Reddit Posts
In an irrationnal world, Charter communications (CHTR) might be the swing trade we don't deserve
In an irrationnal world, Charter communications (CHTR) might be the swing trade we don't deserve
MOO ETF looks like the best setup for the next 30-90 days with this war and feed prices climbing
$MOS: The "Hormuz Arbitrage" Nobody is Talking About. Why the Market is Wrong about the Sulfur Crisis.
Fertilizer trade - still early? $MOS $CF
$NOMA - UP almost 12% @$4.61 on 87k volume, HOD @$4.88. Amazing day so far, Power Hour could bring $5. Developed in collaboration with Cádiz CF, Our XI provides a practical, real-world perspective on how professional clubs operate behind the scenes.
If Hormuz stays disrupted, fertilizer might be the sleeper trade
$NOMA - Quiet day today... Developed in collaboration with Cádiz CF, Our XI provides a practical, real-world perspective on how professional clubs operate behind the scenes, covering key areas.
$CF yolo in the roth IRA. No nat gas fertilizers will be coming from the middle east this whole growing season
$CF 100k++ gainz in one day, thank you Value Investors for the fertilizers heads up
12 MARCH 2026 STOCK MOVES . IF YOU ARE CONFUSED , HERE IS WHAT IS PUSHING SMALL CAP COMPANIES
Not just oil....but also fertiliser...one third passes through the Hormuz.
HOVR (Horizon Aircraft) - IMO the most asymetric bet
On the Verge of a Major Announcement… All Signals Point to a Potential Breakout
EON Resources ($EONR) DD: Totally underpriced and insiders buying
EON Resources ($EONR) DD: Totally underpriced and insiders buying
How to distinguish between "Cash On Hand" and "Marketable Securities" from a company's financials?
Before I invest… thoughts on Yarnhub’s Reg CF raise?
Context is king: Ranking stocks against their peers
Why Costco Scores Higher Than Apple in Quality (Surprised?)
Systematic stock selection with a multi-layered quality scoring model
A coworking startup for doctors is raising through equity crowdfunding
PHGE is pumping up. at 0.53 now but will be up .06-.08 by the end of the day
$PHGE - BiomX’s “Bacteria-Eating Virus” Therapy Shows 500-Fold Reduction in Deadly CF Infections: Company Announces Major Scientific Validation in Key Publication | Newsblaze (NYSE: PHGE)
VRTX is quietly developing VX-548, a non-addictive pain killer that's showing promise, and going to moon soon. Tell me why I'm wrong.
TACO’s ‘Beautiful’ Bill Casts a Cloud Over Hydrogen’s Future
Immersed SEC Filings Show Different Cash Totals — Form C/A Lists $1.59M, But C-AR Says $242K. Honest mistake or red flag?
Oxy is the most undervalued company based on FCF yield on EV in the market right now.
BlackRock Has Quietly Opened The Door To A ‘Trillion-Dollar Plus’ Wall Street Game-Changer Amid The $700 Billion Crypto Price Boom
Vertex (VRTX) reports positive results for its non-opioid pain killer
Wouldn't it be a good idea to make Philip Morris colapse ?
Comparisson of 3 Big Car Manufacturers (F, TM, VW)
My Pitch for CF (NYSE:CF) Going to $85
CME Group and CF Benchmarks Launch BTC and ETH Reference Rates
Planning for CF's Earnings Report: A Tactical Approach
How can I access the private markets as an un-accredited investor?
Understanding How to Perform Research on Stocks is a big hurdle for new investors.
Shopify Inc. ($SHOP) is attracting investor attention: Here is what you should know.
Pre-market Movers:$SILO, $OLB,$MIGI, $FWBI
Soccer: Lionel Messi to join Inter Miami CF in massive win for MLS and significant blow to Saudi Arabia’s global sports ambitions
Regulation CF with Cytonics Corp? They're beginning human trials soon and awaiting FDA approval
TikTok - Free £15 Amazon Voucher. (Extended until 9th March)
Simple and practical! How to use the relative valuation method to value stocks
Richest Canada Lithium Brine Deposit ever found today: $EMPPF has 75%, ROK ($PTRDF) has 25% but ROK already a 1 PE stock from oil profits. They hit Lithium while trying to find oil.
$ICL Is the only company in the fertilizer market who keeps beating earnings and is growing! Compared to its peers $MOS $CF $IPI
Here's a fun read about the Adani fiasco and all his loans. With Credit Suisse, Barclays and the State Bank of India as guest characters.
Here's a fun read about the Adani fiasco and all his loans. With Credit Suisse, Barclays and the State Bank of India as guest characters.
