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$ICL Is the only company in the fertilizer market who keeps beating earnings and is growing! Compared to its peers $MOS $CF $IPI
$ICL Is the only company in the fertilizer market who keeps beating earnings and is growing! Compared to its peers $MOS $CF $IPI
$ICL Is the only company in the fertilizer market who keeps beating earnings and is growing! Compared to its peers $MOS $CF $IPI
Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI) - a rare gemstone.
IPI is an overlooked gem, will fly high with the current global conditions/sanctions/food shortages.
$NTR, $CF, $MOS - AG Fertilizer Bull Market 2007/8 vs 2022
80% of its fertilizer imports come from Russia, Ukraine…We need American and Canadian producers to rely on now $MOS $NTR $CF $ADM $IPI
80% of its fertilizer imports come from Russia, Ukraine…We need American and Canadian producers to rely on now $MOS $NTR $CF $ADM $IPI
Security Council: Food Security | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases $MOS $NTR $CF $IPI $ADM
Security Council: Food Security | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases $MOS $NTR $CF $IPI $ADM
Food shortages stemming from Ukraine war has world leaders scrambling $MOS $NTR $CF $ADM $IPI
IPI seems to be a good play (considering also the war global tensions, possible food shortage, sanctions etc.)
Fertilizers are still cheap. NTR, MOS and CF with 7x to 8x forward P/E and 10% free cash flow yields. Economic moats. Food inflation.
$MOS MOS. MOSIAC, IPI, CF , overbought status
In a world of scarcity, panic-buying of things in short supply, Potash is an essential fertilizer and there's not enough. NTR, MOS, IPI
Russia-Ukraine Conflict Adds More Pressure to World Fertilizer Market $MOS $NTR $IPI $CF
Russia-Ukraine Conflict Adds More Pressure to World Fertilizer Market $MOS $NTR $IPI $CF
Russia-Ukraine Conflict Adds More Pressure to World Fertilizer Market $MOS $NTR $CF $IPI
BOXS will be a huge runner over the next few months. Undiscovered Lithium play...
Mentions
Oil: OXY, VG, SLB, BKR, XOM Fertilizer: NTR, CF, IPI, MOS
Is IPI the new pump stock of the Month?
Ha ha RDDT made it on the scoreboard but not IPI. But in reality this means *I should go to bed.*
My hot dog has a first name, it’s IPI. My hot dog has a second name it’s RDDT, nah just kidding it’s IPI.
Midnight restart! IPI IPI IPI IPI I just can’t stop talking about IPI, weird huh?
Well $IPI is not pre miner…sorry
MOS, IPI, NTR CNC, OSCR, MOH Holding plenty of oil already
IPI and MOS gonna take off now
I loaded up on NTR, IPI, CF, OXY, BP, SHEL, BPR, VG
I was looking at MOS tonight. In 2022 I was holding a lot of IPI and did really well but MOS looks like a better set up this go around.
I’m looking at IPI and NTR seems like they ran up like crazy in ‘22, not sure about CF
Oh yeah, no. I don’t buy leaps, was trying to be helpful on area of market. So SHEL, BHP, IPI? IPI looks a little overbought. Dunno.
LMT, IPI, GEV, PWR. You are welcome
Is IPI a good fertilizer investment with oil being expensive?
These Fert names... powder keg status again $CF $MOS $IPI $NTR
Trimmed $EWY to buy $IPI. I love volatility. Do not follow my trades here.
You should check out IPI.
Sold CF for 97 and IPI for 32 not too long ago. Seeing them at 138 and 48 today really sting.
Same here! I don't see IPI mentioned very often.
I bought a company called IPI intrepid potash a year ago anticipating something stupid like this would happen. I thought the issue was going to be just our dealings with Canada where we get most of it not the rest of the world.
This guy fertilizes. IPI is a nice one too. I'm also loading up on lithium LAC and graphite NMG.
