XLF

capper78

The bulls have two days... two days to reverse this price action. They had better pump like they never have pumped. They better recruit every single PJ pumper they can. Issue all the price upgrades they can. Issue buybacks on crack. SPY weekly MACD currently crossing down, IWM weekly MACD currently crossing down, XLF crossing down, XLE crossing down, DIA (Dow) crossing down. The QQQs are the last one. And every megacap is sitting with a reversal candle today. VIX weekly MACD is about to cross up. I am not joking, this is it. This is the finale, the bubble popping. You read the stories of yester-year like fairy tales that this market could drop another 30%. Except its not a fairy tale. Weekly MACDs crossing negative is not some run of the mill technical, it means shit is serious its about to hit the fan. Last time SPY crosses down was JAN 2022, you know what happened. Its happening again, but this time XLE is finally joining the field. All this time, energy has been bullish and it coming to an end this week. I have posted warnings all year. [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsOGs/comments/11fi6op/comment/jajkcx8/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsOGs/comments/xqmzqp/comment/iqbiwy7/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsOGs/comments/11ke47k/comment/jbc5n8c/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) Get your shit together, don't dance, and bear the fuck up.

whatisliquidity

IV on XLF weeklies right near 46% I'm looking here for a scalp, maybe the Qs slightly OTM ⬇️⬆️, doesn't matter GOOG 1 week out 38% which might be a nice scalp SPY is gonna get soaked Or FOMC is a total nothing burger which would be pretty unexpected

646blahblahblah

Thoughts on 3/24 XLF 31p?

NW_Runner

XLF

capper78

Playing triple bearish shares on tech/semis for FOMC, will buy puts on any tech bullish pump after FOMC because its going to get faded. Staying away from SPY, XLE and XLF. QQQ Monthly upper expected move is 311.65 and the quarterly upper expected move is 297.34. All AI bois names are at or exceeding BollingerBands on both daily and weekly thus there will be algo selling pressure to fade any type of bullish pump. Add bearish divergence on RSI /Stochs to the mix.

kgopala1989

This is my ETF portfolio. I already have a separate account on Acorns that does index funds, so just trying to do some thematic investing on top of the index funds. SCHG VB IMCG XBI XLF CLOU EBIZ I may allocate more money to better performing ones over time, but starting out at equal allocation during this bear market.

Droo99

Well I think some things like biotech and commodities are riskier than banks in general. Banks are also risky. Not really sure why you are trying to identify the single "riskiest" sector, but you could certainly quantify that if you want. From the sector ETFs I have in my database, since 2001 it looks like Semiconductor Holders (SMH), Energies (XLE), and Biotech (IBB) all have higher standard deviation than financials (XLF). Telecommunications (IYZ) has the lowest Sharpe ratio. Consumer Discretionary has the highest return.

Xtrerk

I’m not an expert on banking by any means, however here is my opinion on the landscape over the next few years. 1. The banking industry will undergo heavy consolidation in the next 3-5 years. Regional banks will either be bought up by the large, national banks or they will buy up smaller banks and become large, national banks. 2. I don’t believe that rates are going to fall anytime soon. I believe that the fed is trying to normalize the current rate, which will ultimately help banks in the long term, with short term pin as seen before. My thesis for this is from how quickly the fed and treasury stepped in to resolve liquidity crunches. They have shown resolve to essentially support the short term pin for long term success. 3. I don’t like betting on any single stock, so I have bought XLF due to its banking exposure, but it also hosts adjacent market players that will benefit from a good banking environment.

heizenbergbb

Whales are jumping into XLF calls now. lol the rich win no matter what.

sonofalando

Imagine being a bear and buying my puts on XLF last week on Friday. Literally donating to my shopping fund. Silly bears 

InfamousMB

U sold puts on XLF? U degenerate mf 

sonofalando

I’m drinking vodka rn and leveraged to the tits on XLF sold puts I don’t give a fuck I m going down with this ship money be damned 

LehmanParty

For those of you who will be up all night thinking about your bank stocks, [XLF trades 24/7](https://i.imgur.com/YEFAi7E.png) and updates all night long as an EXTO stock