$ICL Is the only company in the fertilizer market who keeps beating earnings and is growing! Compared to its peers $MOS $CF $IPI
$ICL Is the only company in the fertilizer market who keeps beating earnings and is growing! Compared to its peers $MOS $CF $IPI
Raymond James initiates Brighthouse at Market Perform based on P/CF valuation
Penny Stocks To Buy Now? 5 To Watch After News This Week
Santander post an 18% jump in profit to a record 9.6 billion euros in 2022, offsetting higher provisions set aside against uncertain economic conditions.
Imugene Ltd. [OTC: IUGNF], [ASX: IMU] - Well funded, developing a range of new treatments that activate cancer patients' own immune system to identify and eradicate tumors.
Is the bottom in? or is the next "top" in? ..... 12-2-22 SPY Weekly Market Recap and Analysis
APRN Bull on this stock. They’re going full green new deal. With this and all the stay home save lives Covid cult I’m predicting a double combo new subscription wave. Leading to boosting that revenue. LFG! Bears bout to be rushing to the exit and my bags will be rescued!🚀
Boys I found our way out of the matrix
Boys, I found our way out of the Matrix.
Boys I found a way out of the matrix.
$NTR, $CF, $MOS - AG Fertilizer Bull Market 2007/8 vs 2022
CFVI - 15 September Merger Vote Date for Shareholders, It's official
Mentions
Do you actually have any experience with investing in private small businesses? If not - it's usually not the kind of businesses that inexperienced investors should be dabbling in - unless it's just throw-away speculative gambles. You really need to understand how to read and understand the offering circular of whatever you plan to invest into. Just to clarify - LaunchVector is not really a scam. But their marketing and their business practice sounds a bit on the dubious side. They are basically just another small business broker who operate in a weird niche. They fall into a Reg CF/A+ world of investing where they are largely unregulated and investors do not have to necessarily be accredited. The odd part of their business model is that they seem to focus on very small ecommerce business. Small business brokers and low-tier investment banking who help raise capital for businesss are a legit business. But you really have to know and trust the business that you are investing into. Would you have access to the business operators? Do you get access to their books? What percentage of the business is owned by you? Or are you in a fund or pool of 100's of other investors with no access to the business? So - think of it this way - if a business is doing well or has a good business idea - the founders would raise capital either through personal loans, venture loans, or angel capital/private VC. Ask yourself - why would a business go through a small business broker to sell equity to an investor that can't help them grow their business other than for the capital? If you decide to invest - how is the fund or business valuation done? Are you sure you believe the valuation? Are the revenue and expenses audited? If not - can you trust the numbers? What's the exit strategy? Is it a equity or debt deal? These are just some of the basic questions that you have to understand.
OXY's the contrarian energy play. fertilizer's the cleaner version of the same thesis. $MOS $CF $NTR have feedstock exposure and the workarounds (reformulations, red sea trucking) are happening regardless of oil. disruption hits fertilizer fundamentals before OXY's earnings.
That is a very stretched connection. I am no expert here,but quantum needs a significantly more complicated than photonics. Photonics infra components, laser, wafer are here before AI. They are now repositioning for AI Infra. Lumentum, Coherent, AEHR have order book for photonics. There are some small ones in the supply chain. What I see is Nvidia won’t sit quietly with that much CF. They will push some of these innovation in photonics and similar infra models for faster and low energy concepts.
🥸 ”Yeah b-b-but this semiconductor company has no positive CF and EV/Sales of 586x”🥸 The economists can talk all they want but this is THE GREATEST BULL MARKET and MAGNACHIP SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION WILL MOON
| Company | Revenue | CapEx | Operating CF | FCF | FCF Margin | |---------|---------|-------|--------------|-----|------------| | **Apple** | $385B | $11B | $110B | $99B | **26%** | | **Microsoft** | $245B | $44B | $118B | $74B | **30%** | | **Alphabet** | $340B | $32B | $101B | $69B | **20%** | | **Meta** | $135B | $28B | $71B | $43B | **32%** | | **Amazon** | $575B | $52B | $84B | $32B | **6%** | | **Tesla** | $97B | $9B | $13B | $4B | **4%** | | **SpaceX** | **$18.8B** | **$40.4B** | **$(2.6B)** | **$(43B)** | **-229%** |
I bought Chevron and CF (fertilizers). Equinor is also something to check
CF killing it. Im buying 12/26-mid 2027 calls.
Maybe it was the oversized bets on negative CF companies with 500% YTD we made along the way
Yeah im familiar with the various s&p plays, after hanging around this sub for years and seeing everyones options ripping im ready to increase my degeneracy. Im thinking about long calls of spy into jan/ feb 27, as well as long calls of CF industries (CF) into march 27. But i have no idea how sound this strategy might be
So are my CF calls going to be green or is taco opening the strait before market opens tomorrow?
