XLE

Blueberryburntpie

> However, if you try to bet bearish in the short term, prepare to lose your entire ass. The western market makers are absolutely state-of-the-art when it comes to stealing short term option premiums from normies and bears... Only a few percentage down on my VDE and XLE holdings... but that's just a slap on the wrist compared to some of the loss porn posts on this subreddit.

nvidia69420

Long XLE and DFEN at Monday open??

Beagle001

If this means prolonged quagmire, I'm getting back into XLE long dated.

Difficult-Level7038

Yeah just in time to tank my XLE calls

Opening-Berry-6041

Wow you caught that AAOI bounce like a pro do you think that XLE move was more about hedging or something else entirely?

baconography

Is it me, or are XLE calls about 6 weeks out a total bargain here?

Blueberryburntpie

I have about 30% of my portfolio in international ETF, and 30% in VDE/XLE energy ETFs (as a hedge against the oil price and the Schrödinger's ceasefire).

No_Current3675

Just XLE n chill.

Careful_Response4694

The year is 2030. Oil is $20 per gallon at the pump. The strait of hormuz is now open, 3 tankers made it through last week after paying $5 million each in Khameneicoin. Ceasefire agreement #1027 is expected this week. Spy has finally hit an ath of 1300 this week. USO is pegged to $120. XLE is pegged to $60.

johndsmits

30 day russia oil waiver ends tomorrow. Either 🥭 extends \[after call with Putin\] or XLE gonna pump w/broken ceasefire => down day tmorw--buls enjoy your day today.

PapaCharlie9

"Fresh adult" is a phrase I've never heard before. I guess that makes me a "stale baby," lol. You don't have to trade oil directly to get the same benefit. You can use an oil sector equity fund that is a lot easier to trade and requires a lot less capital. XLE shares have good option contract liquidity and the risks are lower that trading futures options. Videos and other learning resources are listed at the top of this page. You don't have to understand the entire oil market to trade options on XLE. But if you really want to do that, the IEA website is a pretty good place to start. They have production forecasts that are the bread & butter of the global oil industry. https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2026

Jemmani22

Broad cheaper *energy* not oil, tracks oil pretty good XLE

Level_Counter3062

Hope you bought that juicy sub $60 XLE dip

Significant_Speed854

Except bought a couple options on XLE yesterday after the “crash”

IvoryTowerResident

depends how long you think disruptions will last and what are the linger effect of getting GCC OG facilities back up + restore normal traffic in the strait. I would also assume a lot of countries will be building deeper reserves and there is also the nat gas story with data centers. XLE is pretty good play

snbgames

A better haven now is energy. In fact look at XLE during any bear market. It wins when everything else loses.

Zeitzen

Maybe this is a dumb question, especially now that things have shot back up today, but seeing how many dips there are due to volatility and people are seemingly trying to take advantage of this and putting more money into the market, would having 50% s&p500 + 50% XLE make sense? If the war ends, the market goes up first, and then XLE should also increase in the long term due to restricted supply and countries running out of reserves If the war continues the market goes down and XLE goes up. I guess this only works if we're lower compared to the stabilization price of things, but given the chaos in the world right now id assume we're under it

Careful_Response4694

The year is 2030. Oil is $20 per gallon at the pump. The strait of hormuz is now open, 3 tankers made it through last week after paying $5 million each in Khameneicoin. Ceasefire agreement #1027 is expected this week. Spy has finally hit an ath of 1300 this week. USO is pegged to $120. XLE is pegged to $60.

TI-99A

Fake ceasefire euphoria over.  Bought XLE before close.  Not yet ready to go massively short the market yet though if the motor oil post is true we are going to see hoarding start in the next week or so and that will might be the pin.

an-seq

Were you planning to hold for awhile? XLE should work like a lot of other big ETFs, if you just leave it alone, it will profit. I'm holding a ton of XLE, but I was just considering energy getting expensive, it had nothing to do with the war.

RumShaker

Bought cheap XLE calls betting that oil goes back up. Make money off the war continuing bros.

SocialIntelligence

> Loaded up more USO, XLE, SU, and PBR on the dip this morning. Looking good! > Writes down notes.

IvoryTowerResident

i personally took some profits from my SOXL longs changed them to SOXX. Also bought some XLE as a hedge in case peace deal fall through.

InfiniteNerve1384

Loaded up more USO, XLE, SU, and PBR on the dip this morning. Looking good!

