XLE

BooDawg908

XLE?

Least-Ship-6967

XLE had a nice hop this morning on the news. Bit of a shitter otherwise.

drew-gen-x

The moves higher are justified for $HAL and $SLB. Both stocks had significantly under-performed the other $XLE stocks. The midstream pipeline stocks are a good buy too. The easy money to be made is always selling the picks & shovels for the oil "gold mines" so to speak.

okiewxchaser

It actually happens, a lot. $XLE for example, was back to pre-conflict prices less than five months after the Ukrainian invasion In this case, the prospect of the removal of sanctions of Venezuelan oil paired with the OPEC production increases is dropping energy prices rapidly

okiewxchaser

$XLE is primarily Chevron, Exxon and ConocoPhillips which means it’s responding to the Venezuela news $LNGX is down 2.5%, $XOP down 2%. So international energy is doing okay as shown by $XLE, domestic energy is taking a hit and will continue to until OPEC calms down

zbern

Short term noise is making me wish I had bought XLE leaps instead of XLU leaps back in early December. Still betting on the utility build out in the country over the next few years.

drew-gen-x

$XLE wouldn't be up over +2% this morning if that was the case.

okiewxchaser

XLE is heavily leveraged in Chevron and Exxon so that makes sense for the Venezuela play. I’m not confident enough that play is stable though Outside of Exxon and Chevron, I’m incredibly concerned about the impact on US Domestic Energy, especially paired with the OPEC+ news

drew-gen-x

Yeah, if you are not buying multiple names just buying $XLE might be the better buy for most. $BP has outperformed over the last 52 wks so today's dip doesn't really tell the story there.

nadavthe

I agree, Chevron is definitely the 'cleanest' way to play this right now given their license. I’m also looking at it as a tactical short-term play rather than a 'set and forget' investment. Are you keeping an eye on any specific energy ETFs like XLE, or are you staying away from the region entirely for now?

iannoyyou101

Shouldn't have sold some of my XLE calls friday

Pluth

Already had XLE which is heavily weighted for both of those.

Narrow-Ad-7856

I doubt the run will last. I'm considering selling my CVX and XOM and just buying XLE later on when prices drop again. Oil is very cyclical.

netikiru

What about XLE?

Appropriate_Golf5438

The capture of Nicolás Maduro and the subsequent U.S. intervention in Venezuela have unlocked the world's largest oil reserves, potentially increasing accessible supply 9-fold. To capitalize on this historic shift, focus on these picks: - Chevron (CVX): The primary beneficiary with the strongest existing footprint in Venezuela. - SLB & Baker Hughes (BKR): Critical for the multi-billion dollar rehabilitation of broken oil infrastructure. - ConocoPhillips (COP): Positioned to finally recover $8.7 billion in seized assets. XLE ETF: Best for broad exposure to the surging U.S. energy sector.

PotadoLoveGun

Futures, USO, XLE if this guy is right

Bam_Hero

Buy XLE or VDE. I wouldn’t try to buy individual names unless you have lots of time to understand individual companies

Recent_Newspaper4670

Exxon is the superior play. Chevron’s Venezuelan exposure is a capital-intensive rehabilitation project. Because infrastructure there has decayed since the Chavez era, immediate volume is a myth. Which means price drops won't kill dividends if margins hold. So, use the XLE for stability. It’s a bet on capital discipline, not just barrels.

c_t15

XLE is you want all big oil

MtnsRCalling_IMustGo

XLE may be the next silver

JakeSal10

XLE calls

Sea-Fishing4699

$XLE booming

BrainsOut_EU

It's kinda the other way around - OXY and the rest of XLE might benefit but from the extraction in Guyana, which was threatened by Venezuela and is on it's way to produce MORE oil than Venezuela ever has → bearish to oil prices long term as it helps the market stabilize an d increase production. Also the OXYs might eventually take over also Venezuelan oil sites/rafineries.

Express_Ad_772

USO tracks crude oil price XLE is energy stock etf Boil & kold track nat gas

FluffHead1964

XLE

TheDudeAbidesFarOut

XLE had a stock split. It's either gonna be exit liquidity or big dogs needed headroom to sell options...

Pluth

Buy XLE. Less oil supply equals higher prices.

