments come from their annual reports and other investors' thesis, that I just put together, so I claim no rights to what has been written below. Here is a brief write-up: ​ **Lumen Technologies (NYSE: LUMN)** ​ **What is the business (sector, cyclicality)?** Telecommunications, network services, security, cloud solutions. Headquarters in Louisiana, United States. Defensive, and technically not cyclical, but the whole telecom sector is beaten down badly (Verizon, AT&T, Liberty, Vodafone, DISH all down on a 5Y chart; Comcast and Charter more or less breakeven, and only T-Mobile up significantly). The business structure is fairly complicated, as it is made up of multiple components: · Century Link (legacy business): parent company, rural US slow-connection telecom and TV cable, shrinking business · Level 3 Communications: bought in November 2017 for $34 billion, fiber infrastructure, high-speed internet connection · Qwest: bough in 2011 for $12 billion, more landline phone and TV cable infrastructure Technically these are mergers and not acquisitions, hence the complicated structure. ​ **How it makes money?** The company owns 160,000 on-net buildings and 400,000 route miles of fiber optic cable globally (most revenue comes from the US). The most valuable asset is Level 3 as it is the high-speed internet provided and a growing part business. The money generated through IP services (connectivity) via fiber infrastructure. On-net buildings means simply owning fiber assets (and copper) wiring in commercial buildings. In simple terms: internet provider. Money also comes from ‘wholesale’, which means other companies using their fiber cables to provide internet. To a smaller extent: cloud security, services (cloud storage, caches, etc.). Contracts with the public sector, government grants to lay fiber in rural areas, US government departments deals (Defense Information Systems Network). Still marginal profits from landline phones, going to zero in a long term but generates no costs. In principle, the legacy business is used to “milk” the cash from it and use it to grow the revenue high-speed broadcast, namely, Level 3 part. They already sold parts of the rural assets to shift more toward urban/suburban internet broadband providing. ​ **Is it shareholder friendly (buybacks, dividends)?** Dividend program cancelled in Q4 2022. Buyback programs: · August 2021 – December 2021: repurchased 80.9 million shares of our outstanding common stock in the open market for an aggregate market price of $1.0 billion; average purchase price of $12.36 per share = yield of 8-9% returned to shareholders. · In Q4 2022: a new $1.5 billion two-year share repurchase plan authorized = at the current market cap that would account for over 30% annual yield (!), which is massive as long as there is a cash flow to execute the program. As of Q4 2022, they already repurchased $200m worth of shares for the average share price of $6.07. Can it go bankrupt (financial health)? They do have a high debt which is concerning. The current debt (as of Q4 2022) is $20.5 billion. At the same time, though, they generated stable Free Cash Flow of $2.260 billion for 2022, $3.742 billion for 2021, and $2.979 billion for 2020. The ratio of LTL/FCF is huge, as it sits around 15 (meaning they would need 15 years to pay-off the long-term liabilities, including debt, with these FCF levels). However, after ditching the dividend, the FCF has been used mainly to repurchase debt: $9.9 billion in 2022, $1.5 billion in 2021. This both lowers the debt but also lowers FCF on the balance sheet. The debt has been decreased to around $20 billion in 2022, from around $30 billion in 2021. The current net debt to EBITDA ratio is 2.8 (vs 3.6 in 2021, and steadily decreasing since 2017). This is lesser ratio than AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile, and only slightly higher than Comcast. Unlikely to go bust if they commit to repaying debt (even at yearly rate less than 60% of what they did in 2022). ​ **Why this opportunity exists?