Reddit Posts
Do SEC rules and U.S. securities laws apply to a Mexican company raising from U.S.-based investors?
These are the 5 stocks I’d buy today, and I’ve got my own money in them
In an irrationnal world, Charter communications (CHTR) might be the swing trade we don't deserve
In an irrationnal world, Charter communications (CHTR) might be the swing trade we don't deserve
MOO ETF looks like the best setup for the next 30-90 days with this war and feed prices climbing
$MOS: The "Hormuz Arbitrage" Nobody is Talking About. Why the Market is Wrong about the Sulfur Crisis.
Fertilizer trade - still early? $MOS $CF
$NOMA - UP almost 12% @$4.61 on 87k volume, HOD @$4.88. Amazing day so far, Power Hour could bring $5. Developed in collaboration with Cádiz CF, Our XI provides a practical, real-world perspective on how professional clubs operate behind the scenes.
If Hormuz stays disrupted, fertilizer might be the sleeper trade
$NOMA - Quiet day today... Developed in collaboration with Cádiz CF, Our XI provides a practical, real-world perspective on how professional clubs operate behind the scenes, covering key areas.
$CF yolo in the roth IRA. No nat gas fertilizers will be coming from the middle east this whole growing season
$CF 100k++ gainz in one day, thank you Value Investors for the fertilizers heads up
12 MARCH 2026 STOCK MOVES . IF YOU ARE CONFUSED , HERE IS WHAT IS PUSHING SMALL CAP COMPANIES
Not just oil....but also fertiliser...one third passes through the Hormuz.
HOVR (Horizon Aircraft) - IMO the most asymetric bet
On the Verge of a Major Announcement… All Signals Point to a Potential Breakout
EON Resources ($EONR) DD: Totally underpriced and insiders buying
EON Resources ($EONR) DD: Totally underpriced and insiders buying
How to distinguish between "Cash On Hand" and "Marketable Securities" from a company's financials?
Before I invest… thoughts on Yarnhub’s Reg CF raise?
Context is king: Ranking stocks against their peers
Why Costco Scores Higher Than Apple in Quality (Surprised?)
Systematic stock selection with a multi-layered quality scoring model
A coworking startup for doctors is raising through equity crowdfunding
PHGE is pumping up. at 0.53 now but will be up .06-.08 by the end of the day
$PHGE - BiomX’s “Bacteria-Eating Virus” Therapy Shows 500-Fold Reduction in Deadly CF Infections: Company Announces Major Scientific Validation in Key Publication | Newsblaze (NYSE: PHGE)
VRTX is quietly developing VX-548, a non-addictive pain killer that's showing promise, and going to moon soon. Tell me why I'm wrong.
TACO’s ‘Beautiful’ Bill Casts a Cloud Over Hydrogen’s Future
Immersed SEC Filings Show Different Cash Totals — Form C/A Lists $1.59M, But C-AR Says $242K. Honest mistake or red flag?
Oxy is the most undervalued company based on FCF yield on EV in the market right now.
BlackRock Has Quietly Opened The Door To A ‘Trillion-Dollar Plus’ Wall Street Game-Changer Amid The $700 Billion Crypto Price Boom
Vertex (VRTX) reports positive results for its non-opioid pain killer
Wouldn't it be a good idea to make Philip Morris colapse ?
Comparisson of 3 Big Car Manufacturers (F, TM, VW)
My Pitch for CF (NYSE:CF) Going to $85
CME Group and CF Benchmarks Launch BTC and ETH Reference Rates
Planning for CF's Earnings Report: A Tactical Approach
How can I access the private markets as an un-accredited investor?
Understanding How to Perform Research on Stocks is a big hurdle for new investors.
Shopify Inc. ($SHOP) is attracting investor attention: Here is what you should know.
Pre-market Movers:$SILO, $OLB,$MIGI, $FWBI
Soccer: Lionel Messi to join Inter Miami CF in massive win for MLS and significant blow to Saudi Arabia’s global sports ambitions
Regulation CF with Cytonics Corp? They're beginning human trials soon and awaiting FDA approval
TikTok - Free £15 Amazon Voucher. (Extended until 9th March)
Simple and practical! How to use the relative valuation method to value stocks
Richest Canada Lithium Brine Deposit ever found today: $EMPPF has 75%, ROK ($PTRDF) has 25% but ROK already a 1 PE stock from oil profits. They hit Lithium while trying to find oil.
