CF

ilovemathematikz

CF 🚀

theycallmej3sus

fertilizer futes may go up since gas goes CF might fill in the gap for gulf production loss but you can never be too sure keep an eye out

Pereise1

Tried using claude and got this: > Airlines & Shipping (inverse exposure) > Delta, United, FedEx, and shipping companies like Maersk have fuel as 20–30% of operating costs. Oil is a margin killer for them — rising prices crush margins, falling prices expand them significantly. > Petrochemicals > LyondellBasell, Dow, and BASF use oil-derived feedstocks (naphtha, ethylene). Their margins compress when oil spikes and feedstock costs outpace product pricing. > Agricultural inputs > Fertilizer companies like CF Industries and Mosaic are heavily exposed — natural gas (closely tied to oil markets) is the primary input for nitrogen fertilizers.

Affectionate-Day2743

yea, i didn't mean *everything* everything. calls on oil and CF Industries ($CF)

creemeeseason

I bought calls on CF and NTR. CF makes ammonia fertilizer and that's the most impacted type. The price action reflects this. I bought NTR because there is no price action yet. I went with very small amounts of calls because either I'm right, the straight stats closed and they moon; or I'm wrong and don't lose much. CF and UAN are the two biggest direct beneficiaries. MOS less, but would be fine if all prices go up. IPI is a nice small cap.

Fragrant_Invite5947

Stop talking about how Sterile someone is with CF CNBC tell me if it’s red or green today

Maximum-Side-9391

Starting building position in T and CF very low beta and have upside

zbern

CF Industries? I'm really wanting to start a position long term for them, but want a better entry point. I wish I would have found them sooner.

creemeeseason

Bought some April calls for CF. They're huge beneficiaries if middle east natural gas gets expensive.

zbern

Added USLM a few weeks ago, it's on a tear today. Was also looking at CF but waiting for a pullback hopefully.

dylcollett

CF easy money

Crazy-Cook2035

It’s wild the world we live in. Where we have this false reality that safe stocks are now risky. I mean Gates Makes $165 billion A YEAR off CN rail alone in dividends Like that CF alone can fund a vast majority of his living expenses from jets to yachts

GozenGreg79

This isn't the 80/20 rule, this is comparing apples to golf balls. The tool that Anthropic announced today, is not even in the same ball park in terms of what it does and what these companies do. If Anthropic announced an agent that they 100% guaranteed would not break shit if you handed it root access on every single machine in your cooperate infrastructure, and how the power to unilaterally run automated updates or kill processes it thought were malicious THAT would compete with what CrowdStrike does. If they announced a traffic filter you could tap directly into your network ingress, that stopped 99% of all malicious traffic, that would be closer to what CF does. What they announced to day should make companies like SonarQube today, the market selling off on this news is because they market saw "Security" in this announcement and "Security" in the companies descriptions. But your comment here does prove these

ReasonableChip0880

You're looking at this from the retail perspective. Charging daily users is not where these AI companies are going to be generating the bulk of their revenues. Its the services the corporations will be paying for. They are always starting to generate CF from them. The question really is when are the corporations going to be ok with middle of the line, i.e. deepseek, Ai models.

drew-gen-x

I like to have a 10% hedge in my port with commodity names. Now they are very volatile so don't go all in. $DOW and $PPG bottomed quite awhile ago although I see both are selling off today. I understand the agriculture names like $CF much better since I grew up on a farm during the days Kurt Cobain was blasting our ears on the radio.

drew-gen-x

I just added $NTR to my port. Nutrien missed on EPS but beat on revenue due to a 37% increase in potash sales YOY, +11% nitrogen YOY, and +17% Phosphate YOY. It might take a couple days for the market to digest these numbers as the company did miss estimates, but I am betting the commodity supercycle is here. $DE and $CF have skyrocketed this morning. I don't want to buy tech stocks in this market cycle, I want to buy physical tangible assets that have demand worldwide that AI can't duplicate or replace.

drew-gen-x

$CF Industries EPS $2.59 beat est $2.50 Revenue $1.87B beat est $1.79B For the year, the company reported profit of $1.46 billion, or $8.97 per share. Revenue was reported as $7.08 billion. The fertilizer company stock is up 7% this morning and has set a new 52 wk high.

RecursivelyYours

I do this on my tool exactly with different scenarios for risk appetite too, but you always have to bear in mind that a company is not only its cash flows. For example, a company heavily investing in capital expenditures will display a very low valuation that can be misleading. I do capture that as a capital intensity metric(Capex-to-Revenue ratio and Capex-to-Operating-CF ratio). So DCF really punishes heavy capex companies when they could be doing really great. Also, it's worth noting that you will see a ton of variety. Many dcf models use WACC for example, which is not a great method for returns for the retail investor. So they default to something like 8% or 9% when a retail investor, who doesn't really care about the company as an acquisition target, but as an entity to extract cash from, would probably require something like 12% or 13%, firmly above the 10% that a less risky index fund produces annual for the past 100 years.

BreadCoLLC

its not about beating estimates, its about the capex and CF needed to support such capex. if CF from Ops cant do it, then they need to finance it. And banks arent feeling super keen about their trillions in exposure that just keeps growing where ROI isnt materializing quickly enough. Meta did well because FCF was up. MSFT got punished b/c too much capex (same with GOOG really). So the question is, will AMZN project heavy capex that outpaces the Wall Street models?

PENNST8alum

In your reverse DCF, how many years do you have actual cashflow projections for vs how much is just "terminal growth"? If analysts are using lets say 10 years of CF projections + terminal CF, but you're only using, say, 5 years + terminal CF, you're going to get a very different figure

jibboo2

Here you go https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/funds/RPD220.CF/pressreleases/37116581/broadening-strength-in-us-earnings/

No-Detective-6229

literally sold all my IPI and some of CF shares on thursday. my guess would be they go boom on monday...

No-Detective-6229

just two days ago i sold all my IPI and some of my CF shares. i imagine those stocks are going to go big on monday. damn...

VANZFINEST

QNC QNC.V QNC.CF Up listing to NYSE coming. This is huge. https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/281251/Quantum-eMotion-Files-a-Form-40F-Registration-Statement

explorer_soul99

**Key Metrics (Private Prison Operators)** | Metric | GEO | CXW | |:--|:--|:--| | Market Cap | $2.4B | $2.2B | | ROE | 6.5% | 7.4% | | ROA | 2.4% | 3.5% | | EV/EBITDA | 9.2x | 9.5x | **Income Statement (TTM)** | Metric | GEO | CXW | |:--|:--|:--| | Revenue | $2.45B | $2.09B | | Op Income | $280M | $240M | | Gross Margin | 80.6% | 23.7% | | Op Margin | 11.6% | 11.3% | **Cash Flow (TTM)** | Metric | GEO | CXW | |:--|:--|:--| | Operating CF | $240M | $230M | | Free Cash Flow | $130M | $210M | Both trade at similar valuations (~9x EV/EBITDA) with similar ROE (6-7%). GEO has higher gross margin (80.6%) but CXW generates more FCF ($210M vs $130M). The ICE contract risk is real. these are essentially government contractors with political risk. At 6-7% ROE, you're not getting paid much for the headline risk. If you want the sector, CXW's better FCF conversion provides more margin of safety.