Local-Worker1088

XLE, oil ETF

Few-Chemist-3463

Wow, you went long energy after the XLE is already up 25% YTD. Take a bow.

gamjatang111

good time to long some oil and XLE on dip

buppiejc

Oil was the only logical play today. Took XLE a month out. Already ITM

IvoryTowerResident

bought into some XLE and AA, we might still see volatility ahead

Past-Entertainer335

Oh my XLE puts and MU calls, finally saved.

Beagle001

Seems to me that now Spy just inverses oil. That’s a huge dump in oil for a shaky two week deal with who knows what on the other side. I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of oil stock go green by mid day on dip buying. XLE especially. So, what will that do to the broader market? Q’s, SPY etc. I don’t know shit btw. But this is what I’m thinking about. I’m long some oil stocks but also holding TQQQ and GOOG calls for Friday. I might have to let most of them go early if it’s gaping up. I’m sure I’ll regret. Maybe not.

butthead4206969

I don’t own XLE but I own XOM and I’m not selling. This is only a 2 week ceasefire until something more permanent comes out, the oil infrastructure over there is fucked which means it’ll be longer until things get back to normal, and besides, XOM pays dividends. It’s one of my DCA holdings.

MEURSAULT_BYE

Holding on to XLE, think this is still going to be messy

stationary_autist

XLE isn’t oil… you guys know that right?

AdamGSMA

I bought XLE 2 days before we invaded Iran at $55 (dumb luck). Sold it late last week locking it at $61. Not worth the drama.

Alone-Narwhal-3806

That was just me dumping all my XLE

Hot-Train7201

It's a "2-week" ceasefire, which in Trump time could mean bombing starts again by the weekend. Keep in mind the core demands of both sides are irreconcilable, so the war isn't over. XLE will likely drop in the immediate term, but in "2-weeks" you might end up buying it again.

Temporary_Ladder_814

My XLE longs are fucked 

sirzoop

XLE is already at $56.81 in overnight trading

West_West_313

I’m buying more XLE tomorrow

Ok-Challenge5579

Your puts got nuked but that cereal with a fork line actually made me laugh out loud man. The market really is just some dude with insomnia and a twitter account making decisions based on whatever he had for dinner At least you called the underlying stuff right, just forgot that logic doesn't mean shit when geopolitics get involved. Those XLE puts probably hurt worse than the SPY ones too

baconography

R.I.P. USO and XLE calls, holy crap. Biggest supreme 🐔🌮 Tuesday, ever.

HugeAd5056

Was right about GLD. Up from $422 on Monday open to $442 right now. XLE did dump on the peace deal though, so you got that right.

Beagle001

Been sitting on some XLE and small oil stock calls for a bit. Watching the theta chew on them. Closed most contracts last week for a decent returns. Today I grabbed some GooG and TQQQ calls just for funzies. Hope this climb continues.

Bulky_Lunch2771

FUCKKKKK I should’ve sold XLE

Blueberryburntpie

30% of my portfolio is in VDE and XLE, the rest is still largely in US and international index funds. Even if the war ended right now, that's not going to un-destroy all of the hydrocarbon infrastructure that was blown up in the Gulf region. Not to mention restarting refineries and plugged oil wells will require time. Now if somehow both the US energy sector and the US/international economy go down at the same time, I'm going to be confused.

IvoryTowerResident

XLE goes up whenever geopolitical tension rises. So it is a good hedge to everything else. Could use QQQ instead of FANG if you want more diversification

OzTheMeh

Something like FANG could be good if you skip the XLE index fund. I'm scared of semiconductors because it is so heavily reliant on Taiwan reporting earnings. I don't trust Taiwan to remain independent.

interstellara_

I also ended up 1% purely on XLE and some pharma profits.

Tay_Tay86

Imagine seeing 115$ per barrel of WTI and you come to the conclusion that this is bullish for the market, since XLE contributes 3% of total earnings, but prices typically are 8-10% of operating costs. That shit is almost 20% operating costs now

Key-Jaguar7630

Fuck ass XLE

Key-Jaguar7630

How is XLE not ripping

AnnaSmiled2

I am in VTI and SCHD. And XLE, USO and FANG. The last three are energy focused

Poptart_Salad

So, theoretically, if we see some tactical nukes dropped over the entrances to these underground missile cities and nuclear sites tonight/overnight, that would be bullish for XLE right?

SonOfLuigi

Port up 8% today thanks to calls on XLE, bought after it pulled back and then rode it back up to the high of the day so far. Thank you for reading my trading journal today.

