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Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway 3rd Quarter Holdings - SEC Form 13F-HR
1933 Industries seems poised for another rip.
Supply Chain Disruptions and You: A Discussion
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Already moving. Can concur, they’ve been working diligently to get initial MFG in place, eval units out, and these first validation sales under their belt. Should loosen up the market for their products. On that side, their core tech is co packaged optical transducers. 1.6Tbits is ready, and have seen indications 3.2Tbits. More data less energy. Which is a huge benefit in an AI data center like the one Sam Altman walked everyone through in Texas this week.
needs to if administration is serious about revitalizing MFG and exports
Oh man we're in some deep shit. Trade, MFG, and Business services are all down biggly now over the past few months. I don't know how many more warnings people need before they understand that we're heading for a complete economic disaster...
Ask the farmers how well soybeans are going after Trump 1.0. Hint: not well Wasn’t just MFG, some parts of Ag also got blown up
They have already been granted secondary extensions in the US and EU. They lost this in China. They will now need to defend these extensions, more so in EU than US but still. An example is Hims, they lost the legal rights to compound but then settled with Novo to keep supplying. This is less lucrative than novo selling sema products. The patents protect at the core " the molecule" and then secondary are things like "dosage, use, formulation, delivery, etc". Why it is important the china is going to be able to start in 2026 going full throttle is both readying capacity, opening in their own market, and critically starting to produce biosimilars or adjacent that can challenge secondary patents. No this does not necessarily grant them AMD/NVDA status. They have unique and proprietery methods of MFG that others can't replicate. Here we have a drug class, that shares a common MFG method, although some are more efficient than others. For example tirzepatide is more efficient to mfg than cagrilintide and semaglutide (comparing synthetic route). In the pharma world the leader of this can change based upon clinical. A better glp-1 is a better glp-1, abd much of the actual MFG and development is outsourced (which is where I come in). So the only IP advantage they have is in drug screening and familiarity with the market. Everything else can be contracted. Right now almost every single new peptide project bid I see is GLP-1, everyone and their mom is trying to bring one to market. The advantage lily and novo have now is they arent at market and there is less pricing pressure, so they get to really juice those margins. Over time margins will compress as both generic and new compounds flood the market. Taking the market is just a matter of efficacy and cost. If there is a drug product that outperforms and/or has wildly cost effective mfg they can. For insulin its already super efficient and margin compressed everywhere outside the US. Just not much market to get into. You would have to deploy massive capital to chase down not much return. And the market you can get wild margins on (US) you couldn't sell to anyway. How insulin still is priced as it is here... well you should write to your senator and ask them how much longer they wish to keep this going. Anyway this is true for glp-1s as well. Consider the capital investment to start manufacturing. Unless its a clear winner it may not even be worth trying, especially when you consider opportunity cost of other investment or drug products.
So your best come back is goading ppl to a ban bet? "At this point you keep iterating your claim im pretending.""You keep avoiding the question—**why** did you say the patent expires in 2026 when anyone with even the slightest knowledge of this drug knows that it doesn’t expire next year? Unless talking about CHINESE market. Again answer the question, ALSO" just that's when it starts, and mfgs are ready." a general unsubstantiated comment. Idgaf if you can produce proof of your warehouse employment. I care about you Providing evidence WHICH MFG is gearing up for this so call mfg process. Judging by the number of smurf accounts you use to give yourself likes, trying to make it seem like people agree with you—even though no one would scroll **that far** down in this thread just to find your original comment and thumps up all of your responses; I can tell you're a jobless person who replies instantly to internet debates. Meanwhile, employed people like me can only respond before and after work. LOL LOL."
"Well I could have just pointed out that I never claimed all patents expired in 2026", 5 year old level logic. Low IQ excuse " just that's when it starts, and mfgs are ready." Chinese MFG have already been ripping off IP for decades whether paten expired or not. So your point is irrelevant. This Proof that you have no idea what youre talking about pretending to be chemist or scientist and judging on how many ppl like your fake ass comment show level of gullibility these redditors are
Hi literal peptide MFG specialist here. I can speak to some straight technical items in the space. 1. Patent expiration is big. And novo has had little luck so far on evergreening it. 2026 is next year. Sema on the brink of a being a generic and mfgs are ready and waiting. 2. Sema and their next gen sema/cagri both are not outperforming trizepatide. 3. Trizepatide is wildly scalable, probably one of the best peptides I've seen in my career for both relative complexity and ease of mfg. Sema both recombinant and synthetic route not nearly as easy to mfg. 4. LLY has also recently announced small molecule API oral GLP one. (This is the news that crushed viking who just took trizepatide and modified it for oral dosage). 5. Every major pharma company is trying to bring their own GLP to market. Throw this all together and there is major market dominance and price pressure on Novo. A big pivot was their cagri/sema not outperforming trizepatide. Investors likely looking forward and realizing that although they will continue to print obscene amounts of money, that they aren't leading this space anymore. The forward outlook of Novo growing rapidly in the glp space is not as good after the last year or so of data. Again this doesn't mean they out of the race, just being priced from taking the gold to silver. Price range is much more in the moderate growth projections.
Most of the Semi tools are either German or Japanese. Same with panel MFG (screens), roll-to-roll (flexible electronics, medical devices), and robots (6-axis or pick-n-place).
