RBA

QFGTrialByFire

I agree shortage of housing is an issue causing some of the price increase. However in my humble opinion the main driver - at least in Aus was all that quantitative easing done in covid. That money goes out in the form of banks getting money essentially(by the RBA/Fed buying gov bonds from banks using new M0). In aus at least the easiest way for the banks to make money when they get a sudden influx of cheap money is not to invest in productive assets (takes to long to much risk). Instead its to invest in the mortgage market (fast easy 'low risk'). Hence higher bowering capacity is made available for those that already have assets eg middle-aged/older people with houses. That cheap borrowing for them incentivises buying houses which pushes up the housing market which adds to the incentive to buy as that M0 multiplies. Its the path of least resistance from the QE to housing prices and also other non productive assets as its the easiest way to make money with no work with cheap capital. Its why sudden QE always leads to asset inflation particularly housing and other non productive fixed assets. That QE was probably the largest redistribution of wealth to those who already own assets in history. Also its not easy to just stop its a multiplier effect (M2) and takes ages to undo.

indycpa7

Yes, this company is a turd, stuck in 2019 RBA, a Faux AI play

Diligent-Chicken1196

So the geniuses in government decided to slap a tariff on steel, which means the price of all the big yellow toys (excavators, loaders, etc.) is about to go to the goddamn moon. We're talking a potential 35% hike on a new half-million-dollar machine. Now, do you think construction companies, who run on razor-thin margins, are just gonna bend over and pay 35% more for a shiny new Caterpillar? HELL. NO. Their CFOs would rather light a pile of cash on fire. New equipment sales are going to fall off a cliff. This is what we in the business call "demand destruction." So where does all that money go? Smart apes follow the money. The Used Market: Every construction foreman in the country is going to be panic-buying used equipment. The price of a 5-year-old excavator with 10,000 hours on it is about to look like a steal. They'll pay a fortune to keep their projects running. The Rental Fleet: Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for a fraction of the price? Companies will rent EVERYTHING. Why take on a massive new loan when you can just rent a machine for the 6-month job? Rental fleet utilization is going to spike like crazy. The Repair Bay: They will keep their ancient, rusty machines alive with duct tape and prayers. "The engine is smoking?" Slap some new parts in it. "The hydraulics are leaking?" More fluid! The demand for parts and service will be insane. THE PLAY - HOW WE GET OUR TENDIES: Forget shorting the manufacturers, that's complicated. The real play is to go long on the companies that will clean up from this chaos. United Rentals ($URI): This is the king. The 800-pound gorilla of the rental world. They have the largest fleet on the planet. Their phones are going to be melting. This is the most obvious 🚀 in the entire play. Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers ($RBA): Where do you think everyone will be fighting over used gear? RBA is the world's biggest auction house for heavy equipment. They are literally the casino for this shift, and the house always wins. They take a cut of every single inflated sale. Herc Holdings ($HRI): Another huge rental player. Think of it as URI's little brother who also hits the gym. A solid choice if you want to diversify your rental bets. This isn't a guess, it's an inevitability. The government has created a market distortion, and we're here to profit from it. New equipment is out, used and rental is in. Load up on URI and RBA. This is not financial advice, I eat crayons for a living. To the moon. 🚀🚀🚀

AlfrescoDog

🇦🇺 Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised its market with a decision to leave its rate unchanged at 3.85%. The market had been expecting a 25-basis-point rate cut, but in a 6-3 decision, they opted for a wait-and-see approach. **Why would you care?** On Jul 1, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed would have likely cut rates already if not for the size of the tariffs. That was before the first Trade Letters from this week had even been sent out. Similarly, 🇦🇺 Governor Michele Bullock chose to be cautious, opting to wait for evidence on trade impacts. **What does that mean?** In less than ten days, that's two Western central banks that are openly stating they're choosing caution and a wait-and-see approach, not based on what's happening *now*, but in *anticipation* of trade impacts. Meanwhile, NVDA is the first $4 trillion company, and the market is at ATHs. Now, I'm certainly not saying you should be bearish, but just keep in mind that there are two central banks with a lot of brainy egg-heads who are feeling hesitant about what's up ahead.

