PSCE
Invesco S&P SmallCap Energy ETF
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Top oil and gas penny stocks for Q2 2023
Stocks/ETFs trading <$10/share that AREN'T pure speculation
Mentions
firstly just call options on USO crude oil futures etf. in addition to that, keep it simple. call options on XLE energy sector etf. if you're not in an options account, i like OILK which is a crude oil futures etf that pays a nice monthly dividend and no k-1 come tax time. XLE is fine to hold long term as well, but maybe you want some more leverage so PSCE small cap energy etf is a good one to have in the portfolio.
A lot of the large cap etf's are heavily weighted in CVX & XOM. If you're a bit more risk tolerant, I think it might be worth just buying the shares outright. If you want obscure high value mid caps which invest most of their capex in America, try PSCE.
Thanks man will go through that process. I over diversified which we all know it’s pointless. Funny enough all of them are the green except VNQ (due to interest rates). PSCE best performing by far but mostly due to luck from lump sum.
Why don’t you like Abbvie? I feel it’s one the best managed Pharma companies out there. I only worry about their portfolio. Pfe is solid too. My dad help pfe for 26 years and saw a 500% gain. But I still think ABBV has a brighter future. Yeah value can never go wrong. Always some baseline safe gain. What energy? Funny enough PSCE is still by best performing etf and I had no hope for it. Never expected it to be #1.
[All my 2024 predictions are here](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/18xgbhu/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_jan_03_2024/kg6vrx8/). Though I think I was a bit too gloomy on oil. TLDR: > Short: AAPL (-15%); PSCE (-10%); MPW (-20%); TSLA (-20%); VALE (-5% as iron ore rally breaks down); US natural gas producers. > Top 5 Picks, say equal weighted: CELH + CROX + DAKT + ENPH + UI. (I don't hold CELH/ENPH, but may in near future)
I had positions in FCX in the high 30s, CF in the 60s/70s, PSCE at around 50. I still own XOM at $90 per share. Most of these were bought 2022 through 2023. I sold off them over the course of several months once I realized: copper was entering a new term glut as inventories built up; CF I actually took a decent profit on; and PSCE I took a small profit as I grew bearish on US shale. I entered coal bigly in H1 of 2023, buying $AMR in the 150s, BTU in the high 20s but averaging down to 23, and recently HCC in the 60s and now 50s. I may re-enter copper and also am kinda interested in tin.
I've too itchy of a trigger finger, and ended up making some moves: bought 5 shares each of BTU, HCC, and CELH. (And sold out entirely of PSCE, 29 remaining shares, because the energy bull case looks like garbage right now and I'm already loaded up on coal as it is. So no need to tilt small cap oil/gas at these prices.)
Not directly. My energy exposures are: - BTU (thermal coal, which mainly targets US/Asian coal demand) - XOM (which I suppose is international enough) - PSCE (a small cap energy ETF, but US names only) I know L. American companies like PBR/EC did amazing. The Europe rally was pretty good, I was DCAing heavily into international leading up to October 2022. I don't really trust myself to pick Canadian oil and gas companies to be honest, since I don't know how to assess the quality of different operators. Seems like many of the companies have been a minefield, with sudden share dilutions, capex, M&A, etc. which is not what I'm looking for. My takeaway has been just do CNQ if at all.
Today's buys: - $500 of VXUS, $500 of Target Retirement Date Fund - Sold another $500 of PSCE (15% gain) New stock on watchlist: $DAKT. They make big electronic billboards at sport stadiums (at local high schools to professional settings) This company trades sub 8x trailing PE ($400M market cap) despite growing revenues 15-20%. 0 analyst coverage. They have a strong backlog ($300M) of orders. Earnings are actually temporarily suppressed due to some one time factors and the forward P/E is in theory even cheaper. They apparently have a major moat with 45% market share in N. America.
Good morning. I'm a professional money loser and here are my notes for 12/22/23. - Atlanta GDP Now revised down to 2.3%, down from 2.7%. That's a 15% decrease in the estimate !?! - Oh core PCE was up 0.1% month over month and I'm supposed to be happy? Yeah, just subtract out the things that actually matter, like food and gas. What then? - CROX limit order hit at $100, that's nice. - Today small cap value is shining. Puts used to always take potshots at the S&P 500 beating AVUV YTD. [Guess what? ... We might take the lead bois.](https://i.imgur.com/iTWiBB6.png) - Lately I've been thinking of some companies that I hold that I didn't do much detailed research about and don't really have an exit plan. Examples: JPM, LOW, V, MA. Is JPM fair valued? I actually don't know. Why did I buy this company again? I mean strong blue chips is nice, and V/MA I think will outperform and LOW should do well thanks to no-recession and housing market bounce back, but maybe I just dump JPM and put it into the index. I have learned in the last 2 years that banks are a lot harder to value than other businesses. - BTU having a really strong +4% day... Still debating taking profits. 8% gains but worried it could tank to -20% in the span of a month. - My biggest 2023 'mistake' was being bullish commodities in general imo. Now don't get me wrong, $AMR was a massive success. So it wasn't the hit to my portfolio so much as my actual conviction/beliefs that were incorrect. (I did have some FCX (copper), CF (nitrogen fertilizer) too, and a larger concentration in PSCE for small cap energy, but I either took small profits or losses on those). The oil bull thesis is getting dismantled the more US production increases while prices stagnate. The once-in-a-century unique warming event that made winter mild last 2022 (as some bulls were claiming) turned out to be... repeatable and natural gas demand will be muted in Europe. The copper supply situation turned out far less dire, in fact in a glut. There was no massive spike in Chinese demand.
Back in the summer of 2022 the consensus here (well, at least among some of the bearish folks) was that you simply had to wait until Powell tells you he is done before you can invest. We could more or less guess he was done a few months ago, but after today, we heard it directly from the Federal Reserve. According to that logic, today is the day you start buying? Or do you have to literally wait until the day he lowers rates? Or is it too late? I was always skeptical investing was that simple, because by the time Powell announced rate cuts, market would have reacted far far in advance. But to all of those people who suggested it was that easy, now is your moment. Welcome to being long! --- Portfolio remarks: Before mutual funds update, I'm up 1.36% today, so it'll probably be like +2% by evening. AVUV had a +3.3% day, now +16% YTD, still lagging S&P 500's 23% YTD. But the rally for AVUV is just getting started, with most of the move in recent months. Nice to see UI/CVS/PYPL/CROX/CLFD continuing their recent mini rally. I'm still on the verge of selling out entirely from PSCE and just reallocating to broader small cap value indices.
I derisked my portfolio a bit, by reducing my position in $PSCE by about 25% or a little over $700 (my net position was slightly in the green, never more than by around 15-20% though, currently closer to +3%). Betting on small US oil and gas producers in this price environment is a no-go for me. It could still go up by a lot if crude oil does, but this ETF is full of junk that will crash and burn if crude stays where it is currently or even falls. I still have energy exposure via the remaining 75% of my position + $XOM + $BTU. I suspect we haven't had a full 'capitulation' moment in oil and gas. A better strategy might be long-short quality in the energy trade. (Quality = $XLE or maybe just $XOM). I am still interested in some offshore plays like $RIG.
