XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR® Fund
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Mentions
Thank you for taking the time for a detailed explanation! Are you typically buying LEAPS about 1 year out? In the SLV and XLB examples where you are seeing huge returns quickly, do you lock those in either by rolling up or selling (looking for a re-entry after a pullback)? Like you, I'm looking at the market daily so I'm very aware of where everything is trading and I don't like the idea of a stop loss which could lock in a large loss due to a temporary downswing. I modeled a couple NVDA LEAPS in optionstrat and see that a stock drop of 15% equals about a 40-50% drop in the call value (picking a time in the middle of the contract). The dollar value decline in the call is almost identical to the dollar value decline in an equivalent 100 shares (you were spot on about that). However, even if dollar decline is the same, percentage decline of the call is much greater. A 100% LEAPS portfolio would decline 50% while a stock portfolio declines 15%. If we had another 2008 recession event, would you try to sell out of your positions early enough that you wouldn't lose more than half your portolio? And while the loss would be substantial, you are less concerned than if you had a 50% loss on a stock portfolio because you will use LEAPS on the market recovery to recover your portfolio faster? Basically, you know you can lose money quickly but also gain money quickly? A stock portfolio may take 6-7 years to double while a LEAPS may only need 2-3 years? Do you keep any dry powder available to throw into LEAPS in the event of a downturn? For example after Liberation Day throwing a chunk of $$ into SPY LEAPS would have yielded a nice return. LEAPS become even more powerful when bought at a market low.
Darth Cheney-esque, boomer megacorps like CG, HON, HAL, pretty much anything in the XLB sector.
If this bill passes the House, XLB is going to pump up even more than it has already.
rising sector in XLB, steel dybanics, nucor, newmont corp, freeport all risen by 5%
I'm similar to you, have \~10% of my portfolio in defense (ITA), I like to limit my exposure with ETF's by having them in individual sectors rather than broad market...I'm still diversified, but I know Reddit says not being heavy in VOO is terrible... Made adjustments this AM to XLB, RSP, and XLI to have \~50% of my portfolio allocation, and bought AMD and NVDA at open as a bet for this UAE deal going on today. I don't mind owning there outright at the moment and its only \~5% of my portfolio
I'd actually go from late November tbh. They may still be up on the year, sure, but I have been unhappy about how RSP or XLI/XLB/XLE, etc have traded since then. Until proven otherwise, it's likely that "highs are in" there for this cycle.
I would recommend some targeted ETFs. VGT and SMH both gained about 30% last year. Tech stocks will continue to grow at a greater rate than the total market. XLB is supposed to have a good year and O may be a smart buy too.
I'm retired and currently have a 40/60 (stocks/fixed income) portfolio. The fixed income side is giving me just under a 5% YTM from a bond ladder that goes out about 11 years. I replenish the rungs with bonds (including treasuries) that are about 11 years out. So at this point getting close to 5% return on the new rungs isn't much of a problem with a investment grade (including BBB/Baa). I also have some HYG. The long term total return on HYG is about 4.7%, that assumes reinvestment of dividends. That leaves the stocks to pull the overall return above 5%. So far it's been doing nicely. I primarily have SPY, QQQ, FTEC DIA, ITOT, XLC, XLB, and like everyone else, some NVDA. The interest payments are sufficient for me, at least for now, so I'm counting on those to get me through and corrections or crashes in stocks. I rebalance every 3-6 months. This lets me take some earnings off the table an put them in fixed income. That's the minimal risk portfolio that I came up with to get a 5+ % return.
Healthcare (XLV) is the worst-performing sector over the past 6 months. But it's the best performing (7.9%) sector so far in 2025.  XLF, XLB next best. Sector rotation. 