Artistic-Western6342

Your tech concentration mirrors the Nifty Fifty era. Index-hugging hides structural rot. ITA’s exposure to Boeing’s industrial lag is a liability; PPA offers better depth. XLE works, but XOP provides the upstream leverage needed for a supply-constrained decade. JPM and UNH are the only logical anchors. Because history proves that in tightening cycles, quality and scale always outpace the index.

Pluth

XLE

SM2022and1

Great post, thanks! Vistra is on my watchlist. Currently have XLE and SLB leap calls for my energy plays. Also own Williams in my long hold stock basket.

nemean_lion

Is there a XLE equivalent for Canadian market?

creemeeseason

-RSP outperforms SPY. I love the setup for everyone not mag 7 this year. This is like the second or third try at this, so eventually I'll be right. -Energy outperforms the S&P. Let's just measure it as XLE beats SPY. -Software has a banner year. The whole AI will replace legacy software narrative has run it's course. Most of these software applications are so integrated into enterprise operations that they will not go away. -SPY is up more than 10% Self explanatory.

Pluth

I bought XLE when oil was 50/barrel

Fabulous-Transition7

It split recently. I made great returns of off XLE and a few other oil funds years ago swing trading oil when it was oversold. Now, as primarily an income investor, I'm bullish on XLEI.

TheJuntoT

Search ‘XLE ETF’ and tell me if it mentions a split.

thadcorn

No options, but buying XLE because no way these low oil barrel prices will have to jump in the future.

Sidney1973

We are going to war. XLE calls.

Sidney1973

PSQ and XLE calls

drew-gen-x

Silver is up 31% this month. Gold is up 7.4% over last month. I've made 5% over the last 30 days shorting $QQQ with $SQQQ even thou I timed my trades badly. Today my green positions are $HAL, $OXY, $IP, $MOS and of course gold. $XLE and $XLU are about to explode once people start to realize where is all this energy going to come from to pay for all these datacenters being built and what is actually needed to power AI consumption.

I_am_Nerman

XLE is ripping. Somebody got the script

DeeDee_Z

* I own a Toyota. They make lots of different kinds of cars -- big ones, small ones, SUVs, sporty, etc. * Nuveen makes lots of different mutual funds -- funds which invest in different things. * One such Toyota is a Camry. * One such Nuveen fund is a Target Data fund -- it's designed for someone retiring in 20xx. * There are several different classes of the Toyota Camry -- DL, LE, SE, XLE, etc. They offer different features, at different prices. * There are several different classes of the Nuveen Lifecycle 2055 fund -- A, C, I, R1, R6. They offer different features, at different prices. This is pretty basic stuff. Please try searching investing sites (investopedia, for example) for such intro-level material!

yeeetcoin

XLE, levered is GUSH.

Desmater

Buying XLE.

Pluth

Buying XLE was not the play today. At least I get a dividend.

Comfortable_Spray273

Careful with the “cheap stock = good for small accounts” idea — that’s how most beginners bleed out. What matters more than the stock price is: • liquidity (tight spreads) • consistent intraday movement • clean options chains For small accounts, a lot of sub-$100 names have: • wide bid/ask spreads • random volatility • thin options (you get killed on fills) Honestly, many people are better off trading liquid ETFs or index products instead of chasing cheap tickers. Examples: • SPY / QQQ → extremely liquid, tight spreads, tons of expirations • IWM → cheaper premium, still liquid • XL sector ETFs (XLF, XLK, XLE) → slower, cleaner moves If you do trade single stocks under $100, prioritize: • high average daily volume • tight options spreads (check before entering) • stocks that respect levels (not meme behavior) The biggest upgrade for small accounts isn’t what you trade — it’s how selective you are. Fewer trades, better fills, defined risk. Cheap contracts don’t help if the structure is trash.

Revfunky

Gold starts... Copper confirms... Lithium bridges... Oil follows. Gold > Copper > Oil. It happened in the 1980’s. It happened in the 2000’s. It happened in 2021. And it’s happening again. The XLE chart isn’t lying. It is sitting right at key levels- the same zone it stalled at in 2008, 2014, and 2022. If we clear that level it takes off. Oil is the last shoe to drop.