Brief comments on my holdings: - Bizarre day: why is CVS *green*!?? - Crox is falling again which I'm happy with given that the rally (and now cool down) is all happening on no new data. So I'll add a bit more to my position if it comes down. - Oil price action continues to be a disaster, but unlike earlier this summer, I am not very confident in the bull thesis. (See my comment yesterday). I'll have to make some tough decisions about PSCE soon. I don't want to tilt small cap shitcos in oil and gas if I'm losing confidence in the oil bull thesis. Sticking with quality like XOM is fine, though. - AMR continuing to go vertical (up 116% YTD!). I'll probably consider taking profit in the $350 range if this continue without met coal prices rising. I don't know if I'd sell out entirely at like $400 a share, but this company is no longer the stupidly cheap buy it was sub $200. - $BTU still getting to love, and I guess that's rational. Elliott Management has been liquidating their stake and probably adding selling pressure. The thermal coal outlook is bleak so any move up will need to come from met coal + future production increases, e.g., from N. Goonyella. - UI falling back to its recent trough, maybe I'll set a limit order buy at $100. This is definitely on no news. Part of this thesis is buying on the uncertainty discount that this company gets in times of bad business, given their lack of earnings calls, presentations, etc. I only bought like 3 shares, but looking to double my position depending on if prices fall to absurd levels or I get more confidence in the business and its inventory management. - SBUX is falling, might be nice to add, but I'll wait to see if it falls more or if this is justified based on China weakness. The company has always been expensive but it's at a 23.6 forward P/E...
Maybe energy is just uninvestible? The crude oil price action is just weird, so making me question the bull thesis. XOM has been doing a lot of big M&A deals which I'm not a fan of, but they also seem to be getting assets for the cheap. Anyway, dropped 2 shares each of PSCE (small cap energy), AVUV (US small cap value), AVDV (ex-US small cap value) today.
I am looking at PSCE the small cap oil and gas etf. I think the mega oil giants are buying up the entire sector.
For what it is worth, I don't think very highly of the holdings in PSCE. I have a writeup up my [thesis here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ETFs/comments/12cshu0/unpopular_etfs_that_are_still_great/jf42p6w/).
I'm invested in PSCE as well! Up \~22% at the moment, but only a very small investment. Also looking into VTS.
I have about 3% of my portfolio in PSCE, a small cap energy ETF. Despite carnage in H1, it's actually up 18% YTD versus XLE (oil large caps) which is up 7%, S&P 500 up 10%. Next stop NASDAQ! Now don't look at the past few years lol. Wanted some 'torque' to higher crude oil.
To be clear I only started really doing well in the past few months; the first few months of the year were brutal. Since inception I think I'm -1.5% relative to what SPY would have been. It was -5% a few months ago. The swing was even more extreme in my Roth which is like 50% individual stocks, dominated by $AMR. Many of my individual stocks had done really well: GOOG, META, AMD, MSFT, AAPL (sold), XOM, PSCE, CF, and since it's such a big chunk of my portfolio, AMR. So yeah, my individual stocks made a big difference.
$BTU +3.4%, $AMR +3.7%, $CF +2%, microcap +4%, PSCE +2%, beautiful day. I made an elaborate DCF of $AMR and got a fair value just shy of double current prices (with assumptions of like 15% declining FCFs YoY for 4 years, 0% growth in perpetuity, 15% discount rate). Now I'm not buying, but I certainly still feel good about my holdings.
The smaller companies if you want a bigger upside. PSCE if you can't decide and just want small cap energy.
These days I barely even look at SPY/QQQ when i check the market. When you got so many interesting individual stocks who tf care about the S&P 500's 0.2% or -0.4% price action. Today $FCX is randomly shitting the bed. Though I've been trimming it and $CF for other riskier bets. Might totally sell out of FCX at some point and re-enter the copper trade with something w/ more 'torque' to copper. Only other mystery is why XOM/PSCE are selling at these crude oil prices. They aren't pricing in this crude rally being very durable.
Here are my picks that I think have the potential to become multi-baggers from today's prices: $AMR: 3 bagger $EOSE: 10 bagger $BTU: 3 bagger $PYPL: 3 bagger $CLFD: 3-5 bagger $PSCE: 2-3 bagger Riskiest bet here is probably $EOSE. I'm only slightly in the red on $EOSE. $AMR is my biggest individual stock and already close to a 1-bagger. $AMR/$BTU are coal companies with very healthy FCF to lead to buybacks. $PSCE is a small cap energy ETF so if energy prices remain relatively high, these companies will easily multiply similar to coal companies just because of how heavily discounted they currently are. $CLFD is an infrastructure play for fiber internet and honestly not doing well--it'll become a multibagger only once business returns. It's the only one here I'm deep in the red on.
Scrolling through my old comments, wow the commodity space has totally changed since then. What a difference 3 months has made. Update to my comment: > - Positions: AMR (3.5%), PSCE (2.5%), BTU (2%), XOM (1.8%), FCX (1.2%), UFPI (1%), CF (0.9%). > > - P&Ls: BTU (-16%), CF (-9%), FCX (-6%), PSCE (-1.5%), AMR (+2%), UFPI (+17%), XOM (+28%), Now it's - Positions: AMR (5.3%), PSCE (3.2%), BTU (2.4%), XOM (2.1%), FCX (1%), UFPI (0%--sold out), CF (0.9%). - P&Ls: BTU (+3.7%), CF (+12.6%), FCX (+2%), PSCE (+25%), AMR (+64%), UFPI (+33% at time of sale), XOM (+33%), You're URNM must be shining! Nice call! I have no uranium exposure.
Just a beautiful day for me. AMR +5% (everyone keeps typing it as ARM today for some reason, I've no clue why). BTU +3%. CF +3%. FCX +3%. Microcap +5% (but it's price action has been disgusting so not gonna brag). PYPL catching a bid. Small cap value +1.5%. Big tech shining. Crude oil hitting the $90s, XOM/PSCE up 1-2%. Visa is my worst performing stock at -2.4% lol. Love it when everything is falling into place.
Got it. I'm already a bit too overweight commodities so probably won't add anything anytime soon. Already hold $XOM, $PSCE (small cap energy ETF), $BTU (thermal/met coal), $AMR (met coal), $FCX (copper), $CF (nitrogen fertilizer). Only new buys I'm really considering are Teck (to replace FCX possibly), HCC (longer term met coal thesis). But I'll give CLF/X more research. Also interested in offshore drilling exposure (RIG perhaps?)
