Reddit Posts
Immunotherapy for AML Remission Maintenance - GPs Phase 3 Results $SLS Now Truly Imminent. 80th Event PR offers as sure a Sure thing there ever was or Will Be in the Market
Immunotherapy for AML Remission Maintenance - GPs Phase 3 Results $SLS Now Truly Imminent. 80th Event PR offers as sure a Sure thing there ever was or Will Be in the Market
$MOS: The "Hormuz Arbitrage" Nobody is Talking About. Why the Market is Wrong about the Sulfur Crisis.
Fertilizer trade - still early? $MOS $CF
Iran War Live: Trump Says U.S. Campaign to Wind Down and Plans National Address
If Hormuz stays disrupted, fertilizer might be the sleeper trade
My thesis for Nvidia, and why I believe it is worth $250-$380
Just for the Investment Return Potential of it, - What if Gps Immunotherapy Really Works and does get Fda approval... ? What is Gps Worth?
Cigs Are Good For You: Why Oral Turns Me on!
Market down, this portfolio is flat
My Nana predicted the INTC deal, Now she's hinting that MOS and NTR could be the next winners.
YIKES - LAZR Doesn’t Look Too Good Short Term. CEO is Making it So Much Worse Long Term.
Modest market cap of $USD13M despite impressive inferred resource of 279.5 million tons of potash w/ $18 billion Insitu valuation => Sage Potash (SGPTF SAGE.v)
WiMi Hologram Cloud develops five chips for 3D holographic LiDAR
MOS under appreciated and undervalued compared to competitors
$ICL Is the only company in the fertilizer market who keeps beating earnings and is growing! Compared to its peers $MOS $CF $IPI
$ICL Is the only company in the fertilizer market who keeps beating earnings and is growing! Compared to its peers $MOS $CF $IPI
$ICL Is the only company in the fertilizer market who keeps beating earnings and is growing! Compared to its peers $MOS $CF $IPI
Daily Review & Trades: Technical Analysis of SPY QQQ IWM
Recommendations on When to Exercise a Call for Dividends
2022-10-18 Better Tasting Crayons (Mathematically derived options plays)
2022-10-17 Better Tasting Crayons (Mathematically derived options plays)
$MOS has an average target of $68.75 (High $93, low $49). Here is a 14 page DD on the company.
$NTR, $CF, $MOS - AG Fertilizer Bull Market 2007/8 vs 2022
Why $MOS is going to skyrocket ? Because i said so. I am the Technotard 🤪
Starving Families, and how to turn them into profit.
Inflationary trades are back. don't miss out on $MOS next leg higher. check its 2008 moves
MOS, the MOAS is almost priced in the name 🚂🚂🚀🚀
$MOS, Solid earnings play. I expect it to reach 420.69 by tomorrow 😂
$MOS potential bounce off both support and falling wedge. I'm retarded and i can see it. Can you ?
$MOS nlbounce both off of support and off falling wedge. I'm retarded and I'm in.