Why no NTR, CF, OXY, ET, VG ?
NBIS put, MSTR put, CF call, USO call
Mosaic is a dogshit ass company. Better off with CF for exposure
Anyone else riding CF up? Hormuz doesn't seem to be opening very soon.
SAP at new 52 week low. Given their sticky product and high CF, might be a good entry
Again, I am just focusing on your assertion that Burry values things based on CF. I think you just agreed that at least in NVDA case, his thesis for 2027 is in fact absurd. $300B FCF for 26+27 is actually the lowest projection. Re: comparison to dot coms....there were a shitload of dark fibers for years due to the over-investment. Meantime, currently, companies continue to use up all the available tokens, and we haven't evern really started on physical AI yet. The comparison between the two eras is IMHO not analogous at all.
NVDA with $150B+ FCF and growing double digits, so he would short them because he values things on CF?
why is $CF pumping last 30 minutes?
LOVED CORN and CF last week with gas oil fertalizer situation and farmers switching to grow soy over corn Iran will never ever back down so this is really going to moon. Love TSLA bought calls two weeks ago and close some today and let some ride
Damn CF is taking off. Sold my position on Friday because I thought I was way too early.
big CORN and CF and POET and TSLA bull LFG!!!
Too many chicken sandwiches out there already (CF, Popeyes, even Arby’s has a great chicken sandwich)
CF calls should be so obvious. Still pretty good probably.
Not good not terrible, the core thesis remains, farmers can only postpone phosphate and potash for so long, everyone is hyped on CF and peers due to spikes in nitrogen and right on but you can't maintain yields with nitrogen alone, you need the trifecta, Mosaic may not have been able to pass on costs in this quarter but eventually they will. In the end, the farmers will have to absorb the cost and then we'll see how much of that can be past on to consumers.
CF NTR IPI seem to all be better fertilizer plays than MOS after the Earnings Reports. MOS might have some structural problems; they’re getting it on both the input costs side while not being reaping sufficiently from the higher prices for output.
MOS is the worst for fertilizer plays. If you are gonna bet on old world stuff you actually need a brain. In particular your chemistry knowledge is lacking. The key idea is looking at what their inputs are. MOS sulfate business is affected by sulfur shortages. NTR is the better play because of their huge potash reserves. CF is also a better play because it uses North American natural gas to make fertilizer which is dirt cheap. The earnings and fundamentals for both CF and NTR are so much better than MOS as evinced by the latest earnings. But I think energy is a good play this summer, but you will probably see a wave in the old sectors. Oil stuff goes up in the summer, then fertilizer goes parabolic during the fall planting, then food staples get affected by supply shock so staples go up in early 2027. If you want to be a degenerate just do S&P puts with a strike price of 600 and an expiration of March 2027. BTW, anyone saying that this falls apart based on Hormuz opening, that’s BS. We already flew off the cliff. Be ready for the west coast of the US to have oil shortages in mid June, and the rest of the country by mid July.
This is relevant: > NEW YORK, Feb. 18, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- GD Culture Group Limited (“GDC” or the “Company”) (Nasdaq: GDC) today announced that its board of directors has authorized a share repurchase program under which the Company may repurchase up to US$100 million worth of its shares within the next 6 months ending on August 17, 2026, subject to market conditions. Under the share repurchase program, the Company may periodically repurchase its common stock through open market or privately negotiated transactions thereof in compliance with applicable securities laws and the Company’s insider trading policy. The number of common stocks to be repurchased and the timing of repurchases will be determined by management at its discretion and will depend on a number of factors, including, but not limited to, bitcoin price based on the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate - New York Variant, price, trading volume and general market conditions of the shares, along with the Company’s working capital requirements and general business conditions and applicable legal requirements. The Company’s board of directors will review the share repurchase program periodically, and may authorize adjustments to its terms and/or size.
They’re not quite at the level of “no-nines” like GitHub, but for a cloud provider they’re entirely unreliable. You have to build around unreliability for CF. You do the same in other providers, but for those you’re building for the exception, not the rule.
If anyone wants to get in on a long play assuming global fertilizer supply will be fucked because of Hormuz for the next year, CF is a good buy and on the cheap today.
My chemical company is currently planning for limited supply of sulfuric acid domestically. Looks like domestic manufacturers like CF or MOS might do well?
