XME
SPDR® S&P Metals and Mining ETF
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2022-11-18 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
2022-11-16 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
2022-10-11 Better Tasting Crayons (Mathematically derived options plays)
Starting a long term (25yr+) monthly DCA strategy. Need advice on ETF selections.
$SWRM Cloud Data Platform for Security
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Looking for some advice for metal etf like XME, XBM or PICK.
Are Commodity Futures Going Against The Mainstream Inflation Narrative?
Are CME Future Curves Going Against The Mainstream Narrative of Uncontrolled Hot Inflation?
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Sold everything in my Roth. Had fun yesterday buying leaps on SPY, GOOGL, XME. Had fun reducing my risk, picking a few select stocks, and actually putting the bulk of my money into funds yada yada. Switched to my brokerage annnnd I’m back to being depressed. It’s such a piece of shit in comparison.
This is my copy pasta as it was asked the other day somewhere. Gold starts... Copper confirms... Lithium bridges... Oil follows. Silver hit a high 11/13(?, damn close if not right) so the question is this a breakout or a fake out? Where I am from we treat stocks as global assets. So we have to zoom out a bit to delve deeper. China is ripping this year. Europe leads the pack. Latin America is also breaking out fresh multi-year highs. Meanwhile the U.S. has been the laggard. I remember 2011 well. Silver mania was wild. Once the bubble burst, silver collapsed 68%. The Silver Miners ETF (SIL) dropped more than 80%. Now here we are, back at the same level. It only took 14 1/2 years. Any chart you look at is price in U.S. dollars. That’s the American view. If you really want to gauge if this break out is real, you have to look how silver is doing around the globe. And in Euro, Silver has already taken out the 2011 highs. It's at its highest level ever. You're seeing the same thing across the board: Silver is making new all-time highs in British Pounds, Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, even Chinese Yuan. If Silver is already breaking out in every other major currency, it's hard to argue it won't eventually do the same in U.S. Dollars. That’s how I see it. ( I recently closed a Silver LEAP from 2024 for a 500% gain.) That’s the playbook we used with gold. Before gold broke out in USD, it was already hitting all time highs in other countries. That was the tell. I will dovetail from where I started. Gold miners, uranium, steel, copper, lithium... they're not just outperforming. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is up 140%. The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) is up nearly 84%. The SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME), the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX), and the VanEck Steel ETF (SLX) are all up between 74% and 78%. While the S&P 500 sits at plus 17%, commodities are screaming that the global market structure has already changed. Now look at the Energy Select SPDR Fund (XLE). Two years of consolidation, volatility compressed... sellers exhausted... resistance tested over and over. Every major energy move in history started this way: a fading dollar; commodity leadership; improving risk appetite; and a sector that spends years preparing for the next leg higher. XLE hasn't broken out yet. But everything around it already has. It’s the last domino. Breakout or not, the message is clear: This cycle is shifting toward real assets, hard assets, and energy. Now you know what I know.
Gold starts... Copper confirms... Lithium bridges... Oil follows. Silver hit a high 11/13(?, damn close if not right) so the question is this a breakout or a fake out? Where I am from we treat stocks as global assets. So we have to zoom out a bit to delve deeper. China is ripping this year. Europe leads the pack. Latin America is also breaking out fresh multi-year highs. Meanwhile the U.S. has been the laggard. I remember 2011 well. Silver mania was wild. Once the bubble burst, silver collapsed 68%. The Silver Miners ETF (SIL) dropped more than 80%. Now here we are, back at the same level. It only took 14 1/2 years. Any chart you look at is price in U.S. dollars. That’s the American view. If you really want to gauge if this break out is real, you have to look how silver is doing around the globe. And in Euro, Silver has already taken out the 2011 highs. It's at its highest level ever. You're seeing the same thing across the board: Silver is making new all-time highs in British Pounds, Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, even Chinese Yuan. If Silver is already breaking out in every other major currency, it's hard to argue it won't eventually do the same in U.S. Dollars. That’s how I see it. ( I recently closed a Silver LEAP from 2024 for a 500% gain.) That’s the playbook we used with gold. Before gold broke out in USD, it was already hitting all time highs in other countries. That was the tell. I will dovetail from where I started. Gold miners, uranium, steel, copper, lithium... they're not just outperforming. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is up 140%. The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) is up nearly 84%. The SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME), the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX), and the VanEck Steel ETF (SLX) are all up between 74% and 78%. While the S&P 500 sits at plus 17%, commodities are screaming that the global market structure has already changed. Now look at the Energy Select SPDR Fund (XLE). Two years of consolidation, volatility compressed... sellers exhausted... resistance tested over and over. Every major energy move in history started this way: a fading dollar; commodity leadership; improving risk appetite; and a sector that spends years preparing for the next leg higher. XLE hasn't broken out yet. But everything around it already has. It’s the last domino. Breakout or not, the message is clear: This cycle is shifting toward real assets, hard assets, and energy. Now you know what I know.
Just gold? Well gold does correlate pretty well with XME, a mining index fund, but I'm seeing a similar spike for rare earth companies and graphite, and some mining-adjacent companies like battery producers.
Emerging market ETF, pick your country. Copper, platinum, uranium. XME, NXE, VWO, URA, BHP. GLD if you want some gold, even if it has run up. I’d stick closer to silver and platinum (I’m already at 4% gold in my port). Somewhere there is a quote, buying right always feels wrong. The times are changing. These trades might not feel great for another few years. I have just begun to trim my winnings and move into commodities and energy.