Gold is a commodity. Look at XLB index etf for an idea of materials companies :-)
If you are looking for really good FREE information on Iron Condors or any other option trading methods and information, including backtesting, take a look at TastyLive.com. I found them years ago and have learned so much from their content, and live programing Monday - Friday. I eventually moved my ROTH and regular accounts to their brokerage, but their information on TastyLive is free! No strings attached. You don't have to have an account there. If you do have an account they have a back testing feature that is amazing. If you check out this video on [TastyLive.com](http://TastyLive.com) you it will give you the basic metrics that need to be in place for an Iron Condor to have it's best chance of being profitable consistently. A scanner will make it easier to find these stocks, but you can find them on your own if you don't want to use a scanner. Some tickers to consider are XLB, TSLA, MSFT, AAPL, NVDA, NFLX, COIN...the list goes on and on, but you want to be sure you are not writing an IC over any earnings or known news events that might cause a big move. I mean you can write during earnings or news, but your chances of reaching full loss are higher. Anyway, I can not recommend Tasty enough if option trading is something you are wanting to learn. For Iron Condors, consider watching this video to get you started: [https://www.tastylive.com/shows/options-jive/episodes/strategies-simplified-iron-condors-08-30-2022](https://www.tastylive.com/shows/options-jive/episodes/strategies-simplified-iron-condors-08-30-2022)
Sectors to get long going forward as tech, and market cap weighted s&p falter XLP XLV XLY XLB XLRE
Bro XLB is literally [one of the worst performing sectors this year](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/top-p-500-performers-date-172406945.html). Free money glitch. Materials getting absolutely crushed rn while tech moons. Those diamond hands paid off. But lock in those gains before theta gang comes for your tendies. First one's always free - speaking from experience lmao. Also XLB expense ratio 0.09% = more money in your pocket vs other materials ETFs. Not financial advice but numbers don't lie 🚀
Good entry on XLB around here
For anyone interested in playing the election uncertainty with options that won't cost you an arm and a leg - ITA, KCE, XLE, XLB, and XLF still have reasonable premiums at the strike price.
You're a bit late to the game but I'm very deep in XLB (Canadian long-term bonds).
Yeah I've heard that before and it makes sense. In that case OP could still benefit from XGB's YTM of 3.8% over ~8 years and XLB's YTM of 4.27% over ~23 years right? Also kinda asking this for myself, as I'm whole hog in on XLB.
[Yes they're colloquially known as T-Bills.](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/treasurybill.asp) Bills generally mature in <12 months, notes in ~10 years, and bonds in 20+ years. Anyways this is besides the point. Bonds have been doing poorly but are set to do well in the future ([vanguard agrees!](https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/series/active-fixed-income-perspectives#trying-to-find-a-landing)), so I think OP's advisor is right here, so long as he's not going 100% TLT/XLB and adding more volatility than is necessary.
I locked in a GIC @ 5% a week before the Canadian interest rate cuts. Got in XLB (Canadian version of TLT) right before this little spike too. Got in and out of it last week for a 1.5% gain too. In for the long-haul now.
I feel like we are approaching the end of the bull market and things could turn sour from here. At least I did, until yields faded today and oil and DXY went down, so now I am less confident. If things do turn bearish, does it make sense to go long utilities and consumer staples? Those two popped off today while the market was down, and these are countercyclical industries. Yet I still saw a lot of correlation between SPY and XLU/XLP/XLV/XLB moves: when there is panic, everything sells off. Thoughts? Are we entering the bear market? Do the listed funds make sense to rotate into?
Really after looking at all the sector-focused ETFs most everything was either down between last October-November at some point OR in the last part of 2022. I'm just looking at surface lwvel stuff tough. XLY, XLK, XLRE, XLB etc....
VOO, VUG, AVUV, XLB - throw a little JEPI and JEPQ for dividends and don’t touch it
Even the XLB chart looks like a possible breakout
You could purchase defensive etfs that are not overvalued such as XLB, XLP, XLY.