$IPI was the other stock I almost went half/half with. I was looking $ADM but that keeps running too. I might buy $WEAT but that just wheat futures ETF and you trade that. It wouldn't be a potential buy & hold like $ADM where you could hold for an extended period of time if the trade went against you. I'm checking out $VG now thanks
Added IPI (Potash) today. Been trading UCO since last week, added VG as well and holding for now. Can't depend on this fickle admin to do anything right, might as well make some money and cut some of the losers (too many right now).
The fertilizer industry is picking up CF: 9.16% MOS: 10.08% YARIY: 4.34% IPI: 8.08% NTR: 4.23%
Same, bought it along with Nutrien. I should have added IPI as well. Fertilizer prices are still relatively low compared to other minerals.
You better be buying the below stocks: $IPI $XOM $COP $OVV
Not sure why you're getting downvoted you're 100% correct. There's going to be absolutely massive shortages of a lot of goods in the coming months because of the blockade. Food prices are gonna skyrocket later this year. I'm invested in MOS, DOW, CF, and IPI in anticipation of these coming shortages
IPI and NTR fertilizer is going to moon. The gulf states are going to spend stupid amounts of money getting oil production back on line later HAL SLB BKR If the desalination plants really get wrecked FLS ERII
Fertilizers are also rocketing, MOS, NTR and IPI.
I bought calls on CF and NTR. CF makes ammonia fertilizer and that's the most impacted type. The price action reflects this. I bought NTR because there is no price action yet. I went with very small amounts of calls because either I'm right, the straight stats closed and they moon; or I'm wrong and don't lose much. CF and UAN are the two biggest direct beneficiaries. MOS less, but would be fine if all prices go up. IPI is a nice small cap.
I've even dipped into IPI previously, might buy some in the morning. Potash is food, food is life
literally sold all my IPI and some of CF shares on thursday. my guess would be they go boom on monday...
just two days ago i sold all my IPI and some of my CF shares. i imagine those stocks are going to go big on monday. damn...
IPI is the big small cap name. LXU has a fertilizer wing, but it's on the ammonia side of things. MOS is the big us name. There's also one name, FRPH that has mineral rights to some potash mines, bit also has a real estate business. Lots of insider buying recently too, including the CFO which is promising.
60 day IPO ban if you flip an IPI with the first 30 days of ownership
Pre-IPO, such as being an employee and given them? Or IPI shares, sold before being publicly traded? I know I had the chance to get IPO shares for having so much Karma, and never took them up on it
Every IPI is guaranteed to double. CHYM: 🤷♂️
I realize tomorrow may depend on IPI Predictions?
Would now be a good time to buy up stocks like IPI and MOS? As far as I can see these 2 companies do not rely on imports/exports for what they do. They may be the saving grace for domestic stocks in this area.
I hope these fertilizers and potash do a moonshot. I got a single IPI call 💪
I'm not kidding when I say the only way to make money for now is to watch what DJT posts on Truth Social. If DJT says to buy then buy. The days of fundamentals like PE and insider buying are so gone. Ticker symbols I'm buying up: IPI, MOS (minerals that farmers need and both of these companies are heavily domestic regarding their minerals so no tariff issues - both have other reasons to more than double in the next year) Also I'd suggest buying up gold, silver and copper ETFs. Look into cybersecurity stocks like NET and PANW. Cybersecurity is going to be a huge need in the coming years. Powell will not ever lower interest rates unless we achieve an equal or less than 2% inflation rate for a period of time. Powell does not realize the days of 2% inflation **are gone**. So I could see us, short of having a trade war induced recession/depression, have no rate cuts until well into later in 2025. Even then it is a loose loose because that means the markets have probably slid another 10%. I'm not kidding by the way when I use the word depression. People have no idea our interconnected our world is regarding things. These tariffs, even the mention of them, will have lasting implications. I expect other countries to start trying as much as possible with their closer allies and within their own countries to try to build and farm what we export. There may come a day when we try to rebuild the relationships but that day may not be possible because we will not be seen as a superpower to be trusted again. That and the fact nobody is having kids, people are living longer who are already alive, etc... Yeah the next several decades do not look super positive.