Key-Jaguar7630

XLE ripping again

Level_Counter3062

Why is XLE so stuck right now it should be pumping

Uniquename34556

As a new “play it safe” investor VXUS is my highest performing ETF this year and doing well compared to VOO for this year. I also wish I knew VDE or XLE are good hedges against inflation. These same ETFs were just doing ok when I first started 2 - 3 years ago. More I learn I think it’s just best to cover ground for a variety of different cycles that tend to occur, weigh accordingly to your goals, and just mostly let auto invest run the show. Don’t overthink it don’t chase the trend and don’t mess around with your allocations too much.

sunburn74

To me its a very simple thing to calculate. Assume you're not in a position to judge the geopolitical situation yourself. You look out at the market and see that currently both oil prices and XLE are going up. But the general market is also going up. That obviously can't be the case. If energy costs go up, the market should go down and vice versa. So one of these groups is wrong. Oil prices are driven by oil traders predominantly. The market is driven by everyone. Who knows more? Who's more likely to be right? The guys who know one very specialized thing? Or the general group who trade on generalized information?

Honest-Capital-4472

True that’s the play momentarily with ES and VIX Yeah crude tends to overshoot levels - but currently also factoring in that a lot of the flow is increasingly shadowed - most volume is official and shows up on the exchange so it’s more legit to deliver or hedge commercially. Tracking the XLE as a front-run and factoring in a break below 108s and perhaps deeper inside 106s for it to become a de-facto VIX Cheers thanks for sharing should be helpful

flowtrader26

The breadth point is the most underrated thing here. Oil & Gas at 100% breadth vs AI at 17% tells you everything — one is a real macro rotation, the other is 3-4 mega caps carrying a narrative. Most retail traders look at theme returns and miss this completely. The AI infra vs AI split is spot on too. Physical layer (power, cooling, data center REITs) is getting paid for signed contracts and locked capacity. The software/chip layer is still pricing in optionality that the market isn't rewarding right now. Two completely different risk profiles dressed up as the same trade. The sector ETF lens cuts through this pretty cleanly — XLE and GDX flow data has been signaling the physical asset rotation for weeks before this kind of analysis confirms it. Institutional volume doesn't lie the way price does.

Poptart_Salad

Oil is going to have to go up like 10 bucks before XLE gets back to my breakeven. I swear energy stonks better rip after the deadline passes tomorrow.

No_Current3675

XLE n chill

No_Current3675

XLE n chill.

No-Improvement3164

XLE and Chilled 130% in 5 years. VOO 62%

MilesDelta

you're not wrong. XLE puts was the demand destruction play but with iran closing straits that's backwards. should've gone XLY puts instead. consider this my public L. the grocery meme still stands though.

MilesDelta

you're not wrong. XLE puts was the demand destruction play but with iran closing straits that's backwards. should've gone XLY puts instead. consider this my public L. the grocery meme still stands though.

readyreadyreadyready

XLE puts make no sense. Short consumer discretionary or something more sensible

git0ffmylawnm8

SPY puts **and** XLE puts? My brother in Christ what were you thinking?

MilesDelta

brotherman iran is about to close a second strait and you think supply chains are priced in? SPY puts print on macro panic. XLE puts are the hedge for when demand destruction catches up to the supply shock. or I'm wrong and I eat ramen for another month. either way the groceries are too expensive.

InfiniteNerve1384

XLE puts and SPY puts? You hate money or what?

Oneok-Field

I work in O&G, my equity is printing. My $XLE is printing too. How are you not making money?

Blueberryburntpie

I had about 30% of my portfolio in VDE and XLE. The rest are your typical S&P500 and international index funds. I guess I'm going to get flashbanged with bright green and bright red.

Cautious-Day3477

I dont usually choose that many. I would only choose 1 or 2. One bit of advice is that once you have made some profit on these ETF shorts, dump them ASAP. Holding these stocks too long can really kill your portfolio. As far as oil and energy stocks, i like XOP and XLE. Good luck!!

No-Improvement3164

XLE up 100% more than VOO the last 5 years. VOO and Chill. 😂😂

Clem_Backtrex

Fair enough on the XLE puts, if you're betting on mean reversion of the war premium by June that's a different thesis than the Hormuz scenario you laid out. Makes more sense as a de-escalation play than a hedge. The vol math is your edge so I won't second guess that part.