Yeah, I’m out of all the precious metals right now mostly because of the volatility they see. I owned XME, PPLT, PALL, URA. They all went from like 15% profit to -10% over the last two weeks. I’ve been selling them off with these rallies to dollar cost average the loss because I just want to get out of it now. Sorry about your losses, man. We will get it back. At least you’re talking about it. That’s a good step.
Sorry, I don't give much thought to what tickers *are*, just what they're currently *doing*. I say 'much' because I don't touch crypto, and I've been burned by cannabis years ago, but then, those never make my 'smoothness' screen. They're always at the top of my 3m sort, don't get me wrong, especially crypto, but they're so choppy that even before I've looked at the ticker I know it's crypto or MJ. But yeah, I was surprised XBI screened in, because it's Biotech, another sector that's burned me in the past and I no longer touch (biotech/pharma, that whole space). You say "XBI seems quite volatile," but does it? On that graph? Or is that your past experience talking? Because here it is plotted with XME, Metals & Mining, which I hold now, and URA, uranium, which I've traded recently. [XBI, XME, & URA](https://imgur.com/a/QmIdX0b) Which trace is smoother? Building that chart just now I had a bit of an epiphany myself, about the beauty of ETFs. We know they let us see sector trends, but sectors are often buffeted by outside forces, so that even if a company is doing well, it's going to be affected by how its sector is doing. But in Biotech, where there's really nothing working 'for' or 'against' the sector in the short term, then the sector trend plugs away, benefiting from the general success rate of the companies within it, but we don't have to individually gamble on which companies are going to win over the long term. We know that breakthroughs and innovations are happening every day, and the ETF lets us participate in that. Or something like that.
How much rare earth is in XME? It's about 12% of the fund - MP Materials at 5% weight and a handful of other odds/ends at around 1-2%. Rare earths have been sold off in recent days and gold/silver miners (about 18% of the fund) were sold off significantly yesterday.
Yes, and yes. Not a bond person now and never have been as bonds have their own issues. I am retired Roughly an and portfolio is all in equities ( stocks and etf’s ). Most of the individual equities pay a 4% or better dividend . I own the usual ETFs, ie VOO, VTG , VUG, and XLG so I am getting full market exposure and a very healthy dose of AI, robotics, health and technology. Also good chunks of GNR and XME as materials are not going to go away.
I am jacked to the tits in SETM REMX GDXU XME and various gold and silver related calls. I picked my poison, no more fucking stop losses, even if it puts my jacked tits in a sling.
but bubbles are filled with air.... these companies are making money hand over fist off of this. the risk is that they depend upon a single factory in China for their trillions in market cap. if China closes that factory, it all goes to zero until they get a new factory so they can make more chips. it would be great if instead of investing in each other's companies they actually invested in mining operations which are required for their business to function... and that is your hedge. I didn't notice any market decline on Friday because I was long XME as a hedge against SMH. when SMH goes down on geopolitical reason xme skyrockets twice as high
China halting AMF and NVDA production is 50/50 right now. Market prices it at 0. that is the risk. buy XME calls and you will win either way
There is no bubble. But, whatever it is will be popped when China shuts off rare Earths. there will be zero chips produced... so the only obvious hedge is long mining companies. XME vs SMH correlation. if you were in xme, at an equal weight to SMH you did not notice any down move on Friday... I don't see why this is complicated
Congrats that sounds really cool. This is basically what I’m trying to replicate right now. I only have about 10 grand in my portfolio, but I have a couple core strategies. One is breakouts on single factor momentum stocks but the other is momentum and breakouts on commodity ETFs and buying long calls. I have been able to develop a couple indicators that are robust and align with my momentum breakouts. I have been able to beat the market in my first month with making a lot of mistakes. But it’s easy to start to notice patterns and find opportunities in all of these ETFs like gold, silver , URA, LIT, TAN, XME. Even lower beta ETFs like QYLD that is a NASDAQ covered call strategy that pays a good yield. There’s a lot of freedom with these ETF products and ETPs for a retail person
they probably just wanted something that was like catchy you know... I mean my justification was that China would be cutting us off from rare Earth minerals because Donald Trump would start a trade war with China, and we would have an acceleration of the global macroeconomic trends that have been taking place over the last decade which could be compressed into several years... such as dedollarization, money printing, massive political instability leading nations to acquire lots of defense products. coupled with the fact the United States is rebuilding our entire nuclear arsenal but does not have enough uranium to complete the task, which means that there needs to be a massive increase in uranium mining. Russia used to be our top source for enriched uranium for nuclear plants, but that's no longer an option... in Jan/Feb my core position moved to EUAD, KDEF, ITA, SMH, XME, GLD, SPY, UDN. With some other fun stuff like Uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu stock
It was my first day doing this Up 1.5% around 10 am est, down 3% now with some early buys on DAL that dropped nearly 6%, but hedging on XME and GDX saved me. Holding my DAL around 59.6, hoping it’ll hit 60 again by Tuesday or Wednesday Crazy thoughts??
XME is volatile now but DAL is primed for the buy. Crazy how it all just tanked across the board
Just closed out XME at 105.5 up from 103.3 literally 30 minutes ago. Hahaha all the way to the bank Big for mining/domestic minerals??