Call on potash. The US has potash, we just don't mine it $IPI
IPI-Intrepid Potash. Only US producer and 90% comes from Canada. Pretty tough to grow food in America without Mexicans and Canadian fertilizers
If you are looking for one that SHOULD boom, look at Intrepid Potash (IPI). They are the only US producer, 90% comes from Canada. If you are going to kick out the Mexicans and stop importing food, you are going to need fertilizer. IPI is the only domestic producer
Anyone else in on IPI? Potash based in the US?
LAC (lithium and minerals) and IPI (potash)
I’m buying IPI. US potash company. 90% of agricultural potash is imported from Canada.
Will add to calls on Chinese EV makers, biotech, IA, consumer. Potash trade (IPI, MOS) may be short lived as Trump will lift sanctions on Russian potash. Short consumer stocks (xrt, sly), tsla, travel stocks (pcln, etc), restaurants, builders, RE. Long European and EM stocks. Long euro, pound, Swiss francs, yen. Qqq is a safe haven for now but will collapse eventually.
**Intrepid Potash could be a good play tomorrow. $IPI**
Yea good point, I edited my comment. I had the idea for IPI as a tariff play for a while now. It was like back in october when I first looked into it. Now that I'm thinking of it I ended up confusing IPI being the only pure US producer with being the only game in town. Mosaic for example has the world's largest potash operation in Canada
IPI, I've been following it since right before the election. Oddly enough its about the same price as it was then. Even today the price movements make no sense going from tariffs are being delayed a month to no, they are indeed happening tomorrow
Getting ready for the next round. Hard to borrow and calls are getting assigned early. In their last 8K from September filing they confirmed that the IPI lockup is until December 10! (I originally thought the lockup was until September)
Their “certificate of incorporation” is fake. [Here’s the real one](https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/document-api-images-live.ch.gov.uk/docs/q-PIaXr7AmVj-IxLQ95DV0p3825APSia5bPvMfxfQOI/application-pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=ASIAWRGBDBV3DNXFU3FU%2F20240702%2Feu-west-2%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20240702T071813Z&X-Amz-Expires=60&X-Amz-Security-Token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjELb%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2FwEaCWV1LXdlc3QtMiJIMEYCIQCV3Oh%2FUlXRpzEY6MVTEktNO9GN84NOiyfsE%2B6w3tNZ7gIhAOaXUQxE6hSEhfvTvL5imIVnJ%2FL1Yh9wjl8MXI0T8d5UKrsFCG8QBRoMNDQ5MjI5MDMyODIyIgxfjfPc0M2q67bezFsqmAV6QpRq62m2pkT71vOy%2FK5ElXdhamyg3LEXWYt7wyF35EOfxCL1fcioJKrLTQ66a7LzIFyJIgRFbFXBa2LNBxX4HyTanhVnqJl8f1iQjvgMCoUKYw9pFANnNjSPxtIq5IHeL4%2B0Q7WOgD%2BVq5BRQYfoh%2By0xUt89VYPsGYF4Z%2F8x0E825%2BB%2Frxwn5onio7nXnWs3szNAKgy2KlubAxL7%2FhTWD0zm%2Bf3cH2gwMvO2EX3ebwVJ%2FplTWPA0lpZLV2l4x%2B9ZaYxrzHju8qYYu04Ke7NNLQXcaqtWOaWmQGGv0PHFQSqiZ1cRWQtoUd5T3FxwfYQ8q8ucLRBILFMa8pHg7Oj%2BTQFmie5QiaEUDQ08Y%2B1gEHF51IViU9ub46ha3XX1fxgvcYHWSSvH4thBwlUyc1VgtlDLyKVBeNeShuDBL1sPgMN4d6sjV6VMlvkvYlHH8tgoyutdR4EXn3RWb%2FFows7LFShqBqn2dz942iB9XiAfYTL3YUTJXmowrqhNwwVRnzlpu5dnu8yRTWgIhAOlunKdx1TR4WIMfgYmQXgtYJR31yru4Jcf9tk6D2Nj0MCnlgG4zyr3sKWdgSIAIwAocrPTWyhPeRfuB%2BoKVB17ZUBihE2XffaKYzjybZFnHpudcJtOtc8X8jX0mu1PwQpFKk45ljlhNwAy95%2BVuMffF9LMiizlMRpp1oQVT4ZzG4Yr5%2Fh%2B0jzccBMkGgG148hBNEmU3wyb6H%2FDqun7cn8f5VkIcbBGMwORCwawhFM0bobqBOs%2BvqZif8ql%2F1hoB9st%2FNklUpE%2F9MpMCYw394Js3PMIAM8tBXDDLaNGumA0SfRkdi9tPVkVPYWKBwxZdoH9fBgujNyvGHO28KDuQpWu%2F77G6jfqhsuusSNMNWtjrQGOrAB4CMnSs6JYssrSvO9KHGwwdAL9xn9HB5VyJ9gs0946%2BY8tZNJAguNMj0ltAEn2XnAKSsHD6u%2Bprasg2YFqEPeMqPxg2SKq5pLDAStHtxsJXFc3CT52gE5pYJSfjMd6C%2FTtSaaVgPoATeUF7bFTRhO92q47dwy66%2Fe6HjWbah5UJu1ABEdjFUk6scRfLx2S1xqUYODPFLBppBdpXcuHNnP%2F8IPI9kei6i6b3s3anelosM%3D&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22companies_house_document.pdf%22&X-Amz-Signature=d26320023d8c8f105dc240cd6f9b226501ce7b9a5559a989321bd7e657c9d024)…it’s a totally unrelated company
Trash going IPI - here comes the banning -
IPI got shite loads of Li in their brine. They've been pouring it down the drain for decades. Gonna double their profits when they start getting it out and to market. Then there's the gap at $300 which is gonna fill before it crashes back down to earth. Ouch.
IPI thought it was a big time Lithium company for five minutes. Now it's just a shitty fertilizer stock once again.
You mean to say you had cash that you wanted to make you money, sitting around during this time, not making you money? Not even money market or some kind of defensive ETF? Core funds have gotta be fully allocated into something. You don’t have to VOO and chill like most people if you’re bearish. You can protect yourself against inflation with commodities or treasury ETF’s. You can become more heavily diversified with equal-weight exposure ETF’s like RSP if you believe the index is too top-heavy. You can pick up individual stocks if you think they’re a good value. I think the mistake you made was seeing the news, and instead of making an investment decision based on it, you didn’t make a decision. My personal opinion is that growth stocks have seen a meteoric rise over the past three to four weeks due to the options market cranking leverage into short puts and is therefore overbought. My medium-term outlook on the market is still bearish on growth and bullish on value. Rather than sit around not buying VOO, I’m shopping for underpriced industrials with moderate exposure to municipal projects, as well as potash (eye on $IPI). I have a good amount of cash in money market because I’m perfectly happy with a 4% or greater return on my cash just sitting there at extremely low (virtually zero) risk. I also picked a great stock earlier in the year that has appreciated 25% and also recently distributed a 7% dividend (WOW!!!). Sometimes, not having a position is a position, but for that long of a time, at some point you need to develop a strategy that embodies your outlook and deploy the capital. VOO and chill is awesome if your time horizon is infinity, but if you’re looking for low-risk yield, there’s a ton of great stuff out there for the defensive investor. You’re gonna be fine. Just get that money to work!