Having a pretty nice day in my portfolio. CVS up 2.5%, PYPL +1.5%, XOM +2.9%, PSCE + 2.2%, AMR +2%, BTU +2%. AVUV +0.5%. Looks like I might actually close green or slightly red on a NASDAQ -1% and SPY -0.6% day. AMR is right to go up, because met coal prices have been on a steady move upward. Some met coal analysts have been saying that there is a new post-Covid floor on pricing, and we won't go back to sub-200 levels after stabilizing (SGX Aus Coking Coal). And indeed we're hitting close to 300! Now I'll admit I'm a bit confused on how to read these futures pricing contracts sometimes. But I think this is showing the [Sept. 2023 contracts](https://i.imgur.com/Kh0MD1y.png) over the last 4 years... (I'm surprised they go out that far?) [Here are the other futures prices](https://i.imgur.com/4Y46tx8.png) though. Anyway, point is that at these levels, met coal companies will print even more cash. They were cheap before and they are becoming even cheaper now.
Hoping my $60 limit order for PYPL hits. After that I'm not adding anymore even if it falls more. This is a short/medium term swing play that I'm investing a little under $1K on. Mostly because I think market narrative has swung too far the other way. Strong oil day, PSCE + 1.7%, XOM +1.5%. Finally cracked +50% gains on $AMR on my 20 shares. CF mooning for some reason. Will sell out a little over $100 a share perhaps--probably more because when it moons it really moons. It's also a bit of a cyclical trade on recovery in nitrogen fertilizer prices, with support from strong FCF generation + cheap natural gas in the US. But I don't think it's a great long term hold.
Beautiful day in commodity land for me. Crude oil mooning. CF +4.5%, AMR +1.7%, BTU +0.7%, PSCE +1%, XOM +1%. META/MSFT green too but not as satisfying.
Some weekend reading / comments if anyone gets anything out of it: ## Macro Thoughts - A very good [Twitter thread](https://twitter.com/adamkwolfe/status/1696915768837902591) on the nature of China's current economic problems. Specifically, what makes it different from Japan in the 1990s-early 2000s or US during the GFC? A recent [FT Unhedged column](https://www.ft.com/content/56794f16-ea14-4f41-b561-e7d0c31f93a9) also interviewed Adam Wolfe along with a few others on the same topic. The TL;DR, China is not yet in a balance sheet recession because it is not deleveraging and asset prices are not widely melting down, and high household savings are not being channeled into new demand. [Start with the article, which is less technical than the Tweet thread] - [A 'resounding recovery' in bank lending activity since March](https://twitter.com/Econ_Parker/status/1695504211046236359), yet more evidence the regional banking panic is not translating into tightening credit. And others have been citing the loosening financial conditions graphs in recent weeks, usually to argue the Fed is being too dovish. A counter: [the Fed's balance sheet, while temporarily expanded via BTFP, is back to a steady pace downward](https://twitter.com/BullandBaird/status/1696186436955873557). So no permanent QE... - A [remarkable graphic comparing the inflation fight of the 1970s to today](https://i.imgur.com/Jcjf2dn.jpg). Source is [Mike Konczal on Twitter](https://twitter.com/mtkonczal/status/1694895672229548187). The disinflationary story looks totally different from the 1970s and basically destroys the staglationary forecast. It's more likely that in the US, we go from high inflation / strong economy to medium inflation / strong economy to low inflation / weak economy. [Stagflation requires high inflation + weak economy] - [Bearish comment on US federal payroll taxes coming in weak](https://twitter.com/wabuffo/status/1697704270978486656) from a very bullish Twitter individual. [This person is like PutsRNotDaWae but more Fin-Twit famous] This indicates weakening economy in August. - Even still, [interest payments are not hitting US households hard relative to their income](https://i.imgur.com/pST7MzU.jpg). - Canada! [Your housing market is out of control](https://i.imgur.com/COKhTiO.jpg). That is absurd. - [Improving factory data in China!](https://twitter.com/chigrl/status/1697175801723011557). ## Met & Thermal Coal Updates - Chinese Dalian coking coal is rebounding [very strongly](https://twitter.com/aggresivevalue/status/1697432266475987107). Again, inconsistent with claims of a weak Chinese economy. Now, some will point out this is partly just US-Chinese currency impacts, and that is true, but the move is starting to outpace currency effects. - [Australian coking coal prices also rising](https://twitter.com/aggresivevalue/status/1697266321308676559). And why this will [benefit AMR soon...](https://twitter.com/aggresivevalue/status/1697289364907122825). - Iron ore [is also jumping](https://twitter.com/chigrl/status/1697207240640414140) on bullish China data. Remember iron ore + met coal = steel. I wrote a [longer thread about it here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/164dn77/rstocks_daily_discussion_technicals_tuesday_aug/jy9fzw2/) with links. - [News article on Germany dismantling a wind farm for thermal coal (lignite) mine...](https://twitter.com/robert_ivanhoe/status/1696961316504912101).... What are we doing humanity??? - [Brief thread for any remaining $BTU bulls](https://twitter.com/loneelmcapital/status/1696949940961046771) to get excited. - Coal expert [reminds us why the stars are aligning in met coal](https://twitter.com/mfwarder/status/1696669832631005300). Chinese Shanxi coal mines getting closed over numerous recent disasters leading to scrutiny over safety by regulators. India will start buying more now that monsoon season is coming to a close. - India's regulators mandating all [thermal coal power plants](https://twitter.com/CoalNewswire/status/1696539055230537781) to run at max capacity until Oct. 31st on strong demand. - [Seaborne coal volume hitting all time records](https://twitter.com/CoalNewswire/status/1696601360836215180). ## Oil - [Barclays price targets rising to $97 for 2024](https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Barclays-Sees-97-Brent-Oil-Price-In-2024-As-Market-Tightens.html). - Last week we saw massive inventory draws reported by both [EIA](https://twitter.com/chigrl/status/1696893236424355934) and [API.](https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1696622107902279971) My comment on it [earlier](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1659w3a/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_aug_30_2023/jye8oly/) this week. - India [increasingly moving away from Russian oil](https://twitter.com/ed_fin/status/1697554329538830537) as the big discounts are disappearing relative to Middle Eastern supply. - High energy costs causing [German companies to look abroad](https://www.ft.com/content/d9606bf0-a0e1-454c-aaf3-0a32617d7e9a). ## Copper & Base Metals - Check out these graphs of inventories for Copper/Aluminum/Zinc/Nickel. Only a matter of time before price responds... ---- Personal Portfolio Thoughts As WTI/Brent continue rising up, I expect strong performance in the ETF $PSCE I hold. I don't mention it as often, as I think it's a pretty low quality ETF, but it's my way of getting exposure to small cap energy companies highly sensitive to the underlying crude oil price. I'm already up 22% on it but it should inflect higher and dominate companies like $XOM should prices continue rising.
