Reddit Posts
Recommended Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) allocation - how am I doing? (federal 401k per se)
2023-03-10 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
2023-03-08 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
2023-03-03 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
2023-03-01 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
2023-02-28 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
The S&P 500 bottomed in mid-October... these sectors are beating it on the way up
Confusion, Don't the 2 ETFs track the MSCI EAFE index? TsP I Fund
2023-01-17 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
2022-11-29 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
2022-11-22 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
2022-11-21 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
VT and EFA are popular ETF's, but they have done poorly.
Mentions
When you exit your global market puts at open on Friday at a slight loss and enter September Calls on emerging and developed markets. I was mad about how the market dropped afterwards since i sold the puts at a slight loss. Now I am omega fucked. Can I recover by September 19th? I have calls on EEM 47 and EFA 88.
> Nearly half of the fund is just a collection of other ETFs. this type of thing is not necessarily a problem. there are "funds of funds" where a given fund has sub-holdings of other funds. the typical TDF might hold an S&P 500 fund + US small cap fund + international fund + bonds, and re-balance between those 4 funds as needed. Or look at something like GAA from Cambria Funds and it's entirely made up of other ETFs. However, FFOX looks weird IMO. If it's based on mega-trends they believe are boosting small and medium size companies, I can't see any reason to hold 0.16% in EFA, which is a developed-markets large company index. It holds 0.19% in VTI (total US market, heavy on mega-large companies), and also holds 0.01% in IHE the iShares U.S. Pharmaceuticals ETF, which has 97% overlap with VTI. In contrast, a TDF or GAA have reasonable fees and a much clearer investing thesis to justify their decisions. the fact that it's brand-spanking new is also an issue to me. I'm not necessarily opposed to active management, but anything brand-new is cause for suspicion and those fees are very high. You can get decent active management from Vanguard, Fidelity, Capital Group, Dodge & Cox, etc for ~.5% or under.
If you want a good complement, you should be looking for something that is uncorrelated to SPY, not something leveraged that has the same underlying exposure. Maybe a commodities ETF, or something energy related. Possibly IWM, EFA, etc. although not as uncorrelated as maybe one would like that's trying to diversify. Also, look to diversify the levels of IV, not just the underlyings.
I like EFA too, and it's mostly going up, which is always good. You could do a Buy-write and sell CCs, but the Puts are a little juicier. The 9DTE 27Jun86P at 28-delta could be sold for 0.43 right now at 1:54 EST on Wednesday. Until expiration, that leaves 0.3 days today, Friday, plus 5 trading days next week: 6.3 trading days. 0.43 / 86 = 0.5% Dividing by 6.3 and multiplying by 250 trading days in a year gives an apy of 20%, which actually isn't too shabby. But that's the trouble with ETFs, even SPY: their returns are pretty low. But if you wanted to sell that CSP ATM, you could make 29%. Not a great improvement. But if you had a MARGIN acct, in Schwab I'm seeing that I only need one-sixth the Buying Power, so 6 x 20% (for the 28-delta Call) gives 120%, which is a MUCH nice number.
I suggest EFA, an ETF that holds the stock of companies in international/developed countries. $87/share. If you sell CCs vs 100 SPY & 200 EFA, you’ll hold 78% US & 22% international. My criteria: 1. international exposure. 2. both ETFs & their options are very liquid (actively traded).
I had some long EEM and EFA calls that got hammered on Friday. It may be a while before they catch back up. It’ll depend on how things go in Iran for most of the world tbh. But long term U.S. may not be as hot as international.
Developed countries outside of the United States have lower valuations [EFA is at 17, the S&P 500 is over 27]. Or to put it another way, the S&P 500 looks like a bubble, especially if you take away the "American Exceptionalism" excuse/explanation.
EFA and other foreign-based ETFs are up this year.
Facts bears hate: >European stocks (EFA - MSCI EAFE) hit an all time high today 
I’m nearly 80% cash. I will be buying SPY, QQQ, IWM and EFA in the coming month or so. I think $400 is the downward target for SPY. I will seek to be in 100% stocks at that point. DCA on the way down.
"Shorting against the Box" is not a thing that's permitted anymore. (I'm 64yo now and actually tried this a couple years ago. Didn't realize rules had changed!) You've got the right idea about swapping a security for a loss for a new one that's a good enough replacement. (Hint: aim for "good enough". Your choice of SCHB & VTI aren't convincing to the IRS. Both are broad US market funds, similarly weighted.) But you didn't exactly say that this $50K would be swapped, but rather frozen in place, right? So is your idea then to protect approx $50K in gains? If that's the case then IMO the best way is to spend a bit of money to dollar for dollar protect what you want protected using SPY put contracts. People here can help with that. The next best way IMHO is a covered-call sort of setup. Except in my case, since I have significant gains in the things I'm trying to protect, I really wouldn't want them being called away and making a messy taxable event. So I own SGOL, but write GLD contracts. I own SPHQ but write SPY contracts and I own IEFA but write EFA calls, etc. You've got VTI, so SPY is perfect to use to write some calls. The idea being that if you write $50K worth of SPY calls, then the worst case might be winding up in a position where you're short SPY. But at least no VTI shares were called away.
Check out the chart of EEM and EFA vs SPY this year. My point is that you don't have to dive in and pick individual Brazilian or Indonesian companies, or decide which German gun maker is going to win. Just buy a basket. It's also a play on the dollar weakening, which seems pretty likely in my view.
EFA and EEM. Keep it simple. We don't know what we don't know about overseas markets, particularly developing markets.
SPY is down 1.5% ytd, EFA (dollar denominated foreign developed markets) is up 12%. Good indicator that the rest of the world is going to play catchup for a while.
That's actually EFA! (EXCELLENT FINANCIAL ADVICE!) I believed in way too many penny stocks and didn't want to jump off the sinking ship with the rest of the crew.
You can see some of the strong dollar effect by comparing EFA vs HEFA.