Get a nice newish used car you know how to work on for a few grand. I buy all mine on Facebook and have done well. Put 10k in a place you can pull it out of that pays interest and keep a maintenance amount in just a checking. (A lot of people don't like this I guess I see why) I like to keep an amount I can maintain in my checking for me it's 8k if I dip below that after bills I re evaluate until I'm back over 8k. Being poor growing up and making all my money on my own I don't want to form a bad relationship with money or feel like keeping good personal finances has stolen something from me. I'm not sure that makes sense but it's hard to feel like you have what you need without a benchmark of what's safe. Or where home base is for a shitty analogy. When my checking gets up to 10 from 8. I'll either buy something I've always wanted or invest it usually I'll invest it. However it's still nice to have a signal that you can do something for yourself or family. Even if you start at 3k get to 5k invest 1900 and go out to a nice dinner. It's nice to feel a payoff and not feel like you don't know your direction. If you get a job that matches a 401k take advantage. Open a Roth and set an amount you see fit to contribute to that as well at your age. Find stocks you like and understand companies you understand. I like LRCX, Pten, IPI, TSMC and Exxon. I like these companies at different times for different reasons so don't just dump money into them. This isn't the best advice you could get but it's the best I can give. It's led to me owning a nice home and 2 vehicles at 24 from nothing but also a good paying job since 18 with no kids. Maybe some of this can help you, I wish you well.
Elephant Oil is another play directly to the south of ReconAfrica and just north of Sintana's onshore play in onshore Namibia.They are going through an IPI right now
E.g., all the people bearish on PYPL look real smart lately. But I'm perfectly okay and proud to admit that I am long on PYPL. And CVS (another hated company). [Our friend /u/drew-gen-x went long on IPI](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/15ir5gm/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_aug_05_2023/jv0wwwa/?context=3) and did quite well for himself (packaged goods). Not invested in it but DIS could do okay at today's prices. Or BAC.
energy sector like chevron CVX agricultural sector like intrepid potash IPI for example
I think you are right on the market correlation. 1 - I did hear about the Canadian/USA port issues for potash. But we have potash miners in the USA in $MOS & $IPI. 2 - Yeah there were drought issues in the midwest, but here in Iowa we have gotten some decent rain the last couple weeks, so I think that fear is subsiding a bit. 3 - I think the Russian lack of a new grain deal along with market correlations is moving the fertilizer market higher. Otherwise fertilizer stocks should have moved higher much earlier. It's making me think $ADM might be interesting investment here. 4- You put much more research into the micro than I do. I am just looking at macro trends. So don't put much faith in my opinions. As I am usually way too early in my calls : )
CRDF, OTLK, IPI great for the last days
I took a capital gains loss and sold out of $IPI over 2 months ago. I did unfortunately put over half of that cash into $MOS at about a 25% premium to today's prices. Phosphate prices have bottomed before potash prices have. Mosaic is more diversified that $IPI as their revenue comes from Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes and not just potash. $NTR would also be a good diversified choice. I like $CLF over $X since Cleveland -Cliffs also owns/produces from 6 iron ore mines b/w Michigan & Minnesota. $X doesn't own any iron ore mines that I am aware of. While cheap iron ore prices are a benefit for $X over $CLF now; we aren't always going to have low iron ore input prices. With that said; I have decided to go with International Paper tomorrow as a buy over Cleveland-Cliffs. The current market cap of both is pretty similar $7B vs $10B. I think paper/cardboard for shipping may rebound before the commodity prices for iron ore & steel. And I work for a company that is a shipping partner for $IP. Their revenue is prolly down per volume sold; but volume shipped is still fairly strong.
On the other end of the spectrum, IPI is a mining company with hard assets that are worth 3x its current market cap. When you throw its goodwill into the mix, and its future profitability, its real value is 8 or 9x its current market cap. With fertilizer being a recession proof item on top of everything else, this is some real deep fucken value right here. Regards and apes could pump this to $100 a share and Congress would have to explain why they are upset about a company that's barely over fair value.
Calls on NVDA, puts on IPI. If you can't profit off of mass hysteria and stupidity then what can you do?
