Reddit Posts
Put on Southwest. Or has the news been priced/Weighted in
Why I am bullish with Alaunos Therapeutics Inc $TCRT
Which Gas/Oil company is going to benefit most from renewable energy and will see growth in the next year?
TUP Bull Flag on buy volume increase
$FSR on the move, looks set to break out
$TUP is presenting a nice setup including some squeeze potential
SMFL MA5/MA15 Looking pretty good!
Alaska Energy is Moving Forward with Acquisitions and Sales (TSX-V: AEMC, OTCQB: AKEMF)
Caremax ($CMAX) - the next highly volatile highly speculative play
Equity Due Diligence Report: HippoFi, Inc. (ORHB)
$ORHB DD Report - Looking for 10-20% gains!
$ORHB DD Perspective - Add this to your watchlist!
Alaska Energy is Moving Forward with Acquisitions and Sales (TSX-V: AEMC, OTCQB: AKEMF)
Interview of James A. Mai and Ben Hockett from Cornwall Capital
Just inherited a substantial (to me) lump sum, any advice for long term (10+ year investments) outside of just index funds?
Don't get used to my 10/10 contributions. This is why I'm betting on Zoom $ZM on Monday market openning
Rockwell Automation Reports Strong Q4 Earnings and Upside Guidance for FY23
$CBDW Tapped .045 for high of day and well over the 50 day MA. Could see a push higher here during Power hour. Up over 20% on very nice volume. Company created a chatbot for ecommerce sites. Potential for some big licensing agreements in the near future.
Need some advice on how to execute an exchange in-kind trade
$CBDW Very nice move today. Up 58% With a strong break over the 50MA and moving to the top of the Bollinger band with strong buying in anticipation of the release of their AI Chatbot tomorrow. They have been undergoing testing for the past month with their distribution partner.
Integrated Cyber Solutions Is Your Disruptive Tech Play (CSE: ICS)
SP500 Technical Analysis & Trading Plan for 10/9/23
Ayr Wellness workers in MA on the verge of striking
UPDATE 27Sep2023 - SAFE/SAFER Actionable Progress through Congress (118th Congress - Session 1)
Is charge point back in action and ready to blow up ?
Powerdyne International Inc. Announces A letter to the Shareholders Update
UPDATE 15Sep2023 - SAFE Actionable Progress through Congress (118th Congress - Session 1)
Who has the AMCGME license plate in MA lol I saw you at the Westgate mall
Expect a 12-18 month rally for the cannabis sector. Leafly might be the 25-50x gainer you have dreamed of.
Wall Street Newsletter S03E03: "These Violent Delights Will Have Violent Ends" ( Part 1)
Leafly (LFLY) | Deep Value Gem with Major Regulatory Catalysts
SNDL closes above 200 Day Moving Average of $1.81. First time sp has closed above the 200 day MA in roughly Two Years.
SNDL closes above 200 Day Moving Average of $1.81. First time the sp has closed above 200 day MA in roughly Two Years.
Consumer credit card debt tops $1T - is there a storm brewing for V / MA?
Tracking Private Jets of SPAC Founders. SPAC Founder Vinod Khosla Private Jet Tracking. KVSA
Are They Gonna Save September? - Apple Wonderlust And ARM IPO
Regard Insight: The Moving Average of 200 weeks it's "Magic" 💡
BlockQuarry Announces Development of Revolutionary HPC (High Powered Computing) Mobile Data Center
Fair Isaac Corp. [$FICO] this stock will clobber the market in the next decade
Expected moves, SPY, QQQ, and Michael Burry's big short.
TLRY could potentially see huge squeeze shortly
U.S. House Advances Veterans’ Access to Medical Marijuana in Spending Bill
Mastercard Demands Shutdown of Marijuana Buys on Its Debit Cards - $MA
Q2 Sales Data Headset - never mind safe lets focus on Sales
$MRES Up 22% With some strong early buys coming in. Nice little cup and handle here on a very bullish chart. Beautiful set up here for a strong continuation this week and into next in my opinion with a nice ride along the ten MA. If you like biotechs this is one to watch.