So, here's the thing. Politically, I am the opposite of Donald Trump in that I believe in freedom and he doesn't. I'm going to be enthusiastically voting for President Biden in the fall. Putting that aside, I'm looking at this election objectively. Each candidate has things that favor them and those that don't. President Biden has the advantages of incumbency, a robust economic recovery, several important legislative accomplishments, and political/demographic trends in swing states that favor his party (i.e. people moving from California to Arizona, suburbs in places like Pennsylvania & Michigan being more favorable to Democrats, etc.) On the flip side, voters are dissatisfied with the country's direction, disapprove of the President's job performance, and belive he is too old. Donald Trump has a loyal base of support, and benefits from continuous media coverage. On the flip side, he has countless legal problems, his presidency wasn't successful, his mental state has clearly deteriorated, and people just don't like the guy. Biden's approval ratings staying around 40-43% and polling points to a Trump win. On the other hand, the strong economy and the most accurate election forecaster of the past 40 years stating Biden is ahead as of now points to a Biden win. Personally, I do believe President Biden is a SLIGHT favorite to win the election. I think most of the polls are flawed & biased in favor of Trump (not purposely, just the sample pollsters use), and voters dislike both candidates but view Trump as more personally objectionable. So for me, when I look at the market, I think a bit of uncertainty should be priced in. This isn't 1984, 1996, or 2008 when the outcome was obvious this far in advance. It's more like 2004 or 2012; the incumbent is a slight favorite but not guaranteed. To answer OP's question, Trump's first term benefited tech because of artificially low-interest rates and massive deficit spending. Meanwhile, tariffs, trade policy in general, and other factors hurt sectors more tied to production, manufacturing, and global trade. Consider this article from December 2019: [https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp500-type-of-company-trump-threatened-is-thriving-instead/](https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp500-type-of-company-trump-threatened-is-thriving-instead/) ​ *"The S&P 500's 31 California-based tech companies are up 108% on average since Trump was inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2017."* ​ *" Meanwhile, Trump's more* [***favored sectors and industries***](https://www.investors.com/category/etfs-and-funds/sectors/) *haven't performed nearly as well.* *The Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (*[***XLB***](https://research.investors.com/quote.aspx?symbol=XLB)*) is up just 19.2% from inauguration day and the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (*[***XLI***](https://research.investors.com/quote.aspx?symbol=XLI)*) is up 28.4%.* *Energy stocks, too, have done notably poorly. Four of the 10 worst performing S&P 500 stocks since Trump's inauguration are in the energy sector."* ​ I would expect Trump to double-down on trade protectionism, tariffs, and mandates if he wins again. In my mind, this is terrible for the U.S. economy and would likely hurt the same industries it did during his first term. As indicated above, this would be bearish for industrials and materials. However, I'm not sure tech would benefit from a second Trump term. I think he would aggressively seek to increase regulation in that area. His inflationary policies would likely lead to a squeezed consumer. The Fed would likely cut rates, but if firms aren't able to import inputs and export products to overseas customers, how are they supposed to lower prices? That's extremely bearish for Consumer Discretionary. If the Fed brings rates low and does QE again, I guess that's bullish for existing residential real estate. New construction would be in trouble because of the trade issue/tariffs/supply chain disruptions resulting from protectionism. I'd be bearish on equities overall if Trump wins again, although I guess if the real leader of the free world Jerome Powell printed more I could be wrong. Utilities could do well under Trump, it's safety.
You could get even more granular and go for sector ETFs like XLB, XLE, XLP, XLU, XLI, XLV. Basically anything with pricing power and good fundamentals.
You're kinda underestimating how good the Nasdaq is at hiding stuff here when it's on as it is uhhh...hiding a lot. From January 6th in some of the major large cap sector ETFs: XLI: about flat XLF: -6.6% XLE: -2.1% XLB (materials): -3% S&P: up 10.6% because the NDX is still up nearly 36% since then. Probably less than half of the S&P is up since January 6th with the correction that's occurred, it hasn't mattered since the Nasdaq has been on fire. Any rally is going to have to be tech stock led until we flip the calendar...it's been the story of this year and frankly if 4200 holds through the rest of the year for the S&P, it's going to be because QQQ refused to die more than anything else because value names have kinda been ravaged.