I posted (no Chinese) IMGN at 5$ no big attention now at 13$… I mentioned IKNA at 2.8$ got downvotes… now at 7.4$ (this has the potential to go at 20$) a low float with 90% institutional ownership. I mentioning for some time CRDF and IPI (potash producer) And a Chinese one that has the potential to run big is CJJD Hope that helps
IPI max pain 28$. Buffetts fair value 68$$ More downside incoming$$$
IPI forward PE has jumped from 5 to 109 on the site I look at, with zero news or changes in the company or the industry. Is accumulation going on before a ramp-up in the Russia/Ukraine conflict, which will throttle supply (from that region) of IPI's core products forcing up prices and profits for all domestic producers? How the fuck should I know? I read WSB's every day. All I know for sure is right now she's going down.
IPI downgraded to sell. Let the down times roll.
Well I gave a gem some time back IKNA and yes it was not taking attention because of the constant pump posts on the same stocks. This will run fast (basically it is running already since I bought at 2.8$) and it is flying under the radar…. Then one day we see a 100+% up and we wonder “how I missed that”. Low float too. Look another one IPI (potash producer), no debt, free cash flows, legit/well established company, low float and can explode with the right attention… but none cares… they want to hear only about the same and the same again. Check only the two that I mentioned and tell me if I am wrong.
[https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2023/03/29/uan28-anhydrous-uan32-urea-prices](https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2023/03/29/uan28-anhydrous-uan32-urea-prices) Main take away " Leading the way lower was UAN28. The liquid nitrogen fertilizer was 9% lower compared to last month with an average retail price of $429 per ton. Anhydrous was 8% less expensive than a month ago with an average price of $1,036/ton." I couldn't find the link but Phosphorus prices have held up better than some of the others. I made a rash decision and took a loss on $IPI and have moved a lot of that cash into $MOS and $HAL.
I should clarify. I am bullish on steel than iron ore per say. You obviously know I'm more bullish on agriculture mining than anything else since I am the only one on this reddit group that is buying $MOS & $IPI. It's just that a lot of steel producers have integrated and bought iron ore mines with their profits. My bear case on copper is that renewable energy bull market may never happens due to their not being enough cheap copper to be used to make the new electric infrastructure to replace cheap crude oil, natty gas, and even coal.
$NTR earnings miss. EPS $2.02 vs $2.57 exp. Nutrien announced a quarterly dividend of US$0.53 per share which is a 10% increase over their last announced divy. The AG fertilizer industry is a mixed bag. $CF beat and $NTR missed. I own $MOS and $IPI over the other 2 that reported today. Very interesting.
i was about to say, i hope you have fertilizer exposure i scooped up some IPI last week but dude, NG prices shit all over the place
Someone brought 5 shares of IPI 3% above the closing price on Friday after hours. Fucken mental. Weakest fake pump ever?
Thanks for the thoughts. I remember reading that the fact that farmers didn't use fertilizers as much due to prices last year will eventually reduce production and cause food prices to rise the following year. So I assume eventually they will just have to use the fertilizer. I'm not looking for super high risk plays, which is why I was wondering about MOS/CF and less interested in IPI.
I like both $CF and $MOS and they are safer investments than my small cap $IPI investment. For transparency I do not own $CF. $MOS is however my 5th largest holding. $CF could benefit from lower natural gas input costs. However more ammonia and nitrogen production from their competitors overseas may also increase if natty gas prices continue to fall as some of those ammonia production plants in Europe may restart this spring. The arbitrage in 2022 for CF was that they could produce fertilizer in the USA using natty gas that was one third of the price as in Europe and Asia and ship that fertilizer overseas. It was a cheaper way to ship natty gas as natty gas was in essence turned from a gas to solid fertilizer state easier and cheaper to transport than LNG. Mosaic shutdown mining in a few of their Canadian potash mines 2 months ago citing too high of potash stockpiles in attempt to support price. Potash is only a third of $MOS fertilizer product line thou as they make significant revenue from phosphate and their mosaic fertilizantes. Farmers have been holding out on fertilizer purchases waiting for a price correction. We shouldn't have the fear of potash and phosphate shortage as we did in 2022 I would think. But as long as corn and wheat futures remain relatively elevated compared to the last 5 years or so, eventually farmers will pay the price for fertilizers as the downside risk in lower yields in corn and wheat is too great. They will complain about the fertilizer prices, but they will buy and this I believe will create support for fertilizer prices starting in March before the late April corn planting season in the Midwest.