ConfederacyOfDunces_

They only added a stock called RBA (RB Global)

TheFellhanded

That article said it was variable rate mortgages, the RBA and ScoMo's over stimulus causing the issues. None of those are to do with the current government.  Like, I don't know enough and honestly economic policy is a bit outside my skill set, however that article puts the economy at the feet of nearly everyone but the current government.

CriticalBeautiful631

China is Australia’s leading export destination with 32.5% of exports (US is3.5%. Today the CEO of Australia‘s biggest bank did an interview on the ABC News. It gives an outside perspective from this side of the world ie: the global trading system is being re-written, Australia meeds China to be doing well economically to be ok, Australia is well positioned for 2025 so he sees no reason for the RBA to increase interest rates and isn’t that worried for Aussies …it’s on ABC News YouTube as “Trumped by Tariffs” China has been investing all over the world…about 86% of Australian mining rights are foreign owned - 30% USA, 25% China, 15% Canada, 10% UK. US have their comms hubs in Australia at Pine Gap and Exmouth. China owns the leases of the Port of Melbourne, Darwin and Newcastle (just up from Sydney). The spread of Chinese soft power around the world has been growing - the White House keeps talking about “allies” and the question is “what allies?”..when the USA has launched a global trade war they no longer have allies (except for the countries they exempted ). In the words of both the Aussie and Singaporean PM “this is not the act of a friend”. Australia will keep our head down while the big dogs fight it out, but our alliance is with our Asia-Pacific neighbours. There is free trade in the region and it covers 30% of the worlds GDP and population .

Jeff__Skilling

My knee jerk reaction here is "Okay, this seems to be the /r/stocks consensus......and every time over the last 5 years this sub has agreed on **anything** it's been wrong ~90% of the time" And though past performance isn't indicative of future returns....[the 5Y absolute return from the S&P 500 vs the MSCI Europe index and 10Y UST](https://imgur.com/RBA6y76) would seem to agree with the whole "inverse reddit" investment thesis...... RemindMe! 12 months

brett_baty_is_him

Said at the beginning of the week that this was a shit earnings week. No solid names. Lost on Talk, Band, and Trmb. Won on RBA but down around $4k overall. Throwing $3k on Fivn calls and calling it a week. If I lose this I may stop gambling on options for a bit

brett_baty_is_him

Have RBA (ER today) and Trimble (ER tm morning) calls

aa73gc

RBA announces interest rates shortly. With an election looming no doubt they will cut

dvdmovie1

This. The automobile business was never a great business for investors (with a couple of exceptions), then everyone thought that every EV anything was potentially the next Tesla from 2020-2022 bubble and now we're back to "it really isn't a great business for investors." Junkyard company Copart has been a much better investment (and is a great business, plus basically a duopoly with lesser RBA) than any of the legacy car cos.

SnoweCat7

Yep, Australia hasn't though as OP wrote above. Conditions aren't ripe enough yet. Canada: inflation 2.7%, unemployment 6.1%, central bank rate 4.75% Australia: inflation 3.6%, unemployment 4%, central bank rate 4.35% Some people are still muttering that the RBA should raise rates more especially with tax cuts starting in July.

MaTr82

No way I'm reading that post. The only person that turned it into a dick measuring competition was you. At no point did I compare it to anywhere else. You said Australia had moderate growth, I disputed that with yesterday's RBA announcements.

sportsntravel

Paper handed RBA for a loss and its mooned fml

ivanss36

I'm strictly technically orientated, and looking at the big four Daily charts they all had nice extended rally and now starting to form either double top or lower highs. I might be wrong, rally could easily extend but i got this gut feeling that it might take a breather for a minute and retrace, who knows if RBA decides to cut interest rate with in few months its a perfect setup. Both technical and fundamentals ticked.