\> there is REALLY expected to be a shortage later this year and next And presumably that's worldwide, with the worst shortages outside of the USA, at least for fertilizer who's production is dependent on natural gas as the feedstock. Do you foresee the companies you mention (UAN, CF, NTR) as profiting by exporting? They may incur higher natural gas prices (like everyone else) but they should have all the supply they need (and others may not). And what do you think of this: ammonia is increasingly looking favorable long term as a transportatio fuel -- particular in global shipping. Do you anticipate UAN, CF and NTR will benefit from that. Ammonia is less dense as a fuel than petroleum-derived ones, but (NH3 - no carbon!) burns cleaner (NO2 is a problem).
Sure. I have significant AI exposure and decided to balance out of SP500 to the below for about 50%+. Retirement days are knocking First is BRK and Brookfield. Imo, they are better capital allocators than me. Thats it and the thesis here. The 2nd is under what is termed HALO strategy - Hard Assets Low Obsolescence. Without going too much into it, my gut feeling is that this should be direction until 2030 or so until the AI winner/loser gets shaken out. Likely low beta, mature tech industries, even if they modernize their ops XOM is my first reach here. I chose this instead of XLE because of potential alpha compared to that. I think that with the Pioneer buy XOM will work out well irrespective how and when the Iran stupidity works out. XOM is clearly well run and professionally managed to ride all these cycles. Next one is a major global mining company - I am looking for strength in management, geographical footprint, scale (very important), excellent relationship with the governments they operate in. Note I am not picking the metal/mineral itself as these will be global multi mining ops. Maybe Glencore The next one is Ag - I decided to go with fertilizers. CF Industries, Nutrien, Mosaic. Boring volatility. I have not chosen any petrochemicals/chemicals yet. I worked in capital markets and decided to pick Moodys and S&P Global. They have a regulated moat that is difficult to replicate. This private credit/equity will/may bite, but ok for me. This is not Hard Asset but an essential one in global credit markets. There is AI threat which is somewhat addressed by being entrenched incumbents. I decided against exchanges, and felt this was smaller pond/big fish choice. Royalty streams for Gold/Silver Railways - likely Canadian National. Trump has triggered Canada to look elsewhere for trade, and railways is the necessary trade infrastructure for this trade growth. At least thats my thesis. The last is my tech bet and speculation - solid state battery tech. Toyota (yesss), QuantumScope(?), SolidPower(?). Bought Toyota and will do a bit more research. The window really kicks in later in '28 or later, but can be patient btw - thanks for asking as I had to spell it out. Happy to hear your comments - my thesis above does not reflect any fundamental valuations, charts, etc. Just the risk exposures I want in my portfolio
Traded it a bit in the early days of the war.y.obly exposure now is potash royalties own by altius minerals. CF is a huge beneficiary of the war because their urea based fertilizer. This is what was disrupted. NTR does mostly potash and is a decent trading proxy, but is not as big a beneficiary. MOS has some other problems they're working through. IPI is an interesting small cap name trading at book value and probably offers the highest torque up if potash takes off. My two cents. The war already sent urea prices into the stratosphere. Not sure how much overlap there is for farmers to use potash, but the potash supply hasn't been disrupted.
Yeah, I'm holding CF and currently up about 10% so far. MOS has been getting beaten up bad recently, not sure why exactly
I wish you luck as I tried that exact same trade earlier late 2025-early 2026. I gave up & dumped $MOS for nearly a $10k loss in mid March and added that cash to my $VXUS dip buys. The trade should work. It worked extremely well for $CF and $NTR. I was prolly too impatient.
I don't think they are comparable, Dow doesn't really make fertilizers. CF and Mosaic are definitely benefiting from elevated fertilizer price, expect their margin to go up in Q2 at least
No fertilizer, that will be Mosaic or CF industries. Dow is more on specialty chemicals, lots of plastics and foams
All my stocks are missing on this pink sheet. OXY, DVN, CF
The issue right now is 1) GPU is still inflated through some metric of financial engineering at over $6000 per vehicle sold (CarMax and other competitiors sit at around $2000) 2) SEC is still subpoenaing their accounting department 3) Operating CF decrease due to their recent increase in inventory, they are going to have to bank on the consumer not being weak in the next couple quarters or else it will reflect badly in future earnings 4) and did I say the SEC is literally investigating them for accounting fraud
CEO also has history of buying Instagram for 1b and turning it out to be what it is nowadays. Still remember when people called him crazy. Innovation ain't free. Some ideas work, some don't. Meta still has cards to play which people ain't taking into account right now because they're only pumping ads. Once they start monetizing personal agent figures and more of their glasses, we'll see a shift in mindset in regards to that ideology of "CEO's history of wasting CF on poor ideas"
Lol, is that just because it's one letter away from CF?