I was laughing along with you, I hope you realize that. I used to sell at 30 days and 60 days (always at 80-delta), but it felt like those were too volatile, so I made for myself "never less than 90 days." So you might consider that too. What you said about the IV of LEAPS Calls being higher made me curious, so I went and checked some that I trade. Couldn't get close to 60DTE today, so I went with the 71DTE vice the 50DTE expiration: |Ticker|71DTE IV|463DTE IV| |:-|:-|:-| |GLD|21.3%|19.7%| |XME|31.0|30.2| |SMH|36.1|35.6| |MAGS|29.0|32.0| |TLT|16.0|16.3| |GDX|41.1|34.6| |IWM|24.6|26.0| Some higher, some lower, so I don't think IV is the reason that LEAPS are "so expensive." It's simply because you're buying more time at 365 days out than 60. But even though it's more theta you're buying, did you know that the theta-per-day is lower for LEAPS Calls? That's what makes them attractive: it costs you less per day, per week, per month to own them than shorter-dated Calls. Here's the numbers for the first 3 tickers above, choosing an 80-delta (or closest to) strike in each expiration: |Ticker|71DTE theta per day|463DTE theta per day| |:-|:-|:-| |GLD|8.9 cents|5.6 cents| |XME|4.2c|2.0c| |SMH|12.4c|6.8c| Averaging those up, it costs 4.8 cents per day to own a LEAPS Call, vs. 8.5 c/day to own a 71DTE Call. That's 77% more "overhead" if you will, owning the 71DTE Calls. And vega I don't even want to think about, because I don't think it matters. Take care.
Finally know why my $XME has been blowing up since April
Playing it safe after some bad decisions with XME ETF, up 6.4% in a week and doesn’t look like it’s slowing down.
As u/Playful-Emu8757 said: please elaborate! 78-delta, huh? That would be easy to implement on many of the things I trade, like GLD, SILJ, and XME, which have close enough strikes that I could pick a 78-delta Call over an 80-delta. And sell when they've made 250%?
For the most part not true. Have you ever traded anything with a wide B/A spread (and what's "wide" in your opinion)? What happens? The Market Maker steps in and makes a market at Midpoint. Or close to it. And Midpoint is Midpoint whether the spread is 2-cents wide or 50. And do you even know what the spreads are on these ETFs that trade millions of shares a day? (GLD, IAU, GDX, GDXJ, SLV, SIL, SILJ, XME) And so what if pay a nickel more for a LEAPS Call than I "should" have: do you have any practical knowledge of the leverage these things give you? On GLD it's 5.9 times after adjusting for Delta (the 466DTE 80-delta 340C). Let GLD move up just a penny and already the option has made that nickel back. Apologies for coming down so hard on your flippant remark, but I want others who might read it to know the real story. Tomorrow when the market is open I'll do some trades and post what my fills are and what the spreads are. RemindMe! 1 day
Let me lay out for you what I do. This'll be long, so grab a Coke or something. Use [Barchart to screen ](https://imgur.com/a/barchart-etf-screening-VbwTWxy)for good-performing ETFs. That's a short video I'd put together on how I do it. I sort them by 3-month performance, but look at 6-month charts. You want 'up' of course, but 'smooth' mainly. Just look at the charts, and don't overthink it. [Momentum persists](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927538X18303998?via%3Dihub#preview-section-references), and this way works as well as any other. Pick 5 for some diversity. Then buy Calls: 80-delta minimum, ALWAYS. A year out is best, but 100-120 days is okay. Divide up your money into 5 chunks and buy that many Calls of each. If you want (I do), sell Calls against them. Not exactly "Covered Calls," but they behave exactly the same. I'm just looking for a little extra "juice," so I sell them at 16-delta, which is the 1SD point, or the Expected Move. And you're 'supposed' to sell those 30-45DTE, but at the very least, lean hard on the 30 days. I do 2 weeks. Buy the short Calls back when they've lost half their value. Sell some more. Many ways to handle the long Calls, but this is what I do: When they appreciate, their Delta goes up. As soon as the strike below them (a higher strike) gets to 80-delta, I sell the current Call and buy that new one: I've rolled UP. That takes profit out of the Call. When you have enough of that profit as cash, buy another Call (then of course sell another 'CC'). You don't *have* to do that, but it puts that profit to work in new positions, rather than leaving it locked up in the old Calls. When time passes and the original Calls get inside 1 year (or 100DTE), then wait till there's enough profit in them to roll them OUT in time, back to 80-delta in whatever timeframe you're working in. Here's a nuance: Only buy LEAPS Calls, those that are a year out or more. Take profit out of them as before. But *now* when you have enough profit, buy a 100-120DTE Call. 100-120DTE isn't as safe as 1 year, but what you're doing now is using *house money* to play those. Your main investment stays in the 80-delta LEAPS Calls, but your "play money" is in the closer-in-time, riskier Calls. Try it with GLD (or IAU) and/or SILJ, or the precious metals ETF XME. You'll be amazed at the returns if current trends hold.
A lesson I've had to continually re-learn over the years is that ETFs are better than equities. Based on your mix, I think you may know that too. But there's still something about those high-flying tickers that draws us to them like a moth to a flame. But I'm done with them for good this time. Too much"single-issue" risk. A missed earnings, an accounting scandal, an ill-timed tweet by the CEO: the stock drops 10% or more. With "basket of stocks" ETFs, you don't have that single-ticker exposure. Because of course a single company might only be 5 or 10% of the ETF. Now, you can have "systemic" risk that affects everything in the ETF, and that's why I avoid the ones that are particularly vulnerable to that: like cannabis and crypto. **With the leverage of LEAPS Calls** *we don't need ETFs to go up much before we're making a great profit.* Right now I've been loving the precious metals and their miners: GLD, GDX/J, SLV, SILJ, XME - there are others. Then SMH, MAGS (there's your Mag7 exposure), IGV, & IWM. IWM is actually a great example of what I look for in a chart: see how smooth it is? Up 20% in the last 6 months, and 2.7% in the last month. Its 444DTE 200C at 81-delta is giving Delta-adjusted leverage of 3.5x. So you take that 2.7% and multiply it by 3.5 to get *9% in the next month* if the trend holds. That's 'enough' return, isn't it? That's why I like ETFs. Take care.
