VZ

SaltMaker23

I'm not a conspirationist but if I were to stage a coup pestering as the good guy. I'd pump stock market the same way. It doesn't cost a lot for a small economy like VZ to manipulate over couple of days triggering a reaction from the crowd, in comparison to the cost of the whole operation. It clearly smells market manipulation risk in here.

Dirty2020

Because it doesn't mean anything. 1. More oil supply means cheaper oil prices which is BAD for oil companies (which is why supply is artificially constrained to maintain a balance between profitability and affordability for the consumer). Rebuilding the infrastructure will cost billions and will take years (which is investors aren't generally stoked on). While Chevron has special permission to operate in VZ, no one knows how things will be divided up between Oil companies. The pump was Fomo, everyone jumped to premature conclusions.

Dirty2020

Bro, if he can send in a force that can take it, then its his to take. They should be better at defense. Honestly, back when VZ played nice they were prosperous. They'll be way better off with American oil companies running the show and paying them dividends.

WhoCaresWhatITink

Just because taking VZ was bullish does not mean taking Greenland will be. Whole different ballgame.

_hiddenscout

Not an oil expert, but i mean is there any benefit to companies investing into VZ right now with WTI being so low? I feel like that's the big question. I wonder what the break even rates are for it and if it makes sense for companies to even want to invest the Capex. Feels like any of the moves around something like CNQ would be just narrative based at this point, since it would probably take years to actually impact any business. I still find NFLX so tempting, might pull the trigger soon. I bought some THR, SANM, PATH calls and TOITF this morning.

tired_ani

I had started a 25% position in CNQ right before the events in Venezuela, I am left wondering if I should cut it at a 2% loss or to fill out the position. Long term it just can’t be good for Canadian oil if VZ infrastructure is feasible to rebuild but there are many ifs and also CNQ’s yield is nice. Other than that just adding to NFLX.

IslandExact429

Anyone have any real information on the shortage of silver for industrial demand? I think it’s complete fluff. Its like closing VZ oil refining in 2007 when OIL was spiking

Independent-Tree-985

Dont know why Bitcoin thinks its gonna get anything out of this VZ thing. Mango didnt mention inviting any bitcoin players to the oil party

10xwannabe

Investing is as simple as tying your shoe laces. I've read countless books over nearly 20 years, read peer review articles, and been on bogleheads website for 10+ years (best website for finance). Here is what investing comes down to: 1. Save as much as you can so you can invest as you can. 2. Asset allocation is king. 3. Active management is a losers game. 4. Fees, taxes, and inflation eat into long term returns. 5. Stay the course so you don't mess up your long term plan. This thread hits on no. 5. I can't tell you HOW MANY TIMES I see threads talking about how "this time is different". "Oh VZ attacked this time is different" is them most recent. Last couple years it is the political leanings showing through "Trump this or that". The older I get the more I believe Dr. Bernstein (author) saying most folks SHOULD have FA to prevent themselves from messing everything up.

Independent-Tree-985

So people are saying it could take up to a year to actually start to see returns on any investments made in the VZ oil patches.

pmotiveforce

They are even offering to foot the bill on US taxpayer dime for the oil companies in VZ, lol. Pure, on your face corruption and we just sit around and laugh "gotta get mine too lololol".

IslandExact429

China is a bust if the weapons defense system in VZ was actually an iron wall America is a bust for trying to get dirty crude And this metals rally. What the actual fuck is brewing.

crisco000

So like every other night in VZ? Cra cra

Automatic-Unit-8307

China gets very little oil from VZ. How much rare earth minerals do we get from China?

CrabFederal

The main difference is that you need less of VZ heavy to cut west Texas sweet.  That makes matters worse.  

Enjoying_A_Meal

China gets 4.5% of the oil from VZ. They can easily recoup it by raising prices on rare earth, seeing how the US gets 77% of our rare earth from China.