Also if you think fertilizer won't get price controlled CF is a pretty good deal
I bought calls on CF today. Huge into Urea dude.....huge
best trade I ever made was buying a Lexar 512 gb CF express type b for 400 when it's 800 now
Fertilizer IS the place to be with the SOH down. I looked at Yara this week and it is too thinly traded for me (maybe you live outside the US). I’m long UAN (ER Wed) and CF (ER May 6th).
Iran does things on the London exchange, CF: oil shorts placed just before the tweet where they agreed to open Hormuz. And then the longs when they tweeted that "open" still meant paying the transit fee. Trump and his crew do their thing on NYSE and Comex.
Nana should have hold, still those earnings look very regarded starting with the first line in CF statement
Also fertilizer stocks like IPI, CF, UAN or Agriculture ETF DBA. All increasing due to Iran war supply disruptions. You can be successful in any market if you're willing to pivot. Good luck
I didn't even mention CF... keep on keeping regard
Hey, Berkshire is in cash! **Panic is underrated.** We're living in a surreal moment, when the damage already done from the Iran war will CERTAINLY lead to economic hardship worldwide. You know the litany (shortages of fuel, fertilizer, sulfur and helium for semiconductors) will lead to inflation, airline failures, reduced travel, unemployment, and -- most enduring of all -- huge resentment about the United States causing the mess. The problem, investment wise, is no one knows for sure what to do about it. Go to cash? But the dollar may crash. Go to gold? But governments and people strapped for cash are selling. No one knows what will go up, let alone what will just hold value (apart from a prepper's closet full of cans of beans). **The only sure thing is this is a big moment -- bigger than COVID, and more profound long term than 2008.** And war and economic chaos leads to political chaos.... For what it's worth (and I just make the case it's not worth much) I'm in cash, and a few bucks on gold, silver, foreign (non-US) treasuries, and a few flyers on stocks that might do well (CF a fertilizer company, CALM a company that sells boring ol' eggs, and some biotech longshots). I think TLSA may find get its long overdue comeuppance, and AI (a real thing, but more hyped and over-invested than the bubble of 2000) may crash too. Buckle up. You instincts these are momentous times are 100% correct.
ceasefire 3: hormuz drift too cease to fire cease 5 fire 6 CF7
I haven't run a true valuation but LYB but I imagine it is still extremely unvalued in this environment. Pure oil and gas is def more attractive. CF Industries is the best fertilizer bet. I have 20k in calls on Mosaic Company, 35 strike 9/18 expiry. Hoping those print very well.
Your analysis is sound but you are betting on the same thing. Its not true diversification if all of the assets that you are in will more or less move in tandem. Look into chemical producers whose main feedstock is natural gas as well. LYB will be very advantaged in this environment, so will fertilizer companies like CF Industries, Mosaic but less so. Real risk at this point is domestic political regulations., I think the war is destined to continue and Hormuz will remain shut.
Market today: ASTS up, MOS/NTR/CF up, SNDK down, AMD down
>because the capitalists pocket all the productivity gains duh. Each google web search saves [~15 minutes](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/experimental-economics/article/abs/day-without-a-search-engine-an-experimental-study-of-online-and-offline-searches/CF6C56C722402EAFF28C476EA4FFB828). Google provides about $8 of value per search. At the average 4 searches per day that's $12,260 per person per year. If you're a power user this could be hundreds of thousands of dollars. At an aggregate 16 billion searches per year this is $131 billion value per year, from only one of Google's verticals. Page and Brin are worth ~250B each. So essentially they were each compensated 2 years worth of the $131B perpetuity they created, not counting everything Google has shipped since. The customers overwhelmingly pocket the productivity. If you feel you are getting an unfair deal, stop using corporate products. Or create something of similar value yourself and don't take any compensation.
There is a big disconnect between equities and commodities market right now. The nitrogen which is the basis for fertilizer has an insane supply chock. After the closure of the hormuz and the destruction of Qatar Production facilities, there a huge dip in the total available nitrogen. And the Urea which is the commodity that tracks it is at an all time high and keeps going up, even though the equities that provides it are going down (CF, NTR, ... etc). The thing is, the companies already locked in the high prices of urea for Q1, and seems like Q2 is going to be wilder even though the equities are dropping. I expect the earnings to blow. Add to that the shutdown of entire Bangladesh fertilizers factories due to lack of supply and plantation season coming, so we will be in a big shock on food prices soon. However, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent ...