$ICL Is the only company in the fertilizer market who keeps beating earnings and is growing! Compared to its peers $MOS $CF $IPI
Here's a fun read about the Adani fiasco and all his loans. With Credit Suisse, Barclays and the State Bank of India as guest characters.
Here's a fun read about the Adani fiasco and all his loans. With Credit Suisse, Barclays and the State Bank of India as guest characters.
$ICL Is the only company in the fertilizer market who keeps beating earnings and is growing! Compared to its peers $MOS $CF $IPI
$ICL Is the only company in the fertilizer market who keeps beating earnings and is growing! Compared to its peers $MOS $CF $IPI
Raymond James initiates Brighthouse at Market Perform based on P/CF valuation
Penny Stocks To Buy Now? 5 To Watch After News This Week
Santander post an 18% jump in profit to a record 9.6 billion euros in 2022, offsetting higher provisions set aside against uncertain economic conditions.
Imugene Ltd. [OTC: IUGNF], [ASX: IMU] - Well funded, developing a range of new treatments that activate cancer patients' own immune system to identify and eradicate tumors.
Is the bottom in? or is the next "top" in? ..... 12-2-22 SPY Weekly Market Recap and Analysis
APRN Bull on this stock. They’re going full green new deal. With this and all the stay home save lives Covid cult I’m predicting a double combo new subscription wave. Leading to boosting that revenue. LFG! Bears bout to be rushing to the exit and my bags will be rescued!🚀
Boys I found our way out of the matrix
Boys, I found our way out of the Matrix.
Boys I found a way out of the matrix.
$NTR, $CF, $MOS - AG Fertilizer Bull Market 2007/8 vs 2022
Mentions
CF is the play for me today. Has been benefitting from the hormuz closure greatly, but slipped 5% last week. Therefore has room to bounce back up on the fresh war escalation/continuation news. Also, the VLO chart is fucking insane.
CF close to ATH but I do believe in it kinda
Now that CF and NFL are back all the guys with diesel pickup trucks don’t give a shit
I'm seriously looking at the CF Moto Ibex 800 motorcycle for next spring. My concern is Chinese build quality. I read it's been improving, so I'm open to a Chinese car as well.
I dont what is better watching CF or all the reels of cheerleaders and sorority sisters
I say it is one of the popular blog sites. To claim it is undervalued is like promise very early top supporters Rdrt founder stock and nothing happened after ipo. To test the market I bought some with own money. I came out 3X green at right time. I sold all because I believe I can not predict the price anymore like before. To be fair I think the trading price is fair not low. It is not a peer reviewed site. AI now seems to quote more. Being not peer reviewed most top bloggers give their opinion than truth. When I search for a question I was surprised AI directly quoted things I wrote. To claim these quotes are gosper is pushing the claim. This is not isolated case more than 2X my speculation gets picked up. Below is a few of its financial ratios. As for advertisements I see many get downvoted why? Not approve ads? |Price/Cash Flow (P/CF) More Info|54.03||||| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |[P/E (F1)](https://www.zacks.com/stock/chart/RDDT/fundamental/pe-ratio-ttm) More Info|[29.30](https://www.zacks.com/stock/chart/RDDT/fundamental/pe-ratio-ttm)||
i think its a bit late for CF already up a lot these past few days
Today I think the best short is NET and the best buy is CF or KTOS.