Even ignoring the microcap it's a strong day for me. AMR +4.5%, BTU +3%, CF +2%, FCX +4%, PSCE +4%, XOM +2%. AVUV +2%. EOSE is cooling down on profit-taking but it's trading at the same price without a mega-DOE loan so I ended up adding to my position slightly. Price targets getting hiked to $10 and $15 by Guggenheim and Stifel.
Started trimming $UFPI after 35% gain and stock hitting ATH. I'm debating if I should just fully sell out. I've been told I have too many positions and starting to agree. Wondering if I should be more concentrated in higher conviction plays or just use this as opportunity to be more index funds. For what it's worth I'm approximately 70% index funds (VTI/VXUS/AVUV/AVDV, a little SMH/PSCE) and 30% individual stocks, and this includes all my accounts. That is my entire net worth besides about 13K in cash.
XOM (cost basis 89) and PSCE (cost basis 47), been accumulating since February 2022. I also have exposure to energy via my coal stocks (BTU in particular). And also AVUV, a small cap value ETF that is a substantial part of my portfolio, has heavy allocations to energy (17%). For comparison, energy is 4% of the S&P 500.
Great day for the oil bulls. Let's bring it up to $90 and stop there, please and thank you. My small cap energy ETF $PSCE gonna take-off at those higher oil prices.
17 days later from this, +18% in AMR, -4% in BTU, +21% in XOM, +17% in PSCE, +10% in FCX, +9% in CF. What a difference 2 weeks has made lol
Can't help but feel all the stars are aligning for the energy trade going forward. Bulls screaming till blue in the face about imminent inventory drawdowns, OPEC cuts finally hitting their export data, end of SPR, China record imports, US/global demand at ATH, strong crack spreads, ... Add on potential China stimulus. And now WTI up 21% from late June lows ($67). Bought aggressively into energy/materials throughout all of H1, though cooled off on it in the last month. Went from mildly in the red in PSCE to up 17% thanks to a 30%+ run from late May. If this rally is legit, small cap energy names are going to fly up.
Great day for me. FCX up 3%, AMR up 2%, CF up 2%, XOM +1%, PSCE up 2% (check out the chart, it's had a strong 27% rise since June 1st). Nothing deeply red.
Woke up today and checked Yahoo Finance and thought I hit the jackpot as my net worth increased by $15K. Then I realized $PSCE (small cap energy ETF) did a reverse stock split... Not as exciting. Anyway, it's nice to see small cap value thriving today. My commodities slowly inching up. CLFD having a strong day, I'm nearly flat on my holdings--given the brutality of the sell-off, I think I timed my buy pretty well. --- Added a few more shares to CVS. I only plan to invest about $1K into it in total at around $70 a share. Think the monopolistic impact of its acquisitions will add real synergies (I hate that word) via vertical integration. The more I think about it, it's actually quite corrupt in a sense. CVS has health insurance operations and pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) operations. The PBM does negotiations between drug manufacturers/pharmacies and the insurer. The PBM has control over out-of-pocket costs, so they can discourage patients from picking the best drug and instead pick that which lowers insurance company costs and maximizes PBM's share of the pie. The PBM controls the 'formulary' which tells us which drugs would be covered by the insurer. Having the PBM/insurer in the same company gives the integrated company more control over costs. Without vertical integration, a PBM might just squeeze as much profits as possible and not pass on savings to the insurer, which is bad. Also the drugs they add to the formulary may not align with the profit incentives of the insurer--insurer doesn't want patients to pick the most expensive drugs that the insurer has to pay out. So instead companies are vertically integrating so the new goal is to maximize joint insurer/PBM profits rather than PBM alone. I'm actually unsure which is better/worse. I think with insurers/PBMs all on the same team, there is also more buying power that can be used to exert control over pricing from drug manufacturers while increasing how much patients end up paying. It's all so complicated.... My takeaway is that CVS vertically integrating will give them a leg-up like UNH has.
[Pierre Andurand](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-28/andurand-s-oil-hedge-fund-plunge-exceeds-50-in-worst-ever-loss), well-known oil bull, seeing catastrophic losses (likely more than $1B). > His main Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced Fund, which makes leveraged bets, fell by another 7% this month through June 23, extending this year’s losses to about 51%, according to an investor letter seen by Bloomberg News. > > It’s not clear what led to the recent losses. Andurand earlier this year predicted that oil prices may exceed $140 a barrel by the end of 2023. But those bullish calls have met with the commodity drifting lower on elevated inventory levels, resilient supplies from Russia and rising shipments from two of OPEC’s most troubled exporters, Iran and Venezuela. His $140 a barrel prediction was, in my view, total nonsense. He's still done well though: - 2023: -50.8% (YTD) - 2022: 59% - 2021: 87% - 2020: 154% - 2019: -15% I have a pretty large position in a small cap energy ETF, $PSCE, and I'm basically flat in that as of today. So feeling pretty good going forward, as we're getting closer to a more bullish H2 and it seems the worst of the oil sell-off has been priced into this very risky ETF. As crude prices rise again, I anticipate the fund moving up like a leveraged bet on the commodity.
A broad rally for my portfolio. META to $300 wen?? [I should seriously think about taking gains on that--I already cut my AAPL/MSFT position by a third each] UFPI/LOW riding the great housing data. AVUV up 2%. Even small cap oil (PSCE) is catching a bid. FCX a +3% day. The worst of CF's selloff appears to be over and I'm only 6-7% in the red. BTU slowly riding up as TTF/HH starting to look more bullish lately. And just gonna quietly mention that I may have hit the jackpot on a stock that I am reluctant to mention so it's been a fun week. (I'm up 73% on it, the stock itself is up 230% YTD, but I only started buying in around February)
All my small caps/commodities are doing amazing. The stock market always surprises me in how much momentum seems to matter. After months of brutal selling suddenly everything rises 10-20% in a week. Today CLFD is up 7% after 5% yesterday. Now up 24% in a month. That devastating earnings sell-of has been completely erased. And it is quite typical for this company to just go wild when it decides to run-up. The last 7 days has seen PSCE up 13%, CLFD up 16%, UFPI up 16%, AMR up 11%, BTU +10%, CF +11%, FCX up 8%, AVUV +10%. And many of these are pretty large holdings for me. By contrast, the S&P 500 is up 2.4% the last 7 days. I track my portfolio quite carefully, and here is how I did relative to equivalent S&P 500 investment schedule (same days/amounts): [graph](https://i.imgur.com/7C1azSK.png). That huge run-up before 2023 began was ex-US stocks. Then commodities/small caps destroyed me, and that little run-up at the end is the last 7 days of reversion. In fact, if I go to my Roth IRA, where I store most of my commodity stocks, you can [see just how rough it has been](https://i.imgur.com/pT9483V.png). By contrast, here is my [taxable portfolio](https://i.imgur.com/fHH6Awx.png) where I store my small cap value ETFs and enjoy a much bigger tech exposure. For context, here is my overall [sector tilts](https://i.imgur.com/vz3QWZ1.png) and [style tilts](https://i.imgur.com/WSmzhJk.png).