For a longer call, I’m talking 2026 2027, MUFG and FLR. Donnie is most likely going to want to continue the Alaska crude oil MFG and sell it to south kore and Japan, and if they do that, MUFG will be a major investor/buyer and FLR is the construction company that would most likely take up the project
You're missing a couple key points and I can't decide how the market will break one way or the other. 1. The Treasury in rolling over low-interest debt issued in the 00s to higher interest debt today. One reason tRump wants lower rates is to make that US debt less expensive. However, TBills will always be the safe bet and those will suck capital out of the market. 50% of all debt is getting rolled over from June-September. 2. Tariff drama will cause shortages that will raise inflation. However, Baby boomers are retiring at a large enough clip that the labor pool is reducing by 900K people/year. That will have wage inflation impact over the next several years. Tariffs are designed to raise prices so there's more inflation. The goal--supposedly--is to bring manufacturing back to the US, but he tariffed all the raw materials to build manufacturing back, including the industrial components we need from China to build the factories! Add in 104 policy changes in 53 days and investors are at a stand-still. Industrial MFG was booming and he drove that to zero until things calm down. 3. All your points on the housing sector are valid, but honestly you're not bearish enough. With insurance rates spiking some insurers are simply leaving entire states. If you can't get insurance you can't get a mortgage. I think housing prices will collapse and some folks will be forced to sell for major losses, and a large chunk of those owners are corporate owners who gobbled everything up for cash in 2010s-2022. Additionally, home building is going to get way more expensive because all the raw materials are now tariffed, and so many of the day laborers on construction sites are undocumented immigrants. They're so afraid they might not just show up to work anymore. Not to mention when you have major events like the LA fires and hurricanes, the prices of materials in that area also skyrocket, making reinsurance that much more expensive. 4. With all the inflationary pressure people will leave dollars for denominated assets: equities, crypto, gold etc. So yeah...you are generally right and things are going to hurt, but I honestly don't know if we'll see it declines in the market based on fundamentals or if the market becomes the go-to to protect against inflation.
IT WAS OPEN ALREADY, WHAT WITH MOST AMERICAN SOLD PRODUCTS BEING MFG’D THERE. My god…. This guy is a fucking idiot.
Boo-hoo, US auto MFG can go belly-up. Talk about an un-American sector. Nuked public transportation for a century. Planned obsolescence. Raised hood pickup trucks that kill folks... Zero business model that doesn't get a "government bailout" every few years. Just stop and go out of business. Let better companies replace these dinosaurs...
"You will get both. As Europe arms itself, so shall we make money." I don't know who the "we" is here. But despite the fact that many Euro-built systems incorporate US-built parts \[and, I should point out that \*many\* to \*most\* US systems also incorporate tech built by NATO allies\], the Europeans are shifting more and more anyway from US-built systems wherever possible to invest in their own local R&D and production. If you mean the "US" as "we" -- the defense sector will certainly get contracts, but it's going to be sub-systems more and more instead of finished products, with finished products always being more profitable; and to boot, they will be shifting those sub-system and component reliances to local MFG where ever possible. At this point, that only makes sense as the US has proved to be a fickle ally. If you mean "we" as in people invested in European arms manufacturers who are set to profit from this-- yes, absolutely, "we" shall make money, but global isolationism, abandonment of allies that have seen us through thick and thin (many even sticking by us during "angsty" periods when we acted out to irrational levels), and handing over both hard and soft power that the US could have kept to itself to brutal authoritarian regimes isn't worth any amount of dollars to me, because I have a fucking spine.
I work with septic motors and MFG, we just saw a 14% increase this morning.
So what was the actual tariff plan? You can’t just build a MFG plant and hire people in a month it takes years. What’s the real play here ?
was this actual activity or MFG sentiment data? It looks like a big report and I can't read.
Jesus christ dude that Dallas MFG data was horrific wasn't this supposed to boost American manufacturing? 
I do but I'm biased I have a shit ton of shares. 18A on track yield and performance wise. They out built TSMC in Phoenix by almost 2 years. Massive build out of EUV tech. Far more future EUVS ordered.than competition. EUV=the future. TSMC is now having to solve density/back end issues. Intel solved that and is.moving into EUV. Thats a.much rougher climb for TSMC than Intel. EUV is cheating vs 16 or 32x patterning. Backside power/power via is an extremely sought after form feature. Consolidation of TD and MFG under one guy is a huge win. Assuming Intel keeps its current pace they might actually become the first actual quantum manufacturer. (That's a crazy pace to.maintain) Ironically my biggest worry is layoffs. Intel won't survive losing anymore front line mfg folks. And the design side is NOT what made Intel great ever. Intel is a true US company crank out 90% TO 95% great shit HARD and FAST. OVERWHELMING the competition. Foundry>>>>design if they can get shit rolling
Responding without answering or defending Ken's perspective. Typical deflection. Reddit used to be a place for discourse. You're obviously incapable of defending your stance. Do you think Chemicals MFG, O&G, municipal, food&bev, hospitals, energy, auto part MFG, and maritime industries are spending money because they're about to shut their doors or ramping up production?
Yeah but China is now at 104. Apple can move MFG to India and it's only like 26%. Still WAY cheaper than producing in the US.