EmergencyFair6786

I'm missing out on parabolic runs because I'm an idiot. I'm dumping all my money in XLE, XLU, URA. Meanwhile companies that have never even turned a net profit are worth 2 to 3x XOM. 10x some of the major utilities. Baffling market 

Revfunky

This is my copy pasta as it was asked the other day somewhere. Gold starts... Copper confirms... Lithium bridges... Oil follows. Silver hit a high 11/13(?, damn close if not right) so the question is this a breakout or a fake out? Where I am from we treat stocks as global assets. So we have to zoom out a bit to delve deeper. China is ripping this year. Europe leads the pack. Latin America is also breaking out fresh multi-year highs. Meanwhile the U.S. has been the laggard. I remember 2011 well. Silver mania was wild. Once the bubble burst, silver collapsed 68%. The Silver Miners ETF (SIL) dropped more than 80%. Now here we are, back at the same level. It only took 14 1/2 years. Any chart you look at is price in U.S. dollars. That’s the American view. If you really want to gauge if this break out is real, you have to look how silver is doing around the globe. And in Euro, Silver has already taken out the 2011 highs. It's at its highest level ever. You're seeing the same thing across the board: Silver is making new all-time highs in British Pounds, Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, even Chinese Yuan. If Silver is already breaking out in every other major currency, it's hard to argue it won't eventually do the same in U.S. Dollars. That’s how I see it. ( I recently closed a Silver LEAP from 2024 for a 500% gain.) That’s the playbook we used with gold. Before gold broke out in USD, it was already hitting all time highs in other countries. That was the tell. I will dovetail from where I started. Gold miners, uranium, steel, copper, lithium... they're not just outperforming. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is up 140%. The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) is up nearly 84%. The SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME), the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX), and the VanEck Steel ETF (SLX) are all up between 74% and 78%. While the S&P 500 sits at plus 17%, commodities are screaming that the global market structure has already changed. Now look at the Energy Select SPDR Fund (XLE). Two years of consolidation, volatility compressed... sellers exhausted... resistance tested over and over. Every major energy move in history started this way: a fading dollar; commodity leadership; improving risk appetite; and a sector that spends years preparing for the next leg higher. XLE hasn't broken out yet. But everything around it already has. It’s the last domino. Breakout or not, the message is clear: This cycle is shifting toward real assets, hard assets, and energy. Now you know what I know.

TheDudeAbidesFarOut

XLE just did a split. Looking for liquidity and bagholders.

Revfunky

Gold starts... Copper confirms... Lithium bridges... Oil follows. Silver hit a high 11/13(?, damn close if not right) so the question is this a breakout or a fake out? Where I am from we treat stocks as global assets. So we have to zoom out a bit to delve deeper. China is ripping this year. Europe leads the pack. Latin America is also breaking out fresh multi-year highs. Meanwhile the U.S. has been the laggard. I remember 2011 well. Silver mania was wild. Once the bubble burst, silver collapsed 68%. The Silver Miners ETF (SIL) dropped more than 80%. Now here we are, back at the same level. It only took 14 1/2 years. Any chart you look at is price in U.S. dollars. That’s the American view. If you really want to gauge if this break out is real, you have to look how silver is doing around the globe. And in Euro, Silver has already taken out the 2011 highs. It's at its highest level ever. You're seeing the same thing across the board: Silver is making new all-time highs in British Pounds, Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, even Chinese Yuan. If Silver is already breaking out in every other major currency, it's hard to argue it won't eventually do the same in U.S. Dollars. That’s how I see it. ( I recently closed a Silver LEAP from 2024 for a 500% gain.) That’s the playbook we used with gold. Before gold broke out in USD, it was already hitting all time highs in other countries. That was the tell. I will dovetail from where I started. Gold miners, uranium, steel, copper, lithium... they're not just outperforming. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is up 140%. The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) is up nearly 84%. The SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME), the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX), and the VanEck Steel ETF (SLX) are all up between 74% and 78%. While the S&P 500 sits at plus 17%, commodities are screaming that the global market structure has already changed. Now look at the Energy Select SPDR Fund (XLE). Two years of consolidation, volatility compressed... sellers exhausted... resistance tested over and over. Every major energy move in history started this way: a fading dollar; commodity leadership; improving risk appetite; and a sector that spends years preparing for the next leg higher. XLE hasn't broken out yet. But everything around it already has. It’s the last domino. Breakout or not, the message is clear: This cycle is shifting toward real assets, hard assets, and energy. Now you know what I know.