StonkGoUp

Regards were crying about banks all weekend and XLF closed green today  “JuSt wAiT tHe cRaSh iS comiNg” okay nerds, market stays dumb longer than you can stay dumb

gaurav0792

[XLF ETF Holdings List - Stock Analysis](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/xlf/holdings/) Look at the last few banks on the list :P

RunsaberSR

Bought itm XLF weeklies. This is how to make the monies, ?

borrowedbook1

No panic. All banks are insolvent. Never own em and this shit never happens. I've never owned a bank stock. XLF for a 24 hour trade maybe. You kids ahould be writing this shit down. You are not going to remember in 5 years

armen89

XLF has to be the play. All in.

hustlersambition9

SCHW, KRE, XLF and SPY all up. WTF is going on?

talm0

Nothing is ever fair value. Wait for things to get expensive before selling (NVDA, AMD) and for others to get cheap before buying (KRE, XLF). We ain’t there yet for either.

BulletPlease

Yolo of the week. XLF 3/24 33.5c. See you in Valhalla.

sonofalando

XLF $31p .54 premium VZ $36.5p .49 premium

sonofalando

XLF is apparently 24/7, but the order book and bid ask looks like a pool noodle 

ListerineInMyPeehole

Congrats on acquiring 1000 shares of XLF

sonofalando

Sold 10 XLF $31p close of business Friday. Gonna be nice and green tomorrow 

beefeater605

XLF calls it is.

Tfarecnim

> I cut my losses at 70%. A bounce play takes 1 - 3 months, not a few days. XLF contracts aren't even that expensive, aim for Apr - June.

Spiritual_Extreme_81

Next leg down for XLF Monday 📉📉📉

AustinLurkerDude

Funny this thread mocking big tech while massive bank stocks going to 0 over the weekend. At least CSCO, TSM, AMD, AAPL, GOOG, IBM , FAANG have tangible products and cash flow. I expect large cap tech ETF (VGT) to go up 10% this coming week while banks tank (KBE/XLF).

GoogleOfficial

Lol. GSIFI going down is not bullish. KRE and XLF going to gap down, if yields continue down expect NSD outperformance, could still be down.

World_Chaos

Sofi 5 strike PUT 156 contracts deep underwater by 50% XLF 32 strike PUT 10 contracts bought at close on friday after rolling out of some FRC that of course crashed under my strikes at 4pm from 23 to 18. Don't have any FRC over the weekend now :( CS 2.5 strike PUT March 24th 48 contracts. Had it since before they got backed by the swiss government and it went from 1.90 to 2.20 and now its back down to 2 flat. Lets see what happens monday... not much even to be gained from a 2 dollar strike can only go to 2 bucks its not even that great of a % win. CS 2.5 strike PUT March 31st 25 contracts. Same story as contracts above. Reason for purchase: Chatter from temple goers that theres gonna be a banking crisis. Reason for exit: Silver is 100oz or expiration comes first. Cheers !

World_Chaos

Sofi 5 strike PUT 156 contracts deep underwater by 50% XLF 32 strike PUT 10 contracts bought at close on friday after rolling out of some FRC that of course crashed under my strikes at 4pm from 23 to 18. Don't have any FRC over the weekend now :( CS 2.5 strike PUT March 24th 48 contracts. Hat it since before they got backed by the swiss government and it went from 1.90 to 2.20 and now its back down to 2 flat. Lets see what happens monday... not much even to be gained from a 2 dollar strike can only go to 2 bucks its not even that great or a % win. CS 2.5 strike PUT March 31st 25 contracts. Same story as contracts above. Reason for purchase: Chatter from temple goers that theres gonna be a banking crisis. Reason for exit: Silver is 100oz or expiration comes first. Cheers !

HaHawk

XLF 7DTE atm calls at open?

blah148

KRE is a regional banks ETF, and XLF is a basket of financials. Everyone here is telling you what to without knowing your timeframe and portfolio, but you should trade what you see.

10kmaniacsfan

As long as your positions are covered (i.e. you own 100 of the underlying index etf for each call option you write) there is very little risk above that of just buying the index. You are basically just risking not fully participating in a big move up in return for the premium each week. Try it for a few (or more) months. Set rules about which calls you write (dte, delta) and any rolling you might do. Keep good records. I do this on my core holdings of QQQ XLF IWM but not on VTI as the premiums are not high enough. It adds 3-4% to my annual returns but nothing too crazy.