So far, I am the only one here long on ferts. But based on incorrect info, I suspect the other comments are NOT knowledgeable about the situation. Now I know who to BLOCK. I follow US companies UAN and CF, who produce here in the US for fert that stays in the US. Fert $ are cyclical, and going into 2026 it was probably year 2 of a 5 year high $ cycle. Before the war started the prediction was that there would be a shortage. Now, as you are aware, there is REALLY expected to be a shortage later this year and next. It’s too soon to know how long. I suggest you go to seeking alpha.com (no space) and search for the latest article on UAN from Publius. If you want to invest, I’m NOT sure of the laws but I think there is some very negative tax reason(s) to NOT invest in UAN as a foreign investor, which is an MLP. Which is unfortunate since they have quarterly distributions and this year and next they are expected to be crazy high.
CF killed me officially. goodbye
puts on CF was the easiest / most obvious move of all time
Late night reflection from an old guy (is 55 old?) with perhaps a rare if not unique perspective. Please bear with me for a moment, I'm going somewhere with this. When I was growing up in the 1970s-80s, the life expectancy for a child born with cystic fibrosis was 5 years. Five years. As late as 2005 only 5 states tested neonates for cystic fibrosis because there wasn't much to do about it: No disease-modifying treatments. Hit them with mucolytics and aggressively manage infections, that's it. I remember seeing a poster when I was a wet-behind-the-years postdoc at a FASEB meeting in the mid-90s by a crappy little company called Vertex Pharma that was trading at several bucks a share. They were trying to develop small molecules to help proteins fold better in diseases like cystic fibrosis and I thought "My goodness THAT is where I should put my money"... except (1) I had almost no money; (2) what money I had I invested in trying to fix my crappy used car and get laid, and (3) I didn't believe in my own financial good judgement. This perhaps was the worst financial mistake I ever made. Fast forward to 2025 when Vertex is a 112 BILLION DOLLAR COMPANY; 4th gen CFTR folding helpers have reached a point where, in the case of the most common CF variant (F508del) the life expectancy of a child who begins taking them by age 15 IS NO DIFFERENT THAN THE POPULATION AVERAGE. Read that again: Kids who would have died at 5 years old when I was a kid are living full lives, getting married, starting businesses, all the good stuff. Because that science worked. Now GANX is doing the SAME CONCEPTUAL THING for Parkinson's disease, with a platform that can feasibly expand to Alzheimer's disease. Don't trust me? Consider from ChatGPT5.2 query "Is there an analogy between the mechanism of action of glucocerebrosidase folding chaperones being developed by Gain pharmaceuticals and the compounds that Vertex developed for cystic fibrosis years ago?" Answer: https://preview.redd.it/c1v7l4cw1hvg1.png?width=1008&format=png&auto=webp&s=597d7ebed9cb97afd8e011b8f978b24f3e0a5318 The risk, of course, is that CNS indications are a much harder proving ground than CF, and financing today is a devilishly harder thing than it was in the 1990s. Nonetheless... Vertex Pharma had about $800 million market cap around 1995. I would have realized a 140-fold gain had I invested in Vertex in the mid 1990s. Now consider: PD market alone is 20-FOLD greater than cystic fibrosis market. Yet literally the same concept: A small molecule that can help a busted protein fold up better and work right. Now consider the initial human studies appear to have arrested disease at least in a subset of PD patients with the right genetic susceptibility. And the $GANX market cap is below $100 million. Wrap your head around that if you will. If Gain is successful, it would imply a 3,000-fold return over 25 years (historical return from Vertex over the same time period x prevalence ratio of PD to cystic fibrosis). $10,000 (two ounces of gold bullion)--> $30,000,000. Sure the risks are high, dilution, logic means diddly-squat in today's market, but if logic means ANYTHING the risk/reward ratio is hugely attractive. In my humble opinion... but not a historically uniformed opinion. The difference now is I can afford to bet tens of thousands of dollars on this horse, and I have, accepting that I may lose it, and any significant capital appreciation likely only will be realized by my kids a couple decades from now. Would you hazard $10K on a couple ounces of gold for an inflation hedge (I have... on more than a couple ounces)? Are you interested in high risk/reward life science technology? If so, this is the place for you.