Anyone under 40 has never invested in a Bear Market & It shows - Long $GLD and $XLE
80% of its fertilizer imports come from Russia, Ukraine…We need American and Canadian producers to rely on now $MOS $NTR $CF $ADM $IPI
80% of its fertilizer imports come from Russia, Ukraine…We need American and Canadian producers to rely on now $MOS $NTR $CF $ADM $IPI
Russia's war in Ukraine could lead to a global food crisis $MOS $NTR $CF
Russia's war in Ukraine could lead to a global food crisis $MOS $NTR $CF
Mosaic Announces Quarterly Dividend Of $0.15 Per Share-Mosaic $MOS declares $0.15/share quarterly dividend, 33.3% up from prior dividend of $0.1125. Forward yield 0.98%
Security Council: Food Security | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases $MOS $NTR $CF
Security Council: Food Security | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases $MOS $NTR $CF $IPI $ADM
Security Council: Food Security | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases $MOS $NTR $CF $IPI $ADM
The banks collapsed in 2008 – and our food system is about to do the same | Food security | The Guardian $MOS $NTR
Putin’s Black Sea blockade leaves millions facing global famine $MOS $NTR $CF These fertilizer companies need to increase production asap
Putin’s Black Sea blockade leaves millions facing global famine $MOS $NTR $CF These fertilizer companies need to increase production asap
Putin’s Black Sea blockade leaves millions facing global famine $MOS $NTR $CF These fertilizer companies need to increase production asap
Moscow says opening Ukraine ports would need review of sanctions on Russia - Interfax $MOS $NTR $CF
Moscow says opening Ukraine ports would need review of sanctions on Russia - Interfax $MOS $NTR $CF
Moscow says opening Ukraine ports would need review of sanctions on Russia - Interfax $MOS $NTR $CF
Elevated Fertilizer Prices Remain, as UN in Talks to Restore Ukrainian Grain Exports • Farm Policy News $MOS $NTR $CF
Elevated Fertilizer Prices Remain, as UN in Talks to Restore Ukrainian Grain Exports • Farm Policy News $MOS $NTR $CF
Elevated Fertilizer Prices Remain, as UN in Talks to Restore Ukrainian Grain Exports • Farm Policy News $MOS $NTR $CF
Food shortages stemming from Ukraine war has world leaders scrambling $MOS $NTR $CF $ADM $IPI
4,000 pounds of fertilizer spill into river in southwest North Dakota…Guess producers like $MOS $NTR $CF need to react fast and pump at will to save this “Food Crisis”
Nations must ‘act together, urgently and with solidarity’ to end crisis of food insecurity $MOS $NTR $CF This “Food Security” is a Global Crisis
Nations must ‘act together, urgently and with solidarity’ to end crisis of food insecurity $MOS $NTR $CF This “Food Security” is a Global Crisis
Nations must ‘act together, urgently and with solidarity’ to end crisis of food insecurity $MOS $NTR $CF This “Food Security” is a Global Crisis
The Price Of Fertilizer Is INSANE & It's Hard To Find, So We Are Moving All We Can To Our Local Area…Live Truckers Video $MOS $NTR $CF
The Price Of Fertilizer Is INSANE & It's Hard To Find, So We Are Moving All We Can To Our Local Area…Live Footage From A Trucker $MOS $NTR $CF
The Price Of Fertilizer Is INSANE & It's Hard To Find, So We Are Moving All We Can To Our Local Area…From a truckers view $MOS $NTR $CF
World Bank: Fertilizer prices expected to remain higher for longer $MOS $NTR $CF
World Bank: Fertilizer prices expected to remain higher for longer $MOS $NTR $CF
World Bank: Fertilizer prices expected to remain higher for longer $MOS $NTR $CF
“Food security” is a national security. #India now halting wheat and fertilizer already doubled since 2021 we can see American fertilizer stocks reach news high. $MOS $NTR $CF
"Food security” is a national security. #India now halting wheat and fertilizer already doubled since 2021 we can see American fertilizer stocks reach news high. $MOS $NTR $CF
"Food security” is a national security. #India now halting wheat and fertilizer already doubled since 2021 we can see American fertilizer stocks reach news high. $MOS $NTR $CF
Yellen: Ukraine War Fallout Threatens 'Stagflation,' Hunger “Food Security” is a national security $MOS $NTR $CF
Yellen: Ukraine War Fallout Threatens 'Stagflation,' Hunger “Food Security” is a national security $MOS $NTR $CF
Retail Fertilizer Prices Remain Mostly Higher $MOS $NTR $CF “Winter Storm Brew”
Retail Fertilizer Prices Remain Mostly Higher $MOS $NTR $CF “Winter Storm Brew”
India Adds To Food Crisis, Boosting Agricultural, Fertilizer Stocks $MOS $NTR $CF
India Adds To Food Crisis, Boosting Agricultural, Fertilizer Stocks $MOS $NTR $CF
India Adds To Food Crisis, Boosting Agricultural, Fertilizer Stocks $MOS $NTR $CF
EU Warns Of Possible Food Crisis Sparked By Russia's War On Ukraine “Winter Storm Brew” $MOS $NTR $CF
EU Warns Of Possible Food Crisis Sparked By Russia's War On Ukraine “Winter Storm Brew” $MOS $NTR $CF
EU Warns Of Possible Food Crisis Sparked By Russia's War On Ukraine “Winter Storm Brew” $MOS $NTR $CF
Top Fertilizer Maker CF Industries Sees Two Years of High Prices $MOS $NTR $CF
Top Fertilizer Maker CF Industries Sees Two Years of High Prices $MOS $NTR $CF
Top Fertilizer Maker CF Industries Sees Two Years of High Prices $MOS $NTR $CF
Mentions
I'm mostly in agriculture by default, as a feature of being a farmer. MOS seems like a good long-term hold, and there should be a chance to pick it up around the 52 week low. Trump's lifting of phosphate tariffs is a negative optic for them, but has very little fundamental impact. As long as there is demand for grain, the world will need phosphate, and they're one of two major players in the North America market. It's not a market that's open to startups either.