** The company on the pretty much constant decline since $41/share high in October 2014 (down 95%). From 2017: the acquisition of Level 3 Communication, CenturyLink management failed to run the new business and then was replaced by Level 3 management, a lot of ambiguity in valuing a new business, parts of which grow and parts of which decline; uncertainty & concerns over the deal = stock falls. September 13, 2022: announcement of a new CEO, the former president of Microsoft, new management for business transformations to drive growth; Jeff Storey (a previous Level 3 CEO) steps down; uncertainty. Stock falls from $10.1 to $9.15. November 02, 2022: elimination of the dividend. The dividend yield at the time was 13%, the reason a lot of investors held the stock, who now sold. Also, dividend ETFs forced to sell. In a long run, a good decision to make to invest into repaying debt and buybacks. Stock falls from $7.8 to $5.8. February 07, 2023: released Q4 2022 earnings beating EPS by nearly 90%, though revenue Y/Y decline of over 20% and gloomy outlook for the future year(s). Stock falls from $4.99 to $3.95. March 6, 2023: announcements of the company being kicked out of the S&P500 as the market cap declined, ETFs forced to sell. Stock falls from $3.30 to $2.48. Therefore, a lot of uncertainty and restructuring changes = higher risk. Moreover, huge index sells as dividend was cut and market cap fallen rapidly. Nonetheless, the market is likely massively overreacting given the past cash flow performance and debt repayment efforts, regardless of the turnaround execution. ​ **Risks** · Small insider ownership means the stock is subject to higher volatility and passive investing strategies (the biggest owner is Vanguard, follow by Temasek and BlackRock). · The debt: if the trend reverses and the management stops repaying debt and i.e., goes back to paying high dividend instead (which seems unlikely but who knows), the risk of them going under grows significantly. · If they fail to stay profitable (they were unprofitable for 5 out of 20 past years) in the future, that undermines the point of buybacks, which then create no value. Their FCF is significantly lowered because of debt repayment but that that needs to be monitored. If they fail to generate cash, they are worth nothing. ​ **Future outlook & catalysts** · Turnaround: they do seek to grow and focus on the core fiber business; new CEO claims she seeks to simplify the business and focus on “doing fewer things better”, which makes sense. They already sold parts of the business. 2023-2024 are meant to be the transition years for investments into quantum fiber high-speed internet connection. The total addressable with increased demand grows as well making it likely to succeed in the long run despite competition. · Acquisition: The have so much physical assets, namely, the fiber already in the ground someone is likely to buy the company off just for this reason. The company currently trades at 3-6x EBITDA. They already sold ‘less valuable’ parts of the business for around 9x EBITDA. Similar cases include: Zayo bough by EQT at 12.5x EBITDA, Stonepeak acquiring fiber assets for around 15x EBITDA. · Value appreciation: As they continue generate free cash flow and pay down debt to deleverage the company, it all of a sudden emerges as low debt profitable business generating FCF yet trading at the prices near the bankruptcy. The market would likely reevaluate over the years and give it a proper P/E and P/FCF multiple as the risk of going down decreases. Alternatively, there is some speculation they could spin-off Level 3 Communications at some point in the future to unlock value for shareholders.
I think it is. I have a few producers - like EQT, AMPY, and CRK. I also have ENB and EE. It’s slightly positively correlated to oil (which is mooning) and it is long term a cleaner energy and the LNG boom is just starting (in my opinion) I’d also rather take a profitable company these days and ride out the storm than pile into tech or bonds. But it’s all about the risks you want
EQT too cheap - calls for November
He has been saying that natural gas is bottoming, I followed his advice on EQT, he was bullish on gold and angry with himself for missing the run up, maybe twice now. I think he makes a lot of sense. I think he’s spot on and balanced; I agree with him with a lot of stuff, except for the pro-Putin bits which have gone away.
If analysts' price targets hold, and multiples aren't reduced, energy still the highest returning sector (projected) over the next 12 months. APA, DINO, PSX, XOM, EQT, in that order.
Natural gas companies are trading at 3-5x cash flow. EQT was $100 on $3.50 of EPS in 2016. Now it is $30 on $6 of EPS and the lowest cost producer. Yes, I answered the opposite of your question. Regarding your question, anything at 10x sales or more is highly vulnerable right now.