explorer_soul99

**Key Metrics (GLP-1 Leaders)** | Metric | NVO | LLY | |:--|:--|:--| | Market Cap | $1,695B | $955B | | ROE | **77.9%** | 102.3% | | ROA | **23.0%** | 16.0% | | EV/EBITDA | **11.5x** | 39.1x | **Income Statement (TTM)** | Metric | NVO | LLY | |:--|:--|:--| | Revenue | $315.6B | $59.4B | | Op Income | $132.7B | $26.1B | | Gross Margin | 82.0% | 83.0% | | Op Margin | **42.0%** | **43.9%** | **Cash Flow (TTM)** | Metric | NVO | LLY | |:--|:--|:--| | Operating CF | $123.8B | $16.1B | | Free Cash Flow | **$62.7B** | $9.0B | NVO vs LLY comes down to valuation: - **NVO:** 11.5x EV/EBITDA, $62.7B FCF, 42% op margin - **LLY:** 39.1x EV/EBITDA, $9.0B FCF, 44% op margin LLY trades at 3.4x NVO's multiple despite similar margins. NVO's recent drop (oral GLP-1 concerns) created a valuation gap. **OZEM ETF** dilutes exposure across the value chain. If you're bullish GLP-1, concentrated positions in NVO (cheaper) or LLY (momentum) outperform diversified ETF. OZEM makes sense only if you can't pick between them.

drew-gen-x

I was spamming chat yesterday about the 2022 tech rotation into commodities. Today $MOS, $NTR, $CF are all up 5-6%. I'm glad I added to $MOS yesterday over today.

drew-gen-x

$MOS, $NTR, $CF, $HAL, $OXY, $DVN, $APA, all up +3%. If you don't own a position in some of the commodity stocks, you are making the same mistake as those that weren't buying Gold before 2024. We are seeing a similar market rotation out of tech into commodities as we saw in 2022.

deepfuckingdish

I joined 3 years ago and have only written micro checks so far. I tend to believe diversification is the best approach and so do the minimum on their deals each time I see one that interests me ($1k) and have invested in 6 so far I think over the last 14 months or so (didn't feel comfortable investing before that because I knew so little about angel investing and had done some bad deals with Reg A/Reg CF offerings in the past) In terms of deal flow even though I know a good amount of startup founders I wouldn't have anywhere near as good the access they provide, and their investing framework they provide as a course in the squad helped me identify what actually matters from their formal early stage VC approach vs what might have caught my attention in the past but is just noise. Overall I'd say the value provided is well worth it, especially since they give you lifetime access once you join so the value accrues more over time

the_Q_spice

Bit more to it than that. The ruling could end up being a lot more complicated. Some other possibilities are; Tariffs ruled as illegal past the date of the ruling and repealed, but not refunded. Tariffs ruled as illegal, but only on certain country-by-country basis. Now CF has to sift through which of their contracts is impacted to make claims. Possibly the worst outcome for CF though; Tariffs on certain goods from certain countries are ruled illegal, but only for certain dates and conditions, additionally, partial or percentage refunds based on the harmonized tax code would be bad. This is particularly bad because now they have to treat each claim on a case by case basis and carefully research how each individual item in each case is impacted as well as to calculate out the percentage of tariff value for each component in each item in each delivery. Their potential margin is 25%. Even if the case goes “their way”, they could lose basically all of that margin in salary in order to file the claims.

fuckthis_job

No because they actually think tariffs are good lol. Lutnick was the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald before taking up commerce secretary position. Cantor Fitzgerald (since last July) has been purchasing tariff refund contracts (ie they pay 20-30% of however much the company paid in tariffs in order to receive 100% of the tariff refunds IF the tariffs are overruled). So if I pay $100 in tariffs, CF offers me $25 to "buy" my refund. If tariffs are overruled this Friday, CF gets $75 in profit. If tariffs are NOT overruled, CF loses $25.

ffo_kcuf_og

Not priced in, it was a binary outcome- heaven or hell. I own a lot of shares and calls, glad to see the success. Probably about a +5% move tomorrow. Now, is the company overvalued? Perhaps, but the future is so massive I’d expect the valuation to be a rich blend of discounted but massive future CF and an enterprise value based on the balance sheet due to the (declining rapidly) real risk.

Background_Quiet4843


drew-gen-x

$DE is up over 1.5%. $CF up 3.5%, $MOS up 5%. Money is moving into agriculture. I guess someone is buying the real dip. That looks a bit defensive to me.

ResponsibleSpell394

Based on hiring trends, Vertex Pharma. going to long around $30k. I checked the actual jobs out. Looks like they are gearing up production on some new drug. Could be their non-opiod painkiller. Could be CF drug. Something is going on. https://preview.redd.it/hzl2pm2ce36g1.png?width=1120&format=png&auto=webp&s=adf5775e9da1080c41ec5852d01d36c440f7cd2b

lupindub

Surprised it’s only down 2% despite this being the second CF outage this week

Correct_Proposal_409

https://preview.redd.it/oetndnza625g1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=37d17414c52bf9738be89afb035d4d99c307d17e I assume you are talking about this graph? That’s a great story about the little girl with CF and how CF was once thought to be untreatable. Hopefully there will be a parallel here with Parkinson’s.

MediumSinger8088

I keep thinking about the bar graph showing increased GCase activity in controls. That is another indication of authentic data - who would expect or include that otherwise? I am reminded that some proteins misfold most of the time. The cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator, for instance, misfolds 95% of the time - in normal individuals. In fact, helping the CFTR fold properly is the stated mechanism of action of Lumacaftor, Tezacaftor and Elexacaftor. **Trikafta is the most effective approved therapy for CFTR folding defects**, increasing CFTR function to 50–60% of normal in many F508del homozygotes/heterozygotes. So this concept of helping key proteins fold is not without precedent in approved - and miraculous - therapies. As an aside: The triple therapy for cystic fibrosis is miraculous. Used to be the disease wasn't even tested for at birth because there was nothing to do. I had a colleague who spent his life treating CF patients and remembers administering these drugs to a little girl who he had expected to die in couple of years. Years later he was invited to help walk her down the aisle at her wedding.