i dont agree the resistance is at 430 i think its 420ish and i believe you could go all the way to like 390 and still not break trend those numbers may be a little off bc i dont do spy i look at the S&P so i mean like 4200-4250 and like 3850-3900 on the S&P and i know SPY doesnt perfectly track the S&P so yeah i dont think youve hit the bottom resistance i'll also add, and im a regard so take it with a grain of salt, but when you look at the s&p logrhythmically you can see its traded in a fairly tight channel for basically 2008 and there the bottom is like 4k but TA will never give you a why. TA isnt going to tell you why its going down or if it will stop going down, it just gives you benchmarks or areas where if it does keep going down you can do some decision making, like ok it broke the 4200 really hard time to maybe get out of some positions etc, or ok it looks like it hit resistance at 4200 maybe i should buy its not telling you why. you would have to look out to more macro shit and fundamentals and all that stuff to get the why of it one of the scary things going on right now is go look at the FAANG stocks, they basically all have broken trend and are chopping sideways do it with sectors then, XLB XLF XLE XTN XLC XLY and youll see many of them doing the exact same thing personally seeing that i wonder if the bull run is over, but until we hit that 4200 marker at minimum im not willing to quit. also im fucking holding regardless bc im not a moron and not in options. if you go look like 1995-2008 the bottom of the crash you were still up 50% over 13 years. 1985 to 1995 up another 50% over 10 years. options are a suckers game. they arent meant to be a way to fucking gamble my dude, they are a hedge for real positions <3
I buy the spiders: XLE, XLV, XLB and anything else offered that makes sense. I don't know about how to buy a weighted ETF without the top companies - unless you buy a mid cap, small cap or the Russell 2000.
Yeah straight up trending green on XLE and XLB today
XLB, XLY, XLE all way up compared to others today. Should have a watchlist with all sectors BTW. Now you can go find all the stocks in those sectors that have been unjustly punished and go long.
Misspelling "holding" or "holdings" on XLB and it thinks I want XLK because it accurately knows that I'm a smooth brain who wouldn't be trading material names.
XLE, XLU, XLV, XLB etc.
8 SPY 2 XLB 2 XLE 2 XLU 8 way out of the money QQQ calls sold short weeklys and/or monthly’s
Big institutional funds are rotating into tech when its +4 ATR, quite questionable. This is a very good zone to take profit on tech calls, the risk/reward entering long calls on tech at this point is terrible. Took profit on MSFT and GOOGL calls. The move already happened, if you missed it you missed it, there's always another opportunity. Large distribution going on in XLE, XLB, XLF, XLV, and XOM. Entered full size into BA puts with anticipation of a flush.
XLB was one I had some thoughts on too, so could obviously drop that one. XLE is one we plan on having a tight stop loss on. That one is more related to China reopening and inflation creeping back up second half of the year. Basically historically as the dollar decreases in value, XLE has performed well. That’s one I’m ok with riding it while it’s working and then taking the W and moving on.
XLE, XLB are the worst to be into heading to recession. Commodities will be hammered hard. I’d allocate a high portion to Altria stock and buy a long-term put option to hedge and collect the dividends
Did you mean this sentence? > If the spread is more than 20% of the bid, steer clear. 10% or less is great. How about some examples? I'll read them right off of a real option chain so you can also look for yourself. XLB Feb monthly expiration (2/17) vs. XLB Feb weekly expiration (2/10). I picked XLB because it tends to have bad liquidity, has $.01 increment bids, and $1 interval strikes, making it easier to see differences (compared to a typical stock that might have$.05 increment bids and $5 increment strikes). If you look at the ATM strike call of the XLB Feb monthly, which is the 81c at the moment, you see a bid/ask of: 2.10/2.25 The spread width is the ask minus the bid, so: spread = 2.25 - 2.10 = 0.15 10% of the bid = 2.25 x 10% = 0.23 (rounded up) Here, you can see that the spread is less than 10% of the bid (.15 < .23), so the spread is *narrow*, which implies good liquidity. But now lets look at some OTM strikes. The 86c strike has a bid/ask of: .35/.50 spread = .50 - .35 = .15 10% of the bid = .50 x 10% = .05 Here, the spread width is **greater than** 10% of the bid (.15 > .05), so this strike has worse liquidity than the ATM call. In fact, the spread is worse than 20% of the bid, so this would be considered a wide spread and probably not worth trading. Now lets look at the same strikes of the 2/10 weekly. ATM call 81c = 1.70/1.90 spread = 1.90 - 1.70 = 0.20 10% of the bid = 1.70 x 10% = .17 Even though this is an ATM call, the spread is more than 10% of the bid! It's a wider spread than the same ATM strike of the monthly. This demonstrates that monthly expirations often have better liquidity than weeklies. I'll leave the 86c 2/10 bid/ask spread evaluation as an exercise for the reader.