VRTX (healthcare) is doing well, and I expect it to continue to do well, although some of it is priced in. They are a mature, profitable company ($110b\~ marketcap), priced at $545\~ per share, with a forward P/E of 28 or so. The stock has behaved to be quite resilient in 2026 as from memory, it hasn't been correlated with AI stocks, nor SAAS stock price actions. If you search older threads on VRTX, circa 2022, the very basic thesis I had then is playing out. Basically VRTX has a monopoly over the Cystic Fibrosis (CF) market. Generic drugs may become a risk, but not until 2037 iirc. From when I started holding this stock, 2021, the thesis has been that they had 15 years to invent a new drug with a large addressable market, and so far the thesis is playing out well. Journavx (non opiod pain relief), and Casgevy - gene therapy have been decent money makers and are marker of the thesis playing out. However, it is still somewhat risky that most of their product revenue still comes from their CF drugs. The near term catalyst is in November 30th. A drug called Povetacicept showed promising phase 3 results and is designated as a breakthrough therapy. A decision will be made on the 30th, if which approved, will bolster VRTX's drug portfolio. However, I'm not sure I'd buy at the price it is now. My cost basis is $205 with 27.x shares. YMMV.
Somebody posted their CF holdings screenshot about a month ago. I think the high was like $102 at that time. AI is drawing everyone's attention I guess.
3/4 length plate on the fury, more or less same coverage as the Alphafly. Albeit 30 years prior. Nothing was invented on the super shoe, just a combination of new incremental improvements on foam, airbags, and CF. All of the big 3 were constantly elevating and experimenting with foams in that time period so no industry-defining breakthrough there either really unless you're really deep in the kool-aid. I've been out of the industry for 5-6 years, but, in my opinion, when you're in the game it's pretty easy to have tunnel vision on one's brands innovation as top-tier and scoff at the rest of the playing field, but sneakers have and probably always been a marketing game more than a game of the absolute best material and engineering solutions. Obviously Nike, Adidas, and Reebok are all a long ways away from the highs of the 2010's in both games...
CF is a cleaner expression of this play. Both have already pumped in the last 7 days. It is tempting if you think Hormuz disruption will continue indefinitely, but will be very sensitive to any headlines or news about progress toward peace/open strait. Risky.
Sure fair. But they've had capital discipline too. GOOG has spent \~5% of operating CF and FCF as "other bets" pretty consistently. At the peak of reality labs, META spent \~25-30% of OCF and 70% of FCF .. on nothing.
NTR, CF, MOS mooning the last couple days
Okay. Well I’m in it for the long haul and I wouldn’t recommend RKLB for short term holds so we will see. I’m already quite close to be able to retire early because of this stock so I really don’t care about your opinion. The largest risk with this stock depends on how well Neutron’s CF hull will hold up for reuse. I only look at engineering fundamentals and the overall future trends for space flight when I invest
CF : oh.. this is happening
By the same token, election spend should be off the chain. I think Meta has a few more quarters of eye-popping earnings and CF. Thinking of picking up some way out of the money calls a quarter or two out. If they crash and burn I get some of that back until expiry, if they moon then the lottery tickets pay off.
Not sure exactly what you are looking for (scalping etc) but check out, "CF", "EAT", "AJD" and "OSCR". I'm surprised at how consistent these stocks go up. They aren't anywhere near as sexy as SEMIs, but they have done me well.
Isn’t that more like the dotcom bubble than the housing bubble? Pets.com wasn’t even profitable but had a super high valuation which crashed because they weren’t producing any value. The housing bubble was related to assets with valid underlying collateral and CF potential mucked up by the layers and layers of regulatory arbitrage, inaccurate grading, bad fundamental assumptions, nonexistent underwriting, improperly valued tranche structures, etc.
They allowed all oil ships lmao, just check traffic... Short oil free $. On the other hand, chemicals and cargo ships are mostly blocked.. Long in CF stock
I loved Ken Griffin Jr. when he played CF for the Mariners.
Check out CF holdings..urea producers will be popular in a month Source: trust me
I’d also like to emphasize that the average person with PD has a shit ton more disposable income and voting power than some kiddo with CF
Revenue miss and CF disappointing and no raise in guidance. Oh and the investor relations call was garbage oh and leadership doesn’t know what they are doing. So it’ll go down to 50 maybe then it might be interesting to buy
That is the nature of all Reg A/A+/CF offerings and private shares.
This stock was $50 2 years ago. Still has a lot of debt and the unfinished fabs require $30 Billion of capex which will totally drain operating CF. If MSFT announces that they are capping capex expenditure growth it will fall 50%. Other hyper scalers will follow MSFT lead .