Full results with various ETFs and starting wealth of $10,000 2022-11-16 to 2024-11-14 BTC/SPY Correlation: 0.9384807621761988 Ending Wealth: 29791.828338451 BTC/IVV Correlation: 0.9382428961059993 Ending Wealth: 29801.74517198684 BTC/VTI Correlation: 0.9387170284293033 Ending Wealth: 29617.037885579404 BTC/QQQ Correlation: 0.9242071406130036 Ending Wealth: 32487.886507858522 BTC/GLD Correlation: 0.8815530656531706 Ending Wealth: 29406.214965232546 BTC/SLV Correlation: 0.7821118169993121 Ending Wealth: 29606.35729672473 BTC/EFA Correlation: 0.8994207429139139 Ending Wealth: 26567.280195258125 BTC/IEFA Correlation: 0.8901136589191622 Ending Wealth: 26454.28134644207
This subreddit doesn't allow pics in the replies, so I'll have to just use text. Try out [portfoliovisualizer.com](http://portfoliovisualizer.com) and check their Tools pulldown for Asset Correlations. Your BEMB owns dollar-denominated debt only, so that makes a difference. BEMB happens to be a bit more highly correlated with SPY and EFA than domestic JNK is. I happen to have a 5% stake in EM bonds but they're not dollar-denominated. EMLC is a local currency EM bond fund that is less correlated to US and foreign stocks than either JNK or BEMB.
i think it is largely a market cap index......... so few adjustments required that have any meaningful effect. do a relative price chart of SPY and EFA or SPY and any of EFA's components. that will tell you all you need to know about changes in weightings.
If you don’t have a strong reason to do otherwise, an overall index fund is a great default. For example: * VOO, IVV, and FXAIX all cover the 500ish largest US companies. * VTI, ITOT, and FSKAX hold basically every publicly traded US company. * VT holds thousands of companies all over the world, or you could cobble together the same thing with a US and international fund (for example ITOT + EFA). Trying to pick individual companies or industries without having a good reason and understanding of what you’re getting into is a sucker’s game. The average retail investor [underperforms](https://lanningfinancial.com/why-the-average-investor-underperforms-the-market/) the market average, usually because they’re: 1. Chasing yesterday’s hot stock 2. Picking companies they’ve heard a lot of hype about (which means they’re probably overpriced relative to what they’re actually worth) 3. Basically just picking randomly, which doesn’t do well because a [few outstanding performers](https://www.stlouistrust.com/insights/why-most-stocks-underperform-index?action=genpdf&id=3207) account for most of the overall market’s gains in any given year.
Yes, you got it. I would add that instead of waiting the 30 days sitting in cash, you can do the true tax-loss harvest thing, which is to switch to a different horse immediately so you remain invested (in something similar, not identical). And after 30 days you'll can decide to stick with the new horse or switch back to the old one. This can be like selling CocaCola and buying PepsiCo. Or, with ETFs it's a lot easier. Pair VOO with VTI. Pair IJR with IWM. Pair IEFA with EFA. Pair IEMG with EEM. etc.
As already stated, the liquidity in Vanguard options isn’t sufficient for trading. Look for alternatives. Your best alternative for VTI is definitely SPY. Slightly different composition, but very similar, all domestic, and, most importantly, SPY is very liquid. Liquidity is King when you trade options! Unfortunately, there are no etf’s with liquid options that are simply “ex-Us”. Your best choice for that coverage will be a combination of EFA (developed ex-US) and EEM (emerging markets). Both list among the most liquid option chains available.
It’s not necessarily about the Mag7 or Delicious Dozen or whatever the new clique is. Key thing for me is *direct* holdings, owning that stock as its own position rather than as part of a mutual fund. Between ITOT and EFA, I hold basically every stock in the world. However, trying to pump my couple hundred dollars of Wendy’s stock (indirectly, as 0.01% of ITOT) does basically nothing for me because I couldn’t liquidate just that one position. As soon as the hype dies down, my paper gains disappear. On the other hand, I hold a roughly equal amount of Duolingo stock directly, and because I have the *ability* to pump and dump that stock I disclose the potential conflict of interest.
Fair question, but FXI, and TLT are also correlating with EFA and then there is GLD. It is just transference. Sell high, buy low. Has nothing to do with politics.
ITOT. That and EFA are the backbone of my 401k. Among individual companies: NVDA, MSFT, and SYF^(1). I started NVDA smaller than the other two but it’s grown just that quickly. I got in because I figured crypto farming would be good for their business, but then AI became the new hot thing. MSFT and SYF were meant to provide stability, but they’ve done really well too. ^(1) Synchrony Financial. They do conventional banking and also they’re the people behind a lot of “no interest for 12 months” financing plans.
Pardon me for not replying sooner. I began my sellputsthencalls strategy upon retirement from Fidelity in 2017. With about 85-90% of my IRA. Initially versus 4 ETFs (DIA, EFA, EEM & TLT), then versus XLE, & for the last 2 years versus SPY. Exclusively using monthlies until 2 months ago when I began weeklies. I'd say the returns are consistent. By design, option selling should generally perform versus the underlying's buy & hold, as follows: option selling should do well but underperform the underlying in a thru-the-roof market; outperform a modestly-up, flat & modestly-down market; & outperform an into-the-tank market by losing less than the underlying. Since using weeklies, I've generated premium yield of about 9% annualized, but I also see appreciation & depreciation because of SPY pricing. I want to select strike prices with a 20% chance of assignment, but with SPY being well below my put assignment strike price, I've selected much higher assignment chances for my covered call strike prices. Using monthly statements, I compare my OSS (option selling strategy) to a small amount of FXAIX (S&P 500) that I hold. An example of performance: month ending 3/31/24 -- FXAIX +3.2%, OSS +2.7%. month ending 4/30/24 -- FXAIX -4.2%, OSS -1.4%. 2 months, 2/29/24 to 4/30/24 -- FXAIX -1.1% (-6.5% annualized), OSS +1.3% (+7.7% ann.) YTD thru 4/30/24 -- FXAIX +5.9% (17.7% ann.), OSS +4.2% (+12.6% ann.)