CrabFederal

Simply  lifting sanctions on Venezuela oil will put pressure on WCS. Price is set at the margin. Canadian producer are selling nearly completely unhedged.  US producers are hedged with large trading and refining businesses .  The value of these companies VZ assets that they lost will now be recognized, this will have a positive impact on their balance sheet. 

selesnyaTroll

Yeah, perhaps. I honestly don't follow $HAL or $SLB anywhere near enough to say on those (see it's ok to admit when you don't understand something enough to make a play on it). I was more laughing at everyone on twitter and the like saying oil futures would gap down hard and Canadian oil companies were doomed. Or that CVX, XOM, BP etc would immediately gain bigly from this. Like 1, the VZ situation is far from settled. 2nd, it would take a shit ton of money and years to start pulling up VZ oil in a meaningful way. 3rd, these companies haven't earmarked any of their money for said venture yet. So when I saw Canadian names like CVE and SU get shit on in early market, I bought and sold in the afternoon for a quick easy day trade lmao. Long term remains murky as VZ is unresolved, Russia/Ukraine is unresolved, and there continues to be musings of going after Iran again.

Bubbacarl

He is interested in more than oil. VZ is super rich in resources. Gas is very cheap and has been without VZ. It will continue for sometime. He wants inflation low and cheap gas is a major driver of low inflation. Just my opinion, do as you want I am not investing in oil anytime soon.

Bubbacarl

Problem with oil is Trump. He wants cheap gas and oil and we are getting it. Now with VZ? I sold my oil stocks they will be flat for years Id gather

OdessyOfIllios

Albertan Sour Crude vs VZ sour crude.

AccountDramatic6971

It doesn't make sense. It'll take 5 years and hundreds of billions to rebuild VZ's oil industry. Look at the Canadian oilsands it took us 30 years and ungodly sums to build. If this money is dumped into vz. The companies will expect a return on capital and as it stands, i don't think that's possible

_TheGoogz

Yeah, straight to personal jabs lmao. No, you're putting words in my mouth. There are many reasons why, in my opinion, what happened in VZ is a good thing. Also, again, the previous administration increased the bounty on Maduro to $25m. He is a murderous dictator... If you want to defend him have at it. Nothing is triggering lol. I'm simply stating facts and you're the one that goes off on personal rants/jabs like they mean anything. Project and cope hard big fella.

_TheGoogz

You know the US has had contracts with VZ for oil going back to 1920, right? And Maduro was violating those, right? Can't take what is already yours.

pigeon_shit

I’m also long shares and leaps but wondering if LNG will even matter anymore with VZ ramping up coming online.

tired_ani

Big oof for CNQ in which I had stated a position 2 days before the VZ event.

plvx

These are joint ventures between the oil co and the host country. Generally the contracts are structured so that the host country gets a royalty and employs a portion of their people. I am guessing if VZ knew how to run it all by themselves they wouldn’t have collapsed from 2-3M bpd to ~700k bpd.

AllCapNoBrake

https://preview.redd.it/evo6jusrwibg1.jpeg?width=120&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ae31b31bcfc49bb127cb52c177960b4e98167f39 If bibi can turned them to remote bombs, maybe a LOT of interaction w/ remaining VZ Administration.

pmotiveforce

Yeah, true. Oil companies had good luck in VZ so far. I'm sure they are itching to go in so they can spend billions on shitty heavy sour crude equipment and infrastructure and be booted out in 3 years, during a time when we have an oil surplus.

fog_rolls_in

VZ is going to moon on name association

pmotiveforce

That high tech: a pay phone the VZ vice president called in and said "yeah, he's at these coordinates pick him up tomorrow night, yeah he knows the plan it's all good bro"

pmotiveforce

Oil gonna moon, but not just because of VZ. Iran shit about to become volatile.

SpareMaize9237

What about mining those 8900 juicy tons of unmined deposits VZ has? he's asking 2026, If we start mining too this year prices might fluctuate a bit to the downside in the future, and as long mining production rices globally with the help of vz we would have lower prices lets say in 2 to 3 years time due to supply increase or at least thats the theory

Skid-Vicious

VZ is 5 to 7 years away after stability has been achieved to “oPeN tHe fIeLdS”. Everybody needs to calm their tits.

Skid-Vicious

This won’t go anywhere. Way too much incompetence at the top and I’d be surprised if any operators go very deep into VZ. If no operators then no need for service companies like SLb and HAL.