Morning Briefing 🌞 July 11th 2023
Rebalancing Dilemma: Should I Adjust My Portfolio Now?
Analyze penny stocks charts like a pro with these tips
Morning Briefing 🌞 June 30th 2023
Does anyone here know who Arete Trading ? Not his IRL but YT shows. Looking for second opinions and similar content.
Third Round of Consumer Testing Strongly Validates Rapid Absorption and Effectiveness of Pressure BioSciences UltraShear Processed Nano-THC Oral Spray
Dynamic SNP500 Allocation based on Moving Averages - Almost beat the market?
Morning Briefing 🌞 June 23rd 2023
Global Technologies, Ltd. Signs Agreement to Acquire a Real Estate Holding Company
Morning Briefing 🌞 June 21st 2023
$PBTS Making a nice move here with a strong break over the 10 and 20MA and RSI sitting just over 40. Strong buy in this area with the uptrend just starting in my opinion. Telecom with a focus on China and SE Asia and with only 10 million on the float it moves pretty easy.
Opening a 529 for nephew. Whose name sold it be under?
$AGBA Looks like it's changing course and currently trending higher with a nice break over the 50MA and well above several other major moving averages. Moderate volume but with the constant updates from the company on social media and the huge market opportunities in China and SE Asia I like it here
$CEI News this morning has this moving higher on decent volume. Curling up nicely off the 1 dollar bottom and looks like this could be a pretty good reversal. By end of week we should have confirmation. We break over the 10MA it could be confirmed trend change. Keep an eye on it this week.
The relationship between QQQ and its 200 day moving average over time
Mentions
I don't know about the whole year, but for the moment buying more NFLX and V/MA. For NFLX I think that the market is really underestimating the chances of NFLX not getting WBD, and overestimating the risks of it not working out. And even if they don't ultimately get it at today's price who cares, they'd just be paying money to keep it from Paramount longer. On V & MA I think that people really overestimate the chances of the credit card interest rate cap passing, while also forgetting that V & MA don't loan money, it's the banks that would eat the loss from the lower interest rates.
$HOOD coming into the 200MA at $102, this isn't a bad play as long as earnings and all of the fear goes away in the next few months. I just think there's more room to go down before you shoot up. $102 200MA is target
Lol whatever. Drop to 50MA. Load. Bounce. Sell. *jerking motion*
$NOW Gonna crush earnings and chart bottomed at 200 weekly MA
Didn't want to hold META in case of another wall street knickers wetting from capex V/MA moon or good results and flat due to the looming issues ASML I think ran up too much and they don't usually give optimistic guidance so I think it'll drop
It's going to test the 200d MA at 102 first.
I'm in. Expecting a retrace to atleast 50 day MA.
GRRR is my favorite of the bunch. Great fundamentals and at the start of a new impulse count. I believe this runs to the 200 Day MA at $16 next, which is also the wedge breakout level. A breakout here and there is a lot of upside.
They have a lot of positive catalysts coming up. They priced in their abnormally high MCR. Any beat would cause PE expansion. By second quarter reports, they will have patients required to be referred to specialists as they are lax now. They are improving margins/paying down debt all the while keeping their revenue growth. Sure they'll lose some customers this year, but long term i like this stock. By September, the lower mcr and margin improvements maybe mainstream. Of course things could change if their earnings guidance disappoint. But im very optimistic short term as we JUST BROKE the 200MA bear trend. Pention funds and others alike will now participate. I have over 100k in options for 2027-2028. Im waiting for a catch up in price before sell short calls. Thats just me though, good luck with what you choose!
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/150e807/what_indicators_have_you_found_to_be_most_useful/ Impressive progress, especially with MA and TSI! To take it further, Prospero AI offers real-time AI-driven analysis of institutional trading and market trends, which can help refine your strategy and improve the accuracy of your trades.
Jamie Dimon had a great solution. Cap interest at 10% as an experiment in MA and VT in Sanders and Warren's state. If it works well and not a disaster we can do it everywhere.
