52 Week High
52 Week Low
7 Days Mentions
Definitely looking like fresh lows on the menu tomorrow. I got a whole smorgasbord of shorts loaded up ready to rock God bless these beautifully horrible tickers and the service they provide us profiteers: SNAP PYPL ABNB SHOP MTCH COIN CRWD And of course, the greatest invention ever in the history of the market: SARK If anyone has some other juicy ETB shorts please share with the class
That is also true too, which doesn’t bode well for these valuations to hold true as a floor. Multiple contraction, reverting to the mean, would be a good indicator that the market is settling. Look at SHOP, went from $2000 to $1100 in a matter of weeks. Valuation is still trading at a “rich” valuation, even at this share price halving. This could easily go to $500 and still maybe just be considered somewhat in the reasonable range.
Major tech has some surprising low PE ratios but lot of others have some in the 100s I’m debating abandoning SQ , Generac, SHOP to free up cash to buy other more reasonable priced stock and I’ll hold till earnings as they are all small position
Bulls really be like, " Hey guys do you think I should buy SHOP calls I think it is undervalued I think we will see it go up another 3,000٪ in a couple year that seems like safe and healthy growth to me doesn't seem like a bubble at all no me, nope no way." ![img](emote|t5_2th52|6880)
Right. I was talking about other tech firms like OLO, TOST, SOFI, SQ, SHOP etc All of these seem to have close to no debt. All of the ones that you described are platform companies and I think platforms generally have a ton of costs from being a middleman and having to spend on s&m. So I guess we are agreed that platform tech is overleveraged and overhyped. Time for them to die. Also, sorry for sounding a little rude. Just reread my message and I defn did not mean to come across condescending!
SHOP & SOFI are reasonable to cheap imo. I've not looked into TDOC or FVRR recently. At this point most growth stocks I look into are reasonably valued to undervalued. UPST is very cheap, although it's bounced quite a bit the last couple of days. That said I tend to only buy growth stocks which are top-in-class businesses in large growing sectors. While I might think something like FVRR & TDOC is cheap I would be nervous about the sectors they operate in. I don't think it's clear how big their TAM is yet which means you have to believe both in the company and the growth potential of the sector overall. I will buy into these kinds of stocks from time to time as short-term plays with UPST being an example of that, but I would view these stocks are more risky.
Buffett has spoken about how stupid it is to categorise some stocks as growth stocks and other stocks as value stocks because fair value depends on growth and most value names are value names for a reason. You want growth at a fair price, the problem is most people don't know how to identify what a fair price is for growth because they're comparing metrics directly with relatively stagnant companies. People forget how companies like FB used to trade with a PS in the high teens / low twenties and a PE over 100 during a period when interest rates were much higher. Stock like SHOP trading at a 25 PS and 150ish TTM PE today are just not as expensive or unreasonably priced as some people think. As an investor the biggest mistake I've made is probably not investing in companies like FB, AMZN and NFLX years ago because I was concerned about their valuations. Not only was I wrong about these stocks not justifying their high valuations, I could have never imagined them so significantly outperforming the broader market. In many cases these names could have been 2x more expensive than they were and still have been fantastic investments. I do agree with you that you shouldn't have a portfolio full of growth stocks though and that there is a difference between highly speculative, sometimes pre-revenue investments and growth stocks like SHOP or TDOC. For example a stock like SPCE doesn't even have a proven business model yet and really shouldn't be in the same category as companies like SHOP and NET which I and others use every day professionally. These aren't memes or highly speculative companies yet to prove they have a business but legit companies that are growing fast and offering real value to their users.
" If we take the example of SHOP, we find about 75% of gross profits are being spent on S&M + R&D.“ - Where can we find out this information about each company? I am a bag holder of SNOW and SHOP. I also hold UPST, HUBS, TTD and ZS. Could you please analyze these 4 stocks too? Thank you and I appreciate it!