_hiddenscout

Don’t disagree but feels like VZ is in TVs position due to sanctions. They can only trade with a handful of countries and a few of those countries still want/need oil. 

gravescd

Agreed. Taking VZ oil off the market will line Trump's pockets and force China to replace that supply with US/OPEC oil and prices will go up. China will probably push to electrify even faster, so it's probably no coincidence that Elon Musk just threw his lot back in with the GOP for mid terms.

redditmodsRrussians

keep pumping its cash into actually profitable investments and avoid VZ like every other US company?

redditmodsRrussians

because literally nothing has changed? VZ only pops about 800k barrels on the mkt a day and so far nothing has changed that. Add in the fact no US oil company is gonna want to attempt to enter VZ for a 10 year bid just to rebuild the infrastructure at over $100 billion before they even begin to extract. The whole event could have been an email and will probably just end up being a nothingburger

AllCapNoBrake

I can save 1 or 2 THlllllllllC Latina's being displaced from VZ. https://preview.redd.it/8ng6j9k99dbg1.jpeg?width=109&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cc9373e0bc17a95af552d15508546102984fafac

French_Hawaii

Glad y’all found what @ahlornjtvn139 was missing? Bananas lower and VZ pros in NYC higher. 👍

OracleofFl

Not so simple. At $58 a barrel do they drill and rehab wells now or wait? As a sovereign oil company PDVSA had an immediate reason to pump and sell oil to fill the nation's coffers but that doesn't mean that oil companies do. Is there relative "unmet demand" for sour heavy crude right now? If not, VZ crude is going to take a higher refining cost than other crude types. What is that impact? What is the impact of deglobalization on the demand for bunker fuel if trade activity is lower? What is the impact of the Russia situation? What if that situation fixes itself and Russia is pumping and shipping again at full capacity? Will the lack of "shadow fleet" and shipping oil around Africa impact the demand for bunker fuel?

OracleofFl

Here is my issue....with oil at $58 a barrel, I can see major oil companies tying up leases but I don't see major drilling or major well rehabilitation (Many VZ wells have not been well maintained which is why production has dropped off for them) in the near term. Add to that there is a risk that the Russia situation fixes itself and Russia starts pumping at prewar levels which creates another supply impact keeping oil prices low. That being said, as a trader, CVX should pop tomorrow but I don't think it is a beneficiary in the longer term that is meaningful.

BigLusBaby

I'm buying VZ too.

ChiefZeeba34

Im investing in Verizon, ticker VZ....

mountain_valley_city

Venezwaylan prostitutes in lower Manhattan are now more expensive as more likely to head back to VZ.

HermanDaddy07

The market is glutted with oil. Prices are down, with sanctions on VZ, Russia and Iran. Word is drilling in the Permian basis has slacked off because of the glut. With VZ oil becoming unsanctioned, expect prices to fall further.

sweeetscience

1. Increased oil supply absent offsetting demand = decreased prices. Oil producers suffer because the 10 year is 4.2%. We would need _increased demand_ and _decreased global supply_ to adjust the price to the point that it makes this profitable over the next three years. Venezuela only adds about a million barrels per day to global supply. Opening the proverbial spigot is suicide for domestic producers. 2. China is the global leader in rare earth mineral refining. Replacing that capacity takes years and tens of billions of dollars in capex, so we’d still have to send minerals to China for refinement. There’s this grand plan to try and isolate the Chinese economy, but regardless of how anyone feels about it they’re integral to the supply chain of the most important supply chains on earth. 3. US involvement in any protracted conflict of any type in Venezuela will necessarily produce substantially larger budget deficits, which will likely increase long term interest rates, which will make VZ investment by US producers in most commodities extraordinarily expensive. I genuinely believe this is one of the most shortsighted and historically blind regime change operations we’ve made in recent memory, but as Powell said in the lead up to Iraq: “you break it, you own it.”

SerpentRoyalty

Just FYI, MO makes cigarettes, in case you don't want to support that. VZ's share price is lower than it was in 1999. Better off just putting that money in a HYSA. CVX is the king of growth dividend stocks. Clear winner.