Mine : GOOG, AAPL, MRNA, XME, XLU, MSTR
I've been loving gold since March, so I'm in **GDX, GLD, IAU,** and also **SILJ** and **XME**. In fact, I just calculated this evening, and 87% of my holdings (nearly 90k) are in precious metals. So yeah, if you like the price action, then just buy some LEAPS Calls and hold on for the ride. u/sam99871 said 90-delta, and that's fine, but I think most would say 80-delta. That's what I use anyway, and **never less.** Because that's plenty of leverage. And that leverage cuts both ways, always remember that. Have you bought LEAPS Calls before? Do you want to buy them for the LTCG tax treatment? Either way, go out to the 448DTE Dec '26 expiration and grab the 60C at 80-delta for **21.10**. Or slide up to 90-delta and take the 51C for **27.75**. Not a lot more, and a good bit safer. Do you know how to calculate the leverage these long Calls give you? (Spot / Call price) x Delta (74.68 / 21.10) x 0.80 = 2.8 The Call will appreciate 2.8 times as fast as the shares. And with GDX doing 21% in the past month, that could translate into 58% if it does it for the *next* month. Pretty stout.
I've been long **GLD** LEAPS since March 5th. Such a beautiful chart for the prior 18 months. Then April and the doldrums. But I held through, steadily selling CCs, so I'm glad for the breakout. I'm also in **GDX, IAU,** and **SAND.** That's all for gold, but for silver I'm in **SILJ**. And for general metals, **XME** and **WPM**. This precious metals run has a while to go in my opinion.
I second **GDX** and **XME**. **XLU** has been good to me, but this little dip lately hasn't been fun. Mostly I wanted to second this: >I use LEAPS to add leverage to...ETFs. ETFs often get overlooked, but many of them actually have great returns: **GDX** 106% ytd, **XME** 52% And some don't: **XLU** 13% ytd But add the leverage of LEAPS Calls and watch out! For **XLU** you get 5.3 times leverage, adjusted for delta. So that ho-hum 13% becomes 68%, which is more than solid. Then sell low-delta Calls against them if you like, for a little extra juice. ETFS are quite a bit safer than individual stocks, because they don't have "single-issue risk." I use Barchart's ETF screener on 3-month performance (Has Options, Volume >1M shares), then look at their charts till I find **smooth** ones. Going up, of course, but 'smooth' takes precedence over return. Some others I like right now: **SIL/SILJ, MAGS, MCHI, XLC**
Depends on how you want to play it. Personally I use LEAPS to add leverage to low IV stocks or ETFs. I've found XME, XLU and GDX to be great. I also love using LEAPS on dividend stocks, because although you dont get the dividend, the dividends effects on the extrinsic value is such that you can buy LEAPS with basically no theta, which in turn means you can aggressively sell against them, knowing at any point you can exercise for close to nothing and allow the shares to be called away and start again. BTI, CSCO and HPQ have been solid choices with that tactic for me, although it should work with any dividend stock you like that pays over 4-ish% yield.
Firstly, don't screen for *options*, screen for good **underlyings** first. Then Barchart (free) is good for that. ETFs are much safer than individual stocks, so I'd rather see you searching there. And don't worry, when you play ETFs with options, you'll get PLENTY of ROI. At Barchart: Across the top, click on ETFs. In the pulldown, left column, halfway down, click ETF Screener. DE-SELECT the Double-Long, Triple-Long, Double-Short, and Triple-Short. Leave Short checked. "Add a Filter" row: "Has Options" "Volume >1,000,000." Click "See Results." Change from "Filter View" to "Performance." Sort by "3M %Chg." Click the "flipcharts" button at the top right of the list. Set Chart Type to Line. At the left, leave the timeframe pulldown at "6M." Then skim through all the charts and find ones that are going up kind of smoothly. Don't look at the names, just the price action. (Because your love of crypto or whatever could influence your choices.) Ones that I think are subjectively "good": SIL/SILJ, XME, maybe GDX/GDXJ, MAGS I have real money in all those, playing them with options. Have fun!
Since it was hectic today: They were going very hard buying XLF XME GDX in mutli million dollar call buys
I'll add on to u/Krammsy's reply and say Yes also. But what is a "PMCC farm"? And it sounds like you may have too many positions on. I know that it's preached to us that we diversify ("diversify away the risk"), but at some point your return will just be that of SPY or whatever. To get excess return, I think you need to focus on the best-in-class investments. For me, that means 10 stocks, or 5 ETFs, as I laid out above. It sounds like you're thinking properly about non-correlation, but I'm not sure that doing it to an extreme is worth the extra effort. Here's how I do it, in case this helps: Running the same ETF screen as I did above, "has options," "500k volume", "sorted by 3-month performance," then just looking at charts, I start picking tickers like this: XME, SIL, --whoops-- "Isn't XME heavy in precious metals? It is, but keep it for now...GX "Silver Miners"... GDX "Gold Miners" ... SVXY "I don't like playing the VIX" ... MAGS, ASHR, KWEB ... "Whoops, there's another China." Like that, at a macro level, I certainly don't dig into their holdings. And to your last question: Yes. About 30 - 45 minutes each evening is what I spend across 3 accounts with 24 positions, though some are duplicates of each other. Mainly the 'tending' is setting up new CCs for tomorrow because the ones I had on came off with their GTC BTC orders. And then checking that the underlyings are behaving and that my long Calls haven't lost too much. It sounds to me like you're very much on the right track, but maybe back off on the analytics a bit. It really can be as simple as setting up those GTC BTC orders and selling new short Calls. And cutting the occasional position and screening for a new one. And the "screening" part, if it's mid-week, is usually just plowing freed-up cash into the best-performing instrument in that account. On the weekends I'll spend more time screening for new things and thinking strategically. Best of luck to you!