Fidelity had Comparisons so really appreciate the EFG again! 1. EFA 2. IQSI 3. EFAX 4. ESGD 5. IMTM
Neither of these is a knock on IHDG, I don’t really know that one, but there are basically two reasons VXUS is the default: 1. The sub has a Vanguard bias, explained in the FAQ. One could just as easily say SWISX or EFA, but Vanguard tickers have become the shorthand. 2. Passively managed funds tend to be cheaper and simpler, and most investors would benefit from that. There’s no need to monitor performance or worry about a change in fund management. That being said, the sub will occasionally acknowledge an actively managed fund that seems to be performing well, such as AVUV (small-cap value).
I hold several individual stocks, and I thoroughly agree with this. (Aside from maybe putting a bit in an international index fund like EFA or VXUS. But that’s a matter of personal taste.) Thing to remember is that a stock is an ownership stake in a company, and before you buy a company you should probably have a really good reason to do so. A lot of newcomers just kind of buy into companies they’ve been hearing a lot of buzz about, and that rarely works out.
EFA? EMXC if you want emerging with no Gyna
That's a big car loan, too big for me personally. If it was me I would sell the car if possible and try to buy a car for under 10,000. Despite my extensive trading experience my best investment returns have come from buying and holding big liquid index funds. It's worked for me and so maybe it can work for you. Some big names are SPY,QQQ, DIA, IWM, EFA, VWO, VEA. Also look at country funds for further diversification. I just buy everything, why not. Crypto, stocks, everything. One thing I do avoid is those ridiculously high dividend ETFs. Been burned too many times with those.
SPY at $90 and IWF at $45 ish. Also EFA and IXG at the same time but cannot recall right now what the buy price was. Thankful for my broker back then to set me up.
A few things to bear in mind: 1. 95% of the time, even if you bought a major stock market index like the S&P500 at the absolute top, within 10 years you made your money back. 2. Two major stock indexes outside the US are the MSCI EAFE Index for developed Europe, Australia-Asia and Far East companies and MSCI Emerging Markets Index for developing countries, presently weighted heavily towards China, Taiwan and South Korea. 3. Exchange Traded Funds let you move on a moment’s notice. SPY, EFA and EEM are possibilities I’ve used. Most people have a slug of money in fixed income securities, as I do. I am older and like the income and stability, but they usually don’t grow in value much.
I swear the moment I dump my EFA the entire world economy outside the US will rally
I have an IRA that is basically SPY/VOO/EFA/AGG that’s on autopilot. I also like to gamble. So I have a gambling account. None of the IRA money touches it. Ever. The IRA comes straight out of my paycheck and I never see it. Don’t know how it’s doing (though I imagine it’s doing fine). The gambling account is how I lose money. The IRA is how I retire.
My favorite exercise with Chinese stocks is to go to portfolio backtest visualizer. Enter MCHI and IVV. Click inflation adjusted. MCHI $10k invested in December 2011 becomes $9453 on 31 December 2023. IVV $10k becomes $35069 QQQ $10k becomes $60298 EFA (developed markets without NA) becomes $15,985. An investment in China ETF in 2011 over a 12-year span, and back then China was not facing today's issues, lost money after inflation. Including dividends. Now they're facing huge issues. Meanwhile the SP500 delivered 3.5x and Nasdaq100 delivered 6x. After all that there are still people who care about Chinese stocks. There are people who would still put money into Chinese stocks. Someone said insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
Over time, has your 20-30 stock portfolio outperformed the market? If so, you're exceptional, most don't because we're human and make emotional decisions. Having said that, if you enjoy the process of managing an individual stock portfolio, keep doing what you're doing. I used to do a lot of swing trading, til realizing it was a lot of time and work to NOT outperform the market. So personally I'd add that 40k to my well diversified portfolio of low cost ETFs (SPY TLT TIP EEM EFA VOO etc). Pretty boring.
SPY has turned into a concentrated collection of U.S. mega caps To achieve more diversification, you can buy: - IWM: US small caps - MDY: US mid caps - EFA: Foreign developed markets (Europe, Japan) - EEM: Foreign developing markets (35% China) - VT: Vanguard Total World Stock Index - VTI: Vanguard US Total Market Index To achieve even more diversions, you can buy commodity based ETFs such GLD (gold) and SLV (silver)
I used to work in wealth manager for a large bank for ultra high worth individuals (25mm+). Toward the end of my time there we could not have single stocks in advisory accounts (our discretion to trade) because of the compliance risk. Instead, all individual stocks had to be held in brokerage accounts and required client consent to trade. For the advisory accounts we could rebalance between ETFs/Mutual funds that we had socialized with the client, but even then we had to record trade notes as to why we made the trade (10/14/18 sold $250k of SPY/Bought $250k EFA to rebalance due to domestic over performance moving portfolio out of balance). But we were essentially a conduit for private investment opportunities, bespoke bond portfolios to optimize taxes, and making sure people didn’t lose their money gambling on stocks. There were very few things we did to actually “make money” outside of some conservative options strategies to generate some extra yield when rates were trash.
>If by “nothing” you mean that it proves had I taken your advice I would have suffered a massive unrecoverable opportunity cost by investing in EFA (internationals) at any time over the past 20 years, well then you are correct. 1) So you admit you don't understand what the link shows. 2) You would not have known how the next 20 years would play out at that point just like you don't know how the next 2 years will play out now. >because I know that countries like Russia, China, South Africa, etc are all susceptible to dictators like Putin, Xi Jinping, Ramaphosa, etc. And I was smart enough to observe that dictators are always bad for us commoner’s wallets. Going with developed markets can mostly remove the dictatorship issue. But even with the doctor issue, emerging markets tend to be strong performers in the long run.