Nice day for me in small cap value (SCV), semiconductors, coal/commodities, etc. AVUV (+3.4%, SCV), AMR (+3.3%, met coal), AMD (+4.8%), BTU (+2.5%, met/thermal coal), CF (+4.5%, nitrogen fertilizer), UFPI (+4.7%, lumber products), CLFD (+3.6%, fiber broadband), PSCE (+2%, small cap energy), RKLB (+5%). SBUX is my biggest loss today (-1.6%).
What makes today special is that this is a very broad rally. It's not just mega-tech, it's [energy, materials, real estate, financials, industrials, ...](https://i.imgur.com/dYdgBxh.png). And even more importantly, today's buying is especially strong in the small caps/value. [AVUV +4%] It's all those sectors that have been hammered the last few months. I've been seeing a lot of fear / capitulation in commodities on Twitter, because everyone was getting *wrecked*. But today losses are getting wiped off the board. Like take PSCE, a small cap energy ETF full of the junkiest shale shitcos you can think of. It's up a whopping 6% after having fallen over 20% the last couple months. [I have a pretty sizeable position it] And that's with crude likely nearing its bottom for the year.
I agree on the other comments. If you want 20 baggers you don't need to pick the meme-iest stocks. How about instead look for profitable businesses in normal industries (not random futuristic tech ventures). Here's my recommendation: - Investigate small cap commodity stocks, e.g. coal (I like BTU/AMR), or important metals like tin, copper, uranium, etc. You won't get much upsider from larger miners, though. These are heavily discounted names by nature of the sector, and there are some very bullish supply trends in the past decade to benefit from. Tin exports for example are heavily impacted by sanctions/geopolitics/war (Myanmar). - Look for companies set to benefit from US subsidies. As an example, see the next point: - Take a look at battery makers, especially those that may receive loans from the US government. E.g., check out certain non-lithium batteries or the 'Long Duration Energy Storage' space--I won't name a ticker. - Look overseas, in emerging markets, for rapidly growing stocks. Maybe find an emerging market fund in a country you find undervalued (I recommend Brazil, Indonesia, for example) and see what companies are doing well recently. I was recently researching a Polish waste management company. - Go to small cap ETFs and look at the top holdings. For example, there are numerous Invesco small cap sector ETFs, PSCE, PSCI, PSCT, etc. Some of those are very high quality names with a long runway ahead of them.
I don't know individual oil names well so I just hold XOM for quality and PSCE for some high risk bets on crude oil particularly benefiting small caps
Today I bought XOM, AMR, PSCE, a microcap shitco, AVUV, AVDV. I say bring it on with the coal sell-off. (Through all the carnage of recent times, I'm down 2% on AMR, 18% on BTU, with AMR twice as large a position and now my biggest individual stock).
Did quite a bit of activity today: bought a share each of AMR, FCX, CF, AVUV, AVDV, PSCE x10; sold a single share of MSFT (to reduce its position size while it is at this attractive price).
Overall super happy with my trading day so far. Sold my entire position of UFPT at 141 with a 110 cost basis. Think it’s still a good stock but think there is better growth elsewhere. AGCO had great earnings and special div upcoming, so opened a position at 123.17 avg. Added to my KMI, PSCE, and HBM positions. Opened a position in ASO at 60.77 avg. Sold some BTU and bought some AMR. As much as I like BTUs financials, I really dislike their management.
I haven't seen any of the new earnings yet, but I did get a chance to glance at my portfolio today and damn it got hit hard. So I decided to spray and pray, and bought a little bit of everything: AMR, BTU, CLFD, PSCE, AVUV, FCX. No, AMR didn't become 7% less profitable overnight, and yes it has billions of dollars in active buybacks.
Today I bought a little bit of FCX, BTU, PSCE, AVUV, AVDV
Nice day for me due to my commodity stocks: FCX +3%, AMR +4.5%, CF +5.3%, BTU +1.2%, XOM +1%, PSCE +1%
Made a lot of moves today: - MSFT sell executed at $290 limit order - FCX buy limit order at $40 - Added to small cap ETFs: AVUV, PSCE. AVUV is heavy in financials/energy so has been hit hard recently, and PSCE is an energy ETF which is getting beat down today after a strong Monday - Added to UFPI (at my cost basis), CLFD (more or less at 52 week lows) Awaiting Apple sell limit order to hit at $170, AMD at $110, MSFT at $300. Will reallocate throughout rest of portfolio.
Well a very nice day for me. PSCE up 7%, XOM up 6%, AVDV up 1.5%, AMR up 4%, BTU 3%, and everything otherwise mildly green. Added a sell limit order to Apple at $170 (just trimming). While I'm here, let me drop some charts (who cares about my portfolio). --- Let me steal some content [from this great thread](https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1642951113673699329). Why is 'this time different' for oil and gas stocks? - [Oil and gas companies have massively deleveraged](https://i.imgur.com/eUD8n9F.png) in the past few decades. - [We are at the trough of the capex cycle](https://i.imgur.com/ced1WCL.png). Unlike in 2008, there is no decade of capital expenditures booming to lead to a sudden oversupply when demand fell. There is no savior and new supply will require new capex. In my recent [copper post](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1288qre/copper_investors_are_demonstrating_the_bystander/), I gave a [similar graph](https://i.imgur.com/vHaQpT8.png). Check it out, there are a dozen graphs making the bull case for copper/commodities. Further, as Costa points out, today we have the tailwinds of ESG mandates and much larger opposition to fossil fuels/mining *without the requisite supply alternatives or willingness to cut energy demand*. --- Next, I think the S&P Tech sector is becoming wildly overvalued. [Here is a great Twitter thread](https://twitter.com/CameronDawson/status/1642230860773466113) I sourced this content from. - We've seen YTD massive outperformance [by the tech sector](https://i.imgur.com/vMikXvO.png). (Tech +19.8% S&P +5.5% S&P ex-tech +0.62%) - While the [forward EPS growth's move lower, forward PE ratios spike](https://i.imgur.com/XlcMnHK.png). The 'B' stands for blended. Dawson writes, "Tech forward PE is +25% YTD, while Tech’s 2023 EPS growth forecast has been cut from -2% to -8% YoY." - This is an [abnormally large](https://i.imgur.com/RTz0nqJ.png) premium to the S&P 500, "even higher than at the pandemic bubble peak in late 2021!" (Dawson). - [The PE ratio of tech](https://i.imgur.com/tu53IbO.png). (The previous plot shows the premium over SPY, while this is just the raw level). So no, I'm not going to invest in the QQQ or add to my tech tilts. If anything, I shall continue to trim my tech positions ever so slightly and continue to target other sectors or broad index funds. Not that I think being short tech is advisable either, as our resident NVDA bear can attest.