SoCallMeDeaconBlues1

Here's the thing. Aside from the mineral play, the oil play has some caveats. VZ's oil reserves are sour- it isn't that sweet sweet Texas (or OPEC) oil that comes out of the ground. There aren't many players who even have capability to deal with it. Google it for yourself- sweet vs. sour oil, VZ oil, etc etc Just something to keep in mind.

SerpentRoyalty

VZ stock was more valuable in 1999 than now

redditmodsRrussians

It would take years if not a decade to get that stabilized and set up unless you are going for Sudan style conflict gold/silver/diamonds. Even that is extremely unstable. No, the only people making money up front is gonna be Erik Prince and his mercs who will contracted to act as the military backbone for whatever puppet state is set up. From there, we get another School Of The Americas and things get real dark. The Lithium/Gold/Silver triangle down south of VZ is juicy but will probably not see any real returns until the first part takes place.

SlackCanadaThrowaway

Equipment doesn’t last 20 years without maintenance and storage. They’ll be lucky to use the majority of it for scrap. You’ll also need to consider if a US democratic president gets in, do they play nice with new VZ rulers and legislate non-PDVSA wells and land for US companies while requiring fair market prices and free trade for PDVSA wells (essentially killing Chevron’s market edge)?

vegetto712

Some of my favs: MO, AGNC, F, VZ, VALE, KVUE Shout-out to the obvious ones like WMT and TGT

Crunch101010

It’s a very hated company on reddit, but there are plenty of people who don’t care about their provider and just keep paying the bill. I bought some not too long ago at $38 in a tax sheltered account. Forward FCF yield is around 12%+, forward PE around 8.5x, dividend over 7% and a safe payout ratio. At this price, I don’t need much earnings growth to happen (although the market thinks they will keep growing eps at about 3%-4%). As for upside, I expect their next move should be to replace the indian customer support army with AI. That would dramatically cut costs, provide a lot more data, and also improve the customer experience. I have direct experience seeing the new AI customer support agents at another company, and they are incredible- most people don’t even realize it’s AI. And they are tied into the system to make most actions without human involvement. In general, I see it as a safe value stock in the sense that if the overall market drops 20%+ this year, VZ won’t. It’s already beaten down. And in a recession, people will do just about anything before they cut off their phones and internet (VZ sales only dropped 1% in 2008). By having a few defensive stocks like this (waste management is another example, BTI is another), I’m comfortable leaning harder into more risk in other investments.

GoZukkYourself

VZ is for 🌈 dividend investors.

miata_only

If we don't own VZ then Russia and China will own it by proxy. It's just smart business acumen, you guys.

Weldobud

It’s well managed and they can cover it. If you search you’ll find a lot of VZ analysis. They are also undergoing changes. For such a large company that will take time. Until then the dividend will tick over nicely.

IslandExact429

In 5 years, VZ will be the next Texas

IslandExact429

Buy VZ stocks on Monday

IslandExact429

Now that VZ is gone, what will we go after next?

pcurve

I've held VZ for years and have bought more in the low 40s and below. The yield is attractive, but the share price hasn't gone anywhere compared to other stocks in my portfolio.

Iknowyougotsole

VZ was like that one run down house in the neighborhood not living up to HOA standards and occupied by some shut in hoarding all the big booty Latinas. Looks like the neighborhood value increased by freeing the 🍑

ObiWanCanownme

It's bullish. After some brief disruption, VZ oil will come online, pushing global prices down toward $50. This will screw Russia over and be great for the U.S. and China, leading to increased growth in both economies. This is not guaranteed, but it is the most likely outcome currently.