Fluid-Philosophy-666

Check out 'UPST - Upstart Holding Inc.' https://preview.redd.it/eejk1qucff4c1.png?width=2214&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eac2da8efb14c9ae8e470f2f060343f73de08153 Upstart is a cloud-based artificial intelligence (Al) lending platform founded in 2012. The share price peaked at around $390 in late 2021 during the zero interest times and has bottomed at around $12 at the end of last year and May this year. Now the stock sits at around $34. I think that company has a huge potential of skyrocketing again. For some reason this company is one of the top 5 most shorted stocks at the moment. Apparently they think they will shut down which I think is very unlikely. I believe as soon the RBA starts cutting rates, this stock is going to explode again, probably even before that. I bought it at $29 mid 2022, since then it hit $72 briefly. It is still up 90% percent over the last year and 150% YTD.

Fluid-Philosophy-666

What about 'UPST - Upstart Holdings Inc.' Just an idea if you wanna make 100k next year. https://preview.redd.it/7zmx0hctfd4c1.png?width=2214&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bb76fcdca9841a48e17ef263cb4ccbbfc7f4365e Upstart is a cloud-based artificial intelligence (Al) lending platform founded in 2012. The share price peaked at around $390 in late 2021 during the zero interest times and has bottomed at around $12 at the end of last year and May this year. Now the stock sits at around $34. I think they have a huge potential of skyrocketing again. For some reason this company is one of the top 5 most shorted stocks at the moment. Apparently they think they will shut down which I think is very unlikely. I believe as soon the RBA starts cutting rates, this stock is going to explode again. I bought it at $29 mid 2022, since then it hit $72 briefly. It is still up 90% percent over the last year and 150% YTD.

Fluid-Philosophy-666

What about 'UPST - Upstart Holdings Inc.' https://preview.redd.it/ym46ya41dd4c1.png?width=2214&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=42f720010aec47a1ff3b625d4fa414de75d3ad3e Upstart is a cloud-based artificial intelligence (Al) lending platform founded in 2012. The share price peaked at around $390 in late 2021 during the zero interest times and has bottomed at around $12 at the end of last year and May this year. Now the stock sits at around $34. I think they have a huge potential of skyrocketing again. For some reason this company is one of the top 5 most shorted stocks at the moment. Apparently they think they will shut down which I think is very unlikely. I believe as soon the RBA starts cutting rates, this stock is going to explode again. I bought it at $29 mid 2022, since then it hit $72 briefly. It is still up 90% percent over the last year and 150% YTD.

Funztimes

Consensus is we will, 33 out of 35 market economist say yes. But it will also depend on if the 'independent' RBA has the balls to do it. A lot of pressure put on the Government at the moment to not raise.

7Zarx7

Australian RBA boss recently got the boot because of poor coms and bad optics with publics.He and Powell were chummy. Beyond that, looks like more pain coming to US, but at least he will now tell you why, and may get to keep his job.

InqJoan

Really should have asked chatGPT... I don't use it enough... for anyone that's interested: Interest rates on business saver accounts are typically lower than those on personal savings accounts for several reasons, and this phenomenon is not unique to Australia; it's a global trend. Here are some factors that contribute to this difference: Risk Assessment: Banks consider business accounts to be riskier than personal accounts. Businesses may have more volatile cash flows, and their financial stability can be affected by economic downturns or market fluctuations. To compensate for this increased risk, banks offer lower interest rates on business accounts. Regulatory Requirements: There are often different regulatory requirements and capital adequacy standards for business accounts compared to personal accounts. Banks may need to set aside more capital to cover potential losses associated with business accounts, which can impact their ability to offer higher interest rates. Competitive Landscape: Banks compete for personal savings deposits because they are typically more stable and less risky than business deposits. This competition can drive up interest rates on personal savings accounts. On the other hand, businesses have a wider range of financial services and investment options, so banks may not need to offer as competitive rates to attract their deposits. Relationship Banking: Banks often build long-term relationships with businesses by providing them with various financial services, such as loans, credit lines, and merchant services. Offering lower interest rates on business savings accounts can be a way for banks to encourage businesses to use their other services. Size and Volume: Personal savings accounts tend to be smaller in terms of the average account balance and transaction volume compared to business accounts. Banks can manage a higher volume of personal accounts, which allows them to offer slightly higher interest rates to attract a larger customer base. Economic Factors: Economic conditions and central bank policies also play a role. The central bank's overnight cash rate, like the RBA rate in Australia, sets a baseline for interest rates in the economy. However, market conditions, demand for loans, and other economic factors can influence the rates banks offer on both personal and business accounts. Overall, the lower interest rates on business saver accounts are a result of a combination of risk considerations, regulatory requirements, competition dynamics, and relationship banking strategies. While it might seem counterintuitive given the RBA's cash rate, banks take a more holistic approach when setting interest rates for different types of accounts to manage their risk and profitability.