Sounds like a WSBSilver article .. maybe they’re right maybe they’re wrong.. I’ve been accumulating for both the recessionary and commodities trade for 23 and maxing out I-bonds.. I like CAG, PEP, MCD, SCHD, SCHY, MO, XLP, WM, Japanese ETFs, NEM, some XLB, UNP just because it’s a duopoly and near shoring theories… Uranium I kind of like
You are recession-minded, and while I have some XLV/XLU/XLF/XLI/XLB/IAK for that conservative idea, I'm more focused on market recovery, and clean energy should continue to be the #1 sector, so I'd have TAN, the solar ETF that is by far the best performing ETF for the past five years, even including a weak year this year. Aside from that, I'd say just be prepared for whenever the market does start clearly being positive. China in particular has a lot of potential (months not years) of upward movement since it went down so low. Good luck.
Thanks for info…I’m in TLT, TMF and XLB. Just thinking with inverse yield curve in short term bonds, I could make some money on those rates flattening out, and yield curve returning to normal.
# Tickers of Interest - TL;DR **Gamma Max Cross** * [LQD](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#LQD) 12/16 105P for $1.20 or less * [BP](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#BP) 12/16 33P for $0.60 or less * [EMB](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#EMB) 12/16 83P for $1.30 or less * [MRVL](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#MRVL) 12/16 42.5P for $2.45 or less * [HD](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#HD) 12/16 310P for $8.85 or less **Delta Neutral Cross** * [HYG](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#HYG) 12/16 74P for $1.20 or less * [VZ](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#VZ) 12/16 38P for $0.60 or less * [ASTS](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#ASTS) 12/16 7.5C for $0.50 or less * [XLB](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#XLB) 12/16 79P for $1.65 or less * [FL](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#FL) 12/16 35P for $1.30 or less # Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today. This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0. For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals. The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV. # Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle * If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open. * Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. * I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in. * The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. # FAQ - Because others have already asked. * These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? * No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. * Are you entering all these plays? * No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn. * You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean? * The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not. * Where are the crayons? I only see words. * Click the links above. * Have you back-tested this? * Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error) * What is the historical performance? * The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.85 with a 67% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 49% and 72%. (Stats as of 2022-10-28)
XLB a good indication of what tomorrow brings
What chemical and material stocks jw? My 3 material stocks are rio,vale and LIT etf. I've been looking to add some chemicals though so my materials isn't only minerals. Was looking at Dow and APD. But I have no real insight into materials so I haven't pulled the trigger as I might just go with XLB
My best advice is to sell the options and rake in the premiums. Start with XLE, XLB and other lower end priced stock with high trade volumes, accumulate the stock quantities needed to sell the call/put and boom, money. Now, you do still have risk doing this but far far less than guessing which direct SPY will go
Nailed the bottom to close my puts today. They were worth a little more at close yesterday, though. Nbd. 80% return. Closed LZR puts, 100% up too. Holding XLB puts that are up 10% but bid/ask is shit. Looking at more spy puts near end of day. May just chop all day, but more downside is coming.
2008 was more of a systemic plumbing failure caused by MBS hyper-exponentialism. Today, it's just simple risk correction, although I admit, liquidity drying up worldwide is a silent killer to all equities and bonds. What shocks me, though, is the recent decline of XLE, XLB, high-yield mREITs, and clang gang. Nowhere to hide. But a 1987 or 2008 crash? I'm not sure the algos will allow every put contract to print.