0o0o0o0o0o0z

> Slight bump in the road and resume business as usual after a few days Bullish, American Exxon and Chevron + plus others, will be going back into VZ. I am not sure that's great for the price of oil though...

mrtrentsd

Consider the following: **MO** Altria Group **7.4%** 60 Years (Dividend growth streak in years) **VZ** Verizon Communications **6.6%** 20 Years **O** Realty Income **5.5%** 30+ Years **KMB** Kimberly-Clark **4.9%** 53 Years **CVX** Chevron **4.4%** 38 Years

Hot-Celebration5855

Markets won’t change much. VZ accounts for less than 1% of global oil production. Medium term Valero, SLB, Chevron and COP will benefit

MrsPetrieOnBass

Of those three, only VZ is a significant oil player. I think you grossly overestimate US control of the global market. China has lots of money to pay for whatever the market would bear.

redditmodsRrussians

I think down south but most of its mineral resources are in the Lithium Triangle area and underdeveloped. Wonder if LAC is gonna suddenly moon as it’s basically free real estate if VZ folds

redditmodsRrussians

Well, those metals export bans are about to be a lot less useful when VZ just opens its legs and lets all the US mining companies into its Minussy to get that sweet sweet mineral wealth

Onnimation

It's been confirmed to be vipers attacking which means it's from USMC. I would understand a SOF operation for HVTs, but if the USMC gets involved then that points to a much larger scale operation. The masses of chinooks pointed to that and the corps is involved I doubt this will be 24 hour hit and run on the VZ, whole operatkon reminds me of that opening day night vision bombing footages of Iraq.

redditmodsRrussians

Yea, pretty sure we just completely mauled their entire CnC and if the 160th along with other JSOC are storming the palace, Maduro is either goo or in custody. Even if he does manage to escape somehow, alternate targets would have included commanders down to the battalion levels and radar/comms networks. Im not sure what command structure would be left and I dont know enough about VZ troops training to know if they can operate on a company/platoon level independently.

redditmodsRrussians

Isnt it the 160th in the mix right now? A lot of VZ defenders about to get liquidated like our ports on Monday

redditmodsRrussians

"I checked your record corporal.....VZ, that was some mean bush"

sirzoop

VZ is more risky and overvalued than tech stocks

bam2350

I'm a bag holder on VZ. The bulk of my holdings were purchased in 2015-2020. In round terms I'm 20+% down. At some point, I assume I'll sell at a loss as past of tax loss harvesting. In the mean time, I rationalize that the dividends keep it from being as bad as it looks. For me, this is one of the companies that might not be a great investment even though it is one of the best in it's sector at delivering the product -- for many people I've known, Verizon is the best cellular network/provider.

idonotrightwell

What happens if VZ ends its dividend? Could that ever happen?

BeneficialQuality899

VZ is a good stock and has done well for me. The dividend is very nice. They have the most coverage and customers out of any telecommunications company. They have also partnered with ASTS for satellite

LetsGoHokies00

worst customer service i’ve ever experienced, ever. i will not use VZ or buy the stock. i’ll never touch the company again.

toedwy0716

It’s stupid to own it when you can just buy something like VGT and get untaxed growth. VZ will not really appreciate in stock value so you’re left with just the dividend. It’s taxable so you’ll end up needing to pay additional taxes on your return. I held it for about 8 years. In that time it barely increased in share price. I ended up selling it for a small loss. If I could do it again I wouldn’t have bought it and have just bought VTI. In addition their business is likely under threat from satellite constellation companies like StarLink and it’s a capex heavy industry with significant hardware and spectrum costs.

AlGAdams

VZ is a good 'floor' asset if you're in the derisking phase of the later part of your investment journey.  

Safe-Breadfruit-1913

I agree VZ is a good value stock. I treat it like a somewhat riskier bet than bonds. I believe the stock will probably not beat the market but will be a safe investment with a consistent payout.

Creative-Grocery2581

VZ

SamQuentin

VZ - low PE. Decent yield and everyone needs fiber and/or mobile. Peg hovering around 2 isn't great but better than many of these slow growers

Weldobud

I’ve been watching GIS for a long time. It’s not gone anywhere except down and then stays in the $45-50 range. Dividend is good, although it’s very unclear if there will be any stock market rally anytime soon. If you are happy to wait VZ is an option too. Or a REIT like VICI, O, ARE give dividends around that range. Worth a look.

IDrinkSulfuricAcid

Oh boy, there's much better dividend stocks! You could go with Verizon (VZ) which has a 6.82% dividend. Altria (MO) has a 7.36% dividend. 6.86% on Pfizer (PFE). Western Union (WU) offers a 10% dividend. Obviously the drawback is that a lot of these stocks don't grow or some are actively going down. Chevron has a relatively lower dividend compared to these, but it's stable. From these, I would choose VZ.