Geopolitics and The key to energy security is American natural gas, says EQT CEO Toby Rice [stck.pro/news/EQT/42982328](https://www.stck.pro/news/EQT/42982328)
>I think EQT is a strong buy at current levels. The company has solid fundamentals and technicals, and its dividend yield is also attractive. However, investors should keep an eye on the stock as any sudden changes in the market could affect its performance.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|5|**First Seen In WSB**|2 weeks ago **Total Comments**|14|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|11 months|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) >TL;DR: EQT Corporation is a strong buy at current levels, with analysts suggesting that the stock is due for a breakout. The company has strong fundamentals and technicals, and its dividend yield is also attractive.
>I agree with the technical analysis, and believe that EQT is a strong buy at current levels.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|5|**First Seen In WSB**|2 weeks ago **Total Comments**|12|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|11 months|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) >TL;DR: EQT is a strong buy at current levels, with a target price of $45.
This is a great entry point for EQT, SWN, RRC and CTRA. Load up now and thank me later
>CHESAPEAKE ENERGY UP 1.5%, CNX RESOURCES UP 2.3%, CHENIERE ENERGY UP 2.3%, EQT CORP UP 6.3% [twitter.com/DeItaone/statu…](https://t.co/gSoflnq5he) ^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2023-02-22 ^12:39:40 ^EST-0500
It's weird because EQT missed by 20% and still went up
$EQT according to Barron’s is the strongest nat gas player, so I wouldn’t short it. The others require DD to find the weakest player
If your first three paragraphs are correct, the best bet is shorting EQT, RRC, SWN, AR. Buying UNG is the most reasonably safe bet, though. Be warned, however, that UNG has a 1% management fee and loses 1% on rollover yield so it declines in value at a 2% annual rate.
"In light of this, internal hedging strategies for producers have been too light to cover these price declines. EQT Corp expects to lose $4.6 billion from derivative losses for ’22 and Southwestern Energy Co expects to lose $6.71 billion in the same period." Wouldn't large hedging derivative losses suggest the opposite conclusion?
>nity will do that well. Applovin had good earnings so there's that but the company has trashy financials and too much SBC (former Un I wouldn't put too much weight on this, EQT said most of its hedges expired and it went up. A few others rallied in the opposite direction of results.
LNG shipping again. Buying $ T E L L heavy $RRC $ EQT
This have been a real fuckin disaster since last August, but now finally with European storage levels decreasing, China reopening and Russian sanctions kicking in, we should start seeking some light at the end of the tunnel. I also find very attractive current prices for SWN, RRC, EQT
I am long in EQT, RRC and SWN. Bought all of them last July, bag-holding now waiting for either a new Russian shenanigan or a new glaciation
They're enormous and produce at fairly low cost. If EQT were a country, it would be the 12th largest gas producer in the world. They operate in the Appalachians up to Pennsylvania in close proximity to the population centers of the eastern USA. They got a P/B of 1.26 and a P/E of 6.8. A lot of the Book is land. They own over a million acres. They are an industry gorilla nobody hears about because nobody pays attention to the natural gas industry. General public wise I mean. We obviously pay attention here. So I kind of see them as more stable due to size. They're not at the whim of a couple sites or a couple plants. But I was wondering if you knew more depth on them. What company do you think is better?
Not terrible but there are a lot better options out there. Why do you like EQT? I can’t see anything that would distinguish them
As a good value play - EQT right now is cheaaaaaaaaaaaap
Fuck me even my EQT stock is up - like what the fuck
dump the Bitcoin, use cash to buy EQT June calls
Global warming saves the day? I think natural gas is an interesting long play (watching EQT). At normal gas levels, I might become bullish. More and more gas power is becoming viewed as a transition fuel. It's also used in fertilizer among other things.
My dd on EQT and LNG gets removed- a 10 bagger play, and this shit stays?