PapaCharlie9

Here's what I record when I **open** a trade: date, trade description, opening debit or credit, cost basis, and IV. Where what I record when I **close** a trade: date, closing debit or credit, IV. Trade description: This is just the conventional notation of the trade structure and quantity, like -1 XLF 33/32p 4/19, or 1 XSP 390c 4/19. Cost basis: This is the loss target on the trade. Like for the XSP call, if I spent $500 debit on that but I'm managing risk to 20% of that capital, I'd note the cost basis as $100. I already have the $500 as the opening debit, so I have both numbers. IV: It's very important when trading options to note the opening IV, so if something unexpected happens, like the stock goes up but the value of your call went down, you can see if a big decline in IV might be the explanation.

pocketsleeves

I'm not saying that we're doing 2008 again, but XLF was reduced to a mere fraction of its pre-crisis highs.

sonofalando

I don’t care what fear you mother fuckers try to spread XLF is a fantastic premium machine rn

JudgmentMajestic2671

No single bank is safe. XLF or a bank ETF is the best play if you want to be safe.

danuser8

XLF, but the entire sector and chill

sonofalando

XLF

talm0

Spend every penny here on XLF and KRE here, at multi-year lows, due to panic selling cuz financials will never go up again *OR** buy NVDA and AMD here at 130+ p/e’s? If you can do this math you can be wealthy in a year.

pman6

i love how the market got a massive pump from bank bailout news. XLF rocketshitted to the moon today XLF completely dumped back down. whaaaa? where are the bank-faithful bulls?

ImRayShoesmithsSmile

Be American Buy American ^banks This call has been brought to you by XLF gang.

sonofalando

XLF is fake and 🌈 Also I have 10 $31p so I’m just petty for being a regard

DoesntUnderstandJoke

Puts XLF

ImRayShoesmithsSmile

just bought my first spread.. bought 06/30 XLF $35c sold $38c My thesis? Line go up but not too much. I'll probably loose my ass, just want to see how they work.

Coffeewin

Well several combinations: 1) P/C was 2.5 to 3 the entire last week, 2) sector rotation from XLE, XLF, XLV, and XOM into XLK, XLC, and SMH, 3) critical inflection point. All fuel for short covering. I'm starting to think MR short is negative EV but I'm gonna have to backtest that

bears2broke

#ITS LIKE 2008 BUT banks r fine Small bank business is fucked Big bank business is awesome with all the deposits KRE fuck. XLF #BEARS STUPID

sluttyseinfeld

How is XLF still drilling? These companies should benefit from regionals dying

putsRnotDaWae

If you want a more bank focused ETF it is KBWB. XLF has Morgan Stanley and Ibanks / trading if you want that.

Shapen361

Is now the time to buy XLF? I'm betting on the big banks stocking around but don't know which one to buy so I'll just buy them all.

daisy2day

Wouldnt that be XLF or KRE?

CancerTaurusAnon

buy more KRE, EUFN, & XLF

According-2-Me

So you’re saying I should have puts on $XLF?

Tfarecnim

Currently holding XLF, BTU, BOA and FRC (although that's more of a gamble than value, got in at 24.5). Also have some TLT, but that's not really a stock, but more of a hedge against recession.

Sh1tcanoe

XLF calls were a good idea right.. Right??

Mission-Mammoth-8388

Bank fear a big nothing burger. Backing up the truck on XLF

bears2broke

#XLF CALLS either I’m buying a cracked studio condo in Singapore or I’m eating rat ramen

GSpot_has_been

Dumped my XLF calls at open

olb3

I miss the posters who were dunking on everyone here yesteday saying it was still a great buy at $55. Most retail investors should absolutely not touch the distressed banks. If you want exposure, get KRE or XLF

crackcodyscrack

!banbet XLF 15% 100d

crackcodyscrack

Guys, can you confirm that energy was mainly responsible for lower CPI reading? My gamble: Energy will surge big time in the coming super hot months. !banbet XLF 15% 100d

borrowedbook1

Levels and market action. Plus I have a target cash/position ratio I started managing to. Right now I am targeting 40% cash and rebalance. That way I take profits or reinvest with minimal emotion. I should be taking some profits today but I rebalanced yesterday. I still might. I also try to regularly take profits out of this account. Just did ot last week. Stops me from doing something stupid! Good luck to you. Edit: I take losses quick and salvage what I can. My main positions are longterm bets, but occasionally I'll do a long hedge. Did it last week with QQQ calls and XLF calls for jobs report. Closed em for 80% and 30% loss on Friday.