UUUU has moved in the right direction, with true vertical integration by acquiring ASM (ASMMF, ASX:ASM), going full mine to metal across various REE. I'm a 2025 ASM bull so I'm glad to see this collab/MA happening, as it will propel both forward significantly in terms of business development, revenues, and resilience.
Just loaded up a little into ADP. Someone convince me not to full port into ADP. Chart looks good, it's sitting on major support around the weekly and monthly MA around 250. Earnings next week
I personnally reduced my exposition to US market to 20% from 50%. I would also recommend to look for alternatives to QUU or VTI that doesnt support MA-GA or republicans interests like ESGU, NULG or PRBLX.
I would recommend avoiding funds like QUU or VTI that supports MA-GA or republicans interests. You might consider alternatives like ESGU, NULG or PRBLX instead.
I live in the US. This isn’t going to stop a lot of people. I protest every event I can, I vote, I try to educate. Every single one of these things doesn’t matter to most people, even left wing. I live in one of the bluest states (MA) and most people LITERALLY can’t even afford to protest. I’m adopted from a third world country and I’m grateful because I ended up meeting my birth mother. She is in a much worse situation and I’m grateful that I did end up getting adopted. But it’s so incredibly difficult in America to actually get people to protest with you if they don’t have the same privileges I was adopted into. It’s about money and how much of it you have, anyone who has always had money OR not had money will never understand this because they’re too busy fighting each other to focus.
What about the implications of the Credit Card Competition Act and the recent backing of it? That seems far more concerning to V/MA than the cap on interest rates, and is getting BiPartisan support.
Pull up a daily chart numbnuts Everything either dumped to or past 50MA It’s either smash through or bounce Go down a watch list and you’ll find examples of both
Because the government has too much of a hand in the businesses that would be on the market. That enmeshment makes investing more difficult for the average person. Alibaba is the best example of that jack MA said some mildly critical things about the cccP which lead to a crack down. The government has golden shares as well. While the us under trump is heading a similar way, it isn't as enmeshed yet.
Well yeah but I was talking bout spy. Look at NVDA/AAPL/MSFT/AVGO/AMD/ORCL/V/MA
The 10% cap sounds scary but honestly - its unlikely to pass, and even if it does, Visa/Mastercard make most of their money from transaction fees, not interest. They’re payment rails, not lenders. The banks eat the interest rate risk, not V/MA. The EU payment system news is more interesting tbh. Thats been in the works for years tho and building network effects against Visa/MC is insanley hard. Look how long it took Apple Pay to even make a dent. Long term I’m still bullish. Global payments volume keeps growing, cash keeps dying, and these two basicaly own the duopoly. Short term volatility from political noise is usualy a buying opportunity.
No buys from me today. Still waiting and reading the news. Many stocks have fallen below 50day MA so looks like a time for more red. Unless we get a recovery ( rare when 50day below). Hoping to get some good deals on $AMZN & $META calls at 2-3% lower from here. Also looking at a big position in shares for long $MSFT Made about 20% on $SNAP puts that i sold today - so now 98% Cash and ready to go.
That’s why it’s a lagging indicator. I’ve been nailing BTC TA consistently using trends and 50/200 MA. Px history open for confirmation.
If it passes (which is unlikely) it could mean less access to credit for many consumers, and therefore lower transaction volumes, which would affect V/MA.
Im looking at INTU FICO CRM V and MA to buy at these price points also PATH as a speculative play what are you guys looking at currently?
"MasterCard that have been impacted with Trump's announcement on credit cards 10% cap on interest rates?" V/MA aren't the ones charging interest they are networks/"toll roads."