I will start selling $TLT and deploying cash once the $SPY hits weekly 200 MA near 467. Until then I am sticking with $TLT, $PHYS (gold), and a few divy stocks. Someone here today mentioned the Japanese trading houses/banks. I am researching $NMR, $SMFG, $MFG, $MUFG. I'll prolyl open a small position there soon. What I would say after losing big in 2008, don't BTD on the same stocks or sectors. If everyone here just BTD on tech stocks that is a recipe for disaster. Or just BTD on gold. If you choose a falling knife that just happens to keep falling you can lose everything in months.
Idk what the Dallas Fed MFG Bus Index is but I don't care, calls 
>DALLAS FED MFG. BUS. INDEX ACTUAL -16.30 (FORECAST -5, PREVIOUS -8.30) It's over.
Dallas fed a casual neg 18 on MFG biz index. That Atlanta fed gdp number tomorrow is gonna be bonkers
the golden age of nobody doing any business cuz shits so retarded you just have to wait it out DALLAS FED MFG. BUS. INDEX ACTUAL -16.30 (FORECAST -5, PREVIOUS -8.30)
Fuck this sane washing bullshit from the NY Times. If he really wanted to bring MFG back to the US he should be doing it in a slow, methodical, rational way. Like the CHIPS act for example, which he is hates and is trying to cancel, only because it has Biden's name on it. What a fucking joke, I'm done with people trying to make excuses for him, he's an idiot.
They do, but there was a recent facelift. To be fair, most MFG have generational cycles for models about 5-10 years apart. On behalf of a bmw guy, about halfway through you’ll get an LCI (life cycle impulse) where they tweak some stuff, good or bad). lol
Great, now some random Japanese bank (MFG) no one ever heard of is now my best-performing position.
It's a real unfortunate situation, but there's been several events that have taken place in recent years to provoke Russia to do what it's doing. Like getting back to requests to join NATO. Ukraine was a complete mess around 2014, where independents in Donbas area wanted to be their own state run people (not happening). From 2014 to 2021, over 14,000 people killed in this region with more Russian troops slowly growing in numbers, smelling blood in the water. Putin has a history of invading border states and trying to bring back USSR dominance to his end of era reign. It's mostly ego, and who knows how many years he has left. We don't want nuclear war, and that would be possible if this keeps escalating. This war is stupid, and no one is winning anything worth the blood shed. The only winners are weapons MFG, military contractors, and investors.
DLSS MFG Deep Learning Super Stock Magnificent Fund Generator
Betting on SONY was a good move. I have a slight suspicion a Japanese bubble is slowing forming (MFG, SONY... car makers don't really count but TM could join in eventually
Can we also get the MFG on ?
Sony and Toyota underrated.. MFG too but no one looks at Japan... yet.
Short answer: Jevons paradox Longer answer: no one is traveling slower until the race is one. This is just an efficiency gain, and every efficiency gain doesn't result in same consumption at lower costs, but increased consumption at constant cost (at worst, most buy more). NVDA gives x factors of efficiency gains every generation, and not once has it ever resulted in lower consumption. Just ask gamers if DLSS/MFG means they never need a better GPU - no one is better at understanding disappointment in exponential gains than gamers. They're so hooked they don't even tolerate the idea of inflation - 30% improvement gain for 20% cost gain? Horrible deal!
I had futures accounts with MF Global and Peregrine Financial. Both of these collapsed due to financial fraud/mismanagement. Futures customers are just another creditor in the bankruptcy proceeding and not protected. Industry claims accounts are segregated so no exposure. However this is false in the case of the books being cooked as was the case in MFG and PFG. Eventually after several years customers recovered 80 to 90 percent of their funds as the bankruptcy receiver went after third party counterparties such as JP Morgan similar to what happened with Madoff.
They haven’t made anything good in 10 years and it’s getting worse. Same as the other MFG’s but at an accelerated pace.
I have been to 50 or so Chinese MFG plants. What you are seeing in this graph is indifferent to tariffs and is part of the issue with people's understanding of why the there were tariffs put in place by both administrations. China factories are very different. First, the Government buys raw materials in bulk, and in many cases subsidizes the materials for factories. Second, in many factories less than 5% of the workers are permanent full time. There are labor pools that are drawn from daily. Third, the cost of compliance and environmental regs are completely different. I could go on but you get the point. Tariffs on their own will not fix the problem, but they are a way to get other countries to the negotiating table. One could argue that we should just let the market decide, and you could, but do our workers want to have conditions like those in China? I think not.
The whole “invest in America” may be a reasonable long term approach if they make it. I recall seeing similar reasoning for Intel. Aged like milk no? Rivian is well received and has good investment backing. They are also handcuffed to EV sentiment and I foresee more growing pains in that realm unless crude oil prices skyrocket. Tesla has the name, the network they built, charge credits, and years upon years of advancement in EV MFG (not saying it’s QUALITY tho lol). The brand attracts all sorts of different investors. Rivian is simply an EV MFR. Tesla is perceived as more. Why should Rivian be valued even half that of ford or GM? Its stock has as much upside as it does downside. And at the end of the day its share price does not reflect its real value in the industry. I believe shortly after IPO it was the 2nd most valuable car MFR behind Tesla, which again is more than a car company in the eyes of investors. Their bread and butter will be to reach profitability, but they have less mechanisms to do that and it will take years. Honestly I’m just waiting for them to drop to roughly $8b market cap and then wait for full acquisition once EV gains a little more momentum.