Fed rate decision is good for my ENHA, ATAI, and MOS right?
It's nice if it goes together with other gains though... MOS regrowing helped me hit 3% yesterday
When xle and oxy rebounded this morning, bombs were guaranteed. Short interest on NTR and MOS also been declining. I’d guess we’re gonna see round 2 of the Fert Run and LnG
FUK, knew I shoulda bought more MOS.
Imagine a brokerage so powerful it can sell short $MU to exactly a 1000 because you are short calls. I have never owned $MU other than $SPY. I have never owned an MU call or put. I just find this current festinating AF and yes I am a pussy with all my money in Covered short $TLT puts, with one $MOS put.
Lulu? if they beat earnings slightly like for the past 17/18 qs price won't react evidently, so the only call thesis here is if they turn around their US sales guidance. Seems to me they have been barely hanging in the air by compensating the slowed US demand with international sales. Regardless, it's already DCF priced in bear case with not much MOS but might be worth buying shares long term for a turnaround. Nike, Adidas... everything is down comparatively, but since Lulu is growing internationally I think there is more potential long term and it has fallen more in the last year 60% vs Nike 30%... but Nike fell more before. It was priced like a high grower not too long ago & Burry bought at 240 and still not admitting his loss. If they don't stabilize the declining US sales tho it will go down. 1st q is always the weakest if you look at at history revenue so I wouldn't bet on calls. Wyt
$TLT 7/17 85 covered secured puts $MOS 6/26 6/26 cash secured put why is the font for $TLT shorter than $MOS
Clf was frustrating. I do this for a living and it’s one of those stocks that looked like it should work, but it hasn’t. Could say the same about MOS as well (though I know the industry too well for too long, so I was much more skeptical there). A reminder that no idea is so good to break your position sizing discipline for.
I share your thesis, although I am diversified into other sectors as well. But definitely overweight natural resources. CF is my fertilizer play, but I,might pickup aome MOS as well. I bought a bunch of RIG when it dipped under $3, which is basically the same as ownong VAL now with the oending merger. Still think it's undervalued, especially if our shared thesis is true. I also went with EXE to get some natural gas exposure. Still interested in picking up a lot more in these sectors and if they tank on news of thr Strait of Hormiz opening I will be going on a buying spree.
I held both and only got half rich. Still holding plenty of bags and taking profit on MU shares at 69 cost average. The bags could still go big. For example PSTV. Another example of a stupid cyclical I’m bag holding is MOS and yet another I’m almost finally out of is CLF. But my MU makes up for all the bad decisions as long as I gradually take profit when it gets to that irrational exuberance level.
And by proxy Fertilizers too. So NTR, MOS and if you want a direct sulphuric acid play ECVT. Howver if this latest peace talk happens then all bets are off.
OXY's the contrarian energy play. fertilizer's the cleaner version of the same thesis. $MOS $CF $NTR have feedstock exposure and the workarounds (reformulations, red sea trucking) are happening regardless of oil. disruption hits fertilizer fundamentals before OXY's earnings.