I'm not *too* heavy in energy/commodities but I definitely have a significant allocation. (1.7% of portfolio in XOM, 1.8% in PSCE, 1.3% in BTU, 1.4% in AMR, 0.8% in CF, and 0.8% in FCX). Leads to a [tilt like this](https://i.imgur.com/pzvNZVr.png). I think PSCE is going to become a much larger proportion since small cap energy has been extremely discounted to the rest of the market for more than a decade now. I didn't intentionally do it but I have a really low allocation to healthcare. Since my individual stocks are mostly in tech or commodities.
My PSCE and XOM holdings about to go wild holy shit
Avantis is also reasonably heavy in energy (15%), so it got hit with a double whammy of small cap financials and small cap energy getting hit hard (look at the performance of PSCE/PSCF this month). I'm adding though (targeting long run 20% of portfolio in AVUV, 15% in AVDV). [Here is my lengthy research post](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/y9xr61/theres_more_to_index_funds_and_stocks_than_vti/) all about small cap value and AVUV/AVDV.
It's a great day for me. My small caps are rocketing (APPS up 10.5%, CLFD +7.5%, NET +6.7%, PSCE +3.2%, AVUV +2.6%, AVDV +1.3%), commodities also booming (XOM +4.4%, CF +3.3%, FCX +2.2%), and Big tech sharing in the fun: GOOG +3.5%, META +2%. So everything that got their ass-kicked the last 2 weeks. Thus, I will be revising up the guidance for my portfolio in the next 8 months. We're starting to see a critical lumbar support at -8%. Hopefully we stay in this dolphin channel for a few more days.
I bought AMR (met coal), sold small amount of AAPL. Bought PSCE (small cap oil--definitely a contrarian bet in this market). This next month: will add to AVUV/AVDV (small cap value) if more panic spreads. Will add BTU (met/thermal coal) on any extreme dips from here (< $20). Will add to FCX if it dips back down again into low/mid 30s. Will further trim MSFT/AMD if rally continues. Not really interested in opening any new positions. Just reallocating away from my biggest tech positions into small cap value index funds, and buying the dip on those commodities.
**General macro comments**: Atlanta GDPNow still at 3.2% for Q1 2023 real quarterly annualized growth, unchanged from yesterday. Next update is Friday, March 24th. Also, apparently the housing starts was way bigger than expected. I'll just add that it seems that particular statistic is extremely noisy. > Privately-owned housing starts in February 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,450,000. This is 9.8 percent (+/- 15.5%)* above the revised January 2023 estimate of 1,321,000 That is a 90% confidence interval of [-5.7, 25.3], or statistically indistinguishable from 0. If you look at the other indicators reported by the [Census Bureau Index of Economic Activity](https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/), housing start estimates have much larger confidence intervals / high uncertainty than the other ones. --- **Useless comments on my portfolio + BTU Update**: What a great day for my big tech holdings. AMD up 7.7%, GOOG up 4.7%, MSFT up 4%, SMH up 4%, META up 3.6%. I will soon be using these opportunities to trim (slightly) MSFT/AAPL/AMD as they are too big of an individual position. I'll move the cash into my small cap value ETFs, or from AMD to SMH. Meanwhile, on the commodity side, yesterday I had went pretty hard on BTU/AMR/XOM/PSCE. Today I added to CF (fertilizer). Some exciting news on BTU is that Investor Relations told some folks that they are working hard to get the surety bond covenants taken care of before March 31st, and at the worst, a little bit into April. A blackout period will start pretty soon (between quarter end and the next earnings report), so they might not get time to start capital returns. But at least an announcement about it will soon occur. Follow @8750Capital and @tradedollarnut on Twitter for more news (you won't find it anywhere else). AMR remains highly undervalued if you want an entry point. It tends to zoom up to $170 then come right back down. Eventually, the math of high met coal prices and buying out 30% of your float will win.
Nice. The last two weeks I've been buying nothing but CF/FCX/AVUV/AVDV, and today AMR/BTU/PSCE/XOM as well. (by the way, check out Seeking Alpha's page on AVDV, there was some really nice articles written about it. The case for AVDV is very compelling for a medium/longer run outlook)
I dropped about $500 into mostly energy names (AMR/XOM/BTU/PSCE) today. Honestly AMR/BTU are at *fantastic* prices and really have little to do with Europe. Great entry points.
Wow, what a dump in energy. Just bought a share each of XOM, AVUV (US small cap value), AVDV (ex-US developed small cap value), 5 shares of PSCE. Great entry point for AMR/BTU if you don't have any coal positions: those markets have little to do with European or US demand. Might add AMR.
Nice. I bought the dip in AVUV, BTU, CF, and PSCE
I added to AVUV (which is pretty heavy in financials), PSCE (small cap energy), and CF (fertilizer).
Oh shit, new GDP Nowcast album just dropped, and it's *hot*: > The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.6 percent on March 8, up from 2.0 percent on March 7. The nowcast of first-quarter growth in real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) on services increased from 3.8 percent to 5.2 percent after this morning’s international trade report from the US Census Bureau and US Bureau of Economic Analysis, which includes data used by the model to estimate spending on international travel within this PCE subcomponent. In other news, today I bought some CF, AVUV, and PSCE. I watched a Ben Felix video last night on small cap value and it reinvigorated my conviction. [Here's my enormous compilation of research](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/y9xr61/theres_more_to_index_funds_and_stocks_than_vti/) if you want to share my conviction. In the near future, I might add a tiny bit of CLFD if it trades into the 50s. Holding off on more coal purchases as it's a sufficiently large part of my Roth IRA. Here on it is small cap value or VXUS purchases mostly, as I have been sinning too much with individual stocks.
Today I bought FCX (copper) and AVUV (small cap value). I don't really understand why copper got slammed today. Must be Fed related? I really don't think Fed rate hikes are going to be able to stop the copper bull run given global fiscal tailwinds (e.g. IRA) and China's reopening. I continue to remain bullish on crude oil (but not natural gas), and I buy $PSCE every now and then on minor dips. The second half of 2023 should see a much tighter market. Atlanta Fed continues its slight downgrades. > Latest estimate: 2.0 percent — March 7, 2023 > The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.0 percent on March 7, down from 2.3 percent on March 1. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.7 percent and -6.1 percent, respectively, to 3.5 percent and -6.4 percent.
Just bought some AMR today (at my cost basis). Weird sell-off even as met coal prices are strong. I haven't bought any of my usual VTI/VXUS in 2 months. Have only been buying small cap value ETFs (AVUV/AVDV) + coal stocks (BTU/AMR) + small cap energy ETF (PSCE) + CLFD (fiber infrastructure) + UFPI (lumber products) + copper miners (FCX).
I wouldn't mind, as someone looking to buy at a discount. My favorite companies are selling off, so I'm excited to add to UFPI, BTU, AMR, CLFD, GOOG, PSCE (small cap oil ETF), and maybe provide new opportunities to enter (fertilizers, for instance).