Yea something still wrong I got some japanese banks on my watchlist and they never corrected to the upside check out SMFG or MFG
Low risk and being in a high tax bracket should drive you towards tax-exempt bonds. Based on your post history it looks like you are likely in California so you should look at California Municipal Bonds either buying them directly or through a money market fund along the lines SWKXX or VCTXX. The last monthly distributions from VCTXX were $0.002531 (6/1-6/28) and SWKXX was $0.0026758 (5/16-6/17) which works to about 3.09% yield. Based on your MFG taxable income your top tax bracket for federal is 37% and at least 10.3% for California or 37.3% combined. The federal and state exempt municipal bonds translate into a 4.92% monthly yield or 5.04% annually. This is roughly equivalent to your 5% HYSA post-tax. Something to explore with your broker that has better insight into available California municipal bonds that match with your time horizons.
>BREAKING: Pending US Home Sales dropped to 72.3 in April, lowest reading since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020. Aside from 2020, this was the largest drop in the indicator in 22 years. >Chicago Manufacturing PMI plummeted in May to 35.4, lowest reading since May 2020. Over the last 45 years, a reading this low has only ever occurred during a recession. >GERMAN ENGINEERING ORDERS DOWN 9% IN FEB-APRIL Y/Y (DOMESTIC ORDERS DOWN 12%, FOREIGN ORDERS DOWN 6%) - VDMA >US ISM MFG. NEW ORDERS INDEX ACTUAL 45.4 (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 49.1) It's happening. 🔥🔥🔥
Full manufacturing collapse US ISM MFG. NEW ORDERS INDEX ACTUAL 45.4 (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 49.1)
Who wants these things? They are being shoved down our throats in the name of Climate Change. MFG's of EV's lie about their claims for these vehicles and the EPA still doesn't have definitive measurements on their MPG equivalents to ICE vehicles.
How would you move on these? Am new regard please be gentle. HIMS and MFG https://preview.redd.it/bhryvcclxlnc1.png?width=2245&format=png&auto=webp&s=cc8d7cb109df1066287e1852df36af561a472b7f
Sony has never made GPUs you are confused. They did have Samsung fab them for awhile. Anyway TSMC just makes the actual chips that go into the cards (that are MFG'd by Nvidia and others) but the pricing power is all Nvidia's
Feeling particularly bullish on HIG and MFG. The insurers (CB/CRVL) crushed this week feel like HIG is a natural extension; ​ MFG could be a long term play
U.S DALLAS FED MFG BUSINESS INDEX (JAN) ACTUAL: -27.4 VS -9.3 PREVIOUS Spy rallies because look recession *Forgets about the cold*
Chip MFG is a capital intensive business. TSMC needs to service $30B of debt, compared to NVIDIA $11B and AMD $3B. TSMC plows an additional $30B+ into CapEx each year. When TSMC reports Op and Net, do you consider the $10B subsidies from Japan, $20B from Germany, $15B from US? It’s a razor thin business because it would not exist successfully without government support. Chip MFG goes through boom and bust cycles that most publicly traded companies would not tolerate. For evidence of these business challenges, just look at the vertically integrated chip makers like Intel and Micron. Why do you think they’re also seeking US subsidies?
With an income of $100K, married-filing-jointly status and the $29,200 standard deduction your total federal tax is only $8,032 and your highest tax bracket is 12%. If you were to put $11,000 over the course of the year into a traditional IRA or 401k then that would drop your federal tax down to to $6,712 ($1,320 savings). As MFG, your taxable income with the standard deduction is $70,800 ($100,000 - $29,200) and the 12% tax bracket remains in place until $94,300. When you go above this bracket limit, only the amount above the limit is subject to the higher 22% tax rate. So, if your total taxable income was $95,000 ($124,200 - $29,200) then only $700 ($95,000 - $94,300) is subject to the 22% tax rate which is $154. I would stick with a Roth 401K or Roth IRA account until the amount that you would put into Roth account is more than the amount of your income that is above the 22% minimum. So, for 2024 the 22% bracket starts at $94,300 an if you want to save $11,000 in an IRA/401k then as MFJ, your income should be more than $134,500 ($94,300+$29,200+$11,000).
Why don't you take a look at the charts of the big 4 banks over there, MUFG MFG SMFG and SoftBank Group Corp (9984 on the TSE). Something broke big time because they are all losing their entire ass.
Did you all just see that the Auto makers just gave the union workers a 5% raise per year for the next 5 years? Where is that additional cost going to go? Well, interest rates will have to come down or the manufacturers will be offering lower interest loans. This huge MFG rebate or this low interest loan or 0% for full MSRP.
Efficacy of their products is available in published clinical data. All I can say is watching people go off about these GLP-1s is they have no fucking idea what they are talking about. My livelihood is pharma MFG, I cannot disclose or even indicate any non-public information, I cannot trade these companies, and it is taken very seriously. So the only advice I can give is that practically all of what I have seen floating around here is so utterly stupid; if you are interested in trading these companies don't get your info from here. Should have been a Senator.