Why is MOS down if there is a potash and fertilizer shortage?
Futu is not an honest company. Let me demonstrate: look at HK0001095352, HK0001095360. Vs the [website](https://www.99fund.com.hk/main/hkweb_new/zh/products/CUAMSIF/fundgl.shtml) they are literally showing the wrong graphs because the I graphs look better without the sawtooths. Now look at MOS, where does that 52w low even come from, a parallel universe? And the one thing that really irks me as an HKer is their marketing stuff have mixed simplified/traditional chinese next to each other all over the place which means they don't fucking proofread before production.
CDE, HL and MOS buying if red... could double by year end
OKLO and ASTS moon bound. Leaps in both and MOS too because we’re all fat down here and need to grow shit so beef cows can eat it then turn into burgs
Cf and NTR are the primary. I have been building a MOS position as well since it dumped. It’s a buy imo at 20-22$. Been buying shares and calls. Idk we’ll see what happens there.
IDMC Unblinded actual MOS and IR Data from the Interim Analysis (60th Event) - told all industry participants Gps works.
I wonder if MOS will ever go up. I know some people bought into it because of all the oil stuff (fertilizer play). But man that stock has been a piece of shit
I exited my csp on MOS today at a scratch profit. Not trading them again unless they dip below 20. Literal shitco.
MOS... primed for liftoff after earnings
I really need to quit reading news sites for investments. The so called "fertilizer shortage" from this war was another bust. Fertilizer is in abundant supply and my investments got spanked. Oh well, at least my oils covering my losses on MOS and NTR. How do you guys tell when the news is telling the truth and when it is lying these days? It's tough with lobby groups pushing narratives.
CF NTR IPI seem to all be better fertilizer plays than MOS after the Earnings Reports. MOS might have some structural problems; they’re getting it on both the input costs side while not being reaping sufficiently from the higher prices for output.
MOS as it is already down and should be propelled back up
MOS is the worst for fertilizer plays. If you are gonna bet on old world stuff you actually need a brain. In particular your chemistry knowledge is lacking. The key idea is looking at what their inputs are. MOS sulfate business is affected by sulfur shortages. NTR is the better play because of their huge potash reserves. CF is also a better play because it uses North American natural gas to make fertilizer which is dirt cheap. The earnings and fundamentals for both CF and NTR are so much better than MOS as evinced by the latest earnings. But I think energy is a good play this summer, but you will probably see a wave in the old sectors. Oil stuff goes up in the summer, then fertilizer goes parabolic during the fall planting, then food staples get affected by supply shock so staples go up in early 2027. If you want to be a degenerate just do S&P puts with a strike price of 600 and an expiration of March 2027. BTW, anyone saying that this falls apart based on Hormuz opening, that’s BS. We already flew off the cliff. Be ready for the west coast of the US to have oil shortages in mid June, and the rest of the country by mid July.
I sold puts against Rocket Companies, Couer, Ford and Newell and so far so good. So I am now selling a 22 against MOS. No way this goes tits up.
Some regard here said MOS was the play during the war, i went all in at 27 avg. They better be right lmao
My chemical company is currently planning for limited supply of sulfuric acid domestically. Looks like domestic manufacturers like CF or MOS might do well?
Traded it a bit in the early days of the war.y.obly exposure now is potash royalties own by altius minerals. CF is a huge beneficiary of the war because their urea based fertilizer. This is what was disrupted. NTR does mostly potash and is a decent trading proxy, but is not as big a beneficiary. MOS has some other problems they're working through. IPI is an interesting small cap name trading at book value and probably offers the highest torque up if potash takes off. My two cents. The war already sent urea prices into the stratosphere. Not sure how much overlap there is for farmers to use potash, but the potash supply hasn't been disrupted.
Yeah, I'm holding CF and currently up about 10% so far. MOS has been getting beaten up bad recently, not sure why exactly
I wish you luck as I tried that exact same trade earlier late 2025-early 2026. I gave up & dumped $MOS for nearly a $10k loss in mid March and added that cash to my $VXUS dip buys. The trade should work. It worked extremely well for $CF and $NTR. I was prolly too impatient.