APA, EQT: beta 2+ make some money bois
Texas Pacific Land Corp. JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. W R Berkley Corp. Evergy Inc. Leidos Holdings Inc. Pinterest Inc. Class A Garmin Ltd. Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A DoorDash Inc. Class A Splunk Inc. NVR Inc. Alliant Energy Corp. Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp. Class A Essex Property Trust Inc. Teradyne Inc. SVB Financial Group LKQ Corp. Avantor Inc. Viatris Inc. Healthpeak Properties Inc. Tyler Technologies Inc. HubSpot Inc. Cboe Global Markets Inc. Akamai Technologies Inc. Zebra Technologies Corp. Burlington Stores Inc. Expedia Group Inc. First Horizon Corp. Kimco Realty Corp. NetApp Inc. Bio-Techne Corp. Everest Re Group Ltd. Interpublic Group of Cos. Inc. Brown & Brown Inc. FleetCor Technologies Inc. MongoDB Inc. Class A Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. Jack Henry & Associates Inc. Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc. PTC Inc. United Therapeutics Corp. RPM International Inc. Ovintiv Inc. UDR Inc. Hubbell Inc. Class B Trimble Inc. Hormel Foods Corp. International Paper Co. United Airlines Holdings Inc. Domino's Pizza Inc. Nordson Corp. Cloudflare Inc. Class A Carlisle Cos. Inc. Snap-on Inc. Chesapeake Energy Corp. Camden Property Trust Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. Gen Digital Inc. Packaging Corp. of America Toro Co. Rivian Automotive Inc. Class A Aecom Loews Corp. HEICO Corp. Class A Teleflex Inc. GoDaddy Inc. Class A Match Group Inc. Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. Stanley Black & Decker Inc. Graco Inc. Live Nation Entertainment Inc. Essential Utilities Inc. Pool Corp. Axon Enterprise Inc. SS&C Technologies Holdings Inc. EQT Corp. DocuSign Inc. Class A NiSource Inc. Charles River Laboratories International Inc. Campbell Soup Co. TransUnion Liberty Media Corp-Liberty Formula One Class C Bill.com Holdings Inc. Henry Schein Inc. Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. Equity LifeStyle Properties Inc.
EQT : buy 33.65, target 41, stop loss 33.20
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I was in PARA before Buffet. And opened a new bottle of rum the day I heard Buffet bought in. It was VIAC when I bought. I used EQT and CNX. Decent liquidity. Nothing fancy - just timing plain old stocks.
Long term hold what I got and look for swing trades later this year with extra money I toss in. Thinking natural gas - EQT probably - sometime in February or March. Thinking hyper growth stocks maybe summer. Eyeballs on Washington and the pot stocks. I dunno. January I'm just sitting on what I got and doing only the bare minimum monitoring of it.
RRC and EQT weak with natural gas
Actually, of the 3 mentioned my top choice is EQT. But these other two are healthy companies and they have been at support levels for months now. It is not a trivial risk-free move, so use some risk management technique please....
I am with you bro. I entered long positions in RRC, EQT and SWN. No options reader here, but I bought a warm Avirex leather bomber to enjoy this icy winter.....
# Tickers of Interest - TL;DR **Gamma Max Cross** * [TLT](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#TLT) 01/20 102P for $2.35 or less * [XLV](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#XLV) 01/20 135P for $2.30 or less * [EQT](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#EQT) 01/20 43P for $3.05 or less * [CRWD](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#CRWD) 01/20 140P for $10.80 or less * [LUV](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#LUV) 01/20 37.5P for $1.10 or less **Delta Neutral Cross** * [WBD](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#WBD) 01/20 10P for $0.35 or less * [USO](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#USO) 01/20 67C for $4.95 or less * [VOD](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#VOD) 01/20 12C for $0.20 or less * [BEKE](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#BEKE) 01/20 12.5P for $0.85 or less * [HSBC](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#HSBC) 01/20 28P for $0.40 or less # Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today. This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0. For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals. The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV. # Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle * If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open. * Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. * I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in. * The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. # FAQ - Because others have already asked. * These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? * No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. * Are you entering all these plays? * No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn. * You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean? * The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not. * Where are the crayons? I only see words. * Click the links above. * Have you back-tested this? * Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error) * What is the historical performance? * The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.85 with a 67% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 49% and 72%. (Stats as of 2022-10-28)
It'll be tough to do that with a $7k account, you're stuck starting out with one maybe two underliers at most and even if you get lucky and pick well and can close the trades out early to take profits and keep repeating the cycle, it's going to be a long time before you get back up to $25k. By now you've probably gathered that from all the other comments here. I filtered for variable strategies under $7k capital requirement and at least 15% annualized ceiling (based on holding to maturity), and here were a couple that had highest chance of being profitable [$EQT](https://share.oliveinvest.com/018486e3-15a0-9262-a757-ef6d56b0ec7e), [$VET](https://share.oliveinvest.com/018486f9-e75c-487f-33c2-961988a15d12) \-- do your own research though and make sure to invest in something you don't mind owning.