TheDudeAbidesFarOut

XLE had a split today. Oil looking for bagholders.

Revfunky

In bull markets everyone gets a turn. That’s why understanding rotation and learning to adapt are so important. Remember how bad healthcare looked for so long? It felt like it underperformed forever. And with it Biotech stocks were left for dead. Now healthcare is one of the strongest groups in the market- and Biotech stocks are leading the way. Take a look at this three-month performance chart of U.S. indexes and sectors Equal-Weighted Biotech ETF (XBI) and the Market-Cap-Weighted Biotech ETF (IBB). If everyone gets a turn eventually energy will get its turn. Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK), which just finished October with its highest monthly close in history. Energy Sector ETF (XLE) - similar setup, but still stuck at the same levels it was back in the summer of 2008. I think it’s time will come. To survive in the market you have to adapt, or go extinct.

amanj41

XLE specifically or NG more specifically?

amanj41

Anyone playing nat gas for DC demand? Are XLE leaps retarded?

MomentSpecialist2020

Oil is cheap. XLE

Full-Passage4412

what do you think could mirror this trade in the stock market? USO? XLE? XOP? Or am I better off with individual oil stocks like COP, XOM, CVX?

MrT_IDontFeelSoGood

Oil holding up well. Crude, XLE, and EWZ are having good days so far. Oil hasn’t had a solid breakout this year so I’m skeptical but so far so good

Synchwave1

I’ve done the same, but through sector etf’s XLK,XLE,PRNT,XLP. As long as you’ve put thought into it and rebalance regularly enough you’ll be in good shape

Bostradomous

Not so much oil, more energy. Whatever software you use should be able to separate tickers by industry/sector. Could look through the stocks held in the XLE. I went long EOSE last Friday. On my watchlist is SLDP, NNE, WEC

MrT_IDontFeelSoGood

The “safe haven” asset classes are unique to every bear market or crash. In 2022 both stocks and bonds steadily fell, meanwhile XLE (energy stocks) skyrocketed +55% and the usd (UUP) made solid gains too. When liberation day hit everything went down except currencies against the USD. Safe haven currencies like the Swiss Franc and the Yen were the biggest gainers. The point is it’s different every time so unless you have a real edge in picking which asset classes to rotate in/out of at specific times, just stay invested in a diversified portfolio that makes sense for your age.

bobby-mein

The oil ETFs right now are generally all very similar, and way over indexed (IMO) on highly liquid large caps like Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, etc. For this reason I generally stay away from O&G ETFs and opt for individual stock selection. But, if you're just looking for an ETF for oil exposure you can go with XLE, VDE, IYE, etc. and get about the same thing in each one. Hope that helps!

W_Malinowski

Most energy companies are trading well below NAV. drill baby drill means nothing, the president can not force companies to drill wells. There’s huge underinvestment in the energy sector which will come home to roost in 2-5 years. The energy sector also has very high yields, and as short term rates come down people who rely on fixed income will buy in regardless of market conditions. You can already see that happening, XLE is flat ytd even as the economy is in the shitter. Now’s the time to accumulate the higher quality energy companies at a discount

MomentSpecialist2020

Silver for now. Start buying oil companies. Oil is cyclical. ENV ET etc now then XLE later.

pho_SHAten

SPY is starting to signal liquidity exit; financials and energy led the move. Price has been below the 20 MA for 6 days (9 days for XLF and XLE). Haven't seen this type of pattern since Feb 2025. the VIX spike proves institutions are buying downside protection. QQQ isn't bearish enough so i think it's just specific sectors that could get hit. if those sectors can't recover, the selling could escalate further.

Connect-Resolution-8

Look at the 10 year on XLE it's quite literally the hugest bull flag I've ever seen in my life. This is because of market manipulation from america and overproduction. When that baby rips, it's going to the moon. I've considered buying somes LEAPS 4 years out should do it. Look at the strong correlation to gold and oil as well.