The directional thesis is right — US phosphate producers benefit from Hormuz disruption vs Gulf-dependent competitors. But this post inflates the case at every turn. The CF Industries "cheat code" is dead. That 725K ton/year Henry Hub-indexed ammonia contract was terminated effective Jan 1, 2025. CF exercised its contractual right to end it back in Oct 2022. Mosaic still has ammonia supply arrangements but it's not the locked-in sweetheart deal described here. Book value is wrong. BV/share is ~$38, not $24. The stock is trading at 0.65x book. That's not a "floor" — it means the market is already discounting these assets. The $400/ton "conservative" profit math is made up. Sulfur was $496/long ton and ammonia $625/mt as of Feb 2026. Mosaic's own management guided to a $250M EBITDA headwind in Q1 from sulfur alone. Stripping margins are at 5-year lows. You don't get $400/ton net margin in that environment. What's missing from this post: Mosaic is idling Brazilian operations (−1M tons/yr output). Q4 2025 was a $519M net loss. Net debt up $829M in 2025. CapEx is $1.5B this year. USDA is calling them a "duopoly." Farmer groups are lobbying to lift duties on Moroccan/Russian phosphate. And if Hormuz reopens — which could happen any week — the entire thesis evaporates. MOS dropped 5-11% on the ceasefire announcement alone. OCP cutting 30% of Q2 capacity is real. The $840/t DAP sale is real. But this reads like someone with a position dressing up a geopolitical coin flip as a sure thing.
Chatgpt says: The weakest part of the bullish writeup is the ammonia angle. Mosaic’s 2024 10 K says the old CF Ammonia Supply Agreement terminated on January 1, 2025. Also, fertilizer is brutally cyclical. Even if sulfur spikes, Mosaic doesn’t instantly print cash. You’re already seeing weak near-term phosphate EBITDA, which means the market isn’t dumb here.
I just keep looking at my portfolio and seeing the utter stupidity of people not realizing that we are going to go through a horrible global supply shortage. Bought shares of CF Industries few weeks ago but Mosaic looks extremely promising so I will definitely be buying when market opens tomorrow.
Class action against multiple companies...many mos contracts state farmers must individually sue...Mosaic Company, et al.: Filed in Colorado on March 13, 2026, this suit names Mosaic, Nutrien, CF Industries, Koch, Yara, and Canpotex as joint defendants Lawyers getting rich..farmers buying them new Lambos
Not hating, looking for genuine discourse cause this has come up for me too and have a small position and looking to add. Why do you think markets aren’t waking up to this yet when so many people are clearly aware of it - my Twitter is full of people banging the ag trade with names like MOS agro and CF being shared a lot. institutions with millions to billions at disposal to pay for research know these things and the second and third order effects of global crises like the one in Hormuz. Is it all because mos has such bad books and the market is waiting for absolute confirmation on this thesis to play out? I’m trying to understand why it hasn’t really caught a proper bid on this thesis being a clear possibility.
Thank you. It is all my own research. This arbitrage exists for other industries as well, specifically industries which feed off cheap US based feedstocks and produce things which the world desperately needs. LYB, CF Industries, ect.
Sulfur is not a global market. The sulfur Mosaic consumes in its Florida operations is Molten Sulfur which is currently quoted at half the price of seaborne sulfur. Their biggest competitor, OCP Group, has announced the shut-down of 30% of its production because they cannot get **any** sulfur. They also have fixed ammonium costs tied to their long term agreement with CF Industries, where the rest of the world is critically short of ammonium and paying large sums of money if they can even get a bid. I calculate Mosaics profit per ton to be at around $300 right now with a $850 per ton price.
Shoulda bought CF calls.. and or puts when the stock dropped
CF going red is just hairpulling frustrating. the ships aren’t moving!!
Given the presidential discharges via social media, It's going to be a red day for most. Green for most things that have done well since he joined Bibi's dumb war, but I expect a bad day for CF.
CF! Made me a good amount of $ recently.
CF and LXU, but they have all broken down already
CF every day now: 8:30am +3%, 9:30am +0.02%, 10:30am -3% so tiring
Aggressively bought OXY,SLB, BKR, HAL, VG, XOM, MOS, NTR and CF because when you’re down 25K, what else are you gonna do? I doubled down because taco doesn’t matter I have the 403 457 for rational investing https://preview.redd.it/dzn582t1j2ug1.jpeg?width=1320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9cd84f055b2fa227545d6350e7379b8d86f035de 2k going in tmrw
Oil: OXY, VG, SLB, BKR, XOM Fertilizer: NTR, CF, IPI, MOS
Im NOT familiar with BW…are you paying up for shares with voting rights? If so, I suggest to re-think wanting this. Your votes/shares will never matter. You seem tech heavy to me, so more diversity and NOT meme/high beta/high risk stocks stock/ETF. Heck, an index fund would be smart (but viewed as boring to some who want to get rich quick). With all that’s been blown up and it’ll take awhile to rebuild, look into companies like…CVI, LYB, CF…
I just mean until the CF fails and you can buy again at a discount.