Lazy-Gene-7284

I agree on that part, just not sure you need “ bonds” or dividend bearing equivalents at your age. I retired a year ago and 20-25% on my holdings are now in dividend payers like VZ , PFE and others, with 10-15% in money markets and bonds. Yields are a lot better and they have some potential upside as rates turn lower

cbusoh66

Not a regular churn, Apple is also available on all services. T-Mobile is aggressively advertising their T-Satellite and peeling customers away. T and VZ can't be too happy but their patience will run out soon.

cbusoh66

It doesn't matter if T-Mobile continues to win customers away from T and VZ, people are not demanding broadband now, this is all that matters to MNOs--Winning and Keeping their subscribers. T and VZ and others can't possibly be happy at the many delays, heck, they still can't get their ASIC to work and could only muster to launch 1 satellite in 2025.

cbusoh66

People who use the service are happy. T-Mobile is winning new customers from T and VZ. T and VZ are not looking at who's going to offer the "superior" service if they're losing subscribers, the pressures will continue to mount to move away from ASTS if they can't get their service up and running and continue to struggle with delays and design issues. VZ is working with Skylo as a backup, but I see them the first to sign with Starlink next.

one-won-juan

dunno about NBIS but ASTS literally has commitments for +1B in MNO prepayments and hundreds of mil in rev share planned on service live in 2026. This is just getting started as they have only signed DCAs with 4 out of 50 MNO partners they have. They also are in the process of getting VZ and ATT spectrum authorization for their sats. These things take time, if people wait until “fundamentals” are right in front of them then that’s fine but it will be at a way higher premium

Nofanta

Seems like it’s broken. We could go to war with VZ at any time and then theres Ukraine. Rigged like a lot of other metrics.

one-won-juan

don’t focus too hard on revenue until commercial service has been live. Market caps for MNOs are not apples to apples comparable because the margins and expenditures are vastly different. ASTS is aiming for +90% margins. Starlink has 9000 satellites but last I checked they had about 600 satellites for d2c market, the rest are fixed broadband. They have public signed commercial agreements with 4 major MNOs now (STC, VZ, ATT, and Vodafone) but this is just the beginning, they have MOUs with 40+ other MNOs internationally. Doesn’t include government contracts either. Anyways, to answer your question no if it does reach “perfection”, 31B is extremely low valuation.

Shit-throwing-monkey

I see all these posts on ASTS and have a couple of questions: Could they be priced to perfection? ASTS has a market cap of $31.5B and did $14.7M in rev last Q. AT&T has market cap of $173.4B and did $30.7B in rev last quarter. VZ is similar. How can they compete with SpaceX's Starlink? SpaceX has reusable rockets and 9000+ satellites already in orbit. Not short. Not an Elon fanboy. Just asking.

rap1800

https://youtu.be/JJ3PA6N0QXQ?si=VZ4Lp4b_gWgmROhA

Professional_Bonus44

I'm about to sell VZ

vrtra_theory

One question on this - how do you ever scale it? Let's say I'm confident in VZ and manage to sell a cash secured put for $15, I'm sitting on $4k until the DTE. If I want to sell 10 of those, I need to sit on $40k which is doing nothing now except sitting in cash earning 3%. Or... I can trade on margin of course until I screw up and have to liquidate stocks. I can happily trade on razor thin deltas on CSPs and CCs, to make eg $40-50 every few weeks... but I don't understand how you ever grow that without taking on more risk.

Meanboy_og

Made like 500 scalping VZ and HRL all day. What a chop fest heh . But I’ll take it .

chickennoobiesoup

Gosh IDK maybe VZ, EIX, PEP, KHC? Not financial advice.

Lazy-Gene-7284

There are some things that’ll go down much less or even appreciate, stocks like VZ and PFE with higher yields and predictable cash flows can be safe(r). At your age just keep firing at the pin, but if it makes you feel better promise yourself you’ll go all in when it drops 20, 25, 49%. Chances are you’ll be too scared right then and miss it.