Adding more shorts with 5/20 SPX 4450/4475 @ 15.90. You're telling me 75% of my watchlist is red yet SPY is positive for the day? FB is down -7%+, NVDA down -3.35%+, GOOGL down -1.25%+. MMs think rotating into safe sectors like XLE, XLB, XLI, XLP, XLV are going to save the market? Holy fuck this is going to be the greatest double down play or the biggest disaster
I really really wanted to believe that this bounce was going to restore market structure and bring us back to new highs (that's why I did PCS on NVDA because it has high beta so would move a lot if the bounce did stabilize). But I have to trade what I see, not what I think. There's gigantic distribution going on in tech and red-flag buying exhaustion signals. We're at a huge inflection point, I'm sure large institutional funds have their stop losses ranging from SPY $440 to $447. My thesis is that since the selling pressure is definitely stronger, it will cascade like a waterfall and trigger automatic sell orders which may turn into margin calls. I'm anticipating relentless institutional black box selling if this happens. Market structure is neutral/bearish and path of least resistance is definitely towards the downside. Although big money is rotating into XLE, XLB, XLP, XLU, and XLV the largest composition of SPY is XLK. Tech is like 25% of the S&P and it looks like it's going to roll over. If tech goes, everything goes. /NQ got rejected at weekly 21 EMA and failed bounce signal = strongest sell signal. If there's one downside setup that I've been milking for years, its: "If market structure is negative and price comes up from below to a negatively sloped daily 21 EMA, short the living shit out of the markets." You can backtest it if you want, it happened on 1/12, 2/2, 2/9, 2/16, 3/2, and today (4/8). There's also a specific trigger to take this setup but I can't say what it is. Targets are at -2 ATR where you can scale out, and close all at -3 ATR. Its just a mean reversion setup that I love. Think about how many people are currently trapped long, the people who FOMOed long right now are thinking: "Hmm should I sell now for a small loss?" What happens if the market does dump hard? Then retail will probably start panic selling. If you can understand the psychology of the people on the other side of the trade then you can use it to your advantage in your own strategy. Remember, the biggest moves happen when most people are wrong, that's why I love the downside because the most explosive moves happen as human nature causes irrational panic selling
XLF XLI XLB and XLE on dips. I would personally stay tech heavy but these are good areas to diversify in.
The best performers of the 2000-2003 bear market were, in order: Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) Consumer Discretionary Select Sect SPDR ETF (XLY) \[yes, I know, weird\] Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) The early 2000s were characterized by a rotation into value, a commodity "supercycle" (energy and gold for example benefited), and the collapse of high-flying tech. The biggest losers were technology, utilities, industrials, and consumer staples (the latter three being pinched by rising commodity prices). The 1970s are another well-known period where "value" stocks had relative outperformance. They are also another period remembered for inflation and runaway commodity prices. Banks are flush with deposits and several of them have "asset sensitive" loans (particularly WFC, BAC, and JPM among national banks) due to commercial lending. While outright recession isn't good for any sector, they benefit from higher interest. I wouldn't bet against Energy, Materials, or Financials right now. The current environment is pretty much ideal for them to experience relative outperformance.
Buy sector specific ETFs. XLK. XLB . XLE. Etc
That is a good one, might wait till 50 though just nervous about XLB especially with Gold being so high
I think being long on defensive positions is a solid strategy right now. XLP, XLU, XLB, SPYV, BRK
Low pole reversals on Materials (XLB), Technology (XLK), Industrial (XLI) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) all were measured as occurring yesterday (25 Feb).
Half of my investments are ETFs. Half of those are 3x leveraged...UPRO, TQQQ and UDOW all bought at the previous bottom on Jan 28th. I've been adding to these positions during every dip and have averaged down considerably. I'm satisfied with the positions and hedge against downturns by investing in sector ETFs like XLB or VDE. I've yet to hear anything convincing on why this strategy won't work. Of course my portfolio is a little more volatile but as long as I sell high the leverage can only help.