SignificantSelection

Good catch on the term structure. The contango past 60 days is the key tell that the market is still pricing this as containable and that’s exactly where the mispricing lives. Where I diverge is on the duration of the disruption. The market is treating Hormuz like a binary switch. I personally don’t think so. P&I club reinstatement requires sequential reinsurance recapitalization, mine clearance, hull inspection and actuarial recalculation. That process takes 18 to 36 months from the moment it starts regardless of any political deal. So rather than playing the near term vol surface I am long XLE Dec 2027 calls and SILJ Jan 2027 calls. Let the term structure reprice toward physical reality over months not days. The skew flattening past June you are watching is exactly the window where long duration starts outperforming short dated hedges. Fat tails are the distribution right now. Fully agree. Having said that, I prefer getting paid over months as the market slowly realizes this isn’t resolving, rather than trying to nail the next headline move.

SignificantSelection

Good call on the backwardation gap. I prefer expressing the same thesis through long-dated XLE calls over direct commodity exposure. You get leverage, defined risk, and equity re-rating when Q1 earnings hit with crude averaging $100+. USL captures the curve mispricing. XLE calls capture that plus the full multi-year regime shift. Already positioned since December and the thesis hasn’t fully priced in yet.

Iunatic

Listen, you're completely missing the macro-algorithmic synthesis here because when the WTI-Brent delta achieves a non-linear inverse convergence, we aren't just talking about a simple commodity fluctuation. Rather, we are witnessing the pure, unadulterated quantization of the kinetic supply chain. You mention the curve compressing, but you aren't accounting for the asymptotic yield curve decay where, when the front-month prompt converges with the outer-tier derivatives, the rolling friction doesn’t just die but undergoes a total stochastic neutralization. This means the $USO ticker isn't just leveraging spot prices anymore; it's engaging in a temporal arbitrage of physical molecules because the Strait isn't merely closed, it’s experiencing a hyper-localized maritime bottleneck of pure kinetic friction where the Iranian asset freeze is the catalyst for the synthetic scarcity paradigm currently inflating the domestic crude benchmark above the global seaborne index. Furthermore, looking at a 7% versus 2% delta and calling it unsustainable is classic linear thinking because in a multivariate thermodynamic market, the decoupling of natural gas from the petroleum liquid-state matrix is actually proof of isolated volatility compression, meaning the natural gas volume isn’t regarded but is just operating in a sub-zero alpha vacuum. To truly understand the $XLE calls as a leveraged kicker, one must first master the algorithmic velocity of the underlying equity-derivative feedback loop rather than trading the news, because the real players are trading the intrinsic momentum of the structural supply constipation. If you aren't mapping the eigenvalues of the pipeline flow-rate versus the macro-economic gravity of the $125 price target, you are just throwing darts at a moving target in a localized distribution matrix.

Beagle001

XLE is at 59.25 more or less right now. Are talking about the same XLE? I’m also half asleep.

Clem_Backtrex

Interesting thesis but your XLE puts seem to fight your own logic. If Hormuz closes, energy names rip higher not lower, they're the direct beneficiaries of $140 oil. You'd want XLE calls as a hedge alongside your SPY puts, not puts on both. Also VVIX/VIX ratio is useful but it's been noisy as hell lately with 0DTE flows distorting the surface. The real tell imo is watching physical crude spreads, Brent front-month backwardation vs 6mo. That's where actual supply fear shows up before any options chain reprices.

options_regime

Good analysis on the vol surface disconnect. The term structure point is the most actionable piece here — when front-month VIX is elevated but the market is still in contango past 60 days, you're looking at a structurally uncertain "event vol" regime that's different from both normal and full crisis modes. The key insight you're describing is that the market is stuck between regimes, which makes standard hedging frameworks break down. Short-dated put skew gets bid up because people need crash insurance NOW, but the longer-dated term structure normalizes because the market's base case is still "this resolves." Both can be right simultaneously and wrong simultaneously. What makes your Hormuz thesis interesting from a regime detection standpoint: if Hormuz actually closes for 3+ months, that's not just a volatility spike — it's a structural regime change that resets the base case for energy costs, inflation expectations, and Fed optionality. The vol surface isn't pricing that path because it's treating it as a tail event rather than an alternative regime with persistent consequences. The practical implication: calendar spreads on VIX (long front, short back) would benefit from the contango collapsing if the tail materializes. But you're right that put skew on sector ETFs (XLE long calls, XLB/XLY long puts) is probably the cleaner expression for the oil transmission channel specifically. One thing I'd watch: realized vol has been running higher than implied in recent weeks. When RV > IV persistently, it suggests the market's vol regime estimate is still too anchored to pre-shock baseline. That's usually not how sustained geopolitical escalation resolves.