Once a hyperscaler announces they gonna cut spending because they cant sustain the CF then youre done in no time being invested in these stocks. Its the music chair game and you playing against hedge funds and other massive investors that are 10x faster than you.
Couldn't happen till October or November at the earliest. Just look at the [wet bulb temps](https://zoom.earth/maps/temperature-wet-bulb/#view=25.5199,55.9145,7z/model=icon/date=2026-06-27,05:00,-5). Bandar Abbas is presently 35 C dry bulb, 30 wet bulb. Soldiers moving in combat gear would get heatstroke within a couple hours June-September, regardless of hydration status. Poses same difficulties for an active defense, but defense can stay in caves. Compare to Baghdad, presently 43 dry bulb but a tolerable 22 wet bulb. Moreover, look at the current US ground force structure (smaller than in 1991 or 2003), munitions status (drained both by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Bibi's war), and alliance network. Turkey denied US use of bases and airspace since the outset, Saudi Arabia and Qatar denied these when Abqaiq and Ras Laffan were struck, and Iraq and Oman are friendly with the Iranians. Bibi was already stuck in two wars of his own making before starting a third, so won't provide support. Its just UAE and Kuwait on the US side, this time, and their militaries are mainly for internal security. Still, I wouldn't put it past this POTUS and SecDef, who have been purging anyone willing to object to bad ideas from the brass. It may be worthwhile to hold oily E&Ps (I like EGY & AMPY here), nitrogenous fertilizers (CF), and aluminum (KALU & CSTM). The commodity ETFs (USO, BNO, UCO) will get a boost especially when backwardation returns to the curve, roll yields have meant all are up 42% YTD. BNO may be of particular interest, as POTUS is permitted by law to curtail or halt US exports.
Which stocks offer a better risk to reward though? Semis are nearly at an ATH but the reason they are making so much is because hyperscaler's are spending so much. Their CF allows them to make such big commitment to spending and it's clear that they are doing this due to demand. Companies have already requested for future compute and not just requested but handed over the $$ to secure them. You say park money but in reality I'm doing is taking profits from my investments in AMD and DRAM accumulating MSFT at it's cheapest.
CF Industries is going to be the best stock for retail investors , ideal for short squeez.
basically, not all growth is equal. Growth at a low capital cost is much more valuable. in this world view, companies fundamentally need moeny to achieve a growth. The investment in turn delays capital distribution and is fundamentally costly in a dcf world. consider an example, where an investment yields 4% but your cost of capital is 5%, and you invest 100 dollar into the project, you get 104 dollar next year, but since CoC is 5%, the value of cf 1 year later is 104/1.05 to today you, or less than had you done nothing at all. By the same logic, if the company have lots of investment opportunity and thus growth, but the investment barely makes money, less than CoC/WACC, the growth opportunity would actually be a moeny incinerator. There are thus formulas that derives from a set of assumption, from Discounted CF model, that integrate growth rate and ROIC (roughly the investment return rate) to value of company, that any competent AI Model can tell you
Startengine has a negative selection bias. It's the bottom barrel exchange for startups (the same applies to any portal using Reg CF etc.) This company is using low information investors to fund their salaries.
They are not. CF: Iran's press statement on Twitter, "We aren't signing shit"
Matador is a good choice. I prefer to just do FANG, EOG, and DVN. Your choice of Mosaic is questionable for the fertilizer play. Mosaic needs phosphates to create its fertilizer which is hurt heavily by the Strait of Hormuz being closed. You should take advantage of CF who creates fertilizer using North American natural gas so it’s insulated from the conflict in the Middle East. Another option is NTR who has large potash reserves in North America. You have to be more careful with inputs vs outputs and upstream vs downstream when you look at commodities. Also why do margin. Just do calls with long expiration dates. Don’t get liquidated by a tweet.