Fair play for calling me out on this. I thought about using a different metric, or explaining why the TTM PE is a bit misleading, but most people here don't care or understand the difference anyway and I stand by the point I was trying to make. If you look at other metrics for SHOP like, PB, PS, forward PE, etc, you'll see the same trend... SHOP is trading decently below historical valuations almost anyway you look at it. You can't explain this with interest rate hikes alone in my opinion, so assuming it's not irrational fear, it's most likely related to post-pandemic slowdown concerns. It's possible SHOP has just been overvalued for years and AAPL was undervalued for years... And admittedly a good argument could be made there. But this divergence in valuation is interesting. It suggests that either historical valuations were mispriced, or that current valuations are. At a time when people are buying into AAPL for safety, they should at least be aware that's it's valuation may not be as safe as some people believe, especially if you think a recession is coming because AAPL's earnings rely more than most stocks on healthy consumer demand.
I see forward P/E of 16.6 for JNJ, which is what matters. Some of you guys, you look at P/E and I think you don't really understand it. I've heard multiple people in the last few days for example claim SHOP's P/E is 30. Technically, it is, but that's not real. Understanding why that's not a real number seems to be lacking.
Normally I like trading on technicals and sentiment during corrections, but it feels different this time. Most of the reliable sentiment and technical signals have been completely ignored by the market and it's starting to look more and more fundamentally driven. I don't think this is just a retail shake out, but genuine confusion and concerns about where earnings and the economy is heading in 2022. I think the only thing that's going to give the market confidence to go higher at this point is the FED reassuring the markets or strong tech earnings. If either are bad, or perhaps even neutral, I think we go lower. A stock like SHOP trading at 30 PE isn't normal and suggests a significant slow down to come for some of the tech pandemic winners including mega caps like AAPL & AMZN. If AAPL falls along aside a FED that remains hawkish on tackling inflation markets going 10-20% lower from here would not be out of the question. Then on top of that you have ongoing geopolitical risks and pandemic risks... The risk/reward of equities right now is more skewed towards risk than it's been in a while. So many things could go very wrong from here. Not saying that people shouldn't be buying into this volatility, but keep in mind there is a decent chance this is just the beginning of the selling.
For some reason, there was a price target set at $1750/share from an institution that many believe is holding a ton of shares and basically an insider. That price target was just slashed to an equally absurd $1250 and currently trading under $850. This reeks of institutions trying to reduce their cost basis because they cannot pump and dump for profit. NFLX looks more promising than SHOP.
I like First Solar, Alphabet, Facebook, Discover, and Intel for value with in my opinion undervalued potential to grow. EXAS, and a lot of the software names you've probably heard a million times for riskier growth buys. (TRMB, ADSK, UPST, TTD, PUBM, DOCN, SPOT, SHOP, U). A lot of these might be busts but if 1 or 2 blow up they could easily pay for the others. I just have all these stocks set to buy $1/day until disappointing news comes out about them or their price skyrockets.
I've been in the market for 15 years and have not seen anything like TSLA. I can show a screenshot that I shorted 800 Nvidia at 280 during its run-up last year or a screenshot of me shorting SHOP at 1600+ last year (also during its crazy runup) but I can't provide a screenshot of me shorting TSLA during any of its run-ups. They can't make enough cars to sell and their margin keeps going up. I keep on saying that TSLA is not the stock for you if you can only buy a handful of shares but if you buy in lots to 100 then it's a great stock because the demand for calls is so great and the premium is just too sweet. Within a few months, the shares I bought at 600 were basically free. I did have a 400 called away at 750 eventually last year. If you don't like the price that you bought it at, just wait and it'll be bargains.
I did a lot of repositioning today. Thinned winners. Mostly dumped losers last week. Added to great companies at the bottom today. DIS, TGT, HD, SHOP, also some RSP and QQQ. Ended today about .5% UP and sold more than I bought. This was a lot of short covering at the end. Also a lot of people with money on the sidelines DCA into great companies and indexes. Personally I think we still see more down days than up days coming in the next few months.
Have about the same numbers and missed the dips too. I'm pissed I missed the 16% swing on SHOP but at least we didn't sell. I think it opens green due to all the volume at close and the probably open bids. Then fades into JPow talk but I don't know shit. Or else I woulda bought the dip.
Sure there are. I have 800k on the sidelines. I sold a lot during November/December and haven't been able find anything at prices I'd be willing to pay. From tech names could jump to SNOW, MSFT and SHOP if prices are right but besides that I have small cap shopping list mile long across lot of industries.