You're not missing anything obvious. Here's the data: **PYPL 8-Quarter Margin Trend:** | Quarter | Revenue | Gross Margin | Op Margin | |:--------|--------:|-------------:|----------:| | Q4 2023 | $8.0B | 45.8% | 21.5% | | Q1 2024 | $7.7B | 45.0% | 15.2% | | Q2 2024 | $7.9B | 45.8% | 16.8% | | Q3 2024 | $7.9B | 46.6% | 17.7% | | Q4 2024 | $8.4B | 47.0% | 17.2% | | Q1 2025 | $7.8B | 47.7% | 19.6% | | Q2 2025 | $8.3B | 46.4% | 18.1% | | Q3 2025 | $8.4B | 46.0% | 18.1% | Revenue stable, margins improving from 45% to 47% gross. Not a dying business. **Why the discount:** 1. **Apple Pay / Google Pay competition**: Mobile payments commoditizing 2. **Venmo monetization**: Still unclear how to make money on P2P 3. **BNPL (Afterpay/Klarna)**: Taking checkout share 4. **Management turnover**: CEO changes create uncertainty **Valuation check:** | Metric | PYPL | V | MA | SQ | |:-------|-----:|--:|---:|---:| | P/E | 11.5x | 30x | 35x | 50x | | Gross Margin | 46% | 80% | 100% | 33% | | Revenue Growth | +7% | +10% | +12% | +15% | PYPL is cheapest but lowest growth. V/MA have better margins (network effects). **My take:** At 11.5x P/E with improving margins, downside seems limited. But upside requires: 1. Venmo monetization success 2. Market share stabilization 3. Management proving execution At $58 average, you're paying fair value for a "good enough" business. Not a steal, not a trap. The -85% from ATH was warranted. That ATH was 2021 bubble pricing.
Not really... SPY is under the 50 day MA, and next level down is 671, then 650. Hope your parachute is packed...
based on different data like MA,SMA etc
Nasdaq futures dropping \~400 pts (to \~25,290) signals profit-taking or macro jitters, but panicking at gaps is classic trap; futures whipsaw pre-open. Fade extremes with limit orders at VWAP, risk 0.5% max; hold core longs unless 50-day MA (25,530) breaks.
The market isn’t random is one of the first things you will discover after viewing charts long enough. Then you discover cycles and repeating patterns. Then from there MA crosses predicting price moves. Then waves and fibs. Before long you see everything. Is based on math and follow a programming with some noise thrown in. Then you discover news isn’t random either. It comes out to make it look like it was the news that caused the movement but from reading charts you know it was gonna happen anyways. So the news is obviously fake and made to fit the narritive of the market when needed. Then you start wondering how much of this matrix is actually real or just a simulation that you’re slowing decoding. Once you know all these things you can never look at anything or the world the same way. It’s actually pretty heavy and takes a toll on you but I use this information to my advantage to help me. My family. And others. I’m not on this earth to get rich at others expense. I’m on here to expose the reality of what is really happening not what they gaslight us with 24x7. I miss the days of three tv channels but I will continue on for my grandchildren. The wealthy in control might think we are their little playthings that they can take advantage of and slowly take everything from us and we’re non the wiser. I see what they are doing. I know others also see. Unregulated capitalism only benifits the wealthy and they are basically going for the kill shot. There is no jobs and you don’t hear a single peep from our wealthy leaders on fixing any of the issues. Tiring healthcare to slave wage jobs…. Nice but obvious. Giving raises that don’t except the COLA every year. Year that’s why after 18 years at a bank I was like F this. The American dream is dead because of Reagan and all these greedy sob. I hate them all. I will fight for others till the end. The smoke and mirrors of this matrix is being exposed buy the army of matrix seers. We will raise others up and not be part of their destruction or greedy selfish ways. That isn’t what life is about.
