MA

Boognish_Theory

Looked into BLNE and notice a similar MA(21,50,200) pattern as the recent run up UAMY saw. Definitely has my eye. If you check it out let me know your thoughts. Starting to try the hard work so wouldn’t mind extra eyes 🤘 cool if no though

3boobsarenice

MSCI ACWI ex USA (Net MA Tax)

TheFailologist

This is actually NOT dumb play based on the chart and technicals. Established downtrend and below 200MA, stock recovering back up but hitting strong resistance at 200MA and 100MA, earnings is 1/22/26 as catalyst. Fundamentals: airline businesses don't make money. High Capex but are a commodity means basically no growth. OP, I like your play and admire your big position.

CadeCumminhand

$1.06 is the critical zone to break out for KITT. Pushing through the 200MA on good volume is super bullish

Icy_Essay2641

It seems like just as I’m making some money Trumpy says some dumb shit and it’s all gone. Destroyed my entire MA position.

rioferdy838

NDX surfing that 50 MA. Needs to bounce off it or we're fucked

Duckfacethrilla

Yikes, seems like you’ve already had enough of the EPC Kool Aid! When Durbin passed, the banks said free checking accounts would disappear, along with debit rewards. I still have a free checking account, and I also have debit rewards with a bank that is covered by Durbin and would be covered by CCCA. [Southwest](https://www.southwestdebit.com/) and [United](https://www.united.com/en/us/fly/products/united-debit-card.html) also just announced their own debit card rewards programs. A literal Google search would show that debit card rewards programs [still very much exist](https://www.stash.com/learn/debit-card-rewards/#9-best-debit-cards-for-rewards-in-2025). Indeed you are right, routing over more cost-effective (and more secure) networks would cause [one of the most profitable industries in the U.S. economy](https://www.venasolutions.com/blog/average-profit-margin-by-industry) to make slightly less on interchange because they would have to compete with other independent networks to process payments. But forcing V/MA to compete with other networks would not eliminate banks’ rewards programs – in 2022, U.S. banks paid out [$41.1 billion](https://files.consumerfinance.gov/f/documents/cfpb_consumer-credit-card-market-report_2023.pdf) in credit card rewards but collected [$125 billion](https://files.consumerfinance.gov/f/documents/cfpb_consumer-credit-card-market-report_2023.pdf) in credit card interest and fees from consumers as well as [$160 billion](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48216) in swipe fees from merchants. In 2024, the Nilson Report stated that FIs collected over $187 billion in interchange fees... seems to me there's a bit of wiggle room there. You also have identified the most significant problem with the broken U.S. payments system and why it needs reform – as you note, V and MA "set" (AKA centrally price-fix) interchange fees on behalf of the hundreds of banks that issues their cards, meaning that the interchange fees issuers charge are completely insulated from competitive market forces. This is why we have some of the highest interchange rates in the world. Europe, Canada and Australia have all capped interchange fees to a fraction of what we pay (and still have rewards to boot), but as a reminder, the CCCA would NOT cap anyone's fees :) Finally, CCCA allows the covered card issuer to choose the alternative card network they put onto the card, of which there are about a dozen (“Joe’s network or whatever” is not one – notable examples include Star, NYCE and Shazam). According to the Federal Reserve, these independent, PIN-based (or single message) networks have [far less fraud](https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/payments-system-research-briefings/card-not-present-fraud-rates-in-the-united-states-after-the-migration-to-chip-cards/) than V/MA (or dual message) debit transactions. And, when Durbin passed, it was the first time that real security innovations were introduced into the U.S. debit market – for instance, Europe (where V/MA definitely operate) [transitioned to EMV cards](https://www.bankinfosecurity.com/advice-for-us-how-to-speed-emv-rollout-a-8552) long before the U.S. This is because V/MA as dominant market forces in the U.S. had no incentive to provide greater security measures until they were forced to compete under Durbin. Capitalism and competition is supposed to breed innovation, right?? Hopefully some of these receipts help shed a bit of light on how the U.S. payments system actually works for you!