That's a Factory vehicle.... see the MFG plates...
I like CSIQ for the following reason: \- The industry is consolidating. Tier-1 MFGs from China are getting stronger & gaining market share. \- The strongest Tier-1 players have raised capital to vertically integrate and either strengthen gross margins or will drive weaker competitors out. \- CSIQ is guiding 30-35GW of shipments in 2023 and telegraphing 50 GW of cell capacity to start 2024 and 70 GW of cell capacity to start 2025. Cell capacity is what you should pay attention to because it is expensive CAPEX and MFGs will try to run utilization as close to 100% as possible. \- If shipment volume doubles in 2 years, based on what mgmt is telegraphing, top line revenue growth should be very healthy. Add on energy storage shipment growth, as well, and top line should be very strong in coming years. \- Poly, module ASPs and shipping costs have all normalized back to pre-COVID times now. It all whipped back so fast in the first six months of 2023. \- CSIQ is a survivor. If it can simply execute its growth plan, without any improvement in margins from vertical integration (assuming the benefit is competed away), its EPS should grow by at least 15-20% per year in a base case. \- The solar industry is growing from 300+ GW in 2023 to 1 TW by 2030. That is secular growth that Tier-1 China players like CSIQ, JKS, Trina, JASO, Long-I & Tongwei are poised to capture. \- I would think that deserves a market-level PE of 15x, but I would settle for a PE of 10x right now. \- People talk about solar module MFG being a low barrier to entry business, but if you have to vertically integrate MFG just to compete with the Tier-1s, and build a track record for bankability, and build out a sales & distribution channel all across the globe, all to earn \~5% net profit margins while competing ferociously against efficient Chinese-managed companies, what business in their right mind would want to do that?
Virtually 100% of Apple's MFG base is in China. That is an enormous risk to their business if trade completely stopped between China and the U.S. Contrast that to CSIQ - 66% of its shipments go to customers outside of the U.S. so at least it would still have an ongoing business.
And because of their Bully Dictator MFG will be built in Friendlier places that won't try cyber attack us every week....
"Oh you sexy chart, I see someone is going up... Let me just leverage that position." MFG. 🤣
What idiot would move MFG to Ukraine after Russia invaded in 2014? Dumb. As if it was resolved? Dumb.
any thoughts on the sensibility and likelihood of rumored deglobalization processes resulting in more localized & autarky like production of MFG and service jobs within nations themselves? aside from GDP concerns, my personal beliefs are that it makes countries less fragile & more independent, two good things.
No rietard. Take a look at what it says ISM MFG.
>U.S DALLAS FED MFG BUSINESS INDEX (APR) ACTUAL: -23.4 VS -15.7 PREVIOUS; EST -11.0 ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-04-24 ^10:30:53 ^EDT-0400
>INDIA (MAR) S&P GLOBAL INDIA PMI MFG ACTUAL: 56.4 VS 55.3 PREVIOUS ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-04-03 ^01:00:51 ^EDT-0400
>CHINA (MAR) CAIXIN CHINA PMI MFG ACTUAL: 50 VS 51.6 PREVIOUS;EST 51.4 ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-04-02 ^21:46:24 ^EDT-0400
>AUSTRALIA (MAR F) JUDO BANK AUSTRALIA PMI MFG ACTUAL: 49.1 VS 48.7 PREVIOUS ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-04-02 ^19:00:21 ^EDT-0400
Lot of word salad to say "I am just making shit up". And you clearly didn't read about how we closely work with the customer through their milestones. You think we don't regularly discuss trial milestones, updates, hurdles, etc. We scale lines and forecast material needed. Who do you think makes the drug substance for trials? We also scale in parallel, so you bet there is constant communication about ongoing status or any possibly delays. When mfg lines costs tens of millions of dollars and with long lead equipment that can take 12+ months, no one is paying for those orders with out confidence schedules/milestones are on track. And there is constant communication with the clients management teams to be on top of delays. So since the MFG side has to adhere closely to clinical and commerical schedules, to an extent you can't even imagine. As is clear in your response. Secondly, to then take such a narrow and bizzare view that because doctors and agency reviewed it can't be bungled. Doctors fuck up trials, happens way more than you think. Regulators fuck up regulations. Also you have no idea if I was implying regulators or doctors screwed up because that isn't in anything I said. Do you know what can also delay and halt trial, not filling your documents correctly, not having your mfg attribute and specifications fully agreed on prior to filling, not forecasting material for trials correctly, not having your formulation sites ready for material, and so on. You seem to believe there is nothing outside of your limited understanding that could impact a trial. But then again that doesn't surprise me, because you have limited understanding and high confidence. Poor combination. So did they bungle their trials? Yep. Delayed fillings, updates to fillings post fillings, formulation and component supply chain completely disconnected. Remember they pursued trials to start outside of the US, a choice done for one reason. They weren't ready to get trials going in the US and their hope was to bridge it post fact with later phase trials in the US after starting in UK/SA. Yep that was a bad plan as well. Because unlike your ignorant view of how this works there is so much more, and so many more places to screw up. And their management absolutely did. Since I've worked with many companies from smaller start ups to pharma giants I have seen a range of them go through their drug pipeline and seen different management and approaches with carrying degrees of success; NVAX was by far one of the worst I've seen. There were start ups out of uni labs with maybe 10 employees who handled their early phase clinicals better. Your response sounds like that of a child or an idiot, with clearly no intimate knowledge of this industry or how it works. Are you deeply invested in NVAX? Or just an argumentative teen?