Gainztrader235

Here’s what I do and most institutions. One effective way to protect a portfolio from downside risk is through the use of long-dated put options a strategy commonly employed by institutional investors. By purchasing puts on broad market ETFs like SPY (S&P 500), QQQ (Nasdaq-100), or even inverse ETFs such as SDOW (3x inverse Dow Jones), investors can establish a form of insurance against major drawdowns. These positions increase in value when the underlying market declines, offsetting losses in the long equity side of the portfolio. How It Works - A put option gives the holder the right—but not the obligation—to sell the underlying asset at a set price (the strike) before a specific expiration date. - Long-dated puts (LEAPS, or “Long-Term Equity Anticipation Securities”) can extend 6–24 months out, allowing more sustained protection without constant rolling. Key Considerations - Theta Decay: Option value erodes over time due to theta, especially as expiration approaches. The longer-dated the option, the slower this decay, but it still represents a cost of holding insurance. - Delta Exposure: The value of a put increases as the underlying price drops, but decreases if the market moves higher—so gains in your core portfolio typically offset these paper losses. - Volatility Impact: Rising volatility (VIX) during market stress boosts put premiums, enhancing hedge effectiveness. Strategic Implementation - Index Hedges: Buying SPY or QQQ puts protects against systemic downturns across sectors. - Sector-Specific Hedges: Investors may choose ETFs like XLE (energy), XLK (tech), or XLF (financials) depending on exposure concentration. - Direct Hedges: Buying puts on individual holdings—such as AAPL or NVDA—can protect specific core positions without over-hedging the entire portfolio. - Dynamic Adjustment: Some investors adjust their hedge ratio based on volatility levels or key technical levels (e.g., 200-day moving average breaks). Example An investor with a $500,000 equity portfolio might buy SPY $450 puts expiring in June 2026. If markets drop 15%, those puts could gain enough value to offset 20–40% of the loss, depending on strike and timing.

Mr-Bonnet

XLE

thalassamikra

Mangos' telling me I did not buy enough XLE or XOM calls. Barrel bros are back!

DesignerSea494

Mostly GLD, KMLM, XLE, PDBC, and VHT. But those are hedge positions. Outside of that my speculative cash is on KTOS, ENVX, and SPWR.

billyd1984texas

I've been buying TAN FAN XLE and Xme on weekly autos for years. AI adjacent plays, mining, and energy are my big plays now.

thalassamikra

No one loves XLE? Just me then?

notapersonaltrainer

>There were literally millions of working class American citizens that predicted this. Did they also predict SPY and XLE near ATH's? It's amazing how you guys predict everything in hindsight except anything that makes money.

fattyliverking

I think if oil rips they have the highest beta. The debt they have starts to evaporate and their growth story gets infinitely brighter. That’s going to catapult the share price. But it’s certainly a riskier play than say holding Exxon or XLE if oil goes the other way. My advice if you are uncomfortable is to split up your position maybe 50/50 between Exxon/XLE and OXY.

fattyliverking

Personally I am in GLDM (gold) BCI (broad commodities) OXY (high conviction oil bet on my end but I encourage XLE for the same idea) SPUT (uranium) Mitsui Mitsubishi Marubeni 3 of Buffets sogo shosha houses with heavy commodity exposure.

Odd-Cookie-3393

Last few days I made good money selling XLE calls for March 2026. March is a down seasonal month for oil. So any surge now will come down eventually before the summer driving month.

DanielBandview

buy XLE

DanielBandview

XLE one of my Q4 into 2026 plays

trumpdiego

XLE overtakes SPY in 2030, bookmark it

DesignerSea494

Last week my wife demanded I come out of the bathroom. “Not now! I’m hedging!” She told me to stop that right this instant. Isn’t she going to feel stupid when I show her my GLD, XLE, and KMLM positions…

DesignerSea494

My kick in the nuts was dampened somewhat by large protective positions I’d recently taken in GLD and XLE. This is why we hedge.

PapaCharlie9

I like the SPDR series of sector funds, since they tend to have reasonable options liquidity. Healthcare = XLV Energy = XLE Doesn't look like they have an X--- fund for AI.