HugeAd5056

GLD call makes sense XLE put probably gets you nothing SPY put probably gets you nothing if held too long If you’re trading a scenario setup, you have only one high probability scenario: inflation will show up in CPI reports and everyone knows GLD hedges inflation. World wide inflation is inevitable at this point. The only question is how much and for how long. SPY is too resilient thanks to passive holders and optimists. And there’s evidence the war is cooling down, even though two jets were shot down (one of which is an A/10 which is slow enough to be shot down even when it was newer 4 decades ago; this isn’t evidence of much new difficulty). In essence, I doubt SPY pulls back much from here at all really. But if that’s a scenario you envision, you’d be far better off with VXX calls out of the money because they’re way cheaper and if SPY is going to drop that much, VXX will be moving sky high. That and SQQQ. XLE lags oil price. And even if oil decreases but stays elevated you can expect XLE to only go up. This isn’t like past scenarios, and you and others have outlined why where you’ve mentioned it’s not only the Strait that is impeded but also Russian oil. Oil is definitely going to be elevated for a while… XLE’s value isn’t going anywhere. I’d simplify to GLD calls and VXX calls. Less waste. Even if the war was concluded tonight, GLD still rises as inflation hedge. If you don’t think so then the combo might as well be: GLD calls - **inevitable**, lasting inflation (world wide; only question is how much) VXX calls - in case sentiment get worse SPY calls - in case of early resolution

Blueberryburntpie

I already shifted about 30% of my overall investment to VDE and XLE and will be doing a small DCA into AVUS index fund, while keeping a little bit of cash in a savings account. Oil prices continue to remain in the +$100 per barrel? At least I get to look at some green in my portfolio, and use the dividends to pay for $5 per gas gallon and more expensive chicken nuggets at Wendy's. The war suddenly ends on Monday? Oil and other commodities will still be impacted for months. I'll be riding the stock market rally.

Autogreens

Why puts on SPY on XLE both, are you hedging your own directional bet?

IndividualNo7155

Btw XLE leaps

ohyeahwell

XLE has been pretty good

Catch_ME

I got loaded up on XLE ETF and ExxonMobil.  I'm exiting oil in the summer if this war doesn't wind down. Shortages will mean price caps by the government.  GL HF 

Legitimate_Treat_762

I was thinking VOO, XLE (energy), IWM (small caps, beaten down) as the 3 main ones.

Other-Excitement3061

bullish if your in USO GUSH AND XLE

SonofAngus

The Friday climb to positive by SPY feels insane to me. I also have June and Jan exp calls for $XLE and leaps for Canadian producers.

ryallen23

Yeah fair enough. I picked those prices because I would be happy to hold them all there. With the exception of XLE which is more short term, in normal conditions I would be holding the rest anyway

QuietConsult

Markets look to the future. If the Strait of Hormuz opens, those tolls won't matter. The uncertainty will be gone and XLE will tank

HappyThrasher99

Those are all absolutely horrible ideas… high beta… low moat… very credit dependant. Except XLE because its a sector Your starting point for deploying cash should be Big, big is typically always better, things that are relatively ‘cheap’ at the moment are things like Microsoft or Meta.

InfiniteNerve1384

I can’t speak for the other ones but I think XLE is elevated risk tied to the war. I’d be totally okay with selling puts on it myself, but it’s one of those where you could get assigned pretty deep ITM. Selling weeklies though right?

QuietConsult

Lmao XLE up 40% and now you want to buy it

Over_Ad8113

Solid take. That middle ground is exactly where people get chopped up, especially with the **10Y yield hanging at 4.3% and keeping everything tight.** I’m with you on the **Energy and Defense** rotation. High-multiple tech is just too painful while rates stay elevated, and with the mess in the Middle East, the 'American Gas Station' trade is the only thing with a clear tailwind right now. Starting small something around 20-25% is the move. Reclaiming that **200-day MA** is the big one for me the S&P actually holds above it, any bounce feels like a trap. I’m staying heavy in cash and only adding to the 'necessity' sectors (utilities/defense) until the VIX finally chills out. Are you looking at **US domestic oil** specifically, or playing the broader energy ETFs like XLE??

Catch_ME

XLE bro

JellyfishFestival

This is the first day in market history going back as far as the inception of sector and index tracking ETFs where WTI crude was up more than 5% (12%!) and IWM (Russell 2K smol caps) outperformed XLE. It's only the second day ever when WTI was up over 5% and Russell ended green.

JellyfishFestival

yeah if you had both crude up 12% on the day **and** IWM smol caps outperforming XLE, come up to the counter and claim your prize.