>That data does nothing to prove it wrong. If by “nothing” you mean that it proves had I taken your advice I would have suffered a massive unrecoverable opportunity cost by investing in EFA (internationals) at any time over the past 20 years, well then you are correct. Fortunately for me I was smart enough not to listen to boglehead cultists like yourself because I know that countries like Russia, China, South Africa, etc are all susceptible to dictators like Putin, Xi Jinping, Ramaphosa, etc. And I was smart enough to observe that dictators are always bad for us commoner’s wallets.
\>Prove the odds aren't correct. Where is your source? What did my source get wrong? I already pointed you to proof that your cartoonish clown theory is wrong. But I’ll play your stupid game, here are the exact details. 5 year comparison \\- SPY +57% vs EFA +9% 10 year comparison \\- SPY 162% vs EFA +8% 15 year comparison \\- SPY 279% vs EFA +23% 20 year comparison \\- SPY 340% vs EFA +77% You are getting defensive now because your fraudulent clown theory has been exposed. That type of defensiveness is usually a result of someone trying to hide something, I suspect you specifically cherry picked a 10 year window because that is the only window which even came close to your fraud having a remote chance of matching the S&P 500. You really should stop pushing your bogus theory on unsuspecting people seeking help. You act like a damn greasy used car salesman. It’s offensive seeing your post history littered with those links spammed to so many posts. It’s too bad you made a poor decision to invest in international stocks but that doesn’t give you the right to try to con others into doing the same. In fact that is criminal and has a name, it is called pumping and dumping.
>The poor OP needs some real world advice not crazy theory. Yet you cannot move beyond your theories and 100 year windows that mean jack all to us humans who work with 10-30 year windows. Real world advice? Just about every major fund provider, *including the government's own TSP,* use at least 30% (or what would reasonably round to 30%) ex-US for their target date funds. * 2022 Survey of target date funds: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/rffoe7/domestic_vs_international_percentage_within/ >Just stop and try to think for a second about who it is needs help. Can you manage that? It is a person asking about switching to a more diverse portfolio. Moving to a portfolio that eliminates the (uncompensated) single country risk they had before while picking up compensated risks (smaller caps, emerging markets). >Advising the OP to invest in a portfolio that you THINK might outperform the S&P 500 based on your MSCI EAFE (EFA I assume since you didn’t specify) given a 45% chance to outperform the S&P 500 should be criminal. 45% isn't all that far off from the 55% chance of US outperforming. Also you seem to be missing that holding both US and ex-US can produce better returns than 100% in either direction in the long run. The S&P 500 is good, but it isn't this perfect magical thing like you think it is. >The OP is a real person who is going to need to retire and he needs to maximize his chances of getting the best gains out of his investments. No body in their right mind is going to think, oh yeah I’d love to have a 45% chance to do better than the S&P 500 (not that your odds are even correct). Prove the odds aren't correct. Where is your source? What did my source get wrong? 45% is fairly often, basically a coin flip. Then there's the sequence of returns issue. You also seem to be ignoring that OP had already decided FFNOX is a better fit for them than FXAIX going forward. >Your ridiculous data is based on only 10 year periods. Well my horizon is greater than 10 years and the OP’s likely is as well. So what about 11 years? 12 years? 13 years? 15 years? 17 years? 22 years? And every window in between up to 30 years? We've had 10+ year and 30+ year and 50+ year periods where it was ex-US on top of the US. Finding examples for every duration would be annoying. There is this: https://www.ifa.com/charts/154h For fun, I clicked "20+" which brought up January 1, 2023 through October 31, 2023. The top 2 spots went to emerging small cap followed by emerging value. So there's an intermediate term where the US was the one lagging behind the leader. Also that same duration shows US large lagging US small. Then "30+" also has US large trailing emerging small caps as well as US small caps and especially small value. >Sorry theorist but a 45% chance doesn’t cut it particularly when you cannot even show me what the odds are for all the other windows. All you have is some crazy theory backed by links you are repeatedly spamming like a marketing guy trying to drive clicks to a website. You're acting like 45% is very low. It's not. >Edit: What’s worse is EFA has barely earned 9% over the last 5 years while SPY has earned 58% over that period. You are going to end up hurting people with your theories and you need to stop. Had I taken your advice 5 years ago I’d likely never be able to regain the opportunity cost. >https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EFA:NYSEARCA?comparison=NYSEARCA%3ASPY&window=5Y You can't buy past returns. Only future returns. Back testing doesn't tell you about the future. If anything, many seem to believe that the US outperformance has likely put ex-US in an even more favorable position going forward. * https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/05/the-case-for-international-diversification/ * https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/experts-forecast-stock-bond-returns-2023-edition These may be wrong of course, but why are they not factoring in the things you mentioned above? At what valuation for US and valuation for ex-US (or percent of global market cap weight split) would you think things were fairly valued and returns going forward should be even (unless a surprise event comes up)? >Edit: What’s worse is EFA has barely earned 9% over the last 5 years while SPY has earned 58% over that period. You are going to end up hurting people with your theories and you need to stop. Had I taken your advice 5 years ago I’d likely never be able to regain the opportunity cost. In 2010, you'd be looking at back testing showing the US with **NEGATIVE** returns over 3 and 10 years (with 5 year as less than 1% positive for total market and less than 0.5% positive for S&P 500). That's even worse than the +9% you mention for EAFE over the last 5. So by telling someone to invest in the US in 2010 (having no knowledge of what was to come), using your exact same logic, you'd be hurting people even worse than telling them to be globally diversified now. Sorry but back testing is not a good predictor of future returns like you think it is. It doesn't tell us about the future.