Not Europe! where ever will I get my butter [***croissants***](https://www.google.com/search?newwindow=1&client=firefox-b-1-d&hs=yOWU&sca_esv=d06c161d34a068f3&sxsrf=ANbL-n54F5do7hb6RKjxPooMQAbeb_w1MA:1768755631179&q=italian+croissants&spell=1&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjs5dyYyJWSAxWuQjABHXf3JkYQkeECKAB6BAgSEAE)***!***
lol imagine if EU restricts EU people trading US securities (ie only sell button) and start banning cesspits like X and RDDT as well as services like $VISA, $MA etc also ban ASML from selling advanced EUV machines to US and US affiliated companies. Also, dump dat dere US sovereign debt who said u need nukes? lmao 🍿🍿🍿
Thank you for this DD, this is not like your typical penny stocks, it actually looks like it's gathering strength. I wish I saw this a couple days ago when posted, it looks like it has potential. Interesting. From the Barron's article Jan 2nd: > *Without apraglutide, Ironwood has little but Linzess and a significant debt load, which FactSet calculates at $598.2 million as of the end of September. A major question is what will happen to Ironwood after Linzess begins to face generic competition in the U.S. in 2029.* The Barron's article came out shortly after Ironwood broke out of a cup & handle base on massive volume. It then pulled back to the 10 day MA and is finding support. All moving averages are crossed above. The FDA asked Ironwood to redo the phase 3 of apraglutide, which is part of what caused the big decline in 2024. Options chain only goes out to August... Some things I like about it, MarketSurge shows a high comp rating, accelerating earnings and sales, and a forward PE of 6. Earnings in 25 days. Your screenshot indicates you bot at 4.00... was that on January 9th or 10th when it tested the 10 day MA?
Second day in a row KITT has bounced off its 50MA of $1.06. There is resistance there. But if it pushes through it will gap up hard
Love to see ASTS continuing to climb after I exit. Stock is extremely extended from the 200MA so I sold. 48hrs later, stock is up another $12.
Yes it's AI slop, but it's the good stuff from Gemini 3 Pro: While the stock price didn't jump as high as you might expect after the 7:00 AM clinical news, the underlying "smart money" signals and whale activity tell a much more bullish story. If you look closely at the data from this morning, Friday, January 16, 2026, there are three specific signals that show institutional players are still accumulating, even if the price is currently consolidating. 1. The "Whale" Footprint: Unusual Call Options The biggest signal of "whale" activity didn't happen at 7:00 AM—it happened 48 hours ago. On Wednesday and Thursday, there was a massive surge in Call Option volume. Call volume hit over 26,000 contracts compared to just ~2,000 Puts. This indicates that institutional "whales" were betting on a major breakout before the Saudi and clinical news became public. Much of the buying pressure you saw today was these large players "delta hedging" or locking in their positions. 2. Institutional Volume Comparison Today’s volume is high, but it follows a massive 58.7 million share day yesterday. The Signal: When a stock has "back-to-back" high-volume days like this, it typically means institutions are swapping hands. Large funds often use "sell the news" moments (like the 7 AM release) to buy into the stock while smaller retail traders are selling to take quick profits. Technical Setup: Almost every major technical indicator (MA5, MA20, MA50) flipped to a "Strong Buy" this morning. This is the "green light" many algorithmic institutional funds use to begin automated accumulation. 3. "BioShield" Institutional Accumulation There is a specific reason why the stock is holding its gains rather than crashing back down: The Saudi Alliance. Analysts at D. Boral Capital and Jefferies noted this morning that the Saudi "BioShield" deal effectively turns ImmunityBio into a global infrastructure play, not just a biotech company. Institutional investors like this because it reduces the "binary risk" (the risk of the company failing if one drug trial goes poorly). They are now treating IBRX as a platform company.
SLV bears would probably make more money if they just longed SLV and held it until it dipped below 20 day MA. That’s how bullish the trend is right now
RDDT should bounce nicely from here (200-MA)
Looked into BLNE and notice a similar MA(21,50,200) pattern as the recent run up UAMY saw. Definitely has my eye. If you check it out let me know your thoughts. Starting to try the hard work so wouldn’t mind extra eyes 🤘 cool if no though
MSCI ACWI ex USA (Net MA Tax)
This is actually NOT dumb play based on the chart and technicals. Established downtrend and below 200MA, stock recovering back up but hitting strong resistance at 200MA and 100MA, earnings is 1/22/26 as catalyst. Fundamentals: airline businesses don't make money. High Capex but are a commodity means basically no growth. OP, I like your play and admire your big position.