InqJoan

Anyone able to tell me why business saver account interest rates so low compared to personal accounts? I'm from Australia if that context helps, not sure what it is like in other countries. The saver accounts seem to offer \~2.5 percentage points lower than the RBA overnight cash rate (our equivalent to the fed funds rate). I would've expected that to be the bottom. I tried to google an answer but couldn't find anything helpful >:

Sweaty_Feedback_4859

Ahh, after that cunt from BOFA that capitulated yesterday, now they released the position of Harnett He's still bearish. FTW Michael Hartnett, BofA | We Still Remain Bearish Because The Math Does Not Add Up As the "recession fears of Q1" are melting into the "Goldilocks greed of Q2"; the result is euphoria: - the broad NYSE index (US/global stocks + bond ETFs) is annualizing 7.7% total return, - IG annualizing 7.5%, - S&P500 breaking out bull market bubbly (although excluding the "Magnificent 7", the S&P is up a teeny 1.2% YTD) - rising rates and the coming liquidity drain are the key negative Q3 risks for longs in IG bonds, AI, US tech, EU luxury; on the other hand, no recession/China stimulus are the main positive Q3 risks for shorts in oil, China, REITs, banks, retail - central banks are pivoting, with two central banks surprising on the hawkish side as both the RBA & BoC unexpectedly hike and join the Norges Bank in restarting rate hikes after a brief “pause” - Australia/Canada 2-year yields @ 12 & 16-year highs, and both are correlated to US yields - Fed ain’t done with hikes...we stick with “sell the last rate hike” call; watch Canada & Aussie FX...weaker on back of rate hikes = tell renewed hiking big “policy mistake - a policy mistake will materialize: the “quiet credit crunch”, 30 large US companies defaulting in the past 5 months, and 11 in the past 4 weeks (vs 40 in 2022) - watch the June NFIB Small Business Optimism survey (Tuesday) where a fresh decline in small business “credit availability” (say -10 or lower) will kick in just as unemployment claims are turning higher, and interrupts the new “no recession ‘23” narrative - while stocks have seen a modest pick up in fund flows in recent weeks, the bulk of new money is going to money markets (cash), to wit: asset allocators most prominent allocation in 2023 = long cash, long IG bonds, short stocks; IG bond inflows up >$100bn YTD while equity flows basically flat since Feb’22 ...a market truism when investors love IG bonds, stocks do well

SpaceTabs

He's perfect for the job due to "Lowe received a taxpayer subsidised home loan for his five bedroom residence in Randwick, New South Wales in 1997, the same time when he was appointed the head of the RBA's Economics Research Department. The property was bought for over $1 million assisted by a half-price loan from the RBA". also "These losses left the Reserve Bank technically insolvent and as a result Lowe and the Federal Treasurer agreed to halt all dividends to Australian tax payers until the Reserve Bank returned to positive equity, estimate to take until at least 2032." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_Lowe#Career

StockGoUpStockGoDown

I like that you explained what the RBA is and then proceeded to riff Bubble o Bill, which I assume no other country will understand. Peak dichotomy. But yes, he is a fucking idiot

latending

The RBA became insolvent and has had all dividends suspended to the Federal Government until 2032 in order to recuperate the losses.

W0nderWhite

For context: the RBA is the Australian central bank (Reserve Bank Australia) and Bubble O'Phil over here isn't going to be the governor past November

tom3277

He doesnt have billions. He gets paid $1M AUD per year to run our RBA. This is sitting on the reserve banks balance sheet. To be fair i would imagine if the USA accounted for its bond buying programs in the same way your US fed would have lost a lot more as rates have risen... Lowe only extended half a trillion or so to our australian banks in term funding. Thats where this loss comes from.