Anyone else playing fertilizer? I picked up some MOS, because I expect the Iran conflict to steadily increase potash prices for a while, and any escalation could send it soaring
The only fertilizer stock that I ever traded, was MOS. And that's only because MOS is a military acronym that I know and love.
Jesus MOS how the hell is this thing just free falling every day with a supposed fertilizer shortage right around the corner? I definitely picked the wrong pony for this race. Thing hits a 52 week low daily.
Death, taxes and MOS being red. The only constants in this world. Really should have picked a different fertilizer play for the "fertilizer shortage" that's supposedly going to happen any day now.
Bought MOS sept calls. Just to warn everyone that it's going to continue "price discovery" to the downside.
MOS really is just gunna keep crashing and burning eh? "Fertalizer shortage", "rising prices", "higher prices for longer", and the companies like MOS and NTR suck.
I'm finally buying SPY calls. Its time to join the side that makes money. Expiring Monday, 711 strike. Calls on SPY, Calls on NTR/MOS, I think oil is going to be flat until more escalation.
I bought 30k at 28.6.. saw it go to 32. Then now to 24... yesterday I closed my 2x Amazon etf for 40% + and this MOS is just a limp volumeless dud... I'm holding till end of June regardless unless it goes under 23.2. The dividend is not bad for waiting out the rotation to this sector. But will it come?
I actually bought 40 shares of $MOS at about 23.50 and sold at a little over 24. I thought because they are US based they wouldn't be so effected by the supply issues the war is causing. I sold because I felt like it was still a tad early, and put the money in other investments that seemed like better bets at the time. However, I may repurchase my position if further research and outlook / sentiment is positive
No more than everyone on military subreddits putting their MOS or rank. Or people that post photos in uniform on social media. All let people know what clearance you have
Market today: ASTS up, MOS/NTR/CF up, SNDK down, AMD down
My MOS is the army is 420A
Cant find that MOS dd, did it get removed or just laughed out of existence? How is it trading so much lower than its book value?
Huh, guess I should have sold my fertilizer and oil plays. That said MOS has to start getting some love soon no?
AIG, MRNA, MOS, PYPL, TTD, according to Google Finance
MOS. It's sulfur is secured and coming from the US not the middle east. Its biggest competition (in Morocco) is cooked.
Also phosphate is pretty cyclic and q2 is not the best. Also transport costs will be higher and if prices are too high farmers might look for alternatives like organics. MOS production capacity for sulfur is also limited. I'd rather look into organic fertiliser companies like rizobacter (part of bioceres BIOX)
Oh look another idiot who doesn't know shit about the history of the company and all the scandals its involved in. Why? Well simply put, he instead of relying on the one thing that is capable of thinking decided to replace it with a thing that uses Reddit as its source of truth. Unfortunately for him, the other reddit posts that were used to train the LLM were written by retards or other idiots that used LLMs just like you OP. Maybe, just maybe? You should take the hint that MOS is not going to 60 a share.
I like MOS. I may be bagholding some myself. I grabbed some Jan 25Cs to exercise if it much higher. Also commons. Nothing too fancy. Also down bad on some June 35Cs but lets not talk about those
The directional thesis is right — US phosphate producers benefit from Hormuz disruption vs Gulf-dependent competitors. But this post inflates the case at every turn. The CF Industries "cheat code" is dead. That 725K ton/year Henry Hub-indexed ammonia contract was terminated effective Jan 1, 2025. CF exercised its contractual right to end it back in Oct 2022. Mosaic still has ammonia supply arrangements but it's not the locked-in sweetheart deal described here. Book value is wrong. BV/share is ~$38, not $24. The stock is trading at 0.65x book. That's not a "floor" — it means the market is already discounting these assets. The $400/ton "conservative" profit math is made up. Sulfur was $496/long ton and ammonia $625/mt as of Feb 2026. Mosaic's own management guided to a $250M EBITDA headwind in Q1 from sulfur alone. Stripping margins are at 5-year lows. You don't get $400/ton net margin in that environment. What's missing from this post: Mosaic is idling Brazilian operations (−1M tons/yr output). Q4 2025 was a $519M net loss. Net debt up $829M in 2025. CapEx is $1.5B this year. USDA is calling them a "duopoly." Farmer groups are lobbying to lift duties on Moroccan/Russian phosphate. And if Hormuz reopens — which could happen any week — the entire thesis evaporates. MOS dropped 5-11% on the ceasefire announcement alone. OCP cutting 30% of Q2 capacity is real. The $840/t DAP sale is real. But this reads like someone with a position dressing up a geopolitical coin flip as a sure thing.