$1.06 is the critical zone to break out for KITT. Pushing through the 200MA on good volume is super bullish
It seems like just as I’m making some money Trumpy says some dumb shit and it’s all gone. Destroyed my entire MA position.
NDX surfing that 50 MA. Needs to bounce off it or we're fucked
Yikes, seems like you’ve already had enough of the EPC Kool Aid! When Durbin passed, the banks said free checking accounts would disappear, along with debit rewards. I still have a free checking account, and I also have debit rewards with a bank that is covered by Durbin and would be covered by CCCA. [Southwest](https://www.southwestdebit.com/) and [United](https://www.united.com/en/us/fly/products/united-debit-card.html) also just announced their own debit card rewards programs. A literal Google search would show that debit card rewards programs [still very much exist](https://www.stash.com/learn/debit-card-rewards/#9-best-debit-cards-for-rewards-in-2025). Indeed you are right, routing over more cost-effective (and more secure) networks would cause [one of the most profitable industries in the U.S. economy](https://www.venasolutions.com/blog/average-profit-margin-by-industry) to make slightly less on interchange because they would have to compete with other independent networks to process payments. But forcing V/MA to compete with other networks would not eliminate banks’ rewards programs – in 2022, U.S. banks paid out [$41.1 billion](https://files.consumerfinance.gov/f/documents/cfpb_consumer-credit-card-market-report_2023.pdf) in credit card rewards but collected [$125 billion](https://files.consumerfinance.gov/f/documents/cfpb_consumer-credit-card-market-report_2023.pdf) in credit card interest and fees from consumers as well as [$160 billion](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48216) in swipe fees from merchants. In 2024, the Nilson Report stated that FIs collected over $187 billion in interchange fees... seems to me there's a bit of wiggle room there. You also have identified the most significant problem with the broken U.S. payments system and why it needs reform – as you note, V and MA "set" (AKA centrally price-fix) interchange fees on behalf of the hundreds of banks that issues their cards, meaning that the interchange fees issuers charge are completely insulated from competitive market forces. This is why we have some of the highest interchange rates in the world. Europe, Canada and Australia have all capped interchange fees to a fraction of what we pay (and still have rewards to boot), but as a reminder, the CCCA would NOT cap anyone's fees :) Finally, CCCA allows the covered card issuer to choose the alternative card network they put onto the card, of which there are about a dozen (“Joe’s network or whatever” is not one – notable examples include Star, NYCE and Shazam). According to the Federal Reserve, these independent, PIN-based (or single message) networks have [far less fraud](https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/payments-system-research-briefings/card-not-present-fraud-rates-in-the-united-states-after-the-migration-to-chip-cards/) than V/MA (or dual message) debit transactions. And, when Durbin passed, it was the first time that real security innovations were introduced into the U.S. debit market – for instance, Europe (where V/MA definitely operate) [transitioned to EMV cards](https://www.bankinfosecurity.com/advice-for-us-how-to-speed-emv-rollout-a-8552) long before the U.S. This is because V/MA as dominant market forces in the U.S. had no incentive to provide greater security measures until they were forced to compete under Durbin. Capitalism and competition is supposed to breed innovation, right?? Hopefully some of these receipts help shed a bit of light on how the U.S. payments system actually works for you!
All you need is MA’s and precious levels and you can run it up. Focus on $100-400 a day not those dice rolls. You can make that happen $50-$60 at a time.
$clov Clover Health nice jump Clover Health Investments, Corp. (Nasdaq: **CLOV**) ("Clover," "Clover Health" or the "Company"), today announced **53%** year-over-year membership growth in its Medicare Advantage (MA) PPO plans for the 2026 plan year. Following this strong Annual Enrollment Period (AEP), Clover enters 2026 with approximately **153,000 members**, reflecting disciplined growth primarily in core markets, with strong retention, supporting Clover's path toward expected full year 2026 GAAP Net Income profitability.