FunCranberry112122

RBA did a surprise hike. BOC did a surprise hike. Therefore Fed will do a surprise hike in June

mark2talyho

RBA just hiked rates when they were expected to pause. JPOW your move.

Whatdosheepdreamof

Here you go https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/sp-ag-2018-09-19.html This is a speech by the RBA governor that clearly states money is fractionally created by the banking system as a whole. Banking systems across countries operate fairly similarly or run the risk of destabilizing their own currency in relation to other currencies. Now; KNOWING that banks create money on the promise of repayment. Do you think the bank is able to spend the additional money that has been fully repaid by a customer? If you think this, you are an absolute moron. You do not understand the banking system.

mrmrmrj

$RBA - the recent acquisition has a lot of costs to take out. $ATVI - either with or without the MSFT deal, solid upside here. $PCVX - this company WILL be bought in the next few years for $100/share or better after recent phase 2 success.

My-Internet-Persona

The fact that these two monetary policies are correlated in a global economy should not surprise, and does not mean that they are dependent on each other. For an analogy, the Reserve Bank of Australia is also increasing its rates, but this does not mean that the Fed is dependent on RBA. The only truth is that most economies in the world have become tightly correlated, so the moves of their central banks have also become synchronised.

My-Internet-Persona

The fact that these two monetary policies are correlated in a global economy should not surprise, and does not mean that they are dependent on each other. For an analogy, the Reserve Bank of Australia is also increasing its rates, but this does not mean that the Fed is dependent on RBA. The only truth is that almost most economies in the world have become tightly correlated, so the moves of their central banks have also become synchronised.

waffleschoc

our australia govt just recently stipped our central bank (RBA) of the poweres to set interest rates, look like our govt figured out that our central bank did not have the peoples interest in mind

VisualMod

>Happy Monday all! \>Reminder: Public Holiday (EU) Today. Markets may be closed. \>Economic events this week (AEST): Tues: RBA Rate + EU CPI Wed: NZ Unemployment + AUS Retails + US ADP employment Thurs: Fed Rate + Presser + ECB Rate Fri: EU Retails + US Nonfarms + CAD Unemployment ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2023-04-30 ^18:02:13 ^EDT-0400

jr1tn

RBA

pancace1234

On a stock like RBA, call volume, 200, put volume, 350 Is it easy to get like 40 - 50 contracts filled and sell after a few days? I guess so? Or? Also, is the call volume 200, for all strikes in total, for all expirations? In that case, if i choose expiration 100 day and one certain strikeprice, its basically no volume there, if the total volume for calls was 200, or?

VisualMod

>RBA: WELCOMES THE REVIEW PANEL’S SUPPORT FOR THE CURRENT MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-04-19 ^20:34:12 ^EDT-0400

VisualMod

>RBA MEETINGS CUT TO 8 WITH PRESS CONFERENCES AFTER EACH ONE ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2023-04-19 ^20:10:15 ^EDT-0400

VisualMod

>RBA: IMPORTANT TO BE CLEAR THAT POLICY MAY NEED TO BE TIGHTENED AGAIN TO CURB INFLATION IN TIMELY MANNER ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-04-17 ^21:32:30 ^EDT-0400

VisualMod

>AUSTRALIA TREASURER CHALMERS: SAYS TO RELEASE RBA REVIEW REPORT SOON, PERHAPS WITHIN A WEEK ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-04-16 ^21:16:29 ^EDT-0400

VisualMod

>Good morning all and happy Monday! \>Economic events this week (AEST): Tues: RBA Minutes, Lagarde speech, China GDP, UK unemployment, BoC CPI Wed: UK CPI, EU CPI Thurs: NZ CPI, China Interest rate Fri: Japan CPI, UK retail sales, CAD Retail sales \>What's everyone looking to? ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2023-04-16 ^18:57:04 ^EDT-0400

Neophyte-

aussie here. the central bank in my case the RBA needs to consider all factors when raising rates that includes mass mortgage defaults. as their goals state: price stability, full employment, economic stability. they wont hike rates to the point where a significant portion of borrowers default on their home loans. I've read that an aggregate 7% default rate would ruin the banking system here.