Good gosh. You are a waste of time and effort. The poor OP needs some real world advice not crazy theory. Yet you cannot move beyond your theories and 100 year windows that mean jack all to us humans who work with 10-30 year windows. Just stop and try to think for a second about who it is needs help. Can you manage that? I asked for a simple analysis and yes I knew you wouldn’t be able to do it because I could see all you have is regurgitated theory based on some group you follow or maybe lead. Advising the OP to invest in a portfolio that you **THINK** might outperform the S&P 500 based on your MSCI EAFE (EFA I assume since you didn’t specify) given a 45% chance to outperform the S&P 500 should be criminal. The OP is a real person who is going to need to retire and he needs to maximize his chances of getting the best gains out of his investments. No body in their right mind is going to think, oh yeah I’d love to have a 45% chance to do better than the S&P 500 (not that your odds are even correct). Your ridiculous data is based on only 10 year periods. Well my horizon is greater than 10 years and the OP’s likely is as well. So what about 11 years? 12 years? 13 years? 15 years? 17 years? 22 years? And every window in between up to 30 years? Sorry theorist but a 45% chance doesn’t cut it particularly when you cannot even show me what the odds are for all the other windows. All you have is some crazy theory backed by links you are repeatedly spamming like a marketing guy trying to drive clicks to a website.
I made a typo. EFA or some similar international fund. Best of luck.
Nah, it's EFA and I bought 20 3dte 70.5 Puts when it was over 71 because some floor trader put 35k into the same play. I know what it is now ;-)
You can pick up some $EFA 70.50 Sep 8 Puts right now for .21 Some floor trader bought them yesterday and I picked up 20 lots for .18 just to see what would happen.
I'm going to open a short box on monday and pick up a ton of DTH and EFA on margin. I've done some research and I'm buying the "international is fairly valued while spy is overvalued" meme. dth paying 10% dividend... the dividend more than pays for the interest on the loan. can't go tits up. DTH = down to hodl.
Allocate part into international large cap, like EFA.
I first posted this as a thread but thought it would be better here, as advice: **Recommended Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) allocation - how am I doing? (federal 401k per se)** The Thrift Savings Plan is the retirement option outside of the pension for federal employees. It has its share of target retirement funds, but I opted out of that for more growth, for now. The other funds I have seen described as follows: G Fund = Cash (government securities) F Fund = AGG (Bonds) C Fund = SPY (S&P 500) S Fund = VXF (Dow Jones) I Fund = EFA (International) Currently, with my traditional TSP, I have 80% going into “C Fund”, and 20% going into “I Fund”. Does this look good for someone in their late 20s? Should I have exposure to S fund at all, or does my distribution look okay?
I've been reading about some option spreads and one that's piqued my interest is Christmas Tree options, where you buy 1 option ATM, sell 3 OTM, skip a strike price, then buy 2 more OTM. The article on Investopedia that I read this on said that it'd cost a net debit, but upon setting it up sometimes its actually a net credit. For instance, $EFA (random stock I'm hypothetically experimenting with - not something I'm seriously considering): B1 $74C AUG4 / S3 $74.5C AUG4 / B2 $75.5C AUG4 leads to a net credit instead of a debit. If I actually knew anything about $EFA I might even consider jumping in on that, but I honestly just picked a random stock to build with. Since the downside to a Christmas Tree spread is limited to the debit paid, is there any reason not to take a credit for these spreads if available? Or did I build this christmas tree wrong?
I buy ITOT, EFA, and IEMG. Why try to pick stocks/sectors/ countries when I can own them all?
There is no guarantee of anything but if you're worried about America there's EFA and IEMG.
I put most of my savings into these 6 ETFs for diversification, time around 5-10 years: * VTI: exposure to the US stock market * QQQ: tech/growth stocks * IVV: 500 largest US companies * IWM: small caps * GLD: gold, hedge against inflation * EFA: international Details here: https://www.tryshare.app/blog/best-etfs-to-buy-and-hold-forever
I use an allocation strategy service (Allocate Smartly) to provide tactical asset allocation recommendations. They're based on the strategies that you choose/ combine into your own allocation strategy. Plus they do the calculations (since most of the strategies are based on rolling 180 day prices). Right now, my recommendations (which I don't always follow) are BWX, EFA, GLD, IEF, IWD and LQD. Pre-Covid I was consistently outpacing the market. Right now I'm actually keeping my money in various MMFs - earning 4.75 - 5%
Mutuals typically don't outperform ETFs or index funds and charge much higher fees. I would avoid those. VOO is good, but you may want to diversify into smaller cap stocks or overseas. If you want to do solely ETFs; $IWM, $IJR (both small cap); $IEFA, $EFA (developed international); and $EEM, $VWO (developing international) may want to be some others you might want to look into as a hedge.
You could look at EFA and EEM. Not sure what the daily volume looks like.
The best way to do it is get an $EFA or a $EEM. There is always going to be risks for international stocks vs US stocks. Europe and Japan tend to be much slower growth than the US these days. Emerging markets like China, Latin America, and others can have more runway. However, they can have issues with corruption and nationalisation. I learned my lesson with $BABA and $SQM. I am up 50% in two months on $PAGS though. $NU and $CPNG are others I like for growth. But do DD and I would stick with ETFs if you want widespread diversification.
Rate HSA Portfolio 25% IVV 25% IWM 12.5% EFA 12.5% EEM Rest Cash Mid 20s in good health. How does this look?
AVDV should be compared against EFA since the both exclude emerging markets and VXUS doesn't.