You shouldn’t be thinking in terms of what will happen. You should be thinking in scenarios and how your portfolio responds to each scenario. Think in terms of sectors. For example, yes there will be shortages of crude due to drawdown of inventories, but the shortages will affect different sectors of the economy in different parts of the world in different ways due to global logistics. Think about what your biotech portfolio needs to do well. For my portfolio, I have specifically focused on the Permian basin and LNG as a response to this crisis. But I acknowledge different outcomes of the war to figure out how much to be in cash versus invest. I always ask the question “if Hormuz opens today what happens” and I weigh that risk against other realistic scenarios to find a range. I also use options defensively. You can have calls on S&P to protect your investment in the case a tweet or news story by Barrak Ravid tanks the oil markets. But if you have conviction, I would do longer term calls on some Permian Basin basin oil stocks, longer term calls on fertilizer like CF and longer term puts on SPY all expiring in Jan 2027 or later.
Yeah im in wheat futures and domestic fertilizer production Leaps. CF ect. I also bought a bunch of FLNC calls two weeks ago and thats looking like a smart move. Might play into your main thesis
DCF is also completely baseless when you have no model for what the CF is going to look like. You can do a decent DCF on a new restaurant chain because you know what growth looks like for those companies. Any future cash flow you use for Anthropic is 100% speculative.
I like CF, but so does everyone else and I'm worried about the price elasticity from farmers, they're already financially struggling after years of rising costs and low crop prices. CF will no doubt keep raising prices but I'm not confident farmers will keep buying.
Well reasoned rationale! I like CHRD as well. Did you consider CF for fertilizer exposure?
I share your thesis, although I am diversified into other sectors as well. But definitely overweight natural resources. CF is my fertilizer play, but I,might pickup aome MOS as well. I bought a bunch of RIG when it dipped under $3, which is basically the same as ownong VAL now with the oending merger. Still think it's undervalued, especially if our shared thesis is true. I also went with EXE to get some natural gas exposure. Still interested in picking up a lot more in these sectors and if they tank on news of thr Strait of Hormiz opening I will be going on a buying spree.
CF calls. Crops are failing and CF is poised to increase its market share against its competition that relies on Strait of Hormuz.
Do you actually have any experience with investing in private small businesses? If not - it's usually not the kind of businesses that inexperienced investors should be dabbling in - unless it's just throw-away speculative gambles. You really need to understand how to read and understand the offering circular of whatever you plan to invest into. Just to clarify - LaunchVector is not really a scam. But their marketing and their business practice sounds a bit on the dubious side. They are basically just another small business broker who operate in a weird niche. They fall into a Reg CF/A+ world of investing where they are largely unregulated and investors do not have to necessarily be accredited. The odd part of their business model is that they seem to focus on very small ecommerce business. Small business brokers and low-tier investment banking who help raise capital for businesss are a legit business. But you really have to know and trust the business that you are investing into. Would you have access to the business operators? Do you get access to their books? What percentage of the business is owned by you? Or are you in a fund or pool of 100's of other investors with no access to the business? So - think of it this way - if a business is doing well or has a good business idea - the founders would raise capital either through personal loans, venture loans, or angel capital/private VC. Ask yourself - why would a business go through a small business broker to sell equity to an investor that can't help them grow their business other than for the capital? If you decide to invest - how is the fund or business valuation done? Are you sure you believe the valuation? Are the revenue and expenses audited? If not - can you trust the numbers? What's the exit strategy? Is it a equity or debt deal? These are just some of the basic questions that you have to understand.
OXY's the contrarian energy play. fertilizer's the cleaner version of the same thesis. $MOS $CF $NTR have feedstock exposure and the workarounds (reformulations, red sea trucking) are happening regardless of oil. disruption hits fertilizer fundamentals before OXY's earnings.
That is a very stretched connection. I am no expert here,but quantum needs a significantly more complicated than photonics. Photonics infra components, laser, wafer are here before AI. They are now repositioning for AI Infra. Lumentum, Coherent, AEHR have order book for photonics. There are some small ones in the supply chain. What I see is Nvidia won’t sit quietly with that much CF. They will push some of these innovation in photonics and similar infra models for faster and low energy concepts.