Wouldn’t material stock collections like XLB be safer than most other sector ETFs this year?
I would personally go 15% ARKK 35% QQQ 10% VBK 10% XLF 10% XLE 10% XLB 10% XLI
I sold off 80% of the VGT shares Ive been dca’ing into for 10 years. It was time to take profits. Traded out XLE, XLF, XLI, XLB, and XLY. After we go through a couple earnings cycles Ill reassess if its time to get more tech heavy again. Ill feel way more comfortable with the mega caps come down in P/e. NVDA at 70 or 80 x’s earnings? Come on.
Getting screwed by XLB today after being up 80% before FOMC
UDOW. Companies like Nucor are working because they have way lower price to earnings multiples. The s&p will float down as stocks in XLE, WFC, and XLB rise in p/e and the bloated tech behemoths level out. I switched out of VGT and got into those aforementioned etfs and hold some Nucor, Ford, and GUSH.
Very nice, XLB looking pampish too
SPY is a lot of stuff. XLE, XLI, XLB, XLP all doing well. Yes, AAPL & TSLA are in XLK which is 30% of SPY.
Damn XLB looks ready to break out
Look at what happened in June, the last time there was a hawkish Fed meeting that became market moving. In old economy stuff, including the cyclically tilted big cap index: Dow: -3.5% XLF: -6.2% XLE: -5.4% XLI: -3.8% XLB: -6.2% The funny thing was that tech outperformed that week, but the TL/DR of this story is that if the market decides that the Fed being hawkish is concerning for the economy, then the Dow and Dow type stocks will get hammered. Which is why I said that if the market decides the Fed is being too tough, then oil/financials/industrials/etc, are getting thrown away as well.
Our recommended strategies are: – Energy – Homebuilders (Golden 6 months) $XHB – Small-caps $IWM – Epicenter $XLI $XLF $XLB $RCD – Creeptoe equities $BITO $GBTC $BITW
no. there was a glitch. If you shadowed my trade on XLB, someone bought 1 call ridiculously expensive right at close.
I think my account is bugging. It’s saying my XLB calls are up 200% but but there is no real movement overnight. If that’s the case I’m selling at open.
Wtf. The XLB calls at last minute skewed my port
If you are in value names, even if they are old economy type stuff, I'm not exactly sure how you were positive today. Pull up a sector chart or look at XLE/XLI/XLF/XLB...all the old economy type stuff got completely and thoroughly stomped into the ground into the close.
Rates are breaking out on a long term scale yesterday and today. XLF, XLI, XLE, XLB moon missions to resume in short order. They’ve all traded mostly sideways for months now so great buy points overall. And options are cheap af
They count. I did XLE and XLB and a couple other "sector" ETFs. Thought I was smart and would target hot sectors. Well those hot sectors went cold the week after I bought them. I'm holding and they are very slowly recovering.
It feels like we've had rolling corrections for a while. When growth was declining cyclicals were picking up the slack. When cyclicals were out of favour FAANG was holding up the indexes. So far this **this year** * IWM (Russel 2000) had a **9.8%** correction * XLP (Consumer staples): **5.4%** correction * XLF (Finance sector): **8.7%** correction * XLK (Technology): **8.5%** * XLI (Industrial): **6.3%** * XLV (Healthcare): **6.5%** * XLE (Energy): **18.5%** * XLB (Materials): **10.5%**
I trade OTM options on indices where a clear trend is taking place, and when my macroeconomic outlook supports it. For example, financials and energy have had a strong rebound this week, so I'll look at 1 -2 strike OTM and use ATR to help me have an idea about the likelyhood the price can get past breakeven. 1-2 week out options are the most liquid and sensitive I've found. I'm able to get 5-20% daily returns in a small account by buying and holding overnight to avoid PDT rules, and selling/adding more on the next day. 3-4 positions max, and chart analysis of the underlying to help me figure out what to do intraday(star, engulfing, doji on 5min chart). When a trade is up over 20% I'll set trailing stops. So far this has worked pretty well with XLK, KRE, XOP, XLE, and XLB for me. IF someone can explain why ITM is better for my strategy I'm all ears.