A strong labor market is very good for Crude Oil demand. I just bought another 20 shares of Halliburton. It's time we are going to have to drill for a lot more oil. I also bought another 10 shares of $IPI. Potash and fertilizer prices usually always rise as we get closer to the planting season. Food insecurity is the one story the market has yet to talk about and price in for 2023.
Good tickers for a big run CRDF, IPI and IKNA
I added 10 shares of $IPI (Potash) and 30 shares of $AG (Silver) today. Those 2 commodity stocks are trading at nice discounts compared to 6-9 months ago. I re-entered a small position of 10 shares into $HAL deciding I was an idiot for selling out. Sold out of Verizon (25 shares). Commodities I believe will continue to run with a weakening DXY dollar regardless of what China is doing.
I already thought of this as part of the potential issues since the war. Ukraine produce would be affected, such as fertiliser, helium gas for chip production, energy, etc. and because fertiliser is the less discussed item, I bought into IPI at $120 or so. I think it’s price earning ratio right now is about 1.xx, while the sector’s is about 7.x. Sounds great, except I didn’t mention it is now at $32+. So yeah, I really don’t think the possible shortage of fertiliser is a particular concern only now, so many months into the war. If you think about it, the key market theme of defeating inflation would mean slower and less agricultural produce in order to keep the prices high (this shouldn’t come as a surprise if you knew about how farmers deliberately burn rice when there’s an overly abundant harvest). So all in all, I really don’t think this industry is going to sprout up in the near term, not until the inflation and recession risks are over, at least.
One play currently flying under the radar is IKNA, low float and 90% institutional ownership. They are aiming to focus on colorectal cancer, see CRDF big move, Mirati etc. when they had initial news for colorectal cancer.I believe will see a big move and with the tiny float will have some KALA moment 😉 Other names with good potential are IPI, CRDF, IMGN, ATOS.
What are your views on IPI these days? Also, do you know why their earnings went up so much, but their revenue stayed low?
Did I anticipate Fertilizer prices would fall this quickly? No. But I also didn't anticipate Gold prices falling like they did in 2022. I am using the same strategy I used with $GOLD with $MOS and $IPI. I stop buying until I see a potential reversal and then start adding heavily again. My $GOLD position is well into the Green even with tax lots bought as high as $25 in 2022. My $MOS position is in the Red about 10% as I still have tax lots bought under $30. For full disclosure I started buying $IPI again last week as it briefly dipped below it's 200 DMA. I believe we are in a commodity bull market. I do not anticipate timing the exact top or bottom. But I am looking at sectors that are outperforming the market. In fact there are quite a few sectors above their 200 DMA's. It is just that tech is so overweight in the S&P right now that it is dragging the entire index into a bear market.
That's why you need to diversify into the commodity stocks. As I mentioned above I like $GOLD, $CLF, $FCX, and $MOS over the $XLE stocks right now at current valuations. Anytime you are looking at any commodity stock/company, whether it is Crude Oil, Coal, or Gold; price matters more than volume. The price of the commodity the company drills/mines/produces will move the stock and company's profitability higher than the quantity of the commodity drilled/mined/or produced. $FCX makes way more money on the price of copper being up by 10% than their mining production being up 10%. Just look at all the $XLE stocks the last 2 years. Exxon didn't increase it's market cap by increasing production. It was the increase in the price of crude oil. Now I agree with you on the stocks P/E's looking low after the stocks are coming off ATH's in quarterly/yearly earnings. But you have to look beyond 1-3 years. Where is a company like $IPI or $AG, or $VALE trading at compared to 2, 5, or 10 years ago? Some of these stocks are trading at levels lower than 2017 when the commodity in question was trading at 50% discount to today's commodity futures price.
CRDF, IMGN, IKNA or IPI, let’s pick one ;)