15 years experience in CDMO pharma. I have worked on 100+ pre phase 3 products as well as 10 commercial launches. Working closely with customers through their trials and development. Why do you think there is no overlap on MFG control and specification with the clinical? You have evidence for your belief I wouldn't have knowledge of what happens or what goes into clinical trials? Considering these are the major milestones to move MFG along through the phases? So do you think there is some specific information I have wrong or have demonstrated to not know about clinical trials you are so privy too? Or are you just blowing it out your ass?
Doubt it is Modrena unless they have outright falsified clinical data or financial projects. I work in CDMO pharma MFG. I have worked on their processes; there most certainly is a full on commercial/FDA approved MFG line for their main line products, it isn't smoke and mirrors. So short of fake data to get FDA approval I can't see it being them.
Wouldn't be shocked, but I wouldn't call them Biotech. I designed some MFG lines for them, one of the most incompetent companies I have ever worked with. Only skill their management has is tranfering money from investor pockets to theirs. But still, unless they have outright falsified clinical data or financials to investors not so much fraud there. They did build MFG capacity, etc, wasn't the Theranos style fraud of "say you are making something you aren't" etc.
>AUSTRALIA (MAR P) JUDO BANK AUSTRALIA PMI COMPOSITE ACTUAL: 48.1 VS 50.6 PREVIOUS \>AUSTRALIA (MAR P) JUDO BANK AUSTRALIA PMI MFG ACTUAL: 48.7 VS 50.5 PREVIOUS \>AUSTRALIA (MAR P) JUDO BANK AUSTRALIA PMI SERVICES ACTUAL: 48.2 VS 50.7 PREVIOUS ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-23 ^18:01:08 ^EDT-0400
just going to pick out some interesting moves DOCU: -19.3% FRC bank: -20% asset managers being fucked: OWL: -9% KKR: -9% APO: -8% SCHW : -8% funny bank moves: DB (deutch bank? dodgy bank): -5.3% MFG: japanese bank: -6.5% JNK: JinkoSolar China -14% Peloton: -11% SOFI: -9%
>NEW ZEALAND (4Q) MFG ACTIVITY SA (QOQ) ACTUAL: -0.4% VS 5.1% PREVIOUS \>NEW ZEALAND (4Q) MFG ACTIVITY VOLUME (QOQ) ACTUAL: -4.7% VS 3.1% PREVIOUS ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-09 ^16:45:52 ^EST-0500
>INDIA (FEB) S&P GLOBAL INDIA PMI MFG ACTUAL: 55.3 VS 55.4 PREVIOUS ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-01 ^00:00:43 ^EST-0500
>CHINA (FEB) CAIXIN CHINA PMI MFG ACTUAL: 51.6 VS 49.2 PREVIOUS;EST 50.7 ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-02-28 ^20:45:44 ^EST-0500
>AUSTRALIA (FEB) JUDO BANK AUSTRALIA PMI MFG ACTUAL: 50.5 VS 50.1 PREVIOUS ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-02-28 ^17:00:39 ^EST-0500
>DALLAS FED MFG INDEX -13.5 EST -9.3 ^FXHedge ^[@Fxhedgers](http://twitter.com/Fxhedgers) ^at ^2023-02-27 ^10:35:02 ^EST-0500
>U.S DALLAS FED MFG BUSINESS INDEX (FEB) ACTUAL: -13.5 VS -8.4 PREVIOUS; EST -9.3 ^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2023-02-27 ^10:30:42 ^EST-0500
>AUSTRALIA (FEB P) JUDO BANK AUSTRALIA PMI COMPOSITE ACTUAL: 49.2 VS 48.5 PREVIOUS \>AUSTRALIA (FEB P) JUDO BANK AUSTRALIA PMI MFG ACTUAL: 50.1 VS 50.0 PREVIOUS \>AUSTRALIA (FEB P) JUDO BANK AUSTRALIA PMI SERVICES ACTUAL: 49.2 VS 48.6 PREVIOUS ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-02-20 ^17:00:46 ^EST-0500
With the Superchargers built in China it doesn't look like they'll be getting any Stimulus money from Biden... Who MFG chargers is the U.S.?