Kind-Shoe593

All you need is MA’s and precious levels and you can run it up. Focus on $100-400 a day not those dice rolls. You can make that happen $50-$60 at a time.

Bittygirl707

$clov Clover Health nice jump Clover Health Investments, Corp. (Nasdaq: **CLOV**) ("Clover," "Clover Health" or the "Company"), today announced **53%** year-over-year membership growth in its Medicare Advantage (MA) PPO plans for the 2026 plan year. Following this strong Annual Enrollment Period (AEP), Clover enters 2026 with approximately **153,000 members**, reflecting disciplined growth primarily in core markets, with strong retention, supporting Clover's path toward expected full year 2026 GAAP Net Income profitability.

tired_ani

Should MSFT drop a little more, it’s such a no brainer stock to add to. 450 is the number I have in mind. Hoping for someone to fan some fire to get more of a drop on Credit Card gang ( V, MA, COF, AXP, SYF) to pick 1-2 candidates.

Hot-Pop-3250

Premiums on V and MA calls are gonna make it so I don't even want to try be right

TWSTrader

You are spot on regarding the business model: Visa and Mastercard are the toll booths, not the lenders. They take a cut of the flow, they don't hold the default risk. However, from a macro perspective, there is a **Second Order Effect** you might be discounting: **Credit Contraction.** If issuers (Banks) have their interest margins capped at 10%, they will mathematically have to tighten lending standards. They will stop issuing cards to sub-prime or lower-tier borrowers because the capped return no longer covers the default risk. * Fewer cards issued + Lower credit limits = **Lower Total Payment Volume (TPV).** Since V and MA revenue is a function of volume, a contraction in the broad credit supply *does* hit their top line, just indirectly. The risk isn't "defaults"; the risk is "lower velocity of money." It may still be a buying op, but the market isn't pricing in "direct damage" to V/MA; it is pricing in a **Macro Credit Slowdown.**

Weaves87

They aren't down because of interest rate cap. Earlier this week some of the other retailers tanked (ANF, URBN, etc.) after ANF released updated guidance which shows a lot of softening in consumer retail demand. As a result of this, ANF tanked around 20%, URBN around 10%, and a few other consumer discretionary stocks sold off hard as well. Along with these you saw the same exact selling happening on credit card companies (V/MA/AXP) presumably because big money thinks that the credit card processors will have slowing transaction revenues due to the softening consumer.

RedShirtPete

So they have no credit, they go to debit. V AND MA still get the card swipes.

Jack-Burton-Says

The street is not reacting to the 10%. Rightfully so since that affects banks not V/MA. They’re reacting because the Credit Card Competition Act (CCCA) was reintroduced and is endorsed by Trump this time. A bipartisan group has been trying to pass this for a few years unsuccessfully. It seeks to cap the rates merchants pay to accept credit cards. The proponents say this will lower costs for consumers, which is bullshit. Retailers like Walmart will picket the difference. What it will do is kill off your credit card rewards. Those are funded by that transaction fee. If you want more info: https://handsoffmyrewards.com

ReceptionFantastic25

They can close credit cards , people will still use debit cards not cash, so I don’t think it matters to MA or V

_hiddenscout

It's hard because it's like Apple to Oranges, since it's a semi company vs payment processors. I like the valuation and story a bit more on MRVL, but it's kind of an AI play, so there is still risk in the capex cut. If you want long term, boring, compounders, that V/MA will probably make more sense, but which has probably a chance of a higher return, MRVL would probably be the name.

AzureRainnn

I'm eyeing MRVL too, debating whether or to buy that or V/MA after the recent pullback, what do you think?

Muted-Hotel-6188

Even though V/MA don’t charge interest, anything that pressures banks eventually flows through the payments ecosystem. That said, a 5% move feels exaggerated for a suggestion with low probability of passing. I’d be more concerned if interchange fees were targeted instead.