No y’all don’t. Not really any of the same besides Coterra and Chesapeake. I guess Southwestern now too since they purchased Indigo. All the big players up there are EQT, Antero, Range Resources, Ascent and a couple others I can’t think of. I know Repsol is also up in northeast PA as well and they’re in Texas too, so I guess there are a few.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|6|**First Seen In WSB**|1 week ago **Total Comments**|7|**Previous DD**| **Account Age**|2 weeks|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) **Vote Spam**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_spam&message=yj83ab)|**Vote Approve**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_approve&message=yj83ab) >TL;DR: EQT Corporation (EQT) and General Motors (GM) could be the old stocks to buy.
EQT metro booming - let’s get it
While all you are freaking about META, EQT missed earnings. How do you miss when you’re in natural gas…energy stocks are going to finally sell off
Good time to rotate away from tech for a while, and exploit the favorable (bullish) current scenario for oil and gas stocks. Particularly found of OXY, DVN, EOG, SM, OVV, ERF, DINO, EQT, RRC, SWN.
Yes: DVN, OXY, EOG, SM, ERF, DINO. There are also good natural gas stocks, but wait for the colder months: EQT, SWN, RRC.
See… I don’t even know what that means 😂. We had 100,000 to start with. I invested into Exxon, American Airlines, and a petroleum company. I sold my shares, and invested into a company called EQT, since the close was really low compared to the start of yesterday. My best bet seems to be Exxon and Tesla or other tech companies and wait for them to rise in a week most likely. There is a virtual 10 dollar commission and we can’t invest in shares worth less than 2 dollars.
Hope you guys bought that $EQT $RRC w me
Nat gas exploding ​ $RRC $EQT worth a shot long
Buying some $EQT.. maybe in play.. heard nat gas storage issue.. Maybe get $2 trade
I enjoyed reading your analysis. I have been enough in oil (upstream, fracturing precisely) to appreciate and corroborate the majority of your points. Just a curiosity, what do you think of DINO, ERF, PBF, EQT, RRC, SM and MTDR? I built a probably over-convoluted model, and these tickers are at the top of my ranking, together with DVN, OXY. Good luck with the next upturn ....
Add more oil for the upcoming boost. Some favorite of mine: SM, DINO, DVN, EQT, RRC
$ZS slashed almost 50% from ATH - great company to look at. $CRWD I know about the ticket nothing more seems legit good buy. $EQT great trends, natural gas, closing in on ATH, worth it. $VAL ?? ipo last year?) seems legit but. $UNH - yes!
That is just wrong on oil and complety wrong on nat gas. More than 70% of tier 1 sites in the Marcelius and Haynseville have been drilled... the Fayetteville's depletion followed King Hubbert's curve perfectly and if that plays out for Appalachian fracking then game over.... Nat Gas triples in 5 years. Buy companies that produce at 0.14 a MBTU and will sell at 25.00. AR, RRC, and EQT have the best remaining reserves.