>INDIA (JAN) S&P GLOBAL INDIA PMI MFG ACTUAL: 55.4 VS 57.8 PREVIOUS ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-02-01 ^00:00:20 ^EST-0500
>AUSTRALIA (JAN F) JUDO BANK AUSTRALIA PMI MFG ACTUAL: 50.0 VS 49.8 PREVIOUS ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-01-31 ^17:02:08 ^EST-0500
>DALLAS FED MFG BUSINESS INDEX (JAN) ACTUAL: -8.4 VS -18.8 PREV ^FXHedge ^[@Fxhedgers](http://twitter.com/Fxhedgers) ^at ^2023-01-30 ^10:34:19 ^EST-0500
>U.S DALLAS FED MFG BUSINESS INDEX (JAN) ACTUAL: -8.4 VS -18.8 PREVIOUS ^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2023-01-30 ^10:30:40 ^EST-0500
>AUSTRALIA (JAN P) JUDO BANK AUSTRALIA PMI COMPOSITE ACTUAL: 48.2 VS 47.5 PREVIOUS \>AUSTRALIA (JAN P) JUDO BANK AUSTRALIA PMI MFG ACTUAL: 49.8 VS 50.2 PREVIOUS \>AUSTRALIA (JAN P) JUDO BANK AUSTRALIA PMI SERVICES ACTUAL: 48.3 VS 47.3 PREVIOUS ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-01-23 ^17:02:16 ^EST-0500
>AUSTRALIA (DEC F) JUDO BANK AUSTRALIA PMI MFG ACTUAL: 50.2 VS 50.4 PREVIOUS; EST 51.3 ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-01-02 ^17:01:06 ^EST-0500
>NEW ZEALAND (3Q) MFG ACTIVITY VOLUME (QOQ) ACTUAL: 3.1% VS -4.9% PREVIOUS \>NEW ZEALAND (3Q) MFG ACTIVITY SA (QOQ) ACTUAL: 5.1% VS -3.8% PREVIOUS ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2022-12-08 ^16:46:10 ^EST-0500
>AUSTRALIA (NOV) S&P GLOBAL AUSTRALIA PMI MFG ACTUAL: 51.3 VS 51.5 PREVIOUS ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2022-11-30 ^17:01:08 ^EST-0500
1. I agree Elon would not “build his own device from scratch”, it was more of a catch all phrase to simply say he’s “building a phone” 2. Google building Android and letting a MFG brand as “Pixel” or “Nexus” isn’t at all the same as Elon waging war with 30% fees. Google charges those too. Yes he’ll likely use an open source system like Android but he’ll be forced to use separate App Store for Twitter. He’s not likely to contract out a mfg to build his phone. He’s more likely to acquire companies to give him control over development. 3. Point of discussion is he is forcing others to compete in the space, so look for other companies to benefit from Google and Apple competing with whatever Elon comes up with.
Demand Destruction is BULLSHIT... Pipe dreams, if the world uses less oil, OPEC+ Lowers output... Yes, /CL will be going back up... China is a non factor... a Media Misinformation! They have been buying tons of Russian crude and will continue to do so.. Refining is the problem that most refuse to see.. Lack of investment from 2014 to the Pandemic Era has left the world with dwindling capacities. Notice that Diesel is still crazy money.. Diesel is the inflationary tool! Everything MFG, grown, or otherwise produced, throughout the world requires Transport, which ALL runs on Diesel. Globalism has created a MONSTER, parts being produced in 8 different countries tries being shipped to an assembly facility, and assembled, then shipped to a regional distribution network.. The amount of shipping and freight charges are mind boggling...
What competition? I mean I know there are other EV’s coming but when and in what volume? Way I see it all the other automakers that have been around have legacy costs to deal with, unions, and have to gut their currently profitable business in order to switch to EV’s. It will all happen but that is why they are taking so long. Just go look at the production ramps of any EV then compare it to a product ramp from Tesla. TSLA will rebound with the market in the coming years with great operating margins while the competition is busy finding old and new costs at the same time. Competition is a ways off still. Demand will be high enough to exceed supply of EV’s from all MFG’s for the foreseeable future.
>AUSTRALIA (OCT F) S&P GLOBAL AUSTRALIA PMI MFG ACTUAL: 52.7 VS 52.8 PREVIOUS ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2022-10-31 ^18:00:35 ^EDT-0400
>DALLAS FED MFG ACTIVITY ACTUAL -19.40 EST -17.4 ^FXHedge ^[@Fxhedgers](http://twitter.com/Fxhedgers) ^at ^2022-10-31 ^10:43:18 ^EDT-0400
>AUSTRALIA (OCT P) S&P GLOBAL AUSTRALIA PMI COMPOSITE ACTUAL: 49.6 VS 50.9 PREVIOUS \>AUSTRALIA (OCT P) S&P GLOBAL AUSTRALIA PMI SERVICES ACTUAL: 49.0 VS 50.6 PREVIOUS \>AUSTRALIA (OCT P) S&P GLOBAL AUSTRALIA PMI MFG ACTUAL: 52.8 VS 50.3 PREVIOUS ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2022-10-23 ^18:01:44 ^EDT-0400
Alright. Allow me to tackle this one by one. 1: I’m showing my privilege (if you are going to say that, at least spell the damn word right!). - I was raised with my sister, by my mother from age 3 forward as a single parent in San Diego County, CA. One of the most expensive places to live. My sperm donor of a father gave her $125 per kid for myself and my sister per month, and threatened her to cut off all payments if she fought for more. She was struggling so much that it wasn’t worth the risk to her, not truly understanding how much mothers have more power in courts than fathers do. She raised myself and my sister in some of the cheapest apartments out there because it was all she could afford. Meanwhile, we watched as people on welfare lived in houses. My father on the other hand, owned a 3 bedroom house, a houseboat he was paying ship docking fees for, an airplane he was paying hangar fees for, and was renting an apartment. My mom pleaded with him to let us stay in the house. He told her she could afford it, and rented it to people on HUD. So calling me privileged is like calling a recovering addict privileged because they get to live in Sober Living at a discounted price, only I wasn’t an addict! Lastly, I’ve worked 60-80 hours per week since I was 14 years old, busting my ass because I didn’t want to become like my mom. 65 and still can’t afford to retire! Booked out so many months, even with the saved up vacation time, the company couldn’t afford to lose me for a day let alone 2 weeks, so I didn’t get those beautiful things called “vacation”. 