tyler_jewell

Is #AI in a bubble? My perspective. An analysis I did this morning. Two issues: demand for profit-generating #GPUs and demand for #AI. The anchor is NVIDIA, priced to 30% CAGR profit growth for 4 more years. Their revenues are primarily sourced from hyperscalers' ops CF. Hyperscalers steadily increase CapEx, likely creating a demand floor. Companies like Meta face existential threats, forcing costly debt-fueled spend. Hyperscalers face an accounting squeeze from GPU depreciation. NVidia's generation cycles are compressing from 3 yrs to 1, with generational efficiency improvements at 90%. If hyperscalers depreciate GPUs over 6 years, this mismatch creates an earnings crush. If latest generation CPU demand remains high, older GPUs have low revenue while still depreciating at current rates. Google, AMD, Intel Corporation, and the hyperscalers have their own GPU build-out. Substitutes are 2 years out and a generation behind; this presses NVIDIA into excess R&D to maintain its advantage. NVidia's smartest move was saturating TSMC's 2nm reserve; TSMC is the lynchpin for controlling the GPU supply chain. Not discussed: risk from circular deal-making on inflated EV, and #OpenAI's unrealistic datacenter commitments. The #AI demand problem: short-term over-optimism melded with long-term over-pessimism—a volatile mix. While MIT claims 12% of jobs are replaceable by AI today, reality lags. Enterprise adoption is 9+ months for simple uses. Adoption is blocked by: emergent AI, context rot, insufficient infosec, sovereign/localized AI, local hosting, agentic reliability, and org know-how. In Akka's 20 enterprise deployments, only half use foundry models for use cases that cannot replace workers. The physics of compute efficiency, cost curves, and privacy incentives all point toward a future where AI inference runs locally. This creates existential risk for cloud-first AI companies and those betting on centralized data centers. Privacy and geopolitical risks are driving govts away to air-gapped solutions. They have substantial dollars and fear continuous surveillance or cloud lock-in. When local AI gets fast enough on cost-effective machines, the market will flip, further pressuring hyperscaler margins. Consumer demand is hard to predict. Most are irritated by AI, yet ChatGPT wasn't discussed 3 years ago. The industry needs AI to be great for the consumer and will 'will' it into existence. As LLMs double their abilities every 7 months, forecasting the productivity of a 32x LLM is tough. Market: underestimating long-term AI demand while overestimating near-term demand, the industry's spend on premium GPUs, and how long cloud-AI vendors can hold pricing power. The market will probably dramatically appreciate over the next 18 months before an inevitable, painful mean reversion.

iamgrzegorz

Thank you for your concern, I assure you I’m doing fine. Was I lucky? Maybe. Does market just „like” Cloudflare and „doesn’t like” Beyond Meat? CF has been growing healthily every single quarter since 2020, Beyond Meat peaked in 2022 and has been in decline since then, so I think it’s more than just „liking” a company. Is my strategy repeatable? I didn’t even say sticking to a falling stock is my strategy, I literally just answered OPs question with a single data point from my own experience

OrdinaryWeekly7468

Cloudflare is mainly a security and edge computing company at this point. CDN is a critical part of what they do, but I wouldn't call it the main thing anymore. You can migrate security away from CF to something else, but it's a pain in the ass.

Maine2Maui

Do a rent or buy analysis to help decide. Also, assume when you retire you can move to a lower cost area. You can even look at buying in one now and renting it out. Your income can help pay for it and if you have positive CF even better. Buying is not always the only answer if you have a good rent situation. I bought outside of Hawaii because our costs were WAY CRAZY. I had a nice condo and hated the fees until I compared them to the cost of moving up to a single family ($400k minimum to match the condo location, finishes and space). Instead bought out of state and my renter is paying most of my mortgage. I kept my rent fair to get and keep a good tenant who treas the place well, does the yard etc and it wasn't $400k then. I do have family in the area to check on things too but you can get a property manager for about 10%. Just my approach.

sirzoop

I am literally just quoting the website you linked. Based value companies are defined by having low valuation metrics (such as a low P/E ratio or book value). Value traps are companies with low P/E ratios or book values that have awful fundamentals. All value trap companies are value companies by definition. But not all value companies are considered value traps, only the ones with declining fundamentals are. From your link: >Value stocks are usually larger, more well-established companies that trade below the price that analysts feel the stock is worth, depending upon the financial ratio or benchmark used as a comparison. For example, the book value of a company’s stock may be $25 a share based on the number of shares outstanding divided by the company’s capitalization. Therefore, if it trades for $20 a share at the moment, then many analysts would consider this to be a good value play. >Stocks can become undervalued for many reasons. In some cases, public perception will push the price down, such as if a major figure in the company is caught in a personal scandal or the company does something unethical. But if the company’s financials are still relatively solid, then value-seekers may see this as an ideal entry point, because they figure that the public will soon forget about whatever happened and the price will rise to where it should be. >Value stocks usually trade at a discount compared to P/E, book value, or cash flow ratios. Sometimes, stocks fall into both value and growth categories. These stocks are seen as undervalued yet also hold potential for growth. Morningstar classifies all of the equities and equity funds that it ranks into either a growth, value, or blended category. From my link: >A value trap is an investment that looks cheap based on metrics, such as price to earnings (P/E), price to cash flow (P/CF), or price to book value (P/B) ratios, but remains undervalued for good reason, often due to underlying business or industry weaknesses. >These persistently low valuations can persuade investors seeking bargains, only for the stock to fall further. Recognizing the warning signs, like declining earnings or structural issues, is necessary to avoid these deceptive investments. >A value trap appears attractive because of low valuation metrics, but the stock often continues to decline due to weak fundamentals or limited growth potential. These companies may face financial or management instability, making their low prices a warning rather than an opportunity. >Value investors are especially prone to these traps, so it's important to investigate why a stock is cheap and use thorough fundamental analysis to distinguish temporary setbacks from lasting problems. >

symolan

Cashflow is certainly the key, just usually, you don‘t really get the info needed to really assess that either. You‘d need a full business plan and management discussion in order to understand what will happen with investment CF. And as usually in public companies, you don‘t get that, I take any additional data point available. At least when I can be bothered…

PIK_Toggle

It’s the CF proxy used by the entire industry. If your argument is that free cash flow is a better metric, then I’d probably agree with you. If you think that EBITDA is a fake number that can be gamed, then it depends on what quantifies as an add-back.

AlfredoAllenPoe

Discounted Cash Flow. I project out revenue and profits for 10 years based on what I think will happen to the company and then discount those profits back to the present. Cash today is worth more than cash in the future, so future cash flows must be discounted to determine their present value. If the present value of the future cash flows produced by a share is greater than the cost to purchase a share, it's a buy for me. The discount rate is based on how risky a company's future cash flows are. A company like Crocs would have a much higher discount rate than a company like Microsoft since Microsoft is way less risky than Crocs. Their profits are more secure. A discount rate is the risk-free If a company produces $100 in profits this year and grows at 10% per year for the next 5 years, a cash flow projection would be 2025: $100.00 2026: $110.00 2027: $121.00 2028: $131.10 2029: $146.41 But those future cash flows must be discounted back to the present. Dollars today are worth more than dollars in the future due to opportunity cost and inflation. If I use an 8% discount rate, the present value of the future cash flows can be determined using PV = CF / (1+r)^t For example, 2026 would be $110/(1.08)^1 = $101.85. I would receive $110 a year from now, but I should only pay <$101.85 for the right to receive that cash specific years worth of cash. For 2027, it would be $121/(1.08)^2 =$103.74, and so on. If you do this for all of the years and add a terminal multiplier for future growth, you can figure out what market cap should be based on your projections. If the Net Present Value is greater than or equal to $0, you should purchase the company according to financial theory. You can find some videos on YouTube that go over it

AlfredoAllenPoe

Discounted Cash Flow. I project out revenue and profits for 10 years based on what I think will happen to the company and then discount those profits back to the present. Cash today is worth more than cash in the future, so future cash flows must be discounted to determine their present value. If the present value of the future cash flows produced by a share is greater than the cost to purchase a share, it's a buy for me. The discount rate is based on how risky a company's future cash flows are. A company like Crocs would have a much higher discount rate than a company like Microsoft since Microsoft is way less risky than Crocs. Their profits are more secure. If a company produces $100 in profits this year and grows at 10% per year for the next 5 years, a cash flow projection would be 2025: $100.00 2026: $110.00 2027: $121.00 2028: $131.10 2029: $146.41 But those future cash flows must be discounted back to the present. Dollars today are worth more than dollars in the future due to opportunity cost and inflation. If I use an 8% discount rate, the present value of the future cash flows can be determined using PV = CF / (1+r)^t For example, 2026 would be $110/(1.08)^1 = $101.85. I would receive $110 a year from now, but I should only pay <$101.85 for the right to receive that cash. If you do this for all of the years and add a terminal multiplier for future growth, you can figure out what market cap should be based on your projections. If the Net Present Value is greater than or equal to $0, you should purchase the company according to financial theory. You can find some videos on YouTube that go over it