Leroy--Brown

Ahh gotcha, I misunderstood your first post. I agree that with their transaction based model there isn't actually a threat to their business model with this proposed legislation. I'm assuming that people who are bearish on finance due to this proposed new law, have various situations in their minds about how card issuers will change their risk tolerance and therefore issue less cards. Therefor there will be less credit available to consumers, and people will spend less money. I imagine they also foresee that banks will profit less on credit cards, despite the fact that card issuers can modify which perks are given, and can modify the associated annual card fee structure. I also think this drop for V and MA is an over-reaction

gnusm

The draw down on V/MA today is because he was going after transaction fees, not the interest rates.

rainman_104

I ran some scenarios with AI, and what interests me is that banks have a 4-5% balance charge off rate, and have a 4-5% overhead. At 10% interest rate banks would break even on credit cards. AI suggests that it could be as high as a 5% decline in spend from subprime borrowers on their credit cards with the loss of about 15m credit card subscribers. The scenario suggest this would be a $120bn blow to banks on credit interest, as well as a $3bn blow to V/MA total revenues. That would ultimately result in a $300bn hit directly to consumer spending, which is the largest single line item of GDP calculation. Donald, you can ask these questions to your pal's Grok AI to run this scenario. This isn't hard to do now.

Hobojoe-

V & MA are quite sticky. There are additional benefits and perks. It's also good for international travel. Europe will announce stuff but at the end, Visa and Mastercard are just miles ahead in payment processing.

Leroy--Brown

And then after their risk tolerance is adjusted to accept a different threshold for risk based on fico scores.... What happens next? The idea for a bearish effect on the finance sector is what...? That consumers will stop spending money, that financial transaction volume will go down because of this? Based on your logic, When companies stop offering credit to consumers the consumers will somehow stop spending money? I fail to see how people will stop spending money from this. Regardless of the banks risk threshold for issuing credit, people will still spend money on consumer staples and other things they want to buy. I doubt that this will be the determining factor that lowers the volume of transactions in a way that moves the needle for V, MA.

Ok_Cry7572

No way, the markets crash now when Netflix, meta, apple are all below 100D MA when SPY is close to ATH

ninjawasp

Why V & MA? Europe announced a new non American payment system , wont they lose millions of European customers when this launches?

Euphoric_Environment

You are missing something. Lower interest rates -> not worth it for issuers to offer credit cards to riskier ppl anymore -> fewer cards out there -> fewer transactions on V/MA networks

Able_Show_8560

Which has the most upside out of COF, AXP, SYF, V, MA? This trump tantrum is a big ol' buying opp

ShadowLiberal

JPM is the one who would eat the loss from lower credit card interest rates. It's not V and MA that does it.

markovianMC

Moving away is a global trend and V and MA still report around two-digit percent growth in payment volumes. Magic!

Available-Range-5341

Your premise may be true, but remember these stocks are overpriced compared to where they usually are. They don't need "real" news for them to drop. I used to follow MA closely because I stupidly bought a put on them. They'd go up every day on no news then have been levitating up here for close to a year. Would not buy even with free money

fuckbrocolli

Even if it passes I think the impact to MA is overblown. Payment transactions are going to continue either way.

No_Zookeepergame_27

Buy V, MA?

Undecisive117

MA going crazy

fuckbrocolli

Loading back up on MA. Total overreaction by the market.

tomtim90

I guess people figure if the 10% cap happens a lot of cards will get canceled or frozen. The issuing banks have more to lose in revenue than V and MA who make the bulk on transaction fees anyway.

No_Zookeepergame_27

Why are V and MA selling off today but not yesterday?

kim82352

what's going on with MA and V ?