I've been where you are, and I could just tell you to stop, but you won't. No offence meant, we've all had to try it. If this journal will be a page-per-day kind of thing, go out about 6 months and pencil this in: "Buy Calls at 80-delta on quality underlyings. At least 3 months out, but a year is better." Then try to forget that and do your best with CSPs (and the CCs you should try to avoid, ala u/ScottishTrader, but won't always be able to). When you tally up your performance at that 6m point, compare it to any of these ETFs from now till then: XME, VNM, SIL, GDX, MAGS Nothing especially special about those 5, they're just going up smoothly over the past 5 months since Liberation Day. Calculate each one's 6-month returns, average them out, then multiply that by 4. Because that's the *minimum* multiplier you would've gotten from 80-delta Calls on them. Good luck on your journey! (And just to hold myself accountable, I'm going to put a 3-month RemindMe on this. 3 months because it will be long enough to prove the point, and short enough that I *might* remember what I was talking about.)
Hi Sam, thanks for chiming in with some great insights! Yes indeed, markets rise, but that means stocks rise too, because they make up markets, right? So yeah, one could pick any old ETF right now and it'll probably go up "over time." But I think "how much time" becomes the question. Okay, so look at charts and find an ETF that looks flat for the last month or three. Then in x years it should be higher. Or find a chart that's actually going up, and then you the "momentum factor" PLUS the general uptrend of stocks. I see it as just giving yourself all the benefits you can. This just came to me, but kind of like selling a CSP: it's always touted that stocks only do 3 things, and in 2 of those cases the CSP wins. Yes, "most years as a whole the market is up." (Except 2022, and some other examples.) And Yuen touches on that, actually going to the extent of saying that there really haven't been any TWO year bear markets in recent history. So he buys LEAPS 2 years out just for that reason. Because what are the odds of 2 bad years back-to-back? Good point about SPY/DIA probably being safer, but I'm actually long VOO in one of my accounts because it screened in when I did this for myself last weekend. So I'm not averse to an index fund, as long as it meets my criteria for being one of my Top 5 picks. So I think that's the only 'advantage,' just trying to maximize return in a sort of safe-ish way. (Btw, I wouldn't do this on crypto ETFs or marijuana or things like that; but then, the charts actually rule those out.) Yes indeed, more leverage by using ATM or OTM Calls. OTM are what the kids on here like to trade, looking for those lottery-style wins. But that's not what I'm after: I just want 'enough' return that's fairly safe/conservative/repeatable/pick your adjective. 80-delta is a proven(?) or at least accepted sweet spot. By all rights, I should be going even higher, and I'd still get plenty of return. Yuen's method is that BE of purchased Calls be no more than 5% of spot. In my XME example above, that would have me buying the 62C vs. the 70C (numbers are wonky AH, so I can't quote Deltas, but it's in the 90's). But guess what? That would still give leverage of at least 3x. So let XME do 11% again next month, and you're still looking at 33%. Insane leverage these things provide, so no, I don't recommend AT ALL going closer to the money. And you probably know, but for those reading along, you can get more leverage buy using a shorter duration. 100-120 days is sometimes recommended. An 80-ish delta XME Callat 104DTE gives almost 6x leverage. Loss control. Firstly, I've never been one to hold something hoping it comes back. But you're absolutely correct: with any long Call option, you're on a deadline. For stocks and ETFs, I've pretty much always used a 10% Trailing Stop. Invstor's Business Daily, which I've been reading for decades, recommends an 8% stop-loss *from your purchase price*. Mostly to protect you from a bad entry. But then they don't really give a stop-loss recommendation for when the darn thing starts going up. So my 10% kind of morphed from that. And of course, if the thing has gone up some, and is kind of choppy, then I may relax that to 20%.
Thanks for your input! I too 'farm' good-performing ETFs for their best-performing holdings. Did that a couple months ago with XLU, Utilities, and more recently with XME, Metals. Though in both cases also playing the ETFs. Very interesting comment about 10% off their highs, because that's a criterion in Yuen's book. Is that a commonly-held belief, or did you by chance get it from him? I don't have the patience to wait, or the faith in myself to decide when a correction is over, so I just go in when the charts look good. "Buy high and sell higher," that kind of thing.