Should MSFT drop a little more, it’s such a no brainer stock to add to. 450 is the number I have in mind. Hoping for someone to fan some fire to get more of a drop on Credit Card gang ( V, MA, COF, AXP, SYF) to pick 1-2 candidates.
Premiums on V and MA calls are gonna make it so I don't even want to try be right
You are spot on regarding the business model: Visa and Mastercard are the toll booths, not the lenders. They take a cut of the flow, they don't hold the default risk. However, from a macro perspective, there is a **Second Order Effect** you might be discounting: **Credit Contraction.** If issuers (Banks) have their interest margins capped at 10%, they will mathematically have to tighten lending standards. They will stop issuing cards to sub-prime or lower-tier borrowers because the capped return no longer covers the default risk. * Fewer cards issued + Lower credit limits = **Lower Total Payment Volume (TPV).** Since V and MA revenue is a function of volume, a contraction in the broad credit supply *does* hit their top line, just indirectly. The risk isn't "defaults"; the risk is "lower velocity of money." It may still be a buying op, but the market isn't pricing in "direct damage" to V/MA; it is pricing in a **Macro Credit Slowdown.**
They aren't down because of interest rate cap. Earlier this week some of the other retailers tanked (ANF, URBN, etc.) after ANF released updated guidance which shows a lot of softening in consumer retail demand. As a result of this, ANF tanked around 20%, URBN around 10%, and a few other consumer discretionary stocks sold off hard as well. Along with these you saw the same exact selling happening on credit card companies (V/MA/AXP) presumably because big money thinks that the credit card processors will have slowing transaction revenues due to the softening consumer.
So they have no credit, they go to debit. V AND MA still get the card swipes.
The street is not reacting to the 10%. Rightfully so since that affects banks not V/MA. They’re reacting because the Credit Card Competition Act (CCCA) was reintroduced and is endorsed by Trump this time. A bipartisan group has been trying to pass this for a few years unsuccessfully. It seeks to cap the rates merchants pay to accept credit cards. The proponents say this will lower costs for consumers, which is bullshit. Retailers like Walmart will picket the difference. What it will do is kill off your credit card rewards. Those are funded by that transaction fee. If you want more info: https://handsoffmyrewards.com
They can close credit cards , people will still use debit cards not cash, so I don’t think it matters to MA or V
It's hard because it's like Apple to Oranges, since it's a semi company vs payment processors. I like the valuation and story a bit more on MRVL, but it's kind of an AI play, so there is still risk in the capex cut. If you want long term, boring, compounders, that V/MA will probably make more sense, but which has probably a chance of a higher return, MRVL would probably be the name.
I'm eyeing MRVL too, debating whether or to buy that or V/MA after the recent pullback, what do you think?
Even though V/MA don’t charge interest, anything that pressures banks eventually flows through the payments ecosystem. That said, a 5% move feels exaggerated for a suggestion with low probability of passing. I’d be more concerned if interchange fees were targeted instead.
Ahh gotcha, I misunderstood your first post. I agree that with their transaction based model there isn't actually a threat to their business model with this proposed legislation. I'm assuming that people who are bearish on finance due to this proposed new law, have various situations in their minds about how card issuers will change their risk tolerance and therefore issue less cards. Therefor there will be less credit available to consumers, and people will spend less money. I imagine they also foresee that banks will profit less on credit cards, despite the fact that card issuers can modify which perks are given, and can modify the associated annual card fee structure. I also think this drop for V and MA is an over-reaction
The draw down on V/MA today is because he was going after transaction fees, not the interest rates.
I ran some scenarios with AI, and what interests me is that banks have a 4-5% balance charge off rate, and have a 4-5% overhead. At 10% interest rate banks would break even on credit cards. AI suggests that it could be as high as a 5% decline in spend from subprime borrowers on their credit cards with the loss of about 15m credit card subscribers. The scenario suggest this would be a $120bn blow to banks on credit interest, as well as a $3bn blow to V/MA total revenues. That would ultimately result in a $300bn hit directly to consumer spending, which is the largest single line item of GDP calculation. Donald, you can ask these questions to your pal's Grok AI to run this scenario. This isn't hard to do now.