FalconsBlewA283Lead

V and MA getting beat up, looking tempting

LumpyShock9656

Rip to Visa and MA holders... Oh I'm one of them FML.

alone-in-the-chat

V and MA going to the hell

Sgsfsf

Getting crushed. My portfolio consist of META, AMZN, MSFT, MA, SPGI, FICO, and NFLX… already underperforming Sp500 and Nasdaq

PrinceDuneReloaded

He's doing what he thinks will get votes for November, he doesn't care if its actually a net positive or negative. That said I still think V and MA are great businesses, I'm not selling on this news.

pateyhfx

Wouldn't lower rates mean fewer credit cards in general? Some people are too risky to lend to at 10% and those people may no longer be approved. Which means less in transaction fees for V and MA? I donno

PrinceDuneReloaded

If cc interest rates get capped, less cards will be issued. Card member growth is huge part of the value of businesses like V and MA. Their dominance over transaction fees remains, but it would lead to less volume

rainman_104

V and MA down today because of Trump's proposed credit card interest makes zero sense to me at all. Visa and Mastercard make money on transaction fees, and if anything a cap on credit card interest would spur more credit card usage not less. Do people just hurr durr credit cards and sell of V and MA and not consider that capping credit card interest would mean more money for V and MA?

creemeeseason

AXP might be the bigger opportunity. MA/V didn't sell off much, as expected. AXP down about 5%.... interesting.

_hiddenscout

The credit cap stuff is so dumb, lost like all the gains in SYF lol. Still holding and thinking about taking a position in AXP/MA.

arbitraryBlue

The drop on V and MA is dumb considering that they don't make money off of interest, they process the data. But I'm dumb so I'ma scoop up some cheaper V calls

BernardoDeGalvez

I'd say markets are starting to ignore what Trump says. If not daily, not even a week and we will see AXP, V, MA... defense... up again

Negative_Win_5117

MA and V both down less than 2% Any better options to look at?

ClarkFable

There was a dichotomy, largely based on region (e.g., MA GOP governors), that still persisted until Trump took back the party in 2023/24. It’s basically extinct now.  

Frozen_Shades

V, MA JPM, APX fucking woof

sami_regard

This is going to drop until we touch 200MA

DoubleFamous5751

V and MA flushing, let’s see if this holds lower during the week. I doubt it

jek39

it's illegal in a handful of states (NY, CA, CT, ME, MA) but otherwise yea merchants in general are starting to do this more.

Ok_Cry7572

Guess how much gap down financials on Monday. $V, $MA, $AXP. Time to rotate back to Tech?

PM_ME_YOUR_IBNR

If this 10% APR cap on credit cards tanks V and MA on Monday morning I'm gonna have to full port calls ahead of TACO Tuesday

ApesAPoppin237

Been going more on the 10 day MA in general but also day trading when I can get away with it...UUUU is just so volatile there's plenty of fun to be had regardless of strategy really.

DeepValueDiver

It seems to pretty consistently follow technicals without morphing into something else. I missed a lot of the run up by waiting for it to close above the MA but I wanted a tight stop without much risk up getting whipsawed right away. It really rallied into the 50 day which made it a no brainer too.

SE_Haddock

What you can do is go to Yahoo Finance and check 1y Target Est. Then pray the analysts know anything useful and no macro event happens. Or just do the smart thing and buy VT, if you want to beat the market just leverage it 10% on a downturn below MA200.

TWSTrader

**This doesn't lower rates for the working class; it deletes their credit limits.** I spent 14 years on institutional desks, and whenever a "Price Ceiling" is introduced into a credit market, the result is always **Credit Rationing**, not "Cheaper Loans." **1. The "Risk-Adjusted" Math** Banks charge 22%+ because the default rate on unsecured consumer debt is high. * If you cap the reward at 10% but the risk remains the same, the math no longer works for the bottom 50% of borrowers. * **The Result:** Banks won't lower the rate to 10% for a risky borrower. They will simply **close the account.** * We saw this with "Usury Caps" in the 1970s. Supply of credit vanishes for everyone except the super-prime borrowers (who already pay low rates). **2. The Ticker Impact** * **Safe:** **Visa (V) / Mastercard (MA).** They are toll roads; they don't hold the debt. They just swipe fees. * **Kill Zone:** **Synchrony (SYF), Capital One (COF), Discover (DFS).** These are the lenders who hold the actual balances. If they are forced to reprice their loan books to 10%, their Net Interest Margin (NIM) collapses, or they have to slash their loan book by 40% overnight. **My Verdict:** This is deflationary. If you suddenly cut off the credit cards of 50 million Americans because they are no longer "profitable" to lend to at 10%, consumption crashes. I would be looking to short the **Subprime Lenders (SYF)**, not the payment networks.