1daBread

Probably go with XLF. I personally just bought the bank stocks.

Saaan

Funny 13F I found, Azora Capital out of Miami, FL with its Top 2 positions: \#1 XLF Puts \#2 SIVB – est average cost basis of $268.40 ​ At least they hedged. 

Simrealz

I told my friend that my portfolio was 50% TQQQ, 30% XLF, and 20% GOOG and he unironically told me I was well diversified.

Prestigious_Bison189

Why didn’t he just buy XLF , KRE etf?

Lost-Aardvark-7182

Is XLF a good play?

BrainsNotBrawndo

Hat tip to u/capper78 for [the correct prediction yesterday on $XLF hitting a bottom](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsOGs/comments/11qk69u/what_are_your_moves_tomorrow_march_14_2023/jc5q39q/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3) for banking ([Holdings](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/xlf/holdings/) of large cap financials but also includes $FRC and other small regionals)

secrtive13

Usually when a bank fails it doesn't automatically run back up to the price it was before the failure. But since this is the Clownverse here we are. I still believe in my XLF puts

BrainsNotBrawndo

Picking up a slicke of XLF in premarket. Helmet on, it's ride or die

capper78

The XLF has reached near its bottom for this cycle, but QQQ / SOXX is the next market to get destroyed.

optiontraderkyle

why do the picking? why not just XLF and KRE.

PoopGasMaster

Yeah he never really said what "good" cpi entails. I would argue inflation is bad but high inflation will ensure higher rates and thus my bear options will succeed because im betting on XLF puts 31.5

Spiritual_Extreme_81

XLF has 95% bearish sentiment 🤡 Buy the dip

donny1231992

This is one of the most REGARDED things I’ve ever seen in my life. BUY THE XLF DUDE

lipmanz

When does XLF look good

optiontraderkyle

no more cherry picking but i have been trading WAL & FRS and building a position in KRE and XLF. these are oversold. the regional banks limited their withdrawn will prevent the bank run

Churner_throwaway-

Why buy one? If you think large banks have dropped unnecessarily or are oversold, buy XLF/KBWB

MerlinFinanceLLC

Hey, it worked ;) $CMA 03/17/2023 57.50 P --> + 758.67% $FITB 03/17/2023 29.00 P --> + 614.75% $HOOD 03/17/2023 8.50 P --> - 5.17% $SPG 03/17/2023 110.00 P --> + 62.78% $XLF 03/17/2023 32.50 P --> + 118.57% $KRE 03/17/2023 49.00 P --> + 267.66% $VNQ 03/17/2023 80.00 P --> + 8.86% $TQQQ 03/17/2023 21.00 P --> - 34.63%

GreatTraderOnizuka

XLF short until monetary easing

oran12390

Thoughts on Banking ETFS? I'm generally avoid individual stocks so as tempted as Schwab is right now I was thinking of picking up some $XLF to capture this dip.

Bae_Sremmurd

Is anybody is giving you individual tickers, they are taking on additional risk for no reason. Just buy the KRE or XLF etfs and chill. They are diversified across the banks. No need to pick and choose.

nivek_123k

XLF. let the garbage fall out, and keep the performers. Picking only one at this time is a crap shoot. FDIC insures the depositors. Management and shareholders will pay the price.

brutaldude

XLF 📉📉📉 👀

Fit_Opinion2465

Long XLF? No big bank will be impacted by this

RememberSLDL

I bought XLF calls after selling my SCHW calls for a loss like a damn 🤡

Lost-Aardvark-7182

That’s it I’m buying XLF