# Tickers of Interest - TL;DR **Gamma Max Cross** * [KR](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#KR) 04/21 47P for $1.05 or less * [BITF](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#BITF) 04/21 1P for $0.25 or less * [LIN](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#LIN) 04/21 345P for $8.45 or less * [GSL](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#GSL) 04/21 17.5P for $0.90 or less * [TNP](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#TNP) 04/21 20P for $0.40 or less **Delta Neutral Cross** * [EFA](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#EFA) 04/21 70C for $1.55 or less * [T](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#T) 04/21 19C for $0.20 or less * [GM](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#GM) 04/21 38C for $1.80 or less * [NCLH](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#NCLH) 04/21 15C for $0.70 or less * [SBUX](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SBUX) 04/21 105C for $1.65 or less # Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today. This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0. For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals. The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV. # Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle * If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open. * Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. * I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in. * The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. New price movement may invalidate the original thesis. # FAQ - Because others have already asked. * These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? * No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. * Are you entering all these plays? * No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn. * You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean? * The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not. * Where are the crayons? I only see words. * Click the links above. * Have you back-tested this? * Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.76), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error) * What is the historical performance? * The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.88 with a 66% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 62% and 77%. (Stats as of 2023-02-28)
# Tickers of Interest - TL;DR **Gamma Max Cross** * [SE](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SE) 04/21 75P for $2.85 or less * [ASTS](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#ASTS) 04/21 5P for $0.25 or less * [SDOW](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SDOW) 04/21 27P for $1.65 or less * [LIN](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#LIN) 04/21 350P for $8.85 or less * [EGY](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#EGY) 04/21 5P for $0.35 or less **Delta Neutral Cross** * [SLV](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SLV) 04/21 18.5C for $0.60 or less * [GDX](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#GDX 04/21 27C for $1.15 or less * [EFA](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#EFA) 04/21 70C for $1.40 or less * [TEVA](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#TEVA) 04/21 10C for $0.20 or less * [XLI](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#XLI) 04/21 102P for $2.00 or less # Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today. This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0. For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals. The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV. # Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle * If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open. * Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. * I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in. * The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. New price movement may invalidate the original thesis. # FAQ - Because others have already asked. * These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? * No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. * Are you entering all these plays? * No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn. * You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean? * The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not. * Where are the crayons? I only see words. * Click the links above. * Have you back-tested this? * Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.76), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error) * What is the historical performance? * The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.88 with a 66% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 62% and 77%. (Stats as of 2023-02-28)
# Tickers of Interest - TL;DR **Gamma Max Cross** * [CLF](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#CLF) 04/21 22P for $1.25 or less * [BTU](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#BTU) 04/21 27P for $1.70 or less * [AA](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#AA) 04/21 50P for $2.20 or less * [SHEL](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SHEL) 04/21 60P for $0.90 or less * [TWLO](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#TWLO) 04/21 70P for $4.70 or less **Delta Neutral Cross** * [GOOGL](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#GOOGL) 04/21 95C for $2.95 or less * [EFA](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#EFA) 04/21 70C for $1.60 or less * [XLI](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#XLI) 04/21 102P for $2.15 or less * [KO](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#KO) 04/21 60C for $1.00 or less * [PARA](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#PARA) 04/21 22.5C for $1.15 or less # Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today. This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0. For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals. The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV. # Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle * If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open. * Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. * I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in. * The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. New price movement may invalidate the original thesis. # FAQ - Because others have already asked. * These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? * No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. * Are you entering all these plays? * No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn. * You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean? * The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not. * Where are the crayons? I only see words. * Click the links above. * Have you back-tested this? * Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.76), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error) * What is the historical performance? * The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.88 with a 66% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 62% and 77%. (Stats as of 2023-02-28)
# Tickers of Interest - TL;DR **Gamma Max Cross** * [MP](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#MP) 03/17 30P for $0.15 or less * [SDOW](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SDOW) 03/17 28P for $1.00 or less * [ZIM](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#ZIM) 03/17 23.5P for $1.25 or less * [COTY](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#COTY) 03/17 11P for $0.20 or less * [CLF](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#CLF) 03/17 21P for $0.55 or less **Delta Neutral Cross** * [SLV](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SLV) 03/17 19.5C for $0.25 or less * [EFA](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#EFA) 03/17 68.5P for $0.45 or less * [SNAP](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SNAP) 03/17 10.5C for $0.35 or less * [FCX](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#FCX) 03/17 41C for $1.30 or less * [USO](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#USO) 03/17 67.5C for $1.60 or less # Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today. This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0. For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals. The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV. # Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle * If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open. * Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. * I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in. * The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. New price movement may invalidate the original thesis. # FAQ - Because others have already asked. * These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? * No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. * Are you entering all these plays? * No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn. * You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean? * The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not. * Where are the crayons? I only see words. * Click the links above. * Have you back-tested this? * Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error) * What is the historical performance? * The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.88 with a 66% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 60% and 78%. (Stats as of 2023-01-31)
# Tickers of Interest - TL;DR **Gamma Max Cross** * [HBM](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#HBM) 03/17 5C for $0.15 or less * [UNM](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#UNM) 03/17 42.5P for $0.30 or less * [SARK](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SARK) 03/17 42P for $1.45 or less * [YOU](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#YOU) 03/17 30P for $1.40 or less * [WBD](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#WBD) 03/17 15.5P for $0.45 or less **Delta Neutral Cross** * [EFA](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#EFA) 03/17 70C for $0.30 or less * [SQ](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SQ) 03/17 76C for $3.35 or less * [RIVN](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#RIVN) 03/17 19C for $1.65 or less * [COIN](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#COIN) 03/17 60C for $4.55 or less * [CHPT](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#CHPT) 03/17 11C for $0.65 or less # Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today. This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0. For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals. The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV. # Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle * If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open. * Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. * I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in. * The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. New price movement may invalidate the original thesis. # FAQ - Because others have already asked. * These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? * No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. * Are you entering all these plays? * No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn. * You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean? * The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not. * Where are the crayons? I only see words. * Click the links above. * Have you back-tested this? * Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error) * What is the historical performance? * The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.88 with a 66% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 60% and 78%. (Stats as of 2023-01-31)
MSCI EAFE: Index Vs etfs (MXEA vs EFA/VEA) are so different Hopefully, I'm in the right sub, but I didn't feel appropriate to put in stocks, futures, or options). But anyway, here is my question. I am looking at the MSCI EAFE Index. I have found many etfs that use this as their benchmark, but it seems they are always very different from the actual index in terms of return, etc. I understand a few .% off or even 1%, but it's so far off sometimes showing the index is negative and the etfs are positive. Index:MXEA Futures symbol:MFS ETFs: EFA, VEA Hopefully, someone can help me make sense of this, please feel free to ELI5, or dumb it down if O am missing something totally obvious. I recognize it won't be a .1% for .1% but such a difference makes me wonder what's happening here Reason I ask: I currently operate synthetic longs on EFA for this but eventually looking into trading futures on this vs Synthetic longs but I am at the start of looking into all this and it doesn't make sense.