ShadowLiberal

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that he doesn't have the authority to do this at all. Also despite what OP said when quoting an article, it's actually the banks that charge those interest rates, and NOT the credit card companies. V and MA aren't hurt if you default on your credit card payments because they don't loan you the money.

HelpMePlease2322

Was thinking more the lines of $V, $MA, $AXP, but I agree

HelpMePlease2322

I agree. I hold $MA.

IllBuyYourCar

Oh absolutely, I made plenty profit with swing trades and leaps all year, then got hammered in October lol. Got back in a couple weeks ago for 11.5 avg The 50/200MA have met with some momentum, so thinkin I did pretty good. Going to hold out and see how this year goes

cbusoh66

This is so fucking funny, oil companies don't want anything to do with Venezuela 🤣🤣🤣 [Trump Presses Oil Executives to Invest in Venezuela—but Gets Lukewarm Reception](https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/trump-presses-oil-executives-to-invest-in-venezuelabut-gets-lukewarm-reception-6e4efd78?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqftzReP8ZJHYR6qmO5kZFkdhnlyi-yaYZV2ulBSXfHV50NQhlvbF9Fr&gaa_ts=6961a60d&gaa_sig=XRHODE2pTpJQkr8MVyrbGi1pjkvn76TCKCYYFZE7k3LcoZX8WFw_HNNWLBTWKtjdX7fQs_FpxGdBxheUgka-MA%3D%3D) [Exxon CEO calls Venezuela ‘uninvestable’ without ‘significant changes’](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-09/trump-pressures-big-oil-for-100-billion-venezuela-investment?srnd=homepage-americas&embedded-checkout=true)

StopBitchinStartLivn

Given the recent episodic pivot I probably would’ve trailed the 10 MA and watched how the structure rolled out. However, you made no wrong choice in taking profit. You’ll have an opportunity to rebuy if it sets up again and If not - Capital preservation is the name of the game. You won this trade.

BLESSED_NOT_PRESSED

Use Daily Chart When Screening For A Stock Pick. Have a Fibonacci Retracement drawn from prior low-high trend to see where the current price sits vs the highest point it’s retraced recently. Always draw a trend line and trend break/trend safety. 20/50 - Cross of MA indicates a big move in either direction. 200 Moving Average On Daily Timeframe Is Usually Where You’ll See A Bounce. This is where smart money buys in. For example I scalped 66% on AAPL an hour ago - how did I decide AAPL? S&P/Index’s Moving Upwards, While AAPL Since December 3rd hitting a high a $286 but has been retracing down to $256 ($30 Per Share). Today - On the daily charts we see 20 SMA * CROSS* the 50 SMA. The stock has already moved down -$30 Per Share Since the high of $286. I have a trendline drawn showing the Ascending Channel Over The Past few months. I saw the MA cross @ 20 and 50, Saw AAPL sitting right on the lower band of the Ascending Channel. I waited for a break in channel and retest - and entered $255 Calls. +67% trade in 15 minutes. Seperately I calculate a stocks intrinsic value based off their financials and based off my calculations - the 200 SMA price ($240) is not going to happen. AAPL intrinsic value I calculated was $260-268. That’s how I found confluence to enter this trade

zuziannka

Some unc came and started giving me elite ball knowledge about charts. He said to put MA 20 and MA 50 and trade with them.