CannaVestments

Overall a solid Q3 showing from GTI, with continued cash flow generation, positive net income, and modest YoY growth, although margin declines continued as price compression in core markets continued to weigh on results and led to the largest same-store-sales declines in some time. A lean balance sheet and strong CF profile has provided the company flexibility, allowing them to pursue the few growth markets available in 2025 (namely AU in Minnesota showing up in Q4, the fastest growing state market in NY, and the hemp-derived opportunity through RYM), and they notched another potential win as adult-use in Virginia became a lot more likely in 2026 as Dems took the governor's office yesterday. Full review: **Revenue:**  QoQ: $293.3M to $291.4M / YoY: $286.9M to $291.4M *Down slightly sequentially and up 1.5% from last year, right at consensus of $291M. Largely the same base of assets sequentially as their new PA store and adult-use launch in Minnesota both occurred right at the end of the quarter. Wholesale was up 8% while retail was down 1% YoY. Looking ahead, additional store openings in OH, AU sales in Minnesota, and continued growth in NY will drive near-term growth while adult-use in Virginia becomes a likely 2026 story with the governor election results yesterday. Keep an eye on Agrify/RYM results as well given their majority ownership of the company.* **Adjusted EBIDTA:**  QoQ: $82.7M to $80.2 / YoY: $89.2M to $80.2M *Down 3.0% sequentially and 10.1% from last year, a steep drop to their lowest mark in years. Margin drops to 27.5% from 28.2% last quarter and 31.1% last year, slightly shorter of expectations of $82M. Price compression and increased brand investment spend as forecasted by the company weighed on the margin profile- an area to watch in the coming quarters.* **Gross Margins:**  QoQ 49.9% to 49.4% / YoY: 51.4% to 49.4% *Steady sequentially but down from last year as management pointed to continued price compression in core markets of IL/NJ/PA.* **Operating Expenses:**  QoQ: $106.8M to $107.3M / YoY: $105.0M to $107.3M *Up slightly sequentially and YoY, although solid considering the new stores opened during that time.* **Operational Cash Flow:**  QoQ: $56.4M to $74.1M / YoY: $47.7M to $74.1M *Unlike previous years, GTI is letting their income tax payable accumulate to a certain extent in 2025, perhaps waiting to see if S3 is passed and for 280e not to apply in calendar year 2025. Adjusting for unpaid taxes, OCF was $34.2M in Q2 and $124.8M YTD compared to $144.8M through Q3 2024. Still the strongest tax-adjusted OCF in the industry by a wide margin although down from last year given margin declines. CapEx was $17.5M in Q3 and $66.4M YTD.* **Cash:**  QoQ: $176.9M to $226.2M / YoY: $173.6M to $226.2M *Jump here as positive OCF more than offset CapEx spend. GTI also lent money to RYM who then paid GTI back in their brand IP purchases which resulted largely in a wash overall on investing actility. Debt stands at $247.4M and income tax payable of $81.6M.*

Aggravating_Lychee99

For anyone curious about the news behind this company, I made a post (just four days ago) linking articles about the moves they're making with the UK courts, and deals that they are negotiating with the Puerto Rican government: [https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/comments/1okvk5t/nfe\_is\_at\_huge\_discount/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/comments/1okvk5t/nfe_is_at_huge_discount/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) The Wall Street Journal also published an article about NFE very recently: [https://www.wsj.com/articles/puerto-rico-board-seats-become-battleground-in-16-billion-debt-restructurings-3c598a73?gaa\_at=eafs&gaa\_n=AWEtsqdSa5E\_vCIOO53Uya6HIOE24AUVLkvv6hpT6W9-ul7m6S2nmWI6pzBc18wP\_dA%3D&gaa\_ts=6904ce98&gaa\_sig=nTxDqJiQj3LCq29CF0InH5mVrsilONq4J-WKiq\_C-R3zldTrECOQpR\_aTlYH4p\_HuABRETGXFBz6XQfcS3hY8A%3D%3D](https://www.wsj.com/articles/puerto-rico-board-seats-become-battleground-in-16-billion-debt-restructurings-3c598a73?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqdSa5E_vCIOO53Uya6HIOE24AUVLkvv6hpT6W9-ul7m6S2nmWI6pzBc18wP_dA%3D&gaa_ts=6904ce98&gaa_sig=nTxDqJiQj3LCq29CF0InH5mVrsilONq4J-WKiq_C-R3zldTrECOQpR_aTlYH4p_HuABRETGXFBz6XQfcS3hY8A%3D%3D) And additional info on the UK efforts: [https://ts2.tech/en/new-fortress-energy-seeks-u-k-lifeline-to-dodge-bankruptcy-shares-crash-as-9-b-debt-weighs/](https://ts2.tech/en/new-fortress-energy-seeks-u-k-lifeline-to-dodge-bankruptcy-shares-crash-as-9-b-debt-weighs/)

greytoc

Yes - it's legit in the sense that it's legal. No - I don't use them. The few times that I engaged in private equity investments - I prefer not to use a private placement broker or secondary marketplace since it's not worth it to me. Hiive and Startengine are entirely different. In general - if you are unfamiliar with private equity investing or Reg CF/A+ offerings - you should avoid it.

Aggravating_Lychee99

Yeah, WSJ also posted about them today: [https://www.wsj.com/articles/puerto-rico-board-seats-become-battleground-in-16-billion-debt-restructurings-3c598a73?gaa\_at=eafs&gaa\_n=AWEtsqdSa5E\_vCIOO53Uya6HIOE24AUVLkvv6hpT6W9-ul7m6S2nmWI6pzBc18wP\_dA%3D&gaa\_ts=6904ce98&gaa\_sig=nTxDqJiQj3LCq29CF0InH5mVrsilONq4J-WKiq\_C-R3zldTrECOQpR\_aTlYH4p\_HuABRETGXFBz6XQfcS3hY8A%3D%3D](https://www.wsj.com/articles/puerto-rico-board-seats-become-battleground-in-16-billion-debt-restructurings-3c598a73?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqdSa5E_vCIOO53Uya6HIOE24AUVLkvv6hpT6W9-ul7m6S2nmWI6pzBc18wP_dA%3D&gaa_ts=6904ce98&gaa_sig=nTxDqJiQj3LCq29CF0InH5mVrsilONq4J-WKiq_C-R3zldTrECOQpR_aTlYH4p_HuABRETGXFBz6XQfcS3hY8A%3D%3D)

Individual-Motor-167

Cantor Fitzgerald and Tether. We know CF got money and through relationships it seems quite likely Tether did also.