2: We each pick our career paths and follow them. If you don’t believe in the stock market, then move on to something you do believe in. I always promote focusing on happiness first. I loved what I did for 15+ years, but the hours were too much, and I had to accept that even though the career was more a hobby to me than most in their work line, I work to live. I don’t live to work. So I had to move on. The restaurant was a dream, so that’s what I moved on to, and COVID killed that. Still haven’t decided if that was a blessing in disguise or a curse. 3: I can’t argue that. 4: While I understand where you are going with it, when you are hit with a bill at the end of the year for $2B in taxes, despite how productive the business has or hasn’t been, can you really blame them for trying to find every work around they can to compensate for it? When I was in business, there was so much tax matching I had to do as an employer, that for every 5 full time employees, had I not been charged those taxes, I could have hired a 6th! Think about that. 20% of an employee’s earned income, I’m matching and paying to the government, not including what true employee is paying to the government. If you want an employee to get paid better, maybe get the gov to reduce those taxes. It truly strangled us as a struggling business! 5: I’m sorry, but you’ve clearly not looked at pay vs pricing in other countries. I actually have a great story to back this statement! I’ll try to keep it short. One of the companies I worked for, decided to create their own line of speakers (I worked in audio/video). No surprise, they were to be MFG’d in China. We received a semi truck full of product one day, and had to rush to unload it, as we get additional fees if it takes more than 90 minutes to unload. While helping, I came across a wallet. It had no identification, a few random pieces of paper in it with some Chinese writing, and some Chinese currency. I figured there is no way to find the owner with no identification in it. I looked up the currency and found the US value to be around $100. I let the owners of my company know of my find, and they did some research and managed to track the owner down. It turned out that he had lost it the same day he had just been paid a full month wages. That money was a month for him, his wife, and I think 3 kids. It appalled me that it was so little for that. So I thought that prices must be cheaper out there for him to afford to take care of his family like that. Prices were cheaper in some ways, housing and so on. But then, of all fast food chains, knowing that McDonalds was out there, I looked up the pricing there. Eating at McDonald’s out there is like eating at a 5 star, 4 diamond restaurant out here. The USD price for meals at McDonald’s out there is slightly lower, but if he had taken his wife and his kids to a McDonalds out there, it would have taken around 40% of his monthly income for that single meal! So yes, McDonalds can pay employees a livable wage out there. Because their prices are so astronomically high that only tourists can afford them! It’s amazing how perception can be different from reality. We hear half truths and whole lies and believe them to be the reality. Here is another interesting tidbit, being in the food industry, knowing the costs etc… a 14-16” pizza in San Diego, CA costs about $3 in materials to create. It’s one of the most lucrative food industries out there. Average good quality pizza pie out there is between $25-$30 ea. Their minimum wage out there however, is $15/hr including servers. Building rent is astronomical, as well as utilities. I moved from there to Southern Alabama. Minimum wage here is $7.25/hr. Servers get $2.15/hr plus tips. Building rent is easily 3 times cheaper as is all utilities. Same sized pie, same price out here. So while business owners in California are being bashed for not paying a “livable wage” and being greedy, they are struggling to even pay their own bills, while here the pizzas sell for the same price, but the costs are far less. California is extremely Over inflated, and all of the blame goes on business owners rather than where it belongs. Everyone wants to point fingers, but most aren’t educated enough to do so accurately! Sometimes the truth is more convoluted than it appears. Most of the time, people make accusations with little to no facts. Society is a bunch of sheep, and the media guide them whatever direction they wish. Even the conspiracy theorists are wrong most of the time, as they too, don’t have the facts, and can only hypothesis what is happening. Facts matter, but few share them.
Right now the equities market cares about one thing only. And that is rates. When there is cheap money no one gives a shit about "cash flow and earnings". So until the market breaks any hope for changes in rates, any single event that may provide speculation on a rate pivot will be speculated on. So in this case weak MFG data could imply less demand. Maybe pivot sooner? If markets accept there is no possibility of a pivot in the next year or so then they will start looking at fundamentals again. The tldr; this is still a speculators market on rates. Until it becomes a fundamentals market be ready for random chop.
>INDIA (SEP) S&P GLOBAL INDIA PMI MFG ACTUAL: 55.1 VS 56.2 PREVIOUS ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2022-10-03 ^01:00:19 ^EDT-0400
>JAPAN (3Q) TANKAN LARGE MFG INDEX ACTUAL: 8 VS 9 PREVIOUS; EST 10 \>JAPAN (3Q) TANKAN LARGE MFG OUTLOOK ACTUAL: 9 VS 10 PREVIOUS; EST 11 \>JAPAN (3Q) TANKAN LARGE NON-MFG INDEX ACTUAL: 14 VS 13 PREVIOUS; EST 13 ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2022-10-02 ^19:56:32 ^EDT-0400