Suitable_Air_2686

The only advantage Circle has is in international transactions. Much of their income comes from short term treasuries which are coming down in rates as fed is cutting. Risk reward favours sticking to Visa, MA and maybe PYPL.

JennaTulwartz

I’ve been to 42 and Cali is the best. Then MA. Then Hawaii, even though they’re barely a state.

mathboom123

SPY is literally between MA10 and MA50 on 4HR

AdMaterial7462

Come On US TECH shit stocks. CES is YOUR MOMENT TO SHINE! All those BILLIONS spent and the best of CES awards from whoever the fuck goes to: Some shit Atlas robot made by Boston Dynamics which is OWNED by South Korea Robot dog...basically a fancier electronic Labubu AI soulmate app to jerk off to, so no need for OF subscription ANOTHER Roomba vacuum so Carlyle group and lose ANOTHER 100M in cockroach debt BEST AI: Lenovo + Motorola app, WUT? Just sharebuyback at this point bro....GIMME BACK MA MONEH!

ShankThatSnitch

You mean bounce off that lovely 100 weekly MA!

TablePretty1011

OCG reversal is coming, just a matter of when... seems to be holding low .02s , 200 and 50 MA curling up

GamerHaste

Hi everyone. I have a stock vest coming up which will be around $40k before taxes in MA. I'm 25 and single with no dependents and pay rent. I have a car with a 6.1% interest loan on it that has $20k left on it. I'm wondering if I should immediately take the proceeds from the stock vest and pay off the car? Is 6.1% APY high enough where it's worth it? I pay around $550 per month on it. I have a 6 month oh shit fund already in a HYSA and around $50k in the market (can be seen as a house down payment fund also) in SPY, URA, and gold. I'm really debating on these three options: 1. Sell all shares, pay off car loan, put the rest in SPY/URA/Gold. 2. Sell all shares, put all into SPY/URA/Gold 3. Hold company stock and hope it keeps going up (been doing good lately... up 5% on the week) Does anyone have any input? Looking for opinions I was leaning towards paying my car loan off and investing the rest and then setting up a $550 per month auto buy on SPY but I don't know if it's more worth to just put it all into the market. I'm not stressed about the loan so "peace of mind" doesn't really play a part (I have more in student (80k at 5.1%) loans already so it's not getting rid of debt for me)

GamerHaste

Hi everyone. I have a Amazon stock vest coming up which will be around $40k before taxes in MA. I'm 25 and single with no dependents and pay rent. I have a car with a 6.1% interest loan on it that has $20k left on it. I'm wondering if I should immediately take the proceeds from the stock vest and pay off the car? Is 6.1% APY high enough where it's worth it? I pay around $550 per month on it. I have a 6 month oh shit fund already and around $50k in the market in SPY, URA, and gold. I'm really debating on these three options: 1. Sell all shares, pay off car loan, put the rest in SPY/URA/Gold. 2. Sell all shares, put all into SPY/URA/Gold 3. Hold Amazon stock and hope it keeps going up (been doing good lately...) Does anyone have any input? Looking for opinions I was leaning towards paying my car loan off and investing the rest and then setting up a $550 per month auto buy on SPY but I don't know if it's more worth to just put it all into the market. I'm not stressed about the loan so "peace of mind" doesn't really play a part (I have more in student loans already so it's not getting rid of debt for me)

NecessaryEmployer488

I've lost tons of money in the market. Looking back, I wish I would have concentrated on a decent emergency fund early on. This would be 6 months to 1 year of expenses. As far as the market goes, I'm all in and am now in a higher tax bracket. What would be worthwhile when the market is high ( like 18% above the 200-day moving avearge and sell a third or two-thirds to buy back at the 50-day and 200-day MA with issues held longer that 1 year if you are in a high tax bracket. ), so you can buy back in lower. You should not have emergency money in the stock market. This was my mistake early on, for the sole reason you should not sell when the market has pulled back. You need the emergency fund to act as a buffer. Once stocks are back up you can sell to back fill your emergency fund.