PaperHandsTheDip

The only way I can think of to scale this is to hire a bunch of guys to manually input the shit for you. Crowdsource accounts and do arb between different accounts / names. You can obfuscate all your arbs if you have multiple people. Difficulty of figuring it out who is "in the group" and who isn't grows exponentially as people increase linearly due to combinations of accounts you can arb inbetween. For example - a group of 6 people may be enough to run a sophisticated arb operation on. We know bookies blacklist people / talk to each other (just like casinos) -- so you gotta be smart about it. For example - if you have 6 accounts / people, A,B,C,D,E,F. You arb between A (long) and B (short) on two different brokers. You can do the combinations AB AC AD AE AF \-- BC BD BE BF \-- CD CE CF \-- DE DF \-- Never run the arb between two accounts with the same name. This gives you 14 unique ways to run arbs while minimizing risk of getting caught. With 10 people you basically can run hundreds of arbs in different combinations. Obfuscation is one way to remain undetected.

Ltshineyside


InvestigatorWooden33

JPM earnings better pay for the CF hood for my stinger

No-Consequence-8768

Tell him I did the same(much larger$$$) Mid March, got Margined CF17(they call it) called April 10th at -107%. They sold my House and my 2nd Born!

Independent_Name_601

Thank you for your insights on this. From a consumer standpoint both companies offer similar but different experiences even though they operate similar ports and excursions. They definitely feel different when on board. Reviewing the numbers: By all indications (other than top line) RCL appears to be a better run company - if you see something different I am all ears. Top line revenue is a growth metric but it looks at a point in time, given that CCL is larger than RCL it’s not a surprise they have a higher revenue reported. In my thesis I look at change in revenue over the past 5 years RCL crushes CCL. 50% growth in revenue ($10.95B in 2019 vs $16.48B in 2024). CCL has around 20% growth, still respectable ($20B in 2019 vs $25.02B in 2024). In 2019 total cruise revenue was $53.3B over industry. This means at the time, CCL owned about 40% of the market. With RCL, they owned a combined 60% of the market. Fast forward to 2024 and the combined revenues of CCL and RCL are 41.5B vs $55.66B (total cruise revenue was virtually stagnate over the 5 years due to COVID travel), yet CCL was only able to grow revenues from $20B to $25B and control 44.9% of market - whereas RCL has increased revenues to $16.48B and improved their market share to 29.6% of market. Still less than CCL but based on their growth and projected growth they will eclipse CCL as top Cruise line in near future, and likely be able to do it with less passengers which creates higher demand and pricing ability and better overall efficiency. Further, as I noted CF, FCF, levered FCF, etc are all better for RCL - which adds to their attractiveness as an investment, despite the debt loads of both companies. Now, the risk is definitely in play because CCL could acquire an additional cruise line and bolster their financials. Especially with their focus on debt repayment. Also as I note above RCL is still a smaller line than CCL (about 70%) of the size. If current metrics are maintained for both companies my guess is RCL will be top cruise line on all valuation metrics sometime in early 2030s. CCLs moat is being chipped away at by RCL and smaller cruise lines. Their stock price, even with the higher valuation on a P/E basis is poised to continue to go higher. I do think both companies will see decent returns, you won’t go wrong with CCL, but overall I think opportunity is higher with RCL. Even during COVID this was true, and coming out of COVID CCL is still lagging RCL at the stock market level.

Kenyan_Cowboy

Agreed! HydroGraph has one of the most exciting stories in the advanced materials space right now. Graphene’s potential is off the charts, and if HydroGraph’s process truly delivers high-purity, scalable production, that’s a huge technical edge. The recent U.S. patent definitely adds legitimacy to the IP side, and the Austin relocation shows they’re serious about positioning for growth. That said, **it’s still early-stage territory.**.. Turning groundbreaking science into commercial products takes time, partnerships, and capital - and most of the big upside depends on execution*.* Scaling production profitably, landing long-term customers (Q4 2025?!), and keeping dilution under control are all real challenges that will decide whether this becomes the next major materials player or just another promising story. Their[ new investor deck](https://docs.publicnow.com/viewDoc?filename=207719%5CEXT%5CF857C5EB6DAF05BB82B73AADD84E6BDF2347A226_89175F0DBDA6B26B240B1570C56A7DB5D14CA2F4.PDF) looks positive, as are the CEO's recent interviews. The next 11 weeks are going to be important, as they have promised some contracts in Q4 2025 (tonnage!). I believe this will help ease people's (especially my) minds and drive the stock up towards the $4 target for early next year. So yeah, the upside looks massive... but some patience and proof will be key. Exciting times ahead if they can keep delivering and you have the balls to hold strong 🚀 I'd be keen to hear what people are using to keep track of the company and do thier or DD on HGRAF? I found this link super useful, [https://thecse.com/listings/hydrograph-clean-power-inc/news-releases/](https://thecse.com/listings/hydrograph-clean-power-inc/news-releases/), as well as the many YouTube interviews and other investor boards. But if there is anything else, please do share.

tstrand1204

VFF. No net debt. CF and earnings positive.

Mediocre_Wave_7441

EPS negative bcz of Depreciation, non cash expense (accounting expense and not an economic expense) as Capex already incurred. With EBITDA positive they will be CF positive at some soon, its cash what matters. Although they need future CAPEX but that will be funded through revenue and if they can improve EBITDA margins this means cash.

disloyal_royal

Supply and demand is a reasonable thing to discuss. I’d say that the PV of Future CF is the demand so it’s the same thing I’m saying. But the first guy said > It's all supply and demand. If someone pays for it at X, that's why the price is at X. In supply and demand price is the output not an input, which is what makes it a circular argument

TheoryInttro

Martial arts nerds are a thing. CF: Zuck.

Jeff__Skilling

Yeah, buying DIS in Q3 2020 when we had no clue when COVID was going to end, so nearterm CF expectations would have been in the shitter for all any major players that need movie theatres and amusement parks up and running. Not to mention the huge capex spend tied to getting Disney+ up and off the ground.

kokatsu_na

**GTER Globa Terra Acquisition** 0.12 152.2 - Deeply undervalued SPAC, good potential for arbitrage +++ ~~ORIQ Origin Investment~~ I 0.13 60.6 - Trust fund is too small ~~LWAC LightWave Acquisition 0.16 215.7~~ \- Bad team, several failures (Moolec, View, AEye), overly beneficial to sponsors (26.8% promote). With only one success CF Finance Acquisition Corp. I -> GCM Grosvenor. SOCA Solarius Capital Acquisition 0.17 173.4 - Specialists in M&A and private equity, no experience in SPAC niche. Warrants are cheap. ~~OBA Oxley Bridge Acquisition 0.17 253.1~~ \- Bad team. Southeast Asia. Nah. ~~PACH Pioneer Acquisition I 0.17 253.2~~ \- Bad team. All previous deals are complete disaster. ~~FIGX FIGX Capital Acquisition 0.18 150.6~~ \- Bad team, several failures (failed Bleuacacia + AAGR) *BLUW Blue Water Acquisition III 0.18 253.6* \- Not my niche, no idea (?) **IPOD Dune Acquisition II** 0.19 145 - Undervalued, theoretically can find a 10 bagger in AI niche VNME Vendome Acquisition I 0.20 200 - Elite team, experts in restructuring and private equity, but no experience in SPAC niche. ~~COPL Copley Acquisition 0.20 174.5~~ \- Asia. TACH Titan Acquisition 0.23 280 - OKAY TEAM, fair price. Successes - Paya, Payoneer, Perella Weinberg Partners. But several delisted zombie SPACs. **PAII Pyrophyte Acquisition II** 0.24 200.4 - Decent SPAC, can potentially find a oil/mining company TVA Texas Ventures Acquisition III 0.24 227.9 - OKAY SPAC, previous deals - Arbe Robotics + NEXT Renewable Fuels (failed to complete merger). Sneaky warrant terms favoring insiders. **EVAC EQV Ventures Acquisition II** 0.28 460 - TOP TIER SPAC, STRONG BUY +++++ **CGCT Cartesian Growth III** 0.28 277.8 - STRONG BUY, might find a target soon +++++ **NHIC NewHold Investment III** 0.29 202.9 - A team of professionals from private equity are playing "SPAC game". The SPAC leader Kevin Charlton was a president in Hennessy acquisition, previous deals - Blue Bird, Daseke, NRC Group. They focus on "boring" businesses mostly. First SPAC merged with Evolv Technologies ++ ~~GSHR Gesher Acquisition II 0.30 144.3~~ \- Meh, I'd avoid Israel related companies + low cap