Several stocks I own are selling off or are at attractive prices. Adding to CLFD, UFPI, FCX, maybe the others. - CLFD has been trading around low 60s even after an excellent ER, mostly due to analyst fears about backlog falling and seasonality. Fundamentally very strong company that is very cheap right now. - UFPI is trading down some 8% just because... it was reclassified as a mid-cap stock instead of small-cap? This company has been thriving the entire time, pays a dividend, does share buybacks, consistently beats earnings, ... It's still up some 16% from my cost basis (I was up 31% a few days back), but I think cheap. - BTU is selling off on thermal prices falling, but... has nothing to do with the prices it has locked in, or with met prices, which are rising. I'm likely not adding more since I already am loaded up (at slightly below today's prices). But if you missed a big earnings report bump, now could be a good time to enter. - PSCE: Small cap energy ETF, trading down with crude. I'm a bit of an oil bull, and this ETF is a bit of a bet on crude oil since small cap US energy firms are more sensitive to its daily fluctuations. It has traded at a huge discount to its larger cap peers in $XLE, for good reason, so far more upside here than in XLE which is still near ATH despite short term crude sell-offs. - FCX: Copper has a bright future ahead. This stock is probably closer to fair value than the other stocks listed here. A 3-5 year DCA in my view. Copper undersupply cannot easily change, and I'm not betting on gloomy demand.
OLPX, PSCE, APPS, RKLB are the only tickers I got under $40. PSCE is small cap energy and the largest position I have of these 4.
Why does Yahoo Finance pre/post-markets display such weird figures for some of the smaller ETFs? For example, AVUV/AVDV both are +6% after-market and Yahoo Finance makes me think I'm suddenly much richer because it includes after-market trends in your total gains. PSCE also is randomly down 4% pre-market.
Oil supermajors have already been bid up way more than the smaller oil companies out there. Personally I've been buying into a small cap energy ETF (PSCE) and targeting coal companies, because I don't see XOM and CVX as the shining opportunity they were a year (or more) ago.
Today I bought a random mixture of stocks/ETFs: 2 shares of AVDV, 1 share of AVUV, 5 shares of PSCE, 5 more shares of BTU, and a little bit to my Retirement Fund. I had just opened my BTU position recently and am slightly up 3%, so am adding while i can. There is a major catalyst coming up in the next few weeks which could see huge upside (debt covenants getting released --> shareholder returns). And downside if management does something stupid. I had also bought AMR recently and am already up some 12% so reluctant to keep on adding. Coal Twitter seems to be taking profits on AMR although noting it is still relatively cheap. I'll make a post about coal, but basically the bull thesis for the next few years isn't that prices are going to be absurdly high like earlier this year, but that the 'new low' is a lot higher. If you look at forward curves for thermal or met coal pricing into 2023/2024, they are still very high. Given that these coal companies are priced cheaply even at those prices, they are a pretty good deal, although not the multi-baggers they once were.
Fertilizer stocks / prices have been getting [destroyed recently](https://i.imgur.com/xhmqa4X.png) though. Is this something you anticipated, and does this leave your investment thesis into MOS unchanged? I am definitely very keen into commodities right now. My positions: - $XOM (up 34%, not adding and haven't been. 2% of portfolio) - $PSCE (-2.5%. I add every now and then, just shy of 2%. This is small cap energy ETF). Extremely cheap valuations relative to $XLE. What I am interested in: - $FCX. Very bullish on copper, more so than oil. I'm just waiting for the right entry point but worry I will miss it. - Coal stocks. Most interested in $AMR and $BTU, the cheapest of the bunch. Whitehaven coal also caught my eye, as they should benefit from China importing from Australia after relaxing the rules. BTU should have its debt covenents lifted soon and unleash shareholder returns hopefully. And AMR is just very cheap and already doing heavy buybacks. - Steel: I'm less familiar with this part of the market... I've heard good things about X, but really am not sure going into a global slowdown is the right time to buy steel. - Aluminum: Alcoa caught my eye but the market seems too volatile for me. China dumping the market and it seems supply can come online very quickly. - Same story with Lithium, supply coming online quickly. So really what I would add to if at all are: FCX, and one of BTU or AMR this year.
I wrote this 5-6 months ago, you can judge which ones I was wrong/right about. [Link](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/wgqxn0/rstocks_daily_discussion_fundamentals_friday_aug/). > > 1. SPR will eventually end and need replenishing (bullish) > 2. OPEC spare capacity is nearing its limits (bullish) > 3. Demand is projected to increase over the medium turn, possibly faster than supply comes online. (bullish) > 4. Freeport is offline till October, meaning less exports (so relatively more LNG supply here and less in Europe). (bearish US, bullish Europe) > 5. Europe may withdraw from oil embargo on Russia scheduled for end of year, easing the situation in the West. (bearish) > 6. Hurricane season is coming up and may shut down some drilling/refineries soon. 4 major hurricanes are projected (> category 3). (bullish) > 7. Crack spreads have come down quite a bit, faster than expected. This can reverse quickly. (bearish) > 8. Europe is switching from gas to oil due to shortages, which will increase pressure on crude oil (bullish oil, bearish gas) > 9. Libya, while unstable, is starting to put out more regular exports to Europe and elsewhere (bearish) > 10. Russian oil output is finding buyers so net Russian supply isn't as bad as it was forecasted to be (bearish) > 11. EIA data shows weakening gas demand, but other metrics disagree (bearish but I think data is wrong) > 12. Some oil companies are priced to be profitable even at much lower oil prices. Others are... not. > 13. Some companies will be prioritizing debt reduction rather than share buybacks / dividends (bearish) > 14. Some countries may implement windfall taxes (bearish) > 15. Sanctions may be lifted from Iran (bearish) > 16. The ratio of sour/sweet in the SPR is changing, and apparently one is preferable to the other . From Twitter, "Sour oil is more rough and crude. Harder to refine and we usually don’t refine it for us usage. Sweet oil is easy to refine and we use it in the us." (Possible bullish) > 17. Refineries running at full capacity is dangerous: accidents more likely to happen. A single accident can impact production output substantially. (bullish item being refined, bearish other oil products/crude) > 18. A cap-ex cycle takes many years to ramp up, and so far, it really isn't ramping up. There are also labor shortages, and shortages of critical steel piping infrastructure needed to drill. (bullish) > 19. Diesel season will ramp up as harvest time comes around. Summer is apparently relatively weak for diesel. (bullish diesel) > 20. Markets are very backwardated, which is a bullish signal, but it's not as bad as it was. Backwardated futures for oil mean the price to get oil right now (spot price) is much higher than in the future, i.e., curve slopes down. This shows tight supply, "I need oil and I need it now!" The opposite scenario is contango, when the curve slopes up, so the spot price is lower than it is in the future. > > Overall I'm bullish, but I'm cautious in where I'm putting my money. I stick to XOM and a tiny position in PSCE (small cap energy ETF). Unless an 08 recession happens, I see 2-3 years of good returns with huge volatility.