Vegetable-Bug-9779

My last positions are NFLX, AMZN, META, MA, SPGI. I have posted my test on the in r/stockpickeranalysis

Vegetable-Bug-9779

I've recently invested in NFLX, AMZN, META, MA, SPGI. I've posted my thesis on them in r/stockpickeranalysis

music_is_gud

A relatively poor jobs report will probably be the only catalyst that can bring down MU back to its 50 MA at this point. Will provide a nice entry

explorer_soul99

The predatory lending thesis is sound but the stocks don't work: **BNPL Reality:** - Klarna: Private (can't buy) - Afterpay: Acquired by Block (SQ) in 2022 - Affirm (AFRM): **Still unprofitable** after years of operation The problem with "predatory" fintech is they're competing on customer acquisition, not milking existing customers. They lose money on every loan trying to grab market share. **Compare to actual predatory lenders (payday):** | Ticker | Company | Op Margin | Business | |:-------|:--------|:----------|:---------| | CURO | CURO Group | -15% | Payday lending | | WRLD | World Acceptance | 8% | Subprime installment | Even traditional payday lenders have compressed margins due to regulation. **The better "predatory" play:** Credit card companies (V, MA, AXP) that make money on interchange + interest. They're the actual winners of consumer debt - 50%+ operating margins and no regulatory pressure on their core business. Visa (V) has **67% operating margins**. That's more predatory than any BNPL app.

avilacjf

Far more concerned with picking stocks that are least likely to go down than those with the potential to skyrocket over a short period. Looking at UBER, NFLX, MA, LLY and FSLR right now.

InvestTradeEarn

Get into $MLEC for a run and halt up on Monday with their new 570K float after the RS.. then Grap $SIDU on it's next dip, it needs to correct to the MA and then take another run after that

explorer_soul99

Good technical read on UPS. Let me add fundamental context: UPS vs FDX Comparison: | Metric | UPS | FDX | |--------|-----|-----| | Price | $101.02 | $293.13 | | % Above 52wk Low | 22.33% | Mid-range | | Gross Margin | 18.77% | 21.60% | | Op Margin | 9.56% | 6.92% | | P/E | 14.94 | 17.28 | UPS actually has BETTER operating margin than FDX (9.56% vs 6.92%) but trades at a lower P/E (14.94 vs 17.28). That's the setup you want. Margin Trend Check (8 quarters): FDX margins bouncing around: 20.28% → 26.42% → 21.10% (volatile) Need to pull UPS specific margin data, but the P/E discount to FDX is notable. The Risk: At 22% above 52-week low, some of the tax-loss selling reversal may already be priced in. Compare to TTD (5% above low) or ADBE (7% above low) - those are closer to max pain. If earnings beat in Feb, UPS breaks through the 50-week MA you mentioned. Miss = retest $82. The lower P/E vs FDX gives margin of safety, but it's not a "sitting at the bottom" play like some others.

Ok_GAINZ

SPY is a proxy for SPX. If you follow price, SPX is going to be the better indicator for price levels. SPX 6850 aligns closer with SPY 680 so I would use that as an area of confluence. Also SPY’s 20 daily MA is around that level. Don’t just pick 685 cause it’s a 5. Find areas of confluence for your price levels.

avilacjf

I would not buy only from that list. NVDA GOOGL BABA CRWV NFLX FSLR LLY MA BN BRK.B

B0thS1desN0w

OKLO bounce at the 200 day MA

KyleKrocodile

I lost so much previously trying to catch puts. It's like you need a massive swing on news to recoup, I find it much easier to swing long calls based on analyst stock predictions for a year out. Even with that though I still get burned sometimes like I am right now with MA and V.

michael_mullet

I use VIX for estimating when a dip is completed for indexes. There's also breadth tools to validate like % of stocks above 50MA or new high vs new low. Alternatively, just rebalance between asset classes and that will move capital to dips and take profit on bull runs. I don't buy dips on individual stocks.