Great, I picked up on some sort of cosmic brainwave I suppose. But you lost me at "stagflation environment" and "the actual \[right\] thing to do right now." You'll sound smarter if you think and talk like that, but meanwhile there are pragmatic people out here just trading whatever the market provides, regardless of what some kind of "environment" or "paradigm" people name it. Did you know that's it's alright to pick stocks and ETFs simply because they're going up? It is. Do you have a 5th grader handy? Explain to them just a little bit about charts and how this "thing" was worth that a year ago, but now it's worth this today. Then show them a chart of a thing that's maybe flat or even going down a bit, but that "should" go up "when the current macroenvironment is fully priced into the market," or whatever other esoteric things the pundits say. Tell them that their allowance will be put into one of those "things," and that at the end of a month they can pick a new "thing" if they want. See which chart they pick. That's momentum-investing of course ("performance chasing" if you're less diplomatic), but it works as well as any other method out there. Do this for me when you have time: go to [Barchart.com](http://Barchart.com) and find their ETF Screener. De-select all the leveraged ones. You can keep the 1x inverse ones. Add the filter Has Options. You should get about 1280 of them. Change the view from Filter View to Performance. Sort by 3M %Chg. Scroll down until you get to the ones that have 'only' done about 30% over the past 3 months (that's 120% apy, remember). Start shopping there. At the top right of the list, click on "flipcharts." Change the Template to Line. Leave the duration at 6M. Across the top, scroll over to XME. 30.8% over the last quarter, and I'm in it, so I have no qualms recommending it. Grab your 5th-grader and start flipping through charts. XME is good in my opinion, but ask your 5th-grader. 4 later, XTL is good. RING is good. ECNS, XSD, CHAT, SIXG, METV, PIE, MAGS, etc. As you're going through, don't even look at the names; just look at the price action and figure out what that's telling you. And *don't* overlay any market sentiments you may have. And *especially* don't let your/our primitive primate brain tell you that "they've gone up too fast so they HAVE to go down soon." They don't. Really try to overcome that; I think it's the biggest obstacle people have to getting into good stocks. It's why people have been sitting on the sidelines for 5 years with Nvidia, for example, waiting for it to be "properly valued" or some such drivel. The price action tells you all you need to know. Believe in it.
Check out - [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XME/](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XME/)
Nice! If you need safe stash, the XME ETF is steadily rising with shares in top market cap stocks like MP!
SPMO/XME and chill :p
Holding these 8/15 MP 70 Cs and XME 25 Cs after close. I’d much rather regret something I’ve done than something I was too afraid to do.
Holding these 8/15 MP 70 Cs and XME 25 Cs after close. I’d much rather regret something I’ve done than something I was too afraid to do.
Hold this MP 70 C 8/15 (+65%) through close after earnings or what? Also riding on XME 75 C 8/15 (+325%)
Hold this MP 70 C 8/15 through close after earnings or what? Also riding on XME 75 C 8/15
My guy! I’m up 145% on MP and just hopped into USAR its next up! Check out XME it tracks domestic minerals
Those are all great, QQQ is a decent tech industry stock. Here are some I’ve been looking at. For energy XEG (toronto stock exchange one/TSX), HXE, ZEO and NRGY For retail/transportation XIU and VSP For housing VRE (the vanguard one on Wealthsimple) For mining XGD and XME As always do your own research and time your entry.
Hi everybody, I just opened my first investment account, and I am looking for guidance about what my next steps should be from here. Starting out, I have 500 dollars to invest, and I plan to add 200 each month. I am a 20-year-old college student, and I have no personal expenses at the moment, so it is a great time to start investing. I have an investment account at Fidelity, and I am looking into ETFs such as XME, VOX, NASDAQ, and the S&P 500. I am looking for advice about what companies and ETFs to look into. For context, I am a 20-year-old girl from America, but I am looking to invest globally.
US, early 30s. Individual brokerage account aimed at long term horizon (have separate 401k heavy on s&p500). Please rate my ETF portfolio which currently has an even spread of the following. What can I do better? Any other market sectors I should look into? Thanks! XME XAR VIS VDE VDC VB VOO SMH IAUM SIVR
Well I've been shorting gold all year. Just like I had been shorting the market all year. Closed out all my shorts on the market these past 2 weeks. They all were profitable. Now I'm long on the market and short on gold (among many other "bets"). I have no idea when, but eventually it will fall again. I'm prepared to keep lowering my cost basis for at least another year or two. I may hedge the position this year though by going long on a few select metals such as palladium, litihum, steel, copper. Or perhaps just keeping it simple with XME/REMX. Yes I know that gold is a far more complex situation than just another metal, it has industrial applications, fashion applications and most importantly right now.... currency aplications. But in the end, I use the global markets as funny lines on a chart on my phone that make me money. Life is crazy in this timeline .....
I was holding XME the past year it went nowhere sadly
CVX, XME, VPU looking good imo
Yes, and IAU, and GLDM, and SLV, and GDX. All that shit. He said steel so XME too
Yeesh, that yearly XME chart is ugly
Goodluck regard, maybe I’ll sell some XME and grab a couple shares with you. Since XME has done nowhere since May
Literally everything in my portfolio is green except a few things: NVDA red, GLD red, SLV red, XPH red, XME red, and IBIT red. Literally everything else is green. Surely this must be the top of the bubble right?
No idea about the other questions, but... > $TMQ. It's performing very well right now, though I have no idea why It boomed day the day after Trump's election because the Biden administration had blocked construction of an Alaskan road Trilogy wanted. https://www.mining.com/biden-administration-blocks-ambler-road-in-alaska/ Stick with XME or COPX if you want mining but not the risk of individual companies.
First, you are absolutely correct to be re-allocating your money to equity positions. I suggest you consider something like 65% ETFs eg: 30%VOO, 15%VGT, 10%VUG, and 10%XLG. For your remaining positions I would recommend 35% in positions that provide both diversification and income from materials and mining positions eg: 10%BHP, 10%RIO , 7.5%GNR and 7.5%XME. For disclosure this is very much my own portfolio. You should also note that am retired, and believe most retirees are best served by similar portfolios, ie : Equity positions to provide growth and Materials/Mining positions to provide growth and to further boost up dividend income.