🥸 ”Yeah b-b-but this semiconductor company has no positive CF and EV/Sales of 586x”🥸 The economists can talk all they want but this is THE GREATEST BULL MARKET and MAGNACHIP SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION WILL MOON
| Company | Revenue | CapEx | Operating CF | FCF | FCF Margin | |---------|---------|-------|--------------|-----|------------| | **Apple** | $385B | $11B | $110B | $99B | **26%** | | **Microsoft** | $245B | $44B | $118B | $74B | **30%** | | **Alphabet** | $340B | $32B | $101B | $69B | **20%** | | **Meta** | $135B | $28B | $71B | $43B | **32%** | | **Amazon** | $575B | $52B | $84B | $32B | **6%** | | **Tesla** | $97B | $9B | $13B | $4B | **4%** | | **SpaceX** | **$18.8B** | **$40.4B** | **$(2.6B)** | **$(43B)** | **-229%** |
I bought Chevron and CF (fertilizers). Equinor is also something to check
CF killing it. Im buying 12/26-mid 2027 calls.
Maybe it was the oversized bets on negative CF companies with 500% YTD we made along the way
Yeah im familiar with the various s&p plays, after hanging around this sub for years and seeing everyones options ripping im ready to increase my degeneracy. Im thinking about long calls of spy into jan/ feb 27, as well as long calls of CF industries (CF) into march 27. But i have no idea how sound this strategy might be
So are my CF calls going to be green or is taco opening the strait before market opens tomorrow?
Why no NTR, CF, OXY, ET, VG ?
NBIS put, MSTR put, CF call, USO call
Mosaic is a dogshit ass company. Better off with CF for exposure
Anyone else riding CF up? Hormuz doesn't seem to be opening very soon.
SAP at new 52 week low. Given their sticky product and high CF, might be a good entry
Again, I am just focusing on your assertion that Burry values things based on CF. I think you just agreed that at least in NVDA case, his thesis for 2027 is in fact absurd. $300B FCF for 26+27 is actually the lowest projection. Re: comparison to dot coms....there were a shitload of dark fibers for years due to the over-investment. Meantime, currently, companies continue to use up all the available tokens, and we haven't evern really started on physical AI yet. The comparison between the two eras is IMHO not analogous at all.
NVDA with $150B+ FCF and growing double digits, so he would short them because he values things on CF?
why is $CF pumping last 30 minutes?
LOVED CORN and CF last week with gas oil fertalizer situation and farmers switching to grow soy over corn Iran will never ever back down so this is really going to moon. Love TSLA bought calls two weeks ago and close some today and let some ride
Damn CF is taking off. Sold my position on Friday because I thought I was way too early.
big CORN and CF and POET and TSLA bull LFG!!!
Too many chicken sandwiches out there already (CF, Popeyes, even Arby’s has a great chicken sandwich)
CF calls should be so obvious. Still pretty good probably.
Not good not terrible, the core thesis remains, farmers can only postpone phosphate and potash for so long, everyone is hyped on CF and peers due to spikes in nitrogen and right on but you can't maintain yields with nitrogen alone, you need the trifecta, Mosaic may not have been able to pass on costs in this quarter but eventually they will. In the end, the farmers will have to absorb the cost and then we'll see how much of that can be past on to consumers.
CF NTR IPI seem to all be better fertilizer plays than MOS after the Earnings Reports. MOS might have some structural problems; they’re getting it on both the input costs side while not being reaping sufficiently from the higher prices for output.
MOS is the worst for fertilizer plays. If you are gonna bet on old world stuff you actually need a brain. In particular your chemistry knowledge is lacking. The key idea is looking at what their inputs are. MOS sulfate business is affected by sulfur shortages. NTR is the better play because of their huge potash reserves. CF is also a better play because it uses North American natural gas to make fertilizer which is dirt cheap. The earnings and fundamentals for both CF and NTR are so much better than MOS as evinced by the latest earnings. But I think energy is a good play this summer, but you will probably see a wave in the old sectors. Oil stuff goes up in the summer, then fertilizer goes parabolic during the fall planting, then food staples get affected by supply shock so staples go up in early 2027. If you want to be a degenerate just do S&P puts with a strike price of 600 and an expiration of March 2027. BTW, anyone saying that this falls apart based on Hormuz opening, that’s BS. We already flew off the cliff. Be ready for the west coast of the US to have oil shortages in mid June, and the rest of the country by mid July.