This CF wont hold. If Trump allows them their 10 pt plan that should be the end of his presidency. It wont but it should. Iran will be stronger
It seems like this CF has lots of holes
look what they did to my CF 🥀
I'm not an experienced trader by any means, I don't read charts or involve myself with LAME BEHAVIOR, but instead I deeply involve myself in human psychology, incentive structures and history instead because I'm unironically autistic like the rest of you tards (except the ones of you who larp). Built a whole portfolio around the thesis that this war escalates while the rest of you keep buying peace dips like goldfish with 15 second memory. OXY up 26%. Bought before the war. Turns out watching troop buildups is pretty useful. CF Industries. The play nobody is talking about. 30% of global fertilizer goes through Hormuz. Strait closed. It's planting season. There's no strategic fertilizer reserve. That damage is done. Your grocery bill is going up into 2027 and no peace deal fixes it. Equinor. If Houthis close Bab al-Mandeb too then Europe loses both shipping routes and Norway becomes their entire energy supply. Already happening. Leonardo. Europe rearming. NATO 5% GDP. Germany dropping €500B. US munitions depleted. This doesn't reverse on a ceasefire. Gold. Because obviously. "MUUHHHH the peace deal!" Yeah. 749 insiders sold $19B in stock this month. Zero buys. Kept only oil. Someone dumped $580M in oil futures 15 minutes before Trump's last peace announcement. The TACO trade. Trump Always Chickens Out. But sure, this time the deal is real. Just like the last four deadlines were real. CNN says a deal is expected tonight and Trump said a deal was made WITH PAKISTAN(?!). The IRGC says all restraint has been removed and they'll deprive America of oil for years. I know which one I'm believing. Sources for it included here: [https://kenoma.substack.com/p/the-biggest-heist-in-history-is-happening](https://kenoma.substack.com/p/the-biggest-heist-in-history-is-happening)
Oxy, xle (etf), LNG, VG, ET.. Also, NTR, CF because I believe fertilizer stocks are setting up for their next leg up. If you haven’t yet, look at how much fertilizer, urea, etc comes out of the Middle East or is transported through that straight. Also, mfg byproducts in petrochemical plants like the one that was bombed again in the UAE
CF to 150 is all I ask for inshallag
$CF industry! Urea fertilizer! Iran just took out Saudi petrochemical plant! 12% of the worlds Ammonia that’s the input to Urea! Just my 2cents! Or buy puts on spy! This is about to go down 15% due to Iran!
Kinda funny all the posturing CF Vance did towards the EU for not ‘properly securing’ Greenland and we got the clown show trying to secure a 20 mile stretch of water.
3 way tie between Frontline, Golar, and CF industries stand out to me the most.
CF (CF Industries) COP (ConocoPhillips) DHT (DHT Holdings) FRO (Frontline Plc) GLNG (Golar LNG Ltd) INSW (International Seaways) LNG (Cheniere Energy) OXY (Occidental Petroleum) TNK (Teekay Tankers) VET (Vermilion Energy)
\> are you all buying into this crazy market? Fuck, NO! Do you have ANY concept of the cataclysm that's coming? A huge percentage of the world's ability to produce and ship fossil fuels, fertilizer and helium are GONE. If the war stopped this second it will take the world years to recover, with hunger, severe semi-conductor shortages, and MRI scanning less available. And EVERYTHING will be more expensive. And the world will not forget -- it is rapidly organizing in solidarity against the USA, and to cooperate with each other. And the war is more likely to get much worse before it stops. This is not a "dip" -- it is as big a change (no: bigger) as the fall of royalty after WWI, the fall of the British empire and end of the pound sterling as reserve currency after WWII. No one knows yet what the new world will look like, but it will look different. So what's safe? No clear answer to that. Select stocks may do well. One can guess: CF - a USA profitable producer of fertilizer, or maybe companies that produce helium or rare earths. Gold or silver, maybe. With CDs you at least get interest, but on the dollar who's decline in value (if that happens) may be greater, so the net effect after interest if you have LESS. Personally I'm stocking up on cans of beans.
I loaded up on NTR, IPI, CF, OXY, BP, SHEL, BPR, VG
MOS makes phosphate and potash, neither of which go through Hormuz. They also use ammonia and sulphur as one of their biggest inputs into DAP/MAP which are impacted by Hormuz closure / energy prices. So their costs are going up and while eventually phosphate prices have to increase to account for the global rise in input costs, it doesn’t really directly benefit MOS (unless we are talking about second order effects of higher corn / oil prices bc of biofuel demand). If you believe Hormuz will be closed for an extended period of time just buy CF which is a pure play domestic producer of nitrogen ferts.
MOS, NTR, CF gonna pump now
CF selling off like the strait is wide open and fertilizer is flowing through the streets…right right