XME seems to have so many ups and downs
China stocks, XME and Tesla run up to robotaxi day (sell before)
Sell all from Googl down. Put into materials and mining stocks or ETFs for greater diversification. Suggest. BHP, RIO, GNR and XME.
I was invested in FB/META for a little bit, but I’ve just predicted industries that have done well each year. One year was all about AMD, another was for defense contractors. This year, Bitcoin has been my primary focus, but next year my investments will probably be Intel and Exxon. Keep in mind, all though I have overweights in my portfolio, index’s such as the SPLG, XSVM, and XME still make up around 60% of my total portfolio.
Take a good hard look at adding the Materials and Mining sectors. I have VOO, VGT and VUG, but also GNR ( materials ) and XME ( mining ) and it is working out quite well for me. You could consider a similar split such as 30%VOO, 15%VUG, 15%VOOG, 20%GNR and 20%XME.
XME is up as gold prices seem to match S&P market ytd. These are great hedge etfs. I personally have individual gold streaming, metals, piping and uranium stocks.
You are doing great; personally I like the VOO and VUG ETFs, and to add a bit of diversity I put about 15% into GNR ( materials ) and 15% into XME ( mining ). I don’t subscribe to a need for an international or outside the US ETF as you already have major international exposure via VOO, VUG, and definitely via GNR and XME.
If you are happy with 5%, yes you could put a bit into cds. But at your age I would be putting everything into ultra low cost equity ETFs such as VOO, VUG, VGT and for more targeted materials and mining exposure GNR and XME. Don’t shortchange yourself; you’ve a long investment horizon ahead of you.
Also a former TD Ameritrade client, now a Schwab user. In general, I find the narrowly targeted ETFs to be ultra volatile, not only now, but I suspect even more so in the future. I value the benefits of ETFs but prefer broader specialization. My account is 35% individual stocks, and about 25% VOO, 10% VGT, 10% VUG, 10% GNR and 10% XME.
Congratulations on an outstanding start! What I would do is add some targeted exposure to natural resources via 10%GNR and 10%XME. This is similar to what I have done in my IRA.
I am retired and what I've done with my IRA is ETFs : 50% VOO, 20% VUG, and then 15% GNR and 15% XME as I want the additional materials and mining exposure. Sounds like you are setting up for a solid retirement.
Thoughts on what XME is doing for tomorrow?
You’re in great shape . At this juncture I would significantly punch up your VOO and importantly, add some materials and mining exposure with ETFs GNR and XME.
Yes, and yes. Schwartz, Fidelity or VanGuard , then recommend 80% VOO and maybe 10% GNR and 10 % XME.
bruh .... my XLE and XME will barely move
Semi con play is over. NVDA, MU, TSM ..... Market rotating out. Semi con going to be either flat or continue downtrend. I'm adding to XLE, XME and GDX
I have mine split 40 VGT, 15VUG , 15 VGT, 15 GNR and 15 XME . Granted, a lot of overlap at the topbut I'm fine with that. Has been performing great .
[Super rare Trogdor on the XME chart](https://ibb.co/cLhxFTJ)
Interest rate sensitive sectors. Regional banks, home builders, REITS, biotech. Look them up. KRE, XME, XHB, XBI,
ITB (US Home Construction) is the best performing non-tech ETF for the past five years by a wide margin, and during challenging times for the industry too. Also check out SLX (steel), PAVE and AIRR (infrastructure), and XME (mining).
XME (metals risky), XLF (loans not paid)
If you believe in the industry, then protect yourself by investing in the industry, not specific companies. COPX, FXZ, XME.
Not sure what you are asking as "index funds" covers most ETFs but if you only meant S&P500 or bigger funds, then what you can invest in beyond VOO/VTI are sector funds like XLE/XME/XLK or factor funds like RFV/RWJ/SCHD/MOAT/SPGB etc etc. There are lots of ETFs that have consistently done better than the S&P500.
\- Spot on regarding the equal weight portion...just want to further tilt away from cap weighted large cap tech. 10% between apple and microsoft in VTI scares me. I did drop that portion since I realized how highly correlated the equal weight fund was with VTI (even though equal weight had better returns, to your point, the expense might not be worth it). \- And I want to hold the crypto exposure for exactly the reason you lay out. Basically a high beta hedge against (not inflation) but excessive monetary easing. So yeah, the hope there is upside convexity, not downside. \- And yes, the XME allocation is probably the most "active" of a bet. My view is that over the next 3-5 years we will see a lot more dislocations, less trend in equity markets, and higher performance from "real" assets and the industrial economy...this is trying to express that. But yes, I agree that over the long run, this 25% of non equities will only be a drag....I'm making a macro trade eyes wide open....tbd how it plays.
Thanks for your input, also I'd have to check other ETFs, XME doesn't seem to be available on my broker unfortunately.
You've got lots of stuff to pick and choose there, and it seems to new eyes rather random... which follows from you saying you went from growth to other ideas. I'd suggest 1) start from scratch. Ignore your current holdings and think about what percentages of holdings you want in growth or info tech or mining. Make this add up to 90%, so that you have room for other ideas or changes going forward. Then 2) once you've decided about how much you want in each area, I'd recommend you look at both sector and factor ETFs fit each area you are interested in. For example, XME kicks RIO's butt for YTD, 1yr and 5yr return. Unless there is something about RIO that you think will make it pop in the short term, I can't see owning it instead of XME, which benefits having all kinds of mining and diversity in its geopolitics risk. I'm not saying get all or almost all ETFs, though that's fine, I'm saying with so many diverse holdings you would do well to spend a lot of time exploring sector and factor ETFs to see how they could cover your diverse interests better.