I_HopeThat_WasFart

you need to understand IV at a fundamental level, most options training completely ignores this very critical point as well as basic pricing of options via theoretical models check out [Option Pricing and Volatility](https://www.walmart.com/ip/Option-Volatility-and-Pricing-Advanced-Trading-Strategies-and-Techniques-2nd-Edition-Hardcover-9780071818773/33551036?wmlspartner=wlpa&selectedSellerId=0&selectedOfferId=7CF8C2850CC44E24AE9D1D236BCE13E5&conditionGroupCode=1&wmlspartner=wlpa&cn=FY25-ENTP-PMAX_cnv_dps_dsn_dis_ad_entp_e_n&gclsrc=aw.ds&adid=222222222977CF8C2850CC44E24AE9D1D236BCE13E5_0000000000_21407473164&wl0=&wl1=x&wl2=c&wl3=&wl4=&wl5=9027599&wl6=&wl7=&wl8=&wl9=pla&wl10=8175035&wl11=online&wl12=7CF8C2850CC44E24AE9D1D236BCE13E5&veh=sem&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=21690411341&gbraid=0AAAAADmfBIoaZsleEnXmI9I-sXv6m4zXj&gclid=CjwKCAjwiY_GBhBEEiwAFaghvu9wI-hPh7LOBFaUuQcpHRSPZb1pgWWE7bThEBw_ShtF8G4u1MLMBRoCVS4QAvD_BwE) Its considered the Bible for beginners and something I reference and read almost daily Also look at [https://www.youtube.com/@QuantGuild](https://www.youtube.com/@QuantGuild), its math heavy but he dumbs it down well. If you really want a thourough understanding of volatility at a level instituional traders are at, his stuff is great

Key_Yesterday5264

Don't look at PE ratio, It's a noob bait (EV is better, CF etc.). Shorting rapidly growing stock like PLTR is recipe for disaster.

sighnwaves

It's a contract in which CF chips in to pay a percentage of the tariff for struggling business owners.....but if the tariffs get revoked they collect 100% of the refund. It's diabolical.

Humble_Umpire_8341

Cantor Fitzgerald is an 80 year old company headed by the Lutnicks’s. Bessent has nothing to do with the firm. But you are correct that apparently the contracts that CF engaged in has them keeping any money whether the tariffs remain or not. They’ll make money either way.

Ok_Ground9015

Seriously considering throwing it all on MBOT on Monday. 

ctguy54

All the data from the trials is given to the FDA. it’s in the public domain. And any reported adverse effects are also reported to the FDA. CF tump just can’t read above a 5th grade level. Someone needs to explain the science to him.

Timevalueofmoonbitz

Good luck with your CEO, future earnings look promising o wait not really. No growth plan and marketing is sub par. LMND running at a loss due to growth spend while reducing operating costs. Just remember the tortoise and the hare story. In two years LMND will be over 10b in market cap. Already CF positive and have guided for profitability that is definitely being sandbagged. Once this happens you will be happy with a $135+ stock price and it would still be a good deal.

Mr_Snow___

The APs were listed on the financials awhile back. Nomura, CF Secured & Clearstreet IIRC.

greytoc

I'm not a big fan of Reg CF offerings. The seem a bit predatory and the transaction costs seem higher. IMO if a business venture cannot raise capital and has to go via a Reg CF route - it seems like a desperate route. Is there a reason why you wouldn't simply raise all the capital via bank loans and venture debt?

SteadfastEquity

That's where it gets nuanced. There are many laws around this. One possibility is 144, which does not require accredited status if unaffiliated with the issuer. Or even 506b allows 35 unaccredited investors. Or an interval fund (which this is not), or a CF, A+, S1, etc. Lots of things it could be. What you are referring to is the basic standard under 506b/c and/or the 1.5 quasi exemption.

Various_Couple_764

They are all decent fidelity funds with low expense and there is nothing wrong with them. for fund today we have Mutual funds. ETF, And CEFs. Mutual funds are not traded on stock exchanges, So you have to buy shares of the funds directly from the natural fund. So it is a little slower buying and selling. these funds distribute yearly dividend and occasionally a capital gain distribution. The ETF (Exchange traded funds) like stocks are traded at exchanges so buying and selling is faster. These distribute dividend but no capital gains distributions. So they are slightly more tax efficient than mutual funds. But in a roth there are no taxes. The first ETF was ceased in the 90s and now ETF are replacing mutual funds. Otherwise they are very similar to mutual funds. One note, ETFs and mutual funds increase the number of shares when the fund is growing. So the number of shares available on the market is variable. CF (Closed end fund) are structured just like business. This means the shares in circulation are fixed. This has the advantage of increasing the dividned slightly but it also increase the expenses. The also have a bit more flexibility in how they invest there money. You are basically investing your money in growth index funds. which will work. But Roth accounts arelimted to 7000 a year deposit. So aver 20 years you likely will have about 1/2 a million in the roth. It is however very helpful to add a high yield dividend fund to your roth. IF you add a fund that generates 1000 a month in dividneds you are effectively increasing the deposit limit to 171% (7000 a year you deposit plus 12000 a year of dividned deposits. This can easily push your fund past 1 million in 20 years. I have been using QQQI for this in my roth. It has a 13% yield. However next year I will be adding BTCI to it which yields 25% That can push the roth well past 1 million in 20 years.