Even at normal supply chain, MOS was a good buy. Low p/e, steady growth and increase in fertilizer demand with global warming and population growth
MOS has settled into a tight range for the last 4 weeks as it bounces off it's 52low. At this point I'm just hoping to get to 30 so I can close out my calls and move on. Holding May & June Calls 25 - 27.5 price point
I buy a call which lets me buy 100 shares of MOS at $35. I paid $100 for that contract. MOS goes up to $60. I now have a contract which lets me buy 100 shares of Mosaic at $35, but the market price is $60. Thats $25 of profit per share, times 100 shares makes the contract now worth $2500.
Not hating, looking for genuine discourse cause this has come up for me too and have a small position and looking to add. Why do you think markets aren’t waking up to this yet when so many people are clearly aware of it - my Twitter is full of people banging the ag trade with names like MOS agro and CF being shared a lot. institutions with millions to billions at disposal to pay for research know these things and the second and third order effects of global crises like the one in Hormuz. Is it all because mos has such bad books and the market is waiting for absolute confirmation on this thesis to play out? I’m trying to understand why it hasn’t really caught a proper bid on this thesis being a clear possibility.
MOS is phosphorus.
My own IA generated argument: * The market narrative positions MOS as a beneficiary of the shock in the Gulf due to the reduction in the global supply of nutrients. This is a first-order correlation that overlooks the cost structure. Unlike nitrogen fertilizers (where natural gas is the primary input), Mosaic’s potash and phosphate operations rely on energy-intensive mining and a massive global logistics network. Crude oil trading at over $130 per barrel is not a bullish catalyst; it is an operating margin destroyer—a cost that MOS cannot fully pass on to the final price. * The farmer is not an inelastic buyer; faced with rising fertilizer costs and a credit squeeze, he engages in "soil mining" (omitting applications of phosphorus and potassium for one or two cycles). Mosaic—lacking the retail diversification possessed by NTR—is a purely cyclical asset exposed to an immediate contraction in sales volume. Good luck. I'm out
I am too regarded. Can you summarize in a way my mind can make sense? Buy calls in $MOS?
MOS importance to agriculture and it's valuation is juicy... I'm in!
I agree with you that sulfur imports vs US based are different. My thought process is more that when US based companies see what global sulfur is being bought for, they will use that as justification to raise prices on their own manufactured products. I'm not fully aware of how MOS setup their contracts or if they have sulfur locked in at a set price. I will admit I know nothing of this industry, which is why I might seem more negative that I should be. Most of my knowledge is in precious metals and certain types of tech stocks. I'm more than willing to try and understand other perspectives to possibly open up a new sector of stocks that I can make money on.
China recently announcing sulfuric acid restrictions might see these stocks move this coming week. · Ecovyst Inc. ($ECVT): One of North America's largest producers of "virgin" sulfuric acid, also offers regeneration services. · Martin Midstream Partners ($MMLP): Produces high-purity "Electronic Grade" sulfuric acid (ELSA) for semiconductors in Texas. · The Mosaic Company ($MOS): A large fertilizer producer that manufactures significant volumes of sulfuric acid as a key part of its operations. · LSB Industries ($LXU) & CVR Partners ($UAN): Chemical and fertilizer manufacturers that also produce sulfuric acid internally. What are your thoughts?
More regards need to worry about fertilizer. I need my MOS calls to print lol.