What is a good buy right now? I was looking at a few ETFs like FTXN, FCG, XME, NANR but not sure if these are the right investing direction....
Bought heavy into TAN and XME over the summer and I'm sitting pretty
Because XME shares are also relatively low volume. XME average daily share volume is around 3.5 million. Compare to the GLD trust, which has an average daily share volume of 5.6 million, and XLE, which has an average daily volume of 18 million. Plus, the industry sector as a whole is relatively low volatility as well, apart from precious metals and materials with big demand spikes, like lithium. But stuff like steel and aluminum and uranium are in XME also, and the prices of those materials don't change very often.
If you have LIT for lithium, then I'd suggest splitting the amount 50/50 between REMX and LIT. REMX is actually lithium heavier, while the LIT has the extra risk/(benefit?/negative?) of also having Tesla, Lucid and Rivian. Likewise I'd suggest pairing XME with PICK rather than GOLD. Gold (the commodity) is more of a cyclical get-in/get-out shorter term play while XME and PICK are longterm mining plays. (Same with NANR and GNR.) Also, go ahead and make yourself some alternate play money portfolios to compare your current ideas to. That way you can try many things for free far beyond what you can do with your actual 6k.
Hey there, I’m wondering if anyone has some thoughts on my roth ira portfolio i just started through tdAmeritrade. I’m 33, my wife and i make a combined 110k annually. I do already contribute 6% to my work retirement plan. So this is a secondary. I would like to keep it to 10 etfs. So far i have. Would like to know thoughts on this set up and suggestions for 4 more to add. I am able to invest the full 6k a year. Im fairly new to this, just self taught so anything helps. BND GNR GOLD LIT WOOD XME VTI
Thanks for the suggestion but XME contains precious metals and doesn't include food and other commodities. I'm looking for one that excludes precious metals but includes all other commodities. I've been searching but cannot seem to find out.
Still short af on mega-c^(r)ap tech. All of them look terrible. Even the relatively strong ones (META, NFLX) are hitting a gap fill, which could signal reversal. Reloading gold miner longs, XME looks great. Looking for an entry to long FCX. ​ good luck have fun <3 u
Total return XME up 9% for the year, PICK 2%. Three years 76/40. PICK is better five and ten years tho. Good example of if you were in it for the longterm having both would have merit. I will partly agree with the gist of the other post though, mining is not a great 5+ year hold, especially a particular metal like silver. (Copper is interesting now too.)
Smart. I like the idea of silver right now because it’s been publicized that Russia and China have stockpiled silver to create a global currency backed by a silver standard and silver is cheap as shit currently so I figured I’d jump the gun w silver mining ETFS or just straight up buy physical silver. I’ll go check out XME I appreciate it
"I don’t feel like it makes sense to go half in two very similar same sector etfs rather than all in one." Why? It makes _a lot_ more sense to have two than just one, unless obviously one performs way better. In you case you have broad mining and then go heavy on silver. It wouldn't make any sense to sell the broad one. That would make you totally in silver. Personally I have XME. It has done way better than PICK historically, and SIL has not done well at all except last fall.
# Tickers of Interest - TL;DR **Gamma Max Cross** * [HAL](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#HAL) 12/16 37P for $1.70 or less * [TJX](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#TJX) 12/16 77.5P for $2.10 or less * [XME](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#XME) 12/16 50P for $2.05 or less * [AUY](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#AUY) 12/16 4.5P for $0.10 or less * [KR](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#KR) 12/16 48P for $1.85 or less **Delta Neutral Cross** * [EEM](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#EEM) 12/16 38P for $1.05 or less * [MSFT](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#MSFT) 12/16 240P for $6.95 or less * [PYPL](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#PYPL) 12/16 85P for $4.00 or less * [QCOM](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#QCOM) 12/16 120P for $4.25 or less * [DAL](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#DAL) 12/16 35C for $1.15 or less # Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today. This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0. For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals. The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV. # Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle * If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open. * Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. * I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in. * The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. # FAQ - Because others have already asked. * These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? * No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. * Are you entering all these plays? * No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn. * You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean? * The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not. * Where are the crayons? I only see words. * Click the links above. * Have you back-tested this? * Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error) * What is the historical performance? * The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.85 with a 67% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 49% and 72%. (Stats as of 2022-10-28)
# Tickers of Interest - TL;DR **Gamma Max Cross** * [BTU](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#BTU) 12/16 28P for $2.05 or less * [WYNN](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#WYNN) 12/16 77.5P for $4.10 or less * [UMC](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#UMC) 12/16 7.5P for $0.30 or less * [SHEL](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SHEL) 12/16 55P for $1.25 or less * [XME](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#XME) 12/16 52P for $2.20 or less **Delta Neutral Cross** * [EEM](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#EEM) 12/16 38P for $0.85 or less * [UBER](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#UBER) 12/16 30P for $1.25 or less * [CMCSA](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#CMCSA) 12/16 32.5P for $0.65 or less * [UNH](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#UNH) 12/16 510C for $10.75 or less * [SYF](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SYF) 12/16 35P for $1.05 or less # Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today. This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0. For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals. The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV. # Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle * If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open. * Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. * I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in. * The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. # FAQ - Because others have already asked. * These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? * No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. * Are you entering all these plays? * No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn. * You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean? * The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not. * Where are the crayons? I only see words. * Click the links above. * Have you back-tested this? * Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error) * What is the historical performance? * The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.85 with a 67% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 49% and 72%. (Stats as of 2022-10-28)