HotandSpicy42

You should consider the following: [https://x.com/i/grok/share/UENE80tJ09lKRAV8CF4ZfSNty](https://x.com/i/grok/share/UENE80tJ09lKRAV8CF4ZfSNty)

CannaVestments

FYI not going to do my usual full reviews this quarter. My wife and I just had our first baby and I will be busy! This report looks largely as expected- strong margins, holding share well in FL, although little growth and a good chunk of the CF still coming from not paying 280e which continues to be the largest concern on the balance sheet at over $500M now should their IRS challenge fail. Still would say they look better than a lot of their peers, second to only GTI in true cash flow generation. FL ballot in 2026 again going to be inpo

Married-and-dating

Here's a short list * **Mid‑2025** – Initial human data from PM359 (CGD Phase 1/2) anticipated – May 19, 2025 readout reported: 58% DHR positivity Day 15; 66% by Day 30; clean safety profile [celeritasinsights.com+10investors.primemedicine.com+10Nasdaq+10](https://investors.primemedicine.com/news-releases/news-release-details/prime-medicine-announces-breakthrough-clinical-data-showing/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **July 16, 2025** – Additional up to $24 M funding from CF Foundation for cystic fibrosis programs [investors.primemedicine.com](https://investors.primemedicine.com/news-releases/news-release-details/prime-medicine-announces-additional-funding-24-million-cystic?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **Late 2025** – Expected new preclinical data from CF, Wilson’s Disease, and potentially other pipeline programs (presentations/publications) [investors.primemedicine.com](https://investors.primemedicine.com/news-releases/news-release-details/prime-medicine-highlight-new-preclinical-data-including-vivo/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)[BioSpace](https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/prime-medicine-reports-third-quarter-2024-financial-results-and-provides-business-updates?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **H1 2026** – Planned IND or CTA filing for Wilson’s Disease (PM577) and AATD program [Nasdaq+7investors.primemedicine.com+7Nasdaq+7](https://investors.primemedicine.com/news-releases/news-release-details/prime-medicine-reports-first-quarter-2025-financial-results-and/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **2026** – Initiation of clinical trials for Wilson’s Disease & AATD; potential shift of CGD to pivotal study phase [investors.primemedicine.com](https://investors.primemedicine.com/news-releases/news-release-details/prime-medicine-reports-first-quarter-2025-financial-results-and/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)[Nasdaq](https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/prime-medicine-announces-strategic-restructuring-focus-opportunities-large-genetic?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **2027** – First clinical data expected from Wilson’s Disease and AATD trials; follow‑on data anticipated from BMS CAR‑T collaboration and CF programs Here's their corporate slide deck: [https://investors.primemedicine.com/static-files/a44c9990-f654-4c55-8e68-f034c9daa691](https://investors.primemedicine.com/static-files/a44c9990-f654-4c55-8e68-f034c9daa691) This is a revolutionary company that is literally on the verge of revolutionizing medicine... just kinda shocking when it was $1 a few months ago nobody was talking about it. I think it's still a steal. Bought another 10k today

Training-Nerve-7273

From email : To date, the Board’s review has identified serious concerns regarding the prior administration of Company funds, material gaps in disclosure during the Company’s Regulation Crowdfunding campaign, and extensive related-party transactions involving former CEO and Director, Mr. Logan Fahey. These concerns, while not definitive findings of liability, raise material questions about the Company’s past financial stewardship, internal controls, and compliance with its legal and fiduciary obligations. The Board continues to evaluate these issues in coordination with legal counsel and reserves all rights as appropriate. Graze has received claims exceeding $2 million from vendors, employees, creditors, and contractors. These include both disputed and undisputed claims for alleged deferred compensation, unpaid invoices, high-interest bridge loans, and settlement agreements. Many of these contracts appear to have been entered into without contemporaneous Board approval or without a clear capital plan in place. The Board is assessing whether the structure, volume, and timing of these obligations, particularly during an active Reg CF raise, were consistent with the Company’s public disclosures and internal governance protocols.

G4M35

> We are a newly organized blank check company. (Incorporated in the Cayman Islands) We expect to focus on a target in an industry where we believe our management team’s and our affiliates’ expertise will provide us with a competitive advantage, including the financial services, healthcare, real estate services, technology and software industries. (Note: CF Acquisition Corp. A unveiled the terms of its SPAC IPO in an S-1/A filing on June 14, 2024: 10 million Class A ordinary shares at $10.00 each to raise $100.0 million. Background: CF Acquisition Corp. A, formerly known as CF International Acquisition Corp., submitted confidential IPO documents to the SEC in 2021.) > Address: [110 East 59th Street New York, NY 10022](https://www.google.com/maps/place/110+E+59th+St,+New+York,+NY+10022/@40.7625478,-73.9689652,3a,90y,210.7h,102.22t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sAb_KYZtfxXxcRx9ioZh12A!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fcb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile%26w%3D900%26h%3D600%26pitch%3D-12.222852957401074%26panoid%3DAb_KYZtfxXxcRx9ioZh12A%26yaw%3D210.70170398653684!7i16384!8i8192!4m7!3m6!1s0x89c258e56561dda3:0xf06c5dbcac5926a9!8m2!3d40.7623938!4d-73.9691527!10e5!16s%2Fg%2F11hrs804c_?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI1MDcyOS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D) LOL > Phone Number (212) 938-5000 Google says it belongs to Cantor Fitzgerald Sauce: https://www.iposcoop.com/ipo/cf-acquisition-corp-class-a/ Sounds like the perfect YOLO/meme stock

Cappuccino-Man

Just found this ticker today, unbelieve potential. I must have something wrong. **Cash Per Share Back of the Envelope Calculation** Closing Cash Balance Dec-24: $7,160 \+Proceeds from Protefs Sale $7,000 \+Proceeds from Sale of Salt Lake City $16,100 \-Commission/Costs of Disposal: ($1,155) \+Public Offering Closed $18,000 \-Fees on Public Offering: ($1,800) \-Negative CF from Operations (7 Months) ($3,000) =Cash on Hand: \~$42,305k Shares Outstanding: 70,408k (as of 28 July 2025) Cash/Share = $0.6 **Assumptions** * 5% costs for commissions/disposals * 10% cost for placement/offering * Cash from disposals has been received in full * Public offer funds received in full * Negative CF from operations (could be higher given they've sold two vessels, however, they are now operating their new vessel purchased last year, Zeze Start. First charter for this vessel approx. 16 Feb 2025 to 06 Aug 2025/06 Sep 2025) * Disregarded AR/AP/Inventories/Accruals - assume these relatively net off as at Dec-24 and are subsequentially accounted for in my CF from operations figure Given it is trading around 20c, this has a bit more to go I reckon. When you factor in their three vessels (even at a large discount to their NBV) you end up with an even higher valuation. Please point out anything I am missing, or more conservative estimates to mine above.