User1542x

I like the leveraged ETF weeklies atm… have done well with TQQQ and NVDL…. Also started diversifying - IBIT, XLE, random safe stocks with decent IV, and some momentum plays (CSP on GOOGL, MU, etc)… Leaps, look for companies or etfs that had a big drop but solid fundamentals… got in on JNJ leaps when they hit mid 140’s, MU, XLE, OXY, and some others… meant to get on GOOGL leaps but got side tracked

trumpdiego

Even XLF and XLE will do. Energy/Finance will benefit greatly from AI as will the companies I listed above. The AI benefit to tech has been greatly exaggerated whereas these industries it's just beginning - that is if you believe the AI narrative, which I mostly do.

bengtoskar

Energy tends to be one of the most cyclical sectors out there, which means it runs in multi-year booms and busts tied to inflation, commodity cycles, and demand growth. The interesting part is that today’s setup looks very different from past cycles: AI and data centers are driving a structural surge in electricity demand, governments are pushing hard on energy security, and nuclear in particular is regaining favor as baseload power that doesn’t depend on fuel imports. If you want broad exposure, an energy ETF like XLE gives you the diversified oil, gas, and utility mix, but if you want to lean into the secular tailwinds, uranium ETFs (URA, URNM) are where many investors start. The nuclear supply chain is tiny compared to the demand growth that’s being projected, which creates a cycle that could be both inflation-resistant and long-lasting. Personally, I track this in detail in my Nuclear Update Premium portfolio, where I cover weekly uranium market moves, insider trading signals, and which equities are best positioned for the current cycle. If you’re building long-term retirement exposure, starting with broad ETFs is fine, but adding targeted nuclear exposure could give you the edge when energy inevitably runs hotter than the overall market. If you're interested you can check out my newsletter here: [Nuclear Update Premium](https://upgrade.nuclearupdate.com)

coop4695

Nice! Good luck. I looked at buying some today but didn’t have the balls. Bought Cpl XLE 92 calls 10/17.

sharpetwo

Everyone wants the perfect csp ticker but the truth is you are not picking stocks: you are picking volatility regimes. When you do them, you basically sell crash risk insurance. You want names where: \- IV is rich relative to realized (variance risk premium exists). \- Indeed, liquidity is deep enough to get fair fills. \- Fundamentals are stable enough that a 30% gap does not wipe you. That usually points less to single names and more to index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, IWM) or liquid sector ETFs (XLF, XLK, XLE). You get diversification, tighter spreads, and you are not betting your account on whether some CEO go have a little fun with his head of HR. If you insist on single stocks do it data-driven: screen for names where put skew is elevated and the market is paying up for downside insurance. Starting by looking at how expensive IV versus RV is always a great place to start. If you can't do it in a data driven manner, you need to sell CSPs when the market is paranoid, not just because a stock sits on a watchlist. But if the market is paranoid, the risk is also probably there for a reason.... The edge in csp is not “finding the magic ticker.” It is in position sizing, premium vs risk.Then comes discipline on rolls/exits. But without that, the ticker list does not save you. Good luck.

old_Spivey

Halt die Klappe! Felix is a brilliant guy with a fantastic personality. His ideas are very sound and can lead to substantial gains. As another poster stated above, he does find good investments before some of them really take off. The wins far exceed the losses and if you set stop losses, you will continue to gain in a bull market. If it is a volatile stock you can't set the loss at the buy point or you'll likely get kicked out of your trade. You have to take some risk, usually 5-7%. If you lose that 5-7%, you chalk it up to the cost of business and let it be offset by your other trades of 10-20%. Diversification is also key, although paying attention to the moving sectors will help a lot.( I personally watch the XL funds: XLE, XLF, XLV, XLK etc) I have not paid for his GOAT Academy because I don't have the funds for it now. But I do enjoy his erudite humor, his pets and the approach he takes. Like others who have stated before me: if you don't like it, don't watch. What miserable wretch expends their energy trying to find fault with someone they supposedly don't care about?

Phenom462

XLE . Why try to find the needle in the haystack when you can buy the whole haystack?