This is relevant: > NEW YORK, Feb. 18, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- GD Culture Group Limited (“GDC” or the “Company”) (Nasdaq: GDC) today announced that its board of directors has authorized a share repurchase program under which the Company may repurchase up to US$100 million worth of its shares within the next 6 months ending on August 17, 2026, subject to market conditions. Under the share repurchase program, the Company may periodically repurchase its common stock through open market or privately negotiated transactions thereof in compliance with applicable securities laws and the Company’s insider trading policy. The number of common stocks to be repurchased and the timing of repurchases will be determined by management at its discretion and will depend on a number of factors, including, but not limited to, bitcoin price based on the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate - New York Variant, price, trading volume and general market conditions of the shares, along with the Company’s working capital requirements and general business conditions and applicable legal requirements. The Company’s board of directors will review the share repurchase program periodically, and may authorize adjustments to its terms and/or size.
They’re not quite at the level of “no-nines” like GitHub, but for a cloud provider they’re entirely unreliable. You have to build around unreliability for CF. You do the same in other providers, but for those you’re building for the exception, not the rule.
If anyone wants to get in on a long play assuming global fertilizer supply will be fucked because of Hormuz for the next year, CF is a good buy and on the cheap today.
My chemical company is currently planning for limited supply of sulfuric acid domestically. Looks like domestic manufacturers like CF or MOS might do well?
\> there is REALLY expected to be a shortage later this year and next And presumably that's worldwide, with the worst shortages outside of the USA, at least for fertilizer who's production is dependent on natural gas as the feedstock. Do you foresee the companies you mention (UAN, CF, NTR) as profiting by exporting? They may incur higher natural gas prices (like everyone else) but they should have all the supply they need (and others may not). And what do you think of this: ammonia is increasingly looking favorable long term as a transportatio fuel -- particular in global shipping. Do you anticipate UAN, CF and NTR will benefit from that. Ammonia is less dense as a fuel than petroleum-derived ones, but (NH3 - no carbon!) burns cleaner (NO2 is a problem).
Sure. I have significant AI exposure and decided to balance out of SP500 to the below for about 50%+. Retirement days are knocking First is BRK and Brookfield. Imo, they are better capital allocators than me. Thats it and the thesis here. The 2nd is under what is termed HALO strategy - Hard Assets Low Obsolescence. Without going too much into it, my gut feeling is that this should be direction until 2030 or so until the AI winner/loser gets shaken out. Likely low beta, mature tech industries, even if they modernize their ops XOM is my first reach here. I chose this instead of XLE because of potential alpha compared to that. I think that with the Pioneer buy XOM will work out well irrespective how and when the Iran stupidity works out. XOM is clearly well run and professionally managed to ride all these cycles. Next one is a major global mining company - I am looking for strength in management, geographical footprint, scale (very important), excellent relationship with the governments they operate in. Note I am not picking the metal/mineral itself as these will be global multi mining ops. Maybe Glencore The next one is Ag - I decided to go with fertilizers. CF Industries, Nutrien, Mosaic. Boring volatility. I have not chosen any petrochemicals/chemicals yet. I worked in capital markets and decided to pick Moodys and S&P Global. They have a regulated moat that is difficult to replicate. This private credit/equity will/may bite, but ok for me. This is not Hard Asset but an essential one in global credit markets. There is AI threat which is somewhat addressed by being entrenched incumbents. I decided against exchanges, and felt this was smaller pond/big fish choice. Royalty streams for Gold/Silver Railways - likely Canadian National. Trump has triggered Canada to look elsewhere for trade, and railways is the necessary trade infrastructure for this trade growth. At least thats my thesis. The last is my tech bet and speculation - solid state battery tech. Toyota (yesss), QuantumScope(?), SolidPower(?). Bought Toyota and will do a bit more research. The window really kicks in later in '28 or later, but can be patient btw - thanks for asking as I had to spell it out. Happy to hear your comments - my thesis above does not reflect any fundamental valuations, charts, etc. Just the risk exposures I want in my portfolio
Traded it a bit in the early days of the war.y.obly exposure now is potash royalties own by altius minerals. CF is a huge beneficiary of the war because their urea based fertilizer. This is what was disrupted. NTR does mostly potash and is a decent trading proxy, but is not as big a beneficiary. MOS has some other problems they're working through. IPI is an interesting small cap name trading at book value and probably offers the highest torque up if potash takes off. My two cents. The war already sent urea prices into the stratosphere. Not sure how much overlap there is for farmers to use potash, but the potash supply hasn't been disrupted.