SPAC_Time

One difference in the CEP vs CEPO deals that may be a factor in the price differential: "[Tether has also agreed to purchase Bitcoin in an amount](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250423962305/en/Tether-SoftBank-Group-and-Jack-Mallers-Launch-Twenty-One-a-Bitcoin-native-Company-Through-a-Business-Combination-With-Cantor-Equity-Partners#:~:text=Tether%20has%20also%20agreed%20to%20purchase%20Bitcoin%20in%20an%20amount) equal to the aggregate amount of the convertible senior secured notes and equity PIPE offerings, less transaction expenses and certain other amounts, ***within 10 business days of the date hereof***, plus additional Bitcoin to the extent investors elect to exercise their Convertible Notes Option. **This Bitcoin will then be purchased by Twenty One upon closing using the proceeds of the PIPE offerings at a purchase price equal to the amount paid by Tether for such Bitcoin**." When the CEP deal was announced, Bitcoin was around $85k each, rising to about $95,000 ten days later. That is what Twenty One will pay for the PIPE bitcoin. CEP is buying Bitcoin ( at least the PIPE contribution ) for about $95,000 each. May be misreading, but it looks like the deal was priced when Bitcoin was $85k each; if that is correct, then each Bitcoin being contributed by Tether and Bitfinex will convert into 85,000/10 = 8500 shares of the post combination company. "[The transaction values Twenty One at a pro-forma enterprise value](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250423962305/en/Tether-SoftBank-Group-and-Jack-Mallers-Launch-Twenty-One-a-Bitcoin-native-Company-Through-a-Business-Combination-With-Cantor-Equity-Partners#:~:text=The%20transaction%20values%20Twenty%20One) of $3.6 billion, based on a Bitcoin spot price of $84,863.57 (a 10-day average CME CF BRRNY price) as of April 21, 2025." CEPO: "[5,021 Bitcoin in-kind PIPE](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250717734598/en/Bitcoin-Standard-Treasury-Company-to-go-Public-Through-Business-Combination-with-Cantor-Equity-Partners-I-Inc.#:~:text=5%2C021%20Bitcoin%20in%2Dkind%20PIPE) with commitments from long-time Bitcoin “OGs,” the first PIPE funded entirely though in-kind contributions from the Bitcoin community, priced at $10.00 per share 25,000 Bitcoin to be contributed by founding shareholders, advised by Blockstream Capital Partners (an investment manager led by Dr. Adam Back and other long-time Bitcoiners), priced at $10.00 per share" "[The number of Class A ordinary shares or Newco Interests](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2027708/000121390025064922/ea0249323-8k425_cantor1.htm#:~:text=The%20number%20of%20Class%20A%20ordinary%20shares) to be issued in exchange for Bitcoin will equal the U.S. dollar price of one Bitcoin as determined by the average of the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate - New York Variant **for the ten-day period ending two calendar days prior to the Closing Date**, multiplied by the number of Bitcoin contributed by such investor, and then divided by $10.00." CEPO will pay the average 10-day Bitcoin price just before the combination closes, which might be around the end of the year. By then, Bitcoin could be $150,000 each, especially if the government backing continues to pump crypto. If so, then each Bitcoin would convert into 150,000/10 = 15,000 shares of the post combination company.

Yupperroo

No, the medicine has to be taken for the rest of one's life, but it allows the person to be free of CF as long as they are on the medicine. They are creating another drug that will be available in the next year or two.

IllustriousEnd2055

Is it a true cure for CF, as in no longer needing the medication after a year or two of treatment?

GAV17

Exactly this. EPS, P/E, etc. are meaningless. That's why you'll see some REITs ETF not even showing P/E like for every other stock ETF, and showing something like P/CF.

Hot-Television-2829

so is car sales for TSLA. I’m not saying the fundamentals of TSLA and GOOGL are comparable, but the situation is somewhat similar: both their fundamental cash flow stream is facing a headwind, but the valuation is only based marginally on this fundamental CF. The big difference: GOOGL is valued quite cheap while TSLA is exorbitantly valued. A drop in those fundamental CF’s should influence the share price, but only marginally. The valuation is just not there. However, the most treacherous event would be if ad revenue falls significantly leading to falling investments in AI, Cloud and Waymo for example. I do not estimate this event being likely to happen as GOOGL has great management so far, however, one could not fully rule out this scenario.

yodogyodog

What’s the CF subreddit? Whsts CF? Is it like watching the videos on USA crime dot com?

GhostsinGlass

Holy shit, just saw one of the more brutal videos from the Uk-Russ war over on the CF subreddit. It's a camera POV from a passenger on an ATV looking over the shoulder of the driver. They're tootling along when all of a sudden WHIRR\*BOOM\* next thing you know the passengers POV is of the ATV continuing to drive along with just the legs and lower torso of the driver before they finally crash. It's not in the top 10 of the brutal videos to come out of that war I've seen but it's close. Calls on drone companies, all drone companies, fire everything.

Galactic-Guardian404

Letting CF-34 have a say in how the Fed is run is like letting a toddler drive a city bus…

greytoc

Why the heck would you even consider investing in this? This looks like just a run of the mill startup that couldn't attract any real investors - so they went the Reg CF/A+ offering route.

Useful-Stay4512

Nitrogen stocks like CF and UAN 🚀 - the world needs nitrogen to eat 🌽

thesvenisss

Oil up, production costs up, inflation up, tech being heavily CF forward valued down in that situation.

SpatialChase

The convertible notes being offered at earnings pay out 0.00% interest. That's essential free loans that can be converted into shares of GME at a specific share price, the current one is set at ~28.71$/share. The option of payback for these loans are at the discretion of GME, not the buyers. The company can choose to payback the notes with cash OR shares. Dilution through these means does increase the share count but also gives GME increasing amounts of cash on hand to do whatever they want, like buy Bitcoin. The current P/CF ratio is under 2. That indicates an extremely underpriced/oversold stock. GME cash on hand is at ~80% of market cap, another insane ratio. You do with that information what you want.

xViscount

Exactly this. Theres a reason Huawei had a seamless transition to car tech. China is putting a strangle hold on electric while republicans are scared of solar and wind. Dems scared of software while republicans are scared of hardware. Gotta love the CF the US is in now

thebluepin

on energy matters, its important to note that a unit can come online, but not be used. you want something called "capacity factor" that is the % of time a unit is operational.https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/china-coal-plants so something like 50% of the time the coal fleet is turned off. a one upon a time benchmark for the US was 70% CF was needed to be really profitable. when it gets into the low 50s and into the 40s you would see closures for economics. its like the "ghost cities" the provinces "open" coal plants for job creation. but those new coal plants arent running all the much. so that creation, is a CCP number for jobs rather than an indication of wide spread coal usage. Chinese emissions plateaued this year in most calculations, and may have peaked. its far more likely that China's emissions will drop far faster and lower then the US.

aks40655

It wasn’t a Reg-A or Reg CF offering. This was a Reg D 506(b) private placement, open only to accredited investors. I invested through a specific “series” LLC that pooled into a late-stage fund focused on pre-IPO opportunities. The PPM (private placement memorandum) does grant the manager broad discretion to sell positions on terms they deem appropriate. However, what’s unclear is whether the manager or underlying seller actually sold the SpaceX shares — or if the shares were returned without a true sale. The timing (immediately after I asked about my holdings) and price ($70/share, when another investor got $105/share in a different series) raise red flags. So far, the fund hasn’t provided any transaction documents, valuation methodology, or clarity on why the distribution price was set the way it was. That’s what I’m trying to get more insight on—whether the discretion in the PPM allows this kind of price inconsistency, or whether I might have a basis to push back further.

greytoc

It really depends on the fund. This sounds like a small feeder fund. I personally would never invest in this way unless I had a personal relationship with the fund manager. You are going to have to look through the offering circulars and look at what you signed up for... Was this a Reg-A offering originally? Or was it some sort of Reg-A+/CF offering.

Shot-Addendum-490

They are sneakily taking on AWS / GCP / etc with their cloud offerings. Workers seems like a direct comparison to Lambda, and CF continues to roll out more functionality.

trilogee

No debt maturities till 2028, leading margins, and one of the only tier 2s with positive CF/fcf. How do you figure?

Yolo-Mozz

Nearly all cameras require an SD card or a CF Express to record 4k-8k video. Plus, you still need a local drive to store raw photos and videos in order to edit them on software like Lightroom, Premier Pro, Final Cut, etc. Cloud storage is not an efficient way to store this data especially for creators who need to save their 4k videos somewhere. In many cases it takes 5+ hours to upload to google drive because these files are getting huge with the increase in camera quality (modern camera ranges between 25-45 megapixels per photo)