OK thanks for the input, I'll keep all that in mind. I definitely intend to start small. I have already traded around a bit but will build more experience before risking any serious money. FWIW I opted for that sample size because XLB had a rough patch this year. The longer sample sizes (1 year, 2 year, etc.) looked better than 1 Jan to now.
What limit would you recommend when scalping? I'm basing the 200% limit for strategy #2 on this backtesting (I think this publicly viewable)? [https://backtesting.edeltapro.com/backtest/H7RzYEJpSrM5ibkorxGsD8ULpQQ2/PICKaVdvxuUT0w7VIyiq](https://backtesting.edeltapro.com/backtest/H7RzYEJpSrM5ibkorxGsD8ULpQQ2/PICKaVdvxuUT0w7VIyiq) I'm using XLB here as a fill-in for SPY since I'd have to have the full subscription to test against SPY. Does this look inaccurate to you? I'm new to backtesting.
Rotation! Rotation! My DIA, XLF, XLB and BRK going crazy
Short puts in KRE, XLB, and XRT that had all gone ITM at some point and I've just been rolling month to month until I can close them for 0. Still ITM, but now much less so lol
For me, banks got hit inexplicably hard following what should have been good news for them following FOMC. I’m bullish on all the inflation friendly stocks for the next year-ish so when XLF/XLI/XLB all dipped hard for no real reason I was all over it. Waited for that dip to bottom out and got in on all of them last Tuesday to hold up to mid channel at least before taking any profits
XLB and GDX in addition to XLF and XLE.
Nice I was making money off of my XLB leap. I made like 1K but then this reccent correction happened and I only have a 400$ gain. I'm still gonna hold because I believe in The Thesis but financial stocks are also probably worth looking into
I’ve invested heavily in XLB 6 months ago and I’m up 10%. I’d pull out but it doesn’t seem like it’s dipping any time soon and it’s been steadily rising. I’d say look into it.
I’m thinking about XLB or FCX calls but I don’t know if the materials massacre is over or just taking a break
Anyone else kind of feeling like the market in general is just losing steam? Spy seems so tired…starting to get worried we may finally be in for a little exhaustion correction here soon. Usually wouldn’t pay any mind to that kind of thought but I had the same fleeting thought about XLF/XLI/XLB when they all got hung up at that high recently. I dismissed it then but it turns out I was completely right…
I have a short XLB 86c expiring tomorrow and it suddenly went $4 ITM today lol
XLB is the ETF responsible for the building and materials sector and about 10 minutes before market closes 5000 August $90 calls get bought and coincidentally Congress reaches an agreement on the infrastructure deal tonight. 🤔 Link for proof. https://i.imgur.com/fk0TuTW.jpg
5000 calls bought 10 minutes before close on XLB and magically Congress reaches a deal with the infrastructure plan tonight. What a coincidence… https://i.imgur.com/fWmuWLv.jpg
Lmao the only red sectors are the ones I’m in… XLF XLI and XLB the only things down on a day with HIGHER THAN EXPECTED INFLATION DATA. I give up man what the fuck lol
What the fuck is going on with Materials lately…XLB calls are supposed to be printing alongside XLI and XLF….
XLB-XME-XLE-OIH get paid
But XLF, XLE, XME, XLB all beat SPY YoY. Is a .12 fee high?
Yes I bought Sector ETFs because of the coming inflation XLF, XLE, XLI, XLB and others. I am avoiding the Tech Sector. I heard that S&P 500 was heavily weighted towards the Tech Sector. I own MFST and GOOG stock. But I don't like the Tech Sector in the face of inflation.
I came here to say this. XLF and ( prior to this month) XLB have been money for me. I'm not convinced I should sell XLB just yet, but it's getting close
XLF, XLE, XLB, you name it, fuckers have not moved in 3 weeks. can we get fucking moving??
what the fuck XLB, why are you stuck at 87, SPY is climbing