VisualMod

>RBA'S LOWE: GETTING INFLATION DOWN FASTER WOULD LEAD TO MORE JOB LOSSES ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-04-04 ^23:03:34 ^EDT-0400

VisualMod

>RBA'S LOWE SAYS APRIL PAUSE DOESN'T IMPLY RATE HIKES ARE OVER ^FXHedge ^[@Fxhedgers](http://twitter.com/Fxhedgers) ^at ^2023-04-04 ^22:33:01 ^EDT-0400

Southern_Chef420

The RBA paused rates yesterday and the Fed is only increasing by 25 bps so I have no idea what planet you’re on but the hiking cycle is almost over

VisualMod

>RBA LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 3.60% ^FXHedge ^[@Fxhedgers](http://twitter.com/Fxhedgers) ^at ^2023-04-04 ^00:32:54 ^EDT-0400

VisualMod

>Happy Monday everyone! \>Economic events this week (Times in AEST): Tues: US PMI + RBA Interest rate 25bp hike expected Wed: RBNZ Interest rate + US Employment change Thurs: AU Trade balance + CAD Employment change Fri: US Non farms \>What's everyone looking to this week? ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2023-04-02 ^18:10:40 ^EDT-0400

rp_whybother

and the RBA thinks they have inflation under control 

VisualMod

>RBA: INFLATION TOO HIGH, LABOUR MARKET TIGHT AND BUSINESS SURVEYS SOLID ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-20 ^20:32:28 ^EDT-0400

VisualMod

>RBA: BOARD NOTED AUSTRALIAN INTEREST RATES BELOW SEVERAL OTHER COUNTRIES, COULD EFFECT A$ ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-20 ^20:32:35 ^EDT-0400

VisualMod

>RBA MINUTES FROM POLICY MEETING OF MARCH 7 PRECEDING STRESS IN GLOBAL BANKING SYSTEM ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-20 ^20:32:22 ^EDT-0400

VisualMod

>Happy Monday! Economic events this week: \>(In AEDT) Monday: PBoC Interest rate Tuesday: RBA Minutes & BoC CPI Wednesday: UK CPI Thursday: Fed Interest rate & SNB Interest rate & UK Interest rate Friday: Japan CPI & CAD Retail sales \>What's everyone looking to this week? ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-19 ^19:49:21 ^EDT-0400

VisualMod

>WESTPAC NOW SEES RBA PAUSING IN APRIL, LOWERS EXPECTED RATE PEAK BY 25BP TO 3.85% ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-16 ^20:42:53 ^EDT-0400

NoGuidance

24 Years Old, Moderately Aggressive Portfolio Large Cap - 40% - VOO (VANGUARD S&P 500 ETF) Small Cap - 30% - RWJ (INVESCO S&P SMALLCAP 600REV ETF ) International - 10% - HEDJ (WISDOMTREE EUROPE HEDGEDEQTY ETF) Insurance Sector - 10% - KBWP (INVSC KBW PRPRTY CSLTY INS ETF ) Semi-Conductor Sector - 10% - AIRR (FT RBA AMERICAN IND RENAISSANCE ETF )

SnS2500

AIRR: First Trust RBA American Industrial Renaissance ETF PAVE: Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF AIRR is +12% ytd. PAVE is +9%. (GRID is +8%, IFRA +4%)

Pete_The_Pilot

I've been looking at this one. So is the play $RBA or $IAA here?