A little fun reading for those of you that can. Yes it's written with AI; hold my beer. **CPI drops tomorrow 8:30 AM. Here's what happens to your calls.** |Scenario|Headline YoY|Core YoY|Odds|SPX Does|Your Calls| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |Priced In|3.2-3.5%|2.5-2.7%|45%|Fakes down, recovers|Survive. Theta wins again| |Actually Hot|3.5%+|2.8%+|20%|Drills 1.5-2.5%|Pain. Real pain| |Cooler Than Expected|<3.2%|<2.5%|25%|Rips 1-2%|We feast| |Oh God Oh No|Any|3.0%+|10%|Circuit breaker vibes|Wendy's application| February was 2.4% YoY. Consensus says 3.4-3.7% for March. Sounds terrifying until you realize oil went up 63% in one month because of Iran and everybody already knows that. The headline is cooked. It's priced in. Core is the only number that matters and the Cleveland Fed nowcast has it at 2.5%. I'm holding MOS, STNG, and UPST calls through this like a man who has already accepted his fate. Also have SPX puts as a hedge so if it goes sideways at least something prints. The move tomorrow isn't about the number. It's about whether core is hot. If core is under 2.7% we gap up by lunch. If core is 2.8%+ I'll be behind the dumpster at Wendy's looking for a frosty.
Somebody check on the MOS guys. I don't think this is going to end well for that stock anymore
sharing my retarded positions so yall can avoid them: PUTS: MOS $23 4/10, DAL $57.5 4/17 Call: SPY $700 4/13, WTI $3.50 4/17 There is no strategy, these were vibes based purchases
Aggressively bought OXY,SLB, BKR, HAL, VG, XOM, MOS, NTR and CF because when you’re down 25K, what else are you gonna do? I doubled down because taco doesn’t matter I have the 403 457 for rational investing https://preview.redd.it/dzn582t1j2ug1.jpeg?width=1320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9cd84f055b2fa227545d6350e7379b8d86f035de 2k going in tmrw
I bought MOS 2 weeks ago, posted that one. See my profile history, its there. Uh - basically once ber markets hit I dont do high risk things. High risk things only work in uber bull markets, otherwise you just lose money. I'm mostly an index and chill type of guy recently. I went cash gang in feb (mostly). I rebought half my indicies (ish) on monday this week, looking to rebuy the rest next week. Basically-markets changed.
Oil: OXY, VG, SLB, BKR, XOM Fertilizer: NTR, CF, IPI, MOS
Been indexing / not active much recently. The only active investment I have made is MOS \~2 weeks ago, which isn't really high risk. My indices I sold out \~685, in feb. I bought some of them back on Monday, probably buy the rest back next week (?). I'm unsure what is going to happen after this 2-week ceasefire -- nobody does. I'll probably be back with high risk investments once we get a clear bull market. Risks are too high for me to do high risk things right now, uncertainty is still high imo.
Someone do a vibe check review on the port😮💨 KMI, EPD, MOS, IAU
MOS, IPI, NTR CNC, OSCR, MOH Holding plenty of oil already
MOS gonna lift off now
IPI and MOS gonna take off now
3. Aero Mexico rerate coming 2 STVN wrapper for glp1. new factory. Pill isn't nearly as effective 1 MOS potash 0 CCOI wavelengths for interconnected data transit. 25% each. Just takes 1 x5.
One week closer to famine, one more week in $MOS.
MOS makes phosphate and potash, neither of which go through Hormuz. They also use ammonia and sulphur as one of their biggest inputs into DAP/MAP which are impacted by Hormuz closure / energy prices. So their costs are going up and while eventually phosphate prices have to increase to account for the global rise in input costs, it doesn’t really directly benefit MOS (unless we are talking about second order effects of higher corn / oil prices bc of biofuel demand). If you believe Hormuz will be closed for an extended period of time just buy CF which is a pure play domestic producer of nitrogen ferts.