bordercollie2468

It just went on a big run recently and likely needs to pull back a bit. Pull up a 1day chart with the 200MA.

amanj41

Closed my 6905/6900 put credit spreads expeditiously when I noticed the last minute reversal. Opened them up beginning of the day, really seemed like it was going to pin to 05 or 10 right up until those last few minutes. I almost got fucked mega hard on that, but I’ve been extra vigilant since some 10 point drop last week (when I also thought it was going to be tightly range bound and pin to the daily MA)

Wickedmasshole77

In 2006, I bought shares of Mastercard IPO and Apple. I sold in 2008, made a nice profit, nothing life changing. If I just held and did nothing else, I’d be a millionaire today. If I sold MA & AAPL in 2012 and put the proceeds into TSLA and NFLX and just held, I’d be a multi millionaire. Hindsight is 20/20

KarinaOpelan

A lot of this comes down to lumping very different businesses into one fintech bucket. V and MA are basically toll roads, so the market already prices them as mature, low-risk infrastructure rather than growth. SCHW still trades like a financial and will stay tied to rates and balance sheet risk. PYPL, HOOD, and SOFI are priced on whether their models fully prove out, not on today’s value screens, this year especially, fundamentals took a back seat to narrative, and AI pulled most of the marginal capital, that doesn’t mean there’s no value here, it just means value hasn’t been the catalyst.

thinkneo

Both fundamentals and momentum, and that's what makes it tricky. The fundamental case is real: \- HBM is structurally different from regular DRAM. only 3 companies can make it (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). supply is genuinely constrained. \- AI demand isn't slowing, every data center buildout needs memory. \- last earnings showed they can actually capture this demand and charge for it. But memory is memory: \- every cycle looks like "this time it's different" until it isn't. \- oversupply is always one bad quarter away. \- at ATH, you're paying for a lot of good news already priced in. How I think about it: MU at these levels is a "right thesis, tricky entry" situation, the bull case is solid, but buying at ATH in a historically cyclical industry takes conviction. Practical approaches depending on your situation: \- already long: trim a bit, let the rest ride. \- want exposure: wait for a pullback to the 20-day or 50-day MA. MU pulls back 10-15% regularly, even in uptrends. \- want income while you wait: sell cash-secured puts at a strike you'd actually want to own. get paid to wait for a dip. \- full send: if you truly believe HBM changes the cycle, then ATH doesn't matter over 3-5 years, size appropriately. I'm in the "probably a stronger cycle than usual, but still a cycle" camp, not chasing here, but not bearish either. In my watchlist.

Vegetable-Bug-9779

While, I can't offer a professional advice, I can tell you what I am doing. Before I invest in any individual stock, I look into numbers. I check revenue, net and operating income,operaring margin, expenses, cash&debt, shares outstanding, free cashflow and more. If I like what I see, I put the company in my watchlist. Then every month I invest in a company from that watchlist where I see disconnection between price and fundamental metrics. I don't look into stories, they are usually short term noise. In the beginning of the year I invested in Google, AMAT, ASML, AMZN. In the last few months I bought more AMZN, SPGI, META, NFLX, MA. I am planning to hold for many years. If you want to see the way I make my research, you can check it in r/stockpickeranalysis. I am posting a lot there. I hope this helps. 10k is not that much money. This loss is something you can learn from. In 10 years you might be thankful for it. Good luck!

Barry8809

Alright, I also do some swing trading strategies. Looks like you're doing pretty well with it. MA analysis for support levels, and then buying close to those levels that’s one of my go-to indicators too. Then I use volume and the order flow to analyze things. Maybe we can share some ideas and see what each other thinks. What do you think?

Glum_Airport_6134

This is a portfolio you buy AFTER the market crashes not before, my opinion is this is something you would buy when the S&P pulls back below its 200day MA or greater and the VIx spikes above 35. If you get caught in a downturn with this portfolio in the next 3 years it will take 3-4x as long to recover

Ok_Attorney_1768

MA