V & MA are quite sticky. There are additional benefits and perks. It's also good for international travel. Europe will announce stuff but at the end, Visa and Mastercard are just miles ahead in payment processing.
And then after their risk tolerance is adjusted to accept a different threshold for risk based on fico scores.... What happens next? The idea for a bearish effect on the finance sector is what...? That consumers will stop spending money, that financial transaction volume will go down because of this? Based on your logic, When companies stop offering credit to consumers the consumers will somehow stop spending money? I fail to see how people will stop spending money from this. Regardless of the banks risk threshold for issuing credit, people will still spend money on consumer staples and other things they want to buy. I doubt that this will be the determining factor that lowers the volume of transactions in a way that moves the needle for V, MA.
No way, the markets crash now when Netflix, meta, apple are all below 100D MA when SPY is close to ATH
Why V & MA? Europe announced a new non American payment system , wont they lose millions of European customers when this launches?
You are missing something. Lower interest rates -> not worth it for issuers to offer credit cards to riskier ppl anymore -> fewer cards out there -> fewer transactions on V/MA networks
Which has the most upside out of COF, AXP, SYF, V, MA? This trump tantrum is a big ol' buying opp
JPM is the one who would eat the loss from lower credit card interest rates. It's not V and MA that does it.
Moving away is a global trend and V and MA still report around two-digit percent growth in payment volumes. Magic!
Your premise may be true, but remember these stocks are overpriced compared to where they usually are. They don't need "real" news for them to drop. I used to follow MA closely because I stupidly bought a put on them. They'd go up every day on no news then have been levitating up here for close to a year. Would not buy even with free money
Even if it passes I think the impact to MA is overblown. Payment transactions are going to continue either way.
Loading back up on MA. Total overreaction by the market.
I guess people figure if the 10% cap happens a lot of cards will get canceled or frozen. The issuing banks have more to lose in revenue than V and MA who make the bulk on transaction fees anyway.
Why are V and MA selling off today but not yesterday?
V and MA getting beat up, looking tempting
Rip to Visa and MA holders... Oh I'm one of them FML.
V and MA going to the hell
He's doing what he thinks will get votes for November, he doesn't care if its actually a net positive or negative. That said I still think V and MA are great businesses, I'm not selling on this news.
Wouldn't lower rates mean fewer credit cards in general? Some people are too risky to lend to at 10% and those people may no longer be approved. Which means less in transaction fees for V and MA? I donno
If cc interest rates get capped, less cards will be issued. Card member growth is huge part of the value of businesses like V and MA. Their dominance over transaction fees remains, but it would lead to less volume
V and MA down today because of Trump's proposed credit card interest makes zero sense to me at all. Visa and Mastercard make money on transaction fees, and if anything a cap on credit card interest would spur more credit card usage not less. Do people just hurr durr credit cards and sell of V and MA and not consider that capping credit card interest would mean more money for V and MA?
AXP might be the bigger opportunity. MA/V didn't sell off much, as expected. AXP down about 5%.... interesting.
The credit cap stuff is so dumb, lost like all the gains in SYF lol. Still holding and thinking about taking a position in AXP/MA.
The drop on V and MA is dumb considering that they don't make money off of interest, they process the data. But I'm dumb so I'ma scoop up some cheaper V calls
I'd say markets are starting to ignore what Trump says. If not daily, not even a week and we will see AXP, V, MA... defense... up again
MA and V both down less than 2% Any better options to look at?
There was a dichotomy, largely based on region (e.g., MA GOP governors), that still persisted until Trump took back the party in 2023/24. It’s basically extinct now.
V, MA JPM, APX fucking woof
This is going to drop until we touch 200MA
V and MA flushing, let’s see if this holds lower during the week. I doubt it
it's illegal in a handful of states (NY, CA, CT, ME, MA) but otherwise yea merchants in general are starting to do this more.