MOS, NTR, CF gonna pump now
Heavy into $MOS because this market is full of \_\_\_\_
Cant post cuz my karma is too low, but $MOS has domestic sulfur and gas contracts, our domestic production is at all time highs, and sulfur is a byproduct of oil. Probably nothing though would love to see more shorts
People are aware, not just in this sub. The price of everything that travels through the strait will skyrocket and yes a lot of companies will eat it but they have already likely hedged enough against this probability. The futures market exists to allow companies, farmers etc…to either hedge or get paid in advance for a product to be delivered later. Long $OXY, $XOM, $XOMO (weekly pay YieldMax ETF based on $XOM and $MOS (Brazilian fertilizer with upside in rare earth mining). Thesis for $XOM and $XOMO is rising oil prices will offset disruptions and their LNG plant in Wyoming produces ~20% of helium in the world while Qatar LNG plant had 30% of supply taken off-line and thats used in etching in semiconductors. Most exposed are TSM and SK Hynix and Samsung in memory since 65% of their helium comes from the Middle East. I was considering shorting semis and still might. $OXY has ~15% of exposure to the Middle East but its concentration in US shale will give it room to go vertical soon. $MOS is simply a Brazilian fertiliser play whose previous earnings were due to one time costs and sulphur issues but with ~30% of fertiliser passing through the Strait, the price will skyrocket and its low valuation trading at a PE of about ~14 compared to industry average of 19 it seemed like a good choice since it has zero exposure to the Middle East. Also, joint venture with a mining company may yield huge dividends in rare earth metals by 2030 meaning that it may be a candidate for a longer term hold as a hedge since China currently does almost all rare earth minerals mining and building out mining and processing for these materials. Without them no EVs, semiconductor shortage, etc…
Loading up more MOS calls.
I believe MOS has some other issues right now. The chart is mediocre. NTR had a nice uptrend on place before the war, so I like it a bit more. CF is the most impacted, but IV has gone crazy as people figured it out, so I've been using NTR as a decent proxy. It's only a few days max, since I only went out 3 weeks. Still have June calls on ADM as well.
I lost my shorts buying $MOS. But, I think $NTR is a good gamble as they have been hitting on earnings. I hope the trade works for you as the macro thesis should work. I've decided to buy $CORN and $WEAT instead due to less volatility. ETF's for me over stocks since I think macro more than study individual stock spreadsheets.
MOS climbing on good volume. I swear if that guy is right and I didn't buy shares and now I don't want to FOMO into it. Gonna be really sad.
Nitrogen based fertilizers are locked in at the Strait. MOS doesnt produce nitrogen based fertilizers. Why would MOS be a long?
There was another person posting about MOS a week or so ago. One thing to note is that CF and MOS are affected differently by the war. CF uses more nitrogen which is directly affected by the war, and MOS uses potash which isnt as affected. The other thing (as someone else here said) is the price of fertilizer will affect the demand. As price goes up, farmers use less or just switch to other crops.
Probably also good to remember that 50-75k troops isn't an invasion force. "Tooth to tail" for the military is 1:8, so out of 50k troops about 5500 are combat MOS / Invasion troops and the other 44,000 are support, logistics, admin, etc.
I have been sitting on $MOS calls for three weeks now and it hasn't moved much. Probably going to expire worthless.
I dabbled in MOS last week but have gotten out yesterday. The thing that’s different with fertilizer when compared to oil/energy is that pricing is inelastic. If the cost gets too high for certain types of fertilizer, farmers pivot to other crops and materials rather than chase prices up. So it actually puts pressure on fertilizer suppliers when the prices go up rather than inflated their revenue and margins.
I was looking at MOS tonight. In 2022 I was holding a lot of IPI and did really well but MOS looks like a better set up this go around.
I throw in the towel with my 3Oil last friday, it'll probably go higher but my nerves couldnt take it and i double my money. I have ported it into: Mosaic $MOS - betting fertilizer will go up Nutrien $NTR - betting fertilizer will go up Archer-Daniels-Midland $ADM - Betting food will go up Star Bulk Carries $SBLK - because it sounds like a space ship
So farmers have to pay more for nitrogen based fertilizers during the war? MOS fertilizer sounds like the go to of farmers if that's the case.