No. do not. stay away from /u/jakelera 's advice. it's horrible. there's no "theta" so to speak, but there is. read the white paper. do the math. that's what you didn't do the first time around. How do they leverage? why? how do their returns track? who does their financing? what is their long term position? SPY or VOO or QQQ or EFA or something, and go do your $200k job and don't get laid off
I’m in amazement that EFA is still outpacing SPY on the ytd. I wonder if it’ll hold up
There are a few reasons for this: SPY is overweight large cap growth which is especially sensitive to rising rates. The top 10 holdings in SPY make up 25% of the index. Eight of those are under their 200 SMA. This is going to be an unpopular statement but the bear market has ended outside of large cap growth. Equal Weight SPY (Ticker: RSP) and Equal Weight QQQ (Ticker: QQEW) are out performing their counterparts and both have gold crosses forming. The Dow and the Russell have both been leaders and new lows peaked months ago. The percentage of stocks above their 200 day MA are at their highest level in over a year. SPY and QQQ could chop around for months as the old leaders become blue chip stalwarts and the new leaders emerge further down the cap scale. As for the foreign indexes, this is all about a falling dollar. There's a fantastic opportunity brewing in these sectors for some really strong returns from VXUS EFA EEM, etc. In the last 21 years EFA has outperformed SPY 9 times. 7 of those years returns were positive for EFA. The two outliers are 2001 and 2022. Horrible years around the world for all asset classes. - Here's the numbers for EFA on those outperforming years: - 2003: 38.15% - 2004: 17.16% - 2005: 11.26% - 2006: 23.20% - 2007: 7.21% - 2012: 14.80% - 2017: 21.79% - Average Return: 19.08% The dollar (Ticker: DXY) has just started it's bear market (weekly death cross 10weekMA/40weekMA cross) These are trends that usually last months. I believe foreign stocks are going to strongly out perform this year. Domestically, homebuilders, materials, industrials, and even the semi indexes look good. Early on clean energy looked great but that trade has paused. Energy looks like it could get going again too. If you run a screen for the best performers since the bottoms in June and October you'll find lots of interesting names that all have stellar earnings and revenue. Personally, the chop and the rotation has me staying away from some of the names I like (they need conviction from big money to get going) but I am long a number of ETFs and I'm overweight foreign indexes. Good luck!
according to etfrc there is 70% over lap , so I am guessing not exactly the same thing. Also Vea has over 4k stocks and EFA has less than 1000 so there is also that you may need to factor in the equation. I also honestly don't know how much of a difference does not holding any Canadian stocks/ South Korean stocks. Off top of my head not having any exposure to Samsung may be a pretty big deal but I don't really know.
[Morningstar: The Do-It-Yourself Thrift Savings Plan](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/696047/the-do-it-yourself-thrift-savings-plan). $EFA trackers the MSCI EAFE Index.
# Tickers of Interest - TL;DR **Gamma Max Cross** * [EFA](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#EFA) 03/17 70P for $1.35 or less * [UAL](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#UAL) 03/17 50P for $2.60 or less * [LYFT](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#LYFT) 03/17 12.5P for $0.80 or less * [MRVL](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#MRVL) 03/17 40P for $2.75 or less * [USO](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#USO) 03/17 70P for $4.05 or less **Delta Neutral Cross** * [IWM](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#IWM) 03/17 186P for $5.40 or less * [BAC](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#BAC) 03/17 34P for $1.05 or less * [QCOM](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#QCOM) 03/17 120P for $4.80 or less * [ABNB](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#ABNB) 03/17 100P for $6.95 or less * [BX](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#BX) 03/17 85P for $4.95 or less # Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today. This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0. For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals. The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV. # Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle * If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open. * Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. * I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in. * The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. New price movement may invalidate the original thesis. # FAQ - Because others have already asked. * These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? * No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. * Are you entering all these plays? * No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn. * You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean? * The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not. * Where are the crayons? I only see words. * Click the links above. * Have you back-tested this? * Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error) * What is the historical performance? * The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.82 with a 67% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 58% and 79%. (Stats as of 2022-12-31)
If you can stomach the short term losses, a stock market index fund would probably be a good starting point. The US stock market (e.g. VOO fund) is what most investors, even outside the US, flock to. You can also try more diversified international funds (e.g. EFA fund includes all the "developed" stock markets that aren't the US and Canada.) I personally am not a huge fan of the international stock markets because they tend to have lower growth, but they do have generally higher dividend yields and are great for diversification. If you want much more consistent, but lower, returns, you could try something related to bonds/interest rates. European bond yields right now are still pretty low (e.g. 2% yield on Germany 10y bund) and may go higher, so you may want to aim for buying short-term securities.
Bro, stay away from options. Keep it simple and you’re going to do great. In that vein, wait until we have a substantial market pull back later this year, S&P 3500, or 3300. Dump all the money in at once into VTI, VXF, EFA and VWO and just sit on it. Two years from now you’ll be up 50%. Realize that 90% of people who play with options end up losing money, the only people who consistently make money are hedge funds and market makers. Just buy and hold. If you want to play around, use a paper trading portfolio where it’s just make believe so you can scratch that itch.
50% ITOT 20% IEMG 10% EFA 10% VTV 10% IJS value tilt and international diversification. Set it and forget it.
SPY SPY SPY IEFA / EFA Some banks & PSNY THAT'S my plan
VT VTI SPY IEFA EFA -> ETFs. Good luck.