Buy shale oil producers: OXY, DVN, RCC, EQT, EOG
Green Plains Inc. GPRE, -1.06% Ethanol 89% $30.64 $48.67 59% Halliburton Co. HAL, 4.29% Oil-field services/ Equipment 81% $28.12 $42.34 51% PDC Energy Inc. PDCE, 2.75% Oil and Gas Production 79% $63.58 $94.33 48% Baker Hughes Co. Class A BKR, 2.61% Oil-field services/ Equipment 77% $23.19 $34.11 47% Targa Resources Corp. TRGP, 0.24% Oil Refining/ Marketing 95% $65.37 $93.00 42% EQT Corp. EQT, 0.27% Oil and Gas Production 90% $44.91 $63.68 42% Talos Energy Inc. TALO, 3.79% Oil and Gas Production 83% $20.29 $28.20 39% ChampionX Corp. CHX, 1.20% Chemicals for Oil and Gas Production 80% $21.25 $29.11 37% Civitas Resources Inc. CIVI, 1.36% Integrated Oil 100% $63.09 $81.80 30% Diamondback Energy Inc. FANG, 2.70% Oil and Gas Production 88% $136.30 $173.17 27%
So... back when plug hit 13 bucks in June low. Spy was around 367 365. And draftking was down to 9. 10 bucks. Why are they not that low now? I loaded up with 5k worth shares in carnival cruise lines got some calls for like june next year top of expected move Check out EQT calls. 60 buck strike price. March or June next year
EQT June 16 exp 2023. Plus minus 20 bucks premium about 3.30. Getting some tommorow. Probably like 1 contract. What about meta puts. I say 100 strike. Price. Bottom expected move. 1 contract. Premium about 4.20
City Bank say buy on EQT 60 price target. Hmmm maybe get some calls like next year. Look at expected move volume and cheap premium. The buy shares. Dollar cost average
exSPAC [Billtrust to be Acquired by EQT Private Equity for Equity Value of $1.7 Billion](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220928005565/en/Billtrust-to-be-Acquired-by-EQT-Private-Equity-for-Equity-Value-of-1.7-Billion) \- BTRS "Under the terms of the agreement, Billtrust shareholders will receive $9.50 per share in cash upon the closing of the transaction. The price per share represents more than a 64 percent premium above the closing share price of $5.77 on September 27, 2022, and more than a 76 percent premium above the trailing 90-day volume weighted average stock price for the period ended September 27, 2022."
\# Tickers of Interest \*\*Gamma Max Cross\*\* \* \[EQT\](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#EQT) 10/21 50P for $3.25 or less \* \[JETS\](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#JETS) 10/21 18P for $0.50 or less \* \[VERU\](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#VERU) 10/21 16P for $5.50 or less \* \[NCR\](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#NCR) 10/21 32P for $2.40 or less \* \[FANG\](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#FANG) 10/21 135P for $6.65 or less \*\*Delta Neutral Cross\*\* \* \[V\](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#V) 10/21 205P for $1.55 or less \* \[ABT\](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#ABT) 10/21 105P for $2.00 or less \* \[ENB\](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#ENB) 10/21 42.5P for $0.85 or less \* \[OIH\](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#OIH) 10/21 250P for $13.75 or less \* \[ELAN\](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#ELAN) 10/21 15P for $0.45 or less \# Trading Thesis Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today. This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0. For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals. The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV. \# Notes \* If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Someone knows something that I don't know. \* Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. \* I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in. \* The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. \# FAQ \* These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? \* No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. \* Are you entering all these plays? \* No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn.
# Tickers of Interest **Gamma Max Cross** * [EQT](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#EQT) 10/21 50P for $3.25 or less * [JETS](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#JETS) 10/21 18P for $0.50 or less * [VERU](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#VERU) 10/21
Cheniere Energy (yeah, I know, obvious as they're the leading player, but they're v well positioned) EQT Corporation (same as Cheniere) If you want something more speculative, try: Tellurian. Getting a lot of interest at the moment. Bit more info on how the US market itself is adjusting to hopefully give some more context/background if you need: https://theoregongroup.com/commodities/oil/supply-of-american-lng-in-global-demand/
EQT