_Flipside_

Hawkish Powell, relatively dovish RBA

VisualMod

>AUSTRALIA (MAR) RBA CASH RATE TARGET ACTUAL: 3.60% VS 3.35% PREVIOUS;EST 3.60% ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-06 ^22:31:12 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>RBA +25BPS ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-06 ^22:30:14 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>15 minutes to RBA ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-06 ^22:14:30 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>Happy RBA day! https://t.co/d6EOunkB3e ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-06 ^17:22:42 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>Good morning all and happy Monday! \>Economic events this week (AEDT) Tues - RBA interest rate Wed - Powell Testifies + RBA Lowe speech + German Retail sales + EU GDP Thurs - US Employment change + BoC Interest rate + JPY GDP + China CPI Fri - BoJ Interest rate + German CPI ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-05 ^17:53:01 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>Will be even more pressure on RBA to adjust (implied) forward rate projections given these lower inflation & GDP numbers ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2023-02-28 ^19:51:05 ^EST-0500

Blazzck7

What is RBA

Canuckian16

RBA?

Big-Toe6215

Their immediate talking points were as follows: 1. Higher for longer. 2. Lots more work to do. 3. Restrictive monetary policy. ​ This is not that far removed from Jackson Hole when Powell came out and told the world not to buy into the hype that inflation is going to be cured soon. ​ Bullard said he would have been in favor of 50 bps based on PPI and CPI. ​ Tomorrow is jobless reports, GDP and more Fed speak. ​ I wouldn't be surprised for that options-clearing candle after the minutes are released because otherwise this market is going to face a steeper and faster Volmageddon. ​ Australia's RBA minutes were released before the bell yesterday. It's one of the reasons that the markets turned south in a hurry. Then WMT and HD reported and all hell broke lose.

Big-Toe6215

> > >After seeing the VIX relatively flat for the last basically 2 months straight the VIX has had an incredible 28.2% rally from Thursdays low to today HOD. 28.2% in 3 days is pretty incredible. And honestly its more incredible that SPY has only put in one -2% day during that whole time period. > >Actually its pretty incredible that through all of last week with CPI, and PPI that we on a random Tuesday get a -1% red day and the biggest/ worst red day of the year yet… seems a little interesting to me. ​ ​ What was off (read: manipulated) were the V-shaped recoveries on light volume. And it wasn't a random day. Australia's RBA minutes were released along with guidance from HD and WMT that basically said to expect less earnings this year. The RBA minutes were incredibly bearish (dovish on their policy due to economic headwinds).

VisualMod

>Nothing of note in these RBA minutes - AUD & ASX futures unphased https://t.co/usab9cEbJv ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2023-02-20 ^19:46:45 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>RBA: MONTHLY MEETINGS ALLOWED FOR FREQUENT ADJUSTMENTS, RATES ALREADY RISEN SUBSTANTIALLY ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-02-20 ^19:33:03 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>RBA: LONGER INFLATION STAYED HIGH, GREATER THE RISK OF PRICE-WAGE SPIRAL ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-02-20 ^19:32:51 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>RBA minutes out at 1130 today. ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2023-02-20 ^17:41:38 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>RBA GOV LOWE: WE ARE NOT ON A PREDETERMINED PATH ON INTEREST RATES ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-02-16 ^20:03:09 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>AUD lower following this weak jobs data. \>RBA policy to come under increasing scrutiny...... https://t.co/GKJyQff2vB ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2023-02-15 ^19:33:09 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>RBA GOV LOWE: RISK THAT WE HAVE NOT YET DONE ENOUGH ON INTEREST RATES ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-02-14 ^19:28:15 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>RBA: BOARD EXPECTS FURTHER INCREASES IN INTEREST RATES WILL BE NEEDED ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-02-09 ^19:33:40 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>RBA: GDP SEEN AT 1.6% Y/Y END 2023, 1.6% END 2024, 1.7% JUNE 2025 ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-02-09 ^19:33:18 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>AUSSIE DOLLAR STAYS ELEVATED POST-RBA RATE HIKE, LAST 0.79% HIGHER AT $0.6937 ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-02-07 ^01:53:43 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>RBA: CENTRAL FORECAST IS FOR THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE TO INCREASE TO 3¾ PER CENT BY THE END OF THIS YEAR AND 4½ PER CENT BY MID-2025. ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-02-06 ^22:35:41 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>RBA: The Central Forecast Is For CPI Inflation To Decline To 4¾ Per Cent This Year And To Around 3 Per Cent By Mid-2025. \>GDP Growth Expected To Slow To Around 1½ Per Cent Over 2023 And 2024. \>The Labour Market Remains Very Tight. ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-02-06 ^22:34:12 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>AUD/USD spiking higher as ASX sells off post RBA announcement. ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2023-02-06 ^22:34:04 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>RBA RAISES CASH RATE TARGET 25 BASIS POINTS TO 3.35% ^FXHedge ^[@Fxhedgers](http://twitter.com/Fxhedgers) ^at ^2023-02-06 ^22:30:40 ^EST-0500