RaiseEconomy5779

Not advice- just what I’m buying and why. My core is VTI plus VXUS for broad, low-cost global exposure. For income with quality screens I add SCHD. I tilt to small-cap value with VBR/AVUV for cheaper valuations versus megacap growth. For AI I prefer “picks and shovels” like ASML and TSM (tools and foundry capacity). For energy and power exposure I hold XLE and CEG to play cash flow and rising electricity demand. Cash sleeve is SGOV for T-bill yield while I wait. My horizon is 5–10 years, I add on drawdowns and rebalance annually. If you want super simple, a VTI/VXUS/SGOV combo gets you most of the way there.

Outrageous_Tip_2133

VTI 30% VUG 20% BRK 10% XLF 10% XLE 10% UNH 5% COIN 5% (for crypto exposure) Cash 10%

tachyonvelocity

This isn't "investing 101" because that's not how stocks move. It's what someone who doesn't know investing thinks "investing 101" is. Stocks are pieces of a company's current and future discounted cash flows. This means current stock prices are what the market is pricing in the totality of all current and future earnings. If this sum of current and future earnings went down 5%, it doesn't "require 5.3%" gain whatever that means, it means if the sum of current and future earnings recovered to the first level, the stock will move back, gaining 5.3%. Why your thinking of stock movement is wrong, is that it assumes a 5.3% gain following a 5% loss is more difficult than the fall, because 5.3%>5%. No, this is not how it works, because the difficulty of bouncing back after going down the first time, is not dependent on mathematical percentages, but how the sum of current and future earnings moved. A great example is XLE, or oil stocks, during Covid. Oil stocks fell massively, >60%, because low oil prices caused company earnings to fall. It doesn't mean stocks "require" 150% gain to get back the loss, no it requires earnings to get back to the previous level, which requires a higher oil price. The difficulty between "150% needed after -60%" and "oil prices getting back to the same level" is completely different, which is why your understanding of investing is lacking.

flatthibaut

XLE as nat gas, coal and uranium. All used in baseload energy, which is used to power datacenters.

flatthibaut

I don't disagree with you, I just think there might be a bit more upside to the companies that provide the energy in the first place. I haven't done much research on utilities and I wouldn't be surprised if they're completely under invested as well and offer a good value proposition -- definitely something to look into more! Regarding XLE, there's still Nat Gas in the sector, uranium and coal, and we'll definitely need a lot more stable base-load energy. Also if you follow Goehring and Rosenzweig (highly recommend their natural resources market commentary), they make a pretty good argument on why shale oil production has peaked.

burningmuscles

I take your point, but utility companies are more diversified than just oil & gas - they get sources from renewables, and ever increasing nuclear options. OPEC are currently drilling more for a cheaper price, so the margins on the production of oil is small - how is this going to weigh down XLE? But everyone has to pay the utility company, including, I assume data centres. Either way, just my 2 pence.

burningmuscles

Shouldn't you want to be buying XLU, rather than XLE? - I mean, XLE is more composed with Oil & Gas companies, which is dependent on oil price, OPEC, etc... XLU contains the utility companies that people pay for energy, and is more diversified across different types of electricity generation, etc

tonytwocans

XLP, VPU, XLE Consumer staples, utilities, energy

baconography

May dabble in August ATM XLF calls, XLE puts at open.

kindofblue603

Take a lesson from the stock market in the year 2000 (peak of the internet stock bubble) and what did well from 2000-2003 during the tech crash. Rotation into more value-based stocks in Finance, Energy, Utilities, and Health Care. Check out the holding lists from value-tilted ETFs like MOAT and SPGP to get some ideas. During a rotation to value, you can never go wrong with BRKB-its already on the upswing. If you want less risk than individual stocks then try the sector ETFs of XLF, XLE, XLU, and XLV. Looking at the ratio percent change of XLK(technology sector) vs XLV(health care sector) over a period of time can give you an idea of how much rotation is going on into value. This past week (7/26) the ratio is over 10.

teamyg

At the open, sold out TNA at 37.2 (cost 38) with a loss, 😞 sold out XLE at 87.6 (cost 85.4) with a gain 💰 sold out NVDA at 173.9 (cost 172.3) with a gain 💰 Port update: long AMZN, BRK.B and MSFT; short TSLA.

teamyg

Port update: heavy long AMZN, BRK.B; light long NVDA, MSFT, TNA, XLE; heavy short TSLA.