Yeah, I'm holding CF and currently up about 10% so far. MOS has been getting beaten up bad recently, not sure why exactly
I wish you luck as I tried that exact same trade earlier late 2025-early 2026. I gave up & dumped $MOS for nearly a $10k loss in mid March and added that cash to my $VXUS dip buys. The trade should work. It worked extremely well for $CF and $NTR. I was prolly too impatient.
I don't think they are comparable, Dow doesn't really make fertilizers. CF and Mosaic are definitely benefiting from elevated fertilizer price, expect their margin to go up in Q2 at least
No fertilizer, that will be Mosaic or CF industries. Dow is more on specialty chemicals, lots of plastics and foams
All my stocks are missing on this pink sheet. OXY, DVN, CF
The issue right now is 1) GPU is still inflated through some metric of financial engineering at over $6000 per vehicle sold (CarMax and other competitiors sit at around $2000) 2) SEC is still subpoenaing their accounting department 3) Operating CF decrease due to their recent increase in inventory, they are going to have to bank on the consumer not being weak in the next couple quarters or else it will reflect badly in future earnings 4) and did I say the SEC is literally investigating them for accounting fraud
CEO also has history of buying Instagram for 1b and turning it out to be what it is nowadays. Still remember when people called him crazy. Innovation ain't free. Some ideas work, some don't. Meta still has cards to play which people ain't taking into account right now because they're only pumping ads. Once they start monetizing personal agent figures and more of their glasses, we'll see a shift in mindset in regards to that ideology of "CEO's history of wasting CF on poor ideas"
Lol, is that just because it's one letter away from CF?
Also if you think fertilizer won't get price controlled CF is a pretty good deal
I bought calls on CF today. Huge into Urea dude.....huge
best trade I ever made was buying a Lexar 512 gb CF express type b for 400 when it's 800 now
Fertilizer IS the place to be with the SOH down. I looked at Yara this week and it is too thinly traded for me (maybe you live outside the US). I’m long UAN (ER Wed) and CF (ER May 6th).
Iran does things on the London exchange, CF: oil shorts placed just before the tweet where they agreed to open Hormuz. And then the longs when they tweeted that "open" still meant paying the transit fee. Trump and his crew do their thing on NYSE and Comex.
Nana should have hold, still those earnings look very regarded starting with the first line in CF statement
Also fertilizer stocks like IPI, CF, UAN or Agriculture ETF DBA. All increasing due to Iran war supply disruptions. You can be successful in any market if you're willing to pivot. Good luck
I didn't even mention CF... keep on keeping regard
Hey, Berkshire is in cash! **Panic is underrated.** We're living in a surreal moment, when the damage already done from the Iran war will CERTAINLY lead to economic hardship worldwide. You know the litany (shortages of fuel, fertilizer, sulfur and helium for semiconductors) will lead to inflation, airline failures, reduced travel, unemployment, and -- most enduring of all -- huge resentment about the United States causing the mess. The problem, investment wise, is no one knows for sure what to do about it. Go to cash? But the dollar may crash. Go to gold? But governments and people strapped for cash are selling. No one knows what will go up, let alone what will just hold value (apart from a prepper's closet full of cans of beans). **The only sure thing is this is a big moment -- bigger than COVID, and more profound long term than 2008.** And war and economic chaos leads to political chaos.... For what it's worth (and I just make the case it's not worth much) I'm in cash, and a few bucks on gold, silver, foreign (non-US) treasuries, and a few flyers on stocks that might do well (CF a fertilizer company, CALM a company that sells boring ol' eggs, and some biotech longshots). I think TLSA may find get its long overdue comeuppance, and AI (a real thing, but more hyped and over-invested than the bubble of 2000) may crash too. Buckle up. You instincts these are momentous times are 100% correct.