itsgettingcoldhere

RBA's no surprise gonna pop futures

VisualMod

>30 minutes to RBA ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2023-02-06 ^22:05:30 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>Happy Monday Everyone! Economic events this week (Times in AEDT): \>Monday: EU Retail sales Tuesday: RBA Interest rate Wednesday: BoC speech + Powell speech Friday: Ger CPI + UK GDP + China CPI \>What's everyone looking to this week??? ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2023-02-05 ^17:11:33 ^EST-0500

SailboatInCartagena

Short AUS “Economists see a pressure point in the economy when the roughly A$370 billion ($260 billion) of these loans shift to variable rates this year. “The second quarter of 2023 is when fixed-rate mortgages start to roll off aggressively,” said James Wilson, a senior fund manager in Melbourne at Jamieson Coote Bonds, which oversees about $4.2 billion. “The RBA will be cognizant of that so we may see a pause after the March meeting.”

VisualMod

>AUD sliding further now, ASX rallying - few bets being placed the RBA making a dovish shift ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2023-01-18 ^19:41:44 ^EST-0500

Embarrassed-Egg-545

RBA in aus promised no rate rises and we got the exact opposite. Sounds stupid to bet the opposite but they’ve shown time and time again that they will do what they want, when they want and who gives af about what they said.

Potential_Project_48

BOJ news doesn’t matter. All it means is after the RBA/BOJ YCC experiments the Fed has learned to never try it. Fed YCC would mean hedge funds & risk parity funds would lever the target rate at least 40:1, so if the Fed ever changed their mind there would be a financial collapse

VisualMod

>Morning all and happy Monday! \>Economic events this week: \>Tues: UK Unemployment rate + GER CPI Wed: US CPI + RBA Lowe speech + UK CPI Thurs: FOMC Interest rate + AU Unemployment rate + SNB Interest rate + UK Interest rate Fri: ECB Interest rate + US Retail sales \>Busy busy! ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2022-12-11 ^17:04:19 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>RBA: PATH TO ACHIEVING THE NEEDED DECLINE IN INFLATION AND ACHIEVING A SOFT LANDING FOR THE ECONOMY REMAINS A NARROW ONE ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2022-12-05 ^22:32:46 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>\*\* RBA in 15 minutes \*\* \>Exp 25bps hike to 3.10% from 2.85%. ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2022-12-05 ^22:14:55 ^EST-0500

Aubriz

ING, 100k in one, 50k in the other. They've consistently put their rates up to match the RBA. Term deposits don't make sense for another few months until things have coolednoff and rates look like dropping.

VisualMod

>Just under 30 mins to RBA ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2022-12-05 ^21:04:33 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>RBA set for 2:30pm AEDT today: 0.25% raise expected. The NZ, US and UK banks saw raises of 0.75% at their last meetings will we see a more aggressive hike? ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2022-12-05 ^18:25:02 ^EST-0500

Beefy1212

[RBA $37bn Accounting Loss](https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/21/reserve-bank-of-australia-rba-reports-loss-plans-to-cut-treasury-dividends-review-bond-buying-purchase-program) weak lol

VisualMod

>RBA GOVERNOR LOWE SAYS WAGE GROWTH CONSISTENT WITH INFLATION RETURNING TO TARGET ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2022-11-27 ^18:40:26 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>RBA GOVERNOR LOWE SAYS FISCAL SETTINGS NOT NOTICEABLY IMPACTING MONETARY POLICY ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2022-11-27 ^18:23:42 ^EST-0500