I don't mind this pullback at all. I think SPY is getting ahead of itself. I've been barely buying VTI for a month or two. Most of my buys have been exclusively small cap value ETFs, small cap energy (PSCE), and the occasional stock. Morningstar put out an article on small caps and here are some of their [figures](https://imgur.com/a/SsexBCt), including the PE ratios across asset classes as well as their own 'fair value' calculations if that means anything. [Bank of America](https://i.imgur.com/m3262WC.png) agrees. We are seeing a strong American economy right now, and historically cheap and *profitable* small cap stocks are going to continue to do well (I do not recommend a general small cap fund like VB which is full of unprofitable junk). I'm less confident about the giant multinational corporations that have had a decade of outperformance and are exposed to a volatile global economy. > UNITED AIRLINES CEO: "If I didn't watch @CNBC in the morning -- which I do -- the word 'recession' wouldn't be in my vocabulary. You just can't see it in our data." The people saying we were in a recession early/mid 2022 were just plain wrong. Those anticipating a recession in 2023 are probably closer to correct. The Atlanta GDPNow Q4 forecast fell from 4.3% to 2.8% and went back up to 3.4% (again, that's real GDP growth). And that's not just due to a strong dollar since the USD has lost about half its gains YTD in recent months (which is good news, in my view). Right now the macrobears are repeatedly talking about how strong the American consumer is and why that's bad for equities. Maybe it's bad for big tech or the huge automakers.
The supply thesis has not and will not change for the next 5 years. US shale isn't coming to the rescue even still. It's all coming to the demand side, that's really the only bear case (and China is really the big question mark here). I'll be adding to XOM/CVX on any major dips, and occasionally throwing in a few shares of PSCE (small cap energy). A recession could definitely bring oil back down into the 60s/70s for a bit. Whenever that opportunity comes, it will also be an incredibly good time to load up on copper mining stocks. Positions: XOM @ 82 and PSCE @ 10
SBUX; up 8%; XOM up 39%, PSCE up 15%, JPM up 4%, AVUV up 4%. These are long term in that I don't plan on selling them (except maybe PSCE after a year) but I've only been buying them in 2022 mostly and part of 2021. [I rounded these up so subtract 0.5% to be conservative]
This week's buys so far: Monday: PSCE (2 shares; small cap oil), GOOG (1), AVUV (1; small cap value US), AVDV (1; small cap value ex-US), VTI ($100), VXUS ($150) Tuesday: GOOG (1), OLPX (1), AVDV (1) Today: AVUV (1), AVDV (1), PSCE (2), OLPX (1), VTI ($100) I think the broader markets can go a bit lower, but I'm quite content with the valuations of my small cap value ETFs, bullish on oil, and Google is cheap in my opinion. Olaplex was just because I had a few bucks sitting around in my settlement fund I wanted to make disappear.
I think UFPI is one of the only companies I hold that would be considered 'small cap value' or at least 'mid cap value.' It's a holding in AVUV for what it's worth. I also hold PSCE, an ETF of small cap energy plays, and there aren't that many holdings in it. So it should overlap with AVUV.
Bruh I just invested in a small cap 2 weeks ago (OLPX) and lost 50% in one day this week. I'm *not* the guru lmao. I've been researching a lot of what /u/_hiddenscout buys (UFPI, WIRE, ATKR, MLI) for example. I also look lots of different energy picks but they are not long-term holds, more like medium term holds. I own them through the ETF PSCE. So I'm afraid I really don't have any particular other examples, and I definitely don't have the confidence to recommend them very highly.
XLE, IEO, PSCE, etc. all will pay off well.
This month so far, I've been buying usual small cap value ETFs / VTI / VXUS, opened up new positions in UFPI and OLPX, bought more small cap energy PSCE, AMD. I'm eyeing adding to my holdings SMH, JPM, PSCE, and UFPI. But I'm also running out of money, so I may only add to the one of those and rest indices.
Today I put in a limit order for AMD at $50, bought 2 shares of UFPI (they do lumber manufacturing), 5 more shares of OLPX (hair care), and a share of PSCE (small cap energy--which I think has explosive upside and volatility).
XOM up 15% the last five days, my other holding PSCE up 17%. Don't fight OPEC
Not going to lie, I have spent a few minutes glancing through your comments just to get some ticker names on my radar. I mostly stick to index funds, but I've been getting quite interested in oil/gas (I hold XOM and PSCE) for example, and now also commodities. Looking into throwing a few hundred here and there for fun. What's scary though is the price charts for commodity stocks. It seems you *really* gotta time the markets just right because the bear markets are ruthless.
My small cap value stocks doing great! AVUV up 3.4%, AVDV up 2.5%. Small cap energy (PSCE) up 6.3%. APPS up 5%.
I hold XOM and PSCE (small cap energy ETF). The popular energy ETFs are very concentrated in the oil majors (XOM, CVX, BP, etc.) so I just figured I'd pick XOM. I don't care to try and handpick lesser known oil companies myself.
XLE for major. PSCE for smaller producers. USO to play the futures price of oil. IEO is also good. For dividends look at the oil royalty trusts like SJT and MVO. LPG is on sale now with great divvy.
Simultaneously pleased XOM/PSCE is doing nicely today but also aware this is bad for the equities as a whole. Though my small cap value funds have high weight in energy (15% and 11% for AVUV/AVDV, compared to around 4.4% for the S&P 500).
Bought 6 shares of AVUV, 7 of AVDV, 4 PSCE, and $100 of VXUS
XOM and PSCE having a great day today! (I suppose that might have something to do with stocks losing some of their gains)
Just bought 10 more shares of PSCE (small cap energy). Don't feel like buying the indices today
When it comes to value and small cap stocks, picking individual tickers is tremendously riskier than say big tech. I am much more likely to end up in some value trap and make behaviorally poor decisions like selling low after years of underperformance. Thus, when it comes to smaller cap / value stocks, I stick to ETFs like AVUV (US small cap value), AVDV (ex-US developed small cap value), PSCE (small cap energy). Also on my watchlist is AVES (emerging market value), but this might be just too much risk for me. I haven't heard of nearly any of the tickers in these ETFs, which is probably part of the reason it outperforms the broader market. The upside from the index fund is more than enough to satisfy my desire for premiums. Right now, the broader market in the US is starting to move back into the overvalued direction, so while I continue to buy total market index funds, I am prioritizing these small cap value ETFs since I see substantially more upside there.
Did a lot of buys today, 6 shares of AVUV (US small cap value), 5 AVDV (ex-US small cap developed), 1 XOM, 3 PSCE (small cap energy). I slightly trimmed my stock holdings, removing a share each of AAPL, MA, V since they were growing too large in my portfolio.
The small cap energy ETF PSCE has been up 25% since July 6th (YTD up 35%). Long term, there is much more upside in small cap oil/gas than the larger caps, so curious to see how far up this goes. [I have a negligibly sized position just slightly in the red]