# Tickers of Interest - TL;DR **Gamma Max Cross** * [EFA](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#EFA) 01/20 65.5P for $1.65 or less * [UPS](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#UPS) 01/20 180P for $6.10 or less * [KR](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#KR) 01/20 48P for $1.90 or less * [SPXS](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SPXS) 01/20 20P for $1.55 or less * [NAT](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#NAT) 01/20 3.5C for $0.25 or less **Delta Neutral Cross** * [MSFT](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#MSFT) 01/20 240P for $8.75 or less * [WBD](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#WBD) 01/20 10P for $0.45 or less * [DIS](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#DIS) 01/20 95P for $3.90 or less * [GOLD](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#GOLD) 01/20 16C for $0.50 or less * [JETS](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#JETS) 01/20 18.86C for $0.40 or less # Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today. This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0. For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals. The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV. # Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle * If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open. * Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. * I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in. * The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. # FAQ - Because others have already asked. * These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? * No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. * Are you entering all these plays? * No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn. * You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean? * The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not. * Where are the crayons? I only see words. * Click the links above. * Have you back-tested this? * Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error) * What is the historical performance? * The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.85 with a 67% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 49% and 72%. (Stats as of 2022-10-28)
# Tickers of Interest - TL;DR **Gamma Max Cross** * [BABA](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#BABA) 12/16 75P for $3.35 or less * [MRK](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#MRK) 12/16 105P for $2.15 or less * [MET](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#MET) 12/16 75P for $1.25 or less * [UNG](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#UNG) 12/16 21P for $1.95 or less * [RIO](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#RIO) 12/16 62.5P for $1.60 or less **Delta Neutral Cross** * [EFA](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#EFA) 12/16 64P for $1.20 or less * [QCOM](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#QCOM) 12/16 120P for $4.60 or less * [NEM](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#NEM) 12/16 45P for $1.85 or less * [ADBE](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#ADBE) 12/16 322.5C for $14.70 or less * [FDX](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#FDX) 12/16 170P for $4.30 or less # Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today. This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0. For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals. The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV. # Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle * If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open. * Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. * I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in. * The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. # FAQ - Because others have already asked. * These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? * No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. * Are you entering all these plays? * No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn. * You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean? * The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not. * Where are the crayons? I only see words. * Click the links above. * Have you back-tested this? * Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error) * What is the historical performance? * The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.85 with a 67% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 49% and 72%. (Stats as of 2022-10-28)
** Latest data show Largest borrow rate increases among liquid option names ** Theflyonthewall.com Fly On The Wall - Nov 15, 2022 $FLNG 5.90% +1.48 $PSNY 29.83% +0.56 $BILI 1.88% +0.47 $AREC 5.61% +0.36 Direxion 20 plus Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares $TMF 10.31% +0.36 $EFA $UBS
I'm lazy. I have 5 funds, and just roll with that. 50% ITOT for broad exposure, 20% EFA for developed markets ex-USA. 10% IJS for small cap, 10% for IEMG for emerging markets, and 10% for VTV to small cap value. I've proven to myself that I'm garbage at picking stocks, like most individual investors and so I just buy everything.
I have so much of my retirement in EFA because I actually don’t want to retire
Hello! Looking for advice on long-term investments. Background: early 30s, US, just switched careers (current income ~100k with potential to increase to 200k+ depending on performance). No significant debts at present but hope to buy a house in the next ~5 years (have the downpayment, but the market in my area is currently too competitive). My general investment goals are to save for retirement. Risk tolerance is moderate to high (I plan to work for another 20-25 years) Current portfolio: * Maxed roth IRA on years eligibile, backdoor roth other years * HSA (not max contributing) * Two employer-sponsored retirement accounts (one from prior, one from current employer), maximizing the employer match which is small. * Brokerage account which is where the majority of my investments are currently located. Current allocation is 45% domestic stock (IWB), 35% international stock (EFA), 15% bonds among all my accounts. I have about $10,000 to invest and am wondering how best to allocate that -- domestic? international? I buy the same funds over and over which I feel fine about but should I be diversifying further?
All these global / emerging market ETFs nearing COVID lows or worse. EEM and EFA look like they're accelerating their descent. VT below pre-covid high. EMB (emerging market bond etf) lowest since March 2009. Maybe this means we're nearing the bottom but I am inclined to think that US markets will be following these markets down the shitter.
I'm a 23-year-old who just started my first job and I've been putting away $1,000-$1,200 a month into $VTI. I'm considering putting around 20-30% of that in $EFA for international exposure and very good yield but I'm curious to hear some thoughts on putting a little into $EEM as well. I plan to aggressively go into equity only to stay aggressive while I can. I have about $18,000 in savings as well and will look to lump-sum it mostly into $VTI if we see more downside.
I’m diversifying into some $EFA maybe $EEM, the former has really great yield and I reckon in theory you’re getting international exposure at a “discount” and if the dollar starts retracting those should perform better.
Anyone else holding EFA puts into Jan
anyone else eyeing the volume on EFA Sep puts
I'm doing it inside of a 401k with limited fund options, but the fund I have will basically track the ishares EFA ETF
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,ULPIX&p=6 https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?GDXJ,JNUG&p=6 https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?IWM,TNA&p=6 https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?EFA,EFO&p=6
I ain’t mad. I’m pretty much all in EFA and TTE. I think the Europoors and Asia will fair pretty well compared to America.
Ngl pleasantly surprised how my EFA has been holding up lately
That’s right EFA. Don’t let spy get you feelin down
Grabbed some EFA $55 puts for next month.
Damn EFA holding up good. Maybe my retirement account won’t end up in shambles
Stock = equity It's normal to have fluctuations in value. It's uncommon but possible for a mostly equity portfolio to lose value over a decade. Stocks and most assets in general are down in recent months. https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,EFA,BIL,IEF,LQD,IAU&p=4